Information technology's contribution to labour productivity growth
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Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth
C Crown copyrright © This work is lice ensed under the Creative e Commons Attribution A 3.0 New Zealaand licence. Youu are free to copy, distrib bute, and ada apt the work, as long as you y attribute the work to Sta atistics NZ annd abide by the t other lice ence terms. Please P note you y may not use any deppartmental orr governmen ntal emblem, logo, or coa at of arms in any a way thatt infringes an ny pro ovision of the Flags, Emblems, and Na ames Protec ction Act 1981. Use the w wording 'Sta atistics New Zealand' in your y attributio on, not the Statistics S NZ logo. Lia ability Wh hile all care and a diligence has been ussed in processing, analys sing, and exttracting data andd information n in this publication, Statisstics New Ze ealand gives no warrantyy it is error freee andd will not be liable l for any y loss or dam mage suffered d by the use directly, or i ndirectly, of the info ormation in thhis publicatioon. Cita ation atistics New Zealand Sta Z (20113). Informattion technolo ogy’s contrib bution to labbour pro owth. Availab oductivity gro ble from wwww.stats.govt.nz. BN: 978-0-47 ISB 78-40853-9 (o online) Pubblished in October O 2013 3 by Sta atistics New Zealand Z Tattauranga Aottearoa Weellington, New w Zealand Contact atistics New Zealand Sta Z Information Cen tre: info@sta ats.govt.nz Phoone toll-free 0508 525 5225 Phoone internatioonal +64 4 931 9 4610 ww ww.stats.govt.nz
Contents List of table es and figu ures..................................................................................................... 4 1 Purpose e and summ mary.................................................................................................... 6 Purpose ............................................................................................................................. 6 Summarry ........................................................................................................................... 6 2 Introduc ction ..................................................................................................................... 7 Previouss research and context .......................................................................................... 7 Overview w of approac ch ....................................................................................................... 7 Outline of o this paperr .......................................................................................................... 8 3 Methodo ology .................................................................................................................... 9 The grow wth accountiing framewo ork ................................................................................... 9 Output ............................................................................................................................. 10 nput .................................................................................................................... 10 Labour in IT capita al services in ndex .................................................................................................. 10 Factor in nput weights s ........................................................................................................ 13 Industry coverage ............................................................................................................ 14 4 Results ........................................................................................................................... 15 IT’s conttribution to measured-se m ector labour productivity y growth ................................... 15 Estimate es for broad industry gro oups and ind dustries ...................................................... 17 Industrie es in detail ........................................................................................................... 22 5 Explainiing IT capital’s contrib bution ............................................................................ 27 User cossts ....................................................................................................................... 27 Productivve capital sttocks ................................................................................................. 30 6 Comparring estimattes of IT’s c contribution n to labour productivitty .......................... 31 Defining IT ....................................................................................................................... 31 Defining capital................................................................................................................ 31 Deflatorss .......................................................................................................................... 32 Specifyin ng the user-cost formula a .................................................................................... 33 7 Summarry ........................................................................................................................ 36 Future work w ..................................................................................................................... 36 References s.......................................................................................................................... 37 Appendix............................................................................................................................. 38 3
List of ttables and fig gures List of tab bles 4 Results ........................................................................................................................... 15 1 Growthh accounting g for labour productivity, measured sector, and former mea asured sector, 1978–2012 .......................................................................................................... 16 2 Growth h accounting g for labour productivity using qualitty-adjusted llabour inputs, 1999– 2012 ................................................................................................................................ 17 3 Growth g for labour productivity, by broad in h accounting ndustry grouup and indus stry, average annual grow wth rates, 19978–2011 ...................................................................... 18 h accounting 4 Growth g for labour productivity, by broad in ndustry grouup and indus stry, average annual grow wth rates, 19996–2011 ...................................................................... 19 5 Income e shares and d input grow wth, by broad d industry grroup and inddustry, 1996 6–201121 6 Outputts and inputs s, selected i ndustries, average a annual growth rrates, by cyc cle ..... 24 5 Explainiing IT capital’s contrib bution ............................................................................ 27 7 Deprecciation rates s for selected d assets, 19 978–2011 ................................................... 29 6 Comparring estimattes of IT’s c contribution n to labour productivitty .......................... 31 8 Sensitiivity of the contribution c o of IT to labour productiv vity under altternative user-cost formula specification s ns, by broad d industry gro oup and industry, averaage annual growth, g 2008–11 .......................................................................................................................... 34 List of figures 4 Results ........................................................................................................................... 15 1 Measu ured-sector contributions c s to labour productivity p growth, g annuual percenta age change ............................................................................................................................ 15 ation, media 2 Informa a, and teleco ommunicatio ons contributions to laboour productiv vity growth, average a annnual percenttage change e ................................................................. 22 3 Financce and insura ance contrib butions to labour produc ctivity growthh, average annual a percentaage change ......................................................................................................... 23 4 Professional, scien ntific, and te echnical serv vices contrib butions to labbour produc ctivity growth, average a annnual percenttage change e ................................................................. 23 5 IT capiital income shares, s sele ected industrries ............................................................. 25 6 Ratio of o IT capital income to n non-IT capita al income, se elected induustries ................... 26 5 Explainiing IT capital’s contrib bution ............................................................................ 27 7 Compu uter rental price per doll ar of capitall services, selected induustries ................... 28 8 Softwa are rental price per dolla ar of capital services, s selected indusstries .................... 28 9 Asset price p indexe es, selected assets .......................................................................... 29 10 IT pro oportion of to otal product ive capital stock, s selected industriees .......................... 30 6 Comparring estimattes of IT’s c n to labour productivitty .......................... 31 contribution 11 IT cap pital measurres, annual percentage change for finance andd insurance............ 32 4
12 Economy-wide capital services, OECD estimates using different deflators............ 33 7 Summary .................................................................................................................... 36 13 Information media, and telecommunications contributions to labour productivity growth, including communications equipment, average annual growth rates.............. 38 5
1 Purpose an nd sum mmary Purpose Growth in in nformation teechnology (IIT) is considdered a key driver for proroductivity grrowth in many counttries. Howevver, New Zea aland has litttle information on the eextent to which IT has benefite ed labour prroductivity, e either at the measured sector s or inddustry level. Information technology’s contributio on to labourr productivityy growth asssesses the role r of IT pening grow capital deep wth on labourr productivityy and fills an n informationn gap in understandiing New Zeaaland’s prodductivity perfformance. Summa ary Contribution ns of IT capital deepenin ng to labourr productivity y growth aree presented for New Zealand’s in ndustries and the measu ured sector for 1978–20 011. Figuress are derived d using the standard d growth acccounting fra amework. Most industtries showedd double-diggit growth in IT capital se ervices. Howwever, only a handful of in ndustries be enefited from m this growthh, in terms of o labour prooductivity. We found sttrong contrib butions of IT T capital dee epening to thhe labour pro roductivity grrowth of the informattion, media, and telecom mmunication ns; finance and a insurancce services; and professiona al, scientific, and techniccal services industries. IT capital de eepening co ontributions w e measured sector, acco were also prresent in the ounting for 0.5 percent growth a year in labbour producttivity for 1996–2012 eveen though IT T comprises a small sharre of total inccome. 6
2 Introd duction n This chapteer outlines prrevious rese earch about information technology’’s (IT) role in n productivity and introdu uces the frammework for the t research h reported heere. T is considered a key drriver for prod Growth in IT ductivity grow wth in counttries. Interna ational studies have shown larg ge effects in n the United States, with h smaller (buut still signifiicant) contribution ns to producttivity in Canaada (Khan & Santos, 20 002) and Euurope (Van Ark,A Inklaar, & McGuckan, M 2003). 2 Wei a and Zhao (20 012) found IT contributeed approxim mately 0.65 percennt a year to Australia’s A la abour productivity growtth for 1996––2010. Previou us resea arch and d conte ext There has been b little research into the role of IT T on producctivity in New w Zealand, with w the exception of Engelbrecht and Xaya avong (2006 6, 2007). Enggelbrecht annd Xayavong g (2007) use a growtth accounting frameworkk on industrry-level data from 1988––2003. They y focus on informatiion and com mmunicationss technology y (ICT), whic ch covers booth IT and communications techno ology. ICT intensitty is based on o the propo ortion of inte ermediate inputs that aree ICT-relateed. ICT- intensive ind dustries werre found to h have higher multifactor productivity growth, and d distinct patterns in the t growth contributions c s, relative to non-ICT inttensive induustries. Compared with other countries, c En ngelbrecht a and Xayavon ng (2007) suuggest that ““NZ seems tot be one of the fe ew countries s so far to s how positive e productivitty impacts frrom ICT whe en industry leve el data are employed” e ( 2007, p22). The study reeported here e draws on iimprovemen nts to service-industry ooutput measureme ent, capital-s services meaasurement for f IT and no on-IT assetss, industry-le evel labour inputts estimatess, and metho ods for allocating entreppreneurial inccome to labour and capital deve eloped since e Engelbrechht and Xayaavong’s (200 07) study. This paper assesses a IT T’s contributiion to labourr productivity y growth in N New Zealan nd, by industry, forr 1978–20111. 1 This perio 0F od covers significant changes in IT,, in relation to software, ne etworking ca apabilities, m media, storage, and proc cessing. Maainframes saat alongside mini-compute m ers during thhe 1970s. Th he Apple II (1977), ( IBM personal co omputer running MS-DOS (1981 1), and Apple e Macintosh h (1984) marked the advvent of perso onal computers. Software ca apabilities w were enhance ed following the releasee of Microsoft Windows (1985, and ve ersion 3.0 in 1990). The World Wide e Web’s devvelopment in n 1990 heralded ye et another ne ew era for ap pplying IT. Overvie ew of ap pproach h This paper’ss approach is based on the growth accounting framework. This is the same s approach th he Australian n Bureau of Statistics (A ABS) uses to o determine the contribu ution of 1 Communica ations capital is s not available e as a separatte asset class but is part of oother asset classes, the extent to whicch varies acros ss industries. For the inform mation, media, and telecomm munications inndustry it is part of the electronic e equipment asset class, as well as other cons struction. Whille other industtries may have commun nications capittal, it is likely tto be a very sm mall part of the e total electronnic equipmentt asset class (which covers c medicaal and surgicall equipment, broadcasters, b transmitters, rreceivers, and d other telecommuniccation equipment, optical an nd photograph hic equipment, and photocoppiers). Given the t challenges in identifying comparable com mmunications capital across s industries, thhis paper focus ses on IT rather than ICCT. 7
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth IT capital deepening (Wei and Zhao, 2012), and is consistent with the underlying methodology in New Zealand’s official productivity statistics series. 2 1F The focus is on the use of IT capital rather than the production of IT services. Official productivity statistics show the role of capital inputs on labour productivity, with the role of IT subsumed within capital input’s contribution. The analysis reported in this paper extends the official framework to determine the contribution of IT and non-IT capital on labour productivity. Capital inputs are measured as the flow of capital services from the productive capital stock. This accounts for both the volume of IT capital and the associated capital costs that are used to weight the IT assets. This is important for understanding the contribution of IT to labour productivity given the sharp price decline in IT capital and its high rate of depreciation, which are reflected in capital costs. 3 2F IT covers computers and software for all industries. The Internet’s role is not assessed. Internet usage may contribute to gross output, for example by providing a new mechanism for selling goods and services, but will also form part of intermediate consumption. Therefore, the benefits of the Internet may form part of value added and multifactor productivity but cannot be readily identified. Outline of this paper This paper presents: the methodology for deriving contributions of IT to labour productivity growth estimates from the growth accounting approach an analysis of underlying capital volume and user cost data, to gain further insight into the estimated contributions commentary on comparing estimates across countries, to aid interpretation. The paper concludes that in a number of industries labour productivity has strongly benefited from IT capital growth, with these effects also reflected in measured-sector labour productivity growth. 2 The methodology employed in this paper could be readily applied to determine the contributions of other types of capital to labour productivity (eg natural resources or research and development). 3 The capital services approach is also preferable to using raw IT investment data, which may overstate the effect on labour productivity, given the need to replace IT on a more-frequent basis than other fixed assets. 8
3 Meth hodolog gy This section n presents th he methodollogy used to o determine the contribuution of IT to o labour productivity growth amoong New Ze ealand’s induustries. The gro owth accountin ng frame ework The growth accounting framework is used to assess the efffect of IT onn labour productivity. h the industrry-level prod Starting with duction function, which exhibits e connstant returns to scale, growtth in output volumes (defined as value added d, which is ggross outputt less intermediatee consumptiion) can be decompose ed into the coontributions of IT (compputers and softwarre) ,, , no on-IT capital ,, , labo our , , and multifactor productivity (MFP) : ∆lln , ∆ ln , , ∆ ln ,, ,, ∆ ln ,, ,, ∆ ln , utions of IT, non-IT capiital, and labo The contribu our to outpu ut depend onn weights ,, , ,, , and d ,, , as well w as volum mes ,, , ,, , and , respective vely. This approa ach acknowledges that IIT possesse es separate characterist c tics to non-IT T capital, as it feeds into the prod duction functtion as a dis stinct factor input. In otheer words, th he heterogeneity between IT and non--IT capital is s allowed forr. MFP is speecified as disembodied technological change . on can be re This equatio earranged to s labour prooductivity could be o show that an industry’s determined by growth in n the (weigh hted) amounnt of IT and non-IT n capita tal available per hour (capita al deepening g) and MFP:: ,, ,. ∆ln , ∆ ln ,, ∆ln ,, ∆ln , , The contribuution to labo our productivvity depends s on volume es of IT and non-IT capittal, as well as weig ghts that refllect the relattive importance of thesee assets in tthe productio on process. Thhis approach h allows the contribution n of IT capita al deepeningg to be calcu ulated for each ind dustry in eacch year, but does not ne ecessarily shhow that IT ccapital deep pening is, on average,, associated d with higherr labour prod ductivity acro oss industriees. IT growth may m also ben nefit MFP, byy enabling new n business models orr complemen ntarities between IT and non-IT capital or la abour, but th his is not identified in thee growth acc counting framework. This approaach follows the same meethod used in official pro oductivity sta tatistics for measuring the t contributtions to labo our productiv vity, except for having sseparate cap pital services ind dexes for IT and non-IT capital and associated weights. 9
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth Growth accounting assumptions The growth accounting approach relies on certain assumptions to determine MFP growth. The OECD (2011) outlines the key issues: Growth accounting estimates show correlation, not causation (eg labour productivity growth could lead to growth in IT capital deepening). Assumptions of perfect competition in all markets, constant returns to scale, and full mobility of labour and capital are strong and not well tested. Increasing returns-to- scale are more than a possibility when assessing the role of IT, but the extent to which this occurs is not known. Firms are assumed to be price takers and to maximise profits. There are no adjustment costs or temporary fluctuations in output during the period in which new inputs are integrated into the production process. Variable capacity utilisation of capital is not accounted for (see the capacity utilisation section for more discussion). All measurement errors are subsumed within the MFP residual. Any externalities related to factors of production are also included in MFP, and any such externalities will lead to underestimating the production factor’s contribution. There is also the assumption of complete asset coverage. If there are non-IT assets that are not measured then the proportion of capital cost attributable to IT will be overstated, and the contribution of IT to labour productivity will also be overstated. The next sections define output and labour input, and describe how the IT capital services index and factor weights are derived. Output Output is defined as chain-volume value added, sourced from the national accounts. Aggregate and industry value-added data are chained Laspeyres volume indexes, re- expressed as indexes with a base value of 1000. The base year is the March 1978 year for most industries and the March 1996 year for the measured sector and some service industries. Labour input At the industry level, labour input is measured as the sum of industry hours paid. This is a composite series that uses data from the Linked-Employee-Employer Dataset (LEED), Household Labour Force Survey, Quarterly Employment Survey, and the Business Demography Database. Hours worked are often preferred to hours paid, in order to better reflect the actual amount of time spent contributing to production. However, hours paid data are more robust at the industry level. Industry-level hours-paid data are unadjusted for workforce composition, which means that hours paid for each worker are treated equally regardless of skill level. A composition-adjusted labour input series is available for the measured sector. IT capital services index The starting point for measuring IT capital services is to construct productive capital stocks using the perpetual inventory method (PIM). Assumptions are required for the rate 10
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth of efficiency reduction and for asset lives when using the PIM. 4 Software and computers 3F have an efficiency reduction parameter value of 1 (which assumes no decline in efficiency over time) and a mean asset life of four years (which is the lowest of all assets and leads to high depreciation rates). These assumptions are applied uniformly across industries for computers and software. 5 4F The efficiency units of assets with different lives are aggregated to determine the weighted average of the age-efficiency units, which is multiplied with gross fixed capital formation to derive the productive capital stock. 6 5F The IT capital services index is a Törnqvist aggregate index of computers and software for all industries. The computers asset class covers all computing equipment, including personal computers, networking systems, scanners, printers, receivers, and word processors. Computer software includes computer programs, program descriptions, and supporting materials for both systems and applications software. Purchased software and software developed on own account are included, if the expenditure is large. 7 Additional 6F IT capital may be embodied in other capital-asset classes, but this cannot be readily identified nor is the extent of this known. Capital is allocated to industries by ownership. Some industries may benefit from using IT or non-IT capital owned by other industries if it is hired out. If an industry sells an asset to another and rents it back, the output of the renting industry stays the same, but its intermediate consumption leads to a fall in its value added. However, capital inputs have also fallen, so capital productivity is potentially unchanged. The opposite effect may arise for the industry that now owns the asset, so aggregate capital productivity might remain unchanged. However, the contribution of IT capital deepening to labour productivity growth may be understated for an industry that rents its IT (because some effects will be subsumed within intermediate consumption). 4 In this analysis, productive capital stock was sourced directly from the national accounts; sensitivity analysis on the parameters underlying the PIM was not done. 5 The Australian Bureau of Statistics assumes a value of 0.5 for each of these assets, and an asset life of 2.5 years for computer software. A value of 0.5 reflects an assumption of an even distribution of efficiency decline over time. The efficiency reduction parameter forms part of the hyperbolic age- efficiency equation: M A E M bA where E = the efficiency of the asset at period t M = the asset life as for an assumed retirement distribution A = the age of the asset of the given vintage at period t b = the efficiency reduction parameter. 6 For the years in which the demand and supply estimates have yet to be reconciled through supply-use balancing, economy-wide GFKF data by asset type and sector are obtained from quarterly GDP estimates. Where specific information is not yet available, industry and market group allocations are made according to the proportions from the latest balanced year. Source: Statistics NZ (2013a) Productivity Statistics: Sources and Methods. 7 Major expenditure on the purchase, development, or extension of computer databases that are expected to be used for more than one year, whether marketed or not, are also included in principle. However, given the present data sources, it is not possible to distinguish between software and databases developed on contract or on own account, so it is not known to what extent databases are included. The costs of collecting and capturing the information stored in databases are excluded. Source: Statistics NZ (2013b) Measuring Capital Stock Manual. 11
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth Movements in the productive capital stock for both computers and software are each weighted by their respective two-period shares of capital income to derive the IT capital services index: ,, ,, ,, ,, ,, 1 ,, ,, ,, ,, ,, 2 ∑ ,, ,, ∑ ,, ,, where = volume measure of the flow of IT capital services from IT capital stock in industry i ,, in period t , , = volume measure of the productive capital stock j for each type of IT asset in industry i in period t , , = two-period share of capital cost of using IT asset j in industry i in period t. Note: the two-period shares of capital costs for all IT assets sum to unity in a given period , , = user cost (rental price) per dollar of capital services from capital stock j for each type of IT capital in industry i in period t The user cost, the price at which the owners of capital are considered to charge themselves, is unobservable and is imputed as: ,, ,, ,, ,, , where ,, = the asset price index of asset j in industry i in period t ,, = the rate of economic depreciation of asset j in industry i in period t = the real exogenous rate of return (set at 4 percent) ,, = the average non-income tax rate on production for industry i in period t The non-IT productive capital-stock and capital-services series are constructed in the same manner as that for IT capital (but with different assumptions in applying the PIM, such as asset lives and efficiency reduction parameters). They are aggregated over all other remaining assets derived through the PIM, along with land and inventories. Capacity utilisation The level and growth rate of capacity utilisation is implicitly assumed to be the same for IT and non-IT assets. Variations in capacity utilisation can have marked effects on capital services, and to a lesser extent on MFP (Tipper & Warmke, 2012). Adjusting for variable 12
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth capacity utilisation involves applying a rate of capacity utilisation to productive capital- stock data. Level differences in capacity utilisation across IT and non-IT assets will affect capital services through productive capital stocks. Factor input weights (which are based on proportions of user costs) will also be affected. In the long term, capital services growth is likely to be similar whether adjusted for capacity utilisation or not, but there will be persistent differences in the income share weights. This is because the IT and non-IT income shares depend on the level of productive capital stock. The income share effect is not mitigated by presenting productivity estimates over growth cycles, but the capital service growth effect is. The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s capacity utilisation series, which is the most appropriate data source available for capacity utilisation adjustment, does not contain an appropriate asset dimension. Consequently, this measurement issue cannot be assessed. Data are presented over growth cycles (defined as ‘peak-to-peak’) in order to account for fluctuations in capacity utilisation. Factor input weights In the standard approach to measuring MFP, the factor weight for capital (used to combine labour and capital to derive total inputs) does not have an asset dimension. Capital income needs to be apportioned between IT and non-IT capital in order to aggregate the two capital-services indexes along with labour, and to determine the contributions of IT and non-IT capital to labour productivity. This is achieved by using capital-cost shares, which can be used under the assumption of perfect competition – where capital costs exhaust capital income. Factor input weights represent the marginal effect of a percentage increase in an input on value added (ie are interpreted as output elasticities). Total capital income , and labour income , in each industry i for each period t are derived as: , , , , , , , , where , = gross operating surplus in industry i in period t , = working proprietors' income in industry i allocated to capital in period t , = net taxes on production and imports allocated to capital in industry i in period t = compensation of employees in industry i in period t , = working proprietors' income in industry i in period t allocated to labour , = net taxes on production and imports allocated to labour in industry i in period t Total industry capital income is then proportionately allocated to IT and non-IT, using IT and non-IT capital-cost shares in industry total income from flows of capital services as weights: 13
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth ∑ ,, ,, ,, , ∑ ,, ,, ∑ ,, ,, ∑ ,, ,, ,, , ∑ ,, ,, ∑ ,, ,, Factor input weights are then calculated as: ,, ,, , ,, ,, , , ,, , Where , ,, ,, , . The factor weights (labour , , , IT , , , and non-IT , , ) sum to unity, whether for calculating industry or aggregate combined-inputs indexes, because the identity , , holds. Also, the sum of the IT and non-IT weights equals the capital weight in the standard productivity framework. The weights are calculated as two-period shares, and are applied exponentially to the relevant input index to calculate a Törnqvist index of total inputs. Industry coverage Productivity statistics are available for 25 ‘market-based’ industries that cover the measured sector, and for the health care and social assistance, and education and training industries. Productivity data are available from 1978 for 20 industries, and from 1996 for a further five market-based industries. This paper reports on analysis for each industry in the measured sector, the three broad industry groups within the measured sector, and for the measured sector. IT contributions to labour productivity growth in the health and education industries are likely to be minimal, as non-residential buildings dominate the productive capital stocks for these industries and the total capital weights are among the lowest of all industries. 14
4 Resu ults This section n presents thhe contributiions of IT to labour prod ductivity; firsst for the measured sector, then n by broad in ndustry grou up and indus stry, and then focuses oon the IT contribution ns for selecte ed industriess. IT’s con ntributio on to me easured d-sectorr labourr produc ctivity growth Under the growth g accouunting frameework, labou ur productivity growth caan be decom mposed into contribu utions from IT capital de eepening, no on-IT capital deepening , and MFP. Figure 1 shoows that IT contribution s were refle ected in meaasured-sectoor labour productivity. For 1996–22012, meassured-sectorr labour prod ductivity incrreased 1.5 percent p T capital dee annually. IT epening was the largest driver (contributing 0.5 percent a year), along with MFP M ercent a yearr), followed by non-IT ca (0.5 pe apital deepeening (0.4 peercent a year). The IT contributio ons were driiven by growwth in the vo olume of IT ccapital services (up 15.0 percennt annually) while w the IT capital inco ome weight averaged a 4.88 percent off total income. 8 7F Figure 1 1 Measured-sector contributions to labour productivity growth, annual percentage change IT capital de eepening alsso contribute ed strongly to t labour pro oductivity grrowth among g the former measured-secto or industries from 1978 to t 1996. Con ntributions ro rose from 0.1 percent in 1981 to 0.9 percent p in 19987 but fell back b to 0.1 percent by 11996. As witth the measured sector, s contrributions of I T capital de eepening inc creased, to re reach 0.6 pe ercent in 2000 and re emain relativ vely stable thhereafter. Average A conttributions weere 0.5 percent a year for 20000–11. Tablee 1 presentss the contrib butions to lab bour product ctivity growth h for the measured sector s and foormer measu ured sector across grow wth cycles. 8 Labour incom me averaged 57.4 percent a and non-IT ca apital income 37.7 3 percent. 15
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth Table 1 1 Growth accounting for labour productivity, measured sector and former measured sector, 1978–2012 Growth accounting for labour productivity, measured sector, and former measured sector 1978–2012 Contribution Contribution Labour of non-IT of IT capital MFP productivity capital deepening deepening Sector Cycle(1) Percent Measured 1997–00 2.8 0.5 0.5 1.7 (2) sector 2000–08 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 2008–12 0.7 0.5 0.6 -0.4 1996–2012 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 Former 1978–82 2.1 0.1 0.4 1.6 measured 1982–85 1.3 0.4 1.3 -0.3 (3) sector 1985–90 2.7 0.7 1.7 0.3 1990–97 2.6 0.3 0.3 2.0 1997–00 3.3 0.5 0.6 2.1 2000–08 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 2008–12 1.2 0.5 0.9 -0.3 1996–2012 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 1978–2012 2.0 0.4 0.7 0.9 1. 1978–82 and 2008–12 are incomplete cycles. 2. Measured sector includes: agriculture, forestry, and fishing; mining; manufacturing; electricity, gas, water, and waste services; wholesale trade; retail trade; accommodation and food services; transport, postal, and warehousing; information, media, and telecommunications; finance and insurance; rental, hiring, and real estate services; professional, scientific, and technical services; administrative and support services; arts and recreation services; and other services. Series available from 1996. 3. Former measured sector includes: agriculture, forestry, and fishing; mining; manufacturing; electricity, gas, water, and waste services; wholesale trade; retail trade; accommodation and food services; transport, postal, and warehousing; information media and telecommunications; finance and insurance; and arts and recreation. Series available from 1978. Accounting for workforce composition IT can be related to skills in two distinct ways. First, IT may be skills-replacing; lower- skilled workers can do the same job as higher-skilled workers, thereby reducing the returns for higher skills. An example is an automated stock control system in a warehouse. Second, IT may also be skills-complementing and increase the returns for higher skills. This might happen in a research setting, where IT enables a highly-skilled worker to access and integrate more information into their work. Estimates of IT’s contribution may therefore be affected by the industry labour-input measures not reflecting workforce composition. Omitting changes in labour quality will lead to an upwards bias in IT’s contribution if highly skilled workers are required to effectively utilise IT. The strong contributions from IT capital deepening hold after adjusting for workforce composition. Estimates of the contribution of IT capital deepening, using quality-adjusted labour inputs, are similar to those presented in figure 1. 9 But contributions from non-IT 8F 9 This finding is similar to O’Mahony and Vecchi (2005) who find that accounting for labour quality had little impact on estimates of IT’s contribution to MFP. 16
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth capital deepening are more sensitive to the labour input measure, due to the higher income share weight for non-IT capital services. Table 2 presents the contributions to labour productivity growth using quality-adjusted labour inputs. Figures in parentheses represent the difference in percentage points from the main estimates which are unadjusted for workforce composition. Table 2 2 Growth accounting for labour productivity using quality-adjusted labour inputs, 1999–2012 Growth accounting for labour productivity using quality-adjusted labour inputs, measured sector 1999–2012 Labour productivity Contribution of IT Contribution of non-IT (composition- MFP capital deepening capital deepening Year adjusted) 1999 0.1 (-1.0) 0.5 (0.0) 0.3 (-0.4) -0.8 (-0.6) 2000 4.2 (-1.0) 0.6 (0.0) -0.2 (-0.4) 3.8 (-0.6) 2001 0.5 (-0.7) 0.5 (0.0) -0.1 (-0.3) 0.0 (-0.4) 2002 1.0 (-0.1) 0.6 (0.0) -0.1 (0.0) 0.5 (0.0) 2003 1.3 (-0.2) 0.4 (0.0) -0.5 (-0.1) 1.4 (-0.1) 2004 0.5 (-0.5) 0.6 (0.0) 0.1 (-0.2) -0.2 (-0.3) 2005 1.6 (0.4) 0.5 (0.0) 0.5 (0.1) 0.6 (0.2) 2006 2.0 (0.1) 0.7 (0.0) 0.7 (0.0) 0.6 (0.0) 2007 1.3 (0.4) 0.5 (0.0) 0.5 (0.2) 0.3 (0.2) 2008 0.9 (-0.7) 0.4 (0.0) 0.4 (-0.3) 0.1 (-0.4) 2009 -1.8 (0.4) 0.4 (0.0) 1.4 (0.1) -3.5 (0.2) 2010 2.7 (-1.0) 0.6 (0.0) 1.1 (-0.4) 1.0 (-0.5) 2011 0.2 (-0.3) 0.5 (0.0) -0.2 (-0.1) -0.1 (-0.2) 2012 1.0 (0.1) 0.5 (0.0) -0.2 (0.0) 0.7 (0.1) Note: Data are available from 1998 as workforce composition data is sourced from the New Zealand Income Survey (NZIS). The composition-adjusted series is only available for the measured sector as the NZIS is not stratified by industry. Estimates for broad industry groups and industries Contributions of IT capital deepening to labour productivity growth were strongest for service industries, followed by goods-producing industries, and finally primary industries. As table 3 shows, within these broad groups IT capital deepening contributions to labour productivity growth varied across industries. For 1978–2011, the strongest contributions were in the information, media, and telecommunications industry and finance and insurance. Sizeable IT capital deepening contributions were observed for printing; and transport equipment, machinery, and equipment manufacturing; and for both wholesale trade and retail trade. Labour productivity in electricity, gas, water, and waste services benefited from IT capital deepening in the 1990s, leading to a contribution of 0.3 percentage points a year for 1978–2011. In the latest incomplete cycle (2008–11), printing; transport equipment, machinery, and equipment manufacturing; retail trade; and administrative and support services showed contributions of IT capital deepening to labour productivity of 0.5 percent a year or above. 17
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth Primary industries showed the lowest contribution of IT capital deepening for 1978–2011. MFP provided the main contributions for the agricultural industries and non-IT capital for mining. This result is perhaps not surprising given the nature of these industries and the dominance of other assets in their capital stocks (eg land and inventories for agriculture). Industries with higher contributions from IT capital deepening for 1978–2011 also tended to have higher contributions for 1996–2011 (see tables 3 and 4). Table 4 also includes growth accounting estimates for the additional service industries that are measured from 1996. Information, media, and telecommunications, finance and insurance, and professional, scientific, and technical services were the industries with the highest contributions to labour productivity growth from IT capital deepening for 1996–2011. IT capital deepening was the highest contributor to labour productivity for administrative and support services, and arts and recreation, for 1996–2011. IT capital deepening provided higher contributions than non-IT capital deepening for other services during this time. Table 3 3 Growth accounting for labour productivity, by broad industry group and industry, average annual growth rates, 1978–2011 Growth accounting for labour productivity, by broad industry group and industry, average annual growth rates 1978–2011 Contribution Contribution Labour of non-IT of IT capital MFP productivity capital deepening deepening Industry Percent Primary industries 3.3 0.1 1.3 1.9 Agriculture, forestry, and fishing 3.2 0.1 0.8 2.3 Agriculture 3.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 Forestry and fishing, and services to 2.9 0.1 1.1 1.7 agriculture, forestry, and fishing Mining 2.1 0.1 2.7 -0.7 Goods-producing industries 1.4 0.2 0.9 0.3 Manufacturing 1.6 0.3 1.0 0.3 Food, beverage, and tobacco 1.8 0.2 1.0 0.6 product manufacturing Textile, leather, clothing, and 2.4 0.2 0.6 1.6 footwear manufacturing Wood and paper products 2.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 manufacturing Printing 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Petroleum, chemical, polymer, and 2.1 0.3 1.6 0.2 rubber product manufacturing Non-metallic mineral product 1.8 0.2 1.1 0.6 manufacturing Metal product manufacturing 0.6 0.2 0.7 -0.3 Transport equipment, machinery, 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 and equipment manufacturing Furniture and other manufacturing 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 Electricity, gas, water, and waste 2.2 0.3 1.7 0.2 services 18
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth Contribution Contribution Labour of non-IT of IT capital MFP productivity capital deepening deepening Industry Percent Construction 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 (1) Service industries 2.2 0.7 0.4 1.1 Wholesale trade 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.6 Retail trade 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 Accommodation and food services -1.2 0.1 0.2 -1.5 Transport, postal, and warehousing 3.5 0.2 0.2 3.1 Information, media, and 5.6 1.4 1.8 2.2 telecommunications Finance and insurance 2.8 1.5 0.2 1.1 1. Service industries include: wholesale trade; retail trade; accommodation and food services; transport, postal, and warehousing; information media and telecommunications; finance and insurance; and arts and recreation. Table 4 4 Growth accounting for labour productivity, by broad industry group and industry, average annual growth rates, 1996–2011 Growth accounting for labour productivity, by broad industry group and industry, average annual growth rates 1996–2011 Contribution Contribution Labour of non-IT of IT capital MFP productivity capital deepening deepening Industry Percent Primary industries 1.9 0.1 1.4 0.4 Agriculture, forestry, and fishing 1.8 0.1 0.9 0.8 Agriculture 1.9 0.1 0.7 1.1 Forestry and fishing, and services to -0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.7 agriculture, forestry, and fishing Mining -0.3 0.1 1.5 -1.8 Goods-producing industries 1.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 Manufacturing 1.7 0.3 0.5 0.8 Food, beverage, and tobacco 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 product manufacturing Textile, leather, clothing, and 2.9 0.3 0.5 2.1 footwear manufacturing Wood and paper products 2.7 0.3 0.8 1.6 manufacturing Printing 0.3 0.6 0.5 -0.8 Petroleum, chemical, polymer, and 3.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 rubber product manufacturing Non-metallic mineral product 1.6 0.2 1.4 -0.1 manufacturing 19
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth Contribution Contribution Labour of non-IT of IT capital MFP productivity capital deepening deepening Industry Percent Metal product manufacturing 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.5 Transport equipment, machinery, 1.9 0.7 0.2 1.0 and equipment manufacturing Furniture and other manufacturing 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.8 Electricity, gas, water, and waste -0.4 0.3 1.7 -2.4 services Construction 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.6 Service industries (measured (1) 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.7 sector) Service industries (former measured (2) 2.2 0.8 0.5 1.0 sector) Wholesale trade 2.0 0.6 -0.2 1.7 Retail trade 1.8 0.5 0.2 1.1 Accommodation and food services -0.5 0.1 0.4 -1.0 Transport, postal, and warehousing 1.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 Information, media, and 5.1 1.4 1.9 1.7 telecommunications Finance and insurance 3.7 1.8 0.2 1.6 Rental, hiring, and real estate 2.4 0.1 1.1 1.2 services Professional, scientific, and 0.2 0.9 0.0 -0.7 technical services Administrative and support services -2.2 0.4 -0.1 -2.5 Arts and recreation services -0.6 0.3 0.2 -1.1 Other services 2.6 0.3 0.2 2.1 1. Service industries (measured sector) include: wholesale trade; retail trade; accommodation and food services; transport, postal, and warehousing; information, media, and telecommunications; finance and insurance; rental, hiring, and real estate services; professional, scientific, and technical services; administrative and support services; arts and recreation services; and other services. 2. Service industries (former measured sector) include: wholesale trade; retail trade; accommodation and food services; transport, postal, and warehousing; information, media, and telecommunications; finance and insurance; and arts and recreation services. Contributions of IT capital deepening were driven by growth in capital services as income shares were relatively low. Although similar growth in capital services was observed across industries, income shares were remarkably low (or even non-existent) for some industries (see table 5). 20
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth Table 5 5 Income shares and input growth, by broad industry group and industry, 1996–2011 Income shares and input growth, by broad industry group and industry 1996–2011 Average income Average annual input growth share IT Non-IT IT Non-IT Labour Industry Proportion Percent Primary industries 0.01 0.53 14.7 2.1 -0.6 Agriculture, forestry, and fishing 0.01 0.56 13.1 2.5 1.7 Agriculture 0.00 0.47 14.8 1.1 -0.8 Forestry and fishing, and services to 0.00 0.43 17.3 0.2 -1.3 agriculture, forestry, and fishing Mining 0.01 0.81 15.6 3.7 1.9 Goods-producing industries 0.02 0.40 13.0 1.7 0.1 Manufacturing 0.02 0.39 12.4 0.4 -1.0 Food, beverage, and tobacco product 0.01 0.41 12.9 2.0 0.7 manufacturing Textile, leather, clothing, and footwear 0.02 0.27 9.9 -3.8 -5.3 manufacturing Wood and paper products 0.02 0.37 12.4 0.2 -1.7 manufacturing Printing 0.04 0.32 15.1 -0.5 -2.1 Petroleum, chemical, polymer, and 0.02 0.50 8.1 -1.0 -2.4 rubber product manufacturing Non-metallic mineral product 0.02 0.48 15.7 2.5 -0.5 manufacturing Metal product manufacturing 0.02 0.36 13.6 -0.9 -0.5 Transport equipment, machinery, and 0.05 0.26 15.3 0.0 -0.9 equipment manufacturing Furniture and other manufacturing 0.02 0.24 12.5 -1.5 -2.7 Electricity, gas, water, and waste 0.03 0.79 13.3 4.0 1.7 services Construction 0.01 0.22 20.7 2.7 2.6 (1) Service industries (measured sector) 0.05 0.35 15.0 2.4 1.7 Service industries (former measured (1) 0.06 0.34 14.3 2.4 1.0 sector) Wholesale trade 0.04 0.33 14.0 -0.3 0.4 Retail trade 0.04 0.28 15.9 1.7 1.2 Accommodation and food services 0.01 0.24 16.1 3.8 2.3 Transport, postal, and warehousing 0.02 0.38 14.0 2.9 1.1 Information, media, and 0.14 0.47 10.4 4.6 0.3 telecommunications Finance and insurance 0.12 0.28 16.8 1.1 0.3 21
In nformation technology’s con ntribution to labbour productiv vity growth Averag ge income Averaage annual in nput growth share s IT Non-IT IT Non-IT Labourr Industry Pro oportion Percentt Rental, hiring g, and real estate services 0.00 0.78 17.9 2.1 0.7 Professional, scientific, an nd technical 0.07 0.15 17.3 3.5 3.5 services Administrativve and supporrt services 0.05 0.15 15.7 4.2 5.3 Arts and recreation service es 0.02 0.43 19.4 4.4 3.9 es Other service 0.01 0.14 22.7 2.3 0.8 1. Service in ndustries (mea asured sector) include: whollesale trade; retail trade; acc ccommodation and food services; transport, postal, and warehou using; informa ation, media, and a telecommuunications; finance and insurance; reental, hiring, and a real estatee services; pro ofessional, scieentific, and tecchnical service es; administrativve and supporrt services; artts and recreatiion services; and a other servvices. 2. Service in ndustries (form mer measured sector) includ de: wholesale trade; t retail traade; accommoodation and food servicess; transport, postal, p and wa arehousing; infformation, med dia, and telecoommunication ns; finance and d insurance; and arts and re ecreation serv ices. Industriies in de etail This section n focuses on n IT’s contrib bution to lab bour productivity for the tthree industtries where the strongest s conntributions wwere found: information,, media, andd telecommun nications; fin nance and in nsurance; an onal, scientiffic, and technical nd professio services. As figure 2 shows, s IT caapital deepe ening made positive con ntributions too labour prod ductivity in the inform mation media a and teleco ommunicatio ons industry from 1978. For 1978–2 2011, IT capital deeppening accounted for ap pproximately y one-quarteer of total labbour productivity growth (con ntributing 1.4 4 percent of the 5.6 perccent annual growth). Avverage annual contributionns from MFP P and non-IT T capital deeepening were e 2.2 percennt and 1.8 peercent, respectivelyy. IT provide ed greater co ontributions to labour productivity grrowth than non-IT n capital until 1985, contrrasting with S Solow’s (1987) view tha at IT had minnimal effect on productivity. IT’s contrib butions to la bour producctivity growth h were stronngest for this s industry durring the 1990 0s. Figure 2 2 Information, media, and telecommunications contributions to labour productivity growth, average annual percentage cha ange Figure 3 sho ows that lab bour producttivity in the finance and insurance inndustry bene efited most strong gly from grow wth in IT cap pital deepening. The con ntributions oof IT capital 22
In nformation technology’s con ntribution to labbour productiv vity growth deepening were w greatest during the e 1980s and d the 2000s, with the strrong perform mance of the 1990s driven d by MF FP. For 1978 8–2011, app proximately half the laboour productiv vity growth could be explain ned by IT ca apital deepen ning. Non-ITT capital deeepening contribution ns were minimal over thee long term and in all co omplete cyclles. Figure 3 3 Finance and insurance contributions to labour productivity growth, average annual percentage change As figure 4 shows, s the professional p l, scientific, and technical services iindustry had d minimal laboour productiivity growth for 1996–20 011. IT capittal deepeninng was by fa ar the greatest conntributor to labour produuctivity, but declining d MFFP all but coompletely offfset this contribution n. IT capital contributions c s to labour productivity p growth g exceeeded non-IT T contribution ns in all perio ods. Figure 4 4 Professional, scientific, and technical services contributions to labour productivity growth, average annual percentage ch hange Outputs and inputs For 1978–2011, growth h in IT capita al services was w strong in n finance annd insurance e (increasing 25.6 percen nt a year) an nd informatio on, media, and a telecomm munications s (up 20.4 percen nt a year). Fo or 1996–201 11, IT capita al-services growth g sloweed to 16.8 percent a year in finan nce and insu urance and tto 10.4 perccent a year in informatioon, media, an nd telecommun nications. Buut it grew 17 7.3 percent a year in pro ofessional, sscientific, and technical seervices durin ng this periodd. The growth in IT capital services coonsistently surpassed s growth in laboour input forr each of es that bene the industrie efited strong ly from IT ca apital deepe ening. With ssuch strong growth 23
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth in IT capital services, ‘IT capital per hour paid’ closely reflected the growth in IT capital services as changes in labour input were relatively minor. Table 6 summarises output and input growth over growth cycles for the three main industries benefiting from IT capital deepening. All three industries showed declining capital productivity in all cycles. This is the result of consistently high growth in IT capital services in all cycles. IT capital input slowed across cycles for each industry, but still grew faster than non-IT assets and labour inputs – resulting in strong growth in IT capital deepening. Relatively low weights for IT capital mediated the strong growth IT input had on total inputs. Table 6 6 Outputs and inputs, selected industries, average annual growth rates, by cycle Outputs and inputs, selected industries, average annual growth rates, by cycle 1978–2011 IT Non-IT IT Non-IT capital- capital- Total Output Labour capital capital labour labour inputs ratio ratio Industry Cycle(1) Percent Information, 1978–82 3.5 0.5 35.9 -0.7 35.3 -1.2 0.6 media, and 1982–85 5.5 0.6 40.9 3.5 40.1 2.9 2.9 telecom- 1985–90 5.7 -0.4 29.6 7.6 30.1 8.1 4.5 munications 1990–97 6.0 -1.3 22.0 4.5 23.6 5.9 3.2 1997–2000 8.7 -1.6 16.3 7.2 18.2 8.9 4.9 2000–08 5.8 1.7 8.0 3.9 6.2 2.2 3.7 2008–11 0.9 -3.2 3.8 2.4 7.3 5.8 0.2 1978–2011 5.3 -0.3 20.4 4.2 20.7 4.4 3.0 1996–2011 5.4 0.3 10.4 4.6 10.1 4.2 3.6 Finance and 1978–82 5.6 2.3 62.8 1.6 59.2 -0.7 2.6 insurance 1982–85 5.0 2.6 72.1 6.0 67.8 3.3 5.9 1985–90 2.6 3.7 29.1 5.2 24.6 1.5 6.1 1990–97 2.5 -1.0 5.8 -0.9 6.8 0.0 -0.4 1997–2000 3.9 -3.7 24.5 -3.1 29.4 0.6 -1.8 2000–08 5.1 2.0 15.4 1.5 13.1 -0.6 3.6 2008–11 1.7 -0.9 16.6 4.6 17.7 5.6 3.2 1978–2011 3.8 0.9 25.6 1.8 24.4 0.9 2.7 1996–2011 4.0 0.3 16.8 1.1 16.4 0.8 2.4 Professional, 1997–2000 4.1 3.4 22.1 5.7 18.0 2.1 5.1 scientific, 2000–08 4.2 3.7 18.5 4.8 14.3 1.0 4.8 and technical services 2008–11 0.2 0.9 10.6 -3.2 9.6 -4.0 1.1 1996–2011 3.8 3.5 17.3 3.5 13.3 -0.1 4.5 1. 1978–82 and 2008–11 are incomplete cycles. Output growth can be decomposed into contributions from IT capital deepening, non-IT capital deepening, labour input, and MFP. 24
In nformation technology’s con ntribution to labbour productiv vity growth For the information, me edia, and tele ecommunica ations indus stry, IT capitaal provided strong ns to output growth contribution g (con tributing 1.4 4 percent annually for 19978–2011) – but non-IT capittal (which includes com munications s capital) and MFP weree generally thet main contributorss (providing 2.2 2 percent and 1.8 perrcent to annu ual output g rowth, respeectively). For finance and insuran nce, MFP wa as the main contributor to output grrowth during g the 1990s whilee IT contributed the mosst in the 1980s and 2000 0s. Labour pprovided thee highest contribution ns to output growth g in the nal, scientific e profession c, and technnical services industry unttil 2008, whe en IT input g growth became the main n contributorr. IT capital income shares IT capital co omprises a relatively r low w share of to otal industry income, eveven for those e industries where w IT cap pital servicess make a strrong contribuution to laboour productiv vity (see figure 5). Finance and d insurance had the hig hest share of o income atttributable too IT capital by b 2011, but still lesss than one-fiffth of its tota al industry in ncome. Growwth in IT cappital income was strong durin ng the 1980ss for informa ation, media, and telecommunicatioons, and for finance f and insuran nce. Capital income grow wth accelera ated again fo or 1996–20001 for inform mation, media, and telecommun nications, an nd from 199 97–2005 for finance andd insurance. Figure 5 5 IT capital income shares, selected industries Figure 6 shoows that, wh hen compariing IT capita al income with non-IT caapital income (ie removing thhe degree off labour inten nsity), IT capital incomee has becom me more imp portant in the capital mix m over time. While the e IT income share for professional, sscientific, annd technical seervices is the e lowest of tthe three inddustries, it ha as more incoome attributtable from IT capital relative to t its non-IT T capital than n the other industries coonsidered he ere. 25
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