Education & cooperation deliver eMobility expansion - Exploring consumer perceptions and non-technical challenges that impact mass EV adoption ...
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Education & cooperation deliver eMobility expansion Exploring consumer perceptions and non-technical challenges that impact mass EV adoption. By S&P Global Mobility, formerly IHS Markit; prepared for and commissioned by Eaton | March 2022
Contents Methodology 3 Executive Summary 3 Infrastructure and EV Adoption 5 EVSE Locations 6 EVSE Types & Advantages 7 Consumer Perspectives 9 Special Insert: Plug-in Sales Insights & TCO 11 Federal & State-level Investments 14 Regulatory Challenges & Incentives 16 Impact to the Grid 18 Industry Interview Perspectives 19 Conclusions & Future Outlook 21
Methodology
S&P Global Mobility has reviewed the topic of automotive eMobility
infrastructure and its various interdependencies from EV sales,
consumer perspectives, and regulatory milestones. For this paper,
S&P Global Mobility leveraged its internal fact-based expertise and
data, in addition to independent opinions from key automotive industry
representatives. We performed several interviews from high-ranking
officials from automakers, utilities, suppliers, and charging network
operators to triangulate perspectives on this topic. S&P Global Mobility
then compared the key takeaways with analysis from its experts and
proprietary data to form the subsequent report. S&P Global Mobility
has performed all research and analysis independently and delivered
herein the findings of this report; a study commissioned by Eaton.
Executive Summary
– There is strong growth in electric vehicle supply
equipment (EVSE) and the scales are tipped This shift in the
strongly toward Level 2 AC installations due to costs
and compatibility.
overall sales of
– The electric vehicle user experience is not to drive to electrified vehicles,
fuel, but to fuel where you park, and consumers are
unfamiliar with this fact. as well as the
– Today’s biggest challenge to the buildout of a segment shift
complete EV charging infrastructure is coordination
of stakeholders. toward full BEVs in
Historically, the development of the electric vehicle these major global
has been distilled down to the age-old “chicken or egg”
paradox. Will the sale of EVs (electric vehicles) drive markets illustrates
the development of eMobility infrastructure, or will the
network of charging stations drive EVs volumes? The early the progress the
adopters have already adopted, and now the automotive
industry is investing billions to scale EVs into mass market
industry has made
pricing, appeal, product requirements and usability. on improving
When peering into the challenges of the charging
infrastructure, the issues were formerly technical in
both “the chicken”
nature. Does the grid (macro and micro) have the power
necessary to support charging stations? Is the connector
and “the egg.”
compatible with the various types of EVs on the road?
How reliable are the charging stations? How do I manage
and optimize the network of stations on the backend?
3These challenges have – for the most part – been met with improvements in both hardware and software. Yet, the industry still has issues with scaling EV sales to the mass market. S&P Global Mobility calculates approximately 4 percent of vehicle sales in the US in 2021 had a plug-in, 75 percent of which were full BEVs (battery electric vehicles) with the remaining being plug-in hybrids. By the end of 2028, nearly a third of vehicles sold in the US will have a plug, and by then 80 percent of those will be a full BEV. The year 2021 arguably marked the year that BEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) entered the light vehicle sales mainstream in key European markets and in mainland China. Among the EU28, EV sales will reach more than 50 percent of overall sales by 2028, according to S&P Global Mobility forecasts, with 84 percent of those being BEVs. Electric car sales doubled in several European countries over the past year, including Sweden, Italy and Ireland, and surged by 83 percent in Germany. In China, the world’s largest automotive sales market, EV sales will reach 35 percent in 2028, and 84 percent of those will be full BEVs. In mainland China, sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs), were up 74 percent year on year to 1.9 million units from 2020 to 2021. This shift in the overall sales of electrified vehicles, as well as the segment shift toward full BEVs in these major global markets illustrates the progress the industry has made on improving both “the chicken” and “the egg.” However, 10 to 20 percent of vehicle sales is by no measure mass market adoption. The truth is the industry still must overcome some serious consumer barriers to adoption. According to S&P Global Mobility consumer research in 2021, two of the top five reasons why people chose not to buy an EV again are charging-related issues. This includes anything from charging times to station availability and range. These barriers remain, even while experts know the current public infrastructure has more than enough capacity to keep these vehicles charged and that range anxiety is overblown as most commuters do not come close to tapping out their battery range. Beyond the consumer barriers, the eMobility infrastructure build out has more regulatory and utility-oriented challenges than one would imagine. Experts S&P Global Mobility spoke to repeatedly cited the challenges in simply organizing the local authorities to work with utility commissions and oversight bodies to open sites for infrastructure development. So much is tied up in outdated frameworks and policy, that deployment can be slow, regardless of the demand presented. This can vary quite widely across regions. For example, in Europe, there is little regulation on small EVSE installations, but larger installations are more challenging to coordinate. Ultimately, the eMobility infrastructure challenges are global in nature, but local in execution, presenting a fragmented approach for any one company or association to help drive expansion. 4
Infrastructure and EV adoption
Market Trends: Global Cumulative Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Deployments
2022 Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Deployments (Millions)
Americas 2.0M
EMEA 7.9M
APAC 5.1M
2028 Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Deployments (Millions)
Americas 10.7M
EMEA 18.8M
APAC 25.7M
Source: EV Charging Infrastructure Forecast - H1 2021 Forecast
Most major automotive markets have come a long way since the introduction of mass-
produced EVs. With the arrival of disruptors like Tesla, and the shift toward electrification
at industry stalwarts like General Motors and Volkswagen, the representative investments
and deployments of adequate charging infrastructure have been underway.
S&P Global Mobility forecasts significant growth in EVSE (electric vehicle supply equipment)
deployments over the next 8 years. There are 5.1 million EV charging stations available in the
APAC region, of which about 38 percent of the stations are public and semi-public charging
stations. In APAC, the annual installations of EV charging stations are expected to grow at a
CAGR of 30 percent during the 2022–28 period, and only about 4 percent of the EV charging
stations deployed in the APAC region in 2030 will be located outside of mainland China,
Japan, and South Korea. S&P Global Mobility forecasts that the cumulative deployment
of EV charging stations in APAC will increase from 5.1 million to 25.7 million by 2028.
S&P Global Mobility expects that the EVs on the road in the United States will increase
from 1.8 million in 2021 to about 30 million units in 2030, which comes up to a significant
35 percent CAGR. Such rapid increase in EV penetration in the US market, coupled
with the favorable regulatory policy framework developed by the government, is driving
the rapid deployment of both public and domestic charging stations in the US.
All three major regions will see strong CAGRs (compound annual growth rates)
ranging from 15 percent to more than 40 percent between 2022 and 2028. This
growth is predominantly in service of the commensurate growth in EV sales as well
as federal and regional incentives to build out EVSE networks and equipment.
5EVSE Locations
The growth in EVSE installations is only a small part of the story. Much of the consumer
objection on charging availability is caused by the fact that the large majority of total EVSE
is installed in domestic locations, outside of the access or purview of the general public.
Global Cumulative EVSE Deployments, by Location
50
45
40
35
30
Millions
25
20
15
10
5
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Domestic charging Public & Semi-public charging
Source: EV Charging Infrastructure Forecast - H1 2021 Forecast © 2022 S&P Global Mobility
While municipal deployments will vary greatly, on the global scale, domestic charging
station installations represent 80 to 85 percent of all EVSE in operation today
and this number will hold steady over time. To put it in real terms, only 1.63 million
public, semi-public or commercial charging stations are in the ground, globally,
as of 2021. This number is set to grow to 9.17 million EVSE installations by 2028,
according to S&P Global Mobility forecasts. By contrast, the global domestic EVSE
installations will grow from 8.21 million in 2022 to 44.33 million by 2028. Public and
domestic EVSE will grow at a similar pace of around 28 percent CAGR (2021-2028),
but domestic will still outpace public by over 40 million cumulative units in 2028.
S&P Global Mobility spoke with experts in the industry about this trend and a common
theme emerged in the discussions. Overall, the eMobility infrastructure available on
the market today is strong enough to meet the demand presented from the various
electric vehicles on the road. However, due to the heavy reliance on domestic charging
sources – which are most often hidden behind a garage door from the public eye – the
general non-EV owning public is unaware of the presence or location of public EVSE.
EV owners are acutely aware of publicly-accessible charging stations, but everyone else is –
for the most part – unaware. Thus, a major incentive for the industry to install more stations
is literally to advertise their availability, even if a large majority will choose to charge at home.
6EVSE Types & Advantages
Going deeper into the public charging stations, there is another clear trend that emerges.
S&P Global Mobility estimates that in 2022, roughly 85 percent of the cumulative public,
semi-public or commercial charging stations globally will be AC variants, predominately
AC Level 2 variants. The other 15 percent will be DC charging options, which provide
a significantly faster charge for those vehicles that can handle it. By 2028, though,
the AC volume will represent nearly 93 percent of the installed base globally.
Global Cumulative Public EVSE Deployments, by Type
9
8
7
6
5
Millions
4
3
2
1
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
AC - Public/Semi-Public/Commercial DC - Public/Semi-Public/Commercial
Source: EV Charging Infrastructure Forecast - H1 2021 Forecast © 2022 S&P Global Mobility
This then brings up technology and business model questions. Is it more important
to deploy many slower (but not slow) charging stations, or to deploy fewer fast
charging stations? The consequences of the choices here will determine other
factors such as vehicle throughput, number of physical stacks required per charging
site, and the financial considerations of both installation and operation.
The chart below defines some of the key pros and cons for installation of AC
charging station variants and DC charging stations. This analysis is global and
generalized in nature, with the knowledge that specific sites, incentives, and
policies might drive particular advantages for one technology over another.
Putting AC Level 2 stations in the ground is generally less expensive to install and
operate than DC fast charging stations due to the fact that high voltage lines are
not as easily accessible around certain public parking facilities, such as older
parking garages, retail complexes, and existing workplace parking lots.
Furthermore, the AC stations will generally offer the end-user a less expensive
charge, since it is delivered at a slower rate. This then provides the station host
with a chance to consider different business models to offset costs of installation
and electricity charges. These may include longer time in the host’s store or
restaurant, or simply a competitive edge for an urban parking facility.
The negatives include the need for more physical stations per site in order
to meet demand, which can become an issue for smaller EV charging sites
where fewer vehicle parking spots are available. It is also less likely for AC units
to generate direct charging revenues, and obviously provides a slower charge
to the end-user. AC stations are more likely to be free or very inexpensive to the
end-user, depending on level and potential incentives from other sources.
On the flip side of the equation, DC fast charging offers end-users a “rapid” charging
experience, especially compared to user’s experiences with home charging.
Strategically placed DC fast chargers can help make or break the usability of
EVs for lengthy commutes or road trips. DC fast chargers will match more of the
traditional vehicle fueling user experience (UX) model, wherein the user must go to
a station to refuel. In particular areas and scenarios, this is the optimal solution.
7Given the speed of refueling, site hosts are much more likely to charge
users by the minute or kWh of energy consumed. This provides an incentive Strategically
to install a DC fast charger for direct revenue purposes, which can include
layered fees for activation, time-of-use charges, and even overage placed DC
charges for a vehicle that stays plugged-in after charging is complete.
fast chargers
As the industry (and end-users alike) becomes familiar with various charging
technologies, different strategies will be deployed for different use-cases. can help make
For example, an individual EV owner may choose not to buy an EVSE for their
home use based on their individual commute needs, their vehicle’s range, or break the
other vehicles in the household, or proximity to public AC or DC charging.
Meanwhile, a fleet owner who has tens, hundreds, or thousands of EVs in their
usability of
fleet will need to consider operational uptime and their existing footprint of
fleet maintenance and storage facilities when purchasing EVSE technologies.
EVs for lengthy
Electrified fleets are in a nascent stage today, but both light commercial and
medium and heavy commercial vehicles are beginning to come to market,
commutes or
offering fleet owners a major operational cost advantage over gasoline, diesel or
even natural gas fuel types. Even with a small scale EV fleet, AC Level 2 charging
road trips.
stations will help to optimize the fleet’s efficiency. Depending on the use-case
of the fleet (long-haul, fixed route, or local goods or passenger transport)
DC charging could prove to be a better choice or the more expensive one.
Public Charging Considerations
DC Charging AC Charging
FASTER Charging SLOWER
FEWER Units needed per site for same throughput MORE
SMALLER Site footprint needed LARGER
LARGER Individual station footprint needed SMALLER
MORE Complicated site electrical install process LESS
MULTIPLE DC Required connector standard ONE AC
Commonly drives indirect revenues from charging (neutral point)
Source: S&P Global Mobility
8Consumer Perspectives Over half of
As shown, strategies will differ for each individual use-case, and
herein lies another educational imperative. The industry must work respondents
to educate buyers (both private and fleet) about the differences in
fueling EVs. As one interviewee put it, “In many ways, this is a better see EV
user experience than gas – you don’t have to go out of your way.”
pricing as the
But this is not the general public’s perception. S&P Global Mobility
consumer research in 2021 revealed a few interesting shortcomings largest issue
around the awareness and acuity of charging electric vehicles.
The survey interviewed buyers of new vehicles in countries and regions
preventing
all over the world on topics from connectivity and safety to electrification
perspectives. Of the respondents who had not purchased a hybrid or
purchase.
electric vehicle, longer charging duration, cost, inadequate charging
infrastructure, and range were the major pain points that kept customers
in traditional ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles. Time required for
charging came in at the top spot at 37 percent of respondents, and lack of
charging station availability came in third at 32 percent of respondents.
Comparing these concerns to the previous iteration of the survey, we see
vehicle price becoming more powerful of a deciding factor with 54 percent
of respondents this time saying it was the number one issue. In the previous
survey, “time required for charging” was the number one issue, but in the
latest survey it has dropped to third with 41 percent. This is likely a testimony
to the quick advancements in charging times with some vehicles (Kia EV6,
Hyundai Ioniq5, Porsche Taycan and Lucid Air) being able to charge in less
than 20 minutes with their 800V systems. Limited driving range remains an
issue despite newer electric vehicles coming to the market with an average
200 miles in range. In another question related to range – “what mile range
would you consider to be an acceptable minimum” – more than two-thirds
(67 percent) of respondents wanted more than 200-mile range. Despite
changing attitudes on time it takes to charge, a majority of respondents
still think that there is a lack of adequate charger infrastructure.
Why wouldn’t you purchase an electric/hybrid vehicle?
Too expensive/Pricing issues
Lack of charging station availability
Time required for charging
Limited travel range
Unfamiliar user experience
There were too few model options
Performance issues
Unclear resale value
Other
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Source: S&P Global Mobility eMobility Consumer Survey, 2021 © 2022 S&P Global Mobility
9Despite these factors, EV loyalty is high, with an average of 90 percent
of respondents saying they intend to purchase another EV as their next Much of the
vehicle. However, among those who bought an EV, there were concerning
results. Among those who would not reconsider purchasing an EV, 43 problem lies
percent said they were too expensive followed by a third of respondents
having issues with the charging network, range, and charging times. in the public
The percentage of EV owners who believe there is a deficit of public charging perception of
infrastructure in their local area differs greatly from country to country.
their fueling
(Owners of electric vehicles) Do you believe the public charging infrastructure is sufficient in your local area?
100%
experience.
90% Simply put,
80%
this is not a
drive to fuel
70%
60%
50% model. It is a
40%
fuel where you
30%
20% park model.
10%
0%
United States Germany United Kingdom China Japan India South Korea Brazil
Yes No Unsure
Source: S&P Global Mobility eMobility Consumer Survey, 2021 © 2022 S&P Global Mobility
In all developed markets only a minority of current EV owners think there
is an adequate charging network. Given the large investments made in
the UK and Germany on charging networks, and the size of the regions, it
is surprising to see only about a quarter of EV owners see the network as
adequate. Opinions are far worse in Japan and South Korea. Japan has
deemphasized EVs as the future of mobility, instead focusing on hydrogen
and hybrid technologies. It’s in the emerging markets of China and India where
EV owners are satisfied, with nearly three quarters of Chinese respondents
having a favorable position and a majority of Indian respondents.
Globally, much of the perception problem lies in the public perceiving
their fueling experience similarly to gas or diesel. Early EV adopters
have not had this perception problem, but in order to reach mainstream
consumers, charging resources need to be more widely distributed. Simply
put, this is not a “drive to fuel” model. It is a “fuel where you park” model.
And there are examples all over the US and Europe where workplaces,
multi-family housing complexes, and retail centers have begun leveraging
EVSE deployments to attract certain types of owners and customers.
Again, the consumer research backs this up with 70 percent of respondents
globally said they would be more likely to purchase a pure battery
electric vehicle if there was a readily available charging station at their
workplace. This is especially strong among buyers already interested
in purchasing an electric vehicle. What will be most interesting is to
see if this trend continues in a post COVID-19 world where workplace
commutes will be far less common among knowledge workers.
10Special Insert: Plug-in Sales Insights
& Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)
Without demand, there would be no need for the supply – in this case
the EVSE or Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment. This section highlights
S&P Global Mobility forecasts on electric vehicle sales, and the different usability
and economic considerations for customers buying electric vehicles.
S&P Global Mobility forecasts a continual and steady growth in electrification
options in major markets worldwide throughout the next 10 years. This trend
will continue despite low oil prices in most of these markets and the steady
improvements to fuel economy of ICE and ICE variant powertrains.
Plug-in Electric Vehicle Forecast Market Share - US, EU, China
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Plug-In Electric & Hybrid Electric Vehicles All ICE and Other Non Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles
Source: EV Charging Infrastructure Forecast - H1 2021 Forecast
Globally, in 2021, plug-in electric vehicles made up 8.8 percent of the vehicle sales
mix, with ICE and other non plug-in hybrid vehicles representing 91.2 percent of
the market, an astounding 59 percent increase year on year. However, by 2028
and beyond, plug-in electric vehicles will make up 40 percent of the sales mix in
major regions combined and will be on a steady 10 percent annual growth rate.
With that amount of growth in plug-in vehicles, there is going to be a representative
growth in demand for vehicle charging stations. On top of the sheer number of
EVs on the road, public stations will be increasingly in demand as the weighted
average range of BEVs produced in 2020 will be 206 miles (332 km) based on WLTP
standards. The number of unique BEVs nameplates hitting roadways in the next
five years will grow, and the weighted average range and battery capacity BEVs
will continue to grow steadily toward 300 miles with 70 kWh or more by 2030.
This growth in demand for public charging options will be most prevalent in urban
settings where buyers may not have easy access to a garage for overnight charging.
These users will rely on public charging points near their homes, workplaces, or
frequently visited parking lots near retailers or other community centers. The realistic
use-case for BEVs is not a drive-to-fuel experience like with ICE vehicles, but a fuel-
where-you-park experience. This trend will highlight the need for a specific mix of Level
2 and DC charging options, based on the housing types and user-base nearby.
Lastly, the increasing demand for economical mobility options is forcing automakers
to scale up their EV platforms in order to bring down the price for consumers. Tesla
brought EVs to the mainstream automotive world, and still captures a large amount of
the luxury car segment. If OEMs like Honda, Nissan, and Volkswagen are to be successful,
they must configure options that fit within the economy budgets of their buyers.
11While many do not consider the full equation, in certain markets today, electric vehicles
are already at parity, or sometimes lower priced, than their comparable ICE vehicle
options in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO). S&P Global Mobility calculates TCO as
a factor of setup and operating costs and residual value. Setup costs include acquisition
price, home EVSE costs and declining incentives. Operating costs include energy, taxes,
insurance and maintenance. Residual values, as defined by S&P Global Mobility, assume
five amortization years and a segment specific number of miles driven per year.
Take for example, Germany. When Smart chose to drop the ICE variant of the
Fortwo, it made sense given the incentive from the government for A-segment
EVs was substantial enough to bring the acquisition price in line with comparable
A-segment ICE options. Add to that the much lower maintenance costs and
the lower energy costs and it becomes cost competitive rather quickly.
Global EV TCO advantages, by region and segments
2020 2025
Country Segment ICE Model BEV Model
Advantage Advantage
Germany A-Segment Smart Fortwo Smart Fortwo EV BEV BEV
China A-Segment SUV SAIC Roewe RX5 SAIC Roewe eRX5 ICE BEV
B-Segment
United States Kia Soul Hyundai Kona EV ICE BEV
Hatchback
United States C-Segment SUV Toyota RAV4 Kia Niro EV ICE ICE
United States D-Segment Sedan Toyota Camry Tesla Model 3 ICE BEV
Germany D-Segment Sedan BMW 3 Series Tesla Model 3 BEV BEV
D-Segment Sedan
China Audi S7 Tesla Model S BEV BEV
(performance)
Jeep Grand
United States E-Segment SUV Audi e-tron ICE
Cherokee
Legend: small advantage decent advantage significant advantage
Source: S&P Global Mobility © 2022 S&P Global Mobility
12When comparing the Kia Soul and Hyundai Kona EV in the B-segment hatchback
in the US market, the Kia wins out in 2020 on total cost of ownership by a decent
margin over the competitive Hyundai EV. However, fast-forward to 2025, and
with the reduction in battery pricing, S&P Global Mobility forecasts EVs in
this segment to become more economical than their ICE competition.
As the vehicles get larger and more expensive, the economics begin to favor
the EV variants more. Comparing D-segment options in the US and Germany
today, the Tesla Model 3 comes out ahead of the BMW 3-Series in TCO yet lags
behind the Toyota Camry overall. However, by 2025, not even the Toyota Camry
will be able to provide a better total cost value equation than the Model 3.
In performance segments, the cost considerations are already favoring the EVs strongly,
as is the case when comparing the Audi S7 with the Tesla Model S in China. The largest
factors here are the acquisition costs and insurance. These seriously limit the Audi in
comparison to the Tesla. However, TCO is not often a factor for performance vehicle buyers.
The last major segment for EVs to provide a challenge is in full-size SUVs and pick-up
trucks. In 2020, there are no viable EV options in these segments to compete with their ICE
opponents, though announcements of forthcoming models have been made. The incentives
help to bring a vehicle like the Audi e-tron in line with a comparably equipped Jeep Grand
Cherokee. However, the insurance and residual values of the e-tron weigh it down heavily.
This makes the Jeep’s TCO more compelling today, but by 2025, S&P Global Mobility
expects these types of products to hit TCO parity with each other, as luxury manufacturers
create better options with better performance and range. In the full-size truck segment,
it could take even longer, as the first offerings from GMC Hummer, Rivian, and Tesla will
be quite expensive in comparison to a common ICE pickup truck from Ford or RAM.
Ultimately, EVs are coming to market in all shapes and sizes, providing customers
more options for electric mobility in the segment and price-class they are familiar
with. However, the economics of buying an EV today over its competitive ICE
options will vary based upon the segment in question and the regional incentives
offered. Additionally, it will take consumers time to carefully consider the TCO
calculus, which is an unfamiliar process for most car buyers today.
13Federal & State-level Investments “The success
Over the past year, automakers have come forth with lofty zero emission
vehicle (ZEV) sales targets and corresponding investment plans. of legislation
The number one reason for this sudden pivot to EVs is governments
putting an increasingly heavy foot on the accelerator. and incentives
The European Union recently passed a new emissions law from cars made or
sold in Europe, which would effectively ban the sale of new cars with internal
designed to
combustion engines by enforcing new emission cuts of 55 percent by 2030 and
100 percent by 2035 compared with 2021 levels. The law also sets up a common
boost the
EU transport network with a wide grid of EV charging and refueling stations uptake of
for alternate fuels. The member states must also provide a total power output
of at least 1 kW for each BEV and 0.66 kW for each PHEV registered in their plug-in electric
territory through publicly accessible charging stations. In the US, the states
of Washington, California and Massachusetts have announced bans on new vehicles (PEVs)
cars with internal combustion engines by 2035. Biden has now upped the
ante by pressing automakers for a 50 percent electric goal by 2030, too. varies greatly
Governments around the world are also fueling consumers’ purchases of EVs with by market.”
generous tax incentives and subsidies as well as into charging infrastructure to
increase EV accessibility. For instance, late last year the US legislator passed the
Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework (BIF) deal which included USD7.5 billion in
funding for programs to develop the nation’s alternative refueling infrastructure.
S&P Global Mobility estimates that the US federal investment will directly
contribute to the construction, maintenance, and operation of approximately
400,000 newly installed Level 2 AC and Level 3 DC Fast chargers in the US between
2022 and 2026. China, South Korea, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, and the UK all
have similar charging infrastructure incentives. In Shanghai, China, the city offers
free license plates for what Beijing calls “new energy vehicles,” while consumers
must go through an auction to get a license plate for a car with a traditional engine.
The nation also introduced subsides for EV purchasers of up to around USD9,000.
Late last year, the world came together at United Nations Climate Change
Conference (COP26) to apply collective pressure to push the global auto industry
toward zero emission. The COP26 ZEV declaration asks for rapid adoption of
ZEVs to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. It entails that the signatories
will work toward allowing sale of only zero-emission cars and vans globally by
2040, and by no later than 2035 in developed markets. The UK, Austria, Canada,
Norway, Sweden, Poland, and New Zealand have committed to this in addition to
California, Dallas, LA, New York, Rome, San Francisco, Scotland and Sikkim, India.
GM, Ford, Jaguar Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Volvo Cars and BYD also committed.
The success of legislation and incentives designed to boost the uptake of
plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) varies greatly by market, for many reasons.
Below outlines S&P Global Mobility’s opinion on the effectiveness of these policies.
14Success of key stimuli for BEV uptake by country
United Kingdom
Mainland China
United States
South Korea
Germany
Thailand
Type Subcategory Beneficiaries
Norway
France
Japan
Spain
India
Italy
••• ••• • ••• • ••• •• •• ••• •••
tariffs
Purchase End
subsidy consumer
Import
Purchase
subsidy
End
consumer • •• •••
I
Annual
End
•• ••• •• ••• • ••
Running cost
registration
consumer
exemption
Company car
tax reduction
or exemption
Corporation
employee •• •• ••
Import tax
Manufacture
••• ••
Tariffs
reduction or
consumer
exemption
Charge point End
•• •• • • ••• •• •• •• •• ••
Infrastructure
grant consumer
Exemption
from road
toll/city
End
consumer •• •• • •• ••
restrictions
Legend: Minor No discernible change in sales volume due to policy.
Moderate Objective change in sales volume due to policy.
Major Significant (>50%) shift in market structure due to policy.
Source: S&P Global Mobility © 2022 S&P Global Mobility
15Regulatory Challenges & Incentives “The biggest
This is possibly the most succinct way of describing the problem with
eMobility infrastructure. This interviewee went on to describe the challenges challenge is
that come with organizing and planning for EVSE installations.
For example, in the US there are 49 individual commissions whose
coordination
mission is to ensure cost prudence and be gatekeepers over this type of
infrastructure development. These commissions exist since each state
of the various
regulates these energy and infrastructure policies differently. On top
of that, there are often watch-dog organizations who watch over the
stakeholders.”
commissioners. All this puts pressure on the utilities, and if the utilities do
not have approvals from the regulators, then development programs will
stall. No wonder coordination of stakeholders is the biggest challenge.
As cities big and small begin to transform their infrastructure to a more
connected, digital footprint, the incentives and development projects
will help to drive further electric vehicle charging infrastructure.
In the public domain, the key factors at play are electrical provisioning at the
site, adequate incentives, uniform building codes, and significant planning.
Meanwhile, the automakers are investing as well. Several OEMs have either
developed their own infrastructure or partnered with network operators to
grow the base of chargers. Some of the many examples include Volkswagen
and its Electrify America program, General Motors and its recent investment
the EVGo network, and Ionity, in Europe, and its joint venture ownership
between BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Hyundai, and Volkswagen Group.
Some believe automakers have invested more than their fair share into
this market, just to keep this going. As one interviewee mentioned,
“There aren’t a lot of other industries where the device maker is required
to build the infrastructure. Apple builds phones, but not the network.”
While there are not federal or state requirements for automakers
to build out the network, it certainly is in their interest to keep the
momentum in the industry, so they can continue to sell vehicles.
In regions throughout the world, government incentives have traditionally
been more focused on EV sales, than on EVSE network infrastructure
development. In addition, the consumer awareness and focus on the
incentives seems to have less impact than intended in certain regions.
16How aware are you of tax credits and other incentives for owning electric and hybrid vehicles?
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
United States Germany United Kingdom China Japan India South Korea Brazil
I am unaware of any incentives regarding owning an electric or hybrid vehicle.
I have heard of the benefits, but I have not received them.
I am aware of the government credits and have received benefits.
Source: S&P Global Mobility eMobility Consumer Survey, 2021 © 2022 S&P Global Mobility
S&P Global Mobility consumer research illustrates this fact. Awareness about the various
incentives from the federal government is the highest in China, South Korea and India.
Although most people are aware of such incentives, they have not availed them. This can
be attributed to low adoption of EVs and hybrids in these countries. UK respondents have
the lowest awareness, though policy changes in UK might be making a difference there.
17Impact to the grid
One of the biggest unknowns in the industry is that strong growth in electric vehicles
will weaken national and regional electricity grids. Although there is some truth to the
concern, there is no clear guidance here, only because there has not been enough
volume in one specific region test to see if the grid will bend and flex, or simply break.
“This is, honestly, a million-dollar question,” said one interviewee, “but for 100 years
of growth in electricity demand, we have managed not to break the grid yet.”
Smart EV Grid
Demand-
Response
Methods
Time-of-Use Bi-directional
Changing Charging
Foundations of
a Smart EV Grid
Networked
Renewables Charging
Stations
Incent
Active
User
Participant
Source: S&P Global Mobility
In one scenario, the growth of EVs could impact the grid and have detrimental effects on
power transmission to other electricity destinations like housing, public works,
industry, and more.
Furthermore, the increased load from EVs is coupled with a dramatic increase in renewables
and is changing the characteristics of loads on the grid. However, this scenario implies
that build out of charging stations goes unchecked and is unregulated. Based on the prior
section, we can conclude there is almost too much oversight for this to become an issue.
Nevertheless, stakeholders can – and should – work together to create an
ecosystem that works for the grid. This is a continual issue with development
planning, permitting, and incentive programming, but if cooperation between
the various stakeholders improves, then the grid’s future is stable.
More specifically, if the grid becomes an open access point, there could be
some long-term effects to supply, resulting in outages. If the distribution side
is left ignored, there will be issues in normalizing the load when demand is
highest. However, there is a lot of focus from the ecosystem players to design
an intelligent grid that works from the top-down and the bottom-up.
Some of the novel solutions to this problem include time-of-use charging, demand-response
methods, employing renewable energy technologies, building bi-directionality into the
vehicles and charging stations, compatibility of charging networks, and incentivizing
consumers and fleet managers to be active in sharing their charging stats. These are
both technical and non-technical solutions that will enable EVs to become a living,
dynamic part of the electric grid, versus an endpoint that simply consumes energy.
18Industry Perspectives
S&P Global Mobility conducted many industry interviews during the
process of this research, surveying respondents over the last six months.
The personas included high-ranking executives and engineers from OEMs,
suppliers, and charging network operators. The following section highlights
some of the key verbatim comments captured during the research.
All the respondents generally agreed that non-technical issues remain the
highest barriers for eMobility infrastructure development. Many of these
conclusions have been highlighted throughout the report already.
Interviewee central themes included:
It is clear the automotive industry is moving toward electrification, and these
comments illustrate that individuals and corporations alike are building the
foundation for a truly integrated vehicle and infrastructure ecosystem. With bi-
directional technologies and fully connected and managed charging networks, this
trend will have positive impacts on the grid, usability, and the environment alike.
It is clear the automotive industry is moving toward electrification, and these
comments illustrate that individuals and corporations alike are building the
foundation for a truly integrated vehicle and infrastructure ecosystem. With bi-
directional technologies and fully connected and managed charging networks, this
trend will have positive impacts on the grid, usability, and the environment alike.
Perception: “If people can see chargers, they will begin to
understand they can use them. We need to make sure as an
industry we are promoting the accessibility and awareness.”
EVSE Mix: “Smart level 2 connected chargers are the optimal solution
for large deployments, but strategically placed DC fast chargers can
help make or break the UX of EVs for lengthy commutes or road trips.”
Adoption: “Improvements in charging networks and availability
will be as important to the mass market adoption of EVs as the
vehicles’ battery range, charging speed and TCO will be.”
Cooperation: “We’re actively involved with others in the
value-chain, such as utilities and charging station network
operators. But this is a marathon, not a sprint. It will take
time, focus, and resources to bring everyone together.”
Industry expert rankings on EV factors:
In addition to the discourse, interviewees were asked to rank the following factors
in order of influence on EV adoption. A score of “1” was deemed most impactful,
whereas a score of “4” was deemed least impactful of the selections.
19– Ranked “1” (highest) across all respondents
Charging availability – Illustrates that the need for highly-visible, networked
charging stations is still under-developed.
– Tied for second place, averaged among respondents
Pricing & incentives – In addition to the TCO calculations, this is further evidence
that costs need to come down to gain broader support.
– Tied for second place, averaged among respondents
Charging speed – The debate on AC vs. DC will continue, and the industry should
strive for faster charging solutions to meet customer expectations.
– Ranked lowest, averaged among respondents
Charging reliability – While outages can create problems for users, reliability
seems to be meeting customer demands at this point.
Among the rankings, the experts put high importance of charging availability as a major
influencing factor toward EV adoption and growth. This is echoed in the 2021 S&P Global
Mobility consumer survey data referenced previously and the verbatim commentary
that defines the need for more EVSE as a leading force for EV sales growth.
It is interesting that pricing, incentives and charging speed all come in as secondary
influencers to the adoption of EVs. Many OEMs have put a lot of effort into scaling EVs in
order to bring down their price to the mass market consumer. Yet, many have also invested
in the growth of DC Fast Charging solutions to run parallel to the scale of their model lineup.
This point identifies that after the charging infrastructure gap, many other factors
need to be considered. Fortunately, this shows the industry is focused on all remaining
factors holistically. The alternative is ignoring some factors in order to reach a
minimum viable product. If the latter were to occur, we would see usability issues
arise, product dissatisfaction grow, and disloyalty to the EV powertrain design.
Lastly, it is encouraging that charging reliability was listed lowest among the
four major influencing factors. This indicates that the industry has proven the
hardware is robust. Furthermore, the connected services offerings in the EV
infrastructure market have proven their ability to flex with demand trends.
20Conclusions and
Future Outlook
This report has defined the biggest challenges facing the deployment of EV infrastructure,
and it has supported those definitions with data from industry expert testimony and
S&P Global Mobility forecasts. As the automotive industry grapples with the ever-
increasing electrification of the fleet, it will continue to invest time, resources, and
technology to ensure the eMobility infrastructure is equipped to handle the demand.
Looking to the future, though, there is a long list of externalities that can accelerate
or hinder the momentum in the industry to date. These include political agendas,
economic shifts, globalization (or the breakdown of it), unknown innovations
from disruptors, and a constantly changing consumer landscape.
Taking these into account is not trivial, as the industry faces more transformation
now than it has in the past the century. Electrified mobility is not only changing
vehicle engineering, but also business models and the consumer experience.
The infrastructure that supports the growth in EVs will be as important as the
new vehicles themselves, and now as the industry looks to pivot, education
and cooperation will critical to make electrified mobility a reality for all.
21About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights derived from unmatched
automotive data, enabling our customers to anticipate change and make
decisions with conviction. Our expertise helps them to optimize their businesses,
reach the right consumers, and shape the future of mobility. We open the
door to automotive innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and
helping customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI). S&P Global is
the world’s foremost provider of credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and
workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive markets.
With every one of our offerings, we help many of the world’s leading
organizations navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for
tomorrow, today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
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