Towards a Territorial Reference Framework - Strategic Advisory Forum 1st Meeting 14.03.2018
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Strategic Advisory Forum
1st Meeting – 14.03.2018
// Towards a Territorial Reference Framework
1st Strategic Advisory Forum // Key messages for Territorial Reference Framework // 14 March // EPC, Brussels
1 Background The Territorial Reference Framework project
“European Territorial Reference Framework”
“A Vision as a European
Territorial Reference
Framework should become
available for Policies and
Investment”.
“Building up from a
common vision is
necessary to draw up an
European territorial
framework which ensures a
set of territorial conditions
on community investments
of Cohesion and sectoral
policies, incorporating
territorial considerations
into planning for
development”
ESPON ET2050 “Making
Europe
Image based on Kunzmann and Wegener (“Europe of Grapes”, 1991) Open and Polycentric” (2014)
Main activities (December 2017- June 2019)
Policy-analysis
Participatory process Foresight exercise
(lead S4S) (lead MCRIT)
(lead EPC)
Strategic Advisory Forum Baseline and exploratory
Territorial approach for future (5 workshops at EPC, Brussels) scenarios 2030-2050)
European policies (Chaired J.S, & M.J.)
Assessment by MASST4
Governance process for a new Consultation events (expert- (POLIMI) coordinated with
Territorial Agenda post-2020 workshops, venues tbc with JRC/DGREGIO
ESPON EGTC)
Main activities (December 2017- June 2019)
Members of the Advisory Forum:
Jacek Szlachta (PL), as chair
Participatory process
Marjorie Jouen (FR), as co-chair
(lead S4S)
Rudiger Ahrend (OECD, FR)
Strategic Advisory Forum
(5 workshops at EPC, Brussels) John Bachtler (UK)
Workshops:
(Chaired J.S, & M.J.) Fabrizio Barca (IT)
14 March 2018 – Key political messages
Consultation events (expert- Simin Davoudi (UK)
12 June 2018 –Trends
workshops, venues tbc with ESPON
EGTC) (lead S4S) 2 October 2018 – Mid-term scenarios Andreas Faludi (NL)
20 November 2018 – Long-term territorial vision Klaus Kunzmann (DE)
12 March 2019 –Territorial Reference Framework Peter Nijkamp (NL)
Mila Mancheva (BG)
Philip McCann (UK)
Tatjana Muravska (LV)
Michael Parkinson (UK)
Tea Nõmmann (EE)
Slavo Radošević (UK)
Andrés Rodriguez-Pose (UK)
Janusz Zaleski (PL)
2 Background on the Territorial Agenda Why a new one?
European territorial guides, charts, perspectives, agendas... 1983-2011
Territorial Agenda 2020 priorities (2011)
«Inclusive, Smart and Sustainable Europe of Diverse Regions »
• Promote polycentric and balanced territorial development
• Encouraging integrated development in cities, rural and specific regions
• Territorial integration in cross-border and transnational functional regions
• Ensuring global competitiveness of the regions based on strong local
economies
• Improving territorial connectivity for individuals, communities and enterprises
• Managing and connecting ecological, landscape and cultural values of regions
3 Background on trends: Seeds of change?
Economic Forecast 2010-2030 Baseline scenario: Regional Economic Growth 2010-2030 (annual average growth) GDP a.a.: 1,89 % 45 regions bellow 1,00 % Annual average GDP rate over the period (2012)
Economic Evolution 2010-2015
Evolution of Regional Disparities 2010-2015
Regional disparities between / within Member States
.25
.2
.15
TOTAL
Between M.S.
.1
.05
Within M.S.
2000 2005 2008 2010 2012 2015
Year
Between countries Theil index Within Countries Theil Index
Total Theil indexEvolution of Regional Disparities 2010-2015
Regional disparities between Member States by Economic Performance
High growth M.S.
.06
.05
.04
Low growth M.S.
Middle growth M.S.
.03
.02
2000 2005 2008 2010 2012 2015
Year
Within Theil, low growth Countries Within Theil, middle growth Countries
Within Theil, high growth CountriesEvolution of Regional Disparities 2010-2015
GDP levelsRegional Economic Evolution 2010-2015 Increase in economic disparities: Regions within Member States Regions at European scale Member States in the European Union Relevance of policies: European monetary policies Investment and structural change in Member States are critical Both macroeconomic and territorial policies are needed
Regional Economic Forecast 2010-2030 (JRC, 2016)
Ageing. Migrations? Baseline scenario: Demographic Growth 2010-2020 (annual average growth) Stable if no migration: from 514 to 530 inh. And ageing: %>64 years 26% to 39%
Limited enlargement and more political fragmentation?
Quality of Government will improve significantly?
EQI 2010 EQI 2017
“Quality of Government Institute, University of Gotheborg (2018)Network economies more relevant than agglomeration economies?
Single Market still relevant?
Postcarbon energy sources? Pro-active neighborhood policies?
Humanitarian crisis. “European values” still matter?
Emerging technologies…. Hi, are you a robot?
3 Background on scenarios:
First Scenario: Promotion of Global Metropolises in Europe…
Second Scenario: Reinforcing Networks of Cities…
Third Scenario: Empowering “Glocal” Communities?
Vision for 2050: Open & Polycentric?
Vision for 2050: Open & Polycentric?
Vision for 2050: Open & Polycentric?
Vision for 2050: Open & Polycentric?
“To seek Europe, is to make it!” Zygmunt Bauman, An Adventure called Europe (2004)
// Thank you Andreu Ulied, ulied@mcrit.com MCRIT / Multicriteri@ (Barcelona) www.mcrit.com Oriol Biosca, obiosca@mcrit.com MCRIT / Multicriteri@ (Barcelona) www.mcrit.com with economic insights by Prof. Roberto Camagni, roberto.camagni@polimi.it POLIMI (Milano) This draft presentation will be made available at: www.eu2050.eu Visit ESPON website www.espon.eu for official results
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