20 CHARTS FOR 2020 NEI MARKET OUTLOOK - NEI 2020 MARKET OUTLOOK - NEI Investments
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Great global uncertainty leads to… record high stock prices?
Opinions as of December 13, 2019
It’s been said many times that “markets hate our global sub-advisors. In one form or another, the As we look forward to the 2020s, we expect climate
uncertainty.” Well, not in 2019. charts we’ve included speak to the following main points: change and other responsible investing themes to
dominate the financial headlines. These themes will
In fact, data to November 30 show the S&P 500 hit 19 • We do not expect a global recession as central become more important to our political, regulatory and
new highs in 2019 and is on track to end the year with a banks maintain accommodative policies, with room financial systems, creating opportunity for those willing
total return of roughly 28% in U.S. dollar terms. The for governments to add fiscal stimulus if needed. to adapt and risks for those who are not. As Canada’s
S&P/TSX Composite has also been notching record leader in responsible investing, we welcome these
highs as it closes in on a year-to-date total return of 22%. • Stocks are likely to rise further, but we don’t changes and believe the 2020s will be a decade of true
And it’s not just equities powering ahead. Bonds have expect next year’s returns to be as impressive as impact, where responsible investors can help improve
also had a strong year, with some markets delivering last year’s. the world’s environmental and social conditions in
double-digit returns (as well as negative yields…). meaningful ways.
• Longer term, we expect equity leadership to rotate
All this at a time of record policy uncertainty; the U.S.- out of the U.S. and into international and emerging
China trade war; the slowest global economic growth markets, but we need more concrete evidence the
since the Great Recession; the neverending saga known global economy is rebounding before taking a
as Brexit; and a U.S. president facing impeachment and stronger stance.
an election. And now we can finally add this: a growing
acknowledgement of the risk of climate change to the • Given global uncertainties, bonds will continue to
financial system, courtesy of global central banks. be an important part of portfolios, but expect lower
returns than what we got in 2019.
So, what’s next? • We expect the policy response to climate change to
rise ever higher on the priority list of global financial
To help you prepare for client conversations about what leaders, which will in turn find its way into asset John Bai, CFA
could be in store for markets next year, we offer 20 prices, with both positive and negative impacts. VP and Chief Investment Officer
charts for 2020, assembled in collaboration with many of NEI Investments
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OUTLOOK 22019: A strong year for most asset classes
Stocks and bonds performed exceptionally well in 2019. Many indices closed not just at or near the highest level of the year,
but at or near their highest levels on record.
YTD performance of 20 asset classes
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
Gold
International Equity
US HY Bonds
Crude Oil (WTI)
Emerging Market Equity
US Large Cap Equity
Developed Market Equity
USD (vs. CAD)
EUR (vs. CAD)
Canadian Large Cap Equity
Global Equity (Growth)
Commodities (BoC Index)
USD (Trade Weight)
Global Equity (Value)
US IG Bonds
Canadian Cash
US Small Cap Equity
Canadian IG Bonds
Canadian Small Cap Equity
Global IG Bonds
EQUITIES FIXED INCOME COMMODITIES CURRENCIES
Source: Bloomberg and Morningstar, data as of November 30, 2019.
2020
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OUTLOOK 3The economic backdrop
While we do not see recession on the horizon, we do
expect continued slower global growth in 2020
Downside risks remain elevated as uncertainty abounds
2020
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OUTLOOK 4Secular trends point to slower growth ahead in developed economies
Shrinking workforce + declining productivity growth = lower potential growth across developed economies. Expect this to
result in lower equity returns and the ongoing suppression of bond yields.
Working age population as % of total population Annual change in GDP per hour worked
70% 3.0%
2.5%
68%
2.0%
66%
1.5%
1.0%
64%
0.5%
62%
0.0%
60% -0.5%
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK US
Canada Euro Area Japan US All OECD 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2014 2014-2018
Source: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, data accessed November 30, 2019.
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OUTLOOK 5Global growth increasingly driven by emerging economies
The growth and maturation of emerging economies will present ever-increasing investment opportunities outside
North America.
World economy breakdown
• Emerging economies made
100%
up only 25% of the world’s
economy in 1980
• By the end of 2019, emerging
75%
economies are expected to
make up 40% of world GDP
50%
25%
0%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
Advanced Economies Emerging Economies
Source: International Monetary Fund, data accessed November 30, 2019.
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OUTLOOK 6Emerging economies expected to grow at twice the pace of developed economies
Over the next year, the anticipated economic rebound in emerging economies could lead to outperformance of EM equities,
debt and currencies.
World DM EM • Economic growth likely to
slow further for developed
economies in 2020
4.9 • Emerging economies
3.8 expected to rebound slightly
4.4
4.2
3.2 3.2 in 2020
• Gap between developed and
emerging markets is expected
2.2 to widen, though downside
1.7 risks continue to dominate
1.4
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Source: Amundi Research forecast, data as of November 4, 2019.
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OUTLOOK 7U.S. economic growth driven by strong consumer spending
Despite the presence of global macro headwinds, a strong domestic economy will likely prevent a U.S.-led recession in 2020.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
• Consumer confidence is an
120 100
important leading indicator,
90 used to estimate future
80
consumption behaviour
100
70
• Confidence tends to stem
from job security and wage
60
satisfaction, providing insight
80 50 into the labour market
40
30
60
20
10
40 0
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
U.S. Recession
Source: Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan, University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment © [UMCSENT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT, November 19, 2019.
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OUTLOOK 8Uptick in key leading indicator a sign of hope
Some Composite Purchasing Managers’ Indices may have bottomed in September 2019, with a continued rebound acting
as a potential driver of further equity upside.
Composite Purchasing Managers’ Indices
• Germany and the larger
56
eurozone showing a notable
55 bounce-back
• China, emerging markets
54
rising since June 2019
53 • Developed markets overall
still headed lower – but for
52
how long?
51
50
49
48
Nov 2018 Dec 2018 Jan 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Apr 2019 May 2019 Jun 2019 Jul 2019 Aug 2019 Sep 2019 Oct 2019
Developed Markets US Eurozone Germany Emerging Markets China Expansion/contraction
Source: Bloomberg, data as of November 30, 2019.
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OUTLOOK 9Policy uncertainty at record high, driven by trade tensions
The abatement or escalation of historically high trade tensions can have a significant impact on markets on a
day-to-day basis.
U.S. Categorical Policy Uncertainty Index
• Current concern over trade
2,000
Monetary policy
policy is having a greater impact
1,800
Fiscal Policy
on overall sentiment than any
1,600 National security
other factor in recent past
Trade policy • Risk of U.S./China trade tension
1,400
Sovereign debt, currency crises spreading to other regions –
1,200 U.S. Recession notably Europe and Japan – has
1,000 hurt business and investor
sentiment
800
600
400
200
0
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Source: “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty” by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis at www.PolicyUncertainty.com.
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OUTLOOK 10
10Monetary and fiscal policy
Central banks have responded to slowing growth by
lowering interest rates and increasing balance sheets
Additional stimulus from fiscal policy is available if needed
Central banks are increasingly turning their attention to
climate change as a key risk to financial stability
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OUTLOOK 11
11U.S. Fed rate cuts may neutralize once-reliable recession indicator
Proactiveness of U.S. central bank is another reassuring sign that a recession may not come just yet.
U.S. yield curve, Federal Reserve rate, and recessions
• Inverted yield curve (dark blue
400bps
line falling below orange line)
20% has consistently preceded past
300bps
recessions
200bps • Overly tight monetary policy
15%
stifles economic growth, and a
100bps closer look reveals the Fed has
raised rates in the lead-up to
10%
0bps each yield curve inversion
• This time, the Fed has cut rates
-100bps
5% prior to August 2019 yield curve
-200bps
inversion, preventing a longer
and more pronounced period of
-300bps 0% inversion.
1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009 2015
U.S. Recession 2s10s (LHS) Fed Funds Rate (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, data as of November 30, 2019.
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OUTLOOK 12
12How much lower can central banks go?
With rates at rock bottom (and below zero), central banks will have to forego a primary policy tool for combatting crisis
conditions like what we saw in 2008.
Central bank policy rates
• 2019 saw another wave of
9%
global central bank easing amid
8% softening economic data and
7% escalating trade uncertainty
6% • Most developed nations
5% already have policy rates below
4%
the rate of inflation, meaning
majority of policy rates around
3%
the world are actually negative
2%
in real terms
1%
0%
-1%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Eurozone Australia Canada Japan South Korea New Zealand
Norway Sweden Switzerland UK US China
Source: Bloomberg, data as of November 30, 2019.
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OUTLOOK 13
13New ECB president may help shift focus to fiscal policy in eurozone
Christine Lagarde may attempt to improve coordination between monetary and fiscal policies.
Public investment as % of GDP
• Christine Lagarde took over as
6.0 ECB president in November,
making the case for investing
5.0 “in a common future that is
more productive, more digital
4.0 and greener”
• Eurozone austerity measures
3.0
since 2011 have brought down
the amount of public investment
2.0 as % of GDP, so this has
significant room to grow
1.0
0.0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Germany Ireland Spain France Italy Netherlands Portugal
Source: Eurostat, data accessed November 2019.
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14Central banks acting on climate change
Almost 50 central banks and regulators have formed Central Banks and Supervisors’ Network for Greening the Financial
System, defining best practices in climate risk management.
Number of Central Banks that have adopted environmental activities by type
55 The importance of climate-related
issues for financial stability and
Green network membership
monetary policy have become
45 Green lending guidelines or green bond program
increasingly clear. This is
ESG risk incorporation
particularly true for Canada, where
35 resources play a vital role in our
economy and where the natural
25
environment is a defining feature
of our national identity.”
15 – Bank of Canada Governor
Stephen Poloz
5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-5
Source: Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-23/no-laughing-matter-how-climate-change-is-scaring-central-banks
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OUTLOOK 15
15Bonds
We don’t expect double digit returns to repeat in 2020 –
we’d likely need a recession for that
We emphasize more defensive positioning:
• Higher quality investment grade credit
• Shorter duration
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16Core bond yields expected to stay low
Yields should stay in a low range as major developed economies continue to experience slow growth next year; expect bond
volatility around trade concerns.
Inflation – developed economies 10-year bond yields – developed economies
4% 4%
3% 3%
2% 2%
1% 1%
0% 0%
-1% -1%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Canada U.S. Eurozone U.K. Japan Target Canada U.S. Eurozone U.K. Japan
Source: Bloomberg. Inflation data as of October 31, 2019; bond yield data as of November 30, 2019. 2019–2021 projections are based on Bloomberg consensus
estimates. Bloomberg consensus estimates for both inflation and bond yields are indicated with dotted lines.
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OUTLOOK 17
17Respect credit cycles
U.S. firms are more leveraged than ever, but this risk is not currently reflected in credit spreads.
U.S. corporate debt versus credit spreads
49 18
• Historically, high yield
spreads have been closely
16
47
correlated with an increase in
14 corporate debt
45 12 • Since the 2008 financial crisis,
loose monetary policy has
10
43 lowered borrowing costs and
8 encouraged corporations to
41 6 take on more debt
4
39
2
37 0
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
U.S. Recessions U.S. Nonfinancial corporate debt/GDP (% LHS) U.S. high yield spread (% RHS)
Source: Haver Analytics, Ned Davis Research, Bloomberg, QV Investors. Data as of December 1, 2019.
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OUTLOOK 18
18Stocks
We expect equities to outperform bonds over
the next year
Regionally, we see opportunity in international
and emerging market equities
From a style perspective, value may be making
a comeback
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OUTLOOK 19
19U.S. by far the strongest stock market since 2009 crisis low
The longest bull market on record has helped drive the S&P 500 to a gain of more than 300%, while the S&P/TSX Composite,
MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Market indices have lagged significantly.
Total equity returns for major regions (C$)
350%
Canada
300%
U.S.
250% International
Emerging Markets
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source. Bloomberg, data as of November 30, 2019.
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20International equities: comparable earnings growth, cheaper valuations
While rest of the world has lagged the U.S. in terms of historical equity performance, the fundamentals favour international
equities going forward.
Equity characteristics: U.S. versus rest of world
101.0%
S&P 500
ACWI Ex US
63.0%
23.2x 20.8x
15.9% 17.0x 16.1x 16.5x
10.4x
6.7% 6.7%
0.6%
EPS Growth (trailing) EPS Growth (forward) Price/Earnings (trailing) Price/Earnings (forward) Price/Cash Flows Debt/Equity
Source: Factset, data as of November 2019. Index shown for comparison purposes only.
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OUTLOOK 21
21Lower interest rates supportive of equities
Equity risk premiums (ERP) have risen globally versus year-ago levels; ERP around the world suggest equity markets
outside the U.S. hold more opportunity.
The equity risk premium is the
difference between the earnings CANADA
ERP Sep 2019:
yield and the 10-year U.S. U.K. CHINA
ERP Sep 2019:
Treasury, representing the “extra” 5.8% ERP Sep 2019:
return you receive for owning 7.6% 5.8%
equities over bonds.
GERMANY
U.S. ERP Sep 2019:
ERP Sep 2019: JAPAN
8.3% ERP Sep 2019:
4.2% 7.8%
BRAZIL
ERP Sep 2019:
AUSTRALIA
0.8% ERP Sep 2019:
> 7%
5% – 7% 5.1%
< 5%
Numbers may not sum due to rounding. Source: FactSet, MSCI and AB, data as of September 30, 2019.
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22Canadian equity dividend yield higher than long bond yield
Investors can earn better income from stocks than bonds, but volatility risks are higher with stocks.
S&P/TSX dividend yield versus 10-year Govt Canada bond yield
• Bond yields and inflation have
20
both been falling on a secular
18 basis since the early 1980’s
16
• The dividend yield on the
14 Canadian stocks have slowly
12 risen over the past twenty years
10 • On a cross-asset class basis,
8 data suggest stocks are likely
6 the better investment from a
4
yield perspective, though full
2
equity valuations plus elevated
macro risk warrant a cautious
0
approach
Aug-83
Nov-84
Aug-88
Nov-89
Aug-93
Nov-94
Aug-98
Nov-99
Aug-03
Nov-04
Aug-08
Nov-09
Aug-13
Nov-14
Aug-18
Nov-19
May-82
May-87
May-92
May-97
May-02
May-07
May-12
May-17
Feb-81
Feb-86
Feb-91
Feb-96
Feb-01
Feb-06
Feb-11
Feb-16
TSX Dividend Yield Canada Long Bond Yield
Source: Bloomberg, data as of November 2019.
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23Value stocks underperformance versus growth stocks near record levels
Value stocks displaying compelling risk/reward characteristics
Rolling 10-year total return difference: FAMA-French HML (value vs growth)
• Relative to growth, value
14% is experiencing its weakest
12%
performance in nearly
8 decades
10%
• Underperformance gap
8% between value and growth
exceeds that of the tech
6%
bubble and is second only to
4% the Great Depression
2% • Opportunities to find quality
and value have opened up in
0%
Tech Bubble industrials, financials and
-2% energy sectors
Great Depression Recently
-4%
1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Source: Kenneth French, QV Investors, Data as of December 31, 2018: http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html
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OUTLOOK 24
24The global plastics problem – an opportunity for the responsible investor
From 1950 to 2015, plastic waste production has soared across major sectors.
Other
Textiles The transition to a more
sustainable economy presents
Primary Plastic Waste Generation (in Mt)
Industrial Machinery
Consumer & Institutional Products opportunities for investors and
Electrical/Electronic risks to companies that choose
Building & Construction to ignore strong trends in
Transportation changing consumer preferences
Packaging for more sustainable products,
advances in technology and
innovation, changing global
regulations, and the impact of
larger societal factors.”
Source: Cosmos Magazine, “Global plastic waste totals 4.9 billion tonnes,” July 20, 2017: https://cosmosmagazine.com/society/global-plastic-waste-totals-4-9-billion-tonnes; GEYER, JAMBECK, LAW,
‘SCIENCE ADVANCES’, JULY 2017.
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25The “first corporate casualty of climate change”
California-based utility company PG&E named the “first corporate casualty of climate change” by The Wall Street Journal
after it sought bankruptcy protection in January 2019.
Stock Price of PG&E
• PG&E named the “first
80
corporate casualty of climate
California wildfires of late 2017 among
70 most damaging on record change” by The Wall Street
Journal
60 • After facing more than
US$30 billion in liabilities
50
related to wildfires, PG&E
40
sought bankruptcy protection
PG&E faces deeper scrutiny over
in January 2019
30 responsibility for 2017/2018 wildfires • The utility company has been
20
found responsible for the
destruction of hundreds of
10 PG&E seeks bankruptcy protection
acres of land
in Jan 2019
0
2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Source: Bloomberg. Data as of November 27, 2019.
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26Too few companies reacting to the challenges of climate change
The Transition Pathway Initiative says 21% of companies do not disclose enough information to allow investors to understand
their exposure to the transition to a low-carbon economy, presenting an opportunity for shareholder engagement.
Alignment to Paris Agreement benchmarks by sector
100%
1 1 2 2 2020 should be the year when a
1 1
90%
3 2
strategic focus on climate change
5
80% 4
12 becomes a necessity and those
2
companies who are ahead of the
70%
10 trend should flourish. Investors
4 4
60% can play an important part in this
8 9
50%
9 by engaging with companies to
14 3 facilitate and encourage the
40%
14 transition, particularly in those
30% sectors which continue to lag.”
10 16
20% 3 7 8
10%
2 1
0%
1 1
Airlines Autos Aluminium Cement Paper Steel Electricity Oil & Gas
No disclosure Not aligned Paris aligned 2 degrees aligned Below 2 degrees aligned
Source: http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/tpi/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/TPI-State-of-Transition-Summit-presentation-20190712.pdf
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27Summary
We do not expect a global recession as central banks maintain accommodative
policies, with room for governments to add fiscal stimulus if needed.
Stocks are likely to rise further, but we don’t expect next year’s returns to be as
impressive as last year’s.
Longer term, we expect equity leadership to rotate out of the U.S. and into
international and emerging markets, but we need more concrete evidence the
global economy is rebounding before taking a stronger stance.
Given global uncertainties, bonds will continue to be an important part of
portfolios, but expect lower returns than in 2019.
We expect the policy response to climate change to rise ever higher on the
priority list of global financial leaders, which will in turn find its way into asset
prices, with both positive and negative impacts.
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OUTLOOK 28
28Summary
As we look forward to the 2020s, we expect climate change and other responsible
investing themes to dominate the financial headlines.
These themes will become more important to our political, regulatory and financial
systems, creating opportunity for those willing to adapt and risks for those who are not.
As Canada’s leader in responsible investing, we welcome these changes and believe
the 2020s will be a decade of true impact, where responsible investors can help
improve the world’s environmental and social conditions in meaningful ways.
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29The bottom line
We remain optimistic the economic cycle
will continue to be supportive of stocks over
bonds, though as always, we take a balanced
approach in our portfolio solutions to insulate
investors from ongoing volatility and the
potential for a more pronounced downturn.
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30The outlook
As we look forward to the 2020s, we
expect responsible investing themes to
dominate the financial headlines creating
opportunity for those who are willing
to adapt and risks for those who are not.
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OUTLOOK 31
31neiinvestments.com
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus and/or Fund Facts before
investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. NEI Investments is a registered trademark of Northwest &
Ethical Investments L.P. Northwest & Ethical Investments Inc., is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Aviso Wealth Inc. (“Aviso”). Aviso is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Aviso Wealth
Limited Partnership (“Aviso Wealth LP”), which in turn is owned 50% by Desjardins Financial Holdings Inc. (“Desjardins”) and 50% by a limited partnership owned by the five
Provincial Credit Union Centrals (the “Centrals”) and the CUMIS Group Limited.
Views expressed regarding a particular security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any funds managed by NEI Investments.
This material is for informational and educational purposes and it is not intended to provide specific advice including, without limitation, investment, financial, tax or similar matters.
Please consult with your own professional advisor on your particular circumstances.
The views expressed herein are subject to change without notice as markets change over time. NEI Investments endeavors to ensure that the contents have been compiled or
derived from sources that we believe are reliable and contain information that is accurate and complete. However, NEI Investments makes no representation or warranty, express
or implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions contained herein.
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OUTLOOK 32You can also read