FINLAND SUPPLEMENT TO THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 - Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Finland

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FINLAND SUPPLEMENT TO THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 - Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Finland
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FINLAND SUPPLEMENT TO THE
TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021
Annual Survey of Jobs,
Trade and Investment between
the United States and Finland

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FINLAND SUPPLEMENT TO THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 - Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Finland
TABLE OF CONTENTS
    INTRODUCTION
        Greetings from Amcham Finland3
        Greetings from U.S. Embassy Finland4
        Greetings from Ministry for Foreign Affairs Finland5

    ANALYSIS
        Economic Relationship between the U.S. and Finland6

    READER'S DIGEST
        Reader’s Digest: The Finnish-American Reader’s Digest
        to THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 Report9

    ECONOMIC FORECAST
        Economic Forecast for the U.S.11
        Economic Forecast for Finland12

    OVERVIEW
        Finland and The United States13

    LAUNCHPAD USA
        Launchpad USA14

    OPPORTUNITIES
        Opportunities for U.S.-Finland Cooperation & Business15

2
FINLAND SUPPLEMENT TO THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 - Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Finland
INTRODUCTION

                                      GREETINGS FROM
                                      AMCHAM FINLAND
                                          Alexandra Pasternak-Jackson, CEO

The transatlantic economy remains the largest and wealthiest in the world, not just in terms of trade and investment,
but also when it comes to data flows, digital content, and a burgeoning digital economy. In a time of unrelenting
change, frequent disruption, and uncertainty, the deep relationships between the U.S. and the EU and the U.S.
and Finland remains firm. We are each other’s most important commercial partners when it comes to services,
trade, and investment. We share the key common values of democracy, rule of law, human rights, and a shared
commitment to be a force of good towards a better future for our children and the generations after us. We are
at a pivotal point in history, and promoting a positive and constructive transatlantic economy is our key to mutual
growth and competitiveness.

To highlight the importance of the economic relationship between the U.S. and Europe, Amcham Finland has co-
sponsored the Transatlantic Economy Report, written by Joseph P. Quinlan and Dan Hamilton of SAIS at John
Hopkins, and produced by AmCham EU and the U.S. Chamber, in cooperation with AmChams from Finland,
Sweden, Ireland, Denmark, and Slovenia.
For the first time ever, we offer the Finland Supplement to the Transatlantic Economy Report. We see U.S.-Finnish
Economic analysis by Juho Kostiainen, Senior Analyst from Nordea, as well as insights from Wall Street economist
Joseph P. Quinlan, a reader’s guide to the Transatlantic Economy Report, and more. There are tremendous
opportunities for growth, innovation, and positive impact on both sides of the Atlantic.

In these pages you will note the huge market potential for growing together towards an even stronger and more
intertwined economic and investment relationship between Finland and the U.S.

To be a part of the transatlantic community, indeed to be part of the Amcham Finland community, is to work
together towards a brighter future, to really believe that we are more than the sum of our parts. Together, we
will always be more innovative, create more value for society, and be more inclusive than we would be apart.
The strength of transatlantic ties is in innovation, human capital, technology, trade and investment, and in our
willingness to push forward with optimism and grit. We hope you enjoy this first ever Finland supplement to the
Transatlantic Economy Report and look forward to working with our members and stakeholders to help business
grow, add jobs to our economies, and deepen the economic relationship between the U.S. and Finland.

                                                     Sincerely,

                                           Alexandra Pasternak-Jackson
                                                      CEO
                                                 Amcham Finland

                                                                                                                        3
FINLAND SUPPLEMENT TO THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 - Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Finland
INTRODUCTION

                                           GREETINGS FROM
                                        U.S. EMBASSY FINLAND
                                            Ian Campbell, Chargé d'Affaires ad interim

      Transatlantic Business Leaders, Greetings.

      Congratulations on the publication of the first ever Finland Supplement to The Transatlantic Economy Report.

      For generations the transatlantic relationship has served as the cornerstone of our collective security and
      prosperity, and as a solid foundation for partnering to face global challenges. Today, we reaffirm the importance
      of the transatlantic relationship and our commitment to working in partnership to face the challenges of our time,
      from confronting the ravages of a global pandemic, to mitigating the effects of climate change, to advancing the
      digital economy and adapting to the ever-increasing complexity of the economic landscape, to ensuring supply
      chains are served by ethical and trusted vendors who are dedicated to a rules-based international economic
      system.

      Each year The Transatlantic Economy Report shows how vital the transatlantic economy is in terms of global
      economic activity. This year, the Finland Supplement reveals the power of the Finnish-U.S. economic relationship.
      While the data alone is impressive, the stories behind (and even beyond) the data are even more compelling
      and inspirational – when Finnish and American businesses work together, they create solutions that go global.
      Whether in information technology or new energy solutions or any number of other advanced knowledge-based
      industries, Finnish and American business leaders are partners at the cutting edge of the innovation economy for
      global growth.

      We are delighted by the publication of the first ever Finland Supplement to the Transatlantic Economy Report.
      And we are looking forward to working with Amcham Finland and our Finnish and American businesses as we get
      better at telling our story, and as we bring the value of our partnership into sharper and clearer focus in the years
      to come.

                                                          Best regards,

                                                         Ian Campbell
                                                   Chargé d'Affaires ad interim

4
FINLAND SUPPLEMENT TO THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 - Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Finland
GREETINGS FROM
             MINISTRY FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS FINLAND
                                                    Ville Skinnari,
                               Minister for Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade

I would like to thank Amcham Finland for producing this first of its kind Finland supplement to the annual
Transatlantic Economy Report. It is a comprehensive package that gives essential information about jobs, trade
and investments between the United States and Finland. It also makes a convincing case for stronger cooperation
between Finnish and American businesses in many important sectors.

The United States is a key trade and investment partner for Finland and our largest trading partner outside the
European Union. As the world’s largest economy, the U.S offers huge market potential and virtually unlimited
opportunities for Finnish businesses, and as a highly innovative and open economy, Finland is well equipped for
these markets.

Together, Finland and the United States lead key areas of technological innovation and environmentally friendly
solutions. Finland offers advanced solutions in bio- and circular economy and clean technologies, 5G/6G
technologies, ship-building and in the marine industry, such as autonomous vessels and ice breakers. We are
global leaders in meteorological science and weather technology, mapping changing conditions in the Arctic and
elsewhere.

Cooperating successfully with Michigan and Maine in green technologies is a tangible example of the potential for
a bright future when Finland and the U.S. work together. Finnish companies are at the forefront of technological
innovation, offer secure and reliable networks, and are therefore natural partners for the United States. We are keen
to develop research cooperation with U.S universities and institutions as well as joint projects in third countries.

Finally, I would like to point out that Finland is an extremely attractive place to invest and do business. We have
an open, dynamic market economy with a highly skilled workforce and good infrastructure, and we have a strong
entrepreneurial spirit. Finland already has deep cooperation with the United States in each of these fields, and we
look forward to strengthening our relationship in these and other sectors in the future.

                                                   Best regards,

                                                 Ville Skinnari
                            Minister for Development Cooperation and Foreign Trade

                                                                                                                        5
FINLAND SUPPLEMENT TO THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 - Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Finland
ANALYSIS

                            ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
                                 THE U.S. AND FINLAND
                                                       Juho Kostiainen
                                               Economist, Senior Analyst, Nordea

     Introduction

     The global pandemic has shaken the world during the         opportunities for Finnish companies. Hybrid cars and
     past year. The negative consequences have also hit          biofuels are already exported from Finland to the
     global trade, which declined 5% in 2020.                    U.S. The traditional forest industry is also increasingly
                                                                 leaning towards environmentally-friendly products,
     However, trade between the U.S. and Finland has fared
                                                                 substituting fossil-based fuels and materials with wood-
     well. Finnish exports to the U.S. increased by 13% in
                                                                 based products.
     2020, despite the 11% decrease in Finland’s total exports
     value for the year. The U.S. was the second-largest         Advanced technology is something that Finland and
     trading partner for Finland in 2020 – almost on a par       the U.S. have in common. The U.S. tech giants provide
     with Sweden. Export growth to the U.S. was driven by        services and technology to Finnish customers and
     services, which grew 34% year-on-year, while exports of     companies, and Finland produces niche products for
     goods increased by just 1%. This development highlights     the U.S. market. The frontrunners are medical devices,
     the underlying trend in Finnish exports, with services      machinery and IT devices. This includes 5G networks
     already accounting for one-third of total exports.          and maritime-industry solutions.

                                                           Competition in technology is furious and China is
     The change in the U.S. political landscape has improved
     the outlook for transatlantic co-operation. The new   challenging western countries at this game. Transatlantic
     Biden administration has a more friendly attitude     co-operation between companies and researchers
     towards Europe, easing fears of new trade tariffs. Theshould be further fostered to speed up innovation and
     global fight against climate change – embraced by the the transition to new technologies. The diffusion of
     new U.S. administration – could provide good business technology can improve productivity in both importing
                                                           and exporting countries.
     Figure 1. Finland's exports by country, 2019 and 2020						                                   (EUR, bn)

                Sweden

          United States

               Germany

           Netherlands

                    China

        United Kingdom

                 Russia

                            0           2             4              6              8             10             12

                                                          2019   2020
     Sources: Statistics Finland and Nordea
6
FINLAND SUPPLEMENT TO THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 - Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Finland
Service trade

Trade in services between Finland and the U.S. has increased significantly in recent years. In 2020, Finland exported
services worth EUR 4.6 billion to the U.S., despite two weak quarters in the middle of the year. Exports of services
to the U.S. have almost trebled since 2013. In 2020, the U.S. was the most important service export country for
Finland, accounting for 18% of Finland’s total exports of services. ICT services are in the leading position, followed
by fees for the use of intellectual property. Imported services from the U.S.to Finland were worth EUR 2.5 billion in
2020. Business services represent the largest services import item from the U.S. to Finland. It should be noted that
some U.S. companies use European subsidiaries, especially in Ireland, and hence do not show in U.S. bilateral trade
statistics. Imports of services from Ireland to Finland totaled almost EUR 2 billion in 2020, a figure that mostly
represents trade with U.S. companies based in Ireland.

The digital economy is growing fast and has made service exports one of the high-productivity sectors. The U.S.
market provides Finnish service suppliers with substantial opportunity to follow the leading example of the IT
sector and the gaming industry. On the other hand, Finland can provide good infrastructure and highly-skilled
labor to U.S. tech giants looking to expand their European operations.

Figure 2. Finland's foreign trade, exports to the U.S.						                                            (EUR, bn.)
    6                                                                                                    5,5
                                                                                           5,5

     5                                                          4,6            4,7                               4,6
                                                 4,3
                       4,0          4,1
    4     3,8
                                                                                                 3,4
                                                                                     3,0
     3                                                 2,7
                                          2,5                           2,5
                             2,0
     2          1,6

     1

    0
            2013         2014         2015         2016            2017         2018        2019           2020

                                                   Goods      Services
Sources: Statistics Finland and Nordea

Goods trade                                       Figure 3. Share of goods exports from Finland to the U.S.            (%)
The U.S. is also one of Finland’s main goods
                                                                                                       Ships
trading partners, with a 9% share of Finland’s                  Other                                  20 %
total goods exports. In 2020, total exports of                  23 %
goods from Finland stood at EUR 5.6 billion.
The largest category is that of ships, making
up 20% of total exports. This is followed by      Pharmaceutical
medical and optical devices, with an export            3%
share of 18%. Transport equipment, mainly
                                                   Mineral Fuels                                             Optical,
passenger cars, also represent a big export            4%                                                   Measuring,
item to the U.S., although they are not always                                                               Medical
counted correctly in trade statistics as they         Electrical                                           Instruments
                                                    Machinery and                                              18 %
are exported through a third country. Goods          Equipment
imports from the U.S. are less significant for           6%
Finland, with a value of around EUR 2 billion                                                    Machinery and
                                                             Paper, Articles                      Mechanical
in 2020.                                                     of Paper Pulp                        Appliances

         €5.5
                                                                  12 %                               14 %

                    bn                            Sources: Finnish Custom and Nordea
         total exports of goods from
         Finland to the U.S. in 2020
                                                                                                                             7
ANALYSIS

     Foreign direct investment

     Foreign direct investment is a significant driver of Finland’s GDP. Foreign-owned multinationals produced close
     to one-quarter of total added-value on the Finnish market in 2018. Much of that investment is in service-based
     activities, as 59% of added-value generated by foreign-owned multinationals was from services industries. This
     was followed by heavy industry, which accounted for one-third of total foreign direct investment.

     After Sweden, the U.S. is the second-largest source of foreign direct investment in Finland, according to the balance
     of payments statistics. U.S.-owned enterprises produced most of their added-value in the ICT industry. Almost
     two-thirds of output from U.S. firms in the ICT industry is exported. The U.S. also undertakes significant foreign
     direct investments in wholesale trade and the chemicals industry. In 2019, total investments from Finland to the U.S.
     were USD 14,8 billion according to statistics from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

     Figure 4. Foreign Direct Investments Position						(USD, bn.)

             15,0

               12,5
                                            Finnish FDIs to the U.S.          U.S. FDIs to Finland
             10,0

               7,5

               5,0

               2,5

               0,0

     Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Nordea

     Jobs

     The Finnish labor market has changed dramatically in the past decades, with many manufacturing jobs disappearing
     as in the U.S. A significant portion of recent years’ job growth has been in domestically-orientated activities, such
     as health and social care, but also through growth in firms exporting IT and information services. In fact, average
     annual employment growth in firms exporting services amounted to more than 15% in nominal terms between
     2008 and 2016.

     Foreign companies are big contributors to the Finnish economy. In 2019, some 279,000 people in Finland (18% of
     the Finnish workforce) worked in foreign-owned enterprises. U.S. companies employed 21,228 people in Finland
     and generated annual turnover of EUR 13 billion. Finnish companies employed 36,283 people in North America,
     with annual turnover of EUR 26 billion.

     In 2016, about 35% of the Finnish labor force was classified as high-skilled and 53% as medium-skilled. This is
     relevant as export-oriented firms and multinationals hire more high-skilled workers.

     Conclusions

     The U.S. is one of Finland’s key trading partners in goods and services, as well as for direct investment. The Biden
     administration’s agenda is likely to strengthen the relationship further. The U.S. economy is forecast to recover
     faster than Europe from the Covid-19 shock, which makes transatlantic trade opportunities even more attractive
     to Finnish companies. Finland’s stable society, well-educated labor force and access to the EU single market can
     provide U.S. companies with an attractive environment for their production or R&D activities.

      Sources: Official Statistics of Finland: Foreign subsidiaries in Finland [online publication]. ISSN = 1797-9552. 2019, Appendix
      table 1. Foreign subsidiaries by country 2019. Helsinki: Statistics Finland.
      The Transatlantic Economy 2020: Annual survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Europe. Daniel
      S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan. Amcham EU.
      Suomen ja Yhdysvaltojen Väliset Taloussuhteet. 2009. Markku Kotilainen, Viööe Kaitila, Nuuti Nikula, and Paavo Suni. Etla.
      Globalisation in Finland: Granular Insights into the Impact on Businesses and Employment. 2020. OECD and Statistics Finland.
8
READER'S
                                                                                                                           DIGEST

                      READER’S DIGEST:
          THE FINNISH-AMERICAN READER’S DIGEST TO
          THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021 REPORT
These insights for U.S. and Finnish audiences are taken directly from The Transatlantic Economy Report 2021: Annual Survey
    of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Europe by Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan.

The year ahead will be a time to heal. Despite the                            China
                                                                             $10,262
headwinds and uncertainties brought on by the Covid-19
pandemic, many factors point to continued economic
recovery through 2021. There is also an expectation that
European companies operating in the United States will
enjoy more favorable conditions in the year ahead.1                    EU avg. Germany    Finland   Netherlands   Switzerland
                                                                      ~$35,000 $46,445    $48,783     $52,331      $81,994
With mass vaccination drives taking place on both                  Per capita income compared to China11
sides of the Atlantic, consumer spending is expected
                                                                   Globally, renewable energy is emerging as a key sector
to come back with a vengeance.2 In April 2020, the U.S.
                                                                   and is of growing interest for sustainable investing.11
savings rate reached its highest level on record, at 34%
                                                                   Largely unnoticed by the media and politicians, U.S.
of disposable personal income. On aggregate, personal
                                                                   companies in Europe have become a driving force
income increased by USD 1.2 trillion, or 6.3%, in 2020 –
                                                                   for Europe’s green revolution, especially through the
the highest rate of increase in 15 years. High savings and
                                                                   addition of wind and solar capacity on the continent.12
rising incomes have led to a quick recovery in consumer
                                                                   Since 2007, U.S. companies have been responsible
spending, especially in durable goods.3 More spending
                                                                   for more than half of the long-term renewable energy
means more transatlantic trade in 2021.4
                                                                   agreements in Europe.13 In fact, Europe and the United
Despite the pandemic, Austria, Denmark, Finland, and               States accounted for over 80% of all green bonds issued
France saw their investment income in the United States            in 2020 and 78% of all sustainable debt issuance.14
increase in the first nine months of 2020, compared to             The government of Finland plans to devote Finland's
the same period in 2019.5                                          share of a nearly three-billion-euro EU Recovery and
                                                                   Resilience Facility towards helping the country pursue
Disruption drives acceleration
                                                                   a "green transition" away from a reliance on fossil fuels,
The pandemic and its ripple effects generated                      while one-quarter of the funding will be used towards
disruptions across both China-centric and transatlantic            digitalization. This, along with the Biden administration’s
supply chains.6 The Transatlantic Economy Report                   re-entry to the Paris agreement and its other
2021 shows how the ties that bind the EU to the United             sustainability commitments, will bring many business
States are much thicker and far deeper than those that             opportunities for both Finnish and U.S. companies alike.
bind either to China.7 Investing in Europe or the United
                                                                   Analysts estimate that the Covid-19 crisis has
States is relatively easy, while investing in China remains
                                                                   accelerated the adoption of a wide range of digital
difficult. This is due to restrictions on foreign ownership
                                                                   technologies by at least two years.15 Between 2020 and
and rules around forced technology transfer, as well as
                                                                   2023, companies are expected to spend USD 6.8 trillion
heavily subsidized competition from state-owned and
                                                                   on digital transformation. By the end of 2021, 60% of
state-controlled Chinese companies.8
                                                                   global GDP will be digitized.16 The pandemic has also
In addition to being one of the largest economic blocs             been a major accelerant of med-tech research.17 Digital
in the world, Europe is also wealthy. This means the bloc          tools powered the unprecedented global sharing of
enjoys an abundance of skilled labor, world class R&D              gene sequencing data to track and treat SARS-CoV-2,
infrastructure, and rising per capita incomes.9 Finland’s          the virus that causes the Covid-19 disease.18
competitive strengths include strong protection
of property rights, macroeconomic stability and
transparent institutions.10

            DID YOU KNOW?                                                           DOWNLOAD
      ?       In 2019, Finland was a top European Import                             The Transatlantic Economy Report 2021:
              Market for both Alaska (ranked 3rd) and                                Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment
              Maryland (ranked 5th), providing $26 million                           between the United States and Europe
              and $666 million in imports respectively.

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Advances in life sciences and digital services

                  40 %                                                  Transatlantic digital connections are illustrated through
                                                                        cross-border data flows. These exchanges contribute
                         By 2025, 40% of the global                     more to global growth than global trade in goods,
                         economy will be in health.                     underpinning and enabling virtually every other kind of
                                                                        cross-border flow.26 While data flows are commercially
     By 2025, the health sector will account for 40% of the             significant, their volume and commercial value are in
     global economy – the largest share held by any sector              constant flux and thus difficult to measure.27 The United
     or industry. This explosion of genetic and health data             States is a major hub for international trade in products
     holds significant potential for scientific and medical             delivered through data flows. Transatlantic flows of data
     achievements worldwide. Telemedicine, telepresence                 have traditionally been the fastest and largest in the
     and telesurgery are transforming medical techniques                world, but this dominance is waning. Data flows are now
     and generating greater cross-border trade in healthcare            more globally distributed, and companies are facing
     services.19 Finland ranks 7th in the Global Innovation             significant and growing legal uncertainty in transferring
     Index 202020, an indication of the country’s vast potential        personal information out of the European Union.28
     to foster innovative solutions in the life-science sector.
                                                                        The European Commission has advanced major
     American life-science companies operating in Finland
                                                                        initiatives through its Digital Services Act and Digital
     appreciate the country’s agility and its potential as a
                                                                        Markets Act that could create additional complications
     testbed.
                                                                        for U.S. investors and the new U.S. administration alike.29
     In 2019, the United States registered a USD 219.9 billion          The success of U.S.-EU digital markets rest on successful
     surplus in trading digitally-enabled services with the             cooperation around such issues. Transatlantic business
     rest of the world. Its main commercial partner was                 sees potential for U.S.-Finnish collaboration on all digital
     Europe, to which the U.S. exported more than USD 245               transformations that impact the transatlantic economy.
     billion in digitally-enabled services, and from which it
                                                                        Partners in innovation and growth
     imported an estimated USD 133 billion. This generated a
     trade surplus with Europe of more than USD 112 billion.21          Given all of the above, Europe remains a key destination
                                                                        for U.S. companies looking to expand their global
     Finland and the United States ranked 6th and 8th
                                                                        footprint. The region is large, wealthy, richly-endowed,
     respectively in the 2020 Network Readiness Index.22
                                                                        open for business, and an innovation leader in many
     The 2020 Network Readiness Index ranks a total of                  key global industries.30 Meanwhile, transparent
     134 economies based on their performance across                    rule of law, sophisticated accounting, auditing, and
     60 variables. The index measures how prepared                      reporting standards, secure access to credit, ease of
     countries are to leverage the opportunities offered                entrepreneurship, and respect for intellectual property
     by technological innovation.23 Finland and the United              rights have all contributed to the stable and supportive
     States are both in the top ten performing countries in             business environment in the United States. European
     the world, with huge potential for business growth.                firms maintained their dominant foreign investment
                                                                        position in the United States in 2020.31
     Demand for international bandwidth is doubling every
     two years. All the stay-at-home activity driven by the             Finland’s competitive strengths and stable business
     pandemic boosted average international internet traffic            environment encompass many of the characteristics
     by 48% in 2020.24 By the end of 2021, cross-border                 that U.S. companies value. By increasing its attention to
     bandwidth is projected to be 400 times the level it was            the areas outlined in this Reader’s Digest and the report
     in 2005. Global Internet Protocol (IP) traffic, a proxy for        in full, Finland has tremendous potential to grow its
     data flows, is projected to reach 150,700 gigabytes per            share of transatlantic trade, and the U.S. has a reliable
     second. This is more than triple the level of three years ago.25   and advanced partner in Finland.
     Table 2. Finland and the U.S. in Global Business Rankings

                                                                                                     Finland            U.S.
      Measure                                                                        Year
                                                                                                     Ranking          Ranking
      World Bank Ease of Doing Business                                              2020           20 of 190         6 of 190
      World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index                              2019            11 of 141         2 of 141
      Forbes Best Countries for Business                                             2019            13 of 161        17 of 141
      Bloomberg Innovation Index                                                     2020            7 of 131          9 of 131
      Brand Finance Most Valuable Nation Brands                                      2018           36 of 100          1 of 100
      IMD World Talent Ranking                                                       2020            12 of 63          15 of 63
     Sources: World Bank, World Economic Forum, Forbes, Bloomberg, Brand Finance, IMD
10
     19.
         Page 44 22Page 45 25.Page 54 28.Page 54 31.Page 61
     20.
         Page 81 23.Page 45 26Page 54 29.Page 9
     21.
        Page 46 24Page 56 27.Page 55 30.Page 83
ECONOMIC
                                                                                                                                                            FORECAST

                                                    ECONOMIC FORECAST
                                                       FOR THE U.S.
                                                                    Joseph P. Quinlan
                                                    Senior Fellow, Transatlantic Leadership Network

The U.S. economy declined by 3.5% in 2020, but steadily                                 distributed on both sides of the ocean and services
gained momentum in the second half of the year, and                                     activities rebound from the depths of recession.
is expected to expand by 5.1% this year, according to
                                                                                        All of the above is another way of saying that the U.S.
estimates from the IMF. The U.S. economy will again
                                                                                        economy, while exhibiting signs of resiliency, confronts
outperform Europe this year, but there are plenty of
                                                                                        plenty of cyclical and structural challenges, in addition to
soft spots in the United States, ranging from weak
                                                                                        the herculean task of distributing vaccines to hundreds
retail demand to a battered travel and leisure industry.
                                                                                        of millions of Americans.
While manufacturing activity has rebounded, services
activities remain weak, creating winners and losers       The sooner vaccines can be distributed and
across the economy. The stock market has propelled        administered across the United States and Europe,
average household net worth to record highs in the        the sooner the transatlantic economy can heal. In the
United States, although nearly two-thirds of Americans    near-term, Covid-19 concerns will temper consumer
live paycheck to paycheck. Unemployment levels have       spending on both sides of the Atlantic, although a
come down somewhat from last summer’s highs, but          second-half rebound in transatlantic spending is widely
the level of unemployment remains elevated among          expected. At $14 trillion, U.S. personal consumption
U.S. retail workers, women, and Black Americans.          remains one of the most potent economic forces in the
                                                          world, accounting for nearly 30% of global personal
We expect the employment picture to improve
                                                          consumption in 2019 – greater than that of the next
gradually this year, following historic declines in 2020.
                                                          five largest consuming markets in the world combined:
Jobs markets in both the United States and Europe are
                                                          China, Japan, Germany, the UK, and India. Since the U.S.
slowly set to improve. A normalized transatlantic jobs
                                                          consumer accounts for 70% of U.S. GDP, as goes the
market is not expected until the vaccine has been widely
                                                          U.S. consumer, so goes the U.S. economy.
Figure 6. The U.S. vs. Euro Area						                                   (Real GDP, Annual Percent Change)
    6
    5
    4
    3
    2
     1
    0
    -1
   -2
   -3
   -4
   -5
                       U.S.     Euro Area
   -6
   -7
         2000

                2001

                        2002

                               2003

                                      2004

                                             2005

                                                     2006

                                                            2007

                                                                   2008

                                                                          2009

                                                                                                                                                        2020*
                                                                                 2010

                                                                                         2011

                                                                                                2012

                                                                                                       2013

                                                                                                              2014

                                                                                                                     2015

                                                                                                                            2016

                                                                                                                                   2017

                                                                                                                                          2018

                                                                                                                                                 2019

                                                                                                                                                                2021*

*2020 estimate, 2021 forecast. Data as of March 2021.
Sources: International Monetary Fund; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Eurostat.
                                                                                                                                                                        11
ECONOMIC FORECAST
                                            FOR FINLAND
                                                         Juho Kostiainen
                                                 Economist, Senior Analyst, Nordea

     The Finnish economy is forecast to grow by 3% this          Figure 5. Finland: GDP Forecast		          (Index 2015 = 100)
     year after a 2.9% drop in 2020. Private consumption
     will serve as the driver of the economic recovery this       113
     year. As the coronavirus restrictions are removed
     and the economic uncertainty abates, consumers
                                                                  111
     are expected to start spending again, and pent-up
     demand will begin to unwind.
                                                                 109
     The manufacturing sector has fared substantially
     better during the coronavirus crisis than in many
     previous crises, and the recovery of the global             107
     economy will improve the outlook for exports and
     investment. The quick rebound in the housing market                                                           1/2021
     has sent the number of building permits for residential     105
     construction rising, and housing construction is
     expected to begin growing again this year.
                                                                 103
     The government has assumed a large role in                                                               5/2020
     managing the economic fallout from the coronavirus
     crisis, offering relief to businesses, municipalities and    101
     the unemployed from the public purse.. However, the
     public finances have a structural deficit that will not
                                                                  99
     fully disappear once the economy picks up.

     The risks facing the economy have not disappeared
                                                                  97
     either, and the forecasts include a considerable
                                                                               GDP Volume          Trend Indicator of Output
     degree of uncertainty. The forecasts are based on the
     assumption that the coronavirus crisis in Finland will       95
     remain moderate in the spring and will subside in the          2015 2016 2017           2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
     summer, and that no new sweeping restrictions will
     have to be imposed next autumn.                             Sources: Nordea and Macrobond

             Table 1. Finland: Key Figures                              2018         2019       2020E     2021E      2022E
              Real GDP, % y/y                                            1,3          1,1        -3,0       3,0         2,0
              Consumer prices, % y/y                                     1,1          1,0         0,3       0,8         1,2
              Unemployment rate, %                                       7,4          6,7         7,7       7,6         6,9
              Wages, % y/y                                               1,7          2,1         1,8       2,0         2,0
              Public sector surplus, % of GDP                           -0,9         -1,0        -4,7       -3,1       -2,5
              Publice sector debt, % of GDP                             59,6         59,3        70,7      70,5        70,7
              ECB deposit interest rate (at year-end)                   -0,40        -0,50       -0,50     -0,50       -0,50
             Sources: Nordea Economic Outlook 2021
12
FINLAND AND THE UNITED STATES

                         United States in Finland                                                           Finland in the United States

                                     21,228                                        Jobs
                                                                                                                         36,283
 Jobs directly supported by majority-owned affiliates. Estimates for 2019. Total U.S.-related jobs are likely to be higher, because these figures do not include jobs
created by trade flows, indirect employment effects through distributors or suppliers, or via non-equity arrangements such as strategic alliances, joint ventures, or
                                                                           other deals.

                                  $3.7 bn                                      Investment                              $14.8 bn
                  Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), 2019                                                  Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), 2019
     The direct investment balance favors the United States, with Finnish investment in the U.S. rising in 2019 to over $14 billion. Total
       employment by Finnish companies in the U.S. has also risen substantially over the past few years from 23,000 in 2015 to over
     36,000 in 2019. Finnish direct investment in the U.S. is heavily concentrated in the wholesale trade and manufacturing industries,
                                            representing 15% and 72% of total FDI, respectively.
                          U.S. FDI Position in Finland                                                       Finland FDI Position in the U.S.
 Billion $                                                                               Billion $
       16                                                                                      16
       14                                                                                      14
        12                                                                                     12
       10                                                                                      10
         8                                                                                      8
         6                                                                                      6
         4                                                                                      4
         2                                                                                      2
         0                                                                                      0
             00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19                             00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

                                                      Foreign direct investment position, historic-cost basis, 2000-2019.

                                  $1.8 bn                                         Trade in
                                                                                   Goods
                                                                                                                         $6.4 bn
                    U.S. Goods Exports to Finland, 2019                                                  U.S. Goods Imports from Finland, 2019
 2.1%        The U.S. supplied                  7.5%    …but the U.S. share               7.5%       The U.S. received 7.5%            18.1%   …but the U.S. share
             2.1% of Finland's                          increases to 7.5%                            of the total goods                        increases to 18.1%
             total imports…                             when intra-EU trade                          Finland exported to                       when intra-EU trade
                                                        is excluded from the                         the world…                                is excluded from the
                                                        total.                                                                                 total.

      Top Five U.S. Goods Exports to Finland ($ millions)                                  Top Five U.S. Goods Imports from Finland ($ millions)
                  Computers &                                  385.1                                          Chemical                                  1,054.7
                   Electronics                                  621.1                                    Manufactures                           171.8

                         Mining
                                                           293.6                                            Machinery                                 897.6
                                                        93.0                                             Manufactures                                474.6
                 Transportation                            241.9                                          Petroleum &                              851.8
                    Equipment                              215.5                                         Coal Products                           288.2
                      Chemical                             224.3                                                                                        818.1
                                                                                                     Paper Products
                  Manufactures                          76.7                                                                                            702.6
                     Machinery                            164.9                                      Transportation                                   786.1
                  Manufactures                            161.5                                         Equipment                                    494.6
                                  0             10         1,000        100,000                                          0             10        1,000            100,000

                                      n 2019 n 2000                                                                          n 2019 n 2000

    Top State Exporters of Goods to Finland ($ millions)                                   Top State Importers of Goods from Finland ($ millions)
             1               2              3              4             5                           1             2               3             4                  5
        239.1            144.0           136.6          97.8            82.3                    1,047.6         705.5     665.0                493.5             383.7
        Texas           California      Michigan       Georgia          Ohio                   Pennsyl-       New Jersey Maryland              Texas            Georgia
                                                                                                  vania

                                  $2.0 bn                                         Trade in
                                                                                  Services
                                                                                                                             $1.8 bn
                  U.S. Services Exports to Finland, 2019                                             U.S. Services Imports from Finland, 2019                               13

                                                 Note: U.K. included in EU for purposes of calculating intra-EU trade.
                 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Commerce Department; International Monetary Fund; Office of Trade and Economic Analysis.
LAUNCHPAD
           USA

                                 LAUNCHPAD
                                    USA
                                     Mike Klyszeiko
                      Director of Launchpad USA, Amcham Finland

        Launchpad USA is the most effective U.S. market entry platform available
        to Finnish companies. It's offered exclusively to members of Amcham
        Finland.

        On the Launchpad, Finnish companies receive a tailored market entry
        plan that is designed to:

                   Minimize risks associated with doing business in America.

                   Accelerate marketing and sales activities.

                   Deepen the knowledge of the U.S. market.

                   Provide ongoing support through the entry and growth
                   stages of doing business in America.

        "This is exactly the kind of support we have been looking for."
                                                Pavlos Ylinen, Managing Director
                                                                   Datafisher Oy

        "I felt relieved after the first phone call with Mike Klyszeiko from
        Amcham Finland. Mike’s knowledge of the required actions was
        reassuring. Mike was clear, logical and effective. He explained the
        required actions, coached us and helped us to make it all happen.
        Remarkable expertise!"
                                                 Tarja Keen, Chairman of the Board
                                                                          Finnero Oy
                                                                                       © Cameron Venti

        To learn more, contact Mike Klyszeiko (mike.klyszeiko.amcham.fi;
        +358 45 140 4911) or visit our website at amcham.fi/launchpad-usa/

14
OPPORTUNITIES

Innovation and R&D Efforts in High-Tech and Knowledge-Based Industries
Strengthening the Transatlantic Trade Relationship
Trade & Technology dialogue
Finnish Leadership in the context of the EU on Transatlantic Issues

                                                                   Cleantech
                                            Shift Towards Renewable Energy
                                 Sustainable Consumption and Development
                                             Transition to Climate Neutrality
                                                      Smart City Technology
                                                         Arctic Technologies

Economics
and Trade

                                                            Climate
                                                            and Energy
                      Opportunities
                     for U.S.-Finland
                       Cooperation
                        & Business

        Digital                                                      Health Care

                                                                   Digital Health Systems
                                                                   Pharmaceuticals
                                                                   Wellness & Care
                                                                   EMR & Patient Monitoring
5G/6G
                                                                   Bio Banks
Cybersecurity
                                                                   Finland as a Testbed
Age of AI
                                                                   Medical Devices
DSA & DMA
Global Digital Economy
Quantum Technologies
Cloud Computing
SaaS, Iaas and Paas Solutions; Software and Consulting Services

                                                                                                   15
THE

FINLAND SUPPLEMENT TO THE
TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021

            THE

            FINLAND SUPPLEMENT TO THE
            TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY 2021

                             Partners:
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