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RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW Retail & Consumer Journal 3. 4. 10. Foreword Steve Henig Malina Ngai Wakefern A.S. Watson 14. 19. 25. Rui Barbas Gaston Bottazzini Maggie Chan Nestlé US Falabella Sephora 29. 34. Ferran Reverter Retail’s Revolution MediaMarktSaturn How To Navigate It? © Oliver Wyman 2
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW FOREWORD Given that 2020 was — to say the least — different, senior executives in Asia, Europe, and the of applause. Food stores are now figuring out the we thought we’d make our latest Retail & Consumer Americas, working in segments ranging from optimal combination of in-store shopping, delivery Journal different, too. consumer electronics to beauty to food. services, and click-and-collect. The COVID-19 pandemic triggered some of the They told us that many of the changes have been In all consumer businesses, the boom in online sales most sudden changes ever in the retail and accelerations of digital transformations that were has led companies to rethink their interactions with consumer goods industries. Demand for food already underway. Take health and beauty: Sales customers. That can mean new digital tools or a and drinks shifted towards at-home consumption were already migrating online, but as stores were differentiation of store types, from flagship centers and the food retail channel — and away from forced to close during the pandemic, digital orders to pickup points. cafés, bars, and restaurants. Many of the retail doubled or even tripled in some markets. Those and consumer sectors more affected by lockdowns retailers and brands that had already invested in In these ways, the pandemic is acting as a catalyst and social distancing measures faced very online tools and interfaces such as virtual beauty for major, lasting changes, and consumers are now challenging economics and had to find new ways advisers were better positioned thanks to the looking to see which companies best respond to to engage remotely with customers. These trends foundations put in place beforehand. their needs in a new digital era. Real leadership triggered surges in home delivery and direct-to- is especially important in this context: Companies consumer businesses. Other segments have seen a sudden, unexpected that have taken smart and consequential decisions tailwind, not only in volume but also in customer quickly are gaining trust and share. Amid such upheavals, it is no longer enough perception. Many supermarkets and food just to make incremental improvements and try producers had been increasingly seen by shoppers Before 2020, many of these challenges were seen harder. Instead, leadership faces big questions as commodities, but the pandemic turned them as tasks for the future. Now, that future has firmly over both immediate actions and fundamental into pillars of their communities. They provided arrived, faster than anyone had expected — and strategy. To hear directly about the challenges, lifelines to vulnerable people at a time of difficulty, there is no going back. opportunities, and solutions, we interviewed and staff in some locations were greeted by rounds © Oliver Wyman 3
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW How has COVID-19 affected your businesses look and feel of mobile applications or desktop. and how did customers’ needs evolve during That is something that must take place internally: this time? moving that sensibility throughout the organization A BRAND in a meaningful way so that everyone understands Honestly, I don’t think anybody could have imagined the importance of digital. We thought we had VOICE THAT the far-reaching implications of the virus — how more time to implement the digital move, but people shop, how they feel about safety and crowds, reality has taught us differently. That’s the RISES ABOVE and their embrace of all things digital. We’ve certainly challenge for us as an organization: How do seen an uptake in many product categories that you accelerate digital engagement across our allow people to meet their family’s needs. And that’s entire enterprise? had a huge impact on us. To your point, whenever I think about digital Frédéric Thomas-Dupuis, Our ability to deliver the same products has and e-commerce, there are three barriers that Oliver Wyman’s Retail & Consumer changed: We’ve had to close our hot prepared food come to mind: First, there is the digital interface Goods Leader, Americas, spoke bars, place produce inside bags, package our bread of the e-commerce site; second, there is the recently with Wakefern Food rolls when we previously would not have done picking and packing part where automation something like that. So there’s been a widespread may be appropriate; and finally, the third piece is Corp.’s Chief Customer Officer impact on the supply chain in the US as a result of fulfillment — pickup and delivery. Do you feel Steve Henig. Henig, who oversees mismatched demand. Consumer packaged goods that COVID-19 has accelerated any one of these branding, e-commerce, marketing, have been under a lot of pressure to deliver what or all three of them? and advertising at the member the customer wants. cooperative, is tasked with creating Due to unprecedented consumer demand, retailers a single, consistent brand voice for That’s the 30,000-feet, bird’s-eye view. all across the US and the globe are reporting customers. Their talk ranged from increases of online orders on the magnitude of What’s been happening and what has stunned 80 percent, 100 percent, and as high as 200 percent, the far-reaching impact of COVID-19, everyone is the consumer's embrace of all things depending on who you speak with. Just to be able to Wakefern’s unique structure digital, something that under the impact of the to meet that demand and to make yourself available and how digital will transform the pandemic has accelerated by about three years. to your customers with delivery time slots or pickup sector. An edited version of their All retailers have had to move faster in their slots in real-time has put an enormous amount of freewheeling conversation follows. embrace of digital, whether it’s e-commerce, the pressure on all of us. © Oliver Wyman 5
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW And so for us, our goal is to expand our e-commerce offerings in a more meaningful way: Retailers all across the US and the globe are more slots, more stores. We’ve opened up more reporting increases of online orders on the e-commerce sites in the past quarter than we have in the past two years and we continue to magnitude of 80 percent, 100 percent and as open more. high as 200 percent. But e-commerce in its current format can’t continue, and companies will need to embrace automation in different ways. Also, automation means different things to different people: to some, it means full-blown centralized fulfillment centers; others focus on micro-fulfillment centers; as an impediment to online sales, arguing that When it’s your own business, when it serves the and to others, it means direct-to-customer. That e-commerce might pull sales out of their stores. community you live in and friends of yours are said, all retailers are going to have to accelerate However, I think the way Wakefern is structured coming into the store — that is a deep level of their comfort zone and embrace automation to actually enables members to be competitive. Do engagement. And so our members took their meet strong customer demand. Because without you do share that view? role of protecting their associates and customers automation, it won’t be possible to meet the very seriously. customers’ expectations to have their products I have absolutely no concern about our structure. in hand in just a few hours. And when you get What is powerful about our members is that all What was the division of labor between Wakefern above double-digit e-commerce penetration in 50 of them are owner-operators and they’re very and the members during COVID-19? Was it more your building, it starts to become very disruptive entrepreneurial. Many have seen the future around about headquarters providing support in areas to your brick-and-mortar customers because item automation. Our structure is not an inhibitor — in that were cross-member challenges, such as picking is taking place in the stores as customers fact I think it’s one of the key drivers of our success. sourcing PPE? are going down those aisles and trying to shop. Our members embrace innovation — including automation. Our structure is that we oversee distribution, Wakefern is a cooperative group of supermarket logistics, marketing, and procurement. That’s brands, consisting of more than 50 members who A core characteristic of your business is that your where the power of the cooperative structure own and operate more than 350 stores throughout members own their stores. How did that structure comes into play. Wakefern is at its finest in a the Northeast. In theory, the members could act help Wakefern respond to COVID-19? crisis and came together to procure as much PPE, © Oliver Wyman 6
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW chicken, toilet paper — whatever was needed so that case, obviously, there are implications for assortment. I would imagine that a CFC would that our members could operate at the highest fulfillment time. skew towards a homogenized offering, with the level in serving customers. range of grocery products being limited, and That’s a complex question — the jury’s still out on would have a hard time working with ShopRite’s Let’s go back to the issue of e-commerce. As it. To answer, I have to step back and ask myself as differentiated offering. we shift to online and digital, what’s your view the retailer/grocer what’s the range of time that I’d on whether customers prefer direct delivery like to start with, what can I realistically support, That’s right. Again, it goes back to what’s the role of or click-and-collect? How do you think that and then to your point, what’s the lead time that perishables in your building and how important is might evolve? I need. it to maintain that range. Plus, what do you do with local, because local is not going away. And so if you It’s a fascinating topic and potentially one that a lot Because when you move into a full CFC (centralized think range is going to be a key differentiator in is riding on. I think delivery to home for groceries fulfillment center) model, you’re going to sacrifice your communities, then a CFC will be challenged in makes a lot of sense where you have Zip Code lead time, and you’re also going to sacrifice the range supporting that differentiation. density — urban areas in other words. In many of products in a traditional store. Companies are of the rural areas, success may hinge on retailers’ going to have to determine whether they’re going to Will assortments, promotions, and pricing support of click-and-collect. Remember, most go to market with a CFC or MFC. There are benefits strategies need to be different in an of America remains a car-centered society, with to each approach. But, again, it goes back to what e-commerce world? people driving to and from their destinations. So the customer wants, what’s your line of sight on for rural areas, we’ll see click-and-collect, while in costs, and what experience you want to deliver to Some adjustments will be needed to the marketing urban areas, it will be more direct delivery. For our the customer. At the moment, however, there isn’t a mix — digital allows for a level of personalization you members, it will be a confluence of the two. tight logistics model in the US to support direct-to- could never achieve in a store. There will be a shift customer from CFC with margins to support it. So in how people shop and get information. There will Let’s assume that we achieve double-digit it’s a jump ball on that one — you have to start with be offers they receive online that they won’t get e-commerce penetration levels. Do you think the customer. offline: Eliminate the waste to give the best offer the delivery in urban centers will be fulfilled to the customers who are most likely to receive from a warehouse, whereas click-and-collect will To your point on matter of range: A winning the message. be done from a store? And will click-and-collect strategy has been for grocers to provide more take a centralized approach too, with picking differentiation. Do you see a shift in your The biggest challenge for the industry, it seems to for orders being fulfilled from an MFC (modified marketing mix? Take ShopRite, which has me, is where we are today — that is, we still have fulfillment center) and dropped off to stores? In moved toward a very broad and differentiated the grocer’s flyer, and at the same time we have © Oliver Wyman 7
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW a number of customers using the app or website I find that marketing generally sees where Plus, there are so many offers and ideas that it’s — and where we want to be tomorrow, which we are headed in the future. Merchandising, a little overwhelming. ROI and technology are is much more engagement. This interim period however, sees the same future but lacks the evolving every day. makes it difficult to allocate capital — whether linkages to marketing so as to be effective in to fund the app, the website, or partnerships this brave new world. Do you see that as a Let’s talk about other players in your market. that can help with personalization. Is that challenge as well? What do you think of discounters such as Aldi something that is a challenge for the industry, and Lidl? Does their future depend on digital? Or or do you feel that is something that needs to It’s a huge challenge. The digital ecosystem is do their pricing strategies protect them from the be done incrementally over time? complicated: There’s a staggering amount of incursion of digital? Are they formidable rivals or complexity, vast oceans of customer data and fringe competitors? This is something we discuss internally all the time. preferences, and all of it overlaid with algorithms. The world has become an “and world.” We didn’t It’s a level of complexity that makes it difficult for I think the competition in the market is upping eliminate circulars, we didn’t eliminate billboards, most organizations to wrap their heads around. everyone’s game. What I would say is that and we didn’t eliminate network television. We That’s part of the reason why digital retailers “digital” is a bad label for what we’re talking just supplemented our approach with banner have been able to move so quickly: They lack the about. Digital for a long time meant e-commerce, advertisements, email marketing, social media, burden of a legacy system — digital is all they know. but digital is really so much more broad-based and YouTube. So we’ve augmented the traditional Ultimately, however, merchants will understand than that. Many retailers have very successfully mix with a vastly expanded marketing ecosystem. and leverage digital, but it’s a big lift at the moment. leveraged social media to drive sales — they’re Companies will have to be very smart about how they go about engaging their customers. I think it’s a continuum: Customers are going to move away from some of the traditional means of engagement. That’s going to free up some capital for investing in the new digital as a means I’m confident that when the pandemic is in the to interact with the customer. That said, I think rearview mirror, people will gravitate back to companies are going to have to make investments in the short run, of maybe five to 10 years, to fund getting a prepared meal, rather than making it that journey so that they can stay connected to their customers. from scratch. © Oliver Wyman 8
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW finding the right digital tools that resonate with meal and a way to get in and out, while feeding Do you have a vision of the role of physical store their customers. their family quickly — fast casual as well as quick in 10 years? service. What happens with the likes of Uber Big companies have the scale that allows them to Eats or Door Dash, is more people dialing up COVID-19 has complicated the trend that we see, look at AI, machine learning, and other innovations. service on their smartphones and getting quick but in the US there was a steady march toward I’m not claiming that the big companies have an delivery not only from a single food provider, but e-commerce, home-meal replacement, meals away advantage, but they have more access to funds multiple ones. from home, and better and more refined unique to find the technology that unlocks some of perishables. Those will be the north stars for the challenges. Is e-commerce a competitive advantage for organizations for the next 10 years. But companies the grocery space? will need to think of how to enable e-commerce to What’s your take on quick-service restaurants? become central to their organization and design Are they a big competitor that the industry needs It can be: I think there’s a fresh play here that can layout. How do I create the best presentation for to take on? be very compelling to a customer. If you can have perishables? What are the best options for meal a fresh heat-and-eat meal without having to drive replacement? I’m confident that when the pandemic I think so. When I think about QSR, I’m throwing to it — that is delivered to your house and that can is in the rearview mirror, people will gravitate back to in Applebees, Friday’s, and other restaurants be enjoyed by your entire family after 15 minutes getting a prepared meal, rather than making it from like that into my definition — not just fast-food in the oven — then I think that is something that scratch. Those are things that organizations will need operators. Customers are looking for a quick grocers can own. to think about as they consider building stores. © Oliver Wyman 9
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW MALINA NGAI A.S. Watson Group COO, Asia and Europe CEO © Oliver Wyman 10
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW How has COVID-19 affected A.S. Watson’s How have health and beauty customer needs business so far? evolved and changed over the past half year? The global economy has been hit hard by the We conducted a global survey in more than HOW CARING pandemic, and it’s been a very tough time for 20 markets in Asia and Europe, asking 22,000 retailers. But our mix of business, geographical customers about their shopping intentions post- BRANDS CAN RISE diversity, and strong financial foundation has COVID. One hundred percent of respondents said enabled us to be very resilient. they will go back to physical stores for shopping, ABOVE COVID-19 especially the Gen Z cohort. One-third of those In February, 95 percent of our Watsons China surveyed said they will even shop more often in stores were closed temporarily, which certainly stores while 80 percent said they will continue to affected our business. But as restriction measures shop online. gradually eased in Mainland China and as our After excelling as a track and field stores began to reopen at the end of April, we The pandemic underlines the desire among saw a robust sales recovery. customers for human connection. Our customers star and a rower who represented really want to get back to the physical stores to Hong Kong at the highest level, In Europe, footfall on high streets and shopping have the human connection again — touching, Malina Ngai moved to the executive centers was severely impacted by lockdown trying the new products, and seeing the friendly suite. Today, she is Group COO and measures. But because our major businesses are faces they know and trust. Asia & Europe CEO of A.S. Watson, the considered “essentials,” most of our stores could world’s largest international health and remain open during the lockdown. In the survey, more than 70 percent of our customers beauty retailer. We asked her about told us that their income has been affected by the In the first six months, our revenue dropped by pandemic. When asked about how their lifestyle the impact of COVID-19 on A.S. Watson, 11 percent, but stepping into the third quarter, would change post-COVID, over 90 percent said they looking specifically at the evolving the decline recovered to low single digits. We’ve would take part in outdoor activities, followed by health and beauty consumer needs and prepared well and are determined to get back to cooking at home and doing DIY beauty treatments. what lessons she has learned from growth in the last quarter of the year. This means we will have to adjust our assortment the crisis. swiftly and continue to enhance the online and offline experience to serve customer needs. © Oliver Wyman 11
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW How did you react to the changes and to the We also tripled production of digital content to moving in that direction, where do you see your operational challenges? What changes to your keep our customers engaged on social media. business and business model evolving? And what business model did you introduce or accelerate? capabilities are you investing in? And what are your key lessons learned? With respect to these changes, how much do you anticipate returning to business as usual? Due to the pandemic, people had no choice but to There is no instruction manual for how to lead at a If and when will we begin to get back to a more shop online. This saw our global e-commerce grow time like this. We are fortunate that what we believe normal world? by more than 90 percent in the second quarter in — loving our people and customers and the online of 2020. People have become more comfortable and offline strategy we have been driving — plays its No one has a crystal ball on when the pandemic with e-commerce and are likely to stick with most critical role during the crisis. will end and what the new normal means. Some online shopping in the future, which in the long behaviors will stay, while some are short-term term will give online sales a boost. To stay close We believe in loving and caring for our people. We COVID driven. One thing we are certain about is with our customers, we developed 30 to 50 percent have 140,000 colleagues globally, and a majority that customers would want to associate more with more digital content for social engagement during of them work in our stores. At the beginning of brands that care for their people, their customers, COVID-19. In a survey of our customers, more than the crisis, we prioritized our immediate efforts on and the communities. The COVID pandemic has 75 percent felt that we had managed to stay close their health and safety, proactive communications, reinforced our purpose to put a smile on customers’ with them in the midst of the pandemic. and most importantly providing security. This has faces, on everyone’s face. helped to keep our people together to fight the Online and offline continues to be our core pandemic in high spirits. In this context, many retail businesses are business strategy and model. As mentioned, our accelerating the shift toward online and direct global survey reveals the customers’ desire for Operationally, we immediately adjusted our business models. With health and beauty human connection, and we believe these bonds assortment to ensure we served the customers’ most urgent needs. We also accelerated our online and offline capabilities. We use digital to stay connected with our 140 million members globally. We enhanced our One thing we are certain about is that cloud technology to handle the surge of traffic to customers want to associate more with brands our online stores. We mobilized the organization’s resources to handle order picking in stores in that care for their people, their customers, and addition to our warehouses, so that delivery could be completed within the shortest time possible. the communities. © Oliver Wyman 12
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW will become even more important in the future. While we continue to invest in offering a seamless As e-commerce continues to grow in every online and offline shopping experience alongside market, brick-and-mortar stores will increasingly industry leading technology, we’ve also been working to build a lasting and close relationship serve as a “third space” — a place that is not with our customers. only about transactions, but also about human Customers are more emotionally demanding for relevance, care, and personalization, so we need to interaction with customers. show them that we understand, we care, and we want to stay connected to them. All technologies are designed to enhance the customer experience, but they can never take the place of quality service, strong relationships, and personal connections with customers. Customers want in-person service they can’t wearing facemasks, they can virtually try on any get online. And they want to be able to touch lipstick product they choose. In addition, Watsons And, how do you look at the role of your physical the products. Taiwan and Thailand introduced a virtual hair color stores going forward? What will a store look like? tool in the mobile app to help customers choose the To keep customers coming back to the physical right hair colorants in the store. Physical stores and online stores are perfectly store, experience-based technology will be complementary in our business model. As introduced in the store to appeal to customers. We recently entered the Gulf Cooperation Council e-commerce continues to grow in every market, Apart from the debut of WatsonsGO, the recently market by opening our first Watsons store in Dubai, brick-and-mortar stores will increasingly serve as upgraded ColourMe service has also been launched offering both the online and offline shopping a “third space” — a place that is not only about in the Watsons app in Hong Kong, Malaysia, experience to customers in the Middle East, one transactions, but also about human interaction Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore, and Indonesia. It uses of the world’s fastest growing markets for beauty with customers. It is just as much — if not more — augmented reality technology to instantly and products. We view this opportunity to unleash the about the customer experience, customer service, virtually show customers how they would appear potential of the Middle East market as an exciting and creating a unique, engaging environment. with different looks. Now, even if customers are and important future growth engine for us. © Oliver Wyman 13
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW Nestlé US Chief Strategy Officer © Oliver Wyman 14
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW The past months have been full of challenges for and eating at home more than ever before, which NAVIGATING THE CPG companies. How has COVID-19 affected your businesses so far and how did consumer needs we have taken to calling the “at-home revolution.” The consumer has been reintroduced to in-home PRESENT AND evolve during this time? How are you looking at 2021? cooking and baking, and I think there is a structural component in this, not just a cyclical aspect. TRANSFORMING For a large food and beverage company like Nestlé, People are evolving their habits, and we believe this is an evolution brought on by the pandemic FOR THE FUTURE COVID-19 had a tremendous impact on business, and it is still affecting us. but one that in many ways is taking hold for the foreseeable future. First, when you consider the massive spike in Nestlé and other CPG companies are also being demand for in-home CPG products, across most challenged to fill in the void left by the loss of out-of- Consumer packaged goods (CPG) of our categories, you can imagine the impact home experiences available to them right now: How companies have been severely tested that had on our supply chain. Supply chains are do you get that out-of-home experience in home? during the pandemic, as shutdown not necessarily built to cope with sudden massive Now that you cannot go out to your favorite coffee orders upended long-standing patterns increases. Our biggest challenge and commitment shop or bakery, how do you replicate those powerful of eating and consumption. To has been: How do we continue to ensure our experiences indoors? Consumers are becoming their understand the impact of COVID-19 on products are on store shelves and we are serving own baristas; they are trying new coffee recipes our consumers, while keeping our people safe and and trying to reproduce the café experience. Our the sector, Hunter Williams, partner in supporting the communities in which we operate? Starbucks At Home site has seen increased traffic Oliver Wyman’s Retail and Consumer Our teams across the company, especially in our since the start of the pandemic as consumers are Goods and Pricing, Sales and Marketing factories and distribution centers have come increasingly searching for recipe content, and we are practices, along with Sirko Siemssen, together to deliver on these challenges. supporting them on the website and via social with Global Retail & Consumer Goods ideas, recipes, and techniques to try. Practice Leader, spoke with Rui Barbas, Second, the needs of the consumer have evolved Chief Strategy Officer at Nestlé US. under the impact of COVID-19, with both structural Another profound consumer-driven impact was the and cyclical effects on food and beverage companies very significant acceleration in grocery e-commerce The conversation covered the massive and CPGs at large. For example, at Nestlé, a vast and direct-to-consumer (D2C) penetration, which changes that have taken place as a majority of our US business is in-home products, more than doubled two or three months into result of the crisis, as well as the long with a much smaller percent representing the COVID-19 and continues to hold. In some categories, lasting impacts Rui expects to continue out-of-home business. Since the beginning of the it almost tripled. I wouldn’t call it a trend — it into the foreseeable future. pandemic, we have been seeing consumers cooking was more of a speeding up of a shift that we were © Oliver Wyman 15
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW already seeing on the horizon for the industry. The engage consumers, but also in the way that you and the pandemic has not and will not divert our immediate challenge was dealing with the reality run your supply chain and backbone. attention from it, neither in the US or abroad. of exponential growth essentially all at once. Despite all the transformation going on, in a crisis Finally, so much has changed in this year. I hope Looking forward, most of the consumer trends and it is crucial not to lose sight of the future and of that some of the new ways of addressing and impacts will persist into 2021 and potentially into your long-term strategy and goals. For example, embracing change, including the empowerment 2022, with some consumer behaviors shifting for take sustainability — at Nestlé, our purpose is to and agility in decision-making, will remain in the the long term. unlock the power of food to enhance life today and post-COVID-19 landscape. for generations to come and being a sustainable In addressing those consumer changes and trends, company is a key part of that. It is also a core Zooming in on the out-of-home trend that seems which adjustments and priorities would you element of our long-term strategy globally, both to have been disrupted, and the D2C trend that highlight for the consumer products industry? from a business perspective and the point-of-view you highlighted: Will out-of-home dining see a of the consumer. Throughout the pandemic we rapid comeback? And how does your investment There is a health crisis and an economic crisis. have not only kept focused on our commitments, in Freshly (a service that delivers direct to the We need to create products and solutions to help but actually advanced the efforts we have been consumer fully prepared, fresh and healthy meals consumers get through both. We are committed to making across our markets. For instance, in the US ready in under two minutes) fit in? meeting the needs of financially fragile consumers, we have announced industry partnerships to reduce as well as the needs of those who are not able greenhouse gas emissions and made great strides Out-of-home dining will come back, but it will to leave their homes because of shutdowns, yet in packaging innovation. These elements are very continue to face some challenges. Right now, there’s at the same time want to have the out-of-home relevant for the planet and consumers expect it — a lack of comfort among consumers about eating dining experience. Also, certainly, e-commerce, D2C, omnichannel, and other trends are here to stay. We at Nestlé were talking about those trends and our approach to them long before the pandemic. The priority of embracing a truly omnichannel approach — of There is a health crisis and an economic bringing offline and online together — was obviously crisis — and we will need to create products reinforced and accelerated as a result of COVID-19. Also, the pandemic has accelerated the much- and solutions to help consumers get through needed digital transformation across all aspects of the value chain — not just in the way that you those twin crises. © Oliver Wyman 16
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW out that will take a bit of time to wear off. In the long term, we believe part of the consumption that Consumers have gotten reintroduced to the shifted in home will stay — people will slowly start to look for out-of-home experiences when they enjoyment and comfort of staying and cooking feel comfortable, but their habits and preferences at home and that will factor into how we as as to how they balance in-home and out-of-home time may have shifted. Consumers have gotten people come out of this period. reintroduced to the enjoyment and comfort of staying and cooking at home and that will factor into how we as people come out of this period. Also, many operators in the out-of-home dining sector are potentially struggling financially. All in all, it will business we started more than 20 years ago, long and digital at large because we had to run business require a lot of partnerships between out-of-home before the term D2C was coined. We also recently much more digitally and dynamically during 2020. operators and others to work together to rebuild acquired other important D2C players such as We will take those learnings and experiences and and reimagine the out-of-home dining sector. That Mindful Chef in the UK and Persona, a personalized continue to run even more efficiently looking said, some of the out-of-home channels are starting nutrition business. In a nutshell, investing in D2C ahead. As for understanding where consumption to bounce back, which is great to see. is a continuation of a path we have been on for was headed during the pandemic, we were guided a long time and a structural trend that we see to a great degree by digital enablement, which Freshly is indeed a D2C meal-solution proposition continuing in the future. Today, there’s both the helped shape how we planned demand and supply, and fits nicely with our focus on delivering a wide consumer demand as well as the required level of how we operated, and how we engaged. variety of delicious food to consumers when and preparedness from a supply chain standpoint to where they want it — be it directly in their home, make these D2C business models effective. In this context, how have you approached the in retail stores, or online. We want to provide issue of not being able to fully rely on “like for unbeatable convenience, choice, and ease to our Moving on to digital preparedness: It seems to be like” comparisons that are so central planning consumers wherever they are and however they the big differentiator between the “sheep and the and running to the retail and CPG supply chain choose to shop. goats.” A key factor in that preparedness, in terms in 2020/21? of infrastructure, is data analytics. How has 2020 We had taken an equity position in Freshly back accelerated that agenda? Look, the past nine months and the foreseeable in 2017. This is not simply something that we are future have been anything but business as usual. doing in response to COVID-19. Our interest in Across the entire value chain we relied upon Like-for-like comparisons were difficult in 2020, and the D2C business model predates Freshly. If you analytics — be it consumer-driven analytics, will be difficult in 2021. That forces leaders to think think about the Nespresso business, that’s a D2C production analytics, demand-signal analytics — through the expected impact of COVID-19, both in © Oliver Wyman 17
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW terms of the elevated consumption, and the future company in a localized way: Global frameworks have been humbled by their response. It helped as the vaccines are rolled out. Because of this you of operating, but agile ways of executing locally. maintain consumer confidence in the food supply need to approach financial budgeting in a much And this in a sense helped us navigate the chain and reassured the consumer that the shelves more dynamic way and with a great deal of scenario pandemic — because our local markets had their were not going to be bare, thus reducing panic planning — of course leveraging a lot of analytics own local supply chain versus a global supply shopping. There’s no playbook for that and it will and digital tools. Also, this is where the role of the chain, which during the pandemic became stick in my mind forever. CFO and heads of strategy become paramount. problematic for many. They will need to keep different planning scenarios Witnessing the massive acceleration of e-commerce in mind as we navigate this unprecedented period Finally, is there a moment that stands out that in just a few weeks also stood out: The expansion of in a very agile manner. you’ll remember 10 years from now? the food and beverage e-commerce infrastructure in the US practically happened overnight. It was You are one of the most global companies. At There are a few memories that I feel will be lasting there previously but not to the extent that we see the same time, there are different approaches to ones. The first is looking at the numbers early on today. And it’s not transient demand: We’re seeing COVID-19 across regions and countries. Does this and realizing the enormity of the coming challenge a new plateau. And so, we also have to quickly create new challenges between global ambitions for our supply chain. The fact that there was not evolve our business model and projections to and local reality? a material interruption in the food and beverage sustain that. supply chain in the US really speaks volumes What you’re saying is valid. Having said that, food about the supply chain resilience. Of course, there Lastly, I am so proud how we at Nestlé came and beverage is very local: The large majority of are always issues here and there, but generally together for our communities. From partnering our products sold and consumed in the US are speaking the industry held firm and rose to the with the Red Cross globally to feeding seniors in also produced in the US and that is the case with challenge. The agility of retailers, manufacturers, New York City with Freshly to donating more than almost all our regions and markets globally — the and suppliers to cope with the spikes in demand 2 million meals to Feeding America and more than products are produced close to consumption. was simply unbelievable. Seeing the front line 4 million bottles of water to relief organizations, I would also add that the balance between local coming together to help the country and world get we mobilized in the US and around the globe to and global hasn’t changed for us. We are a global through the crisis has been amazing to me, and I support our consumers and our communities. © Oliver Wyman 18
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW GASTON BOTTAZZINI Falabella CEO © Oliver Wyman 19
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW Falabella is a diversified food and non-food retail comfortable with us continuing operations in organization, operating in major Latin American our distribution centers. economies. How has COVID-19 affected retail in Latin America? Have you seen customer needs And the final challenge was to find a way to shift all evolve? Has the effect been across-the-board, or of our efforts to a demand that was moving away has it varied by segment and country for you? from the stores to the digital channels. How has food versus non-food been affected? Those were the four major areas of impact. The impact has been very different by market, and Initially, most of our stores were closed, which also by the sequence of events. But there are some meant that the volume of home deliveries really common denominators: First is the effort that we’ve exploded. So while until the beginning of 2020, had to make to keep operations going. And given home delivery was something we mostly did that we operate in very different segments — from internally with our resources — our own distribution ACCELERATING food to home improvement, electronics, and fashion centers and contracts with independent transport — we’ve seen each of these segments impacted companies — we now had to adapt ourselves to ADAPTATION AT differently. Second, there was a permanent focus on work with third-party logistics companies to carry how to maximize innovation while minimizing the out this operation. PANDEMIC PACE level of risk for our team. To circle back on the split between the food and Initially, we focused on securing supply: Our main non-food business: In Europe, we saw a major concern in February was not whether we would be difference in the impact of COVID-19 on the able to operate, but whether our supply chain from economics of grocers and non-grocers. Grocers Gaston Bottazzini is Chief Executive China would be interrupted throughout the year. actually did very well, once the issue of the supply Officer at Falabella S.A., one of the chain was settled. We saw a shift towards major largest South American omnichannel Another area of focus was to ensure liquidity in all “shopping mission” shops, rather than everyday our operations. We prioritized this when it became convenience stores. Within weeks, a new model retailers. Jim Bacos, a senior partner clear that this coronavirus was a global pandemic had emerged for in-store shopping that seemed with Oliver Wyman, sat down with him and not something that would remain within Asia, to work. to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on as was the case with previous coronaviruses. Falabella and the economies where it On the other hand, non-food consumer operates — and lessons Gaston has The third area of focus was how to implement the electronics, DIY and fashion in particular were hit learned from the experience. right safety protocols so that the authorities felt with downturns of 90 percent, and many non-food © Oliver Wyman 20
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW retailers were forced to close for long periods. And finally, home improvement, where we Department stores is where we were impacted the Was that mirrored in Latin America? command a high market share, was a line of most in terms of margins, because demand shifted business that did extremely well. People allocated to electronics and away from fashion. Again, it was an evolving story. For food, we had more of their incomes to improving and renovating a shift in channels, not a decrease in demand. their homes, partly because they‘re spending more There was the increased cost of delivery, which Quite the contrary, sales in general were above prior time in them, which made them more aware of placed major pressure on margins. This meant we years, as consumers no longer had the alternative the wear and tear that’s happened over time. The saw stable sales, but our results and margins were of going out to restaurants. combination of seeing the issues and having a greatly affected. lot of time at home to take care of them created As for non-food segments, it’s hard to generalize. substantial demand for home improvement. So Did you cover a lot of the increased online volume Fashion was hit very hard and continues to struggle. that‘s one sector where we saw online demand through third-party logistics (3PL) providers? People reverted to basics, such as underwear and and home-improvement needs creating activity shoes, and felt less comfortable buying higher- in our stores. We had to increase capacity fast. So to supplement ticket fashion items online, such as dresses or our delivery capabilities, we had to integrate two fashionable shirts. What happened to the share of online purchases or three major 3PLs in the countries where we in your businesses — did it explode? operate. That will shape our thinking on direct-to- In electronics, the demand contracted initially, consumer logistics going forward, allowing us to but then expanded due to home-office needs, To generalize, online sales represented about mix our own solution and 3PLs. entertainment, and communications. In this 12 percent of total sales in the previous year. This segment, good online channels sustained increased to almost 40 percent in the second And if we look at the food side: Was that home themselves very well. However, if your business quarter of 2020. So in terms of sales, the online delivery or was that mostly click-and-collect? was very dependent on physical stores, it didn‘t channel almost completely replaced the offline do well because people were uncomfortable channels. That led to a major explosion in home Food — which was both click-and-collect and going into stores and interacting with delivery volumes. home delivery — is the one segment where stores other people. remained open throughout the pandemic. Stores In terms of margin, the story is very different, continued to present a large proportion of total Another of our strong segments is health and though again it differs by segment. In food, sales and online also grew substantially. Another beauty. Sales in that business decreased and the margin was stable. In home improvement, distribution system that saw rapid growth was on- were hit, particularly in beauty. margins varied. demand delivery. On-demand delivery had already © Oliver Wyman 21
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW been emerging in these markets even before COVID-19. But the pandemic gave a huge boost to Online sales represented about 12 percent on-demand delivery: Demand for delivery of food of total sales in the previous year. This orders within 45 to 90 minutes grew substantially in all of these markets. We had a very fast rate of increased to almost 40 percent in the adoption by our consumers: We went from zero to 10,000 orders per month in Chile in a matter second quarter of 2020. of months. A colleague of yours in North America said that one of the overlooked benefits of COVID-19 the past three years — and how far and fast will it Do you see a talent issue developing? was that it provided volume for direct delivery. be changed? However, the problem with direct delivery There are two things at work here. It‘s a talent traditionally has been that it costs too much We feel the need to move at a fast pace, and not issue, of course, but it’s also a cultural issue that money per unit to be delivered. But with rates just as a result of the pandemic. What is happening you’re trying to overcome. of adoption having now doubled or tripled, he’s is that as the whole market is moving toward better of the opinion that the economics of delivery solutions from a technological and logistics point Thinking about talent: There’s a shift in the profile have fundamentally changed. Do you see of view. The consumer has become more willing to of the talent, you need to create engines of growth, that happening? adopt these solutions. such as app development, direct marketing tools, and business intelligence. We’re in the process of The efficiency of on-demand delivery is driven both But the most relevant driver is the improvement recruiting those types of talent. In some cases, a by the delivery and the picking economics. We are of the solutions. I see the solutions growing at a region like ours has a limited number of people not seeing delivery economics improving much very fast rate and the competition becoming more that have that type of training. So, for example, we as a result of volume. But the picking economics efficient, aiming to make shopping more consumer created a development hub in Bangalore, India, have really improved as a result of the spike in friendly. Any players who are not moving at this which complements our technology organization in volume, which has allowed for the construction of pace will be left behind. Chile, and helps us move much faster in terms of dark stores. Without the volume, you cannot build developing technology solutions. dark stores. In my own experience, one of the challenges that retail organizations struggle with most as But that‘s only one capability profile where we have How different do you think your channel structure they move in the direction of data analytics and been able to recruit the right type of talent. The will be in three years compared to what it was in digitization is the profile of their workforce talent. other is cultural: The whole organization needs to © Oliver Wyman 22
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW be on board with these shifts. Therefore, people financing initially, but then it became focused The biggest surprise for me was the ability of a need to be aware of how the online and physical on the transactional relationship and payment whole organization to work remotely, and to see channels complement each other and how this solutions. Now it‘s aimed at the payment remote work actually help break some of the is not a channel competition, but rather a set of experience both in-store and online, ultimately hierarchical and organizational barriers across solutions that will make the customer’s life easier. complementing our retail offerings. our businesses. It made us more horizontal in We’re making a great effort to train people in how our interactions and helped to boost some of the these solutions work together. We have the Falabella Another example is when we look at the countries cultural changes that we were seeking. Academy, where hundreds of associates learn about where we don‘t have all the pieces of our ecosystem, technology and logistics, BI, data analytics, and how for example in Brazil, where we’re working with Can we assume that this is going to be a all those capabilities help improve the business. third-party marketplaces. So, depending on the permanent change? market, we will build different types of partnerships If you look at China, there are retail ecosystems to complement our ecosystem, but our main focus I think one of the challenges ahead is to find out that are built up around the entire portfolio of is on enhancing the businesses we operate. whether we can project the reality that we are what people buy and do and how they entertain seeing now into the future. It‘s like when you build themselves. And then on the other side is classic One more question about people. The biggest a dam in a river. You know the river will change retail, for example the Amazon purchase of surprise for many business leaders has been just direction — and that once you remove the dam, the Whole Foods, a relationship where each can how well they could operate with fewer associates river will return to its previous path. learn and profit from each other. Do you see in the stores than ever before. Going forward, that evolving in either your company or in many plan to have a dramatically leaner number We‘ve seen very drastic shifts over the last six your continent? of associates in stores. Do you see that happening months. However, once we bring the COVID-19 in Latin America? barriers down, we will go to a new balance. But we We are moving in that direction. It is not clear will not go back to where we were. whether it will be through partnerships. But if In Latin America, we went through a very drastic you think about our acquisition of Linio a couple reduction in overhead and then simplified our What is the one thing that keeps you up at night? of years ago, an online marketplace, it meets our organizational structure. I think that same mentality main objective. We aim to complement our retail of simplification is taking place in the stores, taking The main thing that keeps me up at night is the business with a marketplace platform and as a advantage of technology to automate. That also need to increase the speed of execution. What result, have a more attractive assortment and means people’s efforts can be invested to really add happened over the last six months brought a better customer experience. value to the customer. great deal of pressure to rapidly react to shifts in customer behavior. That pressure will not ease Another example is the development of our What has been most surprising for you about the up as we move forward. We have very ambitious financial services business. We concentrated on past six months? plans of putting our e-commerce under a common © Oliver Wyman 23
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW umbrella. So if there is one thing that keeps me up never have imagined. Had we moved faster in like Falabella and the rest of the retail and at night, it is the question how fast we can execute building out a digital ecosystem and creating digital financing ecosystem. Our move toward creating on all the different initiatives and if they can truly capabilities for our business, we would have been in a marketplace — of doing it not just with a view improve the customer experience. a much better position during the pandemic. of improving assortment, but of opening up our platform to entrepreneurs and small businesses — What did you learn earlier in your career that What lessons do you hope to take with you is an example of how we can become a more useful helped you to navigate these dangerous waters? moving forward, having gone through this very player in the overall ecosystem. difficult time? I actually began in the agriculture sector. From The issue of cooperation is something that is not that experience, I learned that you have to stay on I think the one thing that helped us, and that I’d often mentioned, because every company is more the course and not overreact to very short-term like to continue moving forward, is that intensive focused on its own survival. But I think cooperation shifts. It‘s a bad idea to keep changing your actions levels of communication are very important. As between smaller and bigger companies can create because it rained yesterday or because something organizations, we tend to underestimate the a better offer for the customer. We have a lot of is happening with your next-door neighbor. importance of communication, we often feel like small businesses that wouldn‘t have survived if we are repeating ourselves and get bored of our not for the marketplace business model, because The pandemic has brought on a lot of changes, own message. they don‘t have an online channel. I think that the some of them long-term, while others may pass us larger players becoming a channel for everyone is by. Of course, you have to act in the short-term, but The reality is that organizations and markets take a extremely influential and important moving forward. you also have to make sure you hold steady on your long time to digest those messages. So you need to future plans. Constantly changing strategy is a very keep repeating them again and again, even when bad idea. you feel like you are getting tired. The other big takeaway for me, is the notion that Is there anything else you’d like to add? you‘d better be prepared to confront the long-term trends quickly, because events like the pandemic Going forward, we will see an acceleration of can accelerate those trends in a way that you could greater cooperation between larger companies © Oliver Wyman 24
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW MAGGIE CHAN Sephora Greater China Managing Director © Oliver Wyman 25
RETAIL & CONSUMER JOURNAL INTERVIEW How has your customers’ behavior in China with our customers. Unsurprisingly, private domain evolved in the past 12 months, and how have traffic has become very much top of mind for online they been engaging with you and your channels business in our sector. and brand? BRINGING Finally, the pandemic has not only driven change The past year has been transformative in many ways. in how customers shop, but also in what they OMNICHANNEL Let me focus on a couple of points and how they are looking for in terms of product proposition. relate to Sephora and our direction going forward. We have noticed an increase in the awareness of BEAUTY TO THE sustainability and in how sustainability connects The first — and most obvious — point to touch with wellbeing. How do you maintain your health? NEXT LEVEL on is the shift to online consumption: COVID-19 How do you maintain your wellbeing and healthy underlined and substantially expanded the lifestyle at home? How do you manage for things importance of online channels for all retail, not just to be uncluttered, given that everything is arriving beauty. The rapid expansion of digitization enabled in a package? In China, this sustainability trend us to reach and engage our consumers — despite has translated into a desire for products that are the temporary offline constraints of lockdowns. simple, direct, and uncomplicated, and packaging 2020 marked Sephora’s 15th year that is less wasteful. The simpler, the better. operating in China — and what a The second, somewhat linked aspect are the new, year it turned out to be for the multi- much more direct ways we now engage with Interesting! Let’s zoom in a bit further on brand beauty retailer. Recently, Sirko shopper communities and individual customers the private domain point you made. Why is it Siemssen, Senior Partner and global online. Last year gave a strong boost to live- that private commerce membership schemes head of Oliver Wyman’s Retail & streaming, social media connectivity, and private and communities are growing so rapidly and Consumer Goods practice caught up domain sales. These approaches are enabling us effectively in the prestige beauty sector? to connect one-on-one with our customers and with Maggie Chan, Greater China build a community around our brand. This in turn Prestige beauty retail has traditionally been closely Managing Director at Sephora, to allows us to better understand customer needs tied to stores inside shopping malls and department discuss the impact of 2020 on the and trends, to more effectively tell stories, to stores, and relied on a “private domain experience,” company’s business model and its explain innovative brands and products, and to in terms of personal advice and product testing. The plans for the future. add an emotional dimension to the relationship usual online experience is radically different from © Oliver Wyman 26
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