Thursday, September 30, 2021 - BEFORE THE OPEN
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Thursday, September 30, 2021
STOCKS
Source: FactSet (5pm EDT)
BEFORE THE OPEN
Source: Thomson Reuters
Futures for Canada's main stock index gained, tracking firmer gold prices,
although they were on pace to end September down 2%. U.S. stock index
futures rose as U.S. lawmakers continue to wrangle over funding the
government but face a Friday deadline to prevent a shutdown. European stocks
continued their rebound but were set for monthly declines on worries about a
slowing global economy and higher inflation while Asian shares were lower amid
COVID-19 worries across Southeast Asia. The U.S. dollar hovered near its highest COMMODITIES & CURRENCIES
Source: FactSet (5pm EDT)
levels in a year against a basket of peers on rising expectations the Federal
Reserve will taper stimulus from November. Oil prices held steady as selling
prompted by an unexpected rise in U.S. inventories eased.
STOCKS IN THE NEWS
Source: Thomson Reuters
Facebook Inc. (FB):
Russia may try to fine social media giant Facebook 10% of its annual Russian
turnover for a repeated failure to delete content Moscow deems illegal, the
Vedomosti daily reported, as Russia ups the ante in its standoff with Big Tech.
Separately, Facebook, under criticism over internal data showing its Instagram
app damaged the mental health of teenagers, plans to highlight during a U.S.
Senate hearing on Thursday what it argues were more positive impacts, GLOBAL INDICES
according to the company's prepared testimony seen by Reuters. Source: FactSet (5pm EDT)
Rogers Communication Inc. (RCI-B):
The company said on Wednesday that Chief Financial Officer Tony Staffieri has
stepped down after more than a decade in the role. The telecom company said
it had appointed Paulina Molnar, its senior vice president at its Controller and
Risk Management division, as interim CFO.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE):
The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Wednesday said it closed its TSX SECTORS
Source: FactSet (5pm EDT)
mishap investigation into the July 11 Virgin Galactic Unity 22 launch, which
deviated from assigned airspace on descent, and lifted a grounding order the
regulator imposed earlier. The FAA said Virgin Galactic had implemented
changes the agency required on how it communicates during flight and that the
company will be allowed to resume operations.
THINGS TO KNOW
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
The Senate will vote today on a bill extending government funding until Dec. 3 to
avoid a shutdown when the fiscal year ends at midnight tonight. Despite
assurances from the world’s leading central bankers yesterday that the current
spike in prices would ultimately prove temporary, markets are getting more
prepared for a longer period of inflation. After two weeks of disappointingly high
readings, this morning’s jobless claims data is expected to show the number of
people signing up for unemployment benefits falling to 330,000.
NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO THE UNITED STATES. This publication is a general market commentary and is provided for informational purposes only. The author(s) is not a Research Analyst and this
communication is not the product of Canaccord Genuity Corp.’s Research Department. It should not be construed as a research report or investment advice.
For important information, please see the Important Disclosures beginning on page 11 of this document.
CANADIAN EQUITIES OF INTEREST
Listed Alphabetically by Symbol
African Gold Group* (AGG: $0.14), Net Change: $0.005, Change: 3.57%
Kobada not bada
• African Gold Group is a Gold developer focused on Western Africa and its flagship Kobada project is located in southern Mali
• AGG has announced the results of the update to the Kobada Definitive Feasibility Study, detailing a longer life operation
(16yrs, up from 9-10yrs), with production plateauing at ~100kozpa for 10 years rather than the previous 5
• The Malian project retains the same 3 Mtpa gravity plus CIL process plant flowsheet as the prior DFS, but now includes the
processing of sulphide ores in addition to the oxides, as extensive metallurgical work has confirmed the free-milling, easily
processed nature of this ore
H2O Innovation Inc.* (HEO: $2.40), Net Change: -$0.04, Change: -1.64%
Logistical issues weigh on results
• H2O reported Q4/F2021 top to bottom-line miss. Revenue decreased 2.2% y/ y (~2.4% organic contraction) to $35.2 million
• Acquisitions contributed $3.0 million and revenue would have increased 5.8% y/y if not for the $2.9 million FX headwind
• Adjusted EBITDA of $3.1 million or 8.8% of revenue, came in significantly behind our $4.1 million estimate or 10.7% of revenue
• This margin deterioration was mainly a result of higher SG&A/sales of 19.7% from 16.7% last year due to acquisitions,
increased traveling and higher stock-based compensation costs
• Revenue for WTS increased 1% y/y but decreased 30% sequentially, while gross margins improved to 23.3% from 21.8% in
Q4/F2020
Vintage Wine Estates* (VWE-U: $10.78), Net Change: -$0.46, Change: -4.09%
First Look: A solid finish to F2021, complete with inline F2022 guidance
• VWE reported Q4/F21 earnings results on Tuesday evening and revenue of $57 million was in line with last week's preliminary
release, although adjusted EBITDA of $9 million was below consensus' $13 million estimate
• Full-year pro forma F2021 revenues of $240 million were ahead of management's expectation of $221 million, while pro
forma adjusted EBITDA of $46 million was in line
• The overall YoY top-line growth of ~37% during the quarter reflected strength in each of VWE's D2C, B2B and Wholesale
operating segments
• B2B revenues represented an abnormally high 34.5% of overall revenues during the quarter, which ultimately weighed on
gross margin due to the lower margin nature of the business
US EQUITIES OF INTEREST
Listed Alphabetically by Symbol
Atara Biotherapeutics* (ATRA: $17.55), Net Change: $0.16, Change: 0.92%
ATA188 high doses show increased response; new biomarker data suggest remyelination
• Atara will present full ATA188 data at 37th Congress of the European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple
Sclerosis (ECTRIMS) on October 13, 2021
• Increases in new biomarker, magnetization transfer ratio (MTR), was seen in seven patients, which could provide insights in
expanded disability status scale (EDSS) as well as remyelination
• Of the n=18 patients who chose to participate in the open label extension (OLE), nine patients met sustained disability
improvement (SDI) criteria
• Seven out of the nine patients achieved SDI via sustained EDSS improvement
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Unless otherwise noted, the above commentary is derived from research published by Canaccord Genuity Corp and/or Canaccord Genuity LLC. For more information, please contact your investment
advisor. For current disclosures, please visit our Online Disclosure Database at http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx.
2Palatin Technologies* (PTN: $0.44), Net Change: -$0.03, Change: -5.86%
Vyleesi re-license efforts ongoing; early stage assets moving forward
• Palatin Technologies is a biopharmaceutical company developing targeted, receptor-specific peptide therapeutics
• Palatin continues to grow Vyleesi in house as the company searches to re-license Vyleesi
• Palatin continues its efforts to re-license Vyleesi, ideally with a company that has a presence in the female healthcare market
• Despite limited resources, Vyleesi has shown strong growth since Palatin took over rights from AMAG Pharmaceuticals
• Palatin completed its end-of-phase 2 (EOP2) meeting with the FDA, which discussed PL9643’s development plan and key
elements of the phase 3 trial
• PL8177 is on track for the launch of a phase 2 study in 4Q21, with a possible readout in 2H22
TransMedics Group* (TMDX: $31.79), Net Change: $1.40, Change: 4.61%
Scores a hat trick with OCS Liver FDA PMA approval – labeled for lung, heart & liver
• TransMedics announced this morning that it has received FDA PMA approval for its OCS Liver System for use with organs from
donors after brain death (DBD) and after circulatory death (DCD)
• The approval for OCS Liver comes a few months sooner than anticipated, and now marks TMDX having approvals in all three
major organs, Lung, Heart, and now Liver
• Granted both donor after brain death (DBD) and donor after circulatory death (DCD) indication for OCS Liver, TMDX is able to
target a ~ $1.4B TAM, according to our estimates
• TransMedics plans to focus on the centers that were involved with the OCS Liver system in its PROTECT trials – which are
already familiar on how and when to use the system
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Unless otherwise noted, the above commentary is derived from research published by Canaccord Genuity Corp and/or Canaccord Genuity LLC. For more information, please contact your investment
advisor. For current disclosures, please visit our Online Disclosure Database at http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx.
3INDUSTRY UPDATE
Oil
Market – Platts
• WTI (November) is up 0.2% to $75.01 and Brent (December) is up 0.2% to $78.22 and oil is higher today, with WTI holding
near $75/barrel after two days of mild declines interrupted crude's recent run higher
• The move comes in the wake of US stockpiles building in the DOE's latest weekly report yesterday, rising after seven weekly
draws
• Gas-to-oil switching could improve Asia demand, and tighter inventories could further boost Brent prices before increased
supply from OPEC+ producers limit upside
• Analysts believe that group could raise its quotas by ~800K bpd, twice the current plans for November
China – Platts
• While China's release of oil from its strategic reserve has had a limited impact on the crude market thus far, it nevertheless
sends a clear signal that Beijing will do what it can to control inflationary pressures building in its economy
• China has made moves in commodities markets beyond the reserve releases, including extending permitted production in
coal, limiting output in steel, and managing imports of corn
Norway – Reuters
• Socialists have pulled out of talks with the center-left Labour and Centre parties to form a majority government, with the two
looking to form a minority government that will have to negotiate in parliament on any proposals it presents
• Socialists have advocated for halting all oil exploration activities in a move that would hasten the decline of the country's oil
industry, while the Labour party has looked for a more gradual transition that would avoid steep near-term job losses
Libya – Platts
• Libyan oil minister Oun has rejected the resignation of his deputy Refaat al-Abbar, who abruptly resigned on 28-Sep with
sources pointing to political jockeying between government factions
• Oun asked Abbar, who has ties to Benghazi-linked linked officials, to continue as the government seeks to bridge the divide
• The situation comes against the backdrop of still-simmering tensions between the oil ministry and the National Oil
Corporation and its chairman Sanalla, who has been locked in his own dispute with Oun
Source: FactSet
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Unless otherwise noted, the above commentary is derived from research published by Canaccord Genuity Corp and/or Canaccord Genuity LLC. For more information, please contact your investment
advisor. For current disclosures, please visit our Online Disclosure Database at http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx.
4MORNING INK REPORT
Giant insiders
Source: INK Research
As of: Wednesday, September 29, 2021
Company Highlight: Crew Energy (CR) & Cenovus (CVE)
• The Energy sector has been the best-performing sector so far in 2021, and small and mid-cap oil & gas stocks have led the
charge
• Crew Energy (CR) is our best morning report stock so far this year, up more than 300% since we featured it in our February 1
report
• At the time, the stock had a market cap of just over $100 million, and that has grown to about $479 million
• Meanwhile, one large player that has shown strong leadership is integrated giant Cenovus (CVE), last featured here on
February 12
• At the time, the company was into its second month after taking over Husky Energy. Large acquisitions can be a challenge to
pull off, but so far Cenovus appears to be succeeding
• Since our last report on it, Cenovus stock has advanced 46.6%, ahead of the S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index, up 39.4%
• We noted back in February that the stock had a brighter INK Edge outlook than larger rivals Canadian Natural (Mostly Sunny;
CNQ) and Suncor (Mostly Sunny; SU) which have subsequently advanced 33.5% and 15.8% respectively over the same period
• In terms of financial performance, Cenovus' trailing 12-months cash flow has more than quadrupled in the past year, as it
now stands at $2.02 per share compared to $0.49 a year ago
• Cenovus has also been trimming debt via improved funds flow and asset sales and is aiming to reach net debt of $10 billion
by the end of the year and in Q2, Cenovus generated net earnings of $224 million
• From April 1st to June 9th, 10 Crew Energy (CR) insiders have sold a total of 1,134,055 common shares at an average price of
$1.09
• Despite the selling, however, Crew Energy continues to have above-median ownership (direct & indirect holdings) by Officers
and Directors compared to other small-cap stocks in the Energy sector according to SEDI filings as of September 28th, 2021
Crew Energy (CR) & Cenovus (CVE)
Source: INK Research
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Unless otherwise noted, the above commentary is derived from research published by Canaccord Genuity Corp and/or Canaccord Genuity LLC. For more information, please contact your investment
advisor. For current disclosures, please visit our Online Disclosure Database at http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx.
5MARKET MOVERS
Source: FactSet
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Unless otherwise noted, the above commentary is derived from research published by Canaccord Genuity Corp and/or Canaccord Genuity LLC. For more information, please contact your investment
advisor. For current disclosures, please visit our Online Disclosure Database at http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx.
6ASSET CLASS PERFORMANCE
Source: FactSet
*All numbers presented on the table below are based on total return
As of: 09/30/2021 Price Return CAGR
Index Price Daily Weekly Monthly YTD 1 Yr. 3 Yr. 5 Yr. 10 Yr.
S&P TSX 20,158.14 -0.08% -1.19% -2.36% 15.63% 24.34% 11.23% 9.70% 8.84%
S&P TSX 60 1,209.60 0.05% -0.88% -2.20% 16.90% 24.22% 11.88% 10.47% 9.40%
S&P/TSX Venture 856.27 -1.30% -2.06% -3.95% -2.18% 20.17% 6.47% 1.39% -5.33%
S&P 500 4,359.46 0.16% -0.82% -3.32% 16.06% 30.70% 16.46% 17.36% 16.48%
NASDAQ Composite 14,512.44 -0.24% -2.58% -4.08% 12.60% 30.92% 22.85% 23.68% 20.66%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 34,390.72 0.26% 0.39% -3.00% 12.36% 25.27% 11.59% 16.27% 14.65%
iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF 55.43 -0.41% -3.09% -3.09% 5.61% 22.95% 5.13% 6.10% 4.33%
Shanghai - SSE 3,536.29 -1.83% -2.54% 0.40% 1.82% 9.67% 8.12% 3.54% 4.19%
France - CAC 40 6,560.80 0.83% -1.15% -1.81% 18.18% 35.78% 8.99% 11.27% 11.62%
Germany - DAX 15,365.27 0.77% -0.91% -3.07% 12.00% 19.80% 7.85% 8.11% 10.54%
Italy - FTSE MIB 25,736.85 0.64% 0.08% -1.04% 15.76% 35.02% 10.75% 12.99% 9.03%
Japan - Nikkei 225 29,544.29 -2.12% -0.32% 6.89% 7.65% 25.51% 9.09% 14.26% 15.14%
U.K. - FTSE 100 7,108.16 1.14% 0.35% -0.56% 10.02% 20.53% 2.05% 4.56% 7.20%
Australia - ASX 200 7,196.70 -1.08% -1.37% -3.89% 9.25% 20.91% 8.97% 9.87% 10.60%
India - S&P BSE 100 17,963.09 -0.20% 0.70% 6.07% 27.39% 58.03% 18.75% 16.79% 15.08%
Commodity Price Daily Weekly Monthly YTD 1 Yr. 3 Yr. 5 Yr. 10 Yr.
Crude Oil WTI (NYM $/bbl) 74.83 -0.61% 3.60% 9.09% 56.17% 89.82% 0.71% 9.36% -0.93%
Nat Gas Fin LD (NYM $/btu) 5.48 -6.23% 13.99% 24.82% 116.83% 68.06% 22.11% 10.72% 2.78%
Gold (NYM $/ozt) 1,722.90 -0.84% -3.14% -5.31% -9.73% -10.42% 12.93% 5.38% 0.63%
Silver (NYM $/ozt) 21.49 -4.37% -6.21% -10.88% -19.14% -12.97% 13.45% 2.29% -3.45%
High Grade Copper (NYM $/lbs) 4.20 -1.12% -1.25% -3.07% 18.72% 38.99% 14.39% 13.90% 2.61%
Lumber (CME $/bft) 606.50 -1.49% -3.27% 7.01% -11.51% 29.37% 20.76% 12.94% 10.62%
Miscellaneous Price Daily Weekly Monthly YTD 1 Yr. 3 Yr. 5 Yr. 10 Yr.
CAD/USD 0.78 -0.35% 0.05% -0.92% -0.05% 5.19% 0.47% 0.55% -2.09%
Bitcoin USD (CME) 41,155.00 -1.07% -5.14% -14.17% 40.05% 280.54% 83.62% - -
10Y Canada Govt Bond (MOD) 143.15 -0.21% -1.87% -2.11% -4.34% -5.18% 2.58% -0.63% 0.78%
10Y US T-Note (BMF) 131.47 0.00% -1.14% -1.38% -4.71% -5.95% 3.44% -0.01% -
CBOE VIX (CBF) 22.99 2.10% 4.04% 9.74% -67.28% -77.41% 18.05% 7.62% -5.05%
All prices are in local currencies
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Unless otherwise noted, the above commentary is derived from research published by Canaccord Genuity Corp and/or Canaccord Genuity LLC. For more information, please contact your investment
advisor. For current disclosures, please visit our Online Disclosure Database at http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx.
7MACRO-EVENT SCHEDULE
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Unless otherwise noted, the above commentary is derived from research published by Canaccord Genuity Corp and/or Canaccord Genuity LLC. For more information, please contact your investment
advisor. For current disclosures, please visit our Online Disclosure Database at http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx.
8EARNINGS
CANADA
Company Ticker Exchange Period Time Est.EPS
Mynd Life Sciences Inc MYND CSE Q3 2021 - -
Komo Plant Based Foods Inc YUM CSE Q2 2021 - -
Canada House Wellness Group In CHV CSE Q2 2021 - -
Vivo Cannabis Inc VIVO TSX Q4 2021 - -
Premier Health of America Inc PHA TSXV Q3 2021 - -
Prairie Storm Resources Corp PSEC TSXV Q4 2021 - -
Sierra Madre Gold & Silver Ltd SM TSXV Q2 2021 - -
Confederation Minerals Ltd TGM TSXV Q4 2021 - -
Tombill Mines Ltd TBLL TSXV Q1 2021 AC -
NewRange Gold Corp NRG TSXV Q2 2021 - -0.01
USA
Company Ticker Exchange Period Time Est.EPS
Paychex Inc PAYX NASDAQ Q1 2021 BO 0.80
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc BBBY NASDAQ Q2 2021 BO 0.52
AngioDynamics Inc ANGO NASDAQ Q1 2021 BO -0.05
DA32 Life Science Tech Acquisi DALS NASDAQ Q3 2021 - -
Steel Connect Inc STCN NASDAQ Q4 2021 - -
CarMax Inc KMX NYSE Q2 2021 BO 1.87
McCormick & Co Inc/MD MKC NYSE Q3 2021 BO 0.72
Jefferies Financial Group Inc JEF NYSE Q3 2021 AC 0.99
Alight Inc ALIT NYSE Q3 2021 - 0.13
H&R Block Inc HRB NYSE Q1 2021 - 2.12
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Unless otherwise noted, the above commentary is derived from research published by Canaccord Genuity Corp and/or Canaccord Genuity LLC. For more information, please contact your investment
advisor. For current disclosures, please visit our Online Disclosure Database at http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx.
9MOST READ NEWS
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.
1)Wall Street Titans Warn of the Next Big Risks for Investors
2)Druckenmiller Protege Rogers’s Hedge Fund Soars During Pandemic
3)U.S. Futures Advance as Volatile Quarter Nears End: Markets Wrap
4)China Tells Bankers to Support Property Market, Homebuyers
5)Congress Poised to Avert Shutdown Amid Deadlock on Biden Agenda
6)Exodus of Hong Kong Bankers Accelerates in Chase for China Deals
7)The Next Skill Shortfall for Brexit Britain Could Be Bankers
8)Odey’s Flagship Hedge Fund Surges More Than 100% in Epic Rebound
9)KKR Builds Global Team to Target Rich With Blackstone, UBS Hires
10)European Gas, Power Prices Jump to Records on Russian Gas Flows
THE LAST DROP: “Even if you fall on your face, you are still moving forward.”
- Victor Kiam
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Unless otherwise noted, the above commentary is derived from research published by Canaccord Genuity Corp and/or Canaccord Genuity LLC. For more information, please contact your investment
advisor. For current disclosures, please visit our Online Disclosure Database at http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx.
10Appendix: Important Disclosures
While this product is drawn from sources believed to be reliable, the accuracy and completeness of the information contained herein is not guaranteed. Any reference
to a research report or a recommendation is not a solicitation to purchase or sell any security and it does not consider the individual investment objectives, financial
situation, suitability or risk tolerance of any person or corporation. Accordingly, investors should obtain advice based on their own specific circumstances before making
any investment decision. Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management is a division of Canaccord Genuity Corp. Member – Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF) and the
Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC).
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Valuation Model.
Quest® triAngle is Canaccord Genuity’s proprietary 15-factor, stock-picking tool, which systematically measures Value, Quality and Momentum and presents the results
in a simple, easy to understand score. It takes a multi-pronged approach to Value, Quality and Momentum using five factors for each component, which adds more
consistency of performance unlike a reliance on one single measure. It uses a mix of historic and forecast data, and combines absolute valuation data with comparisons
relative to history. The triAngle is designed to generate stock ideas and provide a consistent framework for analysis of portfolio holdings.
Quest® Methodology
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valuation metrics, including assigning a Default Quest® value per share and generating a triAngle Score, which is a relative ranking based on a number of operational
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pricing, and earnings data provided by outside data vendors are subject to quality control and may also be adjusted to more closely measure the underlying economics
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* Canaccord Genuity and its affiliated companies may have a Corporate Finance or other relationship with the company and may trade in any of the Designated
Investments mentioned herein either for their own account or the accounts of their customers, in good faith and in the normal course of market making. The authors
have not received, and will not receive, compensation that is directly based upon or linked to one or more specific Corporate Finance activities, or to coverage contained
in the Morning Coffee.
Canaccord Genuity is the global capital markets group of Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX)
The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the Investment Analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any
and all the Designated Investments and Relevant Issuers discussed herein.
Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited is the Australian affiliate of global capital markets group Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF : TSX). The recommendations and
opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the Analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any and all the designated investments and
relevant issuers discussed herein.
Thursday, September 30, 2021
Unless otherwise noted, the above commentary is derived from research published by Canaccord Genuity Corp and/or Canaccord Genuity LLC. For more information, please contact your investment
advisor. For current disclosures, please visit our Online Disclosure Database at http://disclosures.canaccordgenuity.com/EN/Pages/default.aspx.
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