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Federal election 2019 The path to victory for each major party © 2019 NATIONAL Public Relations, an AVENIR GLOBAL company
Table of contents
Introduction.......................................................................................... 3
Liberal Party of Canada ......................................................... 4
Conservative Party of Canada ...................................... 6
New Democratic Party........................................................... 8
Green Party of Canada .......................................................... 10
Bloc Québécois............................................................................... 12
About NATIONAL.......................................................................... 14
Our experts in Public Affairs
and Government Relations .................................................. 15
Our office locations ..................................................................... 19
2
Introduction
As we move into the summer and inch closer to
October, the narratives that will define the next
federal election are becoming clearer. Parties are
rallying their troops and starting to show their
colours, and issues are starting to emerge as the
potential ballot box question.
A lot has changed since the 2015 election that
gave a majority government to Justin Trudeau’s
Liberal Party. With three new party leaders,
a Prime Minister whose reputation has been
damaged over the last few months, and a party
that might gain momentum from Canadians’
growing environmental concerns, it is certainly
hard to predict what the 43rd legislature will look
like in Ottawa. However, we can already see what
the success of each party will depend on, and
what their main challenges will be to gain voters’
confidence.
Let our experts help you understand the strengths
and weaknesses of each major party, and their keys
to victory.
3
Liberal Party of Canada
Holding its
coalition together
Written by Gordon Taylor Lee,
Managing Partner at NATIONAL
Public Relations in Ottawa
In politics, as in business, even the most well-established brands become tarnished. Over time,
they lose their luster, require a refresh, and in some cases, need an overhaul. Political leaders
spend years carefully building their public personas. They seek to create their personal narratives,
with a clear picture of what they stand for, what they’re against, and what they represent.
In Justin Trudeau’s case, the brand was instantly recognizable—a young, centre-left progressive,
globally-conscious, gender-inclusive, pro-environment leader, with a last name every household
in Canada already knew. Prime Minister Trudeau represented a generational shift, someone who
would “do politics differently.”
This brand, by any objective measure, has been damaged since the Liberals
took power in 2015. The self-described “sunny ways” of Trudeau’s early
mandate are long gone. Numerous self-inflicted political mistakes have taken
their toll and the party eventually has had difficulty connecting with the
voters and voting groups, like young Canadians, who helped to fuel
its victory.
Now every major national poll consistently shows Prime Minister Trudeau
in second place. The PM, by any objective metric, is entering the 2019
campaign on his political back foot.
Yet, he still has time to reposition himself and the Liberals before October
2019. Voter intentions are still “soft” with four months away from the
campaign. Meanwhile, traditional centre-left voters are not gravitating to
the NDP, providing another electoral advantage for the PM.
4
More importantly, Prime Minister Trudeau still Selling an economic vision
has some distinct political advantages: the
country’s job numbers are strong; his competition The Liberals have yet to articulate a clear vision of
on left and right simply don’t have his name their economic plan. Yet the economy is stable and
recognition; his incumbency allows countless growing. And national job numbers are strong. The
chances to connect directly with voters through PM will need to ensure his economic vision is easily
the summer via spending announcements; and he understood. His commitments on infrastructure
is a formidable campaigner. But winning again will and innovation spending, while interesting, don’t
require some tangible strategic shifts during the seem to connect with voters. Something more crisp
summer, along with a deliberate change in tone. and compelling is required.
In short, success in October will be premised on
the following: Capitalizing on the report card
Re-establishing As businesses need to report to shareholders,
centre-left dominance politicians need to communicate results to voters.
The Liberals published ministerial mandate letters,
The Liberals’ success in 2015 was premised on a first for any federal government. They also spoke
enthusiastic “progressive voters”. Trudeau pulled of a new way to achieve results—“deliverology”—
support from the NDP, the Green Party, and others for Canadians. The PM must now convince
who viewed him as a champion of their issues. voters that his majority mandate was worth the
Such belief—and trust—among voters has waned investment, and he should be given a chance to
since his election. The PM will need to lock down finish his homework and complete his to-do list.
the progressive vote and convince voters that his
opponents will have no chance to be a vehicle to
move their issues. Or worse, that they pose a
threat to the progress he has attempted to drive.
5
Conservative Party of Canada
Controling
the narrative
Written by Jake Enwright, Director, Public
Affairs at NATIONAL Public Relations in Ottawa
Companies and organizations have strengths and weaknesses. Politicians are no different.
Conservative leader Andrew Scheer spent the remaining days of the 42nd Parliament addressing
his weaknesses, specifically those that generate distrust among suburban Canadian families, a
demographic key to Conservative electoral success.
From reassuring voters about his zero tolerance stance on racism, to assuring Canadians he has
a plan to combat climate change, Scheer devoted significant time to repairing those perceived
weaknesses among his target audience.
But if you spend too much time defining who you are not, you don’t define who you really are.
Campaigns force leaders to respond to criticism, but the sooner Scheer starts talking about his
strengths, the better chance he has of becoming Prime Minister.
Moving forward, expect the Conservative leader to focus and communicate exclusively on public
policies that highlight his strengths as a leader, and the shortcomings of Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau. These include the Canadian economy and affordability, repairing Canada’s reputation
on the global stage and public safety. It is well established that Scheer’s path to victory goes
through the GTA, Lower Mainland B.C. and Quebec.
6
What remains unknown is if Scheer can successfully Emphasizing the
control the narrative and keep the ballot box
importance of public safety
questions framed around his strengths and not his
weaknesses. Here is how he will do it: Law and order has always been the policy bastion
of conservatism. From backlogs in our justice
Framing the affordability question system, to asylum seekers using a loophole to
cross the Canadian border, Scheer will hammer
Scheer will tell Canadians that tax hikes are in the these issues relentlessly. Not only is it a traditional
secret hidden agenda of the Liberal Party and of strength of his party, it has become obvious that
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The Conservative the Prime Minister struggles to communicate
leader will assert that a ballooning federal deficit effectively when public safety issues dominate
is the motive behind this agenda to increase the headlines.
taxes, and increasing gas prices are just one of the
outcomes. Expect every announcement by the
Liberals to be met with warnings of higher taxes
by Scheer.
Reestablishing Canada on the
global stage
Scheer will frame the Prime Minister as a naive
leader who has damaged Canada’s reputation
on the world stage. Whether it’s the sense that
Canada’s traditional allies are frustrated with us,
or the failure to secure a diplomatic solution with
China, expect Scheer to use Canada’s uncertain
position on the global stage as a rallying cry
for change.
7
New Democratic Party
Keeping the focus
on its core values
Written by Alexandra Abdelwahab,
Associate at NATIONAL Public Relations in Ottawa
The New Democratic Party has always seen itself as the traditional party of the people: the
champion of workers, young people and pensioners. Their newly announced campaign platform,
dubbed the New Deal for People shows they plan to double down on this narrative in the
upcoming campaign, by harkening back to U.S. President Roosevelt’s post-war reconstruction
plan, with shades of ideas put forward by U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Senator
Bernie Sanders.
It contains promises meant to appeal to these groups: a comprehensive pharmacare plan, a
promise to implement a ban on single-use plastics by 2022, and a promise to lower the cost of
cell phone and Internet plans.
Yet, while the substance seems likely to attract these voters, the overall tone of Jagmeet Singh’s
campaign so far may end up turning them off.
In his first campaign video, ostensibly about his commitments to Canadians, Singh spends the
first third of the video attacking Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives and Justin Trudeau and
the Liberals.
Given that the Liberals have politically stolen some of the NDP’s thunder by announcing
their plans for a single-use plastics ban, and the Liberal-appointed Advisory Council on the
Implementation of National Pharmacare has recommended universal pharmacare, it is
understandable that Singh is trying to make a clear delineation with Trudeau’s Liberals.
8
Fortunately, there is still time for a campaign Connecting with new voters
refresh. If the NDP wants to have a strong showing
in October, they will need to focus their efforts in Even though the 2015 election had the highest
the following areas: turn-out since 1993, more than 30 per cent of
eligible voters still did not cast a ballot. That
Showing they are the party to fight means there is plenty of room to grow. Evidence
climate change shows that negative campaigns turn people off
completely. Instead, Singh and the NDP should be
The environment is a key election issue this year. emphasizing that change is possible and within
In the age of school strikes for climate change, reach. Then he needs to walk the talk. In the age of
younger voters want politicians to take a stance polarized public discourse, authenticity is the key to
and to be authentic in their fight against climate connecting with voters.
change. They will be looking for bold visions that
recognize the extent of the problem. While their Delivering a strong vision
plan for climate action has several strong initiatives,
including their plan for high-speed trains, the The NDP campaign commitments include a litany
NDP will have to work harder to translate their of big-idea promises including having free post-
plans into simple, bold language to fend off losing secondary education and free public transit. The
younger voters to the Green Party. next step to convince voters that these ideas
are possible is to have a clear strategy that lays
out a plan for implantation. Having now formed
government in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba,
Ontario, Nova Scotia, Saskatchewan and Yukon,
the NDP can make a strong case that it is ready
to govern, but will need to make sure voters
understand its vision.
9
Green Party of Canada
Taking advantage
of the momentum
Written by Gordon Taylor Lee,
Managing Partner at NATIONAL
Public Relations in Ottawa
The Green Party of Canada looks poised to have its strongest showing ever in the next federal
election: their national poll numbers remain solid; they won a federal by-election earlier in 2019
in Nanaimo, B.C.; their provincial counterparts in P.E.I. performed exceedingly well in the recent
provincial election; and the Green Party in B.C. still holds the balance of power in the province,
working with the B.C. NDP in an issue-by-issue fashion.
These are all significant building blocks moving into the federal
campaign. With the environment as a “hot button” campaign issue,
the party could make gains at the expense of the Liberals and NDP in
particular regions.
But they will need to run a campaign based on broad electoral appeal.
While environmental leadership will remain its cornerstone issue from
a policy perspective, they will not grow if they limit themselves to
being a one-issue team.
10To this end, we expect a fairly comprehensive have serious doubts. The NDP has already put out
platform to emerge from the Green Party—one an aggressive green plan, and the Conservatives
that looks to speak to more Canadians in multiple have released a comprehensive strategy. The
regions. Yet the challenges ahead for Green Party political battle on this particular issue will be critical
leader Elizabeth May will be difficult to overcome. for Elizabeth May. As the campaign advances, the
Liberals will undoubtedly be looking to reinforce
They include: that they are “the only party” who can potentially
form government from the centre-left, and that
Avoiding the centre-left squeeze a vote for the Greens is wasted. The Green Party,
in turn, will need to convince those same voters
The federal NDP will be highly cognizant of the to “stay with them” regardless of the results in
threat the Green Party poses to its traditional October.
voters, particularly given Jagmeet Singh’s troubles
in major polls. The Green Party will have to Obtaining official party status
design and execute a bold campaign premised on
targeting: the youth vote; those who have voted It would be a major victory for the Green Party to
Green before; disillusioned NDP voters; and those achieve full party status in the House of Commons.
who are anxious about the climate plans of the Achieving this result would launch the party
Liberals and Conservatives. into a different political “zone” among federal
parties. And this is particularly true if a minority
“Owning” the green file government is the final result in October: the
Greens could play a pivotal role in supporting (or
Many of the Liberals’ major environmental opposing) whichever party wins a plurality of seats.
commitments—including progress on the Paris Their support will likely need to be secured—with
Accord targets—have simply not come to fruition. the support of environmental issues as the basis for
There is a palpable sense that those who previously their decision.
viewed the party as a “green champion” may now
11Bloc Québécois
Renewing its
political offer
Written by Alexandre Boucher,
Manager at NATIONAL Public
Relations in Quebec City
Like a cat, the Bloc Québécois seems to have nine lives. It has often been deemed expired, it has
been placed on life support, and its demise has been announced several times. Although we are
witnessing an inevitable erosion of the sovereignist movement, both in Quebec and Ottawa, the
Bloc Québécois has no intention of admitting defeat. What will the next election hold for this
party, which has had its share of difficulties in recent years?
In 2011, the ever-charismatic Jack Layton reduced the Bloc Québécois to a handful of MPs,
and in 2015, the party begged Gilles Duceppe to return and save the sinking ship. This was
followed by Martine Ouellet’s short reign, which was marked by internal wars, rifts, betrayals
and resignations. Not without first clinging to her leader’s job, Ms. Ouellet eventually resigned
under the weight of internal and media pressure. The MPs who resigned returned to the fold,
with significant consequences on the party’s cohesion.
Since no one was lining up for the job, earlier this year we witnessed the
crowning of the Parti Québécois’s former Minister of the Environment,
Yves-François Blanchet. An unexpected candidacy for a beleaguered party.
Blanchet is well-known in Quebec, having acted as a political commentator
on TV in recent years. A good communicator, Blanchet can also be feisty
and incisive.
The arrival of the new leader at the head of the Bloc Québécois sparked a
modest but sustained rise in polls. According to the latest polls, the Bloc’s
support is hovering around 20%, much better than the 12% under Martine
Ouellet. The Bloc’s ability to rise above this bar could have a significant
impact on the campaign; each additional percentage point could result in
winning electoral ridings.
12One thing is certain: the Bloc needs to renew its Insisting on the balance of power,
political offer if it wishes to recover and win votes
which the Bloc Québécois could hold
back. Three approaches will be decisive:
In an election with unpredictable outcomes,
Align itself with the nationalism the only way for the Bloc Québécois to have an
advocated by the Coalition Avenir influence on the conduct of business in Ottawa
Québec (CAQ) is to obtain the balance of power in a minority
government. This argument will resonate with
The Bloc is fully aware that it has everything to gain Quebec voters, who want to make sure they are
by defending Quebec’s consensus and supporting heard in Ottawa.
the demands of Quebec Premier François Legault,
whose party is very popular, rather than embodying Winning back NDP voters who
the federal branch of an already weakened Parti turned their back in 2011 and 2015
Québécois. At the same time, the Bloc will need
to recruit candidates outside of the traditional The main reason why Quebec is an electoral
sovereignist circles (former PQ MNAs, defeated battleground is because movement is expected
candidates) to ensure its renewal. among New Democrat supporters, who could
give their vote to another camp. Will the social-
In addition, the Bloc can capitalize on the fact democrat voters return to the Bloc Québécois?
that it is the only party dedicated exclusively to Could progressive sympathizers rally behind Justin
defending Quebec’s interests. This will surely be Trudeau to stand in the way of the Conservatives?
a key issue of the campaign in Quebec. There are Will environmentalists be enticed by the rise of the
still many areas of contention between Ottawa Green Party?
and Quebec, and the situation has worsened since
the arrival of the CAQ. Two visions are clashing: on Overall, the Bloc could cause some surprises if it
one side, a multicultural Canada, and on the other, becomes a refuge party for nationalists or federalist
a nationalist Quebec that does however focus on Quebeckers who are dissatisfied or unhappy with
cultural diversity and the integration of immigrants. conventional federal parties.
13About NATIONAL
Public Relations
NATIONAL Public Relations connects clients to the people who matter most; delivering the right message,
at the right time. Grounded in research, insight and deep sector understanding, we bring together teams of
discipline experts from across our network to provide creative communications solutions that move people
in thought and actions. For over 40 years, NATIONAL has been at the centre of issues and industries that
matter, leading change for today and tomorrow.
NATIONAL is Canada’s leading public relations firm, servicing clients across a wide range of sectors, with
offices in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City, Saint John, Halifax and St. John’s.
NATIONAL’s service offering also includes NATIONAL Capital Markets, the industry’s foremost investor
relations and financial services communications practice. NATIONAL Public Relations is an AVENIR GLOBAL
company, among the top 15 largest communication firms in the world with offices in 24 locations across
Canada, the U.S., Europe and the Middle East, and part of RES PUBLICA Consulting Group. NATIONAL is
affiliated internationally with public relations firm Burson Cohn & Wolfe (BCW), a WPP company.
For more information about NATIONAL, please visit www.national.ca or contact us at info@national.ca.
14Our experts in Public Affairs
and Government Relations
(in alphabetical order)
François Crête Martin Daraiche
Vice-President, Government Relations – Quebec Managing Partner
Montreal Quebec City
François started his career in public affairs in 2003. First Martin Daraiche offers his clients high-level strategic
in politics, as Chief of staff at the provincial level for more advice in pan-Canadian public relations and government
than eight years and, from 2011 to 2016, as Vice President relations. His practice focuses on natural resources, energy,
at Cohn & Wolfe Montreal. His clients are active in domains information technology and healthcare. Drawing on broad
as diverse as transportation, education, culture, real estate political experience and an in-depth understanding of
and industrial development, and high technology. His vast government decision-making mechanisms, Martin works
knowledge of the Quebec government and public affairs in closely with business leaders to simplify the most complex
general makes him a strategic advisor of choice for companies issues so they can define distinctive strategies to reach, and
that must navigate the administrative and political maze. even surpass, their goals. Martin is a lawyer and member
François also supports his customers in their communication of the Quebec Bar. Prior to joining NATIONAL in 2008, he
needs and issues management. He is known for his great served as the political and legal advisor to the Quebec
ability to quickly grasp the strategic issues facing his clients Premier. Martin became partner in 2012 and managing
and to produce lasting solutions. He holds a Bachelor in partner of the Quebec City office in 2017. He is a recipient
Information Systems from the University of Sherbrooke. of two of NATIONAL’s most prestigious international awards:
Active in several organizations, François chairs the board of the NATIONAL Way Award, presented to the candidate
the Nature Conservancy Canada for Quebec. who best personifies NATIONAL’s motto, “Trusted Partner,
Bold Thinking ™”, and the Luc-Beauregard Award. Martin
serves on the board of directors of The Arthritis Society and
was a select member of the Governor General’s Canadian
Leadership Conference in 2012. Martin leads the Firm’s
Business Development Working Group.
15Marc Desmarais Jeffrey Ferrier
Vice-President, Government Relations – Ottawa Vice-President, Public Affairs and
Ottawa/Montreal Strategic Communications
Vancouver
Marc Desmarais has been repeatedly recognized among the
100 most influential lobbyists in Ottawa by The Hill Times Jeffrey Ferrier is one of British Columbia’s leading
and Maclean’s. Over the past 30 years, he has developed a progressive public affairs and communications
deep knowledge of the workings of the government and held consultants. He has more than 20 years of experience as
senior management positions in the federal government as a private sector consultant, public servant, senior NDP
well as in the healthcare, government relations and public political campaigner and staffer, and journalist. He has
policy sectors. A fluent bilingual, Marc has a wide network of served as a trusted advisor for a broad range of clients,
contacts across the country. As a strategist, he is motivated from Fortune 500 companies to not-for-profits, helping
by the successful achievement of client business objectives. them get the results they want. He does it by helping
Positive, resilient and reliable, he has an outstanding ability clients navigate complex local and provincial decision-
to solve complex problems and defuse difficult situations. making in B.C., and by empowering them to communicate
Holder of a Bachelor’s Degree in Communications from the powerfully and effectively with the audiences that matter
University of Ottawa, Marc Desmarais is a regular guest most. He has highly developed strategic planning and
speaker at Ottawa and Carleton universities. He is a former management skills, extensive business, government
teacher of martial arts and is also known for his charitable and not-for-profit experience across all key sectors, and
activities including work for the Kidney Foundation of Canada has strong working relationships with the provincial and
and Prostate Cancer Canada. In the fall of 2015, he used his local governments in B.C. Jeff is also an avid runner, and
vast experience and his desire to help others by running as recently set a new personal best in the half marathon.
a candidate for the Liberal Party of Canada in the riding of
Richmond-Arthabaska.
16Kristan Hines Ali Salam
Vice-President, Public Affairs Senior Vice-President, Public Affairs
Halifax Toronto
Kristan Hines is a relationship builder who is driven As the practice lead for the Public Affairs team in
to achieve results. She has spent the past 15 years Toronto, Ali Salam leads a robust team of senior
providing strategic counsel, communications and consultants and advisors providing strategic and forward-
operational support to senior and political leaders thinking advisory services on high profile public and
both in Nova Scotia and across Canada. Prior to joining private sector matters. Ali’s unique approach was borne
NATIONAL, Kristan served as Chief of Staff to the from his experience over a dozen years in government
Premier of Nova Scotia. A strategic thinker, Kristan and politics, and in a wide range of environments
combines strong communications and planning skills relevant to his clients including with think tanks, NGO’s,
with experience in public policy development, issues unions and corporations. Ali believes that an exceptional
management, and stakeholder engagement. Her calm, public affairs offering is found in the seamless blending
steady approach to problem solving and collaborative of intelligence and insights, stakeholder relations,
leadership style allow her to tackle complex problems strategic communications, engagement and mobilization.
with measurable results. Drawing on her network, He understands deeply that knowing what decision
Kristan is well positioned to help clients navigate makers in Government are motivated by and what can
government and build effective relationships with move their opinions is vital to the success of his clients,
decision-makers. In addition to holding senior roles in having been a government decision maker himself.
the Office of the Premier, Kristan served as Director of Before joining NATIONAL, Ali was the Chief of Staff to
Outreach and Executive Assistant to (then) Leader of three Cabinet Ministers in the Trudeau Government
the Official Opposition in Nova Scotia. Prior to this, she where he served as the principal advisor on strategy,
spent six years in Ottawa on Parliament Hill, providing communications and policy on a diverse set of files. In
strategic political, policy and communications advice these roles he oversaw multiple departments including
for cabinet ministers and elected members, both in a budget of over $1b and over 7,000 departmental staff
government and opposition. Kristan is passionate around the world. Previous to his time in Ottawa he was
about building meaningful relationships and inspiring a senior advisor in the Ontario Government at Queen’s
people to make a difference in their province. She Park, managed public affairs for one of Canada’s largest
holds a Bachelor of Arts Degree (Honours) in Political non-profits and has run more campaigns in all levels of
Science from Acadia University and a Master of Arts Canadian politics than he can remember.
Degree in Political Science (International Relations)
from Dalhousie University.
17Gordon Taylor Lee
Managing Partner
Ottawa
Gordon Taylor Lee was appointed Managing Partner
of NATIONAL’s Ottawa office in February 2019. With
over 20 years of public affairs and communications
experience, Gordon comes to NATIONAL having served
as a senior political staffer, an executive-level member
of Canada’s federal public service, and private sector
leader of a global, integrated communications and
public affairs firm. Gordon is a former Senior Policy
Advisor to Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister, Director
of Policy to the federal Minister of Health, and political
advisor to multiple campaigns. Gordon has also led
management teams within various departments,
including Health Canada and Innovation, Science
and Economic Development Canada. He began his
career with Global Affairs Canada, having served in
the department’s North American Bureau and with
Canada’s Consulate General in Seattle. Most recently,
Gordon was Senior Partner and General Manager of
FleishmanHillard’s Ottawa office, where he led accounts
with key clients and Fortune 500 companies across
numerous sectors, including finance, trade, healthcare,
innovation, and manufacturing. Originally from British
Columbia, Gordon holds an undergraduate degree from
the University of Victoria and a graduate degree from
Queen’s University.
18Our office locations
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Box 34, One Bentall Centre 81 Metcalfe Street, 2nd Floor 75 Prince William Street, Suite 210
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T: 1-613-233-1699 T: 1-506-672-1860
T: 1-604-684-6655 E: info-ott@national.ca E: info-nb@national.ca
E: info-van@national.ca
Gordon Taylor Lee Stephanie Bell
Paul Welsh Managing Partner Senior Consultant
Managing Partner
Calgary Montreal Halifax
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Calgary, Alberta T2P 3G3 Montreal, Quebec H3B 0C1 South Tower
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Nancy Arab Serge Paquette
Acting Managing Partner Managing Partner Sarah Young
Managing Partner
Toronto Quebec City St. John’s
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Toronto, Ontario M5V 3B6 Quebec City, Quebec G1R 5M8 10 Fort William Place, 1st Floor
St. John’s, Newfoundland
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and Labrador A1C 1K4
E: info-tor@national.ca E: info-que@national.ca
T: 1-709-754-9614
Rick Murray Martin Daraiche E: info-nl@national.ca
Managing Partner Managing Partner
& Chief Digital Strategist AnnMarie Boudreau
Associate Vice-President
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