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2Ja0nuary
20–Mar
Early Warning Early Action Report
ch
on Food Security and Agriculture
REQUIRED CITATION
FAO. 2020. Early Warning Early Action Report on Food Security and Agriculture (January–March 2020). Rome.
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ISBN 978-92-5-132129-4
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Overview The Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) Report on Food This report represents a summary and a prioritization of analysis
Security and Agriculture is produced by the Food and Agriculture provided by FAO’s corporate and joint multi-agency information and
Organization of the United Nations (FAO). It provides a quarterly early warning systems:
Efficient humanitarian forward-looking analysis of major disaster risks to food security • Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and
assistance requires and agriculture, specifically highlighting: Agriculture (GIEWS)
anticipation. For FAO, • potential new emergencies resulting from imminent • Food Chain Crisis and Emergency Prevention System
this means harnessing disaster threats (FCC-EMPRES)
risk information systems • new developments in countries already affected by protracted • Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and
to act faster and avert crises which are likely to cause a further deterioration of Cadre Harmonisé (CH)
acute hunger. food insecurity
In addition to these, a number of other external sources are
Qu Dongyu This report is part of FAO’s efforts to systematically link early consulted. The list of sources is available on page vii.
FAO Director-General warnings to anticipatory actions. By providing specific early action
recommendations for each country, the report aims to prompt Countries with ongoing emergency response efforts are not
FAO and partners to proactively mitigate and/or prevent disasters included in the report, unless there are signs of potential
before they start to adversely impact food security. significant deterioration. An overview of countries worldwide with
humanitarian response plans or emergency plans is provided on
High risk page vi.
Countries are categorized as “high risk” when there is a high
likelihood of a new emergency or a significant deterioration of the More details on the risk ranking methodology and the early action
current situation with potentially severe effects on agriculture and recommendations are provided on page ii.
food security.
The Global Report on Food Crises 2019 highlights that around
On watch 113 million people in 53 countries faced acute food insecurity
Countries categorized as “on watch” instead have a comparatively in 2018. Urgent humanitarian assistance is required to save lives
more moderate likelihood and/or potential impact, requiring and protect livelihoods. For more information go to:
close monitoring. ▶ www.fsinplatform.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/
GRFC_2019-Full_Report.pdf
The 2020 issue of the Global Report will be published in April.
January–March 2020 | i
Methodology The countries and regions flagged in this report are selected Famine declared and famine likely
through a consultative process led by early warning focal points As per the IPC new guidelines, ‘famine’ classification is mentioned
from the EWEA, GIEWS, FCC-EMPRES and IPC teams. The main steps when famine is currently occurring in an area and at least 20 percent
Risk value of the process are: of the population (or 10 000 people) are facing catastrophic
1. Shortlist countries flagged by FAO’s corporate early warning conditions. The new classification ‘famine likely’ is mentioned when
High risk systems, IPC and Cadre Harmonisé famine is likely occurring and while evidence indicates a famine, it is
FAO and partners should start 2. Triangulate risk information with other datasets and external not adequate to confirm or deny the condition. Furthermore, when
implementing early actions on a early warning systems further deterioration of the situation might lead to a risk of famine,
no-regrets basis 3. Verify and rank the final list of risks based on the following three this aspect is highlighted in the global risk map and narrative of the
criteria: report as ‘risk of famine’.
On watch • Likelihood of occurrence is classified into five levels (very
FAO should strengthen corporate unlikely, unlikely, moderately likely, likely and very likely). Recommendations for early actions
monitoring, preparedness and plan The term likelihood applies to the probability that, within Early action recommendations are indicated for each risk that is
for the implementation of certain the time period considered, either a new disaster risk or the featured in this report. They outline a range of the most appropriate
low cost early actions significant deterioration of the situation will occur. interventions over the coming months which could prevent,
• Potential impact is classified into five levels (negligible, mitigate or prepare for the potential impact of a specific disaster on
minor, moderate, severe and critical). The impact is analysed the agriculture sector and livelihoods. The interventions are also
both in terms of magnitude (the number of potentially sector specific and non-binding in nature. Early actions can vary
affected people and/or geographical extent of the impact on from activities aiming to protect livelihood assets to planning and
agriculture, livelihoods and food security) and severity (the preparatory activities. The recommendations are developed
gravity of the impact on agriculture, livelihoods and food by FAO through a consultative process involving technical experts
security, especially in relation to pre-existing vulnerability and FAO country, subregional and regional offices.
and food insecurity).
• Country capacity to cope with and respond to potential Global risk map
disasters or deteriorated situations is also classified into five The map on page iii provides a visualization of major disaster risks
levels (very low, low, medium, high and very high). The Index to food security and agriculture in the indicated reporting period.
for Risk Management (INFORM) is further applied to measure When a new emergency or deterioration of the current situation
the coping capacity of a country. is very likely and might have severe impacts, it is indicated as
“high risk”. In case of moderate to high likelihood and moderate
and significant impact, the risk is listed as “on watch”. Ongoing
humanitarian crises, such as protracted emergencies, are not
highlighted in this report unless a deterioration is likely.
ii | Early Warning Early Action report
Global risk map: January–March 2020
Legend
High risk – country On watch – country
High risk – region On watch – region
January–March 2020 | iii
Cyclone
seasonality
This map provides an overview of
the timeline of cyclone formations
and their historical tracks. There
are seven tropical cyclone basins,
with specific peak timings during
the calendar year. When available,
the seasonal forecast (below- or
above-average cyclone activity) is
also provided.
Tropical cyclone basin names
North Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea1 Southwest Indian basin
Northeast Pacific basin Southeast Indian/Australian Basin
Northwest Pacific basin Australian/Southwest Pacific basin
North Indian basin Peak
Seasonality calendar
1
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) extended
range forecast for North Atlantic hurricane
activity in 2020 anticipates a season with
activity close to the long-term norm. The
forecast spans the period from 1 June
to 30 November 2020 and employs data
through to the end of November 2019.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2019
iv | Early Warning Early Action reportAnimal health
threats
potentially
affecting
food security
This map highlights selected
countries facing animal health
threats during the reporting period.
Countries are only highlighted
if the threat is considered to
have the potential to impact
food security.*
For a complete list of countries
and threats, and more detailed
information see:
www.fao.org/food-chain-crisis/
early-warning-bulletin/en/
Risk value Diseases
High risk AI Avian influenza
*The information used to compile this
map was extracted from the Food Chain Moderate risk ASF African swine fever
Crisis Management Framework (FCC)
Early Warning Bulletin for the period FMD Foot and mouth disease
January–March 2020. The information
was compiled as of 20 December 2019.
LSD Lumpy skin disease
Please consult the bulletin for a more extensive PPR Peste des petits ruminants
analysis of threats to animal health globally.
RVF Rift Valley fever
January–March 2020 | vEWEA risks
within
the wider
humanitarian
context
The EWEA report exclusively
highlights new emergencies in food
and agriculture and ongoing crises
in which a potential significant
deterioration is likely. The report
does not cover ongoing crises
with no indication of an upcoming
deterioration. This map shows
countries flagged by the report
compared to countries with
Humanitarian Response Plans
in 2020, in which we do not
foresee a marked deterioration.
Countries with Humanitarian Response Plans and no EWEA risks
Countries with Humanitarian Response Plans and with EWEA risks
EWEA risks that do not have Humanitarian Response Plans
Source: Global Humanitarian Overview 2020, OCHA
vi | Early Warning Early Action reportSources of This report consolidates information provided by GIEWS,
FCC-EMPRES and IPC, as well as from external sources of
information information. The analytical basis for the prioritization of countries
and the major sources of information and data presented in the
report are three main groups of datasets:
• countries requiring external assistance and the food security
situation of low-income food-deficit countries*
• forecasting threats to the food chain affecting food security in
countries and regions**
• IPC and Cadre Harmonisé acute food security analysis
Additional information and data presented in the report are
consolidated from the following external sources (including
but not limited to):
• reports and bulletins by agencies of the United Nations (UN),
in particular the United Nations Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Office of the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), United Nations Children’s
Fund (UNICEF), World Food Programme’s (WFP) Vulnerability
Analysis and Mapping Unit and the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO)
• updates from external sources including Index for Risk
Management (INFORM), Famine Early Warning Systems Network
(FEWS NET), International Research Institute for Climate
and Society – Columbia University (IRI), Reliefweb, local and
international media
*Crop Prospects and Food Situation Bulletin,
and Crop and Food Security Assessment
Missions (CFSAM), GIEWS
**Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin,
FCC-EMPRES, Animal Production and Health
Early Warning Systems Team
January–March 2020 | viiHigh levels of insecurity in parts of Burkina Faso,
Mali and the Niger have been severely affecting
agropastoral activities and market functioning.
Population displacement and food insecurity are
strongly increasing, especially in Burkina Faso.
Vulnerable displaced people, host communities and
people in insecure areas are likely to require food
assistance and livelihood support for most of 2020.
©FAO/Luis TatoHigh risk
The matrix provides an overview
of the ranking of risks featured in Cabo Verde, the Gambia,
this report. The risks are prioritized Mauritania and Senegal
based on the severity, likelihood PAGE 10 Burkina Faso,
and magnitude of their impact, Haiti Mali and the Niger
PAGE 2
while also balanced against the PAGE 8
countries’ individual coping
capacity. Nigeria Zimbabwe
PAGE 14 PAGE 4
In order of intensity, for the
Critical
period January–March 2020,
the high risk section includes:
• Burkina Faso, Mali
LIKELIHOOD
and the Niger
• Zimbabwe
• South Sudan
• Haiti
• Cabo Verde, the Gambia, Negligible Critical
IMPACT
Mauritania and Senegal
• Yemen
African swine fever South Sudan
• Nigeria
outbreak in Asia PAGE 6
• Desert Locust outbreak PAGE 18
• African swine fever Desert Locust outbreak Yemen
outbreak in Asia PAGE 16 PAGE 12Risk overview crisis-affected areas where there has been a 50‑percent drop in
land cultivation compared with the previous season.
• The food security and livelihood crisis is escalating at an • Despite close‑to‑average rainfall across the three countries,
alarming pace across Burkina Faso, Mali and the Niger. High limited pasture conditions are observed in several areas.
levels of insecurity in parts of the three countries have been In the Niger, vegetation deficits are recorded particularly in
Burkina Faso, affecting agropastoral activities throughout the entire season Diffa, Maradi, Tahoua, Tillabéri and Zinder, with a national deficit
as well as market functioning. reaching over 11.3 million tonnes of dry matter. The western
Mali and • Inter-community and armed group violence has been Kayes region of Mali is also affected by pasture deficits, as well as
extremely frequent in numerous regions of Mali (Gao and several areas of the Boucle du Mouhoun, East and Center‑North
the Niger Mopti), Burkina Faso (Centre-North, East, North, Sahel and regions of Burkina Faso.
Boucle du Mouhoun) and the Niger (Diffa, Tahoua and Tillaberi).
High levels of insecurity As of December 2019, the unprecedented crisis had led to a
affecting agropastoral sharp increase in the number of displaced people, reaching Potential impact
activities, leading to around 945 000 IDPs and over 270 000 refugees.
increasing displacement • While during October–December food insecurity levels usually • Vulnerable displaced people, host communities and people in
and food insecurity decrease as this period corresponds to the harvest season, insecure areas are likely to require food assistance and livelihood
the latest Cadre Harmonisé analysis (November 2019) points support for most of 2020. The latest Cadre Harmonisé projections
to a worsening situation in all three countries. Figures remain for June–August 2020 are alarming in all three countries,
Over 3.2 million people high and have even doubled compared with the lean season with 1.7 million people severely food insecure (Phases 3–5)
severely food insecure and in the case of Burkina Faso, for instance, reaching 1.2 million in Burkina Faso, 1.1 million in Mali and 1.9 million in the Niger.
4.7 million people projected people. Figures are above the five-year average in the Niger with • The pastoral situation in areas affected by deficits is worrying
to be severely food insecure 1.4 million people severely food insecure and in Mali, reaching particularly in Burkina Faso and the Niger, as most of these areas
during the lean season 648 000 people. are also affected by conflict. In particular, in the Centre‑Nord
(June–August 2020) • While cereal production prospects in each of the three countries and East regions of Burkina Faso, the significant concentration
in the three countries are generally either within the average or above the five‑year of displaced pastoralists with livestock in areas with limited
average, insecurity has strongly impacted agricultural production resources poses an additional risk, affecting social cohesion.
1.2 million people severely in affected areas. In Mopti, for instance, a 49‑percent decrease in • Insecurity and conflict are likely to strongly affect pastoralists’
food insecure in Burkina Faso production is expected. In Burkina Faso, agricultural activities for movements and access to resources in the coming months,
(October–December 2019) – the 2019/20 cropping season have dropped by 20–70 percent in which mark the start of the dry season.
double compared with the
2019 lean season
Nearly 1 million internally
displaced persons (IDPs) in the
three countries as a result of
escalation of conflict Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2 | Early Warning Early Action reportThe food security and Recommended early actions Current acute food insecurity situation
livelihood crisis is (October–December 2019)
escalating at an alarming From January to March, the following early actions are recommended
pace across the three in order to provide immediate livelihood support to displaced, host
countries. High levels and refugee populations, as well as to contribute to reducing the risk
of insecurity in parts of of conflict over resources. In Burkina Faso, it is crucial to strengthen
Burkina Faso, Mali and rapid evaluation and response mechanisms to address the needs of MALI THE NIGER
the Niger have been affected populations.
affecting agropastoral
activities across the entire Cash and food assistance
season as well as market • Scale-up food and nutritional assistance to vulnerable people
functioning. Population in need among IDP and host communities. B U R K I N A FA S O
displacement and food • Safeguard IDP and host communities’ livelihoods through
insecurity are also unconditional cash transfers, and support women and youth
0 160 km
increasing, particularly in in initiating income‑generating activities.
Burkina Faso. Displaced Projected acute food insecurity situation
people and host Crops (June–August 2020)
communities will require • Support IDP and host populations through cash-for-work
continued food assistance activities focused on the rehabilitation of rural infrastructure
and livelihood support and degraded lands.
throughout 2020. • Provide vegetable seeds and agricultural inputs for
home‑gardening. THE NIGER
• Boost dry-season agricultural production in Burkina Faso.
Livestock
• Promote commercial destocking for weak animals in areas with
MALI
high concentration of livestock and limited access to pasture. BURKINA
FA S O
• Provide water and feed to core-breeding stock, and establish
0 160 km
feed stocks.
• Support the provision of animal health services, particularly
vaccination and deworming. CH phase classification
high risk
• Rehabilitate pastoral wells by prioritizing solar-energy-based 5 - Famine 3 - Crisis 1 - Minimal Inadequate evidence
equipment.
4 - Emergency 2 - Stressed Not analysed
• Advocate for access to pasture and water for displaced
populations’ livestock.
Source: Cadre Harmonisé, November 2019
January–March 2020 | 3Risk overview in animal diseases and limited veterinary support, with a
significant proportion of livestock deaths attributed to these
• Zimbabwe has experienced deteriorating food insecurity over two factors. Severe drought conditions have also affected
the past two years, due chiefly to macroeconomic difficulties livestock body conditions and contributed to losses of animals.
and significant shortfalls in cereal production caused by a severe For example, the national cattle mortality rate for 2018/19 was
Zimbabwe drought and Cyclone Idai in 2019. As a result, humanitarian at 18 percent – about 15 percent higher than an average year.
needs are increasing in the country. • Between October and December 2019, an estimated 3.6 million
Deteriorating macroeconomic • Since October 2018, foreign currency deficits and the people were in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) level of food insecurity
conditions likely to continue plummeting value of the Zimbabwean currency have caused or worse and required urgent assistance. Most vulnerable
and dry conditions forecast import costs to rise. As of November 2019, Zimbabwe had households are considered to have depleted their food stocks,
for a second consecutive recorded a high inflation rate of 440 percent. while hyperinflation further hampers their purchasing power
season • Macroeconomic difficulties have also hampered the country’s and food access.
ability to access grains from the international market, with
further adverse effects on domestic supplies and prices.
The 2018/19 cropping season For example, bread and rice have registered their highest prices Potential impact
harvest is estimated to be since the period of hyperinflation in 2008, leading to severe
40 percent below the constraints on household access to food. • For the October 2019 to March 2020 rainy season, estimates
five‑year average • In addition, adverse weather conditions ranging from substantial show some areas receiving between 9 and 40 percent below
rainfall deficits to the impact of Cyclone Idai in eastern provinces their long-term average rainfall. This has likely led to delays
Around 5.5 million have caused a sharp drop in the 2019 maize output. Limited in planting and a reduction in planted area and labour
people in rural areas will be access to agricultural inputs and outbreaks of pest diseases opportunities, especially in areas severely affected during
in need of food and livelihood including fall armyworm have also affected production. the previous season, which includes parts of Manicaland,
assistance between January Estimated at 800 000 tonnes, the harvest for the 2018/19 cropping Mashonaland West, Masvingo, Matabeleland North and
and March 2020 season is around 40 percent below the five‑year average. Midlands. Current climate forecasts point to a higher chance of
• Furthermore, households relying on livestock as their main below-average rains, as well as above-average temperatures for
Food insecurity likely to affect source of livelihood have had to contend with an increase the remainder of the season (January–March).
2.2 million people in
urban areas
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
4 | Early Warning Early Action reportOver the past two years, • The ongoing macroeconomic challenges, increasing food prices Livestock
Zimbabwe has experienced and cash shortages are also likely to continue to affect the most • Provide necessary measures to control tick‑borne diseases, in
deteriorating food security vulnerable in urban and rural areas, further increasing their food particular theileriosis, which has killed more than 80 000 cattle
and significant shortfalls in expenditure. since December 2018.
cereal production, due to • With prospects of a foreign currency shortage – mostly reflecting • Rehabilitate or establish community watering points for livestock.
macroeconomic difficulties, diminished export revenues – the country is likely to continue • Distribute poultry and small ruminants among the most
a severe drought and experiencing difficulties in procuring sufficient grain supplies or food‑insecure households in rural and (where feasible)
Cyclone Idai in 2019. As agricultural inputs from international markets. urban areas.
a result, humanitarian • According to the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment • Distribute animal feed and mineral supplements to vulnerable
needs are increasing in Committee, about 5.5 million people will be in need of food and pastoralists and livestock holders to keep their core breeding
the country. livelihood assistance at the peak of the lean season between stock alive, especially in western parts of the country.
January and March 2020 – around 3.1 million people more than
the same time last year. In urban areas, food insecurity is likely to
affect 2.2 million people. Acute food insecurity situation
(October–December 2019)
Recommended early actions
Mashonaland
Mashonaland Central
Forecast rainfall deficits combined with deteriorating ZA M B I A
West
macroeconomic conditions and the impact of the El Niño‑induced
Midlands
drought of 2018 call for early action to prevent further deterioration Mashonaland
East
M OZA M B I Q U E
of food security conditions. Early actions should aim to support Matabeleland
North
off-season crop production and protect livestock throughout the Manicaland
lean season in the most at-risk areas, including the provinces B OTS W A N A Masvingo
of Manicaland, Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland East, Matabeleland
South
Mashonaland West, Masvingo, Matabeleland North and Midlands.
0 100 km
Crops SOUTH AFRICA
• Distribute fast-maturing nutritious vegetable seeds to the most
food-insecure households for garden production in rural and IPC phase classification
(where feasible) urban areas.
high risk
5 - Famine 3 - Crisis 1 - Minimal Inadequate evidence
• Provide superior storage equipment (e.g. hermetic bags) and train
4 - Emergency 2 - Stressed Not analysed Urban settlement
vulnerable smallholder farmers in managing post-harvest losses.
Source: IPC, August 2019
January–March 2020 | 5Risk overview
• Some 4.54 million people (39 percent of the population) production, as well as an increase in some livestock diseases
were projected to remain in Crisis or worse levels of food and a more favourable environment for others. The floods
insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above) during the September resulted in the substantial destruction of pastures and animal
South Sudan to December 2019 harvest period, including 875 000 people deaths due to starvation.
in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). This is expected to increase to • The Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in
Widespread flooding likely 5.5 million people between January and April 2020. Duk, the Republic of South Sudan, signed in September 2018, resulted
to worsen an already dire Longochuk, Maiwut and Ulang are of particular concern, with in significant security improvements. However, 1.47 million
humanitarian situation more than 20 percent of the populations in these counties people continue to be internally displaced. As the next rainy
facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) level of food insecurity. The IPC season sets in, an escalation of conflict due to cattle raiding is
analysis does not take into account the full impact of recent likely to occur.
5.5 million people likely flooding that occurred in September and October. • In Juba, prices of maize and sorghum increased by 35 and
to face Crisis or worse levels • Heavy rainfall triggered widespread floods that have affected 50 percent, respectively, between June and October 2019.
of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 over 900 000 people, of whom about 420 000 have been Prices in October were exceptionally steep, at 60 percent higher
or above) between January displaced. Significant flood‑induced crop losses were observed, than last year’s levels and more than 15 times above those of
and April 2020 especially in former Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Jonglei, Upper July 2015 (GIEWS).
Nile and Warrap states, which have partly offset the favourable
Over 900 000 people impacts of an increase in planted area compared to the
affected by floods in the previous year and high yields in areas not affected by floods. Potential impact
northern and eastern regions The preliminary results of the joint 2019 FAO/WFP Crop and Food
Security Assessment Mission indicate that 2019 aggregate cereal • Between January and April 2020, 5.5 million people will likely
production is estimated to be higher than the poor 2018 output, face Crisis or worse levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or
but still below the five-year average. above), up 21 percent compared to the September to December
• Flooding has also impacted over 3 million heads of livestock, period. Additionally, 14 counties are projected to face Emergency
causing lifestock deaths, loss of pasture, reduced milk (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, up by ten counties compared to late 2019.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
6 | Early Warning Early Action reportFood insecurity remains Recommended early actions Acute food insecurity situation
at severe levels in (September–December 2019)
South Sudan. The Targeted actions can help prevent further deterioration in food THE SUDAN
most recent IPC analyis security, particularly in areas affected by conflict and flooding. In the
Upper Nile
Abyei
projects that 5.5 million January–March period, early action should support off-season crop
Northern
Unity
people are likely to production and alternative income-generating activities. Potential Western
Bahr el Ghazal
Bahr el Ghazal
face Crisis or worse outbreaks of animal diseases (including zoonoses) following rains
Warrap
ETHIOPIA
Jonglei
levels of food insecurity and flooding should be prevented by providing adequate support
(IPC Phase 3 or above)
Lakes
to vulnerable pastoralists. Given that conflict is a key driver of food THE CENTRAL
AFRICAN
between January and
REPUBL IC
insecurity in South Sudan, early warning activities should factor in
April 2020. This analysis, conflict sensitivity in their design. Western Equatoria Central
Equatoria Eastern Equatoria
however, was completed THE DEM OCRATIC
REPUBL IC
prior to the recent flooding
OF THE CONGO
Crops K ENYA
that has affected over • Distribute fast-maturing crop seeds (cowpea and vegetable) to UGANDA 0 150 km
900 000 people. vulnerable farmers in lowland areas with access to surface water
or residual soil moisture from receding floodwater. Acute food insecurity situation
• Closely monitor crop diseases and pests and train farmers on (January–April 2020)
mitigation measures (e.g. pheromone traps). THE SUDAN
Fisheries Abyei
Unity
Upper Nile
• Distribute fishing kits to flood‑affected and severely Western
Bahr el Ghazal
Northern
Bahr el Ghazal
food‑insecure households in riverine and lake areas to support Warrap
ETHIOPIA
diversified diets and food production. Jonglei
THE CENTRAL Lakes
AFRICAN
Livestock REPUBL IC
• Strengthen solar vaccine cold chain networks and preposition Western Equatoria Central
Equatoria Eastern Equatoria
vaccines and veterinary drugs in locations potentially affected THE DEM OCRATIC
REPUBL IC
by animal disease outbreaks. OF THE CONGO
K ENYA
• Conduct deworming, vaccination and animal treatment UGANDA 0 150 km
campaigns targeting vulnerable pastoralists’ livestock through IPC phase classification
networks of community animal health workers.
high risk
5 - Famine Not analysed At least 25% of households meet
• Enhance Rift Valley fever‑related actions, including surveillance, 4 - Emergency Inadequate evidence 25–50% of caloric needs from
awareness campaigns, training in case of detection, etc. 3 - Crisis Urban settlement
humanitarian food assistance
• Introduce improved (fast-growing) fodder crops, e.g. Sudan grass 2 - Stressed
At least 25% of households meet
for agropastoral households to grow, conserve and feed over 50% of caloric needs from
1 - Minimal humanitarian food assistance
livestock, and total mixed ration to feed livestock.
Source: IPC, August 2019
January–March 2020 | 7Risk overview Potential impact
• A protracted economic crisis and increased insecurity since • According to the latest IPC analysis (October 2019), 4.1 million
September 2019, coupled with dry conditions that affected the people (40 percent of the total population) are projected to be
2018/19 main cropping season, are causing the deterioration severely food insecure during the period going from March to
Haiti of the food security situation in Haiti. Although the socio- June 2020, which includes the lean season (April–May). In the
political situation has slightly improved in most regions since October 2018 analysis, which only included households in rural
Deteriorating food security in mid‑November, allowing for transportation and commercial areas, 2.6 million people were estimated to be severely food
rural and urban areas driven activities to resume, the situation remains highly unpredictable. insecure in March–June 2019 (38 percent of the rural population)
by economic crisis and dry • The latest IPC analysis (October 2019) estimates that nearly compared with 3.1 million (42 percent of the rural population)
conditions 3.7 million people (35 percent of the total population) are during next year’s projection (March–June 2020).
severely food insecure (October 2019–February 2020). This • The political and macroeconomic crisis is expected to further
comprises households in both rural and urban areas. In the reduce households’ already low purchasing power during
Nearly 3.7 million urban area of Port‑au‑Prince, the food security situation is the coming months. Mass protests and episodes of violence
people severely food insecure similar to that in rural areas, or even worse, particularly in the may persist.
(October 2019–February 2020) poorest neighbourhoods of the metropolitan area. Nearly • Seasonal rains have generally been regular since the beginning
one‑third of urban households are estimated be in urgent need of December, with few areas experiencing rainfall deficits. This
4.1 million people of food assistance. could favour the second maize production season. However,
projected to be severely food • The main maize production season in Haiti typically takes the outcome of the second season accounts for only a minor
insecure (March–June 2020) place between March and July. Dry conditions and insecurity portion of annual production and it is expected to only
contributed to a 12.3‑percent reduction in agricultural marginally improve food availability.
production in 2019 compared with already below‑average
levels in 2018.
• Rising staple food prices, with annual food inflation at Recommended early actions
approximately 22.6 percent, a nearly 38‑percent depreciation
of the local currency against the US dollar in 2019 coupled with The combined effect of last year’s El Niño‑induced drought, and
unrest and insecurity, have significantly reduced access to food. of the political and economic crisis is likely to lead to the further
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
8 | Early Warning Early Action reportA protracted economic deterioration of the food security situation unless early actions are Current acute food insecurity situation
crisis, coupled with dry taken. The period from January to March is particularly critical for (October 2019–February 2020)
conditions that affected early action as it precedes the main cropping season. No r th Atl a n tic O cea n
the 2018/19 main Nord-Ouest
cropping season, are Crops
Nord
Nord-Est
causing a significant • Provide timely climate-resilient crop seeds, agricultural tools
deterioration of the food and training on good agricultural practices to vulnerable farmers L’Artibonite
security situation in Haiti. affected by drought in the Artibonite, Grand’Anse, Nippes Centre
The escalation of unrest North‑West and West departments. Ca r ibbea n S ea
Ouest
since September 2019 • Provide timely vegetable seeds, fruit seedlings, agricultural
has resulted in increased tools and technical support to unemployed people (especially Gran d’Anse
Nippes
Ouest
THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC
insecurity. women and girls heads of households) affected by the political Sud Sud-Est
and socio-economic crisis in urban and peri-urban areas of
Cap Haitien, Cayes, Gonaive, Port au Prince and Port de Paix. 0 15 km
Livestock Projected acute food insecurity situation
The following early actions should target severely food-insecure (March–June 2020)
agropastoralists in drought-affected areas in the North-West, No r th Atl a n tic O cea n
North‑East, South-East and Centre departments. Nord-Ouest
• Distribute planting material by March for forage production. Nord
Nord-Est
• Establish mobile veterinary clinics to provide animal health
services to vulnerable livestock producers. L’Artibonite
• Distribute small livestock (goat and poultry). Centre
Ouest
Ca r ibbea n S ea
Cash
• Implement cash-for-work activities targeting vulnerable rural Gran d’Anse
Nippes
Ouest
THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC
households without agricultural land, to rehabilitate and Sud Sud-Est
protect agricultural infrastructure for water management in
drought-affected areas in the Grand’Anse, Nippes, North‑East, 0 15 km
North‑West, South‑East, South and West departments.
high risk
IPC phase classification
Fisheries and aquaculture
• Distribute fishing equipment by March to vulnerable fishing 5 - Famine 3 - Crisis 1 - Minimal Inadequate evidence
households near hill lakes. 4 - Emergency 2 - Stressed Not analysed
Source: IPC, October 2019
January–March 2020 | 9Risk overview Potential impact
• The outcome of the 2019 rainy season was negative in several • The pastoral situation is severe in several areas of Mauritania
countries along the Atlantic coast of West Africa due to poor and Senegal. Limited pasture and availability of water could
and erratic distribution of rainfall, particularly in Cabo Verde, result in reduced livestock production and lead to weak
Cabo Verde, the Gambia, Mauritania and Senegal. purchasing power for agropastoralists. Consequently, people
• The levels of severe food insecurity (October–December 2019) with limited mobility of livestock could experience significant
the Gambia, are alarming due to drought. Cadre Harmonisé figures for livestock losses.
people classified in Phase 3 and above are well over the • Given the vast amount of land affected by rainfall and
Mauritania five‑year average in the Gambia (187 000 people), Mauritania vegetation deficits, there is a higher risk of concentration of
(299 000 people) and in Senegal (359 000 people); and in livestock in areas with resources and of earlier transhumance
and Senegal Cabo Verde there are around 9 870 people in Phase 3. for pastoralists, which will increase the risk of animal diseases
• As of late September, 73 percent of hydro-meteorological as well as conflict over resources. Since October 2019, high
Drought and localized floods stations in Mauritania registered severe rainfall deficits concentrations of animals have already been registered in
affecting agricultural and compared with the long-term average (1981–2010). Along Guidimakha and South-East Gorgol regions of Mauritania, and
livestock production for with delayed rains and dry spells in affected areas, this the situation is likely to worsen.
another consecutive year affected seed germination and crop growth for rainfed crops, • Looking into 2020, Cadre Harmonisé projections for the lean
whose production estimates are 17 percent lower than the season are worrying as the number of people affected by
five‑year average. severe food insecurity (Phase 3 and above) between June
845 000 people • In Senegal, the negative outcome of the rainy season triggered and August 2020 are well above the average in the Gambia
severely food insecure funding from the African Risk Capacity to the Government of (330 000 people), Mauritania (609 000 people) and Senegal
(October–December 2019) Senegal and humanitarian partners in order to mitigate the (723 000 people). In Cabo Verde around 10 010 people are
in the Gambia, Mauritania impact of the drought. projected to be in Phase 3.
and Senegal, and nearly • Agricultural production estimates of rainfed crops in Cabo Verde
1.7 million projected and the Gambia are worrying. Maize production in Cabo Verde is
(June–August 2020) – both expected to decrease by 80 percent, while cereal and cash crop Recommended early actions
figures above the long‑term production in the Gambia are expected to diminish by 46 and
average 70 percent, respectively, compared with the five‑year average. The following early actions are recommended for January–March in
• The end of season analysis for grasslands carried out by order to prevent and mitigate the impact of drought on vulnerable
Production levels of vegetation Action Contre la Faim highlights a worrying situation in several pastoralists and agropastoralists during the upcoming 2020 dry
in some areas of Mauritania and cross‑border areas of southwestern Mauritania and northern season, and to boost local food production.
Senegal are among the lowest Senegal. In Mauritania, most of the country, and particularly
recorded in the last 20 years western areas, are experiencing pasture deficits, while eastern Livestock
areas of Assaba and west of Hodh El Gharbi have positive • Ensure close monitoring of livestock markets and promote
outcomes. In Senegal, strong deficits are registered in Louga, commercial destocking of weak animals in drought-affected areas.
Matam, Saint‑Louis, Kaffrine, Kaolak and Diourbel.
10 | Early Warning Early Action reportThe outcome of the • Provide livestock feed and water to safeguard core-breeding stock. Crops
2019 rainy season was • Boost local fodder production along river streams, pastoral • Support off-season home-gardening in communities with
negative in several wells and low-lying areas through the distribution of seeds, access to water, as well as the cultivation of irrigated and flood
countries along the maralfalfa cuttings and equipment. receding crops.
Atlantic coast of West Africa • Rehabilitate pastoral wells by prioritizing solar-energy-based • Strengthen the utilization of groundwater resources and
due to poor and erratic equipment. desalination of water for irrigated crops in Cabo Verde, in synergy
distribution of rainfall, • Support the provision of animal health services, particularly with government efforts, as well as support pastoralists through
particularly in Cabo Verde, vaccination and deworming. access to feed and water.
the Gambia, Mauritania
and Senegal. The pastoral
situation is severe in Current acute food insecurity situation Projected acute food insecurity situation
several areas of Mauritania (October–December 2019) (June–August 2020)
and Senegal, leading to a
CA BO VERDE C A B O VE RD E
high probability of an early Santo Antao Santo Antao
and difficult pastoralist
Santa Luzia Santa Luzia
Sal ALGERIA Sal
A LG E RI A
lean season. Sao Vicente
Sao Nicolau
Sao Vicente
Sao Nicolau
Boa Boa
Vista Vista
Tiris-Zemmour Tiris-Zemmour
Sao Tiago Sao Tiago
Fogo Fogo
Brava Brava
Maio Maio
Dakhlet-Nouadhibou Dakhlet-Nouadhibou
Adrar Adrar
MAURI TA NI A
Inchiri M AURITANIA Inchiri
Tagant
M ALI Tagant
MA L I
Nouakchott Nouakchott
Trarza Trarza
Hodh Ech Chargi Hodh Ech Chargi
Brakna Brakna
Atlantic Assaba
Hodh El Gharbi
At l a n t ic Hodh El Gharbi
Assaba
Ocean Saint-Louis
Gorgol
Ocea n Saint-Louis
Gorgol
Louga Louga
Matam Matam
Dakar Diourbel S ENEGAL Dakar Diourbel SE NE G A L
Thiès Guidimakka Thiès Guidimakka
Fatick Kaffrine Fatick Kaffrine
Tambacounda
Kaolack T HE GAM BIA Kaolack
Tambacounda TH E G A MB I A
Central River Central River
Kolda North Bank Kolda North Bank
Ziguinchor Kédougou Ziguinchor Kédougou
Greater Greater
Banjul Area Banjul Area
Sédhiou Sédhiou
GUINEA GUINEA G UI NE A
Lower River Upper River G UI NE A Lower River Upper River
BISS AU West Coast
B I SSAU West Coast
high risk
0 105 km 0 105 km
CH phase classification
5 - Famine 4 - Emergency 3 - Crisis 2 - Stressed 1 - Minimal Not analysed Inadequate evidence
Source: Cadre Harmonisé, November 2019
January–March 2020 | 11Risk overview • Access issues for humanitarian actors remain critical in Yemen.
At the end of December 2019, a vital grain storage facility in
• Multiple diplomatic efforts have been taking place in Yemen Al Hudaydah was hit by shelling, forcing work to temporarily
since September, however conflict remains intense in several close and severely affecting food aid.
areas of the country. In September, increased fighting was • High levels of acute malnutrition persist throughout the country.
Yemen observed in Al Hudaydah and Hajjah governorates. In Aden, In September, a surveillance system in selected locations
hostilities have subsided, whereas escalated conflict in reported aggregate acute malnutrition in 27 percent of children
Elevated levels of food surrounding Abyan and Shabwah governorates was ongoing. between 6 and 59 months. The highest rate was recorded
insecurity amid talks • According to the last IPC report issued in December 2018, while in Al Hudaydah, with Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM)
between warring parties accounting for humanitarian food assistance levels, 15.9 million at 37 percent and Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) at 15 percent,
people (53 percent of the total population) were facing severe followed by Ibb and Sana’a, which both recorded MAM
food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above). A follow‑up hotspot at 18 percent and SAM at 7 percent.
15.9 million people analysis in June for 29 districts indicated that humanitarian food • Heavy rains between June and October have caused flash
(53 percent of the total assistance is having a positive effect on households’ access to floods in most western areas of Yemen, destroying houses
population) were facing severe food. Despite the improvements, the food security situation is and contaminating water supplies. Heavy rainfall since late
food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 still dire. September is also causing flooding in southern areas of Yemen.
and above) in December 2018 • Eleven million people relying on water supplied by piped • The local currency (Yemen rial) remains substantially weaker
networks and 4 million people who depend on water trucked in than pre-crisis levels and has continued its depreciatory
Aggregate acute malnutrition by private companies have had to drastically reduce their daily trajectory since April. The national average unofficial exchange
was reported in 27 percent water consumption since fuel prices soared in September. In rate was more than 600 YER/USD in September, a three percent
of children between three major cities, Al Mahwit, Ibb and Dhamar, which are home increase from 586 YER/USD in August.
6 and 59 months to around 400 000 people, central water systems were shut down • The presence of plant pests has affected the agriculture sector
completely. Lack of water puts households at increasing risk and the country’s capacity to control outbreaks is limited.
of diseases such as cholera. Fuel shortages have also affected Outbreaks of fall armyworm were reported on 2019 maize
humanitarian operations in Sana’a and other areas in northern crops, and good rains in August 2019 have incited breeding of
and central Yemen. desert locusts.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
12 | Early Warning Early Action reportMultiple diplomatic efforts Potential impact Crops
have been taking place in • Provide key inputs to the most food-insecure farmers by March,
Yemen since September, • Severe food insecurity is likely to persist in 2020. Should peace including crop and vegetable seeds and agricultural tools to
however conflict is intense process efforts bring about a substantial lowering of the allow timely planting in April.
in several areas of the intensity of the conflict, this could provide some respite. That • Provide solar water pumps to vulnerable farmers to overcome
country and severe food said, the process could be protracted, given the divide among the high cost and scarcity of fuel.
insecurity is likely to warring parties.
persist into 2020. • The main cropping season in most cereal producing areas is Livestock
between April and November. Cereal production in the Tihama • Distribute animal feed and mineral supplements to vulnerable
region (the Red Sea coastal plain) has a summer season starting livestock raisers, especially in conflict-affected areas.
in May and ending in August, a main planting season starting in
late August, and a harvest in November/December. Total cereal
production in 2019 is forecast at 12 percent below the previous Acute food insecurity situation
year’s harvest and more than 30 percent below the five-year (July–September 2019)
average, due to conflict and outbreak of plant diseases. The
impact on food security might however be limited, as Yemen SAU D I ARABIA O MAN
imports the majority of its food requirements.
Sa’ada
Hadramout
Al-Jawf
Hajjah Al-Maharah
Recommended early actions Amran
Amanat Al Asimah Marib
Al Mahweet Sana’a
Shabwah
The combined effect of conflict, macroeconomic crisis, Raymah
Dhamar
Al-Bayda
A ra b ia n Sea
Al Hudaydah
climate‑related shocks and crop pests may lead to a further increase Ibb
Abyan
Re d Sea
of acute malnutrition across the country. Early action is needed to Taiz
Lahaj Soqotra
Gulf of Aden
support preparations for the next cereal planting season starting 0 100 km
in April, as well as to allow the immediate fulfilment of basic needs Aden Al-Dhale'e
among the most vulnerable households.
IPC phase classification
Cash 5 - Famine Not analysed At least 25% of households meet
25–50% of caloric needs from
• Implement cash-based programmes, including unconditional 4 - Emergency Inadequate evidence
humanitarian food assistance
cash and cash+, targeting the most vulnerable households in 3 - Crisis Urban settlement
high risk
At least 25% of households meet
areas of acute food insecurity (IPC Phases 4 and 5). 2 - Stressed
over 50% of caloric needs from
1 - Minimal humanitarian food assistance
Source: IPC, July 2019
January–March 2020 | 13Risk overview • In the northeastern states, nearly 2 million people are displaced
by the conflict. At the same time, late season floods have
• After two years of gradually decreasing numbers of people affected severely affected more than 200 000 people across these
by food insecurity in Nigeria, the latest Cadre Harmonisé analysis states, particularly in IDP camps, affecting over 4 000 people
(November 2019) indicates that figures are now going up again. and destroying shelters, fields and livestock, particularly in
Nigeria This new worrying trend requires urgent action and its underlying Adamawa and Borno.
factors need to be monitored closely in the coming months. At • Despite a generally positive agropastoral situation at national
High levels of insecurity in national level, 4.3 million people are currently facing severe food level, the situation needs to be monitored closely due to
the North-East, increasing insecurity (October–December 2019), of whom 2.9 million are several hotspots. At national level agricultural production
conflict in the North-West located in northeastern states. This includes people in IDP camps. is forecast above the five-year average for several crops.
and localized floods affect • The main factors for this upward change are the high levels Pasture development is either average or above-average at
agriculture and food of conflict in northeastern states and the strong persistence national level.
security of insecurity in northwestern states, notably Kaduna, Katsina,
Sokoto and Zamfara, which have led to new displacements
and had a localized impact on agropastoral activities in 2019. Potential impact
More than 6 million people The situation was compounded by late season floods in some
projected to be severely food northwestern and northeastern states. • In January–March, people in insecure areas and those affected
insecure (June–August 2020) • In northwestern states, armed group activities and the recurrent by floods will be in need of food assistance and livelihood
farmer-herder conflict has increased in 2019 and spiralled into support, particularly those residing in displacement camps and
2 million internally different types of violence such as banditry, cattle rustling, with host communities. Cadre Harmonisé projections indicate
displaced people in the kidnapping, sexual violence and looting. In November 2019, that 6.1 million people will be severely food insecure during
North‑East and over a recent report of International Organization for Migration on the lean season (June–August 2020), of whom 3.8 million in
300 000 in North‑West/ internal displacement in eight states affected by communal northeastern states. This includes people in IDP camps.
North‑Central parts of violence and farmer-herder conflict (Benue, Kaduna, Kano, • Insecurity levels are likely to remain high particularly in the
the country Katsina, Nasarawa, Plateau, Sokoto and Zamfara) indicates that North-East with a potential increase due to the mobility of
around 540 000 people are displaced by the persistent violence. armed groups with receding waters in northeastern states,
At the same time, nearly 60 000 people took refuge across the as well as persistent violence in northwestern states.
border into the Maradi region of the Niger.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
14 | Early Warning Early Action reportCurrent acute food insecurity situation
After two years of gradual • As the dry season approaches, failure to provide timely feed and
(October–December 2019)
improvement, increased fodder support for nomadic pastoralist communities may lead
levels of insecurity in to wasting and deterioration of food security, since livestock TH E NIGER
Lake Chad
northeast and northwest represents the only livelihood option for more than 85 percent Sokoto
CH A D
states of Nigeria are driving of the communities. Katsina
Jigawa
Yobe
Borno
food insecurity figures Kebbi Zamfara Kano
upward and impacting BENIN Kaduna Bauchi Gombe
agropastoral activities. Recommended early actions Kwara
Niger
Adamawa
This new worrying trend Abuja
Plateau
requires urgent action and In January–March, the following early actions are recommended:
Nassarawa
Oyo Taraba
Ekiti Federal Capital Territory
its underlying factors need Osun Kogi
Benue
Ogun Ondo
CA MEROON
to be monitored closely in Crops
Enugu
Lagos Edo
Ebonyi
Anambra
the coming months. • Support home-based livelihood activities among the most Gulf of Gui nea Delta Imo Abia
Cross
river
Bayelsa Rivers
vulnerable households (micro-/backyard gardening and cash+).
Akawa 0 100 km
Ibom
• Provide women with vegetable seed kits to improve household
nutrition by diversifying their diets and sources of income. Projected acute food insecurity situation
• Support women through off-season crop processing. (June–August 2020)
TH E NIGER
Livestock Lake Chad
CH A D
• Provide emergency feed support to vulnerable, displaced Sokoto
Katsina
Borno
pastoralists and agropastoralists to safeguard their Kebbi Zamfara Kano
Jigawa
Yobe
core‑breeding animals.
• Carry out livestock restocking (mainly goats and poultry) BENIN
Niger
Kaduna Bauchi Gombe
benefiting women and youth with limited access to land along
Adamawa
Kwara
Plateau
with the disbursement of cash-based transfers.
Abuja
Nassarawa
• Establish water points in nomadic IDP settlements
Oyo Taraba
Ekiti Federal Capital Territory
Osun Kogi
Benue
to complement other initiatives aimed at mitigating Ogun
Lagos
Ondo
Edo
Enugu CA MEROON
protection risks.
Ebonyi
Anambra
Gulf of Gui nea Cross
Delta Imo Abia river
Bayelsa Rivers Akawa 0 100 km
Cash
Ibom
• Provide conditional cash transfers to returnees and IDPs,
high risk
CH phase classification
particularly women and children.
5 - Famine 3 - Crisis 1 - Minimal Inadequate evidence
4 - Emergency 2 - Stressed Not analysed
Source: Cadre Harmonisé, November 2019
January–March 2020 | 15You can also read
