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© 2016 The Infrastructure Consortium for Africa Secretariat c/o African Development Bank 01 BP 1387, Abidjan 01, Côte d'Ivoire Disclaimer This report was written by the ICA Secretariat in collaboration with a consultant. While care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the information provided in this report, the authors make no representation, warranty or covenant with respect to its accuracy or validity. No responsibility or liability will be accepted by the ICA Secretariat, its employees, associates and/or www.icafrica.org consultants for reliance placed upon information contained in this document by any third party. 2 | INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015
Contents Foreword 4 About the ICA 5 Definitions and Acronyms 6 List of Graphics and Maps 8 1. The Big Picture 2015 9 1.1 Key Messages and Findings 10 2. Financing Trends 12 2.1 Who is Financing Africa’s Infrastructure 12 2.2 Financing Trends by Sector 14 2.3 Financing Trends by Region 16 3. General Trends 18 3.1 Climate Resilient Infrastructure 18 3.2 Quality Infrastructure 20 3.3 Strategic Analysis 22 4. ICA Member Financing 24 4.1 Overview 24 4.2 Types of Funding 26 4.3 Trends in Commitments and Disbursements 28 4.4 ICA Member Activities 34 5. Other Public Sources of Financing 38 5.1 African National Budgets for Infrastructure 38 5.2 Subnational Financing 42 5.3 China 44 5.4 Arab Co-ordination Group 46 5.5 Non-ICA European Sources 48 5.6 Regional Development Banks 50 5.7 Brazil, India, South Korea 51 6. Private Sector 52 6.1 Private Sector Engagement with the Public Sector 52 6.2 Private Sector Survey 55 7. Sectoral Analysis 58 7.1 Overview 58 7.2 Transport 60 7.3 Water and Sanitation 64 7.4 Energy 68 7.5 ICT 72 7.6 Multi-sector 76 8. Regional Analysis 78 8.1 Support for Regional and PIDA Projects 78 8.2 North Africa 80 8.3 West Africa 81 8.4 Central Africa 82 8.5 East Africa 83 8.6 Southern Africa, Excluding Republic of South Africa 84 8.7 Republic of South Africa 85 Annexes 86 INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA - 2015 | 3
Foreword It is a pleasure to present to you the seventh edition of the ICA these financings may well be critical in this emerging annual report, Infrastructure Financing Trends in Africa – paradigm. Development partners are also looking beyond 2015. The report presents trends in a consistent manner, projects, investing in people through training and skills identifying how resources are being mobilised to make an development initiatives and schemes to mobilise African impact on Africa’s infrastructure development. people and businesses to create and maintain the continent’s infrastructure. Innovations in this year’s report include more detailed analysis of the processes and dynamics that drive or restrain the The role of the Programme for Infrastructure Development in continent’s infrastructure financing trends. The report includes Africa (PIDA) and its Priority Action Plan (PAP) is examined views from a wide range of stakeholders on these forces and against a backdrop of increased commitments to some of its how strategies are emerging and developing to address the larger programmes. Commitments to PIDA/PAP projects are challenges of infrastructure financing in Africa. As well as substantially up in 2015, exceeding $1.3bn and accounting for perspectives from ICA members, the report includes views 7.2% of overall commitments, 4.8% of country commitments from private sector stakeholders in Africa’s infrastructure and 16.2% of regional commitments. development, including private equity investors, debt At the other end of the scale, Infrastructure Financing Trends in financiers, developers and major contractors. Africa – 2015 looks at the challenges of financing smaller scale Infrastructure Financing Trends in Africa – 2015 shows total developments such as the increasing range of renewable commitments from all sources analysed of $83.4bn compared energy opportunities. with $74.5bn in 2014. This 12% increase is encouraging, though Climate change considerations rose to the fore in 2015 in the some sources of funds differ markedly. China announced wake of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 21) that led $20.9bn of investments in infrastructure in 2015 compared to the Paris Agreement in which 195 countries adopted the with $3.1bn in 2014. Identified budget allocations from 44 first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. The African governments were limited to $28.4bn in 2015, report describes how ICA members have risen to the challenge compared with $34.5bn from 42 countries in the previous year. of focusing even more on developing climate resilient There was no exceptional item of funding such as the $8.4bn infrastructure. We hope that the 2016 edition will cover this in raised in 2014 by Egyptian citizens for the expansion of the more in detail. Suez Canal. The Arab Co-ordination Group committed $4.4bn to infrastructure projects across the continent. All ICA members focus on mechanisms for improving and assessing the effectiveness of their work. This year’s report ICA members reported infrastructure financing commitments focuses on Quality Infrastructure, an emerging approach in of $19.8bn in 2015. Comparing data on a broadly like-for-like infrastructure development circles that incorporates elements basis, excluding exceptional contributions, commitments have of economic efficiency, social inclusion, safety and resilience remained quite constant over the four years to 2015 at and environmental sustainability. between $18.3bn and $19.8bn. Infrastructure Financing Trends in Africa – 2015 looks at Data from the UK’s development finance institution CDC is development partner support for centres of training included for the first time in the ICA members’ data. Additional excellence to bridge the human resource capacity gap in the data from the US’ Power Africa initiative is provided in this energy sector and on private sector investments that are year’s report too. creating skills development opportunities in the ICT sector and new manufacturing facilities in the railway sub-sector. ICA members are consistently mobilising their resources. Disbursements totalled $12.6bn in 2015 compared with $13bn The ICA plans in the 2016 edition of Infrastructure Financing in 2014. Over recent years, they have remained reasonably Trends in Africa to specifically monitor and analyse resource constant, amounting to $11.4bn in 2013 and $12.7bn in 2012. flows to important Renewable Energy and Climate Change initiatives. This is in line with the ICA vision that all Africans The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development has should have access to sustainable and reliable infrastructure emerged as a major infrastructure funder in North Africa with services, including energy, transport, water and ICT. We are commitments of $638m. sure this report will inform and assist the mobilisation of resources needed to achieve that vision. Blended finance and a greater use of development capital are amongst the innovative finance mechanisms deployed to MOHAMED H HASSAN leverage public and private funds for infrastructure development. Support from ICA members able to catalyse Co-ordinator, ICA Secretariat 4 | INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015
About the ICA The Infrastructure Consortium for infrastructure development with an improve the co-ordination of activities Africa (ICA) was launched at the emphasis on regional infrastructure, among members, and with other G8 Gleneagles summit in 2005. The recognizing the challenges at this significant sources of infrastructure membership is the G8 countries, scale. The Consortium is intended to finance, including China, India, Arab the World Bank Group, the African make its members more effective at and Islamic financiers, African Development Bank (AfDB) Group, supporting infrastructure by pooling regional development banks and the the European Commission, the efforts in selected areas such as private sector. n European Investment Bank and information sharing, project Development Bank of South development and good practice. Urban Transportation Africa. Although ICA is not a financing The Diagnostic Study and Project African institutions such as the agency, the consortium acts as a Development/Investment Pipeline for platform to broker more financing Urban Transportation in Sub-Saharan African Union, the New Partnership Africa was commissioned by the ICA, for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) of infrastructure projects and with funds from EIB and the EC, and and the Regional Economic programmes in Africa. support from AfDB. Communities all participate as The main objectives of the ICA can be The study was set in the context of a observers in the meetings of the broadly defined as follows: Sub-Saharan African urban population consortium. AfDB has hosted the set to grow from 40% to over 56% by Secretariat of the ICA since its • Increase the amount of finance 2050. The continent is rapidly going to sustainable infrastructure in transforming into a predominantly inception in 2006. urban continent. Urban proliferation Africa from public, private and public At the May 2011 Annual meeting of the can drive significant and inclusive and private sources; economic growth. But challenges Consortium, the decision was made to remain. Several cities will almost • Facilitate greater cooperation enlarge ICA membership from G8 to double in size over the next 30 years. between members of ICA and other G20. In November 2013, the Republic of important sources of finance e.g. The objective was to identify specific South Africa joined the ICA as the first opportunities and develop a project China, India, Arab Funds and the G20 country non-G8 and first African development and investment pipeline private sector; country member of the ICA. of urban transportation projects in • Highlight and help remove policy Sub-Saharan Africa. The ICA is a major initiative to and technical blockages and progress; Stage one of the study diagnosed and accelerate progress to meet the urgent assessed 16 of Africa’s fastest growing • Increase knowledge of the sector infrastructure needs of Africa in and largest cities based on earlier and through monitoring and reporting support of economic growth and studies by the Sub-Saharan Africa on the key trends and development. Transport Programme (SSATP) on development. It addresses both Mobility and Accessibility in Urban national and regional constraints to Increasingly, the ICA is working to Areas of Africa. The aim was to identify five potential cities or urban areas in IWA/ICA Nexus Report indicates where investment can be which investable projects could be focused. developed. The study looked at each The “nexus” is the place where water, location’s needs for urban mobility, energy and agricultural security The study applied a structured analytical transport or accessibility projects and systems intersect. All rely on water process to Africa’s Volta and Lake services as well as each urban area’s infrastructure. A major study Victoria basins and used this analysis to preparedness to host investable urban commissioned by the International provide an overview of regional transport projects. Water Association on behalf of the ICA challenges and opportunities for and published in 2015 looks at how to multipurpose water infrastructure. It set Stage two comprised field surveys of address the water, agriculture and out to design a framework for assessing cities – Accra, Addis Ababa, Dakar, Dar energy security “nexus” in Africa. The how current and upcoming es Salaam and Lagos – and identified International Union for Conservation infrastructure projects deal with nexus and assessed five projects that could Nature was also a partner in challenges. be considered for investment or other development of the study. financing by ICA members including Central to the nexus concept is proposals for candidate PPP projects. Nexus Trade-offs and Strategies for an understanding of the Opportunities for investment in Addressing the Water, Agriculture and interdependencies between the three sustainable urban transport mobility Energy Security Nexus in Africa outlines systems. The nexus concept involves a were then identified. a roadmap towards solutions in a typical process for allocating and using African transboundary river basin. It resources to ensure water, energy and The ICA then arranged an investors’ identifies possible regional solutions to food security for growing populations at conference to present and discuss the local problems and an understanding of a time of climate change, land use study’s recommendations and to transformation and economic share the investment opportunities diversification. n identified in the studies. n the institutional capacity required and the gaps that need to be filled. This INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015 | 5
Definitions, Acronyms Budget Data project from identification through Gabon, Rwanda, São Tomé and concept design to financial close. This Príncipe (STP). Budget allocations: Total approved includes feasibility testing and East Africa: Djibouti, Eritrea, government budget for the respective financial and legal structuring, as well Ethiopia, Kenya, Seychelles, Somalia, item. as raising capital. South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Total infrastructure budget: Sum Uganda. Funding of energy, water and sanitation, Southern Africa excluding RSA: transport, and ICT budget allocations. Commitments: Direct funds Angola, Botswana, Comoros, Lesotho, Where available, significant multi- approved in a given year to projects Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, sector or other infrastructure over their lifetime. Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, allocations are indicated separately. Zambia, Zimbabwe. Disbursements: Money outflow going to infrastructure projects during RSA: Republic of South Africa. ICA Members a given year. AfDB, DBSA, EC, EIB, G8 countries, ODA – official development Regional Development Republic of South Africa and the Assistance: Grant or loan with public Banks World Bank Group. In 2011 all G20 concessional modalities administered Central African States Development countries were invited to join the by donor government agencies. Bank (CASDB), DBSA (an ICA ICA. The AU Commission, NEPAD Non ODA: Non-concessional funding member), EBID, EADB, West African Secretariat and Regional Economic from public or private sources. Development Bank (BOAD). Communities participate as observers at ICA meetings. Regional project: Projects with Sector direct beneficiaries in more than one Infrastructure country. These can either be cross- Transport: Airports, ports, rail, road. border projects or other regional Total infrastructure budget: Sum Energy: Generation, transmission integration projects involving a of energy, water and sanitation, and distribution of electricity and gas minimum of two countries or national transport, ICT, and multi-sector (including pipelines, and associated projects. infrastructure budget allocations. infrastructure). Hard infrastructure: Physical Location Water and sanitation: Sanitation, infrastructure. North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, irrigation, (trans-boundary) water Soft infrastructure: Measures to Mauritania, Morocco, Tunisia. resource infrastructure, water supply, support or accompany the production waste (solid & liquid) treatment West Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, of physical infrastructure outputs, and management. Cape Verde, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, including research, enabling Guinea Bissau, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, ICT: Information and communication legislation, project preparation and Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra technology, including broadband, capacity building. Leone, Togo. mobile network, satellite. Project preparation: The Central Africa: Burundi, Cameroon, Multi-sector: Not sector-specific or undertaking of all project preparation Central African Republic (CAR), cross-cutting projects. This could cycles or development activities Chad, Congo, Democratic Republic of include implementation of a PPP unit necessary to take an infrastructure Congo (DRC), Equatorial Guinea, or capacity building programmes. Acronyms ADF – African Development Fund AfDB-OPSD – Private Sector Department AUC – African Union Commission ADFD – Abu Dhabi Fund for Development AfDB-OWAS – Water & Sanitation AWF – African Water Facility Department BADEA – Arab Bank for Economic AFC – Africa Finance Corporation AfDB-OWAS UA Development in Africa AFD – Agence Française de Développement (France) AFESD – Arab Fund for Economic and BDEAC – Banque de Développement des Social Development Etats de l’Afrique Centrale AfDB – African Development Bank AMCOW–African Ministers Council on BIDC – Banque d’Investissement et de AfDB-OITC – Transport & ICT Department Water Développement de la CEDEAO (EBID) AfDB-ONEC – Energy, Environment and ACG – Arab Co-ordination Group bn – 1 billion = 1,000,000,000 Climate Change Department AU – African Union BIO – Belgian Investment Company for 6 | INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015
Developing Countries GIF – Global Infrastructure Facility PIDA – Programme for Infrastructure BOAD – Banque Ouest Africaine de GIZ – Deutsche Gesellschaft für Development in Africa Développement Internationale Zusammenarbeit PIDA/PAP – PIDA Priority Action BOOT – build-own-operate-transfer IBRD – International Bank for Programme BNDS – Banco Nacional de Reconstruction and Development PPA – power purchase agreement Desenvolvimento ICA – Infrastructure Consortium for Africa PPDU – ECOWAS’ Project Preparation and C2Ds – Debt Reduction-Development ICT – Information and Communications Development Unit Contracts Technology PPFN – Project Preparation Facilities CADF – China-Africa Development Fund IDA – International Development Network CAGR – compound annual growth rate Association (World Bank Group) PPIAF – Public-Private Infrastructure IDB – Islamic Development Bank Advisory Facility CAR – Central African Republic IDC – Industrial Development Corporation PPIU – COMESA’s Project Preparation and CASDB – Central African States of South Africa Ltd Implementation Unit Development Bank IFC – International Finance Corporation PPP – public-private partnership CIF – Climate Investment Fund IPO – initial public offering Proparco – AFD’s private sector arm COFIDES – Spanish Development Funding Company IPP – independent power PTA Bank – Preferential Trade Area Bank COMESA – Common Market for Eastern producer/project PV – photovoltaic and Southern Africa IPPF – Infrastructure Project Preparation RDB – regional development bank CSP – concentrated solar power Facility RECs – Regional Economic Communities DBSA – Development Bank of Southern ITF – Infrastructure Trust Fund RSA – Republic of South Africa Africa JBIC – The Japan Bank for International SADC – Southern African Development DEG – Deutsche Investitions- und Co-operation Community Entwicklungsgesellschaft (KfW Group) JICA – Japan International Co-operation SEFA – Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa DFI – development finance institution Agency SFD – Saudi Fund for Development DFID – Department for International KFAED – Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic SME – small- and medium-size enterprise Development (UK) Development SSA – Sub-Saharan Africa DRC – Democratic Republic of Congo KfW – KfW Development Bank (Germany) SWF – sovereign wealth fund EAC – East African Community LIC – low-income country TA – technical assistance EADB – East Africa Development Bank m – 1 million = 1,000,000 MD – Moroccan dirham TSF – Transition Support Facility EAIF – Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund MCC – Millennium Challenge Corporation UEMOA – West African Economic and EAPP – Eastern African Power Pool MDB – Multilateral development banks Monetary Union EBID – ECOWAS Bank for Investment and MIC Fund – Middle Income Countries UNECA – United Nations Economic Development Fund Commission for Africa EC – European Commission MIGA – Multilateral Investment Guarantee UAE – United Arab Emirates ECA – export credit agency Agency (WBG) UK –United Kingdom of Great Britain and MoU – memorandum of understanding Northern Ireland ECOWAS – Economic Community Of West African States MW – megawatt US – United States EDF – European Development Fund NEPAD – New Partnership for Africa’s $ – US dollar EDFI – European DFIs Development USAID – United States Agency for NTF – Nigeria Trust Fund International Development EIB – European Investment Bank Norfund – Norwegian Investment USTDA – US Trade and Development EPC – engineering, procurement and Development Fund for Developing Agency construction Countries WACDEP – Water, Climate & Development EU-AITF – European Union-Africa NPCA – NEPAD Planning and Co- Programme Infrastructure Trust Fund ordinating Agency WAPP – West African Power Pool EXIM Bank – The Export-Import Bank of the United States O&M – operations and maintenance WBG – World Bank Group FMO – Netherlands’ Development OCGT – open cycle gas turbine WSP – Water and Sanitation Programme Finance Company ODA – official development assistance ZAR – South African rand G8 – Group of Eight (Canada, France, OeEB – Development Bank of Austria Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK, US) OFID – Organisation of the Petroleum G20 – Group of 20 (Argentina, Australia, Exporting Countries [OPEC] Fund for Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, International Development India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South OPIC – Overseas Private Investment Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Corporation (US) South Africa, Turkey, UK, US and the EU) % – per cent INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015 | 7
List of Graphics and Maps Figure 1:ICA members’ commitments & disbursements, 2010-15 10 Figure 49: Subnational financing – average sources of funds 42 Figure 2: Total infrastructure financing, 2010-2015 10 Figure 50: Subnational financing – average spend per sector 42 Figure 3: Total infrastructure financing in 2015 by sector 11 Figure 51: Chinese commitments by sector 2011-2015 44 Figure 4: Total infrastructure financing in 2015 by region 11 Figure 52: Chinese commitments by region 2011-2015 45 Figure 5: Total infrastructure financing in 2015 by source 11 Figure 53: ACG commitments by sector & region, 2013-2015 46 Figure 6: Financing flows into Africa’s infrastructure, 2015 12 Figure 54: ACG commitments, by institution 2010-2015 47 Figure 7: Sources of finance 2015, public external and private 13 Figure 55: European commitments by sector, 2015 48 Figure 8: Total infrastructure commitments by sector & region 13 Figure 56: European commitments by region by %, 2015 48 Figure 9:Total infrastructure commitments by sector & source 14 Figure 57: European commitments by country and EBRD, 2015 49 Figure 10: Total infrastructure commitments by sector, 2014-15 14 Figure 58: DBSA commitments by sector, 2015 50 Figure 11: Trends in ICA member commitments, 2010-2015 15 Figure 59: BOAD commitments by sector, 2015 50 Figure 12: Total infrastructure commitments by region & source 16 Figure 60: India commitments 2012-2015 51 Figure 13: Total commitments by region, 2014- 2015 16 Figure 61: PPI Project Database trends 2010-2015 52 Figure 14:Total ICA member commitments by region, 2011-2015 17 Figure 62:Private sector projects reaching financial close, 2015 53 Figure 15: Total ACG commitments by region, 2011-2015 17 Figure 63: Private sector financing by region, 2015 53 Figure 16:ICA member & ACG commitments by region, 2011-15 17 Figure 64: Private sector financing trends by sector, 2010-2015 53 Figure 17: Average ICA & ACG commitments by region, 2011-15 17 Figure 65: Private sector survey: respondents’ role 55 Figure 18: ICA members’ 2015 commitments by sector 24 Figure 66: Sectors where respondents are active 55 Figure 19: ICA members’ 2015 commitments by region 24 Figure 67: Investment destinations – top 10 attractive countries 56 Figure 20: ICA members’ 2015 commitments by type of funding 26 Figure 68: Investment destinations – top three first choices 56 Figure 21: ICA members’ 2015 hard/soft/project preparation Figure 69: African portfolio intentions, next two years 57 infrastructure commitments 27 Figure 70: Greatest challenges facing the private sector 57 Figure 22: ICA members’ 2015 hard and soft infrastructure Figure 71: Delays experienced by the private sector 57 disbursements 27 Figure 72: Total financing by sector and source, 2015 59 Figure 23: ICA members’ commitments by sector, 2010-2015 28 Figure 73: ICA member commitments to transport, 2011-2015 61 Figure 24: ICA members’ commitments by region, 2010-2015 28 Figure 74: Total commitments to transport, 2014 & 2015 61 Figure 25: ICA members’ 2015 commitments, donor and region 29 Figure 75: Transport sector map with selected projects 63 Figure 26: ICA members’ 2015 disbursements, donor and region 29 Figure 76: Total transport sector commitments by region, 2015 63 Figure 27:ICA members’ 2015 commitments, sector and region 30 Figure 77: ICA member commitments to water, 2011-2015 65 Figure 28:ICA members’ 2015 disbursements, sector and region 30 Figure 78: Total commitments to water, 2014 & 2015 65 Figure 29:ICA members' disbursements by sector, 2012-2015 30 Figure 79: Water sector map with selected projects 67 Figure 30: Disbursement rates per sector for selected ICA Figure 80: Total water sector commitments by region, 2015 67 member projects completed in 2015 31 Figure 81: ICA member commitments to energy, 2011-2015 69 Figure 31:Trends in regional infrastructure portfolios, 2010-2015 32 Figure 82: Total commitments to energy, 2014 and 2015 69 Figure 32: Country vs. regional commitments per sector Figure 83: Energy sector map with selected projects 71 incl PIDA/PAP shares 33 Figure 84: Total energy sector commitments by region, 2015 71 Figure 33: Country vs. regional disbursements per sector incl PIDA/PAP shares 33 Figure 85: ICA member commitments to ICT, 2011-2015 73 Figure 34: National government budget allocations control Figure 86: Total commitments to ICT, 2014 and 2015 73 group (larger economies) $bn, 2013-2015 39 Figure 87: ICA member multi-sector commitments, 2011-2015 77 Figure 35: National government budget allocations control Figure 88: Total multi-sector commitments, 2014 and 2015 77 group (smaller economies), 2013-2015 39 Figure 89: Total commitments to North Africa, sector & source 80 Figure 36: National government budget allocations by sector 39 Figure 90: ICA members’ commitments to North Africa, 2011-15 80 Figure 37: National government budget allocations by region 39 Figure 91: Total commitments to West Africa, sector & source 81 Figure 38: Identifiable national budget allocations, South Africa 40 Figure 92: ICA members’ commitments to West Africa, 2011-15 81 Figure 39: Identifiable national budget allocations, Egypt 40 Figure 93: Total commitments to Central Africa, sector & source 82 Figure 40: Identifiable national budget allocations, Angola 40 Figure 94: ICA members’ commitments to Central Africa, 2011-15 82 Figure 41: Identifiable national budget allocations, Ethiopia 40 Figure 95: Total commitments to East Africa, sector & source 83 Figure 42: Identifiable national budget allocations,Cameroon 40 Figure 96: ICA members’ commitments to East Africa, 2011-15 83 Figure 43: Identifiable national budget allocations, Nigeria 40 Figure 97:Total commitments, Southern Africa, sector & source 84 Figure 44: Infrastructure in national budgets, 2015, $ per capita 41 Figure 98: ICA members’ commitments, Southern Africa, 2012-15 84 Figure 45: Infrastructure in national budgets, 2015, % of GDP 41 Figure 99: Total commitments to South Africa, sector & source 85 Figure 46: Percentage of infrastructure allocations by sector 41 Figure 100: ICA members’ commitments, South Africa, 2012-15 85 Figure 47: Sources of finance for sample cities & municipalities 42 Figure 101: ICT sector map with selected projects 89 Figure 48: Spend by sector for sample cities & municipalities 42 Figure 102: Total ICT sector commitments by region, 2015 89 8 | INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015
1.1 Key Messages and Findings A total of $83.4bn was committed energy sector, with South Africa the to Africa’s infrastructure main beneficiary with investments of development in 2015 compared $3.8bn. with $74.5bn in 2014. This Even though the total amount of comprised nearly $28.4bn of identified commitments is 12% up in 2015 African national budget allocations, compared with 2014, there are causes commitments from ICA members of for concern due to steep declines in $19.8bn, identifiable private sector one sector, water, and one region, investment of $7.4bn and $27.7bn Central Africa. from non-ICA bilateral and multilateral financiers. Water sector commitments show a Of the $27.7bn of non-ICA trend of significantly declining bilateral and multilateral finance, commitments since 2013. In that $20.9bn is from announcements of year, ICA commitments alone to the funding from China. This sector were nearly $6bn but by 2015, compares with just $3bn in the total funding from all sources previous year while the average of amounted to $8.1bn. Of this amount, announced investments from China ICA members alongside other over the five years to 2015 is $12.3bn. development partners provided 44% Wide year-on-year fluctuations and while national governments provided lack of official data make it difficult to around 51%. The private sector verify figures regarding China’s provided just 1.4%, while China rarely investments in Africa. invests in water projects. In contrast, 2015 saw reduced Central Africa saw a substantial identifiable infrastructure $3.4bn or 41% fall in anticipated allocations of $28.4bn by 44 infrastructure spending from African national governments $8.3bn in 2014 to $4.9bn in 2015, compared with $34.5bn based on 42 due to African national government countries in 2014. The reduction in budget allocations declining from allocations was most marked in oil $4.3bn to $2.2bn and ICA members’ producing economies. commitments declining from $3.7bn to $1.3bn. Arab Co-ordination Group Private sector commitments (ACG) members’ commitments are up increased by $4.6bn in 2015 to from a relatively low base of $79m in $7.4bn, of which $7.2bn went to the 2014 to $498m in 2015. South Africa saw the biggest increase in commitments from $4.9bn in 2014 to $11.7bn in 2015, substantially due to Chinese and Figure 2 private capital in its transport and Total infrastructure financing, 2010- energy sectors. 2015 Energy sector commitments member commitments increased from appear to have seen a sustained $3.7bn in 2014 to $6.8bn in 2015 while but not entirely even increase ACG commitments over the same over the last five-years, attracting period increased from $1.2bn to increasing amounts of both public and $2.1bn. Overall commitments to the private capital. But the increase is transport sector remained broadly the centred on North Africa and Southern same in 2015 at $34.7bn compared Africa. with $34.3bn in the previous year, There are substantially more although the 2014 data included the Figure 1 commitments to the transport exceptional $8.4bn Suez Canal ICA members’ commitments and disbursements, 2010-2015 sector from several sources. ICA funding. 10 | INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015
Whereas there are several indications USAID, which did not report in 2014, and to increase the impact of EU aid. of stronger investment flows into the comprises information from the Power The facility will progressively energy sector it is too soon to tell Africa interagency, including OPIC, substitute EU-AITF. whether increased flows to transport EXIM Bank, USTDA and others. Blending mechanisms – albeit with operations from some sources marks EXIM Bank, OPIC and MCC did not different definitions of what the beginning of an upward trend. provide data directly. constitutes blended funding – are ICA members reported infrastructure Data for CDC, the wholly-UK much talked about among some ICA financing commitments of $19.8bn in government owned DFI that manages members and attracted $1.4bn in 2015. This is 5.6% or $1bn more than capital provided entirely by DFID is commitments during 2015 compared the $18.8bn reported in 2014 but provided for the first time. Russia’s with $1.3bn in 2013. includes additional data from the US Prognoz responded to the ICA’s ‘Quality Infrastructure’ is (Power Africa, $307m) and the UK request for data for the first time and emerging as a new approach in (CDC, $139m). reported that it had made no infrastructure development commitments in 2015 to Africa’s Disbursements in 2015 totalled circles. It incorporates elements of infrastructure. $12.6bn, a small decline of 2.9% economic efficiency, social inclusion, compared with the $13bn DBSA’s regional funding portfolio safety and resilience, environmental reported in 2014. looks set on a growth path. In 2015 sustainability as well as the it made regional commitments of convenience and comfort seen as vital Disbursements over recent years have $292m. New commitments from for sustainable development. remained reasonably constant, DBSA’s international operations were amounting to $11.4bn in 2013 and Private sector interest in made in respect of initiatives $12.7bn in 2012. infrastructure is certainly robust in Congo, DRC, Kenya, Nigeria, in some areas, notably in Nigeria’s Commitments to PIDA/PAP Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. ICT sector and South Africa’s projects exceeded $1.2bn in 2015, DBSA, acting as fund manager on renewables market and growing in a very substantial increase over behalf of the SADC Project others, including Morocco’s water the $161m reported in 2014. The Preparation and Development sector and East Africa’s ports. $1.2bn of PIDA commitments Facility, obtained approval for the first reported in 2015 represent 7.2% of In the fourth annual African allocation of preparation funding, with overall commitments, 4.8% of country Infrastructure Investment Survey, $3.5m for the development of the commitments and 16.2% of regional South Africa ranked top in the Mozambique-Zimbabwe-South Africa commitments. choice of investment location. In regional power interconnector. 2014 it shared the top spot with The EBRD in 2015 emerged as The EC has launched the Africa Kenya, which has dropped back to major contributor to Africa’s Investment Facility (AfIF), a new second place in the rankings. Ghana infrastructure with commitments blending mechanism that started has taken third position from Nigeria, of more than $638m. operating in November 2015 and which is now in fourth place. Morocco, Of members who have reported in the combines grants with other resources which did not feature in the top ten previous four years Germany’s DEG such as loans from DFIs to leverage investment locations at all in 2014, provided no data. Data submitted by additional financing for development ranked fifth in the 2015 survey. n Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Total infrastructure financing in 2015 by Total infrastructure financing in 2015 by Total infrastructure financing in 2015 by sector region source INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015 | 11
2. Financing Trends Figure 6 Reported and identified financing flows into Africa’s infrastructure, 2015 2.1 Who Is Financing Africa’s Infrastructure A total of $83.4bn was committed analysis of identifiable infrastructure (excluding DBSA) committed $418m to Africa’s infrastructure allocations across 44 African national in 2015, a decrease on the $583m development compared with governments revealed that $28.4bn committed in 2014. $74.5bn in 2014. But there has was allocated in 2015 compared with been a substantial shift in the $34.5bn based on 42 countries in ICA members committed $19.8bn in sources of funds committing to 2014. 2015, up from $18.8bn in 2014. infrastructure spending. Excluding the exceptional Power Contributions from non-ICA bilaterals Africa contribution of $7bn to 2013 Announcements of Chinese funding and multilaterals apart from China increased from around $6bn in 2014 to figures, ICA member commitments are up to nearly $21bn in 2015 $6.8bn in 2015, largely as a result of have remained quite constant over the compared with just $3bn in the ACG commitments increasing from past four years at between $18.3bn previous year. In 2013, announced investments from China were $9.1bn $3.5bn in 2014 to a record $4.4bn in and $19.8bn. while the average over the five years 2015, surpassing the group’s A notable aspect of this year’s report is to 2015 is $12.3bn. But the wide year- previously highest commitments of $3.9bn in 2012. Overall commitments that there are no reported exceptional on-year fluctuations and lack of in 2015 were bolstered by $500m from single-item fundings. The 2014 report official data render it very difficult to Brazil, $524m from India and $88m recorded the $8.4bn Suez Canal predict future trends with any from South Korea. expansion funding by public accuracy. subscription to investment certificates, Commitments from non-ICA The apparent increase in funding while the $7bn Power Africa European DFIs and multilaterals from China in 2015 is offset by contribution was reported in 2013. reduced from $1.3bn to $876m, most pressure from low oil and commodity of which was provided by the EBRD, However, China’s $21bn of reported prices on African governments to with approvals of $638m. allocate fewer budget resources to investments could be considered infrastructure development. The ICA’s Africa’s regional development banks 2015’s exceptional circumstance. n 12 | INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015
Figure 7 Sources of finance 2015, public external and private Figure 8 Total 2015 infrastructure commitments by sector and region INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015 | 13
2.2 Financing Trends By Sector Figures 9 and 10 Total 2015 infrastructure commitments by sector and source (left); Total infrastructure commitments by sector, 2014-2015 (above right) Of the $83.4bn total financing sector stood at $2.5bn in 2015, slightly commitments made in 2015, total more than the $2.3bn recorded the Data Note commitments to the African previous year. Discerning trends by sector requires transport sector stood at $34.7bn, several years’ analysis of funding Analysis of consistent ICA and ACG from a consistent set of sources. Data broadly similar to the $34.4bn member data provides a clear picture in this report to describe total recorded the previous year. This infrastructure commitments contains of how trends are shaping up in is despite substantial Chinese only two years of reasonably different sectors. Figure 11 shows consistent data on African national investments and a significant investments in all sectors by ICA and government budget allocations so increase in ICA funding, offset by ACG members since 2010. meaningful trends based on this declining budget allocations from wider ranger of sources will yield African national governments, trends in the future. A two-year picture is nevertheless useful. n Transport traditionally the largest group of Transport commitments dipped in funders in the transport sector. 2011-14 but returned to $6.8bn in Commitments to the water sector 2015, just as was reported in 2010. sources canvassed for this year’s stood at $8.1bn in 2015, a decline from Commitments from ACG members report suggested substantial amounts the $9.7bn recorded in 2014. African rose quite sharply to $2.1bn in 2015, of investment were coming into East national governments allocated and have now overtaken energy Africa because several projects in the $4.1bn or 50.8% while ICA members allocations making transport the most region, which is also attracting reported $3.2bn or 39.2% of all water invested in sector by that group. Chinese investment to its transport commitments. sector, are underpinned by substantial But commitments to the transport political will and improved regional The energy sector received sector can be subject to spikes – in cohesion. commitments of $34.7bn in 2015, a terms of public and private sectors – significant rise on the $22.4bn if a few big projects are committed to Water invested the previous year due to in one year, as happened with two big In the four years to 2014, announcements of very large Chinese port projects featuring in the PPI commitments to the water and investments, strong commitments Database in 2013 for example. transport sectors from ICA and ACG from DFIs and successful efforts to It remains to be seen whether this members broadly tracked each other attract private investment in South year’s encouraging increase in but whereas transport allocations Africa’s renewable sector. transport sector commitments is a increased in 2015, they declined in the Total commitments to the African ICT spike or the beginnings of a trend, but water sector. 14 | INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015
Figure 11 Trends in ICA member commitments, 2010-2015 and combined ICA and ACG financing, 2011-2015 ICA members are very substantial there is an underlying trend in the 12 seem to be increasing, growing to players in the water sector, and energy sector of steadily increasing $396m and $506m in the following reported commitments of $3.2bn in investment. ACG data reveal a sharp two years and reaching $616m in 2015 compared with the $3.4bn in increase in energy commitments in 2015. ACG’s ICT commitments are 2014 – substantially less than 2011 and then levelling out at around negligible. commitments of $5bn and $4.7bn in an average of $1.4bn since then. 2013 and 2012 respectively and below But these ICT datasets present only a Energy projects have also done very the average of $3.9bn over the six-year partial picture, and a different set of well in terms of private sector period. Commitments to the water metrics may well be needed to take investments, attracting 97% of private sector from ACG members appear to capital reported in the PPI database in into account some of the now very have been in decline since 2011 too. 2015. These are predominantly large amounts of private investments The apparent decline in water sector investments in South Africa and by telecommunications companies commitments may provide cause for Morocco, perhaps underlining very operating in Africa. Nigeria for concern, especially since this is a strongly the benefits of robust enabling example has received some $6bn of sector that has not stimulated so environments to attract private capital. foreign direct investment flowing into much interest from either China or ICT in the three years up to 2015. the private sector. ICT Total investment in the sector has Total commitments to the ICT sector from sources of finance usually now reached in excess of $38bn by Energy monitored in analysis of some estimates (see page 74). Figure 11 shows that the most striking feature in financing trends in infrastructure investments in Africa Other dynamics in the ICT sector the six years to 2015 is the very high stood at $2.5bn in 2015, slightly more include increased market penetration than the $2.3bn recorded the previous level of energy commitments in 2010. and investment by Chinese year. ICA member data show an Without having the project level detail increase over the last two years in telecommunications firms, notably to confirm an actual figure, ICA commitments while the PPI database, Huawei alongside others, and members’ energy commitments in which in 2010 and 2011 contained an apparently very investable that year were substantially due to substantial amounts of ICT funding, telecommunications tower sector that large North African energy projects now contains very little. is attracting finance from both the and the Eskom Investment Support Project for South Africa. Taking this ICA members’ ICT commitments, private sector and development into account, it may be discerned that which averaged under $200m in 2010- partners. n INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015 | 15
2.3 Financing Trends By Region Figure 12 Total 2015 infrastructure commitments by region and source Of the $83.4bn total financing A $9.3bn reduction in commitments to commitments made in 2015, North North Africa is substantially because Data Note Africa accounted for $14.1bn, the 2014 data include the exceptional Analysing trends by region requires West Africa $15.2bn, Central $8.4bn of investment certificates several years’ analysis of funding from Africa $4.9bn, East Africa $19.3bn, bought by Egyptian citizens to fund a consistent set of sources. Data in Southern Africa $16bn, and RSA the Suez Canal expansion. There were this report to describe total infrastructure commitments contains $11.7bn. Intraregional and pan- also fewer commitments from ACG only two years’ reasonably consistent African commitments amounted members and lower budget allocations data on African national government to $2.2bn. to infrastructure by North African budget allocations so meaningful governments in 2015 compared with trends based on this wider range of Commitments to Central Africa fell sources will yield trends in the future. the previous year. $3.4bn or 41% from $8.3bn in 2014 to A two-year picture is nevertheless $4.9bn in 2015 (Figure 13, below), due A very substantial increase in useful. n to African national government commitments to South Africa from budget allocations declining from $4.9bn to $11.7bn is partly explained Africa also stands to benefit from $4.3bn to $2.2bn and ICA members’ by a successful bidding round in 2015 $2.2bn of announced investments commitments declining from $3.7bn to in the country’s REIPPP programme, from China, which include around $1.3bn. ACG member commitments to which attracted significant private $1.9bn in favour of Transnet for Central Africa increased to $498m in sector investment, including $3.8bn railway projects as well as a China 2015 from $79m in 2014. recorded in the PPI Database. South Development Bank loan of $500m for power utility Eskom’s infrastructure construction programme. Commitments to Southern Africa increased by some $4bn, despite falling African national government budget allocations, largely due to newly announced Chinese investments. These included $4.5bn for the 2,172MW Caculo Cabaça Figure 13 hydroelectric project and $840m for Total commitments by region, 2014- the 750MW Soyo gas power project, 2015 both in Angola, and $1.2bn for the 16 | INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015
Hwange coal power plant in Zimbabwe. Brazil committed $500m to the Lauca hydropower project. Analysis of broadly consistent ICA member data (excluding the exceptional 2013 Power Africa contribution) could provide a better picture of how trends are shaping up in different regions over recent years. Figure 14 shows investments in all regions by ICA members since 2011. There are few discernible trends here. Figure 14 In every region except Southern Total ICA member Africa, the highest commitment in a commitments by single year is more than double the region, 2011-2015 lowest annual commitment during the period analysed. The lowest commitments for most regions were reported in 2011, except for East Africa with $2bn in 2014 and Central Africa with just $1.3bn in 2015. Figure 15 Total ACG A steady trend over recent years has commitments by been the broadening focus of ACG region, 2011-2015 members across the continent. Commitments to Sub-Saharan Africa exceeded those to North Africa in 2015 for the first time since 2011. The group’s expansion across the continent has been particularly noticeable in West Africa, where commitments have increased steadily each year from $219m in 2011 to $1.2bn in 2015. The trend of combined ICA and ACG members’ total commitments appears to show that after a lean year in 2011, allocations to infrastructure returned to what appears to be becoming a Figure 16 normality for this group of an average Total combined ICA member and ACG $21bn a year in the period 2012-15. commitments by Figure 17 shows average annual ICA region, 2011-2015 and ACG member commitments to each region. While more research is needed, per capita spending on infrastructure appears to be highest in Southern Africa (including South Africa) at about double the amount spent in Figure 17 Average annual ICA North Africa. On a regional basis, per and ACG member capita spending is perhaps lowest in East and West Africa. n commitments by region, 2011-2015 INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015 | 17
3. General Trends Olkaria II geothermal power plant – iStock, Byelikova Oksana 3.1 Climate Resilient Infrastructure ICA members participating in the COP21 and the pursuant nationally The SPCR will review climate change first Africa Climate Resilient determined contributions (NDCs), vulnerability assessment and risk Infrastructure Summit in Addis alongside the new Sustainable activities so as to identify key hotspots, Ababa in April 2015 sent some Development Goals (SDGs), were and assess institutional capacity for very clear messages. perhaps the two very big deals to climate resilience co-ordination. This emerge in terms of Africa’s includes mainstreaming climate A senior regional advisor to the World infrastructure development during change development plans, designing Bank called for climate change 2015. As a result, ICA members are climate change adaption and and infrastructure development increasing efforts to promote climate mitigation strategies and establishing programmes to be at the heart of resilience, some of which build upon the national climate change Africa’s development agenda, while an existing activities. Information Management System. EIB loan officer underscored the Similar projects are underway in AfDB and the IFC are active bank’s role in efforts to achieve Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique and participants in the Pilot Programme sustainable development and poverty Niger. for Climate Resilience (PPCR), the reduction by highlighting that it had first programme developed and The World Bank is implementing the set aside €19bn ($21bn) for climate operational under the Strategic Lake Chad Development and Climate action. Climate Fund (SCF), one of two funds Resilience Action Plan. This project, Later in the year, a very substantial (alongside the Clean Technology set to run from 2016-2025, force for developing climate resilient Fund) in the framework of the incorporates aspects of the Lake Chad infrastructure emerged with the UN Climate Investment Funds (CIF). Basin Commission five-year (2013- Climate Change Conference (COP 21). 2017) investment plan. Ultimately, As a part of the PPCR, a national It led to the Paris Agreement in which this plan aims to turn Lake Chad into Strategy Programme for Climate 195 countries adopted the first-ever a sustainable regional hub for Resilience (SPCR) is currently being universal, legally binding global development. implemented in several African climate deal. The agreement, due to countries. In Uganda, the AfDB is In 2015, EIB provided a €8m ($9m) enter into force in 2020, sets out a leading the implementation of a loan to Omnicane, Mauritius’ largest global action plan to put the world on national SPCR – supported by IFC, the sugar company. Work has been track to avoid dangerous climate World Bank and the CIF – that aims to underway over several years on change by limiting global warming to create and enable resilience to climate initiatives to convert waste products well below 2°C. change. from the sugar refining process into 18 | INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015
ICA members’ Respond to Focus on Climate Change ICA members canvassed for Change Action Plan, which aims to support for Africa contributes to climate Infrastructure Financing Trends in accelerate efforts to tackle climate adaption or mitigation. While COP21 did Africa – 2015 described their responses change over the next five years and help not change AFD’s pre-existing focus on to the increased focus on climate developing countries deliver on their climate change, the NDCs provide change. NDCs. tangible targets for support. Climate change considerations are IFC aims to expand its climate As the world’s largest provider of incorporated in JICA’s projects and investments from the current $2.2bn a climate finance, EIB’s outlook will be programmes in various sectors. year to a goal of $3.5bn a year, and lead influenced by COP21 and the bank will Measures against climate change are on leveraging an additional $13bn a year now play a key part in mobilising the largely divided into mitigation and in private sector financing by 2020. As additional resources needed, much of it adaptation measures. Mitigation well as its own financing, the World Bank from the private sector. It has measures are designed to reduce also intends to mobilise $25bn in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or commercial financing for clean energy committed to invest at least 25% of its increase GHG removal from the over the next five years. lending portfolio in low-carbon and atmosphere in several sectors, including climate-resilient growth. Other members have already energy, transport, solid waste AfDB has committed to triple its climate demonstrated a clear commitment to management and forestry, with the aim climate resilient endeavours. One change finance to about $5bn per year of promoting low-carbon societies. significant initiative in this respect is the and to provide $12bn in renewable Adaptation measures may be built into Geothermal Risk Mitigation Facility for energy investments by 2020. The bank’s sectors including transport, water and Eastern Africa, involving the AU on the energy unit, while remaining technology sanitation, and agriculture to make one side and the German Federal agnostic, has upped its estimate on societies more resilient to climate Ministry for Economic Co-operation and climate resilient financing as countries change impacts. Development (BMZ), DFID and the EU- increasingly shift towards renewables AITF via KfW. and the bank expects to support more At WBG, climate change was a big consideration prior to COP21 and the Climate resilience is a significant issue renewable projects. bank is putting much effort into COP22 from a policy point of view for KfW, and Several ICA members and other during which a sharp focus on Africa is it has responded in practice. In 2015 it stakeholders forged new partnerships at expected. Two months before COP21, provided the funding to support South COP21 in Paris. DFID said it would WBG President Jim Yong Kim Africa's strategy to increase the collaborate with the US’ Power Africa announced a major increase in the efficiency and capacity of its freight group’s financing to help countries initiative to expand and leverage transport sector, thereby achieving a combat climate change by building low modal shift from road to rail. This will investments in cleaner energy; support carbon and resilient developments. To reduce CO2 emissions and make an power pools and other interventions to date, about 21% of WBG’s global funding important contribution to protecting the increase cleaner energy power is climate related. Under new plans, that climate. generation and access to power through could rise to 28%, a percentage that the regional integration. Specifically Power group’s infrastructure funding already With France hosting COP21, AFD Africa would collaborate in the DFID-led way exceeds. organised or participated in around 40 Energy Africa access campaign, which events in Paris. Following the pledges focuses on how to rapidly accelerate Already, WBG has announced plans to made at COP21, the AFD Group, which growth in the African household solar help developing countries add 30GW of along with Proparco has already renewable energy – enough to power industry. This partnership will also mobilised $18bn for projects that will 150m homes – to the world’s energy have a positive impact on climate support efforts to advance the full capacity, bring early warning systems to change, is actively helping to boost participation of women in the energy 100m people and develop climate-smart synergies between lenders and to sector; support the regional agriculture investment plans for at least standardise practices and climate development of the geothermal sector, 40 countries – all by 2020. These are related financing tools. AFD is in the and strengthen donor coordination in among a number of ambitious targets the sector by maximising impact of interventions.n process of updating climate strategy laid out in the group’s new Climate based on need to ensure that 30% of products such as ethanol and carbon facility, set to be completed in late for NGOs to increase the resilience of dioxide. As a result, Mauritius’ sugar 2016. people to extreme climate events in industry has become increasingly selected countries in the Sahel and efficient and sustainable, while The UK supports the Building sub-Saharan Africa. BRACED has a creating local jobs, with 50 created in Resilience and Adaptation to Climate focus on creating resilient cities and 2015 alone. Omnicane’s 2015 loan is Extremes and Disasters Programme infrastructure and ensuring access to intended for a ‘carbon burn-out’ (BRACED), which provides funding clean water, alongside its aims to INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING TRENDS IN AFRICA – 2015 | 19
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