Joe Berry - 2015 AUSTRALIAN RETAIL EXECUTIVE AWARD - Joe Berry Award
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Born in England, Joe Berry came to Australia in 1919. From a JOE BERRY PROFILE varied career Joe became involved with Claude Fraser, generally known as the father of self-serve groceries in this country. Claude was the founder of BCC (Brisbane Cash & Carry) which was later to become the backbone of the Woolworths growth in the grocery markets. Constantly looking for new ideas, Joe’s quest for information took him on overseas study tours, particularly the United States. He was always looking for modern fresh ideas to implement in the Australian grocery scene. Not only did Joe contribute to the growth and development of BCC, his ideas and innovations dramatically affected the Australian industry as a whole. Many practices taken for granted today, such as the supermarket trolley, were initially developed and trialed in Australia by Joe Berry in the early 1950s. Open-topped refrigeration was first commissioned by Joe Berry along with pre-packed fruit and vegetables and the common “twist-tie”. Joe later developed self-serve wholesale warehouses in conjunction with Tom Tickle from TWD (later QIW). All of these innovations are now commonplace within the industry worldwide. Joe’s involvement in the grocery trade was continued by his son John who, until recently, was a major part of the independent supermarket scene in this country. John talks proudly of his father’s contribution to the industry and it is for this reason that the Joe Berry Awards exist, so that innovation can continue through our young executives. The support of the industry keeps this innovation alive. Having your sponsorship and participation from the young executives in your company will keep the JBA as a premier development program for future leaders. Joe Berry Awards 2015 1
The Joe Berry Award continues to change for the better. The level of entry FOREWORD continues to rise as we work harder to bring forward topics that reflect the current industry issues. This drilling down to issues has been supported by the industry with Nielsen and CitiGroup providing insight and advice to our panel. The submitted essays for 2015 covered all the set topics and show that those who choose to enter the award are both aware of the industry issues and interested in having their say. The concept of this award is to do just that; to bring the future industry leaders to the attention of those who currently own that role. The six essays herein support that concept. As always, the judging panel continues to be an annual must attend day for all of our judges and they come not only to participate with their peers but to observe the growing talent levels within this competitive market. This is also a sought-after role as those participating are moulding the future. The essays on this memory stick should be read and absorbed as current and solid information about our industry. The content is relevant and the foresight shows why these people will be the leaders of the future. Those considering entering the Joe Berry Award for 2016 should use these essays as a guide, to help you write a finals quality essay of your own. The ASMCA, myself as patron and the sponsoring judges all take great pride in presenting these awards and we hope to see them continue to grow and to highlight the future industry executives. We encourage all companies to sponsor and support the awards as it is their young people who will become the industry leaders. We thank Retail World for continuing to publishing these essays and for being a solid supporter of the industry and the Joe Berry Award. Bernie Brookes Joe Berry Awards 2015 1986 Joe Berry Award Winner Joe Berry Award Patron 2
TABLE OF CONTENTS Adam Mourad 4 Woolworths Limited Sarah Phillips 10 Nestlé Alex Goh 19 Woolworths Giulia Joliffe 27 Woolworths Sarah Hughes 38 Coles Marian Girgis 45 Myer Pty Ltd Joe Berry Awards 2015 3
Adam Mourad Woolworths Limited Topic 6: Price Optimisation. Q. Price Deflation is a real problem for retailers and suppliers in Australia. Discounting has escalated and the process of raising prices is difficult to implement. Can dynamic pricing optimisation help? If viable, who will benefit the most from dynamic pricing? Entrant Number: JBA – 15 – 0148 Joe Berry Awards 2015 4
Adam Mourad EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Price deflation is an issue for Australian retailers and it has been further compounded with price discounting. Operating in such an environment has made the process of raising prices difficult to implement. Discussed in this essay is the current environment for retailers and suppliers when faced with trying to improve their top and bottom lines respectively. This essay will introduce dynamic pricing as a possible lever retailers could use to drive growth in their organisations. Dynamic pricing has changed the way in which consumers shop and it is no longer a matter of just where to shop but also when to shop. Dynamic Pricing is relatively new, it’s different and it’s innovative. With the right intelligence software and data analytics in place, all retailers can use Dynamic Pricing – regardless of their size – to compete on items when they need to. Topic 6 – Price Optimisation The theory of Dynamic Pricing (DP) will be introduced as an alternative to the traditional price setting strategy along with how it can help retailers maximise sales and profits in Australia. The local and international retail environment will be analysed from a competitive point of view. This essay will identify several key examples of DP strategies that have allowed organisations to set themselves apart from the competition using DP as a lever for optimisation and growth. Analysis will show that DP can be utilised to combat price deflation by allowing retailers to potentially lift prices to price equilibrium and allow for both price increases and decreases when it is deemed appropriate. Furthermore, research will be provided on the relationship DP has with the trust of consumers. It is important to note that DP strategies are not a mechanism used only to discount prices but more so they utilise price optimisation models as a powerful profit lever to continue to drive business growth as a race to the bottom is not sustainable. In recent years there has been an increase in the amount of data collected on consumer behaviour. Organisations now have the ability to gauge customers’ willingness to pay for their products and are using data analytics to determine what the behavioural effect of price changes are on sales volumes1. Traditional fixed pricing strategies are a convenient model for retailers and suppliers, however it comes with several disadvantages. Fixed pricing can raise costs as pricing is not based on cost efficiencies or optimal prices but more a cost plus strategy. Determining optimum pricing takes time and research, especially when a product is new to the marketplace. Fixed pricing cannot predict important pricing factors such as depreciation nor can it accurately incorporate the effects of demand changing market forces. Fixed pricing could be right for the target market, however it could be inappropriate for the broader customer base2. Retail commentator Patricio Robles suggests that a pricing strategy such as DP cannot work in the retail sector when compared to airline or hotel industry. Offering consumers higher prices in peak periods for airlines and hotels makes sense because the travellers have less flexibility to alter travel plans. Shoppers on the other hand can simply change their shopping habits should retailers implement a DP strategy. Pressure levels are different when comparing perishable to non-perishable items and their sale velocity, however an additional point to consider is that retailers do not want inventory languishing in stores and warehouses3. The application of DP models in to the business environment was an authentic revolution to the traditional concept of price setting4. DP assesses the demand of a product and its supply curve for a specific instance, and then the point of equilibrium is determined at a finer more personal and/or situational level. This is in contrast to the traditional price setting strategy of cost plus5. This allows retailers to use DP models to calculate how demand varies at different price levels. Combined with data on costs and inventory levels allows prices to be recommended that will improve profits. It also allows prices to be tailored for specific customer segments by simulating how targeted customers will respond to price changes with data driven scenarios6. Australia has one of the world’s most concentrated grocery landscapes and is dominated by Coles and Woolworths. Findings from data provided by IBISWorld in figure 1.0 shows that as of 2014 they account for more than 70.7% of the total supermarket revenue raised in Australia7. Joe Berry Awards 2015 6
Adam Mourad Figure 1.0 – Supermarket Major Players Suppliers in Australia can no longer rely on annual price rises to grow and boost profitability. The levels of real household disposable incomes have greatly affected the industry where in periods of low disposable income consumers are more likely to do away with luxury items and only purchase basic products8. Figure 2.0 displays the % change in disposable household incomes with a forecast through to 2020. Historical gradual price rises are a major contributor to pathway created for European and American discounters such as ALDI and Costco to enter into the marketplace and use price as the differentiator to major local retailers using this differentiator to attract the bargain hunting customer. These discount retailers offer a greater range of private- label products cheaper than branded merchandise giving consumers a way to enjoy luxury products without the burden of a high shopping docket9. Figure 2.0 – Real household disposable income forecasts against population growth forecast Coles and Woolworths’ domination of the FMCG environment means suppliers are heavily dependent on these two retailers to sell their products. In recent times this has become challenging for suppliers as the two major retailers have been engaged in a price war where for example both have sold milk at $1 a litre and bread at 85c per loaf10. This places significant cost price pressure on local producers. These pressures coupled with the lower reduced margin at the register make for a difficult unsustainable competitive landscape. In November 2012 the US state of Virginia launched a hugely successful DP strategy on a toll road and called it the 1-495 HOT (high-occupancy toll) lanes. The 1-495 HOT is a 14 mile stretch of road that runs parallel to a toll-free road. The toll-free road is often characterised as having a combination of continuous delays and frustrated motorists. Through the use of ‘big data’ and advanced analytics the state was able to monitor, track, influence traffic flow, and ultimately dynamically adjust pricing to optimise outcomes. When traffic increases and traffic becomes more congested and speed falls to below 45mph, the toll price increases and deters additional motorists from using the road. Once speed increases and traffic becomes less congested the toll price decreases and encourages the more price-sensitive motorists to use the toll road11. Historically prices adjusted gradually over time. With the advent of new technology the era of high-frequency trading was born. Joe Berry Awards 2015 This new landscape gives retailers the ability to shorten the length of time it takes to change a set price to microseconds12. 7
Adam Mourad In 2012 Uber’s Boston team identified a problem where on weekends their network was experiencing a significant spike in unfulfilled driver requests. The root cause was drivers clocking off early just before the weekend party-goers began venturing home. This was causing a supply-demand imbalance which resulted in a raft of unhappy customers. Uber then decided to trial DP in their Boston network, offering drivers more attractive pay rates at times of unfulfilled orders to increase the supply of drivers. The effect was instantaneous; driver availability (supply) at crucial times increased by nearly 80% and eliminated almost 70% of the unfulfilled orders (demand). As a result of the success the Boston branch was able to achieve the organisation decided to implement this DP strategy into the times it found based on its data where demand was materially outstripping supply13. Similar to the toll road strategy, Uber was able to use price increases to temporarily intentionally reduce demand, empowering its customers to decide on the price to value ratio and make the decision accordingly. A key component to the success of DP in retail is Electronic Shelf Labels (ESL). It is simply impossible for retailers to reflect prices in real time without the implementation of an ESL solution into their business. Regular price changes across a wide range of items means retailers need an efficient cost-effective ticketing strategy just to keep pace. Using an ESL solution will give retailers the sophistication and ability to be able to display the right prices at the right time. Price discrimination is described as the practise of charging multiple prices for the same product where the difference in price is not based on different costs but on a difference in demand14. In a theoretical discussion price discrimination within DP strategies ignores customers’ emotional reaction to the price change. Environments where customers have reasonable access to substitutes are environments which retailers operating in cannot ignore the potential for hostile customer reactions15. The relationship between retailers and consumers is a sensitive, fragile relationship. It is developed over sustained periods of time and trust should be a critical component in the concept of DP. Internet retail has increased the criticality of trust between retailers and consumers, that there is almost non-existent human contact between customers and internet retailer’s significantly adds to the fragility of the relationship retailers have with consumers16. In order to mitigate the risks that are associated with customer perception and DP, companies could start with a small pilot with limited selections of products that are identified as having low criticality and assess their customer bases acceptance and readiness for such a paradigm shift. Using the feedback gained the strategy can then be managed and expanded into a wider range of low criticality products or venture into a product range with high criticality and reassess17. Implementing DP into retail takes a level of customer intimacy not previously available and rarely used in Australia due to a lack of data and analytics. However, this is changing and the inception of ‘big data’ coupled with predicative analysis, organisations can now better understand their customers and assess the effect DP could have on their products, sales, profits and the relationship between retailer and consumer18. The key stakeholders of DP strategies are suppliers, retailers and consumers and these benefits form the pillars behind such strategies. DP gives suppliers the ability to grow their net prices without necessarily raising prices. Many suppliers, even with the information available today, still set prices using simplistic models for price elasticity without identifying the need to set prices strategically. Perhaps the best example of this is Coca-Cola Amatil, who through rigorous research found that convenience store customers were more likely to pay a higher price for a bottle should cans be unavailable, then using this information to ensure it has the right products in the right channels. Coca-Cola per litre prices differ significantly depending on the place of purchase. Up to $7 per litre from a convenience store as opposed to sub $2 per litre in a supermarket, successfully using DP to optimise their pricing through average weight of prices across their portfolio19. DP gives retailers the ability to test the true price elasticity on products and use this elasticity to positively impact revenue and profit. It creates a powerful tool for achieving a balance between supply and demand, this balance allows for retailers to maximise sales and profits when equilibrium is achieved as opposed to under- or over-pricing an item. Perhaps an equally significant benefit to retailers is the business essential real-time data concerning market conditions at play, which leads to the Joe Berry Awards 2015 ability to fine-tune pricing strategies more efficiently but effectively offers warning signals when there is a shift in demand20. 8
Adam Mourad The benefit to consumers is being offered the right price for the item at the right time based on all market forces. This will also reduce time spent in the buying cycle, removing their need to further research price before purchasing. The Good Guys historically have been known to negotiate with consumers based on a pay cash pay less strategy – this was an effective drawcard until the smartphone era began and customers could receive on the spot up-to-date competition pricing and then proceed to negotiate. The Good Guys now employ a team in Melbourne who operate price intelligence software performing that dynamically prices their goods at the most up-to-date lowest price at the point of purchase. In conclusion, DP is an important strategy which can boost competitiveness and maximise overall growth potential. The use of advanced analytics allows retailers to detect competitor pricing movements, adjust accordingly, and reduce time-to-market for these adjustments, especially when combined with advanced technologies such as digital ticketing. Perhaps a more important feature of DP is its ability to predict when market conditions are right for price increases taking into account complex factors such as reputational risk and short-term vs long-term gain. DP is a strategy that is an industry game changer. Suppliers benefit through retailers selling stock more efficiently without the build of inventory that can lead to more cost efficiencies and DP can also be used as a mechanism to lift the average weight of price across a portfolio maximising their revenue. Consumers can be confident that they are being charged the fairest price in the marketplace based on all the dynamics built into determining the retail price. REFERENCES 1. M oritz Fleischmann, Joseph M Hall & David F Pyke 2004, “Smart Pricing”, MIT Sloan Management Review, vol. 45, no. 2, pp. 9. 2. Phillips, Robert. “Pricing and Revenue Optimisation”. Stanford Business Books, 2005. 3. Nagle, Thomas T. and John Hogan. “The Strategy and Tactics of Pricing: A Guide to Growing More Profitably”. 5th ed. Prentice Hall, 2010. 4. Indre Deksnyte, Zigmas Lydeka & Violeta Pukeliene 2014, “Dynamic price as a bargaining result for revenue maximization in retail”, Ekonomika, vol. 93, no. 3, pp. 67. 5. Troy Hiltbrand 2013, “Dynamic Pricing: The Future of Customer-Centric Retail”, Data Warehousing Institute, Seattle. 6. Ibid. 7. Brooke Tonkin, 2015, “Supermarkets and Grocery Stores in Australia”, IBISWorld Industry report G4111 8. Brooke Tonkin, 2015, “Supermarkets and Grocery Stores in Australia”, IBISWorld Industry report G4111 9. Ibid. 10. Sophie Langley, 2014, “Woolworths bread price war raises more concerns”, Ausfood News. 11. Troy Hiltbrand 2013, “Dynamic Pricing: The Future of Customer-Centric Retail”, Data Warehousing Institute, Seattle. 12. Ibid. 13. Ray Gurley, 2014, “A Deeper Look at Ubers Dynamic Pricing Model”, Above the Crowd. 14. Kathleen Carrot & Dennis Coates, 1999, “Teaching Price Discrimination: Some Clarification”, Southern Economic Journal, 1999, vol. 66, issue 2, pages 466-480. 15. Garbarino, E. & Lee, O.F. 2003, “Dynamic pricing in Internet retail: effects on consumer trust”, Psychology & Marketing, vol. 20, no. 6, pp. 495-513. 16. Ibid. 17. Troy Hiltbrand 2013, “Dynamic Pricing: The Future of Customer-Centric Retail”, Data Warehousing Institute, Seattle. 18. Troy Hiltbrand 2013, “Dynamic Pricing: The Future of Customer-Centric Retail”, Data Warehousing Institute, Seattle. 19. David Zehner and Melanie Sanders, 2015, “The New Reality for Grocery Suppliers in Australia”, Bain & Company. 20. Harri Daniel, 2011, “The Benefits of Dynamic Pricing, the Benefits of Everything”. benefitof.net/benefits-of-dynamic-pricing/. Joe Berry Awards 2015 9
Sarah Phillips Nestlé, Rhodes, Sydney Topic 1: The Emergence of Convenience. Q. Globally larger format stores, eg, hypermarkets, and department stores, are losing market share and convenience stores are winning share. Will the same trends emerge in Australia? What effect will it have on current market conditions? Entrant Number: JBA-15-0351 Joe Berry Awards 2015 10
Sarah Phillips TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 12 Introduction 12 Changing Shopper Needs 13 Revised Regulation and Increased Harmonisation 14 Multichannel Synergies to Drive Economies of Scale 14 Perceptions at a premium: A barrier for growth 16 Conclusion 17 References 18 Joe Berry Awards 2015 11
Sarah Phillips EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Growth of the convenience channel will increase, with shoppers leading the change. The baby boomers and millennials display more similarity in their shopping behaviours and preferences than first meets the eye. While their behaviours shift as they age and urbanise, these behaviours in turn will impact their demands for retail. Global growth trends will be replicated in Australia as we see similar demographic changes influencing shopper behaviours and needs. The extent of that growth will hinge on how quickly retailers and suppliers tap into the convenience opportunity and overcome existing barriers. This essay looks at the impact that two key demographic groups will have on convenience retailing, subsequent effects on the Australian retail market dynamics (including major players) and barriers to be addressed for growth to occur. INTRODUCTION Growth of the convenience channel in Australia is already materialising and under the right conditions could flourish. Given shifting shopper behaviours and the future reality there will be an even more prominent difference in shopping habits as a result of wider demographic changes. To a shopper, convenience can be defined as the locality and accessibility of products and services which meet a present need. As a channel, it is described by outlets categorised by the following criteria as seen in figure 121. Figure 1 Joe Berry Awards 2015 In markets such as the UK and USA, where this channel has gained sizable share over the last 10 years from the hypermarkets and large stores, infrastructure is well positioned and set up to capture this growth in demand for shopper convenience. 12
Sarah Phillips Consumers are shopping more frequently and are looking for outlets that are within close proximity as their basket size is smaller on each trip. As the shopper needs change the retail sector must ensure that there are offers differentiated and available to meet them. As the consumer demand for retail shifts towards more convenient retailing in Australia, there is a sizable growth opportunity for the channel. Is the Australian market in a position to capitalise on this and at what cost? CHANGING SHOPPER NEEDS The global growth of convenience and the opportunities in Australia are consumer led. Two major demographic changes will have most influence on the channel in the coming years: 1. The ageing population 2. Increased urbanisation; growth of the ‘millennials’ (Consumers aged 18-34)22 Increased longevity, the post-war baby boom and decreased fertility rates have all led to an upwards shift in the age structure. The ABS projected the 65-84 group would grow on average 2.7% per year to 2011, and then accelerate to 3.5% per year to four million in 202223. This major demographic change will impact shopping behaviour as older shoppers will be less mobile, occupy smaller households and will place much greater importance on accessibility to local retail, infrastructure and services; particularly health and aged care. Not only is the size of this group set to accelerate in the short/medium term before declining but they will be very valuable shoppers. In the UK it is expected that two-thirds of retail spending growth will come from shoppers aged 55+ by 203024. The second notable demographic shift is urbanisation which is resulting in a global household structure change. Millennial consumers are of growing importance as they slowly overtake baby boomers in terms of size25. Greater urbanisation is resulting in smaller households and families. Single person households are expected to grow by 11%, accounting for 15.3% of households globally by 201726. A direct correlation can be seen between the sustained expansion of convenience stores, the rise in urbanisation and 1-2 person households. Japan, UK and China are key examples. Figure 2 shows the growth in urbanisation from 2005-13. Australia shows a positive trajectory, growing steadily from 2005 (88%) to 2013 (89.2%)27. Figure 2 – Urban population (% of total) Joe Berry Awards 2015 13
Sarah Phillips Urbanisation and household size are important factors for retailers to consider. They directly impact on the spending/saving patterns of shoppers and will influence purchasing power and preferences. Gradually, both the ageing population and the millennials will form smaller households, look to shop locally, more frequently and will purchase less on each trip. The consumer profile for both groups is built on convenience. For the full growth potential to be attained the market must be set up to meet the needs of these consumers. REVISED REGULATION AND INCREASED HARMONISATION Significant investment is required from retailers and suppliers to create more relevant retail propositions in Australia. Deregulation and standardisation of current planning laws is required to enable increased competition and a more productive sector. Victoria is an example of reduced regulation levels, removal of planning restrictions and increased supply of land for retail development. As a result, the state now has the most flexible planning system in Australia. This is an approach that all states should follow; ‘identify different types of centres and precincts by their role in the broader economy and their unique qualities as opposed to solely their scale and geographical location.’28 More flexible planning laws allow retailers to position infrastructure to better suit consumer needs. If planning laws allow, an initial outlay of capital investment will provide retailers with the ability to capitalise on the greatest future footfall opportunity. The relatively concentrated grocery market in Australia may limit the levels of investment and competitive appetite seen in other markets and hinder the speed at which the sector’s infrastructure and supply chain will develop to meet the needs of the channel. Acquisitions and rebranding of existing stores with known and trusted banners is potentially a more cost-effective route for larger retailers to strengthen their position in the market. Incentives to join the banner could be implemented. Both retailers and suppliers must assess existing processes and infrastructure. Smaller stores have less shelf space, less room to store goods and high sales volatility at peak times. Distribution, delivery requirements (order quantity/ vehicle size/ frequency) and supplier forecasting by channel will need to be reviewed as this channel and the shopper demand increases. Current planning is geared to the needs of larger format stores, a barrier that will limit future expansion. Separate planning and collaboration with suppliers is crucial if retailers are to maximise growth in this channel. Australia requires more relevant planning regulations for convenience as the future society evolves. Current planning laws and zoning are limiting opportunities outside of major shopping centres. Retailers require the ability to provide more relevant propositions to meet the changing shopper needs and behaviours. MULTICHANNEL SYNERGIES TO DRIVE ECONOMIES OF SCALE Shoppers at both ends of the spectrum are savvy. The recession has changed the behaviour of the generation Y/millennial urbanites and the ageing population. The increased demand for convenience and value has led shoppers to use multichannel outlets. The Australian retail market is unique with its dominant duopoly. The ability for the convenience channel to expand is somewhat challenged by supply chain inefficiencies, higher utility/labour costs, and legislative changes; all driving up the cost to serve. Major retailers will be required to leverage their known and trusted banners to lead change in the retail market. Access to capital investment along with their synergies through multichannel retailing and economies of scale will play an integral role in changing the retail landscape. Joe Berry Awards 2015 The growth by channel in the UK market, figure 329, shows that over the next four years, despite a decline in the use of hyper and supermarkets, as convenience and multichannel retailing grows these more traditional stores will still hold a significant position in the market. 14
Sarah Phillips Figure 3 – UK Channel Growth An IGD survey found that in 2016-17 56% of the respondents would like to use five or more channels compared to 34% currently, if they are available locally30. Suppliers and retailers must start looking at the longer-term impact of multichannel retailing on the supply chain. Currently, there is a significant difference in attitude and approach from retailers and manufacturers coming out of a more advanced multichannel market. 51% of retailers in the UK state that they are ready and well prepared for multichannel in comparison to only 23% of surveyed manufacturers31. The higher cost to serve relative to alternative channels is a barrier limiting expansion of convenience. Online provides an alternate way of shopping for the elderly, less mobile consumers, while reducing the reliance on car usage and big store formats. Click and collect should be a strategic focus for convenience stores as this service requires minimal overheads, appeals to our key changing demographic groups by broadening the available product range and reduces a retail outlet’s cost to serve. While the demand for home delivery decreases, the UK has seen an increase in the use of click-and-collect for online shopping. (Figure 432) This service meets the shopper need for value and convenience as they can collect shopping in their own time with no collection fees. Figure 4 – Online Shopping Joe Berry Awards 2015 15
Sarah Phillips Opportunities also exist in the Australian market for pure-play retailers to enter. This would benefit independent/franchise retailers with existing stores to achieve higher margins and e-commerce expertise whilst increasing competition in multi-channel retailing. As the population ages and shoppers look to use more channels, existing petrol and convenience stores will play a major role in the development of the traditional convenience channel. Currently the proportion of cars in Australia is much greater than other developed markets. (Figure 533) The P&C store network should operate simultaneously with traditional convenience in Australia, creating multichannel synergies and shopper benefits through click and collect as shopper missions overlap. Figure 5 – Passenger cars (per 1,000 people) There is a long-term growth opportunity for retailers in multichannel retailing. Suppliers will need to review their supply chain against significant impacts if retailers look to establish separate channel supply chains. Moving forward, an understanding of and strategy for multichannel retailing is crucial due to the high appeal for both key demographic groups. PERCEPTIONS AT A PREMIUM: A BARRIER FOR GROWTH Presently, one of the largest barriers to unlocking growth of convenience is the price perception and structure of the channel. As shoppers use multiple channels and compare pricing, this previous acceptance of price premiums for convenience presents a barrier to increased penetration. Convenience outlets must provide better value in-store if they are to change the existing inflated price perception. With large-scale advertising investment having the most impact in communicating value for the channel to shoppers, multichannel retailers will need to lead initiatives on pricing. Consistent messaging and promotional activity under the same banner improves trust with shoppers, credibility and loyalty to the retailer. This is an opportunity that could be driven by the supplier community providing price-marked goods at point of manufacture. Joe Berry Awards 2015 Private label (PL) presents another key initiative for improved price perception. Led by banners with established product offerings in their large-store formats, these products promote value, choice and will, in turn, attract more shoppers to the channel. 16
Sarah Phillips In 2014 57%, (+5%, 2013), believe PL products to be of better value for money than alternative brands34. As the product quality and branding of PL is heightened, the desire for value and acceptance of the PL continues to increase. In the UK, Sainsbury and Tesco have proportionately similar ranges of PL in convenience to those in super/hypermarkets; often including value and premium tiers to provide choice and trade-up shoppers within PL. In Carrefour express stores, PL accounts for 35-40% of their total offer35. With an already established supply chain, the grocers can list higher margin PL products to improve the cost-to-serve in convenience while improving the price positioning of the channel and meeting the needs of the value shopper. Price-marked goods are also a lever for both bannered multi-site and independent retailers to use to achieve growth. Not currently prevalent in the Australian market, this lever enables independent retailers to compete with the grocers and multichannel retailers by creating trust and reassurance with shoppers. An example can be seen in figure 636: Figure 6 – Price-Marked Goods Suppliers should look at this avenue for independent retailers and provide them with solutions tailored to their channel. Overcoming the premium price stigma attached to convenience will enable increased penetration and maximum growth of the channel. CONCLUSION: Convenience stores will become increasingly pertinent in the coming years as we see a shift in shopping behaviours and household size; trends recently visible overseas. Retail accessibility and local infrastructure will be fundamental for consumers. Unlocking and maximising growth will require support from both retailers and manufacturers for these changing demographic needs. The major retailers will need to lead with a louder voice, greater reach and access to more sizable investment. Australia will see growth of the convenience channel similar to overseas but some unique traits will mean that the proportionate growth opportunity versus other markets will not be as sizable. Population density, existing urbanisation levels, planning laws and price perception will all hinder the size of potential growth. By unlocking these barriers a growth opportunity does exist. Convenience; demanded by consumers, facilitated by retailers and manufacturers, enjoyed by shoppers. Joe Berry Awards 2015 17
Sarah Phillips REFERENCES 21. IGD (2015), Convenience retailing factsheet, www.igd.com/our-expertise/Retail/Convenience/3369/Convenience-Retailing- Market-Overview/, 14/2/2015. 22. Horovitz, B, (2015), “Millennials crave convenience stores most of all”, USA Today, viewed 19/2/2015, www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/02/04/millennials-convenience-stores-fast-food-restaurants/22872685. 23. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2009), “Future population growth and ageing, ABS Social trends”,18/2/2015, http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/4102.0Main+Features10March%202009. 24. KPMG/Ipsos Retail Think Tank (2013), “How will demographic trends affect the retail sector?”, KPMG, 14/2/2015 www.kpmg.com/uk/en/issuesandinsights/articlespublications/newsreleases/pages/how-will-demographic-trend. 25. Passport (2013), “Downsizing Globally: The impact of changing household structure on global consumer markets”, Euromonitor International. 26. Ibid. 27. World Bank (n.d), “United Nations-World Urbanisation Prospects”,19/2/2015, data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL. IN.ZS/countries/1W-AU-GB-US-DE-JP-CN?display=graph. 28. Kelly, P. (2014). “Competition policy review”: Issues Paper, Large Format Retail Association (LFRA), competitionpolicyreview.gov.au/files/2014/12/Large_Format_Retail_Association.pdf , 11/12/2014. 29. Gladding, N, (2014), “UK grocery: Market and channel forecasts 2014-2019”. IGD Retail, retailanalysis.igd.com/Hub. aspx?id=61&tid=10, 20/2/2014. 30. Jones, R. (2014). “Multichannel supply chains- Part 1: Get your organisation ready”, IGD Supply chain, 11/12/2014, supplychainanalysis.igd.com/Hub.aspx?id=20&tid=6&fid=12. 31. Ibid. 32. Henry, V. (n.d). “Click and Collect Convenience”, retrieved 14/2/2015, IGD Shoppervista: www.igd.com/our-expertise/ Shopper-Insight/Channels-and-In-store/24469/Click--collect-convenience/. 33. International Road Federation: “World Road Statistics and data files”. (n.d). Retrieved 19/2/2015, World Bank: data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.PCAR.P3/countries/1W-AU-GB-US-DE-JP?display=graph. 34. Freedman, M. (2014). “Private label and brands in convenience stores”. Retrieved 11/12/2014, IGD ShopperVista: shoppervista.igd.com/Hub.aspx?id=35&tid=4&rptid=279. 35. Euromonitor International (2011), “Convenience Retailing: Market drivers challenges and opportunities”, Passport: Euromonitor: www.euromonitor.com/convenience-retailing-market-drivers-challenges-and-opportunities/report, 14/2/2015. 36. Pepsico, (2012), “Quids in with Walkers £1 share bags”, retrieved 23/2/2015, www.pepsico.co.uk/trade-news/quids-in-with- walkers-1-share-bags. Joe Berry Awards 2015 18
Alex Goh Woolworths Topic 1: The Emergence of Convenience. Q. Globally larger format stores, eg, hypermarkets and department stores, are losing market share and convenience stores are winning share. Will the same trends emerge in Australia? What effect will it have on current market conditions? Entrant Number: JBA-15-0064 Joe Berry Awards 2015 19
Alex Goh TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 21 Introduction: What is a Convenience Store? 21 Are the Same Trends Emerging in Australia? 22 Why are Convenience Stores (in the Current Format and Operating Model) Not a Commercially Attractive Proposition? 22 The Way Forward: Key Strategies to Make ‘Convenience’ Work 24 Conclusion 26 References 26 Joe Berry Awards 2015 20
Alex Goh EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Traditional grocers that fail to fully understand what ‘convenience’ is from the perspective of the customer of today will most certainly be left behind in the current highly competitive landscape. The true challenge for grocers is not how quickly new-format convenience stores can be rolled out, but how quickly can they reorientate the business to focus on the customer. Although there are varying definitions of a convenience store, there is a consistent trend that is emerging. Traditional grocers globally are re-prioritising their focus on convenience stores. This is driven by the entrance of new competitors which have redefined the ‘convenience’ that customers of today are demanding: greater flexibility, close proximity, hassle-free, tailored range. However, traditional grocers are still struggling to find a suitable convenience format and operating model that makes commercial sense because: • Convenience stores in the current format do not attract mainstream grocery customers. • The rollout of convenience stores cannot be done in isolation. • A change in mindset is required to compete effectively in ‘convenience’. To deal with the emergence of ‘convenience’, this essay proposes that Australian grocers adopt the following strategies: • Redefine the meaning of a convenience format store within the framework of a geographically based omnichannel strategy. • Realign success measures to be based on a ‘convenience’ mindset. • Change buying and merchandising practices to give customers more of what they want. INTRODUCTION: WHAT IS A CONVENIENCE STORE? The definition of a convenience store will vary depending on the country, type of retailer and who you ask. This essay will focus on the emergence of convenience in the grocery industry. However, the lessons are equally as applicable to other retailers in Australia. Typically, a convenience store is a small store, located close to where people live and work, and stocked with a condensed range of everyday products. In Australia, convenience stores include milk bars, corner stores or stores adjacent to petrol stations37. Figure 1 – Example of convenience stores in Australia GLOBAL TREND TOWARDS CONVENIENCE STORES There is a clear trend that is emerging globally: sales from large-format stores, once favoured by traditional grocers, are in decline38,39. Joe Berry Awards 2015 21
Alex Goh Figure 2 – Sales of large-format stores are in decline in the UK39 As such, traditional grocers like Walmart and Tesco are redirecting their strategic priorities towards rolling-out new-format convenience stores38,40. This is because of the increasing levels of competition, especially against new online-only competitors, discounters, specialty premium grocers and even competitors from other industries. For example, in the US, large technology companies like Google and Amazon are entering the grocery industry41. In the UK, the big four grocers (Tesco, Sainsbury, Asda, Morrisons) are being “squeezed in the middle” by new competitors from all sides42. The entrance of new competitors has changed what the customers of today value, which is to have a more convenient shopping experience (eg. greater flexibility, close proximity, hassle-free, tailored range). In response, traditional grocers are focused on building new-format convenience stores to provide the level of ‘convenience’ that customers are demanding. ARE THE SAME TRENDS EMERGING IN AUSTRALIA? The same trends experienced globally are becoming evident in Australia. New online-only competitors like Aussie Farmers Direct are enticing customers with home delivery of groceries. There is even speculation that Amazon is preparing to enter the Australian grocery industry through its Amazon Fresh grocery delivery business43. Global discounters like ALDI and Costco are significantly increasing their market share. To defend their market share, Australian grocers will need to offer greater ‘convenience’ to the customer. In addition, there has been a profound shift in the Australian lifestyle over the last 25 years44. Australians are now choosing to live in high density inner-city urban areas close to work, shops, transport and community facilities45. This is further evidence that Australians are demanding greater ‘convenience’ in their everyday lives, which is permeating to the way they shop. Therefore, the focus on growing new format convenience stores in Australia is vital. In fact, there are increasingly frequent reports of Coles and Woolworths acquiring 200-400sqm sites to trial new-format convenience stores in Sydney and Melbourne CBD46. However, to successfully offer ‘convenience’ to customers, Australian grocers will need to create a commercially viable preposition. WHY ARE CONVENIENCE STORES (IN THE CURRENT FORMAT AND OPERATING MODEL) NOT A COMMERCIALLY ATTRACTIVE PROPOSITION? Joe Berry Awards 2015 Globally, traditional grocers are still struggling to find a suitable convenience format and operating model that makes commercial sense. Walmart has been trialling multiple new-format convenience stores over the years in the hope of being able to “zero in on what works and what doesn’t”39. There are several reasons why traditional grocers are still struggling to make a success of convenience stores: 22
Alex Goh • Convenience stores in the current format do not attract mainstream grocery customers Issue: The current format of a typical convenience store is designed to attract a convenience store customer. This is skewed towards men47, younger age groups48, and from Asian or Middle Eastern descent48. Given the small store size, these stores hold a limited range of products and usually charge higher prices. However, women are still the primary shoppers at grocery stores, representing over 64% of all grocery shopping trips48. Solution: Therefore, for convenience stores to cater to the needs of mainstream grocery customers, the format of these stores would need to be significantly different from the format of convenience stores as we recognise them today. Changes to the product ranging, pricing and even the store layout would be necessary. • Success cannot just be achieved by rolling-out convenience stores in isolation Issue: Customers are demanding greater levels of ‘convenience’ than ever before. However, they are not demanding just convenience stores. Customers are increasingly doing more of their shopping online from any device (mobile, tablet, computer), at anytime and anyplace. In addition, customers are becoming more accustomed to a variety of home delivery and collection options. Even older Australians (65+ years) are increasingly going online to shop, with the majority of their spending going to grocery and liquor (28% of their total online spending)49. Solution: To effectively address the concept of ‘convenience’ for the customer of today, traditional grocers need to adopt a more holistic change to the strategy and operating model of the entire business. The success of rolling out new format convenience stores will be limited if it is not complemented by ‘convenience’ online channels. • Many grocers do not currently have the right mindset to compete effectively in ‘convenience’ Issue: It is quite difficult for traditional grocers to comprehend a world of convenience stores when it is against the principle of volume and efficiency. Traditional grocers who have come to dominate the current landscape had succeeded in the past because they were focused on providing customers with reliable products and services at competitive prices while maximising the efficiency of the full supply chain (ie, ‘Operational Excellence’)50. Solution: However, to succeed in the new ‘convenience’ paradigm, traditional grocers need to completely change their mindset to develop the discipline of delivering superior ‘Customer Intimacy’50. Grocers that excel in ‘Customer Intimacy’ are focused on building long-term customer loyalty, tailoring their product offerings and having the operational flexibility to provide the reach that customers are demanding (through more convenient locations and access to multiple channels)50. Figure 3 provides an illustration of the disciplines discussed, which is consistent with Treacy and Wiersema’s “Value-Discipline Model” first published in the Harvard Business Review. Figure 3 – Treacy and Wiersema’s Value-Discipline Model for traditional grocers, now and in the future50 Joe Berry Awards 2015 23
Alex Goh THE WAY FORWARD: KEY STRATEGIES TO MAKE ‘CONVENIENCE’ WORK To effectively deal with the emergence of ‘convenience’, Australian grocers need to start adopting the following strategies: • Redefine the meaning of a convenience format store within the framework of a geographically based omnichannel strategy There is definitely a role for convenience stores in the current landscape. These stores are necessary to provide customers with access to stores in convenient locations. However, the format will need to be different to the format of a traditional convenience store as we recognise it today. There will have to be a number of new convenience store formats, depending on where the stores are located. For example, convenience stores in CBD locations would have a café, hot food counter and a variety of other food- to-go options to cater to office workers. On the other hand, convenience stores in suburban locations would be equipped with 24-hour click and collect lockers and ‘automated convenience store’ facilities for emergency top-up purchases. Figure 4 – Example of 24-hour click and collect lockers and ‘automated convenience store’ facilities In addition, grocers need to develop a fully integrated geographically based omnichannel strategy to achieve the level of ‘convenience’ that customers are demanding. A strategy where ‘convenience’ online channels (eg, home delivery, click and collect) would complement a network of traditional and convenience store formats to meet the specific needs of customers in a geographical area. Figure 5 provides an example of how the omnichannel strategy can be implemented in the northern suburbs of Sydney to give customers a fully integrated and truly convenient shopping experience. Figure 5 – Example of an omnichannel strategy in the northern suburbs of Sydney Joe Berry Awards 2015 24
Alex Goh • Realign success measures to be based on a ‘convenience’ mindset To succeed in ‘convenience’, grocers need to change their success measures to one that is customer-centric (see figure 6 for examples). This will ensure that grocers focus their efforts on providing to customers an engaging and convenient shopping experience across all channels. The aim should be on maximising the overall share of a customer’s wallet. A siloed approach to managing the performance of stores individually (often in competition against each other) will prevent grocers from embracing a fully integrated omnichannel strategy. Therefore, by realigning success measures to be focused on the customer, grocers will start managing all stores (and channels) within a geographical area as one entity. Only one store manager would be required for a cluster of stores to ensure that there are constant synergies among stores. Grocers will be focused on increasing the lifetime value of a customer in that geographical area (eg, by retaining loyal customers and encouraging more repeat purchases across the entire network), instead of basing decisions purely on the amount customers spend at any one store or channel. Figure 6 – Example of customer-centric success measures necessary to succeed in a world of ‘convenience’ • Change buying and merchandising practices to give customers more of what they want Many grocers still adopt a buying and ranging strategy that is based on product type and supply. For example, the store layout for most grocers is still based on product-based categories, where cereals are located in a different aisle from milk. Instead, to successfully deliver ‘convenience’ for customers, grocers need to be able to tailor their product offerings based on the specific needs of customers in the locality and across formats. Initially, grocers will need to identify the customer segments in the locality. Then, buying and ranging decisions should be tailored to each of the customer segments. Products that meet the needs of one customer segment may not meet the needs of other segments. Any decisions on ranging, pricing and even promotional activities should be based on improving one of the customer-centric success measures (see figure 7 for examples), with the aim of ultimately providing customers with more of what they want. Joe Berry Awards 2015 25
Alex Goh Figure 7 – Example of new customer-centric KPIs by customer segments for buying and merchandising CONCLUSION: The emergence of ‘convenience’ is definitely a major challenge to traditional grocers globally. The solution is not to blindly roll out as many new format convenience stores as quickly as possible. As pointed out by Woolworths’ CEO Grant O’Brien at a business leaders’ forum, “It’s a fact that a focus on efficiency and operational excellence can often relegate the customer to a lower priority”51. The solution to the emergence of ‘convenience’ is “to reorientate the business to the customer”51. Grocers that fail to fully understand what ‘convenience’ is from the perspective of the customer of today will most certainly be left behind in the current, highly competitive, landscape. REFERENCES 37. K. Carey. “Convenience stores in Australia, a revolution and more evolution”. 30 Oct 2012. Australian Food News. 38. K. Souza. “Wal-mart eager to test convenience store model”. The City Wire. US. 21 Nov 2013. 39. K. Jefford. “ALDI and Lidl to grab more sales from supermarket stores”. City AM. 21 Jan 2015. [Online] Available from: www.cityam.com/1404175038/discounters-grab-more-sales-superstores [Accessed 21 Jan 2015]. 40. R. Hegarty. “Tesco franchise for indie c-store ‘will be a game changer’”. The Grocer. UK. 6 Apr 2013, p4. 41. S. Langley. “Online giants go head-on into online groceries”. 8 Jul 2013. Australian Food News. 42. Barclays. “The battle for supermarket supremacy”. Barclays. 3 Nov 2013. [Online] Available from: wealth.barclays.com/en_gb/ smartinvestor/investing-ideas/battle-for-supermarket-supremacy [Accessed 21 Feb 2015]. 43. A. Heber. “If This Job Ad Is Anything To Go By, Amazon Could Be Expanding Its Home-Delivered Grocery Service Into Australia”. Business Insider. 8 Sep 2014. 44. B. Salt. “Woolworths Trolley Trends”. Prepared by KPMG. 28 Aug 2013. 45. P. Strang, C. Mead. “Changing cities, changing modes – transport choices for the 21st century”. Presented at the Australian Institute of Traffic Planning and Management National Conference, Aug 2013. GTA Consultants. 46. C. Cummins, J. Sprague. “Woolworths, Coles to take on convenience stores”. Sydney Morning Herald. 6 Oct 2014. 47. S. Langley. “More men pushing shopping carts, but are brands and retailers adapting?” 5 May 2014. Australian Food News. 48. K. Conomos. “Neilsen 2012 convenience outlook”. Dec 2011/Jan 2012. C&I Magazine. 49. NAB Online Retail Sales Index, “In depth report – October 2014”. Published on 3 Dec 2014. National Australia Bank. Joe Berry Awards 2015 50. The Enterprise Advocates. “The Tracey & Wiersema Value Discipline Model – Part 1”. 22 Feb 2012. [Online] Available from: www.enterprise-advocate.com/2012/02/the-tracey-wiersema-value-discipline-model-part-1/ [Accessed 21 Feb 2015]. 51. G. O’Brien. Media Release: “Grant O’Brien’s speech to the QUT business leaders forum”. Woolworths. 21 Feb 2013. 26
Giulia Joliffe Woolworths Topic 4: Staff Incentives to Build Service. Q. How can Australian retailers implement a staff incentive scheme to improve service? What incentive is used overseas? How should Australian retailers manage the high base-pay rate in this country? What should be the key performance indicators (KPI) for staff? Entrant Number: JBA-15-0297 Joe Berry Awards 2015 27
Giulia Joliffe TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 29 Introduction: A service renaissance 29 Service incentives in perspective 29 A spotlight on overseas incentive programs: 30 Macy’s: ‘Everyday Magic’ 30 Marks & Spencer: ‘Spotlight’ 30 Building an effective staff incentive program 31 Conclusion 35 References 35 Joe Berry Awards 2015 28
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