REMOVAL OF A GENERAL - THE REBIRTH OF A LATENT CONFLICT BETWEEN TWO SOVEREIGN STATES: USA AND IRAN - Sciendo
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Land Forces Academy Review
Vol. XXV, No 2(98), 2020
REMOVAL OF A GENERAL –
THE REBIRTH OF A LATENT CONFLICT
BETWEEN TWO SOVEREIGN STATES:
USA AND IRAN
Diana CHIȘ-MANOLACHE
“Carol I” National Defense University, Bucharest, Romania
dianamanolache88@yahoo.com
Ciprian CHIȘ
“Carol I” National Defense University, Bucharest, Romania
chis.ciprian@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT
Generally speaking, the relations between different states of the
world, but especially between the states that represent world powers or have
a certain type of arsenal, are able to influence the stability and the state of
calmness from a certain region of the world, but also the notion of peace at
the globally level. The 2020 year began with such a situation, in the sense
that United States of America and Iran, which have been for a long period in
relations not among the most well, have arrived at a moment that could
represent, to a very large extent, the starting point of a conflict that will enter
in the world history. The elimination of a very important Iranian general by
US troops in early January 2020, by a surprise attack amonk Iraqian
teritory, markedly aggravated relations between the United States of America
and Iran, but also between the great world power and Iraq or other major
global players who have harshly criticized the US attack.
KEYWORDS: Iranian general, security, agression, drones, ciber attack
1. Introduction state), has aggravated, in a visible way the
The two states that have been for a tensions between the United States of
long time in the relations, not one of the America (hereinafter referred to as the
best, rather tense than peaceful, seem to USA) and Iran, which anyway were not the
have reached in 2020, again, at a point that best, but also, in the same time, between the
could lead, with a veru high probability, to USA and Iraq. Obviously, the reverberations
the development of some atypical conflicts of this attack had an impact on the whole
or crises in the Middle East area. world, the positions of the other great
The killing of Qasem Soleimani, a powers, but also of other states being
very well-known iranian general, result of a among the most diverse.
drone attack developed by US troops in This event occurred on the backdrop
early January 2020, an attack that took of Tehran’s opportunistic and pragmatic
place in Iraq (noting that the attack did not foreign policy, a policy that has not always
take place in the territory of the Iranian respected the demands of world alliances or
DOI: 10.2478/raft-2020-0011
© 2017. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 License.
85of stronger nations, no matter what they are, pf this attempt), who conspired this attack
especially when it comes to Afghanistan, were: the colonel Dragutin Dimitrijević, the
where General Soleimani has played a head of the Serbian Military Information
critical role. At the same time, we must also Service, the major Vojislav Tankosić, his
point out that, as the head of the Quds right hand and the spy named Rade
Force, about which we will discuss later, Malobabić. The major Tankosić was the
General Soleimani was also the key one who armed the assassins with bombs
architect of Syrian President Bashar and pistols, later training them in order to
al-Assad’s brutal attacks on anti-protesters complete the proposed plan.
and anti- governmental rebels in the war The political objective of the attempt
that took place some years ago (about nine from Sarajevo was the separation of the
years ago). southern Slavic provinces from the southern
of Austro-Hungary Empire, so as to form
2. Historical Parallelism – Back the Great Yugoslavia. This event (the
Bow Over Time attempt from Sarajevo) led directly to the
Inevitably, the killing of General outbreak of World War I, given the fact that
Soleimani had as a consequence the Austro-Hungary sent an ultimatum to
appearance of more fears about the Serbia, which was, however, partially
possibility of starting a major armed rejected. This Serbian rejection determined
conflict, fears which, thus, we consider to Austro-Hungary to submit a declaration of
have been and are still justified. Moreover, war, that was equivalent, at that time, with
more many pessimistic voices in the public the outbreak of the first global
space have declared in the media (both conflagration.
written and televised) that the killing of If we analyze, comparatively, the two
General Soleimani could be the beginning events, we could affirm that we are not in a
of World War III. Therefore, the position to draw a parallel between them or
assassination of Iranian general Qasem to say that these events are similar,
Soleimani is compared to the murder of the especially since they occurred over
Austro-Hungarian archduke Franz Ferdinand, 100 years and that both had other
who took place in Sarajevo in 1914, an motivations underlying their development.
event that triggered the First World War. However, it is obvious that both events had
Regarding the assassination of and, consequently, could have (in the
Archduke Franz Ferdinand on June 28, present described situation - Iran versus
1914, we must remember that, after the USA), the escalations of the relations
attack (also known as “the shot that was within international political plan, with very
heard around the world”) (The attempt serious consequences for the whole of
from Sarajevo), both the Archduke and his humanity.
wife, the Duchess Sophie Albina Chotek, In the current context, produced by
lost their lives. Following the investigation the killing of the Iranian general Soleimani,
of that time, it was found that the killer was we consider that it is more important to
a Serbian extremist by the name of Gavrilo make an analysis regarding the possibility
Princip, one of the six members of a or chances of a conflict between the USA
terrorist network coordinated by Danilo and Iran, at a global level, and also an
Ilić, who had behind the Black Hands analysis regarding the military power of the
panslavist organization, but also the secret armed forces of the two states.
group “Mlada Bosna” or Young Bosnia This analysis must start from the
(Danilo Ilić – the biography). The main strategic purpose of Tehran both in the
actors from shadow (or the back characters disposal area and worldwide. According to
86Tehran's policy over the past few years, this Also, Iran has not ballistic missiles that
goal is to project its influence and to defend have a sufficiently large range of action to
its interests in the Middle East or, at least, threaten USA territory.
not to allow strong rivals in the area, such According to statistics, the Persian
as Saudi Arabia and Israel, declared USA army is the eighth largest in the world,
allies, to achieve the superiority in the which is why the leaders of this state (both
region. We must also mention that Tehran political and military leaders) considered
has no friends among the major players in the best strategy to fight with a much
the region, but according to the diplomatic stronger state (such as the USA) is given by
and political relations, developed in recent atypical attacks and by harassment of any
years, it is assumed that Iran would have form.
quite good relations with Russia and China, Thus, according to a study realized by
but does not really have faithful allies the International Institute for Peace
among the great powers, which cannot be Research from Stockholm, in 2018 Iran had
said about the USA. a budget allocated for defense of $ 13.2
Until the time of the lethal attack led billion, thus representing the 18th largest
by USA troops against the Iranian general budget allocated to defense in the world
Soleimani, earlier this year, the Iranian (Tian, Fleurant, Kuimova, Wezeman &
state, through different ways or in various Wezeman, 2018), ranking, from this point
forms, has harassed USA troops installed in of view, very far from the USA (with a
the countries from Middle-East region, with budget of $ 649 billion allocated for the
the aim of determining them to reduce the defense), as well as under the most
activity and even to permanently withdraw significant traditional regional rivals, as:
from this region. Thus, being a country Israel (the 17th defense budget in the world
quite isolated in terms of alliances, Iran with a defense budget of about $ 16 billion)
chose to exploit the vulnerabilities of USA and Saudi Arabia (the 3rd in the world with
troops and its allies through interposed, but a defense budget of about 68 billion of
also to resort to asymmetrical attacks. dollars).
Regarding the power ratio between Also, to highlight the power ratio
the two states, we apreciate that it is no between USA and Iran, but also between
longer necessary to mention that the Persian Iran and USA allies in the region, it is
army is inferior to the American one, important to emphasize that between 2009
having allocated to the defense a rather and 2018, Tehran bought only 3.5 % of what
modest budget, which would result in the Saudi Arabia bought to develop its army.
impossibility of conducting a direct and Therefore, it is obvious that the USA,
opened conflict with the American forces through the budget allocated for defense, is,
and, implicitly, with other US allies from if we could say so, in light years away from
the vicinity and beyond. Thus, everyone is Iran.
of the opinion that, as far as possible, Iran Moreover, under the economic impact
will avoid an opened conflict with the USA of imposing of some sanctions on the part
and will prefer proxy conflicts, through of the USA, it is obvious the fact that
interposed or atypical conflicts. Tehran's budget will steadily shrink in the
As well as we know, Iran's nuclear coming years, including that allocated to
program has been and still is very the military sector.
controversial, but at present, this state has In another statistic, carried out by
not the capacity to produce atomic weapons 2020 by Global Firepower and Business
which to use as a potential threat in the Insider, in a ranking of the armies of the
battle with rivals in the area and beyond. countries of the Middle East, the Iranian
87army was placed the 3rd from 15 countries It should be noted that the majority of
evaluated in this area (Middle East Military aircrafts from the endowmnent of Iran's air
Strength, 2020). force is represented by American
In this ranking of the military powers production aircraft F-4, F-5 and F-14,
in the Middle East, Egypt and Turkey assembled in the 1970s, called
(eternal rival states of Iran from that region, “Tizparvazan” (Flying Jets) by Iranians.
with which Iran brings a permanent Following the 2015 nuclear agreement,
competition on all dimensions), are ranked which eliminated international sanctions
ahead of Iran, that means a lot of things. against Iran, and which invigorated the
According to the same statistics, in the Persian economy, Iran had the opportunity
world ranking, in 2020, the Iranian army to renew its military air fleet. One of the
would be ranked the 14th out of options was the French model Mirage 2000,
138 countries that there were evaluated, but Tehran preferred the more familiar
having a number of 523,000 active soldiers models, i.e. the American and Russian
(the 8th army in the world army ranking ones. However, Iran rejected Russia's offer,
from this point of view), and 350,000 which was ready to sell 30 modern Suhoi-
reservists (the 17th army worldwide 30 aircrafts. The reason for refusing to
considering this indicator). purchase this type of fighter plane would
It is obvious that in this ranking, the have been the reluctance of the Islamic
USA ranks the first, for which any Revolutionary Guard Corps, whose leaders
comparison between the two mondial did not want that the ordinary army to
powers is almost useless, in fact we become too strong.
appreciate that it is almost insignificant. It is important to mention the number
However, we will list, briefly, just for of tanks (a fairly important combative force
information or to highlight the differences, in a direct land conflict), with the USA
some of the combat capabilities existing in having about 6,300 tanks, almost 3 times
the endowment of the two nations, thus more than Iran having a number of about
underlining the fact that, at present, Iran is 2060 tanks. Here we should point out that
not able to start a direct conflict with the most Iranian tanks are outdated models,
USA, resulting so that a direct confrontation some of them even out of a very good
between the two states is almost impossible. functioning, with the exception of the
Thus, overlooking the fact that the Karrar model, which came into the Persian
number of USA enlisted personnel is at Army's equipment in 2018. There have
least 2.5 times bigger than that of Iran, we been a lot of discussions around the
mention that the USA has over 13,000 endowment of the Iranian army for this
aircraft (combat, attack, transport, training, tank, having in mind the significant
helicopters, etc.), 26 times more than those similarity with the Russian T-90 tank, but
of Iran, which has a total of 510 aircrafts. Tehran has denied and continues to deny
To further highlight the inferiority of the information or assumptions that it
the capabilities belonging to Iranian Air would have been collaborating with the
Forces in comparison with USA Air Force Russians in producing this model.
capabilities, we must note that some iranian Taking ino the account the above
aircrafts are still endowed during the 1991 comparisons, regarding the military power
Persian Gulf war, when Saddam Hussein of the two states, we could only develop
(then president of Irak from that time) timid discussions about a report of forces
moved a part of the aircrafts from Kuwait that should worth be considered. If we talk
to Iran in order to avoid to be destroyed by about the maritime fleets of the two states,
Americans troops. we could firmly affirm the fact that Iran
88does not even impress, because as of some language, nicknamed by connoisseurs as
endowment statistics, Iran has not any “black hole” because it is unheard of.
aircraft carriers or destroyers, only The Kilo class is a class of diesel-electric
3 corvettes, 7 frigates and other ships that attack submarines designed and built in the
are insignificant in terms of firepower, Soviet Union for the Soviet Navy. It was
compared to the USA that has 20 aircraft produced until the mid-1990s, when its
carriers, 91 destroyers and many other production was replaced by a more
warships, which says everything in case in advanced version.
which, during a possible conflict between For a brief comparison of the armed
the two states, some of these military forces of the two states, a comparative
capacities of combat would be involved. tabular representation of the most important
However, it should be noted that combat technique in their endowment,
among the submarines that Iran has in reveals, in an obvious way, the USA clearly
endowment, it also holds the Russian model favorable balance of power, which say a lot
known in the West as “kilo” or “paltus” about the imminence of a conflict between
(Kilo-class submarine), halibut in Russian these states and their allies.
The state The power/
The Armed Force IRAN USA forces ratio
Category/The Combat Tehnique (Iran vs USA)
Airpower
Fighters 155 2.085 ~ 7,5 la 100
Transports 62 945 ~ 6,6 la 100
Dedicated attack 23 715 ~ 3,2 la 100
Trainers 94 2.643 ~ 3,6 la 100
Special-missions* 9 742 ~ 1,2 la 100
Helicopters 100 5.768 ~ 1,7 la 100
Attack Helicopters 12 967 ~ 1,2 la 100
Serviceable Airports 319 13.513 ~ 2,4 la 100
Land Forces IRAN USA The ratio
Tanks 2.056 6.289 ~ 33 la 100
Armored Vehicles 4.300 39.253 ~ 11 la 100
Self-Propelled Artillery 570 1.465 ~ 39 la 100
Towed Artillery 2.088 2.740 ~ 76 la 100
Rocket Projectors 1.935 1.366 ~ 1,4 la 1
Naval Forces IRAN USA The ratio
Aircraft Carriers 0 20 incomparably
Destroyers 0 91 incomparably
Frigates 7 0 Incomparably
Corvettes 3 19 ~ 1 la 6
Submarines 34 66 ~ 1 la 2
Patrol Vessels 342 13 ~ 26 la 1
Mine Warfare 8 11 ~ 1 la 1
*
– These aircrafts represent air platforms specifically designed or developed to achieve an over-battlefield
role by utilization of advanced onboard equipment or specialized trait. We could name or include here: Airborne
Early Warning (AEW), Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA), and Electronic Warfare (EW) platforms.
89In order to carry out a complete is conducted, and to develop its defense
analysis of the military picture tactics and force structures.
corresponding to the two states, it is As mentioned before, issues such as:
necessary to approach some qualitative the improving of air defense, the
nuances strictly related to them. developing of own missile programs or the
In this sense, Tehran is a quite increasing of naval forces combat
important enemy, a military actor that is capabilities, will be strengthened by the
more difficult to approach and defeat, development of areas specific to the
compared to Iraq or Afghanistan, the oldest conduct of electronic warfare and air
USA enemies in this region. Iran is a defense.
country with a large population, over Therefore, Iran's conventional forces
80,000,000 inhabitants, spread over about are in a continuous process of development
1,648,000 km², aspects that can hinder a and operationalization, a process that has
possible invasion or an absolute control great chances to materialize, especially
exercised by the USA. Moreover, the rather from October 2020 when the military
rugged terrain, specific to this area, is not embargo imposed by UNO, by Resolution
conducive to a direct land invasion, being No. 2231, will expire, and Iran will be able
rather conducive to guerrilla warfare. acquire modern military capabilities.
Over time, Iran has used both As a general conclusion about the
conventional and unconventional capabilities power ratio between the two states, it is
in order to achieve intern and international clear that Iran is not a remarkable global
goals. In an attempt to strengthen its power or a force that could pose real
influence in the region, Iran is constantly problems to USA in the event of a direct
trying to maintain its ties and links with the armed conflict. For this fact, Iran will
international community, and at the same certainly adopt a careful, well-paid tactic in
time to develop its own military capabilities its relationship with the USA, and the
in order to achieve an effective defense. attacks or actions that will develop will be
Although an enemy as advanced and characterized by atypia and asymmetry.
well-endowed as the USA is extremely Most likely that, in the first phase, Iran will
difficult to defeat, even by major global resort to, trying to give lightly strikes at
military actors, in order to gain some various USA government sites or to realize
advantage in a possible direct conflict, cyber-attacks to different sites belonging to
Tehran's leaders focus on three extremely this state.
important elements: internally developing However, following this quantitative
of ballistic missiles, that are able to destroy analysis of the forces at the disposal of the
targets or objectives throughout the region, two states and from which we conclude that
the handling of the Strait of Hormuz by the the USA is at a clear advantage over Iran, it
use of some combat technique from the is necessary, in order to carry out a
endowment of coastal naval forces, in the complete analysis, to discuss, in short
sense of hindering or pirating oil transports terms, however, about the aspect related to
(vessels or ships), and the support for those the place of a possible confrontation
who are willing to carry out unconventional between the two powers. Thus, will a
operations. possible war between the two states take
Also, in recent years, Iran has begun place in Iran, on the territory of this state or
to take steps to improve both its defensive in its vicinity? How will the USA act in
and offensive capabilities. Moreover, Iran order to achieve a certain success and what
has begun to review its military doctrines, kind of forces will it project in this area to
to make changes in the way of how training obtain a favorable result? In fact, no matter
90how many questions are asked about a It should be noted that, due to the
conflict between the two states (both of significant number of soldiers stationed in
them are sustained in one form or another the territory of several states in the area,
by various other states), the USA has a quite important USA allies, all ballistic
clear advantage, but it is normal to missile attacks, respectively all take-offs
exemplify a few hypotheses in this regard. and landings of attack aircraft and bombers
Thus, it is more than certain that the will take place on the territories of these
USA and its allies will not act as in the case states. Among these states, we must
of the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq or as in mention: United Arab Emirates, Saudi
2003 when they invaded Iraq, in what Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait or Oman. Also, it is
represented the Operation called “The possible that, in order to be able to break as
liberation of Iraq by the United States of many flanks of Iran's air defense as
America” (before March 19th, 2003, it was possible, the USA and its allies will
called Operation “Enduring Freedom”, a conduct simultaneous missile fires from the
continuation of the war in Afghanistan). territories of all allies in the area, which
Here, we must consider both the difference could raise serious problems for the level of
between the two states (Iran and Iraq) and Iran's effective air defense.
the time factor, in the sense that everything Another possible scenario, but
related to 2020 and we refer here especially probably more difficult, more costly and
to the military technology and current subject to broader international law, would
combat capabilities, differ in a very large be for the USA and its allies to deploy more
measure of the military technology specific maritime combat capabilities in the Strait of
to year 1991 or year 2001. Hormuz, given their mixed combat
First of all, we must point out that capacities (see aircraft carriers, destroyers
Iran in 2020 is much stronger, better or submarines), as well as the totally
structured and better endowed than Iraq in unfavorable balance of forces for Iran.
1991 or in 2003. In addition, in terms of Iran's naval forces are far below the USA
population, Iran has a larger population naval forces, not to mention other USA
than Iraq, of about three times, and this allies, and the development of a naval
aspect made that Iran to be considered an conflict will certainly lead to the defeat of
important military power. Also, this aspect the Iranian state. Thus, it is clear that the
and the way in which the military power of implementation of this course of action,
Iran is organized will certainly prevent the supported by ground-based missile attacks
USA from deploying or disarming developed from the territories of all USA
paratroopers on the territory of this state, in allied states in the area, is very favorable to
order to launch direct actions. the USA and its allies and could have a real
For the protection of their own troops, chance of success in a relatively short
but also of those of the allies that will period of time.
indisputably enter into this possible armed But, in both scenarios briefly
conflict, the ground attacks or a direct described in the previous few paragraphs,
invasion will be avoided initially, more than we did not consider a possible involvement
likely. Thus, for the begining, the USA and of the Chinese state in this possible conflict,
its allies will adopt medium-range ballistic in the sense of supporting Iran.
missile strike tactics. The destructive We must remember that the Chinese
actions of these missiles will be followed, state is a supporter of the Iranian state
more than likely, by the rapid conduct of air (perhaps not the most fervent, but an
raids with last generation dedicated attack extremely important one), and a possible
aircraft and bombing aircraft. involvement of China in such a conflict
91would be possible given that the USA is the missile systems that are quite efficient.
number one competitor of China both More than this information, we have to say
militarily and economically. It is obvious that Iran possesses some missiles included
that China's involvement in such a conflict in Sejil-series that are ballistic surface-to-
would radically change the data of this surface missiles. Sejil missiles represent a
discussion, but the development of this family of Iranian solid-fueled medium
topic may be the subject of a further debate, range ballistic missiles. Sejil missiles are
which may constitute a much broader work replacements for the Shahab liquid-fueled
than this article, as many and diverse issues ballistic missiles. The missile profile of the
can be considered. Sejil closely matches those of the Ashura
(or Ghadr-110, another iranian missile).
3. Iranian Rockets – The Strength Uzi Rubin, the founder of Israel's
Capacity of the Iranian Army missile defense program, assesses Iran will
Given that sanctions imposed on Iran gradually replace its liquid-propelled
by the USA and not only by the USA, have Shahab missiles with solid-fuelled Sejil-2 to
drastically reduced oil exports and hit the improve the survivability and agility of
economy of Iran, we affirm that imports of their strategic missile forces.
various goods, including imports of military Sejil missiles are covering the entire
products, have decreased significantly. area of Israel, Saudi-Arabia, Egypt, Turkey
As a result, the Persian army was and Pakistan, from launch positions in
forced to rely on local development of new central Iran. Rubin estimates that Iran will
technologies and on cheaper equipment be able to extend its missile strike capability
imported from Russia and China. To make to 3,000 km, with strike capability reaching
up for the gap between the US and its well into central Europe.
regional rivals, Iran has focused on building The Persian Army also developed
a short-and medium-range ballistic missile some intercontinental missiles, but their
system, which is recognized as the most development was suspended after the 2015
developed in the region. Thus, Iran created nuclear agreement, given that this type of
the Shahab 1 rocket which has a range of missile was designed to carry nuclear cargo.
300 km. Instead, in response to the After the USA withdrew from the
possibility of using this type of missile, nuclear treaty in 2018, Iran gradually began
Washington installed several missile shields to dismantle all its commitments, and the
in some neighboring countries (USA allies), killing of general Soleimani is believed to
in order to prevent potential ballistic threats have led Tehran to give up entirely within
from Iran. the limits imposed by the nuclear treaty that
It is important to highlight that Iran was totally ignored or even “dead” we
has the largest inventory of ballistic could tell. In this context, it follows that
missiles in the Middle East and is Iran could resume, at any time, the program
developing indigenous weapon systems of development of intercontinental missiles
such as long-range missiles. that have the capacity to transport nuclear
We must also point out that the cargoes.
Iranians developed a rocket with an action
range of 2000 km, namely Shahab 3. Given 4. Drones and Cyber Attacks
this range, it is clear that Iran has become a Last but not least, Iran has a complete
real threat to Israel, as the latter could be hit set of drones, which it has used in
by such a missile. This would be Tehran's operations in Iraq and Israel. It is believed
last resort weapon. Iran also has in that all Iranian drones were also used in the
endowment 32 Russian S-300 ground-to-air attack on oil installations in Saudi Arabia
92that caused significant damage to the Saudi technology development company based in
government. Sunnyvale, California, that provides
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards security services, information about threats
also have a division specialized in cyber and responses to cyberattack) warned
attacks, which has carried out such attacks customers that it was noticed that hackers
on and off the borders of Iran. After who support the Islamic Revolutionary
Soleimani's assassination, several cyber Guard Corps from Iran attack local sites
security experts in the world's great powers belonging to various institutions in the
said that one of Tehran's possible responses cities of Minneapolis and Tulsa in
would be a cyber-attack against USA Oklahoma, with images that honored the
entities (Iran’s military response may be Iranian general Soleimani.
‘Concluded’ but cyberwarfare threat Moreover, Iranian or pro-Iranian
grows). Lastly, Iran has a complete drone hackers alleged that they are associated with
liner, which it has used in operations in Iraq Iran in terms of an attack on the official
and Israel. It is believed that all Iranian website of the Federal Library Depository
drones were also used in the attack on oil Program, a sub-branch of the Government
installations in Saudi Arabia that caused Publishing Office, in the sense in which
significant damage to the Saudi government. that was posted a picture with the bloodied
After the killing of Major-General face of USA President Donald Trump, as a
Qassim Soleimani, also having in mind the result of somebody punching him.
endowment technique that could be used In the same context, of threats and
for developing a direct conflict with the attacks in the cyber environment, an adviser
USA, it is more than likely that Iran will of the President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani,
adopt a fight focused mainly on the use of used the Twitter platform to post some
informatics systems, which will be focused messages on the websites of US President
on the boycott of the informatics systems of Trump's properties, stating: “Our only
some USA institutions, including, most problem is Trump. In the event of a war, he
likely, the USA military informatic who will be the one who bears the entire
systems. responsibility” (Iran’s military response
This way of action of the Iranian may be ‘Concluded’ but cyberwarfare
army is more than likely considering Iran's threat grows).
history of cyber-attacking both the USA
and its allies. Thus, it was found that in the 5. Islamic Revolution Guards
days following the assassination of Iranian Corps – an Army in an Army
General Soleimani, Iranian hackers (or the Given the fact that in the previous
pro-Iranians ones) attacked USA pages we have discussed the phrase of the
governmental sites and conducted several Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards
divisive misinformation campaigns on Corps (IRGC – hereinafter), we will present
social media. As an example, it could be below some data on this military component
seen that members of the cyber base in of the Iranian state.
Miqdad (Iran) used some official channels Thus, of the 523,000 active soldiers
of the state through which they sent various of the Iranian army, at least 150,000 belong
threatening messages with attacks or to the IRGC. This military component
reprisals on the USA and Israel. represents one of the strongest components
These threats also materialized in the of the Iranian army. The IRGC commander
days following the event that took place in is usually a general who is directly
early January 2020. Thus, the cybersecurity subordinate to the supreme Iranian leader,
company CrowdStrike (a cyber security nowadays Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
93We must specify that the Iranian system and as subordinate structures IRGC
forces, especially IRGC, do not depend have a military faction known as the Al
solely on state budget financing, they Quds Force, which conducts clandestine
controlling some of the total value of operations and other asymmetrical activities
companies listed on the Tehran Stock in the neighboring states, such as: Lebanon,
Exchange and owning thousands of other Syria and Iraq.
companies that bring in revenue for the Since its origin as an ideologically led
army. Several international voices claim militia, IRGC have played an important role
that IRGC controls a large part of the in almost all stages of Iranian society's
underground economy in the state. development. Having an extended social,
IRGC is a branch of the Iranian political, military and economic role under
Armed Forces, so named because it was President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's
founded after the Iranian Revolution from administration – especially during the
April 22, 1979, along with the establishment presidential elections from 2009 and the
of the Islamic Republic of Iran, by the order post-election suppression of the protest -
of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. determined many western analysts to claim
Regarding this revolution, we should that its political power surpassed even the
mention that Khomeini and his supporters political power of the clerics, followers of
had a problem: they were not sure that they the Sharia religion.
could trust the military forces that shortly IRGC are considered as being a
before the end of the revolution and shortly terrorist organization by the governments of
before the establishment of the Republic, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and, of course, by
supported the dismissed leader. the USA. Thus, in a public statement made
Thus, this military force was set up on April 8, 2019, USA President Donald
and strengthened, representing a parallel to Trump stated about the IRGC that it would
the regular one, which consisted of skilled be a terrorist organization, which requires
fighters, great supporters of the new economic sanctions but also sanctions
leadership and on which it was based against members of this group and against
entirely. affiliated individuals and groups.
While the Iranian army has the role of The commander of the IRGC is, as of
defending the Iranian borders and April 2019, Major-General Hossein Salami,
maintaining the internal order, according to who was preceded by Mohammad Ali
the Iranian constitution, IRGC aim to Jafari (who led this military force from
protect the political system of the Islamic 2007 to 2019), who was preceded by Yahya
Republic, as well as to prevent atypical or Rahim Safavi, in 1997-2007.
deviant internal movements, but also IRGC are made up of several units of
potential cou d’etats. division level. Soleimani, the general killed
IRGC have approximately 125,000 by USA troops, has led one of these groups
military personnel and include ground for decades, respectively the Quds Force,
forces, aerospace forces, naval forces and responsible for operations abroad,
an intelligence services. Currently, its naval especially in the Near East. The number of
forces are extremely important, being the troopa that make up the Quds Force is
responsible for the operational control of not exactly known, but according to some
the Persian Gulf. Also, it controls the sources this “is estimated at about 5000
paramilitary militia called Basij, an entity soldiers” (Abrahamian, 2008, pp. 175-176),
with a rather strange military status. according to others, “the number of soldiers
IRGC are also responsible for the of this force could reach up to 17-20
development of the Iranian ballistic missile thousand members” (Jack Watling), and
94according to other sources, this number sanctions on Iran following the September
“is between 10 and 20 thousand members” 14, 2019 blows, executed from Iranian
(Quds Force). territory on oil installations in Saudi Arabia,
IRGC also control the Basij militias, specifically in Abqaiq, and Khurais,
paramilitary troops with approximately provinces in the southern and eastern areas
90000 members, mobilized to maintain the of this state. These attacks, most likely
order and to suppress protests, as happened executed by Iranian troops, included cruise
in November 2019, when hundreds of anti- missiles but also armament-carrying drones
government protesters were killed and aimed at hitting Arab oil installations,
several thousand injured. which inevitably led to a decline in Saudi
Basij, like other institutions in Iran, oil production and implicitly affected the
was formed as a volunteer force during the international trading market oil, with major
Iran-Iraq war, but in the meantime it has negative effects on the world economic and
taken root and has become a feared force of financial level.
the state. These attacks have been harshly
Due to General Soleimani, the Quds criticized in international plan, USA being
Force has mobilized various Shiite militias the most fervent protester. Thus, at that
in at least five states in the region, which is time, Donald Trump, the USA President,
supposed to bring together up to 200 said he does not want to start a war with
thousand fighters. These Iranian interposed anyone, but in the event that such actions
fighters operate within the limits of the law will continue, the USA does not exclude the
in the respective states, being engaged in initiation of military action against Iran.
attacks and conflicts that should not exceed Following the deployment of these
the threshold of initiating war between attacks, which the international press
states. considered a treacherous act, Mark Esper,
Another branch of the IRGC is the USA Secretary of Defense, announced the
naval forces, which are mainly composed of deployment of troops and equipment in
armed vessels patrolling the Strait of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates,
Hormuz, where 20% of global oil precisely to support the air defense and to
production passes. In 2019, in the Strait of prevent the attack with missiles launched
Hormuz, there were several clashes between from countries situated in the Arabian Gulf.
Iranian vessels and foreign oil vessels. Jonathan Hoffman, the spokesman of
Given the structure of the Iranian USA Department of Defense, said that the
state, it appears that the IRGC is stronger Trump administration was waiting for the
than the regular Iranian army, and relations confirmation of the Saudi government that
with these autonomous troops are not those attacks were carried out by Iran,
always harmonious, existing many moments before engaging in any action. Hoffman
of tension between the two entities. acknowledged that the evidence indicated
that Iran was responsible for those attacks.
6. The Actual Situation between the Given these, it is obvious that both
Two States the USA and Iran will be extremely
It is obvious that relations between cautious in any move or maneuver
USA and Iran are not and will not be the undertaken by the other state that may have
best, too soon, especially after the killing of an impact on areas of interest or influence.
Iranian General Soleimani. Surely Iran's majors representatives will
We must remember that the relations prepare a series of asymmetrical operations
between these two states have deteriorated against USA, from cyber-attacks to threats
greatly after the USA imposed more many or attacks on USA personnel and USA
95allied personnel, that there is in various launching of Iranian missiles in order to
missions in the areas of influence. Also, it strike further American targets. This is
is obvious that USA will not give back to based on the important development of
prepare to answer, as such, to all these Iranian state technology in the area of
actions through much firmer and more missiles.
targeted actions. The third form of the Iranian state
answer to USA and its allied attacks is
7. Iranian Answer – a Strategy particularly significant, being represented
Based on Three Pylons? by the possibility of closure of the Strait of
Most analysts and experts in defense Hormuz and the prohibition of access of
domain do not believe that Iran will risk an foreign ships. Adopting this measure, it
opened war with the USA to revenge the could cause chaos in the global energy
death of General Soleimani. Also, it is market, taking into account the uniqueness
equally predictable that Iran will prepare and the role of this strait, the access path for
and launch asymmetrical operations to oil transportation to different parts of the
attack Americans forces and interests, and world.
also its allies in the Near East. In this If Iran would have been restricted the
category could be included the bombing access to the Hormuz Strait, this became a
executed by Iranian troops on two USA real conflict zone. In this case, Iran could
military bases situated in Iraq, immediately become a very important player in the
after the killing of the General Soeimani, world economic market, as it is the state
who, fortunately, did not result in human that represents the fourth largest oil reserve
casualties. Thus, we can firmly affirm that in the world (over 150 million barrels),
Iran will not back down to exploit all the which will make it to survive a significant
conflicts in the area with an impact on the period of time for such a blockage.
USA and its allies (from the smallest to the Most probably, Tehran does not
most significant conflicts), and here we expect to a ground invasion executed by
could speak about Syria, but also to use USA and its allies because, as some
other strategies for indirect attack on the political and military analysts declared that
USA or its allies. this effort is thus estimated: “1.6 million
In such a confrontation, but also soldiers would be needed for a successful
considering the military technical possibilities, operation, which would not end in a lasting
it is obvious that Tehran can be based on conflict with a counterinsurgency like the
three pillars that we will list in the future. one in the Iraq conflict” (Iran will feel it
The first pillar is represented by the must retaliate against US). Given the fact
actions carried out among foreign territories that the Iranian attack on some military
by the Quds troops, a kind of defense across bases in which there were, also, camped
borders. In this regard, the operations USA soldiers, on January 8 (as an answer to
carried out by these troops are very well the killing of General Soleimani) did not
known, and it is obvious that these kill anyone, and Donald Trump understood
operations may affect USA forces situated that he agrees and he is opened to easing
outside Iran, but in the Middle East. This tensions. Also, few political and military
pillar is very sustainable due to the fact that experts believe that Washington is
the best fighters are part of these troops, but considering a ground attack against Iran.
also they are the most trained, in different
fields.
The second pillar of the Iranian
answer to possible USA aggressions is the
968. USA Troops Situation in the American soldiers, that is located in Oman
Region (having the mission tu sustain the
Several sources estimate that the operations against ISIS troops, but also to
number of USA soldiers in the Middle East promote the regional stability).
would be around 70000. According to a In conclusion, we affirm that, in the
source, a confirmation of the “distribution current context, the best option for Iran is to
of American troops” in the Middle East, at maintain the status quo.
4th of January 2020 (Persian Force: How Also, we appreciate that neither of the
strong is Iran’s army?), is the following: two states in question really wants a
– 14000 soldiers in Afghanistan (the confrontation, the relations between them
largest contingent of USA soldiers in the being, rather, at a semi-formal level.
area, given the unfinished conflict in this It is obvious that Iran does not want
country, as well as NATO continues to an opened conflict with the USA, and, more
deploy personnel for Resolute Support than likely, it will avoid a direct
Mission, along with 8000 other soldiers confrontation with the American adversary,
from other NATO member countries); but it is very likely that it will try to
– 13,000 soldiers in Qatar (there is a compensate the lower military power by
fairly close connection between the USA supporting and conducting atypical
and this Gulf state, meaning both states operations, through proxy conflicts, carried
work together to combat regional terrorism); out through interposed.
– 13,000 soldiers in Kuweit; If we were to study the history of
– 7,000 soldiers in Bahrain (most relations between the two states, we are
belonging to the Naval Forces, whose main able to ascertain that the assassination of
mission is to maintain the security in the Iranian General Soleimani by the USA and
Persian Gulf, with troops stationed at the the immediate response of the Iranian
main naval support point in Bahrain, at the troops materialized in the attack on USA
Shaykh Isa Air Base and at Khalifa Ibn bases in Iraq are, in fact, the first opened
Salman Port); confrontations between the two countries
– 6,000 soldiers in Irak (they are after more than 40 years, more precisely
presented in this state in order to carry out after the 1979 year, when several Iranian
actions to support counter-terrorist protesters invaded the USA Embassy in
activities carried out by ISIS troops. Tehran, taking more American people as
The number is most likely to have changed, prisoners who were later released, after
as Iraqi officials said that USA troops are USA representatives made more diplomatic,
no longer welcome to remain in this country, military, and non-political efforts.
the main reason being the killing of Iranian At this point, one of the questions we
General Soleimani by USA troops); should reflect is the following: What would
– 5,000 soldiers in the United Arab be the scenario that could take place as a
Emirates (the small nation situated near the result of all actions of the two actors we
Hormuz Strait hosts a quite large number of talked about: the outbreak of a regional
USA soldiers, so that the USA can have a war, the emergence of some terrorism acts
clearer picture of activities deployed in the or of some atypical warfare actions or a
Hormuz Strait. The troops are camped at global economic crisis?
Air Base from Al Dhafra, in Jebel Ali Port The discussion about the outbreak of a
but also within Fujairah Naval Base); war between the two states shows us that Iran
– 3,000 soldiers in Saudi Arabia; occupies a lower position compared to the
– and the list could continue to the USA, which has the strongest army in the
smallest contingent that consisting of 600 world, as it is explained earlier in this article.
97But, the calmness situation between the two some of them or one of them represents
states is far from ending here, because the significant economic powers. For example,
tensions from the past, as well as the the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil extraction
existing ones, strongly mark the relations resources in 2019, attacks claimed by Shiite
between them. The Iranians have not yet Houthi militias (attributed to Iran), had a
managed to revenge the killing of General global significant impact, in the sense that
Soleimani, the Iranian religious leader these attacks led to the rising of oil prices
himself, the great ayatollah Ali Khamenei, due to the substantial loss of capacity
being severely affected by the great production of Saudi Arabia. Therefore,
american coup. dissensions or misunderstandings between
Some voices say that the Iranian different countries of the world can cause
religious leader, Khamenei, wait and wait, serious problems at the global level, with a
wanting to catch a favorable moment to major economic impact.
start a confrontation that could have some However, the option of the two major
favorable results for the Iranian state. On states, the USA and Iran, to opt for
the other hand, USA President, Donald diplomacy is a valid one. In the context in
Trump has shown that he is not willing to which the great European powers want to
let things to evolve in a negative way, enter the Iranian market, and the Asians
obviously. depend quite a lot on the oil from the
Moreover, the history (even the recent Persian Gulf, the outbreak of a war in this
one) proves us that any place on this planet area is undesirable. The Americans are also
can be a target that could be attacked, well aware that Iran has the military
whether this place is situated in South technology necessary to hit American bases
America, Africa, Europe, Asia or even in situated inside the territories of the USA
the USA. The General Soleimani has built allied countries from this region, and they
networks both in the Mediterranean Sea and probably do not want a major conflict in
in the Gulf area, regions where there are this area.
enough american bases that could become A conciliatory position adopted by
real targets for the Iranian army or for its Iran is quite likely and, at the same time,
allies. There are already indications in Iraq represent the right and correct option for
that an important militia leader threats both sides. The political and social
retaliation and his statements are made in destabilization caused by USA sanctions is
the support of others threats made by particularly significant for Iran, an eloquent
supporters of the Tehran regime. example being the protests launched in
However, in the context in which a November 2019. At the same time, the
conflict between the two states would message sent by President Trump by killing
escalate, it is obvious that the attacks of General Soleimani was that the USA
Iranian militias would certainly intensify defends its interests, just resorting to force,
and entire this context would lead to and attacks and pressure on Washington are
numerous other terrorist attacks commited not agreed and will not be tolerated as they
against freedom and democracy. Cyber have been tolerated in the past.
attacks would also spread extremely quickly, At this point, however, we appreciate
as it was exemplified during this article. that neither of the two states in question
The experience of the past years really wants a confrontation, the relations
shows us that things can evolve more than between them being rather semi-formal.
that. An economic crisis can result relatively It is obvious that for Iran, an open and
easily as a consequence of existing direct conflict with the USA would be
dissensions between states, especially when extremely costly and, more than likely, Iran
98will avoid a direct confrontation with the calmed down, the risk of transforming the
American opponent, but it is very likely relations between these two states into a
that it will try to compensate the lower real war still persists. But, at the moment, it
military power by supporting and deploying is obvious that the confrontation between
atypical operations, through proxy these two states is chatacterized by tense
conflicts, carried out through intermediaries but controlled relations, and concrete war
or interposed elements. actions are not revealed.
Although, for the moment, the spirits
between the two nations seem to have
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