NORDIC FOREIGN AND SECURITY POLICY 2020 - Climate Change, Hybrid & Cyber Threats and Challenges to the Multilateral, Rules-Based World Order
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Proposals / Nordic Foreign and Security Policy 2020
NORDIC FOREIGN
AND SECURITY POLICY
2020
Climate Change, Hybrid & Cyber Threats and Challenges
to the Multilateral, Rules-Based World Order
Proposals, July 2020
Björn Bjarnason
1
Nordic Foreign and Security Policy 2020 / Proposals
INTRODUCTION
On 2 December 2019, the Icelandic Minister for US outlook on the Nordic foreign and security
Foreign Affairs, on behalf of the Nordic Foreign situation. We met with Nordic politicians,
Ministers, tasked me to write a report on Nordic diplomats, experts, and academics in the fields
Foreign and Security Policy in the same spirit of international relations, politics, climate
as the one Thorvald Stoltenberg delivered in change as well as both civil and military security.
February 2009. My work took into account the In short, in all our discussions, in over 80
establishment of Nordic Defence Cooperation meetings, we sensed great and sincere interest
(NORDEFCO) in November 2009. in strengthening Nordic cooperation in the field
of foreign and security policy.
The mandate stipulated three tasks:
• addressing global climate change It was of special value to visit research institutes
• addressing hybrid threats and cyber issues in the Nordic capitals. These included the
• strengthening and reforming multilateralism Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
and the rules-based international order. (NUPI) and the Peace Research Institute in
Oslo (PRIO), the Swedish Defence Research
An Addendum to the report includes the Agency (FOI), the Stockholm International
following short sections: The Nordic Context, Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and the
Cooperative Networks, and The Geopolitical Swedish Institute of International Affairs
Context. Moreover, putting the report into (UI) in Stockholm, the Finnish Institute of
context with the COVID-19 pandemic was International Affairs (FIIA) and Hybrid Centre of
unavoidable as it is bound to affect Nordic Excellence in Helsinki, and representatives of
and international cooperation in the near and the Danish Institute for International Studies
distant future. (DIIS) and Centre for Resolution of International
Conflicts (CRIC) in Copenhagen. In Copenhagen,
I was instructed to avoid duplication concerning we also met with representatives from the
ongoing Nordic cooperation and asked to relate Danish Foreign Policy Society, the United
existing cooperation to the new proposals. Nations Association, and the UNDP’s Nordic
Moreover, the new proposals should concentrate Representation. While all these actors have
on the added value of joint Nordic cooperation their viewpoint, together they form a network
in the respective subject areas. The report that should be cultivated to facilitate a common
should be brief and concise, structured around analytical basis for Nordic foreign and security
a limited set of themes and with concrete policy policy and its promotion within the Nordic
recommendations for possible joint action. countries and to the broader world.
While gathering materials for the report, Jóna To assist and advise us, the respective ministries
Sólveig Elínardóttir, director of the International appointed a reference group composed of Jørgen
Security and Defence Cooperation Department Gammelgaard and Louise Riis Andersen from
at the Icelandic Ministry for Foreign Affairs, and Denmark, Matti Pesu and Pilvi-Sisko Vierros-
I were well received in all the Nordic capitals Villeneuve from Finland, Diljá Mist Einarsdóttir
as well as Washington DC where we got the and Ólafur Stephensen from Iceland, Karsten
2
Proposals / Nordic Foreign and Security Policy 2020
Friis and Torunn L. Tryggestad from Norway, If this report enhances Nordic foreign and
and Annika Markovic and Laila Naraghi from security policy cooperation, it will be a step
Sweden. I am most grateful for all the assistance towards a brighter future.
and advice we got. The outcome is my sole
responsibility.
Since the Stoltenberg Report, the depth and Reykjavík, 1 July 2020
scope of Nordic foreign policy cooperation have
continued to broaden. The Nordic countries
have made great progress in the field of security
and defence, both as a group (NORDEFCO)
and bilaterally, responding to the changes in
the security environment in our region. Even
though their participation in international
Björn Bjarnason
bodies varies, the Nordics continue to seek
ever closer cooperation on these matters.
Three are members of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO); three are European Union
(EU) member states, and all are members of
the Arctic Council. States outside the region,
however, often look to the Nordics as one
international entity.
At our very first meeting in Oslo, people voiced
that there was growing international demand
and need for Nordic liberal democratic values
and soft solutions. Nordic cooperation is
an interesting model in Europe and for the
rest of the world, and it is clear that there is
considerable untapped potential to take the
cooperation to a new level in the three areas
that the mandate covers.
Encouragement for the Nordics to build on and
expand the Nordic Brand, therefore, underpins
the entire report. This process includes taking
the lead in and developing comprehensive
cooperative measures that can serve as a model
for international responses to the growing
challenges of our time, including climate change,
hybrid and cyber threats, and the crisis of
multilateralism.
3
Nordic Foreign and Security Policy 2020 / Proposals Björn Bjarnason (b. 1944) is a lawyer from the University of Iceland. He was Deputy Secretary General of the Prime Minister´s Office 1975-1979. Journalist at Morgunblaðið 1979-1984 and assistant editor 1984-1991. MP for Reykjavik for the Independence Party (center-right) 1991-2009. Minister of Education, Science and Culture 1995 -2002. Minister of Justice and Ecclesiastical Affairs 2003 -2009. Member of Reykjavik City Council 2002-2006. Photos Shutterstock.com 4
Proposals / Nordic Foreign and Security Policy 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................2
TABLE OF CONTENTS.........................................................................5
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE...............................................................6
1. Cooperation on climate through an
enhanced common policy..............................................................8
2. Climate Security and Development...........................................9
3. Public-private cluster for targeted
energy transition projects..............................................................10
4. Common approach to Chinese Arctic Involvement............12
5. Climate change mitigation and marine research...............13
HYBRID THREATS AND CYBER ISSUES..........................................14
6. Common understanding of Hybrid Threats...........................16
7. Pandemia preparedness..................................................................17
8. Democratic and rules-based cyberspace................................18
9. Initiative on new technologies and
defence against cyber threats......................................................19
MULTILATERALISM AND THE RULES-BASED WORLD ORDER...20
10. Reform and modernisation of
multilateral organisations..............................................................22
11. Common Nordic Diplomacy...........................................................23
12. Enhanced role of Diplomatic Missions.....................................24
13. Strengthening foreign and security
policy research and analysis.........................................................25
14. Digital promotion of the Nordic Brand
and core values....................................................................................26
ADDENDUM..........................................................................................27
The Nordic Context.............................................................................27
Cooperative Networks.......................................................................28
The Geopolitical Context.................................................................29
The GIUK-gap...........................................................................29
Great Power Politics moving into the Arctic....................30
Recent developments............................................................31
5Nordic Foreign and Security Policy 2020 / Proposals
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change is one of the greatest Green Energy
challenges of the 21st century and a In 2019, Nordic leaders agreed to make the
Nordic Region the most sustainable and
global concern. It will affect stability, integrated region in the world by 2030. In doing
prosperity, and security in every part so, they decided to deliver collectively on
of the world and influence migration their respective commitments under the Paris
and refugee patterns both regionally Agreement on climate change as well as under
the climate parts of the EU’s climate and energy
and globally. It is a challenge that only framework.
global collaborative action can effectively
address and is therefore already a central This vision should be extended to a shared focus
foreign and security policy priority on making the COVID-19 recovery responses
green and ensuring that the economic recovery
for the Nordic countries. Many of the does not worsen the climate crisis. The Nordic
traditional foreign policy tools, including countries therefore need to work together
development cooperation and trade, can to build back better and greener. COVID-19’s
be further employed to successfully assist dramatic shock to the global energy system
was not in the cards during the rapporteur’s
and encourage other countries and actors visits to the Nordic capitals. The question at
to increase their actions in mitigating and the time was whether there was support for a
adapting to climate change. Increased Nordic, collaborative effort to increase the role
Nordic engagements in this field can of renewables and improve energy efficiency in
other regions.
potentially raise global climate ambitions,
accelerate the global green transition, The Nordics have developed unique cooperation
and ensure increased funding and focus on energy. This cooperation is a solid foundation
on climate change actions and Paris for sustainable and secure energy supply in
the region. All the capitals express interest in
Alignment. Three issues stand out as leading the way in the global green transition.
particularly relevant for future Nordic To make it a common foreign policy goal is a
collaboration: green energy, the Arctic, worthwhile challenge. This brings added-value
and migration. not only to the Nordic region but also to Nordic
foreign policy initiatives and should be seen
both as a part of development programs and an
international research and business opportunity.
The Arctic
The Nordics are five out of the eight members
of the Arctic Council and have a crucial role to
play in this part of the world, where security
dynamics are worsening due to rising rivalry
between the great powers. As small Arctic
6Global Climate Change
states, the Nordics share a strong interest in fires that raged in Sweden and Norway in the
maintaining the Arctic as a zone of cooperation summer of 2018 showed. Today, the Nordics
and joint problem solving. work mostly independently on preventing
serious fires. The Nordic Council has suggested
All six working groups of the Arctic Council that the Nordic countries may benefit greatly
deal with the effects of climate change, from increased collaboration on fire prevention
albeit in different ways. The Nordic countries and has called for Nordic governments to
see the Arctic Council as the primary focus evaluate the possibilities for a Nordic fleet of
for Arctic cooperation and will continue to firefighting aircraft as well as a Nordic strategy
address important issues like climate change for fire prevention. This should be taken into
and sustainable development in this forum. consideration, while also taking note of the
International Arctic conferences held in the work already being done within the European
High North (e.g. Arctic Circle in Reykjavik, Arctic Civil Protection Mechanism and the NATO Euro-
Frontiers in Tromsø and Rovaniemi Arctic Spirit) Atlantic Disaster Response Coordination Centre
have become an important forum for climate (EADRCC), of which all Nordics are members.
change discussions. These initiatives are
useful to map out international opportunities Migration
and are used to coordinate common Nordic While it is well-established that climate
efforts in order to engage experts and private change makes many places unliveable and
stakeholders in key discussions on climate forces people to leave their homes, it will not
change. necessarily lead to more migration to Europe.
Most people are displaced within their own
In discussions on climate change, the Arctic is country or seek refuge in neighbouring states.
always high on the agenda, as is the need to The Nordics should see it as their role to
closely follow the impact of diminishing sea minimise the negative impacts of climate change
ice. Rising temperatures have resulted in new on livelihoods, prosperity, and equality within
sea routes opening up and opportunities for the communities most affected by climate
resource exploitation. Further risks include new change. In this context the longstanding special
undersea fibre optic cables, increased climate- Nordic foreign policy and development ties with
related natural disasters in the Nordics, such as some African nations are important.
wildfires and risks to biodiversity, all of which
can be more effectively addressed through In both the Global North and the Global South,
Nordic collective coordination and action. It the issue of climate change must be dealt with
is obvious that all this activity demands more as a serious comprehensive foreign and security
security awareness, and the Nordic countries will policy challenge.
need to continue and even increase their efforts
to secure the Arctic as a low-tension area.
According to climate researchers, warmer
climate increases the risks of both floods and
more extreme droughts. The latter, in turn,
increases the risk of forest fires, as the forest
7PROPOSALS
1. Cooperation on climate through an enhanced common policy
A common Nordic policy approach to climate change should be developed in order
to strengthen Nordic climate action globally. It should take into account climate
diplomacy, in a broad sense, as well as the linkage between foreign, security, and
development policy and financing.
Stronger Nordic cooperation on climate on the MDBs’ own commitment to align their
diplomacy would be useful when addressing operations with the Paris Agreement – a
the issue of climate change in the global arena commitment the MDBs are currently working
and in bilateral conversations with strategically jointly on. The commitments should reflect how
important countries, including large emitters. the Multilateral Development Banks engage
The Nordic countries should collaborate more with individual countries, e.g., when assisting
on raising the issue of climate change and green client countries to develop more ambitious
transition in bilateral conversations with third Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
countries of strategic importance in relation Currently, there is no definite consensus among
to the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable shareholders on the Multilateral Development
Development Goals (SDGs), in particular SDG7 Banks’ optimal approach to these issues. A
on ensuring access to affordable, reliable, coordinated Nordic push could influence this
sustainable and modern energy for all. development, in particular given the track record
of the Nordic countries.
Public funding will be insufficient in financing
the global green transition. To further increase The Nordics have frequently been recognized
the ambition and scale of climate action, the for influencing the direction of institutions like
Nordics should lead by example in accelerating the World Bank, where they share a seat with
private funding for green transition worldwide the Baltics, to a degree that goes beyond their
by jointly engaging their pension funds and actual share of votes. This has been done by
institutional investors in providing critical moving topics from the periphery to the centre
support to the transition to low-emission, stage.
climate-resilient economies in other world
regions. This would build on the successful To unleash the potential for Nordic cooperation
experiences of Nordic pension funds, which in this important area, the proposal is to
already lead the way with ambitious, climate- establish an enhanced common Nordic policy
related investment goals, extensive disclosure approach to climate, bringing the above work
on their portfolio’s climate alignment, and strands together in a coherent Nordic approach.
proven investment models. Sweden has for
instance supported climate-smart investments
in developing countries, and Denmark has
promoted public-private co-investment funds,
i.a., for increased investments in sustainable
development, including in developing countries.
Within the field of development, an ambitious
Nordic framework on the greening of the
Multilateral Development Banks’ (MDB)
engagements could be used to push for action
8Global Climate Change
2. Climate Security and Development
A common Nordic Climate Security and Development Policy should be developed.
Efforts should be combined by pooling resources and focusing development aid and
conflict resolution measures on vulnerable and unstable states affected by climate
change.
Climate change is exacerbating existing climate resilience in developing countries
challenges of conflict and instability in the where the security risk potential, due to climate
area of security. While the nexus of climate, change, is greatest. In doing so, the Nordic
conflict, and security is gaining increased countries contribute meaningfully to limiting
political attention, there is still need to advance the risks of climate-related violent outbreaks,
understanding of this trend and build support food crises and large-scale displacement of
for strengthening the UN’s capacities in the populations.
sphere of climate and security. The Nordic
countries are all engaged in the climate-security Their common approach should focus on
field, but a joint understanding and approach building state capacity to address climate-
would increase the Nordic countries’ influence related risks, such as floods and droughts, thus
on current policy debates, e.g., within the UN increasing state legitimacy and reducing risks
Security Council. of social upheaval. This would improve social
resilience and increase economic security.
Responding to climate change-related security
threats and their impact on the Nordic region Priority should be given to conflict prevention
requires coordinated action beyond the region. and conflict resolution measures leading
The Nordics should lead the way in developing to necessary institutional reforms in states
a truly cross-sectoral policy approach to with high climate exposure, high fragility, and
addressing the multifaceted problems and instability.
security challenges caused by global climate
change. Promotion of public-private partnerships
supporting development of alternative
Their strong and positive reputation for livelihoods in these countries should have
addressing climate change, contributing priority, focusing on innovation and necessary
development aid, engaging in conflict prevention infrastructure projects, such as ensuring access
and mediation, and promoting democratic to clean water and energy security.
institutions and human rights, supports Nordic
leadership in this field. Moreover, the Nordics should lead the way in
developing adequate international agreements
Building resilience in vulnerable and unstable to tackle the problems the world will inevitably
countries is necessary to protect those most face due to climate change. Examples include
exposed against the negative effects of climate international rules governing those forced to
change. The most fragile countries usually abandon their homes due to climate change and
depend heavily on agriculture, have a recent the already stretched international humanitarian
history of conflict, and a high level of political and crisis response systems.
exclusion.
The empowerment of women and girls is key for
Nordic foreign policy aims within relevant successful implementation of these proposals.
international organizations should support
9Nordic Foreign and Security Policy 2020 / Proposals
3. Public-private cluster for targeted energy transition projects
A Nordic public-private energy cluster should identify suitable partner regions
internationally, with a high fossil fuel component, to work towards necessary energy
transition and sustainable development. The work would rely on a sustainability
protocol similar to what has been worked out for hydropower and geothermal projects
internationally.
All the Nordic countries have expressed Nordics have established advanced heating and
ambitious goals for energy transition and CO2 cooling networks providing optimum energy
sequestration in order to become carbon neutral quality management. This strong position of
in 2050. Given that the Nordics maintain stable, the Nordics as frontrunners in the field of clean
political consensus on the issue, they will have energy solutions is further supported by a strong
the technology and economic strength to live Research and Development sector. It, combined
up to these goals in the long term. The Nordic with a strong industrial sector, would embrace
countries’ climate ambitions are important to challenges from the wider world. This would
show leadership and demonstrate best practices pave the way for even stronger public-private
on how the goals of the Paris Agreement can partnerships.
be reached. Further, it is important to showcase
and enable the proper instruments to delink New ground-breaking Nordic technologies, such
economic growth and increased energy as heat pump applications, new generations
consumption to ensure that large parts of of network solutions for distribution, carbon
the rest of the world will be able to reach the capture and storage technologies, such as the
same targets while simultaneously increasing CarbFix method, and clean energy solutions
sustainable welfare and maintaining political for communication and transport on land and
stability. In fact, in many regions one or more sea, are examples of opportunities to make the
coal power plants are providing electricity most of the Nordic Brand in generating export
that is the primus motor in new industries and revenues, while at the same time contributing to
economic growth. solving the challenges of climate change.
The Nordic countries together possess a The proposal here is to form a Nordic public-
large set of technologies and experience that private cluster of institutes and companies,
other regions can use as multiple-component backed by the Nordic governments and Nordic
solutions to engineer transitions from fossil and international funding and financing
energy to clean energy, while at the same time organisations. This cluster would seek
addressing sustainability and social issues, like suitable partner regions internationally, with
employment, by gradually shifting employment a high fossil fuel component, to work towards
from brown to green jobs. necessary energy transition and sustainable
development. This cluster would build on the
Nordic leading-edge technologies in the fields Nordic countries’ strength of close cross-sector
of hydropower and geothermal energy, wind, collaboration. Especially in this area, there is
solar, nuclear, biofuels and energy efficiency untapped potential in advancing models of
allow for the introduction of Nordic integrated public-private collaboration globally. Examples,
energy solutions, which take care of both such as the Swedish Leadership for Sustainable
the generation of renewable energy and the Development, Swedish Investors for Sustainable
interconnection of regions. Moreover, the Development as well as the climate partnerships
10Global Climate Change
Wind generators in the arctic tundra. Norway, the island of Smola.
between the Danish Government and the private projects internationally. The Nordic institutes
sector, could be raised on a global level to on research and innovation should be involved
inspire and spur action. in the initial phase of the project. It would be
relevant to clarifying possible synergies with
The choice of region(s) would depend on ongoing work in the Nordic Council of Ministers.
the probability of success and where Nordic
expertise and technologies would be especially
competitive. The work would rely on a
sustainability protocol similar to what has been
worked out for hydropower and geothermal
11Nordic Foreign and Security Policy 2020 / Proposals
4. Common approach to Chinese Arctic Involvement
The Nordic countries should develop a common Nordic analysis, policy, and approach
to Chinese Arctic involvement and pursue it within relevant regional networks to which
they are all parties.
Climate change, coupled with growing tensions included the Arctic sea routes in its 2017 grand
in international relations over the last decade, development strategy, the Belt & Road Initiative
has led to big power rivalry in the Arctic between (BRI). China re-emphasised this in its 2018 white
the United States, Russia, and China. The Nordics paper on “China’s Arctic Policy”, outlining its
comprise five out of the eight Arctic states interests as a major stakeholder in the Arctic.
and therefore have a strong common voice, In 2018, China and Iceland jointly inaugurated
e.g., within the Arctic Council. A 2019 update the Arctic Science Observatory in northern
assessment issued by the Arctic Council’s Iceland, originally intended for observations
Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme of the northern lights. Later its research scope
working group highlights that (1), the region expanded. Plans have been presented for
continues to warm at a rate more than twice opening a Chinese research station in Greenland
that of the global mean; (2) the annual surface as well as a satellite receiver station.
air temperatures over the last five years have
exceeded those of any year since 1900, and All Arctic states agree that the UN Law of the Sea
(3) the volume of Arctic sea ice in the month (UNCLOS) is the legal framework within which
of September has declined 75% since 1979. states should solve legal disputes regarding
The implications of this trend are global and ocean governance. In the South China Sea,
political. China makes maritime claims which contradict
UNCLOS, although ratified by China. Such actions
Amidst these drastic changes to the Arctic must be kept out of the Arctic.
climate and environment, China is emerging
as a global power and has defined itself as a Several actors’ broad interest in the Arctic
“near-Arctic state”. The overall Chinese strategic underlines the importance of well-functioning,
interests are access to Arctic resources and multilateral cooperation, where the Arctic states
sea routes as well as increased influence on must assume responsibility and play a key
Arctic issues. China is increasing its bilateral role in the interests of the Arctic environment
cooperation with the Arctic states through active and its societies. The Nordics should aim to
economic, social, and scientific engagement in formulate a common Nordic policy facilitating
the region, including polar research. partnership with states that share similar views
on the implications of increased Chinese Arctic
China’s presence and strategic interest in the involvement.
Arctic will have security policy implications. So
far, Chinese military activity in the Arctic has It is therefore proposed that the Nordic
been very limited. However, the Chinese military countries develop a common Nordic analysis,
has now begun to strengthen its knowledge of policy and approach to Chinese Arctic
the Arctic. involvement and pursue it within relevant
regional networks to which they are all parties,
Since 1999, the Chinese have conducted i.e., within the Arctic Council, Council of Europe,
numerous Arctic expeditions. They built their Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS), Barents
first research base, the Yellow River Station, Euro-Arctic Cooperation (BEAC) and Northern
on Svalbard Island in 2004. China has officially Dimension.
12Global Climate Change
5. Climate change mitigation and marine research
Climate change seriously impacts the oceans. Pooling marine research resources,
both human resources, research vessels and other equipment, enables the Nordics
to develop state-of-the-art knowledge on the impact of climate change on their
surrounding oceans.
The oceans, which cover around 70% of the To better understand the climate-induced
Earth’s surface, contain over 97% of all water on changes in the temperature and chemistry of our
Earth and produce half of all our oxygen. They oceans and their consequences, it is proposed
also act as our planet’s chief climate regulator. that the Nordic countries pool their marine
In fact, more than 90% of the warming on the research resources, both human resources,
Earth over the past 50 years has occurred in the research vessels and other equipment. This
ocean. All Nordic countries have acknowledged will enable the production of state-of-the-art
and flagged internationally the importance of knowledge on the impact of climate change on
the oceans for both human and planetary well- the oceans surrounding the Nordics. In addition
being and have emphasised the importance to increasing awareness of what could be done
of restoring and protecting the well-being of to respond to the effects of climate change on
the marine environment. Moreover, all have the oceans, as well as how to address challenges
underscored the serious impacts of climate and utilise possible opportunities, this would
change on the world’s oceans and, conversely, enable the Nordics to better protect their
its importance to their health in the battle common interests and advance their common
against the negative impact of climate change. policies within international organizations.
It is also proposed that the results of this
The Nordics, which are all Arctic states, all collaboration be made available on open source
witness the dramatic effects of global climate platforms to advance international knowledge
change on the oceans in the region. Rising on the matter. Moreover, it is proposed that the
ocean temperatures and increased acidification Nordic countries seek collaboration in this field
directly affect developments in the Arctic where with private actors as well as small-island states
sea ice is melting, and marine ecosystems are that are showing growing leadership in response
changing, which in turn has effects in the North to the marine impact on climate change.
Atlantic and beyond. These developments also
have widespread social and economic effects
in the Arctic relating to, e.g., the opening up
of new sea routes, increased access to natural
resources, increased tourism, and changes in
marine biodiversity. Climate change is also
having extensive effects on conditions in the
Baltic Sea, as well as on its habitants. While
some species might benefit from climate change,
most of its effects are predicted to be negative.
13Nordic Foreign and Security Policy 2020 / Proposals
HYBRID THREATS AND CYBER ISSUES
Hybrid threats, including cyber-attacks NATO. The Nordics, except for Iceland, are active
and disinformation/influence operations, members of the Centre. The Nordics equally
recognize the importance of the work of the EU
pose a serious and increasing challenge
STRATCOM.
to the Nordic countries. By taking
advantage of the vulnerabilities of There are three key terms often used in
democratic and open societies, hybrid connection with hybrid threats: situational
threat actors undermine Nordic security, awareness, resilience, and deterrence. Going
beyond this, developing countermeasures
prosperity, and values. Hybrid threats
against aggression, is increasingly needed.
are ambiguous and designed to allow
deniability. Therefore, it is difficult, but Cyber has been described as an abstract realm
even more important, to address them. In with its high-speed communication lines, data
all the capitals, interlocutors emphasized collections and processing capabilities. The
results of these virtual world processes are felt
that the Nordics could meet these
when they hit the real world. Hybrid warfare
challenges more effectively together. happens in the real and the virtual world.
The real-world’s segment is in principle well
observed and understood, while the virtual
While countering cyber-attacks and other segment operates stealthily in the invisible
hybrid threats is first and foremost a national world of computers and networks until it shows
responsibility, the Nordic countries must work effects in the real world.
closer together to keep up with ever more
determined and sophisticated adversaries. State and non-state actors deploy hybrid means
Without duplicating existing structures and to challenge countries and institutions that they
means of cooperation, such as NORDEFCO, there see as a threats, opponents or competitors to
is potential for strengthened Nordic cooperation their interests and goals. The range of methods
on several aspects of hybrid threats and cyber and activities is wide, including: espionage;
issues. influencing information; meddling in elections;
intellectual property theft; exploiting logistical
The importance of multilateral cooperation of weaknesses like energy supply pipelines;
like-minded states in fighting cyber and hybrid economic and trade-related blackmail;
threats is undisputed. All Nordic countries undermining international institutions by
recognize the importance of The European rendering rules ineffective; terrorism or
Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid increasing the sense of insecurity; threatening
Threats (Hybrid CoE) in Helsinki, which supports civilian air traffic, maritime communications,
participating states’ individual and collective energy cables and causing maritime incidents.
efforts to enhance their capabilities, resilience,
and preparedness to counter hybrid threats. Strong arguments have pointed out that one
Hybrid CoE is a bridge between the EU and should actually not talk about “hybrid threats”
14Hybrid threats and cyber issues
but rather “hybrid warfare” as at least some and Nokia in this field is often highlighted as
Nordic countries are under constant attack. It important for ensuring a high-tech competition
is of utmost importance to share experiences, edge.
not only to learn from one another but also
to better realize whether there is a pattern to As all countermeasures are sensitive and can
irregularities that might be part of a larger, lead to reprisals, the multinational aspect of
strategic hybrid action directed against some or hybrid and cyber defensive measures make a
all of the Nordic countries. Being up to speed crucial difference. It would be of great value
when it comes to tactical and technological if the Nordics developed common Nordic
trends in the field is crucial. While attribution situational awareness. The ideas of greater
is a national responsibility, multinational collaboration on investment screening through
solidarity is a vital part of hybrid and cyber an increased exchange of information and a
deterrence. The Nordic countries should join Nordic Cyber Security Stamp are also to be
hands in condemning those conducting hybrid considered in this context.
warfare where part of the game is to deny any
culpability. The total defence concept is highly relevant in
hybrid defence as it covers both civilian and
The two state actors most often mentioned as military security. The defence sector depends
posing a threat to the Nordics in this regard on civilian digital infrastructures and services.
are Russia and China. These states have Hybrid security challenges in the civilian sector
developed effective subversive means that go therefore also affect the military sector. In worst
much further in weakening their targets than case scenarios, hybrid attacks on, for example,
fake news and disinformation do. Such means civilian infrastructure may challenge a state‘s
have been used before to prepare the ground ability to safeguard national security.
for illegal annexation, as seen in the Crimea
in the spring of 2014. That event represented a Private companies own and operate the
swift culmination of prolonged Russian efforts majority of Nordic critical digital infrastructure.
to destabilise Ukraine. Russia’s denial of any Commercial, non-state actors make important
responsibility characterised the aftermath. decisions related to the development of
Apart from the illegal incursion in the South cyberspace. This, therefore, limits the role
China Sea, China conducts lower key hybrid of public authorities in the development of
operations than Russia. Social engineering and cyberspace, which in turn calls for extensive
economic espionage are Chinese trademarks public-private partnerships. The necessity of
having social, economic, and financial aims, these partnerships is recognised in all Nordic
mirrored in their efforts to gain access through capitals. The duty of companies and individuals
strategic investments and research projects. together with states is to do their utmost
It is important to conduct foreign investment to guarantee their citizens’ security in this
screening with special emphasis on security, i.a. environment. None of this is possible without
in 5G systems and critical infrastructure. The close international collaboration and exchange
leading role of Nordic companies like Ericsson of information to increase situational awareness.
15PROPOSALS
6. Common understanding of Hybrid Threats
To develop greater hybrid situational awareness, Nordic countries should work towards
a common conceptual and political understanding of the key hybrid threats facing
them, both individually and collectively.
In their cooperation, the Nordics benefit from politicians, need to have the same view on the
their common history, shared sets of principles, nature of the threat and what is at stake before
norms and values, and the high-level of trust they can act together.
characterising their homogenous societies.
Experience with COVID-19 has underscored It is therefore proposed that the Nordics,
the need for increased cooperation to counter guided by their common norms and values and
hybrid threats and ensure that autocratic states taking note of the work being done in the EU
do not win the global narrative. and NATO, develop a common conceptual and
political understanding of the key hybrid threats
Hybrid threats and attacks threaten peace, and potential future threats facing them, both
social cohesion, and security in the region. To individually and collectively. This would enable
defend their societies and promote democratic the Nordic countries to develop greater hybrid
values, the Nordic countries should also strive situational awareness and facilitate the process
for proactive communication in the EU and of mandating the relevant national authorities
NATO, highlighting the successes and solidarity to monitor and detect anomalies, which in
of these institutions. The fact that hybrid threat turn helps them set up early warning systems.
activities are conducted primarily outside the Moreover, this would create the necessary
military domain demands increased cross- ground for common deterrence strategies as
sectoral, i.e., political, civilian, and military as well as the means for national security services
well as multinational cooperation. In this era to effectively respond to hybrid aggressions,
of below-threshold conflicts that increasingly thus moving beyond resilience and deterrence
strain the principles of democracy, rule of law, and instead disrupting or preventing the
and human rights, democratic states, such as aggressor from taking further hybrid action.
the Nordics, must be able to constantly perform
in-depth analysis of specific hybrid challenges. Finally, the Nordic Ministers of Defence have
Informed national and Nordic strategies established secure lines of communication,
are needed, as well as clusters of actors, to which proved useful during the COVID-19
formulate and implement these strategies. pandemic, these secure lines should be
extended to cover the Nordic Ministries of
Knowledge and know-how regarding hybrid Foreign Affairs in order to facilitate discussions
threats and hybrid warfare must increase at about joint responses to hybrid threats.
all levels of society. Political, civilian, and
military decision makers need to become more
knowledgeable of the disruptive potential of
new technological trends. The Nordic countries
should apply all necessary instruments of power
to effectively counter hybrid threats. Whole-of-
society and whole-of-government approaches
are needed. They require effective multinational
cooperation and coordination to amplify and
support them. All the Nordics, starting with the
16Hybrid threats and cyber issues
7. Pandemia preparedness
Drawing on the experiences of Nordic cooperation in tackling COVID-19, the Nordic
countries should reconsider their cooperation on total defence in order to better
prepare for future pandemics.
Hybrid threats are highly relevant in the due to the pandemic. Reciprocal assistance was
context of pandemics like COVID-19. The World granted both through Nordic embassies as well
Health Organization (WHO) underscored that as with highly valuable contributions of Nordic
we face not only a pandemic, but also a global consular services all over the world. Moreover,
“infodemic”. Both the EU and NATO have pointed comprehensive coordination and information
to disinformation activities by Russia and China exchange, related to repatriation of Nordic
during COVID-19. Moreover, hospitals as well as citizens, took place on capital level. COVID-19
pharmaceutical companies, medical-research also revealed a need for increased Nordic
organisations, and universities have experienced cooperation and a lessons-learned process in
increased pressure from hackers who, during the areas beyond hybrid threats, such as consular
crisis, have scaled up cyber-attacks against the services.
health sector. The role of civilian authorities in
dealing with this threat is crucial. Drawing on these experiences of Nordic
cooperation in tackling COVID-19, it is proposed
The Nordic healthcare systems’ guarantee that the Nordic countries reconsider their
of medical service for all is a highly positive cooperation on total defence in a way that
trademark for the Nordic Brand. Due to COVID-19, complements the work of the EU and NATO, in
the demand for health and genetic data based order to better prepare for future pandemics.
on tests has skyrocketed globally. This could be This depends on the relevant national
categorized as a hybrid threat when companies, authorities coming up with a common system
often state-connected, compile biometric data, of analysis, an early warning system, integrated
such as DNA samples, from individuals all over contingency planning and finally unified Nordic
the globe. In this regard, attention has been action. Such a framework might later serve as a
drawn to BGI (formerly the Beijing Genomics model for a Nordic governmental and societal
Institute), a leading Chinese gene sequencing approach in times of major crises.
and biomedical firm, which has distributed
more than 10 million COVID-19 tests to over 80 Moreover, a study should be initiated on a
countries worldwide. Nordic system for security of supply in the
health sector. It should explore what joint means
It is the role of data protection agencies and the countries have to acquire and produce
total or civil defence institutions to analyse essential medicine in major crises. It should
and take measures against threats of this kind. explore the possibility of setting up a Nordic
However, as pandemics are a global threat, it is pharmacy for rare medicine, which would involve
of great value for countries with similar health a Nordic preparedness storage facility for critical
systems and traditions to work closely together medicinal products and devices.
internationally to deter those who might want to
exploit their highly developed systems. This holistic regional approach would be
promoted within international bodies as an
During the COVID-19 crisis the Nordic Ministers example of how transparent international
of Foreign Affairs had teleconferences where cooperation can successfully tackle enormous
common Nordic efforts were discussed, e.g., on challenges like pandemics.
how to assist Nordic citizens stranded abroad
17Nordic Foreign and Security Policy 2020 / Proposals
8. Democratic and rules-based cyberspace
An integrated public-private cooperative arrangement between Nordic governments
and private companies should be used to promote a democratic digital future and
common Nordic values of free speech, privacy, free market, and transparency.
The Nordic countries should be at the forefront However, closer collaboration between the
in the battle for democratic and transparent Nordics should also entail standing together
cyberspace, both in leading by example and when Nordic countries or companies are
through active, strategic international advocacy. threatened or attacked. This requires the
This can be furthered by an integrated public- willingness to expose malign and coercive
private cooperative arrangement, where Nordic information activities of states or other actors
governments and private companies work as well as safeguarding and publicly supporting
together to promote a democratic digital future. both Nordic research communities and
This would entail structured dialogue between independent media.
Nordic governments and private companies to
promote a democratic and rules-based order in In their effort to promote democratic governance
cyberspace as well as a strategic promotion of and respect for human rights in cyberspace,
Nordic digital solutions. the Nordics should actively seek support from
like-minded countries, traditional partners, and
This cooperation should provide impetus for potential partners, both states and companies,
common active and strategic international in their advocacy, finding mutually beneficial
advocacy by the Nordics within multilateral arrangements to underpin such partnerships.
governance bodies such as the UN Group of The proposal is to establish an integrated
Governmental Experts (GGE) and Open Ended public-private cooperative arrangement, where
Working Group (OEWG). Innovative approaches, Nordic governments and private companies
led by Nordic companies and based on common work together to promote a democratic digital
Nordic values of free speech, privacy, free future. This should be underpinned by a cluster
market, and transparency should form the basis approach with leading Nordic companies in
of the Nordics’ argument for a democratic and this field, such as the one being proposed
rules-based order in the digital space. regarding Nordic efforts to approach global
climate change with the Nordic energy sector.
Another aim should also be to support the This would support the efforts of the Nordics in
development of expertise and private initiatives safeguarding liberal, democratic principles of
within competitive fields, such as Artificial the rules-based world order.
Intelligence (AI) and quantum computing to
develop international credibility. Through
increased investments and collaboration in
these fields, the Nordic countries could obtain
the international influence needed to promote
ICT-standards that conform to liberal and
democratic values.
18Hybrid threats and cyber issues
9. Initiative on new technologies and defence against cyber threats
The Nordic governments should consult on an integrated policy, both internally and
on a Nordic level, to prepare for imminent technological developments and resulting
societal transformations. The Nordics should therefore engage in a strategic dialogue
on new technologies in the fields of, e.g., wireless network technology (5G/6G), AI,
quantum computing and blockchain technology.
Defence against hybrid threats and hacking is now part of the joint Nordic transatlantic dialogue
an integral part of national security, which has to on security policy. The Nordic Council’s policy
be dealt with by both civilian and military means. on societal security thus reflects concerns that
The focus is at present on 5G, but 6G is just around should be dealt with by Nordic foreign ministers
the corner and it is timely for Nordic governments as is also made clear in the mandate for this
to prepare for more technological changes by report. The ministers have an important role to
consulting on an integrated policy both internally play not only to secure multinational cooperation
and on a multinational level. in this field but also to educate the public about
the new international and, in many ways, the
In May 2018, the Nordic prime ministers asked the stealth dimension added to modern daily life by
Nordic digitalisation ministers to take the lead to new technologies – dimensions that need to be
ensure that the Nordic region becomes the first secured and defended.
and best interconnected 5G region in the world.
There is a crucial foreign and security policy There are numerous opportunities for public-
aspect to deal with when implementing the prime private Nordic dialogue and initiatives on cyber
ministers’ declaration. Referring to the prime issues. New fora are not needed, but governments
ministers’ request, it is proposed that all Nordic should support active participation in initiatives,
governments coordinate their 5G policies, and such as Nordic IT Security, Cyber Security Nordic,
that the foreign ministers respond to big power and Nordic Cyber Series.
pressure in this field as a new security reality.
The Nordic countries have taken important steps
In October 2019, the Nordic Council unanimously and plan to bridge the gap between actual IT
adopted a new strategy on societal security. It security capabilities and the scale of threats.
includes a specific proposal on cybersecurity, Hostile state and non-state actors in cyberspace
stating that cyber threats are an increasingly are multiplying, and there is a common Nordic
serious problem. It spelled out that not only do concern that additional risks for companies and
the Nordics have everything to gain by standing society will be brought about by the introduction
united in tackling new cyber challenges, but of the new technologies, such as 5G, demanding
a strengthened joint Nordic international collaboration and knowledge sharing not only
collaboration would be of great significance. at the national level but also on the Nordic and
international one.
In the societal security strategy, the Nordic
governments are urged to extend the Nordic- With this in mind, it is therefore also proposed
Baltic collaboration on cybersecurity to include that the Nordics engage in a strategic dialogue
continuous sharing of assessments on threats on new technologies, such as wireless network
in the cyber field. The Nordic countries are technology (5G/6G), AI, quantum computing and
encouraged to ensure, as far as possible, that blockchain technology. Such an initiative would
those of them outside the EU or NATO will have be a good example of how Nordic cooperation
access to collaboration on cybersecurity in can strengthen each country in its response to
these organisations. Lastly, it is proposed that conflicting diplomatic and political pressures from
the inclusion of cybersecurity should be a key the great powers.
19Nordic Foreign and Security Policy 2020 / Proposals
MULTILATERALISM AND THE
RULES-BASED WORLD ORDER
The Nordic countries are deeply The Nordic Brand and the Nordics’ long-standing
concerned by the diminishing trust in reputations as committed multilateralists
provide them with a strong voice in debates
multilateralism when it is most needed
on the future multilateral landscape. Nordic
to solve complex and transboundary cooperation is in line with the Alliance for
global challenges. They, like other smaller Multilateralism, and there is still potential to set
countries, rely heavily on respect for new aims and take the cooperation further.
and the functioning of the rules-based
The narrative on supporting and promoting
international system. Its disruption also
multilateralism to deal with crises is under
undermines the core principles that increased pressure, also in the Nordic countries.
the Nordics share, such as democracy, Some maintain that globalisation and open
the rule of law, and human rights. Free borders create vulnerabilities to viruses and
international trade and travel are basic other threats; each country has first to take care
of its own. However, the facts remain. Climate
features of modern liberal democracies.
change, global inequalities, globalized terrorism,
the digital revolution and, most recently, the
coronavirus pandemic disregard borders and
can only be dealt with collectively.
Promoting multilateralism and a rules-based
world order is even more relevant and pressing
now than when the mandate to write this
report was given. Discussions of the issue in all
the Nordic capitals makes it obvious that the
Norwegian White Paper of 2019 on multilateral
cooperation constitutes a strong basis for
not only Norway but all the Nordic countries.
Solutions found and formulated by the Nordics
can and should be introduced and actively
promoted within the broader international
framework, in a way that appeals to a broader
audience.
At stake is an institutional order that celebrates
its 75th anniversary this year. Since 1945,
an elaborative set of common rules and
mechanisms for peaceful conflict resolution
has been built. The systems rest on state
20Multilateralism and the rules-based world order
sovereignty, international solidarity as well as crisis that followed, where states take measures
liberal values, such as individual rights and to increase “self-reliance”, are likely to prolong
liberties, rule of law, democracy, open market- and deepen the crisis.
based economies, and free trade. At the core
of this rules-based international system, Trade wars and protectionist policies threaten
where right prevails over might, are a range of not only economic prosperity but also peace
institutions, such as the UN, the International and security. An economic downturn can push
Court of Justice (ICJ), the World Bank, the World unstable, poorer states or regions into even
Trade Organization (WTO) and the International more turmoil. The economies of the US and
Monetary Fund (IMF), which all remain essential China are still very interdependent. A further
to maintaining the rules and facilitating peaceful decoupling of the world’s two largest economies
cooperation and conflict resolution between can contribute to escalation of strategic distrust,
states. with wide-ranging implications for international
security. For the Nordics, having been committed
The liberal world order was never truly global, to the established rules-based world order for
but the United States had the strength, authority the last seven decades, the situation today is
and will to sustain it. The shifting global power a great challenge. The proposals mainly aim
balances raise question marks about the future at finding and utilizing the best tools available
of this order. The US is more inward looking to promote Nordic core values worldwide in a
than ever since the end of World War II and modern and peaceful manner.
is increasingly withdrawing from multilateral
fora. The United Kingdom, a key partner for
the Nordics in the field of foreign and security
policy, is taking a new international course with
Brexit. In the European Union, a fundamental
discussion on the core values of liberal
democracies is taking place. Within the Council
of Europe, Russia’s membership has been called
into question due to its disregard of basic
human rights. And contrary to what so many had
hoped, China retains a different mind-set than
liberal democracies.
Even before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic,
increasing protectionist policies of many states
and the Sino-US trade war had led to a decrease
in international trade and investment and
disrupted global supply chains. The protectionist
response to the pandemic and the economic
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