Winter Storm Saturday Night-Sunday - Decision Support Briefing #2 As of 9:00 AM Friday, Jan. 18, 2019 - Borough of Stone Harbor
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Winter Storm Saturday Night-Sunday
Decision Support Briefing #2
As of 9:00 AM
Friday, Jan. 18, 2019
What Has Changed?
The threat of significant icing has
migrated further south toward the I-95
corridor
Western Montgomery and Upper Bucks
Counties have been added to the
Winter Storm Watch
Weather Forecast Office
Presentation Created 1/18/2019
Philadelphia/Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly NWSMountHolly
9:27 AM
Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
Snow will overspread these
A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing
Most significant impacts areas Saturday afternoon and
Snow and rain will create very hazardous
will be along and north evening and quickly increase
travel conditions. Roadways will
Wintry Mix of of I-78, but ice and snow in intensity. Snow may mix
be snow and ice covered. Power
Snow, Sleet and accumulations are with sleet, freezing rain, or
outages are possible due to a
possible further south rain by overnight Saturday
Freezing Rain combination of freezing rain and
into the I-95 corridor. night. Precipitation will wrap
wind.
up Sunday evening.
An initial burst of snow, sleet, Urban and small stream
freezing rain will change over to flooding is possible Saturday
Heavy Rain Along and southeast of
heavy rain. This will bring the night and Sunday morning
and Flooding the I-95 corridor.
potential for both urban flooding with river flooding possible
and river flooding. later Sunday into Monday.
A rapid temperature drop will Sunday late morning NW of
cause any slush or standing the I-95 corridor and Sunday
Flash Freeze water to freeze solid, leading to
All of our forecast area.
afternoon from that corridor
very icy conditions. SE.
Gale force wind gusts will create
Winds increase Sunday
hazardous conditions for Coastal areas of New
afternoon and evening and
Wind/Marine mariners. Strong winds near the Jersey, Delaware, and
peak Sunday night and
coast could cause localized our coastal waters.
Monday.
power outages.
Coastal Minor coastal flooding is Atlantic coast, Delaware
Sunday morning high tide.
Flooding possible. Bay, tidal Delaware River
Weather Forecast Office
Presentation Created 1/18/2019
Philadelphia/Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly NWSMountHolly
9:27 AM
Summary of Greatest Impacts
Snow and mix: Along and north of I-78
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Heavy Rain: Along and SE of I-95
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Flash Freeze: NJ, DE, NE MD, SE PA
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Wind/marine: coastal waters, adjacent shores
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Coastal Flooding: Atlantic, DE Bay & River
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Weather Forecast Office
Presentation Created 1/18/2019
Philadelphia/Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly NWSMountHolly
9:27 AM
Forecast Snow Accumulations
Uncertainty in Snowfall
Forecast:
Snow and ice totals will be
dependent on the timing
and duration of the
precipitation type.
Near and along the I-95
corridor, a small shift in the
storm track could result in
big differences in
precipitation type and
amount.
If sleet and freezing rain
occurs for a longer period,
snow accumulations will
decrease but overall
impacts will remain
significant.
Weather Forecast Office
Presentation Created 1/18/2019
Philadelphia/Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly NWSMountHolly
9:27 AM
Forecast Ice Accumulations
Uncertainty in Ice
Forecast:
Snow and ice totals will be
dependent on the timing
and duration of the
precipitation type
Near and along the I-95
corridor, a small shift in the
storm track could result in
big differences in
precipitation type and
amount
If sleet and freezing rain
occurs for a longer period,
ice accumulations will
increase.
Weather Forecast Office
Presentation Created 1/18/2019
Philadelphia/Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly NWSMountHolly
9:27 AM
Probabilistic Snowfall Forecast
Low End Potential High End Potential
9 in 10 (90%) Chance of Higher Snowfall 1 in 10 (10%) Chance of Higher Snowfall
Than Depicted Below Than Depicted Below
Weather Forecast Office
Presentation Created 1/18/2019
Philadelphia/Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly NWSMountHolly
9:27 AM
Coastal Flooding
Sunday morning high tide
This graphic shows the
expected degree of flooding
Middlesex
Mercer on the oceanfront, bays,
Bucks Monmouth
and estuaries along the
highlighted areas.
Ocean
Delaware Burlington
New Castle
Cecil
Salem
Atlantic
Cumberland
Kent
Kent
No Flooding
Caroline
Talbot Spotty Minor Flooding
Sussex Minor Flooding
Moderate Flooding
Major Flooding
Weather Forecast Office
Presentation Created 1/18/2019
Philadelphia/Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly NWSMountHolly
9:27 AM
Event Summary
A significant winter storm will impact the mid-Atlantic this weekend with a wide
variety of precipitation types and impacts.
For northern NJ and northeast PA, a period of heavy snowfall is likely beginning
late Saturday with a change to sleet/ice likely overnight. Very hazardous travel
conditions are expected in these areas and freezing rain and wind could lead to
power outages.
Heavy rainfall in areas south of the rain/snow transition zone could lead to both
urban flooding Saturday night and Sunday and river flooding later Sunday into
Monday. Flooding potential is largely dependent on how much precipitation falls
as rain as opposed to ice and snow.
Sunday late morning and afternoon, a rapid temperature drop will lead to a hard
freeze of any areas of slush and standing water, even for areas that received
little to no snowfall. This will lead to very icy conditions Sunday evening and
overnight. Bitterly cold air will make clearing snow and ice very difficult.
Minor coastal flooding is possible with the Sunday morning high tide, mostly
along the Atlantic Coast, Delaware Bay, and the tidal Delaware River.
Strong winds behind the storm late Sunday through Monday will lead to
hazardous conditions over the waters for mariners and localized power outages
on adjacent shores.
Weather Forecast Office
Presentation Created 1/18/2019
Philadelphia/Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly NWSMountHolly
9:27 AM
Contact and Next Briefing Information
Next Briefing
When: by 5 PM on
Friday, January 18, 2019
Briefing Webpage:
www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
Web: Facebook:
www.weather.gov/phi NWSMountHolly
Phone (public): Twitter:
(609) 261-6600 @NWS_MountHolly
Disclaimer: The information contained in this briefing is time-
sensitive; do not use after the next briefing package is issued.
Weather Forecast Office
Presentation Created 1/18/2019
Philadelphia/Mount Holly @NWS_MountHolly NWSMountHolly
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