From protest to reform - A study of social movements' success - A study of social movements' success
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From protest to reform A study of social movements’ success
Contents
Introduction 4
About this report 7
At a glance: selected features
of social movements 8
Setting the context: what triggers 9
protest movements?
Armenia’s Velvet Revolution (2018) 9
Pro-impeachment protests in Brazil (2015-2016) 10
The October Revolution in Lebanon (2019) 11
End SARS protests in Nigeria (2020) 12
here’s no success like failure:
T 13
debunking spontaneity
The risks and pitfalls of leaderlessness 17
and over-reliance on strong leadership
Measuring success and failure 24
Conclusions 30
2
Foreword
From the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia to military coup in Myanmar, undermining civil
the Taksim protests in Turkey and the Maidan disobedience and nonviolent resistance.
protests in Ukraine, social upheavals can gain
strength seemingly suddenly, often around Sometimes, the threat to a protest movement’s
a single event, and then go on to challenge success comes from within. When movement
deeply entrenched power structures. leadership is weak, or overly rigid and
centralised, movements have a hard time
What makes these protests so powerful is realising their goals. Equally, when movement
activists’ and movement members’ willingness structures are not built for the long haul, it
to risk life and liberty in their urgent desire to becomes hard to build and sustain momentum
work against— against an oppressive regime, for lasting political change.
discriminatory legislation, or a systemic lack of
justice. But after these early chaotic moments, Importantly, even when protests “succeed”,
disruptive movements too often fade away long-term reforms are not a given. Activists can
without creating the long-term changes that lack a long-term vision for change which goes
they sought. beyond immediate and short-term demands,
leaving them ill-prepared for the “day after” the
Often, there is significant resistance against the big disruption. It is because of this that many
aims of social movements. Governments push seemingly successful protest movements do
back, and push back hard, to quash civic not lead to sustainable change.
dissent, and oppress protests against systemic
challenges and injustices. They do so through Luminate is keen to understand how those
policy, legislation, and through the use of their internal challenges hinder social movements
security apparatuses. from achieving continuous, lasting, positive
“Most movements fail in the victory phase.”
– Srdja Popovic, founding member of Otpor!, Serbian resistance movement
In 2020, for example, the U.S. government used change. This is why we commissioned
heavily militarised security forces to violently this report, as an opportunity to learn from
respond to overwhelmingly peaceful protests and make a contribution to a vibrant and
challenging systemic injustice and violence courageous field.
against Black Americans, and especially Black
men in the U.S. We asked a number of questions: How can
movement leaders take forward the momentum
But the success of social movements is not that they created to build sustainable political
only threatened by a state’s own government. change? How can they build the bridge from
Other adversaries, governmental or non- political disruption to political reform? And
governmental, can play a significant role in ultimately, how can they succeed?
distorting, shaping, and even undermining the
aims and purposes of social movements. This report, authored by FairSquare, provides
some first answers to those questions. We
A poignant example is the Chinese government are excited to continue exploring protest
which, in early 2021, blocked a UN Security movements, and how they can best help
Council statement condemning the achieve more just and fair societies.
Amira El-Sayed
Principal, Luminate
July 2021
3
Introduction
Over the past decade, mass protests have In parallel, progressive social movements,
erupted in a notable range of countries. These largely sparked by austerity measures and
have often involved tens of thousands or even joblessness caused by the 2007-2008 global
hundreds of thousands of people. In December financial crisis but also inspired by the “Arab
2010, the desperate act of defiance of a young Spring”, as it became known, started forming
fruit vendor in Tunisia who set himself on fire across the world. “Occupy” activists rushed
to protest incessant police harassment, daily to fill squares in major cities first in the United
humiliation and economic hardship unleashed States, and then in European and South
long-simmering anger and discontent felt by American countries, spreading to Asia and
Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution”, 2019 (Credit: Bert Pot)
Over the past decade, mass protests have often
involved tens of thousands or even hundreds of
thousands of people.
millions of Tunisians who took to the streets the Pacific region. Of these, the Spanish 15-M
to demand jobs, better living conditions, and and the Greek Aganaktismeni (Indignant)
ultimately, political change. In the weeks movements stood out as some of the most
and months that followed, huge waves of powerful social movements that demanded
mobilizations spread across the Middle East not only greater social and economic justice
and North Africa to oppose oppressive regimes, but also “real” democracy.1 The decade ended
leading to the ousting of its most ruthless rulers. with millions of people joining youth-led global
For the first time, millions of people across the climate change marches and mass protests
region were able to imagine a different reality against the ruling elites in virtually all parts of
only to have their hopes crushed as uprisings the world – Chile, Lebanon, Iraq, Ecuador, Iran,
were repressed through unlawful force, armed Hong Kong, Indonesia, Sudan, Georgia and
conflict or the return of authoritarian rule. Algeria, amongst other countries – demanding
basic services, social justice, civil and political
4
rights, an end to corruption and in some cases, included tear gas, live or rubber bullets and raids
a complete change of the political system. on encampments resulting in unlawful killings
and injuries. Tens of thousands of protesters
Largely enabled by the use of digital and activists over the world have been arrested
technologies that allow them to grow rapidly, over the past decade – many of them arbitrarily
and in many cases strongly committed – and were often subjected to prosecution on
to participation, horizontal structures of trumped-up charges as well as other forms of
organizing, and the rejection of formal judicial harassment that continued long after the
hierarchies and leaders, these spectacular protests ended, significantly weakening these
movements have been successful in attracting movements’ capacity to survive, grow and adopt
huge levels of global media attention, with new tactics.
the media and analysts characterizing them
as “spontaneous”, “new” or “unprecedented.”2 There is no doubt that the authorities’ response
Many of these movements have displayed and political context inform protesters’ choices
strong disruptive capacities, bringing entire once the initial mobilization comes to an end
neighbourhoods or cities to a halt, and but is it enough to understand why some
interrupting all forms of economic and social movements achieve their immediate objectives
life for prolonged periods. At times, they have while others don’t? Why are certain movements
achieved major breakthroughs leading to the more resilient and able not only to survive but
Many of these movements have displayed
strong disruptive capacities. However, only a few
were able to convert their gains into sustained
mobilization and political change.
ousting of corrupt leaders and governments, or also to translate their initial mobilization into
constitutional and legislative reforms. However, different forms of organizing? What types
only a few were able to convert their gains into of tactics are most successful and when do
sustained mobilization and political change they start posing a threat to those in power?
with many protest movements seemingly dying Can lasting change be achieved through
down almost as immediately as they appeared. leaderless, autonomous movements, or do
While some have morphed into encampments, movements need strong central bodies and
occupying symbolic public or private spaces leaders to be successful? What are the different
for weeks or months, they too have often fizzled strategies that activists adopt after protests
out when faced with state repression or a are quashed or simply die down? What drives
response that required them to take decisions their choices? How important are past historic
or adopt new tactics.3 events to protest movements, and how do they
inform mobilization tactics and post-protest
Indeed, the authorities’ response to these strategies? And crucially, how can we measure
movements has been uneven, and has often a social movement’s success or failure?
shaped their trajectories and ability to survive. In
some contexts, those in power appeared to be Based on four case studies of recent protests
threatened enough by the strength of popular that occurred in different regions across the
demands to adopt reforms, with protesters world, this report will seek to examine some of
engaging in the process or turning their efforts to the questions outlined above, while recognizing
the monitoring of their implementation. In others, that there is no one-size-fits-all answer, and
authorities showed an apparent willingness to that protesters’ pathways differ from one
negotiate only to appease popular anger, casting context to another. The cases include Armenia’s
doubt on prospects for any meaningful political 2018 “Velvet Revolution”, Brazil’s 2015-2016
or structural change. In most cases however, pro-impeachment demonstrations, the 2019
they responded with intense repression that “October Revolution” in Lebanon and Nigeria’s
5
#EndSARS protests of 2020. In all these set the narrative and frame their messages
contexts, protests attracted huge numbers to different audiences. Beyond the use of
of people, involved considerable mobilization social media, these four movements adopted
efforts, sought significant political, structural mobilization tactics that differed widely and
and economic changes and showed a potential ranged from horizontal, leaderless forms of
for great disruptive capacity, which they were organizing to a more hierarchical mobilization
able to sustain for differing periods of time, and communication style and a political
ranging from weeks to months. transition led by a clearly identifiable leader that
opted for highly decentralized yet disciplined
In all four cases, movements were also able collective actions. They were also associated
to capture the world’s attention as protests with different political ideologies with some
were unfolding, with some receiving support identifying with left-leaning, egalitarian politics
from their own diaspora communities and and others adhering to right-wing, conservative
national or international celebrities, highlighting principles. Finally, the level of state violence and
their far-reaching impact. Indeed, social repression varied hugely across these contexts,
media played an important role not only and although all movements were able to
in generating this support – with activists’ achieve a political breakthrough at some point,
constantly disseminating videos and photos only in the case of Armenia and Brazil were they
from the ground – but also in mobilizing able to achieve their stated goals. The question
protesters and coordinating collective actions. of long-term political change and success,
In addition, it allowed activists to successfully though, remains open for all.
Lebanese anti-government protesters celebrate the resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri in Beirut on October 29, 2019 on the 13th day of anti-government protests. (Credit:
Patrick Baz/AFP via Getty Images)
6About this report interviews with activists and protest leaders,
civil society workers, journalists and academics
Luminate commissioned FairSquare Research from each of the countries analysed as well
to identify and scope 3-4 case studies of social as interviews with social movement scholars
movements and political disruptions and concerning general mobilization and post-
extracting trends and factors that contributed protest dynamics and tactics. Some of these
to successes and challenges; provide analysis analytical frameworks have been incorporated
of how social and political movements can into this report. In total, 24 interviews were
succeed at creating profound and necessary conducted remotely between December 2020
disruption but often fall short of creating lasting, and February 2021.
sustainable reform; offer some thoughts on
approaches that work, and others that don’t; Social movements, including protest events,
and build an argument building on the above, have been the subject of in-depth academic
introducing the case for more sustained work and investigative research, and this report’s
to find and employ the ingredients needed to format and space constraints mean that it
sustain political reform. Magdalena Mughrabi led cannot hope to offer a comprehensive analysis
research for FairSquare. of these movements over the past decade,
or indeed, those highlighted in the four case
studies. It does, however, identify the main
Methodology dynamics and trends underpinning these
movements. Similarly, although the authors
The analysis and findings included in this
have incorporated the voices of activists,
report are primarily based on a review of
including protest leaders, and experts who have
publicly available information on each of the
researched the examples examined here, it was
case studies ranging from NGO and think tank
impossible to present all voices and views from
reports to academic publications, webinars,
across the different movements. It is therefore
press articles, media interviews and social
very likely that some contextual or internal
media content. The report also draws on
dynamics will have been omitted, simplified or
explained without the nuance they deserve.
About FairSquare About the author
Based in London, FairSquare produces Magdalena Mughrabi is a FairSquare
specialist research and advice to help associate specialising in human rights
prevent human rights abuse, and promote and international humanitarian law
accountability and the rule of law. FairSquare investigations. Magdalena was Deputy
Projects, a non-profit organisation, tailors Director for the Middle East and North
rigorous research with communication Africa at Amnesty International and
and advocacy work to promote systemic previously worked as a Protection
change. FairSquare Research helps clients Delegate for the International Committee
understand and evaluate human rights of the Red Cross.
issues, and plan their next steps.
7At a glance: selected features of social movements
Armenia Brazil Lebanon Nigeria
Overview Shorthand term "Velvet Revolution" n/a "October Revolution" #EndSARS
Time period April 2018 2015 - 2016 2019 - 2020 2020
Duration 11 days Series of events over Six months Just under a month
18 months
Context to protests Trigger Attempt by President to Deepening economic New round of taxes Video posted on Twitter
extend grip on power with crisis and corruption (including on WhatsApp alleging the killing of a
constitutional reform investigation into state- calls) announced as young man by SARS
backed company part of broader officers in Delta state
austerity measures
Broader grievances or Endemic corruption, Conservatism, State’s failure to deliver Widespread human
drivers electoral fraud, limited nationalism, rejection of basic services, pollution, rights violations by
political freedoms institutional politics, anger rampant corruption, SARS. Demands to end
against corruption regressive tax system, gross inequality, youth
unemployment unemployment, lack of
basic services, endemic
corruption also featured.
Goal/s Removal of ex-President Impeachment of Complete overhaul of the Dissolution of SARS,
made Prime Minister President Rousseff political system investigations and reforms
from power to police
Selected movement Background to Activists learnt lessons Political vacuum left by a Lessons learnt during Movement launched in
characteristics movement, previous from protests in 1990s and small, leftist movevent in different waves of 2017, previous attempts
protests 2000s, as well as major São Paulo in 2013 after it mobilization since 2011. to campaign for reform
mobilizations in 2015 retreated from a leading In particular, 2015 had seen only small-scale
and 2016 role in free transportation “You Stink” campaign protests, lasting for a
protests that led to mass and subsequent day or two
mobilization against campaigns in 2016 and
corruption and political 2018 laid base for broad-
parties, which right-wing based movement
activists exploited
and refocussed on
Workers Party
Key groups represented Broad-based movement Mainly white, middle class Protests, led by leftist and Young men and women
in protests reaching across political families with no history student groups, excluded from multiple states, as
spectrum, including of activism and no ties to main sectarian political well as in the disapora.
professional NGOs, CSOs or political parties parties and involved Strong involvement of
activist groups, students participants drawn from social justice movements,
and ordinary people across classes, religions NGOs, feminist and
and geographic regions LGBT+ groups.
Leader/s Opposition Loose coalition of new Protesters rejected any Deliberately decentralized
parliamentarian right-wing groups – MBL, form of institutionalized movement. Activists
Nikol Pashinyan Vem Pra Rua, Revoltados leadership but high in each state had own
Online - coordinated level of participation of structures.
messaging and activities progressive leftist groups
and NGOs with their own
structures
Main activities Countrywide non-violent Static rallies with 1/4 of population took part Spontaneous
protests, roadblocks leaders giving speeches. in street protests, blocking protests across the
and other acts of civil Online messaging, roads, coordinated by country, galvanised by
disobedience bringing shared via Twitter, social media. Open "digital protests"
entire cities to a standstill Facebook and WhatsApp strike called with an
encampment erected
in Beirut.
Outcomes Short term Resignation of Prime Dilma Rousseff's PM resigned, elites Agreement to demands,
Minister (former government fell after remained in power. but new SWAT formed
President), Pashinyan won Senate voted to Technocratic government to replace SARS. Violent
subsequent election impeach her formed that was unable to dispersal of protesters.
lead change.
What became of Some activists ran Some of the movement’s Harrassed by police and Initial energy of the
movement for office or joined leaders ran for legislative military, lost momentum. protests lost after
executive, others elections, becoming Covid-19 ultimately ended repression, some groups
focussed on monitoring successful politicians protests. Leftist groups stopped activities, other
govt performance now focussed on took up monitoring
political organizing. role, others continued
mobilizing
Longer term Amid frustration at Far-right populist Jair PM returned, but 24 inquiries into SARS
slow pace of reforms Bolsonaro capitalised opposition landscape violations yet to report.
and losses in Nagorno- on anti-political and transformed, leftist Groups are organizing
Karabakh war, support for anti-lefitst discourse groups stronger ahead of 2023 elections.
Pashinyan decreased of protestsSetting the context: parliamentary system and Sargsyan’s second
and final presidential term was coming to an
what triggers protest end, he announced that he would be seeking
his party’s nomination as Prime Minister, having
movements? formerly assured the public that he would not
be doing so, and that the constitutional reform
Although they were triggered by different he had initiated was not aimed at extending
events ranging from a video of police brutality his rule.4 The following day, small activist-led
in Nigeria and a tax increase announcement in protests started in Yerevan under the banner
People protest during Armenia’s Velvet Revolution in April 2018 (Credit: Sona Manukyan via Flickr)
Lebanon to a planned power grab in Armenia “Reject Serzh”. In parallel, a respected and
and a political vacuum in Brazil, all protest charismatic, but largely marginal opposition
movements highlighted in this report were an leader and parliamentarian, Nikol Pashinyan,
expression of years of suppressed anger and was leading a 120-kilometre march from
grievances against those in power. Armenia’s second city Gyumri. Although it was
meant to generate widespread opposition
against Sargsyan’s move, by the time Pashinyan
Armenia’s Velvet Revolution (2018)
entered Yerevan on 13 April, he was met only
In April 2018, merely 11 days of peaceful mass by several hundred supporters, and no one
protests, roadblocks and sit-ins in Armenia’s expected that the campaign would soon bring
capital Yerevan and elsewhere in the country, the entire capital to a standstill.5 His initial rally
brought down President Serzh Sargsyan’s was so small and apparently unthreatening to
10-year-long rule marred by nepotism, the authorities that law enforcement officers
widespread corruption and electoral fraud. The were not even deployed. It is only when
series of events that unfolded during this period Pashinyan merged forces with local activists,
took the world completely by surprise, and their and began touring the city, calling for all
huge success seemed unbelievable even to Armenians to “Take a step, reject Serzh” through
Armenians themselves. non-violent protests and acts of disobedience
that the movement started growing with
The Velvet Revolution, as it became known, intensity.6 Once the ruling Republican Party of
was sparked by a deeply flawed constitutional Armenia (RPA) approved Sargsyan’s nomination
transition from a presidential to a parliamentary as Prime Minister, Pashinyan’s supporters took
system designed to extend President over the public radio headquarters demanding
Serzh Sargsyan’s grip on power. On 11 April airtime, and protests spread to other cities
2018, as the country was moving towards a across the country. A week later, hundreds of
9thousands of people, angry at years of endemic Pro-impeachment protests in Brazil
corruption, electoral fraud and limited political (2015-2016)
freedoms, and empowered by a long history of
activism, were mobilising every day, bringing Amidst a deepening economic crisis and
entire cities to a standstill. Although hundreds against a backdrop of Operation Car Wash, a
of protesters were arrested, the authorities corruption investigation into a state-backed
refrained from using force.7 company that implicated officials of the ruling
leftist Workers’ Party, millions of Brazilians
In a televised meeting on 22 April 2018, by then attended protests and marches between
sworn in as Prime Minister, Sargsyan appeared 2015-2016 to demand the impeachment
to threaten Pashinyan with the use of violence. of then President Dilma Rousseff.10 Her
Pashinyan was arrested shortly after, along with government finally fell down in August 2016
some of his closest supporters, in a move that after the Brazilian Senate voted to impeach
generated even greater popular protests that her for breaking budgetary laws, although
were joined by members of an army battalion. many analysts saw the move as a “retaliatory
All protest movements were an expression
of years of suppressed anger and grievances
against those in power.
The following day, Serzh Sargsyan resigned,
paving the way for a democratic transition political attack by a political rival.”11 During that
and for Pashinyan, who by then enjoyed time, President Rousseff’s supporters, who
widespread, uncontested support, to take were largely members of her own party, trade
over as his successor. Nonetheless, protests unionists and leftist civil society activists,
continued well into May until Pashinyan was staged mass counter demonstrations to prevent
elected Prime Minister by an RPA-controlled the impeachment, which they believed was
parliament. After appointing a cabinet, he a “coup”. Their message was difficult to put
successfully negotiated new parliamentary across, however, as they were defending a
elections, which his “My Step” alliance won in government, which they knew was implicated in
December 2018 with a 70% majority, allowing corruption – even if the president was not – and
him to finally embark on a reform process.8 as a result were unable to convince the wider
public, politicians or the media of their cause.
By then, the “revolution’s” objectives were
widely deemed to have been achieved, and The pro-impeachment movement was atypical
popular mobilization dissipated. Some activists for a country accustomed to protests such
opted to engage in institutionalised politics as Brazil: it was supported by mainly white,
by running for office in the parliamentary middle class families with no history of activism
elections, or joining the executive, while others or previous ties to civil society organisations
purposefully stayed away from politics and or political parties. In fact, its supporters
focussed on monitoring the government’s were united in their anger against corruption,
actions as part of their work with civil society conservatism, adherence to the national flag
organisations.9 Three years on, weakened by and a total rejection of institutional politics
significant losses in the latest round of the and all political parties. Although apparently
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan in leaderless and spontaneous at first, the pro-
late 2020, and popular frustration at the slow impeachment campaign and protests were
pace of reforms, particularly of the judiciary, organized by a loose coalition of newly formed
support for Pashinyan has dramatically right-wing organizations – Movimento Brasil
decreased, and the gains of the Velvet Livre (MBL), Vem Pra Rua and Revoltados
Revolution are threatened. Online. Ironically, these organizations were born
out of mass protests against the increase of
10bus fares initially organized in June 2013 in São immediately following the announcement: “This
Paulo by Movimento Passe Livre (MPL), a small was the spark, but not necessarily the reason”.15
radical, leftist, horizontal movement demanding Indeed, the ground for mass discontent was
free transportation.12 fertile: the Lebanese people were increasingly
angry at the state’s incompetence to deliver
The impeachment of President Rousseff basic services such as electricity, potable water
had wide repercussions on Brazilian politics or garbage collection; massive pollution; and
and society. Although the movement’s initial rampant corruption which they believed was
stated aim was to oust the entirety of Brazil’s the cause behind a deepening economic crisis,
corrupt political elite, regardless of where a regressive tax system, unemployment, and
they stood on the political spectrum, protests deteriorating standards of living. In the lead-
stopped almost as soon as Dilma Rousseff was up to the protests, unprecedented wildfires,
impeached and her political rival Michel Temer which ravaged much of the country, exposed
took over the presidency.13 Despite their initial state negligence even further as ordinary
Brazilians stage a demonstration against Dilma Rousseff at Paulista Avenue in São Paulo, Brazil on April 17, 2016. (Credit: Dario Oliveira/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
rejection of institutional politics, which was people rushed to provide assistance to those
instrumental in mobilizing protesters for nearly affected, while the government was forced to
two years, some of the movement’s leaders rely on volunteer firefighters and foreign help,
ran for legislative elections, becoming highly having failed to maintain its own firefighting
visible and successful politicians. As they equipment over the past decade.16
embarked on their political journey, they lent
support to Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right populist In the evening of 17 October 2020, groups
and defender of Brazil’s military rule’s record of youths took to the streets of Beirut
who eventually won presidential elections in spontaneously as calls for protests on social
2018, having successful exploited the anti- media grew by then and were increasingly
political system discourse, anti-partisanship disseminated by journalists and Lebanon’s
and anti-leftist feelings that emerged from the numerous activist networks. The protesters
2015-2016 protests.14 started marching and blocked major
crossroads in and around the capital, coming
at one point across the Minister of Education’s
The October Revolution in Lebanon (2019) convoy whose bodyguards fired shots in the air,
In Lebanon, a new round of taxes (including on only angering people further, and generating
WhatsApp calls) announced by the government wider support for the protests. After several
on 17 October as part of broader austerity hours, the riot police attempted to disperse
measures was the straw that broke the camel’s peaceful crowds with tear gas and rubber
back. As explained by an activist with Li Haqqi, bullets, prompting some protesters to throw
a progressive leftist group, which was one of stones and engage in low-level violence.17
the first to call for protests on social media Although the government announced a reversal
11of the tax measure on WhatsApp calls, it was rights violations, including extrajudicial
too little too late. By then, an open strike was executions, torture and other ill-treatment,
declared to force the Prime Minister to resign, rape and extortion by members of the unit.23
and protests started spreading to other cities However, they would rarely attract more than
and towns, with up to a quarter of Lebanon’s several hundred supporters, and would usually
four million population coming out into the dissipate after a day or two following the
streets at one point.18 A powerful, apparently government’s empty promises to reform SARS.
leaderless and decentralized movement that None were able to generate the sustained mass
seemed, at least in its initial days, to transcend mobilization and global support seen by the
Lebanon’s sectarian, political, ideological latest round of EndSARS protests in late 2020.
and class divides was formed to demand a
complete overhaul of the political system. On 3 October 2020, an activist posted a video
Protesters appeared to be united in their on Twitter alleging the killing of a young man
rejection of the entire political elite under the by SARS officers in Delta state. Although it
slogan: “kullon ya’ni kullon” (“all means all” in generated widespread condemnation on social
the Lebanese dialect of Arabic).19 media, it is unlikely that it would have gone viral
had it not been for an innovative online protest
Some civil society groups and activists set launched by activists and Nigerian social media
up an encampment in Beirut’s exclusive influencers that quickly gained great visibility
downtown district, while other protesters both in the country and across the world. The
continued blocking roads with burnt tires, outrage on social media galvanised tens of
mounds of dirt or garbage containers. thousands of young men and women who
Although Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned started taking to the streets spontaneously,
after less than two weeks of protests, other often motivated by their personal experience
politicians who had dominated Lebanese of police harassment and brutality or their
public life for decades remained in power. relatives and friends’ accounts. First in Lagos
A new, fairly unknown Prime Minister was and then in other states, protesters demanded
eventually appointed in January 2020 to form that SARS be dissolved. Established civil
a technocratic government that was unable to society organizations and activist groups as
lead change. By then, the economic crisis was well as newly formed, crowdfunded networks
deepening even further, while the authorities’ started coordinating actions on the ground
repression of the largely peaceful protests and offered legal and medical support to those
intensified, with riot police “firing large amounts arrested or injured during protests, which
of teargas at protesters, beating some severely,” were often met with excessive force including
and conducting violent arrests.20 In parallel, water cannons and tear gas.24 Demonstrations
security and military agencies used defamation organised in support of the movement by
laws to harass activists and journalists,21 while diaspora Nigerians took place in major cities
attacks against protesters orchestrated by around the world including Berlin, Toronto,
pro-government groups continued, often London, Geneva, New York and Paris.
turning protests into riots. The movement
eventually lost momentum, and many ordinary Grievances started growing almost as quickly
people returned home, with only the most as the movement itself, and on 11 October,
committed activists staying on the streets.22 protesters issued a 5-point demand statement,
Disagreements over strategy set in, dividing which included the release of all detained
the movement. Eventually, in March 2020, protesters; justice and adequate compensation
Lebanon declared a state of health emergency for victims of police brutality; the setting up of
in response to the Covid-19 pandemic and independent bodies to oversee investigations
protests fizzled out. into police brutality; the retraining and
psychological evaluation of former SARS
members; and an increase in police salaries
End SARS protests in Nigeria (2020) as a way to reduce extortion. Many protesters,
though, expanded their demands beyond
Campaigns calling for the dismantling of
police reform and called for broader systemic
Nigeria’s notorious Special Anti-Robbery
change to address gross inequality, youth
Squad (SARS) have been periodically taking
unemployment and a lack of basic services
place across Nigeria for years, with activists
due to endemic corruption.25 On 13 October,
publicly denouncing widespread human
12in a meeting with the National Human Rights
Commission, civil society organisations,
here’s no success
T
activists and celebrities, the police’s Inspector
General accepted all five demands made by
like failure: debunking
the movement.26 However, almost immediately spontaneity
after, the authorities announced the formation
of a new unit, the Special Weapons and The spectacular nature of mass protests
Tactics Team (SWAT), to replace SARS, in a attracts global attention whilst they are
move that generated wide condemnation and ongoing, with commentators pointing to
raised serious doubts about the authorities’ the power of social media and other digital
willingness to engage in meaningful reforms.27 technologies to replace organizing structures
and overcome weak ties,31 but interest often
Protests continued and concentrated mainly fades away almost as soon as people leave the
at the Lekki toll gate and Alausa in Lagos, streets. Success and failure are usually seen
where on 20 October, soldiers opened live fire through a lens of short-term political gains,
at protesters, killing at least 12 people.28 With even though protests often occur in cycles,
violence breaking out following the killings, and with periods of mobilizing and organizing
after some people, who activists say were not in between. Indeed, although collective
mobilization follows “a recurrent dynamic
Success and failure are usually seen through a lens
of short-term political gains, even though protests
often occur in cycles, with periods of mobilizing
and organizing in between.
associated with the EndSARS movement, set of ebb and flow”,32 contemporary social
police stations on fire and engaged in acts of movements have often been characterized
looting and vandalizing,29 authorities imposed as social media “revolutions”, “a spontaneous
curfews, while activist groups largely called for coming together, a natural collective expression
an end to protests. Since then, many have been of indignation, or a magical connection of
subjected to arrests, had their bank accounts people on Facebook or Twitter.”33 The focus on
frozen or had travel bans imposed against the power of social media often hides the huge
them. Others decided to flee the country “behind the scenes organization” involved in
to avoid violations. Independent television mobilizing people, which is rarely reported on
stations were subjected to arbitrary fines for in the news, and activists often benefit “from
using social media footage in their reporting ‘spontaneity narratives’ such as presenting
on the security forces’ violent response to their demands as the will of the people, or
the protests.30 Whilst judicial panels of inquiry proving autonomy from the existing power
have been set up across 24 states in Nigeria structure they want to challenge”.34 Whilst
to investigate SARS violations, and have there is no denying that activists nowadays rely
at times included activists, lawyers or civil heavily on social media to call for protests and
society workers associated with the EndSARS organize, more often than not, online networks
movement, they have yet to conclude their do not provide a sufficient explanation for
work and present recommendations. The the emergence and mobilization of major
initial movement’s momentum has largely died movements. Most such movements include
down, though some groups say that they keep both experienced activists with a long history
organizing in preparation for Nigeria’s 2023 of dissent and mobilization, and newcomers,
general elections. who often become accidentally involved by
merely showing up at a protest, driven by
curiosity or specific grievances. Any powerful
13movement therefore includes elements of first time, and as a result, had yet to establish
continuity and change, with activists learning the networks and trust that are so essential in
from past struggles and earlier movements.35 any social movement building, but even more
A social movement scholar explained this so in a polarized environment.38 Even though
dynamic in relation to recent autonomous the campaign did not manage to spread
social movements: beyond Beirut, or attract mass participation, it
was largely seen as the beginning of organizing,
“The key difference between the and the formation of new ties.39 These informal
movements of the squares that survived networks consolidated during the 2015 “You
and the ones that didn’t was actually Stink” campaign and wave of protests launched
the presence of pre-existing networks in response to Beirut’s garbage crisis that
in the locations in which they erupted… exposed state corruption and mismanagement.
However, yet again, the protests did not grow
Social media can be mobilised and used
beyond downtown Beirut. Seen primarily as a
as a way to channel unrest, indignation, cause pioneered by “the liberal middle class”,
outrage, demands, which can also they did not manage to galvanise grassroots
escalate very quickly into a mass support.40 Further lessons were learnt from
presence on the streets [...] But what organizing attempts during the 2016 municipal
distinguishes [movements] that evaporate and 2018 general elections, as well as smaller
afterwards into not much […] versus really campaigns “led by feminists, migrant workers,
building and re-fertilizing and revitalizing public sector employees, [and] the families of
social movement communities is actually the disappeared” in addition to periodic waves
pre-existing networks of experienced of mobilization around refugee and housing
rights, corruption, and environmental, social
activists and some kind of infrastructure.
and economic justice.41 According to research
By that I don’t mean institutions and by Lebanon Support, a local NGO, the October
organizations, but I mean a community 2019 protests were preceded by some 472
that has an organizational infrastructure collective actions, including protests, strikes,
and a reciprocal alliance and identity with roadblocks and solidarity events, organized in
each other.”36 support of these causes since 2017.42
Indeed, in all the cases examined in this report, The effects of this gradual accumulation of
activists’ narratives focussed on learning knowledge, which people were able to draw
processes, and an accumulation of experiences upon during the October Revolution, is perhaps
from previous waves of mobilization that in best expressed by a Lebanese activist with
some cases went back decades. In Lebanon over 20 years’ experience: “If there’s something
for example, activists and researchers point out that I’ve learnt during these past 10 years, it
that the origins of the 2019 October Revolution is that every act we make, every meeting we
date back to the mobilization of 2011 when attend, every demonstration, every protest we
up to several thousand protesters went out go to, every blog we write, every article we
into the streets of Beirut to demand the end of publish – this is all part of a long movement, a
political sectarianism, echoing the same call 10-year-long movement after which you start
repeated in demonstrations across the region seeing real change.”43
at the time: “the people want the fall of the
regime”. It was then that the slogan “all means Although Lebanon’s October Revolution did
all”, which became so successful in creating not immediately produce the change that
a collective identity in the first weeks of the people wanted to see, and merely within
October Revolution, first appeared. However, a year of resigning, Saad Hariri was again
the ground for making such radical demands appointed as prime minister in a bid to gain
was not ready, and the call was largely seen international support and avoid a complete
as imported from Arab Spring protests.37 economic collapse, the opposition landscape
Indeed, the protests were dominated by a was dramatically transformed during that time,
strong presence of political parties, dividing with some leftist groups emerging stronger
participants along sectarian and ideological following the wave of mobilization and currently
lines. This was particularly problematic since expanding efforts towards community-building
the majority of protesters were meeting for the and political organizing.44
14Graffiti and street art, Beirut, October 2019 (Credit: Freimut Bahlo)
Armenia is another case where continuity Revolution activists stem from protests against
between movements that had formed over election fraud, which started in 1996, and smaller
decades played a major role, and largely civic initiatives of the 2000s. With the exception
contributed to the peaceful political transition of protests which took place following the 2008
of the Velvet Revolution. As explained by presidential elections – lasted 10 days, were
an Armenian political analyst, “[To] those violently suppressed and resulted in the killing
unacquainted with the realities of Armenian of 10 protesters as well as mass arrests and
politics, it seemed that the huge protests prosecutions – these demonstrations usually
came out of nowhere to attract hundreds of failed to sustain large-scale mobilization for any
thousands of people and engulf the whole length of time, enabling the authorities to ignore
country. To those familiar with Armenian them until they would dissipate by themselves.
realities, the fact of the protests themselves was However, even if they did not threaten the
not surprising, but what seemed unlikely was authorities sufficiently to disperse them with
that the protests could ever succeed, since the force or enter into negotiations, they “prevented
numerous political and civic protest movements Armenia from becoming a full-fledged
that had taken place in Armenia in preceding autocracy”, and “created networks of activism
years had mostly ended in vain… [But] it was that enabled mass mobilization in 2018.”48
precisely the legacy of those ‘failed’ protests
that had prepared the success of 2018.”45 In addition, many small-scale civic initiatives
emerged out of the 2008 protests, which
Indeed, civic activism and protests have been were attended by large numbers of youths,
a feature of Armenia’s political culture since including students, who purposefully distanced
1988 when a movement had mobilized on themselves from political parties, claiming
and off for about three years to demand a to be non-partisan and non-political. In the
transfer of the Nagorno-Karabakh region from years that followed, they mainly focussed
Soviet Azerbaijan to Armenia46 and to provide on social and environmental causes such
assistance to Armenian refugees fleeing as preventing the demolition of an open-air
Azerbaijan as well as victims of a devastating theatre in Yerevan or a harmful education or
earthquake. The activism and volunteerism pension reform. They adopted “horizontal
of that period was not only instrumental in structures, spontaneity, flexibility [and a]
shaping Armenia’s post-Soviet identity but also narrow focus” while also aiming for “relatively
made people realise that better support and rapid outcomes”.49 Because of their apolitical
organisation structures were needed in light nature, and the protesters’ strategy to enter
of the state’s failure to lead an effective relief into negotiations with the government, rather
effort.47 However, most lessons learnt by Velvet than calling for its overthrow, they were largely
15seen as unthreatening and tolerated by the While there is no doubt that social media allow
authorities. In 2018, these groups brought their movements to mobilize and grow dramatically
accumulated knowledge, forms of organizing within hours, without the involvement of
and tested tactics to the protests successfully formal organizations, collective decisions or
revolutionising their character from the onset. established leaders, the sole reliance on the
internet can in many cases lead to failure. As
A protest leader explained how this learning explained by a sociologist whose academic
process was put to use during the Velvet research focuses on movements, privacy
Revolution: “Yes, there are new people. For and data, “[O]lder movements had to build
example, a couple of people [in organising their organizing capacity first, working over
roles] were very new, but there are also people long periods and expending much effort.
from previous movements. I think that all the The infrastructure for logistics they created,
previous movements […] have led up and using the less developed technology that
contributed to this movement. They have was available to them at the time, also helped
formed the foundation of this movement. We develop their capacity for the inevitable
have learned a lot. For example, the positivity of next steps that movements face after their
this movement was taken from the No Pasaran initial events (be it a march, a protest, or
mobilisation, where we saw that it worked and an occupation) is over. Modern networked
brought results.”50 movements can scale up quickly and take care
of all sorts of logistical tasks without building
Of all these movements, two waves of any substantial organizational capacity before
mobilization had probably the biggest impact the first protest or march.”54
on the Velvet Revolution: the 2015 Electric
Yerevan protests against a rise in electricity The EndSARS protests in Nigeria appear to be
prices, when between 10,000 to 20,000 people a case where the internal capacity, cohesion
took to the streets, and huge demonstrations and identity of the movement had not been
in 2016 in favour of a peaceful resolution of an sufficiently developed before the protests
armed takeover of a police station by former started growing and gained mass national and
fighters of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict international visibility. Indeed, although the
and some opposition activists. In the first, initial EndSARS campaign, which called for a
activists demonstrated their great disruptive dissolution of SARS and a police reform, was
capacity by blocking the capital’s major roads, first launched in late 2017 by a group of human
and even though they lost momentum after rights defenders and organizations that had
the government managed to convince some been raising awareness on the unit’s violations
of them to move the protests to Yerevan’s through advocacy, “rallies and marches”,
Freedom Square, where they no longer public talks and social media actions,55 the
threatened daily life, and eventually dissipated October 2020 digital protests were started
after some limited concessions, the movement by a separate group of tech-savvy activists,
showed “the potential for a youth-based media strategists and entrepreneurs. The
innovative peaceful protest”.51 However, it power of social media allowed anyone to lend
also demonstrated the limits of a relatively their support and eventually the movement
inexperienced, leaderless movement when was made up of different NGO and activist
faced with a government’s response that communities with different agendas and no
required it to adapt its tactics. As explained by established networks between each other. New
an Armenian political analyst: this experience groups such as the LGBTQ network Safe Hquse
“helped Armenian activists of various stripes or the Feminist Coalition, founded only three
to put aside their ideological differences and months before the protests, emerged as some
concerns about ‘politicization’ and ‘partisanship’ of the protest leaders online by successfully
and consolidate around Pashinyan and his using their huge following on social media to
Civil Contract party during the April 2018 raise funds for the movement.56 Although they
events”.52 The second movement exposed the were able to use their social media following
ineffectiveness of violent actions, and gave the to greatly amplify the movement’s cause
authorities an excuse to use repression against internationally, and even though they organized
activists and conduct scores of arrests citing assistance to protesters on the ground by
security concerns.53 By doing so, it helped coordinating legal or medical aid, food, water
reinforce the insistence on non-violence by and other supplies, they were relatively
protest leaders in 2018. unknown amongst Nigeria’s civil society
16A Nigerian youth holds a protests card during a march against police brutality on October 16, 2020, in Lagos, Nigeria. (Credit: Ajibola Fasola via Shutterstock)
organizations and leftist social justice groups
such as Revolution Now that were coordinating
The risks and pitfalls
protests on the ground, and had a long history
of activism. They had no shared history of
of leaderlessness and
collective action or pre-existing networks over-reliance on strong
from previous protest cycles to rely on when
disagreements over the aims of the movement leadership
erupted, including with the original coordinator
Born out of protesters’ frustration with
of the 2017 EndSARS campaign, who distanced
delegating power to others, a desire to have
himself from the protests claiming that they
their voices heard, and “a belief that all leaders
had been “hijacked” by others.57
will inevitably be corrupted or co-opted”,
leaderless movements have been a real
The lack of established ties and networks
feature of the past decade.59 Although on the
between the different groups that started the
surface activists often categorically reject
protests online was also a major weakness
any formal leadership, in practice, however,
after the violent dispersal of protesters at Lekki
movements are rarely completely leaderless.
in Lagos, as there did not appear to be a unified
They are often made up of different networks
strategy on how to sustain the mobilization,
and groups with their own internal structures
and with many participants fearing further
and hierarchies, and the question of leadership
repression, the initial energy of the protests
usually arises when the “need for leadership
was lost. Some groups stopped their activities
functions, such as coordination and public
and called on protesters to go back home;
representation”, appears.60
others, such as Citizens’ Gavel, who had been
providing legal aid to protesters, building on
On the one hand, participatory methods
their experience and networks prior to the
are hugely empowering for individuals, and
protests, started engaging with the monitoring
contribute to a sense of collective belonging
of the work of the judicial panels set up to
and shared identity, which is essential in
investigate violations by SARS. Others still, such
any collective action or community-building
as the social justice movement Revolution Now,
process. Leaderlessness is also a deliberate
who were active in coordinating protests on
strategy for some movements to avoid state
the ground, opted to continue the mobilization
repression, or as mentioned above, corruption
through community and political organizing.58
and co-optation. On the other hand, the
17absence of an institutionalized leadership or end of June.63 However, after the mayor of
mechanism to elect or appoint one can create São Paulo accepted MPL’s original demands
a political vacuum and constitute a significant and reversed the proposed bus fare increase,
weakness for many movements, reducing their the group was keen to end the protests and
own negotiating power or capacity to adopt retreated from a leading role. Demonstrators,
new tactics, particularly when authorities are though, wanted more: they stayed in the
changing their own response strategies.61 streets to demand better public services,
The October Revolution in Lebanon and the healthcare, education, and above all an end to
EndSARS movement in Nigeria both fall into rampant state corruption. By then the protests
this latter category, while the pro-impeachment were truly leaderless.
protests in Brazil are an example of how a
movement can successfully take advantage of A public policy expert who researched the
leaderlessness to advance its goals. By contrast, 2013 protests explained this process: “It was
Armenia’s experience shows the advantages of an upheaval, people were very angry and
strong leadership in a decentralized movement there was no legitimate political party to lead
but is also a warning of the risks of co-optation it them and the only organization that people
may present, if left unchecked. trusted – MPL – did not want to lead.”64 Despite
its enormous success, MPL was strongly
Researchers and activists have yet to committed to its horizontal structure and
fully understand how a small, progressive, avoided institutionalized politics, particularly
horizontal and non-political left-leaning after its aims were co-opted by a larger group
movement gave rise to right-wing, affiliated with the Communist party during a
previous wave of mobilization in Salvador in
conservative politics in a country
2005: “They did not want to become a political
like Brazil and eventually paved the party, and were founded precisely to avoid
way for Jair Bolsonaro’s election. politics; this is why they retreated in 2013,”
he added.65 Soon after, the protests, which
But one thing is bitterly clear: the success of lasted several months and spread across the
the pro-impeachment movement goes back country, became a conglomeration of different
to a wave of hopeful leftist protests, organized groups with different agendas, including
in São Paulo in 2013 by MPL, a group calling progressive, autonomous groups, trade unions,
for free public transport, and the political and members of the ruling Workers’ Party but
vacuum they created by MPL’s reluctance to also white, middle class families espousing
lead protesters in continuing their fight for traditional and conservative beliefs (in a country
real political and socio-economic change, where the majority of people identify as black
once the campaign’s short-term goals were or of mixed ethnicity). Although some leftist
achieved. Indeed, within a few days in June groups tried to form coalitions in cities such
2013, MPL’s protests against a hike in bus fare as Recife or Belo Horizonte, there was no
prices were able to mobilize two million people coordination with other networks across the
into the streets, having been able to galvanise country and no obvious leaders. In addition, as
only several thousands a week earlier.62 This mentioned above, the Workers’ Party was going
unexpected success for a radical group that through an internal legitimacy crisis, prompted
up until then attracted only leftist activists and by a corruption investigation, which also
anarchists, was mainly triggered by images affected the ability of trade unions to transform
of police violence against protesters, which the protests’ momentum into a progressive
were widely reported in mainstream media. movement for change. Crucially, though, these
Ordinary people, including many families, leftist groups failed to take up corruption, which
with no history of activism or established was one of the protesters’ key demands, and as
political identities started joining the protests, a result created a political void. In the absence
attracted by their non-political, leaderless and of on-the-ground leaders, people went online to
non-partisan nature. The lack of any hierarchy find answers or express their anger, where the
and the insistence on collective action and space was being filled by emerging right-wing
participation meant that people were able conservative groups such as MBL, Vem Pra Rua
to express their long-standing grievances and Revoltados Online (see section 6) – much
and anger against the establishment freely, to the horror of the original activists who started
with opinion polls suggesting that 89% of the protests in 2013.
Brazilians were supporting their cause by the
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