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Gabelli Funds November 18, 2020 One Corporate Center Rye, NY 10580-1422 (914) 921-7738 www.gabelli.com Edge: The Next Frontier Source: Cloudflare Christopher Ward, CFA Gabelli Funds 2020 (914) 921-7738 cward@gabelli.com
Gabelli Funds One Corporate Center November 18, 2020 Rye, NY 10580-1422 (914) 921-7738 www.gabelli.com “Computing is no longer confined to a device or even a single data center. Instead it’s a ubiquitous fabric, it’s distributed from the cloud to the edge, closer to where data is generated, and with the ability to adapt to the wide range of inputs, whether it’s touch, speech, vision or gestures.” Satya Nadella, CEO, Microsoft, Mobile World Congress 2019 OVERVIEW Investors should always on the lookout for emerging technological paradigms. The theme in software for the past several years has been the migration of on-premises workloads to public cloud infrastructure and software-as-a-service (SaaS) applications. COVID-19 has acted as a force function for cloud adoption. In a recent Fortune survey, 75% of Fortune 500 CEOs expect digital transformation projects to accelerate. The traditional benefits of cloud have included lower total cost of ownership, scalability and access to best-of-breed software. But even more important today, cloud is enabling business continuity for remote workforces. As more workloads move to the cloud, businesses are being forced to rethink their entire IT stack, including networking and security. Historically, organizations would purchase physical networking hardware, such as routers, switches and firewalls, which would sit next to server racks in a data center. But corporate networks are increasingly being accessed remotely, and legacy models of backhauling internet traffic through centralized on-prem data centers are slow and expensive. The on-prem model fails to match the speed, security and cost efficiency of cloud native networking and security solutions, which some refer to as edge networks. However, there remains a disconnect between investor perception and the utility of edge networks. The objective of this whitepaper is to explore the role edge networks will play in a world increasingly demanding compliant, secure, reliable, and low-latency applications. DEFINING THE EDGE Exhibit 1: Edge to Core Value Chain In the technical sense of the word, the edge is anywhere things and people can connect with the networked digital world. At Google’s 2019 Hardware Event, Rick Osterloh, Senior Vice President of Devices and Services, described the company’s vision for “ambient computing”: “Your devices work together with services and AI, so help is anywhere you want it, and it’s fluid. The technology just fades into the background when you don’t need it.” Osterloh is describing a world in which internet-of-things (IoT) devices are pervasive, Smartphones, tablets, speakers, wearables and even home appliances. These are just some examples of edge devices. The edge is poised to play a growing role in the Source: Gartner computing ecosystem. McKinsey expects the growth in Internet of Things (IoT) devices to surge to 43 billion in 2023, a threefold increase from 2018. This growth will be enabled by new sensors, more computing power and 5G wireless connectivity. However, in order for IoT to realize its full potential of driving ubiquitous ambient computing, the hardware on edge devices will “The current practice of IoT data being transported to a central need to be low cost with a long battery life. location for processing does not scale well and will not meet the Dispatching technicians (“truck rolls”) to real-time latency requirements of some key use cases.” troubleshoot or replace batteries will be cost prohibitive in a world where connected devices – The Future X Network, A Bell Labs Perspective number in the tens of billions. To mitigate the need for extra compute hardware on the device -1-
and reduce the power consumption of sensors, data processing can be outsourced from the device to edge networks. For this reason, and more discussed below, compute resources are expected to accrue to edge networks as IoT devices proliferate. The remainder of this paper will focus not on edge devices, but on edge networks, as defined by Gartner: “a part of a distributed computing topology in which information processing is located close to the edge – where things and people produce or consume that information.” CONTENT DELIVERY NETWORKS Exhibit 2: Conversion rates decline with load times Any discussion about edge networks must begin with Content Delivery Networks (CDNs). As stated in a recent Federal Communications Commission whitepaper, “Distributed edge computing is analogous to, and can be regarded as an extension of, the evolution of content distribution over the last few decades.” The value proposition of CDNs is that they can significantly enhance Source: Walmart.com study, February 2012 the performance of content delivery over the internet. The public internet was simply not architected to handle today’s ever-increasing speed, security and data demands. In an era where web speed can dictate business outcomes, fast load time is critical. Exhibit 2 shows how slow load times reduce conversion rates. Exhibit 3: Example of Content Delivery Network CDNs sit between an endpoint device (e.g. mobile phone or laptop) and an origin server (a public cloud or enterprise data center). CDN servers are typically placed at internet exchange points (IXPs) geographically dispersed around the world, with the goal of being physically close to the end user. These edge locations are referred to as points of presence (POPs). When a user requests content (webpages, images, video) for the first time from a service using a CDN, the CDN will retrieve the content from the origin server and save a copy on the edge server for subsequent requests. The process of origin servers offloading content onto a CDN server is known as caching. Placing copies of files in a cache closer to the endpoint results in much faster Source: CDN Review loading times. In the event a user requests content that is not cached (a “cache miss”), the CDN can request the content from the origin server (of course, this will be slower than a “cache hit”). CDNs also have many benefits that are less visible to the end user, including reduced bandwidth costs (by reducing the traffic that “A website on Cloudflare sees 65% fewer requests to the origin traverses telco pipes), redundancy (improved yielding a 60% reduction in bandwidth consumption on your origin web servers.” uptime) and security (e.g. distributed denial-of- service protection, web application firewalls). – Cloudflare CDN Whitepaper CDNs play a critical role in the internet ecosystem, but the industry is relatively commoditized with annual price compression of ~20%. -2-
CASE STUDY: NETFLIX’S OPEN CONNECT Exhibit 4: Netflix Open Connect Network If you’ve ever wondered how Netflix is able to instantaneously load video, even faster than peer streaming services, the answer lies in its purpose-built globally distributed CDN, Open Connect. While Netflix utilizes Amazon Web Services (AWS) for storage and compute, Netflix maintains its own CDN infrastructure to optimize the delivery of video traffic. Prior to developing Open Connect in 2011, Netflix used a variety of third-party CDNs, such as Akamai, Level 3 and Limelight Networks. But in response to its growing scale, Netflix decided that they could better optimize video delivery by building their own customized CDN in order to streamline the hardware and software. In a Source: Netflix digital world, where milliseconds can impact customer engagement, Netflix can’t rely on the public internet, or even third-party CDNs, to deliver the consumer experience it strives for. While this do-it-yourself (DIY) CDN approach can make sense for the biggest internet properties in the world, the economics of shared infrastructure are far more attractive for the vast majority of applications. EDGE NETWORKS “The enterprise perimeter is no longer a location; it is a set of While CDNs focus on the delivery of media dynamic edge capabilities delivered when needed as a service from content, modern edge networks go one step the cloud.” further by facilitating networking and network security at the edge. In a traditional “hub-and- – Gartner, The Future of Network Security Is in the Cloud spoke” network architecture, all applications would be hosted in a corporate data center, which users and branch offices could access through a localized private network or VPN. This gave rise to the “castle-and-moat” security model: protect the network perimeter with firewalls and trust users within the perimeter by default. In recent years, the growth of cloud applications and distributed workforces have challenged these legacy models. The attack surface has broadened as there are fewer users and applications residing within the castle. As a result, new cloud-based security models have emerged. Secure access service edge (SASE), combines software-defined networking and network security into a single solution. Gartner estimates that by 2024, at least 40% of enterprises will have explicit strategies to adopt SASE, up from less than 1% “Employees have left the building. Applications have left the at year-end 2018. SASE is being leveraged to building. And we now live in this distributed world of applications implement Zero Trust models, which, in and employees… The security stack needs to become ubiquitous and contrast to legacy castle-and-moat models, omnipresent… and delivered at the edge.” removes all trust assumptions when users connect to applications. Edge networks are – Dr. Robert Blumofe, Akamai, EVP, Platform & GM, Enterprise uniquely positioned to provide these cloud- based security solutions, which won’t just enhance security, but will reduce internet backhaul requirements, saving on costs and reducing latency. Importantly, the success of these new security models is not dependent on the demise of the corporate data center. The corporate data center will still exist, but no longer as the center of the network universe. Cloudflare and Fastly are two disruptors in the edge networking space. Both have CDN heritage and have established hundreds of POPs around the globe. Cloudflare currently has about 200 POPs, while Fastly maintains about half of that. Zscaler, an edge network focused solely on security, has an edge footprint with over 150 edge locations. Meanwhile, Akamai, a legacy CDN vendor, has over 325,000 servers in more than 4,000 locations. Here, we believe, rests some of the biggest misconceptions of edge networks. While some argue the more, the better, Cloudflare and Fastly edge servers are much more powerful and capable of caching much more content. This results in much higher cache hit rates, and ultimately, a faster network. -3-
Even more important than cache hit rates, “Think of legacy POPs like convenience stores. You’ll find one on Cloudflare and Fastly were architected from the corner of almost every street. Since they’re close to you, you can the ground up to enable programmability. Both reach these stores quickly, but they only have the bare essentials. Cloudflare and Fastly built software-defined That means you may need to go online to order the rest of the items networks on top of commodity hardware. To on your shopping list and have them shipped overnight (analogous to loosely quote a Fastly engineer at the 2015 a cache miss forcing a request back to the origin server). Fastly Altitude conference: rather than the Alternatively, you can go to a large supermarket a few miles away (in network being the infrastructure, the network this analogy, this would be one of Fastly’s powerful POPs). It may is now the application. This enables features take slightly longer to reach, but the vast selection means that you that are highly valuable to engineers, like have a much better chance of finding everything on your shopping list quickly (nearly everything is cached, which results in a highercustomized cache policy and real-time cache hit ratio).” performance monitoring. The capabilities of these edge networks have attracted a customer – Fastly Blog, June 8, 2016 base including some the world’s most sophisticated internet and software properties, like Shopify, Google, Pinterest and Slack. As consumer use cases evolve, which they surely will with the advent of 5G and IoT, the programmable nature of edge networks will allow them to continuously adapt through software iteration. IDC estimates the networking and security market to reach $47B in 2022. Edge networks have tremendous growth runway as companies shift spending away from on-premises networking and security hardware and towards cloud services. However, there’s an even more exciting opportunity that has only recently become a reality: edge compute. EDGE COMPUTE – A NEW PARADIGM Jim Gray, famed Microsoft researcher, was decades ahead of his time when in the mid- 1990s he predicted that advancements in “As sensor datasets grow larger, traditional data management computing would drive a “data deluge”, which techniques (such as loading data into a SQL database and then would overwhelm existing computing querying it) will clearly prove inadequate. To avoid moving massive architectures and necessitate a “fourth amounts of data around, computations will need to be distributed and paradigm”. The framework Gray put forward pushed as close to data sources as possible.” to accommodate this data deluge was a distributed architecture in which compute was – The Fourth Paradigm, Data-Intensive Scientific Discovery brought to the data, rather than data to the compute. It is helpful to view the potential for edge compute through the lens of the Von Neumann Bottleneck. The Von Neumann Bottleneck is a computing concept that suggests total processing power of a computer is limited by the bandwidth of the “While distributed CDNs mostly revolve around storage caches, enabling applications with edge compute extends this to both network. In other words, a computing compute and storage, and the more general cloud service stack architecture is only as strong as its weakest necessary to on-board and run 3 party applications.” rd link – a powerful CPU can’t overcome a slow rate-of-transfer to deliver low-latency. – FCC Technological Advisory Council: 5G Edge Computing NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang has used this Whitepaper rationale extensively to justify the company’s acquisition of networking company Mellanox: “When NVIDIA accelerates compute by 10- 50x, moving data becomes the bottleneck.” -4-
Bottlenecks in the computing value chain have evolved with every computing paradigm. The “As we look toward the future dominated by much simpler, lower original mainframes were expensive and took power ‘things’ with minimal storage and with the requirement of a up considerable space. Compute resources 10-year battery life, this phenomenon of shifting computing power to were scarce and had to be shared amongst the cloud will be accelerated. The network will again become the multiple users. During this era, the bottleneck bottleneck.” was compute. With the introduction of multi- user operating systems, like Unix, multiple – The Future X Network, A Bell Labs Perspective terminals could share the compute resources of a single mainframe. The bottleneck was no longer compute, but the network. The network bottleneck was removed with the introduction of TCP/IP networking, which enabled local area networks and eventually the “network of networks”, the internet. As data centers scaled out to accommodate the growth of the internet, the bottleneck was no longer compute or networking, but locating useful information in a cyberspace defined by abundance. This void was eventually filled by browsers and search engines. Today, most mobile and desktop applications continue to rely on these centralized data centers for processing data. However, due to the physical distance between cloud data centers and endpoints, there are limitations to the speed of light that introduce a degree of latency that is not tolerable for certain use cases. In a future of ubiquitous 5G providing low-latency wireless connectivity for the “last mile”, paired with the unlimited compute resources residing in the cloud, the “middle mile” network will, once again, become the bottleneck. This is what the next iteration of cloud, edge compute, is seeking to solve. By “As enterprises complete the shift to the cost-saving measures moving compute to edge servers, minimizing provided by the central cloud, their next frontier is to move logic, the distance from endpoint devices, latency compute power and security to the edge in order to more effectively can be dramatically improved. Edge networks meet their customers in the digital-first way that consumers have are in a unique position to enable edge come to expect and rely on.” computing by leveraging their globally distributed, powerful, and programmable edge – Fastly Q3 2020 shareholder letter networks. SERVERLESS AT THE EDGE Exhibit 5: Evolution of computing architectures New software architectures have emerged with each computing paradigm. Prior to the introduction of virtual machines (VMs), a single server would be dedicated to a single application. VMs significantly increased the efficiency of compute resources by making it possible to host multiple environments on one server. Containers Source: Cloudflare increased efficiency even further, using a fraction of the memory of a VM and allowing developers to package applications into units that can be deployed in any operating environment. Serverless computing is an even more efficient, lightweight architecture. Serverless, sometimes referred to as Function-as-a-Service (FaaS), completely abstracts infrastructure management tasks and allows developers to focus on writing code and deploying it everywhere at once. Developers don’t have to pick a cloud availability region or scale up an instance. While servers are still responsible for executing the code, no specific machine is assigned to a given function or application. In a serverless environment, servers aren’t continuously running. Instead, code is only executed when called upon, eliminating the problem of idle server capacity. Developers are charged based on usage rather than bandwidth or number of servers. Serverless architectures are inherently scalable and generally lower cost (users don’t pay for idle server time). The IDC expects the Function-as-a-Service market to grow at a 27% CAGR to reach over $10B in 2023. -5-
Exhibit 6: Serverless response times Source: Cloudflare Serverless computing is not a new concept. AWS Lambda, Amazon’s serverless platform, was launched in 2014. Microsoft (Azure Functions) and Google (Cloud Functions) have competing offerings. What is new, however, is running a serverless platform at the edge. Cloudflare launched its Workers platform in 2018. Fastly’s Compute@Edge recently transitioned from beta to limited availability. And Akamai launched its EdgeWorkers in October of 2019. It is notable, as illustrated in “Because of the latency to the cloud, there will be what we call Exhibit 6, that next-gen edge networks, like edge clouds, you’ll start to see cloud extending itself very close Cloudflare, can deliver significantly lower latency to the network to take advantage of the low-latency you have compared to public cloud offerings, including with 5G… you could do computational offload, for example… Amazon’s Lambda@Edge. Part of Cloudflare’s we think it is going to be a very significant driver of the future.” advantage lies in the architecture of the software (Cloudflare is built on V8 isolates, in comparison to – Dr. James Thompson, EVP, Engineering & CTO, Qualcomm, most serverless platforms that are container-based). 2019 Analyst Day What we are really describing here, platforms for developers to build and deploy applications at the edge for low- latency use cases, could be considered new type of cloud: “edge clouds”. -6-
EDGE COMPUTING USE CASES Exhibit 7: 5G a catalyst for new technologies Edge computing is not a new concept. Akamai launched an edge computing platform in 2002 (only to shut it down due to lack of traction). So why the excitement today? Key technologies, such as 5G, IoT and software defined networking, are converging and reaching critical inflection points. These technologies will require massive amounts of low-latency processing in order to deliver on the vision of ambient computing. There is a bit of a chicken-or-egg dilemma with 5G and IoT applications. Developers can be hesitant to write applications ahead of the deployment of widely available 5G networks. Meanwhile, without applications to run on the network, it can be hard to attract the capital to build out the physical infrastructure. But after many years of preparation and anticipation, the rollout of 5G is happening. Just as Uber would have been hard to fathom prior to 4G, the speed, latency and massive connectivity of 5G will provide the foundation for the next generation of developers to spawn entirely new categories of applications. With the consumer well served by existing applications, many edge applications will be tailored to machines rather than humans. Edge computing could potentially address any use case requiring low-latency, two- Source: Deloitte Insights way bandwidth. Autonomous vehicles, drones and industrial robots will all carry a certain amount of local compute capabilities, but the onboard compute will need to be continuously retrieving real-time insights (e.g. navigation maps, weather) delivered from edge servers. Smart cities could be retrofitted with security surveillance and traffic management systems. Hospitals could deploy more sophisticated patient monitoring systems and remote robotic surgery tools. Farms could utilize precision agriculture and soil condition sensing to improve yield. Predictive maintenance on heavy machinery could improve productivity and safety. Voice recognition and natural language processing could be nearly Source: Fastly Q2 2020 Investor Presentation instantaneous, making these applications more practical for more use cases, like customer service centers and smart home devices. And lastly, edge compute might be the key unlock for video game streaming, which has so far failed to gain widespread adoption due to latency issues. AR and VR applications would be able to render their surroundings in real-time, avoiding the common motion sickness caused by just 15 milliseconds of latency. While it is easy to get excited about autonomous vehicles and drones, the more mundane use cases might offer the biggest near-term opportunities. Compliance is one such underappreciated near-term use case. Historically, bits have flowed unencumbered across borders, but the global internet is becoming increasingly fragmented. This goes well beyond China’s Great Firewall to now include Europe with “Incoming data can be triaged and acted upon at the point of the implementation of the General Data collection. This can deliver greater security and privacy by keeping critical information such as personally identifiable data at the Protection Regulation (GDPR). The growing endpoint rather than moving over networks, as well as meeting data trend towards data sovereignty will require all residency requirements mandating that personal data must be citizens’ data to be stored and processed confined within specific jurisdictions.” within a country’s borders. The centralized nature of today’s public clouds makes them – Deloitte Insights ill-equipped to comply with these requirements. Meanwhile, the distributed, -7-
programmable nature of edge networks makes them uniquely suited to the task. Matthew Prince, CEO of Cloudflare, sees compliance as one of the killer features for edge computing: “as governments impose new data sovereignty regulations, having a network that, with a single platform, spans every regulated geography will be critical for companies seeking to keep and process locally to comply with these new laws while remaining efficient.” EDGE AS ESG Exhibit 9: Data center efficiency has plateaued Edge networks also have a lot to offer ESG-minded investors. In addition to enabling security, a central feature of these networks, edge networks also have potential to make a positive environmental impact. Some, like economist Jeremy Rifkin, believe IoT paired with an “energy internet” could serve as the foundation for a more efficient, distributed, renewable energy infrastructure. Edge networks could serve as the backbone for these smart grids, monitoring energy consumption, managing energy distribution, and orchestrating information management Source: Google 2019 Environmental Report across the entire value chain. Energy consumption for commercial buildings could be optimized. Scarce natural resources, like water, could be more effectively monitored from collection to delivery and consumption. Edge networks could also reduce energy consumption in data centers. A recent study published by the academic journal Science estimates that data centers comprised 1% of global electricity consumption in 2018. Though data center operators have become more energy efficient over the last decade, efficiency gains have plateaued, as seen in Exhibit 9. Moving forward, data center energy demand, driven by growth in data and compute demands, is likely to rise faster than energy efficiency gains. Edge networks can help reduce energy consumption in a few ways. By reducing the volume of traffic traversing the network to the origin server, edge networks reduce not only latency, but also cost and energy consumption. Meanwhile, serverless computing improves server utilization rates compared to a virtual machine, which requires reserved capacity. SIZING EDGE COMPUTE Exhibit 10: Edge compute market to grow at a 37% CAGR These are just some of the edge use cases that drive the “data deluge” forecasted by Jim Gray. The IDC estimates the global “datasphere”, fueled by the explosion of connected devices, will grow from 33 zettabytes (33 trillion gigabytes) in 2018 to 175 zettabytes by 2025. Gartner predicts that data generated outside of data centers will grow from 10% of total data in 2018 to 50% in 2022 and 75% by 2025. If public clouds were to absorb all of this data, there would be tremendous bandwidth and infrastructure costs as origin servers would need to scale with the growth in data. Edge networks can help. By processing more data locally and Source: Grand View Research filtering out irrelevant data, edge networks can reduce the compute burden on origin servers. The explosion in data is driving edge industry growth. Gartner expects that over 50% of large enterprises will deploy at least six edge computing use cases by the end of 2023, up from less than 1% of enterprises in 2019. The IDC predicts that by 2023, over 50% of new enterprise IT infrastructure deployed will be at the edge rather than corporate datacenters, and that edge networks will represent 60% of all deployed infrastructures. Putting into dollar context, Grand View Research estimates the edge computing market to grow at a 39% CAGR to reach $43 billion by 2027, with software being the fastest growing sub-segment. Other industry experts, such as Mark Thiele, CEO of edgevana -8-
and thought leader in the space, believe “the $43 billion number by 2027 is off by 300% and that in the same 14 years it took cloud/SaaS/PaaS to reach $218 billion, all Edge services will be worth closer to $300 billion.” While the exact addressable market can be debated, it is fair to say the opportunity is somewhere between big and huge. THE RACE TO THE EDGE Edge computing remains in its nascency, but with the catalyst of 5G on the horizon, operators are jockeying for position. Perhaps the most important leading indicator of success for any new computing platform is developer mindshare. Steve Ballmer’s infamous “developers, developers, developers!” chant at Microsoft’s 2000 Windows Conference highlights just how critical developers are. The influence of developers within organizations will only continue to increase as digital transformation accelerates and every business transforms into a digital business. Edge developer data is scant, but some recent datapoints stand out. Cloudflare had more than 27,000 Source: OliverGeary developers write and deploy their first Cloudflare Workers application in the third quarter, up from 15,000 a year ago. Further, more developers deploy code on Workers each month than every other edge computing platform combined. Cloudflare clearly has early developer momentum. One should never underestimate the resources and technical capabilities of the hyperscalers, Amazon, Microsoft and Google. Fortunately, today’s modern edge networks have some structural advantages. First, they can claim neutrality, as they don’t compete with their customers the way Amazon might in retail, or Google might in digital advertising. Additionally, the modern edge networks are truly cloud agnostic, ideal for developers with multi-cloud environments. CONCLUSION While some hypothesize that edge networks could subsume public cloud, the more likely role of edge networks will be to augment “Critically, the intelligent edge is not a replacement for enterprise centralized clouds. Much of the “data deluge” and hyperscale cloud data centers but a way to distribute tasks that is expected from connected devices will be across the network based on timeliness, connectivity, and security.” incremental, not cannibalistic, to the data residing in public clouds. Furthermore, there – Deloitte Insight are certain use cases that benefit from data centralization. Big data analytics and machine learning are best suited for public cloud. “Hybrid” cloud has historically described the mix of workloads between on- premises and public cloud. In the future, the definition of hybrid is likely to extend further to encapsulate edge networks. Workloads will be optimized across these various environments, each serving a specific purpose. While total addressable market can be debated, edge networks are in a unique position to capture share of the $47 billion networking and security market and $43 billion edge compute market. Christopher Ward, CFA © Gabelli Funds 2020 (914) 921-7738 cward@gabelli.com -9-
One Corporate Center Rye, NY 10580 Gabelli Funds Tel (914) 921-5000 Fax 914-921-5098 This whitepaper was prepared by Christopher Ward, CFA. The examples cited herein are based on public information and we make no representations regarding their accuracy or usefulness as precedent. The Research Analyst’s views are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. The information in this report represent the opinions of the individual Research Analyst’s as of the date hereof and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results, or investments advice. The views expressed may differ from other Research Analyst or of the Firm as a whole. As of October 31, 2020, affiliates of GAMCO Investors, Inc. beneficially owned less than 1% of all other companies mentioned. This whitepaper is not an offer to sell any security nor is it a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, sales charges and expense of the fund carefully before investing. For more information, visit our website at: www.gabelli.com or call: 800-GABELLI 800-422-3554 • 914-921-5000 • Fax 914-921-5098 • info@gabelli.com - 10 -
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