GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021 - The art of the unknown - BDO South Africa

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GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021 - The art of the unknown - BDO South Africa
GLOBAL RISK
 LANDSCAPE
       2021
 The art of the unknown
GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021 - The art of the unknown - BDO South Africa
GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021           3

                                           FOREWORD
                                           By Nigel Burbidge, Partner and Global Chair
                                           of Risk & Advisory Services at BDO

                                           There’s a concept in game theory called a           The bedrock of
                                           “wicked problem”. This is a challenge that
                                                                                           profitable business is sound
                                           is hard to complete because of incomplete,
                                           contradictory, or changing information.         decision-making
                                           There may be no right or wrong solution.

Nigel Burbidge,                            The term perfectly captures the last year       shows that this is more likely to happen
Partner and Global Chair                   in business.                                    in organizations that have managed
Risk & Advisory Services, BDO                                                              to develop a risk-welcoming attitude.
                                           The global pandemic threw markets               Businesses must accept the existence of
                                           into turmoil. Wave after wave of new            unknown risks – and deploy key tools and
                                           challenges hit in quick succession. Sudden      strategies to manage them effectively.
                                           and unprecedented lockdowns, mass
                                           remote working, travel bans, and a deluge       Learning to welcome risk is easier said than
                                           of contradictory information have defined       done. A quarter of respondents admitted
                                           the last year. How long will the crisis last?   their company did not adapt to the pandemic
                                           We don’t know. A truly wicked problem.          as fast as it should – and for 60% of these,
                                                                                           reacting slowly was a conscious decision.
                                           In this worldwide turmoil, some companies       Understandably, senior leaders chose
                                           managed to steady the ship faster than          to wait for more clarity on the situation

1 IN 4
                                           others. Those who managed to make               before agreeing next steps. But when the
                                           fast, effective decisions were better able      information is as contradictory and fast-
                                           to pivot business models and keep staff         changing as it has been during the pandemic,
                                           up-to-date and motivated. Others suffered       waiting for certainty is risky in itself.
                                           from decision paralysis, waiting for news to
                                           inform their next steps.                        So how does a company develop
respondents agreed that their company                                                      agile decision-making? Keeping open
did not adapt to the pandemic as quickly   At BDO we work side by side with                information channels is critical. In
as it could have                           entrepreneurs and industry leaders, and         particular, our survey shows the
                                           wanted to pool knowledge about decision-        importance of trust in facilitating

60%
                                           making in a crisis. What are the best           information flow. Trust empowers
                                           methods? This year’s Global Risk Report has     employees to speak up without fear of
                                           examined the mechanics of decision-making       reprisals. To reap the benefits of this,
                                           under pressure, and in immense uncertainty.     effective business leaders need to foster
                                                                                           a high-trust, low-blame company culture.
                                           The chief finding is the importance of an
of the respondents who agreed, cited       agile mindset. When information is limited      Now the crisis is passing, it’s time to learn the
“uncertainty, or deliberately waiting      and conditions are chaotic, businesses          lessons. The bedrock of profitable business is
for more clarity on the pandemic” as       must be ready to react and adapt to the         sound decision-making. This report makes a
the main obstacle to responsiveness        reality of their situation. Our survey          major contribution to that mission.
GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021 - The art of the unknown - BDO South Africa
4       GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Organizations that embraced risk during the coronavirus
pandemic have coped better with the crisis and
survived, even thrived, despite the global calamity

Businesses are used to having to deal with a    had been “less significant” or “much less        Companies faced many risks in 2020,
wide range of risks and uncertainty, but the    significant” than they expected in April 2020,   with geopolitics, economic slowdown
COVID-19 pandemic wrought disruption on         compared to just 16% of companies that           and increasing competition all showing
an unprecedented level. Lockdowns across        admitted to being risk-averse.                   major upticks. Geopolitical risks caused
the globe shook the foundations of our                                                           the most pressure for all companies
world economy.                                  In fact, 52% of risk-averse firms said they      in 2020, but for those that said the
                                                experienced worse impacts than initially         pandemic’s impact had been much worse
In our sixth survey on risk, BDO set out to     anticipated, while this was the case for         than expected, inflexible process was
discover how senior business leaders coped      only a quarter (25%) of organizations that       the top choice. For the respondents who
with the prolonged uncertainty of 2020, and     welcome risk.                                    categorized themselves as risk averse,
the main obstacles they overcame to be able                                                      inadequate technology was the top reason.
to continue their operations.                   One in four respondents admitted they did
                                                not adapt to the pandemic as quickly as they     The results suggest that anticipating and
We surveyed 500 C-suite business leaders        could have, with 60% citing “uncertainty,        acknowledging major crises helps companies
globally across a wide range of industry        or lack of clarity” as the reason. This was      to react quicker. More than half (53%) of
sectors to find out how they adapted their      much higher in companies that thought            respondents had a global health crisis on
business models and reinvented products         the impact had been “much worse” than            their 2020 risk register, and 58% of these
and services – or if they suffered from         expected (42%), as well as companies that        said this helped them to manage the risk
“disaster paralysis”.                           were risk-averse (49%).                          in reality. A quarter of all respondents said
                                                                                                 “ignoring or failing to acknowledge the
RISK-AVERSE COMPANIES LOSE OUT                  The professional services sector felt            situation” is the greatest inhibitor to fast
                                                the least impact from the pandemic,              and effective decision-making.
The survey’s headline finding is that           with just 3% of respondents stating the
companies which embrace risk responded          impact had been “much worse” than                COPING WITH FUTURE CRISES
better during the pandemic than those who       expected. Family businesses and those in
actively avoid it.                              the leisure and retail sectors experienced       How should long-term risk management
                                                the brunt of the crisis, with 37%, 22%           practices and principles evolve after this
More than half (53%) of risk-welcoming          and 22% saying the impact was worse              extraordinary year? In this report, we set
businesses said the impact of the coronavirus   than they had anticipated.                       out key themes that companies should

The impact of the pandemic compared to initial expectations, by risk appetite
    Much worse     Worse        As expected     Less significant     Much less significant

                                                                                                                                       2%
Risk averse                   25%                      27%                         31%                     14%

Risk welcoming                 8%                      17%                         22%                     46%                         7%
GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021 - The art of the unknown - BDO South Africa
6     GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021                7

consider. These include changing blame
culture and attitudes to risk; the usefulness
of formal risk management practices, such
                                                The pandemic has also strengthened the
                                                relationship between technology and
                                                risk management. The use of up-to-date
                                                                                                governance (ESG) issues, which will last far
                                                                                                beyond COVID-19.                                     CONTENTS AND
as assessments and frameworks; and the
effective use of up-to-date technology in
                                                technology is essential to evolve risk
                                                management from being just reactive to
                                                                                                As Patrick Verkooijen, chief executive of the
                                                                                                Global Center for Adaptation, said in March          KEY HIGHLIGHTS
developing data-driven risk assessments.        proactive and predictive. Yet, only 11% of      2021, the pandemic has been a “wake-up
                                                respondents use technology to forecast          call” for environmental risks and “we are
The data shows that companies with a            future potential risk, while investing in       utterly unprepared for the next crisis –
risk-welcoming mindset respond better to        new technology or accelerating digital          the climate emergency”.
crises. When asked which factors prevented      transformation efforts was the most common
their company from adapting quickly to the      change that companies made in response to       The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated
situation, 24% of risk-averse companies         the pandemic (36% of respondents).              how quickly crises can escalate, and why
cited “stubbornness: choosing to continue                                                       businesses must be ready to react and adapt.

                                                                                                                                                     P8                                                   P12                                          P16
with pre-pandemic plans”. Far fewer of          ACCEPTING RISK                                  Companies can thrive even in the face of
those with different risk mindsets cited the                                                    massive uncertainty by altering their risk
same problem – 15% of risk-takers and 0%        From geopolitical tensions to climate change,   practices to become more accepting of risk. It
                                                companies will inevitably continue to face                                                           The importance of a                                   Eradicating blame culture                   Are risk frameworks
of risk-welcomers.                                                                              is only by seeing crises as positive opportunities
                                                many risks and uncertainties. In particular,                                                         risk-welcoming mindset                                                                            still fit for purpose?
                                                                                                to expand their capabilities, rather than falling
While many factors shape the impact             the pandemic has focused companies’             victim to disaster paralysis, that companies will    Respondents who are “very
of crises, blame culture can significantly      attention on environmental, social and          thrive no matter what hits them.                     confident” about managing
exacerbate problems. Almost a quarter                                                                                                                the COVID-19 risk in the next
(23%) of all respondents said blame culture                                                                                                          six months:                                                                                       90%
stifles their company’s ability to respond
effectively to disruption.
                                                                                                                                                      51%                            Risk welcoming        23%                                         said the events of 2020 have
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       triggered their organization
                                                                                                                                                                                                           believe a blame culture limits              to completely re-evaluate its
Sectors where respondents agreed that                                                                                                                 14%                            Risk averse
                                                                                                                                                                                                           their performance                           risk framework
blame culture is present are also those
where the pandemic’s impact was much

                                                                                                                                                      18
worse than expected. In this report, we
look at who is responsible for a company’s
culture, offer practical solutions to limit a
tendency to blame and how to develop a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        9%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Limited
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            48%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Reactive   P22
positive, risk-welcoming culture.

Formal risk management practices, such
                                                                                                                                                     P                                                                                                 The pandemic’s silver linings

                                                                                                                                                     Risk, technology
as assessments and frameworks, are                                                                                                                   and transformation
invaluable. But has COVID-19 proven them
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 We have improved our
to be too rigid to be effective, when faced                                                                                                          Companies’ use of technology
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 environmental credits,
with unprecedented disruption? Indeed,                                                                                                               in risk management:                                                                                  24%                    for example by reducing
90% of all respondents said the events of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        our carbon footprint
2020 have triggered their organization to
completely re-evaluate its risk framework.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 We have refocused on
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 the social purpose of our
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          20%                    business, and become
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 more socially responsible

                                                                                                                                                                                                   11%                  32%

24%
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Predictive           Proactive

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       P24
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Embracing future risk
of risk-averse companies said that                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Organizations that plan for and manage risk
stubbornness prevented their company                                                                                                                                                                                                                   will be the winners in a post-COVID economy,
from adapting quickly to the pandemic                                                                                                                                                                                                                  no matter what the future holds
GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021 - The art of the unknown - BDO South Africa
8      GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021

THE IMPORTANCE OF A
RISK-WELCOMING MINDSET
Agile businesses with a risk-welcoming attitude
have been able to adapt to challenging
circumstances and beat the pandemic slump

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed huge                risk-averse later conceded they didn’t adapt
cracks in many business models. But it has        to the new business landscape as fast as
accelerated the development of, or even           they could have.
strengthened, others.
                                                  This is largely down to mindset around
Companies that embraced risk were                 the pandemic, says Risk Advisory Services
generally better equipped to deal with            partner at BDO, Emanuel van Zandvoort.
the crisis. Not only were risk-welcoming          “Being risk averse means that companies
firms less affected than they had expected,       are less open to uncertainty – including
51% of them are “very confident”                  opportunities and change. They see the
about managing the COVID-19 risk in the           pandemic as something negative – a risk –
next six months (compared to 14% of risk-         and are less capable of seeing the upside,”
averse organizations).                            he says.

In contrast, businesses that neglected or         So which industries were quickest to adapt
avoided risk suffered. 25% of respondents         and realize the opportunity? What was
cite ignoring or failing to acknowledge the       their success down to? What informed
situation as the biggest inhibitor to fast,       senior management’s timing and reasoning
effective decision-making.                        behind switching to offer new products and
                                                  services? And how did they manage the
The ability of companies to pivot their           continual pressures on their business?
business models quickly and smartly
during the last year has been key. It’s           MANUFACTURERS LEAD THE WAY
also intrinsically correlated to how well
they have handled risk: almost half of            Manufacturing was at the forefront of
respondents who said their companies were         this change, with many firms switching at
                                                  the start to make essential products such

49%
                                                  as ventilators and personal protective
                                                  equipment. It paid dividends, with one in
                                                  four manufacturers reporting the pandemic’s
                                                  impact was less or much less significant than
                                                  expected after major initial pessimism.

of risk-averse respondents agreed that their      “At the start, we were going into the
company did not adapt to the pandemic             unknown and firms tended to fear the
as quickly as it could have                       worst,” says Jack Semple, alliance secretary

25%
                                                  at the Engineering and Machinery Alliance
                                                  of trade associations. “Firms saw projects
                                                  being put on hold across the economy,
                                                  there were strong fears over getting paid
                                                  and employees were worried. In the event,
                                                  however, the picture has started to become
of respondents stated that “ignoring or failing   less gloomy. Invoice payments have held up
to acknowledge the situation” is the biggest      remarkably well and supplies have got back
inhibitor to fast, effective decision-making      on track.”
GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021 - The art of the unknown - BDO South Africa
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Manufacturers also cite “people pressures”
like employee wellbeing and satisfaction                                                                                                           Less impacted or better prepared?
(16%) as a top-three challenge, perhaps                                                                                                            The impact of the pandemic by sector, compared to initial expectations in April 2020
because ensuring staff’s health and
safety is a more urgent challenge in                                                                                                                 Much worse              Worse    As expected         Less significant         Much less significant
physical environments like factories,
than those which are purely office based.                                                                                                          Family business                                                            37%                            23%                                       37% 3%
Manufacturers were also less likely than
other sectors to report process, operational
and digital problems, largely because they                                                                                                         Retail and wholesale                                   22%                                                38%                      22%                  18%
are, by their culture, process driven and
focused on driving efficiency via technology.                                                                                                      Leisure and hospitality                                22%                                          33%                                  31%            13%

Another sector where the impact was
less significant than first predicted was                                                                                                          Real estate and construction                        20%                                        32%                                          38%         10%
professional services, with 37% of firms
claiming the impact had been less significant
                                                                                                                                                   Private equity                                      20%                                 27%                              27%                    20%      7%
than expected and 7% much less significant.
There is more than one factor driving this
result. Firstly, professional services are better                                                                                                  Manufacturing                                      19%                           22%                                      34%                    19%     6%
geared up than many sectors to interact with
clients virtually. Secondly, government-led
business support schemes meant more work                                                                                                           Healthcare                                  11%                                   31%                                          36%                 38% 4%
than usual in areas like compliance.
                                                                                                                                                   Renewables                              9%                                              38%                                     33%                     20%
“In Australia, federal government acted
quickly in the provision of significant
support. This led to a lot of advice,                                                                                                              Financial services                     8%                                                         46%                       22%                    20% 4%
establishment support and compliance
work, which replaced any lost business from                                                                                                        Technology, media and telecom          8%                                  29%                                                 41%                 18% 4%
traditional sources,” says Marita Corbett,
national leader, Risk Advisory at BDO
Australia. “In addition, a lot of the work we                                                                                                      Oil and gas                            7%                                                         47%                                    33%          10% 3%
do still needs to be done – it’s more a case
of timing than cancellation.”
                                                                                                                                                   Professional services             3%                                               40%               13%                                        37%      7%
And van Zandvoort agrees: “Professional
services had a dip in March and April 2020                                                                                                         Power and utilities               3%                                      32%                                   29%                              29%     6%
because many projects were paused, but
most of these projects restarted once the
first wave was over.”

CONTINGENCY VERSUS                                  having contingency plans in place, the          financial transactions, accumulating several   Their forward planning paid off; despite the          almost impossible to determine a risk score               processes. They operate on trust, and see risk
ADAPTABILITY                                        cruise ship sector and wider travel and         billions in the process, as well as reducing   pandemic, Radisson increased its market               for the group,” says Dahlgren. “It becomes                management as a lack of trust. Moreover,
                                                    hospitality was unprepared for an event of      cash flow and costs during the extended        share by 1.4% in 2020.                                even more difficult when companies have                   the board and executive committee are more
Among the sectors affected considerably             this magnitude. Yet, after receiving expert     pause in guest operations.”                                                                          complex supply chains too.”                               involved in operational decision-making and
worse than initially anticipated was the            advice, the company implemented a go-                                                          INTEGRATING RISK MANAGEMENT                                                                                     therefore are less likely to see a need for
leisure and hospitality industry, with 22%          forward plan and recommenced cruising in        Well-rehearsed plans proved essential                                                                The family business segment also struggled,               formal frameworks and systems.”
of respondents for whom this was the case.          Europe in late-2020 under strict health and     for Radisson Hotel Group, too. “Prior to       More surprisingly, given their prior growth,          with the impact worse or much worse than
Understandably, many firms hadn’t forecast          safety protocols, he says.                      2020, we already had a strong global           private equity firms were also adversely              expected for 60% of respondents. While                    The fix for this is to push forward with
such an unprecedented event – but those that                                                        crisis management process rolled out           affected. The reason for this, says Bruce             87% of family businesses believe their risk               formal risk management, but maintain the
were able to put crisis action plans in place       “Our top priorities have been compliance,       which allowed us to mobilize essential and     Dahlgren, chief executive of MetricStream,            officer should occupy a C-suite position,                 engagement of the board and executive
quickly had the best chance of bouncing back.       environmental protection and the health,        focused resources quickly,” according to a     is due to a lack of holistic oversight of all         only one in five allow them to have final                 committee. “Businesses of a certain size or
                                                    safety and welfare of our guests, crew,         spokesperson for the hotel group. “During      risks within their portfolio.                         sign-off on risk management practices.                    complexity should have an ERM framework
Arnold Donald, chief executive of Carnival          shoreside employees and the communities         2020 and 2021, we had to shift some                                                                                                                            in place, but do not necessarily need a risk
Corporation, which had to halt its guest            we visit,” says Donald. “In addition, we have   timelines and focus on cash as a priority,     “Every company within the portfolio                   In family businesses, says van Zandvoort:                 manager. Risk management should be an
operations from the start, including its            worked hard to rebuild our balance sheet        but we aim to consolidate the recovery         manages their risk separately with different          “Risk management is still very implicit and               integral part of decision-making and not a
global fleet of 105 ships, says that despite        and liquidity through a broad number of         during 2021.”                                  processes, and when it gets aggregated it’s           less often formalized in frameworks and                   separate ,and sometimes isolated, function.”
GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021 - The art of the unknown - BDO South Africa
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ERADICATING BLAME CULTURE
Leaders with a positive mindset, free from blame culture,
have steered their organization through the COVID
asteroid storm without being hit and broken

“Newark Airport cab stand is broken. There
are 75 cabs, and 75 people in line, and it         The impact of blame culture on risk and responsiveness                                                                                                                                                    Respondents who agreed that
takes an hour. Broken.”                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      blame culture is an inhibitor
                                                    Inhibits my company’s ability to       Drives my company’s
                                                    respond effectively to disruption      risk appetite                                                                                                                                                     to their responsiveness, by risk appetite
The management thinker Seth Godin is an
obsessive chronicler of everyday things he         80%
regards as sub-standard. On his blog This Is
Broken he publishes examples. For instance,
how at the Museum of Natural History,
in Washington DC, the garbage overflows                                23%
                                                   70%
the bins onto the floor every day. Or, the
coffee holders on a Ford car mean you can’t
change gear when used.                                                                  27%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                37%                          Risk averse
The Newark Airport example got him                 60%
particularly animated: “There is a man in a
uniform who will get you in trouble if you
just get in a cab. If he just said, ‘Everyone,
go!’ it would work.”
                                                   50%
After years of observing broken interactions,                          50%
Godin came up with a theory of why things
go wrong. A key observation was employees                                                               16%            12%                                                                                                                                      22%                      Risk minimising
saying “Not my job”. The man at the cab rank
                                                   40%
is only told to keep order, not get people in a                                         40%                                            13%
cab. He might get fired for breaking protocol,
so he doesn’t. The reason the garbage                                                                                                               15%
overflows at the museum is because the
                                                                                                                                                                 15%
janitor is paid to pick up the overflow, but not   30%                                                                 32%
empowered to buy a larger bin.
                                                                                                        29%
                                                                                                                                       27%
In each case the consumer experience could                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Risk taking
be improved by an employee taking action.                                                                                                                                     4%            8%                                                                  24%                      when necessary
                                                                                                                                                    22%                                                   10%
Fear of blame prevents them solving the            20%
problem. So the experience remains broken.                                                                                                                                    20%                                      7%
                                                                                                                                                                 18%                                                              2%
                                                                                                                                                                                            16%                                   16%
‘DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE SAME SHIP’                                                                                                                                                                                                              6%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          13%          13%
                                                   10%
The connection between blame culture
and performance is clear. Some 23% of                                                                                                                                                                                                           9%
survey respondents believe a blame culture
limits the performance of their company.                                                                                                                                                                                                                        15%                      Risk welcoming
During the pandemic, the pressure on               0%
employees came to the fore. When asked
                                                                       Private           Family       Renewables   Real estate and   Leisure and   Retail and   Power and    Healthcare   Technology,   Professional   Oil and   Financial   Manufacturing
which risks caused the greatest pressure,                              equity           business                    construction     hospitality   wholesale     utilities                   media        services      gas      services
45% of respondents cited low employee                                                                                                                                                     and telecom
GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021 - The art of the unknown - BDO South Africa
14      GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021

                                                         satisfaction and wellbeing, ahead of
                                                         employee productivity. Companies that

23%
                                                         cannot support employees will struggle
                                                         to grow, as staff underperform due to
                                                         adverse pressure.

                                                         European fintech Thought Machine, which
                                                         makes operating systems for banks,
of respondents agreed that blame culture                 expanded across Asia and Australia during
inhibits their company’s ability to respond              the pandemic. A company principle taught
effectively to disruption                                to all inductees is never to say “not my

81%
                                                         part of the ship”. It’s a nautical expression.
                                                         A co-founder began his career in the navy,
                                                         where sailors live or die on the same vessel.
                                                         Neglecting one part of the ship is to imperil
                                                         it all. The company commands: “We are all
                                                         working on different parts of the same ship.
of senior leaders believed that the top risk job         If your part is working, take a breather, then
should be a C-suite position                             go offer your help to other teams.”

29%
                                                         Another success story is Moneypenny,
                                                         an outsourced PA company with 21,000
                                                         clients. Chief executive Joanna Swash won
                                                         Management Today CEO of the Year in
                                                         2020. Swash says eradicating blame culture
of risk-welcoming respondents said that the final        is key to long-term performance. “You’ve
sign-off on risk management practices lies with          got to make people feel safe and secure,
the with the chief risk officer, compared to just        and that it’s okay to fail,” she explains. “Our
2% of risk-averse companies                              staff know they can use their judgement in

                                                                                                                                          a situation and, if there are problems, they       IT’S THE RESPONSIBILITY OF ALL                         You’ve got to make people
The top three pressures caused by the COVID-19 pandemic                                                                                   give us lessons to learn from in the future.”                                                       feel safe and secure, and that
                                                                                                                                                                                             Naturally, she has tips for companies
  Ranked 1st         Ranked 2nd       Ranked 3rd
                                                                                                                                          Vicky Gregorcyk, leader of Risk Advisory           wanting to build a similar culture. “It begins   it’s okay to fail. Our staff know
                                                                                                                                          Services for BDO USA, agrees. “A solution          in recruitment. We got 8,000 applications        they can use their judgement,
Low employee satisfaction and wellbeing                             11%                                     15%                     19%   to counter a blame culture is a ‘full-             for 300 positions last year. We recruit          and if there are problems, they
                                                                                                                                          accountability’ culture where everyone takes       on personality, not skills.” The company
Inadequate technology / lack of
digital transformation capabilities                              10%                                              18%         15%
                                                                                                                                          responsibility,” she says. “It also means using    structure is flat to reduce a top-down
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              give us lessons to learn from in
Internal cultural issues                                                                                                                  failures as an opportunity to learn and grow.”     mentality: “We are all equal pieces in the       the future
                                                   3%                             13%                                   14%
                                                                                                                                                                                             jigsaw. The CEO has no special parking
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              JOANNA SWASH
Geopolitical risks                                                             15%                7%              6%                      The guidance for staff is to do whatever           space. At the Christmas party the senior
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              CEO, MONEYPENNY
                                                                                                                                          the client needs. “There is nothing worse          staff serve behind the bar and clear up. We
Security-related risks                                                 12%               7%            5%                                 than hearing someone say they’ll ask their         could pay people to do it, but the point is to
                                                                                                                                          manager. It makes it sound like they’ve got        serve your people. That’s how you get rid of
Inefficient, inflexible processes that                                                                                                    no control. No autonomy. It’s wrong on all
were difficult to sustain during lockdown                           11%           5%               7%                                                                                        a blame culture.”
                                                                                                                                          levels,” says Gregorcyk.
Environmental, social and
governance (ESG) risks                                         9%              6%             6%                                                                                             The result for Moneypenny? In the weeks
                                                                                                                                          This right to fail includes the leadership. A      of the first lockdown, business volumes fell
Crowded competitor landscape
and successful rivals                               4%              7%                       9%                                           Moneypenny expansion to New Zealand                by half. A year on and headcount almost          keep their eyes open to how it is operating,
                                                                                                                                          ended in failure, with the venture axed at an      doubled as the company surged back.              not only in policy but also in practice.”
Reputational risk                                         7%                 7%          5%                                               early stage. A ramp-up of American operations
                                                                                                                                          was risky, but so far is proving a hit. “We have   Gregorcyk adds that eradicating blame            Blame culture is a handbrake on growth. It
Lack of funding or cash-flow issues                         8%            5%            5%                                                an attitude of ‘Let’s be brave and bold. What’s    culture is a company-wide effort. “Everyone      can corrode a reputation. At times it can
Lack of engagement with customers/                                                                                                        the worst thing that can happen?’ If we were       is responsible for a company’s culture,” she     imperil an entire company. Taking action is
not being able to meet customer needs              3%     4%                   8%
                                                                                                                                          only going to have an attitude of doing things     says. “Culture is ever-evolving and requires     risky. Employees often know what needs to
                                                                                                                                          that were dead certain we would not have           the board of directors, the C-suite, HR,         be done. If they aren’t taking action, it’s a
Supply chain disruption                                   7%     3%       3%
                                                                                                                                          grown like this,” says Swash.                      compliance, management and employees to          sign something is broken.
GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021 - The art of the unknown - BDO South Africa
16     GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021                                                                         GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021           17

ARE RISK FRAMEWORKS                                                                                 Risk frameworks aren’t
                                                                                                broken - but the focus
STILL FIT FOR PURPOSE?                                                                          needs to be on how they
                                                                                                are applied
The coronavirus pandemic has tested                                                             JAMES CRASK, MARSH

risk frameworks to the limit
                                                                                                “The risk frameworks aren’t broken,” says
                                                                                                Crask. “Rather the focus needs to be on how
                                                                                                they are applied.”
The effectiveness of organizations’ internal   address risks,” says Iain Wright, chair of the
risk frameworks has been called into           Institute of Risk Management. “In many           It wasn’t that risk frameworks were too rigid
question after they were tested to breaking    ways, last year’s experience only serves to      either, says Julia Graham, chief executive
point during the COVID-19 pandemic.            reinforce their importance.”                     of Airmic. Instead, they weren’t initially
                                                                                                designed to respond to emerging risks such
In the wake of the crisis, concerns have       The challenge with COVID-19 particularly,        as the pandemic, which require completely
been raised about whether they were,           says Lizzie Cryan, risk manager for              different tools and interventions.
in fact, too rigid in the face of such         Heathrow, is that it manifested itself in
unprecedented disruption.                      such a wide-ranging manner. And many             “An effective risk radar is vital, so risk
                                               frameworks had never before been exposed         managers have the tools that can keep an
But risk managers and experts disagree         to such a widespread risk, she says.             organization informed and up to date when
with this analysis.                                                                             something is happening at speed,” says
                                               “Particularly in our industry, because of        Graham. “However, no matter how good the
“There has been a huge amount of               the pandemic’s nature it is a far-reaching,      tools, people are always more important.
investment in internal risk frameworks         long-tail risk that has caused widespread        Resilient companies are likely to have
by organizations to identify, measure and      disruption throughout the supply chain,”         fast and agile risk management and crisis
                                               says Cryan. “As such, risk frameworks have       management in place, empowered with the
                                               never been tested before to this magnitude,      ability to respond with agility, flexibility and
                                               so it has been a massive learning curve for      adaptability to keep up with events.”
                                               all of us.”

53%
                                                                                                PROBABILITY VERSUS IMPACT
                                               PRIORITIZING FUTURE RISKS
                                                                                                Our survey found 53% of respondents had
                                               James Crask, resilience advisory lead for        a global health crisis on their risk register for
                                               the UK and Ireland at Marsh, says the key        2020, indeed pandemics have been on the
                                               takeaway is the need for greater focus on        World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report
of respondents had “global health crisis”      future risk. But with so many potential          top ten risks for the past decade. Of those
on their risk register for 2020                threats, it’s about prioritising the most        respondents, 58% agree it had helped them
                                               important, he says.                              manage the risk.

58%
Of those
                                               “Many organizations hadn’t necessarily           Yet, 90% of all respondents say last year’s
                                               prepared for such an event that impacted         event has prompted them to re-evaluate
                                               on all of their geographies at once on such a    their risk framework completely. That’s
                                               scale as the pandemic has done,” says Crask.     because many were taken by surprise by
                                               “This meant the controls they had in place       the pandemic’s extent. Now that it’s on
agreed that it had helped them                 didn’t work as well as perhaps they should       their radar, businesses must prepare for
to manage the risk in reality                  have done than if they had considered the        the likelihood of similar future events.

90%
                                               risk more broadly, which is a note of caution
                                               for the future.”                                 “One major reason why events have still
                                                                                                taken organizations by surprise is the
                                               He argues frameworks need to be rigid to         pandemic is a low-probability but high-
                                               an extent to enable a consistent approach        impact event,” says Graham. “A significant
                                               to managing risk. The risk register, he adds,    factor that many business have struggled
of all respondents agreed that 2020            also needs to be used in conjunction as a        with is the sheer speed at which events
triggered them to re-evaluate their            tool to inform better decisions, rather than     took place, the changing profile and level
risk framework entirely                        in isolation.                                    of impact it has had across the world.”
GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021 - The art of the unknown - BDO South Africa
18   GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021                                                                                                                GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021   19

RISK, TECHNOLOGY                  Research shows effective risk management
                                  relies on technology – and no event has
                                  highlighted the need for predictive analytics
                                                                                    themselves cushioned from the impact to a
                                                                                    greater degree. Some 73% of the firms that
                                                                                    said the pandemic’s impact was “much less
                                                                                                                                    Positive strategy changes made
                                                                                                                                    in direct response to the pandemic
AND TRANSFORMATION                more than the COVID-19 pandemic.                  significant than expected” had prioritized
                                                                                    digital transformation.
                                  “We’re in an era in which large-scale,
Technology, notably predictive    disruptive and divisive events are not only       Technology can enable near real-time            Investing in new
                                  more frequent, but are being communicated         automated processing of interactions to         technology/
analytics, has helped many        about faster than ever before. Businesses         assess for risk, says Jason Lane-Sellers,       accelerating digital        36%
                                                                                                                                    transformation
organizations unlock a positive   and their leaders are increasingly being          director of fraud and identity at data          efforts
response to the challenges        defined by their response during and after        and analytics provider LexisNexis Risk
                                  these critical moments,” says Helen Sutton,       Solutions. If applied appropriately, this
of a global pandemic              senior vice president, EMEA and APAC              means that operations can shift their
                                  sales, at Dataminr, which uses artificial         approach to enable proactive assessment         Pivoting cost and
                                  intelligence (AI) to provide real-time            and intervention.                               business models             32%
                                  information alerts to clients.
                                                                                    “Due to the volume and scale this
                                  As a result, businesses need to respond           automation provides, it can also mean
                                  to risks and emerging crises with greater         that the utilization of technologies such as
                                  agility and precision than ever before and        machine learning can move risk assessment       Reducing
                                                                                                                                    headcounts and
                                  are therefore seeking out technologies            to be predictive in nature, to provide better   streamlining                 29%
                                  that bridge those gaps in response and risk       risk prevention and improved capability in      resources
                                  management planning.                              changing environments,” he says.

                                  Our research confirms this view as 42% of         Conversely, we witnessed the collapse of
                                  respondents cited inadequate technology as        companies that may have failed to leverage      Proactively altering
                                                                                                                                    working culture
                                  a top-three risk that applied extra pressure      the data available to them. These included      to suit a new                24%
                                  on them during the pandemic. For risk-            major bricks-and-mortar retail chains. With     remote workforce
                                  averse respondents, this was the number-          access to consumer, category and market
                                  one pressure point.                               trend data sooner, there may have been
                                                                                    opportunities to redesign those businesses.
                                  ACCELERATION OF DIGITAL
                                                                                                                                    Shoring up
                                                                                    “For those that had already begun to            supply chains                20%
                                  At the same time, 57% of all respondents          invest in this area, they will have had
                                  saw the acceleration of digital transformation    more of a chance to regroup quickly and
                                  as one of the top three positive changes          make better decisions to capitalize on
                                  stimulated by the pandemic.                       micro-opportunities as they presented
                                                                                    themselves,” says Matt Andrew, UK
                                                                                                                                    Increasing data
                                  When asked what changes their organization        managing director and partner at data           analysis capabilities        16%
                                  made in response to the pandemic, the top         science firm Ekimetrics.
                                  response was investing in new technology
                                  or accelerating digital transformation efforts,   Andrew says one client that did invest in
                                  cited by 36% of respondents. For Enric            such forecasting was Accor, Europe’s biggest
                                  Domenech, Risk & Advisory Services lead at        hospitality brand. He said they were able
                                                                                                                                    Implementing more
                                  BDO Spain, this finding is not surprising. “The   “to take quick and nuanced decisions that       rigorous ESG policies        14%
                                  pandemic underlined how important it is to        saw them continue to market profitably
                                  react and adapt at speed,” he says. “Flexible     throughout 2020, despite being in one
                                  process must be combined with adequate            of the worst hit sectors with ongoing
                                  technology for rapid reaction.”                   uncertainty across a number of markets”.

                                                                                                                                    Increasing headcount
                                  Interestingly, those who invested in              MISSING AN OPPORTUNITY                          and hiring new talent        12%
                                  technology during the pandemic found
                                                                                    Despite this precarious position, only
                                                                                    11% of respondents said they currently
                                      Flexible process must                         use technology in a predictive way to
                                                                                    forecast future potential risk. This implies
                                  be combined with adequate                         organizations are still improvizing when it
                                                                                                                                    Offering completely
                                                                                                                                    different products           3%
                                  technology for rapid reaction                     comes to their risk management function.        or services
20      GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021                                                                                                                                                                        GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021             21

These companies are missing an                    Uma Rajah, co-founder and chief executive
opportunity to deploy predictive analytics        of UK prime property finance lending
to understand the impact of future events,        and investing platform CapitalRise, says
                                                                                                                                                          CROs AND TECHNOLOGY
says Richard Speigal, Business Intelligence       advances in risk management technology
Centre of Excellence lead at UK building
society Nationwide. “Obtaining and
                                                  have enabled fintechs to revolutionize
                                                  the old-fashioned, manual processes
                                                                                                                                                          Technology advocates are emerging
                                                                                                                                                          from unexpected C-suite roles.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              34%
analysing accurate data to model scenarios        used historically by lenders. As a result,                                                                                                                                   of CROs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               categorise their
and plan future business risk is key to           the alternative lending market has grown                                                                Behind only chief financial officers
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               use of technology
making informed business action that              exponentially over the past decade and                                                                  (CFOs) in terms of driving general
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               as “predictive”
improves outcomes,” he says.                      established itself as an attractive alternative                                                         digital transformation, chief risk

Speigal says Nationwide deployed Qlik
                                                  to traditional bank lending.                                                                            officers (CROs) are leading on deeper
                                                                                                                                                          technological advancements like data
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              compared to just
analytics dashboards to enable teams to           “The use of sophisticated risk management                                                               analysis. More than three times the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5% of CEOs
compare and analyse potential business            technology can lead to better quality risk                                                              number of CROs consider their use of
outcomes before making decisions. For             decisions which can drive lower default rates                                                           technology as “predictive” compared
example, during the pandemic, the insights        and result in cheaper sources of capital for                                                            to the average across all respondents
enabled the business to predict a continued       borrowers,” she says.                                                                                   (34% to 11%). Only 5% of chief                  these unlikely partners are at the
increase in call centre demand.                                                                                                                           executive officers say the same.                forefront of driving transformation.
                                                  KNOW YOUR ORGANIZATION
“We identified branch staff who were                                                                                                                      When asked what changes their                   “This allows the organization to
experiencing decreased in-person demand           “Everything in business is risk,” says                                                                  company made as part of its response            not only clearly articulate and
and were able to redirect calls to them,          Mike Elliott, chief executive at internet                                                               to the pandemic, 40% of CROs and                demonstrate differential and return
which helped us maintain team levels              of things management platform Over-C,                                                                   47% of CFOs said they accelerated               on investment to customers, but
in-branch and continue to offer high levels       which advises football and rugby clubs,                                                                 their digital transformation efforts.           also understand the long-term
of customer service despite the increase in       shopping centres and gyms on avoiding                                                                   This is compared to just 29% of chief           impact of these engagements on
demand,” he adds.                                 risk by transforming their premises into                                                                technology officers and 36% of chief            the profit and loss, and company
                                                  “smart” venues.                                                                                         information officers.                           valuation,” says Chaudry.
Also in the financial services sector, there is
demand for better risk management to deliver      “Whether you’re reopening your business                                                                 “The CFO and CRO roles have                     Indeed, his counterpart in risk,
responsible and robust financial solutions.       after a pandemic, expanding into new                                                                    migrated over the last decade,                  CRO Martin Hawkes, says that
                                                                                                                                                          from being on opposite sides of the             throughout the pandemic, Foodhub
                                                                                                                                                          argument to being boardroom allies,”            has utilized technology and data to
                                                                                                          markets or launching new products and           says Mohamed Chaudry, CFO of                    assist the restaurant industry.
The top three most significant pressures caused by the pandemic                                           services, there is always a risk profile.       online food delivery service Foodhub.
                                                                                                          The best way to deal with risk is to                                                            “This has enabled us to not only
                                                                                                          better understand your organization             “This alignment has been driven by              survive, but often thrive through
Low employee satisfaction and wellbeing                                                             45%
                                                                                                          and its strengths and weaknesses, which         an understanding that technology                providing data and tools that increase
Inadequate technology / lack of                                                                           requires good data analysis. Collecting         is at the forefront of being able to            the restaurant’s engagement with
digital transformation capabilities                                                                 43%
                                                                                                          and understanding data will help form risk      provide both competitive advantage              consumers, to help drive food orders
Internal cultural issues                                                                                  insights and inform decision-making and         and critical data insights.”                    and the productivity of restaurants
                                                                                                    30%
                                                                                                          ability to deal with certain risks,” he says.                                                   in terms of streamlining the ordering
Geopolitical risks                                                                                  28%                                                   As the two roles have become                    and food delivery process as well as
                                                                                                          The results indicate risk management is not     increasingly focused on technology,             food production,” says Hawkes.
Security-related risks                                                                              24%   only a driving force behind technological
                                                                                                          innovation and improvement, but also that
Inefficient, inflexible processes that                                                                    technology is essential in the evolution
were difficult to sustain during lockdown                                                           23%
                                                                                                          of risk management: from reactive to
                                                                                                                                                          What changes did your company make
ESG-related risks                                                                                   21%   proactive to predictive.                        as part of its response to the pandemic?
                                                                                                                                                            Accelerating digital transformation efforts       Increasing data analysis capabilities
Crowded competitor landscape
and successful rivals                                                                               20%   The good news is that computing power

                                                                                                                                                          40%
                                                                                                                                                                26%

                                                                                                                                                                       47%
                                                                                                                                                                             23%

                                                                                                                                                                                    29%
                                                                                                                                                                                          17%

                                                                                                                                                                                                 36%
                                                                                                                                                                                                       13%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                36%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      12%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            29%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  11%

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          34%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                10%
                                                                                                          and technologies like cloud computing and
Reputational risk                                                                                   19%   AI mean data can be far more accessible
                                                                                                          than ever before. But organizations can’t
Lack of funding or cash-flow issues                                                                 18%   rely on technology alone. They must
Lack of engagement with customers/                                                                        be sure they are set up culturally and
not being able to meet customer needs                                                               15%   organizationally to use the insights they
                                                                                                          uncover and be prepared to act. Before it’s     Chief risk     Chief        Chief       Chief          Chief      Managing      Other
Supply chain disruption                                                                             13%                                                    officer     financial   technology information      executive    director      C-suite
                                                                                                          too late.                                                      officer     officer     officer        officer
22    GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021                                                                                                                                                                              GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021          23

THE PANDEMIC’S                                                                                     Silver linings: the most important positive changes stimulated by the pandemic
                                                                                                                                                                                                    moral and business reasons. But equally,
                                                                                                                                                                                                    there is nowhere for them to hide now
                                                                                                                                                                                                    on these issues. Consumers, employees,

SILVER LININGS
                                                                                                     Ranked 1st       Ranked 2nd    Ranked 3rd    Combined top three
                                                                                                                                                                                                    investors and governments are all demanding
                                                                                                                                                                                                    more action on ESG issues and there is
                                                                                                                                                                                                    greater transparency than ever before
Despite the widespread shock and impact of                                                         Our digital transformation
                                                                                                                                                                                                    thanks to the power of social media and the
                                                                                                   programs have accelerated                                                                        increased availability of big data tools.
the coronavirus outbreak, some organizations                                                       more than they would                    19%                         22%          16%       57%
                                                                                                   have done
have experienced unexpected benefits                                                                                                                                                                Companies should expect a paradigm shift
                                                                                                                                                                                                    in the future, says BDO’s Emanuel van
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Zandvoort. “Employees, especially younger
Many people thought that the COVID-19            Van Heel, head of client sustainability and       We have refocused on                                                                             generations, will demand clear values,
                                                                                                   the social purpose of
pandemic would signal a reverse of recent        environment at law firm Freshfields Bruckhaus     our business, and become               20%                          18%          9%        47%   policies and performance measures on ESG
progress on sustainability, as happened          Deringer, says: “Companies that have strong       more socially responsible                                                                        themes to stay engaged with the business.
during the financial crisis a decade ago.        sustainability credentials benefit from greater                                                                                                    ESG may become potentially more important
However, the reverse appears to be true.         loyalty from key stakeholders including                                                                                                            than earnings and income,” he says.
                                                 employees, customers and suppliers.”              We have improved our
The all-encompassing nature of the outbreak                                                        environmental credits,
                                                                                                                                           24%                         7%           9%        40%   BOUNCING BACK WITH ESG
                                                                                                   for example by reducing
highlighted how interconnected the global        The pandemic has acted to accelerate              our carbon footprint
economy is and the need to take a worldwide      companies’ commitment to environmental                                                                                                             Although it is difficult to predict how
approach when it comes to considering risks.     issues, the Dutch bank ING found. In                                                                                                               the pandemic will play out, taking a
It has made companies realize that they must     part this is because many governments                                                                                                              forward-looking, risk-focused approach
adopt a new approach to doing business, one      have linked their post-pandemic stimulus          Internal culture has improved,
                                                                                                                                                 3%                                                 will enable companies to become more
that considers all their stakeholders.           programs with the imperative to tackle            e.g. productivity levels                                            16%          15%       35%   resilient during and after COVID-19, say
                                                                                                   have risen
                                                 climate change. At the same time,                                                                                                                  Bloomberg legal analysts Dylan Bruce and
Our research showed that companies feel          renewable energy has reached cost parity                                                                                                           Sansanee Dhanasarnsombat.
that despite the upheavals of COVID-19,          with rival forms of power generation and it
companies have found a silver lining in          is becoming obvious that there are growing                                                                                                         “Most companies will experience some
the ability to refocus on environmental,         risks to remaining wedded to fossil fuels.        Employee wellbeing and                                                                           level of challenge and difficulty in response
                                                                                                   satisfaction has improved               6%                          12%          11%       29%
social and governance (ESG) factors. In our                                                                                                                                                         to the COVID-19 pandemic, but those
survey, 24% of respondents cited “improved       As an added bonus, investing in renewables                                                                                                         companies with established ESG strategies
environmental credits” as their top benefit of   will create many jobs as countries and                                                                                                             and infrastructures may be the first to
COVID-19, and 20% said they had “refocused       regions focus on “building back better”. All                                                                                                       bounce back. Companies that internalize
on social purpose”, which means the top two      of this makes it easier and more desirable        Operational costs have                                                                           the experiences of the pandemic, and
spots were occupied by ESG factors.              for companies to tackle environmental and
                                                                                                   reduced as our processes                11%                         7%           7%        25%   apply lessons learnt to the next crisis, will
                                                                                                   have had to be streamlined
                                                 climate issues.                                                                                                                                    continue building resiliency to external
BENEFIT OF COMMITTING TO ESG                                                                                                                                                                        environmental and economic factors,”
                                                 SHIFTING TOWARDS SOCIAL                                                                                                                            they add.
It is increasingly clear that ESG issues are                                                                                                     3%
                                                                                                   Our core competitors
not just an optional extra for corporates,       Meanwhile, the other key impact of the            struggled to adapt and                                              6%           16%       25%   Peter Bakker, WBCSD chief executive,
they are material factors for all businesses     pandemic has been to highlight a whole            are now less of a threat                                                                         points out that unless we use the return
when it comes to managing risks and              host of social issues and their importance to                                                                                                      to “normal” to create a truly better focus,
identifying new opportunities.                   businesses. These include not just the health                                                                                                      we will miss a massive opportunity to do
                                                 and safety of workers but employee welfare                                                                                 5%                      better. “We need to strengthen the links
“The pandemic has served as the first real       more generally. Issues of gender and racial       Our revenue has increased                                                                        between sustainability, biodiversity loss,
                                                                                                   more than expected as                   8%                                       7%        20%
proof-point for sustainability, underlining      diversity, and income inequality, also came       a result of the pandemic                                                                         climate change, inequality, health, and big
the fact that ESG investing doesn’t come at      to the fore.                                                                                                                                       shocks to the system that are happening
a cost, but can future-proof investments, all                                                                                                                                                       today,” he says. “Never waste a good crisis:
while helping to shape a better future,” says    And these concerns were not just confined                                                                                                          we have both the collective responsibility
Fiona Reynolds, chief executive of Principles    to a company’s own employees as there are                                                       2%                         5%                      and the opportunity to act to be part of the
                                                                                                   Our supply chains have
for Responsible Investing.                       calls for greater transparency in how workers     become more stable,                                                              7%        14%   solution, to take the lessons we can draw
                                                                                                   robust or resilient
                                                 in a company’s supply chain are treated. ING                                                                                                       from this crisis into the core of the future
Yi Sun, an analyst at the World Business         reports that employee health and welfare is                                                                                                        of business.”
Council for Sustainable Development              now the top priority for companies.
(WBCSD), says companies that deal well with                                                                                                                                                         It is this opportunity, coupled with the risks
                                                                                                   Our customers’ behaviour                      2%                      2%              3%
ESG issues are less vulnerable to shocks and     In part this is because they want to do the       has permanently shifted                                                                    7%    of failing to act, that is driving businesses to
more resilient to systemic risks. Oliver Dudok   right thing and support their staff, for both     in our favour                                                                                    embrace the ESG agenda.
24    GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021                                                                                                                                                                                                                            GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021     25

EMBRACING                                                                                                                                             period must now be recalculated to tackle a
                                                                                                                                                      completely different set of concerns.               Which risks is your company least prepared for?

FUTURE RISK
                                                                                                                                                                                                          How the top three have changed year on year
                                                                                                                                                      “New conditions require new approaches,”
                                                                                                                                                      warned former US Treasury Secretary                   2019         2020      2021
                                                                                                                                                      Lawrence Summers in a Washington Post
Organizations that plan for and                                                                                                                       op-ed. “Now, the primary risk to the US                                                                                            28%
                                                                                                                                                      economy is overheating — and inflation.”                                                                                           28%
manage risk will be the winners                                                                                                                                                                           Business interruption
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         13%
in a post-COVID economy, no                                                                                                                           Conversely, risks that have lost some of
matter what the future holds                                                                                                                          their urgency in recent years can easily make                                                                                      30%
                                                                                                                                                      a dramatic and sudden comeback. The Ever            Capital/ funding                                                               22%
                                                                                                                                                      Given accident at the Suez Canal and the                                                                                           15%
                                                                                                                                                      continuing semiconductor shortage of 2021
                                                                                                                                                      will likely catapult supply chain and business                                                                                     33%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Computer crime/
                                                                                                                                                      interruption issues up a few notches in             hacking/viruses                                                                34%
                                                                                                                                                      internal risk mapping. A growing number                                                                                            20%
                                                                                                                                                      of successful ransomware attacks against
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         34%
                                                                                                                                                      governments and multinational groups may            Damage to reputation/
                                                                                                                                                                                                          brand value
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         27%
                                                                                                                                                      also add some extra urgency to tackling                                                                                            35%
Nobody can predict exactly what business        potential longer-term implications, that            is optimistic about future opportunities,         cyber risks.
environment will be left behind after the       C-suites across all industries are wary of any      particularly around government support.                                                                                                                                              30%
pandemic – but it is certain that risks faced   more big risks hovering on the horizon.                                                               Ricky Cheng, head of Risk Advisory at               Economic slowdown/
                                                                                                                                                                                                          slow recovery                                                                  37%
by companies will continue to evolve.                                                               “We remain positive and will need to              BDO Hong Kong, explains that risk and                                                                                              41%
                                                TURNING RISK INTO OPPORTUNITY                       continue making quick decisions,” says a          uncertainty go hand in hand and a good
COVID-19 represented an extreme case of                                                             spokesperson for Radisson Hotel Group.            risk management strategy accepts this.                                                                                             29%
economic disruption, and our survey shows       Leaders must keep in mind the impressive            “We cannot underestimate the power of the         “The post-COVID economy is still full of            Environmental                                                                  27%
that it has brought major risks to the top of   displays of agility and flexibility that            public and private sector coming together         economic uncertainties,” says Cheng. “Some                                                                                         19%
C-suite agendas.                                businesses have shown during the pandemic.          to help to rebuild the hospitality industry.      organizations may be thinking of expanding
                                                Such change inevitably creates macro                We are already seeing positive signs with the     their business during this initial stage of                                                                                        23%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Failure to innovate/
Four in ten respondents listed the risk of      opportunities, alongside macro risks.                                                                                                                                                                                                    22%
                                                                                                    Digital Green Certificate proposed by the         recovery – but management should be                 meet customer needs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         30%
a slow economic recovery among their                                                                European Commission which is a major step         mindful of over-optimistic planning.
main worries. Increased competition and         In Europe, for example, governments are             towards recovery”.                                                                                                                                                                   23%
macroeconomic developments were cited           using recovery money to address old issues                                                            “There is still a long way to go before the         Geopolitical                                                                   26%
by around one third. This represents a          that have hampered productivity and job             Similar strategies to turn risk into              economy returns to its pre-COVID level.                                                                                            25%
significant increase on 2020, when the          creation in the region for decades.                 opportunity are happening worldwide. In           Businesses can manage this by always
same cross-section of respondents were                                                              Asia, whole sectors like retail, education        having a reservation strategy – then they                                                                                          18%
interviewed just as the pandemic was            Spain, which will receive $140 billion until        and healthcare are going through a process        can take an optimistic stance when making           Increasing competition                                                         19%
spreading across the world.                     2026, has listed among its priorities the           of automation that has been accelerated           business decisions”.                                                                                                               35%
                                                production of connected and electric                by COVID-19. In South America, traditional
On the other side of the coin, the risks that   cars, the digitalization of the tourism             retailers have invested heavily to pump           Agile, robust risk management is essential                                                                                         12%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Macroeconomic
worried business leaders two years ago look     industry and the boosting of research on            up their online sales channels and counter        for companies doing business today. Risks           developments                                                                   14%
less frightening today. Access to funding,      artificial intelligence. Italy intends to use its   an army of start-up challengers. Brazilian        are not static, and most fade in and out of                                                                                        30%
computer hacking and business interruption      $205-billion investment to implement badly          company Via Varejo’s pioneering sales             focus year on year – yet rarely disappear
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         14%
all dropped considerably in our ranking.        needed reforms in areas like the tax system,        service means consumers can now                   altogether. Identifying the most urgent risks,
                                                                                                                                                                                                          People                                                                         8%
                                                judiciary and anti-trust laws.                      purchase a fridge via WhatsApp, while             without losing sight of those that could create
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         13%
It is not surprising, as governments and                                                            Chile’s Cenconsud saw online sales increase       new challenges in the future, is a laborious
businesses turn their attention from the        “We need to transform our economies as              fourfold after adapting its digital business to   task, but its benefits match the necessary                                                                                         12%
immediate impact of COVID-19 and to the         structural changes speed up around us,”             pandemic-driven trends.                           investments in talent and technology.               Regulatory risk                                                                13%
                                                said Christine Lagarde, head of the European                                                                                                                                                                                             12%
                                                Central Bank, during a conference in May            TWO SIDES OF THE SAME COIN                        The pandemic has taught us companies that
                                                2021. “We must redirect activity towards                                                              make a sustained effort in identifying and                                                                                         7%
    Management should                           the green and digital sectors as quickly            Risk and opportunity can switch places, fast.     managing risks are better prepared to face such     Supply chain                                                                   9%
be mindful of over-                             as possible, which will help raise Europe’s         In the United States, the slow economic           unusual situations than their risk-averse, or                                                                                      5%
optimistic planning                             growth potential.”                                  recovery that is worrying business leaders is     even risk-ignoring, counterparts. Companies
                                                                                                    quickly giving way to economic growth. As         that can truly say they embrace risk will be well                                                                                  7%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Technological changes/
RICKY CHENG,                                    Even the hospitality sector, which struggled        a result, contingency plans implemented to        prepared for the challenges of the future, no       development                                                                    14%
BDO HONG KONG                                   more than many during the pandemic,                 help companies tread water during a sluggish      matter how catastrophic they may be.                                                                                               7%
26      GLOBAL RISK LANDSCAPE 2021

DEMOGRAPHICS
AND METHODOLOGY
Company location                                                                                 Annual turnover

                                                                                                   20%           20%           20%         20%        20%

                                                                                                   $100m -       $501m -        $1bn -     $5bn -
                                                                                                   $500m         $1bn           $5bn       $10bn       $10bn +

                                                                                                 Number of employees

                                                                                                   21%           20%            20%        20%         19%
     20%               10%          20%        20%             10%        10%          10%

      US              Central        UK       Mainland         Africa     Middle       APAC
                      or Latin                 Europe                      East                    10,000+        5,001-        2,501-     1,001-      500-
                      America                                                                                     10,000        5,000      2,500       1,000

Organization’s primary industry                                                                  Job title or nearest equivalent

Financial services                                                                         10%     Chief             Chief              Chief           Chief
                                                                                                 executive         financial        information      technology
Technology, media and telecom                                                              10%    officer            officer           officer         officer
Renewables                                                                                 9%     20%                  15%               15%           15%
Healthcare                                                                                 9%
Leisure and hospitality                                                                    9%
Real estate and construction                                                               8%
Retail and wholesale                                                                       8%
Power and utilities                                                                        7%
Family business                                                                            6%
Manufacturing                                                                              6%
Oil and gas                                                                                6%
Private equity                                                                             6%
Professional services                                                                      6%

Risk appetite

                                                                                                                               Chief
     10%                           44%                       34%                     12%                     Other              risk       Managing
                                                                                                             c-suite           officer     director
                                                                                                             10%               10%             15%
      Risk                          Risk                   Risk taking                Risk
     averse                      minimising              when necessary            welcoming                      Numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
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independent member firms (‘the BDO network’) is coordinated
by Brussels Worldwide Services BVBA, a limited liability company
incorporated in Belgium.

Each of BDO International Limited (the governing entity of the BDO
network), Brussels Worldwide Services BVBA and the member firms is
a separate legal entity and has no liability for another such entity’s acts
or omissions. Nothing in the arrangements or rules of the BDO network
shall constitute or imply an agency relationship or a partnership
between BDO International Limited, Brussels Worldwide Services BVBA
and/or the member firms of the BDO network.

BDO is the brand name for the BDO network and for each of
the BDO member firms.
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