Switzerland Report Sustainable Governance Indicators 2016 - Klaus Armingeon, Wolf Linder, Reimut Zohlnhöfer (Coordinator) - SGI Network
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Swi tzer landRepor t Kl ausArmi ngeon,WolfLi nder, Rei mutZohl nhöfer( Coordi nator) ol g–Fot a ic .om Sus tainableGovernanc e nni Indic ators2016 ov ©j a SGI Sust ainabl e Governance Indi cator s
SGI 2016 | 2 Switzerland Report Executive Summary Governance in Switzerland showed considerable continuity in the 2014-2015 period. This applies to the country’s overall quality of democracy, policy- specific performance and management structures. By implication, shortcomings as well as strengths have been preserved. Many challenges that existed a year ago still exist, and some have even been amplified to an extreme degree (see “Key Challenges”). Most dramatic in this regard are probably the developments in relations with the European Union, where Switzerland risks a confrontation with unclear outcome. Very little progress has been made in regulating the conflicts with the EU during the past year, solutions to which must be found by February 2017. In addition, conflicts regarding the extent to which Swiss society should be opened toward the international environment and conflicts between economic interests and the political goal of sovereignty have intensified. Closely related to these issues is the continuing political strength of national-conservative and populist forces. The two largest right-wing parties, the Swiss People’s Party (SVP) and the FDP Liberals, won an additional combined 3.2 % of votes in the national election on 18 October 2015, allowing them to secure a majority of seats in the National Council (Nationalrat) together with a few smaller right- wing parties.Green parties lost 2.1%, the centrist Christian Democrats lost 1.2%, while the Social Democrats won 0.6 percent. This tilt of power toward the political right suggests that the extent to which Switzerland should open itself up has become a much more divisive issue to which issues regarding the environment or social welfare have taken a backseat. In September 2015, the Council of States (Ständerat) reached a compromise on the urgently needed reform the pension scheme. Given the new distribution of power in the National Council, it is unlikely that this compromise will hold. There is no doubt that Switzerland is a stable and well-functioning democracy. The country certainly belongs to the group of countries with a high quality of democracy. This applies to the input functions as well as the output of a responsive and responsible government. As in the previous period, the former consociational and corporatist style of Swiss democracy has been normalized in various ways. Switzerland is still a consensus-based democracy, but much less so than was the case 20 or 30 years ago, as populist tencencies have grown
SGI 2016 | 3 Switzerland Report and divisive conflicts in political relations have become increasingly acceptable. And while the social partnership system continues to facilitate smooth economic operations and the incorporation of interest groups into legislation development, the impact of individual firms and lobbyists in exerting pressure has grown. At the same time, the strength of traditional social partnership organizations has weakened. In terms of policy performance, Switzerland must be regarded as extremely competitive. Compared with other European countries and previous SGI survey periods, its policy performance has improved. A major challenge is the exchange rate of the Swiss franc to the euro. On 15 January 2015, the Swiss National Bank ceased to support a lower limit of 1 euro corresponding to 1.20 Swiss francs. This led to a further appreciation of the franc, injuring the country’s export position. Thus far (December 2015), the consequences have been met with considerable success. However, it is unclear whether the country will continue to maintain its competitive position. There are signs that the policy decisions made in 2014 regarding a cap on immigration will lead to greater reluctance on the part of foreign firms to keep up the close trade and production relationships of the past. A failure to reach an understanding with the EU would in all likelihood lead to huge economic costs, provided Switzerland insists on the implementation of the new constitutional article allowing for a cap on immigration. Throughout 2015, however, unemployment rates have remained low and public finances have been strong as the country has maintained a budget surplus. In addition, Switzerland continues to enjoy the benefits of a sustainable welfare state excellent education system. Having lagged from the 1970s until about 2005, Swiss economic growth has today become more dynamic. The country weathered the post-2007 crisis period, the instability of the euro zone, and the shocks of the European sovereign debt crisis remarkably well. While some economic liberalization was introduced over the past 15 years, this trend has not been continued in recent years. For example, the attempt to amend the law on cartels has failed, and domestic industries – in particular farming – have been greatly supported by new legislative projects, including the implementation of the “Swissness” law in June 2013. In 2015, several conflicts emerged between protectionist interests – in particular in agriculture and the food-processing industries – and demands for a further liberalization of the domestic economy. Professionalization within the country’s political and administrative elite is somewhat limited. Political positions in the legislative branch are based on the so-called militia system (or Milizsystem, which is referred to as such
SGI 2016 | 4 Switzerland Report because, like soldiers in the Swiss Army, these are not full-time positions). This applies also to many executive and administrative positions at the lower levels of the political system. Coordination within and across administrative offices is often poor. As was the case in the previous period, populist sentiment, often in tension with international human rights discourse, has grown in Switzerland. Swiss political discourse traditionally emphasizes the sovereignty of the Swiss people, and this is manifest in popular referenda that are only marginally influenced by international legal norms. The gap between popular Swiss perceptions of sovereignty and global human-rights norms was not mitigated in 2014 – 2015. Rather, in the spring of 2015, the Swiss People’s Party began collecting signatures for an initiative to amend the constitution in order to grant Swiss law precedence over international law, excepting narrowly defined peremptory norms (jus cogens). Changing patterns of immigration have spawned increasing conflict. For decades, Switzerland has been dependent on a flexible inflow both of highly qualified and low-skilled employees. As a result, the recruitment of foreign labor was always bimodal, showing a strong overrepresentation of foreigners at the bottom and top of the job hierarchy. On the one hand, these labor inflows relieved Switzerland from the burden of paying for the training and education of a large segment of its highly skilled labor force. In addition, this flexibility helped alleviate pressure on the welfare state, since the nation’s demographic profile was shifted toward a younger, often foreign-born population with a high employment-participation rate. In addition, since most of the economic growth in recent years has been primarily a consequence of an increasing volume of labor (i.e., the number of hours worked has increased due to the presence of more workers, leading in turn to a higher gross domestic product), the growth model is dependent on an increasing inflow of foreign labor under the condition of large markets for Swiss exports. On the other hand, these high immigration rates – representing about 1% of the population annually – continue to produce considerable social costs associated with integration. The country’s liberal refugee policy has become the subject of controversy and presents a second source of political conflict as some two-thirds of refugees have not been integrated into the labor market even after years of residence and more than 80 percent of refugees depend on welfare (KEK-CDC 2014). In the past, opposition to immigration came largely from lower-class Swiss citizens, who felt themselves to be in competition with foreign workers in the areas of employment, housing and education. But the new immigration
SGI 2016 | 5 Switzerland Report patterns have also intensified the concerns felt by middle-class Swiss citizens, who have hitherto enjoyed almost unchallenged status and employment opportunities. During the period under review, Switzerland was forced to accept that some of its policies were no longer practical, and that some advantageous solutions of the past were no longer sustainable. Under pressure from the United States, the Swiss government abolished in 2014 its veil of banking secrecy. In 2015 and under pressure from the EU, the government began consultations regarding the introduction of a new tax system for enterprises. The goal here is to terminate the Swiss cantons’ long- running policy of taxing the profits of national and international firms differently (so-called ring fencing). Swiss elites thus learned the hard way that their sovereignty is strictly limited in certain policy fields. The decline of banking secrecy and the tax reform offered a stark contrast to the dominant national discourse, which argues that Switzerland can pursue autonomous and smart strategies in a globalized world by occupying policy niches left open by the great powers. The traditional discourse of sovereignty through intelligence increasingly conflicts with the realities of an integrated Europe, in which neighboring countries have criticized Switzerland as a free rider. Finally, after the passage of the initiative against mass immigration in February 2014, a large number of domestic politicians claimed – and some may also have indeed expected – that the EU was willing to enter into discussions with Switzerland about the free movement of labor. However, the EU made it clear that it was not willing to enter any such discussions. This forces Switzerland to develop strategies which are compatible both with the views of the majority of the citizenry and the country’s economic interests. One such strategy would be to propose a new popular initiative that could repeal the vote of February 2014. Another, and probably more likely strategy, would be to save face by muddling-through and revising the constitutional rule, thereby giving bilateral treaties precedence over the initiative-based restrictions on immigration. Citation: KEK-CDC, 2014: Erwerbsbeteiligung von anerkannten Flüchtlingen und vorläufig Aufgenommenen auf dem Schweizer Arbeitsmarkt. Studie im Auftrag des Bundesamtes für Migration, available at https://www.sem.admin.ch/content/dam/data/sem/integration/berichte/va-flue/res-studie-erwerbsbet-va-flue- d.pdf
SGI 2016 | 6 Switzerland Report Key Challenges Switzerland faced interrelated challenges as the 2014-2015 period closed, all of which were also evident in the previous period. Arguably, Switzerland’s government cannot avoid developing – or seeking to develop – a convincing strategy with regard to each of these issues. These include the challenges with regard to European integration, to national identity and being a country with a huge share of foreign workers and inhabitants; the increasing problems related to implementing popular referendums; and the need to reform the pension system. First, the country’s relationship with the European Union remains founded on a provisional and increasingly fragile basis. The realities of domestic politics have, in the past, made bilateral agreements the only practical solution, as neither a policy of “going it alone” nor EU membership seemed feasible strategies. However, the bilateral solution is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain. Switzerland will have to offer an institutional solution enabling existing treaties to be updated and further developed, as well as systems of legal conflict resolution that meet the requirements of the European Union. In the fall of 2015, negotiations reached a stalemate, requiring the process to start once again. However, any new institutional agreement between Switzerland and the EU will face resistance in domestic politics. The national-conservative populist Swiss People’s Party has already declared its intent to oppose any reduction of sovereignty vehemently. Even more importantly, in February 2014, the Swiss people passed an initiative on mass immigration that requires a cap on immigration and the renegotiation of all international treaties that could violate this cap. This is clearly at odds with existing bilateral treaties with the EU. As implementation of the policy nears, Swiss political elites are confronted with either having to renegotiate, terminate or deliberately violate the existing treaty with the EU on the free movement of labor. Renegotiating the treaty does not seem to be politically feasible at the moment, as the EU has made a very clear statement in this regard. Terminating or violating the bilateral treaty (partly as a consequence of other bilateral treaties) would in all likelihood have serious economic consequences for Switzerland. And while the need for a way out of this impasse continues to grow, media analyses show that most of the country’s political elites continue to present Switzerland as holding strong negotiating position vis-à-vis Europe and that the stop immigration initiative is a feasible option in reducing immigration.
SGI 2016 | 7 Switzerland Report Similarly, the challenge of limiting political conflicts generated by migration has grown. The share of foreigners within Switzerland’s population is among the highest worldwide. Moreover, an extraordinarily high proportion of elite positions in the economy and the higher education system are staffed by foreigners. Immigration has stimulated economic growth. Some observers even argue that it is essential for the country to continue recruiting highly skilled labor in order to sustain the country’s high economic growth rate. But immigration has also prompted considerable concern, most notably among Swiss workers, about housing prices, jobs, and the use of infrastructure such as roads and public transportation. Swiss workers constitute the base of the right- wing populist Swiss Peoples Party (SVP), which is today one of the strongest such parties in Europe in terms of votes, representation in government and its success in referenda. This strength is not due to an extraordinary large share of citizens with strong xenophobic attitudes. At least in international comparison, Switzerland and some of the Nordic European democracies show a relatively low level of xenophobia overall. Nonetheless, the SVP has been extremely successful in mobilizing xenophobic elements in the population, as demonstrated by its electoral win on 18 October 2015. This points to another challenge, which has become more important given the growing number of popular initiatives that have been approved in recent years. These popular initiatives concern new articles in the constitution that have been developed outside the parliamentary process. In some cases, these initiatives are in conflict with the views of the government and the federal administration, and frequently they are difficult to implement. This has contributed to a significantly larger share of initiatives that are not or are incompletely implemented. The non-implementation of constitutional amendments derived from initiatives is not entirely new. Historical examples of provisions left unimplemented include the prohibition on absinth (1908) and the ban on gambling houses (1920/21). However, these precedents are few and the exponents of these initiatives were not in the center of the political system. By contrast, the number of successful initiatives has grown in recent years, and advocates of these initiatives such as the SVP and related organizations are politically powerful. These initiatives remain only partially implemented because full implementation would violate either international law or international treaties. This puts the administration in a difficult position: While full implementation would violate international rules, partial implementation gives rise to accusations among right-wing politicians that the “will of the people” is not respected. In turn, this generates debates (also in parliament) regarding the institutional aspects of direct democracy. Should there be legal restrictions to popular initiatives that potentially violate international law? The
SGI 2016 | 8 Switzerland Report question is highly controversial as the SVP has launched an initiative aiming to grant domestic law considerable priority over international law. Finally, as in most other mature democracies, Switzerland’s pension system must cope with demographic changes involving a considerable increase in the share of the population being aged 65 and older. To date, the system has been sustainable and provides relatively generous pension payments. But in the long run, absent exceptionally strong growth in productivity or gross domestic product, either the average retirement age will need to be increased or the level of benefits reduced. After several failed attempts at modernization, the government recently proposed a plan that combines various strategies, so that even those that lose under some reform elements will benefit from others. However, this balanced proposal has been heavily attacked from all political quarters. If this plan fails, however, it is very unlikely that a new plan can be developed and implemented before the demographic developments cause major problems with regard to financing the present pension system. In the fall of 2015, the Council of States arrived at a compromise. However, given the new right-wing majorities after the national election on 18 October 2015, it is very unlikely that this compromise will be supported in the National Council. Given the fact that Switzerland has a strictly bicameral system, it will likely take a long time for a new compromise to be hammered out.
SGI 2016 | 9 Switzerland Report Policy Performance I. Economic Policies Economy Economic Policy The Swiss economic policy regime combines a variety of elements. The Score: 8 common denominator is the practice of muddling-through as standard operational procedure and heterodoxy as the primary philosophy underlying economic policymaking. For example, it is a very liberal regime with regard to the regulation of the labor market, in particular to hiring and firing. The rules in this area are very close to those of the United States. By contrast, it was in the past a very illiberal and politicized regime with regard to the in- and outflow of foreign labor. The country’s economic policy regime is based on the integration of employers and trade unions into the policymaking process, with employers having the largest amount of influence (“liberal corporatism”) and trade unions serving as junior partners. For trade unions, this corporatism has made sense, since it resulted in a regime of full employment (at least for Swiss citizens), high wages and generous private social policy implemented on the firm level. In addition, public-sector social policy has been expanded in terms of programs and expenditure levels. Throughout the 20th century, Switzerland maintained a very protectionist policy regime, allowing for cartels and the exclusion of competition. The main beneficiaries were farmers, who were protected from world market competition by high tariffs and strict non-tariff barriers, as well as small and medium-sized businesses and service providers producing for the domestic market. Furthermore, collusive pricing was tolerated, while competition between providers and producers was limited by the variance in cantonal regulations. This latter aspect made it very difficult for businesses to make competitive offers and win bids outside their home cantons. The former policy of protectionism has changed considerably since the mid-2000s due to a deliberate strategy of market liberalization. This seemed to come to a halt in the period under consideration, since about 2005. For example, an amendment
SGI 2016 | 10 Switzerland Report to the law on cartels failed, since it would have reduced the influence of the primary economic interest organizations within the competition agency’s governing board. Likewise, parliament passed a law on “Swissness” in 2013, which established rules on whether a product may be labeled “Swiss made.” Some rules expected to be implemented as a result would benefit strongly domestic producers, in particular farmers Economists have attributed the Swiss economy’s strong growth since about 2005 to some of its liberalizing reforms. Others point to the fact that most of the increase in domestic product is not due to higher productivity (GDP per capita), but rather to the increasing volume of hours worked, which itself is at least partially a result of population growth (1% per year, mostly due to immigration). This growth is conditional in export markets. In the past 15 years, Switzerland’s current account balance has been positive, with exports exceeding imports. A considerable share of recent economic growth is therefore export-driven, which makes Switzerland very much dependent on export markets. The appreciation of the Swiss franc since 15 January 2015 and the country’s increasingly rocky relationship with the EU pose imminent dangers to the continued success of its export-oriented economy. The government levies low taxes on both labor and capital, producing relatively small tax wedges. In return, this liberal state does not make significant interventions into the business cycle. Rather, it used to pursue a prudent and basically pro-cyclical fiscal policy. In times of major economic problems, such as in 2008 and 2009, fiscal stimulation packages have been implemented. However, for institutional and political reasons, these packages have typically been very limited in size. In addition, it proved difficult to implement these packages swiftly. In fact, many of the resources contained in these fiscal programs have not been taken up by employers. Industrial policy as a means of actively influencing industrial structure has been eschewed by the Swiss government. Rather, the government has restricted itself to facilitating the modernization of industries by creating favorable conditions for economic activity. In the financial field, Switzerland has improved its surveillance of banks and has set high standards for prudential banking regulations since the onset of the “great recession” in 2008. The country’s policymakers have long placed particular emphasis on maintaining a prudent fiscal policy (low deficit and debt levels) and price stability. This prudence has resulted from a combination of institutional factors, in particular the fiscal weakness of the federal state compared to the cantons, rules limiting excessive deficits and debts (for example, a so-called debt brake), and the effects of direct democracy. Citizens have typically been
SGI 2016 | 11 Switzerland Report reluctant to accept any policy changes that might imply an increase in taxation. These institutional factors have been further reinforced by the distribution of political power, in particular by the weakness of the political left, and the presence of a strong party (the Free Democrats, which are in this respect liberal) that supports a constrained tax state. Responsibility for price stability is left to the independent National Bank, which is tasked with maintaining price stability as a primary goal, and has the tools of monetary and interest-rate policy at its disposal. In general, decision-makers have pursued a very pragmatic and heterodox economic policy, and have shown themselves willing to disregard liberal norms of policymaking if the need arises. For example, in recent years the Swiss government and the Swiss National Bank intervened massively to prevent the bankruptcies of Swiss International Air Lines, the national airline, and UBS, one of the country’s two major banks. The support of the UBS turned out in the end to be a success for taxpayers. This policy regime, which has been both liberal and protectionist, has come under pressure due to various changes in the economic environment. For one, deindustrialization and a marked shift to a service economy has meant a change in the demand for labor. The industrial sector once offered a large number of jobs with low skill requirements. These jobs were staffed to a disproportional extent by foreign labor. Due to the rules of the work permit system, many foreign workers gained access to unlimited work permits between the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s. However, given their low skill levels, there is not enough demand for these employees in the modern high- skill service sector. Hence, the unemployment curve has shifted upward, and is today characterized by high rates of unemployment among foreign workers with low skills. At the same time, employers are recruiting increasingly highly skilled labor for the service sector. It is true that Switzerland has depended on the inflow of highly skilled employees for the last century, but this process has further intensified during the last 20 years, when the proportion of highly skilled employees among immigrant workers rose. In 2014, the share of foreign workers with tertiary education among all foreign workers is almost the same as this share among Swiss employees (36% as compared to 37%). In contrast, the share of foreign workers with low qualifications among all foreign employees is more than double (25.6%) the respective share among Swiss employees (11.5%), which has contributed to growing social tensions. Historically, the highly educated Swiss middle classes have been very much in favor of a pro-foreigner policy, as long as these foreigners did not offer major competition for this social sector’s jobs and housing opportunities. With the
SGI 2016 | 12 Switzerland Report increasing inflow of highly skilled German labor, this tolerance might have eroded. For example, the 2014 initiative capping immigration has won majority support among all educational groups except those with tertiary education at universities and universities of applied science or those with a high school diploma. But even within these groups, the initiative received 30% or more. Globalization has also led to the increasing importance of international organizations such as the WTO. Given its reliance on sectors such as chemicals and machine production, banking and tourism, Switzerland has had no option but to accept the liberalization of trade and services. Moreover, liberalization was accelerated by the bilateral treaties with the European Union. Even beyond these treaties, practically all new economic law has followed EU standards. As a consequence of globalization and Europeanization, most sectors once strongly shielded by protectionist policies have become liberalized. Agriculture offers a major case in point. As a result of this liberalization from outside, the previous complementarity between protected domestic industries and a world-market-oriented industry – the driver of Switzerland’s post-war economic successes – has become strained. The potential increase in tensions between the export and domestic sectors has not resulted in open conflict, with the exception of some minor actions at the beginning of the liberalization period. Yet these developments have increasingly undermined the country’s system of interest representation and the corporatist structure of interest intermediation. Interest organizations, in particular employers’ groups, have lost support, while their members have increasingly turned to lobbying on an individual-firm basis. On a related note, Switzerland has not yet solved the question of its long-term relationship with the European Union. In the 2014-2015 period, the quest for politically and economically sustainable solutions became more pressing. Previous solutions have entailed bilateral agreements between the European Union and Switzerland, which have had major implications for the further liberalization of the service and agriculture sectors. In addition, immigration policy has changed substantially. Switzerland has abstained from any further recruitment of foreign labor from non-EU countries (for which there is little demand anyway), and has instead liberalized the immigration regime with EU countries. Essentially, this has meant free movement of labor between Switzerland and the European Union, intensifying the new problems and cleavages associated with the recruitment of highly skilled employees from abroad. However, this bilateral strategy faces major problems today. The European Union has requested new institutional solutions to complement and reinvigorate the bilateral relationship. It argues that the implementation and update of bilateral agreements has become too costly in terms of time and
SGI 2016 | 13 Switzerland Report internal conflict. Specifically, the EU has insisted on the creation of independent institutions for the settlement of disputes on the basis of the bilateral agreements, as well as mechanisms for updating bilateral agreements without having to resort to new full-scale negotiations. As of fall 2015, no new institutional solutions have been found yet. Rather, in October 2015, the negotiations on an institutional agreement came to a halt, making a new start necessary, thereby calling Swiss-EU relations into question. Given the country’s close integration with the EU market – between 59% (2010) and 45% (2014) of Swiss exports go to the European Union, and between 78% (2010) and 66% of its imports come from the EU – Switzerland is highly dependent on a functional working relationship with this much larger economic partner, although the importance of EU trade has declined somewhat in recent years. By contrast, the EU is much less dependent on Switzerland. The public initiative to cap immigration when it serves Swiss economic interests that was passed in February 2014 has exacerbated EU-Swiss tensions. Any international treaty that is not compatible with this limit must be renegotiated or terminated within three years. The treaty between Switzerland and the European Union on the free movement of labor will either need to be renegotiated or Switzerland will effectively deliberately violate the treaty. However, shortly after the initiative’s passage, the EU signaled that it was not willing to enter negotiations on this issue. This poses a major challenge for the Swiss economy and economic policy, since it endangers the inflow of the (highly skilled) labor from the European Union on which the Swiss economy in combination with access to international markets depends. Since the treaty on the free movement of labor is also linked with several other important bilateral treaties – if one treaty is terminated, the other treaties are also terminated automatically – this represents a major threat to economic exchange between Switzerland and neighboring EU nations. At the moment, there is no solution in sight, and in all likelihood, Switzerland will have to give in – which may give rise to considerable frustration among those citizens who voted “yes” in February 2014 and who expect their government to reduce the inflow of foreigners. Broadly perceived as a laggard in the development of its welfare state, Switzerland caught up in the post-war period. Today it has a mature and generous liberal-conservative welfare state. In times of demographic change, this welfare state is only sustainable through high rates of economic growth. It is far from clear whether these high rates of growth can be realized in the future, in particular if the inflow of foreign labor from and trade with the EU is negatively affected by the implementation of the constitutional article on mass immigration.
SGI 2016 | 14 Switzerland Report Labor Markets Labor Market Swiss labor-market policy is largely a success story, with some blots on the Policy record. Labor-market flexibility in terms of hiring and firing rules is very high; Score: 9 trade unions and their representatives or allies on the firm level have no legal ability to interfere with employers’ human-resources decisions (in contrast to Germany), and there is no minimum wage – a policy that was rejected by the Swiss people in a popular vote in 2014. Although the “golden age” of containing unemployment through the political management of the inflow and outflow of labor from other countries is past, the achievements of Swiss labor- market policy remain remarkable. In September 2015, unemployment stood at 3.2%. Youth unemployment (among 15- to 24-year-olds) is only insignificantly above the average unemployment rate (3.5% in September 2015), and the employment ratio (the working population as a percent of the working-age population) of 84% in the 2nd quarter of 2015 was well above the average employment rate in neighboring countries. Nevertheless, a few major problems are evident. The high employment rate is due to a particularly high share of part-time work. About 17% of men and more than 60% of employed women work part-time. The employment rate of women overall has increased dramatically in recent decades. In 2014, the female employment rate was 75%. However, the employment rate for women is still considerably lower than that among men (84%). A number of other inequities are also evident. Unemployment rates are highest among low-skilled foreign workers. There is still considerable wage inequality between men and women. In 2014, the median monthly wage in the private sector was CHF 6,189 for all employees, CHF 6,536 for men and CHF 5,548 for women. Not all of these differences can be attributed to different skill levels; discrimination and the high share of part-time employment among women, which is an impediment to establishing a standard career, also play a role. Highly skilled workers from EU countries pose few problems for Swiss labor- market policy, particularly since these employees are quite likely to return to their native country after a period of employment in Switzerland (Cueni and Sheldon 2011). In contrast, low-skilled foreign workers tend to stay in the country even if they become unemployed. The employment rate among older workers is very high in international comparison. The government rejected any proposal to raise the age of retirement arguing that there is not sufficient demand for workers over 65. Raising the retirement age has been a major issue in the current pension
SGI 2016 | 15 Switzerland Report system reform, although those in favor of raising the age are aware that this proposal is doomed to fail if put to a popular vote. Citation: CUENI, D. & SHELDON, G. 2011. Arbeitsmarktintegration von EU/EFTA-Bürgerinnen und Bürgern in der Schweiz. Schlussbericht zu einer Studie im Auftrag des Bundesamtes für Migration (BFM), Basel, FORSCHUNGSSTELLE FÜR ARBEITSMARKT- UND INDUSTRIEÖKONOMIK (FAI). Taxes Tax Policy The Swiss tax ratio is significantly below the OECD average, and tax rates, Score: 9 particularly for business, are moderate. Taxation policies are competitive and generate sufficient public revenues. Fiscal federalism (the responsibility of the municipalities, the cantons and the federation to cover their expenses with their own revenue) and Swiss citizens’ right to decide on fiscal legislation have led to a lean state with relatively low levels of public-sector employment so far. Nonetheless, it is important to note that due to the principle of federalism, tax rates can differ substantially between regions, as individual cantons and local communities have the power to set regional tax levels. However, it should be noted that Switzerland’s apparently small government revenue as a percent of GDP can be attributed in part to the way in which the statistics are calculated. Contributions to the occupational pension system (the so-called second pillar) and the health insurance program – which are non- state organizations – are excluded from government revenue calculations. The share of government revenue as a percent of GDP would be about 10 percentage points higher if contributions to these two programs were included. This would bring Switzerland up to the OECD average in terms of public revenue. Tax policy does not impede competitiveness. Switzerland ranks at or near the top of competitiveness indexes, and given its low level of taxation is highly attractive for corporate and personal taxpayers both domestically and internationally. Tax policy has contributed to an excellent balance between revenues and expenditures. Switzerland has a very low public debt (35% of GDP in 2014) and a positive financial balance – that is, the government’s revenues exceed government spending. The country’s tax policy has come under pressure from the OECD and European Union because of the ability to treat national and international firms differently on the cantonal level. The federal government has responded to
SGI 2016 | 16 Switzerland Report these pressures, introducing a reform of corporate-taxation policy. This reform has progressed substantially in 2015 and will prohibit Swiss cantons from taxing the profits of national and international firms differently (so-called ring fencing). Budgets Budgetary Policy Budgetary policy in Switzerland is fiscally sustainable. Gross public debt Score: 10 (general government) started to increase in the mid-1990s from a low level of 38% of GDP to reach a peak of 58% in 2004, but had receded to 35% by 2014. Structurally adjusted budgets were balanced even during the crisis of 2008 – 2009. In 2015, the federal state ran a positive balance, spending less than it received. This fiscal sustainability is mainly due to the political decision to have a low tax load and a lean state. In addition, keeping the public deficit and debt low has been a major concern of politicians at all levels of the political system. Various rules and means have been developed in order to avoid the dynamics of expanding budgets. For example, on the federal level, there is the constitutional debt brake (Article 126, Article 159): “The maximum of the total expenditures which may be budgeted shall be determined by the expected receipts, taking into account the economic situation.” Direct democracy offers another effective means of keeping the budget within limits. In popular votes, the people have proven reluctant (compared in particular to members of parliaments when elections are drawing near) to support the expansion of state tasks with a corresponding rise in taxes and/or public debt. Even taking into account the fact that some individual cantonal and municipal governments do pursue unsustainable budgetary policies, the total (i.e., general government) budgetary policy achievement arguably puts Switzerland in the OECD’s top group in terms of fiscally sustainable national policies. Research and Innovation R&I Policy Switzerland’s achievement in terms of innovation is considerable. It spends Score: 9 3% of its GNP on research. A total of 75% of research spending is corporate spending with the direct aim of economic innovation, an important factor in the country’s strong overall competitiveness. With a share of about 25%, public research funding plays a lesser role, and depends on five main actors: the cantonal universities, the two federal institutes of technology, the National Science Foundation, the Federal Commission for Technology and Innovation,
SGI 2016 | 17 Switzerland Report and the academies of sciences. These actors are independent of each other, but cooperate on the basis of complementarity and (although limited) competition. The various institutions are highly autonomous, and research policies and processes are driven by bottom-up operations. Thus, Swiss research policy is not centralized, but rather relies on a concept of decentralized innovation with periodic intervention by the federal government. The output of the research system is impressive. The Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich) is one of the top-ranked universities in the world and the universities of Basel, Bern, Geneva, and Zurich regularly appearo on the list of the 200 best universities worldwide. Some deficits persist, however, such as the coordination of universities and the new universities of applied sciences or the weakness in social science and humanities research relative to that conducted in the natural sciences or technological field. Global Financial System Stabilizing Switzerland is one of the world’s most significant financial markets. Swiss Global Financial banks such as UBS and Credit Suisse are global financial players. The post- Markets Score: 8 2007 global crisis and the economic problems of UBS in Switzerland – which forced the Swiss government to intervene massively in order to avoid bankruptcy of this major bank in 2008 – triggered banking reforms within Switzerland. The federal government, bankers and international organizations such as the OECD claim that Swiss private and public actors have been active on the global level in reforming the international banking system, in particular in interaction with the regulatory bodies in the United Kingdom, the United States and the European Union. After the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, the government introduced measures to deal with the problem of banks being “too big to fail.” Though it remains unclear whether these new rules and institutions will be sufficient in the event of a major crisis, the Swiss approach numbers among the most sound and prudent systems of regulation worldwide.
SGI 2016 | 18 Switzerland Report II. Social Policies Education Education Policy Switzerland’s education system is strongly influenced by the country’s federal Score: 8 and decentralized structure, as education policy falls under the jurisdiction of the cantons and municipalities. The system provides a high-quality education. The university system performs very well, as is the case in many other small and open European countries. Vocational training is very solid, and seems to be one of the most important factors in the low levels of unemployment, particularly among younger people. The permeability of vocational and tertiary education has improved as compared to other countries. The number of students enrolled at universities, universities of applied sciences and colleges of education nearly doubled from 2000 to 2015. While women and – with some exceptions – persons from peripheral regions have equal access to higher education, the Swiss education system continues to discriminate at all levels against students from families with low social status. There is no empirical evidence that the education system discriminates against foreigners born in the country. Their lower success rates can be explained as a special case of discrimination against students from families with low social status. In this context, we have to mention a federal particularity in higher education. Some cantons such as Geneva and Tessin have followed international trends favoring general qualification for university entrance, while others, especially in the German-speaking portions of the country, have focused instead on a split system of university and vocational education. Thus, in the cantons of Ticino 53% of all 19-21 year-olds acquire the matura secondary-school exit diploma, allowing them to go on to university followed by the cantons of Geneva and Neuchatel with 46% while in the canton of Uri, only 30% of 19- year-olds gain direct access to universities (2014). However, the effect of this “federal” discrimination is somewhat reduced by the permeability within the school and university system. Likewise, the vocational-training system offers considerable career prospects. Finally, resource allocation within the educational system seems to be very efficient. In general, the quality of the Swiss education system is outstanding. However, given the strong impact of parents’ social status on access to higher education, there are questions about overall equity in terms of access.
SGI 2016 | 19 Switzerland Report Social Inclusion Social Inclusion Switzerland is largely successful at preventing poverty. This is due to an Policy effective system of social assistance, in particular with regard to older Score: 8 generations. It is rare to fall into poverty after retirement. The main social-insurance programs regulated on the federal level (addressing sickness, unemployment, accident and old age) work effectively and are comparatively sustainable. A generous level of benefits is provided. Social assistance is means-tested, and some stigma is attached to its receipt. Life satisfaction is very high, income inequality is moderate, the share of working poor in the population is small and gender inequality has been reduced substantially in recent years. However, some problems and tensions relating to social inclusion are evident. First, the transition to a knowledge-based service society entails new social risks. These will be faced by workers who cannot cope with the challenges of such a society, such as young people who lack either the cognitive or psychological resources to obtain sufficient training and start a normal career; single mothers who are unable to finish vocational training; highly skilled female employees who cannot reconcile work and family; persons (in practice, typically women) who have to care for frail elderly people and cannot devote sufficient time to a full-time job, and other such individuals. Like most continental welfare states, Switzerland has not sufficiently reformed a welfare state with roots in an industrial-age economy to address the challenges of a service-based society. Second, tensions between Swiss citizens and foreigners over the benefits provided by the welfare state, as well as their financing, is increasing. In 2013, foreign workers representing 30% of the workforce accounted for 48% of the unemployed and 47% of social-aid recipients. It should be noted that unemployment and poverty is pronounced among low-skilled workers, where foreigners are over-represented. At the same time, highly skilled foreign employees subsidize a Swiss welfare state that benefits low-skilled foreign workers and middle-class Swiss workers (BSV 2015). In addition, the growing population of foreign workers increases the burdens placed on infrastructure such as railways and highways, competition with Swiss citizens on the housing market, and tightens competition for highly paid and desirable jobs as well. This state of affairs has fueled the number of conflicts and sparked tensions and frustration on all sides. To date there has been no constructive discussion and search for solutions within Swiss society, a process that could include the termination of the mythology attached to sovereign Swiss citizenship. Instead,
SGI 2016 | 20 Switzerland Report right-wing populism is on the rise, with the right-wing populist Swiss People’s Party (SVP) becoming the strongest political force in the country. : BSV (Bundesamt für Sozialversicherungen), 2015: Faktenblatt - Auswirkungen der Personenfreizügigkeit EU/EFTA auf Sozialversicherungen und Sozialhilfe, available at: http://www.bsv.admin.ch/themen/internationales/aktuell/index.html?lang=de Health Health Policy Health care in Switzerland is said to be qualitatively excellent. A Score: 9 policymaking health insurance mandatory ensures that the total population is covered, but care is expensive. Cost efficiency is a potential problem, in particular with regard to the organization of hospitals. Life expectancy is very high, life expectancy at birth is 81 years for males and 85 years for females. As of 2014, a 65-year-old male could expect to live for another 19 years on average, while a woman of the same age could look forward to another 22 years. This is about two years more than in Germany. Obviously, the health care system is important in this respect but is not the only explanatory variable; differences may also be due to the country’s socioeconomic resources, natural environment, or other variables. Health insurance is managed according to a very liberal formula. Premiums for health insurance do not depend on income, and premiums do not take into account the number of family members. Hence, insurance must be bought for each member of the family, although premiums are reduced for children. In recent years, this liberal model has been modified through the provision of subsidies for low-wage earners and their families. These subsidies vary by canton, and policy change is frequent. For example, the canton of Bern has reduced subsidies in recent years. In general, health care reforms have not been particularly successful in terms of improving efficiency or controlling the structural rise in health expenditures. Health care insurance is provided by a large number of competing mutual funds (non-profit insurance programs), all of which are required to offer the same benefits. Hence, there is no competition in the area of benefits, but only in the field of premiums, which is largely a function of administrative costs and membership structure. Considerable discussion has focused on whether this competitive market structure should be replaced by a single insurance company. In 2014, the people decided in a popular vote to retain present system. Even given these problems, the quality and inclusiveness of Swiss health care has shown itself to be outstanding, and there is no reason to expect any major change in this respect in the coming years.
SGI 2016 | 21 Switzerland Report Families Family Policy In international comparison, Swiss family policy does relatively little to enable Score: 4 women to enter the workforce. In a recent analysis examining the ability to reconcile work and family, looking at data from 2005, Switzerland scored lowest among 21 OECD nations. The new federal law providing subsidy payments to families, which took effect in January 2009, has done little to change the country’s ranking in international comparison; nor has it changed the fact of substantial cantonal variation, one of the most salient characteristics of Swiss family policy. The new federal law defines minimum child and education benefits, but cantons may add a variable amount to this basic federal benefit level. In general, Swiss family policy has a clearly conservative outlook with a strong liberal undertone. It is mildly supportive to the traditional family; there are some tax deductions and a period of parental leave offered to mothers (but not to fathers), as well as a very limited amount of child-care facilities. As is virtually always true in Switzerland, there are substantial cantonal variations. The canton of Ticino has a very generous family policy aimed at helping mothers to reconcile work and family; other cantons (and their municipalities) fail to offer any substantial help such as child-care facilities on a broad scale. Likewise, tax policies providing incentives either to stay at home or reenter the labor market vary from canton to canton. However, taking the median canton and municipality, the portrait of a liberal-conservative family policy applies. Policies tend to create incentives for young mothers to stay at home during the first years of their children’s lives. Afterward, mothers are provided with reasonable opportunity to find employment; however, these are in most cases part-time jobs. This allows mothers to care for their children, while also having some limited employment. Taking part-time jobs usually reduces the ability to have a sustained career as compared to the opportunities offered by full-time jobs. Hence, the system works in the sense that it mobilizes women within the labor market, but without giving them opportunities for income and career advancement equal to those afforded to men. In March 2013, Swiss citizens rejected a proposal that would have added an article on balancing work and family life to the constitution. The proposal would have obliged the federal government and cantons to provide child-care facilities in sufficient quantity to enable mothers to continue working if they desired to do so.
SGI 2016 | 22 Switzerland Report Pensions Pension Policy The Swiss pension system is based on three pillars, each with its own logic of Score: 10 financing and redistribution. The underlying concept is that pension income should not fall below the subsistence level, and should provide 60% of average pre-retirement income. The first pillar guarantees a basic income. The minimum benefit level for a couple as of 2015 was CHF 28,200 (about €23,500) per year, while the maximum benefit was CHF 42,300 (about €35,250). Employers and employees finance this through contributions. It is a pay-as-you-go system, and is highly redistributive, since the maximum benefit level for couples (provided to high-income earners) is just 1.5 times that of the minimum benefit level, while contributions are proportional to income. The second pillar is a funded system financed through contributions by employers and employees. Contributions and benefits are proportional to income. Employees whose income from the first pillar already covers about 60% of their wage income are not entitled to this system. Many pension programs, particularly in the public sector, are very generous, and provide pension incomes (first and second pillars combined) that exceed 60% of previous income. The third pillar takes the form of personal tax-deductible savings of up to CHF 6,768 (about €5,640) per year. This system benefits high-income groups, since they can afford to put aside these sums and have the highest returns on these savings given the tax advantages. Demographic changes will present major challenges to the first pillar over time. Provided there is no major change in GDP or productivity growth rates, the ability to sustain this pillar will be strained unless the average age of retirement (currently 65 for men and 64 for women) is increased or benefit levels fall. However, given the solid basis of the pension system overall, Switzerland faces less pressure than many other European countries to adapt to demographic change. However, Switzerland has tried to modernize its system at a relatively early stage. After several previous reform failures, the Social Democratic minister for social policy embarked in 2013 on a strategy for achieving compromise that has previously proved successful in other areas. This consists of compensating those who are going to lose as a result of policy changes with gains in other areas. This implies that the reform is necessarily a package of policies. However, at the time of writing, this reform plan was in jeopardy. In September 2015, the Council of States agreed on a compromise that was rather close to the initial proposal. In all likelihood, this compromise will not be
SGI 2016 | 23 Switzerland Report supported in upcoming National Council debates followiing the national elections of October 2015, which delivered a slim majority of those parties opposing the idea of a package where losers of the reform are substantially compensated. With regard to poverty prevention, the pension system is highly efficient. Every citizen can claim additional payments if he or she is not entitled to the first pillar’s minimum pension. The system as a whole has a high degree of intergenerational equity, as it rests on three different pillars, and only the first pillar is based on intergenerational payments. Financial sustainability will be a potential problem over time, but remains stronger than in comparable countries such as Germany. Integration Integration Policy For many years, Swiss integration policy was predicated on the perception that Score: 7 foreigners were “guest workers,” whose limited stay meant that broad efforts to encourage integration were unnecessary. As many foreign workers gained access to unlimited work permits between the mid-1970s and the mid-1990s, the policy approach grew inappropriate over time. Accordingly, a number of efforts to improve integration have been made, starting as early as kindergarten. Nonetheless, integration policy cannot broadly be called a success in Switzerland, particularly given the very high share of migrants in the population (accounting for about one-quarter of the country’s residents). Yet if the lack of a coherent federal integration policy is undisputable, this does not mean that integration policy is failing as a whole. Many local authorities are doing a good and sometimes innovative job of integration, especially for second-generation migrants. According to OECD statistics, second-generation migrants in Switzerland perform better in school and are better integrated into the labor market than is the case in other European countries. This is not to say that foreigners – who are granted rights equal to natives with the exception of political rights – have equal opportunities in all respects. If immigrants’ unemployment rates and dependence on social aid is above the national average, this is due to the fact that the share of low-skilled workers with a correspondingly higher risk of unemployment is also above average among immigrants. But the lack of a coherent integration policy may add to the problems, and social discrimination is not limited to the labor market. Within the housing market, for instance, some groups of immigrants may find it comparatively difficult to rent apartments.
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