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CRISIS RESPONSE
VOL: 15 | ISSUE : 1 | MARCH 2020 WWW.CRISIS-RESPONSE.COM JOURNAL
Protection Prevention Preparedness Response Resilience Recove r y
FRACTURES Societal | Grey Rhinos | Covid-19 | Brexit |
Earthquakes | Conflict & Peacebuilding |
Cyber Threats | DRIVER+ Final Results | Bushfires
CRISIS RESPONSE JOURNAL
P ROTE C T I O N | P RE VE NT I O N | P RE PA RE D N E S S | RE S P O N S E | RE S I L I E N C E | RE COVE RY
CRISIS RESPONSE
CRISIS RESPONSE
VOL : 14 | ISSUE : 3 | JUNE 2019 WWW.CRISIS-RESPONSE.COM JOURNAL
P ROTE C T I O N | P RE VE NT I O N | P RE PA RE D N E S S | RE S P O N S E | RE S I L I E N C E | RE COVE RY
K&R | INTERVIEWS | VOLCANIC EXERCISE IN ICELAND | ATTACKS ON RELIGIOUS SITES | HUMAN FACTORS & LEADERSHIP | SUPPLY CHAINS | CRITICAL INCIDENT STRESS MANAGEMENT
KIDNAP AND RANSOM
THE MANY TENTACLES OF EXTORTION & CRIME
VOL:14
| ISSUE:3 | JUNE Interviews | Volcanic exercise in Iceland | Attacks on places of worship |
Deradicalisation | Biases in security | Planning for major events | Leadership & Human
factors | Stratcom and security | Psycholinguistic profiling | Supply chains | Climate
2019
CRJ_14.3.indb 2 14/06/2019 09:39:17
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March 2020 | vol:15 | issue:1
contents
Editor in Chief News ...................................................4 Insarag anniversary .............................. 40
Emily Hough Lucien Jaggi describes the 30-year achievements of
emily@crisis-response.com Comment the International Search and Rescue Advisory Group
The ‘wrong people’ around the table ..........8
Editorial Assistant
Rob McAlister says the more cognitive diverse a Business continuity
Claire Sanders
team’s composition, the better it can provide solutions Much more than cyber .......................... 42
claire@crisis-response.com Concentrating solely on cyber threats at the
Projects Development Manager A metaphor for our times ...................... 12 expense of more traditional problems is not a
Derya Kemmis Emily Hough speaks to Michele Wucker, who good way forward, contends Lyndon Bird
introduced the Grey Rhino concept to the world
derya@crisis-response.com
The role of ERM ................................... 46
Design & Production Mitigating disasters in a fractured world .. 16 Hans Læssøe debates the approach to – and
Chris Pettican Today’s threat landscape is increasingly cross- value of – enterprise risk management in today’s
chris@crisis-response.com border, undeterred by traditional lines of sovereignty. ambiguous, volatile and complex world
It is also largely asymmetric, says Amy Pope
News and Blog research Creating resilience from turmoil ............. 48
Lina Kolesnikova Australian bushfires Brexit highlights several factors that we can learn
lina@crisis-response.com Fire Service response ........................... 20 from and make the necessary changes to take society
Fire Chief Mark Jones describes the challenges to the next level, according to Adrian Clements
Web Support that the bushfires presented in South Australia
Neil Moultrie Preparing a frontline service for Brexit .... 50
Operation Bushfire Assist ...................... 24 Alex Darling describes how a UK ambulance
Senator the Hon Linda Reynolds, Minister for service has prepared to mitigate the
Defence, tells Emily Hough how Australia’s armed potentially adverse effects of Brexit
Subscriptions
forces are helping with response and recovery
Crisis Response Journal is published quarterly; it is
Leadership and Covid-19 ...................... 52
available by subscription in hard copy, digital and online When can we talk frankly? ..................... 26 The actions of leaders can make the difference
subs@crisis-response.com Christine Jessup contends that we all need to play our between panic and calm concern, says Eric McNulty
part in adapting to climate change for our survival
Published by Crisis Management Limited, Sondes Performing under pressure .................... 54
Place Farm, Westcott Road, Dorking RH4 3EB, UK A total rethink: Our moral responsibility ... 30 Anna-Maria Rochester describes lessons from
COPYRIGHT Crisis Management Limited 2020. Greg Mullins, former Commissioner of Fire and hostage negotiators that apply to anyone who
Articles published may not be reproduced in any Rescue for New South Wales, shares his thoughts has to perform in high stress situations
form without prior written permission. on the recent bushfires with Christine Jessup
Printed in England by The Manson Group, UK
A special focus on DRIVER+ .................. 58
ISSN 1745-8633
Frontline response We present a special feature on the DRIVER+
Albania earthquake .............................. 34 project, which aims to boost crisis management,
John Doone reports on Kosovo’s response when innovation, operational effectiveness and networking.
www.crisis-response.com Albania reached out for help from its neighbours Here, we look at its achievements and legacy
join the CRJ LinkedIn group
follow us on twitter @editorialcrj A peek into the future with the SCDF ....... 36 Communities
Emily Hough learns more about the A centre of hope in Cambodia ................ 66
Singapore Civil Defence Force’s trailblazing Nigel Ellway describes a new victim support
technology from Commissioner Eric Yap partnership being developed in Cambodia
Australia’s bushfires p20 DRIVER+ project p58
Commonwealth of Australia 2020 DRIVER+
2 Resources, links, pictures, videos and much more are available for subscribers in our digital and online editions www.crisis-response.com
CRISIS RESPONSE
Cover story: Fractures – Societal, political, trust, systems & cultures
Cover image: gracie_hb | exoticshirts.co.uk
comment
“
A new peacebuilding model ................... 70 Counterterrorism in cities ..................... 94 Today’s biggest problems
Larissa Sotieva and Juliet Schofield argue for Terrorism is a global, networked and persistent threat, defy simple, short-sighted
a transformative model of peacebuilding so counterterrorism must also be global, networked solutions,” commented
and persistent. Alex Townsend-Drake elaborates Ambassador (Ret) David
Cultural understanding ......................... 74 Carden in the South China
Awareness of other cultures is a vital component Cities & society Post on February 19. Although
in managing crises, explains Matt Minshall The tall buildings challenge ................... 96 Carden was referring to the
It is expected that the one-kilometre-high barrier for global response in the face of Covid-19, his
Citizens: Vital co-actors........................ 78 buildings will be broken soon. This raises the stakes in thoughts on complex adaptive systems are
Governor Gilles Mahieu announces collaborative emergency preparedness, according to Russ Timpson applicable to the whole gamut of crisis risks.
agreements as part of the Belgian Province On p4 of this edition of CRJ, we discuss the
of Walloon Brabant’s efforts to encourage Tall buildings and high reliability ............ 98 Global Risks Report 2020, which forecasts a
citizens associations in crisis preparedness Everyone involved in high-rise buildings year of increased domestic and international
should look to high reliability organisations divisions. It says: “Systems-level thinking
Unprompted acts of kindness ................. 80 for inspiration, says Shane McMahon is required to confront looming geopolitical
When it comes to spontaneous volunteers, Ali Malvern and environmental risks and threats that
says that professionals must shift their mindset Health systems – a critical element ...... 100 may otherwise fall under the radar.” On p12
A look at how the WHO is working with Michele Wucker points to the need for greater
Preparedness for children ..................... 82 the Kyrgyz Government to strengthen systems-level thinking when considering far
Rob Fagan argues the case for instilling first aid emergency preparedness and response reaching global challenges such as climate.
and emergency preparedness in our children Wucker also highlights the benefits
Delivering a different approach ............ 104 in terms of resilience in societies where
Testing in the Caribbean ....................... 84 Ruth Wozencroft explores whether it is necessary people do not just consider themselves as
Alois Hirschmugl, Anna Lena Huhn and Albrecht Beck to redesign or redevelop out-of-date hospitals individuals, but as part of a larger group.
describe an exercise with thousands of participants “Thinking holistically is part of what
Tech for good transformation research is all about. We can’t
How VR enhances humanitarian learning . 86 The global impact of drones ................ 106 all be running around doing our own thing
Atish Gonsalves and Anne Garçon outline Charles Werner lists the numerous ways that drones individually,” notes Professor Wilson of Ohio
exciting developments, especially in terms are being used to save lives and protect communities State’s School of Environmental and Natural
of safeguarding and building empathy Resources, in a call for less focus on individuals
Crisis mapping ................................. 108 and more work to inspire collective action
Security It is important that we understand the relationship in preparedness for climate threats (p4).
The dangers in our digital shadows ......... 88 between the formal humanitarian sector and As Amy Pope says on p16: “No single
Ghonche Alavi offers advice on how digital volunteers, explains Doug Specht government, or even a multilateral
to minimise online threats institution, is equipped to respond to any
Regulars major disaster alone. In a world where
Leaders on the cyber battlefield ............. 90 Events.............................................. 110 major governments are choosing their own
Jeffrey Crump explores practical ways to HNPW review .................................... 112 countries first, we are fighting disasters
conduct cyber crisis management training Indonesia conference ......................... 113 with one arm tied behind our backs.”
Frontline .......................................... 114 Pope continues: “Ultimately, we need
Cyber threats and emergency services..... 92 Preparing and helping children to deal with to rethink the way that societies engage
Beatriz Peon provides several examples major incidents is the foundation of ensuring collectively. In the absence of leadership
of how emergency public services have resilient communities. Claire Sanders speaks to from governments, there is an opportunity for
fallen victim to cyberattacks Heather Beal, President and CEO of Blocks corporations, non-governmental actors and
individuals to influence the debate, push for
reform, build coalitions and fill the gaps...”
SCDF trailblazing p36 Digital volunteers p108 So in this fractured landscape, who is
stepping in to fill the yawning gap in trust and
governance? Interestingly, the 2020 Edelman
Trust Barometer (p6) notes that: “Business
has leapt into the void left by populist and
partisan government.” Other factors in
achieving a holistic, co-operative approach
include cognitive diversity (p8), cultural
understanding (p74), citizens themselves
(p78) and spontaneous volunteers (p80).
Fractures can be healed. Admittedly, this
can be a painful process, but it does appear
that a fundamental change in thinking is now
SCDF HOT | Chris Morgan imperative. We all have a role to play in this.
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Mitigating disasters
in a fractured world
Amy Pope shares lessons from her time on the National Security Council under President
Obama’s administration, combined with her private sector experience of advising
individuals and corporations on mitigating risk and responding to crisis
R
eal life lessons have taught me that no
single government, or even a multilateral
institution, is equipped to respond to any
major disaster alone. In a world where
major governments are choosing their own
countries first, we are fighting disasters with one arm tied
behind our backs. This realisation is underlined by having
served four-and-a-half years on the National Security
Council staff – most recently as President Obama’s
Deputy Homeland Security Advisor, where my
lens was particularly homeland specific. For
example, while the National Security
Council was tasked with responding to the
conflict in Syria, my particular
responsibility was to plan for and
mitigate the impact of the conflict in
the US, in terms of migration,
terrorism, disruption to supply
chains and so on. I learned very
quickly that there are very few
threats that are confined solely
to the US and very few
solutions can be effectively
managed in isolation.
Today’s threat landscape
is increasingly cross-border
in its nature, undeterred
by traditional lines of
sovereignty. It is also largely
asymmetric. Forty years
ago, we may have defined
the most serious threats as
those posed by particular
nation states. Even threats
posed by nations tend to
In a world where major
governments are choosing
their own countries first, we
are fighting disasters with one
arm tied behind our backs
16 Resources, links, pictures, videos and much more are available for subscribers in our digital and online editions www.crisis-response.com
comment
operate outside of traditional channels of aggression, more unlikely. Without steady income, many people
and thus outside of the traditional response playbook. will suffer from food insecurity. Others may resort
Let’s take some examples, starting with migration. to joining the drug trade as the only viable economic
There are probably fewer politically intractable challenges option. And many will head north to the United States.
faced by states than migration. Perversely, today’s The relationship between migration and the
situation appears to have spurred increasing isolationism environment is not new. From the mid-19th century
and nationalism, playing a significant role in the Great Irish Famine to the early 20th century Dust Bowl,
Brexit decision and the election of President Trump, history shows many examples of people choosing – or
not to mention the rise of populism across Europe. being forced – to migrate because of changes in their
Currently, more than 65 million people are displaced physical environments. What is new is that the world is
from their homes, the highest number recorded since the grappling with the devastating impacts of climate change.
Second World War. Some of the push factors that have led Whether it’s Central America or the Lake Chad
to these numbers, both in the US and Europe, include: Basin, which is currently experiencing grave
Confl ict – civil war, religious or political environmental degradation, in a context where
persecution or gang violence; populations face the violence linked to the presence
Competition for resources, such of groups such as Boko Haram – environmental
as water or employment; disasters, spurred by climate change – can quickly lead
Natural hazards, such as drought or hurricanes to further destabilisation and migration pressures.
and the inability of states to manage them; and The reality is that no single government is
Relative stability and wealth in able to manage this problem alone.
(primarily northern) countries. Unless we take up multi-jurisdictional, multi-
Yet, the response to migration can also be deemed sectoral solutions, such as co-ordinating development
a failure. For example, the weakness of countries and economic support in highly vulnerable/
immediately adjacent to those experiencing mass high risk counties that are likely sources of future
emigration – or their systems being overwhelmed migration, or revisiting and enhancing the ability of
by the numbers of people – has led to an inability multilateral institutions to operate before the crisis,
or unwillingness to contain the spill-over. we could be overwhelmed by the consequences.
This has been compounded by a lack of common
response and the inability of existing multilateral Major disruption
institutions to manage the crisis, further complicated by Let’s turn to infectious disease. Over the last two decades,
the injection of politics, making it increasingly difficult we have faced countless threats – from multiple strains of
to formulate an effective and humane response. influenza to the emergence of the Severe Acute Respiratory
If we step back and look at the impact of climate Syndrome (SARS), the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome
change and natural hazards on migration now and (MERS) and, currently, Covid-19. We have faced anthrax
in the future – the picture is even more bleak. attacks, Ebola emerged for the first time in West Africa,
Take this example from Central America; a coffee and is ongoing in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
leaf rust (CLR) outbreak first documented in 2012 Between 1980 and 2013 there were 12,012 recorded
soon became a regional epidemic. In a space of outbreaks of infectious disease, comprising 44 million
three years, ten to 55 per cent of arabica coffee crops individual cases and affecting every country in the world.
were destroyed throughout the region, growing Each month the World Health Organisation ( WHO)
into epidemic proportions thanks to increasingly tracks 7,000 new signals of potential outbreaks. In June
erratic weather, mostly warmer and wetter. 2018 there were – for the first time ever – outbreaks of
Although this was not the first coffee rust outbreak, a six of the eight disease categories in the WHO’s ‘priority
new record was set for spread, impact and duration. As diseases’ list. These are not listed as priority because
much as 70 per cent of Central America’s coffee fields they are the most widespread – they are a priority
were affected, reducing yields significantly and causing because there are no effective countermeasures. If any
massive economic damage, including the loss of 500,000 had spread widely, it would have had the potential to
coffee-related jobs and approximately $1 billion in revenue. kill thousands and create major global disruption.
Smallholders whose livelihoods depend on shade- The 2003 SARS outbreak, which infected about 8,000
grown, organic coffee have yet to recover from people and killed 774, cost the global economy an
the CLR epidemic, which continues to hamper estimated US$50 billion. The 2015 MERS outbreak in
production. A downward trend in coffee prices has South Korea infected only 200 people and killed 38, but
further deepened this social-ecological crisis. led to estimated costs of US$8.5 billion. At the time of
All of this fuels immigration, especially in writing, the consequences of the current outbreak are still
countries like Guatemala and Honduras, where playing out, but there is no question it will affect trade,
the median age is 20 and 21, respectively. travel, commerce and, ultimately, political stability.
In El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala, One estimate of potential pandemics through
coffee is a key source of income, particularly for the 21st century puts the annualised economic costs
poor rural households. When nearly 100,000 coffee at US$60 billion; another estimate puts the cost of
workers are losing jobs in Guatemala, and thousands pandemic influenza alone at US$570 billion per year–
more across the region are losing their crops and the the same order of magnitude as climate change.
livelihoods that once sustained them, local employment More troubling is that our most effective weapon to
options – severely limited to begin with – become even counter many of the most common diseases – antibiotics Anton Deviatnikov | 123rf
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– continue to be misused and overused, seriously organising an internal response that crosses traditional
undermining their efficacy, leading to increased rates lines of bureaucratic responsibility. Without such
of antimicrobial resistance. Furthermore, an erosion mechanisms in place, it is even more difficult to
of vaccine norms is leading to a resurgence of older formulate a response that appears to be objective and
biological threats previously thought to have been not designed to influence the outcome of an election.
defeated. This includes measles, which poses a serious We need to take a page from our response to terrorism,
threat to babies, toddlers and young people. Measles when we recognised that traditional bureaucratic
outbreaks are increasing across many countries; in mechanisms for responding to state actors did not
some cases this is because vaccination coverage rates fit well into our response to non-state, asymmetric
have fallen as a result of unfounded safety concerns. threats. I would also suggest creating taskforces or
Again, the solutions require co-operation and an other entities that have clear leadership, management,
increase in global infection control standards. It needs political support and resources. And this is one area
co-operation both across states and within states, between where an entity such as NATO could develop further
the security and public health sectors. Most importantly the capability to counter the threat on a global level.
it must be recognised that diseases do not respect I’m more pessimistic about our ability to mitigate
borders and microbes will not be detained by a wall. these threats for two reasons that have exacerbated
My third example is one that could take up an entire the challenge since I left government. The first is that
volume of the CRJ in itself – misinformation and digital there has been an increasing breakdown in the ability
security. I certainly cannot give it the treatment it of – and trust in – multilateral institutions to manage
deserves here, but I want to spend a little time as it is the the threats. Secondly, the rise in nationalism has lent
best example of where the political becomes personal. support to a world view in which states intentionally
There are two issues. One is the protection of reject a global or multilateral response. Such a position,
personal information and data; the second is the while perhaps politically appealing, actually weakens
manipulation of that data to influence unsuspecting the ability of leaders to manage the threats effectively.
consumers of information. On both fronts, this To compound this, we are ill prepared for the
threat is growing at a rapid pace, as the desire to impact that issues such as climate change will have
connect people, things, and information digitally has on fuelling and aggravating disasters. And we are
far outpaced protections for security or privacy. completely unprepared to manage the manipulation
The cost of disruption has become relatively of information around disasters, making us
low – an individual, a hacktivist, a terrorist or a vulnerable in ways that we have not foreseen.
nation state all face far lower barriers to entry Having now painted a very grim picture, what
to create an impact that could have a disastrous are the solutions? In the first instance, we need
effect on a society, a company or an individual. to think multilaterally; we must visit and reform
existing institutions where they are no longer fit for
Nefarious actors purpose. This is not to say we should close down these
We are seeing this play out on a daily basis when it institutions, but they need to be adapted to make
comes to misinformation – whether the injection of them capable of addressing the problems at hand.
inaccurate information into political campaigns, or For example, the Ebola outbreak of 2014 underscored
the actions of a political or commercial adversary that the WHO was not able to manage the response.
to create a cloud of suspicion over a rival. Dozens of after-action analyses detailed many of the
Researchers have studied the trajectories of 126,000 problems. As a result, in 2019, the WHO announced
tweets and found that those propagating fake news the most wide-ranging reforms its history to modernise
consistently outperformed those containing true and strengthen the institution. The jury is still out
information, on average reaching 1,500 people six times as to whether there is more work to do – and it is
more quickly. We saw this play out in 2018 when an certainly under greater scrutiny at the moment given
incoming missile alert plunged residents of Hawaii into the current outbreak of Covid-19 – but scepticism of the
panic before it was declared to be a false alarm. Mobile moment allows for a disruption of the status quo and
phone users received a message saying: “Ballistic missile a rebuilding and reimagining of critical institutions.
threat inbound to Hawaii. Seek immediate shelter. This Acting under the umbrella of these multinational
is not a drill.” Human error, not a malicious actor, organisations, countries can – and should – look
triggered this particular alert, but it does highlight at development objectives through the prism of
vulnerability to the spread of misinformation and climate change, for example. Can we do more to
how unprepared we are to counter a disaster that co-ordinate our development aid to anticipate where
is propagated by the spread of misinformation. disasters will strike as a result of a heating planet?
Based on my experience, the spread of misinformation Turning to governmental aspects, there is an
– and the ability of nefarious actors to manipulate opportunity for new leaders to fill the vacuum.
information – create a real hazard that is still not fully This could go in many different directions, not
understood. Solving this problem transcends our typical all of them positive, but there is room for smaller
mechanisms and that dynamic allows for nefarious countries to step in and assume leadership.
actors to do a successful end run around any response. Likewise, at the non-political level, it’s vitally
I have also witnessed first-hand incidents where, important that officials shore up or strengthen existing
despite many attempts to respond to such malicious channels of communication – through intelligence,
misinformation, especially with regard to influencing law enforcement and defence, for example. And it is
elections, there was no clear way forward in terms of equally important to act across sectors, to reach out
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comment
to the non-governmental and corporate sectors, those outcomes. And it behoves this sector to conduct
in order to build channels of response. political risk analysis and due diligence before acting.
Th is brings me to the non-governmental sector, And what can we do at an individual level? We can
both the non-profit and for profit world, which contest inaccuracies, we can diversify, we can push
may have to step in and bridge the gap left corporations to act and push governments into action.
by government actors. While not their Ultimately, we need to rethink that the way that
traditional role, the corporate sector can societies engage collectively. In the absence of
identify opportunities for public-private leadership from governments, there is an opportunity
partnerships and push governments for corporations, non-governmental actors, and
into action. Rather than waiting individuals to influence the debate – push for reform,
for governments, it may have to build coalitions to fi ll the gaps, and create protections
create and advocate policy and that will extend beyond the short-term. There is also an
build coalitions to advocate for urgent imperative for them to do so.
Author
AMY POPE is a Partner
at Schillings. A seasoned
courtroom lawyer, she is
a skilled tactician and strategist.
Pope was US Deputy Homeland
Sofia Wrangsjo | Alamy Security Advisor to President
Barack Obama, where she led
personnel in high profile
Based on my experience, the spread of challenges such as managing
cyber attacks, terrorist threats,
misinformation – and the ability of nefarious natural hazards, violent extremism,
border security threats and
actors to manipulate information – create a disease outbreaks. She is a
Member of CRJ’s Advisory Panel
real hazard that is still not fully understood www.schillingspartners.com
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