ON THE ROAD BACK: METRICS OF NEW YORK CITY'S RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 ONE YEAR LATER - CBRE
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Updated: March 16, 2021
ON THE ROAD BACK:
METRICS OF NEW YORK CITY’S
RECOVERY FROM COVID-19
ONE YEAR LATER
OVERVIEW RECOVERY UPDATE: RECOVERY GAINS STEAM AS VACCINATIONS ACCELERATE AND FEDERAL RESOURCES ARE DIRECTED TO CITY • One year after Covid-19 ground life in NYC to a halt, there are ubiquitous signs of economic recovery and civic health. An accelerating immunization campaign stemmed a rising infection rate in February and permitted the city to accelerate its reopening plans in March, resulting in busier streets and subways. On March 11, the American Rescue Plan was signed into law, promising $6 billion in direct financial aid to NYC and an additional $6.5 to the MTA – ensuring that critical public services and robust transit schedules will be maintained in 2021. The receding virus and promise of federal assistance are expected to stiffen the region’s recovery which is showing promising signs of acceleration. • Offices Slowly Reoccupy: Office occupancy continued to tick upwards in March to levels not seen since October. Rising weekday passenger counts on the MTA’s commuter railroads indicate that some workers are ready to return to their Manhattan offices. • Residents and Visitors Return to Manhattan: Residential leasing and property sales resumed their record-setting run of transactions in February and the city’s hotels experienced a sizeable increase in reservations in January. The lifting of quarantine requirements for domestic travelers and further reopening plans for live entertainment, expected to take effect in April, will further encourage a return to Manhattan by city residents as well as visitors. • Transit Ridership Rises as City Reopens: Warming weather and vaccine availability have improved the city’s labor market and mobility as more New Yorkers return to the transit system to commute to jobs and access leisure activities. The subway notched some of the highest ridership counts since March 2020 this month, as nearly two million riders entered the system each weekday during the week of March 7. CBRE
TABLE OF CONTENTS – NEW YORK CITY RECOVERY INDICATORS
Office-Using Consumer Spending Construction Permits
Infection Rates Vaccination Rates Unemployment Insurance Claims Private Sector Employment Employment Pg. 10 Pg. 11
Economy
Pg. 5 Pg. 6 pg. 7 Pg. 8 Pg. 9
Office Market
Office Availability Leasing Activity Sublease Space Net Effective Rents Office Key Card Swipes
Pg. 12 Pg. 13 Pg. 14 Pg. 15 Pg. 16
Manhattan Foot Traffic
Apartment Rent Restaurant Reservations Small Businesses Open Hotel Occupancy University Status
Pg. 17
Pg. 18 Pg. 19 Pg. 20 Pg. 21 Pg. 22
Civic Life
Mobility NYC Transit & Tolls MTA Commuter Rail Air Passengers Infrastructure Status
Pg. 23 Pg. 24 Pg. 25 Pg. 26 Pg. 23
Mobility
CBRE75% or more
Sources for data available on subsequent slides
50% or less
Manhattan Office Key
12%
50-75%
Card Swipes
24%
Air Traffic Passengers
25%
Restaurant Reservations
Commuter Rail
27%
Ridership
30%
Hotel Occupancy
34%
Foot Traffic
35%
Subway Ridership
53%
Mobility
RANKING NYC’S RECOVERY INDICATORS
59%
Businessess Open
Current Measures vs. Pre-COVID Levels
63%
Construction Permits
Private Sector
86%
Employment
90%
Apartment Rent
Office-Using
91%
Employment
95%
Consumer Spending
CBRE
80%
90%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
100%
0%
Pre-Covid LevelTRI-STATE COVID-19 INFECTIONS
-32%
Weekly New Infections Below New York City’s first
120,000
infection peak in April
Most recent data: March 13, 2021
100,000 • New York City’s test positivity rate was
88,968 4.0% for the week ending March 13.
80,000
• New York State’s test positivity rate
COVID-19 Cases
60,535 averaged 3.1% for the week ending
60,000 March 13. Nationally, the test positivity
rate for the same time period was 4.6%.
40,000
• With the infection rate falling, NYC
continues to reopen and expand indoor
20,000 capacity at bars, restaurants, and
entertainment venues.
0
• Live indoor performance venues like
3/7/21
3/1/20
3/15/20
3/29/20
4/12/20
4/26/20
5/10/20
5/24/20
6/7/20
6/21/20
7/5/20
7/19/20
8/2/20
8/16/20
8/30/20
9/13/20
9/27/20
10/11/20
10/25/20
11/8/20
11/22/20
12/6/20
12/20/20
1/3/21
1/17/21
1/31/21
2/14/21
2/28/21
Broadway theaters and comedy clubs
will likely require a test positivity rate
Week Starting closer to 1% to begin reopening.
Source: CBRE Research, The New York Times.
CBREVACCINATIONS ADMINISTERED IN NYC
9%
Weekly Vaccinations Administered to all NYS Residents in NYC of NYC residents have been
3,000,000 fully vaccinated
Most recent data: March 15, 2021
2,500,000
Vaccinations Administered in NYC
• Vaccines from Pfizer, Johnson &
Johnson, and Moderna are all available
2,000,000 in the Tri-State region, which has
increased availability and allowed for
1,500,000 around-the-clock vaccinations.
• New York City’s vaccination rate of 9%
1,000,000
lags the region’s suburbs which are
averaging vaccination rates of 10-15%
500,000 as of March 15.
0 • NYC remains a crucial hub of
vaccination efforts with major facilities
12/19/20
12/26/20
1/2/21
1/9/21
1/16/21
1/23/21
1/30/21
2/6/21
2/13/21
2/20/21
2/27/21
3/6/21
3/13/21
at Citi Field, Yankee Stadium, and the
Javits Center providing tens of
Week Ending
thousands of daily injections.
Source: CBRE Research, New York City Dept. of Health and Mental Hygiene.
CBRENYC UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE INITIAL CLAIMS
-90%
Weekly Claim Totals Decline in weekly claims
200,000
since April peak
184.5 Most recent data: March 6, 2021
180,000
160,000 • Claims for unemployment insurance
Unemployment Claims (Thousands)
spiked in late March and early April
140,000
as New York City businesses laid off
120,000 hundreds of thousands of
100,000 employees to cope with the fallout
of measures taken to curb the
80,000 spread of COVID-19.
60,000
• Prior to COVID-19, weekly
40,000
unemployment insurance claims
18.1
20,000 typically number around 6,500.
0
• Weekly claims have generally
4/4/20
5/2/20
8/8/20
9/5/20
1/9/21
2/6/21
3/6/21
3/21/20
4/18/20
5/16/20
5/30/20
6/13/20
6/27/20
7/11/20
7/25/20
8/22/20
9/19/20
10/3/20
1/23/21
2/20/21
10/17/20
10/31/20
11/14/20
11/28/20
12/12/20
12/26/20
hovered between 20,000 and 30,000
since November but are expected to
Week Ending
fall further as vaccine distribution
and warming weather improves the
Source: CBRE Research, New York State Department of Labor. hiring landscape.
CBRENYC PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT
86%
Seasonally-Adjusted Payroll Employment NYC private sector employment
compared to pre-COVID peak
4,200
4,101 Most recent data: December 2020
4,000
• After peaking in February 2020, New York
Employment (Thousands)
City’s private sector employment fell by
3,800
23% to a low of 3.18 million in April,
driven by enormous losses in the retail
3,600 and hospitality sectors.
3,515
• As New York City’s infection rate declined
3,400
through April and May, these sectors
returned some of their employees to the
3,200 workforce but this recovery has slowed
3,178 significantly as winter set in.
3,000
• So far, NYC has recovered 38% of the
Dec-20
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
private jobs lost. Job gains are expected
to accelerate in the spring and improve
steadily through 2021.
Source: CBRE Research, St. Louis FRED.
CBRENYC OFFICE-USING EMPLOYMENT
91%
Seasonally-Adjusted Payroll Employment NYC office-using employment
compared to pre-COVID peak
Most recent data: December 2020
1,850
1,822 • New York City’s office-using employment
(OUE) fell by 13% to a low of about 1.58
1,800
million in May, driven by contractions in
administrative, hospitality, finance,
Employment (Thousands)
1,750 insurance, and real estate positions.
1,700 • Office-using sectors returned some
1,657 furloughed employees starting in June as
businesses adjusted to the remote
1,650
economy and resumed operations.
1,600 • While OUE suffered fewer losses than the
1,581 retail and hospitality sectors, it has also
1,550 been slower to recover with only 32% of
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
jobs recouped so far. In addition, U.S. data
show office-based workers are being
moved from temporary furloughs to
permanent lay-offs.
Source: CBRE Research, St. Louis FRED.
CBRECONSUMER SPENDING – NYC METROPOLITAN AREA
95%
Weekly Spending Activity Index NYC metro weekly consumer
spending compared to January
120% 2020
Most recent data: February 28, 2021
Consumer Spending (base Jan 2020)
110%
• Consumer spending has steadily
101%
100% recovered after falling over 40% in
March.
90% 95%
• The partial reopening of the economy
80% that began in June, combined with
spending power supported via the
70%
government stimulus checks and financial
60% aid and have kept consumer spending
elevated.
50%
2/21/21
• Additional government stimulus checks
3/1/20
3/15/20
3/29/20
4/12/20
4/26/20
5/10/20
5/24/20
6/7/20
6/21/20
7/5/20
7/19/20
8/2/20
8/16/20
8/30/20
9/13/20
9/27/20
10/11/20
10/25/20
11/8/20
11/22/20
12/6/20
12/20/20
1/3/21
1/17/21
1/31/21
2/14/21
and financial aid approved in the
American Rescue Plan should continue to
Week Starting support the consumer spending recovery.
New York Metropolitan Area United States
Source: CBRE Research, Opportunity Insights.
CBRENYC DEPT. OF BUILDINGS NEW CONSTRUCTION PERMITS 63%
Year-over-Year Comparisons of Total Monthly Permits Issued* Monthly permits issued for new
120% construction and demolition,
compared to 2019
100% Most recent data: February 2021
Construction
• On March 27, the State of New York
Index of Construction Permitting (Base 2019)
Moratorium
80% issued a mandate that restricted
construction to only essential projects
63% including medical buildings and
60%
affordable housing.
40% • On June 8, this moratorium was lifted,
resulting in an immediate spike in
20% issuances for permits relating to building
demolition and new building site prep
work.
0%
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
• Construction spending in NYC was
decelerating prior to COVID and is
Permits for New Construction expected to fall further, however new
housing and infrastructure initiatives
Source: CBRE Research, NYC Department of Buildings. could be a shot in the arm for the
* Includes permitting for all construction activity (commercial, individual, government, etc.). industry in the coming years.
CBREMANHATTAN OFFICE AVAILABILITY 48%
Monthly Availability Rate and Total Available Square Footage Increase in available square
footage of office space since
75,000,000 17% February 2020
Most Recent Data: February 2021
70,000,000 16% • Manhattan registered a record
low absorption of negative 17.7
65,000,000
15% million sq. ft. in 2020 and another
Availability Rate
Availability (Sq. Ft.)
negative 7.2 million sq. ft. thus far
60,000,000
14%
in 2021.
55,000,000
• The Manhattan availability rate has
13% climbed 513 basis points (bps) from
50,000,000
11.6% in February 2020 to 16.7% in
45,000,000 12% February 2021.
40,000,000 11% • Midtown South has seen the largest
increase in available space (62.1%),
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
followed by Midtown (45.6%) and
Downtown (44.5%).
Availabile Square Feet Availability Rate
Source: CBRE Research.
CBRELEASING ACTIVITY SAW SUDDEN DROP-OFF IN 2020 AS THE
COVID CRISIS UNFOLDED
MANHATTAN MONTHLY LEASING ACTIVITY VS. 5-YEAR MONTHLY AVERAGE
69%
below the five-year monthly
4.00 4
Leasing Activity average
Millions
3.50 3.5 Most Recent Data: February 2021
3.57 3.50
3.00 3 • Muted leasing persisted since the
3.05 3.11 onset of the pandemic in mid-
2.98
2.81 2.76 March.
Millions of sq. ft.
2.50 2.5
2.46 2.50 2.41
2.00 2.20 2 • February 2021’s 640,000 sq. ft.
2.10 69% of leasing activity was slightly
below
1.50 1.69
5-year
average 1.5 behind the 728,000 sq. ft.
average seen since April 2020.
1.37 1.32
1.00 1.26 1
0.840.79 0.92
0.50 0.72 0.69 0.64 0.5
0.52 0.52 0.56 0.48
0.00 0
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
2019 2020 2021
CBRE
Source: CBRE Research. Data as of March 1, 2021.69%
MANHATTAN SUBLEASE SPACE HAS ADDED A NET 7.8 MSF SINCE
YEAR-END 2019 (+69%)
SUBLET AVAILABLE SPACE
25.0 annual increase in sublease
space
Most Recent Data: February 2021
69%
20.0 increase
• Manhattan saw a net addition of
15.0 7.8 million sq. ft. reaching 19.1
million sq. ft. of sublease space at
year-end 2020.
10.0 19.1 • The amount of sublease space on
17.2
the market is now greater than the
11.3
peak level of 16.4 million sq. ft.
5.0 9.2 10.3 witnessed during the Great Financial
8.3
6.6 Crisis and the 18.4 million sq. ft. of
sublease space that was on the
0.0 market following the dotcom/9-11
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD 2021 recession.
CBRE
Source: CBRE Research. Data as of March 1, 2021.NET EFFECTIVE RENTS (NER) FELL 22% FROM 2019
AVERAGE ASKING RENT VS. TAKING RENT VS. NET EFFECTIVE RENTS
22%
NER decline since YE 2019
Most Recent Data: February 2021
Asking Rent Taking Rent NER
$85
• ASKING RENT DOWN
• Since YE 2019 : (4.0%)
$80 $77.23
• Since Start of Pandemic
$75 (March-Feb.) : (5.1%)
$70 $66.13
• TAKING RENT DOWN
$65 • Since YE 2019 : (13.8%)
$60 • Since Start of Pandemic
$55 (March-Feb.) : (12.4%)
$50
• NET EFFECTIVE RENTS DOWN
$45 $40.43 • Since YE 2019 : (22.4%)
$40 • Since Start of Pandemic
(March-Feb.) : (19.9%)
$35
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F
2019 2020 2021
CBRE
Source: CBRE Research. Data as of March 1, 2021.UNIQUE KEY CARD SWIPES IN CBRE MANAGED OFFICE BUILDINGS 12%
Weekly Average Percent of Total Active Key Cards | Manhattan & Suburban Average weekly key card swipes
45%
in Manhattan office buildings,
40%
compared to total active cards
38% Most Recent Data: March 5, 2021
35%
Percent of Maximum Building Occupancy
30%
• NYS ordered all non-essential workers to
stay at home beginning March 20, 2020.
25% 28%
• On June 22, non-essential places of
20% business, including office buildings, were
15% allowed to reopen at 50% capacity.
12%
10%
• Manhattan office building occupancy has
5% wavered between 6-12% since
6%
0% reopening in June but seems to be rising
as the weather warms and vaccination
6/21/20
7/5/20
7/19/20
8/2/20
8/16/20
8/30/20
9/13/20
9/27/20
10/11/20
10/25/20
11/8/20
11/22/20
12/6/20
12/20/20
1/3/21
1/17/21
1/31/21
2/14/21
2/28/21
efforts expand.
Manhattan Average Office Building Reoccupancy Suburbs Average Office Building Reoccupancy • Suburban occupancy rates have
consistently outperformed Manhattan
and experienced strong growth in late
Source: CBRE Property Management.
February and early March.
CBREF O O T T R A F F I C I N M A N H A T T A N B E L O W 9 6 TH S T R E E T
34%
Total Weekly Smartphone “Heartbeat” Data – 2020 vs. 2019 Weekly total smart phone
“heartbeats” in Manhattan south
Foot Traffic (Compared to same month in 2019)
100% of 96th St., compared to the same
90% week in 2019
80% Most recent data: January 2021
70% • The number of “heartbeats” from unique,
60% individual cell phones found in Manhattan
50% south of 96th Street fell precipitously in
March and continued to rise again the
40%
34% summer as the infection positivity rate
30% declined.
20%
10% • The phased reopening in June spurred a
recovery of activity to 57% by the end of
0%
August but this activity moderated and
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
declined in the winter.
• The holiday season boosted foot traffic in
Foot Traffic Below 96th Street Manhattan in December, but activity fell
off again in January when infection rates
Source: CBRE Research, CBRE Location Intelligence, Mobile Insights.
rose and restaurants closed.
CBRERESIDENTIAL RENT AND LEASING IN MANHATTAN
90%
Indices of Monthly Average of Rent and Leasing Activity 2019 vs. 2020 Average Manhattan apartment
rent compared to
110% 200% February 2019
Leases (Compared to same month in 2019)
105%
Most Recent Data: February 2021
Rent (Compared to same month in 2019)
$4,503
100% • Average Manhattan rents declined
125% by roughly 17% between April and
95% November and vacancy rates tripled
90%
before compressing again starting in
December 2020.
$3,791
85%
50%
• Sliding prices and rising concessions
80% have helped restore monthly leasing
75%
volume which has been hitting
record highs since the early winter
70% -25% as thousands of apartments get
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
snapped up at a discount.
Rent Leases • The occupancy rate in Manhattan’s
multifamily market is 95.0% as of
February 2021 compared to 98.2% in
Source: CBRE Research, Douglas Elliman. February 2019.
CBRERESTAURANT RESERVATIONS IN MANHATTAN 25%
YoY Change in Weekly Dining Reservations Volume of seated dinner
reservations YoY
120% Most recent data: March 13, 2021
Dinner Reservations (Compared to Same Week in 2019)
100% Indoor Dining Indoor • New York City has emerged from its
Ban Dining Ban second ban on indoor dining, which
80%
formally ended after two months of
February 12.
60%
• Restaurants are will be permitted to
increase dining room capacity from 25%
40% to 35% on February 26.
20% • Diners responded immediately to the
lifting of the indoor dining ban with
0% reservations doubling week-over-week
as New Yorkers hurried to make
3/7/21
2/16/20
3/1/20
3/15/20
3/29/20
4/12/20
4/26/20
5/10/20
5/24/20
6/7/20
6/21/20
7/5/20
7/19/20
8/2/20
8/16/20
8/30/20
9/13/20
9/27/20
10/11/20
10/25/20
11/8/20
11/22/20
12/6/20
12/20/20
1/3/21
1/17/21
1/31/21
2/14/21
2/28/21
Valentines Day reservations.
Week Starting
• 92% of NYC restaurants failed to make
Seated Dinner Reservations their December rent payments as the
Source: CBRE Research, OpenTable. industry continues to struggle with the
absence of commuters and visitors.
CBRESMALL BUSINESSES OPEN IN NYC
Weekly Count as a Percent of Businesses Open in January 2020
59%
Number of small
businesses open as
120% compared to January 2020
Samll Business Open (Compared to January 2020)
Most Recent Data: February 27, 2021
100%
80% • NYC businesses steadily opened
their doors as the city progressed
60% 59% through the four phases of
reopening between early June and
40% mid-July but this progress plateaued
in the summer and reversed slightly
20%
in the winter.
0%
• Depressed tourism and absence of
2/21/21
3/1/2020
3/15/2020
3/29/2020
4/12/2020
4/26/2020
5/10/2020
5/24/2020
6/7/2020
6/21/2020
7/5/2020
7/19/2020
8/2/2020
8/16/2020
8/30/2020
9/13/2020
9/27/2020
10/11/2020
10/25/2020
11/8/2020
11/22/2020
12/6/2020
12/20/2020
1/3/2021
1/17/2021
1/31/2021
2/14/2021
commuters, restrictions on
entertainment venues and capacity,
Week Starting and seating limits for bars and
restaurants have prevented many
Samll Businesses Open
businesses from opening their
doors.
Source: CBRE Research, Opportunity Insights.
CBREMANHATTAN HOTEL OCCUPANCY
30%
Index of Hotel Occupancy 2020/2021 vs. 2019 of Manhattan hotel
120% rooms occupied compared to
January 2019
Hotel Occupancy (Compared to same month in 2019)
100%
Most Recent Data: January 2021
• Hotel occupancy plummeted in
80% Manhattan as the global travel
industry shut down and the U.S.
60% placed restrictions on international
travel.
40% • Cancellation of local entertainment
30% and business trade events, as well as
20% limitations on corporate travel,
further curtailed hotel occupancy.
0% • The closure of over 200 hotels
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
means that occupancy levels could
be restored as early as 2023,
however pre-pandemic visitor
counts are not expected until 2025.
Source: CBRE Research, Kalibri Labs.
CBRESPRING SEMESTER AT NYC UNIVERSITIES
85%
Status of Residence Halls and Instructional Method at NYC’s 15 Largest Universities Enrollment in U.S. colleges
School Enrollment (2018) Residence Halls Classes
and universities as
compared to Fall 2019
City University of New York 273,368 Open Predominantly Remote estimated April 2020
New York University 51,847 Open Hybrid
• Estimates place Fall 2020
Columbia University 31,077 Open Predominantly Remote
enrollments at U.S. colleges
St. John’s University 21,365 Open Hybrid and universities as being
Fordham University 16,515 Open Hybrid down 15-20% compared to
Pace University 13,326 Open Hybrid Fall 2019.
Touro College 11,800 Open Hybrid
• Enrollment for international
The New School 10,544 Open Hybrid
students, too, is expected to
Yeshiva University 6,479 Open Hybrid drop by 25% as travel
Monroe College 6,386 Open Hybrid restrictions prevent many
Pratt Institute 5,015 Open Hybrid from getting to campus.
Columbia Teachers
4,549 Open Predominantly Remote • Diminished enrollment in NYC
College
colleges and universities is
School of Visual Arts 4,390 Open Hybrid
likely contributing to declining
ASA College 4,356 N/A Hybrid demand for rental housing
Manhattan College 4,232 Open Hybrid and diminished foot traffic in
CBRE Sources listed on page 24 Manhattan.MOBILITY MEASURES
53%
Number of Requests for Directions in Apple Maps Compared to January 2020 of Apple Maps users
150%
requested directions via public
transit compared to January
130%
2020
110% 99% Most Recent Data: March 6, 2021
% of Time Spent iin Transit
90%
• Concern over the safety of public
70%
70% transit fueled a considerable mode-
shift among Apple Maps users
50%
53% towards driving.
30%
• Reduced mobility among walkers
10% and transit riders suggests the
(10)% absence of workers and visitors
navigating their way across the
3/1/20
3/15/20
3/29/20
4/12/20
4/26/20
5/10/20
5/24/20
6/7/20
6/21/20
7/5/20
7/19/20
8/2/20
8/16/20
8/30/20
9/13/20
9/27/20
10/11/20
10/25/20
11/8/20
11/22/20
12/6/20
12/20/20
1/3/21
1/17/21
1/31/21
2/14/21
2/28/21
region.
Week Starting
Driving Transit Walking
Source: CBRE Research, Apple Mobility.
CBRENYC TRANSIT RIDERSHIP / BRIDGE & TUNNEL USAGE
35%
Weekly Ridership/Usage, 2020 vs. 2019 of riders taking the subway
compared to 2019
Most Recent Data: March 13, 2021
120%
• The MTA’s ridership recovery stalled at
Toll and Transit Usage (Compared to Same Week in 2019)
100% roughly 30-33% of 2019 levels between
August and January before trending
80%
86%
upwards again in February as vaccines were
distributed.
60%
49%
• The subway is expected to continue adding
40% riders as dining and entertainment options
35% expand as the economy reopens and the
20%
weather warms.
0%
• An infusion of federal relief funds will help
3/1/2020
3/22/2020
4/12/2020
5/3/2020
5/24/2020
6/14/2020
7/5/2020
7/26/2020
8/16/2020
9/6/2020
9/27/2020
10/18/2020
11/8/2020
11/29/2020
12/20/2020
1/10/2021
1/31/2021
2/21/2021
3/7/2021
the MTA avoid service cuts that might have
hindered the ridership recovery in 2021/22.
Week Starting
• Pre-Covid ridership levels could still be years
Buses Bridges & Tunnels Subways away as commuting patterns and tourism
Source: CBRE Research, MTA. volume remain disrupted for the
foreseeable future.
CBREMTA COMMUTER RAIL RIDERSHIP
27%
Ridership on the Long Island Railroad and Metro-North Railroad of riders taking the MTA’s
commuter railroads compared to
35%
2019
Most Recent Data: March 14, 2021
Commuter Rail Ridership (Compared to Same Week in 2019)
30%
27%• Ridership on the LIRR and MNRR
25% remains well below pre-COVID numbers
as suburban mass transit riders have
20% been slower to return to the rails than
urban residents, reflecting the ease with
15% which a greater share of suburban
commuters have been able to transition
10%
to work-from-home for their jobs.
5%
• The resumption of in-person attendance
0% at arena events and reopening
4/5/20
4/19/20
5/3/20
5/17/20
5/31/20
6/14/20
6/28/20
7/12/20
7/26/20
8/9/20
8/23/20
9/6/20
9/20/20
10/4/20
10/18/20
11/1/20
11/15/20
11/29/20
12/13/20
12/27/20
1/10/21
1/24/21
2/7/21
2/21/21
3/7/21
workplaces will likely push commuter
rail ridership higher through the
Week Starting remainder of 2021.
Commuter Rail Passengers
• Federal monetary aid to the MTA has
Source: CBRE Research, MTA. ensured that there will be no cuts to
CBRE service in the coming year.AIR TRAFFIC VOLUME IN NEW YORK CITY
24%
Passengers at Port Authority Airports Compared to 2019 of air passengers transiting
through NYC airports compared
120% 12,000,000 to November 2019
Most Recent Data: November 2020
100% 10,000,000
• Air traffic plummeted in New York
Port Authority Air Traffic Volume
from March to April with only 191,000
Monthly Passenger Count
80% 8,000,000
passengers transiting through the
region in April, a 98% decrease from
60% 6,000,000 April 2019.
40% 4,000,000 • In November, passenger counts
increased 4% MoM and passenger
volume as a percent of 2019 levels
20% 2,000,000 grew to 24% - the seventh
consecutive month of growth.
0% 0
• Data from the Transportation Security
Administration suggests that air traffic
Domestic International Passenger Count volumes have continued to grow since
Source: CBRE Research, Port Authority of New York & New Jersey. November with loosening domestic
travel restrictions likely encouraging
CBRE
more airport traffic.STATUS OF MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROGRAMS
Status of Infrastructure Projects Overseen by the MTA and the Port Authority
Project Objective Status Projected
Completion
Conversion of the Farley Post Office into a train hall for LIRR and
Moynihan Train Hall Completed
Amtrak
Construction of a new and expanded international terminal at Progressing
Newark Terminal 1 2021
Newark Liberty International Airport Slight Delay
Culver Line Signal Modernized signals will allow for greater speed and capacity on Progressing
2022
Modernization the F subway line On Schedule
Progressing
East Side Access Will bring LIRR service to Grand Central Terminal 2023 or later
Indefinite Delay
LaGuardia Airport Reconstruction and consolidation of LaGuardia Airport terminals Progressing
2026
Reconstruction and addition of an air train to Willets Point On Schedule
Progressing
JFK Airport Expansion Reconstruction and consolidation of JFK’s six passenger terminals N/A
Indefinite Delay
Stalled Pending
Penn Station Access Will bring MNRR service to Penn Station N/A
Funding
Second Avenue Subway th Stalled Pending
Extension of the Second Avenue subway line to East 125 Street N/A
Phase 2 Funding
Source: CBRE Research, MTA, Port Authority of New York & New Jersey
CBRESOURCES Pg. 18 Fall Semester at NYC Universities Sources: CBRE Research, CUNY, NYU, Columbia, SJU, Fordham, Pace, Touro College, The New School, Yeshiva University, Monroe College, Pratt Institute, Columbia Teachers College, SVA, ASA College, Manhattan College, American Council on Education CBRE
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