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Policy Paper
Democratic Reform in Jordan? Calls for political reform in Jordan
have come at a time when there
Expectations After the is no popular political pressure or
protest movement in the streets,
as was the case during the Arab
King’s Recent Call to Review
Spring, and - unexpectedly -
after the parliamentary elections.
As a result, political elites have
developed various theories to
Political Life explain the timing of these
calls and the hidden motives
behind them. Of course, this
also raises the usual questions
about whether there was in
fact a genuine and serious
intent to move further towards
a democratic transition, which
seems to have stalled and
perhaps even been reversed,
Muhammad Abu Rumman with regard to Jordan’s ranking
March 2021 for democratic institutions and
international human rights.
1Democratic Reform in Jordan?
Expectations After the
King’s Recent Call to Review
Political Life
Muhammad Abu Rumman
March 2021
2Published in 2021 by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq
FES Jordan & Iraq
P.O. Box 941876
Amman 11194
Jordan
Email: fes@fes-jordan.org
Website: www.fes-jordan.org
Not for Sale
© Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Resident Director: Tim O. Petschulat
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reprinted, reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means
without prior written permission from the publishers.
The views and opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of the original author. They do not necessarily
represent those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
• Cover and internal design: Kamal QasimContents
Contents
Introduction 5
Historical Review: A Faltering Democracy 7
Determinants and Restrictions on Democratic Transition 10
Discussing Political Reform Today 14
Prospects for Political Transformation 17
Conclusion 19
Bibliography 21
4Introduction
1
Introduction
In an interview with the Jordan News Agency in the number of seats won by the Islamist
on 30 January 2021, King Abdullah II spoke opposition, which makes up the largest
about reviewing Jordanian laws governing political party in Jordan. They were unable
political life, particularly the controversial to form a parliamentary bloc because a bloc
Elections Law, Local Administration Law, and requires thirteen representatives, while the
Political Parties Law.1 Islamists and their allies took only eight seat.
The irony is that the king’s unexpected What drew attention to the king’s comments
statements were made only about two was that the Minister of Political and
months after Jordan’s most recent Parliamentary Affairs, Musa Al-Maaitah,
parliamentary elections, which saw a marked immediately confirmed this stance in various
decline in popular engagement and political political exchanges. He indicated that the
participation, particularly in the capital, government intended to open spaces for
Amman, and other major cities. There was also dialogue among different groups in order to
a drop in Palestinian-Jordanian representation review laws governing political activity, as the
in the political process. This was particularly king had mentioned in his speech.
evident in the composition of the Jordanian
Senate, which is appointed by royal decree. Later, the king signaled again that he planned
Moreover, there were complaints about the to change course politically, when he sent
substantial role of political financing in the an unusual letter to the head of the General
elections, and the general failure of political Intelligence Directorate, Ahmad Husni. In the
parties to get their candidates into parliament. letter, the king called on him to develop the
Furthermore, there was a significant decline directorate and its operations, and relieved it
of its previous burdens outside the scope of
1 The king was quoted by the Jordan News Agency professional security, particularly in the field
as saying: “We must examine the laws governing
political life, such as the Elections, Political Parties, of investment. This casts a shadow on the
and Local Administration Laws,” Jordan News
Agency, 31 January 2021, at the following link: celebrations and retrospectives taking place
https://cutt.us/jmOVX
5Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq - Democratic Reform in Jordan?
on the eve of the kingdom’s centennial, as well It is also ironic that calls for political reform are
as on the calls for political and administrative happening while there is no popular political
reform that had begun to circulate in political pressure at all, or protest movement in the
and media circles.2 streets, as we saw during the Arab Spring,
and—unexpectedly— after the parliamentary
Leading media and political figures have elections. As a result, political elites have come
embraced these new calls to reexamine the up with all kinds of theories to explain the
path towards reform. However, much of timing of these calls, and the hidden motives
Jordanian society seems apprehensive about behind them. Of course, this also raises all
the matter, and harbors major doubts about the usual questions about whether there was
how serious these comments really are. really a genuine and serious intent to move
There have been many proposals for political further towards a democratic transition, which
reform over the last two decades, drawn up seems to have stalled and perhaps even been
by committees formed by royal decree and reversed, with regard to Jordan’s ranking
backed by the king’s assurances that this would for democratic institutions and international
speed up the process of democratic transition. human rights.
These committees included the “Jordan First”
Committee, the National Agenda Committee, This policy paper aims to discuss the reasons,
and the National Dialogue Committee, which motives, assumptions and opinion of members
were formed during the Arab Spring. However, of the political elite, regarding the renewed
these did nothing to change the political conversation around political reform today,
status quo; indeed, Jordan recently dropped and the potential outcomes and practical
lower on the Economist Intelligence Unit’s expectations for this.
Democracy Index, which previously classified
Jordan as a hybrid regime and now considers
it to be authoritarian.
2 See the letter in full in the following news article: “The
king’s letter to the head of the General Intelligence
Directorate: Focus all energies within appropriate
jurisdiction,” Ammon News, 17 February 2021, at
the following link: https://cutt.us/cPa7Z
6Historical Review: A Faltering Democracy
2
Historical Review: A Faltering Democracy
Parliamentary life in Jordan had an early Representatives, led by prime minister Suleiman
beginning. It began with the passage of the Nabulsi (1956-57). This arrangement was short-
Basic Law of the Transjordan Emirate in 1929 lived, due to the Free Officers’ coup attempt,
and continued after the kingdom declared its after which various ministers, politicians, and
independence (and issued the constitution of military figures were imprisoned. Shortly after,
1947), and after the Unification of the Two Samir Al-Rifai’s government collapsed in 1963,
Banks in 1950, and constitution of 1952. after a parliamentary vote of no confidence.4
Parliamentary activity came to a halt in 1974,
after the 1974 Arab League summit in Rabat Parliamentary elections resumed again in
declared the Palestine Liberation Organization 1989, after protests in the south spread
(PLO) to be the “sole legitimate representative throughout the kingdom. The eleventh
of the Palestinian people,” which resulted parliament was therefore held at an historical
in the suspension of parliamentary elections juncture in which the Islamist opposition took
and the parliament itself. The parliament was a significant portion of seats in the House
replaced by the National Consultative Councils of Representatives, and various political
from 1978 until 1984, when the ninth opposition forces and figures rose to power.
parliament was reconvened in an extended
session (after previously being elected and Most importantly, political life made tangible
then prorogued).3 progress after this, through reexamining all
laws that restricted political activity and political
The 1950s and 1960s saw the emergence parties. This gave rise to the Jordanian National
of strong and effective parliaments, and for Charter of 1992, in coordination with leaders
the first time, a parliamentary government of diverse political forces in the country. There
with a majority coalition in the House of
4 See: Hany al-Hourani, The History of Parliamentary
Life in Jordan (1929-1957), Sharq Press, Nicosia
3 “The Suspension of Parliament and Establishment (Cyprus), 1989, p. 77-99; and “Details on the Session
of National Consultative Councils (1974-1984),” that Brought Down the Government of Samir al-Rifai
Parliament of Jordan website, at the following link: in 1963,” Zamancom- Qisat al-Ams, at the following
https://cutt.us/VSwHa link: https://www.zamancom.com/?p=4236.
7Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq - Democratic Reform in Jordan?
were laws established pertaining to political activity in 1992. It participated again in
parties, meetings, and public freedoms, and it parliamentary elections in 2003, after the
seemed that the official institutional position elections had been postponed for two
was to turn towards a new democratic path, years. However, in the parliamentary and
and transition towards a new political stage. municipal elections of 2007, there was blatant
interference aimed to weaken Islamists and
However, the democratic process was stalled the opposition in general. This led to early
again by international and regional events elections in 2010, which the Islamists also
(including the second Gulf War in 1990, and boycotted. The election was held under the
ensuing international and regional animosity new election system, known as the “virtual
towards Jordan in the aftermath of the war), districts” system. It is thought that this was
as well as domestic challenges (such as the also designed to weaken political opposition.6
economic crisis, privatization program, and
transition towards a free market economy, The parliament quickly lost its public support,
with its corresponding financial and economic after a questionable decision to give the
procedures that were not aligned with public government a vote of confidence, as popular
needs). These challenges became apparent in protests began in Jordan, and in the Arab
the 1993 elections, which were carried out world in general. By the beginning of the
according to the new elections system, known following year, the Arab youth uprisings
as the “one-man one-vote” law in political broke out. It was a moment of unprecedented
circles. It is widely believed that the law was transformation in the Arab world that
designed to weaken Islamist opposition in light overthrew rulers known for their iron grip (in
of the Jordanian-Israeli peace negotiations Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen). This also
which began with the Madrid Peace led to changes in the Jordanian government,
Conference of 1991 and continued through and the launch of national dialogue initiatives
the signing of the peace treaty in 1994, which to produce political reform. A National
was then ratified by the twelfth parliament.5 Dialogue Committee was set up, as well as a
Royal Committee to examine constitutional
The Muslim Brotherhood boycotted the amendments. The constitution was reviewed
elections of 1997, as did its party, the Islamic to an unprecedented extent, and there were
Action Front, which was founded after the many amendments made to its articles.
resurgence of political parties and political This was seen as a means to strengthen the
5 For more details about the return to parliamentary 6 Mohammad Abu Rumman and Hassan Abu Hanieh,
life and what came after, see Dr. Ali Muhafaza, The Islamic Solution in Jordan: Islamists and Ventures
Restricting Democracy: Jordan from 1989-1999, of Democracy and Security, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
Center for Arab Unity Studies, Beirut, first edition, (Amman) and Center for Strategic Studies (University
2001, p. 131-307. of Jordan), Amman, 2013, p. 78-92, 142-146.
8Historical Review: A Faltering Democracy
parliament and to reestablish the balance of first time was based on proportional open
power in government. The Elections Law was lists at the governorate level; this system was
also amended to keep the “one-man one- also used in the 2020 elections. Both of these
vote” system, and to implement national lists. elections saw the renewed involvement of
In 2012, elections were held again, although Islamists and opposition parties in general.8
they were boycotted again by the Islamists.7
In 2016, elections took place in accordance
with the new electoral system, which for the
8 See Saleh Abdel Fatah al-Khawaldeh, The Electoral
System in Jordan in 2016: An Analytical Study, at
7 Musa Shteiwi, et al., Constitutional Reform in the following link: https://www.researchgate.net/
Jordan, Center for Strategic Studies at the University publication/328065233_alnzam_alantkhaby_fy_
of Jordan, 2016, p. 61-96. alardn_lam_2016m_Drast_thlylyt
9Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq - Democratic Reform in Jordan?
3
Determinants and Restrictions on Democratic
Transition
It has been repeatedly observed during that one of the principles of foreign policy is
evaluations of the political process that it is shaped by domestic policy, that is,
throughout the past century that key political it is the product of the perspectives of the
breakthroughs usually occurred after popular government, opposition, and other various
protest movements— whether in 1929, 1956, forces. In the Jordanian case, it seems to
or 1989. However, external factors also played be the other way around—domestic policy
a major role— whether the British mandate, was shaped by foreign affairs, and reflected
the Palestinian question and its entanglements regional developments happening around it.
within Jordanian domestic politics, or other
international and regional developments. In the 1950s, Nasserist discourse came to
This brings us to the main factors that will constitute a challenge to the legitimacy of
determine how the democratic process and the Jordanian regime. Coups in neighboring
political reform proceed in Jordan. countries brought military figures, socialists,
and Ba’athist nationalists to power, while the
A) Jordan’s Geostrategic Position: Jordan’s infamous al-Rehab palace massacre of 1958
geographic position creates significant ended Hashemite rule in Iraq. In the 1960s,
challenges with regard to both the regional the PLO emerged, and then the events of
and international context. Jordan is located September 1970 took place (i.e. the conflict
between key Arab countries (Syria, Iraq, Saudi between the Jordanian state and Palestinian
Arabia, and Egypt). These are neighboring organizations). During the reign of the late
countries whose borders have sometimes King Hussein bin Talal, the question of
overlapped, as occurred with the Unification Palestinian representation was an important
of the Two Banks in 1950 because of the and pressing question shaping the contours of
Palestinian question, which has heightened Jordanian politics, both foreign and domestic,
security concerns in domestic politics and up until the decision to sever connections
increased the influence of foreign relations on between the West Bank and Jordan in 1988.
domestic affairs. Perhaps one of the ironies is Jordan also welcomed the largest numbers of
10Determinants and Restrictions on Democratic Transition
Palestinian refugees after the 1948 Nakba and B) The Demographic Factor: This brings us
1967 defeat.9 to another determinant for the democratic
transition, namely the demographic factor,
International and regional factors also shaped which is essentially a euphemism for the
the calculations of Jordanian leaders, who relationship between East Bank Jordanians
were preoccupied with political stability as and Palestinian-Jordanians. This issue is the
they grappled with what Jordanian historians result of extensive interconnections between
have described as “historic emergencies” the two groups, especially after the Unification
for the kingdom. Concerns about political of the Two Banks in 1950. This was followed
stability usually took precedence over political by the severance of ties between the two
reform, although the Jordanian regime was banks in 1988, which annulled Palestinian-
considered, in comparison to other Arab Jordanian citizenship, including for those
regimes, to be more open and tolerant with who had yellow Palestinian identity cards.
its opponents and freedom of expression. The In between these two states of affairs, the
prevailing belief was, and remains to this day, events of September 1970 took place, which
that stability should come before democracy created serious divisions in this relationship
due to the regional context and circumstances. (Jordanians would throw their weight into
the public sector, while Palestinian-Jordanians
There were certain historical moments dominated in the private sector).
celebrated in the discourse of opposition
elites, which preoccupied political leaders The demographic factor pervaded many
who did not want to see such events happen political and economic arrangements. For
again. This occurred with the parliamentary “East Bank Jordanians,” this issue was about
government of 1956, which was accused protecting the national identity of the state
of collaborating with regional Nasserist and and fears of an alternate state. This was
Baathist forces, and the fall of Samir al- also related to political elites’ belief that
Rifai’s government (a similar parliament never international actors saw Jordan as a state that
emerged again). Furthermore, the events of could absorb Palestinian refugees in place of
1970 caused internal strife, which developed their original homeland. These concerns were
into deeper questions about the relationship reflected in the Election Law and geographic
between national identity and citizenship. and demographic controversies, as well as
in economic issues, privatization, and the
imposition of taxes. This also influenced the
9 See, for example, Hazem Nuseibeh, A Contemporary
Political History of Jordan from 1952-1967, Amman, development of the principles of citizenship,
second edition, 1992, p. 49-59; and Suleiman Mousa,
A Contemporary History of Jordan (June 1967-1995), political rights, and political representation
Ministry of Culture, Amman, 2011, p. 9-15, 69-105,
and 129-162.
for Jordanians of Palestinian descent. Any
11Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq - Democratic Reform in Jordan?
changes or developments in the democratic 1990s until today has become dominated
path or political reform process must seriously by Jordanians of Palestinian descent, which
take into account this situation, especially adds to the sensitivity and mutual concerns
given the growing calls from political elites around the issue. There are many internal
on both sides. One side calls for the rights to political factors that have contributed to
citizenship that it has been deprived, while the this, such as official policies encouraging the
other warns that Jordanian identity is being Jordanian elites to leave the Brotherhood and
threatened. found other entities, which do not have the
same presence on the ground as the parent
C) Islamists: Although the Muslim Brotherhood organization they arose from.
and their party, the Islamist Action Front,
constitute a legal opposition party in Jordan, In addition to all this, the relationship with
there are particular issues that distinguish the Muslim Brotherhood has played a key role
Islamists from other political forces, and which in determining domestic policy and creating
have complicated their relationship with a framework for the democratic process.
other state institutions. It is well-known that This is because political leaders felt that the
Islamists are particularly effective in mobilizing Brotherhood had foreign connections and
popular forces; they have an exceptional was working across borders through the
capacity to address the public and harness Brotherhood’s international organization.
popular sentiments. Their position is more The Brotherhood then moved towards
sensitive because of its connection to religion, developing their domestic organization and
and also because of concerns that have formally ended their connections with the
been raised both by the regime and other organization’s international arm. The regime
political forces regarding Islamists’ ultimate continued to see the Brotherhood’s regional
intentions. Although they have stated their political interests as violating the state’s
commitment to the democratic process, there policies. In 2006, it was claimed they were
are still suspicions and concerns among diverse part of a regional alliance, the so-called “Axis
political groups who feel that they have other of Resistance” consisting of Iran, Hezbollah,
hidden agendas. Hamas, and the Islamists. After the Arab
Spring in 2011, they were seen as part of the
It should be mentioned that although there Turkish-Qatari-Islamist coalition. There was
had for decades been good relations between also alleged cooperation between Hamas
King Hussein and the Islamists, the internal (an extension of the Muslim Brotherhood in
composition of the Brotherhood from the Palestine) and the Brotherhood in Jordan. In
12Determinants and Restrictions on Democratic Transition
2009-2010, an organizational restructuring Dr. Jafar Hassan, head of the Politics and
took place in which Hamas officially split from Society Institute, affirmed the importance of
the Brotherhood in Jordan.10 this determinant in an interview on 20 February
2021. He also discussed the regional influences
D) The Government and Opposition’s which have placed security before reform
Conflicting Interests: As is the case with any during different periods of history. The king
country in the world, one of the factors shaping himself has stated (in his book Our Last Best
the democratic process has to do with the Chance) that the process of political reform
conflict between the forces that are in power often took a step backward for every two
and which benefit from the current situation, steps forward because some were opposed to
and the opposition forces which try to enact change out of fear that they would lose certain
change. The conservative and state-affiliated privileges. Meanwhile, others were opposed
forces do not want changes that would because they lacked the proper vision, and
alter the balance of power and detract from simply preferred to keep things as they were.
centralized authority, while the opposition tries
to distribute power and expand participation Hassan added that the king has said that on a
and partnerships in decision-making. Despite number of occasions, he encountered officials
periodic elections, there has not been a who lacked the courage to undertake difficult
broader distribution of authority, expansion of changes, or who were only concerned with
the decision-making base, or a better balance their own interests, instead of the affairs of
between the different centers of authority, as the people whom they were appointed to take
is generally the case with democratic system. care of and serve.
10 Mohammad Abu Rumman, The State and the
Brotherhood: Playing with Red Lines in Jordan, Al
Jazeera Center for Studies, 10 February 2014, at the
following link: https:/cutt.us/TCCny
13Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq - Democratic Reform in Jordan?
4
Discussing Political Reform Today
In light of what has been discussed above, According to Eyadat, the second perspective is
whether regarding history or the factors that the new initiative did not come out of a
shaping a democratic transition, what are the vacuum but rather was founded on a deeper
prospects for a new conversation today about reading of the geostrategic shifts in the region,
political reform, and could it achieve different which are also connected to the Jordanian
results than earlier attempts? situation. After what happened with the
Palestinian question, normalization, and its
Jordanian political elites have multiple opinions effects on Jordan, perhaps what distinguishes
on this matter, most of which are tied to the Jordan in the Arab region today and gives it
“timing” of the new initiative. In the regard, particular importance for the West and the
Dr. Zaid Eyadat, director of the Center of US administration, is that it offers an example
Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan, of an outstanding reforming democracy. This
said in an interview on 16 February 2021 that is especially important given that the new US
there were two perspectives among different administration has made key observations
political circles regarding the new initiative. about how politics in the Arab world today
are descending into authoritarianism. It will
The first group felt that there was no way to therefore find Jordan to be an excellent ally
get out of the usual game of buying time, in an with a particular role to play, in contrast with
effort to signal Jordan’s intentions to the new its neighbors.
US administration. This is regarding making
the Middle East a priority, and that it will not These two theories also have followers among
sacrifice its interests for the sake of democracy. political elites on the ground. Marwan al-
The new US administration is different in that Faouri, who founded the Islamic Center Party in
it is more interested in this matter, and will be Jordan and the Global Forum for Moderation,
eager to improve political life, especially with said in an interview on 18 February 2021
allies like Jordan. that he saw connections between the recent
Jordanian protest movement and the new US
administration. He described this as a domestic
14Discussing Political Reform Today
political shift in anticipation of any potential parliamentary life, and made tangible changes
US pressure or linking of aid to issues related towards the democratic process.
to human rights and public freedoms.
Dr. Mohamed al-Momani, a current Jordanian
Al-Faouri said that the many different signals senator, former Minister of Media Affairs and
coming out of centers of power in Amman Communications, and a professor of political
demonstrate the necessity of political science, played down the issue of US pressure
change and the need to mend the fractured in his interview on 17 February 2021. He
relationship between the state and society. This pointed out that the US administration will
became particularly clear in the letter from the not be focused during the coming period
king to the head of the General Intelligence on the region as a whole, nor on the issue
Directorate, which indicated the king’s intent of democracy. The most important thing is
to reformulate the role of the directorate to that US allies remain interested in supporting
become limited to the professional security domestic political stability. Thus, any call for
sphere. Al-Faouri stated that this could later domestic reform is intended to be balanced
lead to moving domestic affairs to a different with the issue of stability, and not to stir up
or perhaps new agency, as has happened in the country or weaken the state or regime.
other countries, such as the US, which leaves Additionally, the current US position is
domestic affairs to the FBI. that political reform must necessarily come
from within, and not from the outside, and
In an interview conducted on 18 February that it should be connected to the specific
2021, Sakher Dudin, a Jordanian senator, circumstances of each country.
shared Faouri’s vision regarding the role
of international changes, especially the Dr. Jafar Hassan agreed with al-Momani’s
new US administration, in explaining the position and added that this was an opportune
resurgence of the question of political moment, more than ever before, due to the lack
reform. He also connected this with the of regional and international pressures. This
difficult economic situation and its domestic could perhaps help in a peaceful transition to
political consequences especially in light of the political reform process, and in translating
the coronavirus pandemic. The pandemic the king’s vision to turn its components and
has forced leaders to make political change objectives into a reality, especially regarding
happen in order to deal with the general developing public administration and creating
situation in country, and to alleviate domestic a state grounded in laws and institutions,
political discontent. This attempt to preempt as we currently see in the state’s centennial
potential unrest mirrors what King Hussein did political discourse.
in 1989, when he anticipated global changes,
reviewed domestic affairs, launched a return to
15Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq - Democratic Reform in Jordan?
Al-Momni attributes the real reason for this place for themselves in the spaces provided by
change to the king’s belief in the need for the state, then they will turn to popular politics
political reform following the centennial of the and protests as an alternate route through
Jordanian state. This is why he has presented an which they can make their voices heard.
approach emphasizing the need to reevaluate
political laws without getting involved in the However, a key question remains: Why did
details. He thus leaving the door open for state the initiative not launch these calls for reform
institutions, political forces, and civil society before the recent parliamentary elections,
organizations to develop a consensus-based and wait until after the elections took place?
national approach to make the necessary leap Politicians suggested that the current political
forward. situation is connected to the previous political
stage, namely, the Trump administration’s
Regardless of experts’ different explanations policies, which encouraged conservative
and justifications, all concluded by saying currents, as well as the remnants of the
that the changing international and regional Arab Spring and the deep rift in trust that
context is behind the new call for reform and it created between the regime and political
is spurring Jordan to regain control over the forces, especially Islamists. This had an effect
reform initiative, whether through relationships on the composition of the government
with the new US administration or through and the two chambers of parliament (the
becoming an example in the region. Internal Senate and House of Representatives), and
domestic dynamics are of no less importance the general trend towards state policies that
here, especially with regard to the conditions pushed Jordan towards its classification as an
created by the economic and financial crisis, the authoritarian state, and its drop on the global
record levels of unemployment, the widening list of democratic countries.
gap between the government and the people,
and escalating unrest among political forces. The new international circumstances and
All of this led to the preemptory steps that corresponding feedback that parliamentary
have been taken, as leaders signal their intent elections and the political status quo had
to prepare for new societal circumstances in not adequately addressed current unrest
Jordan. or the domestic and foreign challenges on
the horizon, strengthened the conviction in
We should mention another important variable centers of power that political changes need
here, namely, the new generation of youth to occur. They have taken advantage of the
who are suffering from challenging financial opportunity to discuss the state’s centennial,
and economic circumstances. They feel to conduct internal reviews, and to focus on
politically alienated and will mobilize to make taking serious steps forward.
their demands heard. If they do not find a
16Prospects for Political Transformation
5
Prospects for Political Transformation
If we move beyond timing and the intentions that the king as the head of executive authority
at play to the work being done, we might has the responsibility to defend the country’s
ask the following key question: What are the interests and its national security through his
limitations and possibilities for the political government.
reform that is being discussed? Will this really
lead to a tangible leap forward in the process These discussion papers demonstrate an
of democratic transition? advanced and deep reading of the Jordanian
situation, but until now there has been no
The answer to this question lies within all roadmap for implementing them gradually
that has been previously discussed, with and through building consensus, as the king
regard to the parameters for democratic called for. This will involve overcoming major
transition, the historical past (in the state’s obstacles, especially the fragmentation of
subconscious), as well as the Royal Discussion political parties and the inability to build an
Papers. These important documents were equivalent space for Islamists in politics. This
issued by the king in the form of seven main has created a choice between the state and
papers, during a five-year period from 2012 Islamism without any competition within the
to 2017. Of these papers, five dealt directly political system, as is necessary for the kind of
with the king’s vision for what he wanted to political diversity we see in other states, as Dr.
achieve in the Jordanian political system and Mohamed al-Momni observed.
democracy, and the conditions and dynamics
necessary to achieve this. He clearly discusses Al-Momani and Sakher Dudin have now
the need to create a parliamentary monarchy, thrown the ball in the court of the political
parliamentary governments, to distribute forces to send clear messages that will help
power, and to develop parliamentary activity turn the king’s intentions into a political reality
and political parties in the country. He also through building consensus about national
mentions the role of the monarchy in ensuring interests and developing a consensus-based
the implementation of the constitution and political project to form a roadmap that would
17Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq - Democratic Reform in Jordan?
gradually help the domestic political situation There is still much groundwork that needs to be
progress forward. done for this transition, especially since earlier
stages experienced challenging international,
Although the monarchy is leaning towards regional and local developments. This had
political reform following the state’s centennial, domestic repercussions and has resulted in
and there are political forces and elites who heightened concerns around this issue and
support this, there are also still major barriers created general unrest, particularly regarding
that stand in the way. Additionally, political political corruption allegations. This has in
parties are weak, and there are influential turn led to the domestic opposition protest
conservative forces that have concerns that movements going out to the streets, along with
political reform would led to demographic discontented youth protestors. In addition,
changes or harm domestic political stability. there are issues related to political parties,
As a result, the outlook for the reform process current political forces, and consecutive
depends to a great extent on the capacity to domestic crises, including the recent teachers’
rebuild trust and consensus, not only about protests, which ended in a ruling to dissolve
laws and politics, but also about a gradual, the teachers’ syndicate. This is still an ongoing
consensus-based national roadmap that could crisis with many potential outcomes.
dispel fears and unite different agendas.
18Conclusion
6
Conclusion
Many within state circles and among political withdraw from the fields of investment and
elites feel that there is now a serious call from the anti-corruption, and to allow the appropriate
king to open discussion about political reform, institutions to carry out that work. Politics is
which is connected to major changes in both not entirely absent from this letter either, or
foreign and domestic contexts. However, the from the analyses of the message that came
prospects of this call are tied to other factors, from those close to decision-makers. This issue
including holding a smart national dialogue, is also complicated because the directorate has
and reaching consensus between different permeated throughout domestic politics—not
popular forces— not only the usual political only today, but over its long history. This means
forces but also youth and civil society—and that rethinking the scope of intelligence in this
rebuilding trust between the different parties field will require more time, and gradual steps
involved. Concerns must also be assuaged and and procedures, as well as more carefully
mutual assurances delivered in order to reach distinguishing between the scope of politics
a plan that benefits everyone. It seems that and security, which have largely overlapped
the factor of time will be important in light and become mixed together during the past
of the domestic economic crisis, the rise in decades.
unemployment, and frustration among wide
sectors of society. How can we prevent a repeat of what
happened before, when plans for political
The king’s letter to the head of the General reform did not become a reality?
Intelligence Directorate demonstrates that The answer to this question includes multi ple
there are new arrangements being made, points:
especially since there were meetings and • A first step to address the downgrading in
dialogues in government and elite circles after the Economist’s democracy ranking could
the letter to evaluate how to make it happen on be to stop ruling the country by defense
the ground. In his message, the king focused law
on the need for the intelligence directorate to
19Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq - Democratic Reform in Jordan?
• Affirm the king’s intentions through other This will lead to filling the gap that may
political messages to state institutions to be produced by the withdrawal of the
strengthen calls for deeper political reform. intelligence directorate from the many
responsibilities it has held, some of which
• Messages from the political opposition that it has held for decades.
give the impression that their demands
are reasonable and realistic, and that • Presenting an executive action plan and
they understand the need to compromise benchmarks for each of the planned
on the components and requirements in stages, such as making progress with the
order for Jordan to become a model for election law, developing real incentives to
consensus-building. strengthen political parties, political parties
developing their internal democracy
• Agreeing on how to run the upcoming and discourses, integrating youth and
transitional stage and to gradually women into political work in general,
implement political reforms to overcome and gradually freeing up investment,
the concerns of different groups and the collective organizing, anti-corruption, and
current crisis of trust between political civil society organizations from security
opposition forces, on the one hand oversight.
and the state institutions on the other.
20Bibliography
7
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Parliamentary Life in Jordan (1929-1957). the Brotherhood: Playing with Red Lines in
Sharq Press, Nicosia (Cyprus), 1989. Jordan. Al Jazeera Center for Studies, 10
2. Mousa, Suleiman. A Contemporary History February 2014.
of Jordan (June 1967-1995). Ministry of 2. Al-Khawaldeh, Saleh Abdel Fatah. The
Culture, Amman, 2011. Electoral System in Jordan in 2016:
3. Muhafaza, Ali. Restricting Democracy: An Analytical Study. Published on
Jordan from 1989-1999. Center for Arab ResearchGate (author’s page).
Unity Studies, Beirut, 2001.
4. Nuseibeh, Hazem. A Contemporary Reports and News Articles
Political History of Jordan from 1952- 1. “Details on the Session that Brought
1967. Amman, second edition, 1992. Down the Government of Samir al-Rifai in
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in Jordan. Center for Strategic Studies at following link: https://www.zamancom.
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Abu Rumman, Mohammad and Hassan Elections, Political Parties, and Local
Abu Hanieh, The Islamic Solution in Jordan: Administration Laws.” Jordan News
Islamists and Ventures of Democracy and Agency, 30 January 2021.
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21Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq - Democratic Reform in Jordan?
Personal interviews Media Affairs and Communications, 18
1. Jafar Hassan, head of the Politics and February 2021.
Society Institute, 20 February 2021. 4. Sakher Dudin, member of the Jordanian
2. Marwan al-Faouri, founder of Global Senate, 18 February 2021.
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Jordanian Senate, and former Minister of
22About the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq About the author
The Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung is a non - profit organization Muhammad Abu Rumman is a researcher at the
committed to the values of social democracy. It is the Center for Strategic Studies at the University
oldest political foundation in Germany, founded in of Jordan. From 2018 to 2019 he served as
1925 as the political legacy of Friedrich Ebert, the first Minister of Culture and Minister of Youth in
democratically elected German president. the government of the Hashemite Kingdom of
Jordan. He has authored a variety of publications
The goal of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Jordan & Iraq on contemporary matters of religion, politics and
is to promote and encourage democracy, political society. Most of them are available in English
participation, progress toward social justice and and Arabic and can be downloaded from
gender equality. We also contribute to environmental www.fes-jordan.org/publications.
sustainability, peace, and security in the region.International and regional factors Any changes or developments in the The Royal Discussion Papers
have shaped the calculations of democratic path or political reform demonstrate an advanced and deep
Jordanian leaders, who have been process must seriously take the reading of the Jordanian situation, but
preoccupied with political stability as Palestinian-Jordanian demographic until now there has been no roadmap
they grappled with what Jordanian question into account, especially for implementing them gradually
historians have described as “historic given the growing calls from political and through building consensus,
emergencies” for the kingdom. elites on both sides. One side calls for as the king called for. This will
Concerns about political stability the rights to citizenship that it has require overcoming major obstacles,
have taken precedence over political been deprived of, while the other especially the fragmentation of
reform. warns that Jordanian identity is being political parties and the inability to
threatened! build an equivalent space for Islamists
in politics.
For more information on this subject:
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