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Q3 2020 GREATER BOSTON MARKET
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
• Lab is still front and center, both in future development and
conversions; it’s the hottest asset type out there today. 105
W. First Street is moving forward thanks to a full building
lease from CRISPR, adding an anchor to the emerging A
Street Life Science Corridor. As of now, it appears that
projects underway at the start of the pandemic will continue
to move forward, with others hot on their heels. Winthrop
Center received approval to modify its plans on the residential
BOSTON OVERVIEW
component of its project, reducing the size and changing
from condos to for-rent apartments. The office component of
Winthrop Center is unchanged.
Conditions continue to soften in the Boston market. After a
record-setting decline in Q2, absorption struggled again in • Demand has slowed considerably since the start of the year,
Q3, when overall negative net absorption of 1.3 million SF as most tenants hesitate to sign long-term commitments
sent the vacancy rate up to 12.6%, its highest rate since Q1 or are unsure of future space needs, especially since rents
2013. Sublease space has flooded the market, adding a net have not declined significantly. Tech companies formerly
630,000 SF in the quarter. This marks the most sublease in aggressive growth modes have cooled, some reversing
space ever added to the market in a two-quarter period course with layoffs and space reductions. Employers from
of time, topping the figure in the early 2000s recession. across industries have delayed a return-to-work until 2021.
Meanwhile, rents have begun to weaken, though only While we haven’t seen big leases cancelled or tenants not
slightly, with Class B declining less than 1% in Q3. occupying space (as with Pinterest in San Francisco, or
REI in Portland, Oregon), leasing activity is just a fraction
Employees have hesitated to return to the office, as
of its normal market rate. Boston and the surrounding area
remote work has taken hold across many office-intensive
rank among the top spots across the country for VC funding
industries until the successful development and distribution
to cutting-edge technology — from autonomous vehicles,
of a COVID-19 vaccine. This is further delaying the ultimate
cybersecurity, IoT, robotics, AI/machine learning, and
decision-making of many firms, which are unable to project
biotech/life science — supporting new businesses going
their future space needs. The back-to-school challenges of
forward. Life science VC investment has never been stronger.
remote or hybrid education will keep many office workers
at home, at least part-time, for the foreseeable future. This
shift could profoundly affect office vacancies in Boston, but
it will take time to manifest. SOME OF THE LARGER REQUIREMENTS INCLUDE:
350K
50 Eaton Vance
12.6% 1.3M 2.7M
vacancy rate SF negative
absorption
SF total
sublease space
225K
Loomis Sayles & Co
Statistics in the core submarkets are as follows: 80K
VACANCY YTD 2020 Whoop
MARKET SEGMENT SUPPLY
RATE* ABSORPTION
Back Bay 13,379,652 9.7% (435,792)
Class A
Class B
11,549,046
1,830,606
9.4%
11.3%
(393,440)
(42,352)
70K
Sasaki
Financial District 34,354,264 13.4% (627,742)
Class A 28,676,597 12.1% (502,140)
Class B
Seaport
5,677,667
12,002,934
20.0%
16.2%
(125,602)
48,290
60K
American Well
Class A 5,964,295 12.3% 5,760
Class B 6,038,639 19.9% 42,530
45K
* includes sublease space
Tessera Therapeutics
Highlighted transactions from this quarter include:
RENTAL RATES
BOSTON
• Rents are showing limited signs of decline. In aggregate they
Back Bay Financial District Seaport Fenway
continue to hold, but differences are emerging between Class A
and B. Class B rents fell less than 1% in Q3. We had seen some
CRISPR | 105 W. First Street
adjustments in rents quarter-to-quarter at a building level in Q2,
Columbia Threadneedle | 290 Congress Street which continued in Q3. Landlords have been trying to hold on to
Chewy.com | 343 Congress Street face rents, but they increased concessions in the form of more
free rent or a higher tenant improvement allowance (i.e., turnkey
Pearson | 1 Federal Street
space). The surge in sublease space has caused Class B rents to
Citadel Investment Group | 28 State Street soften first. If history is a guide, it will take time for price discovery
Frontier Capital | 99 Summer Street and for rents to hit bottom. From there, rents tend to stabilize
before recovering, which can take years. With limited leasing
velocity, there are few deals to help set the market.
10K 20K 30K 40K 50K 60K 70K 80K 260K
Square Feet
The spread between asking rents in various segments of the
ABSORPTION, VACANCY, AND FORECAST market is depicted below:
• Absorption was negative in Q3, declining a net 1.3 million SF.
Vacancies rose to 12.6%, up 1.8 percentage points from last
quarter and 4.4 percentage points from one year prior, and are
now back to 2013 levels. Both Class A (negative 980,000 SF)
and Class B (negative 286,000 SF) vacancies increased. The
biggest difference was between direct and sublease vacancy. In
Q2 sublease space additions outpaced those of direct space, but
$80-$115 $65-$80 $60-$65 $50-$65
in the third quarter both increased about 630,000 SF. The North Class A High Rise Class A Mid Rise Class A Low Rise Class B
Station market has the highest ratio of sublease space, at 7.9%,
and also the highest vacancy level, 23.2%. LOOKING AHEAD...
• Neither Boston nor the U.S. economy has experienced the kind
of concerted, deliberate pullback in economic activity seen in
the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic figures have been ugly,
The outlook is unknowable. However, we are businesses are closing and will continue to close, and human
projecting limited business activity by year- lives are being lost to the virus, all together, not a normal end to
end, before a resumption next year, resulting a business cycle. In this situation, we have to take a wait-and-
in a lower absorption projection for 2020. At see approach, as past experience, while a helpful guide, is much
this time, we’re holding to our supply forecast less comparable, given the unprecedented nature of intentionally
pressing pause on almost all economic activity and then
in the chart below, with the caveat that project
restarting in a staggered approach.
completion dates could be adjusted, based on
• Coworking is showing signs of a retreat. Regus, Greater Boston’s
how social distancing affects timelines.
second-largest flexible office provider, has filed for bankruptcy
in some of its locations, including three in the Boston area,
while WeWork wants to get out of some of its space in Boston
(it has let leases lapse in other markets, and pulled out of other
locations across the country). The growth of coworking has been
Forecast | Vacancy & Absorption well documented, and if it unravels as an industry, it will only add
more stress to the office market as WeWork is Boston’s second-
4,000
Forecast
16%
largest tenant.
14%
3,000 13.1% 14%
2,000 12%
105 W 1st Street | CRISPR Deal
1,000 10%
Vacancy Rate
Boston, MA
SF (000s)
0 8% Source: www.bostonglobe.com
(1,000) 6%
(2,000) 4%
(3,000) 2%
(4,000) 0%
Absorption Supply Vacancy
OFFICE MARKET
• Office absorption was negative 163,000 SF in the third quarter. All
three submarkets posted negative absorption. Rents meanwhile
softened, however this is more a result of a changing sample size,
than true market weakness.
• Sublease space, while increasing, is modest. Overall levels are akin
to those at the end of 2019. While sublease space held flat at mid-
year, it increased by 80,000 SF in Q3.
Life science companies needing office space
are looking to Boston for growth or relocation,
CAMBRIDGE OVERVIEW particularly out of East Cambridge, for rent
The Cambridge market remains relatively unscathed by the savings north of $20/SF that could push beyond
ongoing global pandemic. With the biotech sector’s deep $30/SF. Case in point: bluebird bio plans to
strength in research and development, Cambridge-based
firms are at the forefront of COVID-19 research and therapies.
offer the office space at 50 Binney Street in
Tremendous capital flowing into life science from government Cambridge for sublease (it had subleased it
grants, NIH funding, M&A, and venture capital is essentially from Sanofi) with a number pushing $100/SF
speeding up our medical research. That should be good news
for startups and demand in the Cambridge and broader life
triple-net, to be available when Sanofi moves to
science marketplace into the future. its new headquarters in 2022. An increase in
Vacancies barely budged in the third quarter, up to 4.5%, and quality sublease space in Boston makes it even
rents softened slightly. However, given the low vacancy rates, more appealing for cost-conscious firms.
any change in direct vacancy can have an outsized impact on
rent levels. As Boston and the suburbs held flat, that is the
likely outcome in Cambridge as well. New development, which
is highly preleased, has yet to come on the market, and new
projects have recently been announced. Tenants continue to look
to Cambridge for expansion, as seen by Bristol-Myers Squibb’s LAB MARKET
recent deal at Cambridge Crossing.
• Lab vacancies are moving down — decreasing modestly to 1.7%
during the quarter — the opposite of the direction of office market
vacancies. Both direct and sublease lab space decreased. East
4.5% 80K 0.3%
Cambridge vacancies are pushing a record low.
• Bristol-Myers Squibb’s 360,000 SF lease at Cambridge Crossing
will help the firm consolidate operations under one roof. Its current
vacancy rate SF negative East Cambridge
absorption lab vacancy rate locations will likely be gobbled up before it even moves.
Key statistics for the quarter include:
The active tenant-in-the-market list shrunk
SUPPLY SF VACANCY ABSORPTION (000s)
MARKET
(000s) RATE Q3 2020 quickly at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Total Cambridge 24,721 4.5% (80) However, that list is filling back up. The current
active tenant requirement list is dominated
11,948 7.4% (163)
by Series A and early-stage firms, which are
seeing strong capital inflows from VC firms and
12,774 1.7% 83 a healthy IPO market.
CAMBRIDGE
LOOKING AHEAD…
• The underlying fundamentals of Massachusetts’ life science
market remain sound despite the COVID-19 outbreak. As the
global R&D epicenter, Cambridge is still at the forefront of
cutting-edge therapies and treatments for a wide range of
medical conditions. The life science industry has clustered
around Kendall Square for a number of reasons, chiefly
Bristol-Myers Squibb Lease
Cambridge Crossing | Cambridge, MA connections to both talent from MIT and mass transit.
Source: www.bldup.com
Highlighted active tenants and recent transactions are But competition is appearing. The A Street
shown in the tables below. Corridor in Boston, Harvard’s planned
expansion in Allston, and multiple locations
in Somerville all aim to become the next
200K “it” location for life science. The Cambridge
market will remain at the center of this
Ragon Institute
20 industry and drive growth, but in the years
ahead will have far more competition. In fact,
some of Cambridge’s largest landlords are
200K investing in new markets. BioMed recently
joined Somerville’s Xmbly development,
GSK
while Alexandria has focused on Watertown,
Waltham, and Boston.
150K
Smartlabs
• Alewife could be next in line for Cambridge’s surging life science
market growth. Across the train tracks from Cambridgepark
100K Drive, properties off Concord Avenue could be the next relief
valve, and recent investment/property turnover there suggests
TCR2 that redevelopment is not far off. Since Alewife is just a few
stops away on the Red Line, the area might offer alternatives
to East Cambridge firms needing space. Cambridge needs new
80K areas to emerge to maintain its competitive advantage because
of Kendall’s limited growth opportunities.
Constellation
VELOCITY
East Cambridge Alewife Harvard Square
Bristol-Myers Squibb
GCP Applied Technologies
Verve
Korro
QurAlis
0K 5K 10K 15K 20K 280K 285K 290K 360K
Square Feet
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Underway projects are driven by a mix of build-
to-suits (Olympus in Westborough) and life
science (225 Wyman St., Waltham; 75 Hayden
Ave., Lexington; 101 South St., Somerville).
SUBURBAN OVERVIEW
There are conversions underway in Watertown,
Waltham, and Lexington (among others), to make
Boston’s suburban market had a generally slow third quarter, save
buildings lab or lab-ready. Lab has become the
for the former Reebok campus in Canton coming off the market. main driver of the pipeline. And that looks to hold:
The property was purchased by Tufts, and removes the largest the next development cycle is becoming clearer,
block of vacancy in the suburbs. Outside of that, leasing velocity is
well below normal levels, like downtown Boston’s. Sublease space
with Alexandria recently purchasing a portfolio in
has started to increase (860,000 SF in the quarter), putting it in Waltham, including a development site, as well as
league with the surge of that space downtown. PTC’s sublease land in Watertown.
space at 140 Kendrick in Needham has been a bright spot, with
strong interest and additional LOIs signed in the quarter. Overall
suburban vacancies moved up 1.3 percentage points in the third
quarter, to 17.2%. Lab has been the best story, posting positive
• Life science has been a key driver across Greater Boston, and
absorption on the year, while office has turned negative.
the suburbs are no exception. Year-to-date, lab accounts for
There is talk in the market, though we have yet to see it, of a all positive suburban absorption. Two million SF of life science
trend to move back to the suburbs. Some groups are considering growth has come to the suburbs, including lab/manufacturing
suburban offices in addition to their urban spaces. While we space in recent years, and 75 Hayden Ave. in Lexington will
do not expect a reversal in the urbanization trend of recent deliver fully occupied in Q4 after strong leasing.
years, opportunities exist for landlords. At the end of the day, a
• The suburbs’ highly educated workforce has been driving strong
diversified base of industries and a rapidly expanding life science
demand from numerous industries and business categories.
market have been and remain the backbone of suburban Boston’s
The suburban markets have long been dominated by technology
office market.
companies, but technology has evolved to software as a service
(SaaS), 3-D printing, robotics, manufacturing, and life sciences,
now current and future drivers of the market. Healthcare and
medical and business services have remained key drivers.
17.2% 1.5M FLAT
vacancy rate SF negative quarterly
absorption rent movement
“The Block”
Canton, MA
Aggregate statistics for the office and lab market Source: www.bizjournal.com | les vants photography
are provided below:
MARKET/ VACANCY ABSORPTION SF
SUPPLY SF (000s)
SUBMARKETS RATE Q3 2020
Suburban Boston 123,666 17.2% (1,454)
Inner Suburbs 6,876 14.1% (150)
Route 128 68,296 14.6% (251)
Route 495 45,602 21.7% (938)
Worcester 2,892 16.7% (115)
SUBURBAN
Some of the larger requirements include:
50 150K
ZoomInfo
150K
Translate Bio
90K
Siemens • Rents held flat in the third quarter in aggregate, continuing
their pattern from the start of the year. However, as vacancies
60K
started to rise in the third quarter, the suburbs’ most expensive
submarkets, 128 Mass Pike, 128 Northwest, and Inner Suburbs,
Ophthalmic Consultants have shown signs of rent declines. As in Boston, concessions
of Boston to get a deal over the finish line are now more common.
50K LOOKING AHEAD…
6 River Systems/Shopify
40K
• The future of work is an open-ended question: how much space
tenants will need in a post-pandemic world is unknown. Where
Vicarious Surgical employees work is likely to become more flexible, and a distributed
workforce has been floated as a possible future space-planning
strategy. Will this cause a sea change in the suburbs? Tenant
Some of the larger transactions during the quarter included:
relocations out of Boston have been limited to small firms, but
some larger operations are considering the move. Life science and
Inner Suburbs Route 128 Route 495 Worcester
tech have been pushed out of Cambridge for years, but that hasn’t
happened yet in Boston. With substantial projects around the Mass
Azzur Group Pike coming up in the years ahead, some suburban flight could be
Affinia Therapeutics just around the corner.
Integral Health
Dragonfly Therapeutics
The Hilb Group of New England LLC
The future of large blocks is the key to
Meta Systems
the suburbs’ rebound. They have been
5K 10K 15K 20K 25K 30K 35K 40K 45K 50K 55K 60K dealing with large-scale vacant blocks
Square Feet
caused by space givebacks from State
Street, Computershare, Eisai, Oracle,
Sanofi, Philips, and others, while upcoming
ABSORPTION, VACANCY, AND FORECAST
losses from Puma and more fallout from
• Absorption took a sharp turn down in the third quarter, by Sanofi are next. These big blocks weigh
negative 1.5 million SF, the first quarter with such losses since on the suburban market: Spaces larger
the first quarter of 2009. These losses were widespread in
than 100,000 SF account for 28% of total
markets, except 128 South, supported by the completion of two
build-to-suit projects for Meketa and Citizens Bank, and Tufts’ vacancy. As these big blocks go, so goes
purchase of the former Reebok campus, dubbed The Block. Both the suburban market.
direct and sublease space increased, after holding steady at
midyear. Vacancies are back to 17.2%, reminiscent of early 2018
levels.
CAPITAL MARKETS OFFICE/LAB
SALES AND HIGHLIGHTS 1 UPLAND ROAD
NORWOOD
• The debt markets are alive and well. Interest rates
are favorable, and lenders are back in the game.
BUYER: ALEXANDRIA REAL
ESTATE EQUITIES
Transaction volumes have slumped, a PRICE: $97,783,696
national phenomenon, but should start to PSF: $440
improve later this year, into next, as deals
have started to come back to the market.
• International capital sources are still looking, focused
on core. A persistent low-interest-rate environment OFFICE/LAB
will drive investors to real estate over time.
151 CAMPANELLI DRIVE
• Lab and industrial are the favored asset classes. MIDDLEBOROUGH
Triple-net deals with term are easier to transact. The
inherent growth within e-commerce and life science
is a major positive in favor of these asset classes. BUYER: BOYD WATTERSON
ASSET MANAGEMENT
PRICE: $15,900,000
PSF: $272
OFFICE/LAB OFFICE/LAB
40-50-60 SYLVAN ROAD 405 COCHITUATE ROAD
WALTHAM FRAMINGHAM
BUYER: ALEXANDRIA REAL BUYER: R.J. KELLY COMPANY
ESTATE EQUITIES PRICE: $12,400,000
PRICE: $330,000,000 PSF: $291
PSF: $644
OFFICE/LAB OFFICE/LAB
36-64 WHITTEMORE AVE 60 HICKORY DRIVE
CAMBRIDGE WALTHAM
BUYER: IQHQ BUYER: KHS MANAGEMENT
PRICE: $125,000,000 PRICE: $12,050,000
PSF: $435 PSF: $208
CAPITAL MARKETS
MULTI-FAMILY INDUSTRIAL
BELL STOUGHTON 3 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE
400 TECHNOLOGY CENTER DRIVE, PEABODY
STOUGHTON
BUYER: WHEELOCK STREET CAPITAL
BUYER: BELL PARTNERS
PRICE: $30,100,000
PRICE: $71,650,000
PSF: $189
$/UNIT: $298,541
MULTI-FAMILY INDUSTRIAL
56-58 WALNUT STREET 97 AND 103 WOOD STREET
56-58 WALNUT STREET, SOMERVILLE MIDDLEBOROUGH
BUYER: SAVAGE PROPERTIES BUYER: THE SEYON GROUP
PRICE: $8,750,000 PRICE: $26,805,000
PSF: $795,454 PSF: $125
RETAIL INDUSTRIAL
BRISTOL SQUARE 25 COMPUTER DRIVE
1428 MAIN STREET, WALPOLE HAVERHILL
BUYER: CROSSPOINT ASSOCIATES BUYER: EASTERN REAL ESTATE
PRICE: $9,200,000 PRICE: $14,000,000
PSF: $471 PSF: $100
RETAIL INDUSTRIAL
21-29 BEALE STREET 15 RIVERDALE AVE
21-29 BEALE STREET, QUINCY NEWTON
BUYER: KWAN HA CHAN BUYER: CRITERION DEVELOPMENT
PARTNERS
PRICE: $5,180,000
PRICE: $13,260,000
PSF: $441
PSF: $250
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MARKET SNAPSHOT
Q3 2020 STATISTICS | OFFICE & LAB / CLASS A & CLASS B
SQUARE FEET (SF) DIRECT SF SUBLEASE SF CURRENT YTD
MARKET VACANCY*
SUPPLY AVAILABLE AVAILABLE ABSORPTION ABSORPTION
BOSTON 72,329,609 6,368,610 2,717,846 12.6% (1,266,486) (2,931,430)
BACK BAY 13,379,652 704,820 589,562 9.7% (435,792) (726,134)
FINANCIAL DISTRICT 34,354,264 3,207,439 1,390,515 13.4% (627,742) (1,443,346)
ALLSTON / BRIGHTON 962,443 0 19,000 2.0% - (19,000)
CHARLESTOWN 2,787,176 279,399 65,906 12.4% (75,291) (177,294)
CROSSTOWN 1,025,000 52,371 0 5.1% (34,521) (49,918)
FENWAY / KENMORE 4,257,995 71,077 81,469 3.6% 1,931 (79,538)
NORTH STATION 2,245,004 344,221 177,410 23.2% (121,709) (274,014)
SEAPORT 12,002,934 1,593,003 345,801 16.2% 48,290 (99,873)
SOUTH STATION 1,315,141 116,280 48,183 12.5% (21,652) (62,313)
CAMBRIDGE 24,721,343 645,962 466,507 4.5% (80,345) 331,785
ALEWIFE STATION / ROUTE 2 3,040,614 221,999 185,165 13.4% (12,883) 244,273
EAST CAMBRIDGE 19,781,234 346,248 229,478 2.9% (42,399) 90,779
HARVARD SQUARE / MASS AVE 1,899,495 77,715 51,864 6.8% (25,063) (3,267)
SUBURBS 123,665,783 18,278,387 2,996,093 17.2% (1,453,506) (1,099,185)
INNER SUBURBS 6,875,904 883,346 84,160 14.1% (149,723) (114,483)
ROUTE 128 NORTH 7,418,401 1,173,509 16,582 16.0% (241,900) (266,578)
ROUTE 128 NORTHWEST 21,346,456 2,415,798 381,710 13.1% (241,900) (331,322)
ROUTE 128 MASS PIKE 22,739,404 2,867,924 813,837 16.2% (348,752) 132,050
ROUTE 128 SOUTH 16,791,359 1,794,382 480,756 13.5% 581,236 732,333
ROUTE 495 NORTH 21,028,418 4,350,533 551,791 23.3% (326,496) (414,935)
ROUTE 495 WEST 21,346,820 4,090,360 488,280 21.4% (506,765) (538,963)
ROUTE 495 SOUTH 3,227,097 319,753 78,977 12.4% (104,672) (88,001)
WORCESTER 2,891,924 382,782 100,000 16.7% (114,534) (209,286)
MARKET TOTALS 220,716,735 25,292,959 6,180,446 14.3% (2,800,337) (3,698,830)
*Including sublease space
CONTACT:
AARON JODKA DION SORRENTINO NICK DESSALINES
Director of Research Research Analyst Research Analyst
+1 617 330 8059 +1 617 330 8148 +1 617 330 8145
FOLLOW US:
aaron.jodka@colliers.com dion.sorrentino@colliers.com nick.dessalines@colliers.com
Colliers International | 160 Federal Street | Boston, MA 02110 www.colliers.com
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