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Nowcasting for Africa: advances, potential and value Article Published Version Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 (CC-BY) Open Access Roberts, A. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4970-9032, Fletcher, J. K., Groves, J., Marsham, J. H., Parker, D. J., Blyth, A. M., Adefisan, E. A., Ajayi, V. O., Barrette, R., Coning, E., Dione, C., Diop, A., Foamouhoue, A. K., Gijben, M., Hill, P. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9745-2120, Lawal, K. A., Mutemi, J., Padi, M., Popoola, T. I., Rípodas, P., Stein, T. H. M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9215-5397 and Woodhams, B. J. (2021) Nowcasting for Africa: advances, potential and value. Weather. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.3936 Available at http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/98503/ It is advisable to refer to the publisher’s version if you intend to cite from the work. See Guidance on citing . Published version at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wea.3936 To link to this article DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wea.3936 Publisher: Wiley
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Nowcasting for Africa: advances, potential and value Alexander J. Roberts1,2 , 11 Numerical Weather and Climate events but poor in terms of existing forecast- Weather – Month 9999, Vol. 99, No. 99 Prediction Unit, Nigerian Meteorological ing facilities’. At the time, nowcasting in Jennifer K. Fletcher1,2, Agency (NiMet), Abuja, Nigeria some countries had been performed for James Groves2, 12 University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya almost a decade, driven in part by the increasing prevalence of rainfall radars. John H. Marsham1,2, 13 Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet), The lack of radars in the tropics prevented Accra, Ghana Douglas J. Parker1, 14 NiMet Regional Training Centre (RTC), similar nowcasting activities. However, this period also marks the beginning of satellite Alan M. Blyth2, Elijah A. Lagos, Nigeria Earth observations. This is not overlooked Adefisan3, Vincent O. 15 Agencia Estatal de Meteorología in Browning’s book and there are three (AEMET), Madrid, Spain chapters dedicated to the use of satellites Ajayi4, Ronald Barrette5, for nowcasting (Kelly et al., 1982; Shapiro Estelle de Coning6, et al., 1982; Smith et al., 1982) GCRF African SWIFT Cheikh Dione3, Satellite Earth observations have been available in the intervening 39 years. The Global Challenges Research Fund Abdoulahat Diop7, Andre (GCRF) African SWIFT (Science for Weather However, there are almost no automated K. Foamouhoue3, Morne Information and Forecasting Techniques) operational nowcasting systems used in project is a £9 million programme of work Africa today. Nowcasting performed by Gijben8, Peter G. Hill9 , led by the National Centre for Atmospheric the South African Weather Service (SAWS) Kamoru A. Lawal10,11, Science (NCAS) at the University of Leeds, being a notable exception (de Coning United Kingdom. SWIFT focuses on forecast- et al., 2015; Gijben and de Coning, 2017). Joseph Mutemi12, ing research for sub-Saharan Africa across The WMO Nowcasting Guidelines (World Michael Padi13, Temidayo temporal scales from hours to seasons, as Meteorological Organization [WMO], 2017) outline that: [in] ‘data-sparse regions, “low- I. Popoola4,14, Pilar well as capacity building for four partner countries (Figure 1; Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria cost” nowcasting systems are created by using Rípodas15, Thorwald and Kenya). SWIFT brings together scien- satellite and lightning data (blended with numerical weather prediction)’. This is not H.M. Stein9 and Beth J. tists and meteorologists from 10 African true for most of Africa where nowcasting is and five UK-based organisations with the Woodhams1 World Meteorological Organization (WMO) manual: viewing satellite imagery, calculat- 1 Institute for Climate and Atmospheric as an advisory partner (full list here https:// ing storm speeds and predicting storm posi- Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK africanswift.org/about/). Each African coun- tions, usually limited to aviation purposes. 2 National Centre for Atmospheric try has their national meteorological service The fact that nowcasting technology, data (NMS) and one university as partners. and guidelines have existed for many years Science, Leeds, UK 3 African Centre of Meteorological A major research theme of SWIFT is the improved use of satellite data, especially in Application for Development (ACMAD), the context of nowcasting. Nowcasting is Niamey, Niger the evaluation of the current weather and 4 Federal University of Technology Akure the production of short term predictions to (FUTA), Akure, Nigeria provide warnings. A more detailed definition 5 Kenya Meteorological Department of African nowcasting is provided in Box 1. (KMD), Nairobi, Kenya 6 World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), Geneva, Switzerland Nowcasting for Africa: 7 Agence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de A missed opportunity la Météorologie (ANACIM), Dakar, Senegal Almost 50 years of nowcasting 8 South African Weather Service – In the preface to the book Nowcasting Research, Pretoria, South Africa (Browning, 1982), Keith Browning laments 9 Department of Meteorology, University that ‘the relative lack of material [at the 1981 of Reading, Reading, UK nowcasting symposium] from the Tropics is 10 African Climate and Development regrettable, because nowcasting methods Initiative (ACDI), University of Cape based on remote sensing are likely to prove Figure 1. Map of African continent with GCRF Town, Cape Town, South Africa particularly helpful in areas rich in mesoscale African SWIFT partner countries marked. 1
Box 1: A definition of African nowcasting Nowcasting is the description of the current state of the atmosphere and predictions for the next few hours (WMO, 2017). More detailed definitions are hard to find, because the process varies regionally and according to the availability of data. The authors propose that African nowcasting be defined using three criteria: 1. Nowcasting includes analysis of near-real-time observations, to describe current weather conditions. Nowcasting for Africa 2. Nowcasting forward propagates observed weather features, by extrapolation but also more sophisticated methods using a wide range of data and dynamical understanding. 3. Nowcasting requires continued monitoring made possible by a rapid workflow of data acquisition, processing and the dissemination of warnings and updates. In addition, nowcasting is typically: • Applied to high impact weather, such as thunderstorms and lightning, fog and atmospheric dust. • Focussed on stakeholders who are vulnerable to those events such as aviation and fisheries. Weather – Month 9999, Vol. 99, No. 99 • Focussed on localised forecast domains, so alerts for high-impact weather on the scale of hours can be accurate. • Not strictly defined by a forward timescale as the utility of nowcasting techniques depends on the meteorological phenomenon. • Facilitated by computer systems that bring together disparate data and process them ready for human interpretation by seasoned forecasters. without nowcasting becoming widespread, In Africa, NMSs are often closely associ- Satellite Application Facility on Support to suggests one of two possibilities: (1) there is ated with or part of government depart- NoWCasting and very short range forecasts little value in African nowcasting or (2) there ments (Tall, 2010). Despite the political (NWC SAF) software, known as NWCSAF/GEO are barriers to nowcasting. The first of these capital of meteorological themes such as can produce a large number of nowcasting points is clearly untrue as heavy rainfall, food production, water resource manage- products. It extracts useful information from strong winds and lightning are abundant ment and public health, funding of NMSs different satellite channels (and NWP data) in Africa. Therefore, we must conclude that in Africa remains low (WMO, 2019). As such, and generates combined products for now- there are conditions that prevent African maintaining current systems is prioritised, casting (see Figures 2(a) and (b) for examples nowcasting. limiting funds available for investment to and Figures S4-S6, S8 and S10 (available in improve capacity. As such, training oppor- the Supporting Information) for further infor- tunities are not always abundant. This can mation). These products give greater insight Barriers for African nowcasting prevent a critical mass of knowledge being than simple visualisations and can be pro- Often, high impact weather is poorly rep- reached, leaving NMSs vulnerable to the duced rapidly in near-real-time. A number of resented by numerical weather prediction loss of a few members of staff. products can also be temporally extrapolated. (NWP) methods. Recent work has shown The divergence in global uptake of The authors are unaware of NWCSAF/GEO that global ensemble modelling systems nowcasting in the twentieth century can being run in Africa outside of the SAWS. typically show less skill than climatology in part be attributed to existing infra- While the SAWS products are for southern across West and central tropical Africa and structure (television, radio, telecoms). The Africa (up to the equator), and are shared that skill in eastern and southern Africa is ability to disseminate warnings to almost with nearby nations, there are many nations also low (Vogel et al., 2018, 2020). In par- the entire population in Europe, North within Africa whose forecasters do not have ticular, the ability to predict extremes can America and Japan lent itself to now- access to relevant nowcasting products. be especially poor (Vogel et al., 2020). Even casting in a way not matched in Africa. NWCSAF/GEO is not new; it has been freely convection permitting simulations (over Thankfully, increased connectivity (espe- available (over several iterations) for over East Africa) show low skill, with rainfall varia- cially with respect to mobile communica- 10 years. The issues preventing its use within bility dominated by time of day (Woodhams tions) means that this barrier is far smaller Africa are largely due to the lack of knowl- et al., 2018). This increases the demand than in previous decades. However, there edge of how to implement and maintain the for nowcasting as a method of providing are other technological barriers faced by software and how to access satellite data extreme weather warnings. NMSs in Africa. SWIFT partner organisa- from Preparation for the Use of Meteosat This is manifest as an aspiration to oper- tions have regular issues of intermittent in Africa (PUMA) systems. ate rainfall radars (Lamptey et al., 2009). power and disrupted internet connectivity. African NMSs have access to satellite data However, anecdotally, investment in radar While solutions such as the use of uninter- (as well as a raft of other observational and systems in Africa is often followed by a ruptible power supplies or mobile internet model data) via the EUMETCast service, a short operational period. Problems of fund- failovers can provide some mitigation they multicast system for the transmission of ing repairs or limited local expertise then have associated costs and are untenable data operated by EUMETSAT. Received data lead to equipment being non-operational solutions for long-term operational use. are generally managed within PUMA sys- for long periods or indefinitely. Once again, tems (Maathuis, 2017) and are visualised via the exception is the South African radar net- African nowcasting data (and its Synergie software (Le Gallou, 2017). While work. However, the maintenance difficulties the software allows users to navigate and faced by the SAWS are well documented accessibility) visualise a wide variety of data it is clear (Saltikoff, 2015; du Preez, 2017). Thus, Keith The use of satellite data for nowcasting has from communication with forecasters that Browning’s prediction that remote sensing been recognised as providing an opportu- there are a number of limitations. (satellite data) would be useful for tropical nity, not so complex or expensive to preclude Anecdotal evidence from forecasters in 2 nowcasting holds true even today. African NMSs (WMO, 2012). The EUMETSAT SWIFT partner NMSs and the authors’ first-
storm has been shown to be a poor pre- dictor of its future behaviour (Tsonis and Austin, 1981; Radhakrishna et al., 2012). As such, one method to enhance predictabil- ity is to consider the effects of known geo- graphic or atmospheric features. Examples include mountain ranges that enhance pre- Nowcasting for Africa cipitation; sea, land and lake breezes pro- ducing convergence; or dry lines which are associated with storm triggering (Figure 3). Short, convection-permitting simulations are now feasible data sources for nowcast- ing systems (Bowler et al., 2006). NWP simu- lations initialised frequently and using data assimilation techniques are able to provide Weather – Month 9999, Vol. 99, No. 99 improvements over purely deterministic forecasts (Sun et al., 2014). Similarly, ensem- ble systems if initialised at short intervals have the potential to provide useful infor- mation. The interpretation of such simula- tions is inevitably probabilistic, as such this approach lends itself to the production of probabilistic risk nowcasts. Given the unpre- dictability of convective storms, this type of nowcast is appropriate for Africa but might prove a challenge to communicate to the public who often expect yes/no answers to Figure 2. Examples of products available for nowcasting exercises during the SWIFT testbed 1b. All questions like ‘will it rain?’. panels show 1800 utc 2 May 2019. (a) is the NWCSAF/GEO rapidly developing thunderstorm (RDT) To predict storm triggering, fuzzy logic product, (b) is the NWCSAF/GEO convective rainfall rate (CRR) product and (c) is the Met Office systems can be used (Mueller et al., 2003; provided Meteosat imagery where brightness temperature is shown with cold cloud-top tempera- James et al., 2018). These represent the tures indicated by a colour scale. inherent uncertainty of the input data and through the application of rules (informed hand experiences indicate that once within readily viewable using Synergie and so, for by statistical analyses, expert knowledge the PUMA system, access to data is diffi- the SWIFT partner NMSs at least, these files and dynamical understanding) give proba- cult. Users of the system are often unsure continue to go unused and are automati- bilistic predictions of storm initiation. as to what data they have access to and cally deleted by the system. In contrast to these techniques (which are can be unaware of the management of the driven by a dynamical understanding), there EUMETCast system. Some products cannot be is now much research being focussed on visualised via Synergie and so go unnoticed Current nowcasting methods machine learning (Shi et al., 2017; Agrawal and are automatically deleted without being A feature common to modern operational et al., 2019; Lebedev et al., 2019; Tran and used. The problem is compounded by the nowcasting systems (including NWCSAF/ Song, 2019), in particular convolutional neu- automated management of incoming files, GEO) is the automated forward propagation ral networks (CNNs). This field holds great including changing file names so they are dif- of existing storms through the application of promise for short-term prediction but gives ferent from the ‘typical file names’ provided storm motion or optical flow vectors (Dixon limited opportunity to develop understand- by EUMETCast and directory names that defy and Wiener, 1993; Hand, 1996; Mueller ing of physical processes. To the authors’ simple common-sense navigation. Ingesting et al., 2003; Sills et al., 2003; Bowler et al., 2004, local data (e.g. local surface observations) to 2006; Brovelli et al., 2005; James et al., 2018). display alongside received data is also com- While extrapolation of this type can work plicated and so is generally not attempted, very well, it has limitations. It is well suited hampering analysis and verification of satel- to analysing frontal systems where features lite or model data. Within Synergie configu- all move in the same direction and at the rations may be locked for forecasters and same speed or if convective storms do not settings for complex visualisations cannot be change significantly in size or intensity over saved to be used repeatedly. This means that the extrapolation period. However, convec- generating the most useful visualisations can tive storms can vary significantly in their size be time consuming for forecast staff. and intensity over short periods of time. Also, In the summer of 2019, 10 years after the extrapolation approach does not predict NWCSAF/GEO was first released (and fol- the triggering of new storms and as such has lowing the release of a wide range of a clear predictive limitation, especially in the near-real-time products by the SWIFT pro- tropics. That said, once storms transition into Figure 3. A SAWS brightness temperature ject) two products (Rapidly Developing organised systems, forward propagation is difference image (IR12.0–IR10.8) over South Thunderstorms (RDT) and Convective likely to be a useful technique. Africa on 28 November 2013. A dry line is Rainfall Rate (CRR)) were made available on To better represent the development of indicated on the image. This feature was the EUMETCast African service. While this is deep convective storms, some nowcasting associated with the initiation of a very large a positive step, it has not been particularly systems also represent growth and decay. convective system later the same day. (© 2019 useful. As with other products, they are not However, the past state of a convective EUMETSAT.) 3
knowledge, no operational nowcasting sys- tems yet use CNN techniques. However, it seems likely that in the future CNNs will be a powerful tool for nowcasting. The role of human interpretation is also important to consider. Local forecasters that know the system they are using are able to Nowcasting for Africa adjust forward projections and account for spurious features prior to warnings being issued. Despite technological advances, the role of the human nowcaster remains an important step in the production of now- cast warnings. Weather – Month 9999, Vol. 99, No. 99 SWIFT progress in the provi- sion of nowcasting products Testbeds SWIFT has a programme of weather fore- casting ‘testbeds’, bringing researchers and forecasters together in real-time forecasting settings (to the authors knowledge the first of their kind in Africa). Testbeds have been suc- Figure 4. Photos from the GCRF African SWIFT Testbed 1b hosted at the IMTR at the KMD, Nairobi, cessful in the USA in accelerating the opera- Kenya. tional use of new tools (Ralph et al., 2013). The SWIFT testbeds are helping to engender a sense of shared purpose across meteorologi- cal institutions from both Africa and the UK. SWIFT Testbed 1b was hosted in April/ May 2019 at the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), Nairobi (Figure 4) and in partnership with the WMO-led High Impact Weather Lake System project (HIGHWAY). Testbed 1b produced opera- tional forecasts for East and West Africa and evaluated the use of data and tech- niques (Fletcher et al., 2020). The partici- pants represent a wealth of expertise in the fields of East and West African mete- orology. Researchers learnt about the techniques employed by forecasters and how meteorological fields are interpreted in specialised ways and forecasters were exposed to research ideas, products and techniques they had not previously used. This exchange of ideas was only possible due to the hard work of the participants and their willingness to share knowledge and learn from others. Nowcasting was one of the three main strands of Testbed 1b along with synoptic forecasting and fore- cast evaluation. These fed into one another: forecasts informed nowcasts and nowcast- ing products enabled the evaluation of earlier forecasts. The testbeds are a showcase for nowcast- ing products. A major achievement was the provision of NWCSAF/GEO products by NCAS Figure 5. (a) The installation and position of the 2.4m C band satellite antenna located at the and the University of Leeds (Figures 2(a) and Chilbolton observatory. (b) A schematic indicating the location of the hardware and processing (b) RDT and CRR respectively) and Meteosat required to produce NWCSAF/GEO products and make images available for African forecasters and derived imagery (Figure 2(c)) and ATDNet researchers. Sferics (lightning) by the UK Met Office. All these products were generated in the UK Data is processed using NWCSAF/GEO and are being produced with a typical latency and made available online for the testbed. the resultant images are then catalogued of 30min (the first time this has ever been A 2.4m satellite antenna has been installed and made publicly available online (sci.ncas. done for East and West Africa). The use of 4 at the Chilbolton Observatory, UK (Figure 5). ac.uk/swift). At the time of writing, images this system was, in part, to highlight what
is possible for African NMSs to achieve with roducts can be used as a resource to con- p a change in operating methods. SWIFT is respect to operational nowcasting as much duct research. working with partner NMSs to help in the of the equipment required is extant within use of the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) NMSs and the rest is readily available and to disseminate warnings through a wide relatively low cost. Nowcasting potential in Africa range of media. In addition to this, a SWIFT NWCSAF/GEO products provided by There is great potential for increasing now- extension project is working on an appli- SWIFT have since been used operationally casting capacity across Africa. The provision cation programming interface (API) for use Nowcasting for Africa and during a joint SAtellite and Weather of nowcasting products through SWIFT has with mobile applications for the delivery of Information for Disaster Resilience in Africa allowed nowcasting to be possible opera- nowcasting warnings (Forecasting African (SAWIDRA) and the African Centre of tionally across East and West Africa. However, STorms Application (FASTA)), for which Meteorological Application for Development there is considerable work needed for African African partner institutions will provide local (ACMAD) forecast demonstration exercise. NMSs to make nowcasting routine. meteorological expertise and warnings. Feedback is currently being gathered with the aim of improving visualisation methods Training Planning for the future and providing development feedback to Weather – Month 9999, Vol. 99, No. 99 NWC SAF. A major element of making this a reality is The Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) satel- training of future forecasters. Educational lites represent a major technological step centres such as partner universities, ACMAD, forward and could greatly enhance oppor- Building capacity to implement tunities for nowcasting in Africa (Stuhlmann the NiMet (Nigerian Meteorological Agency) nowcasting in Africa Regional Training Centre (RTC), the KMD et al., 2005). Specifically, the new lightning The experience gained setting up the now- Institute for Meteorological Training and imager will provide information on electri- casting system described above means that Research (IMTR), Ecole Africaine de la cally active storms across the whole con- NCAS can provide advice and training to Météorologie et de l’Aviation Civile (EAMAC) tinent. However, the sheer scale of data build capacity for operational nowcasting and workshops run as part of the Severe generated by the MTG satellites means that in Africa. In August 2019, training was deliv- Weather Forecasting Programme in regional it is likely that the EUMETCast Africa ser- ered to staff from the SWIFT partner institu- specialised meteorological centres will not vice (the primary source of forecast/nowcast tions on how to set up receiving hardware only educate forecasters in partner coun- data for many African NMSs) will only con- and run NWCSAF/GEO, this covered data tries but more broadly across Africa. This tain a subset of the data produced. SWIFT preprocessing, software use, visualisation ensures a legacy of nowcasting skills that is working alongside NWC SAF, the SAWS and automation. The supporting material will outlast the SWIFT funding period. and the WMO to highlight the effects of for this course was provided as a website downgrading the Africa service and miti- (https://sites.google.com/ncas.ac.uk/swift- gate the effect of subsetting satellite data to safnwctraining). Further training scheduled Development protect nowcasting capability. It is currently for June 2020 has been postponed due to SWIFT development of additional nowcast- still uncertain whether the introduction of the Covid-19 global pandemic. Meanwhile ing tools is ongoing; for example, investi- MTG will be beneficial to African users. technical support for groups managing local gating methods for extending extrapolation hardware and software is being provided. lead-times for convective systems. It is sus- Value of satellite and Alongside support and training there is an pected that large, well-developed systems ongoing discussion about getting NWCSAF/ that are able to persist for many hours (and nowcasting research for Africa GEO run operationally within African NMSs. have the highest impact) are likely to be The value of making automated nowcast- Additionally, four satellite antennas have predictable for several hours. ing products available to African NMSs is been purchased for partner universities. The While local generation of nowcasting undoubtedly great. The manual approach Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and products in Africa is a target, there is a used for aviation safety is labour intensive Technology (KNUST), Ghana have received need to take an holistic approach to now- and so is difficult to expand to national and set up their receiving station. SWIFT casting. Without a means of interrogating scales. However, augmenting it with the aims to facilitate African partners in com- incoming data and enabling input from a techniques discussed earlier and introducing missioning and maintaining such systems. forecaster, there is no way to easily gener- automation will allow forecasters to produce African ownership of these responsibilities ate meaningful warnings. Similarly, without warnings quickly for much wider regions. will prevent reliance on UK generated prod- a mechanism to rapidly distribute warnings Many industries would benefit from ucts beyond the lifetime of SWIFT (ending the process of data collection, process- greater access to warnings of imminent December 2021). ing, analysis and warning production is a high impact weather that are currently not Communication between the University waste of resources. Therefore, SWIFT is also widely available from African NMSs. For of Leeds/NCAS and NWC SAF is ongoing involved in solutions to these issues. example: the energy sector (wind, oil and and there is mutual interest in collabora- NCAS are already working alongside gas), commercial/state logistics and haulage, tion on the development/evaluation of the UK Met Office in the development ports, fisheries, military and agriculture to NWCSAF/GEO and the delivery of train- of FOREST (Forecast Observations and name a few. NMSs could provide commercial ing in Africa. SWIFT NWCSAF/GEO evalua- Research Evaluation and Survey Toolkit). nowcasting services; as such, this represents tion work conducted at the University of FOREST is a new visualisation tool devel- potential new sources of funds. Reading (Hill et al., 2020) helps us under- oped by the UK Met Office as part of the By improving their ability to produce and stand how NWCSAF/GEO products should Weather and Climate Science for Service disseminate warnings there is the poten- be used over Africa. The role of ACMAD Partnership (WCSSP). The use of such a tool tial to raise the public profile and trust in within SWIFT will help to generate inter- in Africa would be beneficial as it broad- African NMSs. Skilled human interpreta- est in using NWCSAF/GEO products and ens access to model products and enables tion of nowcasting fields is highly valuable provide a pathway for future training in visualisation of near-real-time nowcasting for even the most advanced nowcasting Africa. Nowcasting products have been products produced locally. systems, as such, experienced forecasters generated for SWIFT research case studies, Dissemination on timescales useful for play an important role in successful opera- these will be useful to understand how such nowcasting is a great challenge and requires tional nowcasting. The wealth of forecasting 5
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