STATISTICAL REFERENCE FOR POULTRY EXECUTIVES - THE 2012 - WATTAGNET
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2012
www.WATTAgNet.net
The
Statistical Reference
for Poultry Executives
➥ Forecasts, analysis, charts and tables give you the full
picture, with additional data available for download.
2012
www.WATTAgNet.net
Introduction to the Executive Guide.............6
WATT Executive Guide to World Poultry Trends
offers an improved way to access additional data
online.
High feed costs impact poultry meat,
egg production worldwide...........................8
High input costs may limit market growth in
developed countries.
Global poultry and egg market
projections ...................................................12
Poultry and egg consumption, production
changes as population grows over the next
decade.
Developing countries fuel poultry meat
production growth ......................................18
Population increases, rising costs lead to trade
growth in poultry and egg products.
China remains world’s top egg producer
in 2012...........................................................24
More than half of world’s total egg production
Poultry meat and egg trade in
international markets .................................28
High feed costs limit growth in many countries.
World’s top poultry, egg companies ...........32
Consolidation continues to be seen in two
top chicken markets.
Egg consumption growth driven by
developing countries ..................................38
Table egg consumption increases due to
population growth, increased uptake of
egg products.
Cover photo: ©Mark Hryciw I Dreamstime.com
2 executive guide 2012
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4 executive guide 2012
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WATT Executive Guide to World Poultry Trends
INTRO
offers improved way to access additional data online
To access the datasets, please sign in or sign up on
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W
elcome to the latest edition of the To access these datasets,
WATT Executive Guide to World
Poultry Trends. This resource is
designed to help you stay up-to-date on the
major aspects of the poultry and egg industries
worldwide. Executive Guide
Covering production, trade, consumption Below the chart, click on
and more for the global poultry meat and — www.WATTAgNet. “Download Excel file for more
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New for this year, we are pleased to offer % ! &
an expanded Market Data section of www. The Executive Guide We have great pleasure in presenting the
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areas for all the downloadable datasets for ! ! Trends for 2012-13. We are confident that
the guide, additional poultry data and Top !' ' it will be a valuable tool for your business
Companies data. ( ' )* throughout the coming year. EG
6 executive guide 2012
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SECTION ONE
High feed costs impact poultry meat,
STATUS
egg production worldwide
High input costs may
limit market growth More data available in Market Data section of WATTAgNet
in developed coun- Sign in or sign up as a user on www.WATTAgNet.com to download these datasets as spreadsheets.
tries.
In 2012, global meat
production is projected to ➥World poultry meat production trend 1995-2012 –
expand by nearly 2 percent www.wattagnet.com/154342.html
to 302 million metric tons, ➥Largest egg producing countries in 2010 –
according to estimates from www.wattagnet.com/154312.html
the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United ➥World meat market production and trade estimates 2010-
Nations. This growth 12 – www.wattagnet.com/154424.html
will be driven by gains in ➥EU egg imports by product 2011-2012 –
pig meat production and www.wattagnet.com/154421.html
poultry production, which
for the first time in history ➥Population growth rates by world region to 2021 –
exceeded 100 million metric www.wattagnet.com/154466.html
tons, reaching a record
101.6 million metric tons in
2011, according to FAO (Figure 1). Overall, the meat market’s India is expected to reach a record 3.2 million metric tons in
growth will depend on feed prices and animal diseases. Much 2012 thanks to vertical integration among producers and an
growth will come from developing countries in 2012, while expanding middle-class population, according to estimates
developed countries may see a second year of lower output from the Foreign Agricultural Service/U.S. Department of
and profitability with stagnating domestic meat consumption, Agriculture. However, with a record seven Asian countries
high input costs and competition from developing countries. reporting outbreaks of Avian influenza in February 2012,
production growth in this region will depend on these poultry
Poultry meat production and consumption health concerns for the remainder of the year.
Global poultry production is expected to increase 1.8 Global broiler meat production growth will remain
percent by the end of 2012 to a projected 103.5 million metric suppressed and profitability will be a concern for producers
tons (Table 1). Much of the growth in poultry production also facing high feed prices and trade disputes. Projections
will come from Asia, specifically, China, India, Japan, the completed in April 2012 by the Foreign Agricultural Service/
Republic of Korea and Turkey. Production of broiler meat in USDA for broiler meat production in Brazil, the United States
FIGURE 1: WORLD POULTRY MEAT PRODUCTION TREND 19952012
120,000
100,000
poultry meat production (kt)
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
year
8 executive guide 2012
TABLE 1: WORLD MEAT MARKET PRODUCTION AND TRADE ESTIMATES
2010 2011 estimate 2012 forecast Change: 2012 over 2011
WORLD BALANCE Production (million metric tons) %
Total meat production 294.6 297.2 302 1.6
Bovine meat 67.5 67.5 67.5 -
Poultry meat 98.2 101.6 103.5 1.8
Pig meat 109.9 109 111.7 2.6
Ovine meat 13.5 13.5 13.6 0.9
Trade 26.6 28.5 29.2 2.4
Bovine meat 7.7 7.8 8.1 4
Poultry meat 11.6 12.6 13 3.1
Pig meat 6.2 7.1 7 -0.7
Ovine meat 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.4
SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS
Per capita food consumption (kg per year)
World 42.5 42.3 42.5 0.5
Developed 79.2 78.9 78.4 -0.5
Developing 32.4 32.3 32.8 1.5
FAO MEAT PRICE INDEX 2010 2011 2012 (January-April) % change (January-April 2012 over
(2002-2004=100) January-April 2011)
152 157 179 3.3
Source: FAO Food Outlook May 2012
executive guide 2012 9
SECTION ONE
FIGURE 2: EVOLUTION OF EGG PRICES IN THE EU Rising domestic demand with an
STATUS
increasing population will continue
185 to raise imports in Africa, notably in
Egypt, a country also hit by the spread
of Avian influenza outbreaks in early
165 2012, as well as in Angola, Benin and
Ghana, where regional dependency on
145 imports is currently estimated at 24
euro/100kg
percent of domestic consumption, up
from 18 percent in 2009.
125
Changes in egg production
in the EU
105 The year 2012 also brought about
changes in the egg market as a result of
85 the EU Animal Welfare Directive banning
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 conventional battery cages. On January
week 1, a 12-year transitional period expired
requiring that EU member states be fully
Avg 07-11 2009 2010 Avg 2011 cage only 2011 2012
compliant with the directive.
As a result, European egg prices
spiked after the January 1 deadline
and China were all lowered from 2012 when it joins, but progressively (Figure 2). This was partially attributed
earlier projections to 13.3 million tons, decline with increased domestic to a shortage of eggs as producers
16.4 million tons and 13.7 million tons, production. EU poultry meat imports switched from using conventional
respectively. Globally, broiler meat will also slow as the industry conforms cages, as well as increased costs of
production was revised downward by to the EU Animal Welfare Directive production in alternative housing
881,000 from previous forecasts to banning the use of conventional battery (Figure 3). Not only did the EU see a
82.2 million tons. cages in 2012. spike in shell egg prices, but the price
Despite trade disputes, poultry Moreover, world meat consumption of eggs in the breaking market also
meat trade is still forecast to rise continues to grow at one of the increased to nearly double what is
by 3 percent to 13 million metric highest rates compared to other major normal. EU egg prices have since been
tons in 2012. World poultry import agricultural commodities, in spite of steadying slightly and decreasing, said
growth will be led by countries in the United Nations projections that world Herman Versteijlen, director agricultural
Middle East, Southeast Asia and Latin population growth will slow to an markets for the European Commission.
America, according to FAO. After a average of 1.02 percent per year over Prices of eggs in China, the world’s
World Trade Organization-induced the next decade. Africa will experience largest producer, have also been on the
increase in the poultry tariff-rate quota, the fastest population growth at more rise this year due to decreased output
Russia’s poultry meat imports are than 2 percent per year, more than caused by weather and rising costs of feed
expected to pick up slightly again in double any other region (Table 2). ingredients, among other factors. The
TABLE 2: POPULATION GROWTH RATES BY WORLD REGION
Average annual growth rate % Number of additional people (millions)
2002-11 2012-21 2012-2021
World 1.17 1.02 678
Africa 2.38 2.29 233
Latin America and Caribbean 1.19 0.97 55
North America 0.92 0.82 27
Europe 0.19 0.11 7
Asia and Pacific 1.14 0.91 345
China 0.52 0.3 43
India 1.46 1.2 160
Oceania Developed 1.56 1.16 3
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021, UN World Population Prospects
10 executive guide 2012FIGURE 3: EU EGG PRICE 20062012 2002 to nearly 25 percent in 2011.
Egg exports set records in
200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 the US
180 In the U.S., exports for table eggs and
160 egg products set new records for volume
140 and value in the first four months of 2012,
120 according to Jim Sumner, president,
euro/100kg
USA Poultry & Egg Export Council,
100
which follows a record-setting 2011.
80 An estimated 275 million dozen eggs
60 were exported from the U.S. in 2011, 30
40 percent more than the 10-year average for
annual U.S. exports. Hong Kong remains
20
the largest market for U.S. egg exports,
0 followed by Canada. Sumner said further
Jan/06 Jan/07 Jan/08 Jan/09 Jan/10 Jan/11 Jan/12
opportunities for growth in the U.S. egg
year
export market exist in the EU, where
U.S. eggs can serve as a replacement
for eggs lost during the transition from
average price of whole eggs in China rose and fourth quarters of 2012, given price conventional cages. Another potential
by 7.3 percent on August 11 from July 21, increases in agricultural products and fuel, market of growth for U.S. eggs is India,
which is also fueling inflation concerns China Merchants Securities estimates. where domestic production will be unable
in that country, where the consumer price In Australia, consumer demand for to keep up with consumption as the
index hit a 30-month low in July. Inflation free-range eggs as opposed to cage eggs population grows at a projected annual
is expected to remain at 1.9 percent and has picked up, where the market share growth rate of 1.2 percent from 2012 to
2.5 percent, respectively, in the third has increased from about 8 percent in 2021. EG
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executive guide 2012 11SECTION 2
Global poultry and egg market projections
FORECAST
Poultry and egg consumption, production changes as population
grows over the next decade.
FIGURE 2: POPULATION GROWTH TO 2050 IN DEVELOPED AND
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
I
n the year 2021, world poultry 10
meat production is projected to World population 2050
9.5 billion
reach 127.2 million metric tons. 8
Although the world’s population
population in billions
World population 2010 Rest of world
growth rate is expected to slow to just 6.8 billion 5.3 billion
1.02 percent per year over the next 6
decade (Figure 1), nearly 680 million
additional people will need food, fiber 4 India
and fuel by 2021. 1.8 billion
China
2
World population 1.4 billion
growth slows Developed
In 2030, the world will 0 countries
have an estimated 8.3 billion 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 1 billion
people, and in 2050, the world
will be home to 9.3 billion
Source: United Nations Population Reference Bureau (from “The Challenge of our Times: Why Feeding the World will Require Finding the Optimal Combination
people. This means that a
of Natural and Human Resources,” by Carl Hausmann, managing director, Bunge Ltd.)
70 percent increase in food
production will be necessary
between now and 2050 in order to keep up with the growing of the United Nations and the Organisation for Economic
global population, according to a presentation given by Carl Co-operation and Development based the projections on a
Hausmann, managing director at Bunge Ltd. series of assumptions. Some of these assumptions included
In preparing the latest “Agricultural Outlook” publication the eventual containment of the sovereign debt and banking-
on global projections for the agriculture and food sectors from sector problems in the Euro zone that are currently slowing
2012 through 2021, the Food and Agriculture Organization economic growth, as well as high energy and oil prices.
The nominal crude oil price is
FIGURE 1: POPULATION GROWTH RATE PERCENTAGES BY expected to be higher than in the
WORLD REGION past on account of higher crop
costs, increasing at an average
Middle Africa annual growth rate of 2.9
2.5
East percent, from $111 per barrel in
Developing 2011 to $142 per barrel in 2021.
2.0 Latin
countries The greatest population
America
average annual percent
Asia growth will be in developing
1.5 World United
States countries (Figure 2). Developing
countries will contain about
1.0 Developed 6.9 billion people by 2030, and
countries
will account for 85 percent of
0.5 Former
Soviet the global population in 2050.
Union Thus, these countries will make
0.0 up much of the demand growth
1991-2000 2001-2010 2010-2021 for poultry meat and eggs during
-0.5 that time.
12 executive guide 2012Among OECD countries, Turkey is expected to have the FIGURE 4: WORLD MEAT MARKET SHARES IN 2021
highest growth rate over the next 10 years, at more than
4 percent per year. Brazil, Russia, India and China are all Production by type of meat
expected to continue growing over the next ten years at about
8 percent per year.
Egg consumption on the rise in developing Sheep 16
(x 1 million metric tons) Poultry 127
countries (x 1 million metric tons)
Projections from FAO suggest that global egg consumption
will rise from 6.5 kg per person per year in 1997/99 to 8.9
kg per person per year in 2030 in developing countries. In
industrial countries, egg consumption is projected to rise from
13.5 kg per person per year in 1997/99 to 13.8 kg per person Pork 126
per year in 2030. Beef/veal 77 (x 1 million metric tons)
More than 67 percent of demand for eggs by 2015 will (x 1 million metric tons)
come from Asia, according to Professor Hans-Wilhelm
Windhorst. In China, where egg consumption is more
than double the average for developing countries, a rise in
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021
consumption from 15 kg per person per year in 1997/99 to 20
kg per person per year in 2030 is likely based on FAO data.
Additional data from FAO suggest
that the world’s production of eggs
TABLE 1: WORLD MEAT PRODUCTION PROJECTION TO 2021
will reach 70.4 million metric tons in
World region % growth
2015 and 89.9 million metric tons in
Meat type 2009-11 2021 Amount increase 2012-2021
2030, at a growth rate of 1.6 percent
per year from 2015 through 2030. Of Poultry meat (Kt) Developed 40,595 47,438 6,843 1.36
this global total, developing countries Developing 58,075 79,763 21,688 2.75
will produce 50.7 million metric tons Pork (Kt) Developed 41,417 45,189 3,772 0.73
of eggs in 2015 and 69 million metric Developing 67,214 81,053 13,839 1.73
tons of eggs in 2030. Beef/veal (Kt) Developed 29,726 32,396 2,670 1.45
Developing 35,905 44,107 8,202 2.02
Shifts in the makeup of
global meat markets Sheep meat (Kt) Developed 3,115 3,462 347 1.2
Globally, meat production is also Developing 9,996 12,397 2,401 1.97
expected to slow from previous All meats (Kt) Developed 114,853 128,485 13,632 4.74
growth rates over the next decade Developing 171,190 217,320 46,130 8.47
(Table 1). FAO projects world meet (Poultry meat is expressed as ready-to-cook equivalent weight, pork and beef/veal as carcass-weight equivalent)
production will slow from an average Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021
growth rate of 2.2 percent per year in
FIGURE 3: PRODUCTION GROWTH BY MEAT TYPE 19952021
140
120
100 Pig meat
Poultry meat Bovine meat
(unit = Mt)
80
60
40
Sheep meat
20
0
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
year
executive guide 2012 13SECTION 2
FIGURE 5: INCREASE IN MEAT CONSUMPTION BY WORLD REGION
FORECAST
percent per year and 5 percent per year,
BETWEEN 200911 AND 2021
respectively, over the last decade, are
Other 4 % projected to average growth in the 2
percent per year range to 2021 (Figure
Europe 6 % 3). In general, developing countries will
North America account for 77 percent of additional
8% meat production growth during the
period to 2021. Poultry production will
continue to grow at the fastest rate (2.2
Africa 8 % percent per year) compared to other
Asia and Pacific meats, and will have overtaken pig meat
56% by the end of 2021 with the highest
production volume. By 2021, poultry
meat production will likely reach more
than 127 million metric tons, compared
Latin America and to pig meat’s nearly 126 million metric
Caribbean 18% tons (Figure 4).
As with demand for eggs, much of
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021
the global consumption of meat will be
!More data available in Market Data section of WATTAgNet
Sign in or sign up as a user on www.WATTAgNet.com to download these datasets as spreadsheets.
➥World meat production projection to 2021 www.wattagnet.com/154339.html
➥Poultry meat consumption forecasts to 2021 www.wattagnet.com/154316.html
➥World poultry meat projection to 2021 www.wattagnet.com/154344.html
➥USA poultry forecasts 2010-2013 www.wattagnet.com/154327.html
➥USA egg long-term projections to 2021 www.wattagnet.com/154320.html
➥Population and GDP projections to 2050 www.wattagnet.com/154463.html
➥Meat production projections by year to 2021 www.wattagnet.com/154412.html
➥Global egg production and growth projections 1997-2030
www.wattagnet.com/154404.html
➥Production growth by meat type 1995-2021 www.wattagnet.com/154415.html
meat as 90 percent of their extra meat, except for in Eastern !! = !' !
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executive guide 2012 15SECTION 2
FORECAST
While meat exports overall are
FIGURE 6: WORLD POULTRY MEAT GROWTH RATE PROJECTIONS
projected to rise by 19 percent by
2021 compared to 2009-11, led by
7.00
an expansion in poultry and beef Growth rate % 2002-2011 Growth rate % 2012-2021
shipments, annual trade growth overall 6.00
relative to earlier periods (Figure 5.00
6). Poultry trade, which grew at an
growth rate %
annual rate of 5.5 percent over the 4.00
last decade, will grow at a rate of less
than 2 percent to 2021. The largest 3.00
contributors to poultry trade growth
will be the U.S. and Brazil, which 2.00
will account for nearly 80 percent of
world poultry trade expansion by 2021. 1.00
Import growth will also be led by
0.00
countries in the Middle East, Southeast Production Exports Imports Consumption Consumption
Asia and Latin America. EG (Kt rtc) (Kt rtc) (Kt rtc) total (Kt rtc) per person
(Kg rwt)
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021
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I: www.meyn.comSECTION 3
Developing countries fuel poultry meat
MEAT PRODUCTION
production growth
High feed costs limit growth in many countries.
D
emand in rapidly growing developing TABLE 1: BROILER MEAT PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
countries will drive world meat 20082012
production to expand over the
(x 1 million metric tons, ready-to-cook equivalent)
next decade, led by poultry meat production
growing at a rate of about 2 percent per year. Country
Production 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Oct.) 2012 (April)
Nearly 104 million metric tons of poultry meat
China 11.84 12.1 12.55 13.2 13.8 13.73
will be produced in 2012 after surpassing the
100-million-metric-ton mark for the first time Brazil 11.033 11.023 12.312 12.863 13.602 13.25
in history in 2011 (Figure 1). Of this total, global EU-27 8.594 8.756 9.202 9.42 9.63 9.6
broiler production will account for nearly 82
India 2.49 2.55 2.65 2.9 2.75 3.2
million metric tons, according to a recent U.S.
Mexico 2.853 2.781 2.822 2.9 2.892 2.925
Department of Agriculture World Agricultural
Supply and Demand Estimates report. Russia 1.68 2.06 2.31 2.575 2.75 2.725
Argentina 1.435 1.5 1.68 1.77 1.775 1.85
High input costs drive up Turkey 1.17 1.25 1.43 1.614 1.65 1.687
poultry meat prices
Indonesia 1.35 1.409 1.465 1.515 1.54 1.54
Prices in the poultry meat market
are expected to remain high, due to Thailand 1.17 1.2 1.28 1.35 1.42 1.42
= Others 12.687 13.003 13.465 13.619 14.662 13.865
prices for feed grains and energy.
Total Foreign 56.302 57.632 61.166 63.726 66.471 65.792
Prices for all meats are currently at
United States 16.561 15.935 16.563 16.694 16.603 16.401
their highest levels in the past 15 to 20
years. In fact, in April, the Food and Total 72.863 73.567 77.729 80.42 83.074 82.193
Agriculture Organization of the United
Source: USDA-FAS http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/livestock_poultry.pdf
Nations’ meat price index rose to the
FIGURE 1: WORLD MEAT PRODUCTION TREND 20002012
120.00
100.00
million metric tons
80.00
60.00
40.00
Pork Poultry Beef and veal
20.00
0.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
year
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www.foodmate.nl www.foodmateusa.comSECTION 3
MEAT PRODUCTION
FIGURE 2: GLOBAL BROILER PRICE INDEX VERSUS FEED highest level of 182 points, surpassing
COST INDEX the record set in November 2011 when
the index reached 181. Poultry meat
250% prices are projected to remain close to
BROILER PRICE INDEX current levels, according to FAO, so
200% long as energy and feed costs remain
high. Figure 2 illustrates the trend
of rising broiler prices compared to
150%
index
rising feed prices in major broiler-
producing countries. However, as
100% the industry adapts to higher costs,
poultry producers should see their
50% Z
US FEED COSTS INDEX on-farm productivity will also be
important for gains over the next
0%
decade. For example, the number of
QI
QII
QIII
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
QIV
QI
QII
QIII
QIV
QI
birds is projected to increase over the
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
next decade to 24.3 billion head, but an
Feed EU US Brazil China
Source: Bloomberg/EU/Rabobank
less feed per bird will be required.
The expansion in meat production
over the next 10 years will be
FIGURE 3: MEAT PRODUCTION INCREASE BETWEEN THE BASE largely due to production growth
PERIOD 200911 AND 2021 in developing countries, while
70 growth slows in many developed
meat production in million metric tons
6.84 0.35 countries. Between 2009-11 and
60
3.77 13.63 2021, developing countries will
50 2.40 2.67
account for 77 percent of the
40 21.69 growth in global meat production,
compared to 23 percent from
30
developed countries (Figure
46.13
20 13.84 3). Developing countries are
10 expected to increase their share
8.20 of global poultry meat production
0
Beef Pork Poultry Sheep Beef Pork Poultry Sheep total to 63 percent by 2021 thanks to
developing countries developed countries increases in productivity on farms
and increasing returns to scale
FIGURE 4: DEVELOPMENT OF WORLD POULTRY MEAT PRODUCTION
120.00
production (x 1 million metric tons)
100.00
80.00
60.00
40.00
20.00
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
year
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info.poultry@marel.com | www.marel.com/poultrySECTION 3
FIGURE 5: BROILER FARM MODERNIZATION TREND IN with larger farms.
MEAT PRODUCTION
=
CHINA
[ =Z! =\=
100% ] ! ! '
7% 6% 9% 12% 15% ! ' (
90% 8% 11% !!^" V_=
15%
80% 15% !
18% 25%
70% ' >$
40%
60% #
39% ` { ! '
50%
38% [ !
40% J*)J= {
70% 64%
30% 35% [ !)QX
23%
20% J*)J=
18% ! |
10% 14%
7% 8% !
0%
2000 2005 2010 estimate 2015 forecast 2020 forecast
!!
backyard farm (TABLE 2: USA POULTRY PRODUCTION, DISAPPEARANCE, MARKET PRICES
broiler meat in 2012.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Africa’s poultry meat
Production, million lb production growth in
Broilers 34,063 35,365 35,500 36,126 36,906 35,511 36,911 37,391 38,040 37,100 2012 has also been
Turkeys 5,454 5,504 5,682 5,958 6,246 5,663 5,643 5,727 5,775 5,935 limited by the effects of
Per capita disappearance, retail lb high feed costs and rising
imports in such countries
Broilers 84.4 85.8 86.5 85.4 83.5 79.6 82.2 84.5 84.3 80.5
as Ghana, Angola, Benin
Turkeys 17.1 16.7 16.9 17.5 17.6 16.9 16.4 16.1 16.2 16.3
and the Congo.
Market prices Russia’s poultry meat
Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb 74.10 70.80 64.4 76.40 79.70 77.60 82.9 82-85 83-89 83-90 production growth, which
Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb 69.70 73.40 77.0 82.10 87.50 79.50 90.4 97-101 92-100 101-110 grew at an average of 14
Forecasts are in bold. percent annually over the
Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Supporting Materials. last decade, according
to FAO, is projected to
vertical integration and modernization from about 1.8 million metric tons slow to an average of about 2 percent
in China means more broilers will in 2011 to 1.9 million metric tons. a year over the coming decade to
be produced on commercial farms Likewise in Mexico, broiler production 2021. Russia’s government will spend
over the coming decade than in the growth will have slowed to just 0.9 more than $9 billion on domestic
past and will account for the majority percent in 2012, Rabobank estimates, agriculture in 2013, including poultry
(40 percent) of production by 2020. bringing total broiler meat production production. Since 2006, the country
In comparison, the vast majority (70 in Mexico close to 2.93 million metric has either added or modernized more
percent) of broilers were produced on tons in 2012. than 400 poultry facilities. By 2020,
farms with less than 2,000 birds just In the U.S., falling chick placements Russia’s production of poultry meat is
a decade ago in China. Furthermore, will lead broiler meat production expected to stand at 4.5 million metric
India’s production of broiler meat growth to decline in 2012 by 1.8 tons, making the country almost self-
is projected to increase from 2.9 percent. USDA forecasts the U.S., EG
million metric tons in 2011 to a record the top producer, will have an output
3.2 million metric tons in 2012; an of nearly 16.4 million metric tons of
expanding middle class will also fuel broiler meat in 2012, with growth
demand in this country, and thus, slowed by high feed costs. This is
greater production, also driven by the equivalent of approximately
vertical integration. 38,040 million pounds of broiler meat
produced in 2012, declining to nearly
Production growth in Latin 37,100 million pounds of broiler
America slows meat in 2013 (Table 2). Additionally,
Overall, world poultry meat the U.S. will produce 5,775 million
production growth will slow from an pounds of turkey meat in 2012.
average of 2.2 percent per year the High feed costs and a contracting
previous decade to 1.8 percent per year number of animal heads are also
over the next decade, largely because affecting the European Union’s meat
of slower growth in Latin America, production sector, which is expected
according to FAO. Rabobank estimates to decline overall by 0.4 percent in
that Brazil, one of the world’s largest 2012 and 1 percent in 2013. Poultry
broiler-producing countries, will see meat, in contrast, remains the only
broiler production growth slow to just meat in the EU for which production is
3 percent in 2012, while Argentina’s expected to increase in 2012 and 2013.
broiler production grows at 4.5 percent The European Commission forecasts
in 2012. As Table 1 from USDA an expansion in EU poultry meat
shows, Brazil’s production forecast production by about 1 percent in 2012
was revised lower to approximately and 0.3 percent in 2013, in spite of
13.3 million metric tons of poultry new animal welfare rules. This fourth-
meat in 2012, and Argentina’s largest producing region is expected
production will increase only slightly to produce 9.6 million metric tons of
executive guide 2012 23SECTION 4
EGG PRODUCTION
China remains world’s top egg producer in 2012
More than half of world’s ! !!JXK !
total egg production from J*))=! ! !
only five countries. ! V} ! % ! J*)J
#' ' !! !
}} ! ^" J_
! @V ! !JYQ TABLE 1: EU25/EU27 EGG PRODUCTION
J*)) = !!
Gross
! @} ~ J*)J!! =[ production
= K* { !J ! x 1 million
! Year Region metric tons % change
J*)J={ ! 2004 EU-25 6.875
{ ! !QVJ 2005 EU-25 6.833 -0.6
Z ! ! J*J*!QK
2006 EU-25 6.534 -4.4
=" !! J*Q*=
# $ % ! ! 2007 EU-25 6.521 -0.2
{ ! "#! 2007 EU-27 6.957
! X*V " [ = 2008 EU-27 7.067 1.6
J*)}!YKK % ! =Z! =\ 2009 EU-27 6.896 -2.4
J*Q*= ' ! ( ! 2010 EU-27 7.049 2.2
{ ' ~ !
2011 EU-27 7.112 0.9
!' ^" )_
[ = ! ! = % 2012 EU-27 7.04 -1
FIGURE 1: GLOBAL EGG PRODUCTION PROJECTION 19972030
100
90
80
production in million metric tons
70
1997/99 2015 2030
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
World Developing Developing Sub-Saharan Latin Near East/ South Asia East Asia East Asia Industrial Transition
countries countries Africa America North Africa excluding countries countries
excluding and the China
China Caribbean
Source: FAO (http://www.fao.org/docrep/005/y4252e/y4252e07.htm#Ch5)
24 executive guide 2012FIGURE 2: CHINA ANNUAL EGG PRODUCTION TREND
19802012
30.00
tons)
production(xx11 million metric tons
25.00
20.00 Looking for real results
15.00 in breeder or broiler
production?
eggproduction
10.00
Find out what your benefits are
at www.jpe.org
Egg
5.00
0.00
2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Year
Source: USDA
Premium+® breeder nest
FIGURE 3: US EGG LONGTERM PRODUCTION
PROJECTION TO 2021
8.10
8.00 Up to 10% more hatching eggs
egg production (billion dozen)
7.90
7.80
7.70
7.60
7.50 BroMaxx colony system
7.40
7.30
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Year
Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2021 (http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/oce-usda-agricultural-projections/oce121.aspx)
Up to 2 flocks more per year
fractionally higher than 2011’s 7.66 table eggs, an increase of less than 1
billion dozen eggs produced. In 2012, percent over 2011. While feed prices
this second-largest egg producer is are expected to moderate, declines in For more information about our
expected to produce 7.68 billion dozen egg prices and cut backs in the size of products and dealer addresses:
eggs, while the most recent projection > ~
for 2013 egg production shows a slight from greater expansion. Production of Jansen Poultry Equipment
drop to about 7.5 billion dozen fueled by hatching eggs in 2012 will also remain Harselaarseweg 32
higher feed costs (Figure 3). below levels in 2011 as broiler producers 3771 MB Barneveld
The majority of eggs produced cut back on production. The Netherlands
are table eggs for consumption; in As in many countries around the Tel: +31 (0)342-427000
2013, the U.S. is expected to produce world, the majority of U.S. table eggs, 95 info@jpe.org
approximately 6.6 billion dozen percent, according to a study released by
www.jpe.org
executive guide 2012 25SECTION 4
EGG PRODUCTION
TABLE 2: INDIA EGG PRODUCTION AND PER CAPITA TABLE 3: NUMBER OF LAYER FARMS AND LAYERS IN
AVAILABILITY JAPAN
Human Number of Layer Average head
Year Egg production population Per capita Farms Number of Layers per farm
(March-Feb.) (million) (million) availability
Year farms thousand head thousand head
2001-02 38,729 1,040 37
2003 4,340 137,299 31.6
2002-03 39,823 1,056 38
2004 4,090 137,216 33.5
2003-04 40,403 1,072 38
2005 - - -
2004-05 45,201 1,089 42
2006 3,610 136,894 38
2005-06 46,235 1,106 42
2007 3,460 142,765 41.3
2006-07 50,663 1,122 45
2008 3,300 142,523 43.2
2007-08 53,583 1,138 47
2009 3,110 139,910 45
2008-09 55,562 1,154 48
2010 - - -
2009-10 60,267 1,170 51
2011 2,930 137,352 46.9
2010-11 63,024 1,186 53
2012 2,810 135,477 48.2
2011-12 (est.) 65,480
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, “Livestock Statistics”
Source: State/UT Animal Husbandry Departments
FIGURE 4: PERCENT CHANGE IN EU LAYING HEN The third-largest egg-producing
country, India, produces nearly 2.86
POPULATION BETWEEN 2012Q1 AND 2011Q1
million metric tons of eggs annually,
2,000 according to the Associated Chambers of
+10%
+1% +9% +15% Commerce and Industry of India. Table
number of laying hens (x 1,000)
- 2 shows the trend of egg production
-18% -2%
-41%
-14% in India and per capita availability of
-2,000 -24%
-7% eggs to the country’s population. Japan,
-4,000 -10%
the fourth largest producer, is thought
-34% to have seen a drop in egg production
-6,000 -15%
J*))!J*)J=
-8,000 layers and layer farms in that country
! ZJ*))=\!J=KQ*
-10,000 -20%
)QXV
-12,000 However, this number will decrease
France
Poland
Ireland
Netherlands
UK
Czech R
Hungary
Austria
Belgium
Slovakia
Lithuania
Portugal
Greece
Spain
Italy
Germany
Bulgaria
Denmark
Finland
Sweden
Slovenia
Romania
Latvia
Estonia
J*)J J=Y)*
)Q}} ^Q_
Egg production is expected to grow
in some other egg producing countries
J*)J=` $
J*)J !
consecutive increase in egg production
the United Egg Producers, are produced EU egg production falls with growth of 1.4 percent, an increase
in layer houses with conventional With a smaller laying hen population YJ ' J*))
cage systems. In contrast, January 1 as producers invest in new cage systems ` $ Z !
marked the end of a 12-year transitional and convert production out of battery ! ` $ !
period banning the use of these popular cages, egg production in the EU is !@X)) ! $
conventional cage systems in another forecast to be about 1 percent lower in J*)J =
major egg-producing region, the J*)J J*))= X*V Russia has seen its egg production increase
European Union. Figure 4 illustrates the metric tons (Table 1). The region’s J**Y= QY)
change in laying hens in the EU between largest egg producers remain France and { !V)K
J*))! Spain, followed by Italy, Germany, the J*)J= !
J*)J Netherlands and the UK. Agriculture Nikolai Fyodorov. EG
26 executive guide 2012More data available in Market Data section of WATTAgNet
Sign in or sign up as a user on www.WATTAgNet.com to download these datasets as spreadsheets.
➥Global egg production and growth projections 1997-2030–
www.wattagnet.com/154404.html
➥European Union number of laying hens by country 2000-2011 –
www.wattagnet.com/54433.html
➥Largest egg producing countries in 2010 –
www.wattagnet.com/154312.html
➥USA egg long-term projections to 2021 –
www.wattagnet.com/154320.html
➥EU egg balance sheet 2004-2012 –
www.wattagnet.com/154395.html
➥China annual egg production trend 1980-2012 –
www.wattagnet.com/154401.html
➥India egg production and per capita availability 1990-2012 –
www.wattagnet.com/154407.html
➥USA poultry forecasts 2010-2013 –
www.wattagnet.com/154327.html
Escent® Af l o r i n ® N ovi b a c ®
N ovyr a t e ® N ovi o r o ® Lu m a n c e ®
Mycotoxin Risk Assessment
Wet Litter
Natural Pigmentation
Salmonella Control
Liver Support
Intestinal Health www.innovadglobal.com
executive guide 2012 27SECTION 5
Poultry meat and egg trade in
TRADE
international markets
Population increases, rising FIGURE 1: GLOBAL TRADE OF SHELL EGGS AND EGG
costs lead to trade growth in PRODUCTS
poultry and egg products.
2,500,000
A growing population and demand
growth in the market for livestock
products, especially in developing 2,000,000
Egg products: CAGR: +6.6%
metric tons
countries, has led to rapid trade growth
in poultry and egg products. 1,500,000
Changes in the trade of egg 1,000,000
products
In the global market for eggs, shell Shell eggs: CAGR +5.5%
eggs have historically been the most 500,000
commonly traded form of eggs (Figure
1); however, the market for eggs is
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08
expected to shift over the next decade
on Rabobank projections that egg year
industry consolidation will continue egg products shell eggs
and increasing globalization will occur Source: Nan-Dirk Mulder/Rabobank
in the egg processing and egg products
industries.
TABLE 1: EU EXPORTS OF EGGS TO MAIN One country expected to see growth in its egg processing sector over
TRADING PARTNERS the coming years is India. Figure 2 shows the country’s relatively low egg
Total egg exports (except hatching) in production costs compared to the EU and some Asian countries, making
product weight (metric tons) it a potential growing exporter over the next decade. India’s dried egg
Country 2011 2010 products are already well accepted in Europe, but are only produced by a
Switzerland 36,600 39,070 few companies, so the country shows much potential for expansion in the
Angola 17,496 10,414 global export market.
%( J*)J=Q)
Japan 8,785 6,401
@K) ! $% (
United Arab Emirates 7,905 5,600
J*)J QV !VK@ ! $='! VQX
Oman 2,792 2,600 ( % J*)J
Argentina 1,695 1,678 Kong, followed by Canada, United Arab Emirates, the Bahamas and
USA 1,661 4,118 Angola. Exports to Japan, an important market for the U.S. and typically
Albania 1,303 4,118 ( ! ! =! !
J*)JJ} J)Y ' = %
Israel 1,112 991
conventional cages has increased egg production costs in that region,
Norway 878 196
J*)J~)Q! ! (
Russia 604 652 % J*)J= %~JX !
Ukraine 567 709 )J* ! % ! !
India 468 925 J*))='! J@X = QY
Croatia 380 395 U.S. total exports globally, according to the United States Department of
Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
Libya 226 201
ZJ*)Q=( ! ! % ( !
Source: European Commission
(! ' J@@ ! $ J*)Q=
28 executive guide 2012More data available in Market Data section of WATTAgNet
Sign in or sign up as a user on www.WATTAgNet.com to download these datasets as spreadsheets.
➥EU egg balance sheet 2004-2012 – www.wattagnet.com/154395.html
➥USA poultry forecasts 2010-2013 – www.wattagnet.com/154327.html
➥USA broiler export trend 2005-2011 – www.wattagnet.com/154427.html
➥EU egg imports by product 2011-2012 – www.wattagnet.com/154421.html
➥Poultry meat trade long-term projections to 2021 –
www.wattagnet.com/154324.html
➥World meat market production and trade estimates 2010-12 –
www.wattagnet.com/154424.html
➥World meat export trends 1999-2021 – www.wattagnet.com/154336.html
products by the end of 2012; most recent data available show
TABLE 2: EU EGG IMPORTS BY PRODUCT IN 2011
(February 2011-January 2012) the region’s 2011 dried whole egg import volume totaled
Volume
10,559 metric tons in eggs equivalent (Table 2).
metric tons
Egg Product egg equivalent metric tons product
Poultry meat trade driven by demand from
Asian countries
Shell eggs imports 1,686 1,686
In the international market for poultry meat, a total of
Liquid/frozen whites 956 824 7.126 million metric tons will be imported in 2012 by major
Liquid/frozen whole eggs 280 242 importing countries and that number is projected to grow
Dried whole eggs 10,559 2,336 over the next decade by 1.5 million metric tons (21 percent),
Dried egg yolk 3,220 1,309 according to the latest agricultural projections from USDA.
Major importers are expected to trade 8.634 million metric
Frozen/liquid yolk 51 44
tons of poultry meat by 2021.
Dried whites 3,025 353
Russia, historically the largest world importer of poultry
Total metric tons 19,777 6,794 meat, will see its import volume decline from an estimated
Source: International Egg Commission, “The European egg market situation,” Herman 374,000 metric tons, ready-to-cook, of poultry meat in 2012,
Versteijlen, director agricultural markets, European Commission to 254,000 metric tons in 2013, which will decline further
which is slightly higher than the forecast
for 2012. Growth in the U.S. egg export
FIGURE 2: PRODUCTION COST OF EGGS BY COUNTRY
market will be driven by strong demand
from growing Asian countries, notably 90
Hong Kong, Japan and Korea. EU-27
member states exported 111,121 metric 80
tons of eggs in 2011, 83,543 metric 70
tons of which are for consumption.
60
Switzerland was the top destination of
(EUR ct/kg)
main trading partners for EU-27 eggs, 50
as that country imported 36,600 metric 40
tons of eggs in 2011, 29,939 metric tons
of which were eggs for consumption 30
(Table 1). 20
Of the 6,788 metric tons of eggs
imported by EU-27 member states, 10
1,799 metric tons were eggs for 0
consumption. The EU region will again EU US Brazil Ukraine India
country
import the greatest amount of dried Source: Nan-Dirk Mulder/Rabobank
whole eggs compared to other egg
executive guide 2012 29SECTION 5
TRADE
FIGURE 3: 2013 POULTRY MEAT IMPORT PROJECTION
to reach eventually an estimated
Middle East
1,600 114,000 metric tons in 2021 (Figure
3). Poultry meat imports in the
Other
Middle East now account for more
1,400
than 40 percent of imports by major
poultry meat imports (thousand metric tons, rtc)
importers and is expected to increase
Saudi Arabia
1,200 to more than 50 percent by 2021. The
European Union
largest single-country importer is
Other SubSaharan Africa
1,000 now Saudi Arabia, which will import
Mexico
Japan
an estimated 880,000 metric tons of
Central America/Caribbean poultry meat in 2012 and 926,000 in
West African Community
800
2013. Japan, the world’s second largest
poultry meat importer, will import an
600
Hong Kong estimated 805,000 metric tons in 2012,
China declining to 800,000 metric tons in
North Africa
South Korea
400
Russia
2013. The third largest poultry meat
Other Europe
Canada
importer in 2012, the EU, will import
200 nearly 800,000 metric tons in 2012
but is expected to take over as the
0 second largest importer in 2013 at an
Importers estimated 808,000 metric tons. Mexico
Source: USDA Agricultural Projections to 2021 (http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/archive_projections/USDAAgriculturalProjections2021.pdf) is also becoming one of the world’s
largest importers of poultry meat. The
country’s import volume is projected
to rise from 760,000 metric tons in
2011 to 789,000 metric tons in 2012
and 804,000 metric tons in 2013.
Total exports of poultry meat in
FIGURE 4: 2013 POULTRY EXPORT PROJECTION 2012 by major traders will total an
IN MILLION METRIC TONS, RTC estimated 9.163 million metric tons,
based off USDA forecasts, and are
European Union projected to rise to 11.067 million
1,279 metric tons over the next decade to
2021.
Brazil Brazil, the world’s largest exporter,
3,620 will ship approximately 3.555 million
metric tons of poultry meat in 2012 and
3.620 million metric tons in 2013. The
U.S., a close second, is estimated to
export 3.413 million metric tons in 2012
and 3.442 million metric tons in 2013
(Figure 4). Over the coming years, the
U.S. market share may increase thanks to
trade with Saudi Arabia, Japan and Hong
United Kong, where the compound average
States growth rate is growing faster than in
3,442 Brazil, according to Adrian Westerstrate,
global co-head of Rabobank’s Animal
Protein Sector. Concurrently, though,
U.S. exports have grown slower than
Brazil’s in China, Japan and Kuwait. For
China example, U.S. exports of broiler meat
Thailand 442 have remained steady, as the country
509 exported 6.9 billion pounds of broiler
30 executive guide 2012You can also read
