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Introduction
Stephenson Mohl Group (SMG) is a public affairs consultancy based
in the North East of England, working across all regions and nations
of the United Kingdom. We support our clients to deliver investment
and economic growth by helping them navigate the political
landscape that governs planning and policy making, both locally and
nationally.
This report offers developers and investors a preview of May’s
local and regional elections, with insights into key elections,
exploring the potential impact on local policy making.
2021 elections
The postponement of the 2020 local elections means that this year we will see the largest set of local elections since
1973. In addition to council elections, voters across England will also take part in a range of regional and sub-regional
elections. Scotland and Wales will also see elections in the devolved administrations. No polls have been held
anywhere in the UK since March 2020 - a gap unprecedented in modern history. Alongside the challenges posed by
coronavirus this has made this set of elections much more di icult to predict than previous years.
Turnout in local elections has been shrinking but this year many local authorities have been signing up thousands of
new postal voters, due to the pandemic. This combined with the national scale of the elections is likely to create a
minor uplift in turnout Ordinarily, around a third of all votes are cast in advance by post, as opposed to on election day
at the polling station. 2021 postal vote applications are up substantially on previous years and therefore for many, the
election will will have e ectively been decided by around 25 April.
With so many seats due to be contested there is real potential for rebalancing of power within authorities, especially
where there is currently no overall majority. This in turn could translate directly into policy change.
25 c.5000
London Assembly
seats
143 Council seats
129 councils
13
Scottish Parliament
seats
39 60
Senedd seats
directly elected Police Crime
mayors Commissioners
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Politics & Policy
Changes to the political composition of a council or mayoral authority can impact directly on the planning and delivery
of local development. With a bumper set of elections scheduled to take place in May 2021, there is more scope for
political change than in most years and with this comes increased risk for investors and developers. Concerns over
infrastructure, green belt development and wider local plan progression can be contentious at a local level. Often these
issues form the backbone of year-round local party campaigns and can easily translate into fundamental policy shifts
as the political make-up of the council changes.
Understanding the local political pro ile in relation to your portfolio is
essential in enabling you to mitigate investment risks including delays in
delivery, increasing costs and untimely political interventions.
What do people feel are the most important issues facing Britain today?
Covid 19 75%
EU/Brexit 35%
Economy 32%
NHS/Healthcare 20%
Inequality 16%
Education 15%
Unemployment 13%
Climate 12%
Governance 7%
Housing 6%
Source: Ipsos Mori Issues index
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Key Local policy areas
Local councils control considerable multi-million pound budgets and have the last word in providing a
strategic approach to investment and development across their area. As a result the political debate around
many areas of policy is as potent at a local level as it is nationally. The major political parties have national
campaign pledges but also develop localised policy platforms based on the issues and concerns impacting
their locality. These policy areas change over time and across authorities but there are always salient
concerns that feature across the board in local campaigns:
CLimate
Since 2019 almost 75% of the councils in the UK have o icially declared a climate emergency. The declarations came
largely as a result of signi icant public pressure and politically councils are well aware of the need to be seen to be
addressing the issue with policies, as well as promises. There is broad political consensus in terms of the public position
of the major parties with regards to climate change. However the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) examined the
local plans of councils across the UK and concluded that most do not acknowledge the scope of the challenge of
delivering net zero. Changes to local planning policy will require active political will to drive them through.
Housing
The provision of housing continues to be a prominent political issue and demands signi icant resource at a council level.
Many councils are failing to meet their housing targets and are reviewing their local plans to ensure they are it for
housing delivery in the futureWhere councils have compliant development plans it can take the sting out of political
concerns, with members able to refer back to recently updated policies. This in itself however is no guarantee of a stable
local policy landscape. In a number of authorities local development plans have themselves become the major issue
upon which elections are contested. Opposition groups coming into power on the back of pledges to alter development
plans are then compelled to follow through, creating signi icant policy uncertainty.
Economy
The impact of the pandemic makes this an unusual set of local elections as council resources have been stretched
further than ever. While there has been some additional funding from central government, many councils are facing
much wider funding gaps than previously forecast. This has left many having to make very hard decisions about frontline
services which have a direct impact on the lives of voters. The pandemic has highlighted some of the pressures councils
were already under and have been further exacerbated in the last 12 months. This has resulted in councils across the
country choosing to increase council tax. In the November Spending Review the Treasury increased the level of council
tax that can be levied without a local referendum. Research conducted by consumer group ‘Which?’ earlier this year
found that every local authority in England and Wales has chosen to take advantage of this and increase their rates going
into 2021-22.
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Strategic Planning & development
Local Plan - Northumberland
Progress heat map Plan Submitted 29/05/2019
One third of seats to
be contested
Wakefield
Draft Plan published 26/10/2020
One third of seats to
be contested
Middlesbrough
Draft Plan published 09/11/2018
No council elections
Combined Authority
Mayoral Election
Darlington
Draft Plan published 22/12/2020
No council elections
Combined Authority
Mayoral Election
South Tyneside
Plan adopted 207
Review of plan due to commence
One third of seats to
be contested
The red wall
The General Election results in 2019 demonstrated a signi icant move away from Labour. The swing across County
Durham, Teesside and Northumberland was su icient to hand the Conservative party a majority across a number of
constituencies. The long gap in voting caused by the pandemic makes it di icult to accurately predict patterns of
behaviour, not least due to the changing shape and nature of public opinion. Despite this both parties will be watching
closely to assess the extent to which the 2019 results signalled a fundamental and lasting shift in public opinion.
While the Red Wall is far from being a universally accepted framework to predict voting behaviour, it is certainly true that
there are similarities in social and economic pro ile of many of the authorities in the northern belt. Research by the Centre
for Progressive Policy last year warned that Red Wall communities across the across the Midlands and Northern England
are set to su er more than double the permanent losses in economic output projected for the South East. It found that
Red Wall areas are likely to see economic output fall by 12% over the next ive years, compared to the national average of
8%. This is also more than double the average projected losses in regions like the South East at 5%.
Ahead of the May 2021 elections the Conservatives have announced they will be standing signi icantly more candidates in
redwall council areas than they did in 2017. The party is looking to build on its successes and translate this into greater
in luence and in some cases political control of council authorities. In Red Wall council areas including County Durham
and Doncaster the number of Conservative candidates has increased by nearly 50%
Number of candidates fielded by conservatives in key redwall council areas
2021 2017
Doncaster 54 of 55 +26 Doncaster 28 of 55
Durham 110 of 126 +34 Durham 76 of 126
Nottinghamshire 66 of 66 +6 Nottinghamshire 57 of 66
Rotherham 42 of 59 +19 Rotherham 23 of 59
Sheffield 29 of 29 (1/3 seats) Sheffield 53 of 84
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Rise of local interests
There has been a signi icant rise in the representation of local interest and independents on councils across the country in
the last 3 years. Following the 2019 local elections there were 110 Residents Association councillors and a 1044 Independent
councillors. Prior to this there were just 440 Independents. Whether these seats come at the expense of other opposition
groups or the ruling party is the key question when looking at where decision making will lie post election.
In areas where a prominent local issue unites residents there can be a major political swing in favour of a local party or
candidate advocating on their behalf. In other areas where concerns are more complex, borne out of long term issues with
deprivation and a lack of investment by successive Governments, the same dealignment from traditional voting behaviour
occurs but in a far more fragmented way. Hartlepool for example in 2019 elected 11 councillors - 7 of whom were either
independents or from a range minor parties.
NUMBER OF INDEPENDENT PRE 2019 440
COUNCILLORS PRE & POST
2019 LOCAL ELECTIONS POST 2019 1044
SOURCE: BBC
Challenges & Opportunities
Working constructively with councils where local parties and Independents have majority or minority control of the
council can present challenges. The major parties have signi icant experience and institutional knowledge of policy
making and long term social trends within their council areas. Groups that have only ever contributed from the fringes of
opposition lack this experience and it often results in a bumpy few years for policy and decision making.
There is also a far greater chance of instability and splits at a council level, particularly within loose coalitions of
Independent members as seen in Middlesbrough and Hartlepool. Without o icial party structures, these groups which
are largely built around personal relationships are incredibly vulnerable to changes in the dynamics between councillors.
The emergence of local interest and independent led councils will present signi icant challenges as outlined above.
There is scope however to develop constructive and mutually bene icial relationships with these administrations as they
mature. In contrast to the major parties, these groups tend to have fewer and far less less entrenched ideological
redlines which can mean they are more lexible and open to new opportunities.
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NORTH west
North west 2021
There are a number of North West councils where the balance of power
could shift following the elections including Carlisle, Bolton and
Elections
Stockport. With the Lib Dems, Labour and Conservatives all holding out
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hope of making gains in the area the council elections next month are
expected to be particularly hard fought.
Within the Greater Manchester area the proposed Spatial Framework
(GMSF) has become a highly politicised issue. Re-drafted twice already, councils
any delay to get the 10 authorities on board with the plan will be
damaging to Mayor Andy Burnham. Stockport Council has rejected the
plan forcing the 9 remaining authorities to return to the table to agree a
way forward.
This issue is featuring prominently in the local elections of the 10 council
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Police Crime
areas as well as the Greater Manchester Mayoral election. Concerns
around the running of Greater Manchester Police which was recently put
Commissioners
into special measures have also been a major campaign issue.
Voters in Liverpool will elect a new Mayor in May. The Labour group was
dealt a blow in late 2020 with the resignation of Council Mayor Joe
Anderson, following allegations of fraud. The a air has shone light on
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Single Authority
planning a pressures on elected igures. A Government commissioned
report into alleged failings at Liverpool City Council found undue pressure Mayors
being placed on planning o icers and a failure of enforcement to tackle
unlawful development.
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combined Authority
Mayors
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Yorkshire
The North Yorkshire County Council elections due to take place in May 2021
have been postponed. This is due to a potential reorganisation of local Yorkshire 2021
government in the area announced by the MHCLG Secretary of State Robert
Jenrick in February. The consultation launched by Mr Jenrick examines Elections
whether a single county authority or two councils split on an east/west basis
would be preferable as a replacement for the current two-tier system of
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local authorities in North Yorkshire.
Currently at a county level the Conservatives hold control in much of North
Yorkshire while at a metropolitan and district level Labour is the dominant
force. Existing councillors and statutory committees at both levels will
councils
continue to function until a replacement authority structure is agreed and
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put in place.
Council elections in the west of the county are likely to be overshadowed
somewhat by the election of the irst West Yorkshire Combined Authority
Mayor. All 5 Council authorities in West Yorkshire backed the devolution plan Police Crime
in 2020 with it expected to come into law in February. Commissioners
The She ield City Region mayoralty, currently under Labour Mayor and
Barnsley Central MP, Dan Jarvis will not be contested until 2022. The mayoral
authority was created to re lect councils in Derbyshire and North
Nottinghamshire which were part of the authority and were closely linked
economically. Later this year the authority is expected to be rebranded as
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Single Authority
South Yorkshire Combined Authority to better re lect the geographical
make-up of the area. Mayor
Council elections are set to go ahead in She ield, with a third of seats up
this year. The Labour-led council remains a powerhouse for the party, with
the emerging draft She ield Local Plan currently under consultation. Over
the next 18 years the Labour-led authority has identi ied need for nearly
40,000 new homes to match a growing population. There is also a large
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combined Authority
demand for more a ordable housing and the council predicts it will need
900 extra a ordable homes per year over the next ive years to meet this.
Mayor
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fNORTH EAST
The 2019 General Election saw a big shift away from Labour in the North East
“red wall”. The Conservative party made gains in Blyth in Northumberland, North East 2021
North West Durham, Sedge ield, Bishop Auckland and Stockton South in
what was the worst election result for Labour since 1935.
Elections
With all-out elections across Northumberland and Durham county councils,
as well as polls across the ive metropolitan authorities in Tyne and Wear,
there is plenty in play for both main parties. Northumberland County Council
will be of particular interest as the results come in. The Conservative
minority administration holds power by virtue of a very slender margin and
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councils
with Labour looking to reclaim seats in the east of the county, even a minor
rebalancing at ward level could result in a change in council control.
In Tyneside the Liberal Democrats and independents are targeting a handful
of seats across each authority, putting Labour controlled wards in South
Tyneside and Sunderland in particular under pressure. Labour is likely to
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Police Crime
lose some seats in both authorities but this will not impact on the party’s
control of the respective councils. North Tyneside will be voting on the Commissioners
directly elected mayor as well as ward councillors. Labour’s Norma Redfearn
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enjoys widespread support in the borough and is expected to be returned
for a third term.
On Teesside, Mayor Ben Houchen is up for re-election for the irst time. A
strong political operator, Houchen has spent much of the last four years Single Authority
making announcements on investment in regeneration of former industrial
Mayor
sites, job growth and bringing Teesside Airport under public ownership.
Jesse Jo Jacobs is Labour’s challenger. A well known local activist, Jacobs is
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Director of Food and Drink North East.
Alongside the local and regional elections Hartlepool will electing a new
Member of Parliament following the resignation of Labour’s Mike Hill MP.
combined Authority
Mayor
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fNorth east - A New Regional Mayor?
The North of Tyne combined authority encompassing Newcastle, North Tyneside and northumberland was established on 1
November 2018. Despite the name "North of Tyne," parts of Northumberland to the south of the river are also included.
Many in the region and particularly those authorities North of Tyne had advocated a broader regional Mayor to cover areas
between the Scottish border and the Tees Valley combined Authority. With pressures on councils now greater than ever
there is a renewed push to establish an ‘LA7’ Mayoral authority - mirroring the political setup in other northern areas
including Tees Valley and Greater Manchester.
The proposed LA7 would include:
Newcastle Sunderland South Tyneside Northumberland Gateshead County Durham north Tyneside
The primary policy driver behind the move to an LA7 Mayoral Authority is to take greater control of transport to deliver a
better funded and more interconnecting network. The current North of Tyne Combined Authority devolved powers are
limited when compared to those enjoyed by Mayors elsewhere in the country. The Mayor has access to an investment fund
of just £20m a year over 30 years – a small fraction of what has been o ered to other areas. Without powers over key areas
such as transport, housing and welfare, the mayor is severely limited in what they can deliver for the North of Tyne.
The pressure to establish an LA7 combined mayoral authority is coming largely from the labour leadership of the involved
councils. It is hoped that this can be agreed between them and with central Government in time to have elections for a
regional mayor by 2023. The plan would supersede the North of Tyne Mayoral role and broaden the scheduled election in
2023 to cover all 7 authorities.
If North east councils move to progress
the LA7 model it is likely the current
North of Tyne Mayor will be subjected
to a fresh selection and election under
a new Mayoral CA deal.
ffOnes to watch - elections 2021
With so many elections in May next month it may be di icult to decide which is most important/likely to
impact ongoing work with the council. There are three areas in the North East that are worth paying particular
attention to - Hartlepool, Northumberland and County Durham. These areas are indicative of the challenges
facing parties and the electorate alike in authority areas right across England.
1. Hartlepool By-Election
- Key ‘mid-term’ test for Government
- Litmus test for Conservatives in Tees Valley given levels of investment put into the area
- 10 parties and 6 Independents standing - 16 candidates in total
- Lab increased majority in 2019 General Election 3
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2. County Durham Council Elections
- All out county wide elections
- Labour have controlled Durham at a local level since 1919
- Key conservative target area
- Huge swing to conservatives in 2019 general election
3.Northumberland Council elections
- One of the irst redwall areas to move away from labour - in 2017
- Minority Conservative administration has precarious control over council
- Recent controversies within the local party may damage Conservative election hopes
- Lib Dems targeting modest gains in former areas of support
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ffHartlepool by-election
The Hartlepool by-election will be seen as a litmus test for Keir Starmer’s Labour
party while a victory for the Conservatives will lend further credence to the theory
around the crumbling of the ‘red wall’.
In reality the picture is more complex with a highly fractured political landscape.
The internal splits and breakdown of the Hartlepool local Labour party in recent
years lost them control of the council while at a constituency level, Labour
increased their vote share in the 2019 general election.
The Conservative candidate is a farmer from Yorkshire and some have questioned
Parties contesting seat
how well this will play with thew largely urban electorate in Hartlepool. The
selection has boosted Labour campaigners morale with a sense that the party’s GP
candidate and for Stockton North MP Paul Williams commands greater name
recognition on the door step.
There are 16 candidates standing in the by-election including 7 Independents.
Thelma Walker, an ex Labour MP recently joined the new Northern Independence
Party (NIP) which failed to register with the electoral commission in time. Walker is
standing as an Independent at the by -election but will be aligned with NIP.
The broad spectrum of parties and independents standing at the election will
undoubtedly split the vote of the major parties and will be a contributing factor in
any surprise result. Reform UK are looking to build on the strong Brexit vote in the
2016 referendum in Hartlepool
by-election polling
39% 36%
18 -21 march
42% 49%
29 Mar - 3 aprDurham council elections
All out local elections always present the potential for a change in political
2021 candidates
control, however remote. In County Durham while it is a numeric possibility,
in reality the current Labour administration expects to come out of the
by Party
elections with its hold over the council intact. This is not to say however that
the party won’t su er defeats at a ward level. Voting trends suggest Labour
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will likely end election night with fewer seats in Durham than they currently
have, losing out largely to the bene it of the Conservatives.
The Conservative Party has been somewhat rehabilitated within the county
and will be looking to build on their heir 2019 general election success. A Labour Candidates
sizeable increase in vote-share at a council level would be seen as a victory in
the area for the Conservatives and lend further credence to the notion that
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the erosion of the ‘red wall’ is an ongoing phenomenon.
The Party has signi icantly increased the number of candidates standing in
the county from 76 in 2017 to 110 this year. The Conservatives are hoping to
capture the vote of those who usually back Independents and small parties, Conservative
as well as a proportion of the Labour vote. Against the national trend, there candidates
are far fewer independents standing ion county durham this time and this will
likely work to the bene it of the Conservatives over Labour.
Any reduction in Labour’s numbers will directly translate into the political
composition of key decision making bodies such as statutory committees.
This will make it more di icult for the party members on committees to wave
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Independent
through projects and proposals backed by the leadership. The countywide
council elections should boost Labour’s chances in the Police Crime Candidates
Commissioner contest with a bigger turnout expected than if the pcc
elections were held in isolation.
County durham Wards to watch:
- Crook
- Lanchester
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Lib Dem candidates
- Dawdon
+ 51 others
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fNorthumberland council elections
The Conservatives lead Northumberland Council as a minority administration,
supported uno icially by a range of independents. The party’s control of the
2021 candidates
council is at best precarious and very vulnerable to relatively minor shifts in
voting behaviour. In some cases the Conservatives have a majority as little as
by Party
35 votes in the seats won from Labour and the Lib Dems in 2017.
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Labour is targeting seats in the east of the county, focussing signi icant
resource on those lost to Independents last time around. A shift in political
control would undoubtedly lead to a reassessment of current policy and in
particular the current administration's recently published draft local plan.
Housing delivery and greenbelt protection is a highly politicised issue in Conservative
Northumberland and it seems likely a Labour led or majority administration
candidates
would look to boost housing numbers in the plan.
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In terms of the election campaign and conservative electoral hopes next
month, the public airing of internal splits and removal of the then Conservative
Leader Peter Jackson in 2020 was incredibly untimely. The party came to power
in 2017 partly on the back of promises to ‘clean up’ the council and increase
transparency. The episode has meant much of the political discourse on all Labour candidates
sides in Northumberland is inward facing and more about point-scoring than
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policy development. With embattled former Council Leader Peter Jackson
contesting his Ponteland South and Heddon seat, it will be worth noting
whether there is a notable reduction in the Conservative vote-share in what is a
super-safe seat for the party.
Lib Dem candidates
The Liberal Democrats have a reasonable chance of taking back some of their
former seats such as Berwick North and Norham & Islandshires, lost to the
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Conservatives and Independents in 2017.
Northumberland Wards to watch:
- Morpeth Kirkhill
- Berwick North
Independent
- Bedlington West Candidates
+ 26 others
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fElections 2021 - Summary
Decision Making
Councils across the country are seeing far more Independent councillors elected. In many cases this
translates directly into their inclusion on the planning committees and therefore a fragmentation of power
structures at a decision making level. With this potentially comes lower reliability of certain Local
Authorities as investment partners or places to do business.
Redwall
These are elections are a key moment for red wall areas. The Conservatives will be hoping the voters
moving away from Labour in historically red areas as seen at the 2019 General Election is part if an ongoing
pattern. This will have real consequences on ground for personnel a ecting policy and decisions across
the north of England.
National
The scale of these elections means the results will have an impact on the national political narrative. The
Conservatives must continue to make gains in the redwall for the elections to be perceived a success for
them. This will always be a challenge for a party that has been in power for over a decade but the 2019
results showed it is possible.
Devolution
As councils around the country look to embrace the additional powers and funding available via devolution
deals with Government we can expect to see fresh moves to establish an elected mayor for North East.
This would enable the 7 councils to look at the current North of Tyne package and push Government for a
better deal for the region.
Policy
In the event the Conservatives have a poor night and see their numbers reduced in their rural heartlands
we may see a subsequent re examining of planning policy at a national level. The Johnson Government
approach to planning has been framed as one of the tools to achieve levelling up but has proved
controversial among the party’s supporters. This may have to be looked at again if their is sizeable damage
to the party in their traditional areas of support.
ffHow SMG can help
The elections present a major political event with the potential for signi icant change at a local level. Any change in
political composition can have a direct impact on the viability of projects, placing investment pipelines at risk. The
team at SMG is uniquely positioned to help your business plan for uncertainty and mitigate political risk.
Local Government & Planning
Politics is at the heart of every planning decision. We have extensive experience of successfully delivering planning
consents for projects totalling in excess of £2 billion across housing, extra care, retail, energy and major
infrastructure. Success in the planning system relies on political support and we build positive and sustainable
relationships with key stakeholders on behalf of our clients. We explore partnerships with key authorities and map
out engagement strategies to shape emerging policies and land allocations.
Public Affairs
Sustainable relationships with decision makers has never been more important. Our experts at SMG deliver
engagement strategies building long-term links between our clients and policy makers. We work at every level of
Government and across the political spectrum. Regionally we work closely with policy and decision makers from
every branch of local Government to navigate political and regulatory hurdles while building constructive, long term
relationships for our clients.
Market Appraisal
SMG is uniquely positioned to provide political due diligence in the form of a market appraisal. We enhance your
ability to detect the level of risk or opportunity associated with particular locations as you plan your land strategy for
the immediate, medium or long term. We deliver a tailored intelligence service, providing crucial data on strategic
land opportunities, emerging policy and shifting political priorities. Through extensive research across industry and
policy making bodies, we map risks and unpack the indings to make recommendations on viable areas for
commercial growth.
Strategic Counsel
We understand that every statement or decision made by a business carries with it commercial and political
implications. At SMG our expertise and knowledge is on hand in the boardroom to inform and support the business
critical decisions our clients make every day. Our wide network of land owners, planners and policy makers and
experience working across local and national government gives our team unique insight.
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fSMG Senior Team
MARK STEPHENSON
DIRECTOR
Mark has extensive experience working with business leaders and policy makers to raise
awareness and deliver policy change. Mark founded SMG in 2018 as a business consultancy
specialising in political and stakeholder engagement with a clear focus on delivering bene its
for the UK through its work with local, national and global stakeholders. Mark's considerable
expertise and experience working across government and the private sector has helped
position SMG as the regions leading dedicated Public A airs consultancy.
CHRIS MCHUGH
HEAD OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS
A former member of local government in Gateshead, Chris took up politics full time, and has
since led the o ices of two front bench MPs. Chris has a broad experience in campaigns and
policy making at local, regional and national levels and knows how to in luence decision-
making. Chris joined SMG in 2019 as Head of Public A airs and leads on our regional and
Westminster political engagement.
REBECCA JOHNSON
HEAD OF COMMUNICATIONS
Rebecca is an experienced CIPR accredited communicator, with over a decade working in
political-facing roles for organisations spanning the private, public and third sectors. Rebecca
leads on scoping and mapping exercises for organisations from around the world to
recommend and deliver e ective & comprehensive communications programmes to in luence
and inform policy makers.
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fFind out more & get in touch with us on:
contact@stephenson-mohl.co.uk
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