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North East Water Contents List of Figures 04 3.4 Integrated Water Management Planning 25 3.4.1 Leneva – Baranduda WOWCM Plan 25 List of Tables 05 3.4.2 Baranduda Fields 25 3.4.3 Bellbridge urban reuse concepts 25 List of Acronyms 06 3.4.4 One Resource – Yackandandah 25 3.5 Climate Change 25 Summary07 3.5.1 Adapting to a changing climate 25 Background07 3.5.2 Climate change mitigation 27 Definitions07 3.6 Bushfires 27 UWS approach and findings 08 3.7 Demand reduction and management 29 Actions and options 09 3.7.1 Community and education programs 29 1. Introduction 11 3.8 Use of water markets 30 1.1 Scope 11 3.8.1 Water share trading 30 1.2 Objectives of the UWS 11 3.8.2 Allocation trading 30 1.3 Principles for UWS development 11 3.8.3 Return flow credits 31 1.4 Approaches to decision making under uncertainty 12 3.8.4 Carryover 31 1.4.1 Scenario planning 12 3.9 Further studies 31 1.4.2 Adaptive management 12 4. Levels of Service 32 1.5 Decision-making framework for guiding action 13 4.1 North East Water’s agreed level of service 32 1.5.1 Water supply planning 15 4.2 North East Water’s minimum level of service 32 1.5.2 Drought Preparedness Plan 15 1.5.3 Decision-making framework to aid integration 15 5. Infrastructure Assessment 33 1.6 Strategy content 16 1.6.1 Catchment outlines 16 6. Demand Forecast 36 1.6.2 Water Systems Atlas 17 6.1 Demand uncertainty 36 1.6.3 Drought Preparedness Plan 17 6.1.1 Population growth 36 6.1.2 Residential water consumption trends 37 2. North East Water Region 18 6.1.3 Commercial and industrial consumption trends 38 2.1 Overview of systems and supply sources 18 6.1.4 Public open space demand 38 6.2 Methodology 39 3. Recent Experience 21 6.3 Current demand 40 3.1 Previous UWS development 21 6.4 Future system demand 41 3.2 Supply augmentation 21 6.4.1 Climate change 42 3.3 Droughts and floods 22 6.4.2 Future commercial and industrial demand 43 3.3.1 Millennium Drought – from 1997 to 2009 and recent recovery 22 6.5 Summary of demands 44 3.3.2 Drought response 24 3.3.3 Floods – 2010 and 2011 24 02 newater.com.au
North East Water 7. Supply Forecast 45 13. Community and Stakeholder Engagement 70 7.1 Methodology 45 13.1 Community engagement 70 7.1.1 Selecting scenarios 45 13.1.1 Outcomes 72 7.1.2 Selecting climate scenarios 46 13.2 Stakeholder engagement 73 7.1.3 Baseline yield and reliability 47 13.3 Aboriginal engagement 73 7.2 Supply uncertainty 48 7.2.1 Climate variability 48 14. References 74 7.2.2 Climate change projections 49 Appendix A – Description of Demand 7.2.3 Groundwater yield 50 Management Activities 75 7.2.4 Environmental requirements 50 Permanent water saving rules 75 7.2.5 Input data and model uncertainty 50 Restrictions 75 7.3 Forecast yield 50 Target your water use 75 8. System Performance Evaluation 53 Appendix B – Water Market Measures 76 8.1 Long-term assessment of performance 53 Regulated systems 76 8.2 Short-term assessment of performance 54 Unregulated systems 76 8.2.1 Outlook components 54 Access to entitlement 76 8.2.2 Outlook methods 54 Appendix C – Project Involvement 79 9. Analysing the Supply Demand Balance 56 Project control group 79 9.1 Provision of minimum and agreed level of service 56 Technical working group 79 Urban Water strategy project team 79 10. A pproaches to Provide Service Levels 59 Stakeholder project reference group 80 10.1 Classification of initiatives 59 10.1.1 Loss reduction 59 Glossary of Terms 81 10.1.2 Demand management 59 10.1.3 Using water markets 60 10.1.4 Supply augmentation 60 10.2 Options considered 61 11. E valuation and Prioritisation of Measures 62 12. Implementation 67 12.1 Short-term actions 68 Urban Water Strategy 2017 03
North East Water List of Figures Figure 1: Reliability of North East Water’s systems at present and under high climate change 08 Figure 2: North East Water’s Strategic Intent 13 Figure 3: Alignment within North East Water’s Strategic Intent 14 Figure 4: North East Water’s decision-making framework to ensure reliability of supply in the long and short term 16 Figure 5: North East Water’s area of operation and supply catchments 18 Figure 6: Long-term annual rainfall at Beechworth (station 082001) 23 Figure 7: Long‑term annual inflow to Lake Buffalo 23 Figure 8: Regional map showing systems least resilient and most vulnerable to climate hazards 27 Figure 9: Bushfire extents in North East Water’s supply region 28 Figure 10: Illustrative change in catchment runoff after bushfire 29 Figure 11: Typical factors influencing urban water demand (from Turner et al., 2010) 36 Figure 12: Historical residential consumption per connection for Wodonga 37 Figure 13: Historical commercial and industrial consumption for Wodonga 38 Figure 14: Clear water demand breakdown for Benalla 39 Figure 15: Example demand regression fitted to treated water data (Wahgunyah / Rutherglen) 40 Figure 16: Forecast demand to 2065 for Wahgunyah / Rutherglen 42 Figure 17: Process to select climate scenarios (DELWP 2016b) 46 Figure 18: Yield and demand over the planning horizon (example only) 53 Figure 19: Reliability and demand over the planning horizon (example only) 54 Figure 20: Forecast supply demand balance for Beechworth 58 Figure 21: Supply mix scenarios for Beechworth at 2065 58 Figure 22: Location and type of engagement activities undertaken across North East Water’s Region 71 04 newater.com.au
North East Water List of Tables Table 1: Priority actions for those systems where modelling resulted in shortfalls prior to 2040 09 Table 2: Overview of catchments 19 Table 3: Summary of supply system changes under WSDS 2012 and associated outcomes 21 Table 4: Summary of supply system changes that did not proceed under WSDS 2012 22 Table 5: Shifts in seasonal rainfall since 1997 at Beechworth 24 Table 6: Identification and description of climate hazards 26 Table 7: Summary of education activities completed (2012/13 to 2015/16) 30 Table 8: Summary of studies to support supply augmentations 31 Table 9: Planned or likely projects and / or upgrades over the next 25 years 34 Table 10: Treatment and distribution losses adopted for the purpose of demand forecasting for the UWS 41 Table 11: Climate change adjustment factors by river basin 43 Table 12: Summary of water and wastewater demand on North East Water services 44 Table 13: Vulnerability and resilience assessment criteria description 46 Table 14: Current climate baseline yield at 90% reliability and average annual demand for North East Water Systems 47 Table 15: Current climate baseline reliability and average annual demand for North East Water Systems 47 Table 16: Climate scenarios adopted for North East Water’s systems 48 Table 17: Period of water resource assessment to account for long-term climate variability 48 Table 18: Change in climate under future climate change scenarios relative to historical conditions 49 Table 19: Climate change impacts on temperature and PET 49 Table 20: Summary of forecast yield under different climate change scenarios for each of North East Water’s systems 51 Table 21: Forecast reliability of Ovens and King towns under climate change scenarios 52 Table 22: Provision of minimum and agreed level of service 56 Table 23: Approaches under operational status 59 Table 24: Summary of categories and options considered under each 61 Table 25: Project implementation risk category definitions 62 Table 26: Summary of demand, yield, additional water requirements and options for all North East Water Systems under high climate change scenario 64 Table 27: Summary of reliability for Wangaratta and the King towns 66 Table 28: Long-term actions to ensure reliability of supply across NEW systems 67 Table 29: Short-term actions as a result of supply demand balance assessment 68 Table 30: Short-term actions resulting from the process of undertaking the UWS 69 Table 31: Reach achieved through each engagement activity across the North East Water region 71 Table 32: North East Water customer values ranked by customers 72 Table 33: Common forms of entities to water entitlement used in Victoria 77 Table 34: Flexibility to trade water 78 Urban Water Strategy 2017 05
North East Water List of Acronyms Acronym Definition BE Bulk Entitlement CIV Commercial, Industrial and Vacant land customers. CWS Clear Water Storage DELWP Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning DHHS Department of Health and Human Services DPP Drought Preparedness Plan (previously the Drought Response Plan (DRP)) EPA Environmental Protection Authority Victoria ESC Essential Services Commission EWR Environmental Water Reserve GCM Global Climate Model / General Circulation Model GMW Goulburn-Murray Water IWM Integrated Water Management MDB Murray Darling Basin ML Megalitre (1 million litres) PET Potential Evapotranspiration RDV Regional Development Victoria RGS Regional Growth Strategy TWTP Trade Waste Treatment Plant UWS Urban Water Strategy (previously the Water Supply Demand Strategy) VIF Victorian in Future WOWCM Whole of Water Cycle Management WSDS Water Supply Demand Strategy WTP Water Treatment Plant WWTP Waste Water Treatment Plant Please note: This document has been reissued on 31 July 2017. 06 newater.com.au
North East Water Summary Background Definitions North East Water sought community and stakeholder feedback Level of Service is a measure of North East Water’s ability for this Urban Water Strategy (UWS) prior to the finalisation and to maintain a reliable water supply to meet the needs of its submission to the Minister for Water in March 2017. The UWS customers. Level of service objectives, for the purposes of this is a detailed 50 year supply and demand balance required by UWS, are defined by an agreed level of service and a minimum the Minister for Water under our Statement of Obligations. The level of service. UWS provides information to help with planning water supply The agreed level of service is defined as the long-term annual now and into the future. While it covers a 50 year time period, reliability of supply. North East Water aims to provide an agreed a detailed review is undertaken every five years to ensure the level of service of 90% which equates to restrictions occurring most up-to-date knowledge and trends are included. As such not more frequently than one year in 10 on average in the long in 2012 North East Water delivered its Water Supply Demand term. This reflects recent community expectations for long-term Strategy (WSDS), the previous version of this document. The reliability of supply based on historical experience and previous UWS considers supply and demand projections for all townships community consultation. supplied by North East Water under a range of climate change scenarios that have been determined by the State Government. The minimum level of service is the minimum volume of The strategy considers supply enhancement and demand water which North East Water has planned to provide customers management measures to maintain a reliable water supply. during a severe drought. It is the component of demand that can’t be restricted, and includes in-house demand, commercial The strategy also includes a number of and industrial demand. North East Water plans to provide this accompanying documents. volume under a repeat of the worst drought on record. • The Drought Preparedness Plan (DPP) – was revised in early 2017 and contains the measures required to provide Reliability of supply is used in this UWS to indicate whether minimum supply during drought years when it can become the agreed level of service is being met. It is a measure of how necessary to restrict demand. As part of this 2017 UWS, often water restrictions could be expected to occur on average in North East Water will work with local government and the long-term over a given climate sequence, with a given set of communities to prioritise which public open spaces and operating rules and infrastructure, and at a given demand level. sporting fields be kept green during drought periods. North If supply system behaviour is assessed using 100 years of climate East Water will recognise community sentiment and any and streamflow data, and restrictions occur in five of those years prioritised facilities in its future DPP. under current demand, then the system is said to have a current reliability of 95%. If supply system behaviour is re-assessed at • The Water Systems Atlas – provides an inventory of all urban a future, higher level of demand under a drier future climate water resources for each town including those resources scenario, then reliability may drop, because restrictions could be such as stormwater, surface and ground water that are often assessed as occurring more frequently. managed by local government and other organisations. • Catchment Outlines – provides more specific and detailed Yield is a measure of how much water can be supplied from information relating to the assessment of the water delivery a supply system at a specified level of reliability. It is calculated systems capacity to meet increased water demand and as the average annual demand supplied over the period of outlines options to ensure demand can be met until at assessment. There is usually a relationship between yield least 2040. and reliability, in that yield decreases as the desired reliability increases. So a given system may be able to supply 100 ML North East Water provides water and sewerage services to an at 90% reliability but only 80 ML at 95% reliability. Yield is estimated 110,000 people across North East Victoria. The region connected to the way a system is set up and run, so if system has been broken into seven river basins for the purposes of this infrastructure (e.g. pump size) or operating rules (e.g. restriction UWS and a catchment outline contains the relevant details for triggers) change then the yield changes. Yield also changes if the each system within that river basin. These catchment outlines are characteristics of the period of assessment changes, e.g. under complementary documents to this UWS document. climate change. Yield projections are directly compared with demand projections in this UWS to indicate the timing of future actions by North East Water to maintain target level of service standards. Where it is impractical to estimate yield, reliability of supply has been projected over the 50 year planning horizon. Urban Water Strategy 2017 07
North East Water UWS approach and trends. In Benalla, Wangaratta and Wodonga two demands were derived, one assuming the standard commercial and industrial findings growth assumption and another with a high growth assumption for the commercial and industrial portion of demand. Yackandandah’s water availability was also examined further by Analysis of current level of demands was undertaken by various posing a second high growth scenario, which represents a higher sectors; residential, commercial and industrial with an audit of growth than Victoria in Future predictions. This scenario is in public open spaces and an account of losses. A demand model response to the observed growth in new residential connections was fitted to recent consumption data to estimate current over the last decade. demands over a long climatic period, taking into account the Water availability was assessed using Resource Allocation influence of climate on water consumption. Population and Models (REALM) for each supply system, except for the Murray demand were then both projected out to the year 2065. River which was assessed using North East Water’s Murray Population projections were based predominantly on Victoria System Allocation Account Model, which utilises inputs from in Future (VIF) figures provided by the State Government, the MDBA/DELWP’s MSM-BIGMOD river system model. Model except where the recent trend in the number of property water layout and rules were updated as a first step to ensure they connections was widely different from VIF projections. The final were representative of the present situation. Both Walwa and demand projections included an allowance for future population Dartmouth do not constitute part of any REALM model, and growth, the influence of climate change on projected demands, assessment using streamflow data indicated that their water and commercial/industrial growth in major urban centres, as availability is very secure, thus no further assessment was carried informed by regional growth strategies and recent water use out for these two towns. Figure 1: Reliability of North East Water’s systems at present and under high climate change 08 newater.com.au
North East Water After an estimate of current yield and/or reliability, an assessment review when the next revision of the UWS is completed in five was carried out in line with the Guidelines for Assessing the years’ time. In addition to towns where level of service objectives Impact of Climate Change on Water Supplies in Victoria (DELWP, were projected to no longer be met under the do-nothing 2016b) to determine the potential impacts of future climate scenarios, Corryong and Harrietville were also placed on this list change for supply systems assessed as being at risk of those due to uncertainties, or significant changes to the modelling changes. This analysis resulted in all (low, medium, high and outcomes relative to the previous WSDS. post-1997 step change) climate scenarios being adopted for all systems except Benalla, Corryong, Harrietville, Mount Beauty and Myrtleford which were deemed to be of lower risk. Actions and options System yield and/or reliability was assessed at both 2040 and 2065 under the climate scenarios presented above – and Actions and options were broken into five categories: compared to forecast demand to assess the long-term supply • Demand management demand balance. The results of undertaking this comparison are • Loss reduction shown in the figure over the page which also shows North East • Water market measures Water’s region and systems, broken down by river basin. • Supply augmentation Analysis of the long-term supply and demand balance resulted • Drought preparedness measures in the Murray, Wangaratta, and King River towns being the only systems where level of service objectives could no longer be met Demand management and loss reduction are considered to be prior to 2040 under any climate change condition and without relevant to all systems, and should be integrated as business as intervention by North East Water. A second high growth scenario usual. A loss reduction program has been identified as a priority for the Yackandandah township meant that the agreed reliability action in the UWS and targets set for those towns where losses could not be met under any climate change scenario by the year are higher than desired (state wide average). 2026. It should be noted that the growth scenario was quite Water market measures and supply augmentation were only aggressive and represented a large number of allotments being considered for systems where level of service objectives were developed by the year 2040. This could be representative of the projected to no longer be met by 2040 under the do-nothing growth seen in this peri-urban centre in recent years. scenario, which as stated above, were the Murray system, Despite this, some systems outside of this group will be placed Wangaratta and the King River towns. Table 1 summarises the on watching briefs to ensure they undergo a complete modelling priority actions for these three systems. Table 1: Priority actions for those systems where modelling resulted in shortfalls prior to 2040 System Priority Actions Murray Implement purchasing strategy Results of the modelling carried out for this UWS should be integrated into the revised Murray purchasing strategy, to ensure that the agreed level of service can continue to be met for the Murray towns. Investigate Integrated Water Management (IWM) options to reduce demand or substitute potable consumption IWM options could be used to either reduce demand (such as installation of rainwater tanks) or to substitute potable consumption (such as reclaimed water irrigation or stormwater harvesting). The range of options under this banner is extensive and determination of an appropriate goal will need to be resolved. Urban Water Strategy 2017 09
North East Water System Priority Actions Kiewa Catchment – Modelling transfer of entitlement from Beechworth to Yackandandah Yackandandah and Further modelling can be undertaken to understand what additional Bulk Entitlement could be reliably Beechworth harvested from Yackandandah using the current supply source and infrastructure. This will be completed by using some of the Bulk Entitlement from Beechworth in the REALM model and assessing what affect it has on the yield for both Beechworth and Yackandandah. It may be found that an increase in the Bulk Entitlement for Yackandandah may not improve the amount of water which can be reliably harvested due to lack of inflows during certain times of the year. Groundwater investigation A number of desktop studies have previously been completed to explore opportunities to supplement supply to Yackandandah through the One Resource project. Whilst there appeared to be limited opportunities for groundwater in close vicinity of the township, the community preference was to utilise local water resources in preference to piping water from outside of the catchment. Further physical exploration work may be completed to confirm the likelihood of utilising groundwater to supplement existing surface water resources. It may be worthwhile to understand the groundwater options for Beechworth as part of this investigation. Review supplementary supply concepts covered in the One Resource project for Yackandandah and investigate Integrated Water Management (IWM) options to explore additional water resources to help meet potential increased future demand. Options will also address demand reduction measures or substitute potable consumption A body of work was completed between 2008 and 2012 as part of the One Resource project to understand how a number of alternative water supply options could help to supplement future demands in Yackandandah. It is proposed that these concepts are revisited in order to understand how North East Water might best address potential shortfalls in Yackandandah, should growth proceed at a rate flagged in the second scenario. Some of these options included, treated piped supply from Wodonga, raw water supply from the Kiewa River, construction of an off stream storage and development of groundwater. It is intended that some of this work could be utilised during the IWM forums to commence conversations on how North East Water might approach potential high residential growth in Yackandandah. The impact and effect of other options will be addressed such as demand reduction (such as installation of rainwater tanks) and potable substitution for outdoor areas (such as reclaimed water irrigation or stormwater harvesting). Wangaratta and Liaise with Goulburn-Murray Water (GMW) concerning the triggers and their impact on reliability King River Towns results It was found that the GMW triggers were very sensitive to changes in inflows under climate change. This has resulted in the model forecasting a reduction in reliability for both Wangaratta and the King River townships. It is recommended that North East Water and Goulburn-Murray Water work together to develop new triggers which are appropriate for climate change conditions. Continue to investigate and implement additional groundwater supply to not only augment existing supply but improve resilience at Wangaratta Restrictions can be delayed or a less severe level of restriction can be applied if North East Water supplements its water supply with groundwater. The bore at Kerr Street can be utilised at a rate of 3ML/d (limited by the capacity of package treatment plant). It presently has a licence to extract a maximum of 6ML/d. Works are underway to amend the licence agreement of this bore subject to the results of pumping tests and approval from Goulburn-Murray Water. The aim is to be able to extract enough water to meet Wangaratta’s unrestricted daily demand of 12.4ML/d. A more permanent treatment facility would be required to treat the higher volumes. An augmented groundwater supply would be able to permanently supplement current supply to meet and maintain 90% reliability under both the current and future climate change scenarios. Undertake a preliminary assessment of the potential for groundwater or raw water storage for Moyhu, Oxley and Whitfield. Should the negotiations to alter the restriction triggers for the King River townships be unsuccessful, further assessment would be required to understand the potential for groundwater to supplement supply to these towns, or supply augmentation in the way of raw water storage to address level of service issues. 10 newater.com.au
North East Water 1. Introduction The scope of the UWS is confined to communities that North North East Water’s Urban Water Strategy (UWS) seeks to East Water currently provides water and wastewater services identify the best mix of measures to maintain a balance to. Although it does not provide direction for unserviced areas between the demand for water and available supply in (e.g. small towns without a reticulated potable water service), urban supply systems now and into the future. The UWS: these opportunities are being explored through the outcomes • has a 50 year timeframe of North East Water’s Regional Growth Strategy (RGS) and Domestic Wastewater Management Plans. • contains actions which – consider the total water cycle, consistent with the principles of integrated urban water management; – support the development of resilient and liveable communities; 1.2 Objectives of the UWS – balance social, environmental and economic costs The objectives of the UWS are to facilitate efficient and effective and benefits; and urban water and related wastewater planning and investment – take account of the consequences and across North East Victoria, to: uncertainty associated with population growth, • ensure safe, secure, reliable and affordable water services climate change and climate variability. that meet society’s long-term needs. • is reviewed on a five-yearly basis in accordance • encourage the sustainable use of all water resources – with any guidelines issued by the Department of including rainwater, stormwater and recycled water and Environment, Land, Water and Planning (DELWP). rainfall-independent supplies in ways that are efficient and fit-for-purpose, whilst ensuring that public and environmental health are protected. • enhance the liveability, productivity, prosperity and environment of our cities and towns. 1.1 Scope • ensure that water needs of environmental assets are transparently considered. The UWS provides strategic direction for the planning and • provide for a transparent and rigorous decision-making management of water and related wastewater services at process, with clear roles, responsibilities and accountabilities, the whole of business level and for each individual system. which can adapt to the changing environment. According to the Statement of Obligations issued by the Minister for Water (DELWP, 2015) it should consider all aspects of the urban water cycle across a 50 year planning horizon and be consistent with the guiding principles of this Statement and any relevant Sustainable Water Strategy. It must include: 1.3 Principles for UWS • • proposed levels of service; measures to deliver sub-regional planning outcomes, development and integrate water cycle management with relevant The following principles have been applied in the development planning schemes; of the UWS. • options to facilitate efficient investments in projects across • Customers should be consulted on their willingness and the urban water cycle that optimise shared benefits and ability to pay for levels of service. avoidable costs; • Planning should be based on the best available information • measures to adapt to climate change; about current and future water resources. • measures to maintain a balance between the customer’s • Planning should be scenario-based, incorporating uncertainty demand for water and the supply of water in cities in supply and demand, and where possible should incorporate and towns; future economic development and land use planning. • options for the management of extreme event supply contingencies; and • options and trigger points for major augmentations. Urban Water Strategy 2017 11
North East Water • An integrated water management approach should be taken The demand and supply projection under these conditions forms when developing and assessing options. All potential water the baseline scenario for North East Water’s assessment of the sources and demand options require consideration while also future supply and demand balance. This enables North East meeting public health and environmental regulations. Water to assess how sensitive its current supply system is to • All servicing options should be assessed on a robust and future uncertainties. Supply options can also present differences transparent basis, examining the social, environmental and in resilience and ability to provide security of supply. This is taken economic costs and benefits and taking into account specific into consideration when assessing actions developed as part of system characteristics. the strategy. • Value of individual options to the overall supply-demand portfolio should recognise supply characteristics (e.g. reliability 1.4.2 Adaptive management and flexibility) as well as how much water they can produce. Adaptive management is a systematic process of continually • Pricing and markets should be used to help balance the improving management policies and practices by learning supply and demand for water, where it is efficient and from management actions and using that learning to improve feasible to do so. the next stage of management (Holling, 1978). Adaptive • Plans and strategies should be flexible to reflect additional management is required in water planning, as our knowledge of information and knowledge as it comes to hand, as well as future conditions is uncertain. This includes changes to natural changing circumstances. systems, the regulatory environment in which North East Water operates and shifts in community preferences and behaviour over time. 1.4 Approaches to decision The UWS, as a 50 year planning document that is reviewed on a five yearly cycle, inherently ensures an adaptive management making under uncertainty approach. Updated knowledge (i.e. changed customer behaviour, improved knowledge on climate change impacts etc.) is used to ensure planning and management approaches keep pace with improved knowledge levels. 1.4.1 Scenario planning This UWS recommends actions to collect further information in There are numerous uncertainties which can affect future supply systems where supply availability is uncertain. This defers demand and/or water availability in North East Victoria. Based potentially costly or unnecessary infrastructure investments until on the advice in DELWP’s UWS guidelines and Climate Change more is known about likely future supply system conditions. As Guidance (DELWP, 2016a and 2016b), North East Water has a result of reductions in per capita water use due to changes undertaken a combination of scenario planning and adaptive in customer behaviour long-term actions proposed in previous management approaches to address these uncertainties. WSDSs have been deferred or are no longer required in some supply systems. North East Water adopted a baseline demand and supply scenario over the next 50 years using: Being ready for these changes in conditions is important. • Victoria in Future (VIF) population projections for residential North East Water is committed to progressing its program of population growth1 investigations and design outlined in this UWS so that demand reduction and supply enhancement measures are ready to • anticipated changes in industrial/commercial demand in implement if future conditions change. Equally, North East Water individual supply systems will defer large capital expenditure where small improvements in • an adjustment for future climate change using a range of knowledge over time could have a large bearing on the timing climate change projections and magnitude of that expenditure. • a current-climate baseline using reference climate data from the post-19752 period 1 Where a system’s connection history presented a growth pattern that did not correlate well to VIF growth rates an alternative growth rate was adopted. 2 Adjusting the historical climate sequence to represent post-1975 conditions creates a long-term climate series that is representative of current climate at recent levels of greenhouse gas emissions (DELWP, 2016b) 12 newater.com.au
North East Water 1.5 Decision-making framework for guiding action Policy and strategy forming at North East Water is guided by the Strategic Intent. The Strategic Intent sets out a series of Ambition Statements for the five operational portfolios of People / Environment / Water Services / Assets and Infrastructure / Customers and Community, as shown below in Figure 2. Figure 2: North East Water’s Strategic Intent The UWS sits under the ‘Assets and Infrastructure’ ambition complementing the Regional Growth Strategy (RGS), Asset Management Strategy and Climate Adaption Strategy as shown in Figure 3. Urban Water Strategy 2017 13
North East Water Figure 3: Alignment within North East Water’s Strategic Intent 14 newater.com.au
North East Water 1.5.1 Water supply planning 1.5.2 Drought Preparedness Plan This section of the UWS outlines the role of North East Water’s North East Water updated its DPP in 2017 in parallel with the short and long-term water supply planning tools and how they update of its UWS. Common elements of the two plans include: interlink. North East Water has three key water supply planning • common supply system descriptions tools which form its integrated decision making framework. • a common set of demand models 1. UWS – a proactive tool that sets out water supply and • common level of service targets, and demand measures needed to manage water supply growth • use of the same water resource models to assess supply and climate change over the next 50 years. system performance. 2. Drought Preparedness Plan (DPP) – an operational tool that The DPP was prepared in accordance with DELWP’s Guidelines informs how to respond to water shortages if they arise in for the Development of Urban Water Strategies, which includes the immediate to short term; e.g. if inflows are worse than a section on DPPs. The DPP is required to incorporate past expected (includes the Drought Response Plan) Drought Response Plans as well as actions that North East Water 3. Water Outlook – short-term, forward-looking projections on will undertake to ensure that communities are prepared for the a scenario basis that help to identify when actions scoped eventuality of drought. The DPP is a separate supplementary either in the UWS or DPP need to be implemented to ensure document. For each supply system, the DPP discusses the water security. (That is, which “tools from the tool-box” short-term actions available during drought and provides triggers should be chosen for use.) for implementing those actions under future climate conditions. The UWS sets out when particular actions might be needed over a 50 year planning period to maintain minimum and agreed 1.5.3 Decision-making framework to levels of service. In contrast, the DPP sets out the short-term actions that could be needed during drought or severe water aid integration quality events in order to maintain the minimum level of service. The role of these three water planning tools in North East These short-term actions can include temporarily using alternative Water’s integrated decision-making framework for action supply sources, carting water or temporarily introducing water are shown in Figure 4. North East Water will develop an restrictions, as has occurred across North East Victoria during implementation plan as part of this UWS, which will identify drought. Drought response actions can be implemented quickly some actions beyond the timeline of UWS review (more than in response to an immediate need, but may not necessarily be the five years). Actions may be either deferred or brought forward most cost effective solution in the long term. depending on the climate conditions or changes in demand. North East Water’s UWS presents a timetable to implement When faced with a possible future water shortage, North East demand reduction and supply enhancement measures over the Water considers a number of factors before deciding whether next 50 years. When faced with a drought that threatens supply to implement a temporary drought response measure or a security, North East Water has a choice about whether to bring long-term measure identified in the UWS. These include: forward a planned long-term action, or to implement a short-term • Lead indicators of drought. Supply systems which can display action, thereby deferring a long-term action until it is more likely early warning signs of drought allow UWS response options to be utilised on an ongoing basis. By integrating the planning with long lead times to be implemented. For example, low processes for the UWS and DPP, North East Water is able to allocations for towns supplied from the River Murray are directly compare short- and long-term options to make the best generally known well in advance, whilst low river flows for decision about which actions to implement at any given time. towns supplied from local tributaries are sometimes only The Water Outlook demonstrates whether a supply system can known a few weeks in advance. provide sufficient water security in the short term, or whether • Duration of drought. Longer duration droughts allow UWS action needs to be taken. It therefore informs whether the response options with long lead times to be implemented. prioritised list of actions determined in the UWS is the most Forecast supply system behaviour and the Bureau of appropriate or whether actions should be brought forward Meteorology’s seasonal climate forecasts provide a broad or delayed. indication of likely drought duration. • Lead time for response action. An action in the UWS must be able to be implemented quickly if it is to be an effective drought response measure. If the lead time is longer than the time available until reliability of supply to customers is threatened, then the action will not help to maintain North East Water’s minimum level of service during the drought. • Cost of implementation. Depending on the likely duration of drought, the cost of implementing a UWS measure may be more or less than the cost of implementing a measure from the Drought Preparedness Plan. Urban Water Strategy 2017 15
North East Water Figure 4: North East Water’s decision-making framework to ensure reliability of supply in the long and short term • Evaluating and analysing the performance of systems in 1.6 Strategy content terms of our infrastructure and the supply and demand balance under differing future climate scenarios (Sections 5, Documentation prepared to support the UWS 8 and 9). development includes: • Applying North East Water’s decision-making framework to • UWS document (this document) classify and evaluate options to meet levels of service where • the catchment outlines for each of the seven systems required and summarising with a timeline for implementation for which North East Water is responsible (Sections 10, 11 and 12). • the Water Systems Atlas • Describing how North East Water engaged with customers, stakeholders, the Aboriginal Community and Traditional • the Drought Preparedness Plan Owners to finalise the Strategy (Section 13). This UWS has been prepared in accordance with the guidelines issued by DELWP (DELWP, 2016a). An overview of the process used to develop the UWS is summarised below: 1.6.1 Catchment outlines • Setting the context for the strategy by identifying North The UWS is complemented by a number of short reports termed East Water’s region and lessons from recent experience and catchment outlines. The origin of each townships water supply the key challenges likely to be encountered over the next determines which catchment outline it will be reported under. 50 years (Sections 2 and 3) Each catchment outline provides more specific and detailed • Analysing the supply and demand balance, including information relating to the assessment of the water delivery confirming levels of service, projected demand and projected systems capacity to meet increased water demand and outlines supply (Sections 4, 6 and 7). options to ensure demand can be met until at least 2040. 16 newater.com.au
North East Water 1.6.2 Water Systems Atlas The water systems atlas has been developed to present an: • Overview of infrastructure associated with each catchment and townships • Location and current water resources, alternative water sources (e.g. groundwater, stormwater, reclaimed water) and existing ‘off grid’ initiatives. This overview has been captured in a series of catchment and system maps together with some high level commentary. Some more detailed information on existing and potential alternative water use arrangements has been summarised in the accompanying tables. The purpose of the Water Systems Atlas is to highlight the diverse nature of each system and its resilience and inform further option analysis and integrated water projects going forward. 1.6.3 Drought Preparedness Plan The plan sets out the actions that will be needed to prepare for and respond to water shortages if they arise in the immediate to short term (e.g. if inflows are worse than expected under the assumptions on which Urban Water Strategies are based, or in response to water quality issues). The DPP describes how North East Water will prepare for and manage its systems during the following types of extreme events: • An extreme dry period • A water quality event of an intensity, magnitude and duration that is sufficient to render water unsuitable for treatment and supply. The plan incorporates actions that North East Water will undertake to ensure that communities are prepared for the eventuality of drought. This will be initially captured by outlining a process which North East Water proposes to undertake to capture community sentiment regarding maintaining community assets during times of drought. For example, maintaining minimum watering for significant community parks and gardens or sporting or recreational facilities which could deteriorate during severe water restrictions. The DPP details the management actions to meet critical human water needs during the above events. The DPP has been reviewed and updated as part of the Urban Water Strategy and will also be reviewed and updated within 12 months of either the lifting of any period of water restrictions or the augmentation of any water supply system. Urban Water Strategy 2017 17
North East Water 2. North East Water Region North East Water sources water from various locations which North East Water is a regional urban water are detailed in Table 2. The management of these sources corporation that: is undertaken by various bodies but predominantly by Goulburn-Murray Water. These water sources are used to supply • provides water and wastewater services to an water for multiple purposes including irrigation, rural water users, estimated population of 110,000 people across North hydropower generation, the environment as well as the urban East Victoria supply to towns under the responsibility of North East Water. • provides water services to 41 localities as shown in Figure 5 and 50,000 connections • produces up to 16,000 ML/yr of drinking water • through 21 water treatment plants3 provides wastewater services to 28 localities and 2.1 Overview of systems • nearly 45,000 connections treats approximately 9,800 ML/yr of wastewater and supply sources through 20 wastewater treatment plants The UWS is complemented by catchment outlines, covering • produces approximately 2,600 ML of water suitable the water supply and wastewater service for each system. An for re-use from its 16 reuse schemes. overview of the seven catchments highlighting water source, townships serviced, wastewater services and discharge point is shown in Table 2. A map of North East Water’s region broken into these systems is shown in Figure 5. Figure 5: North East Water’s area of operation and supply catchments 3 In 2017 Goorambat will be connected to the Murray system via a pipeline from Yarrawonga and will therefore no longer use its own water treatment plant, reducing the overall number of water treatment plants to 20. 18 newater.com.au
North East Water Table 2: Overview of catchments 4 Catchment Township serviced Water source Wastewater services Discharge point for water Broken Benalla Ryans Creek at Loombah Benalla Reuse Dam Kiewa Beechworth Nine Mile Creek Beechworth Reuse + Reedy Creek Mount Beauty West Kiewa River / AGL Mount Beauty – Reuse + Kiewa River Diversion Tunnel at Mt tertiary treatment Tawonga Beauty Partially serviced (pumped to Mount Beauty) Tawonga South Pumped to Mount Beauty Yackandandah Nine Mile Creek Yackandandah – lagoons Reuse Murray Bellbridge Murray at Lake Hume Bellbridge – lagoons Reuse Tallangatta Murray at Lake Hume Tallangatta – lagoons Reuse Wahgunyah Murray at Wahgunyah Pumped to Rutherglen Rutherglen Rutherglen – lagoons Reuse4 Wodonga Murray at Wodonga West Wodonga – Reuse + Murray River tertiary treatment Baranduda Pumped to Wodonga Bonegilla / Ebden Partially serviced, pumped to Wodonga Kiewa Pumped to Wodonga Tangambalanga Pumped to Wodonga Barnawartha Pumped to Wodonga Chiltern Chiltern – lagoons Reuse Springhurst No service Yarrawonga Murray at Lake Mulwala Yarrawonga – lagoons Reuse Tungamah Tungamah – lagoons Reuse St James No service Devenish No service Goorambat No service Bundalong Bundalong – lagoons Evaporation Eskdale Mitta Mitta at Eskdale No service 4 Reuse includes agricultural and horticultural irrigation as well as urban public open space irrigation Urban Water Strategy 2017 19
North East Water Catchment Township serviced Water source Wastewater services Discharge point for water Ovens Bright Ovens at Freeburgh Pumped to Porepunkah and King Porepunkah Porepunkah – lagoons Reuse5 + Ovens River Wandiligong No service Harrietville Ovens at Harrietville No service Myrtleford Buffalo Creek at Myrtleford – lagoons Ovens River Myrtleford Wangaratta Ovens at Wangaratta Wangaratta – lagoons + Reuse6 + Reedy Creek / phosphorus removal Yellow Creek Glenrowan Glenrowan mechanical WWTP Reuse Moyhu King at Moyhu Moyhu – lagoons Oxley King at Oxley Partly serviced – pumped to Wangaratta Whitfield King at Whitfield No service No service N/A Milawa – pumped to Oxley Mitta Mitta Dartmouth Mitta Mitta at Dartmouth Dartmouth – lagoons Mitta Mitta River Upper Murray Walwa Upper Murray at Walwa Lagoons Reuse Nariel Corryong Nariel Creek at Corryong Lagoons Reuse Cudgewa No Service 5 6 Table 2 also shows the source of water supply for each of the systems as well as how effluent is discharged from the wastewater treatment plant. Details specific to each system can be found in the respective catchment outline including: • bulk water entitlements • catchment profile • storage information • water and wastewater treatment processes • current and future demand and capacity of treatment plants and • delivery and collection infrastructure 5 Reuse used for only urban public open space irrigation 6 Reuse used for agricultural and horticultural irrigation, urban public open space irrigation and industrial use. All other reuse is for agricultural and horticultural irrigation purposes only. 20 newater.com.au
North East Water 3. Recent Experience year in its annual report. The current UWS is a continuation of North East Water’s water supply systems have been this ongoing water resource planning that is being undertaken tested by a wide spectrum of climatic conditions since by North East Water. implementing its first WSDS in 2007, which has included A full review and update of the UWS is scheduled to occur every one of the driest and wettest years on record. This five years, which gives North East Water the opportunity to experience has allowed North East Water to test previous adjust and refine its course of action if conditions change from assumptions and as a result North East Water has a currently anticipated. higher level of certainty around appropriate drought response trigger levels and actions. 3.2 Supply augmentation 3.1 Previous UWS The 2012 WSDS identified a number of augmentation options that have been implemented or where implementation will development have commenced prior to the finalisation of this UWS. Supply augmentations and associated outcomes are summarised in Table 3. North East Water’s previous UWS (then titled a Water Supply Demand Strategy – WSDS) was prepared in 2012. Since that In addition to this, the 2012 WSDS also identified a number of time, North East Water has been tracking progress against the supply augmentation measures that did not go ahead, either actions proposed in that strategy, with an update provided each because the situation was re-assessed or because the need for augmentation was delayed. These are shown in Table 4. Table 3: Summary of supply system changes under WSDS 2012 and associated outcomes Community Change in system configuration or Key outcomes Status change in system management Goorambat Supply augmented with pipeline from • increase supply reliability To be constructed in 2017 Devenish • reduced water quality risks Bright, Design of 520 ML off stream storage • increased supply reliability Delivered 2013–2016 Porepunkah, with proposed amendment of Bulk • reduced water quality risks Wandiligong Water Entitlement. • increased environmental passing flows for Ovens River Wangaratta Augmentation of Ovens River supply • increased supply reliability Phase 1 to provide current source with ground water supplies. • alternative source for use in low supply reliability needs to be (Phase 1) flow conditions finalised 2017/18 Supply augmented with off stream • increased supply reliability Phase 2 – development of storage or groundwater (Phase 2) • increased system resilience long-term supply security plan during 2018–2023 period Harrietville Offtake physically moved from • increased supply reliability Delivered 2013 Simmons Creek to Ovens River East • avoid issues of low flow and Branch passing flow requirements Urban Water Strategy 2017 21
North East Water Table 4: Summary of supply system changes that did not proceed under WSDS 2012 Community Original proposed change Reason not implemented Status Corryong Supply augmented with either off- Corryong supply deemed secure Action removed stream storage or groundwater Harrietville Supply augmented with either off- Move of offtake eliminated the Emergency supply bore to stream storage, water carting or need for augmentation option improve system resilience groundwater being investigated for delivery in 2017/18 3.3.1 Millennium Drought – from 1997 to 3.3 Droughts and floods 2009 and recent recovery Droughts and floods are a natural feature of the climate in Long-term rainfall behaviour for a representative rainfall gauge North East Victoria. Major droughts lasting several years have (at Beechworth) in North East Water’s supply area is shown occurred in the early 1900s (the Federation Drought), from the in Figure 6. The figure indicates that North East Victoria has mid‑1930s to mid‑1940s (the World War II Drought) and the experienced several extended periods of below average rainfall Millennium Drought recently experienced from 1997–2009. in the past, notably during the droughts mentioned above. Severe single year droughts such as in 1967/68 and 1982/83 In Victoria, the 13 year period from 1997 to 2009 was have also occurred at regular intervals. These droughts have particularly dry with rainfall totals markedly below average. At been interspersed with floods, such as that recently experienced Beechworth, located centrally within North East Water’s supply in September and October 2016. Other significant flood events region, the average annual rainfall in the 10 year period from occurred in February 1898, March 1906, April 1959, March 1999 to 2008 was 13% less than the long-term average. This 1985, December 1988 and February 2011. is similar to the reduction in rainfall over a comparable ten year In addition to the need for significant water shortages and period during the World War II drought (1936–1945). restrictions, drought and floods can also impact upon water quality which can affect the capacity to deliver safe drinking water. General water quality risks at a system level have been identified in respective catchment outlines. North East Water’s Drinking Water Quality Risk Management System addresses water quality risks in more detail. Flood in particular can impact on wastewater treatment plants, causing flooding and the need to release effluent in addition to regulated releases and sewer spills. 22 newater.com.au
North East Water Figure 6: Long-term annual rainfall at Beechworth (station 082001) While the magnitude of the reduction in average rainfall over several years of above average rainfall over the Millennium this 13 year period was not greater than in earlier drought Drought, only one year of above average streamflow was periods, the corresponding impact on stream flows was much recorded over this period. Streamflows over the period July 1997 worse than previously observed. Figure 7 shows the long-term to June 2009 were in the range of 30% to 40% below the streamflow for a representative site (inflow to Lake Buffalo) in long‑term average for the region. North East Victoria. It can be seen in this figure that despite Figure 7: Long‑term annual inflow to Lake Buffalo Urban Water Strategy 2017 23
North East Water There are a number of key differences between the Millennium autumn rainfall declined by 27%, whilst rainfall at other times Drought and previous drought events. The Millennium Drought of the year only reduced by 5–9%. The inclusion of post was characterised by a sharp reduction in autumn rainfall. Millennium Drought data (the fifth column in Table 5) shows Autumn rainfall has been found to be important across Victoria that autumn rainfall in the post-1997 period has remained for wetting catchments to generate streamflow in the following in deficit relative to pre‑1997 long-term averages, and that Winter/Spring period (DSE, 2009). The shift in seasonal rainfall summer rainfall has increased significantly as a percentage above at a representative rainfall gauge in North East Victoria (at pre‑1997 historical average. Beechworth) is shown in Table 5, where it can be seen that Table 5: Shifts in seasonal rainfall since 1997 at Beechworth Season Seasonal average rainfall (mm) Change in season Seasonal average Change in season average (%) rainfall (mm) average (%) 1900/01 to 1996/97 1997/98 to 2009/10 between recent (to 1997/98 to 2015/16 between most 2010) and historic recent (to 2016) rainfall and historic rainfall Summer 165 155 –6% 190 +15% Autumn 228 168 –27% 194 –15% Winter 345 313 –9% 322 –7% Spring 260 246 –5% 241 –7% Total 998 882 –12% 947 –5% Relative to earlier droughts, the reduction in streamflow in • Several of North East Water’s supply systems make provision the Millennium Drought was further exacerbated by higher for the use of alternative water supply sources: temperatures across Victoria. Demand for water from other – At Dartmouth, the supply source was changed from Lake water users upstream of some of North East Water’s offtakes Tabor to the Mitta Mitta River due to poor water quality may have also been higher than in the past, with possible conditions caused by bushfires and subsequent algae. increased interception of runoff in farm dams and diversion of – At Mount Beauty, the supply source was changed as water for irrigation. required from the regular Kiewa River source to the West Kiewa River and Simmonds Creek sources. This occurs 3.3.2 Drought response when AGL energy turns off the aqueduct system for maintenance which results in poor water quality due to North East Water’s Drought Response Plan (DRP) (2012) was only high alkalinity. activated on the following three occasions during the preceding – At Bright, the supply source was changed from the Ovens five years: River source to the Bright groundwater bore during • 2011–12: Bundalong Stage 4 restrictions (Bundalong periods of poor water quality in the river. This typically has since been connected to the Yarrawonga water occurred several times a year. The new Bright off River supply system) storage and WTP mitigate the risk of poor water quality. • 2012–13: Bright – public awareness trigger reached (new – At Harrietville, the supply source was changed a number Bright off-river storage and water treatment plant (WTP) of times between the Simmons Creek and Ovens River have since been completed) sources as a resilience mechanism due to poor water • 2013–14: Bright – public awareness trigger reached quality. The Simmons Creek source has now been decommissioned. Key emergency and contingency actions taken during extreme water shortages included: – At Wangaratta, groundwater was used as a resilience mechanism to supplement the Ovens River source and at • North East Water temporarily supplemented supplies from times was the sole source during periods of poor water alternative sources at several of its towns when regular sources quality caused by fires and flooding. of water were physically unavailable or of reduced quality. Water was carted during periods which ranged from a single day to a number of weeks. This occurred not as a result of 3.3.3 Floods – 2010 and 2011 water resource availability but as a resilience mechanism when: In contrast to recent trends, the summer of 2010/11 was the – water quality was impacted by bushfires at Harrietville, and wettest in Victoria since records began. Almost two-thirds of the – heavy rainfall resulted in periods of dirty water at Moyhu State received rainfall with totals above the long-term average in and Oxley. 2010. The wet conditions experienced in 2010/2011 replenished 24 newater.com.au
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