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Public opinion on the killing of Trayvon
Martin: A test of the racial gradient
thesis
a b
Shaun L. Gabbidon & Kareem L. Jordan
a
School of Public Affairs, Penn State Harrisburg , Middletown ,
PA , USA
b
Department of Criminal Justice , University of Central Florida ,
Orlando , FL , USA
Published online: 22 May 2013.
To cite this article: Shaun L. Gabbidon & Kareem L. Jordan (2013): Public opinion on the
killing of Trayvon Martin: A test of the racial gradient thesis, Journal of Crime and Justice,
DOI:10.1080/0735648X.2013.798242
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0735648X.2013.798242
Public opinion on the killing of Trayvon Martin: A test of the racial
gradient thesis
Shaun L. Gabbidona* and Kareem L. Jordanb
a
School of Public Affairs, Penn State Harrisburg, Middletown, PA, USA; bDepartment of Criminal
Justice, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA
(Received 10 February 2013; final version received 18 April 2013)
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The purpose of this study was to examine the role of race in explaining perceived
criminal injustice through an examination of the Trayvon Martin shooting. The study
was grounded in the racial gradient thesis. We utilized the 2012 USA Today/Gallup Poll
data of a nationally representative sample of more than 2000 respondents. The sample
included African-Americans, Hispanics, and Whites. African-Americans were the
racial group most likely to believe that criminal injustice surrounded the Trayvon
Martin shooting. Hispanics generally perceived more criminal injustice than Whites
regarding the shooting, though this difference was not always statistically significant.
Past mistreatment of minorities likely explained much of the differences in perceptions.
Keywords: Trayvon Martin killing; race and public opinion; racial gradient thesis
In late February, 2012, 17-year-old Trayvon Martin went to the store to buy a package of
Skittles candy and an iced tea. On his way home, he was killed by George Zimmerman, a
member of a civilian neighborhood patrol in a townhouse community in Sanford, Florida. The
killing sparked countless protests and marches over what has been perceived by some as yet
another racist killing of an unarmed Black youth. While the complete details of the incident
still remain unclear, and Zimmerman has not had his day in court, this paper examines the
results of an analysis of an early national public opinion poll that shed some light on the
incident, as well as more general sentiments on race and the criminal justice system.
This study provided a unique opportunity to examine whether one of the core
foundations of the comparative conflict theory – the racial gradient thesis or the notion that
public opinion on criminal injustice will follow an intensity level adhering to a Black/
Hispanic/White gradient (Hagan et al. 2005). Specifically, this study advances the public
opinion research on race and criminal injustice in three distinct ways. First, the study
represents the first test of the theory that considers whether one of the core tenets of
comparative conflict theory – the racial gradient thesis – is supported even when the
perpetrator of a perceived criminal injustice is an informal agent of social control
(community watch member). Second, conducted in the years following the election of
President Barack Obama, there is the potential to determine whether national public opinion
on a controversial high-profile killing of a young black male under questionable
circumstances in 2012 produces different results than those prior to the 2008 election (see
Unnever et al. 2011). In short, if the United States has been truly transformed into a post-
*Corresponding author. Email: slg13@psu.edu
q 2013 Midwestern Criminal Justice Association2 S. Gabbidon and K. L. Jordan
racial society, the killing of Martin should not evoke any different emotions among racial/
ethnic groups. Finally, in contrast to past research studies that have tested comparative
conflict theory and relied on relatively dated and non-national datasets, this study made use
of a public opinion poll that is both recent and national in scope. The paper begins with a
presentation of the existing facts on the Martin shootings. This is followed by a review of the
existing public opinion research related to bias in the criminal justice system. The next
section of the paper is devoted to outlining the scope of the current study.
The Trayvon Martin incident
The Trayvon Martin incident began with 17-year-old Martin returning from a trip to a 7 –
11 convenience store to purchase a package of Skittles candy and a drink. During the trip
home, Martin traveled through a housing development in Sanford, Florida, where
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Zimmerman, a member of the community watch program, was on-duty. The evidence
reveals that Martin’s presence in the community sparked a level of unease within
Zimmerman, resulting in his calling 911 to report ‘a real suspicious guy.’ Zimmerman
asserted that Martin ‘looks like he’s up to no good or he’s on drugs or something.’ During
the same 911 call, Zimmerman reported to the dispatcher that Martin was a Black male
with ‘something’ in his hand. Zimmerman then added: ‘These assholes, they always get
away.’ The statement led some observers to conclude that Zimmerman was making
reference to all Blacks. The comment was likely part of the impetus used by some
commentators to portray Zimmerman as a racist.1
According to accounts that surfaced after the killing, much of what happened next remains
in dispute. It is known that Zimmerman was advised not to pursue Martin and to wait until the
police arrived. Ignoring the dispatcher, Zimmerman followed Martin and a physical
confrontation ensued between the two. Several nearby residents called 911, reporting that they
heard screams, followed by a single shot. The fatal shot from Zimmerman’s 9 mm pistol
‘entered Martin’s body on the left side of his chest and struck his heart and one of his lungs . . . ’
(Horowitz and McCrummen 2012, p. 2). When the police arrived, Zimmerman informed
them that he had killed Martin in self-defense. He was not charged at the scene. This perceived
inaction by the police also resulted in additional cries of racism.
Further controversy soon erupted when discussion of the law that appeared to have
been invoked by Zimmerman to kill Martin began to surface. In particular, Chapter 776 of
Florida’s 2011 Statutes includes a section on the Justifiable Use of Force (see http://www.
flsenate.gov/Laws/Statutes/2011/Chapter776/All), which includes what has been referred
to as the ‘Stand Your Ground Law.’ ‘Stand Your Ground’ specifically allows for the use of
deadly force in instances where a person feels his or her life is in danger. In addition, the
law includes provisions whereby citizens do not have a duty to retreat in instances when:
‘He or she reasonably believes that such force is necessary to prevent imminent death or
great bodily harm to himself or herself or another or to prevent the imminent commission
of a forcible felony.’ One key aspect of the law is that it provides immunity from criminal
prosecution or civil action. In particular, the law allows police agencies to investigate use
of force but they ‘may not arrest the person for using force unless it determines that there is
probable cause that the force that was used was unlawful.’ The law allows for those
citizens who were unlawfully arrested in use of force cases to be awarded ‘reasonable
attorney’s fees, court costs, compensation for loss of income, and all expenses incurred by
the defendant in defense of any civil action brought by the plaintiff . . . .’ This latter section
of the law was one reason stated as to why Zimmerman was not arrested in the wake of the
incident. Considering the racial dynamics of the case, it quickly became a national story.Journal of Crime and Justice 3
The emerging story led to unflattering portraits of both Martin and Zimmerman. It was
revealed that Martin was spending time at his father’s apartment because he had been
suspended from his Miami-area high school after being found in possession of marijuana.
The autopsy report confirmed that there were traces of THC (a substance found in
marijuana) in Martin’s blood (Horowitz and McCrummen 2012, p. 2). It has been
repeatedly reported that Zimmerman had called the police 46 times from the beginning of
2012 to the date of the incident (February 26, 2012), and was thought by some to be
overzealous with his duties. Another story suggested that while Zimmerman was on
community patrol he engaged in racial profiling by paying extra attention to Black males
(Gray 2012). Reports also surfaced that Zimmerman ‘had once been arrested for battery of
a police officer as he interfered with a friend being arrested’ (Gray 2012, p. 1).
Interestingly, there were also positive depictions of Martin as a good kid in general, while
Zimmerman was, at times, portrayed as a devoted and effective member of the community
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watch. It is within this milieu that outsiders had to determine their views on the case. These
conflicting accounts of the event, and of Martin and Zimmerman, left the public with little
clear evidence with which to form an opinion of what actually happened the night of
February 26, 2012, at the Twin Lakes Townhome community in Sanford, Florida.
Nonetheless, community members and pundits alike formed their opinions on the few
facts that were available and possibly from their recollection of similar situations.
The next section of the paper provides a brief overview of comparative conflict theory.
This relatively new theory is used as the foundation to help determine what might be
anticipated from a national public opinion poll on the Martin killing. After discussing the
theoretical framework, a review of the existing body of public opinion scholarship on
racial injustice in the American criminal justice system follows.
Theoretical framework
Conflict theory is among the theories that have been used to contextualize racial/ethnic
differences in public opinion. Conflict theories include several key concepts including
individual or group conflicts and power struggles. But the earliest formulations of the
theory focused on class conflicts and not race conflicts (Hawkins 1987, Gabbidon 2010).
Blalock (1967) posited that the treatment of minorities can best be gauged by the threat
they posed to the majority population. In his group conflict theory, Blalock (1967)
measured these threats in relation to competition (primarily in relation to jobs), power
(economics), and the percentage of minorities in the population. Depending on the
perceived threat in relation to these three indicators, there would be increasing levels of
discrimination – often supported by the justice system – directed at minority groups
(Blalock 1967). Other well-known scholars have also offered important ideas tied to race
prejudice and conflict perspectives of relevance to criminology (Blumer 1958, Turk 1969,
Quinney 1970, Chambliss and Seidman 1971), but the more recent research specifically
addresses public perceptions on racial injustice and offers suppositions to explain
differences by race/ethnicity (Weitzer and Tuch 2004, Hagan et al. 2005).
During the 2000s a series of works provided the theoretical foundation for
understanding racial differences in public opinion on crime and justice. Weitzer and Tuch
(2004) utilized the group-position thesis as the theoretical basis for their national research
on public perceptions of police misconduct. The next year, John Hagan, Carla Shedd, and
Monique Payne presented the comparative conflict theory, as a modified form of conflict
theory specifically to provide context for the racial divide in public opinion on the justice
system (see Hagan et al. 2005; see also Shedd and Hagan 2006). In the most basic sense,4 S. Gabbidon and K. L. Jordan
the racial divide refers to the significant difference in views by racial/ethnic groups on
topics related to crime and justice. In most polls, this divide has traditionally translated
into a 20% or more difference in opinions related to the justice system and offending,
especially as they pertain to race-related concerns (Hurwitz and Peffley 2005, Peffley and
Hurwitz 2010, Unnever and Gabbidon 2011).
Studies published in recent years have largely continued to explore perceptions of
injustice and the racial divide as it relates to police practices (for examples, see Weitzer
and Tuch 2002, 2006, Stewart et al. 2009, Wu et al. 2009, Hurwitz and Peffley 2010,
Warren 2010, Renauer and Covelli 2011), the war on drugs (Bobo and Johnson 2004), and
the over representation of Blacks in American corrections (Unnever 2008).
Yet other researchers have produced studies both confirming and also seeking to
explain the racial divide (Cochran and Chamlin 2006, Johnson 2008). Some of this
research has pointed to White racism (Unnever and Cullen 2007, Unnever et al. 2011), as
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well as perceived race relations (Higgins et al. 2010), as partial explanations for the racial
divide in public opinion.
Weitzer and Tuch (2004) were among the earliest scholars to examine the notion that
there might be a ‘racial-hierarchy’ in the perceptions of Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics.
Hagan et al.’s (2005) comparative conflict theory includes nuances that provide context
for a general understanding of public opinion on criminal injustice. In particular, Hagan
et al. (2005) propose that the key to understanding differences between racial/ethnic
groups is their encounters with the police. Such encounters include those that are
personally experienced or vicariously through a friend or family member. The theory also
posits that since African Americans are likely to have the most negative experiences with
the justice system, they are also the group most likely to have intensive negative feelings
towards the justice system – the police in particular. In other words, the racial status of
African Americans is more pronounced than that of the ethnic status of Latinos (p. 384).
This will produce a racial gradient or racial hierarchy of opinions (as referred to by
Weitzer and Tuch) whereby African Americans will have the strongest sense of criminal
injustice, followed by Hispanics, and then Whites. Hagan et al. (2005) also propose that
African American and Latino perceptions of criminal injustice will converge when Latinos
encounter criminal injustice on a scale similar to that of African Americans.
Community integration is also a core concept of comparative conflict theory. The
formulators of the theory argue that integration has had a notable effect on African
Americans. In particular, integration has allowed African Americans and Whites to have
more intimate contact and as a result has possibly made African Americans hyper-
sensitive to incidents of bias. In turn, the authors argue that this is likely a contributor to
their more intense feelings of criminal injustice. Similarly, drawing on earlier scholarship,
the authors opine that ‘ . . . African Americans in integrated (or mostly white) settings may
have more occasions to observe racial bias . . . this can place middle and upper-class blacks
in a heightened state of sensitivity of differential treatment’ (Hagan et al. 2005, p. 385).
While Hagan et al.’s (2005) original study was largely supportive of tenets of the theory,
additional scholars have tested some suppositions based on comparative conflict theory
with mixed results. In large part, the existing public opinion scholarship has supported the
racial gradient/racial hierarchy thesis (Hagan et al. 2005, Weitzer and Tuch 2006, Buckler
and Unnever 2008, Buckler et al. 2008, Higgins et al. 2010), while the differential
sensitivity, or the premise that Hispanics who have negative encounters with the police
will have similar levels of perceived criminal injustice as African Americans, has not been
supported (Buckler and Unnever 2008, Buckler et al. 2008).Journal of Crime and Justice 5
Current study
This study took advantage of the controversial Trayvon Martin killing as a case study to
explore the nuances of public perceptions of criminal injustice involving a high-profile
killing – immediately after the event. This allowed us to capture the public sentiment
surrounding the event, which can sometimes dissipate weeks, months, or even years later.
In addition, the person involved in the shooting was not a police officer; however, he was
acting in a crime prevention role as a participant in a crime watch. Hence, we wondered
whether the racial gradient thesis would apply in this situation.
On the whole, our principal focus was to determine, first of all, whether there was a racial/
ethnic divide in the opinions surrounding the case. Past research led us to believe that there
would be such a divide. Nonetheless, because of the racial dynamics of the case, we used
multivariate techniques to empirically investigate whether Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites had
differing views on the case. Moreover, we followed comparative conflict theory and
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anticipated that there would be a racial gradient in views. In particular, we anticipated that
Blacks would have more intense feelings than Hispanics, who would have more intense
feelings than Whites that the killing was racially motivated. In other words, despite
Zimmerman’s ethnic background and his unofficial capacity as a crime watch member, we
anticipated that the racial gradient thesis would hold true across all questions pertaining to the
role of the race of the victim in the killing largely because of the history of racial subordination
and discrimination that African American and Latinos have experienced in the United States.
We were also able to add a novel twist to the perceptions of criminal injustice
literature. In particular, this study asked how closely the respondents followed the Martin
case in the media. This allowed us to consider whether public opinion on race and criminal
injustice is indirectly influenced through selective exposure to media coverage of a high-
profile killing believed to be a product of racial discrimination. As with the other areas of
investigation, and following the racial gradient thesis, we anticipate that Blacks and
Hispanics will be more likely than Whites to closely follow the case in the media.2
Methods
The study used USA Today/Gallup Poll data those were collected from April 2– 4, 2012.
The Gallup Organization conducted a national random sample of Americans, allowing the
sample to be representative of the general population. The phone survey included both a
random sample of landlines and cell phones. The data are restricted to African Americans,
Hispanics, and Whites, given that only a small percentage of the sample comprised
multiple other races/ethnicities (6.5% or n ¼ 196). Therefore, the final weighted sample
size is 2810, including 237 African Americans, 239 Hispanics, and 2334 Whites. The
margin of error for the total sample was ^ 2%.
Missing values were also a concern for this dataset. The missing data ranged from
0.2% to 16.3% across multiple variables. Multiple imputation was employed to address
this issue. Multiple imputation has been used in criminal justice research, with some
studies suggesting it can be used effectively with missing data upwards of 80% with small
sample sizes (Schafer and Graham 2002, Fox and Swatt 2009, Jordan and Freiburger
2010). Table 1 presents the descriptive data for the entire sample.
Dependent variables
There were three dependent variables. The first, ‘How much of a factor did racial bias play in
the events that led up to the shooting and the shooting itself,’ focused on whether respondents6 S. Gabbidon and K. L. Jordan
Table 1. Descriptive statistics for all variables.
Variables N %
Independent/control variables
Race/ethnicity
African American 237 8.4%
Hispanic 239 8.5%
White 2334 83.1%
Age
18 – 29 362 12.9%
30 – 49 733 26.1%
50 – 64 829 29.5%
65 þ 886 31.5%
Gender
Males 1373 48.9%
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Females 1437 51.1%
Marriage (married ¼ 1) 1548 55.1%
Education
High school or less 741 26.4%
Some college 871 31.0%
College graduate 632 22.5%
Post-graduate 566 20.1%
Children under 18 (yes ¼ 1) 785 27.9%
Monthly Income
Less than $2000 551 19.6%
$2000– $4999 1060 37.7%
$5000– $7499 610 21.7%
$7500 þ 589 21.0%
Employment
Full-time 373 13.3%
Part-time 1278 45.5%
Unemployed 1159 41.2%
Church attendance
Never 544 19.4%
Seldom 702 25.0%
About once month 273 9.7%
Almost every week 254 9.0%
At least once per week 1037 36.9%
Ideology
Very conservative 277 9.8%
Conservative 930 33.1%
Moderate 980 34.9%
Liberal 469 16.7%
Very liberal 154 5.5%
Region
South 1014 36.1%
Non-south 1796 63.9%
Dependent variables
Race a factor in the shooting (yes ¼ 1) 1989 70.8%
Zimmerman arrested if he shot a White person (yes ¼ 1) 1210 43.1%
How closely following shooting
Not at all 331 11.8%
Not too closely 626 22.3%
Somewhat closely 1205 42.9%
Very closely 648 23.0%Journal of Crime and Justice 7
believe that race was a factor in the Trayvon Martin shooting. Those respondents who
believe that race was a factor in the shooting were coded as 1; those who do not believe that
race was a factor in the shooting were coded as 0. The second dependent variable, ‘Would
Zimmerman have been arrested if the person he shot was White, or do you think Martin’s
race did not make a difference,’ focused on whether respondents believe that George
Zimmerman would have been arrested had he shot someone who was White. Although
George Zimmerman was eventually arrested, this poll was conducted approximately one
week prior to his arrest. However, the dependent variable is still salient because it focuses on
respondents’ perceptions of whether an arrest would have occurred between the date of the
shooting (February 26, 2012) and the date of the Gallup Poll (April 2–4, 2012). If
respondents believe Zimmerman would have been arrested if he had shot a White person,
they were coded as 1; those who think Zimmerman would not have been arrested if he had
shot a White person were coded as 0. The final dependent variable measured how closely
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respondents followed the Trayvon Martin shooting. The variable was measured at the ordinal
level: not at all, not very closely, somewhat closely, and very closely.
Independent/control variables
The main independent variable was race/ethnicity. There were three race/ethnicity
variables, and each one was dummy-coded in the analyses: African Americans, Hispanics,
and Whites, with Whites serving as the reference category. Multiple control variables/
covariates were also included in the multivariate analyses. The control variables used have
been shown in prior research to influence public opinion on race and criminal justice, and
include: age, gender, marital status, education, juveniles in the household, income,
employment status, church attendance, and political ideology (Weitzer and Tuch 2006,
Peffley and Hurwitz 2010). Finally, we controlled for region of the country.
Coding procedure
Age was measured in categories: 18 – 29, 30 –49, 50– 64, and 65 and over. Gender was
measured dichotomously: males ¼ 1, females ¼ 0. We also controlled for marriage;
married respondents were coded as 1, non-married as 0. Education was measured in
categories of high school or less, some college, college graduate, and post-graduate.
We also included a measure of whether respondents currently have children under
18 living in the home. If respondents reported having children under 18 in the home, they
were coded as 1; those not having children under 18 in the home as 0. Monthly income was
measured on a scale: less than $2000, $2000 – $4999, $5000– $7499, and $7500 and over.
In addition, we measured for respondents’ employment. We included three dummy-coded
variables for employment: full-time, part-time, and unemployed, with unemployed used as
the reference category. We also measured church attendance on a scale: never, seldom,
about once a month, almost once a week, and at least once a week. Ideology was measured
on a 5-point scale from very conservative to very liberal, with higher scores representing
more liberalism. Finally, as mentioned, the variable relating to how closely respondents
followed the case was measured on a 4-point ordinal scale. Given the cross-sectional
nature of this study and not being able to establish temporal ordering (Bachman and Schutt
2014), this control variable was used as a covariate with the first two dependent variables
and as its own dependent variable. Finally, we controlled for whether or not the respondent
lived in the South. Respondents who lived in the South were coded as 1, while those who
did not live in the South was coded as 0.8 S. Gabbidon and K. L. Jordan
Analysis
Due to the first two dependent variables being measured as a dichotomy, multivariate
logistic regression was chosen as the appropriate method of estimation (Menard 2010).
The final dependent variable is ordinal, so ordinal generalized linear modeling (OGLM) is
the most appropriate statistical technique (Williams 2009, 2010). These analyses allowed
us to examine the impact of race/ethnicity on the dependent variables while controlling for
extraneous factors. In testing for multicollinearity, none of the bivariate correlations
exceeded 0.60. Additional tests confirmed that multicollinearity was not a concern, as the
variance inflation factors were less than 2, and the tolerance statistics were greater than .4
(Kutner et al. 2005).
Results
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Table 2 presents the multivariate results of the perception of whether race played a role in
the shooting. Model 1 includes only the race/ethnicity variables. Both Blacks and
Hispanics were more likely than Whites to believe that race was a factor in the Trayvon
Martin shooting. Of the two race/ethnicity variables, the standardized coefficients indicate
that being Black had a stronger impact on the dependent variable than being Hispanic. The
pseudo r-square indicates that the model explained approximately 3% of the ‘variance’ in
the outcome.
Model 2 presents the full model, which controls for extraneous factors. The
significance of being Black (as compared to White) remained. Blacks were more likely
than Whites to believe that race played a role in the shooting. However, the significant
effect of being Hispanic disappeared. There was no significant difference between
Hispanics and Whites on whether they believed race played a role in the shooting. The
model also indicates that males, those who are not married, and those with higher incomes
Table 2. Logistic regression estimates for race being a factor in shooting.
Model 1 Model 2
Odds Stand. SE Odds
Variables B SE Ratio Coeff. B Ratio Coeff. Stand.
Black 1.56** 0.29 4.76 0.26 1.24** .30 3.45 0.20
Hispanic 0.41* 0.18 1.50 0.07 0.34 .20 1.40 0.06
Age 20.09 .07 0.91 0.05
Gender (male ¼ 1) 20.54** .12 0.58 0.13
Married 20.29* .13 0.75 0.07
Education 0.13* .06 1.14 0.07
Children under 18 0.11 .14 1.12 0.03
Income 20.14* .06 0.87 0.07
Full-time employment 0.25 .14 1.28 0.06
Part-time employment 0.45* .19 1.57 0.08
Church attendance 0.06 .04 1.06 0.04
Ideology 0.37** .06 1.44 0.18
Follow shooting 0.37** .06 1.45 0.18
South 20.21 .12 0.81 0.05
2 2 Log likelihood 1643.76 1551.28
Model chi-square 33.07** 142.50**
Pseudo R 2 0.03 0.08
*p , .05; **p , .01.Journal of Crime and Justice 9
Table 3. Logistic regression estimates for George Zimmerman being arrested if he shot a White
person.
Model 3 Model 4
Odds Stand. Odds Stand.
Variables B SE Ratio Coeff. B SE Ratio Coeff.
Black 2.01** 0.79 7.45 0.33 1.66** 0.22 5.24 0.26
Hispanic 0.94* 0.41 2.55 0.17 0.61** 0.18 1.84 0.10
Age 0.08 0.07 1.08 0.04
Gender (male ¼ 1) 2 0.70** 0.11 0.50 0.17
Married 2 0.01 0.12 1.00 0.00
Education 0.02 0.06 1.02 0.01
Children under 18 0.09 0.13 1.10 0.02
Income 2 0.04 0.06 0.96 0.02
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Full-time employment 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.00
Part-time employment 0.06 0.18 1.06 0.01
Church attendance 0.00 0.04 1.00 0.00
Ideology 0.50** 0.06 1.65 0.24
Follow shooting 0.37** 0.06 1.44 0.17
South 2 0.19 0.11 0.82 0.04
22 Log likelihood 704.54 1691.41
Model chi-square 11.28** 221.73**
Pseudo R 2 0.03 0.13
*p , .05; **p , .01.
were less likely to believe that race played a factor in the shooting. However, those who
were more educated, more liberal, and those who followed the shooting closely were more
likely to believe that race was a factor in the shooting. Based on the standardized
coefficients, the Black variable had the strongest impact on the dependent variable. In
addition, by including the control variables, the explanatory power of the model increased
from 3% to 8%.
Table 3 presents the estimates of believing that Zimmerman would be arrested if he
had shot a White person. Again, two models are presented. Model 3 indicates that both
Blacks and Hispanics were more likely than Whites to believe that Zimmerman would
have been arrested if he had shot a White person. Through an examination of the
standardized coefficients, Black played a much stronger role than Hispanic in their effect
on the outcome. The model explained 3% of the ‘variance’ in the dependent variable.
Model 4 includes the race/ethnicity and control variables. After controlling for
extraneous factors, the significant effect of both Black and Hispanic remained. Both racial/
ethnic groups were more likely than Whites to believe that Zimmerman would have been
arrested if he shot a White person. The results also indicate that males were less likely to
believe Zimmerman would have been arrested. In addition, liberals and those who follow
the shooting closely were more likely to believe Zimmerman would have been arrested.
Through examining the standardized coefficients, the Black variable, again, had the
strongest impact on the dependent variable. The addition of the control variables increased
the model’s explanatory power from 3% to 13%.
Table 4 presents the estimates of the influence of race/ethnicity on how closely
respondents are following the Trayvon Martin shooting. Ordinal regression was not
appropriate for this analysis, because the model violated the parallel lines assumption. One
method of addressing this violation is to employ a heterogeneous choice model, which relaxes
that assumption for those factors that do not meet the assumption (Williams 2009, 2010).10 S. Gabbidon and K. L. Jordan
Table 4. Ordinal generalized linear model estimates for how closely following Trayvon Martin
Shooting.
Model 5 Model 6
Stand. Stand.
Variables B SE Coeff. B SE Coeff.
Black 0.30** 0.11 0.42 0.30** 0.10 0.50
Hispanic 2 0.61** 0.16 0.17 20.22* 0.11 0.08
Age 0.27** 0.04 0.33
Gender (male ¼ 1) 0.02 0.06 0.01
Married 20.05 0.07 0.03
Education 20.09** 0.02 0.13
Children under 18 20.01 0.08 0.01
Income 0.14** 0.03 0.17
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Full-time employment 20.14 0.07 0.09
Part-time employment 20.09 0.10 0.03
Church attendance 20.02 0.02 0.05
Ideology 0.14** 0.03 0.18
South 20.06 0.06 0.03
22 Log likelihood 3624.97 3475.18
Model chi-square 58.37** 443.21**
Pseudo R 2 0.02 0.05
Therefore, ordinal generalized linear model was chosen as the appropriate method of
estimation (White 2009, 2010). Using the OGLM command in Stata, two models were
estimated. In examining Model 5, both race/ethnicity variables were significant. Blacks were
more likely than Whites to follow the shooting closely, while Hispanics were less likely than
Whites to follow the shooting. Model 5 explains approximately 2% of the variance in the
dependent variable.
Model 6 presents the full model, which includes the control variables. After
controlling for several extraneous factors, the significant effects of the race/ethnicity
variables remained. Blacks were more likely than Whites to follow the shooting, and
Hispanics were less likely than Whites to follow the shooting. Through examining the
control variables, as education increased, respondents were less likely to follow the case
closely. However, those who were older, had higher income, and more liberal were more
likely to follow the case closely. The standardized coefficients indicate that being Black,
once again, had the strongest impact on the outcome. The control variables included
increased the explanatory power of the model from 2% to 5%.
Discussion
This study used a poll conducted shortly after the Trayvon Martin killing as a way to
examine whether, even in the earliest stages of the case, there was a racial divide in public
opinion. In particular, the study examined whether the racial gradient thesis of
comparative conflict theory held true across three dependent measures tied to the Martin
killing. On the first point, there was clearly a racial/ethnic divide in public opinion on the
case. The research provided some support that African Americans viewed this case
differently than Hispanics and Whites. This is possibly the product of the unique world
view held by some African Americans (Unnever and Gabbidon 2011). Believed to be a
product of centuries of racial injustice at the hands of the criminal justice system and other
social institutions, this worldview contributes to some Blacks being suspicious ofJournal of Crime and Justice 11
situations that involve crime and justice. Thus, whereas other racial/ethnic groups appear
less likely to attribute race to high-profile killings such as Martin’s, as evidenced by this
poll, Blacks immediately viewed the shooting as further evidence of ongoing racial
injustice. In other words, neither Whites nor Hispanics approached the level of agreement
as Blacks did regarding the perceived injustice of the killing.
The second aspect of the study explored the racial gradient thesis. Here, our anticipated
findings were largely confirmed. African Americans expressed the most extreme opinions.
Again, we believe this is likely a product of either past actual or vicarious experiences of
criminal injustices. Hagan and his colleagues have provided an intriguing thesis, but only
the passage of time will reveal whether increasing instances of criminal injustice
experienced by Hispanics will increase their overall sense of perceived criminal injustice.
In present times, the immigration crisis is likely to contribute to some of the perceived
criminal injustice that potentially festers over time and can lead to a decreased sense of
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procedural justice. If this happens, it is likely that, over time, Hispanic perceptions on
killings such as Martin’s will become closer to the views of Blacks.
There was also support for our suggestion that despite Zimmerman’s racial
background as a White-Hispanic, Blacks would in every instance view the incident as a
criminal injustice tied to race. Possibly because of his light skin tone, even before accounts
emerged about Zimmerman’s racial/ethnic background, he was likely perceived as being
White by Black respondents. In a similar vein, there is the possibility that had
Zimmerman’s last name been Hispanic, the results might have been different.3 On the one
hand, this might have left some Blacks with feelings that date back to America’s dark
racial past, or more recent racist crime and justice situations such as Rodney King or
numerous fatal shootings of Blacks by those in authority. On the other hand, Blacks might
have felt this way in any situation that did not involve another Black person. Since they are
often perceived as the most dangerous racial group, Blacks likely have a sense of ‘us
against the world,’ which produces suspicion or a ‘guilty until proven innocent’ complex
in situations such as the Martin killing – regardless of the racial/ethnic background of the
perpetrator.
An additional novelty of our findings was the strong negative perceptions tied to a
situation that involved someone with no formal authority. In this instance, it is possible
that the respondents did not make a distinction between Zimmerman’s unofficial function
as a civilian community watch member, as opposed to a police officer. Thus, although
Zimmerman was acting in an unofficial capacity, the respondents quite possibly looked
beyond that and simply recognized that by the police not arresting him this was simply
another instance of criminal injustice.
The multivariate models also provided additional context for perceptions surrounding
the killing. The first model was devoted to whether race played a role in the shootings. This
model confirmed the bivariate findings with one twist. While Blacks were significantly
more likely than Whites to believe that race played a role, the views of Hispanics and
Whites did not significantly differ. This finding suggests limited support for the racial
gradient thesis when controls are considered. The finding also provides evidence that, in
some instances, the views of Hispanics converge with those of Whites. Whether this is tied
to skin color or other factors remains an important question. These results are not entirely
consistent with past research.
Weitzer (2002) examined the effect of high-profile instances of police brutality on
racial/minorities and in several instances found that Hispanic opinion largely rested
between Black and Whites. In some instances, however, there was a dramatic increase in
negative views towards the police by Hispanics when compared to White perceptions. As12 S. Gabbidon and K. L. Jordan
found here, Black views were most negatively affected by Zimmerman’s actions while on
duty as a community watch member (Weitzer 2002). Besides race/ethnicity, other
variables were significant in this model. Of note were the findings related to gender,
income, and the length of time following the case.
The findings related to gender are possibly the result of mothers having the perception
that young Black males are typically the recipients of criminal injustice. With no clear
answers here, this finding requires additional attention in future polls. The finding that
those with higher levels of income are less likely to see race as playing a role is suggestive
of the fact that elites in society view these instances at face value. In other words, because
they likely see society as a meritocracy (McNamee and Miller 2009), they are less likely to
attribute these situations as a product of race. Finally, the respondents who followed the
case the most intensely were more likely to see race as a factor. This could simply be
the product of those respondents who were captivated by the case being influenced by the
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media coverage that often centered on race.
The second set of multivariate models found that Blacks and Hispanics, net of controls,
were significantly more likely than Whites to believe that Zimmerman would have been
arrested if his victim had been White. Hispanic agreement with Blacks on this question
suggests that while Hispanics didn’t view race as a key factor in the incident in the initial
question, their views became sensitized to the possible role of race when asked a specific
race-related crime and justice question pertaining to the case. This is possibly the product
of their increasing concerns surrounding how the police handle Hispanics in crime and
justice situations (see Rios 2011, Duran 2013). Other control variables were also
significant and merit discussion. First, the more liberal respondents were more likely to
believe that Zimmerman would have been arrested if his victim had been White. This
finding might possibly be tied to past research that suggests that liberals tend to be less
likely than those holding more conservative views to have faith that the justice system will
not unfairly target poor and minority communities (Unnever 2008, Higgins et al. 2010).
Those respondents who reported following the case closely were more likely to believe
that Zimmerman would have been arrested if his victim had been White. This again might
be a product of the sensationalistic news coverage of the case.
Our final models examined whether there was a racial divide in how closely
respondents followed the case. As expected, Blacks followed the case more closely than
Whites and Hispanics. Unexpectedly, however, Hispanics were less likely than Whites to
closely follow the case. Considering Zimmerman’s racial/ethnic background, one would
have expected Hispanics to more closely follow the case. We have no clear indication as to
why this was the case. Quite possibly, Hispanics did not view Zimmerman as being
Hispanic until the media reported his mixed background and at the time of the poll were
uninterested in the case.
It is also important to mention the significance of following such cases closely. In
particular, past research has shown that media coverage can influence perceptions on high-
profile cases (Chiricos and Escholtz 2002, Rome 2004, Russell-Brown 2006). Thus, the
nature of the media coverage can possibly contribute to citizen outrage over incidents such
as the Martin killing. Thus, considering that Blacks, according to our findings, followed
the Martin case more closely than Hispanics and Whites, it is possible that the outrage and
intensity of perceived criminal injustice is heightened when someone is repeatedly
exposed to what is likely viewed as the worst possible outcome of racial discrimination.
There were a few other notable findings from the control variables in the multivariate
models but two warrant some discussion. The finding that respondents with higher
educational levels were less likely to follow the Martin case in the media could be theJournal of Crime and Justice 13
result of them allowing the legal process to run its course before paying close attention to
the outcome of the case. Also, the finding that respondents with liberal political leanings
were more likely to follow the case closely aligns with past research that reveals that
liberals tend to adhere to the due process model that often restricts and monitors the
actions of formal agents of control (Packer 1968, Scheingold 1984, Hagan 2010). It is
possible that these same sentiments extend to a case involving an informal agent of social
control.
Our analysis of the 2012 USA Today/Gallup Poll on the Trayvon Martin killing clearly
provided some useful insights. Unfortunately, there are inherent limitations to using an
existing dataset. First, since the data have already been collected, researchers cannot change
or add any questions. In this poll, it would have been useful to determine how many of the
respondents believe they have been a victim of some kind of police misconduct. Research,
both in the past and more currently, has shown this to be a significant predictor of
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perceptions of criminal injustice (Henderson et al. 1997, Renauer and Covelli 2011). It was
also not possible to ask any follow-up questions. Close-ended questions, for example, are
able to tell us whether the respondent believes a certain way about key aspects of the Martin
killing – but they don’t tell us why he or she believes that way. It would have been beneficial
to have included several openended, or even contingency, questions that would have
elaborated on respondents’ views. In the absence of such responses being available, we are
left to speculate, based on some of the demographics that were significant in the models as
well as relying heavily on past research.
Conclusion
This paper used a recent Gallup poll to examine public opinion surrounding the recent
Trayvon Martin killing. Analysis of the poll data revealed that the ‘racial divide’ in public
opinion is alive and well. Racial/ethnic minorities continue to view such instances from a
different lens than Whites. There was also support for the racial gradient thesis. Specifically,
Blacks continue to feel the greatest sense of criminal injustice, followed by Hispanics and
Whites. But, according to the findings from the multivariate analysis, in certain instances,
the views of Blacks and Hispanics were significantly different from those expressed by
Whites.
It is apparent from the findings of this study that there needs to be additional research on
the topic. In particular, it would have been useful to track the perceptions of the respondents
through the conclusion of the trial. This might have provided some insight into the
fluctuation of public opinion on the topic. As noted earlier, future research should also
include some key openended or contingency questions to get at the heart of the public
opinion on the topic.
Researchers also need to continue to focus on the racial gradient aspect of comparative
conflict theory. But there needs to be more research devoted not only to supporting the
existence of the racial gradient but also as to why it exists and to tracking whether it does
dissipate over time – especially as it relates to the convergence of views of Blacks and
Hispanics. Another potential expansion of the racial gradient thesis is to continue to
investigate whether it can be applied to situations involving both official and unofficial
participants in crime and justice.
In practical terms, policymakers might be able to learn something from the poll results.
The fact that a large number of respondents felt that, based on the facts of the case,
Zimmerman would have been arrested had his victim been White, suggests two possibilities.
First, citizens across the country (especially Blacks) have deep-seated feelings of criminal14 S. Gabbidon and K. L. Jordan
injustice. As noted in our discussion, this likely explains some of the sentiment concerning the
role of race in the criminal justice system. Second, it could also be that citizens across the
country are unaware of the details of the ‘Stand Your Ground Law’; had they been, the public
opinion might have swayed somewhat less on the side of an indictment of the system. It is
possible that the police department that handled the shooting might have been portrayed in a
more favorable light had the department embarked on a well-executed public information
campaign to educate those in and outside of Florida about the nuances of the ‘Stand Your
Ground Law.’ Armed with this information, public sentiment might have shifted and reduced
some of the immediate and continuing controversy surrounding the handling of Zimmerman
by the local police authorities.
Acknowledgements
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The authors thank Helen Sheehy and Glenn S. McGuigan of Penn State University Libraries for
securing the dataset used in this paper.
Notes
1. A detailed report released in July, 2012, by the Florida State Attorney’s office concluded that
Zimmerman was not a racist (see Lee 2012).
2. We thank an anonymous reviewer for providing the insight that led to us including this line of
thought.
3. We thank an anonymous reviewer for posing this supposition.
Notes on contributors
Shaun L. Gabbidon is Distinguished Professor of Criminal Justice at Penn State Harrisburg. He also
serves as the Undergraduate Coordinator for the Criminal Justice Program. Recent articles have
appeared in the Journal of Criminal Justice, Criminal Justice Policy Review, and Journal of
Criminal Justice Education. He is the author or editor of 11 books. His most recent books include:
A Theory of African American Offending (2011; Routledge) and Race and Crime (3 rd edition) (2013:
SAGE).
Kareem L. Jordan is an Associate Professor and Graduate Program Coordinator in the Department
of Criminal Justice at the University of Central Florida. His most recent publications have appeared
in the Journal of Juvenile Justice, Journal of Crime and Justice, and the International Journal of
Police Science and Management. His research and teaching interests include juvenile delinquency,
criminological theory, race and crime, and quantitative data analyses.
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