SYSTEMS' VIEW OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EVENT TOURISM IN KWAZULU NATAL, SOUTH AFRICA
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ISSN- 2394-5125 VOL 7, ISSUE 19, 2020
SYSTEMS’ VIEW OF THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF
COVID-19 ON EVENT TOURISM IN KWAZULU
NATAL, SOUTH AFRICA
Dr Dumsile Cynthia Hlengwa
Department of Ecotourism, Durban University of Technology,South Africa
E- mail: dumisileh@dut.ac.za
Received: 14 March 2020 Revised and Accepted: 8 July 2020
ABSTRACT: The objective of the paper was to draw and coordinate views of the impact of the Covid-19 on
the tourism sector with specific reference to events tourism in the Province of KwaZulu Natal. It is estimated
that about 50 million of about 330 million jobs in an industry that accounted for about 10.3% of global GDP in
2019, could be lost due to an equivalent four months’ loss of global travel in 2020. The travel and tourism
industry is multi-sectorial including air, sea, rail and road transportation, accommodation, food and beverage,
recreation, entertainment and adventure, retail, travel services, events and conferencing and other goods and
services, not viewed as travel and tourism products, but consumed during the stay and the destination due to
multiplier effects. Tourism is especially susceptible to measures to combat the pandemic due to restricted
mobility and orders for social distancing. Consequently, the tourism industry was reeling under the global
pandemic as a result of the lockdowns which limited movement only to essentials. The closure of ‘open’
borders, lockdowns, governments’ borrowing and spending to provide relief to households and businesses
interestingly illustrated the interconnected of everything from a health crisis to political and socio-economic
consequences. This paper was aimed at synchronising the views of different event tourism providers in
KwaZulu Natal to generate a picture of the impact of Covid-19 on the tourism industry in the province using the
systems and interconnectedness theory. As Covid-19 was current news in 2020, most sources used were online
news articles and a few available journal articles. The new normal implications for travel and tourism include
unprecedented health and safety protocols, extreme caution, touchless travel, possibly preference for smaller
decentralised accommodation to massive hotels and local outings to nearby attractions to avoid public transport
and sleep overs until travel confidence was regained. This has implications for local attractions to resuscitate
initiatives such as shot left, sight-seeing and excursions to reintroduce travel to culture-shocked nations.
KEYWORDS: Travel and tourism, Covid-19, economic impact, event tourism, systems and connectivity
approach
I. INTRODUCTION
The outbreak of Covid-19 brought the whole world to a standstill with tourism being the hardest-hit of all major
economic sectors (UNWHO, 2020; Deloitte, 2020; Nicola, Alsafi & Agha, 2020) as different nations attempted
to put ‘people first’. Serra & Leong (2020) pointed out that about 90% of the world population lived in
countries with strict travel restrictions to limit the number of new infections. Airlines faced unprecedented
losses (Spartan Shield, 2020) and CAPA (2020) forecasted that most airlines across the globe would be bankrupt
by the end of May 2020 as cash reserves ran dry due to fleet grounding. There were even doubts if countries
would receive enough inbound tourism to keep the industry afloat with closed borders, suspended visas (Roy,
2020) and grounded airlines ahead of the summer season in the northern hemisphere (McCarthy, 2020).
Strielkowski (2020) highlighted that Covid-19 seemed to be much more contagious than its predecessor SARS,
which led to global travel restrictions through full or partial closures of borders and national lockdowns, thus
collapsing the global travel and the tourism industry (Breisinger, Latif, Raouf & Wiebelt, 2020). However,
Novelli, Gussing Burgess, Jones & Ritchie (2018) pointed out that vulnerable as it is, the travel and tourism
industry have proved to be resilient by bouncing back from many macro environmental factors such as politics,
recessions, past pandemics and others.
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
Global, national and local hazards are common occurrences, and tourism as an industry that thrives on
movement, is one of the most vulnerable economic sectors to their impacts (Filimonau & De Coteau, 2020).
Coronavirus Covid-19 was first detected in Wuhan, China, and reported to the World Health Organisation
Country Office in China on 31 December 2019 (Gossling, Scott & Hall, 2020), (see Figure 1 for the location
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South Africa from the epicentre of Covid-19). At that time unsuspecting South Africa was in the middle of its
busy and carefree summer holiday season. Decisions and mistakes made about 11 785km (estimated distance
Wuhan and South Africa) across oceans come to bear on the daily lives of individuals and communities that
were not party to them as the Coronavirus has demonstrated systemic connectivity and vulnerability (Bazilian &
Gross, 2020; Kitenge, 2020).
Figure 1: Wuhan, China the epicentre of Coronavirus
Source: Dreams Time (2020)
Kitenge (2020) pointed out that due to technological advancement a virus that started as a local problem became
a global pandemic killing hundreds of thousands across the globe at the same time in a matter of just three
months and was expected to reduce the travel and tourism industry by 34.7% from 2019 (Lock, 2020). Baran &
Scott (2010); Si (2019); Turner & Baker (2019) claimed that non-linear systems, such as the globe within which
Covid-19 started and spread, intensify the complexity of intertwined systems as Figure 1 illustrates. These
systems, which are a fundamental feature of the world (Si, 2019) have patterns, flows and rhythms that
humanity needs to recognise, understand and learn from (McMillan, 2002) to avoid the same catastrophic
impacts in the future.
Figure 2: Systemic connectedness of the world via 3 200 airports
Source: Routley (2018)
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Figure 2 illustrates the systemic connectedness of the whole world via its 3 200 airports making it easy for the
virus to rapidly spread within days. As seen in Figure 2, less connectivity and distance from extremely mobile
north could be the reason for delayed spread of the virus to the south of equator. Unparalleled global, regional,
national and local movement restrictions accompanied by ‘stay at home’ and social distancing orders triggering
major economic consequences in general (Ghebreyesus, 2020; UNWTO, 2020) and in particular crippling
consequences to the travel and tourism industry which is underpinned by mobility. Subsequently, UNWTO
(2020) expected the industry to plunge by between 60%-80% over the whole year. Hoque, Shikha, Hasanat,
Arif & Hamid (2020) pointed out that in China, like other countries, Chinese were banned to visit other
countries and inbound tourists cancelled their travel plans to China resulting in over 200 000 flights being
cancelled from January 2020 (Mariano, 2020). This disrupted all major economic sectors, dealing a devastating
blow to the travel and tourism industry (Gossling, et al., 2020). In a study conducted in Malaysia Foo, Chin,
Tan & Phuah (2020) highlight the multiplier effect of the travel and tourism industry by focusing attention to
impacts on both airlines and accommodation sectors. The disruptive nature of disasters and vulnerability of the
travel and tourism industry is caused by restrictions to movement (Huang & Min, 2002; Filimonau & De
Coteau, 2020) and safety perceptions of would be travellers (Prideaux, Laws & Faulkner, 2003; Filimonau & De
Coteau, 2020), as well as to intensity of fear spread by the media (Filimonau & De Coteau, 2020). The virus has
demonstrated the complex interconnections and dependencies of the financial markets (Biehl & Thomson, 2020)
socio-political systems, health systems, technological and information systems and many other sub-systems of
the globe.
In March 2020 IATA anticipated potential passenger revenue loss to be about $29.3 billion with panic and travel
restrictions leading to booking cancellations, staff ‘hiring freeze’, unpaid leave, etc. resulting in about 50 million
job losses in this industry alone (Roy, 2020; Tounta, 2020; Joubert, 2020; WTTC, 2020) with huge multiplier
losses. Nicola et al. (2020) observed that the US hotel occupancy fell by 11.6% in the week ending 7 th March
and the sector sought $150 billion in direct aid for employees, China experienced a drop of 89% in hotel
occupancy by the end of January, Germany experienced about 36% drop in bookings while the rest of Europe
faced significant slumps for the European hotel market. Serra & Leong (2020) argued that the industry could
potentially lose five to seven years’ worth of growth as illustrated in Figure 3. With a peak of about 850 billion
air travellers between 2019 and 2020 and a drop of both actual and seasonally adjusted of about 550 billion per
month, this industry anticipates about 65% drop in monthly air travel, with similar implications for the
accommodation and recreation sectors. As on 27 th March 2020, UNWHO pointed to the difficulty of assessing
the impact of the tourism industry due to ‘fast-changing reality’. To illustrated this fast-changing reality, on the
7th May 2020 the UNWTO changed its March tourism decline estimations from 20%-30% to 60%-80% in
2020 relative to 2019 translating to an estimated loss of US$80 billion in the travel and tourism industry alone.
Figure 3: Air passenger volumes
Source: IATA Monthly Statistics (2020)
Figure 4 illustrates that international tourist arrivals for 2019 were positive against all negative figures for
quarter 1 of 2020. Johnson & Boone (2020) cautioned that travel and tourism would change forever going
forward especially as tighter controls on human mobility might remain in place even after lockdowns to halt the
resurgence of the pandemic (McCarthy, 2020). The virus changed the tourism industry within a space of
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months from over-tourism to non-tourism (Gössling, Scott & Hall, 2020) as individuals, companies and
governments of many countries deferred non-essential international, national and local travel resulting in 90%-
95% cancellations in India and other parts of the globe (Roy, 2020; Jahnz, Bottomley & Berard, 2020).
Figure 4: International tourist arrivals 2019 vs first quarter of 2020
Source: UNWTO (2020)
Ghebreyesus (2020) expected that while the manufacturing sector may face a U-shaped recovery in 2020, the
service sector, under which travel and tourism falls, is expected to remain in the doldrums for longer, about 10
months (Faus, 2020) displaying V-shaped recovery in 2021 (IATA, 2020) as the virus is expected to lower
long-term travel growth. In contrast to IATA projections, UNWTO (2020) expected travel and tourism
recovery to take an L-shape for scenario 3 or an open U-shape if scenarios 1and 2 held (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Deep slump and expected air traffic recovery
Source: UNWTO (2020)
Figure 5 shows that since January 2020 travel and tourism had been dropping sharply until March (actual data).
In all three scenarios provided, the travel and tourism industry was expected to start its recovery journey around
May 2020 with the gradual reopening of borders. In all three scenarios the industry is expected to lose about
US$910 billion to US$1.2 trillion in export revenue from tourism, with the L-shaped scenario 3 contributing the
most to the loss.
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Events tourism
Events are an international trend to generate tourism to keep the industry operational even during off peak
seasons (Stokes, 2008). Getz & Page (2016) view events as promoters and marketers of destinations that attract
visitors and massive spending. Hallmark events such as those in Table 1 hold various meanings to locals,
participants and visitors, promote the place where they are held, build the image (Hall, 1992) position the place,
(Mihajlović & Vidak, 2017; Nadotti & Vannoni, 2019) limit the impacts of seasonality and bring about further
development. Thematic (Mihajlović & Vidak, 2017:231) hallmark events synonymous with the KZN, cities and
towns are globally and nationally recognized and include those listed in Table 1. Depending on the dates of
these events, they have either been postponed indefinitely, cancelled or dates still standing if they were
scheduled for later in the year. Mihajlović & Vidak (2017) highlight the significance of events and activities in
positioning destinations and dealing with the impact of seasonality of the tourism industry by (Janeczko, Mules
& Ritchie, 2002) injecting extra revenue into the region. Such events attract participants, spectators and locals,
while also raising the profile, image, awareness of host regions and maintaining and revitalising the tradition
and region (Oklobdžija, 2015). Janeczko, Mules & Ritchie (2002) point to the multiplier effect of events as they
benefit many tourism such as accommodation, entertainment and non-tourism sectors such as transportation, fast
food and retail. As the size of the event grows, so do attendance, media coverage, economic impacts and
potential for further growth.
III. METHODOLOGY
This paper aimed at assembling and coordinating the views of different tourism providers in KwaZulu Natal to
generate a picture of the impact of Covid-19 on the tourism industry in the province using the systems and
interconnected theory. As Covid-19 was current news in 2020, most sources used were online news articles and
a few available journal articles. Newspaper articles and reviews by various tourism providers in the province of
KwaZulu Natal were used to collect and consolidate information on the impact of Covid-19 on the events sector
of the industry after a review of recent literature on the impact of the virus in the industry. The results presents
media comments from various tourism providers and various other tourism players in the province.
IV. RESULTS FROM KWAZULU NATAL
In South Africa (SA) the tourism industry is regarded as one of the pillars of economic stability (Sondar, 2020).
In 2019 SA received 10.4 million international tourists and had seen a total injection of R273.2 billion into the
economy in 2018. Tourism supports 740,000 direct jobs and over 1.5 million indirect jobs (Tourism Business
Council of South Africa (TBCSA), 2020). A survey conducted across 1610 tourism businesses in SA revealed
that 83% felt that their revenues were down by more than 50%, while 34% argued that their revenues were
down by 100% compared to the same period in 2019. Of the sampled businesses 64% indicated that their
primary market was international, 63% domestic and 22% regional (TBCSA, 2020). Makhaye & Mkhize
(2020) pointed out that the virus could deal a final blow on small struggling tourism businesses in the Province
of KwaZulu Natal.
The national state of disaster on the 15th March 2020, banned South Africans from travelling to high-risk
countries imposing a number of restrictions captured in Figure 6. The declaration had major consequences for
the travel and tourism industry as travelling was banned, visas cancelled, 35 land ports and 2 sea ports were
closed, non-essential travel by all including government officials were sopped and foreign nationals who had
visited any high-risk countries were denied visas.
The Big 10 Coronavirus/Civid-19 Emergency Plan
Source: Daily Maverick (15 March 2020)
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As part of its tourism development and promotion strategy, KwaZulu Natal hosts a number of annual (Stokes,
2008) ‘signature’ hallmark events that draw tourists (local, national, regional and international) to the province.
These events keep tourism alive even during off peak months generating visitor numbers and revenue for the
province.
As tourism is a sector of multiple industries (Stokes, 2008), it is expected that the cancellation of these events
would have multiplier effect that will be felt into the future.
Table 1: Some of the annual mega events in the Province of KwaZulu Natal
Event Venue Regular number of visitors Date Current status
Midmar Mile Howick 12 000 swimmers (Sport24, 8-9 February Took place
swimming 2020), 2020
Dusi Canoe Pietermaritzburg - 900-1600 peddlers (Dusi 25-27 February Took place
Marathon Durban website), including a number 2020
of swimmers from Spain, the
US, Austria, Denmark, etc.
(Tatham, 2019)
Highland Amanzimtoti 10 000 visitors in 2019 25 April 2020 Cancelled
Gathering (Amanzimtoti Lions Club,
2019)
Bike Fest SA Port Edward R150-260 million in 2016, 25-27 April 2020 Cancelled
13 427 patrons in 2018
(Aylward, 2019)
Africa’s Durban Exhibition 1033 exhibitors, 6500 12-14 May 2020 Postponed
Travel Indaba Centre delegates (Tourism Indaba indefinitely
2019)
Comrades Durban and 27 500 runners, R335 million 14 June 2020 Cancelled
Marathon Pietermaritzburg in 2018, (Comrades Marathon
Website; Nxumalo &
Newman, 2018; Ray, 2020)
Vodacom Durban Grayville 43 874 people/R300 million 04 July 2020 Postponed to
Durban July Racecourse in 2019 (Rajgopaul 2019) July 25
East Coast Durban Exhibition Over 350 exhibitors 26 June-05 July Postponed to
Radio House Centre 2020 28 October
& Garden 2020
Show
Royal Show Pietermaritzburg 450 exhibitors, 250 000 24 July – 2 Cancelled
visitors (Royal Show August 2020
Website)
Umkhosi Enyokeni Palace, More than 10 000 maidens 31 August 2020 Date still stood
Womhlanga/ kwaNongoma (Dawood, 2019)
Reed Dance
As illustrated in Table 1, these few of many annual hallmark events that were initially postponed indefinitely
and then cancelled due to the lockdown and social distancing requirements, with implications that the province
would lose not only millions of visitors, but also billions of rands that participants and visitors normally spend
in preparation and at these events, adding to the losses expected nationally and globally. The table shows that
the province was set to lose in excess of 140 000 local, national and international tourists and their spending
when considering cancellation of just these few mega events, not counting many other smaller annual events and
international conferences scheduled for 2020.
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V. IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSION
Serra & Leong (2020) stated that future global travel would be different to the way it had always been prior to
Covid-19. The new normal in the travel and tourism industry will be more cautious with the implementation of
extraordinary health and safety protocols, touchless and face-masked travel, possibly preference for smaller
decentralised accommodation to massive hotels and local outings to nearby attractions to avoid public transport
and sleep overs until travel confidence is regained. Pandemics such as Covid-19 offer opportunities to
deconstruct, reimagine and transform the travel and tourism industry even beyond the new normal to the next
normal (Higgins-Desbiolles, 2020; McKinsey, 2020; Mair, 2020: Sigala, 2020) to build resilience to future
crises (Hall, Prayag & Amore, 2017; Jones & Comfort, 2020). This has implications for local attractions to
resuscitate and promote initiatives such as shot left, sight-seeing and excursions to reintroduce travel to culture
shocked communities.
Globalisation and interconnectedness underpins travel and tourism and Covid-19 demonstrated one of the
demerits of globalisation. As Turner & Baker (2019) pointed out, globalization and inherent connectivity and
complexity require continual innovation to harmonise (Schilling, 2000) modular component parts, such as travel
and tourism, that are acting freely but contextually as elucidated in this paper. Since curbing globally-facilitated
connectivity is not an option, lessons have to be learnt from the current pandemic to promote clean, safe, healthy
and crisis-resilient travel going forward through the continuous use of sanitisers and disinfectants, promoting
local and national tourism and exercising more caution among many people as the new normal. This will
necessitate major overhauls and innovation in existing travel and tourism value chain.
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