The Mercantile Investment Trust plc - May 2020 - JP Morgan Asset ...

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The Mercantile Investment Trust plc
May 2020

Guy Anderson, Portfolio Manager
Agenda

    Portfolio strategy

    Outlook and positioning

    Summary

1
Portfolio strategy

2
Overview of portfolio strategy

Mercantile: a pure-play* solution to UK mid and small cap investing
A diversified portfolio of mid and small cap companies with strong long-term relative performance

    The Mercantile Investment Trust plc                                                                 Annualised return (net of fees) vs. benchmark

                                                                                                              5%                           Mercantile      Benchmark           3.9
                                   Team of 6 covering UK SMID^
     Specialist                     14 years average industry experience
                                
       Team                                                                                                                                                                                 0.2
                                   350+ management meetings per annum                                        0%
                                                                                                                                                    -0.1

                                                                                                             -5%
                                                                                                                                                              -4.5
     Large and                     Portfolio size                      £1.7bn
       Liquid                      Liquidity                           ADV ~£3m                                          -7.6
                                                                                                           -10%
                                                                                                                                   -11.4

                                                                                                           -15%
      Low cost                      Ongoing charges                     0.44%                                                1 year                3 years (p.a.)             5 years (p.a.)
                                

                                                                                                        Excess
                                                                                                                                 +4.2                      +4.6                      +3.7
                                                                                                        return (%)

Source: (LHS) J.P. Morgan Asset Management; ADV = average daily volume (last 12 months), from Bloomberg; Ongoing charges reflect FY19 charges. Data as at 31 May 2020. Performance data
using net asset value per share, cum income, with debt at par value in GBP. Geometric excess returns. Please note Benchmark Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available
for actual investment. Benchmark is the FTSE All-Share (ex FTSE 100, ex Investment Companies) Index. The benchmark is for comparative purposes only. * Pure play refers to the fact that this vehicle
provides investors with access to both mid and small cap in one vehicle. ^Small and medium sized firms

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

3
Overview of portfolio strategy

Performance for the year ended 31st January 2020

 2020 financial year performance

   Benchmark return                                           +16.7%                                      44%
                                                                                                                         FTSE All Share ex 100 ex IT Index                     40.2%
                                                                                                           40%           NAV
   NAV                                                        +28.0%
                                                                                                           36%           Total Shareholder return
   Total Shareholder Return                                   +40.2 %                                     32%
                                                                                                                                                         28.0%
                                                                                                           28%
   Dividend                                                   +4.8% to 6.6p
                                                                                                           24%
                                                                                                           20%
                                                                                                                                   16.7%
                                                                                                           16%
                                                                                                           12%
                                                                                                             8%
                                                                                                             4%
                                                                                                             0%
                                                                                                                                                          2020

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Dividends are not guaranteed.
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data from 31 January 2019 to 31 January 2020, in GBP. NAV returns are net of fees and applicable charges, income reinvested, borrowings at par (debt
valued at maturity face value). Total shareholder return is change in the share price of Mercantile Investment Trust plc. Benchmark is FTSE All-Share ex 100 ex IT. Index return does not include fees or
operating expenses. The Benchmark is a point of reference against which the performance, risk characteristics or composition of the Investment Trust may be measured. However, the Investment Trust
will be managed without reference to its Benchmark.

4
Overview of portfolio strategy

Long term performance
The Mercantile Investment Trust plc – 31 August 2012 to 31 May 2020

    Cumulative returns

     340
                                          NAV                          Share Price                         FTSE All Share ex 100 ex IT                           FTSE 100

     290

     240                                                                                                                                                                       +139%

                                                                                                                                                                                +111%
     190

                                                                                                                                                                                +76%
     140
                                                                                                                                                                                +43%
      90
       Aug 12        May 13          Feb 14          Nov 14          Aug 15          May 16          Feb 17          Nov 17          Aug 18          May 19           Feb 20

                                                              … 10.2% NAV CAGR^ over 7 years 9 months

Source:J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Rebased to 100 at 31 August 2012. Performance data has been using net asset value per share, cum income, with debt at par value in GBP. Please note
Benchmark Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual investment. ^Compound annual growth rate.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

5
Overview of portfolio strategy

A strong track record of income generation

    Dividend policy smoothing income return

       9   Pence per share

       8

       7

       6

       5

       4

       3

       2

       1

       0
           1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

                                             Dividend              Special dividend               Earnings per share                Net revenue reserves

                                                            … 8.4% dividend per share CAGR^ over 29 years

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All figures based on the current trust total shares, after the 10 for 1 stock split in mid 2018. Data as at 31 January 2020. ^Compound annual growth rate
Past performance is not a reliable indicator for current and future results.

6
Overview of portfolio strategy

Our investment philosophy
Rigorously identifying investments with specific characteristics

    Is it a good business?
    We consider the quality of the company through its profitability, sustainability of earnings and capital allocation discipline

    Is it attractively valued?
    We look at a company’s valuation to assess if its future prospects have been incorrectly estimated by the market

    Is the outlook improving?
    Assessing the operational momentum of the business and how is this being reflected in expectations

                                                 Balancing expectations versus outcome

7
Overview of portfolio strategy

National Express
The investment process in action

    High quality business                                                                             National Express – Total Return
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Added to position
    • Diversified end markets and limited regulatory risk                                             250
                                                                                                                                            National Express                  Benchmark
                                                                                                                                                                                        Added to position
    • Leading market positions                                                                                                                                       Reduced position
                                                                                                                                                 Added to position
                                                                                                      200
                                                                                                                                    Added to position
                                                                                                                 Reduced position
    Attractively valued
                                                                                                      150

    • Consistently cash generative
    • Compelling market valuation                                                                     100

                                                                                                                              Initial Purchase
Promising outlook                                                                                       50

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Added to position
    • Steady organic revenue growth
                                                                                                         0
    • Optionality from continued positive M&A                                                             2014               2015                   2016                 2017                 2018                  2019

Source: J.P.Morgan Asset Management, Bloomberg. Data from 31st December 2014 to 30th April 2020. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should
not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

8
Outlook and positioning

9
Outlook and positioning

Economic outlook: pandemic woes visible to all, outlook beyond unclear

UK retail sales and consumer confidence                                                              UK GDP growth forecasts for 2020 at historic lows
     8                                                                                        10                         10%

                                                                                                                          5%

                                                                                                      Real GDP, YoY %
     0                                                                                        0

 -8                                                                                           -10                         0%

                                                                                                                         -5%
-16                                                                                           -20
                                                                UK Retail Sales % YOY
                                                                (LHS)                                                   -10%
-24                                                                                           -30
                                                                GFK Consumer
                                                                Confidence (RHS)                                        -15%
-32                                                                                           -40                           1900    1920            1940      1960         1980          2000      2020
   2005             2008             2011            2014             2017             2020
                                                                                                                                          Outturn    IMF   PG & Co   OBR     NIESR

UK Purchasing Managers Index                                                                         Brent crude oil price ($/barrel)

 70                                                                                                   100

 60                                                                                                           80
 50
                                                                                                              60
 40
                                                               Manufacturing PMI                              40
 30
                                                               Services PMI
                                                                                                              20
 20                                                            Construction PMI
                                                                                                                        0
 10
                                                                                                                         2015      2016             2017         2018             2019           2020
   2005              2008             2011              2014             2017              2020

Sources: top left chart: ONS, GfK, with data from January 2005 to April 2020; bottom left chart: Bloomberg, data from January 2005 to April 2020; top right chart: Panmure Gordon, data as of 30th April
2020; bottom right chart: Bloomberg, data from January 2015 to April 2020. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the
date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future performance.

10
Outlook and positioning

UK equity valuations reflect this uncertainty
The UK looks cheap when compared with other markets

10-year cyclically-adjusted P/E ratio

     50

     40

     30

     20

     10

      0
       2000                                        2005                                          2010                                 2015             2020

                                                                       US 10Y CAPE             UK 10Y CAPE              EZ 10Y CAPE

Source: Panmure Gordon Research. Data as at 30th April 2020. CAPE is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.

11
Outlook and positioning

Portfolio changes reflect this environment

    First priority to reassess capitalisation of portfolio companies and all investment cases

    Selectively exited from a limited number of holdings

    Opportunistically trimmed or added to a number of positions

    Participated in a number of placings to help recapitalise UK businesses

    Turnover in line with historic monthly averages

                                  Vast majority of portfolio unchanged

12
Outlook and positioning

Gearing: selectively increased in April
The Mercantile Investment Trust plc as of 31 May 2020
Historic gearing levels vs. benchmark
     20%
                                      Month end gearing levels - LHS             FTSE All Share ex 100 ex IT (total return index) - RHS
                                                                                                                                                                                        8000

     15%
                                                                                                                                                                                        7000

     10%                                                                                                                                                                                6000

                                                                                                                                                                                        5000
     5%

                                                                                                                                                                                        4000
     0%
                                                                                                                                                                                        3000

     -5%
                                                                                                                                                                                        2000

 -10%                                                                                                                                                                                  1000
     May-15            Nov-15           May-16           Nov-16           May-17            Nov-17          May-18            Nov-18           May-19           Nov-19           May-20

Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
As at 31 May 2020 (weightings exclude cash/cash equivalents). Investment trusts may utilise gearing which will exaggerate market movements both down and up which could mean sudden and large
falls in value. For further details, please refer to the trust’s annual report and accounts. Gearing is the ability to borrow money to invest that money on behalf of the shareholders.

13
Outlook and positioning

Portfolio positioning
Geographic revenue mix as of 31 May 2020

 FTSE 100                                                          FTSE All-Share ex 100 ex IT                                        The Mercantile Investment Trust plc

                   Rest of                                                                 Rest of                                                             Rest of
                   World                                                                   World                                                               World
                    9%                            United                                    4%                                                                  3%
                                                                           Europe                                                               Europe
                                                 Kingdom                   ex UK                                                                ex UK
                                                   23%                      12%                                                                  12%
 Europe                                                                                                                                North
 ex UK                                                              North                                                             America
  14%                                                              America                                                             16%
                                                                    15%

                                                                                                                         United
                                                                                                                        Kingdom                                                            United
                                                                                                                          54%                                                             Kingdom
                                                    Emerging
      North                                                                                                                             Emerging                                            56%
                                                     Markets           Emerging
     America                                          26%               Markets                                                          Markets
      28%                                                                15%                                                              13%

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Factset. As of 31 May 2020. Portfolio weightings calculated as % of invested excluding cash. The portfolio is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights,
allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. Absolute positions are not adjusted for gearing.

14
Outlook and positioning

Portfolio positions
                                                                                                                                             FTSE All-Share (ex FTSE
The Mercantile Investment Trust plc                                                                                Benchmark
                                                                                                                                             100, ex Inv Companies) (
as of 31 May 2020

Active and absolute sector positions

     Relative to benchmark (%)
         8
                    6.8

         6

                                    3.8        3.8
         4                                                  3.5
                                                                          2.7

         2

         0

         -2
                                                                                         -2.4           -2.6           -2.6           -2.7
         -4                                                                                                                                               -3.2
                  Software         H'h'       Leisure   Construction    Financial     Health Care      REITs         Pharma.          Real               Travel
                     &            Goods       Goods          &          Services      Equipment &                       &            Estate                 &
                   Comp.            &                    Materials                      Services                     Biotech.        Invest.             Leisure
                   Serv.          Home                                                                                                  &
                                 Construct.                                                                                           Serv.

Portfolio
Weight (%)
                   10.2             7.2        4.8          6.1           13.3           0.0            8.3            0.0            0.0                 5.9

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Factset. The investment trust is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are
subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.

15
Outlook and positioning

Portfolio positions
The Mercantile Investment Trust plc                                                                                 Benchmark
                                                                                                                                         FTSE All-Share (ex FTSE
                                                                                                                                         100, ex Inv Companies) (
as of 31 May 2020

Top 10 overweight positions

 Stock                                                                 Portfolio weight (%)         Benchmark weight (%)             Relative position (%)

Games Workshop Group                                                           4.2                            1.0                             3.3

Intermediate Capital Grp                                                       3.1                            0.0                             3.1

Polymetal International                                                        2.6                            0.0                             2.6

Bellway                                                                        3.8                            1.2                             2.6

Softcat                                                                        3.1                            0.5                             2.6

National Express Group                                                         2.9                            0.3                             2.5

Spirax-Sarco Engineering                                                       2.4                            0.0                             2.4

Computacenter                                                                  2.5                            0.4                             2.1

Avast                                                                          3.0                            1.0                             1.9

Dunelm Group                                                                   2.3                            0.4                             1.9

Total                                                                         29.9                            4.8                             25.0

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Factset. The investment trust is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are
subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice.

16
Summary

17
Summary

Summary

    Near-term outlook highly uncertain but reflected by depressed market valuations

    Structural reasons for long-term outperformance of mid and small cap companies

    Disciplined investment process, with portfolio positioned to navigate macro uncertainty

    Periods of elevated volatility provide greater opportunities for active managers

    Strong long-term investment performance versus benchmark and peers

 The Mercantile Investment Trust plc provides a pure-play* solution to UK mid and small cap investing

 * Pure play refers to the fact that this vehicle provides investors with access to both mid and small cap in one vehicle.

18
Appendix

19
Financial year performance attribution
                                                                                                                                                Stock: 14.82
The Mercantile Investment Trust plc                                                                                    Attribution summary
                                                                                                                                                Sector: 1.05
for 1 year ending 31 January 2020                                                                                      Benchmark
                                                                                                                                                FTSE All-Share (ex FTSE
                                                                                                                                                100, ex Inv Companies) (

Stock attribution
                                         Relative       Stock        Impact                                                     Relative        Stock         Impact
 Top 10 contributors                                                                    Top 10 detractors
                                        weight (%)    return (%)       (%)                                                     weight (%)     return (%)        (%)

 Gearing                                   -10.01         0.00         1.95             Vesuvius                                   1.43          -19.92         -0.75

 Intermediate Capital Grp                   3.26         77.69         1.65             Amigo Hldg                                 0.43          -69.43         -0.74

 Games Workshop Group                       1.84         127.15        1.48             IWG                                      Not Held        100.80         -0.43

 AVEVA Group                                2.43         82.56         1.30             SSP Group                                  1.82          -2.03          -0.40

 Softcat                                    1.91         71.11         0.91             GVC Holdings                               -0.44         38.33          -0.39

 JD Sports Fashion                          1.60         78.07         0.85             Pennon Group                             Not Held        52.88          -0.37

 Tullow Oil                               Not Held       -74.56        0.85             Ferrexpo                                   0.45          -40.54         -0.34

 Bellway                                    2.69         47.19         0.83             Sophos Group                               -0.30         -11.57         -0.33

 Spirax-Sarco Engineering                   2.19         41.07         0.77             Meggitt                                    -0.81         -3.79          -0.33

 Computacenter                              1.47         75.80         0.72             IG Group Holdings                          -0.48         -19.69         -0.32

Source: Factset. Data is gross of fees in GBP. Attribution results are for indicative purposes only. The portfolio is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights,
allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. Past performance is not a
reliable indicator of current and future results.

20
Appendix

Calendar year performance
The Mercantile Investment Trust plc                                                                                                         Benchmark           FTSE All-Share ex 100 ex IT

 Absolute and excess returns (net) versus FTSE All Share ex. 100 ex. ITs index
            60%
                                                                                                                                                                            53.9%
                                                                              NAV        Share price        Benchmark
            50%
                                                                                                                                                                   38.9%
            40%
                                 30.0%                                                       29.0%     30.2%                                                                         28.9%
            30%
                        22.2%
                                                                                                               17.9%
            20%
                                          12.1%
            10%                                                             5.9%

             0%
                                                            -1.7% -3.7%
           -10%

           -20%                                                                                                                 -15.1% -17.1% -15.0%
                                  2015                              2016                               2017                             2018                                2019

 NAV excess
                                  +9.0                               -7.2                              +9.4                               -0.2                              +7.7
 (%)

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. GBP, as at 31 December 2019. Geometric excess returns. Performance data has been calculated on NAV to NAV basis (cum income, debt at PAR value),
including ongoing charges and any applicable fees, with any income reinvested, in GBP. Please note Benchmark Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and are not available for actual
investment.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator for current and future results.

21
Appendix

Rolling period performance
The Mercantile Investment Trust plc as of 31 May 2020

Performance, net of fees (%)
                                                                                                                                    One                  Three                 Five
                                                                                  Three months            Six months
                                                                                                                                    year               years p.a.            years p.a.

 Mercantile NAV (cum income, debt at par value)                                         -14.8                 -17.8                  -7.6                 -0.1                   3.9

 Mercantile share price                                                                 -18.3                 -19.1                  -3.3                  2.0                   5.2

 FTSE All-Share ex. FTSE 100 ex. Investment Trusts                                      -14.6                 -20.0                 -11.4                 -4.5                   0.1

 Excess return (NAV)                                                                     -0.2                 +2.7                  +4.2                  +4.6                  +3.7

Calendar year performance, net of fees (%)

                                                                                        2015                  2016                  2017                  2018                  2019

 Mercantile NAV (cum income, debt at par value)                                          22.2                  -1.7                 29.0                  -15.1                 38.9

 Mercantile share price                                                                  30.0                  -3.7                 30.2                  -17.1                 53.9

 FTSE All-Share ex. FTSE 100 ex. Investment Trusts                                       12.1                   5.9                 17.9                  -15.0                 28.9

 Excess return (NAV)                                                                     +9.0                  -7.2                 +9.4                  -0.2                  +7.7

Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Geometric excess returns. Performance data has been calculated on NAV to NAV basis, including ongoing charges and any applicable fees, with any income
reinvested, in GBP. Figures greater than 1 year have been annualised. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.

22
Appendix

Share price discount
The Mercantile Investment Trust plc
 Net Asset Value (NAV) vs. Share Price

     300         Net Asset Value
                 Last Price
     250

     200

     150
       May-17                     Nov-17                        May-18                     Nov-18                    May-19                 Nov-19

 Premium/Discount to NAV (%)

 15%
 10%
  5%
  0%
 -5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
   May '17                      Nov '17                        May '18                    Nov '18                   May '19                 Nov '19

Source: Bloomberg. Data from 31 May 2017 to the 31 May 2020.   Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results.

23
Investment objective and risk profile
The Mercantile Investment Trust plc (the Company)

 Investment objective
 The Company aims to achieve capital growth through investing in a diversified portfolio of UK medium and smaller companies. It pays quarterly
 dividends and aims to grow its dividend at least in line with inflation. The Company’s gearing policy is to operate within a range of 10% net cash
 to 20% geared.

Key Risks

    External factors may cause an entire asset class to decline in value. Prices and values of all shares or all bonds could decline at the same
     time, or fluctuate in response to the performance of individual companies and general market conditions.

    This Company may utilise gearing (borrowing) which will exaggerate market movements both up and down.

    This Company may also invest in smaller companies which may increase its risk profile.

    The share price may trade at a discount to the Net Asset Value of the Company.

    The single market in which the Company primarily invests, in this case the UK, may be subject to particular political and economic risks and,
     as a result, the Company may be more volatile than more broadly diversified company's.

    Companies listed on AIM tend to be smaller and early stage companies and may carry greater risks than an investment in a Company with a
     full listing on the London Stock Exchange.

    The key risks facing the Company and the mechanisms in place to monitor and measure these risks are set out in the Company’s annual
     report, a copy of which is available from its website, www.jpmam.co.uk/investmenttrust.

Please refer to the Investor Disclosure Document, latest annual report, and Key Information Document (KID) for more information relating to the Company.

24
Important information

This is a marketing communication and as such the views contained herein do not form part of an offer, nor are they to be taken as advice or a recommendation, to
buy or sell any investment or interest thereto. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Any research in this document has
been obtained and may have been acted upon by J.P. Morgan Asset Management for its own purpose. The results of such research are being made available as
additional information and do not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Any forecasts, figures, opinions, statements of financial market
trends or investment techniques and strategies expressed are unless otherwise stated, J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s own at the date of this document. They
are considered to be reliable at the time of writing, may not necessarily be all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. They may be subject to change
without reference or notification to you. It should be noted that the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market
conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Changes in exchange rates may have an adverse effect on the value,
price or income of the products or underlying overseas investments. Past performance and yield are not reliable indicators of current and future results. There is no
guarantee that any forecast made will come to pass. Furthermore, whilst it is the intention to achieve the investment objective of the investment products, there can
be no assurance that those objectives will be met. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand name for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &
Co. and its affiliates worldwide. To the extent permitted by applicable law, we may record telephone calls and monitor electronic communications to comply with
our legal and regulatory obligations and internal policies. Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance
with our EMEA Privacy Policy www.jpmorgan.com/emea-privacy-policy.

Investment is subject to documentation. The Annual Reports and Financial Statements, AIFMD art. 23 Investor Disclosure Document and PRIIPs Key Information
Document can be obtained free of charge from JPMorgan Funds Limited or www.jpmam.co.uk/investmenttrust. This communication is issued by JPMorgan Asset
Management (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England No: 01161446. Registered
address: 25 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5JP.

Material ID: 0903c02a8290ea52

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