TWO THOUSAND SEVENTEEN - THE MCGRATH REPORT - PUBLISHED SPRING 2016 - MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS
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A Message From John McGrath 2 TRENDS Factors Driving Price Growth 4 The Asia Story 8 Off-Market Selling of Prestige Property 12 Are We Staying Put Longer? 16 Real Estate of the Future 20 CITIES Sydney 24 Melbourne 28 Brisbane & Surrounds 32 Canberra 36 Contents 1
A Message From John McGrath Another compelling year in Australian real estate is But my honest view is that Sydney and Melbourne behind us so what do we take out of it? In our annual are the 'New York’s of Australia' and will be in huge report we try to understand the movements in the demand as far into the distance as I can possibly see. market and pinpoint the trends that seem to be having In fact with several billion people on the doorstep of the greatest impact on us now and into the future. this lucky country, many with a huge appetite to enjoy the lifestyle that we have, it would be far easier to The last few years have been a fascinating time for mount a sensible argument that both the big cities will Australian residential property with a number of look incredibly cheap as we look back in a decade or trends emerging and indeed driving different markets so. That is assuming that we manage our growth well in different ways. This year’s report will delve into a and find a way to sensibly welcome immigrants and number of these in an attempt to share our insights overseas investors into the country. including why we’re staying in our homes longer, the rise in off-market prestige sales and how technology is and Which brings me to what I believe is one of the most will continue to change the way we transact real estate. short sighted initiatives that I’ve seen in my 35 years of real estate. The decision for the three east coast The question that people ask me most frequently is State Governments to impose hefty taxes on overseas “What's the market doing?” To which of course there buyers seems one of the strangest I’ve seen. This tax is no accurate answer other than to refine the question could only have been imposed for one of several with the response: “Which market?” flawed reasons in my opinion. Was it to allow local buyers to get into the market? Or was it simply to Australia is no longer one market but large cities like raise more revenue? Sydney and Melbourne are indeed multiple markets within their own city boundaries. We have seen Let me emphasise the overall percentage of property in over the last few years Sydney and Melbourne Australia sold to foreign buyers is minimal. The reason decouple from the rest of the country. This is not a Sydney and Melbourne prices have risen has little if phenomenon that concerns nor surprises me. Indeed anything to do with overseas buyers. It’s a supply issue. if you follow the trends of most countries around the globe, the largest city or cities often become And let’s not forget that we all came from somewhere separated from the rest of the market by the weight else. Our multi-cultural society is one of our greatest of demand. And within these cities we continue to see assets. Why send a message to the world that an increasing “Manhattan Effect” where not only have they’re not welcome to invest alongside us in this their lifestyles become more and more in demand great country? but locating as close as possible to the proverbial action within these cities has become a sub-trend. I hope you enjoy this year’s report. As commuting becomes increasingly challenging the desire to be close to the business and arts districts is a direction that’s here to stay. John McGrath As a result of this people ask me if I think Sydney and Melbourne are overvalued off the recent cycle uplift. McGrath Report 2017 2 A Message From John McGrath 3
Trends Figures compiled by CoreLogic RP Data reveal the In Melbourne, St Kilda East house prices rose 35.4% suburbs with the greatest house and apartment price due to improved amenities, a changing residential growth over the 12 months to June 30, 2016*. profile, gentrification and increased demand from buyers priced out of Albert Park, Middle Park A key element in the price growth of many suburbs and Elwood. this year has been a lack of stock, which has intensified competition. Carlisle Street in Balaclava, a small suburb in the St Kilda East postcode, has been transformed over In Sydney, Westmead recorded the strongest house the past decade into a buzzy café village where locals price growth for FY2016 at 33.2%. We attribute this to love to hang out. the $900 million Westmead Hospital redevelopment project currently underway and a growing resident There are shops, major supermarkets, schools, the population of well-paid health service professionals. recently upgraded train station and easy access to the The East Coast capital city suburbs with the highest city and St Kilda foreshore. There are beautiful period Westmead is also home to an expanding campus of the houses and apartments protected by heritage order. price growth prove that lifestyle options, strong or University of Western Sydney and is situated right next It’s a great place to live and gaining appeal as a door to Parramatta, Sydney’s second CBD. destination suburb. improving infrastructure, good schools, local jobs or proximity to employment hubs, public transport Fairlight recorded the strongest apartment price growth at a staggering 46%. A shortage of stock combined with Brighton had the second highest apartment price growth at 27.3%, reflecting demand from downsizers and a vibrant ‘village’ atmosphere are key factors in a large difference between house and apartment prices who have lived and loved the location for 30 years and and the ripple effect from its beachside neighbour, are now selling their family homes and moving into driving prices skyward. Manly all contributed to this phenomenal price rise. apartments and townhouses in the same area. Factors Top 5 House Growth 1 St Kilda East (VIC) 35.4% Driving 2 Westmead (NSW) 33.2% 3 Ormond (VIC) 31.6% 4 Fairfield (VIC) 30.3% 5 Londonderry (NSW) 29.9% Price Growth McGrath Report 2017 4 Factors Driving Price Growth 5
In Brisbane, house price growth was greatest in Identifying Price Growth Robertson at 25.6%; while beachside Woody Point on Top 5 Suburbs for Price Growth by Capital City Hot Spots the Redcliffe peninsula achieved the best apartment price growth at 24.2%. Houses Apartments Macro Factors Wilston recorded the third best house price growth at SUBURB MEDIAN PRICE 12 MONTH CHANGE IN SUBURB MEDIAN PRICE 12 MONTH CHANGE IN 20.3% over FY2016. Wilston is a highly regarded area MEDIAN PRICE MEDIAN PRICE • Strong population growth with a great café village, excellent schools and NSW NSW • Good local employment or spectacular homes – many with city views due to the Westmead $1,225,000 33.2% Fairlight $1,285,000 46.0% access to job hubs suburb’s elevated position. Londonderry $1,150,000 29.9% Ultimo $735,000 40.7% Millers Point $2,475,000 29.5% Chipping Norton $582,000 38.6% • Gentrification of housing stock Camp Hill enjoyed the second best apartment price Canterbury $1,247,500 28.9% Kirribilli $1,195,000 34.0% growth at 18.9% due to strong demand from first Croydon Park $1,380,000 28.0% Waverton $1,150,000 27.8% • Growing household incomes home buyers. QLD QLD • Lifestyle amenities – cafes, Robertson $1,005,000 25.6% Woody Point $410,000 24.2% shops, entertainment and In the nation’s capital, it’s all about O’Connor, which had Darra $440,000 23.9% Camp Hill $541,000 18.9% recreation the highest price growth for both houses at 21.5% and Wilston $1,007,500 20.3% Scarborough $475,000 14.1% • Schools and catchment apartments at 15.3% in FY2016. Chelmer $1,127,500 19.0% Newstead $595,000 11.7% zones Banyo $521,750 17.2% Teneriffe $629,500 11.6% • Presence of big retail brands O’Connor is close to everything and has a great café VIC VIC • P ublic transport and and shopping precinct. Families love the tree-lined St Kilda East $1,422,000 35.4% Hampton East $662,000 27.4% walkability streets and good sized blocks and it is in the catchment Ormond $1,500,000 31.6% Brighton $910,000 27.3% areas for Turner School and Lyneham Primary School. Fairfield $1,205,000 30.3% Braybrook $454,250 23.7% Being walking distance to the CBD and the Australian Carlton $945,000 29.3% Mooroolbark $480,000 23.1% National University is also a major drawcard for young Keysborough $624,000 28.7% Balaclava $550,000 20.6% Market Factors buyers and investors. ACT ACT O’Connor $960,000 21.5% O’Connor $490,000 15.3% • R ising tenant and buyer * CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016; suburbs with a minimum Ainslie $925,000 21.4% Bonython $455,000 11.9% demand of 40 sales during the year Deakin $1,145,500 19.6% City $532,500 11.8% • Low or falling days on Narrabundah $821,000 17.0% Cook $502,500 6.9% market Hackett $790,000 16.2% Bruce $425,000 5.7% • Low or falling vacancy rates Source: CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016; suburbs with • More auctions and rising a minimum of 40 sales during the year clearance rates • Reduced vendor discounting • Limited supply of future housing Top 5 Apartment Growth 1 Fairlight (NSW) 46.0% 2 Ultimo (NSW) 40.7% 3 Chipping Norton (NSW) 38.6% 4 Kirribilli (NSW) 34.0% 5 Waverton (NSW) 27.8% McGrath Report 2017 6 Factors Driving Price Growth 7
Trends Foreign investment $60.75bn in Australian residential real estate Chinese investment $34.71bn in Australian residential and commercial real estate $24.35bn $17.16bn $12.41bn $5.93bn Foreign investment has been a significant driver FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 of Australia’s property market and in many ways a contributing factor to our strong economy, particularly over the past decade as China has boomed and its Australia’s attractive lifestyle, clean air and food supply, rising middle and upper class have looked for new political and economic stability, high quality education Top 10 Hot Spots for and health facilities, safe cities, a similar time zone and Chinese Buyers ways to invest in a volatile international economy. attractive property market has proven an irresistible combination for our northern neighbours. According to the latest Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) data*, $60.75 billion was invested in Australian residential real estate by foreign buyers The Asia in FY2015, up 75% on FY2014^. By far, New South Wales and Victoria were the favoured destinations and for the third consecutive year, the lion’s share of investment came from China – and at record levels, too. 1 Glen Waverley VIC Story – 2 Doncaster VIC Chinese buyers invested $24.35 billion in residential 3 Box Hill VIC and commercial real estate last year*, almost 4 Epping NSW double that of FY2014^ and more than four times the 5 Mosman NSW investment of FY2013#. 6 West Ryde NSW 7 Chatswood NSW Clearly, Chinese appetite for Australian property 8 Burwood NSW Is it over? is increasing, so what happens when governments – 9 Hurstville NSW Australian and Chinese, tighten controls on 10 Toorak VIC foreign investment? In December 2015, the Australian Government intro- duced fees for foreign real estate acquisitions, starting Source: This is where Chinese buyers at $5,000 for purchases below $1 million – which want to live down under, realestate. com.au and myfun.com, published April 12, 2016 McGrath Report 2017 8 The Asia Story 9
represents the majority of foreign real estate purchases. Top 10 Hot Spots for In June 2016, the New South Wales Government Short Term Medium Term Long Term Chinese Buyers by State introduced a 4% stamp duty surcharge for foreign What buyers and a 0.75% land tax surcharge from 2017. NEW SOUTH WALES Does Brexit In July 2016, the Victorian Government raised their Mean for 1 Epping 2 Mosman stamp duty surcharge for foreign purchasers from 3% to 7% and announced an increase in the absentee Australian 3 West Ryde 4 Chatswood owner land tax surcharge from 0.5% to 1.5% from 2017. Property? 5 Burwood 6 Hurstville The Queensland Government also introduced a 3% 7 Hornsby stamp duty surcharge on foreign purchases in 8 Killara October 2016. 9 Lane Cove The United Kingdom’s Unlike equity, currency Overall, the Brexit decision With Brexit expected to take 10 Carlingford And there’s even more hurdles for foreign buyers to surprise vote to leave the and commodity markets, should work in our favour. at least two years, it is hard to VICTORIA jump with Australian banks tightening their lending European Union in June real estate is far less predict the ultimate impact. 1 Glen Waverley criteria and the Chinese Government limiting the sent shockwaves around the affected by investors’ Australia attracts a lot of 2 Doncaster amount of capital exiting the country. world, with many equity knee-jerk reactions. capital for commercial 3 Box Hill markets taking a sizeable hit property and other invest- 4 Toorak While it’s too early for official numbers, anecdotal after the announcement. To date, there hasn’t been ments from around the world 5 Balwyn evidence from our agents suggests mainland Chinese a noticeable impact on our and we are often competing 6 Doncaster East investors have pulled back while Chinese clients But what will Brexit mean for market and we are not with Europe for these dollars. 7 Balwyn North already here continue to upgrade to new homes and our property market? expecting any impulsive 8 Kew purchase for investment. moves by investors. Our residential property 9 Wheelers Hill market, particularly Sydney, 10 Carlton The effect of the new fees won’t be fully realised for Melbourne and the Gold QUEENSLAND another 12-18 months but we think it will be largely Coast could benefit as 1 Southport limited to the new apartment market. FIRB figures* overseas buyers turn away 2 Sunnybank show about 80% of all foreign purchases are under from London, which has been 3 Robina $1 million – indicating that reduced Chinese demand popular with foreign buyers. 4 Indooroopilly and settlement defaults will hit the apartment sector 5 Surfers Paradise most, with some impact also felt in the mid-priced 6 Tallai house market too. 7 Helensvale 8 New Farm As Chinese investment slows down – at least in the 9 Hawthorne short term, FIRB figures show increasing interest from 10 Carindale other parts of Asia, primarily Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and Thailand.*^# Source: This is where Chinese We are also seeing an increase in investment buyers want to live down under, from emerging economies such as India, Vietnam realestate.com.au and myfun.com, published April 12, 2016 and Indonesia. * Annual Report 2014-15, Foreign Investment Review Board, published April 8, 2016 ^ Annual Report 2013-14, Foreign Investment Review Board, published April 27, 2015 # Annual Report 2012-13, Foreign Investment Review Board, published February 28, 2014 McGrath Report 2017 10 The Asia Story 11
Trends Most popular in East Coast capital city markets, off-market selling is where a property is sold without Australian record for any public advertising. Instead, owners quietly list with single residence sale 70m a trusted professional who then introduces their home to pre-selected clients without ads or open homes. Off-market selling is happening across all price brackets but particularly the prestige sector, where privacy is a priority for high profile clientele. Impressive record prices have been set off-market, none more so than the $70 million Australian record for a single residence set in 2015 when Chinese-Australian developer, Dr Chau Chak Wing purchased James and Erica Packer’s former home in Vaucluse, Sydney. A significant off-market sales trend has emerged in This year, suburban records have also been set Australian prestige property due to an undersupplied off-market in Sydney’s Longueville ($11.88 million) and market, better use of database marketing, the rise of Rozelle ($4 million); in Melbourne’s Northcote ($4.3 million); and in Brisbane’s New Farm ($10.5 million) – the buyers’ agent and increased opportunity for wealthy the city’s highest sale in 2016. clients to maintain total privacy. Lack of stock has been a major contributor to stronger off-market selling in 2016. Frustrated buyers are asking agents for early notice of new listings and making premium offers to snap them up and avoid open market competition. Off-Market Agents are approaching home owners directly off the back of clients’ requests for a particular street or a home with very specific criteria. This proactivity has given many owners the chance to sell for a premium, avoid marketing costs and remain off the radar. Selling In Brisbane, off-market selling is occurring more so because vendors are worried they won’t achieve their price in this current market. They don’t want to pay for marketing then potentially face the risk of not selling. So agents are orchestrating deals using their databases to match listings to buyers in a far more discreet and of Prestige personalised way. Database marketing has facilitated the rise in off-market selling. In terms of sales strategy, database marketing is nothing new but today’s technology is enabling agents to do it better. Property The size of agents’ databases, built up over many years as our industry has shifted to a more personalised style of marketing as part of the mix, means agents can create real competition and achieve solid prices while also meeting their vendors’ desire for privacy. McGrath Report 2017 12 Off-Market Selling of Prestige Property 13
We believe prestige property will be the next growth story in Australian real estate. This sector did not move as much during the boom and price growth is overdue. Agents are dedicating more time to developing Demand for prestige property improved this year, personal relationships with buyers, especially in the with Chinese buyers continuing to move here for high end market, as our industry evolves from a largely lifestyle and expats purchasing future homes in transactional to relationships-based business. suburbs delivering solid rental yields until they relocate back home. Some agencies in Sydney and Melbourne have introduced password-protected online platforms that Growing demand from foreign buyers, expats and local allow pre-qualified buyers to log in and view properties upgraders should move prestige prices forward as long not advertised on the major portals. as the global economy remains stable. The proliferation of buyers’ agents has also led to more Volatility in the share market, which is directly and off-market selling. Clients of buyers’ agents are time- immediately hit by events such as Brexit and acts of poor and looking for a more efficient way of finding a terrorism, might also attract more investment into new home. Selling agents often introduce new listings Australian real estate over coming years. to buyers’ agents first and quick sales can ensue. It also wouldn’t be surprising to see more people Chinese social media, particularly the Facebook- investing greater capital into their homes due to equivalent WeChat is also enabling effective changes to superannuation and the opportunity international marketing to buyers willing to move for tax-free capital gains. quickly to secure the best homes on offer. We believe prestige property will be the next growth story in Australian real estate. This sector did not move as much during the boom and price growth is overdue. McGrath Report 2017 14 Off-Market Selling of Prestige Property 15
Trends Renovation Spending 1 Melbourne $1.882 billion 2 Sydney $1.684 billion 3 Brisbane $766 million 4 Perth $500 million 5 Adelaide $299 million 6 Canberra $111 million 7 Darwin $57 million 8 Hobart $57 million Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics data modelled by Domain Group Chief Economist Andrew Wilson, domain.com.au, published February 27, 2016 Australian home owners are staying put longer, with the average number of years that capital city residents hold their homes trending up since 2005 from 6.7 years to 10.7 years for houses and 5.9 years to 9 years for apartments. The number of sales transactions has declined in line Which brings us to the second major element affecting with this trend, according to CoreLogic RP Data*. hold periods – changes in the way we live. So why are we staying put longer? There has always been a strong correlation between Are We Essentially it boils down to financial reasons and people’s life stages and their housing needs, however changes in the way we live today. in today’s modern world the traditional trends in the way we live are shifting and this is reducing the Affordability and the costs of buying and selling are necessity to move. major factors. Stamp duty and agents’ fees alone currently run to about $55,000 on a median priced Couple-only households and people who live alone Staying Put house in Sydney today. are the fastest growing types of households in Australia today and they don’t need to move as much Renovating is also on the rise, which tends to happen as growing families. at the end of a boom when affordability falls. Instead of trading up, owners draw on new equity to renovate and Recent Australian Bureau of Statistics figures^ show extend instead. So it’s not surprising that Melbourne 46% of couple-only and lone person households and Sydney are our renovating hot spots right now. have lived in their current home for 10 or more years Longer? compared to 28% of families with kids. A strong economy is also encouraging people to stay put. Despite the GFC, it’s been 25 years since our last Young people are staying home longer, prompting recession so the biggest economic factors that prompt many parents to delay their downsize or seachange. people to sell – unemployment and financial stress – When they buy their first home or rent with friends or are less at play. People in secure jobs can stay put until a partner, they can stay there longer because they are personal circumstances demand a change of address. delaying marriage and kids until much later in life. McGrath Report 2017 16 Are We Staying Put Longer? 17
Previously, as people’s incomes grew, they would look Staying put means avoiding moving costs and to upgrade to a better property but wage growth is not preserving pension arrangements, which can change East Coast Capitals with the Longest Hold Periods nearly keeping pace with property prices, so there are after selling. The GFC also prompted many empty- plenty of couples staying put in apartments or small nesters to delay retirement and stay put while they Houses Apartments houses until their first or second child comes along. continued working to replenish lost superannuation. SUBURB YEARS SUBURB YEARS The average family size is also getting smaller, with Buying and holding is the key to success in Australian NSW NSW a steady decline from 3-4 kids in the 1960s to 1-2 kids real estate. Although owner-occupiers are primarily Dawes Point 29.7 Bella Vista 14.9 today#. This means many families can stay put longer motivated by lifestyle factors, it’s important to Regentville 22.6 Haberfield 14.1 in properties with fewer bedrooms. remember that your home is your greatest financial Ellis Lane 22.2 Russell Lea 13.1 asset and the best capital growth always occurs over Vineyard 22.0 Drummoyne 13.1 We’re also seeing a rise in multi-generational the long term. Maraylya 20.9 Schofields 13.0 households with couples and in-laws pooling funds QLD QLD to buy a large home that will suit them for the long * Property Pulse, CoreLogic RP Data, published March 30, 2015 Pinjarra Hills 16.4 Grange 11.8 term. ABS data^ shows the majority of multi-family ^ Housing Mobility and Conditions 2013–14, Rochedale 15.7 Kenmore 11.3 households stay put for 10-20 years or more. Australian Bureau of Statistics, published December 10, 2015 Macgregor 15.3 Sunnybank 11.3 # Births, Australia 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics, St Lucia 14.6 St Lucia 11.2 Our ageing population is also contributing to longer published October 29, 2015 Nathan 14.5 Macgregor 11.2 hold periods. Mortgage-free home ownership is VIC VIC highest amongst older Australians and they prefer to Cranbourne South 22.2 Braeside 17.5 stay put long term if they can, with 47% of owners^ Belgrave South 18.2 Wheelers Hill 15.9 without a mortgage living in their homes for more Vermont South 18.2 Ivanhoe East 15.7 than 20 years. Noble Park North 17.7 Hadfield 15.3 Warrandyte 17.4 Viewbank 14.9 ACT ACT Bonython 14.7 Reid 14.3 Gowrie 14.4 Monash 14.2 Hawker 13.2 Holt 13.9 Chapman 13.2 Higgins 13.5 Palmerston 13.1 Greenway 12.9 Source: Housing Occupancy and Costs 2013-14, FY2014 FY1995 Australian Bureau of Statistics, published October 16, 2015 Source: CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016 Australians Who Own Their Homes Australians Who Are Private Renters 71% 67% 26% 18% McGrath Report 2017 18 Are We Staying Put Longer? 19
150 Trends A huge range of digital platforms continue to change Push technology will alert home hunters to nearby the method and pace of real estate transactions, with properties for sale and unlock special content to buyers and sellers more informed and better prepared heighten their engagement. than ever before and the best agents harnessing The average Australian innovation to improve their marketing power and Virtual reality will provide an on site experience for off checks their phone service style. Specialised apps, price predictors, social site clientele. VR stations in real estate offices will make 150 times a day^ media, free market research and cheap independent open inspections an everyday convenience for buyers. 2020 property reports available for purchase online have all worked to benefit the consumer. Artificial intelligence will use algorithms to help buyers search, all the while learning from each Email, SMS, database marketing and big data has interaction to understand what the user really wants enabled agents to better engage with buyers and in their next home. By 2020 80% of all global property portals have expanded their audience. content on the internet A raft of business software and bluetooth gadgetry Blockchain technology and smart contracts will will be video# has increased their efficiency and shortened response simplify the transaction process and automate times to enquiries. procedures traditionally undertaken by intermediaries like banks and inspectors. Real estate technology began with search and has now extended to service. Consumers want a less Platforms allowing customers to send a single loan stressful experience and are intolerant of agents who request to a multitude of lenders will result in more Australian homes have can’t provide it. competition and a better deal on finance for borrowers. more mobile devices than toothbrushes** For example, the experience of opens is changing, Technology will undoubtedly continue to raise clients’ with names and numbers still taken at the door but on expectations and the best agents are meeting this an iPad that syncs with the agent’s phone and database challenge through a more holistic approach, including for more effective follow-up. Buyers can use apps to building long term relationships with their clients pre-register their attendance and skip the queue; and and focusing more on ‘outcomes’ over simple can request and receive a contract via email before sales transactions. they have even left the property. * Future of Real Estate and Property Finance Industries Report, CoreLogic published April 13, 2016 Since the advent of internet marketing and mobile Scores of small innovations are often quickly superseded. The evolution of the signboard provides ^ Google Mobile Forum, 2016 technology in the 1990s, the nature of buying and an example – once a simple board, it was then given # realestate.com.au Strategy Forum, 2016 an overhead light, a QR code, then full background ** realestate.com.au Momentum, 2016 selling has been turned on its head. lighting and now touch screen. Photos on a webpage are no longer enough, with 360-degree photography and fly-through technology providing a more complete perspective and the opportunity to inspect every part of a room. A huge range Real Estate Location analytics are helping buyers purchase in of digital platforms unfamiliar locations with greater confidence. Buyers can discover an area’s demographics, traffic data, continue to change property developments, points of interest, drive times, walk times and street and aerial views with ease. the method and pace of real estate of the Future And there is so much more to come. According to CoreLogic’s Future of Real Estate Report*, transactions. push technology, artificial intelligence, virtual reality and blockchains will be the next big tech trends in real estate. McGrath Report 2017 20 Real Estate of the Future 21
Friday 5pm Saturday 9am Saturday 9.30am Saturday 10am Saturday 10.15am A Day in the Life of a 2027 Buyer It’s been a busy week at work but behind Your Uber turns up and you slip into the This place is awesome – a fully equipped Back in the car, you press a button to Now you’re on your way to an apartment. the scenes your Amazon Echo has been seat. Meanwhile, your phone syncs with smart home with all the latest features request a contract, which arrives in A quick search of public strata records automatically preparing your Saturday the car’s TV for a cinematic introduction to enjoy. 60 seconds. alerts you to an upcoming special levy open inspection schedule. At 5pm, to your first property. that explains why two other owners are Amazon’s Alexa asks you to approve your You’re impressed by the green features, You liked that house and want to find also selling. You cancel this stop and schedule while simultaneously booking You swivel the seat for the perfect including bioadaptive lighting that out more. An app shows you the home’s voice command Alexa to find the next a self-driving single seat Uber for a stress angle and flick through the 360-degree activates upon entering a room and the latest survey, information on zoning best option for that timeslot. free all day chauffeur experience. photos before taking the virtual tour. air purification system that tells you the and nearby development applications. Amazon’s Alexa provides a pollen count and directly attacks odours. comprehensive rundown of the home’s Your Green app shows the home’s best features and answers a few of your CBUS technology is a given these days, sustainability rating, the latest electricity questions before you arrive out front. incorporating lighting, security and and water bills and the noise pollution surround sound. As you test out the recorded within 500 metres. control pad, your mind drifts back to the days of wall-mounted powerpoints and You check the agent’s price guide against light switches. So old school now. recent sales on a per square metre basis, providing a much clearer picture of the home’s true worth. Saturday 11am Saturday 11.45am Saturday 12pm Saturday 12.30pm Saturday 1pm Saturday 1.30pm The next property you visit has DA Using your iPad, you register to bid You’re meeting your buyers’ agent at the The next stop is a developer’s office for The last property of the day is a real On your way home, you press a button to approval for an extension. At the door, at a live streamed auction in Hong next one. It’s an off-market listing that is a VR presentation of a new apartment contender. You’ve finally found that turn on the lights and air-conditioning the agent hands you a headset that talks Kong. You’d love to invest in this city only being shown to a few clients. As you block. It has a 5-star sustainability rating big entertaining space but the vendor’s for your arrival. You flick two contracts to you through the changes allowed. A but affordable apartments are hard to drive down the street, an e-alert tells you which bumps up the price but energy clutter makes it hard to imagine as your a legal app where freelance solicitors bid builder, architect and designer are all find. You place the opening bid but the that No 8 is in pre-launch and the first costs will be halved long term. own. You take a photo and upload to to provide written advice by Monday. standing by on Skype so buyers can ask offers soon surpass your budget. You open will be next week. You click a button your interior design app, which inserts questions via a group conference call. watch proceedings and log off when the to save the details. You select an apartment and ‘virtually’ your furniture and shows the space in You’re on your way to buying your next No need to pre-register your attendance hammer falls. stroll out to the balcony, where you change a variety of colours. home. Much easier than in 2016. here, a fingerprint scanner collects the time of day to night to see the cityscape your details. views. You play with the colour and fixtures menu to design your perfect kitchen and bathroom. You save your changes, email them to your iPad and collect glossy colour print-outs at the door. McGrath Report 2017 22 Real Estate of the Future 23
Cities Many would-be upgraders are staying put and renovating In Sydney, Eastern Suburbs owners who bought in the instead, with Sydney and Melbourne owners spending $2 million-$4 million bracket are now selling for $7 million more than twice the money of owners in other capital and upgrading to $10 million. In the Lower North Shore cities, according to the ABS and Domain research. harbour suburbs, young families are selling for $4 million -$5 million and upgrading to $8 million-$10 million. While investors are still out there, we have definitely noticed a drop-off due to tighter lending criteria. The Affordability remains an issue across Sydney. The APRA-led changes introduced in early 2015 aimed to traditional migration west for cheaper housing Sydney limit growth in the banks’ property investment lending to continues, with the greatest population growth over less than 10% per year and this has now been achieved. the next 20 years expected in Camden, Parramatta, The Hills and Liverpool regions, according to new The top end of the market improved this year. The lower figures from the NSW Department of Planning#. dollar has encouraged expats and foreign buyers; and locals who purchased wisely post-GFC are now looking However, limited greenfield development space on to cash in and upgrade. Sydney’s western fringe means we need to get creative Sydney remains Australia’s strongest and most Median House Price Median Apartment Price enduring property market. It's powered by $895,000 long-standing fundamentals of undersupply and $813,000 population growth, providing every type of lifestyle possible including beachside, harbourside, CBD $708,000 living and suburban neighbourhoods for $678,750 almost 5 million residents. $630,000 $570,000 Sydney real estate is like gold and in my opinion, According to CoreLogic RP Data*, the pace of price despite the phenomenal boom of 2012-2016, Sydney growth in Sydney has halved this year but median property prices will continue to rise. property values are still up 12.8% to $880,000 for houses and 7.5% to $665,500 for apartments over the first eight Latest figures from CoreLogic RP Data* tell us that months of 2016. Pretty impressive for a slowing market. Sydney property prices have risen 64% in four years. This is spectacular growth and well ahead of the Record low listing numbers have contributed to very second best result in Melbourne at 44%. strong auction clearance rates between 70% to above 80% all year. For many Sydney property owners, the boom has delivered extraordinary gains for those in the market. Local upgraders have been the greatest buying force, But how do you best capitalise on this newfound wealth? aiming to use new equity to upgrade their homes and potentially refinance while interest rates are so low. Meantime, the market is showing signs of plateauing However, fear of selling and not being able to buy back but price growth has continued due to a significant in is resulting in a determination to buy first, so stock undersupply of stock and strong demand buoyed by remains low. further falls in interest rates. 2014 2015 2016 S ource: CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016 McGrath Report 2017 24 Sydney 25
in housing a predicted 1.7 million new residents over This is where young people want to live and over the the next two decades#. Among the options is subdivision next few years, they will be spoilt for choice and finally of traditional blocks in established suburbs to enable have some negotiating power on their side. more terraces, townhouses and dual occupancies; and 3 more high rise apartment living around suburban CBDs. We see a bright future for the Sydney property market. There is plenty of long term price growth ahead even Meantime, a growing cohort of young families are as we approach a major affordability hurdle for younger leaving Sydney altogether in favour of affordable buyers today. lifestyle locations, with ABS figures showing the most 5 popular spots are the Richmond-Tweed region, We believe the burgeoning global audience for Sydney Mid-North Coast, Central Coast and Hunter Valley**. real estate will be a key contributor to future price growth; and the long term stability of the market and Chinese buyers remain a force in Sydney, however new opportunity to create significant personal wealth will fees levied by both federal and state governments on top sustain the aspirations of Sydneysiders to own their 2 of tighter lending criteria for foreigners has resulted in own homes for generations to come. reduced demand and settlement risk on new apartments. * Hedonic Home Value Index, CoreLogic RP Data, published September 1, 2016 There’s a two-year pipeline of 82,000 new apartments # NSW Population Projections 2016 Update, NSW Department of Planning and Environment, published September 12, 2016 to be completed in Sydney, according to CoreLogic RP Data^^. To put that in perspective, 43,500 apartments ** Is family-led sea and tree change back in vogue? CoreLogic RP Data, pub- lished April 18, 2016 and Migration, Australia 2014-15, Australian Bureau of are sold in Sydney per year but that includes 1 Statistics, published March 30, 2016 established apartments, which represent a bigger share ^^ Record high unit construction increases settlement risk, CoreLogic RP Data, of the pie. published May 16, 2016 This wave of new supply will be concentrated around the inner city and suburban employment and shopping 4 hubs such as Strathfield, Parramatta and Ryde. John McGrath’s 1 Canterbury 3 Rouse Hill 5 Forestville Audi Benchmark Top Picks Once an average suburban Follow the money. At the minute This has been a favourite suburb As they often say, “Follow the precinct best known for its equine it’s all heading to the North West for several years now. If you smart money if you want to get interests; Canterbury is fast ahead of the soon-to-be-completed crossed the leafy North Shore ahead”. So what better barometer becoming an Inner West bolthole new rail line. The surrounding with the vibrant Northern than taking a peek at where the attracting young families and areas are equally as attractive Beaches, Forestville would be the smart drivers garage their Audis professionals alike. Buy, sit and for both lifestyle and capital outcome. Relatively easy access each night. watch your asset grow in value. growth but the Rouse Hill Town to the CBD, just 7 minutes to the Centre is worth seeing for that surf and surrounded by trees, its address alone. ideal for homemakers. 1 Zetland 2 Parramatta 3 Mosman 2 Hunters Hill 4 ans Souci / S 4 Five Dock Dolls Point 5 Artarmon We still can’t work out why the 6 Pennant Hills values here for some of the Surrounded by water and with 7 Sutherland country’s best real estate are all the appeal and benefits of 8 Newcastle West materially below her peers in the Sydney’s southern suburbs yet 9 Wollongong East and North? This attractive only minutes to the bay and airport 10 Coffs Harbour garden enclave is private and with easy access to the CBD. discreet with beautiful homes and Leaves little doubt that this area S ource: Audi Australia perfumed gardens. If you want to will continue to be one of the most see some of the best homes in the desirable in Sydney. country, you better check it out. McGrath Report 2017 26 Sydney 27
Cities In Parkville, homes within the catchment for University in the early $1 millions and buying in Croydon for High have a median house price of $1,395,000 $800,000-$900,000. compared to $799,000 for homes that are 1 km outside the zone. Similarly, homes in the catchment Given Melbourne’s tight supply and rising prices, for McKinnon Secondary College have a $305,000 we are seeing the ripple effect in many areas. premium over those outside the zone**. For example, buyers priced out of the highly desirable Bayside area are purchasing next door in Bentleigh and With interest rates continuing at record lows, young McKinnon, leading to several sales above $2 million Melbourne buyers are stretching their budgets to get into premium this year – a price level not thought possible just a few areas. They’re targeting small inner ring cottages with a years ago. bit of character and paying well over reserve to secure a piece of prime land while they can. APRA restrictions have impacted investor demand but we are still receiving enquiries from Sydney, Perth, Some vendors are leveraging strong selling conditions Brisbane and ex-Melbourne locals living overseas. to upgrade to larger homes in more affordable Many investors have now put Sydney into the ‘too areas with change to spare. For example, vendors in hard box’ due to affordability and switched focus Doncaster, Mitcham, Blackburn and Box Hill are selling to Melbourne. Melbourne and Sydney have long been the engine Median House Price Median Apartment Price rooms of Australia’s property market, with Sydney $608,000 traditionally leading the way. But the southern capital $540,000 $560,000 is looking more appealing than ever before due to its superior value for money and glowing reputation as $470,000 $472,500 $485,000 the world’s most liveable city for the past six years*. Melbourne’s relative affordability is contributing to in FY2016 to $608,000, with the median apartment record high net interstate migration, as well as strong price up 2.5% to $485,000##. net overseas migration, making it Australia’s fastest growing capital city with an average of 1,760 people However, some areas experienced much stronger price moving in per week in FY2015, according to the ABS^. growth due to a lack of supply in 2016. According to CoreLogic RP Data, Melbourne’s top 10 suburbs for Although Sydney outshone its southern cousin in the house price growth in FY2016 all experienced more boom with 64% growth in home values compared to than 25% gains in value##. 44% since 2012#, Melbourne arguably offers greater prospects for growth in the future. The dominant buyers in Melbourne today are upsizing families, most of whom are targeting the catchment Its median house price is $287,000 cheaper## and a zones of top performing public schools to avoid projected population surge from 4.61 million in 2016 to private school fees. This trend is so strong that new 7.91 million in 2053 will see it overtake Sydney as the REIV research** shows there is now a significant most populous city in Australia^^. price difference between homes located within top catchments and those that border them. Melbourne’s median house price rose by a modest 8.6% 2014 2015 2016 S ource: CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016 McGrath Report 2017 28 Melbourne 29
The southern capital has long been the favoured Melbourne is facing an oversupply of apartments, destination of offshore Chinese buyers but demand which currently represent 49% of stock for sale has softened this year following changes to lending compared to 42% a year ago and 29% in 2011^^^. criteria for foreigners and forced sales of properties CoreLogic RP Data figures show a pipeline of 80,500 purchased in breach of Foreign Investment Review new apartments due for completion over the next two Board regulations. years when only 61,500 apartments (old and new) are usually sold over this timeframe###. Despite this, Melbourne’s prestige market remains 4 strong with a new house price record for the city set in This presents a great opportunity for owner-occupiers Toorak at $24.1 million and Victoria’s highest residential with a long term view but they need to choose wisely. 5 sale ever occurring in South Yarra with the exchange of three homes in one line for $33 million – both this year. Sales above $25 million are expected for the 1 penthouses in South Yarra’s glamorous Capitol Grand development, which would break the national apartment record. 3 2 * Global Liveability Ranking 2016, The Economist Intelligence Unit, ^^ Population Projections, Australia 2012 to 2101, Australian Bureau of published August 18, 2016 Statistics, published November 26, 2013 ^ Regional Population Growth, Australia 2014-15, ## CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016; suburbs with a minimum of Australian Bureau of Statistics, published March 30, 2016 40 sales in the year # Hedonic Home Value Index, CoreLogic RP Data, published September 1, 2016 ^^^ Units are increasingly making up a higher proportion of overall stock available for sale, largely driven by the nation’s two largest capital cities, ** Top of the class: School zones boost prices in 2016, Real Estate Institute of CoreLogic RP Data, published August 2, 2016 Victoria, published June 27, 2016 ### Record high unit construction increases settlement risk, CoreLogic RP Data, published May 16, 2016 John McGrath’s 1 Windsor 3 Wheelers Hill 5 bbotsford A Audi Benchmark Top Picks A hidden gem neighbouring Wheelers Hill has a median house This inner city precinct less than As they often say, “Follow the Prahran, Windsor was once con- price that is $250,000 less than its 3km from Melbourne’s CBD has smart money if you want to get sidered the grungy end of Chapel neighbours of Glen Waverley and been though significant gentrifica- ahead”. So what better barometer Street but now the hipster crowd is Mount Waverley, yet it is only 5-10 tion over the past decade. With an than taking a peek at where the moving in. We see great potential minutes away. Buyers are abundance of leisure and lifestyle smart drivers garage their Audis for this trendy pocket, which has increasingly looking for better amenities, it also has cycling and each night. easy access to trains and shops and value here and we anticipate solid running routes alongside the is conveniently close to the CBD. price growth as a result. Yarra River. Young professionals and families enjoy its walkability 1 Melbourne and accessibility well serviced by 2 Bentleigh trams and trains, while cashed up 2 Oakleigh South 4 Northcote 3 Doncaster downsizers are now discovering 4 Burwood this gem. Change is on its way with a Just 6 km north of the CBD, 5 Berwick noticeable uplift in buyer demand Northcote has undergone major 6 Ballarat over the past 12-18 months. This change and is now a destination 7 Glen Iris suburb is full of mid-century suburb for young professionals and 8 Brighton homes on big blocks with plenty of families. High Street village offers 9 Geelong potential for knockdown/re-builds many restaurants and the tram and development. Downsizers are runs straight through to the city 10 Glen Waverley capitalising on a 10-15% jump in with a train station also close by. land values over the past few years Local schools including Northcote S ource: Audi Australia and selling to young families High and Santa Maria College are and developers. increasingly popular. McGrath Report 2017 30 Melbourne 31
Cities In the apartment market, Brisbane is facing an ladder through a buy, renovate, sell and repeat strategy. oversupply with a two-year pipeline of 44,511 In the more affordable suburbs, a huge range of buyers dwellings to be completed, according to CoreLogic including local upgraders, downsizers, renovators, first RP Data**. This is significant when ordinarily about home buyers and some Sydney and Melbourne lifestyle 30,000 apartments would be sold in this timeframe buyers are targeting up-and-coming areas particularly and that includes a combination of old and new. on the southern Gold Coast. The oversupply will be primarily around the city Buyers are especially drawn to areas such as Miami, Brisbane & and inner ring areas. Investors are increasingly wary Palm Beach and Tugun where good quality houses that of this and some developers have delayed their are walking distance to the beach are selling for well projects. However, it does present an opportunity for below $1 million. owner-occupiers with a long term view. The newly boosted First Home Owners’ Grant, up from $15,000 to These suburbs offer exceptional value and $20,000 until June 30, 2017 should help young buyers opportunities for growth. A Palm Beach home worth Surrounds in this market. $600,000 is worth $1 million just 9 km up the road in Mermaid Beach. On the beachfront, Palm Beach buyers On the Gold Coast, plenty is happening and it’s are paying $2.5-$3 million compared to $5-5.5 million all positive. in Mermaid Beach. Locals who bought highly discounted properties in In the prestige market, there have been very few sales prime areas post-GFC have now renovated or re-built above $10 million since 2009 but this year six were and are selling with a view to buying again in a better recorded over the first three quarters alone, reflecting location. They are making money and moving up the rising confidence particularly among locals. South-East Queensland continues to offer outstanding opportunity for growth but a sluggish economy, political upheaval, low population growth and an impending apartment oversupply is delaying significant price growth overdue in Brisbane today. Audi Benchmark As they often say, “Follow the smart money if you want to get ahead”. So what better barometer than taking a peek at where the smart drivers garage their Audis The end of the mining boom has hit Queensland hard. But through all this, the property market is showing each night. Brisbane is no longer experiencing the strong flow of resilience. According to CoreLogic RP Data, median money that came from regional areas where mining property values (houses and apartments) along the workers earning big salaries were investing in Brisbane Brisbane to Gold Coast corridor rose by 5.7% to 1 Fortitude Valley real estate or buying family homes in Brisbane for a $482,000 in FY2016^ compared to 3.5% growth in 2 Southport fly-in fly-out lifestyle. FY2015 and 6.7% in FY2014. 3 Indooroopilly 4 Slacks Creek Latest statistics from the ABS and CoreLogic RP Data Despite all the big picture challenges, the market is 5 Currimundi show Brisbane’s population growth is at its lowest point currently seen as affordable, safe, steady, reliable and 6 Townsville since 2001*. Continuously strong economic conditions doing well in tough economic conditions. 7 Springwood in New South Wales and Victoria and uninspired state 8 Cairns management following the Liberal National Party’s As always, some suburbs have exhibited exceptional 9 Toowoomba removal after one term and now a minority Labor results. Those with more than 15% house price growth in 10 Hamilton Government provides no incentive for big business FY2016 include Robertson (25.6%), Darra (23.9%), Wil- S ource: Audi Australia to set up and expand into Brisbane. ston (20.3%), Chelmer (19%), Banyo (17.2%), New Farm (16.8%), Sandgate (16.8%) and Carina Heights (16.2%)#. McGrath Report 2017 32 Brisbane & Surrounds 33
The biggest deal was the $25 million sale of a Mermaid * Melbourne leads population Beach mansion in September. There was also the $15.5 growth, CoreLogic RP Data, pub- lished April 11, 2016 and Regional 4 million sale of a riverfront Isle of Capri residence to Population Growth, Australia Chinese buyers and two other sales in Mermaid Beach 2014-15, Australian Bureau of Sta- for $13.25 million and $11.45 million. There was also an tistics, published March 30, 2016 $11 million sale on Cronin Island and a $10.9 million sale ^ Hedonic Home Value Index, at Sanctuary Cove. CoreLogic RP Data, published July 1, 2016 We remain very optimistic about the Gold Coast. In the # CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months lead-up to the 2018 Commonwealth Games, billions to June 30, 2016; suburbs with a 5 minimum of 40 sales in the year is being spent on infrastructure and the economy is becoming more diversified with health and education ** Record high unit construction in- jobs supplementing the more volatile retail, tourism and creases settlement risk, CoreLogic RP Data, published May 16, 2016 construction industries. On the Sunshine Coast, there is a lot of demand at the upper end in Noosa and Sunshine Beach. Local upgraders and lifestyle buyers from Queensland, Sydney and Melbourne are spending up to $5 million for properties to either occupy now or use as holiday homes ahead of retirement. A new record for beach- front homes on the coast was set in September with a $9.3 million sale at Sunshine Beach. John McGrath’s 1 Gordon Park 3 Mermaid Waters 5 Maroochydore 1 Top Picks Brisbane’s smallest suburb, Gordon This suburb offers very good This is a town on the move with its Park offers fantastic value and great value and a mix of waterfront and CBD undergoing a complete 2 infrastructure. Access to the CBD non-waterfront homes. We are see- makeover. Just 2 km from the has become much easier with the ing at least 4-5 registered bidders ocean, there is already a fresh, Clem7 and Inner City Bypass. New across all auctions in this suburb. exciting new vibe on the main cafes are popping up and a ripple This is an ideal location for second street with lots of new roads, retail, effect is occurring from the more home buyers who don’t have the commercial spaces and community established and pricier neighbouring budget for Mermaid Beach. A lot facilities on the way. suburbs of Grange and Wilston. of buyers are renovating so the suburb is undergoing a facelift. 2 Taringa 4 Sunrise Beach Situated next to St Lucia and Indo- With a median house price of oroopilly, Taringa has access to all $675,000, it offers better value the same amenities as its blue chip than neighbouring Sunshine Beach neighbours but offers better value (median $1,015,000) but probably for buyers. According to CoreLogic not for long! Just a few minutes RP Data, Taringa house prices rose outside Noosa, Sunrise Beach has 3 10.2% in FY2016* but we think had a noticeable kick in activity there is more growth to come. and 12.5% house price growth in FY2016*. McGrath Report 2017 34 Brisbane & Surrounds 35
Cities having a big impact on the market. Approximately 260 Meanwhile, the incredibly rare opportunity to buy homes have already been demolished with 176 sched- vacant land in premium established suburbs uled for demolition between July and December 2016 **. following the demolition of ‘Mr Fluffy’ homes is really exciting buyers. The scheme has displaced hundreds of families who all need to buy or rent. They have been paid well for their The first 10 blocks were taken to auction in April. homes and the stamp duty concession on their next Among the sales was a block in Pearce for $605,000 purchase is giving them extra buying power and the and one in Chapman for $610,000 – both close to Canberra ability to buy quickly and compete strongly at auction. the city’s median house price of $607,000. Some are staying in their area, others are upgrading This signalled to other home owners just how valuable elsewhere. For example, many ‘Mr Fluffy’ sellers in their land has become due to limited release of new Belconnen are heading to nearby Gungahlin where supply in recent years. they can purchase bigger, newer homes. The market has improved significantly in Canberra, with a 7.6% spike in property values over the first eight months of the year compared to a decline of Median House Price $607,000 Median Apartment Price -0.9% for the same period in 2015*. $572,000 $545,000 $415,000 $419,900 $415,000 Underpinning this growth is an undersupply of houses gearing or capital gains; and a tax cut that would for sale; greater stability in Federal Government benefit a large proportion of residents, who are among following many years of unrest; and a very low unem- the highest paid workers in the country. ployment rate of just 3.6% ^, boosted by the lifting of a two-year hiring freeze in the public service in mid-2015. Opens have been well-attended and auction clearance rates for houses have remained just shy There is a distinct new confidence in the marketplace of 70% for the 12 months to June 2016, according to following the Federal Election. Domain research#. Canberra is always directly affected by elections because Interest rate cuts are no longer having a stimulatory one in three workers are employed in the public service. effect, with buyers now used to record lows. Unlike the last Federal Election, there was no threat of However, young couples and families are leveraging mass job cuts on either side of politics so the market rates to stretch their budgets further and buy in maintained its momentum during the long campaign. premium locations close to the best schools. The Coalition’s return meant continuing stability for The $1 billion ‘Mr Fluffy’ buyback and demolition of government employees; no changes to negative 1,022 homes across 56 suburbs by 2018 continues and is 2014 2015 2016 S ource: CoreLogic RP Data; 12 months to June 30, 2016 McGrath Report 2017 36 Canberra 37
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