ING Asian Debt Strategy - Roy Scheepe ING Investment Management Asia Pacific (Singapore) Limited
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ING Asian Debt Strategy Roy Scheepe ING Investment Management Asia Pacific (Singapore) Limited Wiesbaden, June 2012 For professional investors use only and not for use in public For professional investors use only and not for use in public 0 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Why Asian Debt? Solid fundamentals Long-term appreciation potential of Asian currencies Attractive valuations of Asian bonds vis-à-vis global counterparts Diversification benefits Steady growth of asset class Dedicated investor base Favorable risk-reward profile For professional investors use only and not for use in public 1 ING Asian Debt Strategy
“The Asian century” Asia’s share of global GDP – 1700-2050 Global population 70 1.4 60 1.2 50 1.0 % of global GDP 40 0.8 Bln 30 0.6 20 0.4 10 0.2 0 0.0 1700 1870 1950 1980 2010 2030 2050 China India Other US Japan Germany UK Asia Source: Asian Development Bank (Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, August 2011), Maddison (1700-1950) (2007), Centennial Group International (1951-2050) (2011). Data for 1750-1790 are PPP and data for 1991-2050 are in market prices. Asia accounts for 60% of the world’s population Asian Development Bank: “Asia to account for over 50% of global GDP by 2050.” Goldman Sachs estimates that, by 2050, the Chinese GDP will exceed US GDP by 50% and that Indian GDP will exceed Euro Area GDP. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 2 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Asia vs other EM: better fiscal dynamics, lower inflation Inflation Public debt as % GDP 8% 60% 6% 50% 40% 5% 30% Source: Credit Suisse (EM 3% Quarterly, January 2012) 20% Aggregates for regions are weighted by 2010 nominal GDP 2% ($bn) figures. Asia doesn't 10% include Japan. 0% 0% Asia EMEA LatAm Asia EMEA LatAm 2009 2010 2011E 2012F 2013F 2009 2010 2011E 2012F 2013F Current account surplus/deficit 20 2011 2012E 15 10 % of GDP 5 0 -5 -10 ico y In a M a N ai a St pt m H an lia e st l do d Po ka Ire ry Z e ain Vi ia* Th any G al na ilip rea n nd R ng g s iL d es M ore Au zi ro a s G sia ut It al ric e si ec In lan on d wa Eu esi ne Sr lan te Egy ga g na a Ar ra ex p an la Ko at d ay H rlan hi ew Sp rtu Af Br Ph Ko us p m Ja re pi ai et un C n a a al er h T ng he d Si et So ni N U Source: CEIC, Haver, CIRA, Citigroup, March 2012 * India current account based on March data (fiscal year end) For professional investors use only and not for use in public 3 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Sovereigns debt levels and trend Asia-Pacific sov. debt/GDP US & Europe sov. debt/GDP % of GDP % of GDP Source: Moody’s Investor Service, Asia-Pacific Sovereigns in 2012 and Beyond, February 2012 Asian (ex-Japan) sovereign debt ratios are in good shape relative to their developed-market peers ForAsian ING professional Debt investors use only and not for use in public 4 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Primary Asian Debt strategies Asian Debt Hard Currency Asian Debt Local Currency Credit risk dominant FX and interest rate risk dominant Asia risk remuneration in form of credit Direct link to domestic macro cycle spread Mainly government debt: corporate debt Increasingly a corporate asset class markets still developing Hard-currency sovereigns LC Money Local-currency government and corporates Market bonds Dedicated track record since 1996 Dedicated track record since 2008 Co-manage global LC EMD strategy since 1998 For professional investors use only and not for use in public 5 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Growth of Asian bond market Asia ex-Japan has grown to become world’s 4th Daily largest bond market Country Bid/Ask Turnover (US$bn) 8.0 China 3 4.0 Foreign CCY Hong Kong 2-3 12.0* 7.0 Local CCY India 1-2 3.1 6.0 Indonesia 5-10 0.5 Korea 1-2 8.9 5.0 Malaysia 2-4 0.7 USD, trn 4.0 Philippines 5-15 0.3 Singapore 2-3 1.6 3.0 Taiwan 0.5-2 1.5 2.0 Thailand 3-6 0.1 1.0 Australia 1 3.8 New Zealand 2 0.5 0.0 Russia 10-13 0.3 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Sep) Brazil 1-4 2.1 Mexico 2 1.4 Sources: ING Investment Management; BIS, ADB, HSBC; and, Bloomberg L.P. Local-currency Daily Turnover * Excludes bills translated to USD based on 31 March 2012 FX rates from Bloomberg. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 6 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Asia: Ratings trend – Foreign currency ratings Investment grade 10 Aaa Singapore While developed- 9.5 Aa1 9 Aa2 HK market sovereign 8.5 Aa3 8 A1 China issuers face 7.5 A2 7 A3 Taiwan significant 6.5 Baa1 6 Baa2 Malaysia challenges as 5.5 Baa3 5 Ba1 Korea reflected by 4.5 Ba2 Thailand 4 Ba3 downgrades, the 3.5 B1 India 3 B2 rating trend for 2.5 B3 Indonesia 2 Asian sovereign 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Apr-12 issuers continues to develop positively. High yield Baa3 5.5 Ba1 5 Philippines 4.5 Ba2 4 Ba3 Sri Lanka 3.5 B1 Vietnam 3 B2 2.5 B3 Pakistan 2 Caa1 1.5 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Apr-12 Source: Moody’s Foreign Currency Ratings as of 30 April 2012 For professional investors use only and not for use in public 7 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Asia: Ratings trend – Local currency ratings Investment grade Aaa 10 Singapore 9.5 Aa1 Aa2 9 HK 8.5 Aa3 8 A1 China 7.5 A2 7 A3 Taiwan 6.5 Baa1 6 Baa2 Malaysia 5.5 Baa3 5 Ba1 Korea 4.5 Ba2 4 Ba3 Thailand 3.5 B1 3 B2 India 2.5 B3 2 Indonesia 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Apr-12 High yield Baa3 5.5 Ba1 5 Philippines 4.5 Ba2 4 Ba3 Sri Lanka 3.5 B1 Vietnam 3 B2 2.5 B3 Pakistan 2 Caa1 1.5 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Apr-12 Source: Data based on Moody’s, data as of 30 April 2012. Note: No local-currency debt rating from Moody’s for Sri Lanka, S&P rating used in lieu thereof. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 8 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Asian Debt: complementary to global EMD JPM EMBI Global Diversified: Small Asian weight Middle East 4.7% Sri Lanka Latin Africa China 4.8% Vietnam 39.1% 12.9% 6.0% 3.6% Pakistan 1.9% Malaysia 13.1% Asia 18.7% Philippines 32.7% Indonesia 31.1% Europe 31.6% Source: JPMorgan, as of 30 April 2012. Most of Asia solid investment grade: Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan not ‘emerging’, Malaysia soon to follow. No corporate debt in JPM Emerging Market Bond Index. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 9 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Asian HC Bonds: JPMorgan Asia Credit Index Duration: 5.49 years Outstanding issues: 458 Yield: 4.96% Outstanding issuers: 214 Market Cap: $313bn Average Rating: Baa3/BBB-# Country Sector Rating Others Utilities NR AAA India B 2% Oil & Gas 4% 4% 2% AA 8% 5% 6% Korea Media & 5% Sovereign 22% Telecom 22% China 3% 13% BB 20% A Industrials 36% Philippines 26% Hong Kong 13% 16% Thailand Quasi-Sov 2% 21% BBB Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Financials 27% 4% 7% 13% 19% Source: JPMorgan as of 31 March 2011. # The average rating of the Fund is determined by calculating the portfolio’s weighted average security rating factors. Security rating factors are based on the security’s Moody’s rating or, if not available, the security’s S&P rating. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 10 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Asian LC Bonds: HSBC Asia Local Bond Index HSBC Asia Local Bond Index Duration: 5.36 years Outstanding issues: 919 Yield: 3.77% Outstanding issuers: 230 Market Cap: US$1,256bn Average Rating#: Baa2 / BBB Country Sector Rating China Financial Utilities Not Rated India AAA 11% 7% 2% Consumer BB 5% 6% Philippines 1% 18% 5% 5% Hong Kong Industrial 13% 2% Indonesia 13% BBB AA Malaysia 27% 15% 10% Thailand 8% Korea Singapore 16% A Taiw an Government 15% 30% 3% 88% Source: HSBC Asian Local Bond Index as of 31 January 2012 # The average rating of the Fund is determined by 1) average of the three or, if not available, 2) the lower rating of the available two rating agencies or 3) the ratings of the sole agency that is providing the rating for security. If they do not fall in the above options, they will be classified as not rated. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 11 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Asian Debt: 5 year historical returns and volatility Asset Category Return Risk Return per Risk Asia USD Bonds 7.46% 9.77% 0.76 US Treasuries 6.38% 5.26% 1.21 sov. debt European Govt Bonds 4.74% 4.35% 1.09 UK Gilts 7.83% 6.45% 1.21 Global EM Debt 8.25% 10.85% 0.76 Asian LC Bonds 6.73% 8.10% 0.83 Asian IG Corp 6.60% 9.14% 0.72 equities corporate debt Asian HY Corp 8.49% 21.00% 0.40 US IG Corp 6.94% 7.47% 0.93 US HY Corp 8.10% 14.28% 0.57 European IG Corp (Unhedged) 4.44% 4.88% 0.91 European HY Corp (Unhedged) 8.18% 16.90% 0.48 World Equities -0.13% 20.71% -0.01 EM Equities 2.37% 22.33% 0.11 Asian Equities 5.62% 28.50% 0.20 European Equities -6.51% 18.22% -0.36 Source: JPMorgan, HSBC, Barclays Based on annualized USD monthly returns for 5 years as of 31 March 2012, monthly returns are based on local currency returns of the various asset classes. Asian Debt has provided investors with relatively high returns In times of financial market stress, Asian Debt market volatility has been relatively high due to the relatively illiquid nature its corporate segment Relative inefficiency of Asian Debt market (under-researched) provides opportunity for alpha generation For professional investors use only and not for use in public 12 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Correlation of Asian Debt with other asset classes Asian USD Asian LC Asian USD Asian USD Asset Category Bonds Bonds IG Corp HY Corp US Treasuries 0.14 0.19 0.19 -0.13 sov. debt European Govt Bonds 0.11 0.15 0.14 -0.07 UK Gilts 0.13 0.18 0.14 -0.10 Global EM Debt 0.97 0.66 0.93 0.90 Asian LC Bonds 0.59 1.00 0.50 0.54 US IG Corp 0.80 0.59 0.82 0.70 corporate debt US HY Corp 0.74 0.56 0.68 0.81 European IG Corp (Unhedged) 0.64 0.48 0.63 0.66 European HY Corp (Unhedged) 0.65 0.33 0.62 0.78 World Equities 0.66 0.62 0.59 0.74 equities EM Equities 0.68 0.57 0.61 0.78 Asian Equities 0.68 0.68 0.60 0.77 European Equities 0.57 0.49 0.50 0.67 Source: Barclays, HSBC, JP Morgan Based on annualized USD monthly returns for 5 years as of 31 March 2012. Monthly returns are based on local currency returns of the various asset classes. Inclusion of Asian Debt aids diversification For professional investors use only and not for use in public 13 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Asian vs Global government bond yields Attractive yield pick up 7 6 5 4 Yield (%) 3 2 1 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 HSBC Asian Local Bond Index Citi World Government Bond Index Source: Bloomberg. As of 31 March 2012. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 14 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Asia debt: attractive risk adjusted returns Asia HC debt vs. Asia equity Asia LC debt vs. Asia equity 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 - 0 May-05 May-10 Mar-01 Nov-02 Mar-06 Nov-07 Mar-11 Jan-02 Sep-03 Jul-04 Jan-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 Jan-12 Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 JP Morgan Asia Credit Index HSBC Asia Local Bond Index MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index Note: JP Morgan Asia Credit Index and MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index reset at 100 as Note: HSBC Asia Local Bond Index and MSCI Asia ex-Japan reset at 100 as per 30 Nov, 1999 per 30 Mar, 2001 Source: Bloomberg, HSBC, JP Morgan, data expressed as of 31 March 2012. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 15 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Expertise in Asian Debt among a broad range of strategies Hard Currency (HC) Debt Local Currency (LC) Debt EMD L Asia HC EMD HC Global HY Asia LB EMD LC Bond Asia Exposure Asia Exposure Asia Exposure Asia Exposure Asia Exposure Asia Exposure 100% +/-15% +/- 5% 100% +/- 25% +/- 30% Benchmark Benchmark Benchmark Benchmark Benchmark Benchmark JPM Asia Credit JPM Emerging BarCap Composite HSBC Asian Local JPM Emerging JPM Global Bond Index (JACI) Markets Bond Index U.S. / Europe High Bond Index (ALBI) Local Markets Index Index - Emerging – Global Div Yield Index Plus (ELMI+) Markets (EMBI GD) (GBI EM GD) Total assets managed by the Asian Debt Team is USD 4.9 bln as of 31 March 2012 For professional investors use only and not for use in public 16 ING Asian Debt Strategy
ING Investment Management Asian Fixed Income Team Desmond Lim Wee Lee Cheng Portfolio Assistant Sr. Credit Analyst Rob Drijkoningen Clement Chong Co-head, Sr. Credit Analyst Emerging Market Debt Joep Huntjens Prashant Singh, CFA Sr. Investment Sr. Investment Sean Jutahkiti, CFA Manager Manager Economist Sr. Credit Analyst (Hard Currency) (Local Currency) (in Progress) Michael Reyes, CFA Investment Manager (HC Sov, Primary Trader ) Yuan Xing Pek, CFA Credit Analyst Peter Sengelmann, CFA Client Portfolio Manager As of 30 April 2012 For professional investors use only and not for use in public 17 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Integration with EMD teams and Credit teams in other regions Asia (Singapore) Europe (The Hague) Americas (Atlanta) Em. Markets Rates & FX Asia Focus EMEA Focus LatAm Focus Sovereign, Focus Prashant Singh Head of Global EMD 3 Portfolio Managers Michael Reyes 1 Strategist 1 Credit Analyst Economist (Vacancy) 3 Portfolio Managers Inv. Grade Asia Focus Europe Focus US Focus Corporate Credit Focus 4 Portfolio Managers 6 Portfolio Managers 5 Credit Analysts 6 Credit Analysts Joep Huntjens Wee Lee Cheng Sean Jutahkiti Europe Focus US Focus High Yield Clement Chong Yuan Xing Pek Head of Global HY 2 Portfolio Managers 1 Portfolio Manager 5 Credit Analysts 3 Credit Analysts ING IM Asian Debt Team For professional investors use only and not for use in public 18 ING Asian Debt Strategy
ING (L) Renta Fund Asian Debt (Hard Currency) Characteristics Objectives Investment objective : Outperform the JP Morgan Asia Credit Composite Index over a 3 year period, with a target information ratio of 0.5 Benchmark : JP Morgan Asia Credit Composite Index Target tracking error : 1% to 3% Other characteristics Debt instruments denominated mainly in USD, issued by issuers from Asian countries, such as China, Hong Investment universe : Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. Investment style : Multi-alpha, fundamental, bottom-up driven Up to 1/3rd of the portfolio can be invested in debt issued in Asian currencies (off-benchmark), Yen or Euro. Currency exposure : Currency risk is actively managed. Single holding exposure : Maximum single holding 10% Total assets approx USD 541m (as of 31 March 2012) Assets under management : Mutual fund assets USD 158.50m (as of 30 April 2012) Effective yield : 4.93% (as of 30 April 2012) Weighted average duration : 5.01 (as of 30 April 2012) • Attractive risk - return characteristics for Asian debt market • Diversification benefits Benefits : • International investors underinvested, although this may not change soon • Capitalise on Asian debt market inefficiencies via multi-alpha strategy For illustration purposes only and the information is not an indicator of future performance. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 19 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Strong track record in Asian Debt (Hard Currency) Performance (%) As of 30 April 2012 Rolling Annualized 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years ING (L) Renta Fund Asian Debt (Hard Currency) 3.27 5.12 7.15 16.64 9.07 9.16 – P Cap JP Morgan Asia Credit Composite Index* 3.06 5.02 7.00 12.25 7.55 7.71 Value Added 0.21 0.10 0.15 4.39 1.52 1.45 Source: ING Investment Management Europe. Gross performance in USD with dividend reinvested. All data are expressed as of 30 April 2012. *Benchmark of this strategy changed from JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified – Asia to JPMorgan Asia Credit Index (JACI) - Sovereign & Quasi-sovereign on March 1, 2004. On June 1, 2005, benchmark changed from JACI - Sovereign & Quasi sovereign to JPMorgan Asia Credit Composite Index, representing a better diversified index with less concentration to individual issuers such as the Philippines government. The benchmark is using gross series in USD. Performance quoted above is historical and does not guarantee future results. Star ratings & recent awards - ING (L) Renta Fund Asian Debt (Hard Currency) 1Overall Morningstar Rating™ 2 Best Bond Asia Pacific Fund 3 Best Bond Asia Pacific Fund 4 Best-in-Class Fund for the 5 Winnerof AsianInvestor 2012 Investment Performance 1 3-year Morningstar Rating™ over 3 & 5 years over 3 & 10 years Asia Bond category Awards - Hard currency Category 1 © 2012 Morningstar, Inc. All right reserved Morningstar RatingTM as of 30 April 2012. 2 Lipper Fund Awards 2012 Hong Kong reflect fund’s performance as at 31 December 2011. 3 Lipper Fund Awards 2012 Singapore reflect fund’s performance as at 31 December 2011. 4 Benchmark 100 Funds of the Year 2011 is based on the performance as of 31 December 2011. 5 AsianInvestor 2012 Investment Performance Awards is based on the performance as of 31 December 2011. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 20 ING Asian Debt Strategy
ING Asian Debt Local Bond Strategy Typical characteristics Objectives Investment objective : Outperform the HSBC’s Asian Local Bond Index over a 3 year period, with a target information ratio of 0.5 Benchmark : HSBC’s Asian Local Bond Index (ALBI) ex China, India Target tracking error : 1% to 3% Other characteristics Debt instruments denominated in local currency, issued by issuers from Asian countries, such as China, Hong Investment universe : Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand Investment style : Multi-alpha, fundamental, bottom-up driven Benchmark currencies + USD (max 10%); Currency exposure : Max. 10% deviation per currency from benchmark weight Single holding exposure : Maximum single holding 10% Total assets approx. USD 1.2bn (as of 31 March 2012) Assets under management* : Mutual fund assets USD 83m (as of 30 April 2012) * Dedicated Asian Debt LC funds. Source ING IM Asia Pacific For illustration purposes only and the information is not an indicator of future performance. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 21 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Asian Debt Local Bond Mandate Performance (%) As of 31 March 2012 Rolling Annualised 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 3 Years ING Asian Debt Local Bond Strategy -1.80 2.70 5.58 6.60 13.78 HSBC ALBI (customized)* -1.88 2.49 4.98 6.56 12.06 Value Added 0.08 0.21 0.60 0.04 1.72 Source: ING Investment Management Asia Pacific, Performance Measurement. Gross performance in USD with dividend reinvested. All data are expressed as of 31 March 2012. Inception date: 14 May 2008. *The benchmark is customized based on the HSBC Asian Local Bond Index, and is displayed using gross series in USD. Note: ING IM has extensive experience in managing Asian debt local currency as an integrated part of our Global Emerging Market Local Currency (EMD LC) strategies, and has been running institutional mandates dedicated to Asian local currency debt since mid-2008. The performance shown is for reference only and is the not the track record of a fund. Different fee structures and charges will apply to the ING (L) Renta Fund Asian Debt (Local Bond) fund (the “Fund”). The performance shown does not indicate how the Fund will perform. The Fund has a broader investment universe and a broader corresponding customized benchmark. Performance quoted above is historical and does not guarantee future results. For professional investors use only and not for use in public 22 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Summary ING Asian Debt Strategy Clear and proven investment philosophy Large and experienced specialist team based in Asia (Singapore) Strong track record (both absolute and relative) Favourable balance of moderate risk and attractive returns Availability via Luxembourg based Funds (UCITS) with daily trading and various share classes (hedged/ unhedged) For professional investors use only and not for use in public 23 ING Asian Debt Strategy
Ansprechpartner - Niederlassung Deutschland - Westhafenplatz 1 60327 Frankfurt Web: www.ingim.de Susanne Hellmann Michael Schrinner Managing Director Senior Sales Director Institutionals Tel.: +49 69 / 50 95 49 – 21 Tel.: +49 69 / 50 95 49 – 13 Fax: +49 69 / 50 95 49 – 30 Fax: +49 69 / 50 95 49 – 31 Email: susanne.hellmann@ingim.com Email: michael.schrinner@ingim.com For professional investors use only and not for use in public 24 ING Asian Debt Strategy
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