Five-year spectrum outlook 2020-24 The ACMA's spectrum management work program-consultation draft

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Five-year spectrum outlook
2020–24
The ACMA’s spectrum management
work program—consultation draft
APRIL 2020
Canberra
Red Building
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F +61 2 6219 5353

Melbourne
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Melbourne VIC

PO Box 13112
Law Courts
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Sydney
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Pyrmont NSW
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Email: info@acma.gov.au
Contents

Foreword                                                                    8
COVID-19—our response                                                      9
Key to icons                                                              10

Issues for comment                                                        11

At a glance—2020–21 work program                                          12
FYSO 2019–23 progress report                                              19

Part 1—Five-year spectrum outlook                                         20
Overview of current industry landscape                                    20
Spectrum uses                                                             21
Wireless (fixed and mobile) broadband, including 5G                       21
Private/industry vertical networks                                        25
Machine-to-machine communications and the Internet of Things              26
Broadcasting services                                                     28
Satellite communications                                                  30
Spectrum for government requirements                                      31
Spectrum sharing                                                          33
Class licensing and the spectrum commons                                  34
Amateur radio                                                             36

Part 2—Proposed 2020–21 annual spectrum
management work program                                                   37
Priorities and resources                                                  37

Planning                                                                  38
Implementing outcomes of WRC-19                                           38
Major band planning and replanning activities                             39
Monitoring                                                                40
600 MHz (617–698 MHz)                                                     40
1900–1920 MHz                                                             41
3.3 GHz (3300–3400 MHz)                                                   41
4.5 GHz (4400–4500 MHz)                                                   42
4.8 GHz (4800–4990 MHz)                                                   42

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Contents (Continued)

13 GHz (12.75–13.25 GHz)                                            43
40 GHz (37–43.5 GHz)                                                44
46 GHz (45.5–47 GHz)                                                45
47 GHz (47.2–48.2 GHz)                                              45
Bands studied under WRC-19 agenda item 1.16                         46
Bands being studied under WRC-23 agenda item 1.2                    46
Bands being studied under WRC-23 agenda item 1.4                    47
Initial investigation                                               47
‘Extended MSS L-band’ (1518–1525 MHz and 1668–1675 MHz)             47
2300–2302 MHz                                                       48
Preliminary replanning                                              48
1.5 GHz (1427–1518 MHz)                                             48
2 GHz (1980–2010 MHz and 2170–2200 MHz)                             50
3700–4200 MHz                                                       51
Replanning                                                          51
850 MHz expansion band (809–824 MHz and 854–869 MHz)                51
900 MHz (890–915 MHz and 935–960 MHz)                               52
1800 MHz (1710–1785 MHz and 1805–1880 MHz) in remote areas          53
5.6 GHz (5600–5650 MHz)                                             53
26 GHz (24.25–27.5 GHz)                                             54
28 GHz (27.5–29.5 GHz)                                              54

Optimising established planning frameworks                          56
3400–3575 MHz                                                       56
Recent developments                                                 56
Next steps                                                          56
Spectrum management advice and considering out-of-policy requests   56
Public protection and disaster relief (PPDR) in the 4.9 GHz band    56
Broadcasting                                                        57
Recent developments                                                 58
Activities planned for 2020–21                                      58
Satellite planning                                                  58
Recent developments                                                 59
Activities planned for 2020–21                                      59

acma     |   iv
Contents (Continued)

Spectrum arrangements for ‘small satellites’                                 60
Updating regulatory arrangements for space-based
communications systems                                                       60
Ongoing review of space licensing procedures                                 60
Filing and coordination of Australian satellite systems                      60
Updating procedures for submission of Australian satellite networks
to the ITU                                                                   60
Low interference potential devices                                           61
Progress achieved                                                            61
Activities planned for 2020–21                                               61
Amateur radio                                                                62
Activities planned for 2020–21                                               62
Ongoing review of spectrum planning, assignment and coordination
requirements                                                                 62
Progress achieved                                                            62
Activities planned for 2020–21                                               63
Review of spectrum licence technical frameworks                              63
Activities planned for 2020–21                                               63
Spectrum-sharing approaches                                                  63
Progress achieved                                                            63
Activities planned for 2020-21                                               64
Future band planning priorities                                              64
Activities planned for 2020–21                                               64

Forward allocation work plan                                                 65
Purpose of the forward allocation work plan                                  65
What we are proposing                                                        66
850 MHz expansion band                                                       67
900 MHz                                                                      67
1.5 GHz                                                                      68
3400–3575 MHz                                                                68
3700–4200 MHz                                                                69
26 GHz                                                                       69
28 GHz                                                                       70
Allocation priorities and sequencing                                         71

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Contents (Continued)

Timing considerations                                                 71

Licensing and licensing systems                                       74
Recent developments                                                   74
Mobile phone jammers in prisons                                       74
Drone jamming exemption arrangements                                  74
Activities planned for 2020–21                                        74
Amateur certificates of proficiency                                   74
Enabling trials of mobile phone jammers in prisons                    75
RNSS repeater trials                                                  75
400 MHz band                                                          75
Review of prohibition declarations and exemption determinations       75
Drone regulation                                                      75
Area-wide apparatus licence                                           76
Review of non-assigned amateur and outpost licensing arrangements     76
Review of scientific assigned and non-assigned apparatus licensing
arrangements                                                          77
Review of efficiency and effectiveness of Accredited Persons scheme   77

Pricing                                                               78
Recent developments                                                   78
Apparatus licence taxes                                               78
Commercial broadcasting taxes                                         78
Activities planned for 2020–21                                        78
Implementation of the government’s Spectrum Pricing Review            78
Commercial broadcasting taxes                                         79
New EME levy arrangements.                                            79
Other pricing updates                                                 79

Compliance and enforcement                                            80
Compliance priorities                                                 80
Recent developments                                                   80
Audit of small cell base stations                                     80
Licensing integrity                                                   80
Solar inverter suppliers                                              80

acma     |   vi
Contents (Continued)

Activities planned for 2020–21                          81
5G EME compliance                                       81
Interference                                            81

International engagement                                82
International meetings 2019–20                          82
New and ongoing activities planned for 2020–21          82

Appendix A—Sunsetting instruments                       84

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Foreword

Spectrum use continues to evolve rapidly in Australia. The Australian Communications
and Media Authority (ACMA) is Australia’s spectrum manager and is responsible for
ensuring radiofrequency spectrum is managed in a way that maximises the overall
public benefit derived from its use.

We are continually monitoring the environment to identify opportunities for
improvements in spectrum management arrangements and accommodating new and
changed uses of spectrum, while ensuring the continuation of existing uses that are of
value to the community.

Managing spectrum efficiently and effectively for the benefit of all Australians is a key
priority for the ACMA.1 We rely on spectrum users to keep us informed of the way that
technology developments, international harmonisation efforts and market changes
influence demand for new and existing uses of spectrum, which in turn, informs our
priorities for planning and making spectrum available.

2019 was a World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC) year. WRCs are
scheduled every three to four years to update the treaty-level Radio Regulations and
are the most important international forum for cooperation on the harmonisation of
spectrum use. We have commenced work on the identification and implementation of
relevant outcomes from the 2019 WRC (WRC-19) in our domestic planning
arrangements—these will remain key priorities in 2020–21.

In particular, we are testing industry appetite for the possible commencement of
replanning work in the 40, 46 and 47 GHz bands. These bands were considered at
WRC-19, with interest both from the terrestrial and satellite communications sectors (in
the case of the 40 and 47 GHz bands) for broadband use. These bands are currently
included in the monitoring stages of our spectrum planning process, but we are
seeking industry views on whether they should progress to the initial investigation
stage or whether priority should be given to the 1.5 GHz band (also of relevance to
both terrestrial and satellite communications interests). Other mid-band spectrum in
the 2 GHz and 3.7-4.2 GHz bands is being progressed this year towards a preferred
planning option.

Additional spectrum releases across low, mid and high band spectrum forms the basis
for our allocation work program. These allocations are intended to make additional
spectrum available for 4G and 5G services in Australia, delivered via wireless
broadband (fixed and mobile) and satellite, and enable a range of uses to be
supported under a mix of licensing options.

We are progressing the allocation of the 26 GHz and 28 GHz millimetre wave bands,
via spectrum and apparatus licensing. Class licensing for satellite services is already
available in parts of the 28 GHz band, and class licensing for part of the 26 GHz band
for terrestrial uses is expected this year. Additional mid-band spectrum is expected to
become available as a result of the work underway to restack and reconfigure the 3.4–

1
 ACMA, 2019, accessed 23 April, .

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3.5 GHz band. In low band spectrum, an allocation of the 850 MHz expansion band
and 900 MHz band is anticipated for late in 2021.

In the past year, we have consulted with the radio broadcasting industry about the
future delivery of radio in Australia. A key outcome of our engagement with the radio
industry is a new framework for our priority-setting and decision-making in radio
broadcast planning. We have identified four radio broadcasting planning priorities in
relation to AM–FM conversions, coverage enhancements, digital radio channel
planning and supporting trials of new radio broadcasting technologies. This
consultation on our annual work program will help inform the prioritisation of planning
activities for the year.

We are continuing work with a range of government spectrum users whose capability
requirements continue to evolve, as they access new technologies needed to support
law enforcement, national interest, and government service delivery activities.

The ACMA has consulted annually with industry about its spectrum management
priorities through its five-year spectrum outlook (FYSO) since 2009. Since 2018, we
have published a draft FYSO for consultation ahead of settling the final FYSO. We are
continuing this approach and, subject to feedback on the draft work program, we are
working to publish a final FYSO 2020–24 early in the 2020–21 financial year.

The draft FYSO is set out as follows:
> At a glance—summarises the ACMA’s proposed activities for 2020–21
> Part 1—provides an overview of the technology, market competition, and policy
  drivers likely to shape the demand of spectrum over the next five years
> Part 2—gives detailed information about the ACMA’s planned work priorities for
  2020–21.

COVID-19—our response
The communications and media sectors are playing a critical role in enabling
Australian consumers, businesses and governments to communicate during the
COVID-19 pandemic. At a global level, the International Telecommunications Union
(ITU) acknowledges the important role of information and communications
technologies—of which spectrum is a key enabler—in helping to governments,
businesses and individuals cope with the pandemic.2

The ACMA is keen to ensure that its spectrum management arrangements continue to
support the Australian communications and media sectors in their response during this
period, but acknowledge that the impact of COVID-19 is being felt differently across
the industry sectors using spectrum. We are seeing increasing demand for
communications connectivity and for spectrum in some sectors, while economic
conditions are likely to constrain future spectrum demand in other sectors. Where we
have relevant information from the industry, we have reflected it in Part 1.

In the current context, we have considered it important to provide our annual work
program and outlook to support the planning and response efforts of the
communications and media sectors to the COVID-19 pandemic and we seek
information from spectrum users about the short, medium and longer-term demand for
spectrum use. During the pandemic, we will continue to update our regulatory
response and keep spectrum users and the public informed of changes.

2
    ITU, 2020, accessed 27 April 2020, .

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Key to icons
 FYSO icon      Subject area

                Wireless broadband

                Satellite

                Class licensing

                Internet of Things

                Radio and television broadcasting

                Amateur radio

                Point-to-multipoint

                Point-to-point

                Defence

                Aviation

                Maritime

                International interests and engagement

                Pricing

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Issues for comment
We invite comments on the draft FYSO 2020-–24 and on the following specific
questions:
1. What are the expected impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the short- and
   medium-term capacity of your industry?
2. Do you have any feedback on the ACMA’s approach to its spectrum work
   program in the current environment? Do you have alternative proposals or
   priorities?
3. Are there other technology developments or sources of spectrum demand
   that the ACMA should be aware of in considering spectrum management
   over the next five years?
4. Do you have any other feedback on the ACMA’s plans for monitoring, initial
   investigation, preliminary replanning or replanning of bands?
5. Do you have any comments about the ACMA’s approach to forward
   allocations?

                                                                   acma       |   11
At a glance—2020–21 work
program
The tables below provide a summary of our proposed key spectrum management
activities for the 2020–21 financial year. Although the FYSO is prepared on a financial
year basis, for ease of interpretation, references to quarters are calendar year
quarters:
> quarter 1 (Q1): 1 January–31 March
> quarter 2 (Q2): 1 April–30 June
> quarter 3 (Q3): 1 July–30 September
> quarter 4 (Q4): 1 October–31 December.

The ‘proposed timelines’ column has:
> timing for activities (these may be affected by the progression of other projects)
> details of opportunities for consultation and engagement. A summary of our
  planned spectrum consultations for 2020–21 is at Table 8.

Table 1:    Planning—major band planning and replanning activities

 Planning stage       Project priorities            Proposed timelines

 Monitoring           600 MHz (617–698 MHz)         Continue to monitor domestic
                                                    and international developments
                      1900–1920 MHz
                                                    in these bands to identify usage
                      3.3 GHz (3300–3400 MHz)       trends
                      4.5 GHz (4400–4500 MHz)
                      4.8 GHz (4800–4990 MHz)
                      13 GHz
                      40 GHz (37–43.5 GHz)
                      46 GHz (45.5–47 GHz)
                      47 GHz (47.2–48.2 GHz)
                      Bands studied under
                      WRC-19 agenda item 1.16
                      Bands being studied under
                      WRC-23 agenda item 1.2
                      Bands being studied under
                      WRC-23 agenda item 1.4

 Initial              ‘Extended MSS L-band’         Likely simultaneous review of the
 investigation        (1518–1525 MHz and            extended MSS L-band and the
                      1668–1675 MHz)                1.5 GHz bands

                      2300–2302 MHz                 Q4 2020: Following completion of
                                                    Technical Liaison Group (TLG)
                                                    process, consultation on possible
                                                    changes to support 5G

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Planning stage   Project priorities        Proposed timelines

Preliminary      1.5 GHz                   To be determined
replanning
                 2 GHz (1980–2010 MHz      Q2–3 2020: Options paper
                 and 2170–2200 MHz)
                                           Q4 2020: Planning decision
                                           paper

                 3700–4200 MHz             Q2–3 2020: Options paper
                                           Q4 2020: Planning decision
                                           paper

Replanning       850 MHz expansion band    Band is being cleared
                 (809–824 MHz and 854–     progressively. We continue to
                 869 MHz)                  consider options for optimising its
                                           use. Allocation timeframes are
                                           tied to those of the 900 MHz
                                           band

                 900 MHz (890–915 MHz      Allocation timeframes are tied to
                 and 935–960 MHz)          those of the 850 MHz expansion
                                           band

                 1800 MHz (1710–1785       Q2–3 2020: Discussion paper
                 MHz and1805–1880 MHz)
                 in remote areas

                 3400–3575 MHz             Q3–4 2020: Finalise restack of
                                           incumbent services
                                           Q2–3 2020: Consultation on
                                           point-to-multipoint apparatus
                                           licence arrangements in regional
                                           and remote areas
                                           Q4 2020 – Q2 2021:
                                           If the Minister makes a decision
                                           to designate spectrum, conduct
                                           activities to convert NBN Co’s
                                           apparatus licences to spectrum
                                           licences

                 5.6 GHz                   Q2–3 2020: Consult on revised
                                           arrangements

                 26 GHz (24.25–27.5 GHz)   Q4 2020: Finalise licensing
                                           arrangements for services in this
                                           band

                 28 GHz                    Q4 2020: Finalise licensing
                 (27.5–29.5 GHz)           arrangements for services in this
                                           band

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Table 2:        Planning—optimising established planning frameworks

    Planning area          Project priorities                                       Proposed
                                                                                    timelines

    3400–3575 MHz          Optimise spectrum and apparatus licence                  See Table 3:
                           arrangements in band adjacent to 3.6 GHz                 Forward allocation
                           band                                                     work plan

    Broadcasting           Develop and consult on proposals for                     Q3 2020: Consult
                           licence area plan (LAP) variations in
                           Brisbane

                           Develop and consult on a proposal to vary                Q3 2020: Consult
                           the Deniliquin LAP

                           Develop and consult on proposals for                     Q3 2020: Consult
                           variations in a number of licence areas in
                           NSW3 to enable AM–FM conversions

                           Consult on the digital radio channel plan                Q3 2020: Consult
                           (DRCP) for the Gold Coast, taking into
                           account the completion of frequency
                           allotment planning

                           Further consultation on whether variations               Q3 2020: Consult
                           to the DRCP for Brisbane are appropriate
                           to improve digital coverage

                           Develop and consult on proposals for                     Q4 2020: Consult
                           variations to the Remote Central and
                           Eastern Australia Radio LAP

                           Consult on potential for replanning analog               Q4 2020: Consult
                           radio services in Perth, following the
                           clearance of Band II television in Bunbury

    Satellite              Consider applications for test and                       Ongoing
                           demonstration purposes in the 2 GHz band

                           Manage filing and coordination of                        Ongoing
                           Australian satellite systems

    Low interference       Monitor developments, including updates                  Ongoing—update
    potential              on low duty cycle 900 MHz changes and 26                 planned for Q3
    devices (LIPD)         GHz (as per planning decisions)                          2020

    Amateur service        Seek industry views on implementation                    Q2–3 2020:
    in the frequency       issues, including appropriate technical                  Consult
    band 5351.5–           conditions and in which part of the band the
    5366.5 kHz             amateur service could be supported

3   This may include a subset of the following areas: Grafton, Taree, Inverell, Moree, Gunnedah, Tamworth,
Lismore, Mudgee, Young and Parkes. We are consulting with the licensees to determine indicative timelines
and relative priorities. Proceeding with these variations depends on the relevant licensees making timely
strategic business decisions on available implementation options.

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Planning area       Project priorities                           Proposed
                                                                  timelines

 Spectrum            Ongoing review of the spectrum planning      Ongoing
 planning,           technical framework to ensure its currency
                                                                  Q4 2020: Consult
 assignment and      and consistency with current technologies
                                                                  on draft updated
 coordination        and operational practices
                                                                  frequency
 requirements
                                                                  coordination
                                                                  review work

 Spectrum            Ongoing program of review of technical       Ongoing
 licence technical   frameworks below 4 GHz
 frameworks

 Spectrum            Ongoing consideration of new approaches      Q2–3 2020: Paper
 sharing             to spectrum sharing                          setting out next
 approaches                                                       steps

Table 3:   Forward allocation work plan

 Project             Proposed timelines—next steps
 priorities

 26 and 28 GHz       Q3 2020: Consult on:
 bands               > drafts of the technical framework instruments
                     > coordination and licensing arrangements for new FSS
                       gateway earth stations in the range 27–29.5 GHz
                     Q2–3 2020: Consult on draft allocation instruments for spectrum
                     licences
                     Q3 2020: Consult on taxation and other matters for apparatus
                     licenses in the 26 and 28 GHz bands
                     Q4 2020: Some apparatus licences in 26 and 28 GHz become
                     available for issue
                     Q1 2021: Auction of spectrum licences

 850/900 MHz         Q 3 2020: Consult on draft reallocation recommendation to
                     Minister

 3400–3575 MHz       Q3–4 2020: Finalise restack of incumbent services
                     Q4 2020 – Q2 2021: If the Minister makes a decision to
                     designate spectrum, conduct activities to convert NBN Co’s
                     apparatus licences to spectrum licences

                                                                       acma       |   15
Table 4:    Licensing and licensing systems

 Project priorities                   Proposed timelines

 Trial of mobile phone jammers at     Ongoing: Corrective Services NSW
 Goulburn Correctional Complex        commenced a two-year trial on 13 December
                                      2019 under the exemption determination

 400 MHz band                         Finalise the 400 MHz implementation project

 Review of prohibition declarations   Q2–3 2020: Consult on issues paper
 and exemption determinations

 Consider facilitating trials of      Q2–3 2020: Consult
 RNSS repeaters

 Consider changes to regulatory       Q2–3 2020: Consult
 arrangements for counter-drone
 equipment

 Review of non-assigned amateur       Q2–3 2020: Consult
 and outpost licensing
 arrangements with a view to
 reform

 Review of the accredited persons     Q2–3 2020: Consult with accredited persons
 scheme                               on the efficiency and effectiveness of the
                                      scheme
                                      Q4: Where appropriate, consultation on
                                      operational and/or regulatory changes to the
                                      scheme

Table 5:    Pricing

 Project priorities                   Proposed timelines

 Pricing review implementation        Q3 2020: Publish response to submissions
                                      paper. This paper will outline the work program
                                      to implement the Spectrum Pricing Review
                                      over 2020 and 2021

 Commercial broadcasting tax          Ongoing assessment of taxes throughout
 arrangements                         2020–21

 Preparation for review of            Q3, 2020: Release of the consultation paper
 Commercial Broadcasting (Tax)
                                      Q1 2021: Report to the Minister
 Act 2017

 Ongoing maintenance of the           2020–21
 current apparatus licence tax
 regime for matters like adjusting
 for inflation

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Project priorities                    Proposed timelines

 If the Minister directs the ACMA      Q2–3 2020: Implementation, with:
 about implementing new taxation       > amendment to apparatus licence tax
 arrangements so that industry can
                                         determinations
 contribute to the funding of EME
 research, implementation of new       > consultation on changes to spectrum
 EME levy arrangements.                  licence taxes
                                       > making of amendments

Table 6:   Compliance and enforcement

 Project priorities                    Proposed timelines

 5G compliance program to ensure       2020–21
 carrier’s compliance with EME
 standards under their licence
 conditions and obligations under
 the Mobile Base Station
 Deployment Code

 Compliance activities to manage       2020–21
 the risk of interference in two key
 areas:
 > unauthorised use of mobile
   phone repeaters
 > non-compliant activity in the
   construction/resources
   industry

Table 7:   International engagement

 Project priorities                    Proposed timelines

 ITU-R Study Group 4 block             Q4 2020 (21 October – 6 November 2020)
 meetings

 ITU-R Study Group 5 block             Q3 2020 (7–31 July)
 meetings
                                       Q4 2020 (4–24 November 2020 includes
                                       working party 5D)

 ITU-R Working party 5D meetings       Q2–3 2020 (24 June – 1 August)
                                       Q4 2020 (7–14 October and 17–19 November)

 First meeting of the APT              TBA (possibly August 2020)
 Conference Preparatory Group
 (Asia Pacific) for WRC-23
 (APG23-1)

                                                                        acma   |   17
Table 8:    Consultation plans
This table summarises consultations flagged throughout the draft FYSO from July
2020 onwards. This list of consultations is subject to change.

 Issue                                  Proposed timelines

 3400–3575 MHz                          Q2–3 2020: Consultation on point-to-
                                        multipoint apparatus licence arrangements
                                        in regional and remote areas
                                        Q2–3 2020: TLG to develop arrangements
                                        for urban excise areas
                                        Q4: Consultation on variation to 3.4 GHz
                                        technical framework to support urban
                                        excision

 Develop and consult on proposals for   Q3 2020
 LAP variations in Brisbane

 Develop and consult on a proposal to   Q3 2020
 vary the Deniliquin LAP

 Develop and consult on proposals for   Q3 2020
 variations in a number of licence
 areas in NSW to enable AM–FM
 conversions

 1800 MHz spectrum licence technical    Q2–3 2020: Consultation on variation
 framework review

 2.3 GHz spectrum licence technical     Q2–3 2020: Consultation on variation
 framework review

 Review of prohibition declarations     Q2–3 2020: Consultation paper
 and exemption determinations

 26 GHz spectrum licences               Q2–3 2020: Consultation on draft allocation
                                        instruments

 Annual update to the LIPD class        Q3 2020
 licence

 Area-wide apparatus licence (AWL)      Q3 2020
 types in the 26 and 28 GHz bands –
 consult on drafts of the technical
 framework instruments, coordination
 arrangements, other relevant matters

 Review of efficiency and               Q2–3 2020
 effectiveness of accredited persons
 scheme

 Consult on the DRCP for the Gold       Q3 2020
 Coast, taking into account the
 completion of frequency allotment
 planning

 Further consultation on whether        Q3 2020
 variations to the DRCP for Brisbane
 are appropriate to improve digital
 coverage

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Issue                                   Proposed timelines

 Develop and consult on proposals for    Q4 2020
 variations to the Remote Central and
 Eastern Australia Radio LAP

 Potential for replanning analog radio   Q4 2020: Consultation paper
 services in Perth, following the
 clearance of Band II television in
 Bunbury

 FYSO/Annual work program                Q2 2021: Consultation on draft

FYSO 2019–23 progress report
The FYSO 2019–23 six-monthly progress report was published in February 2020. It
shows the status of activities in the most recent FYSO and how our 2019-20 work
program is tracking.

A 12-month progress report will be published in Q3 2020, around the same time as the
final FYSO for 2020–24.

We’ll provide regular updates on processes and explanations of changes to plans.

                                                                       acma   |    19
Part 1—Five-year spectrum
outlook

Part 1 takes a broad view of trends in markets, technology and spectrum uses that
inform the ACMA’s medium-term planning, allocation and reallocation activities.

The ACMA takes account of a range of factors in planning its spectrum management
work. We monitor developments in radiocommunications technology, including
equipment availability, that influence how spectrum is used. We also consider the
broader policy environment, to inform the prioritisation of our spectrum work program.

Overview of current industry landscape
With over 158,000 radiocommunications licences on issue, representing a diverse
range of spectrum uses, demand for new spectrum and changes to existing
arrangements for licensees continues to evolve quickly.

Two important influences on future demand for spectrum are technology
developments that create new use cases and have potential to improve spectrum
utilisation and efficiency, and international cooperation on the use of scarce spectrum
and orbital resources.

International trends driving demand for spectrum include the appetite for wireless
broadband, particularly in the context of 5G services, enterprise-based network
developments, ongoing commercialisation of Internet of Things (IoT) applications,
advances in broadcasting technology, and rapid innovations in satellite technologies
and services. We are also seeing a rapid evolution of drones and remotely-piloted
aircraft being deployed across private, commercial and government uses.

There is also ongoing innovation in radiocommunications technologies that support
more efficient spectrum use. Examples include more efficient radiocommunications
modulation and coding techniques, and improved antenna technology that provides
greater options in the use of high frequency bands.

The ACMA; the Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and
Communications (the Department); Australian industry and government stakeholders
participate in international radiocommunications forums to promote and protect
Australian interests in spectrum management, including spectrum harmonisation and
international frequency coordination. The peak international forum is the International
Telecommunication Union’s (ITU) WRC, which reviews and revises the Radio
Regulations, the international treaty-level document regarding use of the spectrum and
satellite orbits.

The last WRC meeting was last held in October to November 2019. Outcomes of
WRC-19 will be an input into the ACMA’s domestic spectrum management work, in
particular a likely update to the Australian Radiofrequency Spectrum Plan. The next
WRC will be held in 2023 (WRC-23) and will consider new frequency allocation and
procedural matters across a range of services.

20   |   acma
The ACMA’s spectrum planning work program supports the evolution of technical
frameworks that support more efficient technologies within an existing use. Over time,
adjustments to technical frameworks have freed up additional spectrum for new uses
or by new spectrum users. This year’s work program also identifies bands and
frequencies where we are updating and optimising technical frameworks to support
more efficient technologies and spectrum use.

As a wholesale input, the value of spectrum for commercial uses comes from its use in
downstream output markets to deliver services to end-users, such as consumers and
businesses. Spectrum is a significant determinant of an operator’s competitive ability
as it influences network capacity, quality of service as well as the geographic areas
where an operator can offer services and entry into new markets. Accordingly, the
state of competition in downstream markets can influence the demand for spectrum.

The management and allocation of scarce spectrum resources, including the timing of
major spectrum allocations, can have a significant impact on the nature of competition
in downstream markets that rely on spectrum. In order to promote competition and
maximise the public benefit from spectrum, safeguard measures may be considered
during the planning and allocation process for specific bands to prevent significant
concentration and/or disparities in spectrum holdings between competitors in
downstream markets. The ACMA will seek input from stakeholders as part of ensuring
the consideration of competition is integrated in the planning and management of
spectrum.

The actual utility of spectrum is also affected by the interference protection
environment. That is why we have a strong continuing focus on compliance priorities
directed towards 5G EME compliance and interference management, with a particular
focus this year on mobile phone repeaters and interference in the construction and
resources industry.

The ACMA’s response to these demand pressures for 2020–21 is outlined in more
detail in the planning and allocation work stream activities in Part 2.

In Part 1 (the five-year spectrum outlook), where we alert stakeholders to the medium
and longer-term pressures shaping and informing the overall demand environment for
spectrum, we recognise that in the short term, the outlook is likely to be affected by
significant uncertainty arising from the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Spectrum uses

Wireless (fixed and mobile) broadband, including 5G
The wireless broadband markets are well established, with operators deploying
networks in both the mobile and fixed wireless markets.

Demand for spectrum to support both mobile and fixed wireless broadband
applications has been a major driver for changes in highest-value spectrum use across
a range of bands.

The fixed wireless market generally provides coverage in locations where it is price
competitive against alternatives such as mobile broadband or satellite services. The
market comprises a combination of national providers (for example, NBN Co, Optus
and Uniti) and regional and specialist providers (for example, Countrytell, Beam
Internet, Spirit Telecommunications and Dreamtilt).

                                                                       acma     |      21
S&P Global market intelligence estimates for the Australian market that fixed wireless
broadband comprises 2.7 per cent of wireless broadband revenue (estimated
revenues of $142 million in 2019) share. S&P projected, prior to COVID-19, revenues
to remain steady at this percentage over the next 10 years (estimated revenues of
$198 million in 2029).4

In contrast, the mobile broadband market has three operators accounting for over
70 per cent of the telecommunications services market. 5 In the past year, 5G services
have been planned or deployed in Australia by Optus, Telstra and VHA.

IBIS World estimates industry revenues attributed to the mobile industry were
$23.9 billion in 2019.6 S&P considers that the key market growth area will be in rural
Australia and 5G network deployments in key urban areas. It was expected, prior to
COVID-19, that mobile subscription numbers would grow at a compound annual rate
of 2.04 per cent from 2019 to 2029.7

Wireless mobile broadband operators have responded to the impacts of the COVID-19
through various measures, such as:
> offering bonus data on mobile plans for the month of April 2020 8
> Telstra bringing forward $500 million of its capital expenditure program by
  six months.9

We anticipate further spectrum will be needed to support the growth in broadband
applications and mobile data in the short and medium term.

Wireless broadband use cases
In planning for future spectrum demand, we recognise three broad categories of
wireless broadband use cases and note that network deployments may reflect
combinations of these categories.

The first category is wide-area subscriber networks, served by ubiquitous base
stations operated by one or more service providers—this category could be
considered ‘conventional’ telecommunication carrier mobile broadband, or in some
cases fixed operations.

The second category reflects more limited market subscriber networks over smaller,
localised areas, including, but not limited to, fixed wireless broadband and fleet-
oriented services. Services provided by Wireless ISPs (WISPs) are a good example of
this type of use.

Many of the bands that are suitable for fixed wireless access (FWA) are subject to
spectrum licensing in the relevant geographical areas. Spectrum licensing
arrangements may not be ideal for small and medium enterprises (SME), and
apparatus-licensed arrangements are often preferred. There are a number of possible
bands and access arrangements at various stages of maturity that may provide

4
  S&P Global market intelligence, Australian fiber set for long-term gains, Kagan Research – S&P Global
Market Intelligence platform.
5
  IBISWorld, Telecommunications Services in Australia, June 2019, p. 19.
6
  $37.6 billion multiplied by 63.6%. IBISWorld, Telecommunications Services in Australia, June 2019, p. 7.
7
  S&P Global market intelligence, Australian fiber set for long-term gains, Kagan Research – S&P Global
Market Intelligence platform.
8
  WhistleOut, 2020, accessed 23 March 2020, .
9
  Telstra, 2020, accessed 23 March 2020, .

22   |     acma
options for SME FWA interests (recognising that not all bands, if implemented, will be
suitable for all FWA deployment models).

Most notably, these bands are:
> 3.4 GHz: arrangements will be developed to make 35–67.5 MHz of spectrum
  available in regional areas and an extra 175 MHz in remote areas
> 3700–4200 MHz: currently under review
> 5.6 GHz band (5600–5650 MHz): arrangements in place shared with weather radar
> 26 GHz (24.25–27.5 GHz): to be made available for apparatus licensing outside
  the geographic areas designated for spectrum licensing
> 28 GHz (27.5–29.5 GHz): arrangements currently under development.

There are also a number of other bands being monitored or under review that may be
candidates for new spectrum-sharing approaches.

The third category of wireless broadband covers business enterprise services
operated by private entities within the confines of their own premises or land estate—
for example, a hospital, education precinct or an industrial or transport facility.

The rapid development of the next generation of wireless broadband technology,
known as 5G, has emerged as a key driver of change to existing spectrum
arrangements. This is due to:
> the potential for replanning additional spectrum bands to support its deployment
> the characteristics of 5G (such as the need to accommodate broader channel
  bandwidths)
> the fact that some of the bands into which 5G will be introduced challenge us to
  consider new ways to plan and license that spectrum.

Reviewing the arrangements in bands that are already licensed for wireless
broadband is important to ensure existing allocations are efficient and can cater for
new technology developments, such as 5G. The ACMA’s work program includes a
number of projects that consider optimising existing planning frameworks.

The definition of 5G and related spectrum harmonisation and technology specifications
and standards have continued to mature. Work has progressed in the ITU
Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R) to define IMT-202010, and spectrum
harmonisation considerations relating to bands that were studied and, in some cases
identified, at WRC-19. The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) continues to
develop 5G-related specifications in Release 15 and Release 16.

Spectrum bands supporting wireless broadband use
From a spectrum management perspective, 5G uses spectrum across a wide range of
frequency bands. This will include:
> ‘low-band’ spectrum below 1 GHz, much of which is already used for mobile
  broadband networks
> ‘mid-band’ spectrum between 1 and 6 GHz, some of which is already used for
  wireless broadband
> ’high-band’ spectrum, above 6 GHz, specifically the previously little-used millimetre
  wave (mmWave) bands.11

10
  ITU, 2017, accessed 27 April 2020, .
11
  mmWaves span 30 GHz to 300 GHz (that is, a wavelength of 1 cm to 1 mm), however, in the current 5G
context, mmWave bands in consideration span from around 24 GHz up to 86 GHz.

                                                                                   acma       |    23
In addition to considering the use of ‘new’ frequency bands (bands previously unused
for wireless broadband), we expect that many of the bands already available for
broadband in Australia will be re-farmed over time by incumbent users for 5G
technologies.

The existing technical frameworks provide flexibility to allow licensees to re-use
spectrum and adopt new technologies. However, where appropriate, the ACMA will
revise existing technical frameworks to ensure they are suitable for 5G—this work
commenced in the 2019–20 period and will continue into 2020–21. Of course, this has
to be balanced with the need to manage interference with other licensed services.

The ACMA acknowledges the importance of addressing the 5G spectrum needs and is
committed to ensuring that Australia is well placed to take advantage of the
opportunities offered by 5G, consistent with the government’s 5G strategy.12 The
ACMA continues to implement arrangements to support the rollout of 5G services in
Australia, across a number of bands.

Each of the broad bands identified for wireless broadband (sub 1 GHz, 1–6 GHz,
above 6 GHz) requires a specific approach by the ACMA. This is because different
considerations apply, such as intrinsic features of the band—for example, propagation
characteristics, as well as international regulations and standards, domestic policy,
legacy planning and allocation arrangements, and other incumbency factors.

Low-band spectrum
In the bands below 1 GHz, the ACMA has two primary short-to-medium-term
objectives:
> working with industry to optimise the efficient configuration of the existing 850 MHz
  (825–845 MHz and 870–890 MHz) and 900 MHz (890–915 MHz and 935–960
  MHz) band allocations, already licensed for mobile broadband purposes, including
  by securing a 1 MHz downshift of the existing 850 MHz spectrum licences
> implementing the existing planning decision to make additional spectrum available
  for mobile broadband in the 850 MHz expansion band (809–824 MHz and 854–869
  MHz).

Mid-band spectrum
The mid-band between 1 and 6 GHz is currently the focus of near-term 5G
deployments. In Australia, the 3400–3700 MHz band has been made available for this
use.

The ACMA also sees a major opportunity for efficiency gains through the
defragmentation of the current 3400–3575 MHz frequency range. Work is underway to
implement this, which will require both industry commitment and ACMA assistance to
achieve. As well as the 1.5 GHz band (1427–1518 MHz), there are several other
potential areas of investigation in the mid-bands. Some stakeholders have indicated
interest in planning for private LTE networks in mid-band spectrum, such as 1.5 GHz.

Spectrum in the 3700–4200 MHz band has been the subject of considerable interest
internationally as well as domestically from large mobile network operators (MNOs)
and FWA operators (such as WISPs), with several processes underway considering
arrangements in the band. The ACMA is paying close attention to the global
environment in this band and has released an options paper to review planning
arrangements in the 3700–4200 MHz band, which is discussed in Part 2.

12
  Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communications, 2017, accessed 27
April 2020, .

24   |    acma
In addition to the planning and allocation activities currently underway, the ACMA
continues to monitor several other bands for possible replanning for 5G wireless
broadband services. The bands are identified in the Monitoring section of Part 2 (see
Bands being studied under WRC-23 agenda item 1.2 and Bands being studied under
WRC-23 agenda item 1.4).

High-band spectrum
The ACMA’s consideration of high-band spectrum for wireless broadband is focused
on the mmWave in the bands above 24 GHz. The ACMA is developing arrangements
for fixed and mobile wireless broadband in the 26 and 28 GHz bands.

The ACMA will also continue to monitor the following bands that were identified for
IMT at WRC-19—40 GHz, 46 GHz (mainly in Region 1 countries) and 47 GHz. Of
these, the 40 GHz and 47 GHz bands are the most mature in terms of standardisation
and equipment availability.

The ACMA acknowledges that the 40 GHz and 47 GHz bands are of significant
interest for both terrestrial 5G and satellite broadband services—the United States
(US), for example, has established arrangements supporting both services. The ACMA
will consider global trends and local circumstances, including domestic and
international take-up of mmWave 5G services, in determining whether replanning for
possible 5G in the 40 and 47 GHz bands is appropriate. The ACMA notes that the best
spectrum management outcomes are likely to be achieved when both bands are
considered simultaneously.

Private/industry vertical networks
Private or integrated networks are expected to become more popular with the
increased availability of long-term evolution (LTE) advanced pro and 5G technologies.
SNS Telecom & IT13:
> observes that the private LTE network submarket is well-established with
  operational deployments across multiple segments of the critical communications
  and industrial IoT industries, as well as enterprise buildings, campuses and public
  venues
> expects private networks to continue their upward trajectory beyond 2020, with a
  spate of ongoing and planned network rollouts—from nationwide public safety
  broadband networks to various usage scenarios
> identifies several key challenges including the smaller cell sizes when compared
  with legacy networks (for example, Land Mobile Radio (LMR) systems), funding
  uncertainties, competing technologies and evolving standards environment
> made a pre-COVID-19 projection that private network revenues for the Asia–Pacific
  would reach $12.2 billion in revenues by 2030.

Other industries where standalone networks have been used include manufacturing,
transportation, airports, utilities, primary industries, and stadiums. Ericsson identifies
the two main drivers for growth in private networks as the need for modernising land

13
  SNS Telecom & IT, The Private LTE & 5G Network Ecosystem: 2020 – 2030 – Opportunities, Challenges,
Strategies, Industry Verticals & Forecasts: Regional forecasts, report, 20 October 2019, pp. 53, 96–99; and
SNS Telecom & IT, The Private LTE & 5G Network Ecosystem: 2020 – 2030 – Opportunities, Challenges,
Strategies, Industry Verticals & Forecasts: Regional forecasts, spreadsheet, 20 October 2019.

                                                                                       acma        |    25
mobile radio systems (for example, taxis, trains, ambulances) and industry
digitalisation.14

Presently, several network deployment models are in use by industry operators:
1. Using their own equipment and class licensed spectrum to operate.
2. Using their own equipment and spectrum to run their own network (for example,
   public safety).
3. Having a private network built and designed by a third party (for example, a
   telecommunications company or network design business) with equipment
   sourced from vendors (for example, base stations and core network), which is
   separate to other mobile networks (for example, mining companies).

Machine-to-machine communications and the Internet of Things
A key element in several private networks to enable automated processes (for
example, factories) is machine-to-machine (M2M) communications15 and IoT.16

The IoT also involves unprecedented numbers of wireless and wired interconnections
of personal, consumer and industrial devices supporting a range of applications. Ovum
forecasts that the number of M2M subscriptions associated with Australian mobile
network operators will increase from 4.3 million in 2019 to 5.4 million in 2024.17

IoT is not limited to any specific technology platform and is likely to use frequency
allocations across the entire spectrum. For example, 4G and 5G standards have
made—or are in the process of making—specific provisions for dedicated IoT service
delivery, and dedicated terrestrial IoT technologies have been developed and
deployed that usually utilise class-licensed bands.

Devices providing industrial metering, switching and/or control (including smart
infrastructure) are a subset of IoT communications technologies that have seen
substantial deployments in recent years. They require very low data rates and/or very
low duty cycles and operate in low-power wide-area (LPWA) networks.18 An
international market has emerged for LPWA networks and devices that operate in the
900 MHz band.

In Australia, mobile network operators have positioned themselves in the Australian
market to offer IoT and M2M services to customers. MNOs have been deploying IoT-
specific variants of the 4G standard, such as Narrowband IoT and Category M1,
commonly known as Cat-M1. In both cases services are, or are expected to be, largely
deployed using existing spectrum management frameworks and established bands.

Given the unique capabilities of satellite systems, for example in terms of coverage,
multiple companies are delivering or pursuing new space-based IoT services—in
some cases enabled through new small satellite technology. Some of these services
are being pursued or delivered within established satellite bands in the existing

14
   Ericsson, 2019, accessed 27 April 2020, , p. 19.
15
   M2M communications are used for automated data transmission and measurement between
mechanical or electronic devices using wired and wireless networks. Much of the M2M
information is delivered in the form of sparse data, which can come from sensors and other
non-IT devices.
16
   The interconnection of many devices and objects utilising internet protocols, with or without the
active involvement of individuals. This may include laptops, routers, tablets and smartphones,
which are integral to operating, reading and analysing the state of IoT devices.
17
   Ovum, Ovum Forecaster Service, subscriber-only database, Mobile connectivity – M2M subscriptions,
accessed 13 February 2020.
18
   IoT Alliance Australia, 2018, accessed 27 April 2020, .

26   |    acma
regulatory framework. However, in some cases, enabling satellite IoT may require
specific changes to the regulatory regime.

Table 9:   Bands listed in the LIPD class licence that currently support IoT
           services

Frequency band (MHz)       Description
472.0125–472.1125          Telecommand or telemetry transmitters (max power 100 mW EIRP)
0.07–0.119                 Telecommand or telemetry transmitters (max power 10 mW EIRP)
 0.135–0.160               Telecommand or telemetry transmitters (max power 10 mW EIRP)
0.119–0.135                Telecommand or telemetry transmitters (max power 1.5 W EIRP)
0.160–0.190                Telecommand or telemetry transmitters (see details for limitations)
2400–2450                  Telecommand or telemetry transmitters (max power 1 W EIRP)
5725–5795                  Telecommand or telemetry transmitters (max power 1 W EIRP)
5815–5875                  Telecommand or telemetry transmitters (max power 1 W EIRP)
5795–5815                  Telecommand or telemetry transmitters (max power 2 W EIRP)
915–928                    Frequency hopping transmitters (max power 1 W EIRP)
2400–2483.5                Frequency hopping transmitters (max power 500 mW EIRP)
2400–2483.5                Frequency hopping transmitters (max power 4 W EIRP)
5725–5850                  Frequency hopping transmitters (max power 4 W EIRP)
915–928                    Digital modulation transmitters (max power 1 W EIRP)
2400–2483.5                Digital modulation transmitters (max power 4 W EIRP)
5725–5850                  Digital modulation transmitters (max power 4 W EIRP)
5150–5250                  Radio local area network transmitters (max power 200 mW EIRP)
5250–5350                  Radio local area network transmitters (max power 200 mW EIRP)
5470–5600                  Radio local area network transmitters (max power 1 W EIRP)
5650–5725                  Radio local area network transmitters (max power 1 W EIRP)
59000–63000                Data communication transmitters outdoors (max power 150 W EIRP)
57000–71000                Data communication transmitters indoors (max power 20 W EIRP)

                                                                      acma      |   27
Broadcasting services
Broadcasting services are delivered using radiocommunications spectrum, including
AM and FM frequencies (for radio), UHF and satellite frequencies (for television) and
other parts of the spectrum deliver broadcasting services (using mobile broadband and
other wireless delivery systems).

Commercial radio broadcasting
The commercial radio sector comprises an extensive infrastructure base of AM and
FM transmitters servicing metropolitan, regional and remote communities via 613
transmitters—125 AM and 488 FM. In recent times, AM–FM conversions have been
completed in 19 single-licensee markets.

Commercial digital radio is also delivered via a network of shared DAB+ digital radio
multiplex transmitters in each capital city, as well as in Mandurah, Western Australia.
DAB+ uses spectrum in VHF television Band III.

National broadcasting
The ABC and SBS operate an extensive high-power network of AM and FM
transmitters, which covers metropolitan, regional and remote areas. 19 SBS delivers
most of its regional services through retransmissions licensed by third parties such as
local councils.20 The ABC and SBS share DAB+ digital transmitters in all capital cities.

Compared with commercial radio, the national broadcasters’ radio services face
different conditions on coverage and often have different coverage areas. While
commercial and community services are restricted to their geographic licence areas in
a way that national broadcasting services and radio streaming services are not,
licence areas assist in delivering relevant local content and services to local
communities. As they are restricted only by power, high-powered national AM services
may serve much larger areas than commercial radio broadcasting services. The ABC’s
highest power regional AM services provide unique and critical wide-area coverage to
regional listeners, including listeners in cars outside of populated areas.

Community radio broadcasting
The community radio sector is diverse, providing local, community and niche services
mainly via FM to metropolitan and regional audiences. Indigenous broadcasting
transmissions serve remote communities as well as many regional and urban areas. In
the capital cities, there are wide-area community services, as well as more localised
services covering sub-metropolitan regions of each city.

The community sector transmits through 415 transmitters, with 13 delivering AM
services and 402 delivering FM services. A further 133 FM transmitters and 1 AM
transmitter is used for temporary community broadcasting.

Economic pressures
The television and radio broadcasting environment is under pressure. Ongoing
technology developments and changing audience preferences are affecting future
demand for spectrum. The environment for commercial broadcasters in TV and radio
has seen a marked decline of advertising revenues, which is likely to constrain the
capacity for future network investment.

19
   The ABC’s services are delivered via 707 radio transmitters, 110 providing AM services and 597 providing
FM services.
20
   Retransmission services do no more than retransmit programs that are transmitted by a national,
commercial or community broadcasting service.

28   |     acma
Free TV has reported a decline in industry revenue of 9.2 per cent over 2013–18 from
$3.88 billion to $3.52 billion. The commercial radio industry experienced a drop of 6.1
per cent in metropolitan advertising revenue ($760.899 million) for the 2019 calendar
year, with revenue down 9.4 per cent in the December quarter from the same period in
2018.21 In the quarter to March 2020, metropolitan radio advertising revenue was
down 12.3 per cent on the same period last year.22

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a further impact on commercial radio
advertising revenue. In April 2020, several radio networks announced cost cutting
measures.23 Similarly, commercial television has been affected by a decline in
advertising revenue and disruption to content availability due to the shutdown of
television production and suspension of major sporting events. Citing these factors, in
March 2020, Nine Entertainment and Seven West Media each withdrew their profit
guidance for the financial year.24

In April 2020, in response to representations from a number of affected commercial
broadcasters seeking relief from transmitter licence taxes due to the impacts of the
COVID-19 pandemic, the government made rules that provided a 100 per cent rebate
of the commercial broadcasting tax for the 12 months beginning 14 February 2020 and
ending 13 February 2021.25 This is discussed further in the Pricing section.

Spectrum demand
Changing spectrum requirements are needed to support the ongoing evolution of
broadcasting services and their audiences. Evolving digital transmission technology
and changes in viewer and listener behaviour are altering the modes of delivery and
consequently changing the broadcasting demand for spectrum.

In recognition of the technological evolution occurring in broadcasting, we have
actively supported new technology trials, such as the DVB-T2 trials for television.

In radio, the work we have done with the radio industry through the Future delivery of
radio, has provided an ongoing transition path for the radio industry to evolve in
response to new technologies and changing audience preferences, with the
prioritisation of frequency planning arrangements designed to support radio
broadcasters in making the best choices about their future service delivery.

Our priorities outlined in the report include the continued transitioning of commercial,
community and national services in regional areas from AM to FM where spectrum is
readily available, arrangements to allow further rollout of digital radio where this is
feasible, coverage improvements for national, commercial and community
broadcasting where spectrum is available and support for trials of new types of
broadcasting technology.

21
   Commercial Radio Australia, 2020, accessed 27 April 2020,
.
22
   Commercial Radio Australia, 2020, accessed 27 April 2020,
 .
23
   Radio Today, 2020, accessed 27 April 2020, .
24
   Source: ASX Announcements from Seven West and Nine Entertainment.
25
   Federal Register of Legislation, 2020, accessed 27 April 2020,
.

                                                                                  acma       |    29
Satellite communications
Satellite communications are experiencing a significant period of technological
innovation, and disruption in the provision and delivery of communications and space-
based science services.

IBIS World estimates revenue for the industry at $5.6 billion in 2020, growing annually
at eight per cent over the past five years.26 Globally though, some satellite operators
are experiencing difficult financial conditions, that may constrain future network
expansion plans and demand for spectrum.

The Australian space industry is projected to grow at 7.4 per cent annually over the
next five years.27 The Australian Civil Space Strategy 2019–2028 sets a clear path to
take the space sector into the next decade and beyond.

Key market segments in Australia include:
> satellite communications (including broadband)
> pay television (for example, Singtel Optus and Foxtel); otherwise known as direct to
  home (DTH) services
> ground station infrastructure which enables uplink, supports launch activities,
  satellite operation and tracking systems
> global navigation satellite services (GNSS)
> space technology and manufacturing of high-tech components, nanosatellites,
  components
> other satellite services include space research.

Other new satellite business models, which are largely considered emerging (that is,
currently not generating significant revenues) but do not have significant operations in
Australia, include satellite servicing, platforms, space mining/resource utilisation,
situational awareness, in-space research and manufacturing. Low-earth-orbit (LEO)
satellites are also being trialled with the intention of using thousands of small satellites
to offer an alternative to fibre or towers in regional or rural areas. While trials have
commenced, there are currently no commercial services in Australia.

The development of lower-cost, miniaturised space hardware (often referred to as
nanosats, cubesats or smallsats) and reduced launch costs are supporting growth in
the diversity and capability of services delivered by satellite. In some cases, smallsats
are allowing commercial broadband business models and services requiring
constellations of satellites in non-geostationary orbit that were once cost prohibitive to
now be viable. Some proposed non-geostationary orbit broadband systems require the
deployment of very large numbers—for example, hundreds or thousands, of satellites.
2019–20 saw multiple launches of satellites supporting these constellations. This
changed environment has also increased the opportunity for academic and scientific
space missions, often of short duration.

Collectively, these environmental changes are driving several spectrum management
challenges. Many of these are being addressed, to some extent, on an international
basis given the nature of satellite systems. For example, for reasons of economy and
equipment availability, short duration smallsat missions often utilise systems operating

26
   IBISWorld, Shoot for the stars: Industry revenue lifts off as rising demand creates space for new firms,
IBISWorld Industry Report J5545, January 2020, p. 5.
27
   Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, 2019, accessed 24 March 2020,
, p. III.

30   |     acma
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