Emerging from the political crisis in Belarus: with or without the intervention of external actors? - La Fondation Robert Schuman
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POLICY POLICY
PAPER
PAPER
European issues
n°573 Emerging from the political crisis
6 October 2020
th
in Belarus:
with or without the intervention of
Ekaterina PIERSON-LYZHINA
external actors?
The protests against Belarusian President Alyaksandr The elimination of potential opposition candidates,
Lukashenka, which have continued beyond the August blogger Siarhei Tsihanouski, banker Viktar Babaryka,
9 presidential election, have been surprising in terms both arrested, and the former manager of the Minsk
of their scale and level of politicization. The protest high tech park, Valery Tsapkala, whose signatures,
promises to be long-lasting bringing together people collected to stand as a candidate, were invalidated
of all ages and professions, but the authorities are by the Central Electoral Commission, led to the
refusing to recognize it and are not satisfying any of unification of the electorate around Sviatlana
its demands: to organize new this time democratic Tsihanouskaya - a 37-year-old housewife and trained
elections, to stop repression, to release detainees and English teacher, who decided to run for president
political prisoners, to investigate crimes committed instead of her husband after his arrest. She was
by the representatives of law enforcement agencies. able to register her candidacy, which did not seem
Quite the opposite is happening: the crackdown threatening for the incumbent president, who declared
orchestrated by Lukashenka’s regime, after a certain that "the presidential post is not made for a woman".
lull between August 12 and 16, is intensifying with Taking advantage of this opportunity, Sviatlana
hundreds of arrests per day, the repression against Tsihanouskaya not only proved herself capable of
the emerging leaders and journalists (from the private speaking in front of the crowds during the agitation
media) who report the facts. What are the scenarios rallies,[1] but also of taking strategic decisions like
of the development of this crisis which seems to forming a feminine trio by joining forces with Maryya
have reached an impasse? Can Belarus emerge from Kalesnikava and Veranika Tsapkala - one representing
it without resorting to foreign mediation? What role the election camp of Viktar Babaryka and the other
could the European Union play? the wife of Valery Tsapkala.
Repression of all opposition voices has been consistent
THE BELARUSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION since the start of the election[2] with the limitation or
AS A CATALYST FOR THE POLITICISATION OF prohibition of rallies, the arrests of members of the
THE POPULATION teams of the opposition candidates, of journalists
from private media broadcasting the images of public
To the surprise of the Belarusian authorities and the gatherings in favour of alternative candidates. These
international community, the presidential election of events have largely contributed to strengthening
August 9, 2020 did not end as planned. Although it the feeling of indignation among the population.
[1]Ekaterina Pierson-Lyzhina,
« Bélarus : après la mobilisation, took place during the holidays and in the context of The authorities, apparently aware of Alyaksandr
qu’attendre du lendemain
the coronavirus pandemic, it revealed and amplified Lukashenka's declining popularity, organised only
électoral ? », Regard sur l’Est, 9
August 2020. an unprecedented politicisation of the Belarusian a few rallies in his favour and mostly relied on the
[2]Ekaterina Pierson-Lyzhina,
population, which rallied around the idea of voting support of the security forces. Alyaksandr Lukashenka
« Bélarus : une campagne
présidentielle pas comme les "for anyone else but Alyaksandr Lukashenka", who thus met with several law enforcement units in order
autres », Regard sur l’Est, 22
June 2020.
has been in power for 26 years. to ascertain their loyalty.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°573 / 6TH OCTOBER 2020Emerging from the political crisis in Belarus:
with or without the intervention of external actors?
"MY VOTE HAS BEEN STOLEN” gathered peacefully in the centres of many Belarusian
cities, the situation quickly degenerated. From August
The widespread politicisation during the election 9 to 11, police, special brigades and military units
2 campaign resulted in a high voter turnout, brought to
light by very long queues leading to polling stations.
violently dispersed the protestors with water cannons,
sound grenades, tear gas and rubber bullets, causing
When the results were posted, many citizens felt severe injuries, at least four deaths and six people
like their vote "has been stolen". When it comes to disappearing.[8] According to the UN, among the 6,000
falsifications, the rate of early voting was higher than people arrested, at least 450 detainees were tortured
[3]“‘Sumlennyia lyudzi’ iauka during previous presidential elections - more than in temporary detention centres[9] with, according to
na daterminovae galasavan’ne
41.7% of the population. The actual turnout was about some testimonies, the aim of “showing who they had
zavychanaïa prykladna udvaïa”
(According to “Honest People”, half as high, according to the independent observation to vote for”.
the real turnout during the early
initiative "Sumlennyia lyudzi" (Honest people)[3]. As
vote was about twice as low),
Radie Svaboda (Radio Liberty), 10 a result, on the election day, some polling stations These events deeply shocked the population. On
August 2020.
[4]Meeting of the analytic
accused shortages of ballots. While thousands August 12, women dressed in white with flowers in
club of experts “Electoral of citizens volunteered as electoral observers[4] their hands took to the streets to protest against police
observation-2020: new limitations
et opportunities”, the online from existing[5] or newly created[6] independent violence. Following August 16, dubbed the "Freedom
magazine “Nashe Mnenie” (Our
observation initiatives, the authorities limited the Day”[10], during which half a million Belarusians took
opinion), Belarusian Institute of
Strategic Studies (BISS), Belarus observation to three people during the five days of part in rallies all over the country, repression resumed.
Press Club, 30 July 2020.
early voting and to five people on the election day, Every day about 100s of people are arrested, State
[5]The independent and
non-partisan "Human Rights stating the epidemiological situation. Furthermore, factory workers who express their intention to strike
Defenders for Free Elections"
observation campaign, the
independent observers could not count on the presence are dismissed, journalists of independent media
"Prava vybaru" (Right to choose) of the observation mission by the OSCE, which was are detained under the pretext of identity checks,
observation campaign linked
to the centre-right opposition invited too late by the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign and many foreign journalists had their accreditation
parties.
Affairs. revoked by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Nobody is
[6]The online parallel vote-
counting platform "Golas" (The spared: Sviatlana Alexievich, winner of the Nobel Prize
Voice), the community monitor
"Sumlennyia lyudzi" (Honest
Due to such limited observation, it is impossible in literature, was questioned by the Commission of
People), the Zubr platform, the to confirm the victory of Sviatlana Tsihanouskaya. Inquiry; Aliaksandr Mrochek, a famous cardiologist at
observation campaign by the
movement "Tell the Truth!”.
Moreover, exit polls, as well as independent surveys the head of a major hospital, was dismissed in front
[7]Term used, for example,
are forbidden in Belarus. However, according to of his colleagues; the head of the Catholic Church,
by Ethan S. Burger and Victar
Minchuk to refer to Lukashenka's independent observation campaigns, including the Tadeusz Kondrusevich, a Belarusian citizen, was unable
score in the 2001 presidential
"Golas" (The Voice) platform, which received photos to return to Belarus after a trip abroad.
elections. “Alyaksandr’
Lukashenka’s Consolidation of of the ballots of more than a million voters, the count
Power” in Jörg Forbrig, David
R. Marples, Pavol Demes, (ed.),
was fraudulent in at least one out of three polling Despite the repression, the protest movement has
Prospects for Democracy in stations, therefore, the official election results should not weakened. During the work days, numerous
Belarus, The German Marshall
Fund of the United States, 2006, be invalidated. solidarity actions are organised as well as rallies
p. 31.
by various professions (doctors, teachers, railway
[8]Presentation by the Special
rapporteur on the situation with THE POINT OF NO RETURN workers, workers from the new technologies sector,
human rights in Belarus, Anaïs
actors from the Yanka Kupala theatre, students,
Marin, at the informal conference
of the UN Security Council, 4 The announcement of yet another “elegant victory”[7] by etc.). Every Saturday, women's marches take place.
September 2020.
[9]UN human rights experts:
Alyaksandr Lukashenka with over 80% of the votes led to And every Sunday, hundreds of thousands of people
Belarus must stop torturing many people gathering outside of their polling stations in unite in marches in the centre of Minsk and in several
protesters and prevent enforced
disappearances, 1 September order to protest against the results. In few places where Belarusian cities.
2020.
the count appeared to be fair, members of the polling
[10]Ekaterina Pierson-Lyzhina,
« Conséquences de la r-EVA-lution stations were greeted with applause, while in other, The Coordination Council, formed to represent the
bélarusse : de la contestation
presumably tarnished by fraud, in many cases members interests of the protest movement with the approval
politique à la formation d’une
nation ? », Regard sur l’Est, 31 were accompanied home by anti-riot police. When people of Sviatlana Tsihanouskaya and including respected
August 2020.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°573 / 6TH OCTOBER 2020Emerging from the political crisis in Belarus:
with or without the intervention of external actors?
personalities of the Belarusian society, is not recognised protest movement forcing many people to immigrate.
by the authorities as a legitimate interlocutor. On the However, this type of regime, described by Linz and
contrary, many of its members have been detained or Chehabi as one that can be easily overthrown by a coup
forced to leave the country, and a criminal investigation
has been opened against the council. However, the
d'etat,[12] cannot be sustained over a long period of
time in a State such as Belarus, which is poor in natural
3
European Parliament considers the Coordination resources and has an unreformed economy, unless
Council as the "provisional representative of the financial support comes from abroad, according to the
people demanding democratic change". Despite the researcher Andrei Kazakevich.[13] The establishment
announcement of the constitutional reform, Alyaksandr of such a regime would lead to a decrease in foreign
Lukashenka repeated several times in an interview investment, the departure of foreign companies and
with Russian journalists on August 9 that only his especially information technology companies, one of
death could put an end to his presidency. the most dynamic sectors in the country, causing a
further deterioration of the economic situation.[14]
Within the Belarusian State, there are no institutional
arrangements that could serve as a framework for Recent appointments show that Alyaksandr [11] These are authoritarian
regimes based on personal
dialogue between the authorities and the opposition. Lukashenka is increasingly surrounding himself with ideology and favours in order
The parliament formed in 2019 is entirely loyal to siloviki (representatives of the law-enforcement to keep the autocrat in power,
with little ideological basis. H.E.
the president. Governors and mayors are not elected agencies). In December 2019, Natallia Kachanava, a Chehabi and Juan J. Linz (ed.),
Sultanistic Regimes: A Theory of
but appointed by Lukashenka himself. The example specialist in social issues at the head of the presidential
Sultanism Sultanistic Regimes,
of the Hrodna region speaks for itself: in this region, administration, was replaced by Ihar Sergeenka, Baltimore and London, The John
Hopkins University Press, 1998,
demonstrators managed to obtain the release of the deputy head of the KGB.[15] In June 2020, during 284 p; Juan J. Linz and Alfred
detainees and a permission to gather legally in the the presidential campaign, Alyaksandr Lukashenka Stepan., Problems of Democratic
Transition and Consolidation.
main square of the city of Hrodna. This success was replaced the Prime Minister Serguei Rumas, a reform- Southern Europe, South America,
and Post-Communist Europe,
cancelled by the replacement of the governor by oriented economist, by Raman Galouchanka, former
Baltimore, Johns Hopkins
Uladzimir Karanik, loyal to Lukashenka and who has chairman of the state military and industrial committee. University Press, 1996, pp.
51 - 54, 70 - 71; Juan J. Linz
tarnished his reputation as the Minister of Health by Lukashenka also recalled Dmitri Paulichenka, colonel of
“Totalitarian and Authoritarian
manipulating statistics on deaths from the coronavirus. the special forces’ unit from the Ministry of the Interior, Regimes”, in Fred I. Greenstein
et Nelson W. Polsby (ed.),
dismissed in March 2009. Paulichenka was banned Handbook of Political Science, Vol.
COULD ALYAKSANDR LUKASHENKA STAY from entering the EU because of his alleged implication 3, Reading, MA, Addison-Wesley,
1975, p. 259.
IN POWER BY TRANSFORMING THE in the disappearances of Belarusian political figures in [12]H.E. Chehabi and Juan J.
Linz, op. cit. p. 19.
AUTHORITARIAN REGIME INTO A SULTANISTIC 1999 - 2000. He was the one who led the dispersion of
[13]The opinion expressed by
REGIME? demonstrators in Minsk on August 10. At the beginning Andrei Kazakevich, researcher at
the University Vytautas Magnus,
of September, while the mobilization started to prove
during the meeting of the club of
The most pessimistic scenario on which the Belarusian itself as durable, the army representative Andrei experts “Optimism vs pessimism
during the elections of 2020”,
authorities are counting on would be for Alyaksandr Raukou was replaced at the post of the Secretary of Nashe Mnenie (Our opinion),
Lukashenka to stay in power by means of definitely the State Security Council by Valery Vakulchik, former Belarusian Institute of Strategic
Studies (BISS), Belarus Press
transforming the authoritarian regime into one that KGB director. Club, 23 July 2020.
[14]According to the economist
Juan J. Linz, Alfred Stepan and Houchang E. Chehabi
Kateryna Bornukova, academic
define as sultanistic.[11] In this type of regime, the PUTIN AT LUKASHENKA'S SIDE: IS BELARUSIAN director and researcher at the
BEROC economic research centre,
leader, who does not enjoy popular support, remains in SOVEREIGNTY AND INDEPENDENCE AT STAKE?
growth in Belarusian GDP was
power by relying on repression and purges within his weak in the years 2010 compared
to the 2000s. In 2019, it grew by
administrative and security apparatus. Raukou's dismissal is not surprising given his involvement only 1.2%, the forecast for 2020
in the arrest at the end of July of 33 mercenaries from is -4%.
[15]Andrei Yeliseyeu, “Belarus
The establishment of a repressive regime of this kind the Russian private military company Wagner Group: at a Crossroads: Political Regime
Transformation and Future
which systematically uses paramilitary forces to repress Lukashenka’s regime has changed its strategy, hoping
Scenarios”, Belarus Digest, 1
the opposing voices, would lead to the weakening of the that Vladimir Putin will come to its rescue. September 2020.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°573 / 6TH OCTOBER 2020Emerging from the political crisis in Belarus:
with or without the intervention of external actors?
In the first days following the post-electoral violence, United States, will sign the roadmaps for deepening
Alyaksandr Lukashenka was already boasting of Russian the integration in the framework of the Russia-Belarus
support by declaring that Putin had promised to intervene Union State which he refused to sign at the end of
4 militarily in accordance with the obligations undertaken
by the two countries in the framework of the Collective
2019. According to a pessimistic scenario, the signing
of these documents would mean the end of Belarus
Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), whereas such as an independent State or, in a more optimistic
support is only foreseen in case of external military scenario, the end of Belarusian economic autonomy.
aggression. However, at the beginning of the crisis, the However, deepening integration within the framework
Russian authorities took a cautious stance. During this of the State of the Union is not very popular neither
period, Alyaksandr Lukashenka phoned Vladimir Putin in Russia nor in Belarus. In the latter, only 24% of the
several times, refusing, according to media reports, to population want the creation of common supranational
communicate with the leaders of European countries. bodies (according to a survey carried out in June by
the Sociology Institute of the Academy of Sciences)
Kremlin’s official support dates from August 21, when and 61.6% are in favour of preserving the country's
journalists from the TV channel "Russia Today" arrived independence from Moscow. In Russia, according to a
to Minsk to replace the journalists and technical crew poll undertaken by the Russian Centre for the Study
from the State news agency BelTA who had resigned. of Public Opinion in August 2020, only 22% of those
Since then, media coverage in Belarus by the State interviewed supported the creation of a single State
media has changed considerably. An association and 43% supported the maintaining of friendly relations
between the Ukrainian Euromaidan of 2013-2014 and between two independent countries.
the Belarusian protest has been created, whereas the
latter is essentially an anti-Lukashenka mobilisation However, Russian support accorded to Lukashenka is
devoid of any geopolitical claims. There has also limited: only 1.5 billion was promised by Vladimir Putin
been an attempt to provoke a confrontation between in Sochi - this sum can, for instance, compensate for
supporters and opponents of Lukashenka, by presenting the 1.4 billion decrease in gold reserves in August 2020
them as equal in size, stigmatising the protesters as alone - and Kremlin’s declarations remain moderate.
nationalist and russophobe. For example, since the Its spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, for example, expressed
arrival of Russian media consultants, the police has concern about the disappearances in Belarus after the
started covering Soviet monuments with barbed wire, kidnapping of the opposition leader Maryya Kalesnikava
insinuating that they are in danger, even though there on September 9. He was also irritated by Alyaksandr
were no cases of vandalism by Belarusian peaceful Lukashenka's assertion that the protest movement in
protesters before. The fact that the demonstrators took Belarus would expand to Russia.
shelter in a Catholic church in the centre of Minsk on
August 26 as they fled from the anti-riot police, was China is another country capable of financially
also used by the government media to sow the seeds supporting the current regime in Minsk and who
of religious disaccord. So far, all these attempts have congratulated Alyaksandr Lukashenka on his election.
proved ineffective. However, given the political instability and the
difficulties in Lukashenka’s relations with the European
Vladimir Putin's support for Alyaksandr Lukashenka has Union, Belarus is becoming less attractive to China
so far only had the effect of provoking an increase in than before. Moreover, it is worth recalling that, in
anti-Kremlin moods among the protesters (manifested most cases, Chinese credits to Belarus were destined
by the appearance of banners to this effect starting the to specific projects and aimed at increasing Chinese
manifestation of September 6), although anti-Russian exports, and that China has only once (in December
feelings are uncommon among the Belarusian population. 2019) granted a half a million $ without attaching
The latter fears in particular that Lukashenka, now conditions.
that he has again become a pariah in Europe and the
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / EUROPEAN ISSUES N°573 / 6TH OCTOBER 2020Emerging from the political crisis in Belarus:
with or without the intervention of external actors?
WHAT CAN THE EUROPEAN UNION DO? The EU also announced an aid of €53 million, of which
€50 million will be granted to counter the consequences
The European Union’s response was both timid and of the coronavirus pandemic, but may be used for other
slow. The European Union, Belarus’ second largest
trading partner, did not send a clear signal to the
purposes by the Belarusian authorities. Only €3 million
will go to the victims of repression and independent
5
Belarusian authorities about the red lines that they media. The economic assistance plan presented by the
should not have crossed while the political repression Lithuanian President, Gitanas Nauseda, prepared with
has been orchestrated since the early stages of the Poland and Romania to help “democratic Belarus” is
election campaign debuting in May. However, while also an encouraging sign for the demonstrators.
previous Belarusian elections had been qualified as
“having failed to satisfy the criteria to describe the To go further, the EU could suspend cooperation with
for democratic elections”, the European Union went State-controlled NGOs and projects with the public
further this time and did not recognize the results, or sector financed through the EIB and EBRD and increase
Alyaksandr Lukashenka as president, despite him being the support for the development of the civil society.
sworn into office. Lithuania went even further and
recognised Sviatlana Tsihanouskaya as the president. While the Heads of State and Government of the
The French President Emmanuel Macron, after declaring European Union decided on October 2 to adopt
that President Lukashenka had to leave, travelled to targeted sanctions against 40 Belarusian officials (but
Lithuania on 29 September where he met Sviatlana not against Alexander Lukashenka), everything should
Tsihanouskaya and reiterated his offer of mediation be done to ensure that the Belarusian people are not
within the framework of the OSCE (Organisation left alone in the face of repression and the authorities
for Security and Cooperation in Europe). While this refusal to engage in dialogue.
event was described as "historic" by the independent
Belarusian media, during a telephone conversation,
Vladimir Putin told Emmanuel Macron that he considers Ekaterina Pierson-Lyzhina
"all attempts to interfere in the internal affairs of a PhD candidate at Université libre de Bruxelles
sovereign state and external pressure on the legitimate
authorities unacceptable". Sviatlana Tsihanouskaya
said she would address the French Parliament on
October 7, and that a meeting with German Chancellor
Angela Merkel would take place on October 6. On
several occasions already Sviatlana Tsihanouskaya has
spoken to MEPs in Brussels.
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THE FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN, created in 1991 and acknowledged by State decree in 1992, is the main
French research centre on Europe. It develops research on the European Union and its policies and promotes the content
of these in France , Europe and abroad. It encourages, enriches and stimulates European debate thanks to its research,
publications and the organisation of conferences. The Foundation is presided over by Mr. Jean‑Dominique Giuliani.
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