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Image: iStock
10 September 2020
© Council on Energy, Environment and Water 2020
India is undergoing an energy transition from fossil-based to clean energy. Evidence-based
decision-making can accelerate the process.
CEEW Centre For Energy Finance’s Market The handbook attempts to comment and answer on
Handbook aims to help key investors, executives and some critical questions such as:
policymakers with evidence-based decision-making by:
1. What is India’s generation capacity and energy mix?
• Identifying and analysing trends critical to India’s energy 2. What are the key trends in renewable energy (RE) tariffs?
transition
3. What is the current situation of the discom payment delay
• Presenting data-backed evidence based on the most situation?
relevant indicators
4. How have the power market reforms progressed?
• Connecting the dots and presenting a short-term market
5. What are key trends in the electric vehicles (EV) and energy
outlook
storage markets?
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Generation Capacity And Energy Mix 4
Coal Phase-Out 6
RE Auctions 7
Discom Payables 8
Power Markets 9
Policy and Regulatory Developments 10
Renewable Energy Finance 11
Energy Storage 14
Image: iStock
Electric Mobility 15
Annexures 17
About Us 19
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4
Installed capacity mix* (GW)
100%
Takeaways & Outlook
10% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 13%
15.5 18% 20% 22%
90% 18.5 24.5 27.5 29.5 31.7 38.8 22% 23% 23% 23% 24%
57.3 69.0 77.6 79.4 82.6 84.4 86.8 87.7
17% 15% 14%
80% 23% 22% 20% 18%
14% No noticeable gas/diesel, nuclear and
36.9 37.6 39.5 40.5 41.3 42.8 13%
39.0
44.5 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 12% hydro capacity additions since FY18.
70% 45.3 45.4 45.4 45.4 45.4 45.7 45.7
60% Coal/lignite capacity grew at a compounded
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% in the last
50%
decade. RE capacity grew at 19% (off a
40% relatively low base of 15.5 GW in FY10) for
56% 58% 60% 62% 62% 59% 57% 56% 56% 56% 56% 55% 55%
the same period.
30% 53% 54% 185.2
130.2 145.3 164.6 192.2
84.2 93.9 112.0 191.2 200.7 200.7 203.2 205.3 205.3 205.4
20% Here onwards, RE capacity will need to
grow at a CAGR of 16% to reach the 450 GW
10%
target by 2030.
0%
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1 FY20 Q2 FY20 Q3 FY20 Q4 FY20 Q1 FY21 Quarterly RE capacity additions have slowed
Coal/Lignite Gas/Diesel Nuclear Hydro Renewables*
down in the last four quarters. Pace of grid
scale solar & wind capacity additions are by
Source: Central Electricity Authority. *Does not include solar roof-top capacity (2.8 GW as of June 2020) and large a function of auctions held in the
RE capacity addition (MW) preceding 12-24 months.
5,000 Solar (grid-scale and rooftop) contributed
443 nearly 84% of the RE capacity addition in
4,000
NA
Q1 FY21.
28 188
375 488
3,000 676 277
Despite Covid-19, 12 GW of solar and 400
845 MW of solar–wind hybrid capacity was
254 78 55
2,000 NA 841 391 sanctioned/auctioned in Q1 FY21. This is
NA 28 0
0 348 302
247
322
30 2,968 463 equivalent to an impressive 14% of India’s
2,189
1,000
1,371 1,229
1,692 1,426
1,878 160 28 aggregate installed RE capacity of 87.7 GW.
999 717
0
Q1 FY19 Q2 FY19 Q3 FY19 Q4 FY19 Q1 FY20 Q2 FY20 Q3 FY20 Q4 FY20 Q1 FY21
Solar (grid-scale) Wind Small hydro Bio-power Solar (roof-top)
Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy.
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5
Source-wise daily generation (Q1 FY21)
Takeaways & Outlook
4,500 Highest RE share Lowest RE share 18%
Total generation for Q1 FY21 was down by
4,000 16.0% on 28th May 8.8% on 30th June 16% 15.9% from Q1 FY20 due to the Covid-19
nationwide lockdown.
Energy generation (million kWh)
3,500 14%
• April: Down by 23.8%
3,000 12%
• May: Down by 14.6%
2,500 10%
• June: Down by 9.8%
2,000 8%
• Total Q1 FY21: Down by 15.9%
1,500 6%
Fall in total generation mainly attributable
1,000 4% to coal/lignite (down 24.2% vs Q1 FY20).
500 2% From a share of total generation perspective,
RE and hydro are on the rise, whereas
0 0%
coal/lignite is on a decline.
2-Jun
4-Jun
6-Jun
8-Jun
1-Apr
3-Apr
5-Apr
7-Apr
9-Apr
11-Apr
13-Apr
15-Apr
17-Apr
19-Apr
21-Apr
23-Apr
25-Apr
27-Apr
29-Apr
1-May
3-May
5-May
7-May
9-May
10-Jun
12-Jun
14-Jun
16-Jun
18-Jun
20-Jun
22-Jun
24-Jun
26-Jun
28-Jun
30-Jun
11-May
13-May
15-May
17-May
19-May
21-May
23-May
25-May
27-May
29-May
31-May
RE share %
• RE: Share up from 9.9% to 11.8%
Coal Hydro Solar Gas/Naptha/Diesel Nuclear
• Hydro: Share up from 10.0% to 12.1%
Wind Lignite Biomass/Other RES RE share %
• Coal/lignite: Share down from 73.1% to
RE share snapshot 65.9%
Q1 FY19 Q1 FY20 Q1 FY21 With a high wind season extending till July–
August, relatively less variable (vs wind) solar
RE share % Day RE share % Day RE share % Day
insolation across the year, and upcoming RE
capacity addition, RE’s share of total
Highest 16.2% 12 June 2018 15.3% 17 June 2019 16.0% 28 May 2020
generation expected to remain high in Q2
Lowest 6.2% 3 April 2018 7.4% 2 April 2019 8.8% 30 June 2020 FY21.
Average 9.0% NA 9.9% NA 11.8% NA
Source: POSOCO. Note: RE technologies include solar, wind, biomass, waste to energy and small hydro and does not include rooftop solar and hydro generation.
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6
Coal capacity added versus retired (MW)
3,652
Takeaways & Outlook
3,300 Although still net positive (additions less
retirement), the pace of new coal capacity
addition has declined sharply.
2,130 2,100 With INR 1,06,908 crore of power sector loans
turning non-performing (per RBI as of
1,3201,230 September 2019), incremental bank lending
860 895 to the sector faces challenges. Many banks
705 may also be approaching statutory limits on
270 power sector exposure.
110 214 30 100 45 0 0 0
While data for RE loan book component of
Q1 FY19 Q2 FY19 Q3 FY19 Q4 FY19 Q1 FY20 Q2 FY20 Q3 FY20 Q4 FY20 Q1 FY21 aggregate power sector exposures is not
readily available, anecdotal evidence
Capacity added Capacity retired suggests that RE loans as a category have
Source: Central Electricity Authority performed much better than power sector
as a whole.
Coal financing by Power Finance Corporation (PFC)/ PFC/REC continues to back coal projects in
Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) (INR cr) India, although their share in its loan book has
started to decline (from 63% in Q2 FY19 to
20000 65% 58% in Q4 FY20). To compensate, exposure to
10,955 63% 63% RE and hydro projects has increased, which
5,992 62%
10000
61% 2,479 61% 3,498 2,740 now account for 6% and 5% of its loan book,
1,488
respectively.
0 60%
Q1 FY19 Q2 FY19 Q3 FY19 Q4 FY19 Q1 FY20 Q2 FY20 Q3 FY20 Q4 FY20
With declining RE plus storage tariffs (already
-10000 -1,538 60% reached 4.04 INR/kWh), operational coal fleets
59% 58%
-12,012 are expected to come under increasing
-20000 55% pressure.
Change in gross loan assets for conventional generation (excludes large hydro and renewables)
% share of conventional generation in total gross assets
Source: PFC investor presentations; figures are derived from the same. Note: Sector-wise break up of PFC loan asset data unavailable for Q1 FY20.
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7
Key auction results Capacity Bid spotlight: SECI round-the-
Least tariff discovered (INR/kWh)
(last 6 months) allotted (MW) clock (RTC-I), 400 MW
Pan-India (SECI) solar, Tariff and winner Takeaways & Outlook
Tranche-IX, 2,000 MW (June 2,000 2.36
2020) • Tariff: INR 2.90/kWh (first year) with an annual All time low RE tariff (2.36 INR/kWh) was
Pan-India (SECI) solar-wind- escalation of 3%. Levelised cost of energy discovered in SECI Tranche-IX, with a 2,000
storage, RTC-I, 400 MW (May 400 2.90 (LCOE) of INR 3.60/kWh
2020)
MW bid, owing to low entry barriers and high
• Winner: ReNew Power competition between participants, backed by
Pan-India (NHPC) solar, 2,000 foreign investors.
2,000 2.55
MW (April 2020) Key provisions
India’s first hybrid RE bids concluded with
Gujarat (GUVNL) solar, 500 • Round-the-clock energy supply with a tariffs of 6.12 INR/kWh (LCOE of 4.04
350 2.61
MW- VII (March 2020) combination of solar, wind, and storage INR/kWh) for assured peak power supply for
technologies. Provision to locate solar and wind six hours and 2.90 INR/kWh (LCOE of 3.60
Maharashtra (MSEDL) solar,
350 2.90 plants at different locations INR/kWh) for round-the-clock energy supply,
500 MW (March 2020) with a minimum 80% CUF requirement.
• Minimum monthly and yearly capacity
Pan-India (SECI) solar, utilization factor (CUF) requirements of 70%
Government actions include the removal of
Tranche-VIII, 1200 MW 1,200 2.50 and 80%, respectively
(February 2020) tariff caps on solar and wind auctions to
• Excess energy generation may be sold in open
improve investor sentiment.
Maharashtra (MSEDL) solar, markets with the facility of additional
Agro-feeder scheme, 1350 MW 283 3.28 connectivity
(February 2020)
The implementation of the safeguard duty
(SGD) may not impact solar tariffs, as the
Assam (APGCL) solar, 70 MW Analysis duty lapses in July 2021. Module
70 3.99
(February 2020) procurement for new projects can be timed
• Bid allows significant oversizing of the project to take place once the duty lapses.
UP (UPNEDA) solar, 500 MW
184
and does not require firm power.
3.17
(February 2020)
• As per a CEEW-CEF analysis, the project would With increasing RE share and discoms facing
require 1,200 MW wind and 300 MW solar and integration challenges, we expect more
Pan-India (SECI) solar-wind-
storage, Peak power supply, 1,200 6.12 around 1.0–1.5 GWh of energy storage. hybrid auctions going forward, with firm,
1,200 MW (January 2020)
• In addition, such capacity oversizing is expected flexible, and dispatchable RE procurement.
Pan-India (SECI) solar, to lead to monthly CUFs of 150–180% during
Manufacturing, 7,000 MW 12,000 2.92 the high wind season (May–July) and 70–72%
(January 2020)
CUF in September–October.
Source: SECI and state renewable agencies.
SECI = Solar Energy Corporation of India; RTC = Round the clock
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8
Amount overdue by discoms to Discom payable and receivable days for RE rich states Takeaways & Outlook
power producers (INR cr)
250
As of June 2020, the amount overdue from
90 days
RJ discoms was INR 1,30,895 crore,
June 2020 130,895 UK
UP representing an increase of 71% compared
May 2020 124,916 AP to June 2019.
↑ 30% 200
April 2020 113,130 There has been a 30% spike in overdues in
Power purchase payable days
TS* just the three-month period since March
March 2020 105,600 2020.
February 2020 108,290 150
KA Discoms continue to struggle with
January 2020 106,232 TN BH
ensuring timely collections. The Ministry of
↑ 71% Power (MoP) allowed a three-month
December 2019 103,843 CG moratorium for payments to conventional
100
90 days power producers (March 2020) but no
November 2019 101,441
GJ* relaxation for payments to RE developers.
October 2019 101,443 AS KL*
PJ MP Highest payment delays in Rajasthan, Uttar
September 2019 89,756
50 MH Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Andhra Pradesh,
HR*
Telangana, Karnataka, Bihar, and Tamil
August 2019 86,129 Nadu.
July 2019 82,227 0 With MoP’s moratorium on payments due to
June 2019 76,701 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 conventional power producers, the overdue
Power sale receivable days amount may increase at a higher rate in
the coming months.
Source: PRAAPTI portal (Based on voluntary disclosure Source: UDAY portal (Based on data disclosed by discoms as of 31st Mar 2020.
from power producers). *Data not available for these states; values derived from 2018-19 financial reports). The Electricity (Amendment) Bill 2020
mandating that discoms maintain adequate
payment security may facilitate timely
INR 90,000 crore liquidity package was announced in May 2020 to provide a payment to power producers, if passed in
temporary relief to electricity discoms in paying to power producers. Since then, parliament.
the overdue amount has increased to INR 1,30,895 crore as of June 2020.
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Power supply position (Peak demand, GW) 180.5 182.5 REC market prices (IEX, INR/MWh)
183.5 183.7 2,400
177.4 176.8 177.4 176.8 181.0
182.5 2,000
2,000 2,000 2,000
133.3 132.8 1,500 1,600 Takeaways & Outlook
1,300 1,000
1,000 1,000 1,000 Peak power and energy demand are
expected to recover to FY20 levels in the
following quarter as the Covid-19 lockdown
2020 2019 2020 2019 is lifted.
April May June April May June
It is evident that the REC market is maturing,
Solar REC price Non Solar REC price with a proposed market-based price
Peak demand Peak demand met discovery system (removal of floor price by
Source: POSOCO Source: Indian Energy Exchange (IEX). CERC). As such, REC prices are expected to
Peak demand declined considerably by 25% in April 2020 (as compared REC prices have been declining from Q1 FY20 to Q1 FY20 owing reduce in the coming months.
to April 2019) due to the Covid-19 nationwide lockdown. Despite a recovery to lower demand following the Covid-19 lockdown. The buy to
in peak power demand in May 2020, the energy demand was still lower by sell bid ratio declined from 3.4 in Q1 FY19 to 1.1 in Q1 FY20. Short-term electricity prices (in both the day-
14% as compared to May 2019. ahead and real-time spot markets) have
Real time spot market snapshot (IEX) been at record lows, at 2.35 INR/kWh and
Day ahead spot market snapshot (IEX) 2.22 INR/kWh, respectively. This is expected
3.51 3.53 Volume Price to result in an increase in the share of
3.33 4.00
(million kWh) (INR/kWh)
10,000
short-term electricity procurement in the
overall electricity procured by discoms.
Max (Daily) 36.1 3.03
5,000
2.57 2.00 With the introduction of real-time markets,
2.47 2.35 Min (Daily) 3.4 1.56
3,772 4,207
’gate closure’ to segregate the day-ahead and
4,005 real-time markets, and system balancing
3,692 Total/Average 515.5 2.22
5,574 (ancillary services), overall power purchase
0 4,174 0.00 (Monthly)*
April May June cost may see a reduce. Future rollouts of
*Monthly figures since real time market commenced in the market-based economic dispatch and
Volume (2020), Million units Volume (2019), Million units last month of Q1 2020 (June) ancillary services market are envisaged to
Price (2020), INR/kWh Price (2019), INR/kWh further accelerate this reduction.
Source: IEX. Source: IEX.
Average day-ahead spot market prices declined by 29% in Q1 FY21 The real-time market with trading in 15-minute time blocks commenced
(compared to Q1 FY20), with an overall volume increase of 12%, from 1 June 2020. The average price discovered was 2.22 INR/kWh.
owing to lower electricity demand due to the Covid-19 lockdown.
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Draft Electricity (Amendment) Creation of FDI and project
Real-time market goes live
Act of 2003 development cells in MNRE Takeaways & Outlook
• Establishment of a central body, • With effect from 1 June 2020, the • Creation of FDI cell in the Proposed amendments to the Electricity Act
Electricity Contract Enforcement real-time electricity market went MNRE for processing FDI of 2003 broadly aim to improve contract
Authority, to resolve PPA related live. proposals from countries that enforcement, mitigate offtake and
disputes within 120 days. share land borders in India. payment risk for RE developers, promoting
• IEX and PXIL work in
• Selection of ERC members to be coordination with NLDC on trade • Creation of a project renewable energy with a dedicated policy
centralised; one member must and transmission corridor development cell in the MNRE and obligations for discoms to procure hydro
mandatorily be a legal professional. availability. to create projects with all power.
approvals, land availability,
• Central government to specify the • Half-hour trading windows with Reforming electricity distribution proposed
and detailed project reports
modalities of a payment security gate closure defined at 90 through phasing out cross-subsidies and
for adoption/investment by
mechanism and the bundling of hydro minutes before the actual alternative PPP business models.
investors
with thermal energy. delivery.
• LDCs empowered to regulate Removal of floor price from the REC market
electricity dispatch to states in case of to lower the price of RECs, thereby
Imposition of safeguard duty on encouraging discoms and corporate
inadequate payments from discoms. Removal of floor price for RECs
import of solar panels consumers to meet their RE obligations
• National RE policy notified with
through the REC market.
penalties for states for non- • CERC proposes a floor price
compliance with RPO; HPO (hydro) • An SGD of 14.9% has been
(minimum) of INR 0/MWh; this imposed for the period of Increasingly, Indian corporate electricity
also introduced. was INR 1,000/MWh in 2017. consumers have been committing to
August 2020 to January 2021;
• Electricity tariffs to be determined by • Forbearance price (maximum) of 14.5% SGD for February to July 100% RE consumption (e.g., Mahindra &
states without subsidy; DBT for INR 1,000/MWh; this was INR 2021. Mahindra, Tata Motors, and Infosys). A liquid
electricity subsidy. 2,400/MWh in 2017. REC market is expected to accelerate this
• The government plans to
• Reduction of cross-subsidies and transition.
• The Supreme Court dismissed implement a basic customs
associated surcharges to follow the the Green Energy Association’s duty (BCD) on solar cells and
trajectory specified in the tariff policy. SGD will have a limited impact on
(GEA) appeal seeking a stay order modules soon and will share
manufacturing and RE tariffs. Current
on CERC’s mandate to remove details over the next few
projects will not be impacted by the change
the floor price. months.
in the law clause.
Source: Publicly available information.
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Key deals (Q1 FY21)
Acquisition
Takeaways & Outlook
Target: Emami Group’s power business | Acquirer: Brookefield
Asset Management, Canada
Q1 FY21
Impressive 12.4 GW of RE capacity
June ‘20
Amount: Not available Market concentration in sanctioned/auctioned in Q1 FY21, but highly
sanctioned RE capacity concentrated in the hands of a few
Acquisition developers.
June ‘20 Note: Market concentration has been calculated
Target: Climate Connect (AI & analytics in power market) as the ratio of top five RE capacities sanctioned, to Adani Green Energy exercised its green-
Acquirer: ReNew Power the total RE capacity sanctioned
Amount: Not available
shoe option to develop an additional 6
GW of solar capacity under the
Developer-wise RE capacity
. sanctioned
Equity investment manufacturing linked tender (1.5 GW
during Q1 FY21 (12,400 MW)
Target: SILRES (Subsidiary of SunEdison Infra) | Acquirer: Fenice additional solar manufacturing). This (6 GW)
Operational RE capacity
Investment Group in India (MW)
is reportedly the single largest solar capacity
May ‘20 award to date globally.
Amount: INR 18.8 cr (USD 2.5 million)
Adani Green… 6,000 2,030
Active participation from companies
Pre-series A round funding (April 2020) Azure Power 2,000 1,808 backed by foreign investors in the SECI 2
Company: Mysun (Rooftop) ReNew Power 800 5,440 GW auction drove solar tariffs to their all
April ’20
Investor(s): Existing investors SoftBank Group…
time low of 2.36 INR/kWh.
600 2,000
Amount: INR 32.0 cr (USD 4.2 million)
EDEN… 600 207 Market concentration is expected to
Asset sale (5 projects) Axis Energy… 400 306 remain high going forward. Dominant
April ’20 Target: Shapoorji Pallonji Infra Capital | Acquirer: KKR players will have an edge in raising and
EQT, Temasek 380 0 pricing capital at the scale required to match
Amount: INR 1554 cr (USD 204 million) Avaada Energy 320 680 India’s ambitious RE capacity additions.
Equity investment: 37.5% (April 2020)
Enel Green Power 300 172
Safeguard duty is expected to be levied only
Target: Rising Sun Energy
Solarpack 300 160 till July 2021. Depending on commissioning
April ’20 Acquirer: Yinson Renewables (Malaysia) CDC Group 300 NA deadlines, developers may have the flexibility
Amount: INR 55.4 cr (USD 7.4 million) IB Vogt 300 0 to procure modules and avoid its impact.
AMP Energy… 100 450
Source: Publicly available information. Source: CEEW Centre for Energy Finance
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Change in key renewable energy stock prices (indexed to 100)
300.0
273.0
Takeaways & Outlook
250.0
229.4 Share prices of pure play RE developers such as
Adani Green and Azure Power attracted
increased investor interest in the
Value of stocks (indexed to 100)
Covid-19
200.0 nationwide immediate aftermath of the Covid-19
lockdown disruption which otherwise saw global stock
announcement markets fall sharply in March 2020.
150.0
127.7 Rising RE developer share prices in the wake
of Covid-19 seems to be global trend, not
100.0 112.1 only limited to Indian developers1.
100.0
85.7 Share prices of even smaller RE developer-
manufacturer companies such as Suzlon
67.9 Energy and Inox Wind have outperformed
50.0
the Sensex which was down 14.3% as of June
2020 (vs Dec 2019). The former (Suzlon) has
also benefitted from a debt restructuring.
0.0
Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Other listed RE companies such as Sterling
Wilson Solar (EPC) and Borosil Renewables
(glass manufacturing) have been affected by
Azure Power Global Ltd (NYSE) Adani Green Energy (BSE) Inox Wind (BSE) specific issues. A delayed promoter loan
Suzlon Energy (BSE) Sterling & Wilson Solar (BSE) Borosil Renewables (BSE)
repayment overhang in the case of the former,
and supply chain disruptions in the case of the
Sensex
latter.
Source: Money Control.
1 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/10-Energy-Stocks-Defying-The-COVID-19-Slump.html
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Bond yields and key financial rates
14.0% Takeaways & Outlook
13.5%
13.0%
Covid-19 nation-wide lockdown Adani Green Energy and ReNew Power have been
12.5%
announcement among the most active among RE developers
12.0% in India (see Annexure I). The key purpose of such
11.5% capital raises has been to refinance existing
11.0% debt with some portion left over for capacity
10.5% expansion.
10.0%
9.5% Covid-19 prompted the RBI to lower its repo
9.0% rate to an all time low of 4.00% (lower than the
8.5% 4.75% set during the 2008–09 financial crisis).
8.0%
Yields for internationally listed bonds of Indian RE
7.5%
developers saw a brief period of dramatic rise in
7.0%
March 2020. However, this shock in terms of
6.5%
rising yields (falling bond prices) appears to
6.0%
have been a temporary aberration, with yields
5.5%
now moving towards their pre Covid-19 levels.
5.0%
4.5% Interestingly, at a time of falling bond prices, the
4.0% stock prices of RE developers moved up sharply
3.5% (previous slide).
3.0%
Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Due to low liquidity in the Indian bond market
and credit rating constraints (most RE project
Repo rate SBI MCLR (1-year) Treasury bond yield (INR, 10-year)
loans are typically rated below AA, the minimum
requirement for issuance), we may continue to
NTPC bond yield (INR, 8.66%, 10-year) ReNew Power bond yield (USD, 6.67%, 5-year) Adani Green bond yield (USD, 6.25%, 5-year) see international bond issuances from Indian
RE developers.
Source: Reserve Bank of India, State Bank of India, Trading Economics, Money Control and BondEvalue.
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USD/kWh Project
Application &
location & Details
Current average battery issue date
technology
prices (lithium-ion)
Generation Expected bid
Leh & Kargil (SECI),
Grid-scale renewables with battery PPA price 14 MW solar with 42 conclusion in Q2
January 2020
MWh BESS FY21
trends in India (INR/kWh) versus US (USD/MWh) Takeaways & Outlook
Andaman & Nicobar Generation Expected bid
Southern Bighorn Solar & Islands (SECI), 4 MW floating solar conclusion in Q2 The key driver for energy storage growth has been
Storage Center, Nevada US 2023
1.64; 21.90 January 2020 with 2 MW BESS FY21 the co-location of storage with RE generation
projects; e.g., 1.2 GW tender in India (2019) with
Eland Solar Farm, assured peak power supply for 6 hours (50%
2.14; 28.50 Generation Bid concluded in
California US 2023 Delhi and Dadra & capacity). The PPA price discovered was 4.04–4.30
400 MW with solar, May 2020 with
Nagar Haveli (SECI),
SECI Assured Peak Power wind and storage tariff of 3.60 INR/kWh (54–58 USD/MWh).
4.04; 54.00 October 2019
Supply, India 2022 hybrid INR/kWh
Recent hybrid (RE + battery) project tariffs
Arrow Canyon Solar, discovered in the US reached a record low of 1.64–
1.64; 21.80 Generation Expected bid
Nevada US 2021 Lakshadweep (SECI), 2.14 INR/kWh (21.8–28.5 USD/MWh) for 4-
1.95 MW solar with conclusion in Q2
India seems to September 2019
Dodge Flat Solar, 2.15 MWh BESS FY21 hour backup (45–75% capacity).
Nevada US 2020 1.73; 23.10 be nearly 5
years behind Generation Battery storage prices and levelised tariffs have
in terms of Haryana Expected bid been rapidly declining due to the supersizing of
RE Mustang, California US 2020 2.39; 31.80 100 MW solar, solar-
(UHBVN/DHBVN), conclusion in Q2 battery capacities, anywhere from 400 to 1,200
PPA prices wind or small hydro
September 2019 FY21 MWh, thereby driving costs down.
with storage
Eland Project, California US 2019 3.00; 40.00
India is expected to have more hybrid (RE +
Generation Bid concluded in
storage) auctions of higher capacities in the future
TEP, Arizona US 2017 3.38; 45.00 Pan India (SECI), 1,200 MW assured Jan 2020 with
as the chief tendering agency (SECI) plans to come
August 2019 peak power supply tariff of 4.04 -
up with such tenders on demands from discoms
with storage 4.30 INR/kWh
KIUC, Hawaii US 2017 8.14; 108.50 to meet their renewable obligations and
Andhra Pradesh (AP Transmission tackle grid-level integration challenges
KIUC, Hawaii US 2015 10.43; 139.00 Transco), February 400 MW with 8 hours Bid cancelled simultaneously.
2019 of daily discharge
Source: Gormon, Mills, Bolinger, Wiser, Singhal, Ela, and O’Shaughnnessy Source: SECI and state renewable agencies.
(2020); LBNL; and BNEF (2020). Exchange rate = 75.0 INR/USD
cef.ceew.in15
Electric vehicle sales in India
180,000 1.60%
166,289 Takeaways & Outlook
160,000
1.40%
Overall, battery-operated vehicle (BOV) and
146,574 hybrid vehicle sales declined dramatically by
72.4%, from 60,924 units in Q1 FY20 to
140,000 16,978 units in Q1 FY21.
1.20%
BOV and hybrid vehicles sales grew with a
120,000 CAGR of 90.4% between FY16 and FY20.
1.00%
96,993 Two- and three-wheeler sales (e-
96,788 rickshaws) are key drivers of EV sales
100,000
90,034
growth in India, contributing more than 97%
0.80%
to annual sales (2019–20).
80,000
With the gradual easing up of the lockdown,
0.60% monthly EV sales initially recovered in
56,648 June 2020; this may be attributed to pent-up
60,000 52,840
demand.
0.40%
40,000 Though the festive season from September
6,183 to November may push EV sales further up,
19,730 6,260 0.20% annual automobile sales (for FY21) are
18,062 1,277
20,000 901 forecasted to be nearly 45% lower than in
FY20, as per SIAM estimates.
1,981 1,662
515
0 0.00% Range anxiety and high prices remain key
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 challenges.
Battery operated vehicles (BOV) Hybrid vehicles BOV and hybrid vehicles as % of overall vehicle sales
Source: Vahan Sewa dashboard (Includes only registered vehicles. Unregistered vehicles include low-speed (< 25 km/hr), e-rickshaws (three-wheelers) and
electric two-wheelers), Electric Mobility Dashboard, CEEW Centre for Energy Finance
cef.ceew.inYou can find us at cef.ceew.in | @CEEW_CEF
Authors
Nikhil Sharma (nikhil.Sharma@ceew.in)
Arjun Dutt (arjun.dutt@ceew.in
Saloni Jain (saloni.jain@ceew.in)
Gagan Sidhu (gagan.sidhu@ceew.in)
cef.ceew.in17
Size (USD Coupon rate Tenor
Date Company Sector Rating Purpose
million) (%) (Years)
January BB-/Stable
ReNew Power 450 Solar and wind 5.875% 5 Refinancing of maturing debt
2020 (Fitch)
October Adani Green Repaying foreign currency loans and
362.5 Solar and wind 4.625% BBB- (Fitch) 20
2019 Energy rupee borrowings
October Solar, wind, and
Urja Global 500 Not available Not available Not available Not available
2019 electric vehicles
September
Azure power 350 Solar 5.65% Not available 5 Refinancing of existing debt
2019
September Ba2 Capacity expansion and repaying high
ReNew Power 300 Solar and wind 6.45% 5
2019 (Moody's) cost debt
October Ba1
Greenko 950 Solar and wind 5.50% 5 Refinancing of solar and wind projects
2019 (Moody’s)
Adani Green
June 2019 500 Solar 6.25% BB+ (Fitch) 5 Refinancing of solar projects
Energy
March Capex and refinancing of outstanding
ReNew Power 375 Solar and wind 6.67% BB (Fitch) 5
2019 ECB
January Tata
25.6 Solar and wind Not available Not available Not available Capacity expansion
2019 Cleantech
US Treasury + 1.65%
September State Bank of (US investors)
650 Solar and wind BBB- (Fitch) 5 Investment in RE projects
2018 India 3 Libor + 1.51%
(British investors)
Source: Climate Bonds Initiative and company press releases
cef.ceew.in18
FAME-II target met Public charging stations
as of 21st July 2020 As of December 2019
INR/kWh
Note: Target of selling 1,562,000 EVs (2W, 3W,
4W and buses) under FAME-II scheme by FY22 Electric cars (4W) per public EV charging service fee
Recent electric vehicle launches charging station
Ampere Electric Magnus Pro
Price: INR 73,990 India
Range: 75 km
Battery capacity: 60 V, 30 Ah
INR/km
Average EV cab tariffs
Gemopal Electric Miso China
Price: INR 44,000 Note: Average internal combustion engine
Range: 60 - 75 km (conventional) cab tariffs are around 16.4
Battery capacity: 48 V, 17.5 Ah
INR/km
Germany
Bajaj Chetek Urbanite
Price: INR 1,00,000 - 1,15,000
Range: 95 km
Battery capacity: 3 kWh Japan
MG Motors ZS EV
Lakh INR
Price: INR 20,88,000 - 23,58,000
US Price range for an electric car (sedan)
Range: 340 km
Battery capacity: 75 kWh
Source: Electric Mobility Dashboard, CEEW Centre for Energy Finance
cef.ceew.in19 cef.ceew.in
20
Build evidence Create coherence Design solutions
Consistent, reliable, Periodic convening of Design and feasibility
and up to date multi-stakeholder pilots of fit-for-
monitoring & groups to deliberate purpose business
analysis of clean on market activities in models & financial
energy markets – clean energy solutions for clean
investment, payment energy solutions
schedules, market
trends, etc.
cef.ceew.in21
Cheaper Finance is Key
Jobs, Growth and Accelerating RE RE-Financing India’s
to Lowering RE Tariffs
Sustainability Investments in Sri Lanka Energy Transition
in Indonesia
CEEW-CEF Dashboard Open Access Tool Electric Mobility Dashboard
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