INVESTOR TELECONFERENCE PRESENTATION - Fourth Quarter 2018 February 4, 2019 - Zone Bourse
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Avalon Dogpatch San Francisco, CA AVA North Point INVESTOR TELECONFERENCE PRESENTATION Cambridge, MA Fourth Quarter 2018 February 4, 2019 1 eaves South Coast Costa Mesa, CA
See Appendix for information about forward-looking statements and definitions of non-GAAP financial measures and other terms. 2
PARTICIPANTS TIM NAUGHTON CHAIRMAN & CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER KEVIN O’SHEA CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER MATT BIRENBAUM CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER SEAN BRESLIN CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER 3
2018 Review REVIEW OF FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR RESULTS 2018 RESULTS Q4 FULL YEAR CORE FFO PER SHARE GROWTH 2.7% 4.4% SAME-STORE RENTAL REVENUE GROWTH | INCLUDING REDEVELOPMENT 2.7% | 2.8% 2.5% | 2.5% DEVELOPMENT COMPLETIONS | WTD. AVG. INITIAL PROJECTED STABILIZED YIELD(1) N/A $ 740M | 6.4% DEVELOPMENT STARTS $ 250M $ 720M CAPITAL RAISED | WTD. AVG. INITIAL COST OF CAPITAL(2) $ 900M | ≈ 5.0% $ 1.7B | ≈ 4.7% Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms and reconciliations, including a reconciliation of Net Income attributable to common stockholders to FFO and to Core FFO. (1) AVA North Point (an unconsolidated joint venture community completed in Q3 2018) is excluded from the full year weighted average initial projected stabilized yield presented. (2) Capital raised and weighted average initial cost of capital includes net proceeds from all debt (inclusive of the effect of interest rate hedges) and equity issuances, wholly-owned dispositions, the New York City Joint Venture at share, and distributions and promotes from unconsolidated real estate entities. 4
2018 Review TOTAL 2018 SAME-STORE REVENUE GROWTH CONSISTENT WITH 2017; BOSTON AND NORTHERN CAL STRENGTHENED, PACIFIC NW SLOWED AVB SAME-STORE RENTAL REVENUE GROWTH YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE 2017 & 2018 6% 5.4% 3.9% 3.6% 3% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.1% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6% - AVALONBAY NEW ENGLAND METRO NY/NJ MID-ATLANTIC PACIFIC NORTHERN SOUTHERN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA 2017 2018 Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms. 5
2018 Review RENT GROWTH ACCELERATED IN THE SECOND HALF OF 2018 AVB SAME-STORE LIKE-TERM EFFECTIVE RENT CHANGE YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE 2017 & 2018 4% 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3% - Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms. Data presented is based on Established Communities for the three months ending December 31, 2018. 6
2018 Review DEVELOPMENT COMPLETIONS DROVE EXTERNAL GROWTH LAST YEAR, ALTHOUGH AT A LESSER RATE THAN IN PRIOR YEAR AVB DEVELOPMENT COMPLETIONS AVB DEVELOPMENT DELIVERIES 2 8% 1,500 3,864 HOMES $ 1.9B NUMBER OF APARTMENT HOMES 6.4% 6.1% $ BILLIONS 1,356 HOMES 1 4% 750 $ 0.7B - - - 2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL CAPITAL COST 2017 2018 WEIGHTED AVERAGE INITIAL PROJECTED STABILIZED YIELD (RIGHT AXIS) Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms. 7
2018 Review ≈ $1.7B IN NEW CAPITAL RAISED PRIMARILY THROUGH DISPOSITIONS AT AN AVERAGE INITIAL COST OF 4.7%, 110 BASIS POINTS > 2017 2017 2018 AVB CAPITAL RAISED & WEIGHTED AVERAGE TOTAL INITIAL COST TOTAL INITIAL COST ESTIMATED INITIAL COST OF CAPITAL(1) $ IN MILLIONS $ IN MILLIONS DEBT(2) $ 1,890 3.1% $ 375 4.0% WHOLLY-OWNED DISPOSITIONS 465 5.3% 610 4.6% EQUITY 105 4.7% 45 5.0% FUND DISTRIBUTIONS AND 95 2.9% 640 5.3% THE NEW YORK CITY JOINT VENTURE AT SHARE TOTAL $ 2,555 3.6% $ 1,670 4.7% Source: Company reports. (1) Capital raised and weighted average initial cost of capital includes net proceeds from all debt (inclusive of the effect of interest rate hedges) and equity issuances, wholly-owned dispositions, the New York City Joint Venture at share, and distributions and promotes from unconsolidated real estate entities. (2) Includes the Company’s pro rata share of secured debt originated in conjunction with the formation of the New York City Joint Venture. 8
2018 Review DISPOSITION ACTIVITY RESULTED IN OUR LOWEST LEVERAGE LEVEL SO FAR THIS CYCLE AVB BALANCE SHEET METRICS Q4 2017 Q4 2018 NET DEBT-TO-CORE EBITDAre 4.9x 4.6x INTEREST COVERAGE 7.0x 6.9x UNENCUMBERED NOI 89% 91% YEARS TO MATURITY OF TOTAL DEBT OUTSTANDING 9.9 9.7 Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms and reconciliations. 9
2018 Review EXCELLING WITH MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERS CUSTOMER SATISFACTION ASSOCIATE ENGAGEMENT #1 O N L I N E REPUTATION Among Public 32 NPS MID-LEASE NET PROMOTER SCORE 4.3 GLASSDOOR R AT I N G Multifamily REITs +5 Points from 2017 Score TOP WORKPLACE 4.5 GOOGLE R AT I N G 5 in DC M ETRO 6,789 Reviews CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY LEADER IN SUSTAINABILITY TOP 100 FTSE4Good Index CORPORATE Based on ESG (environmental, Awarded 4 Stars social & governance) CITIZEN GLOBALLY performance Source: Company reports. 10
2019 Outlook 2019 OUTLOOK SUMMARY 2019 OUTLOOK FULL YEAR PROJECTED CORE FFO PER SHARE RANGE $ 9.05 - $ 9.55 PROJECTED CORE FFO PER SHARE CHANGE AT THE MIDPOINT OF THE OUTLOOK RANGE 3.3% SAME-STORE COMMUNITIES RENTAL REVENUE CHANGE 2.5% - 3.5% OPERATING EXPENSE CHANGE 2.5% - 3.5% NET OPERATING INCOME CHANGE 2.5% - 3.5% DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY (MILLIONS) EXPECTED TOTAL CAPITAL COST FOR DEVELOPMENT STARTS IN 2019 (AT SHARE) $ 850 - $ 1,050 EXPECTED TOTAL CAPITAL COST FOR DEVELOPMENT COMPLETIONS IN 2019(1) $ 640 PROJECTED NOI FROM DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITIES(2) $ 22 - $ 32 Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms and a reconciliation of Projected Net Income attributable to common stockholders to Projected FFO and to Projected Core FFO. (1) Excludes projected Total Capital Cost for 15 West 61st Street of $620 million. (2) Includes Projected NOI of $3.5 to $4.5 related to the retail portion of 15 West 61st Street. 11
2019 Outlook PROJECTED 2019 CORE FFO GROWTH DRIVEN BY STABILIZED PORTFOLIO; NO NET CONTRIBUTION FROM NEW INVESTMENT ACTIVITY… COMPONENTS OF CORE FFO PER SHARE GROWTH 2018 ACTUAL 2019 PROJECTED BASED ON THE MIDPOINT OF OUTLOOK $9.36 $9.66 +$0.57 -$0.23 +$0.33 -$0.34 6.6% (2.7%) 3.7% (3.8%) -$0.12 -$0.01 (1.4%) (0.1%) $8.99 $9.33 $9.00 +$0.38 +$0.32 $9.30 4.4% 3.6% +$0.30 3.3% +$0.16 1.9% $8.62 $9.00 NOI FROM NOI FROM NEW CAPITAL MARKETS OVERHEAD, CORE FFO NOI FROM NOI FROM NEW CAPITAL MARKETS OVERHEAD, CORE FFO SAME-STORE & INVESTMENT ACTIVITY JV INCOME & PER SHARE SAME-STORE & INVESTMENT ACTIVITY JV INCOME & PER SHARE REDEVELOPMENT (incl. Dev.) (incl. Acq. & Disp.) MGMT FEES (GROWTH) REDEVELOPMENT (incl. Dev.) (incl. Acq. & Disp.) MGMT FEES (GROWTH) Source: Company reports. %s represent the contribution to actual and projected Core FFO per share growth. 12
2019 Outlook …DUE TO A LOWER VOLUME OF DEVELOPMENT COMPLETIONS… DEVELOPMENT COMPLETION VOLUME & WEIGHTED AVERAGE INITIAL STABILIZED YIELD 2.50 12% AVERAGE VOLUME ≈ $ 1.2B AVERAGE VOLUME ≈ $ 0.7B $ 1.9B $ BILLIONS 7.1% 6.7% 6.7% 6.4% 1.25 6.1% 6% $ 1.3B $ 1.1B $ 0.7B $ 0.6B $ 0.5B - - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PROJECTED(1) TOTAL CAPITAL COST WEIGHTED AVERAGE INITIAL STABILIZED YIELD (RIGHT AXIS) Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms. (1) Excludes projected Total Capital Cost for 15 West 61st Street of $620 million. 13
2019 Outlook ….HIGHER COSTS ON FLOATING RATE DEBT… VARIABLE RATE DEBT OUTSTANDING & VARIABLE RATE DEBT INTEREST RATE 2 6% AVERAGE VARIABLE RATE AVERAGE VARIABLE RATE DEBT OUTSTANDING ≈ $ 1.3B DEBT OUTSTANDING ≈ $ 1.3B $ 1.3B $ 1.4B $ 1.4B $ BILLIONS $ 1.3B $ 1.2B 3.2% $ 1.1B 1 3% 2.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% - - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PROJECTED VARIABLE RATE DEBT OUTSTANDING (QUARTERLY AVERAGE) WEIGHTED AVERAGE INTEREST RATE (RIGHT AXIS) Source: Company reports. 14
2019 Outlook ….AND INCREASED FUNDING COSTS OF RECENTLY ISSUED DEBT AND ASSET SALES CAPITAL RAISED & WEIGHTED AVERAGE INITIAL COST(1) 4 8% AVERAGE AVERAGE CAPITAL RAISED ≈ $ 1.8B CAPITAL RAISED ≈ $ 1.3B $ BILLIONS 4.7% 4.3% 2 4.0% 4% 3.7% 3.6% - - 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 DEBT PROJECTED COMMON EQUITY WHOLLY-OWNED DISPOSITIONS, JOINT VENTURE ACTIVITY AND FUND DISTRIBUTIONS Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms. WEIGHTED AVERAGE INITIAL COST (RIGHT AXIS) (1) Capital raised and weighted average initial cost of capital includes net proceeds from all debt (inclusive of the effect of interest rate hedges) and equity issuances, wholly-owned dispositions, the New York City Joint Venture at share, and distributions and promotes from unconsolidated real estate entities. 15
Economic Outlook ECONOMIC GROWTH EXPECTED TO MODERATE IN 2019 2018 2019 COMMENTARY GDP After a strong 2018 boosted by tax reform, the consensus outlook is for GDP growth to decelerate to 2.5% in 2019. INDUSTRY PROFITS Corporate profit growth is expected to slow. HIRING 2018 was a rebound year for job growth. Labor tightness and Fed policy are expected to push job growth below 2 million in 2019. INVESTMENT Investment was strong in 2018, but confidence is starting to erode and costs are rising. TRADE Tariffs and slower global growth may dampen trade. DEBT Non-financial corporate debt is at an all-time high, though balance sheets have not been overly pressured yet. CONSUMER INCOME The very tight market for labor should keep wages rising. SPENDING Higher wages and confidence are leading to stronger consumer spending. WEALTH Stocks are volatile, while homes prices continue to rise albeit at a moderating rate of growth. DEBT Banks are wide open for business, but household borrowing remains conservative; late cycle concerns may tighten standards. GOVERNMENT FEDERAL SPENDING Deficit spending and procurement are set to rise sharply. However, government dysfunction and gridlock persist. MONETARY POLICY The FOMC is starting to sound more dovish but absent sagging economic growth, rates are more likely to rise than fall. STATE & LOCAL State and local payroll growth has flattened. Changes to the federal tax code may now pressure local spending in high tax areas. Source: National Association for Business Economics, AVB Market Research Group. 16
Economy & Labor Market THE ECONOMY AND LABOR MARKET ARE WELL POSITIONED AS WE START THE YEAR 1 GDP GROWTH REMAINS HEALTHY 2 JOB GROWTH IS STRONG U.S. REAL GDP GROWTH U.S. EMPLOYMENT GROWTH 6% 4% YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUALIZED RATE 4% 3% 2% 2% - 1% (2%) - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 U.S. 25 TO 34 YR OLDS 3 EMPLOYERS HAVE PLENTY OF OPEN POSITIONS TO FILL; 4 …WHICH IS BEGINNING TO LURE MORE WAGE GROWTH HIT A CYCLICAL HIGH IN LATE 2018… WORKERS INTO THE LABOR FORCE U.S. JOB OPENINGS & U.S. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS U.S. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE 8 4% 64.5% YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 6 3% 64.0% MILLIONS 4 2% 63.5% 2 1% 63.0% - - 62.5% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 JOB OPENINGS AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (RIGHT AXIS) Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 17
Consumer Fundamentals THE CONSUMER IS IN GOOD SHAPE, SUPPORTING HEALTHY CONSUMPTION AND HOUSEHOLD FORMATION 1 CONSUMERS ARE CONFIDENT… 2 …AND HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL BURDENS REMAIN LOW U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE U.S. DEBT SERVICE RATIO & U.S. FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS RATIO 150 15% 20% INDEXED TO 100 IN 1985 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 100 13% 18% 50 11% 16% - 9% 14% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 DEBT SERVICE RATIO FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS RATIO (RIGHT AXIS) 3 RETAIL SALES INCREASING 4 …AND THE RATE OF AT A YEAR-OVER-YEAR PACE OF ≈ 5%... HOUSEHOLD FORMATION HAS IMPROVED U.S. RETAIL SALES CHANGE IN THE NUMBER OF U.S. HOUSEHOLDS 9% 3 YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUALIZED RATE 6% 2 MILLIONS 3% 1 - - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: The Conference Board, U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, U.S. Census Bureau. 18
Single Family Housing Market AFTER YEARS OF RECOVERY AND EXPANSION THE FOR SALE MARKET HAS BEGUN TO SLOW, DRIVEN BY DECLINING AFFORDABILITY 1 THE EXISTING FOR SALE HOME MARKET 2 …WHILE THE NEW-HOME MARKET SLOWED PLATEAUED IN 2018… U.S. NEW SINGLE FAMILY HOME SUPPLY & SALES U.S. EXISTING SINGLE FAMILY, CONDO AND CO-OP SUPPLY & SALES 9 6 9 900 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUALIZED RATE ANNUALIZED RATE THOUSANDS 6 4 6 600 MILLIONS MONTHS MONTHS 3 2 3 300 - - - - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MONTHS SUPPLY OF EXISTING HOMES ON THE MARKET MONTHS SUPPLY OF EXISTING HOMES ON THE MARKET EXISTING HOME SALES (RIGHT AXIS) EXISTING HOME SALES (RIGHT AXIS) 3 HOUSING PRICES INCREASED STEADILY… 4 …AND MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES ROSE LAST YEAR S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX; 20-METRO COMPOSITE FHFA INTEREST RATE TERMS ON CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGES 30 YEAR FIXED YEAR-OVER-YEAR INDEX CHANGE 15% 6% SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 10% 5% 5% 4% - 3% (5%) 2% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: National Association of Realtors, U.S. Census Bureau, S&P Dow Jones Indices, U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency. 19
Demographics DEMOGRAPHICS AND FAMILY FORMATION TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT APARTMENT DEMAND IN 2019 1 24 TO 31 YEAR OLDS REPRESENT 2 AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE AND FIRST BIRTH THE EIGHT MOST POPULOUS AGES IN THE U.S. EACH UP ≈ 2 YEARS IN THE LAST DECADE U.S. POPULATION BY AGE | 20 – 34 YEAR OLDS MEDIAN AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE AVERAGE AGE OF MOTHER AT FIRST BIRTH 15 30 14.3 14 26 14.0 MILLIONS AGE 13.5 13.4 13 22 13.0 12 18 20 - 22 23 - 25 26 - 28 29 - 31 32 - 34 1970 1978 1986 1994 2002 2010 2018 AGE AS OF DECEMBER 2019 MEDIAN AGE AT FIRST MARRIAGE AVERAGE AGE OF MOTHER AT FIRST BIRTH Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. 20
Business Fundamentals BUSINESS SECTOR IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT CONFIDENCE MAY BE STARTING TO WANE; DEBT LEVELS ARE ON THE RISE 1 CORPORATE PROFITS ON PACE TO INCREASE 15+% IN 2018 2 BUSINESS INVESTMENT REMAINED HEALTHY BUT TAILWINDS FROM THE TAX CUTS WILL SOON FADE THROUGH THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2018 U.S. CORPORATE PROFIT GROWTH AFTER TAX U.S. PRIVATE FIXED INVESTMENT GROWTH 30% 20% SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUALIZED RATE ANNUALIZED RATE 15% 10% - - (15%) (10%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NON-RESIDENTIAL EQUIPMENT INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY PRODUCTS 3 THE TRADE WAR AND GLOBAL STOCK MARKET ANXIETY 4 NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATE DEBT BURDENS ARE BEGINNING TO WEIGH ON BUSINESS CONFIDENCE GROWING MORE QUICKLY THAN GDP SURVEY OF BUSINESS CONFIDENCE U.S. NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATE DEBT & U.S. NOMINAL GDP 48 170 INDEXED TO 100 IN 2011 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DIFFUSION INDEX 36 150 24 130 12 110 - 90 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GLOBAL U.S. U.S. NON-FINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS DEBT U.S. NOMINAL GDP Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Moody’s Analytics, U.S. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 21
Multifamily Production MULTIFAMILY STARTS ARE FLAT AND REMAIN ELEVATED NATIONALLY BUT ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD IN AVB MARKETS 1 MULTIFAMILY STARTS 2 …BUT DECLINED IN OUR MARKETS RELATIVELY STABLE NATIONALLY… OVER THE COURSE OF 2018 U.S. MULTIFAMILY STARTS AVB MARKETS MULTIFAMILY STARTS 600 300 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUALIZED RATE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUALIZED RATE 400 200 THOUSANDS THOUSANDS 200 100 - - 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. AVB Markets excludes expansion markets (Southeast Florida and Denver). 22
Construction Market COST PRESSURES AND INVESTOR SENTIMENT SHOULD HELP TO RESTRAIN MULTIFAMILY START ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS 1 CONSTRUCTION COSTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE… 2 …AND LOAN OFFICERS ARE STILL TIGHTENING LENDING STANDARDS 9% 50% YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE 6% 25% 3% - - (25%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 NET % OF DOMESTIC SENIOR LOAN OFFICERS TIGHTENING TURNER CONSTRUCTION COST INDEX STANDARDS FOR MULTIFAMILY REAL ESTATE LOANS Source: Turner Construction Company, The Federal Reserve Board. 23
AVB Market Outlook JOB GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN 2019, BUT THE TIGHT LABOR MARKET IS EXPECTED TO BOOST WAGES TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME GROWTH ACTUAL 2018 & PROJECTED 2019 8% 4% - 2018 U.S. 2019 ’18 ’19 AVB MARKETS ’18 ’19 NEW ENGLAND ’18BY/NJ METRO ’19 ’18 ’19 ’18 ’18 ’19 PACIFIC NORTHWESTNORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ’19 SOUTHERN’18 CALIFORNIA ’19 CALIFORNIA U.S. AVB NEW METRO MID- PACIFIC NORTHERN SOUTHERN MARKETS ENGLAND NY/NJ ATLANTIC NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA JOB GROWTH WAGE GROWTH Source: National Association of Business Economics, Moody’s Analytics, AVB Market Research Group. AVB markets excludes expansion markets (Southeast Florida and Denver). 24
AVB Market Outlook DELIVERIES PROJECTED TO INCREASE MODESTLY IN AVB MARKETS, MOST NOTABLY IN NORTHERN CAL NEW APARTMENT COMPLETIONS ACTUAL 2018 & PROJECTED 2019 AS A % OF EXISTING MARKET RATE APARTMENT INVENTORY 6% 3% - AVB MARKETS NEW ENGLAND METRO NY/NJ MID-ATLANTIC PACIFIC NORTHERN SOUTHERN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA 2018 2019 PROJECTION Source: AVB Market Research Group. AVB markets excludes expansion markets (Southeast Florida and Denver). 25
AVB Portfolio 2019 SAME-STORE REVENUE GROWTH EXPECTED TO BE ≈ 3%; IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED IN ALL REGIONS EXCEPT SOUTHERN CAL PROJECTED 2019 FULL YEAR AVB SAME-STORE RENTAL REVENUE GROWTH 6% HIGH-END 3.5% 3% LOW-END 2.5% - AVALONBAY NEW ENGLAND METRO NY/NJ MID-ATLANTIC PACIFIC NORTHERN SOUTHERN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA 2019 PROJECTED 2018 ACTUAL Source: Company reports. 26
AVB Development AVB DEVELOPMENT STARTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE $800M TO $1B RANGE, DOWN 40% FROM THE 2013 – 2016 PERIOD AVB DEVELOPMENT STARTS AVERAGE 2 START VOLUME ≈ $ 1.4B AVERAGE START VOLUME ≈ $ 825M $ BILLIONS 1 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 PROJECTED Source: Company reports. Presented at share. 15 West 61st Street included in 2016. 27
AVB Development AGGRESSIVELY MANAGING EXPOSURE TO LAND INVENTORY LATE IN THE CYCLE… LAND HELD FOR DEVELOPMENT AS OF YEAR-END 600 3% 400 2% $ MILLIONS 200 1% - - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LAND HELD FOR DEVELOPMENT AT YEAR-END % OF TOTAL ENTERPRISE VALUE (RIGHT AXIS) Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms. 28
AVB Development …AND DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS PIPELINE OFFERS PLENTY OF FLEXIBILITY DEVELOPMENT RIGHTS PIPELINE AS OF YEAR-END 2018 BY TYPE ASSET DENSIFICATION, $ 0.9B CONVENTIONAL, $ 2.2B PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP, $ 1.0B Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms. 29
AVB Capital Management DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY IS ≈ 75% MATCH-FUNDED DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY UNDERWAY VERSUS AVAILABLE CAPITAL SOURCES AS OF YEAR-END 2018 4 REMAINING TO FUND, $ 0.8B $ BILLIONS Q4 2018 CASH FROM OPERATIONS AVAILABLE CASH & CASH 2 EQUIVALENTS, FOR INVESTMENT, ANNUALIZED, $ 0.4B $ 0.1B DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY, $ 3.0B SPENT-TO-DATE, $ 1.8B - PROJECTED TOTAL CAPITAL COST SOURCES Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms and reconciliations. Includes projected Total Capital Cost and spent-to-date for 15 West 61st Street. 30
AVB Capital Management WELL POSITIONED BALANCE SHEET MULTIFAMILY BALANCE SHEET METRICS AVB SECTOR WTD. AVG. LEVERAGE 23% 26% NET DEBT-TO-CORE EBITDAre 4.6x 5.3x UNENCUMBERED NOI 91% 83% WTD. AVG. COST OF FIXED RATE DEBT 3.7% 4.1% YEARS TO MATURITY OF TOTAL DEBT OUTSTANDING 9.7 6.5 PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL DEBT MATURITIES THROUGH YEAR-END 2021 17% 34% Source: Company reports, S&P Global. See Appendix for defined terms and reconciliations. Multifamily Sector Weighted Average includes AIV, CPT, ESS, EQR, MAA, and UDR. Data for AVB, CPT, ESS, EQR, MAA as of December 31, 2018; data for AIV and UDR as of September 30, 2018. AIV does not disclose Unencumbered NOI, or an equivalent measure, and is therefore excluded from the Multifamily Sector Weighted Average Unencumbered NOI figure. 31
AVB Capital Management MANAGEABLE DEBT MATURITY SCHEDULE DEBT MATURITIES & AMORTIZATION AS OF YEAR-END 2018 1.0 4% $ BILLIONS 0.5 2% - - 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 MATURITIES & AMORTIZATION % OF TOTAL ENTERPRISE VALUE (RIGHT AXIS) Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms. 32
Summary KEY TAKEAWAYS 2018 WAS A BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED YEAR FOR AVB → DELIVERED FULL YEAR CORE FFO PER SHARE OF $9.00, WHICH WAS $0.07 PER SHARE > INITIAL OUTLOOK(1) → YEAR-OVER-YEAR LIKE-TERM EFFECTIVE RENT CHANGE ACCELERATED IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR → DECREASED PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION TO THE NORTHEAST; INCREASED PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION TO SE FLORIDA AND DENVER → REDUCED NET DEBT-TO-CORE EBITDARE TO 4.6X (A CYCLE LOW) AND INCREASED UNENCUMBERED NOI TO 91% IN 2019, WE EXPECT APARTMENT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS TO REMAIN HEALTHY → PROJECTING FULL YEAR SAME-STORE REVENUE GROWTH OF ≈ 3%, 50 BASIS POINTS > 2018 → EXPECTING A SMALLER CONTRIBUTION FROM NEW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO A LOWER VOLUME OF COMPLETIONS IN 2018 AND ’19 → CONTINUING TO MANAGE LIQUIDITY AND THE BALANCE SHEET TO PURSUE GROWTH IN A RISK-MEASURED WAY Source: Company reports. See Appendix for defined terms and reconciliations. (1) As provided on January 31, 2018. 33
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation dated February 4, 2019 is provided in connection with AvalonBay’s fourth quarter 2018 earnings conference call on February 5, 2019. This presentation is intended to accompany AvalonBay’s earnings release dated February 4, 2019, and should be read in conjunction with the earnings release. AvalonBay does not intend to update any of these documents, which speak only as of their respective dates. The earnings release is available on AvalonBay’s website at www.avalonbay.com/earnings For definitions, additional information and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial information and certain defined terms included in this presentation, see pages 35 to 44 in this presentation in addition to Attachment 15 to the earnings release. This presentation dated February 4, 2019 contains forward-looking statements, which are indicated by the use of words such as “expects,” “projects,” “forecast,” “outlook,” “estimate” and other words that do not relate to historical matters. Actual results may differ materially. For information concerning risks and other factors that could cause such differences, see “Forward Looking Statements” in AvalonBay’s earnings release that accompanies this presentation. The Company does not undertake a duty to update the projections and expectations stated in this presentation, which speak only as of the date of this presentation unless otherwise referenced. 34
ADDITIONAL DEFINITIONS AND RECONCILIATIONS OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES AND OTHER TERMS Development Communities are communities that are under construction and for which a certificate or certificates of occupancy for the entire community has not been received. These communities may be partially complete and operating. Development Rights are development opportunities in the early phase of the development process for which the Company either has an option to acquire land or enter into a leasehold interest, for which the Company is the buyer under a long-term conditional contract to purchase land, where the Company controls the land through a ground lease or owns land to develop a new community, or where the Company is the designated developer in a public-private partnership. The Company capitalizes related pre-development costs incurred in pursuit of new developments for which the Company currently believes future development is probable. → Asset Densification Development Rights are when the Company develops additional apartment homes at existing stabilized operating communities the Company owns, and will be constructed on land currently associated with those operating communities. → Conventional Development Rights are when the Company either has an option to acquire the land or enter into a leasehold interest, for which the Company is the buyer under a long-term conditional contract to purchase land, where the Company controls the land through a ground lease or owns the land to develop a new community. → Public-Private Partnership Development Rights are when the Company either has an option to acquire the land or enter into a leasehold interest, for which the Company is the buyer under a long-term conditional contract to purchase the land, where the Company is the designated developer in a public-private partnership with a local government entity. 35
ADDITIONAL DEFINITIONS AND RECONCILIATIONS OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES AND OTHER TERMS EBITDA, EBITDAre and Core EBITDAre are considered by management to be Q4 Q4 supplemental measures of our financial performance. EBITDA is defined by $ IN THOUSANDS 2018 2017 the Company as net income or loss attributable to the Company before Net income $ 385,636 $ 237,486 interest income and expense, income taxes, depreciation and amortization. Interest expense, net, inclusive of loss on EBITDAre is calculated by the Company in accordance with the definition extinguishment of debt, net 69,955 53,833 adopted by the Board of Governors of the National Association of Real Estate Income tax (refund) expense (247) 39 Investment Trusts (“NAREIT”), as EBITDA plus or minus losses and gains on Depreciation expense 158,914 157,100 the disposition of depreciated property, plus impairment write-downs of EBITDA $ 614,258 $ 448,458 depreciated property, with adjustments to reflect the Company's share of EBITDAre of unconsolidated entities. Core EBITDAre is the Company’s Gain on sale of communities (242,532) (92,845) EBITDAre as adjusted for noncore items outlined in the table below. By Joint venture EBITDAre adjustments 1,413 2,925 further adjusting for items that are not considered part of the Company’s EBITDAre $ 373,139 $ 358,538 core business operations, Core EBITDAre can help one compare the core operating and financial performance of the Company between periods. A (Gain) loss on other real estate transactions (9) 11,153 reconciliation of EBITDA, EBITDAre and Core EBITDAre to net income for Q4 Joint venture promote - - 2018 and Q4 2017 is presented to the right: Casualty and impairment loss (gain) 826 (5,438) Lost NOI from casualty losses covered by business - 1,662 interruption insurance Business interruption insurance proceeds (26) - Advocacy contributions 2,040 - Severance related costs 884 (66) Development pursuit write-offs and expensed transaction costs, net 566 232 Asset management fee intangible write-off 538 - Legal settlements 146 589 Core EBITDAre $ 378,104 $ 366,670 36
ADDITIONAL DEFINITIONS AND RECONCILIATIONS OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES AND OTHER TERMS Established Communities (or same-store communities) are consolidated communities in the markets where the Company has a significant presence (New England, New York/New Jersey, Mid-Atlantic, Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California) and where a comparison of operating results from the prior year to the current year is meaningful, as these communities were owned and had Stabilized Operations, as defined below, as of the beginning of the respective prior year period. Therefore, for 2018 operating results, Established Communities are consolidated communities that have Stabilized Operations as of January 1, 2017, are not conducting or planning to conduct substantial redevelopment activities and are not held for sale or planned for disposition within the current year. 37
ADDITIONAL DEFINITIONS AND RECONCILIATIONS OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES AND OTHER TERMS Q4 Q4 FULL YEAR FULL YEAR FFO and Core FFO are considered by management to be supplemental $ IN THOUSANDS EXCEPT PER SHARE DATA 2018 2017 2018 2017 measures of our operating and financial performance. FFO is calculated Net income attributable to common stockholders $ 385,734 $ 237,573 $ 974,525 $ 876,921 by the Company in accordance with the definition adopted by NAREIT. Depreciation - real estate assets, including joint 158,838 156,413 629,814 582,907 FFO is calculated by the Company as Net income or loss attributable to venture adjustments Distributions to noncontrolling interests 11 10 44 42 common stockholders computed in accordance with GAAP, adjusted for (Gain) loss on sale of unconsolidated entities gains or losses on sales of previously depreciated operating communities, (2,019) 57 (10,655) (40,053) holding previously depreciated real estate cumulative effect of a change in accounting principle, impairment write- Gain on sale of previously depreciated real estate (242,532) (92,845) (374,976) (252,599) downs of depreciable real estate assets, write-downs of investments in FFO attributable to common stockholders $ 300,032 $ 301,208 $ 1,218,752 $ 1,167,218 affiliates which are driven by a decrease in the value of depreciable real Adjusting items: estate assets held by the affiliate and depreciation of real estate assets, Joint venture losses 538 139 852 950 including adjustments for unconsolidated partnerships and joint Joint venture promote - - (925) (26,742) Impairment loss on real estate 826 - 826 9,350 ventures. By excluding gains or losses related to dispositions of previously Casualty (gain) loss, net on real estate - (5,438) (612) (3,100) depreciated operating communities and excluding real estate Business interruption insurance proceeds (26) - (26) (3,495) depreciation (which can vary among owners of identical assets in similar Lost NOI from casualty losses covered by business - 1,662 1,730 7,904 interruption insurance condition based on historical cost accounting and useful life estimates), Loss on extinguishment of consolidated debt 14,775 1,310 17,492 25,472 FFO can help one compare the operating and financial performance of a Advocacy contributions 2,040 - 3,489 - company’s real estate between periods or as compared to different Hedge ineffectiveness - - - (753) companies. Core FFO is the Company's FFO as adjusted for non-core Severance related costs 884 (66) 1,466 87 Development pursuit write-offs and expensed items outlined in the table below. By further adjusting for items that are transaction costs, net 566 232 1,324 1,406 not considered part of our core business operations, Core FFO can help (Gain) loss on other real estate transactions (9) 11,153 (344) 10,907 one compare the core operating and financial performance of the Acquisition costs - 92 - 92 Legal settlements 146 589 513 680 Company between periods. A reconciliation of Net income attributable to Income taxes (251) - (251) - common stockholders to FFO and to Core FFO for Q4 2018, Q4 2017 and Core FFO attributable to common stockholders $ 319,521 $ 310,881 $ 1,244,286 $ 1,189,976 full year 2018 and full year 2017 is presented to the right: Average shares outstanding - diluted 138,463,943 138,245,981 138,289,241 138,066,686 Earnings per share - diluted $ 2.79 $ 1.72 $ 7.05 $ 6.35 FFO per common share - diluted $ 2.17 $ 2.18 $ 8.81 $ 8.45 Core FFO per common share - diluted $ 2.31 $ 2.25 $ 9.00 $ 8.62 38
ADDITIONAL DEFINITIONS AND RECONCILIATIONS OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES AND OTHER TERMS Interest Coverage is calculated by the Company as Core EBITDAre, divided by Leverage is the outstanding principal balance of the Company’s debt as interest expense, net. Interest Coverage is presented by the Company a percentage of Total Enterprise Value. Management believes that because it provides rating agencies and investors an additional means of Leverage can be one useful measure of a real estate operating comparing our ability to service debt obligations to that of other companies. company’s long-term liquidity and balance sheet strength, because it A calculation of Interest Coverage for Q4 2018 and Q4 2017 is presented shows an approximate relationship between a company’s total debt and below (a reconciliation of Core EBITDAre to net income for Q4 2018 and Q4 the current total market value of its assets based on the current price at 2017 is located on page 36): which the Company’s common stock trades. Changes in Leverage as a result of changes in debt levels also can influence changes in per share results. A calculation of Leverage as of December 31, 2018 is presented Q4 Q4 below: $ IN THOUSANDS 2018 2017 AS OF Core EBITDAre $ 378,104 $ 366,670 $ IN THOUSANDS 12/31/2018 Common stock $ 24,107,391 Interest expense, net $ 55,180 $ 52,523 Operating partnership units 1,305 Total debt 7,102,354 Interest Coverage 6.9x 7.0x Total Enterprise Value $ 31,211,051 Leverage 23% 39
ADDITIONAL DEFINITIONS AND RECONCILIATIONS OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES AND OTHER TERMS Like-Term Effective Rent Change represents the percentage change in Net Debt-to-Core EBITDAre is calculated by the Company as total debt effective rent between two leases of the same lease term category for the that is consolidated for financial reporting purposes, less consolidated same apartment. The Company defines effective rent as the contractual rent cash and cash in escrow, divided by annualized fourth quarter 2018 for an apartment less amortized concessions and discounts. Average Like- Core EBITDAre. A calculation of Net Debt-to-Core EBITDAre for Q4 2018 Term Effective Rent Change is weighted based on the number of leases and Q4 2017 is presented below (a reconciliation of Core EBITDAre to meeting the criteria for new move-in and renewal like-term effective rent net income for Q4 2018 and Q4 2017 is located on page 36 of this change. New move-in like-term effective rent change is the change in presentation): effective rent between the contractual rent for a resident who moves out of Q4 Q4 an apartment, and the contractual rent for a resident who moves into the $ IN THOUSANDS 2018 2017 same apartment with the same lease term category. Renewal like-term Total debt principal $ 7,102,355 $ 7,404,313 effective rent change is the change in effective rent between two Cash and cash in escrow (217,864) (201,906) consecutive leases of the same lease term category for the same resident Net debt $ 6,884,491 $ 7,202,407 occupying the same apartment. Core EBITDAre $ 378,104 $ 366,670 Core EBITDAre, annualized $ 1,512,416 $ 1,466,680 Net Debt-to-Core EBITDAre 4.6x 4.9x 40
ADDITIONAL DEFINITIONS AND RECONCILIATIONS OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES AND OTHER TERMS Projected FFO and Projected Core FFO, as provided within this presentation in the Company’s outlook, are calculated on a basis consistent with historical FFO and Core FFO, and are therefore considered to be appropriate supplemental measures to projected Net Income from projected operating performance. A reconciliation of the ranges provided for Projected FFO per share (diluted) for the full year 2019 to the ranges provided for projected EPS (diluted) and corresponding reconciliation of the ranges for Projected FFO per share to the ranges for Projected Core FFO per share is as follows: LOW HIGH RANGE RANGE Projected EPS (diluted) - Full Year 2019 $ 5.18 $ 5.68 Depreciation (real estate related) 4.61 4.81 Gain on sale of communities (0.79) (0.99) Projected FFO per share (diluted) - Full Year 2019 $ 9.00 $ 9.50 Joint venture promote and other income, 0.01 0.01 development pursuit and other write-offs Adjustments related to condo activities at 15 West 0.04 0.04 61st Street Projected Core FFO per share (diluted) - Full Year 2019 $ 9.05 $ 9.55 41
ADDITIONAL DEFINITIONS AND RECONCILIATIONS OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES AND OTHER TERMS Projected NOI, as used within this presentation for certain Development represents management’s estimate, as of the date of this presentation, of projected stabilized rental revenue minus projected stabilized operating expenses. Projected NOI is calculated based on the first twelve months of Stabilized Operations following the completion of construction. Projected stabilized rental revenue represents management’s estimate of projected gross potential minus projected stabilized economic vacancy and adjusted for projected stabilized concessions plus projected stabilized other rental revenue. Projected stabilized operating expenses do not include interest, income taxes (if any), depreciation or amortization, or any allocation of corporate-level property management overhead or general and administrative costs. In addition, projected stabilized operating expenses do not include property management fee expense. Projected gross potential is generally based on leased rents for occupied homes and management’s best estimate of rental levels for homes which are currently unleased, as well as those homes which will become available for lease during the twelve month forward period used to develop Projected NOI. Projected Stabilized Yield (also expressed as “weighted average initial stabilized yield” or words of similar meaning) means Projected NOI as a percentage of Total Capital Cost (weighting based on Total Capital Cost). 42
ADDITIONAL DEFINITIONS AND RECONCILIATIONS OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES AND OTHER TERMS Q4 2018 cash from operations available for investment, annualized is the Company’s fourth quarter 2018 Core FFO, less (i) fourth quarter 2018 dividends declared – common and (ii) fourth quarter 2018 Asset Preservation costs, annualized. Q4 2018 cash from operations available for investment, annualized does not represent the Company’s Net cash provided by operating activities as presented in the Company’s consolidated financial statements. A reconciliation of Q4 2018 cash from operations available for investment, annualized to Core FFO is as follows: Q4 $ IN THOUSANDS 2018 Core FFO attributable to common stockholders $ 319,521 Dividends declared - common (203,750) Established and Other Stabilized Asset (20,145) Preservation Capex Q4 2018 cash from operations available for $ 95,626 investment Q4 2018 cash from operations available for $ 382,504 investment, annualized Total Capital Cost includes all capitalized costs projected to be or actually incurred to develop the respective Development Community, or Development Right, including land acquisition costs, construction costs, real estate taxes, capitalized interest and loan fees, permits, professional fees, allocated development overhead and other regulatory fees, offset by proceeds from the sale of any associated land or improvements, all as determined in accordance with GAAP. With respect to communities where development was completed in a prior or the current period, Total Capital Cost reflects the actual cost incurred, plus any contingency estimate made by management. Total Capital Cost for communities identified as having joint venture ownership, either during construction or upon construction completion, represents the total projected joint venture contribution amount. For joint ventures not in construction, Total Capital Cost is equal to gross real estate cost. 43
ADDITIONAL DEFINITIONS AND RECONCILIATIONS OF NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES AND OTHER TERMS FULL YEAR FULL YEAR $ IN THOUSANDS 2018 2017 Total Enterprise Value represents the aggregate of the market value of the Net income $ 974,175 $ 876,660 Company’s common stock, the market value of the Company’s operating Indirect operating expenses, net of corporate partnership units outstanding (based on the market value of the 76,522 65,398 income Company’s common stock) and the outstanding principal balance of the Investments and investment management 7,709 5,936 Company’s debt. A calculation of Total Enterprise Value as of December 31, expense Expensed transaction, development and other 2018 is presented below: 4,309 2,736 pursuit costs, net of recoveries Interest expense, net 220,974 199,661 AS OF Loss on extinguishment of debt, net 17,492 25,472 $ IN THOUSANDS 12/31/2018 General and administrative expense 56,205 50,814 Common stock $ 24,107,391 Joint venture income (15,270) (70,744) Depreciation expense 631,196 584,150 Operating partnership units 1,305 Casualty and impairment loss (gain), net 215 6,250 Total debt 7,102,354 Gain on sale of communities (374,976) (252,599) (Gain) loss on other real estate transactions (345) 10,907 Total Enterprise Value $ 31,211,051 NOI from real estate assets sold or held for sale (58,620) (14,573) NOI $ 1,539,586 $ 1,490,068 Total Established $ 1,165,509 $ 1,112,472 Other Stabilized 178,172 196,733 Unencumbered NOI as calculated by the Company represents NOI Redevelopment 143,471 118,062 Development 52,434 62,801 generated by real estate assets unencumbered by outstanding secured NOI $ 1,539,586 $ 1,490,068 debt as a percentage of total NOI generated by real estate assets. The NOI for Established Communities $ 1,165,509 $ 1,112,472 Company believes that current and prospective unsecured creditors of the NOI for Other Stabilized Communities 178,172 196,733 Company view Unencumbered NOI as one indication of the borrowing NOI for Redevelopment Communities 143,471 118,062 capacity of the Company. Therefore, when reviewed together with the NOI for Development Communities 52,434 62,801 Company’s Interest Coverage, EBITDA and cash flow from operations, the NOI from real estate assets sold or held for sale 58,620 14,573 Company believes that investors and creditors view Unencumbered NOI as Total NOI generated by real estate assets $ 1,598,206 $ 1,504,641 NOI on encumbered assets 142,271 168,005 a useful supplemental measure for determining the financial flexibility of NOI on unencumbered assets $ 1,455,935 $ 1,336,636 an entity. A calculation of Unencumbered NOI for 2018 and 2017 is Unencumbered NOI 91% 89% presented to the right: 44
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