QUEENSLAND State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 - Disaster ...
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© The State of Queensland (Queensland Fire and Emergency Services) 30th June 2017. The Queensland Government, acting through Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, supports and encourages the dissemination and exchange of publicly funded information and endorses the use of the Australian Governments Open Access and Licensing Framework http://www.ausgoal.gov.au/ All Queensland Fire and Emergency Services’ material in this document – except Queensland Fire and Emergency Services’ logos, any material protected by a trademark, and unless otherwise noted – is licensed under a https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode Queensland Fire and Emergency Services has undertaken reasonable enquiries to identify material owned by third parties and secure permission for its reproduction. Permission may need to be obtained from third parties to re-use their material. Sources for the full page images used in this document: • Front and back covers – Image courtesy of Torsten Blackwood. • Pages 16 and 92 – Images courtesy of Mr “S” Photography. • Pages 2, 22 and 57 – Images courtesy of Torsten Blackwood. • Pages 4 and 44 – Images courtesy of Japan Meteorological Agency. Written requests relating to the copyright in this document should be addressed to: Intellectual Property Coordinator For Queensland Fire and Emergency Services C/- QPS Legal Unit, Legal Division Queensland Police Service GPO Box 1440, Brisbane Q 4001 PH: 07 3364 3958 EM: QFES.IPCopyright@qfes.qld.gov.au Disclaimer To the extent possible under applicable law, the material in this document is supplied as-is and as-available, and makes no representations or warranties of any kind whether express, implied, statutory, or otherwise. This includes, without limitation, warranties of title, merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, non-infringement, absence of latent or other defects, accuracy, or the presence or absence of errors, whether or not known or discoverable. Where disclaimers of warranties are not allowed in full or in part, this disclaimer may not apply. To the extent possible under applicable law, neither the Queensland Government or Queensland Fire and Emergency Services will be liable to you on any legal ground (including, without limitation, negligence) or otherwise for any direct, special, indirect, incidental, consequential, punitive, exemplary, or other losses, costs, expenses, or damages arising out of the use of the material in this document. Where a limitation of liability is not allowed in full or in part, this limitation may not apply. Thank you The State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017 was a collaborative effort, bringing together the expertise of multiple stakeholders. QFES would like to thank all the organisations and individuals who assisted us in developing this document. Particular thanks to the Queensland Police Service, Geoscience Australia, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology and Innovation, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Queensland Reconstruction Authority and local governments throughout Queensland. Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
LOCAL TOPIC IDENTIFIER Foreword Queensland’s Disaster Management If disaster risk exists then action of Arrangements (QDMA): Local, District some kind needs to be taken; the very and State. Starting at the local existence of risk requires that action government level, the communication be taken to at least reduce it and, at of risk information between each tier can the same time, to ensure that new risk inform communities and government, is not created. The success of both the emergency services and all emergency Sendai Framework and of the QERMF will management partners in making be measured against the safety of our decisions to prevent, prepare for communities and whether the impact and respond to and recover from of hazards is reduced substantially natural disasters. from current projected impacts and costings. Meeting this challenge requires The information contained in this working on three synergistic pathways: report, including the hazard specific risk preventing the creation of new risk, profiles, together with the more detailed reducing existing risk, and strengthening local and district risk assessments and Katarina Carroll APM resilience. Of course understanding risk 1 disaster management plans can be used Commissioner, Queensland Fire and Emergency Services in depth is the starting point and we are by stakeholders across government and well on our way as this report represents Disaster events affect the lives of all practitioners throughout the emergency a maturing capability in the identification Queenslanders and have a significant management sector. and analysis of natural hazard risk that impact on the economy and our This scope of the 2017 State Natural will inform the development of risk- environment. Whether of natural or Hazard Risk Assessment includes the based plans across the multi-tiered human origin, disasters are becoming hazards of Tropical Cyclones, Riverine QDMA. Risk-based planning is one of the increasingly extreme and complex, flooding, Bushfires, Severe Weather, cornerstone enablers for the Queensland exacerbated not only by the effects of Earthquakes, Heatwaves and Coastal community to be better able to prevent, climate change but also our globally Inundation. Tropical Cyclones and be prepared for, respond to and recover interlinked economies. There is a need Riverine flooding remain the hazards from natural disasters. to improve our collective capability to whose impacts pose the greatest risk assess and more deeply understand I thank all stakeholders for their to Queensland. disaster risk as the first step towards contribution to the 2017 Queensland the development of resilience including The Queensland Emergency Risk Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and prevention, preparation, response Management Framework (QERMF) was their continued support and commitment and recovery planning. This is also developed to build on and enhance the towards our community’s disaster reflective of the international focus on risk assessments and plans developed resilience. I would also like to specifically understanding disaster risk as priority by local governments and disaster thank the Queensland Police Service for one of the Sendai Framework for Disaster districts. Therefore, the QERMF is a partnering with QFES on this initiative, Risk Reduction 2015-2030. holistic disaster risk management the Queensland Reconstruction Authority paradigm to be applied across all levels for their support and local governments Queensland is exposed to a range of QDMA. for their ongoing cooperation. of natural hazards which can lead to significant consequences for our The collaborative workshops that I encourage all Queenslanders affected communities. Within the last decade accompany the risk analysis and by disaster risk to consider this we have experienced natural disasters the expected outcomes of the valuable report and use it to inform the of a size and scale that are almost implementation of the QERMF give rise management of risks applicable to their unprecedented; certainly we have to a number of significant enhancements interests and responsibilities. endured some of the most significant to Queensland’s safety. As noted by events in recent history. the United Nations Institute for Disaster Risk Reduction, the contemporary These events reinforce the need to international focus represents a shift understand disaster risk in sufficient from managing disasters to managing detail to meet the community’s needs risk; from focusing on disasters to and communicate appropriate risk focusing on risk. information across the three tiers of
CONTENTS Table of Contents Foreword 1 RIVERINE FLOODING 57 Table of Contents 3 Definition 58 The Queensland context 58 PART A – DISASTER RISK Potential exposures 58 Global to State 5 Drainage Divisions, River Basins and BOM Flood Gauges 59 Introduction 6 Risk analysis 60 International perspective on disaster risk 8 Risk statement 61 World Economic Forum - Global Risks Report 2017 10 Treatments 62 Understanding disaster risk components 12 References and sources of additional information 62 The economic cost of disaster to Australia 13 The Queensland Emergency Risk Management COASTAL INUNDATION 63 Framework 14 Definition 64 Queensland’s Disaster Management Arrangements 17 The Queensland context 65 Queensland’s developing approach Multi-hazard interaction 66 to risk based planning 18 Potential exposures 66 Risk Based Planning Equation 20 Risk analysis 66 3 PART B – QUEENSLAND Risk statement 67 Treatments 68 The State context 23 References and sources of additional information 68 Geography 24 Queensland’s economy 25 HEATWAVE 69 Economic impacts of Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie 27 Definition 70 Queensland’s economic sectors 28 The Queensland context 70 Community 29 Multi-hazard interaction 71 Queensland’s State Planning Policy 31 Potential exposures 71 Queensland’s climate 32 Risk analysis 72 Climate change projections 37 Risk statement 73 Treatments 74 PART C – QUEENSLAND References and sources of additional information 74 State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 39 BUSHFIRE 75 The Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 40 Definition 76 Developing the State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 42 The Queensland context 76 TROPICAL CYCLONE 45 Potential exposures 76 Definition 45 Landsat Fire History 2011-2015 Map 77 The Queensland context 45 Risk analysis 78 Tropical Cyclone Heat Map 47 Risk statement 79 Multi-hazard interaction 48 Treatments 80 Potential exposures 48 References and sources of additional information 80 Risk analysis 49 EARTHQUAKE 81 Risk statement 49 Definition 82 Treatments 50 The Queensland context 84 References and sources of additional information 50 Potential exposures 84 SEVERE WEATHER EVENT 51 Earthquake Heat Map 85 Definition 52 Risk analysis 86 The Queensland context 52 Risk statement 86 Severe Storm Archive Map 53 Treatments 87 Multi-hazard interaction 54 References and sources of additional information 88 Potential exposures 54 SUMMARY AND PRIORITIES 88 Risk analysis 54 Risk statement 55 Queensland Hazard and Risk Priority Map 90 Treatments 56 South-East Queensland inset 91 References and sources of additional information 56
A B C GLOBAL TO STATE Introduction The Queensland Fire and Emergency A proof-of-concept was assessed at the Similar to the UNISDR Guidelines, Services (QFES) has responsibility Disaster District level across Queensland the Queensland Emergency Risk under the Queensland State Disaster in 2016 and this methodology was found Management Framework is intended to: Management Plan to prepare a State to be effective in the identification of • Provide consistent guidance in Natural Hazard Risk Assessment. In risk and, more specifically, in the understanding disaster risk that addition, all Australian States and identification of residual risk, for disaster would act as a conduit for publicly- Territories agreed via the Law, Crime and management planning at and between available risk information. This Community Safety Council to conduct all levels of government. approach would also assist in the State level risk assessments by 30 June In November 2016, the Queensland establishment and implementation 2017 for collaboration and discussion at Disaster Management Committee of a framework for collaboration the national level. endorsed the continued development and sharing of information in In 2015, QFES researched international of the Queensland Emergency Risk disaster risk management, best practice in natural hazard risk Management Framework using this including for risk-informed disaster assessment. This research led to the methodology to facilitate enhanced risk risk reduction strategies and plans. development of a methodology that based planning so that we may better 6 • Encourage holistic risk harnesses scientific data relating to each prevent, prepare for, respond to and assessments that would provide hazard and uses geospatial information recover from disaster events. an understanding of the many systems to analyse historical and/or Concurrently, in 2016 the United different dimensions of disaster projected impacts to identify exposures, Nations Office for Disaster Risk risk (hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities and subsequently risk. Reduction (UNISDR) commissioned the vulnerabilities, capability and This approach also promotes development of guidelines on national capacities). The assessments sense-checking between scientific data, disaster risk assessment (NDRA) as would include diverse types of mapping and modelling with local part of a series of thematic guidelines direct and indirect impacts of knowledge during the risk analysis stage, under its “Words into Action” initiative disaster, such as physical, social, which is of paramount importance. to support implementation of the Sendai economic, environmental and Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction institutional. 2015-2030 (see Figure 1). Both of these outcomes may take several The guidelines, to which Queensland years to mature. However, by keeping contributed, are the result of the abreast with scientific and technological collaboration between more than advancements and by also remaining 100 leading experts from national connected at the local level, they are authorities, international organisations, achievable and will produce tangible non-governmental organisations, enhancements to the safety and academia, think tanks and private-sector resilience of the Queensland entities. community. They focus on the Sendai Framework’s first Priority for Action: Understanding Disaster Risk, which is the basis for all measures on disaster risk reduction and is closely linked to the other three Priorities for Action. Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
preparedness for response and recovery, and thus engthen resilience THE SENDAI FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION Targets Substantially increase Substantially Substantially increase stantially reduce the number of enhance international the availability of aster damage to countries with national cooperation and access to multi- cal infrastructure and local disaster risk to developing countries hazard early warning disruption of basic reduction strategies by through adequate and systems and disaster vices, among them 2020 sustainable support risk information and lth and educational to complement their assessments to people lities, including national actions for by 2030 ough developing r resilience by 2030 implementation of this framework by 2030 Chart of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 Scope and purpose The present framework will apply to the risk of small-scale and large-scale, frequent and ities for Action infrequent, sudden and slow-onset disasters, caused by natural or manmade hazards as well as related environmental, technological and biological hazards and risks. States at local, national, regional and global levels It aimsintothe following guide four priority the multi-hazard areas. of disaster risk in management development at all levels as well as within and across all sectors Priority 3 Priority 4 k Investing in disaster risk reduction Enhancing disaster preparedness for r risk for resilience Expected effective response, and to «Build outcome Back Better» in recovery, rehabilitation and The substantial reduction ofreconstruction disaster risk and losses in lives, livelihoods and health and in tional, Public and private investmenttheineconomic, disaster physical, Experiencesocial, indicatescultural and environmental assets of persons, businesses, that disaster o the risk prevention and reduction through preparedness needs communities and countries to be strengthened ction structural and non-structural measures for more effective response and 7 erence are essential to enhance the economic, ensure capacities are in place for of laws, social, health and cultural resilience of effective recovery. Disasters have Goal t, by persons, communities, countries and their also demonstrated that the recovery, guide, Prevent new andrehabilitation assets, as well as the environment. These reduce existing disaster riskphase, and reconstruction through the implementation of integrated and lic and can be drivers of innovation,inclusive growth and economic, whichstructural, needs to be legal, prepared social, ahead health, of the cultural, educational, environmental, address job creation. Such measures technological, are cost- political disaster,and institutional is an opportunity to measures «Build Back that prevent and reduce hazard exposure effective and instrumental toand savevulnerability lives, to disaster, Better» through increase integratingpreparedness disaster risk for response and recovery, and thus prevent and reduce losses and ensure reduction measures. Women and persons strengthen resilience effective recovery and rehabilitation with disabilities should publicly lead and promote gender-equitable and Targets universally accessible approaches during the response Substantially reduce and reconstruction phases Substantially increase Substantially Substantially increase Substantially reduce Reduce direct disaster Substantially reduce the number of enhance international the availability of global disaster the number of affected economic loss in disaster damage to cooperation and access to multi- ding Principles mortality by 2030, people globally by relation to global critical infrastructure countries with national and local disaster risk to developing countries hazard early warning aiming to lower 2030, aiming to lower gross domestic and disruption of basic reduction strategies by through adequate and systems and disaster average per 100,000 the average global product (GDP) by services, among them 2020 sustainable support risk information and global mortality figure per 100,000 2030 health and educational gagement from all of Full engagement of all Empowerment of Decision-making to to complement their assessments to people between 2020-2030 between 2020-2030 facilities, including ciety compared toState institutions 2005- of anto 2005-local authorities and compared be inclusive through and risk- developing national actions for by 2030 2015 executive and legislative 2015 communities through informed their while resilience using a by 2030 implementation of this nature at national and resources, incentives multi-hazard approach framework by 2030 local levels and decision-making responsibilities as appropriate ng risk «Build Back Better» for The quality of global Support from developed ly versus preventing the creation partnership and of, and reducing existing, international cooperation Priorities for Action countries and partners to developing countries to post- disaster riskThere is a need to forbe effective, focused meaningful action within and be tailored according across sectors to at local, national, regional and global levels in the following four priority areas. by States d and strong needs and priorities as Priority 1 Priority 2 identified by them Priority 3 Priority 4 Understanding disaster risk Strengthening disaster risk Investing in disaster risk reduction Enhancing disaster preparedness for governance to manage disaster risk for resilience effective response, and to «Build Back Better» in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction Disaster risk management needs to be Disaster risk governance at the national, Public and private investment in disaster Experience indicates that disaster based on an understanding of disaster regional and global levels is vital to the risk prevention and reduction through preparedness needs to be strengthened risk in all its dimensions of vulnerability, management of disaster risk reduction structural and non-structural measures for more effective response and capacity, exposure of persons and in all sectors and ensuring the coherence are essential to enhance the economic, ensure capacities are in place for assets, hazard characteristics and the of national and local frameworks of laws, social, health and cultural resilience of effective recovery. Disasters have environment regulations and public policies that, by persons, communities, countries and their also demonstrated that the recovery, defining roles and responsibilities, guide, assets, as well as the environment. These rehabilitation and reconstruction phase, encourage and incentivize the public and can be drivers of innovation, growth and which needs to be prepared ahead of the private sectors to take action and address job creation. Such measures are cost- disaster, is an opportunity to «Build Back disaster risk effective and instrumental to save lives, Better» through integrating disaster risk prevent and reduce losses and ensure reduction measures. Women and persons effective recovery and rehabilitation with disabilities should publicly lead and promote gender-equitable and universally accessible approaches during the response and reconstruction phases Guiding Principles Primary responsibility Shared responsibility Protection of persons Engagement from all of Full engagement of all Empowerment of Decision-making to of States to prevent between central and their assets while society State institutions of an local authorities and be inclusive and risk- and reduce disaster Government and national promoting and protecting executive and legislative communities through informed while using a Figure 1 risk, including through authorities, sectors all human rights including nature at national and resources, incentives multi-hazard approach cooperation and stakeholders as the right to development local levels and decision-making The Sendai Framework for Disaster appropriate Risk Reduction (2015-2030) is an international to national responsibilities as circumstances appropriate accord on disaster risk reduction endorsed by the UN General Assembly in June 2015. Coherence of disaster Accounting of local and Addressing underlying risk «Build Back Better» for The quality of global Support from developed Source: United Nations Office for Disaster risk reduction and Risk Reduction specific characteristics (www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/sendai-framework) factors cost-effectively preventing the creation partnership and countries and partners to sustainable development of disaster risks when through investment versus of, and reducing existing, international cooperation developing countries to policies, plans, practices determining measures to relying primarly on post- disaster risk to be effective, meaningful be tailored according to and mechanisms, across reduce risk disaster response and and strong needs and priorities as different sectors recovery identified by them www.preventionweb.net/go/sfdrr www.unisdr.org isdr@un.org
A B C GLOBAL TO STATE International perspective on disaster risk The Global Facility for Disaster Risk Another consistent international theme is Successful risk assessments produce Reduction (GFDRR) identifies the three that the foundation for effective disaster information that is targeted, key global factors influencing the risk management lies in understanding authoritative, understandable and manifestation and impact of natural the hazards, the exposure and the usable. This can only be achieved hazard risks as population growth, vulnerability of people, assets and if the process of creating and using risk urbanisation and climate change. environment to those hazards. information is transparent and if there Governments, communities and is communication and collaboration To assist the development of community individuals can make much better among all involved parties: scientists, resilience, the GFDRR notes that the informed prevention decisions by engineers, decision makers, international community needs to appropriately identifying risks and governmental authorities and prioritise disaster risk assessment anticipating the potential impacts community representatives. methodology that directly informs of hazards. collective planning with accurate and A risk assessment that embraces these actionable risk information. elements enables the identification and development of information useful for risk mitigation. 8 Figure 2 The WorldRiskIndex and its components identify the potential vulnerabilities of countries to natural hazards. Source: WorldRiskReport (www.weltrisikobericht.de/english) Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
WORLD RISK INDEX MEASURES AND VULNERABILITIES From a public policy perspective, risk It is the potential vulnerability of Australians also enjoy more information can be sensitive information communities that forms the basis for comparatively stable economic and as it requires government, private sector, the WorldRiskIndex which calculates political systems which afford more community and the individual to decide the disaster risk for 171 countries by options toward resilience. on action (or inaction) to reduce the multiplying vulnerability with exposure impacts of potentially hazardous events. to natural hazards. The chance of risk information translating According to the WorldRiskIndex, into action, then, depends to a large Australia rates as ‘low’ on a global scale, extent on sensitive negotiations between despite our reasonably high level of government and affected communities. exposure to natural hazards. Our rating is partly due to the global comparisons Humans can only influence to a degree of population sizes and rates of poverty whether, and with what intensity, in less developed countries (where many natural events impact our communities. hundreds of thousands of people may However, we can take precautions to experience significant vulnerability and help prevent the manifestation of a 9 risk from natural hazards with relatively natural phenomenon from becoming a little means of assistance per head of disaster event. population). Figure 3 The WorldRiskIndex map shows the disaster risk for 171 countries by multiplying vulnerability with exposure to natural hazards. Source: WorldRiskReport (www.weltrisikobericht.de/english)
A B C GLOBAL TO STATE World Economic Forum – Global Risks Report 2017 The World Economic Forum Global Risks These risks are categorised into five This year, environmental concerns are Report 2017 features perspectives from areas: economic, environmental, more prominent than ever, with all five nearly 750 experts on the perceived geopolitical, societal and technological. risks in this category assessed as being impact and likelihood of 30 prevalent above average for both impact and During the past decade, a cluster of global risks and 13 underlying trends likelihood. environment-related risks – notably that could amplify them or alter their extreme weather events and failure Extreme weather events have risen to be interconnections over a 10-year of climate change mitigation and the number one global risk in 2017 with timeframe. Figure adaptation 2: The – have Evolving emerged as a Risks Landscape, 2007-2017 major natural disasters being recorded consistently central feature of the Figure 2: The Evolving Risks Landscape, 2007-2017 as the third highest. global risk landscape. Figure 2: The Evolving Risks Landscape, 2007-2017 Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood Figure 2: The Evolving Risks Landscape, 2007-2017 Top 5 Global Risks in Terms2007 of Likelihood 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 2: The Evolving2014 Risks Landscape, 2007-2017 2015 2007 2008of Breakdown 2016 Asset price 2009 2010 Asset price 2017 2011 Asset price Storms2012and Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood 1st critical information collapse collapse collapse cyclones 2007 2008 Breakdown of Asset 2009 price infrastructure 2010 price Asset 2011 price Asset 2012 Storms and 2013 Severe inco Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood 1st critical information collapse collapse collapse cyclones disparity me10 Top 5 Income disparity Global Risks in Terms 2007 of Likelihood 2008 of Breakdown Interstate conflict Asset price 2009 infrastructure Asset2010price Large-scale Asset 2011 price Breakdown 2012and Storms Extreme weather of critical information Severe infrastructure 2013 income 2014 Severe income 1st critical information collapse Chronic disease collapse collapse Middle East Slowing Chinese disparity cyclones Slowing Chinese disparity Flooding 2007 Breakdown 2008 of Asset price2009 infrastructure with regional Asset price2010 2nd in developed Asset price 2011 countries involuntary Storms instability Breakdown and2012 Severeeconomy of critical information income events 2013 (
GLOBALRISKS REPORT 2017 Figure 3: The The Global RisksRisks Global Landscape 2017 2017 Landscape What is the impact and likelihood of a range of global risks? 11 Impact Likelihood Figure 5 The World Economic Forum Global Risks Report maps the perceived impact and likelihood of 30 prevalent global risks. Source: World Economic Forum (www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2017)
A B C GLOBAL TO STATE Understanding disaster risk components The international review of disaster Queensland’s methodology embodies The Sendai Framework for Disaster risk methodologies by the UNISDR in this approach to understanding disaster Risk Reduction 2015 – 2030 marks a 2017 noted that the conceptualisation risk. crucial shift from managing disasters of disaster risk has undergone a to managing disaster risk. The UNISDR transformation. noted that the long term benefits of risk informed disaster risk reduction The UNISDR observed the use of the strategies and plans significantly classic disaster risk concepts, which outweigh the initial outlay costs of describe risk in terms of likelihood and conducting risk assessments. The consequence, however further stated UNISDR further noted that the financial that, in order to identify and evaluate cost of conducting risk assessment is the best measures for reducing risk, marginal to the total cost of the impacts an assessment should also analyse of disasters. hazard, exposure, vulnerabilities and capacities, as well as the direct and indirect impacts. 12 Figure 6 UNISDR’s Understanding disaster risk model; comprehensive understanding of disaster risk empowers effective and inclusive disaster risk management. Source: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (www.unisdr.org) Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
DISASTER RISKS AND ECONOMIC COSTS TO AUSTRALIA This report finds that in 2015, the total economic Natural disasters affect all states and cost of natural disasters in an average year– including tangible and intangible costs – exceeded $9 billion, territories The economicin cost Australia. They of disaster have an to Australia which is equivalent to about 0.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the same year. This is expected to enormous impact on people, the almost double by 2030 and to average $33 billion per year by 2050 in real terms (Chart ii), even without environment and our communities The Australian Business Roundtable for Disaster Resilience and Safer Comprehensive information on all costs of natural disasters is required to consideringThe the work of the potential Australian impact Business of climate Roundtable has highlighted, where data change. Communities’ The economic cost of the understand the full impact of naturalClearly comprehensive allows, theinformation intangibleon all costs costs of natural of natural In Australia, social impact of natural disasters 2016 natural disasters have incurred billions disasters on our communities and disasters is required to understand disasters and found that:the full impact of of dollars in report states that the true cost of natural tangible costs to individuals, businesses economy and to also understand the 1 natural disasters on our communities and economy and; • Natural disasters can have a disasters is at least 50% greater than and governments. extent to which expenditure on to also understand the extent to which expenditure devastating impact on individuals, on previous estimates when the cost of mitigation and resilience measures mitigation and resilience measures is effective. families, local communities, Beyond the known economic costs, it is well recognised social impacts is incorporated. is effective. businesses and governments. that natural disasters have wide-ranging social impacts When both tangible and intangible costs that are not only highMultiple Australian in immediate impact,Business but oftenRoundtable In particular, the social impacts Chart i: Breakdown of costs between reports are included, estimates are persist that the the rest of reports fortotal people’s(as listed lives. onthere While pageis 21) outline the are complex, interrelated and economic cost of natural disasters in evidenceprojected considerable costs ofour of social impacts, natural Other disasters and knowledge difficult to quantify. intangible Australia in 2015 would haveofexceeded their economic cost indicate thatunderstood. is not well investment in resilience • There is clear evidence social $9 billion, or 0.6% of GDP. measures may reduce the costs of impacts account for a substantial Where data permits, this report identifies and disaster relief and recovery by more part of the total economic cost of This is expected to double by 2030 and quantifies the social impacts of natural disasters, than 50% by 2050. natural disasters. to reach an average of $33 billion perthose on health and wellbeing, education, including Deaths 13 year by 2050 without considering the and communityThis estimate doesWhen not include less and injuries • Placing a monetary value, where employment networks. potential impact of climate change. visible and intangible costs such as Tangible possible, on these social impacts considered alongside the tangible costs highlighted in will assist in better understanding Building our Nation’sincreased Resiliencemental health to Natural issues, family Disasters violence, alcohol consumption, chronic the total economic cost of natural (2013), a much richer picture emerges of the total and non-communicable diseases and disasters and thereby strengthen economic cost of natural disasters to Australia. short term unemployment. the case for building individual Building our Nation’s Resilience This report and community resilience. to Natural Disasters (2013) 1. In line with the Productivity Commission report, costs in this report are defined as: • Direct tangible costs: Chart ii: 2015–50 forecast of the total economic cost of natural disasters, identifying costs for each state those incurred as a result of the hazard event and $bn (2015 prices) have a market value 40 such as damage to private properties and 35 infrastructure • Indirect tangible costs: 30 the flow-on effects that are not directly caused 25 ■ TAS by the natural disaster ■ ACT itself, but arise from the 20 consequences of the ■ NT damage and destruction 15 ■ SA such as business and ■ WA network disruptions 10 • Intangible costs: capture ■ QLD direct and indirect ■ VIC 5 damages that cannot be easily priced such as death ■ NSW and injury, impacts on 0 health and wellbeing, and 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 community connectedness. Source: Deloitte Access Economics analysis 12 Figure 7 The Australian Business Roundtable has forecast the total economic cost of natural disasters to Australia to highlight the need for a holistic strategy. Source: The Australian Business Roundtable: The economic cost of the social impact of natural disasters report, 2016 (www.australianbusinessroundtable.com.au)
A B C GLOBAL TO STATE The Queensland Emergency Risk Management Framework Even though substantial challenges The Queensland Emergency Risk In addition to meeting the above remain in fully assessing disaster risk, Management Framework (QERMF) is international and national standards, significant progress across multiple underpinned by this multidisciplinary the QERMF also upholds international areas has occurred, including: approach, uniting international and best practice as championed by the • hazard data and models for Australian best practice, the strategic UNISDR and the Global Facility for identifying and analysing risk direction of world risk management Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) have grown in number and leaders and using operational and seeks to literally enact the Sendai accessibility geospatial intelligence to undertake Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction’s exposure and vulnerability analysis “Priorities for Action”. • risk data and mapping are which can directly inform the State’s increasingly being made freely The QERMF also recognises the multitiered disaster management available to users as part of a relevant elements within the arrangements and planning. larger global trend toward Emergency Management Assurance open data The QERMF derives risk methodology Framework (EMAF) as published by • there is a deeper understanding from: the Office of the Inspector-General – on the part of governments as • ISO 31000:2009 Risk management Emergency Management, Queensland. 14 well as development institutions – Principles and guidelines The QERMF applies analysis techniques such as the World Bank – that • SA/SNZ HB 436: 2013 Risk from the field of geospatial intelligence disaster risk management management guidelines – to conduct broad area/geographic requires many partners working companion to AS/NZS ISO assessments. This intelligence cooperatively and sharing 31000:2009 comprises relevant environmental, information. built, community and hazard information • SA/SNZ HB 89:2013 Risk management – Guidelines on risk to gain a true appreciation and create assessment techniques a comprehensive profile of risk. • AS/NZS 5050: 2010 Business This approach also makes risk continuity – Managing disruption assessments a fundamental enabler related risk for effective pre impact analysis and • National Emergency Risk planning within disaster operations. Assessment Guidelines (Australian Emergency Management Institute, 2015). Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 - 2030 1 Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND EMERGENCY RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK The ability to develop, access and use geospatial data, information and knowledge is essential to providing the most cohesive representation of exposure, vulnerability and risk. As geospatial information is managed and coordinated by various agencies, cooperation and communication is vital. Q U E E N S L A N D E ME R G E N C Y RI S K MA N A G E ME N T F R A ME W O R K ( Q E R MF ) The multidisciplinary approach that underpins the QERMF directly informs the RISK ASSESSMENT identification of risk treatment options that fall into two broad categories: PROCESS HANDBOOK • Proactive approaches involving Prepared by Emergency Management Readiness Unit, State Operational Coordination Branch, Queensland Fire and Emergency Services prevention and preparedness measures which may influence 15 the potential and/or scale of disruptive events. • Contingency plans and contingent capability (response) to minimise DISCLAIMER the impact of potentially disruptive This document was produced by the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services, State Operational Coordination Branch. This document, and all intellectual property contained within, is copyright (2017) of the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services and remains in the control of the Director, State Operational Coordination Branch. The document and/or its contents are to be used for events. Development of emergency management purposes only and are not to be disseminated to a third party, for any purpose whatsoever, without the prior consent of the Director, State Operational Coordination Branch. If this document and/or its contents becomes or appears likely at any time to become subject of any writ, subpoena, right to information action, or any other legal process, then the Director, State Operational Coordination Branch is to be advised immediately. contingency plans and contingent capability can assist to reduce and Figure 8 stabilise the impacts of events, Queensland’s Emergency Risk Management Framework embraces leading industry standards, restore and expedite restoration pictured below, and is further detailed in the Risk Assessment Process Handbook, shown above. of normalcy (recovery). Sources (below, l to r): www.preventionweb.net/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf www.iso.org/standard/43170.html www.aidr.org.au/media/1489/handbook-10-national-emergency-risk-assessment-guidelines.pdf www.igem.qld.gov.au/assurance-framework/Documents/IGEM-EMAF.pdf#search=EMAF HANDBOOK 10 National Emergency Risk Assessment Guidelines Emergency Management Assurance Framework
A B C GLOBAL TO STATE 16 Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND’S DISASTER MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENTS Queensland’s Disaster Management Arrangements The Australian Emergency Management management through regular reviews Centre (SDCC) sit at the State level. Arrangements are formed around three and assessments of disasters which, in The SDCC is an operational venue for levels of government: Local, State and turn, enables the Local Government to the provision of State level support to the Australian Government. develop its Local Disaster Management disaster management operations. Plan (LDMP). The most senior level of committee is The Queensland Disaster Management the Queensland Disaster Management Arrangements acknowledge these three A District Disaster Management Group Committee (QDMC). Part of the QDMC levels of government and also include (DDMG) is established for each Disaster function is to ensure effective disaster an additional tier between Local and District. Part of a DDMG’s function is to management is developed and State Governments – known as Disaster develop effective disaster management implemented for the State through Districts. for the District, including a District preparation and regular review of the Disaster Management Plan (DDMP). The Disaster Management Act 2003 State Disaster Management Plan (SDMP) This plan is developed through regular denotes that Local Governments are and to also provide strategic direction review and assessment of the disaster primarily responsible for managing during disaster events. management of the Local Governments events in their area and must establish within their District and their LDMPs. a Local Disaster Management Group 17 (LDMG). Part of an LDMG’s function is The State Disaster Coordination Group to improve and foster effective disaster and the State Disaster Coordination NATIONAL ARRANGEMENTS STATE ARRANGEMENTS Local Disaster Local Government Management Group Local Local Disaster Coordination Centre District Disaster Management Group District District Disaster Coordination Centre State Government Queensland Disaster Management Committee State State Disaster Coordination Centre Attorney-General’s Department Australian Government Australian Government Crisis Coordination Centre Figure 9 Queensland’s Disaster Management Arrangements comprise four tiers, including a Disaster District array for improved efficiency and effectiveness. Source: www.disaster.qld.gov.au
A B C GLOBAL TO STATE Queensland’s developing approach to risk based planning – the Queensland Emergency Risk Management Framework The Queensland Emergency Risk The model below (Figure 10) depicts Assessing risk using this methodology Management Framework (QERMF) is the overarching risk based planning assists in: underscored by multiple, standardised methodology within the QERMF. This • gauging the probability that and integrated tools that assist in model shows the four clear steps to a hazard may manifest identifying, assessing, analysing and ensuring the identification, analysis • using geospatial analysis to managing risk. and management of risk. determine where the hazard The successful foundation for disaster This methodology provides a may manifest and what key risk management lies in clearly comprehensive and systematic local elements could be exposed identifying and understanding the approach to ensure that all potential to that hazard; geospatial broad level of exposure and vulnerability to risks are identified via exposure and area analysis also enables a a community and its assets against vulnerability analysis which directly more strategic overview to particular hazards. informs risk based planning. be conducted to directly observe interconnectedness of Local or District areas as well as the infrastructure systems 18 Figure 10 The Queensland Emergency Risk Management Framework’s Approach integrates a range of assessment elements to assist in risk based planning. Source: Queensland Fire and Emergency Services Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND’S EMERGENCY RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK • evaluating the effect of a hazard A wealth of information is available Risk treatment strategies manifesting, based on the within Local Governments, via State and residual risk assessment of the severity of Government departments such as the exposure and the level Department of Science, Information When identifying risk treatment of vulnerability Technology and Innovation and the strategies, it is important to prioritise Department of Natural Resources and responses to inform decisions about • informing risk prioritisation, Mines, or from national sources such as what is to be done, when and by whom. treatment, resource allocation Geoscience Australia and the Australian This requires understanding of attributes and planning, and measuring this Bureau of Meteorology. Multiple such as urgency, controllability and against the capability and capacity research institutions from the tertiary response effectiveness to execute the to manage the identified and corporate sector can also provide actions effectively and in a timely vulnerabilities. valid, recognised and credible data. manner to make the best use of The processes shown within Step 1 available resources. Once treatment Context in Figure 10 establish the context Once overlaid onto the natural and of risk measures have been identified, using a layering approach that includes built environment, geospatial analysis planned or put into place, it is important the natural environment such as indicates exposures which, when to then consider the residual risk. 19 geomorphology, demography and investigated further, may give rise to specific vulnerabilities and therefore Residual risk is the risk that is beyond the built environment. It is particularly lead to the identification of risks. This the capability and/or capacity of the important to also identify critical and process must be sense-checked against Local or District community or essential infrastructure networks local knowledge, ideally with local communities and existing disaster during this stage. representatives involved in the collection management plans to treat or mitigate. The majority of this information can and analysis of the relevant information. Residual risk must either be accepted be displayed in geospatial layers as Step 3 Risk analysis formalises the as tolerable or should be transferred to developing a shared understanding of analysis process and reviews existing and/or shared across the next level of the interconnectedness of infrastructure controls including capability and the disaster management arrangement within the area of interest is a precursor capacity at the respective level (upon consultation). to commencing the actual risk assessment process. (Local, District or State). This will allow for the residual risk to be This in turn identifies residual risk – understood and treatment or mitigation It is also important for sites or areas the risk that remains in unmanaged form, measures and plans to be developed as important to the communities, that may even if controls are in place, and is the per the Risk Based Planning Equation not necessarily be infrastructure, to be key to risk-based planning. shown in Figure 11 on the following pages. identified in these layers. Identifying what is of value to communities, such Step 4 Risk-based planning aims to as areas of cultural significance, and determine and implement the most therefore what they would want to appropriate actions to treat (control protect or prioritise for mitigation is or mitigate) the identified risks at the also very important. respective level as well as to address Step 2 Hazard analysis, focuses on how the residual risk between levels. These hazards manifest and their interaction actions typically comprise both short with the natural and built environments, and longer term strategies to address as identified in Step 1. immediate impacts and the resultant ongoing issues. Collecting hazard specific data via scientific studies and historical analysis is essential. Residual risk The risk that remains in unmanaged form, even when effective disaster risk reduction measures are in place, and for which emergency response and recovery capacities must be maintained. Source: United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
A B C GLOBAL TO STATE Risk Based Planning Equation Figure 11 The Risk Based Planning Equation shows the interrelatedness and passage of residual risk between the three levels of Queensland’s Disaster Management Arrangements as well as the linkage to the Australian Government if support is required. Source: Queensland Fire and Emergency Services 20 Sources of information Global disaster risks • The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015-2030): www.unisdr.org/we/coordinate/ sendai-framework Provision of State resources • The WorldRiskIndex: www.weltrisikobericht.de/ and support services as required/requested english • The World Economic Forum Global Risks Report: www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2017 Provision of State resources Understanding disaster risk components and support services as required/requested • UNISDR – Words into Action Guidelines Governance System, Methodologies, and Use of Results 2017, Consultative version: www.unisdr.org The economic cost of disaster to Australia Provision of Australian Government resources Australian Business Roundtable reports: and support services as required/requested • March, 2016: Building Resilient Infrastructure • March, 2016: The Economic Cost of the Social Impact of Natural Disasters • July, 2014: Building an Open Platform for Disaster Provision of Australian Government resources Resilience Decisions and support services as required/requested • June, 2013: Building our Nation’s Resilience to Natural Au Disasters: australianbusinessroundtable.com.au Risk-based planning process A Risk Assessment Process Handbook has been developed which outlines, in more detail, the processes Au involved in the Queensland Emergency Risk Management Framework, which will be further developed into guidelines with relevant training and capability development. Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
RISK BASED PLANNING EQUATION DISASTER MANAGEMENT ACT 2003 4A GUIDING PRINCIPLES DIV 3, S30 – (A) (F) LOCAL GROUP TO ENSURE (C) LOCAL GOVERNMENT CONSISTENCY WITH RESPONSIBLE FOR STATE (POLICY & OPS) MANAGING EVENTS IN THEIR LOCAL AREA (C) PREPARE A LDM PLAN (D) ADVISE DISTRICT RE SUPPORT SERVICES REQUIRED (H) IDENTIFY AND COORDINATE USE OF RESOURCES THAT MAY BE USED FOR DM OPS DISASTER MANAGEMENT ACT 2003 21 4A GUIDING PRINCIPLES DIV 2, S23 – DISTRICT GROUP TO ENSURE (D) DISTRICT GROUPS CONSISTENCY WITH AND THE STATE GROUP STATE (POLICY & OPS) SHOULD PROVIDE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS (C) PREPARE A DDM PLAN WITH APPROPRIATE (D) (II) REVIEW AND RESOURCES AND ASSESS LDMPS SUPPORT TO HELP LOCAL GOV CARRY (G) COORDINATE STATE OUT DISASTER OPS. RESOURCES AND SERVICES PROVIDED TO SUPPORT LOCAL (H) IDENTIFY RESOURCES THAT MAY BE USED FOR DM OPS IN DISTRICT (I) MAKE PLANS FOR ALLOCATION, COORDINATION OF USE OF RESOURCES IN (H) Sta SStatat te R eteRR equ eqeuqu est esetsst s fo fsofo r A r Ar sAs ssi sissis sta tanta nce cnece NATIONAL STRATEGY NATIONAL NATIONAL NATIONAL FOR DISASTER Australian Australian Australian Government Government Government capability capability andand capability support and mechanisms support support mechanisms mechanisms LENS LENSLENS RESILIENCE
A B C GLOBAL TO STATE 22 Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND 23 The State context B
A B C QUEENSLAND CONTEXT Geography Queensland is the second largest state which reaches the Gulf of Carpentaria as Beyond them is the Great Barrier Reef, in Australia and covers more than 22% a broad tract of salt flats. a series of coral formations stretching of the total Australian continent, an area for about 2,000 kilometres. The far north-west is occupied by a of 1,730,648 square kilometres. rugged uplands region, rich in minerals. Outback Queensland is in stark contrast The coastline of mainland Queensland to the coast with its vast landscape and Eastward, the country rises towards the is approximately 6,973 kilometres long. mining country with flat plains that Great Dividing Range which runs from connect to the inner arid terrain of Queensland has a diverse landscape that the southern border to the northern tip Central Australia. is dominated by its extensive coastline of the State and is the main watershed which is home to more than 60% of its between the coastal and inland rivers. Queensland shares its borders with the resident population. Northern Territory in the west, New South East of the Great Dividing Range, the Wales to the south and South Australia Queensland is essentially a state of country drops seaward in a variety of in the south-west corner. extensive plains which merge into high ranges separated by lowlands. country of sharper relief to the east and This structure is continued in a chain of 24 north-west. To the north, the country mountainous offshore islands sitting on falls gradually to meet the coastal plain the continental shelf. Figure 12 Topographical map of Australia, illustrating the diversity of Queensland’s terrain. Source: shutterstock.com/AridOcean Queensland State Natural Hazard Risk Assessment 2017
QUEENSLAND’S ECONOMY Queensland’s economy Growth in the Queensland economy is More importantly, however, it will Overseas exports are expected to forecast to strengthen over the coming re-establish productivity enhancing grow solidly over the forecast period, years from 2.4% in 2015-16, to 2¾% in infrastructure and restore the productive generally between 3% and 4% per both 2016-17 and 2017-18, and 3% in capacity of affected economies, thereby annum. In addition to the long-expected 2018-19. The 2017-18 Budget is focused supporting ongoing growth and ramp up in LNG exports, coal exports on supporting continued growth and employment across the State. are expected to recover from the fall in creating jobs for Queensland, while 2016-17 induced by STC Debbie. As noted above, the Queensland enabling the State’s $300 billion economy is forecast to strengthen, The 2017-18 Budget features a range economy to be more innovative, diverse from the 2.4% recorded in 2015-16, of further initiatives aimed at optimising and productive. to 2¾% in both 2016-17 and 2017-18, the use of the State’s land and natural The 2017-18 Budget includes a range and 3% in 2018-19. Based on forecasts resources, including promoting of measures which will boost by the Australian Treasury, this is exploration and mining activities productivity and support ongoing longer- stronger than expected national gross through the $27.1 million Strategic term employment including significant domestic product (GDP) growth of 1¾% Resources Exploration Program. infrastructure projects in both South East in 2016-17 and in line with it in 2017-18 Key elements of this initiative also 25 Queensland and regional Queensland as and 2018-19. form part of the government’s overall part of a $42.75 billion four year capital Queensland growth forecasts for 2016-17 package of $39 million over four works program. and 2017-18 would have been higher but years to deliver initiatives to support Operation Queensland Recovery is for the impact of STC Debbie, which is the North West Minerals Province, well underway to recover, reconnect estimated to have detracted around including implementation of the and rebuild more resilient Queensland $2 billion or ¾ percentage point from Queensland Government’s Strategic communities following Severe Tropical economic growth across these years. Blueprint aimed at facilitating a strong Cyclone (STC) Debbie. As at 2 June 2017, and prosperous future for the region. Major impacts from STC Debbie include in the first two months after the cyclone, the loss of around 10 million tonnes To protect the State’s natural assets more than 118,000 people have been of coal exports due to damaged rail and ensure they continue to create assisted. infrastructure, around $300 million wealth for current and future generations Close to $30 million in assistance has of losses to sugar exports and a of Queenslanders, this Budget also already been distributed through the considerable hit to tourism in the allocates $175 million to improve Personal Hardship Assistance Grants and Whitsundays region. With the impact water quality in the Great Barrier Reef, Immediate Hardship Assistance Grants of the resources boom largely reflected safeguard and respond to biosecurity funded under the Natural Disaster Relief in exports and population growth related risks, and develop a Climate and Recovery Arrangements (NDRRA). broadly in line with the national rate, Change Strategy to assist Queensland Queensland’s gross state product to meet its national and international A $14.7 million Community Recovery growth (GSP) is expected to remain obligations related to CO2 emissions Fund has been established and in line with national growth in the targets. additional funding of $2 million has been projection years, at 3%. provided for the government’s Go Local The government’s comprehensive campaign to support the agricultural Business investment continues to Great Barrier Reef Water Quality Program, industry in disaster affected areas. adjust in 2016-17 from the record levels totalling $175 million over five years, experienced during the Liquefied Natural is in addition to the $100 million The Queensland Government is also Gas (LNG) construction boom. Despite provided in 2015-16 to address the expecting to spend over $1 billion to bright spots in tourism and education recommendations arising from the restore essential public assets before and ongoing spending in the coal seam Great Barrier Reef Water Science reimbursements from the Australian gas (CSG) sector, business investment Taskforce. The Budget also includes Government through the jointly-funded in Queensland is expected to be broadly $40 million to revitalise and leverage NDRRA. This investment will rebuild unchanged in 2017-18, before returning value from our national parks through vital infrastructure and supporting to moderate growth from 2018-19 increased tourism and other activities. communities and stimulate significant onward, consistent with the national short term construction activity and growth profile. jobs in these regions.
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