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QUEENSLAND            i

State Natural Hazard
    Risk Assessment
               2017
QUEENSLAND State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 - Disaster ...
© The State of Queensland (Queensland Fire and Emergency Services) 30th June 2017.
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Thank you
The State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 was a collaborative effort, bringing together the expertise of multiple
stakeholders. QFES would like to thank all the organisations and individuals who assisted us in developing this
document. Particular thanks to the Queensland Police Service, Geoscience Australia, the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology, the Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation, the United Nations
Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Queensland Reconstruction Authority and local governments throughout Queensland.

Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 - Disaster ...
LOCAL TOPIC IDENTIFIER

Foreword

                                                       Queensland’s Disaster Management             If disaster risk exists then action of
                                                       Arrangements (QDMA): Local, District         some kind needs to be taken; the very
                                                       and State. Starting at the local             existence of risk requires that action
                                                       government level, the communication          be taken to at least reduce it and, at
                                                       of risk information between each tier can    the same time, to ensure that new risk
                                                       inform communities and government,           is not created. The success of both the
                                                       emergency services and all emergency         Sendai Framework and of the QERMF will
                                                       management partners in making                be measured against the safety of our
                                                       decisions to prevent, prepare for            communities and whether the impact
                                                       and respond to and recover from              of hazards is reduced substantially
                                                       natural disasters.                           from current projected impacts and
                                                                                                    costings. Meeting this challenge requires
                                                       The information contained in this
                                                                                                    working on three synergistic pathways:
                                                       report, including the hazard specific risk
                                                                                                    preventing the creation of new risk,
                                                       profiles, together with the more detailed
                                                                                                    reducing existing risk, and strengthening
                                                       local and district risk assessments and
Katarina Carroll APM                                                                                resilience. Of course understanding risk        1
                                                       disaster management plans can be used
Commissioner, Queensland Fire and Emergency Services                                                in depth is the starting point and we are
                                                       by stakeholders across government and
                                                                                                    well on our way as this report represents
Disaster events affect the lives of all                practitioners throughout the emergency
                                                                                                    a maturing capability in the identification
Queenslanders and have a significant                   management sector.
                                                                                                    and analysis of natural hazard risk that
impact on the economy and our                          This scope of the 2017 State Natural         will inform the development of risk-
environment. Whether of natural or                     Hazard Risk Assessment includes the          based plans across the multi-tiered
human origin, disasters are becoming                   hazards of Tropical Cyclones, Riverine       QDMA. Risk-based planning is one of the
increasingly extreme and complex,                      flooding, Bushfires, Severe Weather,         cornerstone enablers for the Queensland
exacerbated not only by the effects of                 Earthquakes, Heatwaves and Coastal           community to be better able to prevent,
climate change but also our globally                   Inundation. Tropical Cyclones and            be prepared for, respond to and recover
interlinked economies. There is a need                 Riverine flooding remain the hazards         from natural disasters.
to improve our collective capability to                whose impacts pose the greatest risk
assess and more deeply understand                                                                   I thank all stakeholders for their
                                                       to Queensland.
disaster risk as the first step towards                                                             contribution to the 2017 Queensland
the development of resilience including                The Queensland Emergency Risk                Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and
prevention, preparation, response                      Management Framework (QERMF) was             their continued support and commitment
and recovery planning. This is also                    developed to build on and enhance the        towards our community’s disaster
reflective of the international focus on               risk assessments and plans developed         resilience. I would also like to specifically
understanding disaster risk as priority                by local governments and disaster            thank the Queensland Police Service for
one of the Sendai Framework for Disaster               districts. Therefore, the QERMF is a         partnering with QFES on this initiative,
Risk Reduction 2015-2030.                              holistic disaster risk management            the Queensland Reconstruction Authority
                                                       paradigm to be applied across all levels     for their support and local governments
Queensland is exposed to a range                       of QDMA.                                     for their ongoing cooperation.
of natural hazards which can lead
to significant consequences for our                    The collaborative workshops that             I encourage all Queenslanders affected
communities. Within the last decade                    accompany the risk analysis and              by disaster risk to consider this
we have experienced natural disasters                  the expected outcomes of the                 valuable report and use it to inform the
of a size and scale that are almost                    implementation of the QERMF give rise        management of risks applicable to their
unprecedented; certainly we have                       to a number of significant enhancements      interests and responsibilities.
endured some of the most significant                   to Queensland’s safety. As noted by
events in recent history.                              the United Nations Institute for Disaster
                                                       Risk Reduction, the contemporary
These events reinforce the need to                     international focus represents a shift
understand disaster risk in sufficient                 from managing disasters to managing
detail to meet the community’s needs                   risk; from focusing on disasters to
and communicate appropriate risk                       focusing on risk.
information across the three tiers of
QUEENSLAND State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 - Disaster ...
2

    Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 - Disaster ...
CONTENTS

Table of Contents

Foreword		                                                1     RIVERINE FLOODING                                   57
Table of Contents                                         3        Definition                                       58
                                                              		 The Queensland context                             58
PART A – DISASTER RISK                                        		Potential exposures                                 58
  Global to State                                         5        Drainage Divisions, River Basins
                                                              			 and BOM Flood Gauges                              59
  Introduction                                            6   		Risk analysis                                       60
  International perspective on disaster risk              8        Risk statement                                   61
  World Economic Forum - Global Risks Report 2017        10   		Treatments                                          62
  Understanding disaster risk components                 12   		 References and sources of additional information   62
  The economic cost of disaster to Australia             13
  The Queensland Emergency Risk Management                      COASTAL INUNDATION                                  63
		 Framework                                             14       Definition                                        64
  Queensland’s Disaster Management Arrangements          17   		 The Queensland context                             65
  Queensland’s developing approach                            		Multi-hazard interaction                            66
		 to risk based planning                                18   		Potential exposures                                 66
  Risk Based Planning Equation                           20   		Risk analysis                                       66    3
PART B – QUEENSLAND                                               Risk statement                                    67
                                                              		Treatments                                          68
  The State context                                      23
                                                              		 References and sources of additional information   68
   Geography                                             24
   Queensland’s economy                                  25     HEATWAVE                                            69
   Economic impacts of Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie    27       Definition                                        70
   Queensland’s economic sectors                         28   		 The Queensland context                             70
   Community                                             29   		Multi-hazard interaction                             71
   Queensland’s State Planning Policy                    31   		Potential exposures                                  71
   Queensland’s climate                                  32   		Risk analysis                                       72
   Climate change projections                            37   		Risk statement                                      73
                                                              		 Treatments                                          74
PART C – QUEENSLAND                                           		 References and sources of additional information    74
  State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment                   39
                                                                BUSHFIRE                                            75
   The Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment   40       Definition                                        76
   Developing the State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment   42   		 The Queensland context                             76
  TROPICAL CYCLONE                                       45   		Potential exposures                                 76
		 Definition                                            45       Landsat Fire History 2011-2015 Map                77
		 The Queensland context                                45   		Risk analysis                                       78
		 Tropical Cyclone Heat Map                             47   		Risk statement                                      79
		 Multi-hazard interaction                              48   		Treatments                                          80
		 Potential exposures                                   48   		 References and sources of additional information   80
		 Risk analysis                                         49     EARTHQUAKE                                          81
		Risk statement                                         49   		 Definition                                         82
		Treatments                                             50   		 The Queensland context                             84
		 References and sources of additional information      50   		 Potential exposures                                84
  SEVERE WEATHER EVENT                                   51   		 Earthquake Heat Map                                85
		 Definition                                            52   		Risk analysis                                       86
		 The Queensland context                                52   		Risk statement                                      86
		 Severe Storm Archive Map                              53   		Treatments                                          87
		 Multi-hazard interaction                              54   		 References and sources of additional information   88
		 Potential exposures                                   54
                                                              SUMMARY AND PRIORITIES                                88
		 Risk analysis                                         54
		Risk statement                                         55     Queensland Hazard and Risk Priority Map             90
		Treatments                                             56   		 South-East Queensland inset                        91
		 References and sources of additional information      56
QUEENSLAND State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 - Disaster ...
A              B            C

4

        Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 - Disaster ...
DISASTER RISK        5

       Global to State

A
QUEENSLAND State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 - Disaster ...
A               B              C           GLOBAL TO STATE

    Introduction

    The Queensland Fire and Emergency            A proof-of-concept was assessed at the          Similar to the UNISDR Guidelines,
    Services (QFES) has responsibility           Disaster District level across Queensland       the Queensland Emergency Risk
    under the Queensland State Disaster          in 2016 and this methodology was found          Management Framework is intended to:
    Management Plan to prepare a State           to be effective in the identification of
                                                                                                   •   Provide consistent guidance in
    Natural Hazard Risk Assessment. In           risk and, more specifically, in the
                                                                                                 		    understanding disaster risk that
    addition, all Australian States and          identification of residual risk, for disaster
                                                                                                 		    would act as a conduit for publicly-
    Territories agreed via the Law, Crime and    management planning at and between
                                                                                                 		    available risk information. This
    Community Safety Council to conduct          all levels of government.
                                                                                                 		    approach would also assist in the
    State level risk assessments by 30 June
                                                 In November 2016, the Queensland                		    establishment and implementation
    2017 for collaboration and discussion at
                                                 Disaster Management Committee                   		    of a framework for collaboration
    the national level.
                                                 endorsed the continued development              		    and sharing of information in
    In 2015, QFES researched international       of the Queensland Emergency Risk                		    disaster risk management,
    best practice in natural hazard risk         Management Framework using this                 		    including for risk-informed disaster
    assessment. This research led to the         methodology to facilitate enhanced risk         		    risk reduction strategies and plans.
    development of a methodology that            based planning so that we may better
6                                                                                                  • Encourage holistic risk
    harnesses scientific data relating to each   prevent, prepare for, respond to and
                                                                                                 		 assessments that would provide
    hazard and uses geospatial information       recover from disaster events.
                                                                                                 		 an understanding of the many
    systems to analyse historical and/or
                                                 Concurrently, in 2016 the United                		 different dimensions of disaster
    projected impacts to identify exposures,
                                                 Nations Office for Disaster Risk                		 risk (hazards, exposures,
    vulnerabilities and subsequently risk.
                                                 Reduction (UNISDR) commissioned the             		 vulnerabilities, capability and
    This approach also promotes                  development of guidelines on national           		capacities). The assessments
    sense-checking between scientific data,      disaster risk assessment (NDRA) as              		 would include diverse types of
    mapping and modelling with local             part of a series of thematic guidelines         		 direct and indirect impacts of
    knowledge during the risk analysis stage,    under its “Words into Action” initiative        		 disaster, such as physical, social,
    which is of paramount importance.            to support implementation of the Sendai         		 economic, environmental and
                                                 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction           		institutional.
                                                 2015-2030 (see Figure 1).
                                                                                                 Both of these outcomes may take several
                                                 The guidelines, to which Queensland             years to mature. However, by keeping
                                                 contributed, are the result of the              abreast with scientific and technological
                                                 collaboration between more than                 advancements and by also remaining
                                                 100 leading experts from national               connected at the local level, they are
                                                 authorities, international organisations,       achievable and will produce tangible
                                                 non-governmental organisations,                 enhancements to the safety and
                                                 academia, think tanks and private-sector        resilience of the Queensland
                                                 entities.                                       community.
                                                 They focus on the Sendai Framework’s
                                                 first Priority for Action: Understanding
                                                 Disaster Risk, which is the basis for all
                                                 measures on disaster risk reduction and
                                                 is closely linked to the other three
                                                 Priorities for Action.

    Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 - Disaster ...
preparedness for response and recovery, and thus
engthen resilience
                                                                                                                                THE SENDAI FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
   Targets
                               Substantially increase                  Substantially                      Substantially increase
  stantially reduce
                               the number of                           enhance international              the availability of
aster damage to
                               countries with national                 cooperation                        and access to multi-
  cal infrastructure
                               and local disaster risk                 to developing countries            hazard early warning
   disruption of basic
                               reduction strategies by                 through adequate and               systems and disaster
vices, among them
                               2020                                    sustainable support                risk information and
 lth and educational
                                                                       to complement their                assessments to people
 lities, including
                                                                       national actions for               by 2030
ough developing
  r resilience by 2030                                                 implementation of this
                                                                       framework by 2030
                                       Chart of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
                                                               2015-2030
                                                                                                   Scope and purpose
                                   The present framework will apply to the risk of small-scale and large-scale, frequent and
 ities for Action                  infrequent, sudden and slow-onset disasters, caused by natural or manmade hazards as well
                                             as related environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks.
States at local, national, regional and global levels
                                                 It aimsintothe following
                                                             guide         four priority
                                                                    the multi-hazard     areas. of disaster risk in
                                                                                     management
                                                  development at all levels as well as within and across all sectors
                                Priority 3                                                    Priority 4
k                Investing in disaster risk reduction               Enhancing disaster preparedness for
r risk                      for resilience                                          Expected
                                                                   effective response, and to «Build outcome
                                                                                                      Back
                                                                   Better» in recovery, rehabilitation and
                                                  The substantial reduction ofreconstruction
                                                                                 disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in
  tional,      Public and private investmenttheineconomic,
                                                  disaster     physical,
                                                                Experiencesocial,
                                                                              indicatescultural   and environmental assets of persons, businesses,
                                                                                          that disaster
 o the         risk prevention and reduction through            preparedness needs      communities       and countries
                                                                                          to be strengthened
ction          structural and non-structural measures           for more effective response and                                                                                                                              7
  erence       are essential to enhance the economic,           ensure capacities are in place for
of laws,       social, health and cultural resilience of        effective recovery. Disasters have   Goal
 t, by         persons, communities, countries and their        also demonstrated that the recovery,
   guide,
                                            Prevent new andrehabilitation
               assets, as well as the environment. These
                                                                 reduce existing         disaster riskphase,
                                                                                 and reconstruction       through the implementation of integrated and
  lic and      can be drivers of innovation,inclusive
                                              growth and economic,
                                                                whichstructural,
                                                                        needs to be legal,
                                                                                       prepared social,
                                                                                                  ahead health,
                                                                                                           of the    cultural, educational, environmental,
 address       job creation. Such measures  technological,
                                              are cost-       political
                                                                disaster,and   institutional
                                                                           is an  opportunity to measures
                                                                                                   «Build Back that prevent and reduce hazard exposure
               effective and instrumental toand
                                              savevulnerability
                                                    lives,        to disaster,
                                                                Better»   through increase
                                                                                     integratingpreparedness
                                                                                                  disaster risk     for response and recovery, and thus
               prevent and reduce losses and ensure             reduction measures. Women          and persons
                                                                                            strengthen      resilience
               effective recovery and rehabilitation            with disabilities should publicly lead and
                                                                promote gender-equitable and      Targets
                                                                                                     universally
                                                                accessible approaches during the response
                                          Substantially reduce and   reconstruction     phases                         Substantially increase Substantially                                        Substantially increase
                   Substantially reduce                            Reduce  direct disaster   Substantially reduce
                                                                                                                                      the number of                    enhance international       the availability of
               global disaster           the number of affected economic loss in                         disaster damage to
                                                                                                                                                                       cooperation                 and access to multi-
ding Principles
               mortality by 2030,        people globally by        relation to global                    critical infrastructure      countries with national
                                                                                                                                      and local disaster risk          to developing countries     hazard early warning
               aiming to lower           2030, aiming to lower     gross domestic                        and disruption of basic
                                                                                                                                      reduction strategies by          through adequate and        systems and disaster
               average per 100,000       the average global        product (GDP) by                      services, among them
                                                                                                                                      2020                             sustainable support         risk information and
               global mortality          figure per 100,000        2030                                  health and educational
gagement from all of      Full engagement of all            Empowerment of                                 Decision-making to                                          to complement their         assessments to people
               between 2020-2030         between 2020-2030                                               facilities, including
ciety          compared toState  institutions
                             2005-             of anto 2005-local authorities and
                                         compared                                                          be inclusive
                                                                                                         through            and risk-
                                                                                                                    developing                                         national actions for        by 2030
               2015       executive and     legislative
                                         2015               communities through                            informed
                                                                                                         their           while
                                                                                                                resilience     using a
                                                                                                                           by 2030                                     implementation of this
                               nature at national and                  resources, incentives               multi-hazard approach                                       framework by 2030
                               local levels                            and decision-making
                                                                       responsibilities as
                                                                       appropriate

ng risk     «Build Back Better» for      The quality of global                       Support from developed
 ly
 versus
            preventing the creation      partnership and
            of, and reducing existing, international cooperation
                                                                                                Priorities for Action
                                                                                     countries and partners to
                                                                                     developing countries to
post-       disaster riskThere is a need to
                                         forbe effective,
                                             focused      meaningful
                                                      action within and              be  tailored according
                                                                                     across sectors         to at local, national, regional and global levels in the following four priority areas.
                                                                                                     by States
 d                                       and strong                                  needs and priorities as
                                    Priority 1                                          Priority  2
                                                                                     identified by them                        Priority 3                             Priority 4
                               Understanding disaster risk                      Strengthening disaster risk                   Investing in disaster risk reduction           Enhancing disaster preparedness for
                                                                            governance to manage disaster risk                           for resilience                     effective response, and to «Build Back
                                                                                                                                                                            Better» in recovery, rehabilitation and
                                                                                                                                                                                         reconstruction
                        Disaster risk management needs to be               Disaster risk governance at the national,        Public and private investment in disaster       Experience indicates that disaster
                        based on an understanding of disaster              regional and global levels is vital to the       risk prevention and reduction through           preparedness needs to be strengthened
                        risk in all its dimensions of vulnerability,       management of disaster risk reduction            structural and non-structural measures          for more effective response and
                        capacity, exposure of persons and                  in all sectors and ensuring the coherence        are essential to enhance the economic,          ensure capacities are in place for
                        assets, hazard characteristics and the             of national and local frameworks of laws,        social, health and cultural resilience of       effective recovery. Disasters have
                        environment                                        regulations and public policies that, by         persons, communities, countries and their       also demonstrated that the recovery,
                                                                           defining roles and responsibilities, guide,      assets, as well as the environment. These       rehabilitation and reconstruction phase,
                                                                           encourage and incentivize the public and         can be drivers of innovation, growth and        which needs to be prepared ahead of the
                                                                           private sectors to take action and address       job creation. Such measures are cost-           disaster, is an opportunity to «Build Back
                                                                           disaster risk                                    effective and instrumental to save lives,       Better» through integrating disaster risk
                                                                                                                            prevent and reduce losses and ensure            reduction measures. Women and persons
                                                                                                                            effective recovery and rehabilitation           with disabilities should publicly lead and
                                                                                                                                                                            promote gender-equitable and universally
                                                                                                                                                                            accessible approaches during the response
                                                                                                                                                                            and reconstruction phases

                                                                                                    Guiding Principles
                   Primary responsibility        Shared responsibility    Protection of persons      Engagement from all of               Full engagement of all       Empowerment of               Decision-making to
                   of States to prevent          between central          and their assets while     society                              State institutions of an     local authorities and        be inclusive and risk-
                   and reduce disaster           Government and national  promoting and protecting                                        executive and legislative    communities through          informed while using a
              Figure 1
                   risk, including through       authorities, sectors     all human rights including                                      nature at national and       resources, incentives        multi-hazard approach
                   cooperation                   and stakeholders as      the right to development                                        local levels                 and decision-making
              The Sendai Framework              for   Disaster
                                                 appropriate       Risk Reduction (2015-2030) is an international
                                                              to national                                                                                              responsibilities as
                                                 circumstances                                                                                                         appropriate
              accord on disaster risk reduction endorsed by the UN General Assembly in June 2015.
                           Coherence of disaster  Accounting of local and  Addressing underlying risk «Build Back Better» for The quality of global                                 Support from developed
              Source: United  Nations Office for Disaster
                           risk reduction and
                                                             Risk Reduction
                                                  specific characteristics
                                                                                (www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/sendai-framework)
                                                                           factors cost-effectively   preventing the creation partnership and                                       countries and partners to
                               sustainable development         of disaster risks when  through investment versus         of, and reducing existing,   international cooperation     developing countries to
                               policies, plans, practices      determining measures to relying primarly on post-         disaster risk                to be effective, meaningful   be tailored according to
                               and mechanisms, across          reduce risk             disaster response and                                          and strong                    needs and priorities as
                               different sectors                                       recovery                                                                                     identified by them

                   www.preventionweb.net/go/sfdrr
                   www.unisdr.org
                   isdr@un.org
QUEENSLAND State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 - Disaster ...
A             B               C               GLOBAL TO STATE

    International perspective on disaster risk

    The Global Facility for Disaster Risk             Another consistent international theme is     Successful risk assessments produce
    Reduction (GFDRR) identifies the three            that the foundation for effective disaster    information that is targeted,
    key global factors influencing the                risk management lies in understanding         authoritative, understandable and
    manifestation and impact of natural               the hazards, the exposure and the             usable. This can only be achieved
    hazard risks as population growth,                vulnerability of people, assets and           if the process of creating and using risk
    urbanisation and climate change.                  environment to those hazards.                 information is transparent and if there
                                                      Governments, communities and                  is communication and collaboration
    To assist the development of community
                                                      individuals can make much better              among all involved parties: scientists,
    resilience, the GFDRR notes that the
                                                      informed prevention decisions by              engineers, decision makers,
    international community needs to
                                                      appropriately identifying risks and           governmental authorities and
    prioritise disaster risk assessment
                                                      anticipating the potential impacts            community representatives.
    methodology that directly informs
                                                      of hazards.
    collective planning with accurate and                                                           A risk assessment that embraces these
    actionable risk information.                                                                    elements enables the identification and
                                                                                                    development of information useful for
                                                                                                    risk mitigation.
8

     Figure 2
     The WorldRiskIndex and its components identify the potential vulnerabilities of countries to
     natural hazards.

     Source: WorldRiskReport (www.weltrisikobericht.de/english)

    Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
WORLD RISK INDEX MEASURES AND VULNERABILITIES

From a public policy perspective, risk           It is the potential vulnerability of             Australians also enjoy more
information can be sensitive information         communities that forms the basis for             comparatively stable economic and
as it requires government, private sector,       the WorldRiskIndex which calculates              political systems which afford more
community and the individual to decide           the disaster risk for 171 countries by           options toward resilience.
on action (or inaction) to reduce the            multiplying vulnerability with exposure
impacts of potentially hazardous events.         to natural hazards.
The chance of risk information translating       According to the WorldRiskIndex,
into action, then, depends to a large            Australia rates as ‘low’ on a global scale,
extent on sensitive negotiations between         despite our reasonably high level of
government and affected communities.             exposure to natural hazards. Our rating
                                                 is partly due to the global comparisons
Humans can only influence to a degree
                                                 of population sizes and rates of poverty
whether, and with what intensity,
                                                 in less developed countries (where many
natural events impact our communities.
                                                 hundreds of thousands of people may
However, we can take precautions to
                                                 experience significant vulnerability and
help prevent the manifestation of a                                                                                                     9
                                                 risk from natural hazards with relatively
natural phenomenon from becoming a
                                                 little means of assistance per head of
disaster event.
                                                 population).

  Figure 3
  The WorldRiskIndex map shows the disaster risk for 171 countries by multiplying vulnerability
  with exposure to natural hazards.

  Source: WorldRiskReport (www.weltrisikobericht.de/english)
A                            B                           C                           GLOBAL TO STATE

                    World Economic Forum – Global Risks Report 2017

                    The World Economic Forum Global Risks                                                    These risks are categorised into five                                                    This year, environmental concerns are
                    Report 2017 features perspectives from                                                   areas: economic, environmental,                                                          more prominent than ever, with all five
                    nearly 750 experts on the perceived                                                      geopolitical, societal and technological.                                                risks in this category assessed as being
                    impact and likelihood of 30 prevalent                                                                                                                                             above average for both impact and
                                                                                                    During the past decade, a cluster of
                    global risks and 13 underlying trends                                                                                                                                             likelihood.
                                                                                                    environment-related risks – notably
                    that could amplify them or alter their
                                                                                                    extreme weather events and failure            Extreme weather events have risen to be
                    interconnections over a 10-year
                                                                                                    of climate change mitigation and              the number one global risk in 2017 with
                    timeframe.
                                                                                                            Figure
                                                                                                    adaptation       2: The
                                                                                                                 – have      Evolving
                                                                                                                        emerged   as a Risks Landscape,  2007-2017
                                                                                                                                                  major natural  disasters being recorded
                                                                                                    consistently  central feature of the
                                                                                             Figure 2: The Evolving Risks Landscape, 2007-2017    as the third highest.
                                                                                                    global risk landscape.
                             Figure 2: The Evolving Risks Landscape, 2007-2017
                                                                       Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood
             Figure 2: The Evolving Risks Landscape, 2007-2017
                                                       Top 5 Global Risks in Terms2007
                                                                                    of Likelihood     2008            2009                                                                                                                                     2010                           2011
 Figure 2: The Evolving2014
                        Risks Landscape, 2007-2017 2015           2007              2008of
                                                                              Breakdown    2016 Asset price
                                                                                                       2009            2010
                                                                                                                Asset price                                                                                                                   2017     2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Asset price                              Storms2012and
                                                                        Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood
                                                                                                              1st                               critical information              collapse                          collapse                            collapse                         cyclones
                                                                                              2007              2008
                                                                                                               Breakdown           of             Asset
                                                                                                                                                   2009 price
                                                                                                                                                infrastructure                       2010 price
                                                                                                                                                                                    Asset                               2011 price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Asset                              2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Storms and                      2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Severe inco
                                     Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood                     1st         critical information               collapse                          collapse                           collapse                           cyclones                        disparity
me10          Top 5
                         Income disparity
                         Global Risks in Terms        2007
                                                            of Likelihood       2008 of
                                                                          Breakdown        Interstate conflict
                                                                                                       Asset    price
                                                                                                             2009
                                                                                                               infrastructure             Asset2010price    Large-scale     Asset 2011
                                                                                                                                                                                     price                      Breakdown
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2012and
                                                                                                                                                                                                               Storms         Extreme weather
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             of critical information
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Severe infrastructure
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2013  income                     2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Severe    income
                                                                 1st      critical information         collapse                                 Chronic disease collapse
                                                                                                                                          collapse                                Middle East                       Slowing Chinese disparity
                                                                                                                                                                                                               cyclones                                 Slowing Chinese disparity        Flooding
                                 2007          Breakdown    2008
                                                              of       Asset    price2009
                                                                          infrastructure   with regional
                                                                                                    Asset price2010                2nd          in developed
                                                                                                                                       Asset price     2011
                                                                                                                                                countries
                                                                                                                                                            involuntary  Storms   instability
                                                                                                                                                                               Breakdown
                                                                                                                                                                                    and2012                 Severeeconomy
                                                                                                                                                                                              of critical information income  events
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2013 (
GLOBALRISKS REPORT 2017

Figure 3: The The
              Global RisksRisks
                  Global   Landscape 2017 2017
                                Landscape
               What is the impact and likelihood of a range of global risks?

                                                                                                                            11
      Impact

               Likelihood

       Figure 5
       The World Economic Forum Global Risks Report maps the perceived impact and likelihood of
       30 prevalent global risks.

       Source: World Economic Forum (www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2017)
A               B                C               GLOBAL TO STATE

     Understanding disaster risk components

     The international review of disaster                Queensland’s methodology embodies         The Sendai Framework for Disaster
     risk methodologies by the UNISDR in                 this approach to understanding disaster   Risk Reduction 2015 – 2030 marks a
     2017 noted that the conceptualisation               risk.                                     crucial shift from managing disasters
     of disaster risk has undergone a                                                              to managing disaster risk. The UNISDR
     transformation.                                                                               noted that the long term benefits of
                                                                                                   risk informed disaster risk reduction
     The UNISDR observed the use of the
                                                                                                   strategies and plans significantly
     classic disaster risk concepts, which
                                                                                                   outweigh the initial outlay costs of
     describe risk in terms of likelihood and
                                                                                                   conducting risk assessments. The
     consequence, however further stated
                                                                                                   UNISDR further noted that the financial
     that, in order to identify and evaluate
                                                                                                   cost of conducting risk assessment is
     the best measures for reducing risk,
                                                                                                   marginal to the total cost of the impacts
     an assessment should also analyse
                                                                                                   of disasters.
     hazard, exposure, vulnerabilities and
     capacities, as well as the direct and
     indirect impacts.
12

     Figure 6
     UNISDR’s Understanding disaster risk model; comprehensive understanding of disaster risk
     empowers effective and inclusive disaster risk management.

     Source: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (www.unisdr.org)

     Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
DISASTER RISKS AND ECONOMIC COSTS TO AUSTRALIA
                                                                                                    This report finds that in 2015, the total economic

Natural disasters affect all states and                                                             cost of natural disasters in an average year– including
                                                                                                    tangible and intangible costs – exceeded $9 billion,

territories
The economicin cost
               Australia.   They
                    of disaster    have an
                                to Australia
                                                                                                    which is equivalent to about 0.6% of gross domestic
                                                                                                    product (GDP) in the same year. This is expected to

enormous impact on people, the                                                                      almost double by 2030 and to average $33 billion
                                                                                                    per year by 2050 in real terms (Chart ii), even without

environment and our communities
The Australian Business Roundtable
for Disaster Resilience and Safer
                                                      Comprehensive information on all costs
                                                      of natural disasters is required to
                                                                                                    consideringThe  the work    of the
                                                                                                                         potential     Australian
                                                                                                                                     impact          Business
                                                                                                                                            of climate
                                                                                                                   Roundtable has highlighted, where data
                                                                                                                                                          change.

Communities’ The economic cost of the                 understand the full impact of naturalClearly comprehensive   allows, theinformation
                                                                                                                                  intangibleon    all costs
                                                                                                                                               costs        of natural
                                                                                                                                                       of natural
                             In Australia,
social impact of natural disasters 2016     natural  disasters   have    incurred  billions
                                                      disasters on our communities and              disasters  is required    to understand
                                                                                                                   disasters and found that:the   full impact  of
                             of dollars  in
report states that the true cost of natural tangible   costs   to  individuals,  businesses
                                                      economy and to also understand the
                                                             1                                      natural  disasters   on   our communities   and    economy   and;
                                                                                                                      • Natural disasters can have a
disasters is at least 50% greater  than
                             and governments.         extent to which expenditure on                to also  understand      the extent to which   expenditure
                                                                                                                   		 devastating impact on individuals,          on
previous estimates when the cost of                   mitigation and resilience measures            mitigation    and  resilience  measures  is effective.
                                                                                                                   		 families, local communities,
                             Beyond the known economic costs, it is well recognised
social impacts is incorporated.                       is effective.                                                		 businesses and governments.
                             that natural disasters have wide-ranging social impacts
When both tangible and intangible      costs
                             that are not   only highMultiple     Australian
                                                        in immediate      impact,Business
                                                                                  but oftenRoundtable              		 In particular, the social impacts
                                                                                                    Chart i: Breakdown of costs between reports
are included, estimates are persist
                              that the    the rest of reports
                                     fortotal          people’s(as    listed
                                                                 lives.      onthere
                                                                          While   pageis 21) outline the           		 are complex, interrelated and
economic cost of natural disasters    in evidenceprojected
                             considerable                           costs ofour
                                                        of social impacts,     natural              Other
                                                                                          disasters and
                                                                                   knowledge                       		 difficult to quantify.
                                                                                                    intangible
Australia in 2015 would haveofexceeded
                                their economic cost   indicate    thatunderstood.
                                                         is not well     investment in resilience                     • There is clear evidence social
$9 billion, or 0.6% of GDP.                           measures may reduce the costs of                             		 impacts account for a substantial
                             Where data permits, this report identifies and
                                                      disaster relief and recovery by more                         		 part of the total economic cost of
This is expected to double by   2030 and
                             quantifies   the social impacts of natural disasters,
                                                      than 50% by 2050.                                            		natural disasters.
to reach an average of $33 billion   perthose on health and wellbeing, education,
                             including                                                              Deaths                                                               13
year by 2050 without considering     the and communityThis estimate       doesWhen
                                                                                not include less    and  injuries     • Placing a monetary value, where
                             employment                          networks.
potential impact of climate change.                   visible   and   intangible    costs   such as Tangible       		 possible, on these social impacts
                             considered alongside the tangible costs highlighted in
                                                                                                                   		 will assist in better understanding
                             Building our Nation’sincreased
                                                        Resiliencemental      health
                                                                     to Natural         issues, family
                                                                                  Disasters
                                                      violence,     alcohol   consumption,      chronic            		 the total economic cost of natural
                             (2013), a much richer picture emerges of the total
                                                      and   non-communicable           diseases   and              		 disasters and thereby strengthen
                             economic cost of natural disasters to Australia.
                                                      short term unemployment.                                     		 the case for building individual
                                                                                                            Building our Nation’s Resilience This report
                                                                                                                   		 and community resilience.
                                                                                                                to Natural Disasters (2013)

1. In line with the
  Productivity Commission
  report, costs in this report
  are defined as:
• Direct tangible costs:
                                  Chart ii: 2015–50 forecast of the total economic cost of natural disasters, identifying costs for each state
  those incurred as a result
  of the hazard event and            $bn (2015 prices)
  have a market value              40
  such as damage to
  private properties and           35
  infrastructure
• Indirect tangible costs:         30
  the flow-on effects that
  are not directly caused          25                                                                                                                       ■ TAS
  by the natural disaster                                                                                                                                   ■ ACT
  itself, but arise from the       20
  consequences of the                                                                                                                                       ■ NT
  damage and destruction           15                                                                                                                       ■ SA
  such as business and
                                                                                                                                                            ■ WA
  network disruptions              10
• Intangible costs: capture                                                                                                                                 ■ QLD
  direct and indirect                                                                                                                                       ■ VIC
                                    5
  damages that cannot be
  easily priced such as death                                                                                                                               ■ NSW
  and injury, impacts on            0
  health and wellbeing, and         2015             2020            2025           2030            2035            2040            2045            2050
  community connectedness.        Source: Deloitte Access Economics analysis

12

Figure 7
The Australian Business Roundtable has forecast the total economic cost of natural disasters
to Australia to highlight the need for a holistic strategy.

Source: The Australian Business Roundtable: The economic cost of the social
impact of natural disasters report, 2016 (www.australianbusinessroundtable.com.au)
A              B                 C          GLOBAL TO STATE

     The Queensland Emergency Risk Management Framework

     Even though substantial challenges             The Queensland Emergency Risk                 In addition to meeting the above
     remain in fully assessing disaster risk,       Management Framework (QERMF) is               international and national standards,
     significant progress across multiple           underpinned by this multidisciplinary         the QERMF also upholds international
     areas has occurred, including:                 approach, uniting international and           best practice as championed by the
       • hazard data and models for                 Australian best practice, the strategic       UNISDR and the Global Facility for
     		 identifying and analysing risk              direction of world risk management            Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR)
     		 have grown in number and                    leaders and using operational                 and seeks to literally enact the Sendai
     		accessibility                                geospatial intelligence to undertake          Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction’s
                                                    exposure and vulnerability analysis           “Priorities for Action”.
       • risk data and mapping are
                                                    which can directly inform the State’s
     		 increasingly being made freely                                                            The QERMF also recognises the
                                                    multitiered disaster management
     		 available to users as part of a                                                           relevant elements within the
                                                    arrangements and planning.
     		 larger global trend toward                                                                Emergency Management Assurance
     		open data                                    The QERMF derives risk methodology            Framework (EMAF) as published by
       • there is a deeper understanding            from:                                         the Office of the Inspector-General
     		 – on the part of governments as               • ISO 31000:2009 Risk management            Emergency Management, Queensland.
14
     		 well as development institutions            		 – Principles and guidelines                The QERMF applies analysis techniques
     		 such as the World Bank – that                 • SA/SNZ HB 436: 2013 Risk                  from the field of geospatial intelligence
     		 disaster risk management                    		 management guidelines –                    to conduct broad area/geographic
     		 requires many partners working              		 companion to AS/NZS ISO                    assessments. This intelligence
     		 cooperatively and sharing                   		31000:2009                                  comprises relevant environmental,
     		information.                                                                               built, community and hazard information
                                                      • SA/SNZ HB 89:2013 Risk
                                                    		 management – Guidelines on risk            to gain a true appreciation and create
                                                    		assessment techniques                       a comprehensive profile of risk.
                                                      • AS/NZS 5050: 2010 Business                This approach also makes risk
                                                    		 continuity – Managing disruption           assessments a fundamental enabler
                                                    		related risk                                for effective pre impact analysis and
                                                      • National Emergency Risk                   planning within disaster operations.
                                                    		 Assessment Guidelines (Australian
                                                    		 Emergency Management Institute,
                                                    		2015).

                                                                Sendai Framework
                                                           for Disaster Risk Reduction
                                                                   2015 - 2030

                                                                                              1

     Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND EMERGENCY RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

The ability to develop, access and
use geospatial data, information and
knowledge is essential to providing
the most cohesive representation of
exposure, vulnerability and risk.
As geospatial information is managed
and coordinated by various agencies,
cooperation and communication is vital.                            Q U E E N S L A N D E ME R G E N C Y
                                                          RI S K MA N A G E ME N T F R A ME W O R K ( Q E R MF )
The multidisciplinary approach that
underpins the QERMF directly informs the                  RISK ASSESSMENT
identification of risk treatment options
that fall into two broad categories:
                                                         PROCESS HANDBOOK
  • Proactive approaches involving                  Prepared by Emergency Management Readiness Unit, State Operational Coordination Branch,
                                                                           Queensland Fire and Emergency Services

		 prevention and preparedness
		 measures which may influence                                                                                                                                                                  15
		 the potential and/or scale of
		disruptive events.
  •   Contingency plans and contingent
		    capability (response) to minimise                                                                            DISCLAIMER

		    the impact of potentially disruptive               This document was produced by the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, State Operational Coordination Branch. This
                                                         document, and all intellectual property contained within, is copyright (2017) of the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services and
                                                         remains in the control of the Director, State Operational Coordination Branch. The document and/or its contents are to be used for

		    events. Development of
                                                         emergency management purposes only and are not to be disseminated to a third party, for any purpose whatsoever, without the prior
                                                         consent of the Director, State Operational Coordination Branch. If this document and/or its contents becomes or appears likely at any
                                                         time to become subject of any writ, subpoena, right to information action, or any other legal process, then the Director, State
                                                         Operational Coordination Branch is to be advised immediately.

		    contingency plans and contingent
		    capability can assist to reduce and    Figure 8
		    stabilise the impacts of events,
                                             Queensland’s Emergency Risk Management Framework embraces leading industry standards,
		    restore and expedite restoration       pictured below, and is further detailed in the Risk Assessment Process Handbook, shown above.
		    of normalcy (recovery).                Sources (below, l to r):
                                             www.preventionweb.net/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf
                                             www.iso.org/standard/43170.html
                                             www.aidr.org.au/media/1489/handbook-10-national-emergency-risk-assessment-guidelines.pdf
                                             www.igem.qld.gov.au/assurance-framework/Documents/IGEM-EMAF.pdf#search=EMAF

  HANDBOOK 10
  National Emergency Risk Assessment
  Guidelines                                                                                         Emergency
                                                                                                     Management
                                                                                                     Assurance Framework
A             B             C            GLOBAL TO STATE

16

     Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND’S DISASTER MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENTS

Queensland’s Disaster Management Arrangements

The Australian Emergency Management           management through regular reviews                Centre (SDCC) sit at the State level.
Arrangements are formed around three          and assessments of disasters which, in            The SDCC is an operational venue for
levels of government: Local, State and        turn, enables the Local Government to             the provision of State level support to
the Australian Government.                    develop its Local Disaster Management             disaster management operations.
                                              Plan (LDMP).                                      The most senior level of committee is
The Queensland Disaster Management
                                                                                                the Queensland Disaster Management
Arrangements acknowledge these three          A District Disaster Management Group
                                                                                                Committee (QDMC). Part of the QDMC
levels of government and also include         (DDMG) is established for each Disaster
                                                                                                function is to ensure effective disaster
an additional tier between Local and          District. Part of a DDMG’s function is to
                                                                                                management is developed and
State Governments – known as Disaster         develop effective disaster management
                                                                                                implemented for the State through
Districts.                                    for the District, including a District
                                                                                                preparation and regular review of the
                                              Disaster Management Plan (DDMP).
The Disaster Management Act 2003                                                                State Disaster Management Plan (SDMP)
                                              This plan is developed through regular
denotes that Local Governments are                                                              and to also provide strategic direction
                                              review and assessment of the disaster
primarily responsible for managing                                                              during disaster events.
                                              management of the Local Governments
events in their area and must establish
                                              within their District and their LDMPs.
a Local Disaster Management Group                                                                                                          17
(LDMG). Part of an LDMG’s function is         The State Disaster Coordination Group
to improve and foster effective disaster      and the State Disaster Coordination

NATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS                                                                                          STATE ARRANGEMENTS
                                                                     Local
                                                                    Disaster
Local Government                                                Management Group                                                  Local
                                                                  Local Disaster
                                                                Coordination Centre

                                                        District Disaster Management Group                                      District
                                                        District Disaster Coordination Centre
State Government

                                                    Queensland Disaster Management Committee                                      State
                                                         State Disaster Coordination Centre

                                                          Attorney-General’s Department
Australian Government
                                                  Australian Government Crisis Coordination Centre

Figure 9
Queensland’s Disaster Management Arrangements comprise four tiers, including
a Disaster District array for improved efficiency and effectiveness.

Source: www.disaster.qld.gov.au
A             B              C              GLOBAL TO STATE

     Queensland’s developing approach to risk based planning
     – the Queensland Emergency Risk Management Framework

     The Queensland Emergency Risk                    The model below (Figure 10) depicts     Assessing risk using this methodology
     Management Framework (QERMF) is                  the overarching risk based planning     assists in:
     underscored by multiple, standardised            methodology within the QERMF. This        • gauging the probability that
     and integrated tools that assist in              model shows the four clear steps to     		 a hazard may manifest
     identifying, assessing, analysing and            ensuring the identification, analysis
                                                                                                • using geospatial analysis to
     managing risk.                                   and management of risk.
                                                                                              		 determine where the hazard
     The successful foundation for disaster           This methodology provides a             		 may manifest and what key
     risk management lies in clearly                  comprehensive and systematic            		 local elements could be exposed
     identifying and understanding the                approach to ensure that all potential   		 to that hazard; geospatial broad
     level of exposure and vulnerability to           risks are identified via exposure and   		 area analysis also enables a
     a community and its assets against               vulnerability analysis which directly   		 more strategic overview to
     particular hazards.                              informs risk based planning.            		 be conducted to directly observe
                                                                                              		 interconnectedness of Local
                                                                                              		 or District areas as well as the
                                                                                              		infrastructure systems
18

     Figure 10
     The Queensland Emergency Risk Management Framework’s Approach integrates
     a range of assessment elements to assist in risk based planning.

     Source: Queensland Fire and Emergency Services

     Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND’S EMERGENCY RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

  • evaluating the effect of a hazard        A wealth of information is available          Risk treatment strategies
		 manifesting, based on the                 within Local Governments, via State           and residual risk
		 assessment of the severity of             Government departments such as the
		 exposure and the level                    Department of Science, Information            When identifying risk treatment
		of vulnerability                           Technology and Innovation and the             strategies, it is important to prioritise
                                             Department of Natural Resources and           responses to inform decisions about
  • informing risk prioritisation,
                                             Mines, or from national sources such as       what is to be done, when and by whom.
		 treatment, resource allocation
                                             Geoscience Australia and the Australian       This requires understanding of attributes
		 and planning, and measuring this
                                             Bureau of Meteorology. Multiple               such as urgency, controllability and
		 against the capability and capacity
                                             research institutions from the tertiary       response effectiveness to execute the
		 to manage the identified
                                             and corporate sector can also provide         actions effectively and in a timely
		vulnerabilities.
                                             valid, recognised and credible data.          manner to make the best use of
The processes shown within Step 1                                                          available resources. Once treatment
Context in Figure 10 establish the context   Once overlaid onto the natural and            of risk measures have been identified,
using a layering approach that includes      built environment, geospatial analysis        planned or put into place, it is important
the natural environment such as              indicates exposures which, when               to then consider the residual risk.           19
geomorphology, demography and                investigated further, may give rise to
                                             specific vulnerabilities and therefore        Residual risk is the risk that is beyond
the built environment. It is particularly
                                             lead to the identification of risks. This     the capability and/or capacity of the
important to also identify critical and
                                             process must be sense-checked against         Local or District community or
essential infrastructure networks
                                             local knowledge, ideally with local           communities and existing disaster
during this stage.
                                             representatives involved in the collection    management plans to treat or mitigate.
The majority of this information can         and analysis of the relevant information.     Residual risk must either be accepted
be displayed in geospatial layers as
                                             Step 3 Risk analysis formalises the           as tolerable or should be transferred to
developing a shared understanding of
                                             analysis process and reviews existing         and/or shared across the next level of
the interconnectedness of infrastructure
                                             controls including capability and             the disaster management arrangement
within the area of interest is a precursor
                                             capacity at the respective level              (upon consultation).
to commencing the actual risk
assessment process.                          (Local, District or State).                   This will allow for the residual risk to be
                                             This in turn identifies residual risk –       understood and treatment or mitigation
It is also important for sites or areas
                                             the risk that remains in unmanaged form,      measures and plans to be developed as
important to the communities, that may
                                             even if controls are in place, and is the     per the Risk Based Planning Equation
not necessarily be infrastructure, to be
                                             key to risk-based planning.                   shown in Figure 11 on the following pages.
identified in these layers. Identifying
what is of value to communities, such        Step 4 Risk-based planning aims to
as areas of cultural significance, and       determine and implement the most
therefore what they would want to            appropriate actions to treat (control
protect or prioritise for mitigation is      or mitigate) the identified risks at the
also very important.                         respective level as well as to address
Step 2 Hazard analysis, focuses on how       the residual risk between levels. These
hazards manifest and their interaction       actions typically comprise both short
with the natural and built environments,     and longer term strategies to address
as identified in Step 1.                     immediate impacts and the resultant
                                             ongoing issues.
Collecting hazard specific data via
scientific studies and historical analysis
is essential.                                  Residual risk
                                               The risk that remains in unmanaged form, even when effective disaster risk
                                               reduction measures are in place, and for which emergency response and
                                               recovery capacities must be maintained.
                                               Source: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
A            B               C              GLOBAL TO STATE

     Risk Based Planning Equation

     Figure 11
     The Risk Based Planning Equation shows the
     interrelatedness and passage of residual risk between
     the three levels of Queensland’s Disaster Management
     Arrangements as well as the linkage to the Australian
     Government if support is required.

     Source: Queensland Fire and Emergency Services

20

     Sources of information

     Global disaster risks
     •   The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
         (2015-2030): www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/
         sendai-framework                                          Provision of State resources
     •    The WorldRiskIndex: www.weltrisikobericht.de/            and support services as required/requested
         english
     •   The World Economic Forum Global Risks Report:
         www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2017
                                                                   Provision of State resources
     Understanding disaster risk components                        and support services as required/requested
     •   UNISDR – Words into Action Guidelines Governance
         System, Methodologies, and Use of Results 2017,
         Consultative version: www.unisdr.org

     The economic cost of disaster to Australia                    Provision of Australian Government resources
     Australian Business Roundtable reports:                       and support services as required/requested
     • March, 2016: Building Resilient Infrastructure
     • March, 2016: The Economic Cost of the Social Impact
        of Natural Disasters
     • July, 2014: Building an Open Platform for Disaster          Provision of Australian Government resources
        Resilience Decisions                                       and support services as required/requested
     • June, 2013: Building our Nation’s Resilience to Natural                                                    Au
        Disasters: australianbusinessroundtable.com.au

     Risk-based planning process
     A Risk Assessment Process Handbook has been
     developed which outlines, in more detail, the processes                                                      Au
     involved in the Queensland Emergency Risk Management
     Framework, which will be further developed into
     guidelines with relevant training and capability
     development.

     Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
RISK BASED PLANNING EQUATION

                                                                                 DISASTER MANAGEMENT ACT 2003

                                                                              4A GUIDING PRINCIPLES   DIV 3, S30 – (A) (F) LOCAL
                                                                                                      GROUP TO ENSURE
                                                                              (C) LOCAL GOVERNMENT
                                                                                                      CONSISTENCY WITH
                                                                              RESPONSIBLE FOR
                                                                                                      STATE (POLICY & OPS)
                                                                              MANAGING EVENTS
                                                                              IN THEIR LOCAL AREA     (C) PREPARE A LDM PLAN

                                                                                                      (D) ADVISE DISTRICT RE
                                                                                                      SUPPORT SERVICES
                                                                                                      REQUIRED

                                                                                                      (H) IDENTIFY AND
                                                                                                      COORDINATE USE OF
                                                                                                      RESOURCES THAT MAY
                                                                                                      BE USED FOR DM OPS

                                                                                 DISASTER MANAGEMENT ACT 2003                      21

                                                                              4A GUIDING PRINCIPLES   DIV 2, S23 – DISTRICT
                                                                                                      GROUP TO ENSURE
                                                                              (D) DISTRICT GROUPS
                                                                                                      CONSISTENCY WITH
                                                                              AND THE STATE GROUP
                                                                                                      STATE (POLICY & OPS)
                                                                              SHOULD PROVIDE
                                                                              LOCAL GOVERNMENTS       (C) PREPARE A DDM PLAN
                                                                              WITH APPROPRIATE
                                                                                                      (D) (II) REVIEW AND
                                                                              RESOURCES AND
                                                                                                      ASSESS LDMPS
                                                                              SUPPORT TO HELP
                                                                              LOCAL GOV CARRY         (G) COORDINATE STATE
                                                                              OUT DISASTER OPS.       RESOURCES AND
                                                                                                      SERVICES PROVIDED
                                                                                                      TO SUPPORT LOCAL

                                                                                                      (H) IDENTIFY RESOURCES
                                                                                                      THAT MAY BE USED FOR
                                                                                                      DM OPS IN DISTRICT

                                                                                                      (I) MAKE PLANS
                                                                                                      FOR ALLOCATION,
                                                                                                      COORDINATION OF
                                                                                                      USE OF RESOURCES
                                                                                                      IN (H)

           Sta SStatat
              te R eteRR
                    equ eqeuqu
                       est esetsst
                            s fo fsofo
                                r A r Ar sAs
                                   ssi sissis
                                       sta tanta
                                           nce cnece

                                                                                         NATIONAL STRATEGY
                                                                NATIONAL
                                                                   NATIONAL
                                                               NATIONAL                    FOR DISASTER
    Australian
     Australian
Australian     Government
                Government
           Government     capability
                      capability andand
                           capability   support
                                      and       mechanisms
                                          support
                                     support      mechanisms
                                             mechanisms           LENS
                                                                 LENSLENS                    RESILIENCE
A             B             C           GLOBAL TO STATE

22

     Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND          23

    The State context

B
A              B                  C          QUEENSLAND CONTEXT

     Geography

     Queensland is the second largest state          which reaches the Gulf of Carpentaria as    Beyond them is the Great Barrier Reef,
     in Australia and covers more than 22%           a broad tract of salt flats.                a series of coral formations stretching
     of the total Australian continent, an area                                                  for about 2,000 kilometres.
                                                     The far north-west is occupied by a
     of 1,730,648 square kilometres.
                                                     rugged uplands region, rich in minerals.    Outback Queensland is in stark contrast
     The coastline of mainland Queensland                                                        to the coast with its vast landscape and
                                                     Eastward, the country rises towards the
     is approximately 6,973 kilometres long.                                                     mining country with flat plains that
                                                     Great Dividing Range which runs from
                                                                                                 connect to the inner arid terrain of
     Queensland has a diverse landscape that         the southern border to the northern tip
                                                                                                 Central Australia.
     is dominated by its extensive coastline         of the State and is the main watershed
     which is home to more than 60% of its           between the coastal and inland rivers.      Queensland shares its borders with the
     resident population.                                                                        Northern Territory in the west, New South
                                                     East of the Great Dividing Range, the
                                                                                                 Wales to the south and South Australia
     Queensland is essentially a state of            country drops seaward in a variety of
                                                                                                 in the south-west corner.
     extensive plains which merge into high          ranges separated by lowlands.
     country of sharper relief to the east and       This structure is continued in a chain of
24   north-west. To the north, the country           mountainous offshore islands sitting on
     falls gradually to meet the coastal plain       the continental shelf.

         Figure 12
         Topographical map of Australia,
         illustrating the diversity of
         Queensland’s terrain.

         Source: shutterstock.com/AridOcean

     Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND’S ECONOMY

Queensland’s economy

Growth in the Queensland economy is          More importantly, however, it will          Overseas exports are expected to
forecast to strengthen over the coming       re-establish productivity enhancing         grow solidly over the forecast period,
years from 2.4% in 2015-16, to 2¾% in        infrastructure and restore the productive   generally between 3% and 4% per
both 2016-17 and 2017-18, and 3% in          capacity of affected economies, thereby     annum. In addition to the long-expected
2018-19. The 2017-18 Budget is focused       supporting ongoing growth and               ramp up in LNG exports, coal exports
on supporting continued growth and           employment across the State.                are expected to recover from the fall in
creating jobs for Queensland, while                                                      2016-17 induced by STC Debbie.
                                             As noted above, the Queensland
enabling the State’s $300 billion
                                             economy is forecast to strengthen,          The 2017-18 Budget features a range
economy to be more innovative, diverse
                                             from the 2.4% recorded in 2015-16,          of further initiatives aimed at optimising
and productive.
                                             to 2¾% in both 2016-17 and 2017-18,         the use of the State’s land and natural
The 2017-18 Budget includes a range          and 3% in 2018-19. Based on forecasts       resources, including promoting
of measures which will boost                 by the Australian Treasury, this is         exploration and mining activities
productivity and support ongoing longer-     stronger than expected national gross       through the $27.1 million Strategic
term employment including significant        domestic product (GDP) growth of 1¾%        Resources Exploration Program.
infrastructure projects in both South East   in 2016-17 and in line with it in 2017-18
                                                                                         Key elements of this initiative also         25
Queensland and regional Queensland as        and 2018-19.
                                                                                         form part of the government’s overall
part of a $42.75 billion four year capital
                                             Queensland growth forecasts for 2016-17     package of $39 million over four
works program.
                                             and 2017-18 would have been higher but      years to deliver initiatives to support
Operation Queensland Recovery is             for the impact of STC Debbie, which is      the North West Minerals Province,
well underway to recover, reconnect          estimated to have detracted around          including implementation of the
and rebuild more resilient Queensland        $2 billion or ¾ percentage point from       Queensland Government’s Strategic
communities following Severe Tropical        economic growth across these years.         Blueprint aimed at facilitating a strong
Cyclone (STC) Debbie. As at 2 June 2017,                                                 and prosperous future for the region.
                                             Major impacts from STC Debbie include
in the first two months after the cyclone,
                                             the loss of around 10 million tonnes        To protect the State’s natural assets
more than 118,000 people have been
                                             of coal exports due to damaged rail         and ensure they continue to create
assisted.
                                             infrastructure, around $300 million         wealth for current and future generations
Close to $30 million in assistance has       of losses to sugar exports and a            of Queenslanders, this Budget also
already been distributed through the         considerable hit to tourism in the          allocates $175 million to improve
Personal Hardship Assistance Grants and      Whitsundays region. With the impact         water quality in the Great Barrier Reef,
Immediate Hardship Assistance Grants         of the resources boom largely reflected     safeguard and respond to biosecurity
funded under the Natural Disaster Relief     in exports and population growth            related risks, and develop a Climate
and Recovery Arrangements (NDRRA).           broadly in line with the national rate,     Change Strategy to assist Queensland
                                             Queensland’s gross state product            to meet its national and international
A $14.7 million Community Recovery
                                             growth (GSP) is expected to remain          obligations related to CO2 emissions
Fund has been established and
                                             in line with national growth in the         targets.
additional funding of $2 million has been
                                             projection years, at 3%.
provided for the government’s Go Local                                                   The government’s comprehensive
campaign to support the agricultural         Business investment continues to            Great Barrier Reef Water Quality Program,
industry in disaster affected areas.         adjust in 2016-17 from the record levels    totalling $175 million over five years,
                                             experienced during the Liquefied Natural    is in addition to the $100 million
The Queensland Government is also
                                             Gas (LNG) construction boom. Despite        provided in 2015-16 to address the
expecting to spend over $1 billion to
                                             bright spots in tourism and education       recommendations arising from the
restore essential public assets before
                                             and ongoing spending in the coal seam       Great Barrier Reef Water Science
reimbursements from the Australian
                                             gas (CSG) sector, business investment       Taskforce. The Budget also includes
Government through the jointly-funded
                                             in Queensland is expected to be broadly     $40 million to revitalise and leverage
NDRRA. This investment will rebuild
                                             unchanged in 2017-18, before returning      value from our national parks through
vital infrastructure and supporting
                                             to moderate growth from 2018-19             increased tourism and other activities.
communities and stimulate significant
                                             onward, consistent with the national
short term construction activity and
                                             growth profile.
jobs in these regions.
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