Media Landscapes and Disinformation in the V4 - Visegrad Insight
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2(11)|2017 ISSN 2084-8250 | GBP€4.99 | EURO€6.00 | PLN 16.00 The Buzz Around The Ballot ISSN 2084-8250 11 Media Landscapes and Disinformation in the V4 9 772084 825077
2 (11) | 2017 circulation: 6,000 frequency: twice a year editor-in-chief Wojciech Przybylski (Res Publica, PL) twitter: @wprzybylski director of operations Magda Jakubowska (Res Publica, PL) m.jakubowska@visegradinsight.eu + 48 694 40 19 80 editor Galan Dall (Res Publica, USA) editor@visegradinsight.eu online content editor Gabriela Rogowska (Res Publica, PL) gabriela.rogowska@visegradinsight.eu senior associate Marcin Zaborowski (Res Publica, PL) twitter: @MaZaborowski associate Anna Wójcik (Res Publica, PL) twitter: @annawojcik economy section editor Martin Ehl (Hospodářské noviny, CZ) twitter: @MartinCZV4EU intelligent mind editors Éva Karádi (HU) Marta Šimečková (SK) books editor Julia Sherwood (SK) contributing editors Juraj Čorba (SK) Katarína Kucbelová (SK) Marek Sečkař (CZ) Sophie Shevchuk (UA) Máté Zombory (HU) graphic design Published by Fundacja Res Publica im. H. Krzeczkowskiego Gałczyńskiego 5, 00-362 Warsaw, Poland 0048 22 826 05 66, fundacja@res.publica.pl Orders and inquiries: contact@visegradinsight.eu Webpage www.visegradinsight.eu Cover by Paweł Kuczyński Visegrad Insight is an analysis and opinion journal led by accomplished editors from the Visegrad Group countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Its aim is to provide a platform for high profile debate on the perspectives and challenges for cooperation of the Central European governments, business and communities. Published by Res Publica, Poland. T h o u g h T p r o v o k i n g 2 VISEGRAD INSIGHT 2 (11) | 2017
EDITORIAL The buzz around the ballot Every period in history has its jokes including the Post-truth era. This one has been PIOTR BEKAS told following the occupation of Crimea: if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and denies it’s a duck, it’s a Russian duck. In truth, our duck does not quack – it tweets! The acronym of the Russian IRA stands today for a new kind of terrorist organisation – the Internet Research Agency (AKA the troll factory) whose operations were recent- ly revealed in relation to the electoral campaign in the USA. What makes the Russian fake-news campaign so successful? It appears that the con- temporary masters of lies the IRA are able to considerably influence the global demo- cratic process. Is it due to their strength or more due to our weakness? The latter explanation makes more sense. During the recent digital revolution – a rapid process that had a vast impact on our societies, we let hostile scouts take over part of our domestic electoral agenda. This autumn, Twitter’s self-audit revealed that nearly half of the American population has been exposed to this Russian campaign of hate and fake-news. The goal, apparent- ly, was not only to have Donald Trump elected but to polarise the American society. The IRA sponsored both radicalism of the right and of the left. But why was it possible in the first place? Two particular developments revived this mass scale disinformation. First – the 2008 WOJCIECH PRZYBYLSKI financial crisis that struck down traditional media all across the world, and second Editor-in-chief – the rapid growth of social media. Capitalism and the internet, neither one a Russian invention, quickly became the new weapons of the information age. THE SWIFT GROWTH OF SOCIAL Central Europe, in many ways, has become more exposed than the USA or other EU MEDIA TOOK REVENUE FROM TRA- partners. The swift growth of social media took revenue from traditional media outlets DITIONAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND EX- and exposed societies to pure political propaganda. Editorial oversight, often referred POSED SOCIETIES TO PURE POLITICAL to as gatekeeping, no longer safeguards social media followers and friends from direct PROPAGANDA exposure to divisive practices. As a reaction, Facebook introduced its own editorial oversight that was revealed earlier this year, but it might not have been soon enough for countries that had already been heavily exposed. As we show, compared to Germany, in 2017 more people in the V4 (+10%) prefer and have trust in so-called “alternative media” than in mainstream outlets. Trust in main- stream media is further undermined by poor business models that are not catching up with the quickly growing digital advertising market. In the Post-truth era, the fourth estate of democracy, counting social media in, has become a challenge to democracy. To build up democratic, resilience let’s start with resilience of quality media. 3
CONTENTS EUROPE POLITICS IN THE BUZZ 6 urvey – The Impact of the Internet on S Media and Politics Szabolcs Töhötöm Tóth, Karel Kovář, Zuzanna Ziomecka, Tomáš Bella, Eric Maurice 10 House Undivided – How pro-Putin ideologues have united both the far-right and the far-left in their unwavering support of the Kremlin’s geopolitical agenda Péter Krekó, interview with Lóránt Győri Robert Pszczel from 13 ire and Brimstone – Deception and F the NATO HQ Dread in Central Europe Galan Dall Illustration: Paweł Kuczyński From Tweets to Tanks – interview 16 16 with Robert Pszczel from the NATO HQ ECONOMY PAGE SOCIAL MEDIA Report: Media Consumption Trends – 18 in cooperation with weCAN network 20 The Vulnerable V4 Miriam Lexmann WHAT ARE MEDIA MEDIA CONSUMPTION POPULISM & POWER TRENDS IN V4 24 T he Cassandra Curse Danuta Dobrzyńska-Schmimer 26 T he Czech Elections and the Future of Media Independence Václav Štĕtka 28 The New Enemy Zselyke Csaky The Shadow over media Michał 30 18 Kobosko 34 J ournalism’s Growing Pains in Visegrad Beata Balogová PAGE 38 Making lemonade Zosia Wasik 40 The Pitfalls of Censoring Fake News Barbora Bukovska in conversation SECTION with Aleksandra Eriksson 43 Imbalance and Glass Ceilings Greta Gober 45 Gender Equality in CEE Media, Helena Chmielewska-Szlajfer SECURITY CYBER 48 The State of Cyber Security in the V4 Botond Feledy 51 June 2017 Cyber Attack in Ukraine Michael Chertoff, former Secretary 24 of Homeland Security 52 How vulnerable is the Polish Cyber World to Attacks Tomasz Matuła PAGE 4 VISEGRAD INSIGHT 2 (11) | 2017
CONTENTS INTERVIEW The Hurdles Ahead THE HURDLES EU ON THE EDGE 55 T remors in Europe’s The Report Card Foundation for Central Europe AHEAD FOR Roland Freudenstein CENTRAL EUROPE V4 ABROAD Iveta Radičová FUTURE OF EU 59 T he End of Convergence Cornelius Ochmann, Wojciech Przybylski 60 The Different Faces of Visegrad Kai-Olaf Lang 61 T he Hurdles Ahead for Central Europe Iveta Radičová 64 Germany and Central Europe Michal Kořan 68 The Euro, Always on the Central European Edit Inotai 70 dditional Conditions A 61 Zoltán Kovács, Secretary of State of Hungary, on the adoption of the euro in Hungary PAGE 71 urozone membership – the Facts, E the Game, and the Debate – flash report by Visegrad Insight 84 72 The Parisian Mirror Milan Nič 75 ho Will Be Served at the Table W and Who Will Be Served for Dinner, PAGE Edit Zgut The Small Steps of Europe Paweł 78 Kowal, former deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Rastislav Káčer 82 What German Elections mean for Central Europe Marcin Zaborowski INTELLIGENT MIND SLOVAKIA 84 on’t Merchandise Doubt Rastislav D Káčer BOOKS 89 FICTION WE LOVE 89 In Literature Julia Sherwood 90 Emöke Szabó Lovas PAGE 92 Magdalena Mullek 93 Anna Zaranko 94 Michal Jareš Julia Sherwood, Emöke Szabó Lovas, Magdalena Mullek, Anna Zaranko, Michal Jareš 5
EUROPE POLITICS IN THE BUZZ We have asked five internet savvy editors about the buzz around the ballot. What was the impact of the internet on media and politics SURVEY in recent years? 6 VISEGRAD INSIGHT 2 (11) | 2017
POLITICS IN THE BUZZ EUROPE SZABOLCS TÖHÖTÖM TÓTH Editor-in-Chief of Magyar Nemzet (Hungarian nation), a Hungar- ian daily founded by Sándor Pethő in 1938. He is also project leader for the online development of the newspaper. W ith Donald Trump rising to power, the debate on To make things worse for those Hungarian news outlets fake news has engulfed editorial pages, prompt- that still try to resist this surge, the government has become ed hosts of news stories and provoked myriads one of the biggest advertisers in the media market. In fact, of twitter posts all over Europe and in the United according to the CANnual Report 2017 (see pages 18–19 in States. Less attention has been paid though to another dan- this issue), the Prime Minister’s Office was the second biggest gerous phenomenon. One that I would call the “fake media”. advertiser in Hungary in 2016, following the German telecom- In Hungary, the government has managed to create one munication giant Telekom. so successfully that newspapers, television stations and online Of course, this advertisement money goes to friend- news sites belonging to its propaganda machine now threaten ly media companies. To add more insult to injury, there is a to suffocate the real thing: those who still try to maintain ed- widespread perception that private companies are under pres- itorial independence and work with the traditional watchdog sure by the Hungarian government not to place ads in news approach to those in power. outlets that are perceived as enemies by Fidesz, Hungary’s In the last three or four years, through friendly business- ruling party. men and thinly veiled direct funding, the Hungarian govern- This brutal interference has resulted in an extremely dis- ment has channeled hundreds of billions of forints into buying torted media market, where independent players are bound existing media companies and creating new ones. Now, it ef- to compete with a thinly-veiled state-run media conglomerate fectively controls (through its cronies) one of the two over- that is awash with public and (scared) private money in an the-air commercial television channels (Tv2), two national economic system that is more and more controlled and bullied newspapers (Magyar Idők and Magyar Hírlap), a free daily by the state. distributed on mass transit lines (Lokál), two national tabloid Meanwhile, market trends that have hit media compa- daily newspapers (Ripost and Bors), the biggest Hungarian on- nies hard in other countries of Europe are of course present line news site (Origo), a television news channel (Echo TV), a in Hungary as well. The decline of print ad revenue coupled news radio channel (Karc FM), all of the regional daily news- with the growing amount of money that Google and Facebook papers (!) and their associated online news sites, and an addi- is diverting from these companies are huge problems for tional two, relatively new, online news sites (Pesti Srácok and Hungarian media companies. 888) – besides weekly newspapers and several smaller scale Thus, under these circumstances, the Hungarian govern- news operations on the internet. ment does not have to curb press freedom to silence dissent: While acquiring all these riches, in 2016 it managed to all it has to do is to create competitors to private companies buy and shut down the leftist Népszabadság, one of Hungary’s that are already under siege by market forces, in order to cre- flagship daily national newspapers. ate fake media that tries to behave like the real one. Except for Of course, the government is also served by the whole its main goal is not to hold the government accountable, but to public media, which has practically been enslaved and re- assist it, not to expose propaganda, but to spread it, and not to duced to a propaganda machine on steroids, including the unveil the truth but to hide it in an artificially created noise. state-run news agency, multiple television channels, radio stations and an online news site. All financed with taxpayer money, of course. 7
EUROPE POLITICS IN THE BUZZ ZUZANNA ZIOMECKA Editor-in-Chief of NewsMavens.com. A media maker driven by the conviction that diversity and inclusion are the best way for- ward for our VUCA world. She uses media and journalism to cre- ate leadership interventions into issues that she feels deeply about. A woman, a mother, a European, a practitioner and pro- moter of mindfulness, and a great admirer of pirates. T he internet has eliminated the barrier of entry into me- dia. In these days of intense social media penetration, everyone is a commentator and politicians no longer need the media to get through to their constituencies. A major challenge in this situation is that advertisers, the bread and butter of the media business, also no longer need the me- dia to reach audiences. This puts media in a position it has never been in before – we now have to prove our utility to both the public and the consumer goods industry. KAREL KOVÁŘ A clear trend in this search for a new “reason to be” is the One of the most popular Czech video bloggers who introduced emergence of fact checking as a media format. Instimojer, a political themes to Czech video blogging cementing his status fact checking NGO in Bosnia and Herzegovina is an example by being one of three to interview President Juncker. In 2016, of a stand-alone institution dedicated to checking claims and he received the Blogger of the Year award. Forbes has identified promises made by local authorities. A story recently released him as the 17th most influential Czech on social networks in on Instinomjer gives an inside look at how Bosnian politicians 2016 and listed him as one of the 30 most talented Czechs make use of loose regulations to put up their own online news aged under 30. He was also listed as a New Europe 100 chal- sources that launch smear campaigns against political rivals. lenger by Res Publica, Google, Financial Times and the Visegrad Another example is Gazeta Wyborcza’s SONAR – a big data Fund in 2017. start-up also created to track local politicians. I t is brutal I would say. News especially. Basically, every- body is dealing with something I call information mad- ness nowadays. Sometimes it´s very hard to tell what´s the truth and what´s just a fake story. People are mostly confused not knowing what to trust anymore, which creates instability and distrust. That is extremely convenient for big powers (especially Russia), which want to see the EU divided and unstable. There is enough evidence that Russia itself is helping to create this kind of situation through hacking and paid “news outlets” which have been successful in spreading an epidemic of fake news stories. Feeling that the EU does not care enough, Visegrad is moving closer to the so-called strong leadership idea and basic values like free independent media or parliamentary democracy are being threatened. 8 VISEGRAD INSIGHT 2 (11) | 2017
POLITICS IN THE BUZZ EUROPE ERIC MAURICE Editor-in-Chief of EUobserver. Before joining the Brussels-based news website, he was editor-in-chief of Presseurop, a pan-Euro- pean and multilingual media project. A graduate from the Par- is-Sorbonne University in history of international relations and the Paris École Supérieure de journalisme, he started his ca- reer at the French weekly Courrier International, where he suc- cessively was in charge of the French, US and Western Europe desks. I t is not an original thing to say, but the internet has ac- celerated the pace of news because everyone now – in- cluding journalists – expect articles on any event to come online very quickly, as if they were just an extension of tweets and news alerts. That tendency is intensified by the fact that the internet has also extended the competition – traditional media, pure players, news agencies (which traditionally were only provid- TOMÁŠ BELLA ers for news organisations, not directly to the public) are at the Co-founder and head of online at Dennik N, independent Slo- same level but with their own characteristics and pace. vak daily newspaper. Daily “N” was founded in 2015 by former To follow that pace, you have to try to publish different members of the editorial team of SME daily. Previously, he was kinds of news – breaking, factual or analytical. In these realms, the editor-in-chief at Sme.sk and CEO at Piano, a company pro- the biggest publishers have an advantage. ducing paid-content software for publishers. Nominated as a On EU politics, the impact – seen from a more cyni- New Europe 100 challenger for introducing the ground-breaking cal perspective – is that the institutions, and mainly the EU technology of a pay-wall for media content by Res Publica, Goog- Commission, use this environment to better control the le, Financial Times and the Visegrad Fund. information. They know that we journalists have to work quickly, and T often they give us documents at the last minute, just before a he internet, especially in smaller countries, allows poli- commissioner comes to make an announcement. Then we have ticians to cut out the (media) middle man, which can be only their point of view if we want to write our article quickly. used for both good and evil. Some politicians enter into Politicians – and I include commissioners, MEPs, more honest public discussions with their voters which allows than just EU national leaders – also communicate more citizens to get direct answers from them and better informa- through social media by sharing articles and reports they tion about their attitudes than through media (or billboards). like, or in which they are quoted, or even opinion pieces they On the other hand, the internet made it very easy for wrote (and which are mainly written in order to be shared on extremists to communicate directly with potential voters, social media). something that used to be much harder through the filter of EU officials and politicians know that journalists in traditional media. Brussels spend all their days on Twitter. So that’s how they In the end, I believe the effect will be positive but, as share their speeches, react to events, deny news, try to spread with any other new medium, people will need to go through their spin. From that point of view, Twitter has become a years of slowly learning how to use the medium and how to quasi-official means of communication, much more than recognize and avoid its potential traps. Facebook. 9
EUROPE POLITICS IN THE BUZZ A House Undivided How pro-Putin ideologues have united both the far-right and the far-left in their unwavering support of the Kremlin’s geopolitical agenda Illustration: Paweł Kuczyński PÉTER KREKÓ AND LÓRÁNT GYŐRI A little more than a year mostly older pensioners burnt out by the the works of the leading neo-Eurasian ago, a limited circle of Trianon trauma and some youths sport- ideologist Alexander Dugin. fans gathered in a small ing discreet Hitler-Jugend haircuts, all The sympathy of Ms. Őry to the far-right bookstore lo- of them ready to hear the author, Daniel pro-Kremlin emigre circle of far-right ac- cated underground of Friberg, speak about the immigrant situ- tivists residing in Budapest is not surpris- one of the most prom- ation in Europe. ing. She is the Head of the Foreign Desk inent plazas in Buda- A journalist, Mariann Őry was also at the right-wing Magyar Hírlap news- pest to welcome the among the crowd and even introduced paper – owned by a pro-Fidesz oligarch new book of the European “alt-right” (in Mr. Friberg as a regular economist in her – that openly promotes an anti-immigra- fact: Nazis in suits) titled “The Real Right journal. The author is in fact an ex-Swed- tion, illiberal, misogynistic and homo- Returns: A Handbook for the True Op- ish neo-Nazi turned CEO of the Arktos phobic agenda, resonating governmental position”. The audience was composed of group, the main European publisher of messages. 10 VISEGRAD INSIGHT 2 (11) | 2017
POLITICS IN THE BUZZ EUROPE Where this story gets interesting is portrays him (as well as Putin) as a Saint ANTI-FASCISTS IN ARMS IN V4 that Őry is in fact the daughter of Gyula George who fights against the dragon of COUNTRIES: HUNGARY, CZECHIA Thürmer, the Chairman of the Hungarian Islamic terrorism. AND POLAND Workers’ Party (HWP) – a successor of The second important point is that Of course, after four decades of state the Hungarian Socialist Workers’ Party converging anti-establishment, anti-EU socialism, the post-communist block is (MSZMP), the only political remnant and anti-NATO narratives on the radi- not the stronghold of the radical left any- of hardcore, orthodox communism. cal left and radical right often manifest more. The general fate of Central-Eastern She used to be on the political board themselves in cooperation. One such European far-left parties is that they fade of the party, when her father turned it example involves the “nationalist radical away, unable to modernize themselves, into a pro-Russian family-business after leftist portal” called Bal-rad. This web- losing their old voters while having diffi- 2010. She also enthusiastically reported page, pushing several pro-Russian arti- culties to attract the new urban, educat- about her father’s press conferences on cles embedded in a bizarre combination ed electorate that the green parties reach Syria, Crimea and other foreign policy of radical left-nationalist and anti-glo- out to. Instead, these parties keep living issues – in all of these cases, presenting balist narratives was sponsored by Lukoil as communist spectres of the Soviet past. standpoints totally compatible with the – despite their being an utterly marginal The only relevant political force in Kremlin’s. Thürmer, for example, ap- site and, therefore, having zero PR value. the region is in Czechia. The Communist peared bizarrely enthusiastic after the Then, not-so-surprisingly, it moved to a Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) annexation of Crimea by Russia – Russian server in April 2017. received 15% of the vote in 2013, but has “If Albanians have the right in Here, we can see again the manifes- declined to 8% by 2017. Over the years, Kosovo for self-determination, Russians tation of a global phenomenon on a local they have been able to maintain a close have the same right in Crimea. (…) We level: the ideological convergence of the relationship with the Russian Communist should rather cherish that the borders fringes is at the same time spontaneous Party – after the Soviet Union fell apart – of the second world war are not carved and facilitated. Russia, a natural ally of which is, these days, a pseudo-opposition in stone. We should not feel sorrow over fringe movements in their fight against party with a strong nationalist and even Trianon, (…) Europe would be much bet- the global establishment, is trying to nostalgically imperialist agenda. ter off by re-drawing the map according make the most out of this anti-Western While having seen better days, the to the will of the people.” coalition. leader of the Russian communist party, Gyula Thürmer’s son, Gyula Máté Another important instance in- Zyuganov, received almost 30% of the T. is also politically active: he used to be a volved the Hungarian communist par- vote in the presidential elections in 2000 candidate for the Hungarian Communist ty which cooperated with the now when Putin was first elected as president. party, and he is right now also the column- dissolved neo-Nazi Hungarian National In the latest Duma elections, they were ist of pro-governmental newspapers such Front (MNA). This party became no- still the strongest opposition party with as Magyar Hírlap and Pesti Srácok that torious for its leader shooting down a more than 13% of the vote, and Russian are also pushing an authoritarian, illiberal, policeman in late 2016. He also conduct- communists keep an important role in xenophobic agenda and tons of fake news. ed “airsoft drills” with members of the keeping the old comrade networks alive. Russian military service, the GRU (dis- However, the Russian communists WHERE ALL RADICALS guised as Russian diplomats accredited are not the only force reaching out to the CONVERGE in Hungary). Surprisingly enough, it ac- radical left in Europe. While the Kremlin- Two important conclusions can be drawn knowledged the Workers’ party as a gen- driven disinformation campaigns are fre- from this seemingly marginal and par- uine representation of the “Hungarians’ quently described as strongly ideological, ticular case. First of all, an increasing real interest.” While the Hungarian com- in fact, they are totally opportunistic, overlap between the narratives of the rad- munists are, originally, known for their aiming to reach different audiences via ical left and the radical right, especially notorious and militant anti-fascism, various channels. In 2016, the Russian when it comes to foreign policy issues in Thürmer’s party protested together in Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, for ex- which Russia is involved. They usually social matters with the neo-Nazis, and ample, published an English article in come to the same conclusion on different the MNA published ideological articles the Russian Global Affairs (the “Russian logical routes; while the radical right, for promoting the “formation of a workers’ Foreign Affairs magazine”), which explic- example, like to refer to Putin as the last state” on Hungarian communist websites. itly targets left-wing intellectuals and pol- real Christian, conservative leader in Eu- After the annexation of Crimea, iticians in the West with quotations from rope and celebrate his attempts to dom- both far-right and far-left “independent George Orwell, and statements to the ef- inate this sphere of influence, the radical European observers” went to legitimize fect that Western European welfare states left in Europe – from Syriza through to the illegal secession referendum, in March just copied the Soviet Union’s success. the Czech Communists and Die Linke to 2014. Despite the fact that the Hungarian After the Maidan revolution, the the Dutch Socialists and Podemos – re- Workers’ Party was unable or unwilling Kremlin launched the single biggest dis- fer to the maintaining of peace, neutrality to send an envoy, the Communist Party information campaign in the last decade and self-determination when justifying, of Greece (KKE), the German Die Linke, about a Western initiated “Fascist coup” for example, the Crimean annexation. the Polish Democratic Left Alliance in Kiev. This message resonated well with When talking about Syria, the radical and Mateusz Piskorski, the founder of both the fellow Ukrainian Communist left tend to see Assad as an eternal com- the leftist-national Zmiana party, did parties, Russian compatriots evoking the rade fighter against the imperialists; the so along with scores of far-right party “Great Patriotic War” fought by Stalin, radical right, in a similarly positive light, representatives. and European left-wing parties and in- 11
EUROPE POLITICS IN THE BUZZ tellectuals. Three years after the war ness” with CIS-EMO in the post-Soviet against Ukraine unleashed by Russia, the space, aiming at legitimising Kremlin- KSČM still warns of the “open Western backed regimes, breakaway regions and aggression against Russia,” and the emer- referenda. In 2015, the politician found- gence of “fascist, and Nazi forces”. KSČM ed Poland’s first and only openly and organized the first “Current Fascism in blatantly pro-Russian leftist party called Europe” workshop in 2014 on Russian Zmiana (Change). At the same time, foreign policy in the Czech Parliament he was pushing the “Ukraine is fascist” in cooperation with the Institute of narrative as a “geopolitical expert” on Slavic Strategic Studies (ISSS) founded in Sputnik and Russia Today. Piskorski was Prague in 2013. Again, we can obviously arrested by the Polish authorities in May see the joint far-right far-left platform. 2016 allegedly on charges of espionage The latest pro-Russian discussion titled for Russia and China. Shortly after, the “Myths about Russia” was held by the “Laundromat scandal” proved that the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy European Centre of Geopolitical Analysis party together with the ISSS in 2016 in (ECAG) led by Piskorski was – using the Czech Parliament. money coming from Russia. In Poland, obviously pro-Russian voices are usually more silent and more TACTICALLY BLIND, marginal. Still, beside the far-right, we can DEAF AND MUTE find strong proponents of Russia on the While Zmiana is rather an extreme case, left as well. A member of the post-Com- the Polish Democratic Left Alliance’s be- munist Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), haviour sums up the far-left’s paradoxical Adam Krzysztof Kępiński, for example, connection with Moscow. Leftist parties, participated as an election observer at even in the centre, are usually much less the 2014 “referendum” on the secession blatant about their support for the Krem- of Crimea. Leszek Miller, the party’s for- lin as compared to their far-right coun- mer chairman and former PM of Poland, terparts. Most European leftist parties has frequently criticised politicians of rarely praise Putin or his regime openly. being too harsh towards Russia and has They call for “neutrality”, “peace” and the called for a friendlier relationship with “stopping of western aggression” instead. their eastern neighbour. The majority of European far-left parties In 2014, Miller called the Russian showcase a double-edged strategy of rhe- aggression a “fratricidal war” in Eastern- torical self-containment and the denial Ukraine, blaming the Right Sector for the of pro-Putinism with an almost uncon- crisis without mentioning Russia’s role in ditional support of the Kremlin’s core the war. In an interview given to Sputni, geopolitical goals. While the far-right the former PM later criticised the Polish is rather vocal in its ideological pro-Pu- authorities for not letting the pro-Putin tinism, the left is deaf and blind to the “Night Wolves” motorcycle gang through perceived human rights violations and “honouring the fight against the Fascist imperial ambitions of Russia, and mute Germany,” and for “Russophobia becom- when talking about these issues. But they ing the official foreign policy doctrine” of lose their inhibition when it comes to Poland. Twice the presidential candidate criticising the West – especially the US, of the SLD, Magdalena Ogórek, advocated the EU and NATO for aggression and for a stronger partnership with Russia, try- provoking conflicts. ing to put it as the European mainstream: “The world needs Russia to fight terror- Péter Krekó is the director of the Political Capital ism. Angela Merkel and Franocis Hollande Institute, a Budapest-based Central European are conducting very balanced talks with political research and consultancy firm. Russia and I am so proud of this.” The infamous and aforemen- Lóránt Győri is a geopolitical analyst at Political tioned, Mateusz Piskorski, a well-known Capital. pro-Russian political figure in Poland, personally embodies the pro-Putin coali- tion of the radical left and right. Piskorski started his career around extremist or- ganizations and later became an MP of the far-right Self-Defence of the Republic of Poland in 2005. Later he became one of the organizers of the “election busi- 12 VISEGRAD INSIGHT 2 (11) | 2017
POLITICS IN THE BUZZ EUROPE FIRE AND BRIMSTONE The Proliferation of Deception and Dread in Central Europe Disinformation campaigns in the US are growing in sophistication, and many across the Atlantic are learning the same tricks 13
EUROPE POLITICS IN THE BUZZ GALAN DALL F or most of us who don’t everyday skill we have all had to quickly TRANSLATING THE PARANOIA block or unfollow those adopt. Just as we were getting hold of this The above is hardly surprising consider- with differing political fake news debacle, we have reached the ing all the recent tactics used to influence opinions, our daily news- next stage of this propaganda strategy: elections in Western Europe as well as the feeds are constantly being judgment before publishing. US, but the question at hand is if the same bombarded with spuri- To see this plan in action, we can occurrence is happening in post-commu- ous stories of politicians look back to last June when the western nist societies? from across the spectrum media world was caught in eager anticipa- The situation in Central Europe is engaged in a smorgasbord of conspiracies. tion of Megyn Kelly’s NBC interview with trickier to diagnose because many far- The strategy is to overwhelm the reader, Alex Jones, the founder of Info Wars (if right, nationalistic parties are currently in and the public at large, with as many arti- ever a show name was more appropriate power and, a crucial difference from the cles as possible on similar topics, so that for someone intent on disrupting coherent US, they also control many of the main- the sheer number of pieces will convince narratives and espousing, often violent, stream media outlets. people that there must be something solutions to conspiracies so far-fetched A recent report by Robert Gorwa truthful in them, after all where there’s they crossed over into the farcical realm for the Oxford Internet Institute found smoke…there’s more smoke. The pur- long ago). The content of the interview that there has been a considerable in- pose is either to undermine established was of less importance, as the ratings did crease in the use of political bots, trolling and reputable journalistic sources (many indicate, than the perception of its “fair- and fake accounts to amplify the propa- of which are producing a large number of ness” (if you tend towards conservative gation of fake news throughout Poland. credible, though controversial, articles) or beliefs) or if it was “hard-hitting” enough What is more interesting is that, while the to obfuscate the situation until no one is (if you are more liberal leaning). consequences of these operations can be certain of what is real. Apart from her previous journalistic extensive, the actual number of people dis- Take, for example, the early hours sins and signs of bias, the critical response tributing this disinformation is incredibly following the horrific Las Vegas shooting was that Kelly did a good job holding Jones small. Perhaps the critics worried about where 59 people died and over 500 were accountable for some of his more outland- giving Alex Jones a bigger microphone injured by a sole-gunman. Clearly nervous ish comments like when he claimed that were correct in their consternations. about a public cry for background checks the Sandy Hook massacre – where 26 A similar situation is playing out in and/or the implementation of meaningful people, mostly children, were killed by a neighbouring Czechia. There, a few small gun legislation, alt-right and some right- gunman at a primary school – was staged but popular sites of unknown ownership wing news agencies flooded both Google by actors. Some though were wary of giv- are peddling pro-Putin and anti-American and Facebook with fabricated stories that ing Jones a larger audience to promote his material while spreading fear about immi- the gunman was a “liberal Democrat” ideas which can aid in the spreading of dis- grants, refugees and Islam in general. But who despised Donald Trump. It took only trust and discontent in society. what has been the effect of these websites hours to disprove this fallacy because the Jones himself used the days before and yellow journalism on the Central Las Vegas Police Department had not the interview to stoke the flames of his European public? released any information on the mass “theory” that he will never be treated According to GLOBSEC, two- murderer, but during that time, enough well by mainstream media, echoing one thirds of Poland’s population do not be- articles had swamped the streams of those of Trump’s favourite excuses of “misrep- lieve the media is presenting an accurate so keen to believe that gun violence isn’t resentation”; Trump himself has been a representation of reality. This can be caused by guns that the rest of the story fan of Jones’ show, enough so to even call mostly attributed to the same methods was drowned out. in and voice his support. Needless to say, mentioned above, a barrage of stories each In today’s world, where there will most on the internet had already decided corroborating each other, but none worth be support for any sound or dubious po- the interview’s value days before its airing, their weight in salt, yet many also attrib- sition wished to be held, discerning what and this was the intended outcome, to ute this to government control of many of information is trustworthy has become an skew minds. the main media outlets. The situation has 14 VISEGRAD INSIGHT 2 (11) | 2017
POLITICS IN THE BUZZ EUROPE The situation in Central Europe is trickier to diagnose because many right-wing, nationalistic parties are currently in power and, a crucial gotten severe enough for the Czech gov- for proponents of tolerance; however, to difference from the US, ernment to set up a task force to combat those in his community (much like the they also control many these disinformation campaigns. Jones interview above), his removal from This is a laudable step in the right di- the UK is a feather in his cap; a true patriot of the mainstream media rection, but as polls closed in late October, and Christian oppressed by “liberals” and Andrej Babiš – the populist leader of the in his words “Jewish agents with British outlets. ANO party who has been on numerous passports” (original in Polish: ”żydowscy occasions compared to Donald Trump agenci z brytyjskimi paszportami”) . (businessman-turned-politician) – is set For people like Jones, Międlar, and to become the next Prime Minister of even the current president of the US, re- Czechia. porting factually what they have said is On the surface, there is nothing an act of misrepresentation worthy of wrong with a successful magnate turning retaliation. to politics. However, his unique ace in the This past September saw the un- hole is control over the Mafra media group veiling of some of the disinformation which includes the number two newspa- campaigns used in the past year when per (second only to the tabloid Blesk) and Facebook and Twitter released a trove of number three internet news portal in the accounts – mostly run by Russian bots – region. What will happen if the task force which actively promoted Donald Trump above finds issue with something associat- for president. Instead of acting responsibly ed with the likely future Prime Minister’s and attempting to secure the democracy business handlings? A rather obvious po- he now leads by acknowledging these elec- tential conflict of interest is around the toral assaults, Trump decided to exacer- corner, and if there’s anything Czechia bate the situation by attacking Facebook can learn from America, it is that potential itself and the media outlets that covered threats become dangerous realities from the story. one day to the next. As the fourth estate is far more en- trenched in the US and Western Europe, THE WOLF PLAYING SHEPHERD worries about these attacks on journal- But who is the Alex Jones of Central Eu- ists and of deceitful reporting taking over rope? Here we can look to Poland and without any oversight is less worrisome the suspended-priest Jacek Międlar. He than in places like Central Europe where has given many anti-Semitic and Islam- censorship was an unfortunate and unde- ophobic speeches and is popular with sirable but accepted way of life for many right-wing groups on both his blog and years. How easy it would be for it to return Twitter account. Previously this year, as in the name of providing safety and secu- the Guardian reported, Międlar was held rity from the “tormenting evils” of open and refused entry into Britain on at least society. two instances, in both cases he was to speak at far-right rallies. The author is a journalist and editor based in Międlar’s use of venom-filled rhet- Warsaw, Poland. oric on his blog, Twitter and Facebook page as well as his proclivity for inciting prejudice seemed to justify the authori- ties denying him entry in an apparent win 15
EUROPE POLITICS IN THE BUZZ FROM TWEETS TO TANKS INTERVIEW WITH ROBERT PSZCZEL , SENIOR OFFICER FOR RUSSIA AND THE WESTERN BALKANS, PUBLIC DIPLOMACY DIVISION, NATO HQ (FORMER DIRECTOR OF NATO INFORMATION OFFICE IN MOSCOW) About NATO’s complex approach to information challenges. Are Poland and Central Europe taking What strategy does NATO have concern- does not answer disinformation or prop- part in informational warfare? ing this hybrid warfare? aganda with its own propaganda or dis- If we take into consideration the coun- This is a very broad topic. Since 2014, information. We aim to present facts and tries which are members of NATO, then NATO has developed and initiated a hy- our arguments in a dynamic way, using they do not participate in any kind of war. brid strategy to deal with such threats. diverse platforms and tools. We do it It is true however that the security envi- It encompasses many elements ranging via interaction with traditional media, ronment has changed significantly over from a better coordination of intelligence but also through the internet and social the last few years, and therefore so has products, work on resilience of our insti- media – see for example our “Setting the the context and terms we are using to de- tutions and infrastructure, incorporating Record Straight” portal. But we also try scribe it. The elements of hybrid war like hybrid scenarios in our exercises, as well to correct many “false facts or fake news” disinformation, cyber-attacks – these are as cooperation with partner countries which target NATO and individual Allies not abstract terms, but very real threats and the European Union. – by engaging with journalists, opinion and challenges. These tools are not used NATO has 29 member states united formers and ordinary people. by the NATO states foffensive purposes, by a collective defence pledge, forming a In the NATO family, there are many but such actions or elements can be at- stable, permanent coalition that primari- so called Centres of Excellence, and two tributed to the Russian Federation or the ly looks after the security of its members. with the highest public profiles are those Islamic State. Moving to the issue of your main in- which deal respectively with cyber secu- One such operation was the terest, information policy as a dimension rity and with Strategic Communications. Crimean occupation in 2014 where we of our response to hybrid challenges, as is Both institutions help NATO and mem- could see – for the first time in modern the case with other aspects, the first stage ber states by undertaking research, history – the “little green men” being em- of our approach is analysis and situational running courses and workshops – real ployed on a large scale. We all know who awareness. educational work. they were and what they did, so let’s not Comparing to where we were a few This long-term effort does not hap- forget that their first acts involved taking years ago, our awareness of, for example, pen solely within NATO borders. The over and occupying local media centres. how social media are used for aggressive fact that Sweden, a non-NATO country, There was also a disinformation cam- aims of disinformation has improved a has already trained thousands of its civil paign, and a military exercise seemingly great deal. NATO’s situation awareness is servants on how to deal with the problem used as a decoy which preceded the op- an essential starting point because if we of disinformation shows that the threat eration in Crimea. So, the answer from lack the tools to identify the problem, it has an international character. People the Allied side is no, we do not engage in is hard to devise optimum countermeas- who work in specific spheres are likely information warfare, but if we talk about ures against it. to face certain kinds of disinformation the negative and aggressive actions in the The second question is what can be attacks, and if they are made aware of informational sphere, then there is plenty done in a particular situation. We, first of this then they will know how to react and of evidence to suggest that others may see all, need to stick to our mandate and our would hopefully share their knowledge it differently. principles. This means simply that NATO among their communities. 16 VISEGRAD INSIGHT 2 (11) | 2017
POLITICS IN THE BUZZ EUROPE One paradoxical advantage we ing next to the EU’s Federica Mogherini, Does Poland at all need to be ready to have in NATO is that we have been the described hybrid threats as “a combination react and resist such kind of threats? target of disinformation for many years, of covert and overt operations and meas- What is the priority action for Poland? only the methods have changed some- ures: everything from propaganda, from On the one side, the Polish society is very what. Recognizing this, NATO’s Public disinformation to actually the use of regular resistant towards any misinformation Diplomacy Division (PDD) and other forces – from tweets to tanks.” campaigns directed by foreign countries. NATO representatives and experts are Returning to the challenges posed It is not easy to persuade Poles in believ- very active in organising and participating by Russia, it is interesting to compare our ing something which is not true as they in a variety of seminars and conferences, agendas and thus approaches. For NATO have a high level of awareness following debating both cyber and disinformation a “comprehensive approach” is a concept years of communist propaganda. On the threats (which often go together). These which aims to ensure synergy of different other hand, there is no state, including topics also come up high on the list of kinds of resources – civilian, military and Poland, which can ignore fully well fi- issues discussed with parliamentarians Strategic Communications – in order to as- nanced disinformation operations, some from all member states. This last point sure stability. To illustrate: for many years of them devised on individual basis and is crucial if we are to contribute to long- now, we have been working in order to sta- targeting specific recipients. term solutions, such as for example me- bilise Afghanistan. We know that ensuring One hears of plans of the Polish dia literacy projects. security is an essential task. Without secu- MOD to create a centre to deal with cyber International cooperation is essen- rity there can be no development. But sta- threats. This certainly sounds like a very tial. It is not a coincidence that among the ble institutions, rule of law, support of the good idea, a route taken by other allies too. 42 areas which were collectively defined local population and economic prospects But one should also take into account that as priorities for joint work by the EU and are in turn factors without which long-term potential opponents are always improving NATO, one of the first agreed items was security will not be guaranteed. their methods, and they are not stingy disinformation. Unfortunately one gets an impres- with resources, so our approach should be Recently, there was the ceremonial sion that from the Russian perspective, a a comprehensive one, using a mixture of opening of the Helsinki Centre of Excellence hybrid approach applied in many regions military and civilian capabilities and insti- for Countering Hybrid Threats. While es- in Europe and beyond is serving a very tutions, at both the state and local level. tablished under the EU aegis, this Centre different purpose which has more to do A good example of work in this do- has close links to NATO. The Secretary with destabilisation. For example, we are main was a conference (co-sponsored by General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, stand- well aware that 2/3 of negative online PDD) on hybrid threats hosted in Szczecin comments on social media about NATO’s in October. It brought together represent- enhanced Forward Presence (bringing atives from the Polish parliament, aca- many Allied troops to the Baltic States demia, the military, business and media. and Poland) are generated by Russian There were a lot of presentations and dis- online accounts operated by bots. And cussions on policies, best practices from these comments have nothing to do with divergent experiences: ranging from crisis the real debate, with transparency and management systems at a city level to air- the truth: they aim to denigrate, under- port security. But participants could also mine our governments, distract soldiers take part in a specialised workshop where and destabilise the region. business expertise was shared on practical solutions to improving security of cyber space, e.g. on protection from hackers’ at- tacks – which is badly needed today. Not only NATO and the EU should act but also on more local levels there should be coordinated actions. This is a very long-term process when it comes to such measures as raising awareness of citizens of dangers of hybrid threats and disinforma- tion, as teaching university students, im- proving resilience of critical infrastructure or honing the role of military forces. There are many good experts in Poland and their expertise should be fully utilised. But other Illustration: Paweł Kuczyński states, including those among the Visegrad Four, have a lot of very useful experience, be it on the government level or non-govern- mental organisations. So, it is very impor- tant to share our knowledge, our experience and available tools among states, organisa- tions and ordinary citizens. 17
ECONOMY SOCIAL MEDIA WHAT ARE MEDIA CONSUMPTION TRENDS IN V4 Advertisement market The following data was provided by the weCAN network and compiled from three CANNUAL reports, the most recent of which was released in October already knows which 2017. The network was formed by strong and successful independent agencies of Central and Eastern Europe. Created in 2010 by the Hungarian media are followed and full service agency Café Communications, weCAN covers 16 countries from generate value Estonia to Bulgaria and from Slovenia to Russia. 3 takeaways Set your revenue strategy around digital advertising. 1 This sector is rapidly growing and has a potential to from the CANNUAL be a larger part of the economy than in Germany and report for V4 many other EU countries. publishers and editors: Content marketing is more important than simple ads. 2 The digital sector is booming in V4 and has generated a high demand for digital content. 3 You have 3 seconds to go mobile. The biggest growth in the digital sector is in the area of mobile devices. In this medium, the attention span is dramatically short though weCAN ranking 2017 It attempts to estimate the economic importance of their advertising market. Selected countries. HUMAN GDP PER COUNTRY AD SPENDING weCAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX CAPITA INDEX PER CAPITA RANKING CZ — 0.878 CZ — 16,700 CZ — 119 CZ — 0.71% PL — 0.855 SK — 14,900 HU — 59 PL — 0.52% SK — 0.845 HU — 11,500 SK — 59 HU — 0.52% HU — 0.836 PL — 11,000 PL — 58 SK — 0.39% RO — 0.802 RO — 8,600 RO — 17 RO — 0.18% USA — 1.09% weCAN Ranking – a new tool for understanding prospects for advertising marked in CEE UK — 0.99% The weCAN ranking is an index that shows the percentage of the ad spending per capita within a country’s nominal GDP. We calculated both baseline data (GDP per capita and ad spending per capita) using the number of population older DE — 0.62% than 14 to ensure that the basis of the calculation only includes advertising target groups with independent purchasing power. The WeCAN ranking reveals whether the advertising market as an economic sector is stronger or weaker than what the overall economic performance of a country would suggest. source: Cannual 2017 Report 18 VISEGRAD INSIGHT 2 (11) | 2017
SOCIAL MEDIA ECONOMY Trends in advertising pie in Visegrad Countries Share of advertising budgets for different type of media Note: Hungarian numbers are unexpectedly high with advertisement campaigns 2014–2016, 2014 2015 2016 TV 29% 29% 31% Digital 47% 48% 45% Czech Press 13% 13% 15% CZ Radio 5% 4% 4% TV 31% 31% 30% Digital 30% 33% 37% Hungary Press 21% 19% 17% HU Radio 6% 5% 5% TV 47% 44% 43% Digital 31% 35% 38% Poland Press 9% 8% 6% PL Radio 7% 7% 7% TV 46% 44% 41% Digital 28% 32% 39% Slovakia Press 13% 12% 9% SK Radio 5% 5% 4% Internet penetration in the region online & ad spending per capita (EUR) 40.000 90% 82% 79% 35.000 75% 78% 74% 74% 80% 34,29 73% 69% 69% 66% 67% 67% 30.000 62% 62% 70% 25.000 60% 20.000 50% 15.000 15,89 15,68 40% 15,10 10.000 11,26 11,23 30% 9,13 5.000 5,21 10% 4,16 3,97 3,33 2,97 2,66 2,28 0 0% CZ PL HU SK SL EE RU LV LI HR BG RO RS UKR Online ad spending/capita Internet penetration 19
ECONOMY SOCIAL MEDIA The More Vulnerable to Disinformation than You Might Think MIRIAM LEXMANN P There’s no shortage of Russian “fake ublic opinion data is crucial to understand- ing how and why disinformation is gaining news” stories, “troll factories” and ground. A recent series of public opinion “disinformation” across the media, surveys by the International Republican yet the understanding of how this Institute (IRI) of the Visegrad Four (V4) countries and Germany revealed fascinating affects populations in Europe remains insights into areas of vulnerability and resil- ience to Russian disinformation. The polls were commissioned relatively unsophisticated. by IRI’s Beacon Project, an initiative that equips European It’s clear that there’s a problem, but stakeholders with the tools to counter Russian meddling and protect European democracy from the corrosive effects of less clear what can be done about it. disinformation. 20 VISEGRAD INSIGHT 2 (11) | 2017
SOCIAL MEDIA ECONOMY Correlation between trust in media and perceptions Correlation on the between state trust in of the country, media “ALTERNATIVE” outlook on the future MEDIA and perceptions on the state of the country, outlookright (using track on the / wrong track as a proxy). future (using right track / wrong track as a proxy). Correlation between38% HUNGARY: Overall trust 50% in media and perceptions on the state of the country, HUNGARY:on outlook Overall 38% 50% the future (using right track / wrong track as a proxy). Among those who think media is unbiased 42% 48% Among those who think media is unbiased 42% 48% HUNGARY: Overall 38% 50% Among those who think media is biased 20% 64% Among those who think media is biased 20% 64% Among those who think media is unbiased 42% 48% SLOVAKIA: Overall 40% 59% SLOVAKIA: Overall 40% 59% Among those who think media is biased 20% 64% Among those who think media is unbiased 49% 51% Among those who think media is unbiased 49% 51% Those who think media is unbiased SLOVAKIA: Overall 40% 59% Those V4 who think 33%media is unbiased Among those who think media is biased 28% 72% Germany V4 33%44% Among those who think media is biased 28% 72% Germany 44% Among those who think media is unbiased 49% 51% Those who get most of their news from CZECH: Overall 53% 45% state broadcasters Those Those who who think media get most is unbiased of their news from CZECH: Overall 53% 45% state broadcasters V4 V4 33% 33% Among those who think media is biased 28% 72% Germany V4 Germany 57%33% 44% Among those who think media is unbiased 59% 40% Germany 57% Among those who think media is unbiased 59% 40% Those Those who who get get most most of of their their news news from CZECH: Overall 53% 45% from state online sources broadcasters Those who get most of their news Among those who think media is biased 37% 59% from V4 V4 online sources 23% 33% Among those who think media is biased 37% 59% Germany Germany V4 57% 23% 11% Among those who think media is unbiased 59% 40% Germany 11% POLAND: Overall 31% 58% Those who read or watch get most “alternative” of their news media sources from Every online Day or Occasionally sources POLAND: Overall 31% 58% Those who read or watch “alternative” media Among those who think media is biased 37% 59% sources V4 V4 Every Day 31% or Occasionally 23% Germany V4 Germany 31% 14% 11% Among those who think media is unbiased 50% 37% Germany 14% Among those who think media is unbiased 50% 37% POLAND: Overall 31% 58% Those Those who who Never read orread or watch watch “alternative” media “alternative” sources Everymedia Dayread or Occasionally Among those who think media is biased 16% 78% Those who Never or watch “alternative” V4 V4 50%media 31% Among those who think media is biased 16% 78% Germany 75% Germany V4 50% 14% Among those who think media is unbiased 50% 37% Germany 75% GERMANY: Overall 42% 54% Those Those who who read Never“alternative” media & say they read or watch GERMANY: Overall 42% 54% do so because it is “fun and exciting” “alternative” Those media who read “alternative” media & say they Among those who think media is biased 16% 78% do V4 so because V4 50% it 25% is “fun and exciting” Among those who think media is unbiased 47% 51% Germany V4 Germany 75% 25% 16% Among those who think media is unbiased 47% 51% Germany 16% GERMANY: Overall 42% 54% Those who read “alternative” media & say they Among those who think media is biased 33% 61% do so because it is “fun and exciting” Among those who think media is biased 33% 61% source: The Center for Insights in Survey Research (a V4 project 25% of International Republican Institute), Ipsos Among those who think media is unbiased 47% 51% country Germany offices in the Czech16% Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Germany, 2017. Face-to-face interviews, samples: 1,016 in the Czech Among those who think media is biased 33% 61% Republic; 1,024 in Slovakia; 1,000 in Hungary; 1,020 in Poland; 1,630 in Germany 21
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