Reanalysis of the PacIOOS Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System, an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System v3.6
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Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-195-2019 © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Reanalysis of the PacIOOS Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System, an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System v3.6 Dale Partridge, Tobias Friedrich, and Brian S. Powell University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Department of Oceanography, Marine Sciences Building, 1000 Pope Road, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822, USA Correspondence: Brian S. Powell (powellb@hawaii.edu) Received: 7 April 2018 – Discussion started: 4 July 2018 Revised: 1 November 2018 – Accepted: 8 November 2018 – Published: 9 January 2019 Abstract. A 10-year reanalysis of the PacIOOS Hawaiian get (Souza et al., 2015). In this work, we perform an extended Island Ocean Forecast System was produced using an in- reanalysis from 2007 to 2017 in order to produce a consistent cremental strong-constraint 4-D variational data assimilation dataset for further studies of the dynamics around Hawai‘i. with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS v3.6). The PacIOOS forecast system uses the time-dependent Observations were assimilated from a range of sources: incremental strong-constraint four-dimensional variational satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST), salinity data assimilation (I4D-Var) scheme (Courtier et al., 1994; (SSS), and height anomalies (SSHAs); depth profiles of tem- Moore et al., 2004) within the Regional Ocean Modeling perature and salinity from Argo floats, autonomous Seaglid- System (ROMS) (Moore et al., 2011c; Powell et al., 2008; ers, and shipboard conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD); Matthews et al., 2012) to best reduce the residuals between and surface velocity measurements from high-frequency the model and observations, while maintaining a physically radar (HFR). The performance of the state estimate is exam- consistent solution. The class of methods known as 4D-Var ined against a forecast showing an improved representation are state-estimation techniques that create a quadratic cost of the observations, especially the realization of HFR surface function to be minimized over a defined time window utiliz- currents. EOFs of the increments made during the assimila- ing observations at the time they occur in a physically con- tion to the initial conditions and atmospheric forcing com- sistent manner to adjust the initial state, boundary conditions, ponents are computed, revealing the variables that are influ- and atmospheric forcing to represent the measurements. The ential in producing the state-estimate solution and the spatial I4D-Var scheme is used in operational centers around the structure the increments form. world and solves for increments to the model state, boundary conditions, and atmospheric forcing using the model physics as a constraint. The combination of I4D-Var within ROMS has been used in previous studies of various regions (Pow- 1 Introduction ell et al., 2008; Broquet et al., 2009; Zhang et al., 2010; Matthews et al., 2012; Souza et al., 2015). The details of the The Pacific Integrated Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS, model and the observations used within this study are pro- 2018) has produced daily forecasts of the ocean state sur- vided in Sect. 2. rounding the Hawaiian Islands since 2009. To facilitate the Our model domain covers the Hawaiian Island forecasts a data assimilation procedure is used to incorporate Archipelago (Fig. 1), a dynamically active region for recent observational data into the model to produce the opti- both the ocean and atmosphere. The North Equatorial Cur- mal initial state from which to forecast. A number of model- rent (NEC), flowing from the east, splits upon encountering ing studies have been performed with older versions of this the island of Hawai‘i, with the bulk transport traveling model to examine various features of the modeling frame- around the south of the island and continuing west, while the work, such as the state estimation (Matthews et al., 2012), North Hawaiian Ridge Current (NHRC) follows the ridge of nested models (Janeković et al., 2013), and the vorticity bud- Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
196 D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System forcing to determine how the model is adjusted. By evalu- ating the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of these in- crements we determine the spatial patterns in the variability. Since physical modes are not always independent (Simmons et al., 1983), the interpretation of EOF modes must be under- taken with some caution. As such the resulting modes will not necessarily represent a physical phenomenon, but will highlight the variable spatial patterns made over time by the I4D-Var algorithm. 2 Numerical model and data assimilation system 2.1 Model configuration The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) version 3.6 is used to simulate the physical ocean around the Hawaiian Figure 1. Model domain and bathymetry, with mean currents la- Islands. ROMS is a free-surface, hydrostatic, primitive equa- beled from Lumpkin and Flament (2013). tion model using a stretched coordinate system in the verti- cal to follow the underwater terrain. In order to allow vary- ing time steps for the barotropic and baroclinic components, ROMS utilizes a split-explicit time stepping scheme (for the other islands in the chain to the north. In the atmosphere, more details on ROMS, see Shchepetkin and McWilliams, there are persistent trade winds from the northeast that, 1998, 2003, 2005). combined with steep mountainous terrain on the islands, The Hawaiian Island domain covers 164–153◦ W longi- cause wind wakes in lee of the peaks, particularly on the tude and 17–23◦ N latitude, with bathymetry provided by the islands of Hawai‘i and Maui. This introduces strong tem- Hawaiian Mapping Research Group (HMRG, 2017), shown perature gradients, increases the seasonal variability (Sasaki in Fig. 1. The grid has 4 km horizontal resolution with 32 and Klein, 2012), and drives currents such as the Hawaiian vertical s levels configured to provide a higher resolution in Lee Countercurrent (HLCC) (Smith and Grubišić, 1993; Xie the more variable upper regions. The configuration model, et al., 2001; Chavanne et al., 2002). including the method for assimilating surface HFRs and the There are two main objectives to this study: to assess the associated vertical stretching scheme, is identical to the one skill and performance of the state-estimation model and to first presented in Souza et al. (2015). analyze the increments made to the initial, boundary, and at- Tidal forcing is produced using the OSU Tidal Prediction mospheric forcing terms. For the first objective, we compare Software (OTPS) (Egbert et al., 1994), which is based on the the state-estimate solution with a free-running forecast over Laplace tidal equations from the TOPEX/Poseidon Global the decadal time period and examine how the performance Inverse Solution (TPXO). Tidal constituents included in this changes over time utilizing observations derived from satel- simulation are the eight main harmonics, M2 , S2 , N2 , K2 , lites and it situ measurements. In addition, PacIOOS operates K1 , O1 , P1 , and Q1 , as well as two long-period and one non- seven high-frequency radar stations sites across the Hawai- linear constituent: Mf , Mm , and M4 . To avoid any long-term ian Islands. The first station was constructed in 2010, with drifting of the tidal phases related to constituents we do not the remaining six becoming operational over the period from consider, the tidal harmonics are updated each year to define 2011 to 2015. These instruments produce high-resolution the phases in terms of the start of that year. (both spatially and temporally) surface current velocities in Lateral boundary conditions are taken from the HYbrid the vicinity of the islands of O‘ahu and Hawai‘i. The use of Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) (Chassignet et al., HFR observations within a state-estimation scheme has been 2007) and are applied daily. Within ROMs, we apply the shown to produce a significantly improved representation of boundary differently for each variable; Chapman (Chapman, surface currents (Souza et al., 2015; Kerry et al., 2016). The 1985) conditions are applied to the free surface, Flather impact of the radar stations will be a key focal point. The (Flather, 1976) conditions for transferring momentum from performance assessment is achieved through the statistics 2-D barotropic energy out of the domain, and 3-D momen- produced by the state estimation in Sect. 3, followed by a tum and tracer variables are clamped to match HYCOM. A comparison with observations in Sect. 4. The forecast skill, sponge layer of 12 grid cells (48 km) linearly relaxes the vis- a measure of the accuracy for a forecast system, is computed cosity by a factor of 4 and diffusivity by a factor of 2 close with reference to a persistence assumption (Sect. 5). to the boundary to account for imbalances between HYCOM Section 6 focuses on the second objective of the paper, to and ROMS. examine the increments to the initial state and atmospheric Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019 www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/
D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System 197 From 2007 to 2009, atmospheric forcing fields (exclud- tation of I4D-Var in ROMS is covered extensively in Moore ing the wind) are provided by the National Center for Envi- et al. (2011a, b, c). ronmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis fields (Kistler et al., 2001). For the wind forcing, a combination of two different 2.2 Experiment setup forcings is utilized: (i) a 1/2◦ resolution CORA/NCEP wind product (Milliff et al., 2004) that combines QuikScat mea- The reanalysis covers a period of 10 years from July 2007 to surements with NCEP wind fields and (ii) the CORA/NCEP July 2017. The period of assimilation for the I4D-Var cycles winds blended with the results from a 1/12◦ resolution is 4 days, which corresponds to the limit of the linearity as- PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5; Yang et al., 2008a) sumption within the domain (Matthews et al., 2011). The at- of the Hawaiian islands (Van Nguyen et al., 2010). The mospheric forcing is adjusted every 6 h, while the boundaries MM5 model was forced at its boundaries with the global are every 12 h. An analysis of these adjustments is performed NCEP fields; hence, it is a consistent dynamical downscal- in Sect. 6. ing of the global fields. The MM5 model domain is smaller During each I4D-Var cycle, a minimization procedure is than the ocean grid domain, extending only to 160.5◦ W in applied. The nonlinear model is first integrated forward to the lee. Therefore, for (ii), we must blend the modeled and estimate the background state (the first outer loop). Then CORA/NCEP winds to generate a consistent field for the en- the tangent-linear and adjoint models are integrated in mul- tire region with 1/12◦ winds where available and 1/2◦ winds tiple inner loops to minimize the cost function (J ). After the everywhere else. last inner loop the nonlinear model is updated (see Fig. 1 To blend the two, we convert the MM5 winds to anoma- of Moore et al., 2011c). Prior methodological experiments lies by subtracting a 30-day mean centered about the record yielded that for our setting a sufficient reduction in J (and of interest. We compute the mean for the same period from an acceptable computational cost) can be achieved using a the CORA/NCEP winds. The difference between the two single outer loop with 13 inner loops (Souza et al., 2015). means provides a bias estimate. The bias is removed from Several 4- and 8-day forecasts are performed from the end the MM5 anomalies and the CORA/NCEP mean is added. of each cycle using the assimilated state as initial conditions, Within a 1◦ box around the boundary of the MM5 data, we and the short-range (1–4 days) and midrange (5–8 days) fore- taper the anomalies to zero with a cosine filter to avoid abrupt casts are evaluated for skill. changes to the field. This step ensures that the mean of the 2.3 Observations CORA/NCEP field is preserved, while its structure and vari- ability is greatly enhanced by the MM5. Observational data used within this study include satellite From July 2009, atmospheric forcing is provided lo- measurements of the ocean surface of temperature, height, cally by a high-resolution Weather Regional Forecast (WRF) and salinity, in situ depth profiles of temperature and salinity, model (WRF-ARW, 2017). WRF supplies information about and surface velocities from high-frequency radar. Observa- surface air pressure, surface air temperature, longwave and tions within one Rossby radius (∼ 80 km) of the domain’s shortwave radiation, relative humidity, rainfall rate, and 10 m boundary are neglected. It should be emphasized that no ob- wind speeds. The ocean model is forced using these data ev- servations were withheld from the assimilation for the pur- ery 6 h, taken from the atmospheric model with 6 km resolu- pose of validation. The I4D-Var method seeks to represent tion across the entire domain. the observations by exploiting the linearized model dynam- Prior to the experiment, a 6-year non-assimilative model ics. Therefore, all available observations are used to constrain was run using the same initial state, boundary conditions, this representation. and atmospheric forcing. The variability of the model is used to produce an estimate of the background error covariances 2.3.1 Satellite-derived measurements used within I4D-Var, as well as the mean sea surface height to use with sea level anomaly observations. Sea surface temperature (SST) observations are available The cost function of the I4D-Var method penalizes for the from two sources at different time periods: initially we used increments made to the initial conditions, the boundary con- the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment High Res- ditions, and the forcing and for the deviations of the model olution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) level 4 OSTIA state from the observations. A detailed derivation of the cost Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature Analysis (Naval function can be found in Kerry et al. (2016), Penenko (2009), Oceanographic Office, 2005), referred to as OSTIA for this Weaver et al. (2003), Stammer et al. (2002), and Talagrand work. The data are distributed by the Physical Oceanogra- and Courtier (1987). To formulate the solution, we must pro- phy Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC) using vide estimates of the uncertainty matrices in both the model optimal interpolation to combine data from the Advanced and observations. The model uncertainty matrix, P, is esti- Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the Advanced mated using the variability of the 6-year run described above, Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR), the Spinning while the observation uncertainty matrix, R, is assumed to be Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), the Ad- diagonal (i.e., observations are independent). The implemen- vanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-EOS (AMSRE), www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/ Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019
198 D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager HOT also conducts regular Seaglider missions departing (TMI), and in situ data. This distribution provides a highly from station ALOHA. In addition, PacIOOS conducts occa- smoothed daily gridded global dataset at the surface at a 6 km sional Seaglider surveys in areas close to the south coast of spatial resolution, accurate between 0.2 and 0.5 ◦ C in the do- O‘ahu. The buoyancy-driven autonomous underwater vehi- main. cles take profiles and transects at depth of temperature and Beginning in April 2008, we switched to using the salinity. GHRSST level 4 K10_SST global 1 m sea surface temper- Observations from the global Argo float network are avail- ature analysis dataset (Naval Oceanographic Office, 2008) able from the Argo array network (USGODAE, 2016). The produced by the Naval Oceanographic Office and referred to free-drifting floats profile temperature and salinity during as- as NAVO for this work. Also distributed by PO.DAAC, this cension and descension every 10 days of depths down to product combines, in a weighted average, data from AVHRR, 2000 m (Oka and Ando, 2004). Argo measurements tend to AMSRE, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental occur in the model domain at a rate of about one to two pro- Satellite (GOES) imager. This distribution provides a daily files per day. gridded global dataset at 1 m of depth at a 10 km spatial res- Representational errors for HOT CTDs, Argo floats, and olution, accurate to 0.4 ◦ C in the domain. Seagliders are defined by the variance of observational data Sea surface height (SSH) observations are derived us- from all available sources across our domain sorted into ing sea level anomaly data from the Archiving, Validation depth bins. These profiles resemble a typical temperature– and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data (AVISO) salinity profile, with a peak temperature error of 0.8 K and delayed-time along-track information. The data come from peak salinity error of 0.15 ppt occurring in the mixed layer at multiple altimeter satellites measuring the anomaly with re- a depth around 100 m. spect to a 20-year mean SSH, homogenized against one of the missions to ensure consistency. Each track has approxi- 2.3.3 High-frequency radar measurements mately 7 km spatial resolution and will usually make multi- ple passes through our domain each day. To convert from sea level anomaly to sea surface height we add the mean SSH HFR measurements of surface currents are available from field taken from the 6-year model run described above, to PacIOOS at seven sites around the Hawaiian islands: five which we add the barotropic tidal prediction from TPXO. around the southwest of O‘ahu and two on the east coast of The accuracy of the swaths depends on the source satellite Hawai‘i. Data are available from the first site in October 2010 and ranges from 5 to 7 cm. We use the AVISO product that with the other sites coming online at various times, the most has been fully filtered and quality controlled until May 2016. recent being October 2015. The range for the HFRs on O‘ahu At the time of the experiment, the delayed time data were un- extend approximately 150 km from the coast, while the two available beyond May 2016, so the near-real-time data were Hawai‘i sites are focused on currents around the northeast of used. the island and have a shorter range. At the range limits, HFR Sea surface salinity (SSS) data are taken from Aquarius data are less reliable due to the higher noise level of the re- mission daily L3 gridded dataset (NASA Aquarius project, turns. Figure 2 shows the percentage availability of data in 2015) distributed by PO.DAAC. The satellite uses a combi- the region. HFR measurements from any return location that nation of radiometers and scatterometers to estimate the sur- is missing more than 20 % of its data over the 4-day assimi- face salinity mapped to a coarse 1◦ resolution. Errors for this lation period are ignored. Both spatially and temporally, the product are around 0.2 ppt. Data for this product are available resolution for all sites is significantly higher than the model from August 2011 until June 2015. resolution. The HFR data are low-pass filtered at 3 h to re- move the high-frequency signals that may not be resolved 2.3.2 In situ measurements by the model (atmospheric forcing fields are every 6 h). We then provide the spatial field of data every 3 h. The associ- Depth profiles of temperature and salinity are obtained ated error is calculated individually for each spatial point as from threes sources: the Hawai‘i Ocean Time-Series (HOT) the accuracy of the measurements is determined by the levels shipboard conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) casts, the of interference, which increases with range. For each obser- global network of Argo floats, and autonomous Seagliders vation point we calculate the power spectral density and cal- operated by the University of Hawai‘i. culate the noise as per Zanife et al. (2003), with a minimum The HOT project conducts monthly cruises to the deep wa- of 7 cm s−1 . At the extreme, errors may reach 17 cm s−1 . ter station ALOHA (A Long-term Oligotrophic Habitat As- The numbers of observations for each 4-day cycle from all sessment; located at 23◦ 450 N, 158◦ 000 W; see Fig. 1) in order sources are shown in Fig. 3. Sea surface temperature mea- to develop continuous datasets of physical and biochemical surements from both OSTIA and NAVO are consistently the ocean parameters. CTD stations of temperature and salinity most available observation source, and by the end of the time are concentrated in the region around the station, although period HFR is supplying a similar quantity. In situ measure- some are also established along the ship route. ments, which include both temperature and salinity for each Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019 www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/
D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System 199 Figure 2. Composite image of percentage coverage for all radar sites (situated at green dots) when all are operational. Where two sites overlap the greater value is taken to indicate the level of coverage at each point. Figure 3. Number of observations used within data assimilation run. Note that there tend to be orders-of-magnitude more satellite or remotely sensed observations than in situ. of the instruments, provide a smaller amount of data by an reduction between the initial and final cost function for each order of magnitude. cycle to assess how the assimilation performs over time. Ad- ditionally, the I4D-Var algorithm reports the individual con- tributions by the state variables considered by the data as- 3 Assimilation statistics similation to the total cost function. Hence we can examine the cost function in detail for those observation types that are In this section we examine the state estimate to quantify the most critical for its reduction. However, it should be noted performance during our time period. that for this decomposition we do not distinguish between observation sources. 3.1 Cost function reduction Figure 4 shows the time series of the total reduction and the percentage reduction in the cost function for each of the I4D-Var minimizes the residuals between the model and ob- variables we observe: sea surface height, temperature, salin- servations over each 4-day cycle. We calculate the percentage www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/ Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019
200 D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System Figure 4. Time series of percentage reduction in the I4D-Var cost function; in the left column are pre-HFR observations and in the right column are post-HFR observations, with the mean value given in parentheses. Dashed lines mark the limit of 0, below which there is no reduction in the cost function for that variable. (a) Total cost function reduction for all observations; (b) sea surface height observations, (c) temperature observations; (d) salinity observations; (e) HFR observations. ity, and HFR. A value of 0 means the final cost function is the The cost function associated with HFR measurements is same as the initial and no reduction has occurred. The plot is reduced by 60 % of the initial value, meaning the model is split into two distinct time periods, before and after the HFR closer to the HFR observations after the assimilation. observations, in order to assess changes in the relative con- tributions of each variable to the overall reduction. 3.2 Optimality The total cost function of all data (Fig. 4a) is on average halved for each cycle, with an improvement from 49 % of the Another measure of performance is the theoretical minimum original value to 55 % when HFR observations are available. value of the cost function (Jmin ). For a linear system and as- Looking at the breakdown in Fig. 4b–e, we see that the fi- suming that the error matrices P and R have been determined nal cost function associated with the other observed variables correctly, Jmin is a chi-squared variable whose degrees of (sea surface height, temperature, and salinity) is reduced by freedom are given by the number of assimilated observations a smaller percentage than before HFR was included. Given (Nobs ) (Bennett, 2002). The expected value of Jmin is then that the structure of the cost function is determined by the given by type and number of observations, this change in contribution Nobs to the cost function reduction can be expected when adding a hJmin i = . (1) 2 large number of HFR measurements to the data assimilation. Salinity measurements tend to contribute the least im- Using above the equation, an optimality value (γ ) can be de- provement, ranging from 34 % (pre-HFR) to 16 % (post- fined: HFR). Salinity data are the least numerous (Fig. 3) and SSS fields taken from Aquarius are subject to high noise levels 2 · Jmin γ= , (2) (0.2 ppt) and coarse spatial resolution. The mid-2014 drop in Nobs cost function reduction for salinity data coincides with the which √ should reach a value of 1 with a standard deviation of loss of two Seagliders. After the cessation of Seaglider mis- 2/Nobs . sions salinity data were only available through Aquarius (un- This optimality value provides a simple representation of til mid-2015) and sporadic Argo profiles. how consistently the error matrices (P and R) are specified, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019 www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/
D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System 201 Figure 5. (a) Gantt chart of remotely sensed observations used in the study. (b) Optimality of I4D-Var data assimilation with the dashed line representing the theoretical minimum. since the error covariances normalize the cost function. Fig- tor Hj , ure 5 shows a time series of the calculated optimality value for the model run, in addition to a timeline of the availabil- djob = yj − Hj (x b ), (3) ity of certain observations for reference. Over the full time period the mean optimality is 0.95. However, there are large and the difference between x b and the analysis value (x a ) significant deviations over the course of the time period. In mapped to the observation location, the pre-HFR period the optimality is low, suggesting that the error bounds on observations are too wide. Since SST is the djab = Hj (x a ) − Hj (x b ), (4) dominant source of observations before HFR, the prescribed one can compute the expected a posteriori background error: errors associated with SST may be too large. Post-HFR, the optimality value increases, suggesting the pi b) = 1 2 X errors in this period are underestimated. A large optimality (σ g i (Hj (x a ) − Hj (x b ))(yj − Hj (x b )), (5) pi j =1 value arises when the cost function is large (i.e., large dif- ferences between the model and observations). There were where i refers to the observation type and pi is the number two anomalous cycles in 2011; the first coincides with the of observations of that type. introduction of a second radar site. From 2012 onwards the Similarly, using the difference between the observation j optimality value is generally good, if highly variable. The in- and the modeled analysis value (x a ) mapped to the observa- crease in optimality given the available observations points to tion, an underestimation of HFR errors or at the least a persistent difference between the model and HFR observations. djoa = yj − Hj (x a ), (6) the expected a posteriori observation error can be calculated: 3.3 Error consistency pi b) = 1 2 X (σ g i (yj − Hj (x a ))(yj − Hj (x b )). (7) The consistency of the assimilation can be assessed by com- pi j =1 paring the error matrices P and R specified a priori with the observation and background error covariances determined a For a detailed description of the above diagnostics the posteriori (Desroziers et al., 2005). Using the difference be- reader is referred to Desroziers et al. (2005, 2009). If the tween the observation j (yj ) and the modeled background variances in P and R are correctly specified a priori, they value (x b ) mapped to the observation location by the opera- will be consistent with the a posteriori errors defined above. www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/ Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019
202 D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System Figure 6. Time series of spatially averaged background (blue) and observation (green) errors, with thick lines showing a priori values and thin lines the posterior calculated using Eqs. (5) and (7). (a) Sea surface height; (b) sea surface temperature; (c) sea surface salinity; and (d) HFR. Figure 6 shows both the a priori and a posteriori errors for This error consistency analysis supports the conclusions in the remotely sensed data. The observation a priori values are Sect. 3.2 that the SST observation errors are overestimated calculated as the mean error of the observations in each cy- and HFR values are underestimated. It is worth noting that cle, while the background a priori values are defined as the these diagnostics are only estimates used to characterize the variability of a free-running nonlinear model. If the a poste- errors and are not the true posterior error. riori errors are typically larger than the a priori, it implies the initial errors in P and R are underestimated. Conversely, if they are smaller the initial errors are likely overestimated. 4 Comparison with observations Figure 6a shows that sea surface height errors are consis- tent, while sea surface temperature, shown in Fig. 6b, sug- Because I4D-Var relies on the model physics to represent ob- gests the a priori errors are overestimated. The a priori obser- servations through time, it should provide better forecasts. vation errors for NAVO SST observations are defined with a Time-invariant methods (3D-Var, optimal interpolation) that minimum error of 0.4 K, but the a posteriori errors are more perturb the state at single times may better reduce the time- typically around 0.25 K. The a priori background errors also fixed cost function, but can add nonphysical structures that appear overestimated. generate noisy forecasts. Sea surface salinity observation errors (Fig. 6c) are slightly In this section, we examine the state-estimate solution by underestimated but generally consistent, as are the back- comparing the model to observations. For reference, the ob- ground errors. The HFR observation errors (Fig. 6d) also servations are also compared against the forecast starting appear to be underestimated, with most a priori errors close from the same time as each state-estimate cycle. The ini- to the minimum value of 7 cm s−1 . The a posteriori errors tial and boundary as well as atmospheric and tidal forcings suggest that a typical value of around 12–15 cm s−1 would are initially the same for both runs; however, the initial and be more appropriate. The a priori background errors are rea- boundary conditions and atmospheric forcing are altered as sonably consistent with the a posteriori; if anything, they are part of the state-estimate solution. slightly overestimated. For comparing fields we use the root mean squared anomaly (RMSA) and the anomaly correlation coefficient Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019 www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/
D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System 203 Figure 7. Time series of root mean squared anomalies (RMSAs) between remotely sensed observations and two model realizations: the state estimate (orange) and the forecast (blue). (a) Sea surface height; (b) sea surface temperature; (c) sea surface salinity; and (d) HFRs. (ACC), defined as nificant impact on the cost function and their representation v may suffer. We seek to identify these results. N u u1 X RMSA(x, y) = t ((xi − x) − (yi − y))2 (8) 4.1 Remotely sensed observations N i=1 and Figure 7 shows the RMSA between the observations and PN the models for each source of remotely observed data. The i=1 (xi− x)(yi − y) state-estimate solution reduces the RMSA compared with the ACC(x, y) = qP , (9) N 2 N (y − y)2 P forecast by 1.58 cm (17 %), 0.07 K (24 %), 0.01 ppt (3 %), i=1 (xi − x) i=1 i and 8.39 cm s−1 (37 %) for sea surface height, sea surface where N is the number of observations and x represents the temperature, sea surface salinity, and HFR, respectively. In model values at the same location and time as the obser- Fig. 7a the RMSA of the state-estimate solution is close to vations y. The RMSA provides a measure of the residual the typical observational error of 7 cm, while in Fig. 7b we between the model and observations, while the ACC deter- see the RMSA is comfortably less than the 0.4 K represen- mines the strength of the relationship between the two. We tative error. Sea surface salinity is only marginally improved can calculate values for a single spatial point throughout time by the state-estimate solution, but is slightly over the pre- or for all spatial points at a single time; however, we require scribed observational error of 0.2 ppt. The RMSA of the cur- at least 20 available observation values to get a representa- rents associated with HFR observations, shown in Fig. 7d, is tive statistic. The gridded satellite products are ideally suited improved greatly by the state estimation; however, the mean to this analysis, while the depth profiles from in situ mea- value of 14 cm is around double the typical error prescribed surements are binned into 50 m depth layers to ensure a min- a priori of 7 cm. As shown in the previous sections, this error imum number of values. Here it must be noted that our val- was underestimated. idation is limited to data that have been employed for the The ACC is also improved by the state estimate for all assimilation. The I4D-Var scheme uses the linearized model variables, as shown in Fig. 8. For sea surface height, temper- dynamics to produce the covariance between the model and ature, and salinity the improvement is small due to a signif- the observations. This allows the model to optimally repre- icant agreement in the forecast with gains of 0.03, 0.02, and sent the observations in time and space rather than replicate 0.01, respectively. The improvement in HFR is much more them. As such, the desire is to use every available observation significant, with an average correlation improvement from to constrain this representation. Unlike time-invariant statis- 0.35 to 0.68. As shown in Fig. 8d the free-running forecast tical methods, we do not withhold any observations because model can diverge from the observations enough to become they are sampling the dynamical subspaces of a system of negatively correlated over a cycle, while the state-estimate unknown dimension. Since the observations covary in space solution is consistently positively correlated. and time, some particular observations may not have a sig- www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/ Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019
204 D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System Figure 8. Time series of anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) between remotely sensed observations and two model realizations; the state estimate (orange) and the forecast (blue). (a) Sea surface height; (b) sea surface temperature; (c) sea surface salinity; and (d) HFRs. Figure 9. Spatial maps of RMSA for SST observation sources for the forecast (a, c) and the state estimate (b, d). (a, b) OSTIA data (2007–2008); (c, d) NAVO data (2008–2017). The typical error of representativeness is around 0.4 K. Figure 9 shows the spatial RMSA between the forecast (Yang et al., 2008b; Matthews et al., 2012). Even in this peak and analyses model solutions and the observations for both area, the state-estimate solution is around the observational sources of sea surface temperature observations: OSTIA and error of representativeness of 0.4 K, meaning the model is NAVO. In both cases there is a clear reduction in the RMSA, performing well with regards to SST. with the largest source of error in the areas leeward of the Both RMSA and ACC between the experiments and HFR islands, most notably the island of Hawai‘i. This is due to observations are shown in Fig. 10 for the island of O‘ahu. higher heat flux variability from a reduction in cloud cover The RMSA of the free-running forecast is reasonably uni- Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019 www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/
D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System 205 Figure 10. Spatial maps of HFR statistics for south O‘ahu for the forecast (a, c) and the state estimate (b, d). (a, b) RMSA; (c, d) ACC. form across the region covered by the HFR, around 20– of improvement from the forecast to the state-estimate solu- 25 cm s−1 , with some varying values around the extent of tion is consistent with the O‘ahu results shown here. the radar coverage. The inclusion of HFR observations in the state-estimate solution leads to significantly reduced values 4.2 Subsurface observations of 12–15 cm s−1 , a reduction of almost half. The ACC is also significantly improved from a weak correlation to a consis- The in situ observation sources are Argo floats, Seagliders, tently strong positive one. and HOT CTDs, which also show an improvement in the As discussed in Souza et al. (2015), there are several state estimate over the forecast. The subsurface temperature reasons the model can differ from surface current observa- RMSA values are reduced by an average of 0.03 K and salin- tions: the discretization of the model, imperfect stratification, ity by 0.01 ppt. The average RMSA is within the represen- differing barotropic-to-baroclinic tide conversion at Kaena tative errors for both variables at 0.8 K and 0.15 ppt, respec- Ridge, or mixing parameters that do not capture the real tively. However, there are several occasions when the RMSA baroclinic mixing. This may lead to a different location of value for a cycle exceeds that limit when there are very few the currents in the model from those observed by the HFR; in situ observations available. however, the model does a good job of reducing these errors Figure 11 shows the RMSA and ACC profiles for tem- (Janeković and Powell, 2012). The HFRs located on the is- perature and salinity for each source of subsurface observa- land of Hawai‘i have a smaller coverage region, but the level tion. For all three sources, the greatest RMSA between the models and observations is along the thermocline where mi- www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/ Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019
206 D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System Figure 11. RMSA (solid) and ACC (dashed) profiles of subsurface temperature (a) and salinity (b) for Argo floats, Seagliders, and HOT CTDs for the forecast (blue) and the state estimate (orange). Data were binned into 50 m intervals. nor differences in thermocline depth lead to temperature dif- 5 Forecast skill ferences. The state estimate improves the RMSA in this re- gion by 10–15 %. The thermocline location is also the source In this section we quantify the model skill by using a skill of the lowest correlation between the observations and the score evaluated as the improvement against a reference field model, which is improved by the state estimate by ∼ 5 %. (Murphy, 1988). For the reference, we take the model value There is a high RMSA for Seagliders at the base of their pro- at the spatial location of each observation at the time of ini- files (close to 1000 m). In this instance the state estimate does tialization for each 8-day cycle and assume persistence of not result in an improvement of the forecast. Many of the this value throughout the 8-day cycle (persistence assump- glider missions operated in the shallow waters off the south tion). The skill score (SS) for the state-estimate analysis and coast of O‘ahu where processes are at much finer scale than forecast is then defined using the ratios of RMSAs with re- can be resolved at 4 km resolution. As such, the observational spect to the observations: representation errors were higher. For subsurface salinity (Fig. 11b), the improvements made RMSA(x a , y) SSa = 1 − , (10) by the state-estimate solution occur almost exclusively above RMSA(x 0 , y) 500 m for Argo floats and HOT CTDs. As with tempera- RMSA(x f , y) ture the largest improvement is at the top of the thermo- SSf = 1 − , (11) RMSA(x 0 , y) cline. There are some low ACC values lower down in the profile between both models and the observations, but both where the superscripts a, f, and 0 refer to the analysis, free- the forecast and state estimate perform equally at this depth. running forecast, and persistence, respectively, and y indi- Seagliders produce the biggest improvement in subsurface cates the observations. Under this measure, a SS of 1 rep- salinity model performance, with the state-estimate solution resents a perfect fit between the model and observations, up to 20 % better than the forecast for both RMSA and ACC. while a value of zero indicates where the model and persis- The peak improvement is at the top of the thermocline, but tence values perform exactly the same. If the model is bet- there are improvements throughout the profile. ter than persistence, then the skill score will lie in the range 0 < SS < 1 and the degree of improvement over persistence is determined by how close to 1 the score is. Conversely, a negative SS means the model is further from the observations than persistence. Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019 www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/
D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System 207 Figure 12. Mean skill metric for remotely sensed observations as a function of forecast length. Solid lines: skill (see Eqs. 10 and 11); dashed lines: standard deviation of skill. (a) Sea surface height; (b) sea surface temperature; (c) sea surface salinity; (d) HFRs; and (e) subsurface temperature. For this verification we wish to examine the effect of fore- initial conditions are used for persistence values and the di- cast length on the skill. Starting with the same initial condi- urnal cycle will move ocean temperatures close to this per- tions as each state-estimate cycle we produce an 8-day fore- sistence value once per day. The state-estimate skill for HFR cast, the length of two state-estimate cycles. The RMSA is has a consistent value of 0.5 regardless of the forecast day, calculated every 3 h for each 8-day forecast, the correspond- while the skill of the free-running forecast decreases within ing state-estimate cycles, and the persistence field from the the first 12 h and is closer to 0.2 for the rest of the forecast pe- start of the forecast. riod. This decrease in skill is driven by the fact that the radials Figure 12 shows the mean SS over all cycles for remotely are dominated by the semidiurnal baroclinic and barotropic sensed observations. For SSH, SST, and HFR, the skill for tides. both the state-estimation and free-running forecast is positive throughout, indicating that both models are successful over persistence in representing those variables. SSS, however, is 6 Analysis of increments close to zero and slightly negative, meaning the models pro- vide no better information than persistence. SST values are During each I4D-Var 4-day window, the initial model field consistently the highest, with a reduction in skill versus per- and time-varying boundary and surface forcings are adjusted sistence for both models once per day. This is expected as to minimize the residuals. The initial condition increments form a single record for each cycle, while the boundary and www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/ Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019
208 D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System Figure 13. EOF1 and PC1 of initial condition increments for temperature, east–west velocity, and north–south velocity (all averaged 0– 100 m) and of forcing perturbations applied to surface heat flux. The EOFs were calculated using the routines described in Dawson (2016). surface forcings are perturbed every time they are applied model grid, the number of records, and the computational to the model. The perturbations applied to the boundary ex- resources available the EOF calculation is limited to a 4- hibit only a minor influence on the model (not shown) due year period, with approximately 1500 records. Several dif- to the mean advection speed (≈ 20 cm s−1 ) and sponge layer ferent periods were examined with no significant differences dampening near the boundaries. We focus our analysis on the in the structure of the modes or their percentage of variance increments of the initial conditions and the surface forcing. explained. The time of day does impact the percentage of Because we are analyzing the increments (rather than variance explained by each mode, most notably for surface the state) to the initial conditions and forcing fields, the heat flux for which the effect of diurnal solar heating occurs. mean increment should be zero (unless there is a bias in However, the overall locations and magnitudes of the peaks the model), and we are looking to examine the variability. and troughs as well as the temporal evolution of PCs do not Over the entire reanalysis period, the mean biases between exhibit significant differences for each time of day, so we the model and observations for the different types are temper- present one of the modes for each considered variable. ature (−0.0048 K), salinity (0.0049 ppt), SSH (−7 mm), and The four key surface forcing terms are surface heat flux, HFR (0.06 cm s−1 ). A consistent pattern or principal compo- surface salinity flux, east–west wind stress, and north–south nent may suggest a repeated correction to account for miss- wind stress. Of these, increments in surface salinity flux are ing or misrepresented physics in the model. quite small compared to their initial value, while increments Over the 10-year reanalysis, there are 917 analysis cycles in surface heat flux (10 %–15 % of initial value) and the wind with 16 surface forcing adjustments (four per day) per cy- stresses (15 %–20 % of initial value) are significant. cle. We calculated the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) For surface heat flux and near-surface temperature, we ob- (Hannachi, 2004) of the increments applied to the forcing and serve that the EOF1 modes represent 63 % and 20.8 % of the the initial conditions to analyze the dominant spatial patterns variability, respectively, with a consistent sign over the re- of the adjustments. gion (Fig. 13). This mode essentially accounts for the bias For each cycle, the initial perturbation of the primary between our ocean model and the WRF atmospheric model model prognostic variables are examined: sea surface height, used to force the surface. Unfortunately, WRF was not inte- temperature, salinity, east–west velocity, and north–south ve- grated loosely coupled to the ROMS using the ROMS SST locity. With the exception of sea surface height, each variable field; rather, it was run using persistent estimates of daily is averaged over the upper 100 m to cover the mixed layer SST during its integration. It must be noted, however, that the depth in the domain (Matthews et al., 2012). The increments monopole structure of the EOF1 does not represent a con- for salinity and sea surface height as a percentage of the ini- stant offset between ROMS and WRF since the actual per- tial conditions are insignificant (< 1 %), while temperature turbation of surface heat flux and increment applied to near- increments (2–10 %) and the two velocity fields (10–20 %) surface temperature are given by the products of the respec- are significant enough to analyze. tive EOF1 and the PC1. As can be seen in the lower panels The assimilation was configured to optimize the surface of Fig. 13, the temporal evolution of the PC1 for both surface forcing increments every 6 h (to avoid overadjustment). The heat flux and near-surface temperature adjustments is domi- time of day potentially impacts forcing variables, particu- nated by high-frequency, nonphysical variance. larly surface heat flux, so we calculate EOFs on the incre- The EOF1 modes of the near-surface velocity increments ments for each of the four distinct times of day they occur explain 26.1 % and 20.8 % of the variance, respectively. Both (00:00, 06:00, 12:00, 18:00 UTC). Due to the size of the modes exhibit a strong impact south of the main Hawaiian Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019 www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/
D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System 209 Figure 14. Spatial EOF patterns and principal components (PCs) of wind stress perturbations for the period prior to the assimilation of HFR measurements (June 2007–September 2010). Islands. The structure of the wind stress curl in this region Flament, 2013) (see also Fig. 1). The EOF1 modes of the results in the spin-up of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies to near-surface velocity increments are responsible for adjust- the north and south of the lee side of each island, respectively ing the state estimate for the significant eddy activity in the (Chavanne et al., 2002). As a consequence, a zone of strong lee of Hawai‘i. current shear is created between the North Equatorial Cur- The EOFs of surface wind stress increments are confined rent and the Hawaiian Lee Counter Current (Lumpkin and to relatively small regions of the model domain (Figs. 14 www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/ Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019
210 D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System Figure 15. Spatial EOF patterns and principal components (PCs) of wind stress perturbations for the period including the assimilation of HFR measurements (January 2011–January 2014). and 15). A significant change occurs after the HFR obser- portant role as a vorticity source to the ocean (Souza et al., vations come online. During the period prior to the availabil- 2015). Hence the adjustment of wind stress in the channels ity of the HFR data (June 2007–September 2010), the wind between the islands is critical for a reliable representation of stress was primarily adjusted in the lee regions where the ocean conditions. The magnitude and sign of the PCs of the winds are forced between islands (e.g., Kaiwi, ‘Alenuihāhā wind stress adjustments for this period are driven by day- Channels, and to a smaller degree over the Kaua‘i Channel; to-day variability (Fig. 14, lower panels). Also, the PCs of Fig. 14). The wind stress curl in these regions plays an im- the east–west wind stress and north–south wind stress are Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019 www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/
D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System 211 largely uncorrelated, aggravating an interpretation of the ad- increments are concentrated in the region south of O‘ahu. justments in terms of a larger-scale atmospheric pattern or The wind stress heavily influences the surface currents and wind stress curl. adjustments are mostly made as a consequence to HFR data. With the integration of the HFR measurements (Octo- Additional analysis reveals that wind stress adjustments in ber 2010), the dominant wind stress increments occur across the channels between the islands dominated the increments the shallow region close to the south coast of O‘ahu (Fig. 15). in the period prior to the radar-based measurements of sur- The first mode for both east–west and north–south wind face currents. stress exhibits a monopole structure adjusting the wind stress The reanalysis has provided the testing for improvements uniformly across the area covered by the HFR and its vicin- to the PacIOOS operational forecast system. The data are be- ity. The second modes have an east–west dipole structure that ing used to update the back catalog available to the public will either increase or decrease the wind stress shear around at http://www.pacioos.hawaii.edu (last access: 22 December the HFR region. Similarly to the pre-HFR period, the PCs 2018) and will influence the future results from daily fore- of the wind stress increments are dominated by day-to-day casts. Analysis of the I4D-Var increments has provided a variability and do not represent a physical mode. greater understanding of the variability in the region and will provide the basis for a move towards ensemble forecasting in the region. 7 Conclusions We have presented a 10-year reanalysis of the PacIOOS Code availability. The specific ROMS Fortran source for this Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System and assessed package is under the MIT license and is available from the performance of the state-estimate solution and free- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1493617 (Powell et al., 2018). running forecasts. Using a time-dependent incremental Model initial conditions and boundary forcing come from the HY- brid Coordinate Ocean Model (http://hycom.org, last access: 22 De- strong-constraint four-dimensional variational data assimila- cember 2018). tion (I4D-Var) scheme, we show that the model represents the observational data well over the time period. The state- estimate solution reduces the RMSA compared to the fore- Data availability. Atmospheric surface forcing and HF radar ob- cast by 3 % (salinity) to 37 % (surface velocities). A limi- servations are distributed through the PacIOOS data portal at tation of the model–observation comparison is given by the http://pacioos.hawaii.edu (last access: 22 December 2018). Satel- fact that in the absence of a sufficient number of independent lite measurements come from two sources; sea surface tempera- observations, only assimilated data could be used for the val- ture and salinity are provided by the Physical Oceanography Dis- idation. tributed Active Archive Centre at http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov (last The largest reduction of the cost function of the state- access: 22 December 2018), and surface height anomalies are pro- estimate solution occurs when minimizing the residuals to vided by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service HFR data, with SST also accounting for a significant im- at http://marine.copernicus.eu (last access: 22 December 2018). In provement. On average, the assimilation achieves the near- situ measurements used are available from three sources: Argo mea- surements through the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment optimal solution; however, the variability is heavily influ- at http://usgodae.org (last access: 22 December 2018), Seaglid- enced by the HFR observations. The analysis suggests that ers through the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technol- the observational errors associated with HFR are too low and ogy at the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa at http://hahana.soest. results could be improved by redefining these errors. This is hawaii.edu/seagliders (last access: 22 December 2018), and CTDs supported by the increase in variability and upward trend of through the Hawai‘i Ocean Time-Series project at http://hahana. optimality towards the end of the time period during which soest.hawaii.edu/hot (last access: 22 December 2018). Reanalysis HFR observations are most numerous. output is produced as 3-hourly snapshots of the 3-D field tem- The increments made by the reanalysis have revealed that perature, salinity, and velocities interpolated onto a z grid from sea surface height and salinity initial conditions are not sig- the native s grid, as well as the 2-D sea surface height field nificantly adjusted by the I4D-Var procedure, whereas tem- for the full time period. These data are archived through the Pa- perature and velocity account for a significant change from cIOOS data server at http://oos.soest.hawaii.edu/thredds/idd/ocn_ mod_hiig.html?dataset=roms_hiig_reanalysis (last access: 22 De- the forecast field. For the atmospheric forcing, surface salin- cember 2018). ity is insignificant, but the adjustments made to surface heat flux and wind stresses alter the forcings by up to 20 %. This corresponds to cost function statistics that point to HFR and Author contributions. DP and BSP designed and conducted the re- temperature as the two dominant observation sources. analysis simulations. All three authors contributed to the analysis The dominant EOF mode for adjustments of surface heat and interpretation of the model results and to writing the paper. flux and near-surface temperature exhibits a monopole struc- ture, indicating a slight bias correction between the ocean and atmospheric model. The leading modes of wind stress www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/195/2019/ Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 195–213, 2019
212 D. Partridge et al.: Hawaiian Island Ocean Forecast System Competing interests. The authors declare that they have no conflict verse model, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 99, 24821–24852, of interest. https://doi.org/10.1029/94JC01894, 1994. Flather, R.: A Tidal Model of the Northwest European Continental Shelf, Mem. Soc. R. Sci. Liege, 10, 141–164, 1976. Acknowledgements. The authors would like to thank the GODAE Hannachi, A.: A Primer for EOF Analysis of Climate Data, Tech. for hosting the Argo observations and the HOT project for CTD and rep., Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, 2004. Seaglider data. The authors would also like to thank Yi-Leng Chen HMRG: Hawaii Mapping Research Group, SOEST, available at: of the University of Hawai‘i Department of Meteorology for the http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/HMRG/multibeam/index.php (last atmospheric model data MM5 and WRF. 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