GUIDE TO COST PREDICTABILITY IN CONSTRUCTION: AN ANALYSIS OF ISSUES AFFECTING THE ACCURACY OF CONSTRUCTION COST ESTIMATES
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Guide to Cost Predictability
in Construction:
An analysis of
issues affecting the accuracy
of construction cost estimates
Prepared by the
Joint Federal Government / Industry Cost Predictability Taskforce
November 2012Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates November 2012 Table of Contents Note from the Taskforce Chairman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Executive Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Taskforce Participation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Introduction to the Cost Predictability Issue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Issues and Considerations in Cost Predictability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Cost Estimate Variance Matrix. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Recommendations for Improved Cost Predictability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Postscript . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Appendix 1 – Classes of Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Appendix 2 – Documents Recommended for Estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Appendix 3 – Qualifications for Estimators and Cost Consultants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Appendix 4 – Sources of Information and References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Enquiries should be directed to: Canadian Construction Association www.cca-acc.com This guide is the product of the individual taskforce members’ collective input and does not purport to express or represent the position of their respective organizations or associations. It reflects recommended industry practices. Readers are cautioned that this guide does not deal with any specific fact situation or circumstance. This guide does not constitute legal or other professional advice. The taskforce and their respective organizations or associations do not accept any responsibility or liability for loss or damage which may be suffered as a result of its use or interpretation. Copyright 2012 Must not be copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the Joint Federal Government / Industry Cost Predictability Taskforce.
Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Note from the Taskforce Chairman associated degree of accuracy of the estimate can be
expected to vary accordingly.
What at first appeared to be a relatively simple task to
review the various and mostly obvious causes of poor For this reason the taskforce concluded that the previously
cost predictability increasingly grew in each taskforce accepted degree of accuracy for Class A estimates should
meeting as more and more variables were raised and be expanded from +/- 5% to a range of +/- 5 to 10%, to
reviewed. As the topics for consideration ranged from accommodate the range of such non-standard projects,
first bid comparison, whether low, median or average, to with a similar variation applied to the other classes of
cost growth during construction, to final project cost, and estimates. As well, for projects involving significant
even whether to review various “soft costs” to the extent renovations, or challenging geographic, environmental, or
that they may have an effect on cost predictability, etc., other unique circumstances, a further allowance should be
it soon became apparent that a clear and rigid definition analyzed and included.
of the scope of the taskforce had to be established.
This would limit the discussions to achieve definable In addition, whereas the previous cost predictability
recommendations relating to the original rationale for guidelines were related primarily to the degree of design
the taskforce, which was to analyze the increasingly large development completion, it became obvious that with the
variances being experienced by PWGSC, DCC, and others increasing variety and complexity of various projects, the
between their “pre-tender estimate” and the subsequent potential accuracy of estimates must equally recognize
contractors’ bids. the relationship to the level of complexity of any particular
project, or its level of estimating difficulty. For this reason, a
The basic question whether such increasing variances Cost Estimate Variance Matrix was developed, to recognize
are the result of the construction industry’s “pricing the combination of both these dimensions in arriving at a
strategies”, or of an inaccurate or insufficient estimating reasonable estimate variance.
process, was soon concluded to be the latter, since with
few exceptions, under a normal and competitive bidding Finally, since estimating and bidding is not an exact
process actual bid prices are generally the best indicator of science, the expectation for estimate accuracy must be
the prevailing competitive market conditions for a specific realistic, in relation to the particular type of project and in
project at that time. Upon further review it was also found proportion to the quality and time expended to produce
that the owners’ estimating process was seldom properly a specific level of estimate accuracy. But at any level,
completed up to a reasonable Class A level, and in most adherence to the recommendations of this guide should
cases only up to Class B, or even a brought forward Class C! definitely improve cost predictability.
Also, it must be recognized that each project is unique In this respect it bears repeating the obvious, that to
and different from the previous one in varying degrees. achieve a realistic Class A estimate requires the following
Although many projects may be relatively repetitive and ingredients:
“similar”, such as “standard” office buildings or schools, 1. Class A professional and experienced estimating
many others are non-standard and individually complex, qualifications;
unique, one-of-a-kind, remotely located, etc., or any
combination thereof, such as leading edge lab facilities, 2. Class A completed project design documentation; and
historic building renovations, environmentally challenged 3. Class A time, sufficient to produce the required estimate
locations and increasingly green, sustainable, and more analysis with accuracy.
innovative structures and systems.
Lastly, the taskforce was fortunate to have the benefit of
Further, since the preparation of project estimates has senior, experienced, informed, articulate, and independent
typically been based on historical information, such cross-sector representatives; I sincerely want to thank each
information may be outdated, or perhaps not even exist of them for their effective and dedicated participation in
for certain individual types of projects; therefore, the the production of this guide.
1Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Executive Summary • recognize the degree of accuracy of the estimate being
used.
Large discrepancies between pre-tender estimates and
actual bids for construction have a serious impact on A large number of factors contribute to variances in
the viability of a project. Owners, architects, engineers, estimate to bid prices. This guide will provide practical
cost consultants, contractors and subcontractors all advice and discuss the primary ways to improve the cost
have a vested interest in ensuring a high degree of cost predictability of projects. The consequence of a failure is
predictability. This issue, raised at the Federal Government often a cancelled project.
/ Industry Real Property Advisory Council, resulted in the
formation of a Cost Predictability Taskforce, to research and The Cost Estimate Variance Matrix
recommend solutions to this increasing problem. As shown in the Cost Estimate Variance Matrix, the
accuracy of estimates varies throughout the project design
Defining Cost Predictability cycle and according to the complexity of the specific
For the purpose of this guide, “cost predictability” is project, and several other factors that may be unique to
defined as “the prediction of a construction cost estimate, a project. Depending on the class of estimate and the
as compared to the median of competitive bids”, where complexity of the project, variances can range from 5% to
“prediction” is defined as “an assertion on the basis of data, 30%. If additional unique aspects or risks apply to a project,
theory or experience, but in advance of proof”. these variances should be analyzed and increased by an
appropriate amount.
As such this guide will apply only to procurement
processes that typically require the submission of a total Improving Cost Predictability
project bid, such as a design-bid-build or design-build Early in the project life cycle, i.e., before the requirements
process, and although not directly applicable to the are well-defined and before accurate estimates are
construction management process, it could also be applied available, owners will need to set budgets. The challenge
to the sequential trade contractors’ bids. for all stakeholders is to ensure that the appropriate scope
and cost management framework is adopted to ensure
Similarly, many of the same underlying principles could the desired, or required, degree of cost predictability. The
also be applied to the further development of cost following recommendations should be considered to
predictability guides for the increasing range of P3 and improve the cost predictability between the final pre-
lease/purchase procurement process variations. tender estimate and actual bid prices:
Taskforce Analysis Before Tender
There is no common statistical database on variances • include sufficient contingency to address market
between pre-tender estimates and final bid results for volatility, timing of construction, and other exclusions in
the Canadian construction market. However, members the estimate;
of the task force shared internal data that showed up
to 40% of tenders had low bids that varied, either up or • consider possible scope variations in the tender as a
down, by more than 30% from the pre-tender estimate contingency to adjust to the owner’s budget;
and fewer than 20% of tenders had bids within 10% of • give designers sufficient time to finalize 100% bid
the estimate. While this was not the case with all of the documents for the pre-tender estimate; and
taskforce members, all agreed that cost predictability was • allow cost consultants or estimators sufficient time to
an increasingly serious issue facing the industry. prepare and finalize pre-tender estimates.
It was agreed that the following key actions are required to During Tender
ensure better cost predictability: • keep the cost consultant involved during the tender
• engage qualified professionals to prepare estimates; period;
• use appropriate economic models in the estimating • monitor addenda changes and bidding environment;
process; and
• ensure that the project approval process recognizes • revise estimates to reflect scope changes and addenda.
cost predictability issues; After Tender
• include scope revision mechanisms in the project • involve the cost consultant in the post tender review;
approval process; and
2Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
• analyze bid results against estimates for lessons Taskforce Participation*
learned;
Chairman
• consider value engineering to improve bid versus John Westeinde, P.Eng
estimate variations; and President
• keep a record of historical estimate versus bid data. Westeinde Construction Ltd.
Cost Predictability Guarantee Architect
There is no guarantee that pre-tender estimates will Alexander Rankin, OAA FRAIC ARIBA MRIAI FCDBI RCA
precisely match bid prices, just as there is no expectation Partner
that all bid prices will be the same. In reality, there are too GRC Architects
many variables influencing final bid prices to expect 100% Engineer
accuracy. However, following the recommendations in this Michael Allen, P.Eng
guide will help improve and define the cost predictability President
of projects. Adjeleian Allen Rubeli Limited
Cost Consultant
Art Maw
President
Hanscomb Limited
Contractor
Spencer Hagan, P.Eng GSC
District Construction Risk Manager
PCL Constructors Canada Inc.
Public Works and Government Services Canada
Shawn Gardner
Senior Director, AFD Directorate, Acquisitions Branch
Defence Construction Canada
Ron deVries, P.Eng
Senior Vice President, Operations
Michael Freemark
Senior Technical Advisor
Canadian Museum of Nature
Maria K. Somjen B.Arch. LL.B. (on leave from PWGSC)
Project Director, VMMB Renewal Project
Canadian Construction Association
Eric Lee
Senior Director, Industry Practices
* NOTE: The positions and titles of the taskforce members are those which
they held during the earlier development of this guide, and may have
changed by the time it went to print.
3Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Introduction to the Cost Predictability the final cost. As well, such factors as occasional mistakes
Issue (large or small), aggressive or conservative bidding
for individual bidders’ reasons, misinterpretations or
The problem of cost predictability was introduced by misunderstandings of the bid documents, and various risk
Public Works and Government Services Canada (PWGSC) at control procedures also play a significant role in the final
the joint Government of Canada / Canadian Construction outcome.
Association (CCA) meeting in April 2003, where the
departments identified a need to improve the accuracy Bid closing involves an amalgam of prices being received
of its pre-tender construction estimates (Class A estimate) by several individuals within each firm that must be
which were increasingly resulting in variances of greater evaluated and entered, the majority of which takes place
than 30% from the bids received. This issue was delegated within the last one-half hour period before bid closing,
to the Project Delivery Working Group of the Federal with major decisions happening up to the final minutes
Government / Industry Real Property Advisory Council and seconds. Meanwhile, similar processes happen at the
for action and it was concluded that the problem of cost multi subcontractor and supplier levels.
predictability was a generic problem, not only on federal
In addition, local or national construction industries are
government projects, but also for private industry projects.
becoming increasingly affected by global trends and
Therefore, it was subsequently decided to establish a
influences, which can create significant and unexpected
separate taskforce to review this issue to:
volatility and unpredictability in the construction
• analyze the problems inherent in the cost predictability marketplace. Recent examples of such market volatility
process; would include:
• review procedures to improve cost predictability; • The volatility in the 2004 marketplace relating to
• develop a guide paper with recommendations to structural steel and all steel-based commodity pricing.
improve cost predictability; and • The abnormal cost escalation in BC during 2006 leading
• develop procedures to monitor future cost up to the Vancouver Olympics.
predictability improvements over an initial five year • The unprecedented run-up in almost all construction
period. material prices in 2008, especially for steel and oil-based
products, across the world.
As a basic premise, the taskforce first noted that every
construction project is unique and different from the last. • The equally unprecedented and sudden global financial
Even if some buildings or projects may appear to be similar, crisis, and resulting potential temporary collapse of
circumstances such as varying site conditions, seasonal both the commodity and construction markets in 2008-
weather changes, different scheduling requirements, or 2009.
local practices, can create significant estimating and cost
All of this volatility requires an assessment of risk on the
differences. Even where buildings could be substantially
part of each and every contractor, subcontractor and
similar, such as primary schools, there is still a tendency
sub-subcontractor who endeavour to strategize and plan
to redesign every next one for architectural diversity,
for eventualities to establish a costing framework for the
technical advances, or other reasons.
project duration, which could be many months or years,
In general, there is no easy way to establish consistent pre- that fits within specific corporate risk tolerance levels, while
tender estimates for even the most common construction at the same time striving to be the low bidder.
projects that could form a reasonable market-specific
Therefore, as a result of this multi-variable bid process, it is
and time-sensitive database for construction costs. While
not uncommon to see a range of variations in contractor
there are cost indices available, they are only useful in
bid prices. Generally this range can be up to 10%; however,
establishing utilitarian baselines, not in constructing an
for smaller and one of a kind projects this range can be as
overall estimate that is within 5% of the median bid.
high as 50% or more.
A complete estimate is a composite of literally thousands
The taskforce also found that many existing budgeting
of individual estimate items and considerations, including
and project approval processes do not permit a sufficient
construction techniques, innovative ideas, site supervision,
degree of flexibility to deal with large variances in bid
productivity factors, front-end specifications, and
prices. This should be internally reviewed by each owner,
scheduling, etc., all of which play crucial roles in arriving at
4Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
in order to provide for sufficient organizational flexibility to market considerations, and costing variables inherent
be able to mitigate the results of such potential estimating in the estimating process, the taskforce has selected
variances and market volatility. the median bid approach as the most appropriate and
professionally attainable for comparison of pre-tender
The taskforce also needed to consider whether the pre- estimates within this guide.
tender cost estimates should be targeted for the eventual
low contractor’s bid, which often results in the actual In summary, it must be recognized that given the myriad
contract award price, or whether it would be more prudent of variables that affect the contractor’s bid at any given
to target for the “median” of the various contractors’ bids, location and at any given time, it is highly problematic
which is generally considered to be closer to the “true” cost for any one individual or agency, no matter how qualified
of the project. or “in tune” with local conditions and market influences,
to arrive at a consistent and accurate pre-bid estimate
Notwithstanding the obvious and necessary consideration for construction services. Perhaps the best that should
attributed to the low bid value in any tendering scenario, reasonably be expected from such pre-bid estimates is a
there is a fundamental difficulty with attempting to reasonable approximation of costs that reflect the many
target the low bid as the point of comparison in a cost variables including the size, scope, complexity, and locality
predictability analysis. It is almost impossible to attempt of a specific project.
to predict the effects of particularly innovative or unique
bidding solutions on the part of individual bidders on Nevertheless, given the significant and apparently
any particular project because one or more may include: increasing variations between the bid and pre-tender
possible labour or specialized equipment advantages, estimate, it is necessary for the industry to analyze
locational or logistical advantages, a particularly aggressive and improve on the various factors that affect cost
bidding approach by anyone bidder (“this is my job” predictability. Within this context, and based on an
attitude), and even occasional mistakes etc. All of these understanding of how this component of the industry
items may combine to generate the low bid or to the operates, issues and considerations are recommended
contrary, if none of these competitive bidding solutions are for review and guidance during the estimate preparation
applied, may result in a high bid. process.
In order to balance the effects of such bidding solutions
with an understanding of the myriad of logistical elements,
5Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Issues and Considerations in Cost are produced and monitored in several ways. Therefore
Predictability ensure that all stakeholders and government departments
maintain the latest estimate provided by the cost
1. Consideration of Local or Regional Market consultant.
Influences
3. Cost Estimates Should Be Prepared during Tender
The preparation of pre-tender estimates should consider
Period for Changes to Schedule or Addenda
such specific factors as:
Request updates of the estimate during the bidding
• the number of bidders on the project, and in each trade; period. Ensure that each addendum is accompanied by
• the number of other projects being tendered at the a cost (and schedule) impact on the original estimate
same time; before the addendum is released. Ensure that the change
is acceptable to the owner and not simply a “wish” list
• the likelihood that certain trades will only bid to certain
from the design team or a stakeholder. Keep in mind that
contractors;
schedule changes may also result in cost changes. This
• complicated phasing of the project; applies particularly to the Class A estimate stage.
• pre-qualification of contractors;
4. Incomplete/Uncoordinated Bid Documents,
• heritage issues; Causing Different Interpretations
• available time periods for tendering and construction; Improve the quality of tender documents and allow
sufficient time for consultants to prepare and coordinate
• timing of the tender; and
them. Complete a checklist for both constructability and
• political mood. coordination prior to tender. Addenda should be kept to
a minimum, ideally with no more than three. Note that
The selection of a cost consultant should be reviewed to
uncoordinated bid documents eventually result in change
ensure previous experience with similar complexity and
orders. Thus, past quality of tender documents could be
circumstances of the particular project, and to reflect a
used as criterion in the future performance evaluation of
greater need for additional risk analysis specifically related
design consultants.
to construction hard costs.
5. Failure to Recognize the Appropriate Class of
The pre-tender estimate should show the various
Estimate
influences that have been considered and the “factor”
applied for these influences. A pre-tender estimate should An earlier, less accurate, Class C or B estimate may
clearly indicate what is “in” and what is “out”, and why, so sometimes be passed off as the pre-tender estimate, so
that some of the “out” items can be analyzed and added to ensure that a proper pre-tender estimate is prepared,
a Risk Management Plan. developed from the 100% tender documents before
tendering.
There is often a failure to recognize how a competitive
marketplace, or lack thereof, may affect bid prices. 6. Fast -tracking Projects or Proceeding with a Project
Cost consultants should analyze market volatility and before It Is Well Defined
anticipated trends. Confirm with the cost consultant that With a fixed end date, there is often a push to start work
they have consulted with local construction associations, on a project long before all parameters are defined. This
as well as with local contractors and/or sub-contractors, may cause a great deal of cycling, with the increased
as contractors who are regularly bidding on projects are potential for incorrect estimates. For example, fast-
best able to evaluate market volatility. Note that political tracking may result in no pre-tender estimate. When it is
decisions can also temporarily impact the local competitive determined that the estimates are wrong, the project is
market. often well-advanced, and therefore difficult to realign or
stop. Consequently, one should allow sufficient time for the
2. Current and Accurate Information Should Be preparation of estimates, or increase design contingencies
Shared between Stakeholders using proper risk management analysis. Also, keep in mind
Obtain concurrence from all stakeholders that the same that different procurement methods will have an impact
information is being used, otherwise stakeholders on project estimates.
may use different numbers as reference points. During
public construction projects several types of budgets
6Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Including the cost estimator in the fast track stream, Where cost escalation contingencies have been included,
in which estimates are upgraded on a regular basis, they may only refer to the bid date; this is particularly
will ensure that construction costs are within budget applicable in relation to longer duration projects. If
throughout the design and construction process by possible, shorten the time from conception to completion,
continuously updating the budget and estimates as the or include proper allowance for labour and material price
design progresses and true costs are identified through escalation.
the progressive bidding process. Similarly, corresponding
reductions in contingencies should be made as a result 10. Mistake of Designing to Maximum of the Budget
of the continuous risk management of the project. All Construction budgets are living documents and are very
members of the design and construction team should be fluid. Therefore, early budgets are identified at a very rough
kept fully informed each time the budget and resulting level against which the initial design is done. However, this
estimates are updated. initial budget should be reduced by project contingencies,
etc., to more properly determine a conservative design
7. Project Objectives or Program Not Clearly Defined budget.
when Developing the Initial Budget
Allow for the redefinition of the project scope and budget 11. No Consideration or Misuse of Data about Similar
when project objectives or program are not clearly defined, Projects
then adjust estimates. Employ the integrated design Consider the history of similar projects, including factors
process; in other words, ensure that all stakeholders have such as: the original estimate, final costs, market influences
input from concept onward. at the time of the original project, and variations between
the previous project’s scope and the current one. When
8. Scope Creep - Growth in Project Objectives or using budgets from previous projects one should take into
Programs during Design Development account lessons learned. This applies in particular to the
To manage scope creep and absorb its impact: Class D Estimate stage.
• immediately adjust for any changes; 12. Use of Single-source Product Specifications
• use value engineering techniques with input from When dealing with specialized trades or products,
various sectors; performance specifications should be utilized. Single-
source products should be avoided whenever possible
• ensure that the introduction of additional project
and should only be used when stakeholders are fully
requirements, such as waste management,
knowledgeable about the lack of competition or where
sustainability, LEED certification, etc., is analyzed before
there is only one capable source to undertake the work. In
being incorporated.
such cases, the budget will need to be increased to reflect
9. Proper Use of Contingencies the limited source of the product providers by increasing
this particular item’s cost above normal pricing levels.
Develop a database of contingencies that includes realistic
While a competitive bid will usually result in a lower overall
design, project and construction contingencies based on
cost, this must be weighed against quality, standards,
building type, size, location, etc.
maintenance, etc.
It is not sufficient for estimators to list the risk factors,
13. Actual Errors in the Estimate or Bid Preparation
they must also quantify them. Therefore, cost estimators
and quantity surveyors must clearly describe all the Double check and overview all estimates before
qualifications, exclusions, and assumptions to the owner in submission to avoid making errors. Look at rewarding firms
a way that can be understood, e.g., this risk may increase with such qualities as a good history of estimating or team
the estimate by a specific amount. experience during the consultant selection stage.
The following two escalation contingencies should be 14. Ensure That the Estimate Is Produced by a Qualified
taken into consideration: Individual
Ensure that qualified and experienced personnel, e.g., CIQS
• market escalation up to the bid; and or Gold Seal qualifications, are used for budget preparation
• embedded escalation within bid prices, i.e., the real and conceptual estimation. Identify in the original
reflection of contractor future price escalation for consultant selection the qualification and experience
labour and material during the construction period.
7Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
requirements that are specific to each particular project 17. Pressure to Meet Limited Budget
and evaluate accordingly. Estimates should not be altered to meet limited budgets.
If the estimate exceeds the budget, owners should achieve
15. Outdated Estimate Used
the intended result by either increasing the budget or
There may be a time lapse between initial pre-tender modifying the scope of work.
estimate development and the project proceeding;
therefore, projects and estimates that are delayed 18. Mistake of Reducing Project Schedule at the
or shelved need to be updated to make the proper Investigation Stage
allowances for current market conditions. Successive In an attempt to speed up the project and get it out
estimates must be updated accordingly, and also include to tender sooner, consultant investigations are often
for any additional addenda issued. shortened or eliminated. This often leads to surprises
during construction when it is more difficult and costly to
16. No Consideration for Normal Cost Inflation
react to them.
Consideration for industry-specific cost inflation should be
given. Note that government inflation forecast sheets only Ensure that consultants have sufficient time and
predict stable flat line inflation and spikes in construction compensation to do thorough investigations of the project
inflation are typically only adjusted after the inflationary designs and costs.
event has happened.
8Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Cost Estimate Variance Matrix
The following matrix has been developed to provide a range of estimate variance (plus or minus), based on the level of
construction documents completion, in combination with an evaluation of the level of complexity of the project:
COST ESTIMATE VARIANCE MATRIX ± %
Class of Estimates Based On Project Complexity
LOW HIGH
D Concept sketch design 20 30
C 33% Design development 15 20
B 66% Design development 10 15
A 100% complete tender documents 5 10
Unique Projects, Circumstances, or Risks Varies Add to
Above %
• Project complexity recognizes the different degrees of • The matrix allows for the interpolation of varying
difficulty in estimating, from a low complexity normal, percentages of accuracy, corresponding to the selected
standard, typical, and repetitive project, through to level of complexity horizontally, and corresponding
medium complexity, and up to high complexity projects to the level of construction documents completion
such as structurally or aesthetically-variant projects, vertically.
leading-edge environmental projects, full-service • In addition, aside from the level of complexity of
hospital facilities, complex mechanical or electrical any specific project, there may also exist unique
systems, etc. circumstances, even for a low complexity project, such
• Although the majority of projects will fall within this as a severe geographic or climatic environment, very
range, occasionally unique, one-of-a-kind or first- difficult site conditions, or an extremely demanding
of-its-kind projects, such as the Canadian Museum energy requirement, etc. Such unique circumstances
of Civilization, a Gehry / Guggenheim museum, the should also be individually evaluated.
Chinese Olympic Bird Cage, the elevated Norman • Another potential variance should be individually
Foster Bridge in France, etc. cannot be predicted within evaluated if a project involves significant renovations,
any specific predetermined percentage accuracy, or historic restorations.
and will require project-specific evaluation. Similarly,
components of an otherwise lower complexity project • And lastly, commercial or competitive market
may require unique consideration, such as the sloping conditions will always require particular evaluation.
concrete walls of The Canadian War Museum, or unique
acoustical requirements in a concert hall, for example.
9Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Recommendations for Improved Cost • quantifying and costing exclusions in the estimate to
Predictability accurately reflect the complete project scope;
• considering the costs associated with similar, previously
Recommendation 1
completed projects;
Utilize qualified estimating personnel throughout the life
• the higher than average risk in terms of post award
of the project—budget preparation, design, tendering,
scope change that is often the result of fast-tracking
post-tender review and construction phases.
projects; and
The use of unqualified estimators will result in inaccurate • labour, materials, financial, or geographic market
estimates and, hence, inappropriate budgets. volatility or other factors anticipated prior to tender
that can have a significant effect.
Recommendation 2
Ensure all stakeholders have input early and often Recommendation 5
throughout the life of a project and that they continue A widely usable database for the Canadian market, that
to work together to identify and mitigate risk factors. can be properly interpreted and used by the estimating
Clear definition of project objectives, program and scope industry, is required, especially for publicly funded
will avoid potentially expensive surprises, such as scope construction that has essentially no market-force
growth. comparison. Better historical information would lead to a
higher degree of success earlier in the process. All levels
Recommendation 3
of governments, who would benefit from the database,
Give designers sufficient time to finalize bid documents.
should provide resources.
Provide sufficient time for estimating professionals to
review 100% finished documents and prepare a final Class To develop and maintain a usable database one should
A estimate. take into consideration the current and future construction
economic outlook. As such, an analysis would have to be
Upon completion of the tender documents, sufficient time
performed along with referencing the database.
must be allowed for professionals to accurately take off
quantities and prepare a fully detailed Class A estimate. If Recommendation 6
the drawings are not at 100%, or the cost consultant is not Include sufficient contingency to address market volatility,
given sufficient time, this should be reflected by increased timing of construction, and other exclusions in the
risk contingency. Time must be sufficient to also analyze estimate. The owner should understand all exclusions
current market conditions, including what other projects through detailed discussions with the cost consultant who
are being tendered that may affect the bids on the project. should try to quantify exclusions.
Recommendation 4 Recommendation 7
Ensure project budgets consider all essential factors and During tender:
include or adjust for them when applicable. • ensure tender ready documents are complete and
coordinated;
The essential factors include:
• avoid single source specifications, i.e., use alternates or
• the percentage variance between the project budget negotiation clauses to permit scope revisions;
and potential project cost for the various classes of
• revise estimates during the tender period to reflect all
estimates;
addenda; and
• local influences, e.g., a shortage of skilled labour
• keep the cost consultant involved during the tender
will cause an increase in the cost of the associated
period.
service(s), whereas an abundance of skilled labour will
result in a more competitive bid; Recommendation 8
• making adjustments to account for any time lapse that After tender, analyze bid results against estimates to
occurs between the initial budget development and the maintain a lessons learned database to avoid repeating
project proceeding to tender; mistakes in future projects.
• the seasonal timing of construction;
10Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Postscript And coincidental with these advanced procurement
processes, the importance of life cycle cost analysis has also
Although reference has been made in this guide to “the become increasingly evident as a significant component in
increasing range of procurement process variations”, the owner’s project decision process.
the adoption of various procurement methods different
from the historically standard design/bid/build method However, in all these various procurement processes the
on which this guide is primarily focused has not only basic principles of this guide will continue to be applicable,
increased, but in fact accelerated, and other as yet but as in any “living document”, will require appropriate
undeveloped variations will no doubt continue to appear. adaptation to suit the particular process. For example,
although these advanced procurement processes can
Since the initiation of the study for this guide, the design- provide increasing collaboration and more appropriate
build process has been increasingly adopted, to the extent risk-sharing and tolerance between all the stakeholders
that it is now also a “standard” method. Followed by the in a project, and associated improved cost predictability,
P3 process, which in its most basic form is a combination they also require even better initial project scope definition
of design/build and financing, plus facilities management, as part of the owner’s role and responsibilities, advanced
and most recently the BIM (Building Information Modeling) “conceptual” estimating ability and experience by the
process, which with its IT systems support enables perhaps contractors, and a more collaborative mindset by all
the ultimate collaborative design/build environment, as stakeholders.
well as the latest IPD (Integrated Project Delivery) system.
11Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Appendix 1 − Classes of Estimates
Understanding Estimates
Information on estimating and quantity surveying is available through the website of the Canadian Institute of Quantity
Surveyors (CIQS) at www.ciqs.org.
As is evident from the following estimate classification chart, there are some differences of process, usage and terminology,
between the various associations, government departments, and cost consultants and estimators regarding the
percentage design completion attributed to the ABCD estimate classifications.
However, since the cost estimating process should be relatively continuous during the entire design process, resulting in
possibly several levels of Class C and Class B estimate upgrades, for the purpose of clarity in the Cost Estimate Variance
Matrix, the taskforce has assigned “benchmark” levels of design completion for a Class C estimate at 33%, and Class B
estimate at 66%.
For relatively complex or sizeable projects, four categories of estimates should typically be prepared as shown in the Cost
Estimate Classification chart and the Cost Estimate Variance Matrix.
The final Class A estimate or pre-tender estimate should be based on tender-ready documents, and include for all current
market conditions, material price fluctuations, labour conditions, and current market trends. It should very closely
approximate the related bids submitted by the construction industry, and therefore, for new construction projects, can be
expected to be within 5% to 10% of the median of competitive bids.
In this context, it is critically important to have a good understanding of the different estimating processes used, between
the cost consultant’s virtual estimate program, and the contractor’s actual bid preparation process, in order to fully
comprehend the potential for significant variances between the pre-tender estimate and the contractors’ bids.
COST ESTIMATE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEMS
AACE Class 4 Class 3 Class 1 Class 1
DND Indicative Substantive
RAIC Sketch Design Construction Tender
design development documents documents
GOC B
Cost level C A
0.0 12.5 25.0 Design Documents Percentage Complete 95.0 100.0
30.0 25.0 Cost Estimate Accuracy (+ or - Percentage) 15.0 10.0
Legend
AACE Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering
DND Department of National Defence
GOC Government of Canada
RAIC Royal Architectural Institute of Canada
12Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Class D Estimate contract. The estimate is a determination of the fair market
A Class D estimate is generally an estimate based on the value for the construction of the project, not a prediction
initial functional program and broad concept approach. of the low bid.
Usually by this time, the site and program have been
Owners and project managers need to carefully read
approved. Initially, the owner may guess at the amount
the exclusions and inclusions list, as well as the cost
of budget available which figure may be low due to a
considerations of the cost estimate. These should
lack of up-to-date cost advice. Then after initial design
be reviewed with the cost consultant along with the
concepts, consultants prepare an order of magnitude
remainder of the cost report.
estimate comprised of an elemental summary and based
on a rough cost per square metre. This enables verification Class B Estimate
of the order of magnitude budget, as a reflection of a This is a construction document estimate based on
program and building envelope on a particular site. This working drawings and more detailed dimensioning
often results in a modification of the budget or program, from computer generated drawings and systems with
or both. The accuracy of this estimate is generally +/- 20 preliminary plans for mechanical and electrical. Generally,
to 30% accurate depending on the complexity of the such items as structural grid, element sizes, and weight
project and whether the project is new construction on a are all determined. The outline specifications of all systems
greenfield site or a renovation. The cost consultant should and materials are available. The initial Class B estimate is
provide advice on design and pricing allowances for items upgraded from 33% during design development, which
not yet known, as well as risk allowances. Inflation due depending on the project can be at 50%, 66% or 95%.
to the length of time for working document production,
as well as the duration of construction should also be Class A Estimate
included in the unit rates. This estimate should contain the This estimate can only be produced after the construction
following contingencies: design, pricing, bid, construction, documents are 100% complete and a minimum of two
escalation, and scope. This estimate usually forms the basis weeks following the completion of drawings is required
of an agreement between the owner and the consultant. to prepare the estimate. This estimate is of sufficient
quality and reliability as to warrant approval from the
Class C Estimate
owner to proceed with tender, as it is based on detailed
This is a schematic design (construction documents) systems and component design and takes into account
development estimate, where the program is set; the all project objectives and deliverables. It requires that
consultants have provided plans, elevations, sections, project systems be designed and specified to completion
and an approximate palette of materials, as well as a based on a realistic construction schedule and accurate
concept design to allow form and spaces, and the design material and labour costs. As such, it is the final estimate
is generally completed up to 33%. The cost consultant can before tender call. Typically, the total forecast is presented
now measure drawings more accurately for an elemental in an elemental format or trade format and includes all
estimate which can provide a framework to modify or actual associated fees and costs and carries an expected
refine parts of the design. There may be as many as three degree of accuracy of 5% to 10%. The number of bidders,
or more concept designs that require comparative costing. the market conditions, non-standard materials, and non-
From the documentation and information provided, where standard designs can affect this accuracy. There are some
possible quantities of all major elements are assessed and exceptional and unique projects which are politically
measured and priced at rates considered competitive for prominent, historic, or of an unusual complexity whose
the particular project under stipulated lump sum form of Class A estimate may vary by more than 10%.
13Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Appendix 2 − Documents Recommended parking, snow removal/storage areas, and other major
for Estimates exterior program requirements
• Provide design project plans showing relative
1. Recommended for a Class D Estimate
disposition of accommodation areas, circulation
• The final functional program, with adjustments as patterns, floor layouts, service rooms and spaces, etc.
required and containing the following:
• Provide design elevations and sections indicating
o The client’s philosophy, values, goals, and desired the basic design approach materials and aesthetic
“image” philosophy
o Community goals and concerns • Provide perspectives and/or a model and
o Explicit space requirements for the future building, • Provide horizontal and vertical space relationships.
including:
Landscaping
- Definition of the activities which will take place in
Provide plans showing:
each space
• Hard and soft landscaping
- Functional relationships of the spaces
• Planting concept
- Functional adjacencies relative to programs
provided • Pedestrian pathways
- Expansion capacity beyond program • Site furniture including flagpoles
- Telecommunications and connectivity • Preliminary exterior lighting and signage layout and
requirements report • Amenity areas.
- Security requirements report Structural
- Site requirements, including: Provide the following:
~ Parking • A recommended structural system, including the
structural frame materials, the structural grid layout,
~ Circulation
and the foundation
~ Orientation
• A summary of alternative systems
~ Public access
• The design loads applicable to the building and
~ Barrier-free access
• Foundation recommendations, based on existing
~ Noise geotechnical information.
- Ecological, environmental concerns. Seismic
• Other requirements including: • The structure is to be designed for the minimum base
o Regulatory issues such as zoning and building code shear as defined by the National Building Code of
requirements Canada.
o Other preliminary requirements from authorities Mechanical
having jurisdiction. • Incorporate in the submission a schedule of
requirements, including a listing of all areas and rooms,
• Broad volumetric concept and plans showing relative
providing a description of the specific mechanical
disposition of major accommodation areas.
requirements and functions for each
2. Recommended for a Class C Estimate • Identify the volume of outdoor air to be supplied per
Architectural Sketch, Design, Design Development person
• Provide site analysis, showing all key site-related • Identify the delivery rate of air supply to occupied
information and drivers which influence design spaces
approach and proposed solution
• Identify the location of the entry point of all mechanical
• Provide design site plan showing proposed project services into the building and
outline, orientation, main accesses, traffic patterns,
14Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
• Identify the area, in square metres, and the location of emergency generator, sewage disposal field, well,
mechanical spaces in the building. etc.)
Electrical o Grading:
• Proposed basic electrical systems of significance to the - Existing and proposed grade elevations
early design
- Storm drainage elements
• Site plan showing location of service entrances
- Cross sections
• Distribution diagram showing single line diagrams to
- Cross sections through the site to show the
distribution centres
relationship of the building to proposed ground
• Floor plan(s) with sample locations of major electrical elevations and planting, to illustrate the three-
equipment and distribution centres dimensional aspects of the site. Include three-
• Lighting layout(s) for typical spaces dimensional sketches of main features
• Distribution systems for lighting, power, and • Provide floor plans of each floor showing all
telecommunications accommodation required, including all necessary
circulation areas, stairs, elevators, etc. and ancillary
• Telephone rooms, conduit, and telecommunication
spaces anticipated for service use. Indicate project
cable system requirements and layout
grids, modules, etc., and dimensions
• Provide an electrical design synopsis, including
• Provide elevations of all exterior project facades
examples for specifications, that describes the electrical
showing all doors, windows, mechanical openings/
work in sufficient detail for assessment.
vents, electrical fixtures, down spouts and trim
Hazardous Waste Management accurately sized and projected from the floor plans and
• Develop a hazardous waste reduction and management sections. Indicate clear floor and ceiling levels and any
plan. concealed roof levels
Commissioning • Cross sections through the project to show floor levels,
• Define commissioning requirements. room heights, inner corridor elevations, etc.
Specifications • Detail sections of walls or special design features
• Preliminary outline specification. requiring illustration and explanation of this stage,
including fireproofing methods.
3. Recommended for a Class B Estimate Landscaping plans as preliminary working drawings
Architectural Preliminary Working Drawings • Planting plan
• Provide working drawings or a site plan showing the
• Hard and soft landscaping (paved, grass and ground
project and existing, or proposed environmental items,
cover areas)
including the following:
• Pedestrian pathways, sidewalks and links
o Traffic patterns:
• Site furniture layout including flagpoles
- Pedestrian,
• Lighting layout
- Vehicular (including drop off area and access to
parking areas), and • Signage
- Access to the garage for vehicles; • Amenity areas
o Parking: • Location of hose bibs
- Employees • Site services layout showing all buried services and
above ground structures such as hydro boxes, hydrants,
- Visitors
generator, septic, well, etc.
- Loading areas
• Draft NMS format specifications for all relevant
- Snow removal and storage areas landscape construction items.
- Other exterior program requirements that
influence overall site design (e.g.: garage,
15Guide to Cost Predictability in Construction: An Analysis of Issues Affecting the Accuracy of Construction Cost Estimates
November 2012
Perspective and Schematics o Complete rating of equipment
• Project perspectives, to show three-dimensional o Maximum short circuit levels on which design is
building with site colors and materials where possible. based
Structural Preliminary Working Drawings o Identification and size of services
• From the geotechnical report that includes borehole • Electrical plans with:
soils information prepare concept foundation design,
And analyze anticipated construction problems and o Floor elevations and room identification
groundwater conditions. o Legend of all symbols used
• Preliminary drawings that indicate the structural o A panel schedule with loadings for each panel
framing system, the grid layout, the location of shear
o Communication system distribution
walls, the location of expansion joints, the structural
frame materials, the foundation and any other o Radio antenna mounting with cabling to distribution
significant or unusual details system
• The design loads applicable to the building. o Radio system distribution
Mechanical Preliminary Working Drawings o All conduit and wire sizes except for minimum which
should be given in specification
• Site plan showing service entrances for water supply,
sanitary and storm drains, location of well and septic o Floor layout for lighting, power, telecommunication
system or connections to public utility services, systems, addressable fire alarm, security, closed
including all key invert elevations circuit television and other systems etc.
• Drawings showing preliminary sizing of ventilation o Schedule for motor controls
including ducting, crossovers and fire dampers cooling o Lighting layout and fixture schedule clearly
and heating systems showing locations, and all major indicating methods of circuiting, switching and
equipment layouts in mechanical rooms fixture mounting
• Drawings of the fire protection systems showing major o Electric heating layout and schedule (if applicable)
components including water storage and pumping for
buildings not on municipal water services o Owners metering and control connections
• Produce preliminary working drawings based on the o Elevator equipment and control (if applicable).
approved design development Provide the following data:
• Update the schedule of requirements • Total connected load
• Provide information of all internal and external energy • Sizing of standby load
loads in sufficient detail to determine the compatibility • Short-circuit and protective device coordination
of the proposal with existing services, approved requirements and calculations showing the ratings of
concept and energy budget equipment used.
• Describe the mechanical systems to be provided Commissioning
and the components of each system. Describe the
• Refine operational and performance requirements as
perceived operation of the mechanical systems
required from the design development
• Describe the building systems controls
• Define commissioning requirements
• Explain the acoustical and sound control measures that
• A commissioning brief describing major commissioning
are to be included in the design. Refer to the sounds
activities for architectural, mechanical, electrical,
rating requirements specified in the space data sheets.
security and integrated system testing.
Electrical Preliminary Working Drawings
Specifications
Provide drawings showing advanced development of the
• Provide a list and draft specification sections of all NMS
following:
sections to be used
• Site plan showing service entrances
• Submit outline specifications for all systems and
• Single line diagram of the power circuits with their principle components and equipment
metering and protection, including:
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