CURRENCY OUTLOOK MARCH 2017 - moving money for better
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
MARKET CURRENCY
INSIGHT OUTLOOK
INTO MARCH 2017
GLOBAL
CURRENCIES USD UNITED STATES
CAD CANADA
GBP UNITED KINGDOM
EUR EURO ZONE
CHF SWITZERLAND
AUD AUSTRALIA
JPY JAPAN
CNY CHINA
NZD NEW ZEALAND
SGD SINGAPORE
MXN MEXICO
BRL BRAZIL
moving money for betterCURRENCY OUTLOOK
UNITED STATES
JOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA
February review March risk events and key themes
The U.S. dollar found some comfort in February however The dollar’s Q1 fate is seen to be resting on the Fed’s mid-March
meaningful gains continued to elude the currency. The USD has policy decision when the central bank renders both an interest rate
waxed and waned in 2017 as dollar bulls get acquainted with and unveils new forecasts for growth. No rate hike is expected, EUR/USD (12 MTH)
a new administration in Washington that has signaled a lower but a stronger signal of tighter monetary policy on the horizon
tolerance of a strong currency. 1.15
could allow the dollar to test the upper limits of its range. Still, the
Meanwhile, a lack of detail from the Trump administration about speed at which the dollar swings may hinge on what transpires in
its plans to accelerate growth in the world’s biggest economy Washington on the policy and stimulus front. 1.11
over the coming years has also dampened dollar enthusiasm. Dollar poised for upward or downward March?
Still, bouts of dollar weakness have been curtailed by the U.S. 1.07
U.S. inflation (Mar 1), jobs (Mar 10) data critical
economy’s promising start to the year which keeps pressure on
the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Ides of March: Fed decision Mar 15
1.03
U.S. data delight on jobs, inflation and retail spending F M A M J J A S O N D J F
Will the US administration pursue a weaker dollar policy to Source: Reuters, 2017
shrink the trade gap?
Market sees low but rising risk of an imminent U.S. rate hike ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: 0.50-0.75%
Annual GDP: 1.9% (Q4)
MARCH2017 EVENTS Annual Inflation: 1.7% (Dec)
Mar 1 Mar 10 Mar 30 Unemployment: 4.8% (Jan)
Consumer Spending, Nonfarm Payrolls, Q4 GDP Final
Trade Balance: -$44.3b
Inflation Unemployment
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 7 Mar 15
Trade FOMC
Deficit Decision
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSECAD
JOE MANIMBO, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – NORTH AMERICA
February review
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
CANADA
The loonie pared a year-to-date gain against the U.S. dollar as
market focus shifted increasingly towards the outlook for global
March risk events and key themes
The loonie has held firm in recent months, a gain that hasn’t
gone unnoticed at the Bank of Canada which considers its rise
monetary policy. Few major currencies can compete against the a risk to the economy’s export-led recovery. Canada’s currency USD/CAD (12 MTH)
U.S. dollar when the topic turns to interest rates. That’s because is poised to receive an early month cue when the BOC issues a
the Fed has raised rates twice since late 2015 and plans more policy decision on March 1. 1.40
increases in the year ahead. Canada, meanwhile, is not expected Central bankers are not expected to alter their record low rate
to follow in America’s higher rate footsteps for a while yet, of 0.50 percent over the foreseeable future, a steady outlook 1.35
particularly after Canadian consumer spending unexpectedly that leaves the loonie vulnerable as the debate intensifies for
shifted into reverse in December. the Fed to raise rates to put a lid on rising inflation expectations. 1.30
Oil steadied around $50, underpinning commodity currencies The answers to the following questions should be of critical
Trudeau-Trump White House summit suggested ‘tweaks’ importance to the loonie’s coming prospects:
1.25
to trade deals Will the Bank of Canada let the doves or hawks loose? F M A M J J A S O N D J F
USDCAD started 2017 above 1.34 Is Canada’s hiring spree sustainable? Source: Reuters, 2017
How long will oil keep above $50?
ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: 0.50%
Annual GDP: 3.5% (Q3)
MARCH2017 EVENTS Annual Inflation: 1.5% (Dec)
Mar 1 Mar 10 Unemployment: 6.8% (Jan)
Bank of Canada Employment
Trade Balance: +C$0.92b
Decision
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 7
Mar 2 Trade Mar 24
Q4 GDP Balance Inflation
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSEGBP CURRENCY OUTLOOK
UNITED KINGDOM
JOHN MARLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA
February review
GBPUSD traded sideways through February as the Brexit bill sailed
smoothly through Parliament on its way to the House of Lords,
March risk events and key themes
We have PMIs within the first few days, most likely followed
by a triggering of Article 50. We see only a small kneejerk
where it also passed on to committee stage at the end of the lower for GBP on this event. The Fed will meet on the 15th GBP/USD (12 MTH)
month. Economic data was reasonable although house prices, a of the month, with MPC the next day. If the Fed announce a
bell weather for UK growth, show negative reactions to new tax hike, GBPUSD is likely to test the downside, as MPC keep
1.44
treatment and a possible Brexit effect. GBPEUR rallied into the end rates unchanged. GBPEUR could see an initial rally from either
of the month as strains within Europe, and and an unpredictable higher US rates, or even more favourable polling for Le Pen
1.36
outlook for the French election, weighed on Euro. ahead of the French elections.
1.28
1.20
F M A M J J A S O N D J F
Source: Reuters, 2017
ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: 0.25%
Annual GDP: 1.8%
MARCH2017 EVENTS Annual CPI: 1.8%
Mar 2 Mar 15 Unemployment: 4.8%
UK Manufacturing Federal Reserve meeting on
Trade Balance: £-10.9b
PMI data Interest Rates & Monetary Policy
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 3 Mar 16
UK Services MPC Meeting on Interest Rates
PMI data & Monetary Policy
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSECURRENCY OUTLOOK
EURO ZONE
GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA
February Review March risk events and key themes
The significant upturn of the euro in early 2017 finally expired The degree of concern ahead of the French election will be a
and did not reach February. Europe is back in the spotlight after compass for the euro. Increased odds of a of a Marine Le Pen
new concerns about the health of Greece, and the upcoming victory in May could push the euro south. Inversely, the euro
GBP/EUR (12 MTH)
French election scheduled for spring. could go north if hype around her candidacy weakens. Strong
The 3-month implied volatility on the EUR/USD rate spiked to results for the far-right Dutch party during the parliamentary
election on March 15 could fuel the rise of populist sentiment 1.30
a two-month high as political uncertainties intensified
ahead of the French elections. While Eurozone fundamentals
No deal has been signed between creditors, IMF officials and significantly improved in recent months (strong PMI surveys and 1.23
the Greek government regarding terms of a new €86Bln a spike in headline inflation), tapering debate could resume and
bail-out program boost the euro if the ECB decide to revise its economic forecast
1.16
The euro declined against all of its G10 peers this month, during the March meeting.
except the SEK (as of February 20th) Mario Draghi downplayed an early tapering scenario from the
1.09
ECB ahead of the French and German elections F M A M J J A S O N D J F
No political party wishes to build a coalition with the far-right
Source: Reuters, 2017
candidate Geert Wilders, hence the low risk potential that he
will become the next Dutch PM
The Eurozone PMI survey almost reached a six year high,
ECONOMIC DATA
while headline inflation accelerated in January to its highest
annualized pace since February 2013 at 1.8%. GDP: 1.7%
MARCH2017 EVENTS Inflation: 1.8% (annualized)
Unemployment: 9.6%
Mar 9
Mar 2 - ECB rating decision Mar 24 Trade Balance: €28.1Mds
Flash Inflation rate (Feb) Mar 9-10 Flash PMI survey
- European Council
Policy rates: 0.0%
& Unemployment rate
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 15 Mar 31
Mar 3 Dutch Flash inflation
Retail sales parliamentary election rate (March)
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSECHF CURRENCY OUTLOOK
SWITZERLAND
JOHN MARLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA
Febraury review
We have seen a slow and gradual decline in EURCHF, almost
certainly a result of continuous intervention by SNB to keep the
March risk events and key themes
The SNB meet the same day as the UK’s MPC and the Bank of
Japan, and the day after the FOMC. The prospect of higher rates
CHF from strengthening further. It has even been suggested from the US may give some relief, although it may also trigger GBP/CHF (12 MTH)
that to find the extra liquidity needed they may have been active unwanted EUR weakness that requires more ongoing support in
in the two separate markets, EURUSD and USDCHF, accounting the market. With rates so far into negative territory already, it is 1.43
for the resilience of the EUR that some find hard to explain. hard to imagine the SNB cutting even further.
Overall, data has been as forecast, with another increase in
1.35
reserves manifesting itself due to those Central Bank actions.
1.27
1.19
F M A M J J A S O N D J F
Source: Reuters, 2017
ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: -0.75%
Annual GDP: 1.3%
MARCH2017 EVENTS Annual CPI: 0.3%
Mar 16 Unemployment: 3.3%
- SNB Rates and Monetary Policy
- BoJ Rates and Monetary Policy Trade Balance: 4.7b (CHF)
- MPC Meeting on Interest Rates & Monetary Policy
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 15
Federal Reserve meeting on
Interest Rates & Monetary Policy
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSEAUD
STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
February review
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
AUSTRALIA
The Australian dollar continued higher in February boosted
by a strong improvement in the Australian trade position. The
March risk events and key themes
Looking forward, markets are hoping for a significant
improvement in Australia’s growth position after the September
Australian trade surplus was reported as the highest-ever in quarter saw a shock negative read. AUD/USD (12 MTH)
February at AUD3.5 billion thanks to rising commodity prices. An improvement in trade and business confidence should see
0.79
The AUD climbed to three-month highs versus the USD the Australian economy return to growth.
but was troubled around the 0.77 level, a major trading This month, the focus will be on December quarter GDP, due
zone that has hampered gains for more than a year 0.76
on 1 March. Last quarter saw a 0.5% fall
The AUD saw strong gains versus other major currencies
The performance of commodity markets will be closely
with the Aussie nearing four-year highs versus the euro 0.73
watched. In particular, iron ore has been driven by strong
and three-year highs against the British pound gains in the Chinese market. While physical demand has
The jump in iron ore prices continued in February and these increased, so has speculative activity 0.70
F M A M J J A S O N D J F
gains remain the key driver of the AUD’s strength. Iron ore The new Reserve Bank of Australia governor, Philip Lowe, has
gained 20% in the first two months of the year recently indicated a growing concern about financial stability Source: Reuters, 2017
driven by the strong gains in the housing market. This makes
further rate cuts less likely ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: 1.50%
Annual GDP: 1.80%
MARCH2017 EVENTS Annual CPI: 1.50%
Mar 1 Mar 6 Mar 16 Mar 21 Unemployment: 5.70%
GDP Retail Employment RBA
Trade Balance: 3.5b (AUD)
Sales Minutes
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 7
Mar 2 RBA
Trade Balance Decision
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSEJPY
The Japanese currency continues to be driven by the
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
JAPAN
GUILLAUME DEJEAN, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA
March risk events and key themes
worldwide political environment. The revival of optimism in
What to expect in March 2017?
Unsurprisingly the future of the yen will be linked to the risk-
appetite of global investors in the current political climate. The
the United States, and the relatively upbeat tone of the first USD/JPY story is strongly linked to the activities of the American GBP/JPY (12 MTH)
meeting between the new US Government and Abe, dented government. The EUR/JPY rate looks shaky in the face of the
the yen’s rally against the USD. Nevertheless, the temporary upcoming French election, the official start of ‘Brexit’ and the
desynchronization of political risks between the US and Europe Dutch parliamentary election scheduled for March 15. 164
following the Eurosceptic manifesto of far-right candidate Marine Markets will be waiting for the American tax reform plan in
Le Pen, resulted in a new uptrend of the USD/JPY rate but March. Few details have leaked so far
151
anchored the EUR/JPY rate at a 2017 low.
The Dutch parliamentary election will be of interest to 138
The USD/JPY hit a two-month lows on Feb 07 and tested the investors in the lead up to the French elections
¥111,6 technical support before recovering above ¥114
The BoJ signaled they did not intend to modify the “yield 125
The EUR/JPY returned to its ¥119.5 support level in late F M A M J J A S O N D J F
curve control” policy because of a rise of global interest rates
February on the back of French political concerns Source: Reuters, 2017
ECONOMIC DATA
GDP: 1.0% (annualized)
MARCH2017 EVENTS Inflation: 0.3% (annualized)
Unemployment: 3.1%
Mar 3 Mar 10 Mar 16
Trade Balance: ¥1087Mds
Inflation Q1 Tankan BoJ
rate Survey decision rate Policy rates: -0.1%
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 29
Final Dutch Unemployment rate /
Q4 2016 GDP parliamentary election Retail sales
& Fed rate decision
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSECNY
STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
February review
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
CHINA
The Chinese currency has recently strengthened after falling
at the start of the year to the lowest level versus the US dollar
March risk events and key themes
The FX oversight measures introduced by China have halted the
CNY’s depreciation but the effects might only be temporary. This
since 2008. The CNY’s losses have recently abated as the month, focus will remain on the CNY. Any move from the US Federal
USD/CNY (12 MTH)
Chinese government looks to control the weight of CNY selling. Reserve to indicate it plans to soon raise rates could see the CNY
The Chinese government has stipulated that international banks heavily sold against the US dollar.
balance FX flows and restricted large corporate investments Most activity indexes have improved over the last six months. 6.86
The CNY has seen volumes collapse as the Chinese The Chinese government has boosted growth via new loans.
government attempts to curb speculative activity and There are growing concerns about the growth of leverage 6.72
capital outflows Inflation continues to run hot. The most recent producer
prices reading climbed to the highest level in five years. 6.58
The CNY has also seen gains versus other currencies, with
the largest improvement against the euro and Japanese yen Further gains in inflation could complicate the POBC’s
management of the Chinese economy 6.44
F M A M J J A S O N D J F
The new US administration remains focused on the Chinese
currency with increasing speculation that US Congress might Source: Reuters, 2017
name China as a “currency manipulator” over the course of
the month
ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: 4.35%
Annual GDP: 6.80%
MARCH2017 EVENTS Annual CPI: 2.50%
Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 14 Unemployment: 2.50%
Manufacturing Trade - Retail Sales
Trade Balance: 51.4b (USD)
PMI Balance - Industrial Output
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 9
CPI
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSENZD
STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
February review
The NZDUSD was weaker last month as the Reserve Bank of
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand’s most recent policy statement hit confidence. The
March risk events and key themes
The sharp rise in NZ inflation was the key shift for the NZD over
the last month and sustained gains will have a major effect on
RBNZ kept rates on hold and indicated that while it was more interest rate expectations. NZD/USD (12 MTH)
positive on the inflation outlook it was unlikely to move rates in
The rise in inflation has seen interest rate markets turn. The
the near term. 0.74
bond market now expects a rate hike by November 2018
The RBNZ’s news saw NZD lower versus most currencies
The NZD remains buoyant versus low yielding currencies like 0.71
with the largest losses against the US and Australian dollars
the euro, Japanese yen and Swiss franc. However, any move
The RBNZ upgraded its expectations for the official interest to raise rates by the US Federal Reserve could trigger
0.68
rates with the bank now expecting the next move to be higher. a reversal in this trend
However, the RBNZ said it’s unlikely to move before 2019
Most market analysts expect the NZDUSD to fall over the
0.65
The NZD was also hit by the RBNZ’s warning that the next year. The latest forecast poll from Reuters, published F M A M J J A S O N D J F
local currency was too high and that current levels were on 7 February 2017, found the median 12-month forecast
Source: Reuters, 2017
unsustainable for “moderate” growth for NZDUSD is 0.6900
ECONOMIC DATA
Base Rate: 1.75%
Annual GDP: 3.50%
MARCH2017 EVENTS Annual CPI: 1.30%
Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 22 Unemployment: 5.20%
Terms of Trade Dairy Dairy
Trade Balance: -3.2b (NZD)
Prices Prices
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 5 Mar 15 Mar 24
Building Consents Current Account Trade Balance
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSESGD
STEVEN DOOLEY, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – ASIA PACIFIC
February review
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
SINGAPORE
The Singapore dollar continued to hold steady in February after
losing ground substantially in the later part of 2016.
March risk events and key themes
A pick-up in inflation and growth in Singapore has helped the
island-state’s economy but it remains below capacity. From
An improvement in global economic indicators and an easing in this perspective, April’s meeting of the Monetary Authority of USD/SGD (12 MTH)
the US dollar were the main reasons for the SGD’s support. Singapore will be critical.
1.48
The USD eased as markets worried about the detail of the The recent improvement in commodity prices, especially oil,
US administration’s tax package. This saw the USDSGD fall has helped the Singapore dollar. Commodity prices will be
1.43
to three-month lows during the month closely watched
The ongoing weakness in low-yielding currencies saw both The meeting of the US Federal Reserve, due on 16 March,
1.38
the Japanese yen and euro weaker. The euro fell to six-month will be critical. Any indication of impending rate hike could
lows versus the Singapore dollar see the US dollar stronger and the SGD weaker
1.33
The SGD’s relative strength saw the local currency rise to The Monetary Authority of Singapore is next scheduled to F M A M J J A S O N D J F
all-time highs versus the Malaysian ringgit meet in mid-April. With inflation still below target, there
Source: Reuters, 2017
remains the potential for an SGD devaluation
ECONOMIC DATA
SIBOR: 0.97%
Annual GDP: 2.90%
MARCH2017 EVENTS Annual CPI: 0.20%
Mar 3 Mar 10 Mar 23 Unemployment: 1.80%
Manufacturing Retail Sales CPI
Trade Balance: 1.4b (SGD)
PMI
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 17
Exports
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSEMXN
JOSEPH BRUCKER, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EMERGING MARKETS
Febraury review
The peso bolstered to back below 20 against the mighty
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
MEXICO
greenback for the first time since the U.S. presidential election
March risk events and key themes
The same factors that affected the peso in February will
continue to be in the driver’s seat for March. The U.S. President
this month. This stemmed from three factors. First, Banxico has his State of the Union address, various pieces of economic USD/MXN (12 MTH)
(Mexico’s Central Bank) hiked its keystone rate by 50 basis data will be released, the FX commission’s currency hedging
22.0
points. Secondly, the FX commission proposed a strong program and its efficacy will be colored, and Banxico meets on
currency hedge program valued at $20 billion U.S. dollars. The the 30th. If March is anything like the preceding 3 months, we
20.75
last major factor was a softening tone from the U.S. presidential could see some big swings, particularly against the U.S. dollar.
administration regarding NAFTA negotiations. The latter is in U.S. – Mexico relations in focus 19.5
stark contrast to early concerns, which allowed for the dramatic
shift of nearly 5% to date against the U.S. dollar. Currency Hedging program in action 18.25
Banxico pumps up rates by half a percent Banxico meets at the end of the month
17.0
FX commission announces major currency hedging program F M A M J J A S O N D J F
U.S. softens anti-NAFTA rhetoric Source: Reuters, 2017
ECONOMIC DATA
Annual GDP: 2.38%
Inflation: 4.20%
MARCH2017 EVENTS Unemployment: 3.4%
Mar 1 Mar 6 Mar 30 Trade Balance: $28MM
- Remittances Consumer Banxico
Policy Rates: 6.25%
- Quarterly Inflation Confidence Meeting
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 3
Gross Fixed Mar 9
Investment Inflation
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSEBRL
JOSEPH BRUCKER, CURRENCY STRATEGIST – EMERGING MARKETS
February review
CURRENCY OUTLOOK
BRAZIL
The real gained over 3% against the dollar, reaching its lowest
rate in nearly 2 years this month. This was fueled by two major
March risk events and key themes
The next expected rate cut is in April by 75 basis points,
and any big news in March could corroborate or derail those
factors: COPOM (Brazilian Central Bank) dovishness, and expectations. The COPOM has stated that inflation and supply USD/BRL (12 MTH)
a potentially friendlier U.S. presidential administration than shocks, particularly in consumer goods such as food, color the
anticipated. The COPOM cut the primary SELIC rate by 75 basis 4.00
aggressiveness of the rate cut depth and pace of 2017. Banks
points to 12.25%, with increasing room for more dovishness. seem to have a consensus that inflation will converge with its
3.75
In the accompanying thoughts and justification, COPOM cited target, and the risk of food supply shocks are minimal. As such,
favorable inflation figures and potentially slower economic the widespread consensus is that Brazil will see increasingly 3.50
activity. They also left the door open to more rate cuts this year, aggressive rate cuts throughout 2017.
3.25
and more often. The U.S. executive branch also bolstered the The market is expecting a 75-basis point cut in April
real, as speculation over weak-dollar policies and a potential
Inflation reports will be flashpoints 3.00
more importer-friendly approach was substantiated by various F M A M J J A S O N D J F
statements and leaks throughout the month. Elucidated trade policy could steer further USDBRL price shifts
Source: Reuters, 2016
The Brazilian real appreciated to 20-month lows against
the greenback ECONOMIC DATA
The main rate was cut by 75 basis points
Trade partner political uncertainty slightly softened fears Annual GDP: 1.82%
Inflation: 5.35% (annualized)
MARCH2017 EVENTS Unemployment: 12.4%
Mar 3 Mar 10 Mar 23 Trade Balance: 2.7b (USD)
Manufacturing Retail Sales CPI
Policy Rates: 12.25%
PMI
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
Mar 17
Exports
JUMP TO... USD CAD GBP EUR CHF AUD JPY CNY NZD SGD MXN BRL NEXT CLOSEDISCLAIMERS
Western Union Business Solutions has based the opinions expressed in this ASIA PACIFIC
communication on information generally available to the public. Western Union Australia New Zealand
Business Solutions makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and
specifically disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from trading decisions In Australia, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. In
based on the opinions expressed and information contained in this communication. Company. In Australia, Custom House Currency Exchange (Australia) Pty Limited New Zealand, Western Union Business Solutions (Australia) Pty Ltd, NZ branch
Such information and opinions are for general information purposes only and are not ABN 95 086 278 659 and AFSL 238290 and/or Western Union Business Solutions (company number 3527631 and FSP 168204) (“WUBS”) is the issuer of the financial
intended to present advice with respect to matters reviewed and commented upon. (Australia) Pty Limited ABN 24 150 129 749 and AFSL 404092 (collectively referred to products (if any) referred to in this communication. A Product Disclosure Statement is
as “WUBS”) is the issuer of the financial products (if any) referred to in available for each of the financial products that WUBS issues and can be obtained by
This communication is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any this communication. visiting http://business.westernunion.co.nz/about/compliance/.
person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use A Product Disclosure Statement is available for each of the financial products that Any advice provide in this communication is class (general) advice only and does not
would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject WUBS or its affiliates WUBS issues (if any) and can be obtained by visiting our compliance and legal web take account of your financial situation, objectives and/or needs. Because of this,
to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. page. Any advice provided in this communication is general and does not take before you act on it (including making any decisions and/or trading) you should
account of your financial situation, objectives or needs. Because of this, before you consider its appropriateness having regard to your own objectives, financial situation
This communication has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does act on it (including making any decision and/or trading) you should consider its and/or needs. WUBS recommends that you seek personalised (personal) financial
not in any way create any binding obligations on either party. Relations between you appropriateness having regard to your own objectives, financial situations advice from an authorised financial adviser.
and WUBS shall be governed by the applicable terms and conditions provided to you and/or needs.
before you undertake any transaction with WUBS. No representations, warranties or Singapore
conditions of any kind, express or implied, are made in this communication. Before you decide to acquire a financial product from WUBS you should read and
consider the relevant product disclosure statement. In Singapore, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
© 2017 Western Union Holdings Inc. All rights reserved. Company. Depending on the nature and scope of the services, services in Singapore
Hong Kong
are provided by Western Union Business Solutions (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS
In Hong Kong, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Singapore”) and/or WUBS Financial Services (Singapore) Pte Ltd (“WUBS FS
Company. Services in Hong Kong are provided by Western Union Business Solutions Singapore”) (collectively referred to as “WUBS”).
(Hong Kong) Limited (company number 1474270 and CE number BGY438) (“WUBS”).
WUBS FS Singapore is a capital markets services licence holder for leveraged foreign
WUBS is a licensed money service operator under the Anti-Money Laundering and exchange trading, and an exempt financial adviser for advising others, either directly
Counter-Terrorist Financing (Financial Institutions) Ordinance (Chapter 615, the Laws or indirectly through publications or writings, and whether in electronic, print or other
of Hong Kong). WUBS is also licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission in form, concerning contracts or arrangements for the purposes of foreign exchange
Hong Kong to conduct Type 3 (leveraged foreign exchange trading) regulated activity. trading and leveraged foreign exchange trading (other than advising others by issuing
Risk Disclosure Statements or promulgating research analyses or research reports, whether in electronic, print or
1. The risk of loss in leveraged foreign exchange trading can be substantial. You may other form, concerning any investment product and advising on corporate finance
sustain losses in excess of your initial margin funds. Placing contingent orders, such within the meaning of the Securities and Futures Act, Cap 289 (“SFA”).
as “stop loss” or “stop limit” orders will not necessarily limit losses to the intended WUBS Singapore is a remittances licence holder. All payment and remittance
amounts. Market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. You may services referred to in this communication are offered under WUBS Singapore’s
be called upon at short notice to deposit additional margin funds. If the required Remittance Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). WUBS
funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated. Singapore’s service does not include any service under the Payment Systems
You will remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account. You should therefore (Oversight) Act 2006.
carefully consider whether such trading is suitable in light of your own financial WUBS is not licensed, registered or authorised, or hold themselves out to be
position and investment objectives. licensed, registered or authorised to conduct any regulated activities under the SFA,
2. Client assets received or held by WUBS or a WUBS group company outside financial advisory services under the Financial Advisers Act, Cap 110, money
Hong Kong are subject to the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant changing business and remittance business under the Money-Changing and
overseas jurisdiction which may be different from the Securities and Futures Remittance Business Act, Cap 187, and any other financial services or activities
Ordinance (Cap. 571) and the rules made thereunder. Consequently, such client assets subject to regulatory supervisions by the MAS or any other authority in Singapore,
may not enjoy the same protection as that conferred on client assets received or held save in respect of the specific activities described above for which each entity holds
in Hong Kong. a licence or an exemption to conduct such specific activities.DISCLAIMERS
NORTH AMERICA France Malta
Canada In France, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union In Malta, Western Union Business Solutions is an operating division of The Western
In Canada, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company and provides services in France through its wholly-owned subsidiary Union Company. Services in Malta are provided by Western Union Business Solutions
Company. Services in Canada are provided by Custom House ULC, a company within Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch, (referred to as “WUBS” or (Malta) Limited, a limited company registered in Malta (Company Number C22339) with
the Western Union Business Solutions division. “Western Union Business Solutions”). its registered office at Il-Piazzetta, Tower Road, Sliema, SLM 1605, Malta and which is
Western Union International Bank GmbH, French branch (RCS Nanterre 750 938 094) licensed and regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority to undertake the
USA business of financial services in terms of the Financial Institutions Act) (“WUBS”).
has a registered place of business at Tour Manhattan, 5-6 place de l’Iris, 92095 Paris
In USA, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union Company. La Défense Cedex, France and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH Poland
Services in the US are provided by Custom House USA, LLC (NMLS ID: 906985) and (Registration Number 256184t), an Austrian company whose regsistered office is at
Western Union Business Solutions (USA), LLC (NMLS ID: 907333) (collectively referred In Poland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria. Company and provides services in Poland through Western Union International Bank
to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”). For a complete listing of US
state licensing, visit http://business.westernunion.com/about/notices/. For additional Germany GmbH, Polish Branch (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
information about Custom House USA, LLC and Western Union Business Solutions In Germany, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union Western Union International Bank GmbH, Polish Branch (KRS No: 0000458059, NIP
(USA), LLC, visit http://business.westernunion.com/about/compliance/. Company and provides services in Germany through Western Union’s wholly-owned No: 1080015316), has a registered place of business at Al. Jana Pawla II 29, 00-867
subsidiary Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch (referred to as Warsaw, Poland, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH
“WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”). (registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria.
Western Union International Bank GmbH, Germany branch, has a registered place of Switzerland
EUROPE business at Solmsstrasse 18, 60486 Frankfurt am Main, Germany and is a branch of In Switzerland, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Austria Western Union International Bank GmbH (registered in Austria, Registration Number Company. Services in Switzerland are provided by Rüesch International, LLC (Swiss
In Austria, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union 256184t, Regsistered Office address: Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria). branch), with a registered place of business at Werdstrasse 2, P.O. Box 2063, 8021
Company and provides services in Austria through Western Union’s wholly-owned Italy Zurich, Switzerland (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
subsidiary, Western Union International Bank GmbH (referred to as “WUBS” or In Italy, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of the Western Union Company Western Union Business Solutions has based the opinions expressed herein on
“Western Union Business Solutions”). and provides services in Italy through its wholly owned subsidiaries, Western Union information generally available to the public. Western Union Business Solutions
Western Union International Bank GmbH is registered in Austria (company number International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch and Custom House Financial (UK) Limited makes no warranty concerning the accuracy of this information and specifically
FN256184t), Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria. (which does business under the trade name of Western Union Business Solutions). disclaims any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from trading decisions based on
Czech Republic Custom House Financial (UK) Limited offers the Online Foreign Exchange service the opinions expressed and information contained herein. Such information and
(online FX); all other services are offered by Western Union International Bank GmbH, opinions are for general information only and are not intended to present advice with
In the Czech Republic, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western
Italy branch. respect to matters reviewed and commented upon.
Union Company and provides services in the Czech Republic through Western Union
International Bank GmbH, organizační složka (referred to as “WUBS” or “Western Western Union International Bank GmbH, Italy Branch (Registered Office in Rome: via United Kingdom
Union Business Solutions”). Virigilio Maroso 50, 00142 Italy; Fiscal Code and Companies House Registration In the UK, Western Union Business Solutions is a division of The Western Union
Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered in the number: 13068651002; Enrolled in the Bank Register held by Bank of Italy (no. 3446)), is Company. Services in the UK are provided by Custom House Financial (UK) Limited
Czech Commercial Register held by the Municipal Court in Prague, identification a branch of Western Union International Bank GmbH, a company organised under (which does business under the trade name of Western Union Business Solutions) or
number 015 55 332, has a registered place of business at Václavské náměstí 62, 110 Austrian Law (Companies House Registration number 256184t; Registered Office: Western Union Business Solutions (UK) Limited (collectively referred to as “WUBS”
00 Prague 1, Czech Republic, and is a branch of Western Union International Bank Schubertring 11, A-1010 Vienna, Austria; Corporate Capital: €12.000.000; Sole or “Western Union Business Solutions”).
GmbH (registration number 256184t) Schubertring 11, 1010 Vienna, Austria. Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and coordination activity of): Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (registered in England, Company Number
Western Union Overseas Limited) and which is a bank registered on a list of banks 04380026, Registered Office Address: 12 Appold Street, London EC2A 2AW) is
Western Union International Bank GmbH is a bank registered on a list of banks
maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Österreichische authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services
maintained by the Austrian Financial Market Authority (Finanzmarktaufsicht).
Finanzmarktaufsicht). Regulations 2009 (Register Reference: 517165) for the provision of payment services
Western Union International Bank GmbH, organizační složka is registered on a list of
banks and branches of foreign banks maintained by the Czech National Bank. Custom House Financial (UK) Limited (Incorporated in England; Company Number: and is registered as an MSB with HM Revenue & Customs (Registered No: 12140130).
04380026; Registered Office: 12 Appold Street, London EC2A 2AW; Corporate Western Union Business Solutions (UK) Limited (registered in England, Company
Capital £800,001.00; Sole Shareholder (and therefore subject to the direction and Number 02854737, Registered Office Address: 12 Appold Street, London, EC2A 2AW)
coordination activity of): Western Union Processing Limited), is authorised by the UK is authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services
Financial Conduct Authority under the payment services regulations 2009 (register Regulations 2009 (Register Reference: 536611) for the provision of payment services
reference: 517165) for the provision of payment services and is registered as an MSB with HM Revenue & Customs (Registered No: 12122416).Don’t let the currency market detract from your bottom line. Contact Western Union Business Solutions www.business.westernunion.com United States Canada United Kingdom Australia Tel: 1 866 953 6491 Tel: 1 888 987 7612 Toll Free: 0800 096 1229 Tel: +612 8001 2100 business.westernunion.com business.westernunion.ca business.westernunion.co.uk business.westernunion.com.au GLOBALOFFICES
You can also read
