WORKING WITH INBOUND TOUR OPERATORS - Regional Tourism NZ Presenter: Lynda Keene 7 December 2021 - West Coast
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WORKING WITH INBOUND TOUR OPERATORS Regional Tourism NZ Presenter: Lynda Keene 7 December 2021
ITO Bookings Next 3 Seasons As at 4 Oct 2021 What markets are ITOs holding bookings for? • USA/Canada 59%, Australia 53%, UK/Europe 40%, Germany 34%, China 23%, Singapore 19%, Taiwan 19%, Hong Kong 14% • 78% of ITOs are holding bookings for Jan-June 2022 period • 63% of ITOs are holding bookings July- October 2022 period • 68% of ITOs holding bookings for 2022-23 season • 38% of ITOs holding bookings for 2023-24 season
International / Offshore Market Intel Oct-Dec 2021 • USA/Canada – demand is high but now shifting to open countries as wouldn’t want to do MIQ. Lack of a plan from NZ is frustrating. A bit of nervousness about long-haul • UK, Germany – demand is high but wouldn’t do MIQ and can’t understand strict border stance and frustration around lack of plan. Some may travel to Australia instead if their border opens first and won’t be back to NZ as it’s their once in a lifetime trip down-under. • Australia – demand is high, might lose outbound to other countries that are open • Asia will open up in a much slower pace and more fractured way. South Korea and Singapore of more interest at the moment than Australia and NZ • Singapore will continue to be the hub and spoke for Asia travel. Keen to travel, high savings rate • China has no travel outbound/inbound status at the moment. NZ interest is high. • Japan – strong demand for package, series and one off tours but not if MIQ required.
More Trends
• 65% of the world is open to receive visitors
• 57% of US market will travel
• 67% of Asia Pacific market will travel
• 65% Europe, Middle East, Asia
• Health and safety priority for all independent, group and incentive travel
• Fully vaccinated visitors with negative PCR test from home country is standard
• When new destinations open, there is a big surge of enquiry levels
• Flexible and refundable travel policies needed
• Smaller group sizes
• Important information needed for bookings:
• How often are you staff tested?
• Where are nearest medical facilities?
• Advise if your business requires you to wear a mask or not wear a maskForecast of International Visitors/$ Returning YE May 2022-2025
TECNZ’s arrival and visitor spend forecasts for 30 countries based on research and assumptions noted below. The forecasts form a
roadmap for NZ’s international tourism recovery on a market basis and are based on no self-isolation requirement for visitors.
Assumptions: Visitor Market Return:
• Airline connectivity • Australia from 1 Apr 2021
• Quarantine Free Travel (QFT) • USA from 1 May 2022 2022
• No self-isolation for international travellers • China/Asia from 1 May 2022
• Propensity to travel • UK/Europe from 1 Sep 2022
• Demand from offshore wholesale agents/clients
• Digital passports compulsory for international travel
• Health declaration passport to prove vaccination
• Negative PCR test, LAMP or antigen pre-travel to NZ
• Rapid antigen or lateral flow test for arrivals at border
• Contact tracing APP linked to vaccination record
• Saliva testing for visitors and businesses
• Geo-political/economic status in source country
COVID trends
Spreadsheets showing return on a per country
basis over 4 years are available on our
Source: TECNZ updated 22 November 2021 website or contact our office.International Tourism Recovery Plan 2022-2025
Border Jan-Mar Apr-Jun Jul-Sep Oct-Dec Jan-Mar
Opening 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023
Market Return
April
Australia
May
US, Canada
May
China, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan
Sep
UK, Germany, France, The Netherlands, all Europe Two flights
Source: TECNZ updated 22 November 2021NZ International Tourism Recovery Roadmap (No. Arrivals 000’s and % Recovery)
Market recovery based on Australia from 1 Apr 2022, USA from 1 May 2022, China/Asia from 1 May 2022 and UK/Europe from 1 Sep 2022
By YE May 2024, total annual visitor arrivals 88.7% of pre-COVID arrivals (3,003,289)
Pre
COVID
Assumptions: May 21 May 22 May 23 May 24
Australia 1,491,252 • Australia from 1 Apr 2022 (10%) 149,125 (20%) 298,250 (85%) 1,267,564 (100%) 1,491,252
• USA from 1 May 2022
USA 347,629 • China/Asia from 1 May 2022 (0%) 0 (70%) 243,340 (90%) 312,866
• UK/Europe from Sep 2022
China 328,145
• Airline connectivity and forecasts
(0%) 0 (60%) 196,887 (70%) 262,516
UK 223,102 • Digital passports compulsory ( 0%) 0 (65%) 145,016 (90%) 200,792
• Vaccination rates in countries
Germany 91,067 • 80% NZ vaccinated by Nov 21 ( 0%) 0 (65%) 59,154 (90%) 81,960
• All visitors provide proof of vac.
Japan 90,326 • Propensity to travel ( 0%) 0 (55%) 49,679 (70%) 63,228
• Demand from offshore wholesale
South Korea 81,660
agents/clients
(0%) 0 (55%) 44,913 (70%) 57,162
India 67,395 • Geo-political and economic status (0%) (10%) 6,740 26,958
0 (40%)
in source country COVID trends
Singapore 60,932 • No global recession (0%) 0 (65%) 39,606 (90%) 54,839
• Be aware of potential inflationary
Taiwan 49,179 pressure (0%) 0 (60%) 29,507 (70%) 34,425
• Industry, non-industry sources
Hong Kong 51,807
• NZ’s global health and visitor ( o%) 0 (60%) 31,084 (90%) 46,626
France 39,507 profile with COVID management
( 0%) 0 (65%) 25,680 (90%) 35,556
• NZ willingness to receive visitors
The Netherlands 29,384 • WTTC and UNWTO trends ( 0%) 0 (65) 19,100 (90%) 26,446
Source: TECNZ Forecast based on Stats NZ IVA Top 30 Countries Annual International Arrivals as at YE March 2020, updated 22 November 2021• Australia from 1 Apr 2021
• USA from 1 May 2022
• China & Pacific Rim from 1 May 2022
• UK/Europe from 1 July 2022
Source: TECNZ Forecast based on Stats NZ IVA Top 30 Countries Annual International Arrivals as at YE March 2020, updated 22 Nov 2021Source: TECNZ Forecast based on Stats NZ IVA Top 30 Countries Annual International Arrivals as at YE March 2020, updated 22 Nov 2021
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