Singapore Strategy Debunking lockdown myths - CGS-CIMB
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May 22, 2020
Singapore Strategy
Debunking lockdown myths
NAVIGATING SINGAPORE
■ We surveyed 860 people (mainly in Singapore and Malaysia) on new habits
during the Covid-19 lockdown; surprises: online shopping, food delivery/
takeaway did not skyrocket.
■ WFH is a preferred trend, with 48% of Singaporeans loving it, while 33%
dislike it. We see more flexible office space needs in the medium term.
■ There is pent-up demand for dining out when the economy reopens fully
(positive for retail REITS); weak travel and hotel demand for 6 more months.
Analyst(s)
LIM Siew Khee
T (65) 6210 8664
E siewkhee.lim@cgs-cimb.com
NGOH Yi Sin
T (65) 6210 8604
E yisin.ngoh@cgs-cimb.com
EING Kar Mei, CFA
T (65) 6210 8669
E karmei.eing@cgs-cimb.com
Cezzane SEE
T (65) 6210 8699
E cezzane.see@cgs-cimb.com
Singapore Research Team
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE Powered by
END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CGS-CIMB the EFA
SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. Platform
Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Testing the 21-day theory ...............................................................................................................5
Of surprises and interest ................................................................................................................5
Online shopping did not skyrocket; malls will stay relevant ...........................................................5
Food delivery and takeaways not as popular as expected ..............................................7
Divergence of trends outside of Singapore .....................................................................8
Trends that reinforce our stock calls ............................................................................................10
Embracing WFH even after circuit breaker and Covid-19 .............................................10
High usage of teleconferencing, but missing out on personal touch .............................11
Singapore supermarkets trump online grocers .............................................................14
What about Malaysia, Indonesia and Thai grocery patterns? .......................................16
Travel could take at least 6 more months to recover ....................................................19
Telemedicine remains in nascent stage ........................................................................21
Overseas education and indoor entertainment still relevant .........................................22
Foreign workers are crucial to Singapore’s economy ...................................................25
Deeper penetration in digital banking and payment services ........................................26
Read-through to sectors and stock calls ......................................................................................28
Positive read-through .....................................................................................................28
Negative read-through ...................................................................................................28
Neutral ...........................................................................................................................30
The survey ....................................................................................................................................31
The survey and respondents .........................................................................................31
Our survey questions .....................................................................................................32
2
Strategy Note Navigating Singapore │ Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Singapore
Singapore Strategy
Highlighted Companies
Debunking lockdown myths
Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) ■ We surveyed 860 people on new habits during the Covid-19 lockdown;
ADD, TP S$2.49, S$2.24 close surprises: online shopping, food delivery/takeaway did not skyrocket.
As a suburban mall-focused landlord that ■ WFH is a preferred trend, with 48% of Singaporeans loving it, while 33%
relies less on tourist shoppers, FCT dislike it. We see more flexible office space needs in the medium term.
would see the fastest recovery from ■ There is pent-up demand for dining out when the economy reopens fully
Covid-19 among the retail REITs. (positive for retail REITS); weak travel and hotel demand for 6 more months.
SATS Ltd
REDUCE, TP S$2.56, S$2.87 close Can new habits form post-Covid-19?
As a ground-handling and in-flight We sought to test the “21-day habit” theory as we gathered responses from 860 people,
catering company, SATS faces structural mainly from Singapore/Malaysia and some from Indonesia/Thailand. The questions
headwinds as traveling patterns are encapsulated work-from-home (WFH) experiences, shopping habits, travel demand and
going through unprecedented headwinds.
social aspects. The results debunked a few myths.
Visibility of a return to pre-virus days is
murky, with no certainty of timeline and
extent of the restoration of flight capacity.
Myth 1: People shopped online more in Singapore. Debunked
The fact is only 55% of Singapore-based respondents did more online shopping during
Sheng Siong Group the lockdown, even though 72% of the survey demographics was between 26 and 45
ADD, TP S$1.65, S$1.55 close years old. Despite the fear of Covid-19 and closure of non-essential services, with people
We see the supermarket company as a confined at home, the online shopping trend did not accelerate, to our surprise. Online
prime beneficiary of the Covid-19 shopping made up only 8.5% of total retail sales in Singapore as of Mar 2020.
lockdown as its revenue is Singapore-
centric and foresee continued elevated Myth 2: People ordered more takeaway/food delivery. Debunked
same-store-sales due to ongoing work-
The fact is only 53% of Singaporeans ordered food delivery or takeout >2x a week. With
from-home (WFH) activities. Our TP of
S$1.65 is based on 25x CY21F EPS no dine-in option, Singaporeans could have resorted to cooking more at home. There is
also a pent-up demand for dining at restaurants as 48% of Singaporean respondents said
they will dine out more often after the lockdown, to ‘experience’ and socialise.
Insert Where lockdown habits diverge
Among Malaysian respondents, only 54% shopped more online during lockdown.
However, Indonesians (77%) and Thais (87%) increased their online shopping frequency;
we gather that the ecommerce adoption rates could be higher in these two countries as a
larger percentage (c.26%/23%) shopped for groceries online (vs. 13% in Singapore and
8% in Malaysia). We also saw that more Indonesians (66%) ordered food delivery/takeout
>2x a week, possibly due to logistical challenges in accessing supermarkets. Malaysians
and Thais seem to be more fearful of Covid-19 as c.50% them said they would not dine
out more post lockdown mainly due to safety/hygiene.
Trends we expected
Analyst(s) More than 70% of respondents across the countries would only resume overseas travel
3-6 months post-lockdown — negative for overall hotel REITS, aviation and medical
tourism. 52% of Singaporeans want to keep the WFH option — neutral near-term
impact on office REITs, but possibly negative in the long run. We found little
switching (11%) from offline to online grocery shopping (not surprising given the proximity
of stores to homes in Singapore), underpinning our bullish view on supermarkets.
LIM Siew Khee
T (65) 6210 8664 Figure 1: What surprised us and its potential implication
E siewkhee.lim@cgs-cimb.com
Surprises Implication
NGOH Yi Sin
T (65) 6210 8604 55% of respondents in Singapore increased Online shopping did not skyrocket; Malls will stay
E yisin.ngoh@cgs-cimb.com online shopping frequency during circuit breaker relevant
EING Kar Mei, CFA Little evidence that the adoption of food delivery and
53% of the respondents in Singapore ordered
T (65) 6210 8669 takeaways in Singapore accelerated during circuit
food delivery or takeaways (dabao) at least
E karmei.eing@cgs-cimb.com twice a week during the circuit breaker
breaker; More home-cooking and demand for fresh
groceries; F&B restaurants will stay relevant.
Cezzane SEE
T (65) 6210 8699 48% of Singapore respondents said that they
E cezzane.see@cgs-cimb.com will dine out more often once the circuit breaker Pent-up demand for F&B
is lifted (if restaurants are open)
Singapore Research Team SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. IF THIS REPORT IS DISTRIBUTED IN Powered by the
THE UNITED STATES IT IS DISTRIBUTED BY CGS-CIMB SECURITIES (USA), INC. AND IS CONSIDERED THIRD-PARTY AFFILIATED RESEARCH. EFACustomEntityStatement| EFA PlatformNavigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
KEY CHARTS
Only half the nation contributed more to its
Maintained or
Internet economy reduced online
Only 55% of our 502 Singapore-based respondents shopping
increased their frequency of online shopping, even though
No, 44.6%
72% of the survey demographics are made up of those
between 26 and 45 years old. The remaining 45%
maintained or reduced their online shopping frequency. Yes, 55.4%
Shopped
more online
Food/groceries and electronic gadgets are Food/groceries and electronic gadgets are favourite
deemed circuit breaker essentials online shopping categories
During the circuit breaker period, most consumers (319) in
Singapore bought food and groceries online, followed by Food & Household Electronic Clothes &
Health
Books
Age group & Fitness Others Total
electronic gadgets (161), which are deemed essential for groceries / furniture gadgets accessories
Beauty
& toys
staying at home and WFH. 20 – 25 years old 10 7 5 9 9 5 2 4 51
26 – 35 years old 118 57 65 44 42 37 22 21 406
36 – 45 years old 122 60 70 47 55 25 36 21 436
46 – 55 years old 49 16 17 9 18 6 4 16 135
56 and above 20 4 4 3 4 4 1 17 57
319 144 161 112 128 77 65 79 1085
48% looking forward to dine out (when No – Deliveries are so
convenient
1.2%
allowed) 6.0% 5.6%
No – I’m worried about the
48% of Singapore respondents indicated their willingness safety and hygiene 7.0%
to dine out more often once the circuit breaker is lifted as
No – now is not the time to
they want to socialise, enjoy the dining experience and spend on dining out 23.1%
support local businesses without delivery options.
Same as before
Currently, this will only be allowed in phase 2 of safe
transitioning, which could take place 4 to 6 weeks after 1
Yes – I love the dining
Jun. Only 13.8% said they will reduce the frequency of experience
38.0%
dining out. 19.1%
Yes – I miss socializing!
Yes – to support local
businesses which do not
have delivery option
48% are loving their WFH experience It’s awesome, but I prefer
76% of our 502 respondents in Singapore started working working in office.
21%
from home since 7 Apr. Of those who WFH, 48% had a
positive experience. Post-circuit breaker and Covid-19, It’s awesome, and I will 18%
want to WFH more next
51% would still like to keep the WFH option. time.
11%
It’s okay, I’m ambivalent
Hmm… I don’t really like
it. I prefer working in 20% 30%
office.
Hmm… I don’t really like
it. But I still like the option
of WFH.
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS
4Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Debunking lockdown myths
Testing the 21-day theory
The implementation of the circuit breaker/lockdown has confined many people to
their homes, causing them to turn to technology networks, flexible working
arrangements and remote access. These could potentially be disruptive to many
industries, including offices, malls/retailers, hotels, travel/aviation and F&B
establishments.
We sought to test the theory that “new habits are formed by completing a task
(in our context, practising a new way of living) for 21 days”, and introduced our
survey from the week of 27 Apr — 21 days after Singapore implemented its
circuit breaker. Our survey reached out to a group of 860 people, based in
Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. More than 50% of our
respondents were based in Singapore and 23% in Malaysia. In this report, we
focus more on Singapore respondents, with some observations made on
other countries.
The 25 questions focused on issues that are of relevance to our stock
coverage — WFH experience, consumption patterns, shifts from offline to online
channels and foreign worker (FW) issues. Can we return to pre-Covid-19 life or
successfully welcome new norms? In this report, we list out the key findings from
our survey and how it could impact the stocks under our coverage. Some
observations were aligned with our expectations, while others surprised
us/offered new perspectives.
Of surprises and interest
Figure 2: Summary of surprises and implication on Singapore sectors/stock
Surprises Implication Impact on sector/stock
55% of respondents in Singapore increased Online shopping did not skyrocket; Malls will stay
Positive for retail REITs
online shopping frequency during circuit breaker relevant
53% of the respondents in Singapore ordered little evidence that the adoption of food delivery and
food delivery or takeaways (dabao) at least takeaways in Singapore accelerated during circuit Positive for retail REITs as F&B restaurants
twice a week during the circuit breaker breaker, F&B restaurants will stay relevant. usually contributes 30-40% of the REITs'
48% of Singapore respondents said that they gross rental income, Koufu Group and
will dine out more often once the circuit breaker Pent-up demand for F&B Jumbo Group.
is lifted (if restaurants are open)
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Online shopping did not skyrocket; malls will stay relevant
No significant acceleration in online shopping in Singapore. Despite the
Only 55% of respondents in fear of Covid-19, the closure of non-essential services, and people staying at
Singapore said that they increased
their frequency of online shopping. home, only 55% of respondents in Singapore did more online shopping during
This is despite the fact that ~72% of the circuit breaker than before — which was lower than expected, given that
our respondent profile in Singapore is ecommerce was the only viable channel to purchase goods with the closure of
aged between 26 and 45, which is physical non-essential stores. The remaining 45% maintained or reduced their
supposedly the more ecommerce- online shopping.
savvy age group.
This indicates that the circuit breaker in Singapore is not likely to accelerate the
adoption of online shopping, at least among Singaporeans, contrary to popular
belief. Although online sales penetration in the country has been creeping up, it
still remains low at 8.5% of total retail sales (as at Mar 2020) despite Covid-19.
This gives brick-and-mortar shopping malls some time to embrace technology in
order to stay relevant in the ecommerce era.
5Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Figure 3: Did you do more online shopping during this lockdown Figure 4: Singapore’s online shopping penetration
period? (Singapore)
9
Title:
Source:
8
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
7
No, 44.6%
6
Yes, 55.4% 5
4
3
*Red bars indicate sales were boosted by ecommerce sales (Lazada, Shopee)
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, SINGSTATS
Favourite online shopping categories. 64% of the Singapore respondents
bought food and groceries online. This was followed by electronic gadgets (32%)
Most of the items bought online are and household items/furniture (29%); we believe this was driven by the need to
circuit breaker essentials.
set up “office” at home. Only 22% of the respondents purchased clothes and
accessories online. This is in line with SingPost's (SPOST) observation on the
shift in consumption from discretionary to essential purchases over the same
period. Some of the interesting goods purchased online include “Covid-19 care
packages”, pet supplies, games and crafting materials for children.
Robust logistics is key to ecommerce growth. We think one of the reasons
for the slower-than-expected growth in online shopping during the circuit breaker
is the logistics and supply chain issues faced by businesses. The travel
restrictions and various country lockdowns have caused a drop in international
air capacity, longer delivery times and manpower crunch, which could have
resulted in consumers sourcing locally and turning to physical stores that
remained open.
Despite the majority of items shopped online being bulky and of perishable
nature (food/groceries, electronics and household items/furniture), as a logistics
enabler, SPOST would be able to deliver items from other categories (e.g.
clothes/accessories, health/beauty and books) via their postal network. The
group should continue to benefit from the growth in domestic ecommerce as it is
a key logistics provider for some of the ecommerce platforms, such as Shopee,
although ecommerce delivery is still a small part of its revenue base.
Figure 5: Food/groceries and electronic gadgets are favourite online shopping
categories
Health
Food & Household Electronic Clothes & Books
Age group & Fitness Others Total
groceries / furniture gadgets accessories & toys
Beauty
20 – 25 years old 10 7 5 9 9 5 2 4 51
26 – 35 years old 118 57 65 44 42 37 22 21 406
36 – 45 years old 122 60 70 47 55 25 36 21 436
46 – 55 years old 49 16 17 9 18 6 4 16 135
56 and above 20 4 4 3 4 4 1 17 57
319 144 161 112 128 77 65 79 1085
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
6Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Food delivery and takeaways not as popular as expected
To our surprise, only about half of the Singapore respondents ordered
food delivery or takeaways at least 2 times a week (Fig. 6). With the option of
dining in restaurants taken off the table, we believe Singaporeans have resorted
to cooking more at home. Those in the age groups of 26-35 and 36-45 years old
reported a higher frequency of ordering food delivery or takeaways, possibly due
to 1) being more savvy with choices, 2) having higher disposable income, and/or
3) being more occupied with work or childcare. We think this lower-than-
expected food delivery/takeout trend implies that home-cooking may continue to
be strong in the near future, especially as restaurant dine-ins will only be
available in the second phase of Singapore’s reopening. In 1Q20, Sheng Siong
(SSG SP) reported a spike in same-store-sales (+19.7% yoy) with GP margins
trending at 27% on grocery bulk buying.
Looking forward to dine out. F&B dine-in services will be allowed in phase 2 of
48% of Singapore respondents said
that they will dine out more often Singapore’s economy reopening plan. 48% of Singapore respondents said that
once the circuit breaker is lifted (if they would dine out more often compared with before the circuit breaker (vs.
restaurants are open), vs. 13% who only 13.8% that said they will reduce the frequency of dining out) as they want to
will reduce the frequency of dining socialise (particularly for those within the age range of 20 to 25), enjoy the dining
out. Only 1.2% of those surveyed experience and support local businesses that do not offer delivery options. 38%
think that dining out would be of respondents indicated that they would unlikely change the frequency of their
replaced by food delivery given the
convenience. dining-out habits, while only 1.2% of those surveyed think that food delivery
would replace dining out, given the convenience (Fig. 7).
Among those who are already doing food delivery or takeaway more than two
Among those who are already doing times a week currently, more than half of them may dine out more post-
food delivery or takeaway >2x a week
lockdown, implying that there is a pent-up demand for F&B and dining out. This
currently, >50% may dine out more
after the lockdown. pent-up demand can be witnessed from the long queues at McDonalds’ when it
reopened its doors recently after a three-week closure. Long queues were also
witnessed at bubble tea stores before they were shut temporarily due to the
circuit breaker.
Our survey shows little evidence that the circuit breaker will accelerate the
adoption of food delivery and takeaways in Singapore, and this indicates that
F&B restaurants would remain relevant. F&B stocks that could benefit from the
pent-up demand include Koufu Group (unrated) and, to a smaller extent,
Jumbo Group (as a significant portion of its sales is derived from tourists and
business meals). Retail malls are potential indirect beneficiaries as F&B space
accounts for a large portion of the retail REITs’ malls’ space (30-40% of gross
rental income). While margins are lower, F&B space in malls has been
increasing gradually as it helps to attract traffic.
7Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Figure 6: 53% of respondents ordered food delivery or Figure 7: Will you dine out more after the circuit breaker is
takeaways (dabao) at least twice a week during the circuit lifted? — 48.2% said yes!
breaker
No – Deliveries are so Title: 1.2%
None/less than convenient
146 Source: 6.0%
once a week 5.6%
No – I’m worried about the
safety and hygiene 7.0%
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
No – now is not the time to
Once a week 91 spend on dining out 23.1%
#VALUE!
Same as before
2-3 times a
143 Yes – I love the dining
week 38.0%
experience
19.1%
Yes – I miss socializing!
More than three
120
times a week
Yes – to support local
businesses which do not
0 50 100 150 200
have delivery option
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Divergence of trends outside of Singapore
Higher ecommerce adoption in Indonesia and Thailand. Like Singapore,
Malaysian respondents showed no significant acceleration in online shopping —
only 54% shopped more online during lockdown. However, Indonesians (77%)
and Thais (87%) increased their online shopping frequency. This coincides with
66% of Indonesian and 58% of Thais respondents ordering food delivery/takeout
> 2x a week respectively, possibly due to logistics/distance in our view.
Figure 8: % of respondents that increased online shopping frequency during lockdown
Indonesia - 77% Malaysia - 54% Thailand - 87%
No, 6,
13%
No,
19, Yes,
23% 107,
Yes, No, Yes,
63, 54%
93, 40,
77% 87%
46%
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
8Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Figure 9: % of respondents ordered food delivery or takeaways at least twice a week during the lockdowns
Indonesia - 66% Malaysia- 38% Thailand - 58%
More than three 11, 13% 29, 14%
17, 21% 8, 17%
times a week
13, 28%
2-3 times a week 70, 35%
17, 21%
48, 24%
Once a week 12, 25%
None/less than once 37, 45%
a week 14, 30%
55, 27%
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Malaysians and Thais are not so eager to dine out. We saw similar pent-up
appetite for F&B dining experience in Indonesia, with 48% of respondents
wanting to dine out more post-lockdown. Interestingly, close to half (50%/49%)
of Malaysian and Thai respondents would not dine out more, citing
hygiene/safety, belt-tightening and food delivery convenience as reasons.
Figure 10: Will you dine out more after the circuit breaker is lifted?
Indonesia – 24% no, 48% yes Malaysia – 50% no, 27% yes Thailand – 49% no, 40% yes
No – Deliveries are so
convenient 0, 0% 1, 1%
2, 4%
4, 5% 17, 8% 3, 6%
No – I’m worried about
the safety and hygiene 18, 9%
8, 17%
No – now is not the time 13, 16%
to spend on dining out 25, 30% 20, 10%
Same as before 64, 31%
7, 9% 8, 17% 16, 34%
Yes – I love the dining 47, 23%
experience 10, 12%
Yes – I miss socializing! 5, 11%
23, 28%
37, 18%
5, 11%
Yes – to support local
businesses which do not
have delivery option
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
9Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Trends that reinforce our stock calls
Embracing WFH even after circuit breaker and Covid-19
Mixed WFH experiences so far. Since Singapore entered the circuit breaker on
7 Apr 20, 76.1% of our respondents had started working from home, while the
rest were unemployed, facing temporary suspension of work or were still
reporting to workplaces. Main factors that have contributed to their WFH
experience included traveling time, family bonding opportunity and distractions
at home.
32.5% had negative WFH experience
47.9% liked their WFH experience, and
19.4% were neutral.
WFH flexibility preference. Despite the varied experiences, 52% of
30% of the respondents said “It’s
respondents would still like to keep the WFH option post-circuit breaker and
awesome and I will want to WFH
more next time” Covid-19, as compared with 30% who prefer to return to office (the remainder is
52% want to have their cake and eat neutral). Such preference is evident across all age groups, except for those
it too! aged 56 and above who prefer working in office. Similar preference is also seen
in Malaysia (48%) and Thailand (52%).
A separate quick check within the Singapore research team of preference to
WFH or WFO (work from office) in Phase 1 (June 2) of the economy reopening
revealed that 100% chose WFH. We believe this number could reduce slightly in
Phase 2 (a few weeks after June 2) as more activities resume (F&B dine-in
services, retail outlets, gym and fitness studios etc.).
Figure 11: 52% of respondents in Singapore like the WFH option Figure 12: Key considerations for WFH (based on 502 people).
# of responses
Title:
It’s awesome, but I prefer 300
269 Source:
working in office.
21% 250
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
It’s awesome, and I will 18% 200
173 178
want to WFH more next
time.
150 125
11%
It’s okay, I’m ambivalent 105 104
100 88 86
50
Hmm… I don’t really like
it. I prefer working in 20% 30% 0
office.
Hmm… I don’t really like
it. But I still like the option
of WFH.
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS
10Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Figure 13: % of respondents who like the WFH option in ASEAN
Indonesia - 39% Malaysia - 48% Thailand - 52%
Hmm… I don’t really
like it. But I still like the
option of WFH.
4, 16% 3, 12%
11, 17% 21, 16% 1, 4%
Hmm… I don’t really 14, 22%
like it. I prefer working 38, 30%
in office. 8, 6%
It’s awesome, and I 10, 16%
will want to WFH more
next time. 7, 28%
15, 23%
20, 16% 41, 32% 10, 40%
It’s awesome, but I
prefer working in 14, 22%
office.
It’s okay, I’m
ambivalent
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
High usage of teleconferencing, but missing out on personal
touch
Although more Singapore respondents would like to have the WFH option in the
58% of 499 responses feel that face-
future, the majority (58% of 499 responses) feels that face-to-face meetings
to-face meetings cannot be replaced
by virtual meetings. cannot be replaced by virtual meetings, citing the lack of personal touch as the
primary reason (vs. more convenience for those who chose virtual meetings).
This is despite the relatively high level of penetration of teleconferencing at 87%
(or 439 respondents) during the circuit breaker, with 63% of them having used
teleconferencing more than twice a week. The preference for face-to-face
meetings vs. virtual was generally across the board (50-60% of most age
groups), with a whopping 81% of those in the 56 years and above age group
favouring face-to-face meetings.
Of those working from home in Singapore, 354 (93% of 382 respondents) have
47% (166) of those working from
home in Singapore and have used
used some form of video-conferencing apps (e.g. Zoom, Microsoft Teams,
video-conferencing apps are likely to Google Hangout) either occasionally, more than twice a week or on a daily basis.
continue with their virtual meetings; 166 of those who used video-conferencing apps (47%) are likely to continue with
the remaining 53% prefers face-to- their virtual meetings, but the remaining 53% prefers face-to-face meetings. Of
face meetings. the 62 respondents who did not use any videoconferencing apps during the
lockdown, 39 prefer face-to-face meetings.
Notwithstanding the preference for face-to-face meetings, we believe that post-
Covid-19 demand for data and connectivity will be higher (vs. pre-Covid-19), led
by more people working from home and higher usage of teleconferencing. A
stable 5G network and fibre broadband are also essential to support the growth
of other online initiatives, such as telemedicine, digital banking and smart nation.
For instance, the WFH experience for some would have been disrupted by M1’s
fibre broadband breakdown for more than 10 hours on 12 May; Starhub had a
similar incident of intermittent outage a month earlier on 15 Apr. On 20 May,
Singtel also reported that some of its customers were unable to access their
fibre broadband and digital home line services due to a damaged Netlink Trust
fibre cable. In the long run, the best proxy for higher data usage and improved
connectivity would be Keppel DC REIT (KDC REIT).
On a regional basis, Thailand and Indonesia displayed a similar trend as
Thailand and Indonesia displayed a Singapore in terms of more people leaning towards face-to-face meetings.
similar trend as Singapore in terms of
more people leaning towards face-to- Malaysia bucked the trend with more respondents indicating a preference for
face meetings. Malaysia prefer virtual virtual meetings due to its convenience; this also coincided with our other finding
meetings due to convenience. that Malaysians could be more cautious of Covid-19.
11Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Figure 14: 88% of Singapore respondents have used a Figure 15: 42% of Singapore respondents would rather have
videoconferencing app at least once during the circuit breaker teleconferences (virtual meetings) over face-to-face meetings
Title:
62, 12% Source:
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
188, 37% 190, 38%
186, 37%
123, 25% 211, 42%
25,
5%
78, 16%
132, 26% 20, 4%
No, concerned about cyber security issues
No, less efficient
Daily More than twice a week No, less personal touch
Yes, more convenient
Occasionally I don’t use videoconferencing Yes, more cost-friendly
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Figure 16: Would you prefer virtual meetings over face to face?
58% of Singaporeans said No as they prefer FACE to FACE meetings
No, concerned No, less
No, less Yes, more Yes, more
Age group about cyber personal Total
efficient convenient cost-friendly
security issues touch
20-25 years old 2 3 7 8 1 21
26-35 years old 6 36 67 60 6 175
36-45 years old 6 24 67 76 12 185
46-55 years old 3 9 23 35 5 75
56 and above 3 6 26 7 1 43
20 78 190 186 25 499
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Figure 17: Would you prefer virtual meetings over face to face?
53% of Malaysians said Yes to VIRTUAL meetings
No, concerned No, less
No, less Yes, more Yes, more
Age group about cyber personal Total
efficient convenient cost-friendly
security issues touch
20-25 years old 1 4 3 10 1 19
26-35 years old 2 13 7 26 4 52
36-45 years old 4 9 22 30 1 66
46-55 years old 3 5 15 24 2 49
56 and above 1 3 4 5 4 17
11 34 51 95 12 203
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Figure 18: Would you prefer virtual meetings over face to face?
70% of Indonesians said No as they prefer FACE to FACE meetings
No, concerned No, less
No, less Yes, more Yes, more
Age group about cyber personal Total
efficient convenient cost-friendly
security issues touch
20-25 years old 1 4 8 1 0 14
26-35 years old 0 4 9 11 1 25
36-45 years old 3 2 13 6 3 27
46-55 years old 2 2 7 2 1 14
56 and above 1 0 0 0 0 1
7 12 37 20 5 81
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
12Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Figure 19: Would you prefer virtual meetings over face to face?
49% of Thais said No as they prefer FACE to FACE meetings
No, concerned No, less
No, less Yes, more Yes, more
Age group about cyber personal Total
efficient convenient cost-friendly
security issues touch
20-25 years old 0 1 0 1 0 2
26-35 years old 1 8 5 6 4 24
36-45 years old 0 1 2 9 0 12
46-55 years old 1 0 3 2 1 7
56 and above 1 0 0 1 0 2
3 10 10 19 5 47
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Overall demand for office REITs expected to be stable. We think that the
More demand for flexible office space ease of embracing WFH due to advances of technology allowing people to work
in the long run. anywhere at any time will result in increasing demand for greater flexibility
among both employees and employers post-Covid-19. That said, distractions at
home, the need for social interaction and a preference for face-to-face meetings
(vs. teleconferencing) would mean a proportion of employees would still prefer
an office working environment. This may mean that the overall demand for office
space is likely to remain fairly stable, although the core/flex split may shift
towards more flex space in the longer run. As such, landlords would need to
offer ‘offices of the future’ options to tenants, comprising a mix and match of
long-term office space (core) with flexible office space (flex). Historically, the
appetite for office space tends to be closely correlated to GDP growth, as well as
Singapore’s attractiveness as a cost-competitive regional HQ. Proxies to office
space are major office landlords such as CapitaLand Commercial Trust (CCT)
and Keppel REIT (KREIT).
13Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Singapore supermarkets trump online grocers
Although 71% of our survey demographics comprise the younger generation
The younger generation (26-45 years aged 26-45, 73% of respondents have chosen to purchase groceries from brick-
old) still prefers brick-and-mortar and-mortar supermarkets during the lockdown period.
supermarkets.
Our survey results also show that there was little switching from offline to online
(10.6%) and from online to offline (2.8%) for grocery shopping in Singapore.
We attribute the popularity of supermarkets to their heartland locations and the
majority of the population staying in housing development board (HDB) flats
(c.81% as of end-2018 according to data.gov.sg). This explains the top
consideration of convenience/logistics with regards to grocery shopping; pricing
and customer service were ranked last, indicating that Singapore shoppers are
not overly price sensitive.
Logistical problems and manpower constraints faced by online retailers due to a
Convenience/logistics was the key
priority when doing grocery shopping; surge in orders could also be part of the reason why shoppers prefer brick-and-
pricing and customer service were mortar, based on channel checks and our personal shopping experiences. All
the least important considerations. these could continue to underpin the relevance of physical stores and malls,
where supermarkets often form one of the anchor tenants. Proxies for
supermarkets in Singapore are Dairy Farm and Sheng Siong Group, which
could see elevated same-store-sales and margin expansion from a higher sales
proportion of house-brands and fresh food in the near-term.
Figure 20: 73% of Singapore-based respondents patronise Figure 21: Convenience/logistics was listed as the key
supermarkets more vs. other purchasing channels during the consideration for most people when choosing the purchasing
circuit breaker channel for groceries
45% 42.2%
Title:
45, 9% 40% Source:
35%
64, 13% Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
30%
25%
26, 5%
19.6%
20%
15.8%
15% 12.3%
366, 73%
9.9%
10%
5%
0.2%
0%
Brick-and-mortar supermarkets Convenient outlets/minimarts
Online Wet markets
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
One-third of Singapore-based respondents shopped more often for
36% of Singapore-based groceries. The overall basket size was largely unchanged. 36% of Singapore-
respondents shopped for groceries based respondents (182 people) shopped more often (across all age groups
more frequently. except for those aged 56 and above). This is heeding the government’s call for
the elderly to stay at home.
27% of the above group (133 people) reported similar basket sizes as
before the circuit breaker,
6% (32 people) shopped in bigger bulk,
3% (17 people) in smaller batches.
14Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
21% (107) of respondents shopped less frequently than before the circuit
breaker. There was no uptick in basket size for most people (64%, 69). Within
this group, 44 were working from home and only 5 did online grocery shopping.
43% (213) of respondents did not change in their frequency for grocery
shopping, with a subset of 49% (104) reporting unchanged basket sizes as well.
Our survey results also show that there was low switching from offline to online
format during the circuit breaker period among Singapore respondents (c.11%).
Figure 22: Frequency change in grocery shopping during the Figure 23: Basket sizes were largely unchanged during the
circuit breaker circuit breaker
Title:
Source:
32, 6%
17, 3% Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
213, 43%
Bigger bulk,
182, 36% Unchanged, 134, 27%
133, 27% 306, 61%
Smaller
107, 21% batches, 62,
12%
Less often Unchanged
More often - in bigger bulk More often - in smaller batches
More often - unchanged basket size
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Figure 24: 86% of Singapore respondents made no change in their grocery shopping
format during the circuit breaker
342, 68%
53, 11% 435, 86%
93, 18%
14, 3%
Online to offline Offline to online
No change in format BUT different frequency No change in fomat AND frequency
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
15Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
What about Malaysia, Indonesia and Thai grocery patterns?
The preference of buying groceries from brick-and-mortar supermarkets during
65% of Malaysia respondents
patronised supermarkets more vs. the lockdown period is common in Malaysia. However, the pattern varied in
other purchasing channels; less so Indonesia and Thailand.
for Thais and Indonesians.
Lower portion of Thai and Indonesia respondents patronised
supermarkets during the lockdown period. Where 65% of our Malaysian
respondents chose to purchase groceries from brick-and-mortar supermarkets
during the lockdown period — close to Singapore’s 73% — only 47% (each) of
the respondents in Indonesia and Thailand stated that they patronised
supermarkets during the movement control period.
Figure 25: 65% of Malaysia-based Figure 26: 47% of Indonesia-based Figure 27: 47% of Thai-based respondents
respondents patronised supermarkets respondents patronised supermarkets; patronised supermarkets; 23% used
more vs. other purchasing channels 26% used online channels online channels
Title: Title:
Wet Wet Source: Wet Source:
markets markets markets
12% 12% 13%
Please fill in the values above to have them entered inPlease fill in the values above to
your report
Online
8%
Brick-and- Brick-and-
Online mortar Online mortar
Convenient Brick-and- supermarkets 23% supermarkets
26%
outlets/minimarts mortar 47% 47%
#VALUE!
15% supermarkets
65%
Convenient Convenient
outlets/minimarts outlets/minimarts
15% 17%
The responses were based lockdown period. The responses were based lockdown period. The responses were based lockdown period.
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
More Indonesia and Thailand respondents shopped for groceries online.
Online/mobile shopping is more 26% of our Indonesia respondents and 23% of our Thailand respondents cited
popular for Indonesia and Thailand
respondents, likely due to the myriad online grocery shopping as their choice currently. This was higher than the
of available online/mobile options. proportion observed in Malaysia and Singapore where only 8% and 13% of
respondents, respectively, marked the online format as their current choice for
grocery shopping.
Additionally, our survey showed that c.26% of Indonesia and c.15% of Thailand
respondents switched from the offline to online format during the movement
control period, vs. their Singapore (c.11% of its respondents) and Malaysia
(c.13% of its respondents) counterparts
We think this could be due to the myriad of available online/mobile options in
Thailand and Indonesia. We understand from our Indonesia analyst that during
the movement control period, existing grocery retailers in Indonesia are driving
their own online initiatives. E.g. Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk PT’s (MAPI IJ) Food Hall
supermarket has partnered with Happy Fresh (an Indonesian independent online
grocery delivery platform); while Ranch Market (PT Supra Boga Lestari Tbk)
accepts delivery orders via WhatsApp. Interestingly we note that the large
convenient store players in Indonesia — Alfamart and Indomaret — also have
their own online sites. According to our Thai analyst, Thai grocers had already
set up online facilities in the past to accommodate changing consumer habits,
which increasingly value convenience. In our view, this movement control could
have helped to push Thai consumers to the readily available online channel.
16Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Figure 28: A higher proportion of Indonesia and Thailand Figure 29: Indonesia respondents ranked 1st in offline-to-online
respondents did their grocery shopping online vs. respondents switching during the current movement control season
in Singapore and Malaysia
30.0% 30.0% Title:
25.9% Source:
25.6%
25.0% 23.4% 25.0%
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
20.0% 20.0%
14.9%
15.0% 15.0% 13.2%
12.8%
10.6%
10.0% 10.0%
7.8%
5.0% 5.0%
0.0% 0.0%
Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Convenience stores/mini-markets feature more prominently in Malaysia,
Indonesia and Thailand. In our survey, we observed that convenience
stores/mini-markets are a more popular choice for grocery shopping in Malaysia,
Indonesia and Thailand (c.15-17% of respondents in each country), vs. in
Singapore (c.5%). We believe that this could be due to the flourishing number of
convenience stores and mini-markets in Indonesia and Thailand on the back of
changing consumer habits which value convenience (likely due to congestion in
these cities). Wet markets featured on the lower end of the spectrum for
Indonesia and Thailand, while they featured as the 3rd most selected option for
Singapore (9%) and Malaysia (c.12%) respondents.
Convenience stores/mini-markets We think that the trends above reiterate our previous thesis that Singapore
and online/mobile options made supermarkets are least expected to be disrupted by the online platforms in the
grocery shopping in supermarkets near term. Furthermore, the lower popularity of convenience stores/mini-marts in
less popular with Malaysia, Indonesia
and Thailand respondents. Singapore puts less competitive pressure on Singapore supermarkets, in our
view.
Figure 30: A higher proportion of Malaysia, Indonesia and Figure 31: Wet markets are picked by a lower proportion of
Thailand respondents did their grocery shopping at respondents in Singapore vs. Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand
convenience stores/mini-markets vs. Singapore
18.0% 17.0% 14.0%
12.8%
12.3% 12.3%
16.0% 15.2% 14.8% 12.0%
14.0%
10.0%
12.0% 9.0%
10.0% 8.0% 23
8.0% 6.0%
6.0% 5.2%
4.0%
4.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0% 0.0%
Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS
17Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Fear of Covid-19 and a lower online adoption in Malaysia likely caused
Majority of respondents cited largely some incidences of bulk buying; otherwise habits stayed unchanged. We
unchanged frequencies and basket observed that while 33% and 38% of Indonesia and Thai-based respondents
sizes in the movement control period. (27/18 people) shopped more often during the movement control period, their
basket sizes seemed unchanged. In Malaysia, however, 41% of respondents (85)
But Malaysia-based respondents did
exhibit more cases of bulk buying mentioned that they shopped in bigger bulk. We think this could likely be due to
during this period. the stricter movement control restrictions in Malaysia, fear of contracting Covid-
19, and lower online adoption, in our view.
Figure 32: A higher proportion of Singapore, Indonesia and Figure 33: Malaysia respondents showed more bulk buying than
Thailand respondents shopped for groceries more often than before vs. their counterparts in the other three countries; but a
before vs. Malaysia respondents majority of survey respondents saw basket sizes unchanged
60% 80% Title: 73%
70%
Source:
49%
50% 46% 61%
43% 59%
60% Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
40% 38% 51%
36% 36% 50%
33%
30% 41%
30% 26% 40%
24% #VALUE!
21% 30% 27% 26%
20% 18%
21%
20% 15%
12%
10% 8%
10% 6%
0% 0%
More often Less often Unchanged Bigger bulk Smaller batches Unchanged
Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand Singapore Malaysia Indonesia Thailand
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
18Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Travel could take at least 6 more months to recover
Respondents below 36 years of age long to travel. We are not surprised by
the findings that more than 78% of the Singapore respondents would wait for
only 3 to 6 months post-lockdown to start traveling again. 40% of respondents
aged 56 and above would wait for at least a year before going overseas, which
was within expectations given that older people are more vulnerable to the virus.
The minority (5%) — younger respondents below age 36 — would rush to travel
immediately.
Figure 34: Once the lockdown is over, how long will you wait before you travel
overseas? (Singapore)
40% of the older generation (56 years I will rush to travel I will wait at I will wait at I will wait at Total
Age group
immediately least 3 months least 6 months least for a year
and above) would wait for at least a
20-25 years old 2 9 8 2 21
year before travelling overseas.
26-35 years old 24 74 65 12 175
36-45 years old 10 86 70 19 185
46-55 years old 5 31 27 13 76
56 and above 3 7 17 18 45
44 207 187 64 502
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Little demand for staycations. As Singapore hotels’ RevPAR is likely to remain
suppressed, the hospitality industry is hoping that staycations and demand from
stay-home notice (SHN) returnees and Malaysian workers would give a slight
boost to the low occupancy rate in 2Q2020. However the survey showed little
desire for local staycations. Even though 91% of the respondents would wait for
3 months to a year before travelling overseas after the circuit breaker is lifted,
71% of them would rather wait for the ‘green light’ to go overseas than to do
local staycations.
50% of those who are planning for Unfortunately, hotels that were designated to house SHN returnees could be in a
local staycations will avoid hotels that weaker position, as half of those who would go for local staycations (148) will
were designated to house SHN avoid hotels that housed SHN personnel.
personnel.
Figure 35: Will you go for local staycations? YES/NO Figure 36: Singapore hotel RevPAR, occupancy rate and
average room rate performance
Room rate/RevPAR (yoy % chg) Occupancy rate (yoy % pts chg)
Title:
20% 0
Source:
10% -5
0% -10
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
-15
-10%
-20
Yes , 148, -20%
30% -25
-30%
-30
No, 353, -40%
70% -35
-50% -40
-60% -45
-70% -50
Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20
Standard Average Room Rate (yoy % change)
Revenue Per Available Room (yoy % change)
Average occupancy rate (yoy % pts chg)
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
19Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Inbound arrivals are likely to remain weak until 3Q20. The same trend was
40-60% of respondents in each age observed in Indonesia, with most respondents in each age group saying that
group in Indonesia said that they will they will wait at least 3 months to resume travelling. This is followed by “wait at
wait for at least 3 months before least 6 months before travelling” for most of the age groups. Malaysians seem to
travelling overseas. Malaysians are
more cautious, with 40-60% in each
be more cautious with the “wait at least 6 months” option garnering the highest
age group to wait at least 6 months share across all age groups. Hence, short-haul travel demand could be muted in
after the lockdown before travelling. the near term.
Figure 37: The majority of people in Malaysia would wait at least 6 months post-
lockdown before travelling overseas
Malaysia I will rush to travel I will wait at I will wait at I will wait at Total
Age group immediately least 3 months least 6 months least for a year
20-25 years old 1 3 7 8 19
26-35 years old 2 14 29 7 52
36-45 years old 3 14 27 22 66
46-55 years old 8 16 25 0 49
56 and above 3 5 10 0 18
17 52 98 37 204
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Figure 38: The majority of people in Indonesia would wait at least 3 months post-
lockdown before travelling overseas
Indonesia I will rush to travel I will wait at I will wait at I will wait at
Total
Age group immediately least 3 months least 6 months least for a year
20-25 years old 1 8 5 0 14
26-35 years old 3 10 8 4 25
36-45 years old 4 15 5 3 27
46-55 years old 5 7 2 0 14
13 40 20 7 80
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Silent Changi. The above substantiates the data of lacklustre overseas travel
demand from Singapore Changi Airport — passenger movement plunged 100%
yoy to a historical low of 25.2k in Apr 20, with only 3,870 flights handled vs. >30k
flights/month pre-Covid. SIA also released anaemic operating statistics, with a
9.3% passenger load factor (PLF) in Apr 20.
Figure 39: Changi Airport: Passenger Figure 40: Changi Airport: No. of flights Figure 41: SIA’s current PLF worse than
movement down 99.5% yoy in Apr 20 down 87.7% yoy in Apr 20 2009 global financial crisis (GFC) period
Passenger movement ('000) Flights handled 10% 15%
35,000 Title: Title:
7,500 % yoy (RHS) 20% % yoy (RHS)
Source: Source: 10%
33,000 10%
5%
5%
6,500 0% 31,000 Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report Please fill in the values above to have them ente
-10% 0% 0%
29,000
5,500 -20%
27,000 -5%
-30% -5%
25,000 -10%
4,500 -40%
#VALUE! #VALUE!
23,000 -15%
-50% -10%
3,500 -60% 21,000 -20%
19,000 -70% -15% -25%
2,500 -80%
Mar 08
Mar 09
Mar 10
Mar 11
Mar 12
Mar 13
Mar 14
Mar 15
Mar 16
Mar 17
Mar 18
Mar 19
Mar 20
Feb-20, Mar-20, Apr-20, 17,000 Feb-20, Mar-20, Apr-20,
-32.8% -70.7% -99.5% -12.3% -49.9% -87.7%
1,500 -100% 15,000 -90%
PLF yoy change (% pts) - LHS RPK yoy growth (%) - SQ only
ASK yoy growth (%) - SQ only
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, CEIC SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, CEIC SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH, COMPANY REPORTS
20Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Recovery of medical tourism will be gradual. We expect similar fallout of
medical tourism on hospital operators, such as Raffles Medical Group (RFMD)
and IHH Healthcare, particularly for elective procedures, but demand for more
critical medical treatments could return quickly once travel restrictions are lifted.
Foreign patients typically account for 20-25% of RFMD’s hospital topline and
close to 30% of IHH’s Singapore revenue, with the bulk from Indonesian patients.
Telemedicine remains in nascent stage
Tailwinds supportive of telemedicine. Under circuit breaker rules, clinics can
only offer essential services or necessary treatment for patients with serious
conditions. Singapore’s Ministry of Health (MOH) also stipulates that even
essential services should be delivered remotely where possible, nudging
healthcare providers towards greater adoption of teleconsultation. According to
the Straits Times, as of 13 Apr, 955 medical practitioners and healthcare staff
have completed a telemedicine e-training course, and 115 clinics are approved
to provide Community Health Assist Scheme (CHAS)-subsidised and Medisave-
claimable video consultations. Prior to the circuit breaker, the telemedicine
scene was seemingly flourishing, with a growing number of providers, from
Doctor Anywhere, Doctor Who and HiDoc, to hospital-branded ones like Raffles
Connect (by RFMD) and MyHealth Connect (under IHH Healthcare’s Parkway
Shenton clinics).
Adoption of telemedicine in Singapore proved to be low. Despite the various
tailwinds, our survey found that telemedicine did not materially take off during
There was only 4.4% of the 502 the circuit breaker in Singapore: only 4.4% of the 502 people surveyed had used
people surveyed who has used tele- teleconsultation, second after Indonesia in terms of penetration level (Fig. 42).
consultation in Singapore.
Nevertheless, 68.1% Singapore- However, including those who have yet to try telemedicine, a total of 68% of
based respondents are open to Singapore-based respondents are open to embracing this possible new norm,
embracing this possible new norm. with the remaining 31.9% preferring to see their doctors face-to-face instead (Fig.
43), especially for those aged 56 and above. Based on responses to the use of
telemedicine, we think more education and corporate/insurance-led initiatives
could improve the telemedicine conversion rate in the longer run.
In the near term, we expect domestic medical care demand for established
healthcare providers and their island-wide chain of primary care clinics to be
fairly resilient, given that they also have their own digital consultation initiatives.
Healthcare services form 45% and 18% of RFMD’s FY19 revenue and PBT,
respectively, but are less meaningful for IHH (vs. its hospital operations).
Figure 42: Telemedicine penetration rate (%) across ASEAN Figure 43: Singapore responses to “Have you used telemedicine
countries based on our survey results during this lockdown?”
No – but likely to adopt for
Title:
myself or family members 1%
Indonesia 12.2% next time Source:
4%
No - but may consider next 13%
time if it is available on my Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
company's healthcare
Thailand 4.3% panel
No – maybe next time, I 31%
need to learn how it works
Malaysia 2.9% 25%
No – not keen, I prefer
seeing the GP face to face
Singapore 4.4% Yes – but will not use it
next time.
26%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
Yes – will still use it next
Telemedicine penetration rate (%) time
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
21Navigating Singapore
Strategy │ May 22, 2020
Overseas education and indoor entertainment still relevant
Large mall occupiers: entertainment-based retailers will continue to see
If the government allows, 78.2% of demand. As malls turn to experiential retail amid ecommerce competition,
Singapore respondents said that they entertainment-based retailers have become the largest occupiers of retail malls.
will visit entertainment venues as Our initial concern was that Covid-19 could affect the longer-term demand for
frequently as before Covid-19. indoor entertainment, like playgrounds and cinemas. The survey findings alluded
that Singapore consumers are unperturbed by Covid-19, with 78.2% of
respondents likely to visit entertainment venues as frequently as before Covid-
19, if not more. The key hindrance for now is the strict social distancing
measures and staggered phases in reopening the economy.
Interestingly, we discover that Singaporeans and Indonesians are less fearful of
Covid-19, compared with Thais and Malaysians, where the majority (62-67%)
said that they will patronise indoor entertainment less frequently after the
outbreak.
Figure 44: 78% of Singaporeans said that they will visit cinemas/ Figure 45: 73% of Indonesians will visit cinemas/
concerts/indoor playgrounds as frequently as before, if not concerts/indoor playgrounds as frequently as before, if not
more more
Singapore Indonesia
80% 75.2% 80%
Title:
69.5%
70% 70% Source:
60% 60%
Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 30% 26.8%
21.8%
20% 20%
10% 10%
3.0% 3.7%
0% 0%
I will visit them less I will visit them more Same frequency as before I will visit them less I will visit them more Same frequency as before
frequently frequently frequently frequently
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
Figure 46: On the contrary, 62% of Thais said they will visit Figure 47: … as will 69% of Malaysians
indoor entertainment venues less frequently …
Thailand Malaysia
70% 80%
62.2%
Title:
68.6%
60% 70% Source:
60%
50% Please fill in the values above to have them entered in you
50%
40% 35.6%
40%
30% 30.4%
30% #VALUE!
20%
20%
10% 10%
2.2% 1.0%
0% 0%
I will visit them less I will visit them more Same frequency as before I will visit them less I will visit them more Same frequency as before
frequently frequently frequently frequently
SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH SOURCES: CGS-CIMB RESEARCH
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