Information technology's contribution to labour productivity growth

Page created by Anthony Bennett
 
CONTINUE READING
Information technology’s
            contribution to
labour productivity growth
C
               Crown   copyrright ©
This work is lice
                ensed under the Creative   e Commons Attribution
                                                         A           3.0 New Zealaand licence.
Youu are free to copy, distrib
                             bute, and ada apt the work, as long as you
                                                                      y attribute the work to
Sta
  atistics NZ annd abide by the
                             t other lice  ence terms. Please
                                                        P        note you
                                                                      y may not use any
deppartmental orr governmen  ntal emblem, logo, or coa  at of arms in any
                                                                      a way thatt infringes an
                                                                                             ny
pro
  ovision of the Flags, Emblems, and Na     ames Protec ction Act 1981. Use the w
                                                                                wording
'Sta
   atistics New Zealand' in your
                             y     attributio
                                            on, not the Statistics
                                                        S          NZ logo.

Lia
  ability
Wh hile all care and
                 a diligence has been ussed in processing, analys    sing, and exttracting data
andd information n in this publication, Statisstics New Ze
                                                         ealand gives no warrantyy it is error freee
andd will not be liable
                  l      for any
                               y loss or dam
                                           mage suffered d by the use directly, or i ndirectly, of the
info
   ormation in thhis publicatioon.

Cita
   ation

  atistics New Zealand
Sta            Z       (20113). Informattion technolo
                                                    ogy’s contrib
                                                                bution to labbour
pro            owth. Availab
  oductivity gro           ble from wwww.stats.govt.nz.

  BN: 978-0-47
ISB          78-40853-9 (o
                         online)

Pubblished in October
              O        2013
                          3 by
Sta
  atistics New Zealand
               Z
Tattauranga Aottearoa
Weellington, New
               w Zealand

Contact
  atistics New Zealand
Sta             Z        Information Cen tre: info@sta
                                                     ats.govt.nz
Phoone toll-free 0508 525 5225
Phoone internatioonal +64 4 931
                            9 4610
ww
 ww.stats.govt.nz
Contents
      List of table
                  es and figu
                            ures..................................................................................................... 4

      1 Purpose
              e and summ
                       mary.................................................................................................... 6
          Purpose ............................................................................................................................. 6
          Summarry ........................................................................................................................... 6

      2 Introduc
               ction ..................................................................................................................... 7
          Previouss research and context .......................................................................................... 7
          Overview
                 w of approac
                            ch ....................................................................................................... 7
          Outline of
                  o this paperr .......................................................................................................... 8

      3 Methodo
              ology .................................................................................................................... 9
          The grow
                 wth accountiing framewo
                                       ork ................................................................................... 9
          Output ............................................................................................................................. 10
                  nput .................................................................................................................... 10
          Labour in
          IT capita
                  al services in
                               ndex .................................................................................................. 10
          Factor in
                  nput weights
                             s ........................................................................................................ 13
          Industry coverage ............................................................................................................ 14

      4 Results ........................................................................................................................... 15
          IT’s conttribution to measured-se
                                m         ector labour productivity
                                                                  y growth ................................... 15
          Estimate
                 es for broad industry gro
                                         oups and ind
                                                    dustries ...................................................... 17
          Industrie
                  es in detail ........................................................................................................... 22

      5 Explainiing IT capital’s contrib
                                       bution ............................................................................ 27
          User cossts ....................................................................................................................... 27
          Productivve capital sttocks ................................................................................................. 30

      6 Comparring estimattes of IT’s c
                                      contribution
                                                 n to labour productivitty .......................... 31
          Defining IT ....................................................................................................................... 31
          Defining capital................................................................................................................ 31
          Deflatorss .......................................................................................................................... 32
          Specifyin
                  ng the user-cost formula
                                         a .................................................................................... 33

      7 Summarry ........................................................................................................................ 36
          Future work
                 w    ..................................................................................................................... 36

      References
               s.......................................................................................................................... 37

      Appendix............................................................................................................................. 38

                                                                   3
List of ttables and fig
                      gures
       List of tab
                 bles

       4 Results ........................................................................................................................... 15
           1 Growthh accounting
                              g for labour productivity, measured sector, and former mea                                   asured
           sector, 1978–2012 .......................................................................................................... 16
           2 Growth h accounting      g for labour productivity using qualitty-adjusted llabour inputs, 1999–
           2012 ................................................................................................................................ 17
           3 Growth          g for labour productivity, by broad in
                  h accounting                                          ndustry grouup and indus             stry,
           average annual grow
                             wth rates, 19978–2011 ...................................................................... 18
                  h accounting
           4 Growth          g for labour productivity, by broad in     ndustry grouup and indus             stry,
           average annual grow
                             wth rates, 19996–2011 ...................................................................... 19
           5 Income
                  e shares and
                             d input grow
                                        wth, by broad
                                                    d industry grroup and inddustry, 1996
                                                                                        6–201121
           6 Outputts and inputs
                               s, selected i ndustries, average
                                                        a       annual growth rrates, by cyc
                                                                                           cle ..... 24

       5 Explainiing IT capital’s contrib
                                        bution ............................................................................ 27
           7 Deprecciation rates
                               s for selected
                                            d assets, 19
                                                       978–2011 ................................................... 29

       6 Comparring estimattes of IT’s c
                                       contribution
                                                  n to labour productivitty .......................... 31
           8 Sensitiivity of the contribution
                                  c                   o
                                                      of IT to labour productiv            vity under altternative user-cost
           formula specification
                   s               ns, by broad      d industry gro       oup and industry, averaage annual growth,              g
           2008–11 .......................................................................................................................... 34

       List of figures

       4 Results ........................................................................................................................... 15
           1 Measu
                 ured-sector contributions
                                    c                  s to labour productivity
                                                                         p                   growth,
                                                                                              g           annuual percenta         age
           change ............................................................................................................................ 15
                   ation, media
           2 Informa          a, and teleco
                                          ommunicatio
                                                    ons contributions to laboour productiv                   vity
           growth, average
                   a       annnual percenttage change
                                                    e ................................................................. 22
           3 Financce and insura
                               ance contrib    butions to labour produc               ctivity growthh, average annual      a
           percentaage change ......................................................................................................... 23
           4 Professional, scien
                               ntific, and te
                                            echnical serv
                                                        vices contrib    butions to labbour produc             ctivity
           growth, average
                   a        annnual percenttage change  e ................................................................. 23
           5 IT capiital income shares,
                                s       sele
                                           ected industrries ............................................................. 25
           6 Ratio of
                   o IT capital income to n
                                          non-IT capita
                                                      al income, se
                                                                  elected induustries ................... 26

       5 Explainiing IT capital’s contrib
                                        bution ............................................................................ 27
           7 Compu
                 uter rental price per doll ar of capitall services, selected induustries ................... 28
           8 Softwa
                  are rental price per dolla
                                           ar of capital services,
                                                         s         selected indusstries .................... 28
           9 Asset price
                   p     indexe
                              es, selected assets .......................................................................... 29
           10 IT pro
                   oportion of to
                                otal product ive capital stock,
                                                         s      selected industriees .......................... 30

       6 Comparring estimattes of IT’s c          n to labour productivitty .......................... 31
                                       contribution
           11 IT cap
                   pital measurres, annual percentage change for finance andd insurance............ 32

                                                                    4
12 Economy-wide capital services, OECD estimates using different deflators............ 33

7 Summary .................................................................................................................... 36
    13 Information media, and telecommunications contributions to labour productivity
    growth, including communications equipment, average annual growth rates.............. 38

                                                         5
1 Purpose an
           nd sum
                mmary

      Purpose
      Growth in in
                 nformation teechnology (IIT) is considdered a key driver for proroductivity grrowth in
      many counttries. Howevver, New Zea   aland has litttle information on the eextent to which IT
      has benefite
                 ed labour prroductivity, e
                                          either at the measured sector
                                                                    s      or inddustry level.

      Information technology’s contributio
                                         on to labourr productivityy growth asssesses the role
                                                                                          r    of IT
                 pening grow
      capital deep         wth on labourr productivityy and fills an
                                                                   n informationn gap in
      understandiing New Zeaaland’s prodductivity perfformance.

      Summa
          ary
      Contribution
                 ns of IT capital deepenin
                                         ng to labourr productivity
                                                                  y growth aree presented for New
      Zealand’s in
                 ndustries and the measu ured sector for 1978–20  011. Figuress are derived
                                                                                          d using
      the standard
                 d growth acccounting fra
                                        amework.

      Most industtries showedd double-diggit growth in IT capital se
                                                                   ervices. Howwever, only a
      handful of in
                  ndustries be
                             enefited from
                                         m this growthh, in terms of
                                                                   o labour prooductivity.

      We found sttrong contrib butions of IT
                                           T capital dee
                                                       epening to thhe labour pro
                                                                               roductivity grrowth of
      the informattion, media, and telecom mmunication ns; finance and
                                                                    a insurancce services; and
      professiona
                al, scientific, and techniccal services industries.

      IT capital de
                  eepening co
                            ontributions w                         e measured sector, acco
                                           were also prresent in the                      ounting
      for 0.5 percent growth a year in labbour producttivity for 1996–2012 eveen though IT
                                                                                         T
      comprises a small sharre of total inccome.

                                                 6
2 Introd
       duction
             n
       This chapteer outlines prrevious rese
                                           earch about information technology’’s (IT) role in
                                                                                            n
       productivity and introdu
                              uces the frammework for the
                                                      t research  h reported heere.

                  T is considered a key drriver for prod
       Growth in IT                                      ductivity grow
                                                                      wth in counttries. Interna ational
       studies have shown larg ge effects in n the United States, with
                                                                     h smaller (buut still signifiicant)
       contribution
                  ns to producttivity in Canaada (Khan & Santos, 20   002) and Euurope (Van Ark,A
       Inklaar, & McGuckan,
                  M           2003).
                              2         Wei a
                                            and Zhao (20 012) found IT contributeed approxim   mately
       0.65 percennt a year to Australia’s
                               A            la
                                             abour productivity growtth for 1996––2010.

       Previou
             us resea
                    arch and
                           d conte
                                 ext
       There has been
                 b      little research into the role of IT
                                                          T on producctivity in New
                                                                                  w Zealand, with
                                                                                             w the
       exception of Engelbrecht and Xaya    avong (2006 6, 2007). Enggelbrecht annd Xayavong g (2007)
       use a growtth accounting frameworkk on industrry-level data from 1988––2003. They     y focus
       on informatiion and com  mmunicationss technology  y (ICT), whic
                                                                      ch covers booth IT and
       communications techno    ology.

        ICT intensitty is based on
                                o the propo  ortion of inte
                                                          ermediate inputs that aree ICT-relateed. ICT-
       intensive ind
                   dustries werre found to h have higher multifactor productivity growth, and  d distinct
       patterns in the
                   t growth contributions
                               c             s, relative to non-ICT inttensive induustries. Compared
       with other countries,
                  c           En
                               ngelbrecht a and Xayavon   ng (2007) suuggest that ““NZ seems tot be
       one of the fe
                   ew countries s so far to s how positive e productivitty impacts frrom ICT whe
                                                                                               en
       industry leve
                   el data are employed”
                                e           ( 2007, p22).

       The study reeported here e draws on iimprovemen nts to service-industry ooutput
       measureme  ent, capital-s
                               services meaasurement for
                                                       f IT and no on-IT assetss, industry-le
                                                                                            evel
       labour inputts estimatess, and metho
                                          ods for allocating entreppreneurial inccome to labour and
       capital deve
                  eloped since e Engelbrechht and Xayaavong’s (200 07) study.

       This paper assesses
                    a         IT
                               T’s contributiion to labourr productivity
                                                                       y growth in N
                                                                                   New Zealan nd, by
       industry, forr 1978–20111. 1 This perio
                                      0F     od covers significant changes in IT,, in relation to
       software, ne etworking ca
                               apabilities, m
                                            media, storage, and proc   cessing. Maainframes saat
       alongside mini-compute
                  m            ers during thhe 1970s. Th  he Apple II (1977),
                                                                      (       IBM personal co omputer
       running MS-DOS (1981    1), and Apple e Macintosh  h (1984) marked the advvent of perso onal
       computers. Software ca  apabilities w
                                           were enhance   ed following the releasee of Microsoft
       Windows (1985, and ve   ersion 3.0 in 1990). The World Wide    e Web’s devvelopment in n 1990
       heralded ye et another ne
                               ew era for ap  pplying IT.

       Overvie
             ew of ap
                    pproach
                          h
       This paper’ss approach is based on the growth accounting framework. This is the same
                                                                                       s
       approach th
                 he Australian
                             n Bureau of Statistics (A
                                                     ABS) uses to
                                                                o determine the contribu
                                                                                       ution of

       1
         Communica   ations capital is
                                     s not available   e as a separatte asset class but is part of oother asset classes, the
       extent to whicch varies acros ss industries. For the inform   mation, media, and telecomm    munications inndustry it
       is part of the electronic
                      e          equipment asset class, as well as other cons        struction. Whille other industtries may
       have commun    nications capittal, it is likely tto be a very sm
                                                                      mall part of the
                                                                                     e total electronnic equipmentt asset
       class (which covers
                      c       medicaal and surgicall equipment, broadcasters,
                                                                      b               transmitters, rreceivers, and
                                                                                                                  d other
       telecommuniccation equipment, optical an        nd photograph  hic equipment, and photocoppiers). Given the t
       challenges in identifying comparable com       mmunications capital across   s industries, thhis paper focus
                                                                                                                  ses on IT
       rather than ICCT.

                                                           7
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

IT capital deepening (Wei and Zhao, 2012), and is consistent with the underlying
methodology in New Zealand’s official productivity statistics series. 2        1F

The focus is on the use of IT capital rather than the production of IT services. Official
productivity statistics show the role of capital inputs on labour productivity, with the role of
IT subsumed within capital input’s contribution. The analysis reported in this paper
extends the official framework to determine the contribution of IT and non-IT capital on
labour productivity.

Capital inputs are measured as the flow of capital services from the productive capital
stock. This accounts for both the volume of IT capital and the associated capital costs
that are used to weight the IT assets. This is important for understanding the contribution
of IT to labour productivity given the sharp price decline in IT capital and its high rate of
depreciation, which are reflected in capital costs. 3    2F

IT covers computers and software for all industries. The Internet’s role is not assessed.
Internet usage may contribute to gross output, for example by providing a new
mechanism for selling goods and services, but will also form part of intermediate
consumption. Therefore, the benefits of the Internet may form part of value added and
multifactor productivity but cannot be readily identified.

Outline of this paper
This paper presents:

        the methodology for deriving contributions of IT to labour productivity growth
        estimates from the growth accounting approach
        an analysis of underlying capital volume and user cost data, to gain further insight
         into the estimated contributions
        commentary on comparing estimates across countries, to aid interpretation.

The paper concludes that in a number of industries labour productivity has strongly
benefited from IT capital growth, with these effects also reflected in measured-sector
labour productivity growth.

2
 The methodology employed in this paper could be readily applied to determine the contributions of
other types of capital to labour productivity (eg natural resources or research and development).
3
  The capital services approach is also preferable to using raw IT investment data, which may overstate
the effect on labour productivity, given the need to replace IT on a more-frequent basis than other fixed
assets.

                                               8
3 Meth
     hodolog
           gy
      This section
                 n presents th
                             he methodollogy used to
                                                   o determine the contribuution of IT to
                                                                                        o labour
      productivity growth amoong New Ze
                                      ealand’s induustries.

      The gro
            owth accountin
                         ng frame
                                ework
      The growth accounting framework is used to assess the efffect of IT onn labour
      productivity.

                  h the industrry-level prod
      Starting with                        duction function, which exhibits
                                                                     e        connstant returns to
      scale, growtth in output volumes (defined as value added       d, which is ggross outputt less
      intermediatee consumptiion) can be decompose     ed into the coontributions of IT (compputers
      and softwarre)     ,, , no
                               on-IT capital    ,, , labo
                                                        our   , , and multifactor productivity (MFP)
           :

                ∆lln   ,     ∆ ln          , ,   ∆ ln    ,,         ,,   ∆ ln        ,,    ,,   ∆ ln   ,

                 utions of IT, non-IT capiital, and labo
      The contribu                                     our to outpu
                                                                  ut depend onn weights                    ,,   ,
          ,, , and
                 d   ,, , as well
                             w    as volum
                                         mes      ,, ,   ,, , and   , respective
                                                                              vely.

      This approa ach acknowledges that IIT possesse   es separate characterist
                                                                     c            tics to non-IT
                                                                                               T capital,
      as it feeds into the prod
                              duction functtion as a dis
                                                       stinct factor input. In otheer words, th
                                                                                              he
      heterogeneity between IT and non--IT capital is  s allowed forr. MFP is speecified as
      disembodied technological change .

                 on can be re
      This equatio          earranged to                       s labour prooductivity could be
                                       o show that an industry’s
      determined by growth in
                            n the (weigh
                                       hted) amounnt of IT and non-IT
                                                               n      capita
                                                                           tal available per
      hour (capita
                 al deepening
                            g) and MFP::

                                                               ,,                              ,.
                       ∆ln     ,    ∆ ln            ,,   ∆ln                    ,,   ∆ln
                                                               ,                           ,

      The contribuution to labo
                              our productivvity depends  s on volume es of IT and non-IT capittal, as
      well as weig
                 ghts that refllect the relattive importance of thesee assets in tthe productio
                                                                                              on
      process. Thhis approach h allows the contribution n of IT capita
                                                                     al deepeningg to be calcu
                                                                                             ulated
      for each ind
                 dustry in eacch year, but does not ne  ecessarily shhow that IT ccapital deep
                                                                                             pening is,
      on average,, associated d with higherr labour prod ductivity acro
                                                                      oss industriees.

      IT growth may
                m also ben nefit MFP, byy enabling new
                                                    n     business models orr complemen    ntarities
      between IT and non-IT capital or la
                                        abour, but th
                                                    his is not identified in thee growth acc
                                                                                           counting
      framework.

      This approaach follows the same meethod used in official pro
                                                                 oductivity sta
                                                                             tatistics for
      measuring the
                 t contributtions to labo
                                        our productiv
                                                    vity, except for having sseparate cap  pital
      services ind
                 dexes for IT and non-IT capital and associated weights.

                                                    9
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

Growth accounting assumptions
The growth accounting approach relies on certain assumptions to determine MFP growth.
The OECD (2011) outlines the key issues:

    Growth accounting estimates show correlation, not causation (eg labour
     productivity growth could lead to growth in IT capital deepening).
    Assumptions of perfect competition in all markets, constant returns to scale, and full
     mobility of labour and capital are strong and not well tested. Increasing returns-to-
     scale are more than a possibility when assessing the role of IT, but the extent to
     which this occurs is not known.
    Firms are assumed to be price takers and to maximise profits. There are no
     adjustment costs or temporary fluctuations in output during the period in which new
     inputs are integrated into the production process.
    Variable capacity utilisation of capital is not accounted for (see the capacity
     utilisation section for more discussion).
    All measurement errors are subsumed within the MFP residual.
    Any externalities related to factors of production are also included in MFP, and any
     such externalities will lead to underestimating the production factor’s contribution.
There is also the assumption of complete asset coverage. If there are non-IT assets that
are not measured then the proportion of capital cost attributable to IT will be overstated,
and the contribution of IT to labour productivity will also be overstated.

The next sections define output and labour input, and describe how the IT capital
services index and factor weights are derived.

Output
Output is defined as chain-volume value added, sourced from the national accounts.
Aggregate and industry value-added data are chained Laspeyres volume indexes, re-
expressed as indexes with a base value of 1000. The base year is the March 1978 year
for most industries and the March 1996 year for the measured sector and some service
industries.

Labour input
At the industry level, labour input is measured as the sum of industry hours paid. This is a
composite series that uses data from the Linked-Employee-Employer Dataset (LEED),
Household Labour Force Survey, Quarterly Employment Survey, and the Business
Demography Database. Hours worked are often preferred to hours paid, in order to better
reflect the actual amount of time spent contributing to production. However, hours paid
data are more robust at the industry level. Industry-level hours-paid data are unadjusted
for workforce composition, which means that hours paid for each worker are treated
equally regardless of skill level. A composition-adjusted labour input series is available for
the measured sector.

IT capital services index
The starting point for measuring IT capital services is to construct productive capital
stocks using the perpetual inventory method (PIM). Assumptions are required for the rate

                                          10
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

of efficiency reduction and for asset lives when using the PIM. 4 Software and computers
                                                                           3F

have an efficiency reduction parameter value of 1 (which assumes no decline in efficiency
over time) and a mean asset life of four years (which is the lowest of all assets and leads
to high depreciation rates). These assumptions are applied uniformly across industries for
computers and software. 5     4F

The efficiency units of assets with different lives are aggregated to determine the
weighted average of the age-efficiency units, which is multiplied with gross fixed capital
formation to derive the productive capital stock. 6       5F

The IT capital services index is a Törnqvist aggregate index of computers and software
for all industries. The computers asset class covers all computing equipment, including
personal computers, networking systems, scanners, printers, receivers, and word
processors. Computer software includes computer programs, program descriptions, and
supporting materials for both systems and applications software. Purchased software and
software developed on own account are included, if the expenditure is large. 7 Additional   6F

IT capital may be embodied in other capital-asset classes, but this cannot be readily
identified nor is the extent of this known.

Capital is allocated to industries by ownership. Some industries may benefit from using IT
or non-IT capital owned by other industries if it is hired out. If an industry sells an asset to
another and rents it back, the output of the renting industry stays the same, but its
intermediate consumption leads to a fall in its value added. However, capital inputs have
also fallen, so capital productivity is potentially unchanged. The opposite effect may arise
for the industry that now owns the asset, so aggregate capital productivity might remain
unchanged. However, the contribution of IT capital deepening to labour productivity
growth may be understated for an industry that rents its IT (because some effects will be
subsumed within intermediate consumption).

4
 In this analysis, productive capital stock was sourced directly from the national accounts; sensitivity
analysis on the parameters underlying the PIM was not done.
5
 The Australian Bureau of Statistics assumes a value of 0.5 for each of these assets, and an asset life of
2.5 years for computer software. A value of 0.5 reflects an assumption of an even distribution of
efficiency decline over time. The efficiency reduction parameter forms part of the hyperbolic age-
efficiency equation:
                                                      M A
                                                 E
                                                      M bA
where
E = the efficiency of the asset at period t
M = the asset life as for an assumed retirement distribution
A = the age of the asset of the given vintage at period t
b = the efficiency reduction parameter.
6
 For the years in which the demand and supply estimates have yet to be reconciled through supply-use
balancing, economy-wide GFKF data by asset type and sector are obtained from quarterly GDP
estimates. Where specific information is not yet available, industry and market group allocations are
made according to the proportions from the latest balanced year. Source: Statistics NZ (2013a)
Productivity Statistics: Sources and Methods.
7
  Major expenditure on the purchase, development, or extension of computer databases that are
expected to be used for more than one year, whether marketed or not, are also included in principle.
However, given the present data sources, it is not possible to distinguish between software and
databases developed on contract or on own account, so it is not known to what extent databases are
included. The costs of collecting and capturing the information stored in databases are excluded.
Source: Statistics NZ (2013b) Measuring Capital Stock Manual.

                                                 11
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

Movements in the productive capital stock for both computers and software are each
weighted by their respective two-period shares of capital income to derive the IT capital
services index:

                                                                           ,,
                                            ,,                   ,,

                                           ,,                   ,,

                                 1          ,,        ,,              ,,                 ,,
                           ,,
                                 2 ∑             ,,        ,,   ∑               ,,            ,,

where

     = volume measure of the flow of IT capital services from IT capital stock in industry i
      ,,
in period t

  , , = volume measure of the productive capital stock j for each type of IT asset in
industry i in period t

  , , = two-period share of capital cost of using IT asset j in industry i in period t. Note: the
two-period shares of capital costs for all IT assets sum to unity in a given period

  , , = user cost (rental price) per dollar of capital services from capital stock j for each
type of IT capital in industry i in period t

The user cost, the price at which the owners of capital are considered to charge
themselves, is unobservable and is imputed as:

                                    ,,           ,,        ,,              ,,        ,

where

  ,,   = the asset price index of asset j in industry i in period t

  ,,   = the rate of economic depreciation of asset j in industry i in period t

= the real exogenous rate of return (set at 4 percent)

 ,,    = the average non-income tax rate on production for industry i in period t

The non-IT productive capital-stock and capital-services series are constructed in the
same manner as that for IT capital (but with different assumptions in applying the PIM,
such as asset lives and efficiency reduction parameters). They are aggregated over all
other remaining assets derived through the PIM, along with land and inventories.

Capacity utilisation
The level and growth rate of capacity utilisation is implicitly assumed to be the same for
IT and non-IT assets. Variations in capacity utilisation can have marked effects on capital
services, and to a lesser extent on MFP (Tipper & Warmke, 2012). Adjusting for variable

                                                  12
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

capacity utilisation involves applying a rate of capacity utilisation to productive capital-
stock data. Level differences in capacity utilisation across IT and non-IT assets will affect
capital services through productive capital stocks. Factor input weights (which are based
on proportions of user costs) will also be affected.

In the long term, capital services growth is likely to be similar whether adjusted for
capacity utilisation or not, but there will be persistent differences in the income share
weights. This is because the IT and non-IT income shares depend on the level of
productive capital stock. The income share effect is not mitigated by presenting
productivity estimates over growth cycles, but the capital service growth effect is.

The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research’s capacity utilisation series, which is
the most appropriate data source available for capacity utilisation adjustment, does not
contain an appropriate asset dimension. Consequently, this measurement issue cannot
be assessed. Data are presented over growth cycles (defined as ‘peak-to-peak’) in order
to account for fluctuations in capacity utilisation.

Factor input weights
In the standard approach to measuring MFP, the factor weight for capital (used to
combine labour and capital to derive total inputs) does not have an asset dimension.
Capital income needs to be apportioned between IT and non-IT capital in order to
aggregate the two capital-services indexes along with labour, and to determine the
contributions of IT and non-IT capital to labour productivity. This is achieved by using
capital-cost shares, which can be used under the assumption of perfect competition –
where capital costs exhaust capital income. Factor input weights represent the marginal
effect of a percentage increase in an input on value added (ie are interpreted as output
elasticities).

Total capital income                           ,   and labour income              ,   in each industry i for each
period t are derived as:

                                                     ,           ,           ,               ,

                                                    ,            ,           ,           ,

where

    ,           = gross operating surplus in industry i in period t

                      ,   = working proprietors' income in industry i allocated to capital in period t

            ,   = net taxes on production and imports allocated to capital in industry i in period t

     = compensation of employees in industry i in period t

                  ,       = working proprietors' income in industry i in period t allocated to labour

        ,       = net taxes on production and imports allocated to labour in industry i in period t

Total industry capital income is then proportionately allocated to IT and non-IT, using IT
and non-IT capital-cost shares in industry total income from flows of capital services as
weights:

                                                            13
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

                                          ∑                  ,,                ,,
                         ,,                                                                                    ,
                                ∑        ,,        ,,        ∑                                  ,,       ,,

                                              ∑                   ,,                    ,,
                           ,,                                                                                      ,
                                ∑         ,,            ,,    ∑                                     ,,    ,,

Factor input weights are then calculated as:

                                                                                       ,,
                                         ,,
                                                                           ,

                                                                                        ,,
                                         ,,
                                                                               ,

                                                                                   ,
                                          ,,
                                                                       ,

Where       ,             ,,                       ,,                                       ,   .

The factor weights (labour , , , IT       , , , and non-IT , , ) sum to unity, whether for
calculating industry or aggregate combined-inputs indexes, because the identity
                        ,            , holds. Also, the sum of the IT and non-IT weights
equals the capital weight in the standard productivity framework. The weights are
calculated as two-period shares, and are applied exponentially to the relevant input index
to calculate a Törnqvist index of total inputs.

Industry coverage
Productivity statistics are available for 25 ‘market-based’ industries that cover the
measured sector, and for the health care and social assistance, and education and
training industries. Productivity data are available from 1978 for 20 industries, and from
1996 for a further five market-based industries.

This paper reports on analysis for each industry in the measured sector, the three broad
industry groups within the measured sector, and for the measured sector.

IT contributions to labour productivity growth in the health and education industries are
likely to be minimal, as non-residential buildings dominate the productive capital stocks
for these industries and the total capital weights are among the lowest of all industries.

                                              14
4 Resu
     ults
      This section
                 n presents thhe contributiions of IT to labour prod
                                                                   ductivity; firsst for the measured
      sector, then
                 n by broad in
                             ndustry grou up and indus stry, and then focuses oon the IT
      contribution
                 ns for selecte
                              ed industriess.

      IT’s con
             ntributio
                     on to me
                            easured
                                  d-sectorr labourr produc
                                                         ctivity
      growth
      Under the growth
                  g      accouunting frameework, labou
                                                     ur productivity growth caan be decom
                                                                                        mposed
      into contribu
                  utions from IT capital de
                                          eepening, no
                                                     on-IT capital deepening , and MFP.

      Figure 1 shoows that IT contribution s were refle
                                                      ected in meaasured-sectoor labour
      productivity. For 1996–22012, meassured-sectorr labour prod ductivity incrreased 1.5 percent
                                                                                           p
                 T capital dee
      annually. IT           epening was the largest driver (contributing 0.5 percent a year),
      along with MFP
                 M           ercent a yearr), followed by non-IT ca
                       (0.5 pe                                     apital deepeening (0.4 peercent a
      year). The IT contributio
                              ons were driiven by growwth in the vo
                                                                  olume of IT ccapital services (up
      15.0 percennt annually) while
                              w     the IT capital inco
                                                      ome weight averaged
                                                                   a          4.88 percent off total
      income. 8                                                                        7F

      Figure 1
      1 Measured-sector contributions to labour productivity growth, annual percentage change

      IT capital de
                  eepening alsso contribute ed strongly to
                                                         t labour pro oductivity grrowth among  g the
      former measured-secto  or industries from 1978 to  t 1996. Con  ntributions ro
                                                                                  rose from 0.1
      percent in 1981 to 0.9 percent
                              p        in 19987 but fell back
                                                         b    to 0.1 percent by 11996. As witth the
      measured sector,
                  s      contrributions of I T capital de
                                                        eepening inc creased, to re
                                                                                  reach 0.6 pe ercent in
      2000 and re emain relativ
                              vely stable thhereafter. Average
                                                        A        conttributions weere 0.5 percent a
      year for 20000–11. Tablee 1 presentss the contrib butions to lab
                                                                     bour product ctivity growth
                                                                                               h for the
      measured sector
                  s     and foormer measu   ured sector across grow  wth cycles.

      8
                  Labour incom
                             me averaged 57.4 percent a
                                                      and non-IT ca
                                                                  apital income 37.7
                                                                                3    percent.

                                                                                                15
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

Table 1
1 Growth accounting for labour productivity, measured sector and former measured sector, 1978–2012

Growth accounting for labour productivity, measured sector, and former measured
sector
1978–2012
                                                                                                                                                         Contribution
                                                                                                                                   Contribution
                                                                                                                    Labour                                 of non-IT
                                                                                                                                   of IT capital                           MFP
                                                                                                                  productivity                              capital
                                                                                                                                    deepening
                                                                                                                                                          deepening
                                     Sector                                                            Cycle(1)                                     Percent
         Measured                                                                                    1997–00          2.8                0.5                 0.5           1.7
                (2)
         sector                                                                                      2000–08          1.3                0.5                 0.3           0.5
                                                                                                     2008–12          0.7                0.5                 0.6           -0.4
                                                                                                     1996–2012        1.5                0.5                 0.4           0.5
         Former                                                                                      1978–82          2.1                0.1                 0.4           1.6
         measured                                                                                    1982–85          1.3                0.4                 1.3           -0.3
                (3)
         sector                                                                                      1985–90          2.7                0.7                 1.7           0.3
                                                                                                     1990–97          2.6                0.3                 0.3           2.0
                                                                                                     1997–00          3.3                0.5                 0.6           2.1
                                                                                                     2000–08          1.3                0.5                 0.3           0.5
                                                                                                     2008–12          1.2                0.5                 0.9           -0.3
                                                                                                     1996–2012        1.8                0.5                 0.6           0.7
                           1978–2012                2.0                  0.4              0.7               0.9
         1. 1978–82 and 2008–12 are incomplete cycles.
         2. Measured sector includes: agriculture, forestry, and fishing; mining; manufacturing; electricity, gas,
         water, and waste services; wholesale trade; retail trade; accommodation and food services; transport,
         postal, and warehousing; information, media, and telecommunications; finance and insurance; rental,
         hiring, and real estate services; professional, scientific, and technical services; administrative and
         support services; arts and recreation services; and other services. Series available from 1996.
         3. Former measured sector includes: agriculture, forestry, and fishing; mining; manufacturing;
         electricity, gas, water, and waste services; wholesale trade; retail trade; accommodation and food
         services; transport, postal, and warehousing; information media and telecommunications; finance and
         insurance; and arts and recreation. Series available from 1978.

Accounting for workforce composition
IT can be related to skills in two distinct ways. First, IT may be skills-replacing; lower-
skilled workers can do the same job as higher-skilled workers, thereby reducing the
returns for higher skills. An example is an automated stock control system in a
warehouse. Second, IT may also be skills-complementing and increase the returns for
higher skills. This might happen in a research setting, where IT enables a highly-skilled
worker to access and integrate more information into their work.

Estimates of IT’s contribution may therefore be affected by the industry labour-input
measures not reflecting workforce composition. Omitting changes in labour quality will
lead to an upwards bias in IT’s contribution if highly skilled workers are required to
effectively utilise IT.

The strong contributions from IT capital deepening hold after adjusting for workforce
composition. Estimates of the contribution of IT capital deepening, using quality-adjusted
labour inputs, are similar to those presented in figure 1. 9 But contributions from non-IT                                                     8F

9
   This finding is similar to O’Mahony and Vecchi (2005) who find that accounting for labour quality had
little impact on estimates of IT’s contribution to MFP.

                                                                                                                            16
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

capital deepening are more sensitive to the labour input measure, due to the higher
income share weight for non-IT capital services.

Table 2 presents the contributions to labour productivity growth using quality-adjusted
labour inputs. Figures in parentheses represent the difference in percentage points from
the main estimates which are unadjusted for workforce composition.

Table 2
2 Growth accounting for labour productivity using quality-adjusted labour inputs, 1999–2012

Growth accounting for labour productivity using quality-adjusted labour inputs,
measured sector
1999–2012
                                                                                              Labour productivity
                                                                                                                    Contribution of IT    Contribution of non-IT
                                                                                                (composition-                                                                 MFP
                                                                                                                    capital deepening       capital deepening
          Year                                                                                    adjusted)
          1999                                                                                  0.1        (-1.0)     0.5        (0.0)        0.3          (-0.4)      -0.8         (-0.6)
          2000                                                                                  4.2        (-1.0)     0.6        (0.0)        -0.2         (-0.4)       3.8         (-0.6)
          2001                                                                                  0.5        (-0.7)     0.5        (0.0)        -0.1         (-0.3)       0.0         (-0.4)
          2002                                                                                  1.0        (-0.1)     0.6        (0.0)        -0.1         (0.0)        0.5         (0.0)
          2003                                                                                  1.3        (-0.2)     0.4        (0.0)        -0.5         (-0.1)       1.4         (-0.1)
          2004                                                                                  0.5        (-0.5)     0.6        (0.0)        0.1          (-0.2)      -0.2         (-0.3)
          2005                                                                                  1.6        (0.4)      0.5        (0.0)        0.5          (0.1)        0.6         (0.2)
          2006                                                                                  2.0        (0.1)      0.7        (0.0)        0.7          (0.0)        0.6         (0.0)
          2007                                                                                  1.3        (0.4)      0.5        (0.0)        0.5          (0.2)        0.3         (0.2)
          2008                                                                                  0.9        (-0.7)     0.4        (0.0)        0.4          (-0.3)       0.1         (-0.4)
          2009                                                                                  -1.8       (0.4)      0.4        (0.0)        1.4          (0.1)       -3.5         (0.2)
          2010                                                                                  2.7        (-1.0)     0.6        (0.0)        1.1          (-0.4)       1.0         (-0.5)
          2011                                                                                  0.2        (-0.3)     0.5        (0.0)        -0.2         (-0.1)      -0.1         (-0.2)
          2012                                                                                  1.0        (0.1)      0.5        (0.0)        -0.2         (0.0)        0.7         (0.1)

          Note: Data are available from 1998 as workforce composition data is sourced from the New Zealand
          Income Survey (NZIS). The composition-adjusted series is only available for the measured sector as the
          NZIS is not stratified by industry.

Estimates for broad industry groups and industries
Contributions of IT capital deepening to labour productivity growth were strongest for
service industries, followed by goods-producing industries, and finally primary industries.

As table 3 shows, within these broad groups IT capital deepening contributions to labour
productivity growth varied across industries. For 1978–2011, the strongest contributions
were in the information, media, and telecommunications industry and finance and
insurance. Sizeable IT capital deepening contributions were observed for printing; and
transport equipment, machinery, and equipment manufacturing; and for both wholesale
trade and retail trade. Labour productivity in electricity, gas, water, and waste services
benefited from IT capital deepening in the 1990s, leading to a contribution of 0.3
percentage points a year for 1978–2011.

In the latest incomplete cycle (2008–11), printing; transport equipment, machinery, and
equipment manufacturing; retail trade; and administrative and support services showed
contributions of IT capital deepening to labour productivity of 0.5 percent a year or above.

                                                                                                                            17
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

Primary industries showed the lowest contribution of IT capital deepening for 1978–2011.
MFP provided the main contributions for the agricultural industries and non-IT capital for
mining. This result is perhaps not surprising given the nature of these industries and the
dominance of other assets in their capital stocks (eg land and inventories for agriculture).

Industries with higher contributions from IT capital deepening for 1978–2011 also tended
to have higher contributions for 1996–2011 (see tables 3 and 4). Table 4 also includes
growth accounting estimates for the additional service industries that are measured from
1996. Information, media, and telecommunications, finance and insurance, and
professional, scientific, and technical services were the industries with the highest
contributions to labour productivity growth from IT capital deepening for 1996–2011. IT
capital deepening was the highest contributor to labour productivity for administrative and
support services, and arts and recreation, for 1996–2011. IT capital deepening provided
higher contributions than non-IT capital deepening for other services during this time.

Table 3
3 Growth accounting for labour productivity, by broad industry group and industry, average annual growth rates, 1978–2011

Growth accounting for labour productivity, by broad industry group and industry,
average annual growth rates
1978–2011
                                                                                                                                                                  Contribution
                                                                                                                                                Contribution
                                                                                                                                Labour                              of non-IT
                                                                                                                                                of IT capital                          MFP
                                                                                                                              productivity                           capital
                                                                                                                                                 deepening
                                                                                                                                                                   deepening

          Industry                                                                                                                                         Percent
          Primary industries                                                                                                       3.3               0.1               1.3             1.9
          Agriculture, forestry, and fishing                                                                                       3.2               0.1               0.8             2.3
          Agriculture                                                                                                              3.0               0.0               0.5             2.5
          Forestry and fishing, and services to
                                                                                                                                   2.9               0.1               1.1             1.7
          agriculture, forestry, and fishing
          Mining                                                                                                                   2.1               0.1               2.7             -0.7
          Goods-producing industries                                                                                               1.4               0.2               0.9             0.3
          Manufacturing                                                                                                            1.6               0.3               1.0             0.3
          Food, beverage, and tobacco                                                                                              1.8               0.2               1.0             0.6
          product manufacturing
          Textile, leather, clothing, and
                                                                                                                                   2.4               0.2               0.6             1.6
          footwear manufacturing
          Wood and paper products
                                                                                                                                   2.1               0.3               0.8             1.0
          manufacturing
          Printing                                                                                                                 0.6               0.4               0.2             0.0
          Petroleum, chemical, polymer, and
                                                                                                                                   2.1               0.3               1.6             0.2
          rubber product manufacturing
          Non-metallic mineral product
                                                                                                                                   1.8               0.2               1.1             0.6
          manufacturing
          Metal product manufacturing                                                                                              0.6               0.2               0.7             -0.3
          Transport equipment, machinery,
                                                                                                                                   1.2               0.5               0.3             0.4
          and equipment manufacturing
          Furniture and other manufacturing                                                                                        0.1               0.2               0.1             -0.2
          Electricity, gas, water, and waste
                                                                                                                                   2.2               0.3               1.7             0.2
          services

                                                                                                                                   18
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

                                                                                                                                                                        Contribution
                                                                                                                                                      Contribution
                                                                                                                                      Labour                              of non-IT
                                                                                                                                                      of IT capital                          MFP
                                                                                                                                    productivity                           capital
                                                                                                                                                       deepening
                                                                                                                                                                         deepening

          Industry                                                                                                                                               Percent
          Construction                                                                                                                   0.6               0.1                 0.3           0.2
                                                                                                                            (1)
          Service industries                                                                                                             2.2               0.7                 0.4           1.1
          Wholesale trade                                                                                                                1.0               0.4                 0.0           0.6
          Retail trade                                                                                                                   1.1               0.5                 0.3           0.3
          Accommodation and food services                                                                                                -1.2              0.1                 0.2           -1.5
          Transport, postal, and warehousing                                                                                             3.5               0.2                 0.2           3.1
          Information, media, and
                                                                                                                                         5.6               1.4                 1.8           2.2
          telecommunications
          Finance and insurance                                                                                                          2.8               1.5                 0.2           1.1

          1. Service industries include: wholesale trade; retail trade; accommodation and food services;
          transport, postal, and warehousing; information media and telecommunications; finance and insurance;
          and arts and recreation.

Table 4
4 Growth accounting for labour productivity, by broad industry group and industry, average annual growth rates, 1996–2011

Growth accounting for labour productivity, by broad industry group and industry,
average annual growth rates
1996–2011
                                                                                                                                                                           Contribution
                                                                                                                                                      Contribution
                                                                                                                                      Labour                                 of non-IT
                                                                                                                                                      of IT capital                          MFP
                                                                                                                                    productivity                              capital
                                                                                                                                                       deepening
                                                                                                                                                                            deepening
          Industry                                                                                                                                               Percent
          Primary industries                                                                                                             1.9               0.1                 1.4            0.4
          Agriculture, forestry, and fishing                                                                                             1.8               0.1                 0.9            0.8
          Agriculture                                                                                                                    1.9               0.1                 0.7            1.1
          Forestry and fishing, and services to
                                                                                                                                         -0.4              0.1                 0.3           -0.7
          agriculture, forestry, and fishing
          Mining                                                                                                                         -0.3              0.1                 1.5           -1.8
          Goods-producing industries                                                                                                     1.3               0.2                 0.6            0.4
          Manufacturing                                                                                                                  1.7               0.3                 0.5            0.8
          Food, beverage, and tobacco
                                                                                                                                         1.0               0.1                 0.6            0.3
          product manufacturing
          Textile, leather, clothing, and
                                                                                                                                         2.9               0.3                 0.5            2.1
          footwear manufacturing
          Wood and paper products
                                                                                                                                         2.7               0.3                 0.8            1.6
          manufacturing
          Printing                                                                                                                       0.3               0.6                 0.5           -0.8
          Petroleum, chemical, polymer, and
                                                                                                                                         3.0               0.2                 0.6            2.2
          rubber product manufacturing
          Non-metallic mineral product
                                                                                                                                         1.6               0.2                 1.4           -0.1
          manufacturing

                                                                                                                                         19
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

                                                                               Contribution
                                                          Contribution
                                          Labour                                 of non-IT
                                                          of IT capital                          MFP
                                        productivity                              capital
                                                           deepening
                                                                                deepening
Industry                                                             Percent
Metal product manufacturing                  0.6               0.2                 -0.1           0.5
Transport equipment, machinery,
                                             1.9               0.7                 0.2            1.0
and equipment manufacturing
Furniture and other manufacturing            1.4               0.3                 0.2            0.8
Electricity, gas, water, and waste
                                             -0.4              0.3                 1.7           -2.4
services
Construction                                 0.8               0.2                 0.0            0.6
Service industries (measured
        (1)                                  1.6               0.6                 0.2            0.7
sector)
Service industries (former measured
        (2)                                  2.2               0.8                 0.5            1.0
sector)
Wholesale trade                              2.0               0.6                 -0.2           1.7
Retail trade                                 1.8               0.5                 0.2            1.1
Accommodation and food services              -0.5              0.1                 0.4           -1.0
Transport, postal, and warehousing           1.3               0.2                 0.7            0.4
Information, media, and
                                             5.1               1.4                 1.9            1.7
telecommunications
Finance and insurance                        3.7               1.8                 0.2            1.6
Rental, hiring, and real estate
                                             2.4               0.1                 1.1            1.2
services
Professional, scientific, and
                                             0.2               0.9                 0.0           -0.7
technical services
Administrative and support services          -2.2              0.4                 -0.1          -2.5
Arts and recreation services                 -0.6              0.3                 0.2           -1.1
Other services                               2.6               0.3                 0.2            2.1

1. Service industries (measured sector) include: wholesale trade; retail trade; accommodation and food
services; transport, postal, and warehousing; information, media, and telecommunications; finance and
insurance; rental, hiring, and real estate services; professional, scientific, and technical services;
administrative and support services; arts and recreation services; and other services.
2. Service industries (former measured sector) include: wholesale trade; retail trade; accommodation
and food services; transport, postal, and warehousing; information, media, and telecommunications;
finance and insurance; and arts and recreation services.

Contributions of IT capital deepening were driven by growth in capital services as income
shares were relatively low. Although similar growth in capital services was observed
across industries, income shares were remarkably low (or even non-existent) for some
industries (see table 5).

                                             20
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

Table 5
5 Income shares and input growth, by broad industry group and industry, 1996–2011

Income shares and input growth, by broad industry group and industry
1996–2011
                                                                                             Average income
                                                                                                                         Average annual input growth
                                                                                                  share
                                                                                                 IT           Non-IT      IT         Non-IT        Labour
          Industry                                                                                    Proportion                     Percent
          Primary industries                                                                 0.01              0.53      14.7          2.1           -0.6
          Agriculture, forestry, and fishing                                                 0.01              0.56      13.1          2.5           1.7
          Agriculture                                                                        0.00              0.47      14.8          1.1           -0.8
          Forestry and fishing, and services to
                                                                                             0.00              0.43      17.3          0.2           -1.3
          agriculture, forestry, and fishing
          Mining                                                                             0.01              0.81      15.6          3.7           1.9
          Goods-producing industries                                                         0.02              0.40      13.0          1.7           0.1
          Manufacturing                                                                      0.02              0.39      12.4          0.4           -1.0
          Food, beverage, and tobacco product
                                                                                             0.01              0.41      12.9          2.0           0.7
          manufacturing
          Textile, leather, clothing, and footwear
                                                                                             0.02              0.27      9.9          -3.8           -5.3
          manufacturing
          Wood and paper products
                                                                                             0.02              0.37      12.4          0.2           -1.7
          manufacturing
          Printing                                                                           0.04              0.32      15.1         -0.5           -2.1
          Petroleum, chemical, polymer, and
                                                                                             0.02              0.50      8.1          -1.0           -2.4
          rubber product manufacturing
          Non-metallic mineral product
                                                                                             0.02              0.48      15.7          2.5           -0.5
          manufacturing
          Metal product manufacturing                                                        0.02              0.36      13.6         -0.9           -0.5
          Transport equipment, machinery, and
                                                                                             0.05              0.26      15.3          0.0           -0.9
          equipment manufacturing
          Furniture and other manufacturing                                                  0.02              0.24      12.5         -1.5           -2.7
          Electricity, gas, water, and waste
                                                                                             0.03              0.79      13.3          4.0           1.7
          services
          Construction                                                                       0.01              0.22      20.7          2.7           2.6
                                                                                    (1)
          Service industries (measured sector)                                               0.05              0.35      15.0          2.4           1.7
          Service industries (former measured
                  (1)                                                                        0.06              0.34      14.3          2.4           1.0
          sector)
          Wholesale trade                                                                    0.04              0.33      14.0         -0.3           0.4
          Retail trade                                                                       0.04              0.28      15.9          1.7           1.2
          Accommodation and food services                                                    0.01              0.24      16.1          3.8           2.3
          Transport, postal, and warehousing                                                 0.02              0.38      14.0          2.9           1.1
          Information, media, and
                                                                                             0.14              0.47      10.4          4.6           0.3
          telecommunications
          Finance and insurance                                                              0.12              0.28      16.8          1.1           0.3

                                                                                            21
In
                                                                                                                              nformation technology’s con
                                                                                                                                                        ntribution to labbour productiv
                                                                                                                                                                                      vity growth

                                                                                                                                     Averag
                                                                                                                                          ge income
                                                                                                                                                                  Averaage annual in
                                                                                                                                                                                   nput growth
                                                                                                                                          share
                                                                                                                                          s
                                                                                                                                         IT           Non-IT      IT          Non-IT        Labourr
          Industry                                                                                                                            Pro
                                                                                                                                                oportion                      Percentt
          Rental, hiring
                       g, and real estate services                                                                                    0.00             0.78      17.9           2.1           0.7
          Professional, scientific, an
                                     nd technical
                                                                                                                                      0.07             0.15      17.3           3.5           3.5
          services
          Administrativve and supporrt services                                                                                       0.05             0.15      15.7           4.2           5.3
          Arts and recreation service
                                    es                                                                                                0.02             0.43      19.4           4.4           3.9
                      es
          Other service                                                                                                               0.01             0.14      22.7           2.3           0.8

          1. Service in
                      ndustries (mea  asured sector) include: whollesale trade; retail trade; acc
                                                                                               ccommodation and food
          services; transport, postal, and warehou  using; informa
                                                                 ation, media, and
                                                                                a telecommuunications; finance and
          insurance; reental, hiring, and
                                      a real estatee services; pro
                                                                 ofessional, scieentific, and tecchnical service
                                                                                                               es;
          administrativve and supporrt services; artts and recreatiion services; and
                                                                                 a other servvices.
          2. Service in
                      ndustries (form
                                    mer measured sector) includ de: wholesale trade;
                                                                              t      retail traade; accommoodation and
          food servicess; transport, postal,
                                     p       and wa
                                                  arehousing; infformation, med
                                                                              dia, and telecoommunication ns; finance and
                                                                                                                        d
          insurance; and arts and re ecreation serv ices.

Industriies in de
                etail
This section
           n focuses on n IT’s contrib
                                     bution to lab
                                                 bour productivity for the tthree industtries
where the strongest
           s         conntributions wwere found: information,, media, andd
telecommun nications; fin
                        nance and in nsurance; an            onal, scientiffic, and technical
                                                  nd professio
services.

As figure 2 shows,
             s       IT caapital deepe
                                     ening made positive con  ntributions too labour prod
                                                                                        ductivity
in the inform
            mation media  a and teleco
                                     ommunicatio  ons industry from 1978. For 1978–2   2011, IT
capital deeppening accounted for ap  pproximately y one-quarteer of total labbour productivity
growth (con ntributing 1.4
                         4 percent of the 5.6 perccent annual growth). Avverage annual
contributionns from MFP P and non-IT T capital deeepening were e 2.2 percennt and 1.8 peercent,
respectivelyy. IT provide
                        ed greater co ontributions to labour productivity grrowth than non-IT
                                                                                        n
capital until 1985, contrrasting with S
                                      Solow’s (1987) view tha at IT had minnimal effect on
productivity. IT’s contrib
                         butions to la bour producctivity growth
                                                               h were stronngest for this
                                                                                        s
industry durring the 1990 0s.

Figure 2
2 Information, media, and telecommunications contributions to labour productivity growth, average annual percentage cha
                                                                                                                      ange

Figure 3 sho
           ows that lab
                      bour producttivity in the finance and insurance inndustry bene   efited
most strong
          gly from grow
                      wth in IT cap
                                  pital deepening. The con  ntributions oof IT capital

                                                                                                                                    22
In
                                                                                                                                    nformation technology’s con
                                                                                                                                                              ntribution to labbour productiv
                                                                                                                                                                                            vity growth

deepening were
            w    greatest during the
                                   e 1980s and d the 2000s, with the strrong perform
                                                                                   mance of
the 1990s driven
           d      by MF
                      FP. For 1978 8–2011, app proximately half the laboour productiv
                                                                                    vity
growth could be explain
                      ned by IT ca apital deepen
                                               ning. Non-ITT capital deeepening
contribution
           ns were minimal over thee long term and in all co
                                                           omplete cyclles.

Figure 3
3 Finance and insurance contributions to labour productivity growth, average annual percentage change

As figure 4 shows,
            s        the professional
                          p          l, scientific, and technical services iindustry had
                                                                                       d
minimal laboour productiivity growth for 1996–20   011. IT capittal deepeninng was by fa
                                                                                       ar the
greatest conntributor to labour produuctivity, but declining
                                                    d        MFFP all but coompletely offfset this
contribution
           n. IT capital contributions
                         c           s to labour productivity
                                                   p            growth
                                                                 g      exceeeded non-IT T
contribution
           ns in all perio
                         ods.

Figure 4
4 Professional, scientific, and technical services contributions to labour productivity growth, average annual percentage ch
                                                                                                                           hange

Outputs and inputs
For 1978–2011, growth   h in IT capita
                                     al services was
                                                 w strong in n finance annd insurance  e
(increasing 25.6 percen  nt a year) an
                                     nd informatio
                                                 on, media, and
                                                             a telecomm    munications s (up
20.4 percen nt a year). Fo
                         or 1996–201 11, IT capita
                                                 al-services growth
                                                             g       sloweed to 16.8 percent a
year in finan
            nce and insu urance and tto 10.4 perccent a year in informatioon, media, an nd
telecommun  nications. Buut it grew 17
                                     7.3 percent a year in pro
                                                             ofessional, sscientific, and
technical seervices durin
                        ng this periodd.

The growth in IT capital services coonsistently surpassed
                                                 s          growth in laboour input forr each of
            es that bene
the industrie          efited strong ly from IT ca
                                                 apital deepe
                                                            ening. With ssuch strong growth

                                                                                                                                          23
Information technology’s contribution to labour productivity growth

in IT capital services, ‘IT capital per hour paid’ closely reflected the growth in IT capital
services as changes in labour input were relatively minor.

Table 6 summarises output and input growth over growth cycles for the three main
industries benefiting from IT capital deepening. All three industries showed declining
capital productivity in all cycles. This is the result of consistently high growth in IT capital
services in all cycles. IT capital input slowed across cycles for each industry, but still grew
faster than non-IT assets and labour inputs – resulting in strong growth in IT capital
deepening. Relatively low weights for IT capital mediated the strong growth IT input had
on total inputs.

Table 6
6 Outputs and inputs, selected industries, average annual growth rates, by cycle

Outputs and inputs, selected industries, average annual growth rates, by cycle
1978–2011
                                                                                                                                              IT        Non-IT
                                                                                                                      IT        Non-IT      capital-    capital-     Total
                                                                                               Output    Labour
                                                                                                                    capital     capital     labour      labour      inputs
                                                                                                                                             ratio       ratio
          Industry                                                                 Cycle(1)                                      Percent
          Information,                                                             1978–82      3.5        0.5        35.9        -0.7        35.3        -1.2       0.6
          media, and                                                               1982–85      5.5        0.6        40.9        3.5         40.1         2.9       2.9
          telecom-
                                                                                   1985–90      5.7        -0.4       29.6        7.6         30.1         8.1       4.5
          munications
                                                                                   1990–97      6.0        -1.3       22.0        4.5         23.6         5.9       3.2
                                                                                   1997–2000    8.7        -1.6       16.3        7.2         18.2         8.9       4.9
                                                                                   2000–08      5.8        1.7        8.0         3.9          6.2         2.2       3.7
                                                                                   2008–11      0.9        -3.2       3.8         2.4          7.3         5.8       0.2
                                                                                   1978–2011    5.3        -0.3       20.4        4.2         20.7         4.4       3.0
                                                                                   1996–2011    5.4        0.3        10.4        4.6         10.1         4.2       3.6
          Finance and                                                              1978–82      5.6        2.3        62.8        1.6         59.2        -0.7       2.6
          insurance                                                                1982–85      5.0        2.6        72.1        6.0         67.8         3.3       5.9
                                                                                   1985–90      2.6        3.7        29.1        5.2         24.6         1.5       6.1
                                                                                   1990–97      2.5        -1.0       5.8         -0.9         6.8         0.0       -0.4
                                                                                   1997–2000    3.9        -3.7       24.5        -3.1        29.4         0.6       -1.8
                                                                                   2000–08      5.1        2.0        15.4        1.5         13.1        -0.6       3.6
                                                                                   2008–11      1.7        -0.9       16.6        4.6         17.7         5.6       3.2
                                                                                   1978–2011    3.8        0.9        25.6        1.8         24.4         0.9       2.7
                                                                                   1996–2011    4.0        0.3        16.8        1.1         16.4         0.8       2.4
          Professional,                                                            1997–2000    4.1        3.4        22.1        5.7         18.0         2.1       5.1
          scientific,
                                                                                   2000–08      4.2        3.7        18.5        4.8         14.3         1.0       4.8
          and technical
          services                                                                 2008–11      0.2        0.9        10.6        -3.2         9.6        -4.0       1.1
                                                                                   1996–2011    3.8        3.5        17.3        3.5         13.3        -0.1       4.5

          1. 1978–82 and 2008–11 are incomplete cycles.

Output growth can be decomposed into contributions from IT capital deepening, non-IT
capital deepening, labour input, and MFP.

                                                                                                             24
In
                                                   nformation technology’s con
                                                                             ntribution to labbour productiv
                                                                                                           vity growth

For the information, me edia, and tele
                                     ecommunica   ations indus
                                                             stry, IT capitaal provided strong
           ns to output growth
contribution             g      (con tributing 1.4
                                                 4 percent annually for 19978–2011) – but
non-IT capittal (which includes com munications  s capital) and MFP weree generally thet main
contributorss (providing 2.2
                         2 percent and 1.8 perrcent to annu   ual output g rowth, respeectively).

For finance and insuran nce, MFP wa  as the main contributor to output grrowth during g the
1990s whilee IT contributed the mosst in the 1980s and 2000   0s. Labour pprovided thee highest
contribution
           ns to output growth
                        g       in the          nal, scientific
                                     e profession             c, and technnical services
industry unttil 2008, whe
                        en IT input g
                                    growth became the main    n contributorr.

IT capital income shares
IT capital co
            omprises a relatively
                       r          low
                                    w share of to
                                                otal industry income, eveven for those
                                                                                     e
industries where
           w     IT cap
                      pital servicess make a strrong contribuution to laboour productiv
                                                                                      vity (see
figure 5).

Finance and    d insurance had the hig hest share of   o income atttributable too IT capital by
                                                                                             b 2011,
but still lesss than one-fiffth of its tota
                                          al industry in
                                                       ncome. Growwth in IT cappital income was
strong durin  ng the 1980ss for informa   ation, media, and telecommunicatioons, and for finance
                                                                                             f
and insuran   nce. Capital income grow    wth accelera ated again fo
                                                                   or 1996–20001 for inform mation,
media, and telecommun      nications, an  nd from 199 97–2005 for finance andd insurance.

Figure 5
5 IT capital income shares, selected industries

Figure 6 shoows that, wh hen compariing IT capita   al income with non-IT caapital income (ie
removing thhe degree off labour inten  nsity), IT capital incomee has becom me more imp portant in
the capital mix
            m over time. While the   e IT income share for professional, sscientific, annd
technical seervices is the
                         e lowest of tthe three inddustries, it ha
                                                                 as more incoome attributtable
from IT capital relative to
                         t its non-IT
                                    T capital than  n the other industries coonsidered he
                                                                                        ere.

                                                         25
You can also read