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Message from the Director-General Coping with low fertility and an aging population are the crucial policy challenges for Japan. Having undergone dramatic economic growth and rapid social developments after the Second World War, our longevity and living standards have greatly risen. However, with a large increase of elderly people, social security expenditures to the public pension, medical and nursing care services and so on, have also increased markedly. Meanwhile, the youth population, who should shoulder those social security burdens, has been continuing to decline, which was recently followed by a decline of the total population. Amid these challenges, how to sustain our living standards is the greatest issue for Japan. Indeed, the rapidly-aging society and the shrinking population are a world’s first for humankind. Japan is now beginning on this trend, however it is not only the case of Japan; more than a few Asian countries and other countries in the rest of the world are to encounter the same challenges sooner or later. Therefore, our experiences grappling with those challenges should be the touchstone for all the people in the world. In order to address these challenges and create a sustainable, healthy and culturally vibrant society for all people, highly precise and detailed scientific evidences are indispensable for policy makers. Our mission is to produce such data through our own researches, social surveys on the multi-facets of demographics and people’s lives, and highly precise population projections. Our institution, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, placed under the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, was established in 1996 through the integration of the former two public policy research institutes; the Institute of Population Problems, placed under the Ministry of Health and Welfare, and the Social Development Research Institute, which was a governmental cooperation. Along with investigating the multi-facets of demographics and people’s lives, we have conducted a plenty of independent researches concerning social security policies of Japan and other countries. The data we produce on demographics are the foundations for determining the entire range of national and local public policies, including the public pension and other social security policies. Furthermore, our data are highly evaluated not only by public policy makers, but also by those in the business sector, international organizations, and academics all over the world. In addition, regional disparities and time-series f luctuations of fertilities, the pace of aging and population decline are extreme in Japan, and people’s values and lifestyles have also diversified recently so much. Moreover, other relevant issues such as poverty, gender inequality, and social inclusion at community level are also at the top of the agenda. Our mission is to cover all those issues, produce high-quality scientific evidences and disseminate them widely to the society, in the collaboration with all related agencies of national and local governments, and academic institutions in Japan and the world. We, all IPSS staff, shall realize our mission and responsibility to society and endeavor to reach to a higher goal than ever. We sincerely ask for your understanding and warm support to our activities. April 2020 Kuniaki Tanabe Director-General National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Table of Contents Message from the Director-General ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1 Table of Contents ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������2 History �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������3 Population Projection ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 4 The Financial Statistics of Social Security in Japan Providing data for relevant government ministries and international organizations����������������������� 6 Annual Population and Social Security Surveys (general statistics) ��������������������������������������������������7 The National Fertility Survey The National Survey on Migration ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 8 The National Survey on Social Security and People’s Life The National Survey on Family in Japan ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 9 The National Survey on Household Changes Major Research Projects ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������10 1. Research for a society in which everyone is able to participate A Comprehensive Study on the Realization Strategy of Japan’s Plan for Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens (from FY2017) [In-house project] 2. Demographic and interdisciplinary analysis of Japan’s longevity ����������������������������������������������� 11 Modeling and Comprehensive Analysis of Population, Economy and Society of Ultra-Longevity (FY2020–2022) [In-house project] 3. A mid the massive immigration inflow, shedding light on the dynamics of emigration pressure from Asian countries ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������12 Survey on Emigration Pressure of Asian Countries (FY2019–2020) [In-house project] 4. Big data utilization in the health promotion measures of local governments ����������������������������� 13 Project for the promotion of evidence-based policy-making in the health sector by local governments using the claims data for health and long-term care insurance (FY2020) [In-house project] Other Research Projects International Cooperation �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������14 Seminars��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 15 Publication, Database������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 16 Library Organization �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 17 Advice and Evaluation by External Experts �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������18
History Institute of 1939.8 Institute of Population Problems established Population Problems 1940.4 Publication of the Journal of Population Problems started 1940.5 The first estimation of future population Integrated with Research Institute of the Ministry of Health and 1942.11 Welfare to become Department of Population of the Ministry’ s Research Institute Attained independence once again to become the Institute of 1946.5 Population Problems Recommendation of the establishment of a research institute by the Advisory 1962.8 Council on Social Security System Social Development Research Institute established 1965.1 Social Development Research Institute Publication of the Quarterly of 1965.1 Social Security Research started Publication of the Overseas 1968.1 Social Security News started Started collecting statistics 1984.8 on social security benefits National Institute of Population 1996.12 Integration of Institute of Population Problems and and Social Security Research Social Development Research Institute 2014.8 75th Anniversary of Institute of Population Problems 50th Anniversary of 2015.1 Social Development Research Institute 20th Anniversary of Institute of Population and 2016.12 Social Security Research Before World War II, the concern for overpopulation grew due to the food shortage and unemployment, and population problems drew wide public attention in view of securing human resources. Consequently, in August 1939, the Institute of Population Problems was established. It was the first national research institute in the world that focused on population issues. After World War II, a decline in fertility rates and the aging of the population became evident as the economy developed, and the importance of systems and policies to cope with these issues became apparent. Moreover, social security in Japan progressed steadily and the universal coverage of public pension and health insurance was achieved by the mid-1960s. However, basic as well as comprehensive research systems to study social security had yet to be organized. In January 1965, the Social Development Research Institute was established under the recommendation of Advisory Council on Social Security System. Continuous trends of low fertility, aging, and slowdown in economic growth have brought the relationship between population and social security closer. As such, there arose a growing need to understand the interaction between the two fields. On the other hand, during this period, the reorganization of research institutions under the Ministry of Health and Welfare was requested in the context of government reform to better cope with the evolving situation of Japanese society. In December 1996, the Institute of Population and Social Security Research was created by integrating two institutes – the Institute of Population Problems and the Social Development Research Institute. August 2014 marked the 75th anniversary of the Institute of Population Problems, January 2015 marked the 50th anniversary of the Social Development Research Institute, and December 2016 marked the 20th anniversary of the Institute of Population and Social Security Research. 3
Population Projection In order to provide basic information for planning the mid- to long-term national social security systems and for other related policies, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research releases various population and household projections: “Population Projections for Japan,” “Regional Population Projections for Japan,” Household Projections for Japan,” and “Household Projections for Japan by Prefecture.” Population Projections for Japan “Population Projections for Japan” is a projection of the overall size and the age-sex breakdown of Japan’s future population, used widely as an important reference by the national and local governments and in other various fields. These projections are based on demographic analyses using the Census, vital statistics, and the national representative surveys conducted by the Institute. ● Population in Japan (Million) 98.27 million 127.09 million 88.08 million 140 Total Population (1965) (2015) (2065) 120 Population aged 65+ 50.56 million 36.65 million 26.6% (2115) 100 (1880) 43.85 million (1900) 6.3% 80 60 68.1% 38.4% Population aged 15 to 64 60.8% 40 51.4% Sources: Population Estimates by 20 the Cabinet Bureau of Statistics, 25.6% “Population Census”, “Population Population aged 0 to 14 12.5% Estimates”, by Statistics Bureau, 10.2% 0 Population Projections for Japan: 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2016-2065 (Medium Variant) Year ● Changes in Population Pyramid 1965 120 2065 100 Male 90 Female 120 80 Male Female 70 100 60 50 90 40 80 30 20 70 10 0 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 60 Population (10,000) 50 Fertility – low variant 40 2015 120 100 30 Fertility – medium variant Male 90 Female 20 80 Fertility – high variant 70 10 60 50 0 40 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 30 Population (10,000) 20 10 0 Sources: Population Projections for Japan: 2016-2065 (Medium Variant) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Population (10,000) Sources: Population Census 4
Regional Population Projections Under the circumstances of the aging population and low fertility rates throughout the country, regional population projections for Japan are used as the basic data for formulating various socioeconomic and community welfare plans. While the population is declining and aging nationwide, there are considerable regional variations in the trends of the elderly population and the aging rate. ● Population aged 65 and over (aged 65–74, and 75 and over) by prefecture (2015 and 2045) (10,000) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Tokyo Kanagawa Osaka Saitama Aichi Chiba Hyogo Hokkaido Fukuoka Shizuoka Ibaraki Hiroshima Kyoto 75 years old or older (2045) Miyagi 2045 65-74 years old (2045) Niigata Nagano 75 years old or older (2015) Gunma Gifu 65-74 years old (2015) Okayama Tochigi Fukushima Mie Kumamoto Kagoshima Okinawa Shiga Ehime Yamaguchi Nara Nagasaki Aomori Iwate Oita Ishikawa Yamagata Miyazaki Toyama 2030 Akita 50% and over Kagawa Wakayama 40 to 50% Yamanashi 30 to 40% Saga Fukui 20 to 30% Tokushima 2015 20% and under Kochi Shimane Tottori ● Percentage of population aged 65 and over by municipality in 2015, 2030 and 2045 * Fukushima Prefecture is a projection for the entire prefecture Sources: 2015 Census and Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2015-2045 5
The Financial Statistics of Social Security in Japan Providing data for relevant government ministries and international organizations Every year, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research releases “The Financial Statistics of Social Security in Japan.” The statistics estimate both total and categorical amounts of annual receipt and expenditure on social security schemes in Japan on the basis of two international standards; the ILO (International Labour Organization) standards and the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) standards. In 2012, “The Financial Statistics of Social Security in Japan” was designated as under the scope of Fundamental Statistics by the Statistical Act. According to the time-series trend of social benefit by three categories, the benefits for pensions and medical care have been increasing year by year as a result of the ongoing phenomenon of population aging and the advancement of medical technology. ● Social benefit by category (Trillion Yen) 60 Pensions 55 54.9 trillion yen (45.6%) 50 Medical care 36.5 trillion yen 45 (32.8%) 40 35 30 25 20 15 Welfare & others 26 trillion yen 10 (21.6%) 5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2017 (Fiscal Year) The international comparison shows that most social expenditure goes to the elderly in Japan. According to the comparative social expenditure per GDP by nine policy areas, social expenditure on the elderly – such as pension or long-term care benefits – is the second highest, while social expenditure on family – such as family benefits – is the second lowest among the six developed countries compared. Statistics have been broadly used as fundamental sources to monitor social security policies and their financing, and also as a significant index to conduct international comparisons of social security expenditures. ● International Comparison of Social Expenditure relative to GDP in FY2015 (%) 35 30 25 20 Other social policy areas Housing 15 Unemployment Active labor market programmes 10 Family Health 5 Incapacity-related benefits Survivors 0 Old age Japan Japan UK USA Sweden Germany France (FY2017) Made by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research based on the materials below Sources: S ocial Expenditure for OECD countries except Japan is based on the OECD Social Expenditure database. (Downloaded on 24th May 2019) GDP data on Japan are based on the Cabinet Office’s “Annual Report on National Accounts for FY 2017,” while the data on other countries are calculated by IPSS using the data from the OECD Annual National Accounts Database. (Downloaded on 24th May 2019) 6
Annual Population and Social Security Surveys (general statistics) ● Annual Population and Social Security Surveys (general statistics) The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research conducts nationwide surveys (referred to as Annual Population and Social Security Surveys) on five different themes. The results of each survey are used as basic data for policy making by national and local governments, and are also widely used in various fields. National Survey National Survey National Fertility National Survey National Survey on Social Security on Household Survey in 2015 on Migration on Family in 2018 and People’s Changes in 2016 Life in 2017 in 2019 The National Fertility Survey The National Fertility Survey is a nationwide survey conducted every 5 years by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in order to investigate 平成 27 年度 the current state of and issues related to marriage, childbirth, and child- rearing平成in Japan. 26 年度 It consists of a survey targeting married couples 平成 出生動向基本調査 and23another 年度 one targeting unmarried individuals. Accompanied 世帯動態調査 by the continuing trend of low fertility rate in Japan, population 人口移動調査 decline, population 1940 年に第 1aging and changes in 回調査が行われ、 the way in which people live all influence the future of Japanese society. One of the important purposes of this survey is ほぼ 5 年周期で実施しています。 to understand the state平成 of 25 low年度fertility rate and to explore 平成 24its年度 causes. The survey asks unmarried individuals about their willingness to marry全国家庭動向調査 and their lifestyles, and married couples about their willingness to have children and their fertility 生活と支え合いに関する調査 behavior, as well as their work and child-rearing environments. By doing so, the survey depicts changes overtime and identifies new issues through comparison with previous surveys and across different sociodemographic characteristics. The results of this survey are used as reference material to determine the future fertility rate in population 1940 年に第 projections. In addition平成 to24being 年度 used to evaluate 平成 policy targets, such as the Outline 25 年度 平成 of 年度 27 Measures 1for Society with 回調査が行 平成 23 年度 平成 26 年度 Declining Birthrate and the Regional Empowerment 生活と支え合いに 全国家庭 for Japan’s Growth Comprehensive出生動向 Strategy, it is also われ、ほぼused5 to show 人口移動調査 世帯動態調査 the state of and issues related 関する調査 to the declining birthrate, for many official reports, such 動向調査 as the Annual年周期で実施 基本調査 Health, Labour しています。 and Welfare Report, the Declining Birthrate White Paper, the White Paper on Gender Equality, and materials of various policy committees. Changes in employment status of wives Changes in married couples’ ideal and intended before and after giving birth, number of children and unmarried men and by birth year of the first child women’s desired number of children, by survey years Looking at the employment status of wives before and With regard to the ideal and intended number of children after giving birth to their first child, it can be seen that the for married couples and the desired number of children percentage of wives who were employed both before and for unmarried men and women, data shows that overall, after birth was 38.3% in 2010-2014, which was a large the average number for each has been declining since the increase compared to previous years. It is worth noting 1980s. that there was a significant growth in the percentage of wives who used parental leave after giving birth to their first child. Among wives who were employed before giving birth, 53.1% continued their employment. ●Changes in employment status of wives before and after ●Changes in the ideal, intended and desired number of giving birth, by birth year of the first child children (average), by survey 100 Ideal, intended and desired number of children (average) 3.1% 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 4.1% 4.2% % 2.8 2.67 2.62 2.64 24.0% 23.6% 80 35.5% 34.6% 32.8% 28.4% 2.6 2.56 2.53 2.48 2.42 2.4 2.34 60 2.30 33.9% B 2.23 2.29 2.32 42.9% 46.9% 40.3% 2.2 2.16 2.23 2.13 2.12 37.3% 37.7% 39.3% Employed 2.20 2.11 40 before 2.23 2.18 2.17 2.15 2.02 10.0% giving birth 2.0 2.13 2.10 2.05 2.07 2.01 2.07 9.7% 2.03 2.04 20 12.2% 13.0% A C 1.91 18.4% 16.3% 38.3% 53.1% 1.8 28.3% 19.4% 15.3% 8.1% 11.2% 5.7% 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0.0 -1989 -1994 -1999 -2004 -2009 -2014 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th Birth year of the first child (1982) (1987) (1992) (1997) (2002) (2005) (2010) (2015) Unknown A: Continued to work Ideal number of children (married couple) Not employed prior to pregnancy (Among those employed before giving birth) Intended number of children (married couple) Stopped working upon giving birth B: Stopped working upon giving birth Desired number of children (unmarried women) Continued to work (no parental leave) C: Continued to work Continued to work (used parental leave) Desired number of children (unmarried men) Notes: Married couples include wives age are under 50, and unmarried men and women are between 18 and 34 years of age 7
The National Survey on Migration The National Survey on Migration is conducted ●Percentage of those who moved from and then returned to to obtain fundamental data on the trends and the prefecture of birthplace prospects of the geographic mobility of the people liv ing in Japan. The sur vey prov ides detailed data on individual migration experiences that are not obtained from other governmental statistics 15.2 such as the Population Census and registration- based migration statistics. The survey consists of retrospective questions on place of residence at major life events (e.g., birth, completion of school, 24.0 first job, marriage, and so on) as well as that of 1 25.9 and 5 years earlier, the prefectures in which the 22.6 respondents have lived (including outside Japan), 29.3 22.6 19.2 and prospects of residence 5 years ahead. The results are used in formulating regional population 21.4 20.6 projections in Japan and informing various policies. 22.1 25.9 23.8 21.5 17.6 21.1 18.4 The results of the 8th National Sur vey on 25.2 21.7 19.8 22.8 19.7 17.4 17.1 Migration, conducted in July 2016, show that due to 28.5 20.7 18.3 19.2 20.0 15.4 23.4 22.8 16.6 the population ageing, both past mobility and future 22.9 23.5 16.521.9 26– prospect of migration are declining slowly. The 21.7 20.2 25.8 27.5 23.8 25.1 24–26 25.9 most frequent reasons for migration are housing 23.8 22–24 30.0 20–22 related reasons, work related reasons and change 28.8 Less than 20 (%) in marital status. Those who currently live in the 0 500km No survey same prefecture as that of their birthplace account for 68.6 per cent of the total respondents, with the percentage being relatively lower in the Tokyo area. The National Survey on Social Security and People’s Life Japanese society is undergoing population ageing and changes in household structures at an unprecedented speed. In order to maintain the long-term sustainability of our social security system, it is necessary to implement a series of reforms while also keeping in mind a delicate balance of self-help, mutual-help (by family members) and public help. The National Survey on Social Security and People’s Life is conducted to understand the challenges people face regarding their living conditions, and how they cope with them by supporting each other – through family members and within communities. ●Percentage of those who answered “No” as to whether ●Frequency of conversation: by household (hh) type there was someone they could rely on for financial (persons aged 65 and above) assistance in an emergency or to consult with on Among elderly persons aged 65 and above, most have conversations important matters (persons aged 18 and above) with someone at least every day. However, among elderly men who live Percentage of those who answered “No” as to whether there was someone in single-person households, 16.7% have conversation less than once in they could rely on for financial assistance in an emergency is high in two weeks. single-parent households and low-income households with children. Also, the percentage of those who answered “No” as to whether there was someone they could consult with on important matters is high in single- parent households. These results are used as indicators in the Outline of Measures against Child Poverty. (Here, low-income household refers to those with the 1st to 3rd deciles of equivalent disposable income.) 30 100 90 Men (single-person hh) as to whether there was someone they could rely on Single-parent households 25.9% 25 1st to 3rd deciles of equivalent Men (couple-only hh) 80 Percentage of those who answered “No” disposable income Women (single-person hh) All samples 70 20.4% Percentage of individuals 20 Women (couple-only hh) 60 16.2% 15 50 40 8.9% 10 30 7.2% 7.2% 20 5 10 0 0 Financial assistance Consultation on Every day Once every Once every Less than once in an emergency important matters 2-3 days 4-7 days in 2 weeks 8
The National Survey on Family in Japan Accompanied by low fertility rates and population aging, the family in Japan is undergoing major changes in its structure and functions, including the increase in dual income families and single-person households. The National Survey on Family in Japan examines the current status and changes in functions of the family, such as childbearing, child-rearing, financial support and caring of elderly parents, as well as the factors behind these changes. As a comprehensive survey of families and households, this survey offers valuable data, which are used as basic references for drawing up various policies. ●Changes in the percentage of those who agree and disagree with ideas on gender roles, by survey round The attitude toward gender roles has changed over the last decade, and it has become clear that there is support for equally sharing housework and child- rearing in particular. (%) 100 50 0 50 100 4th survey (2008) 6.7 41.0 38.7 13.6 After marriage, the husband should work 5th survey (2013) 5.4 39.5 39.2 15.9 outside the home while the wife should 4.1 34.0 40.1 21.8 6th survey (2018) concentrate on housework Mothers with children under three-years 4th survey (2008) 43.9 42.8 10.3 3.0 old should devote themselves to 5th survey (2013) 28.6 48.7 16.8 5.9 child-rearing and not hold a job 6th survey (2018) 23.4 47.8 19.9 8.9 4th survey (2008) 24.9 57.6 16.1 1.5 Husbands should share housework and 5th survey (2013) 23.3 57.2 17.6 1.9 child-rearing equally 6th survey (2018) 28.6 55.1 14.7 1.6 4th survey (2008) 25.4 52.4 17.7 4.5 The father should make the final decision on important family matters 5th survey (2013) 19.4 52.2 21.8 6.6 6th survey (2018) 14.5 49.9 25.2 10.3 When work and family matters 4th survey (2008) 14.3 53.5 28.4 3.7 coincide, husbands should give 5th survey (2013) 13.1 53.9 29.6 3.5 priority to their work 6th survey (2018) 10.7 51.4 32.9 4.9 4th survey (2008) 26.4 48.9 19.2 5.5 Boys should be raised to be manly and 5th survey (2013) 15.7 51.5 25.2 7.6 girls, feminine 6th survey (2018) 10.3 46.1 30.9 12.7 Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Completely disagree The National Survey on Household Changes The structure of households in Japan is undergoing significant changes. These changes include not only the expected decline in the number of total households, but also the increase in one-person households, couple-only households, and single parent households. The National Survey on Household Changes attempts to capture the detailed process of formation, expansion, compression and dissolution of households. Such data on household dynamics are difficult to find in other surveys, and the results are utilized to project the number of households in the future and for policy purposes. ●Percentage of empty nest * households by age of the head of the household ( ) (%) 35 The figure on the left shows the percentage of empty nest(*) 5th survey (2004) households that formed in the past five years by age of the 29.2 head. The 7th survey showed a decrease in the groups of 30 6th survey (2009) those in their 50s compared with previous surveys, while 26.6 7th survey (2014) there was a marked increase of a similar type in groups aged 25 60 to 74, which shows a consequence of the delay of children leaving parental home. 21.0 19.4 20 16.7 15.5 15.0 15 9.5 10 8.7 5 0 Total (50+) 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80–84 85+ (*) Empty nest refers to a household which consisted only of parents after their child(ren) left home to work or to get married, etc. 9
Major Research Projects 1. R esearch for a society in which everyone is able to participate A Comprehensive Study on the Realization Strategy of Japan’s Plan for Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens (from FY2017) [In-house project] A key concept toward realizing the Plan for Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens is to create a “virtuous cycle of sustainable growth and distribution driven by inclusion and diversity.” Thus, it is important to enhance support for those who have difficulties in social participation, which includes those who are raising children or are caring for the elderly. This research project studies the circumstances in which support is needed for persons who do not have the means to support themselves, including cases where there are barriers to social participation and also those facing financial hardship, those with a heavy burden of daily household chores, and those with inconsistent home care. The project researches ideal ways of implementing various measures from an empirical perspective on 1) the inclusion of young people, 2) support for children and child-rearing, and 3) the inclusion of persons with disabilities, by examining the current state of lifestyle support needs and their factors. Empirical Research on Inclusion of Younger Generations A comparative analysis on the support needs of the “employment Ice Age” generation has been implemented, based on group interviews targeting those aged from 36–45 years old, 20–35 years old, and 46–60 years old, respectively as of 2017. The research also identifies the actual situation of consultation from counselors of the same generation from the consultation desk for services and support for needy persons and studies the issue of support to stabilize their lives. The table below illustrates the difference in the important livelihood support needs by regions in which people of the “Ice Age” generation are living. ● Priorities of livelihood support needs in the non-regular employment “employment Ice Age” generation (unmarried) group Outside the 23 wards of Region 23 wards of Tokyo Kyoto Sendai Tokyo 1 Livelihood Income stability Preparation of laws for companies “Society in which it is easier to work” Rank of importance of support and “work style” Requests regarding working environment 2 Health Wages and work style Requests for temporary staffing/ 3 Healthcare Health first New work style non-regular employment 4 Work Workplace environment Worker training Child-rearing support “Workplace where it is easy to take maternity 5 Education A helping society leave and childcare leave system” Support for birth and child-rearing and “nursery school” Source: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, “Comprehensive Research aimed at Realizing the ‘Plan for Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens: Report on Group Interviews Relating to the Support Needs of the Employment Ice Age Generation,” 2019, p. 59. Empirical Research on Support for Children and Child-rearing This research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the records of abuse consultations, which detail the circumstances of children, guardians, households, etc. before and after the occurrence of abuse, and examines the circumstances leading to difficulties in rearing children and issues of the provision of support. The table below shows the variation in the items of the consultation records of the surveyed child counseling centers A-F, H, I. ● Comparison of basic information in child abuse consultation records across the surveyed child counseling centers ( ○ indicates that there is a description in the document) A B C D E F H I Name of child 〇 〇 〇 〇 ○ ○ ○ ○ Gender of child 〇 〇 〇 ○ ○ ○ ○ Date of birth / age of child 〇 〇 〇 〇 ○ ○ ○ ○ Registered domicile of child 〇 ○ ○ ○ Head of registered domicile of child 〇 Current address of child ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Telephone No. of child ○ ○ ○ Child’s possession of Special Education Record Book or ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ Handbook for the Physically Disabled and severity level History of child ○ Family composition (name, date of birth, age, education, ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ employment, cohabitating or separated, etc.) Source: Hisao Endo, Masato Noda, Kota Toma, supervisor, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, ed., “Roles and Issues of Child Guidance Centers in Japan: Analysis of Support, Cooperation and Collaboration Based on Abuse Couseling Record Documents,” University of Tokyo Press, 2020, p. 188. 10
2. Demographic and interdisciplinary analysis of Japan’s longevity Modeling and Comprehensive Analysis of Population, Economy and Society of Ultra-Longevity (FY2020–2022) [In-house project] The life expectancy in Japan has grown significantly in the latter half of the 20th century, and Japan now boasts one of the longest lifespans in the world. According to the “Population Projections for Japan: 2016-2065 ,” the life expectancy is projected to increase. The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research has conducted demographic and interdisciplinary analysis of Japan’s longevity. With the increase of the life expectancy, the Institute conducts research relating to the comprehensive data analysis and modeling of demographics, the economy, and the ultra-longevity society, such as promoting research on the relationship between the development of extended longevity in Japan, one of the world’s countries with the longest-lived citizens, and healthy life period, such as the extended healthy life expectancy. Through this research, the Insitute seeks remedies for the coming hyper-aged society, and disseminates our research within Japan and abroad. ●Japanese Mortality Database All Japan: Life Table Data Series The Institute has developed for the first time Available Dates Age interval x Year interval in Japan the Japanese Mortality Database, 1x1 1x5 1x10 5x1 5x5 5x10 a comprehensive reorganization of Japan’s Period Data mortality table, which is consistent with the Births 1947-2016 1 year inter nationa lly renow n Human Mor ta lit y Database. The database has been published on our Japanese and English websites. Deaths 1947-2016 1x1 1x5 1x10 5x1 5x5 5x10 Deaths by Lexis triangles 1947-2016 1x1 Population Size 1947-2016 1 year 5 year (Inferential statistics: Jan. 1) Exposure-to-risk 1947-2016 1x1 1x5 1x10 5x1 5x5 5x10 Death rates 1947-2016 1x1 1x5 1x10 5x1 5x5 5x10 Life tables Females 1947-2016 1x1 1x5 1x10 5x1 5x5 5x10 Males 1947-2016 1x1 1x5 1x10 5x1 5x5 5x10 Total (both sexes) 1947-2016 1x1 1x5 1x10 5x1 5x5 5x10 Life expectancy at birth 1947-2016 1 year 5 year 10 year ●Organizing long-term series statistics on causes of death (E.g.: heart disease) 120000 In general, when the ICD* is revised it becomes a completely separate system and the figures have no 100000 Step 1: Elimination of the ICD-9 application continuity. For example, there is a discontinuity in period series using an original method ICD-9 original (modification of discontinuity from 1993 the number of deaths due to heart disease from 1993 to 1994) to 1995 when looking at the number of deaths due to 80000 Step 2: Re-classification of ICD-9 Codes into heart disease in Japan. This seems to be due to the in- ICD-10 using HCD method (modification of discontinuity from 1994 to 1995) fluence of the WHO’s recommendation to “not record 60000 only heart failure and other ailments ‘heart failure’ as the condition just before death” and due to the re- vision of the ICD (introduction of ICD-10). Therefore, 40000 Effects of attention an attempt to rearrange the statistics based on the old ICD-10 on heart failure classification into a classification based on ICD-10 has 20000 been made by the Human Cause-of-Death Database ICD-9 modified (HCD). This project has cooperated with HCD. 0 * ICD is the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Related Health Problems, provided by the WHO. Statistics on the causes of death in Japan and other countries around the world are basically divided according to this classification. ●Population by subjective health obtained from life table analysis 2013 (Female) In examining the subjective health of women by age, 100000 the most common health status is “not bad,” but not 90000 “relatively poor.” This is thought to be because when 80000 health levels deteriorate, women may be admitted to a Relatively poor facility or hospital or die. Comparing 2001 and 2013, 70000 “relatively good” decreased for both men and women Not bad 60000 in their 50s and early 60s, while “relatively poor” for Relatively good 50000 both men and women increased in their early 80s. In a facility or hospital From these results, it can be inferred that up to the 40000 age of 60, the proportion of people with good health 30000 decreases, which means the health level deteriotates 20000 ne gat ively, wh i le for p e ople i n t hei r 80 s, t he 10000 proportion of those in poor health increases, which means the health level deteriorates more severely . 0 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 Years of Age 11
3. Amid the massive immigration inflow, shedding light on the dynamics of emigration pressure from Asian countries Survey on Emigration Pressure of Asian Countries (FY2019–2020) [In-house project] Against the backdrop of strong demographic pressure and the immaturity of their domestic labor markets, Asian countries are among the most active regions in the world for sending labor beyond their borders, and Japan serves as an attractive candidate as a destination. In recent years in particular, there is growing interest in labor from Asian countries as Japan has been accepting migrant labor from abroad due to its own labor shortage caused by low fertility. However, even in international immigration research, there is still much that is unknown as there is still little collective knowledge about such labor migration from Asian countries. Given this situation, this project aims to clarify the following points on the movement of labor from Asian countries to other countries. First, it summarizes the policies of Asian countries with regard to sending labor beyond their borders. Second, it identifies the market structure of private brokerage companies (agencies, agents, sub-agents, brokers) in each country. In order to understand these points, the project conducted a survey in 2019 of China, Vietnam, and Nepal based on their circumstances of sending labor to Japan and the extent of their socio-economic development. As a result, it is becoming evident what kinds of educational backgrounds in each country are driving international migration to Japan and through what kinds of routes in each country, such as technical training and studying abroad, each international migration is occurring. In addition to these countries, a survey of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar is planned in 2020. ●Aim of surveys (1) What kinds of people, (2) For what purpose, (3) What pathways do they take to migrate? 1. Population dynamics 2. State of migration 3. Structure of 4. Future and macro-economic of international labor intermediary services developments situation for laborers in international and students labor migration ■ Population ■ Policies and ■ Structure and ■ Sending labor to dynamics and future systems for sending pathways of Japan and estimates labor forces intermediary possibility of ■ Economic situation ■ Characteristics of services and actors competition with and economic migrants ■ Cost structure of other destination disparity with Japan international migrant countries ■ Purpose of ■ International migration labor and students industry and ■ Role and expecta- domestic tions of government employment (1) What kinds of State of pressure Will Japan people and (2) (3) What pathways? to send labor be chosen? for what purpose? The situations of: Are there differences in Are there differences in Future development of: Population estimates destination and intermediary agencies Expectations of new Stage of economic method (labor/study and pathways by? status of residence, development abroad) depending on Students “Specified Skilled Enrollment rate in the situations of: Labor (skilled) Worker” higher education Home country Labor (technical Position of Japan Unemployment rate Education level intern training) among numerous Sex destinations A will to migrate Main perspective of analysis 12
4. Big data utilization in the health promotion measures of local governments Project for the promotion of evidence-based policy-making in the health sector by local governments using the claims data for health and long-term care insurance (FY2020) [In-house project] In Japan, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare and the All-Japan Federation of National Health Insurance Organizations are preparing data on medical examinations, healthcare, and long-term care. While it is expected that prefectures and municipalities will implement health projects using this data (Data Health), the acquisition of analysis methods for medical expenses and the accumulation of know-how by local governments are issues for system operation. This research project collaborates with the Iwate Prefecture (Iwate Prefecture Citizens’ Plan (2019–2028) “Health Promotion Project”) to realize Data Health in all prefectures, including Iwate Prefecture. Specifically, it will use the “Iwate Prefecture Medical Big Data” independently constructed by Iwate Prefecture, and the National Health Insurance Database System (KDB), to collect evidence for the efficient use of healthcare and long-term care services and provide different types of support for the implementation of health projects based on this evidence. The results of this research will be disseminated to other prefectures with the aim of realizing nationwide Data Health. ●Outline of this research project I. Construct database II. Analysis III. Support for local governments • Support construction of Iwate • Identification of various health risks (lifestyle-related diseases, • Provision of evidence to the Prefecture Medical Big Data dementia, falls/bone fractures, untaken health checkups, etc.) prefecture and the health and IPSS • Link KDB data and Iwate • Identification of health projects that contribute to extending healthy long-term care insurers Prefecture Medical Big Data life expectancy (improving the rate of health checkups, long-term • Support analysis for local care prevention projects tailored to the region, etc.) government staff and support drafting of plan Construction of database Drafting of plan and health project Iwate Prefecture/ • Iwate Prefecture Citizens’ Plan (2019–2028) Health Promotion • Draft plan and health project based on evidence health and Project • Realize an efficient health and long-term care system (cost long-term • Construct Iwate Prefecture Medical Big Data (database of optimization, improvement of healthy life expectancy) care insurers health/medical/long-term care) Disseminate the knowledge gained from initiatives in Iwate Prefecture to other prefectures in collaboration with Regional Offices of Health and Welfare Other Research Projects Projects by MHLW Grant ● Research on manpower estimation from the perspective of supply and demand to secure human resources for medical and welfare professionals (FY2020) ● The methods and applications of population/household projections in the era of long-term depopulation and growing global migration (FY2020– 2022) ● Research on analysis and evaluation method development of multiple causes of death under the transformation of population health and disease structure (FY2020–2022) ● Research on the situation and responses to low fertility and population ageing in China, Japan and Korea (FY2020–FY2022) Projects by MEXT Grant ● Demography of Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity: Building a Foundation for Research in Japan (FY2016–FY2020) ● Panel Survey of Immigrants in Japan (PSIJ) (FY2017–FY2020) ● Sociological disability statistics for the measurement of social exclusion against disabled people (FY2018–FY2020) ● Research on social stratification, employment, and intergenerational reproduction of social inequality in single parent families (FY2018–FY2020) ● Consequences of “welfare-to-work” policies for time use of single mothers (FY2019–FY2021) ● Saving behavior of small households: An international comparative study (FY2019–FY2021) ● Projection of educational pairing-specific fertility: An application of two-sex fertility model (FY2019–FY2021) ● A Comparative Study on Support for Foster Parents between Japan and Italy: aiming to reveal the social background of “Deinstitutionalization” (FY2019–FY2022) ● Applied microeconomic analysis of living standards of the elderly before and after retirement (FY2019–FY2022) ● Study on the background of the diversity of elderly care systems in East Asia (FY2020–FY2022) ● Analysis and theory construction for population decline using a generalized Leslie matrix model (FY2020–FY2023) ● Empirical research on the effect of satisfying social security and life supporting needs to the continuation of community dwelling (FY2020–FY2024) Commissioned Research of Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) ● Health and Long-term Care information in Ageing Asia (FY2019–FY2020) Note: T he above research projects are conducted by researchers belonging to IPSS. 13
International Cooperation Organizing the Foreign Scholar Lecture Series and International Workshops The Foreign Scholar Lecture Series and International Workshops are organized to inv ite internationally renowned researchers in the fields of population and social security. These seminars and workshops are held in the IPSS conference room and are open to the public. From FY2017 to FY2019, special lectures were held on the European system of integrated social protection statistics, population projections, family policies, and poverty measurements. International workshops with East Asian countries were also conducted. Promoting International Research Cooperation We are engaged in cooperative research based on a memorandum of understanding with the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs (KIHASA), the French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), the Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, and the Research Institute of Labor and Social Protection, Mongolia, while we promote information exchanges and joint research with international organizations such as the OECD, the World Bank, and the United Nations Population Fund (UNPFA), along with universities and research institutes in their respective countries. We also participate in international scientific conferences on population and social security, and issue reports. Receiving Visitors from Overseas We receive delegations and study tour groups from around the world and outline the current situation of population and social security in Japan for them. During FY2017-FY2019, we received visitors from the Project on Strengthening the Capacity for Social Insurance Operation in Mongolia and the Institute of Japanese Studies, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as well as visits from countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, the USA, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, and others. Collaborating through International Organizations on Population and Social Insurance Issues We are engaged in ongoing cooperation about issues on a global scale such as population problems and the building of an international social security system through the Commission on Population and Development held at the UN headquarters, and participation in various meetings held at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). We are also offering expertise and data on population and social security in Japan through participation in expert meetings held by the OECD. 14
Seminars 24th Annual Seminar (January 30, 2020) Issues and Future Directions of Regional Policies in the Era of Depopulation January 30, 2020 Hibiya Convention Hall Shiro Koike (Senior Researcher, Department of Population Structure Research, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research) 入場 無料 Hiroshi Matsubara (Professor, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences) Chikako Igarashi (Director, Hokkaido Intellect Tank) Yohei Maruyama (Associate professor, School of Design, Sapporo 第24回厚生政策セミナー / The 24 th IPSS Annual Seminar City University) Hirokazu Hasegawa (GIS Center, Policy Department, Niigata City) Fumihiko Seta (Associate professor, Department of Urban ⼈⼝減少時代における Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Tokyo) 地域政策の諸課題と Toru Suzuki (Deputy Director-General, National Institute of 今後の⽅向性 Issues and Future Directions of Regional Policies Population and Social Security Research) in the Era of Depopulation 1 月30 日 2020年 13:00~16:30 定 員 日 時 200名 木(開場12:30) 事前申し込み (先着順) 会 場 日比谷コンベンションホール 〒100-0012 東京都千代田区日比谷公園1番4号 講 師 (国立社会保障・人口問題研究所 人口構造研究部 部長) (一般社団法人北海道総合研究調査会 理事長) (新潟市都市政策部GISセンター) 小 池 司 朗 五十嵐 智嘉子 長谷川 普 一 (東京大学大学院総合文化研究科 教授) (札幌市立大学デザイン学部 准教授) (東京大学工学部都市工学科 准教授) 松 原 宏 丸 山 洋 平 瀬 田 史 彦 モデレーター (国立社会保障・人口問題研究所 副所長) 鈴 木 透 JR 線 新橋駅 日比谷口より 徒歩約10分 丸の内線・日比谷線「霞ヶ関駅」B2出口より徒歩約3分 アクセス 東 京メトロ 千代田線「霞ヶ関駅」C4出口より徒歩約3分 都営地下鉄 三田線「内幸町駅」A7出口より徒歩約3分 主 催: [お申込み・お問い合せ先] 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所総務課業務係 TEL:03-3595-2984 E-mail:ipss24seminar@ipss.go.jp 社人研 厚生政策セミナー http://www.ipss.go.jp/seminar/j/seminar24/index.html 23rd IPSS Annual Seminar 22nd IPSS Annual Seminar 21st IPSS Annual Seminar (February 5, 2019) (February 1, 2018) (December 1, 2016) “Regional Care Meeting” for the International Symposium on Visions for the Future Japanese Society Future of Medical Care and Long-term Longevity - Through Comparison and Social Security System - Social Care - Strengthen Facilitation Ability between France and Japan, the Two Security System for a Sustainable Society to Connect System and Field Top Runners of Longevity in the Era of Population Decline - 主 催: 入場 無料 第23回厚生政策セミナー / The 23 rd IPSS Annual Seminar 医 療・介 護 の未 来を担う 地 域ケア会 議 ~制度と現場を繋ぐファシリテーション能力の強化~ “Regional Care Meeting” for the Future of Medical Care and Long-term Care ~ Strengthen facilitation ability to connect system and field ~ 2 月5日 2019年 13:00~16:20 講 師 (公立大学法人埼玉県立大学大学院保健医療福祉学研究科 兼 研究開発センター 教授) 日 時 川越 雅弘 火(開場12:30) (朝来市地域包括支援センター 主任介護支援専門員) 足立 里江 会 場 日比谷コンベンションホール (函館市保健福祉部地域包括ケア推進課 保健師) 古口 奈津子 〒100-0012 東京都千代田区日比谷公園1番4号 (豊明市健康福祉部健康長寿課 課長補佐) 松本 小牧 定 員 200名 事前申し込み(先着順) (国立社会保障・人口問題研究所 社会保障基礎理論研究部 部長) 山本 克也 JR 線 新橋駅 日比谷口より 徒歩約10分 アクセス モデレーター 丸の内線・日比谷線「霞ヶ関駅」B2出口より徒歩約3分 東 京メトロ (国立社会保障・人口問題研究所 政策研究調整官) 千代田線「霞ヶ関駅」C4出口より徒歩約3分 都営地下鉄 三田線「内幸町駅」A7出口より徒歩約3分 藤原 禎一 [お申込み・お問い合せ先] 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所総務課業務係 TEL:03-3595-2984 E-mail:ipss23seminar@ipss.go.jp 社人研 厚生政策セミナー http://www.ipss.go.jp/seminar/j/seminar23/index.html 15
Publication, Database Periodicals 社会保障研究 ■ Journal of Social Security Research ISSN 0387-3064 人口問題研究資料第342号 ISSN 1347-5428 社 会 保 障 研 究 2020年1月31日 Population Research Series, No.342 JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SECURITY RESEARCH (SYAKAI HOSYO KENKYU) January 31, 2020 (SHAKAI HOSHO KENKYU) Vol.4 No.1 2019 Publishes papers on social security Foreword Divorce/Bereavement and Social Security …………………………… Yoshimi KIKUCHI 002 Special Issue: Divorce/Bereavement and Social Security Divorce and Bereavement with Spouse and the Actual Conditions of Children’s Lives …………………………………………………………………… LEE kyoung won 004 including social development, welfare Vol.4 No.1, 2019 Living Conditions of Divorced or Widowed Elderly Women 離死別と社会保障 ………………………………………………………………Chizuka HAMAMOTO 020 人口統計資料集 ������������������� 菊池 馨実 On Determination of Property Transfer and Duty to Support while Divorced or Bereaved ……………………………………………………………… Miyoko MOTOZAWA 033 特集:離死別と社会保障 state themes and social security of other An Adult Child's Obligation to Support Parents and Social Security: Focusing on Public Assistance ……………………………………… Sayaka DAKE 048 Some Problems in Child Maintenance after Divorce 配偶者との離死別と子どもの生活状況 LATEST DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS and the One-Parent Family Payment in Ireland ……………… Yukihiro MASUDA 062 Current Status and Issues of Child Support System in Japan �������������������� 李 璟媛 ―In Comparison with Child Support System in New Zealand― 配偶者との離死別と高齢者の生活状況 2020 countries (published four times a year). (通巻第十二号) …………………………………………………………………… Aya UMEZAWA 079 �������������������� 濱本知寿香 Social Security and Law Issues of Disability Pension System ……………………………………… Motoo FUKUDA 092 夫婦の離死別による財産移転と扶養義務 Disability Pension for People Working with Mild Intellectual Disability … Motoo FUKUDA 097 �������������������� 本澤巳代子 Articles 子の親に対する扶養義務と社会保障 Analyzing Long-Term Care Insurance Improvements to Interregional Economic Disparity ―生活保護を中心に― ……………………………………… Ryoji HASEGAWA and Masaya YASUOKA 104 �������������������� 嵩 さやか ■ Journal of Population Problems (JINKO Report and Statistics “Unterhaltsvorschuss” in Germany …………………………………… Toshihide IKOMA 119 アイルランドにおける離婚後の養育費と社会保障給付 A Study on the Creation of the Publicly Funded Healthcare System for Liver Cancer and ―法制度の特徴と制度改革の提言― Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis …………………………………… Toshiki ONO 128 �������������������� 増田 幸弘 International Research Cooperation with The Center of Policy Research(CPR), Ministry of Civil 日本における養育費履行システムとその可能性 MONDAI KENKYU) Affairs, China ………………………………………………… Katsuhisa KOJIMA 137 ―ニュージーランドにおける養育費制度を参考に― Housing Policy and Measures for Empty Houses in Germany �������������������� 梅澤 彩 ………………………………………………………………………Chikako MORI 139 “Marriage, Divorce and Remarriage in Japan: Trends, Causes and Social Implications” 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所 (2013 ~ 2017) …………………………………………………… Miho IWASAWA 142 Publishes articles on population, births, 第4巻 Research on Poverty in Japan ……………………………………… Kuriko WATANABE 146 Book Review How to Live the "Third Age": Creating Advanced Aging Society together with Senior Citizens ………………………………………………………………………… Tami SAITO 148 第1号 The Challenges of Aging Age of Employment and Retirement ………………… Itaru SATO 152 2019 年 deaths, migrations and households, and 国立社会保障・人口問題研究所 Edited by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Tokyo, Japan (KOKURITSU SHAKAI HOSHO・JINKO MONDAI KENKYUSHO) related statistical materials (published four times a year). 表紙(目次)Vol.4-No.1_2k.indd すべてのページ 2019/06/19 10:19:28 ■ Population Statistics (JINKO TOKEI SHIRYOSYU) Reports a selection of fundamental statistics for a contribution to research on population related issues by showing the current state and development trends (published annually). Reports, Research Series & Survey Series The results of research projects are published as a series and widely distributed. ■ Population Trends and the Future of the Japanese Society (April 2017) ■ Livelihood Support in Local Communities (February 2018) ■ Roles and Issues of Child Guidance Centers in Japan (March 2020) ■ Detailed reports on the surveys and estimates are published and available to download on our website. Library There are many statistical publications, especially on demographics and social policy, in the collection. Opening hours: 10:00 to 12:00 13:00 to 17:00, Weekdays only Reference service: TEL: +81(0)3-3595-2988 FAX: +81(0)3-3591-4818 Loans: The Institute’s publications only. Loaning is possible upon verification of personal identification and registration. Over 130,000 book and magazine titles are available for researchers as well as for the general public and government administrators. Interested parties can also access all information on our website through our library search at the following link: www.ipss.go.jp/tosho/tosho-lx.html. Valuable historical documents have also been compiled, and are available for public use. 16
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