Daily corona update: Trump's easter wishes are likely (too) optimistic - e-Markets

30 March 2020

        Daily corona update:
       Trump’s easter wishes
      are likely (too) optimistic
Andreas Steno Larsen | Morten Lund

US cases are still doubling every 3-4 days, which is why a re-opening of the
economy already by Easter looks a tad optimistic, even though Trump strongly
advocates for it. Europe seems to be ahead of US on that curve.
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Trump continues to advocate for a reopening of the US economy by Easter (social distancing warning has
been prolonged until late April) and accuses the «lame-stream media» of exaggerating the Corona crisis. We
still find such an Easter outlook too optimistic, even though Trumps hopes have been a part of fueling equity
markets recently. The best thing that could happen to markets and the economy, is if some sort of credible
rule-based exit plan was announced both in US and Europe. At least some politicians have started talking
about when, how and if the economies can reopen, even though it is not just around the corner. UKs top
advisor currently projects a curfew lasting until the end of June for example.

One probably can't "turn the economy back on" until there is i) enough protective gear for health workers,
as well as enough of resources such as respirators, ii) masks for healthy/asymptomatic people to be able
to safely go out in public and/or iii) gazillions of disinfectant. It doesn't matter if you want to turn on the
economy before then - you will fail. The US is probably not quite there yet, at least if you listen to Governor
Cuomo from New York. Remember that governors will decide when to reopen, not Donald Trump.

US cases are still doubling every 3-4 days, even though we will likely soon get a de-acceleration of cases,
simply just due to logistical reasons (not tests enough). With a 30% daily growth the US will hit 1 mio cases
already in the first half of April based on this model from Friday. The growth rate has already slowed a tad
over the weekend.

e-markets.nordea.com/article/56634/daily-corona-update-trumps-easter-wishes-are-
likely-too-optimistic

Chart 1: US cases to hit 1 mio in the first half of April unless the curve fades

Daily US growth rates of new cases are now running sub 20%, which are the lowest numbers since early
March. Italian growth rates are also slowly but surely edging towards 0%. The Italian virus spread is past its
peak in momentum terms and other European countries will follow over the coming 7-10 days. That is good
news.

e-markets.nordea.com/article/56634/daily-corona-update-trumps-easter-wishes-are-likely-too-optimistic

Chart 2: Italian growth rates in cases are closing in on 0%, while US case growth rates are
still high

This also provides a glimse of hope for Spain, as growth rates in daily cases have also started to wane across
Spain. The fatality data is though still sad reading and Spain is on a worse trajectory than Italy. So is Belgium
and the Netherlands.

e-markets.nordea.com/article/56634/daily-corona-update-trumps-easter-wishes-are-likely-too-optimistic

Chart 3: Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands on a worse trajectory than Italy

In Scandinavia, Denmark is still the country with most fatal outcomes per 1 million citizens, while Norways
test-strategy (Norway has tested more than South Korea) seems to have been enough to dampen the curve
already. It is still hard to tell the dierence between Denmark and Sweden on fatality data, even though the
two countries have taken very dierent approaches to the Corona virus. Swedish case data started to show
some signs of acceleration late last week and into the weekend, which was not the case in the same way in
Danish data.

e-markets.nordea.com/article/56634/daily-corona-update-trumps-easter-wishes-are-likely-too-optimistic

Chart 4: Hard to tell the dierence between Denmark and Sweden on fatality data

It is still too early to tell whether the fatality curves in e.g. Sweden and Denmark will wane (much) faster than
for example the Italian one. There are already signs that the curves in Scandinavia will be more benign, but
it is still a little too early to tell. So far there are no capacity issues in the Scandinavian health system, which
bodes well ahead of the coming week or two.

e-markets.nordea.com/article/56634/daily-corona-update-trumps-easter-wishes-are-likely-too-optimistic

Chart 5: Sweden almost on same path as Italy, but the trend has thankfully started to wane

Here is the total overview of corona cases. The amount of critical cases in Spain have now surpassed the
amount of cases in Italy, while e.g. Denmarks 113 critical cases are only accounting for roughly 10% of the
total capacity of ICUs in Denmark.

e-markets.nordea.com/article/56634/daily-corona-update-trumps-easter-wishes-are-likely-too-optimistic

Table 1: Global overview of Corona cases

Andreas Steno Larsen               Morten Lund
Global FX/FI Strategist            US, UK & EM analyst
andreas.steno.larsen@nordea.com    morten.lund@nordea.com
+45 55 46 72 29                    004555474438

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