COVID-19 UPDATE 5 February - The Security Centre
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COVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY COVID-19 UPDATE 5 February
COVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY COVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY
COVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY
Executive Summary Global Share of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases
The worldwide tally of COVID-19 cases has surpassed 104 million, with just under
2.3 million deaths. Europe and North America continue to be the worst affected 4% 0%
continents.
Globally, millions of new COVID-19 cases and tens of thousands of deaths continue 15% 22%
to be reported on a weekly basis. While such figures continue to cause concern,
global weekly case numbers are trending downwards and alongside mass
vaccination programs, it is hoped that global weekly deaths will begin to decline in
the coming weeks.
30%
However, this overall downward trend in new cases hides the fact that many 29%
countries have been grappling with surging case numbers for prolonged periods of
time. As a result, public health systems in many countries around the world are under
immense strain, particularly in places where health infrastructure was already fragile
pre-pandemic, such as in Yemen and Afghanistan. Indeed, UN Secretary-General Asia Europe North America South America Africa Oceania
Antonio Guterres on 28 January reiterated his call for a global ceasefire in order to
“focus on the enemy that all countries are facing.” However, developed countries
have also been running at risk of being overwhelmed, with Germany sending
medical aid to Portugal.
Meanwhile, public health authorities across the world continue to monitor a handful
of more contagious variants of the virus, most notably those which emerged in the
United Kingdom, Brazil and South Africa. The identification of the highly
transmissible strains, combined with concerns over vaccine efficacy and possible
increased mortality rates, has prompted countries across the world to implement, or
reimplement, stricter domestic measures and travel bans. Such restrictions are likely
to remain in place in the worst-affected countries and regions for the foreseeable
future.
Despite the concerns, many medical professionals and vaccine providers have
moved to assure people that the vaccines that are currently being rolled out against
COVID-19 will still work. Some have also announced that they are developing
“improved” vaccines that should take into account the variations that are out there.
In all, it is believed that, globally, there are around 4,000 variants of Covid now.COVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY Current Statistics (Numbers Vary Between Sources) Total Cases 104,991,738 Total Cases per 1 million 13,469 Confirmed Active Cases 25,826,199 (has Increased in past two weeks) Total Confirmed Recoveries 76,884,895 Total Confirmed Deaths 2,280,644 Country Specific Information (Countries Ordered by Number of Vaccine Doses Administered) Countries Confirmed Vaccine Doses Cases per 1 Million Population Confirmed Deaths per 1 Million Population United States 33.88 million 81,740 1,391 China 24.00 million 62 (sixty-two) 3 (three) European Union 14.33 million N/A N/A United Kingdom 10.52 million 56,857 1,606 Israel 5.21 million 72,723 538 India 4.45 million 7,774 111 United Arab Emirates 3.56 million 31,485 88 Germany 2.71 million 26,833 717 Brazil 2.52 million 43,756 1,066 Turkey 2.34 million 29,467 310 Italy 2.23 million 42,772 1,487
COVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY
Asia and Oceania In terms of the total number of vaccines administered, China is leading the
way in Asia. As of 4 February, around 25 million people have been
vaccinated, marking the second-highest tally globally. However, China’s
Asia's worst-affected nations rollout is proceeding slower than anticipated. Some 25 million doses means
that only around 1.6 percent of the country’s population have been given
India 10,791,123 their first shot. As a result, it is possible that Beijing may miss its modest goal
of having 3.5 percent of the population having had their first dose by mid-
Indonesia 1,111,671 February and Lunar New Year.
Additionally, the vast majority of those vaccinated in China have been given
Pakistan 549,032 the Sinovac vaccine, which was shown to be just over 50 percent effective
in recent trials conducted in Brazil. Nevertheless, several Asian countries
Bangladesh 536,545 have signed deals to procure the Sinovac vaccine, including Singapore,
Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
Philippines 530,109 India remains Asia’s worst-affected nation in terms of both total cases and
deaths, with around 10.8 million and 155,000 respectively. However, in-line
0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000
with the current global trend, daily new infections have been falling steeply
in recent weeks, from a peak of around 100,000 per day in mid-September
Asia remains the third worst-affected continent in terms of total COVID-19
2020 to an average of 13,000 in late January this year. This drop in infection
cases with nearly 11 million as of 4 February. The continent has suffered
rates has led to speculation that some areas of India, particularly its crowded
around 375,000 deaths, which is less than Europe, North or South America.
cities, may be nearing so-called ‘herd immunity’.
Meanwhile, Oceania remains the world’s least-affected continent with under
The decline in cases also comes as India embarks on an ambitious
51,000 cumulative cases and 1,100 total deaths as of 4 February. Moreover,
vaccination programme to inoculate roughly 300 million citizens by the end
Oceania’s daily infections remain well below 100, an impressively low
of August. The vaccination campaign, combined with the apparent natural
number that bears testament to the effective response to the pandemic by
slowing down of infections, have helped to ease public anxiety over the virus
countries in the region.
and allowed for a wider resumption of economic activity.
In Asia, a handful of countries have launched their national vaccination
The country is, however, also seeing slow results in its vaccination program.
programmes while others have recently approved, or are expected to
The country has given more than 4 million doses. As such, at this rate, even
approve, the use of vaccines in the coming weeks. When compared to
with an expected upscaling in dose administrations, it looks unlikely that the
Europe and North America, however, vaccine rollout on the continent has
country will reach its 300 million dose mark. Instead, it is currently being
been very slow. Indeed, few Asian nations have secured sufficient doses of
projected that 32 percent will be inoculated by 2022 and not August.
reliable vaccines to inoculate their entire populations; others may have
secured the vaccines on paper but thus far have no physical stocks. While infection rates decline in India, they continue to surge in Indonesia,
which has reported record numbers of daily infections in recent days. On 30COVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY January, the country confirmed over 14,000 new COVID-19 cases, a record daily rise that has seen total infections surpass 1.06 million. The government continues to face criticism over its poor testing and contact tracing rates, which are among the lowest anywhere in the world. Worse still, some health experts in the county have warned that hospitals in some areas are on the brink of collapse as a result of the recent uptick. Indeed, Lia Gardenia Partakusuma, secretary-general of the Indonesian Hospital Association (PERSI), called on the government to implement tougher restrictions to limit social contact, warning that failure to do so would see health systems in Java and Bali collapse. Elsewhere in Japan, three new types of the so-called ‘UK variant’ of COVID- 19 have been discovered in patients at the Tokyo Medical and Dental University Hospital, according to a research group studying coronavirus infections at the facility. Of those infected with the variants, none had travelled abroad, raising the possibility that the highly contagious strain(s) are already circulating in Japan. A representative of the research group that identified the new strains has urged the government to tighten border controls to limit the arrival of other variants.
COVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY
Europe supplies. Also, cynically, the coordinated vaccination program did present an
opportunity to expand EU powers.
Europe's worst-affected nations However, while the idea had merit, as well as the possibility to promote
European solidarity, coordinating with 27 countries in the middle of a
pandemic was not an ideal time to launch what was, in essence, a radical
Russia 3,901,204
change to health policymaking, centralising what was, before, managed by
individual countries.
UK 3,871,825
Elsewhere, in the UK, the country has announced that they will be launching
France 3,251,160
clinical trials on the safety and efficacy of mixing different vaccine types given
in first and second doses. This will be a world-first and it will be hoped that
this trial will show whether protection from mixing vaccines is the same,
Spain 2,913,389
reduced or even better, compared with adhering to the same vaccine
throughout. They will also be able to ascertain whether such a method may
Italy 2,583,790
be more preventive against the more infectious varieties which have
emerged across the world. If successful, the mixing of vaccines will allow the
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
UK, and other countries that adopt the practice, to be more flexible in their
In Europe, the furore over vaccines continues, despite a calming of the vaccination programs, potentially speeding up inoculation.
situation in recent days.
In France, the country is reported to have the smallest proportion of people
The erection of a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland by the “fully vaccinated” in Europe. Despite this, the French president has stated
European Union has been condemned by many. The plan has also been that all French people who are willing to be vaccinated against COVID-19
quickly rescinded and branded as a “mistake”. will be offered a vaccine by the end of summer.
Despite this, the European Commission leader Ursula von der Leyen, who In Italy, the majority of the country is now classified as being under “yellow”
is heavily under fire for her role in what has been deemed poor vaccine restrictions. No region is now classified as a “red” zone, and only five regions
rollout, announced the UK had compromised recklessly on safety and this is are classed as being “orange” zones. Yellow zones allow greater freedom of
why the UK's vaccination programme is going so well compared to the EU's travel within the regions and also allow for the daytime reopening of bars and
own efforts. restaurants. However, bans on non-essential interregional travel remain, as
However, much of the blame for the EU’s failure to deliver Covid-19 vaccines does the 10 pm to 5 am curfew, whilst a number of leisure venues such as
at pace lies with the European Commission, who over the summer convinced cinemas, casinos, and spas will all remain closed.
a co-ordinated vaccine drive, with themselves in charge. The main driver for In Poland where economic support has been limited and courts have
this push was political, with officials seeing the potential for dangerous repeatedly ruled that the governments national lockdown is technically
divisions to emerge between EU nations as they competed for scarce illegal, as they have not invoked any sort of state of emergency legislation
or passed the legislation through the law, only by presidential decree. AsCOVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY
such, the number of business and people openly flouting restrictions
continues to increase. Pubs, restaurants, ski resorts, shops and hairdressers
across the country have all begun to reopen as part of the “weopenup”
campaign which has seen broad support from across the business
community and even from some anti-government opposition groups.
Given that such activities currently have more than thirty court rulings in their
favour, it is likely that the government may have to seek to change its
strategy of not invoking a state of emergency if they wish for any sort of
lockdown to be adhered to. However, despite this, given that the “weopenup”
campaign has the support of around 70 to 75% of the Polish population, it
remains unclear how the government will be able to implement any strategy
at this stage.
In Portugal, the nation’s health service is now officially overwhelmed by
COVID-19 patients, and there is also now a shortage of medics to treat
patients. The country in its third wave has seen some of the world’s highest
seven-day averages for new daily cases. As a result, medical aid from
Germany in the form of 50 ventilators, 150 new intensive care beds and a
host of medical staff has arrived. Given the high transmission rates in
Portugal, it is likely that the country may yet receive further aid before it sees
its infection and hospitalisation rates begin to decline.
Countries Active COVID- Active Case Domestic International Travel
19 Cases Number Change Lockdown Restrictions
France 2,945,093 Increase High Moderate-High
Italy 434,722 Decrease High Moderate-High
Spain N/A Increase High Moderate-High
Germany 219,077 Decrease High Moderate-High
UK 1,957,577 Increase High Moderate-High
Russia 461,153 Decrease Moderate HighCOVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY
Americas well as seeing a decline in hospitalisations.
However, there are likely to be a number of tough months ahead for the
The Americas worst-affected nations country’s economy, with over 700,000 people losing their jobs in the past
week in the country.
USA 27,150,457
US share of Global Total
Brazil 9,339,921
Colombia 2,125,622
26
Argentina 1,952,744
Mexico 1,874,092
0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000
North America remains the worst-affected continent in terms of cumulative
cases with over 30.4 million as of 4 February, and the region has suffered
the second-highest death toll, surpassing 650,000 in recent days. South US cases as a percentage of all confirmed global COVID-19 cases
America trails North America, Europe and Asia in terms of total cases, with
around 15.8 million - roughly half that of North America – as of early In South America, Brazil remains the most afflicted nation, with roughly 9.2
February. million cases and 223,000 deaths as of 4 February, contributing to over half
of all the continent’s confirmed cases and deaths. In the past week,
North America, alongside Europe, continues to be at the epicentre of the
researchers in Brazil announced they had discovered patients infected with
pandemic and has routinely reported around 200,000 daily new cases in
two different strains of the virus simultaneously, prompting concerns among
recent weeks. The United States is by far the greatest contributor to daily
scientists that co-existence of different strains could be fuelling mutations of
case numbers and accounts for approximately 87 per cent of the continent’s
new variants. If this is proven to be the case, it is likely that many other new
total number of infections, as well as of a quarter of the world’s cases.
variants could already be circulating in the country, which could potentially
Despite this, the United States is seeing a decline in new cases, with the be more transmissible, deadly or less responsive to vaccines.
seven-day average down to 136,442 on 3 February. Such levels are similar
Elsewhere, Peru recently introduced strict new measures to limit the further
to those seen in November 2020 and give hope that the pressure on the
spread of the virus following a notable increase in new infections. In late
country’s health service will start to lessen in the coming weeks and months.
January, President Francisco Sagasti announced a complete lockdown in
The country is also reportedly administering 1.3 million vaccines per day asCOVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY Lima, the nation’s capital, and nine other regions amid fears the uptick in tax was passed by the Senate in December and will see those with assets cases could push hospitals to breaking point. Under the new government- worth more than 2.3 million dollars have to pay 3.5 per cent on domestic imposed restrictions, all non-essential shops have been shuttered and assets and more than 5 per cent on assets declared abroad. The new levy people will have to work from home where possible, while inter-regional air has drawn criticism from opposition political groups. On the other hand, and land travel has also been suspended, among other restrictions. The however, Oxfam described this levy as a progressive taxation of the rich and measures are set to remain in effect until at least 14 February, by which time a potential way towards an equitable recovery from the current crisis as the the country’s mass vaccination campaign should be well underway. key. In Bolivia, the country’s first vaccine was administered on 29 January after it received the first batch of 20,000 doses of the Sputnik V vaccine from Russia. Bolivia is set to receive 5.2 million doses of the Russian-made vaccine, as well as around 10 million of the Oxford developed AstraZeneca vaccine via India’s Serum Institute and the UN’s Covax distribution programme. The roll-out of vaccines in Bolivia comes amid a surge in new COVID-19 cases, prompting doctors to demand a national lockdown as hospitals struggle to cope with the increasing caseloads. In the past week, the Andean nation recorded its highest single-day record of over 2,800 infections. Despite this, the government has thus far been reluctant to impose nationwide lockdown restrictions as they feel it would be disastrous for the country’s reeling economy. In similar news, on 28 January, Chile received its first shipment of roughly two million doses of the Chinese Sinovac vaccine, which is intended to roll out in the first week of February. The vaccine had previously been approved by Chile’s health regulator in late January for use on people under the age of 60; however, the age limit could be ignored after a trial at Chile’s Catholic University appeared to indicate no adverse safety or efficacy effects in older participants. Chile had also previously approved the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine in late December, and, more recently, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. In Argentina, a one-off tax on Argentina’s wealthiest people came into effect on 29 January, which is designed to help fund medical supplies, provide relief for businesses struggling amid the pandemic and social aid. The new
COVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY
Africa continent total, impacting the data.
Regardless of the latest developments, the continent has, thus far, avoided
Africa's worst-affected nations the catastrophic coronavirus death tolls seen in the West. This is largely
thanks to its young and mainly rural population. However, one section of the
continent’s society is being impacted by the pandemic: politicians. Ageing
South Africa 1,463,016
government ministers, officials and social elites in some African countries
have succumbed to Covid-19 at what is being described as an alarming rate.
Morocco 473,047
As such, while the entire continent has seen less confirmed deaths than the
Tunisia 212,679
UK, a number of prominent officials have died. For example, in eSwatini
(formerly known as Swaziland) two cabinet ministers and its Prime Minister
Ambrose Dlamini have died. In South Africa, Zindzi Mandela, 59, the
Egypt 167,525
youngest child of Nelson Mandela, tested positive for Covid-19 in July and
died shortly afterwards. More recently, cabinet minister Jackson Mthembu
Ethiopia 139,408
has died. In Zimbabwe, four top leaders of the ruling Zanu PF party have
reportedly died of Covid-19. Most notably, Foreign Minister Sibusiso Moyo
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,0001,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,000
who died on 20 January.
Although Africa has suffered comparatively few COVID-19 cases and However, in a more positive development, on 28 January, Mr Nkengasong
deaths, with 3.6 million and 92,000 respectively, many countries are seeing announced a further 400 million COVID-19 vaccines had been secured
a significant resurgence of the virus – largely driven by the so-called South through the Serum Institute of India. The new doses will bolster the 270
African variant. Indeed, in the week up to 28 January, the World Health million that had been secured earlier in the month from Pfizer, Oxford-
Organisation noted that 22 African nations were grappling with rising AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson. Furthermore, the continent is
caseloads as a result of the emergence of the 501Y.V2 variant, which was expected to receive around 600 million doses via the global Covax vaccine
first identified in South Africa. initiative, which when combined with the aforementioned deals, will aid Africa
In another worrying trend, the head of Africa’s Centres for Disease Control in its race to vaccinate 60 percent of its population to achieve herd immunity.
and Prevention (CDC) recently warned that the continent’s case-fatality rate Despite this, a WHO representative said that inoculating 35 percent of
had surpassed the global average for the first time since the pandemic Africa’s population by the end of the year could be a “realistic assumption.”
began. On 21 January, John Nkengasong told reporters that Africa’s fatality
Unsurprisingly, South Africa remains Africa’s worst-affected nation by most
rate stood at 2.5 per cent, higher than the global level of 2.2 per cent.
metrics, including total cases, deaths and active cases. However, despite
Moreover, he said that 21 African nations had a rate above 3 percent,
concerns over the highly transmissible variant, daily new cases have been
including Egypt, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sudan.
trending downward since the country’s second peak in infections seen in
However, it is possible that many cases are going undetected by the medical early January. In recent days, daily cases have remained under 10,000 per
community, with only the more severe cases being counted towards the day, less than half the daily numbers reported between 6-9 January, whenCOVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY
new infections soared to over 21,000 a day.
Neighbouring Zimbabwe has extended its national lockdown measures until
at least 15 February in order to further curtail the spread of the virus. On 29
January, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, who also serves as the
country’s health minister, announced the extension during a live address on
the public Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation (ZBC). Under the lockdown,
restaurants, bars and other non-essential businesses are forced to close with
funerals are limited to 30 people while gatherings such as weddings and
church services are banned. An 18:00 – 06:00 curfew also remains in effect.
In Nigeria, President Muhammadu Buhari on 27 January signed the COVID-
19 Disease Health Protection 2021, which is made up of six parts. The new
regulations require people to wear face masks in public places, maintain
social distancing and limit gatherings to 50 people in enclosed spaces,
among other measures. Anyone caught contravening the regulations could
be fined or be sentenced to six months imprisonment.
Countries Active Active Case Domestic International Travel
COVID-19 Number Lockdown Restrictions
Cases Change
South Africa 93,992 Stable Moderate High
Nigeria 24,415 Slight Increase Moderate High
Morocco 12,944 Decrease Moderate High
Egypt 27,153 Slight Increase Moderate High
Kenya 15,330 Stable Moderate High
Algeria 31,276 Stable Moderate HighCOVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY
Middle East had largely seen the most restrictive restrictions slowly phased out, as long
as mask-wearing and social distancing were continued to be adhered to.
Middle East's worst-affected nations The Saudi Arabian government also announced that since the start of the
pandemic, no COVID-19 cases had been recorded as occurring amongst the
pilgrims who have visited the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.
Turkey 2,501,079
Iran, meanwhile, despite the ban by the Ayatollah on purchasing and
Iran 1,438,286 importing UK and US vaccines, has announced that they have purchased
4.2 million doses of the Oxford developed AstraZeneca vaccine. The
purchase was made by the country’s top epidemiologist through the WHO
Israel 668,874
vaccination procurement programme. The shipment of vaccines is expected
to arrive in Iran later this month.
Iraq 623,072
Meanwhile, there are growing signs of splits between the medical
establishment and government over the country’s commitment to using the
Saudi Arabia 368,945
Russian Sputnik vaccine. One of the country’s leading infectious disease
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 experts has stated that as it has not even been approved for use by the WHO
it is the “bad fortune of the Iranian people that the government was importing
In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia announced once again that it would be it”. Iran remains the worst-hit Middle Eastern country by the pandemic.
tightening restrictions as part of precautionary measures preventing potential
further spread of new COVID-19 variants in the country. Under the new The UAE which continues have differing levels of internal restrictions,
measures, arrivals from 20 countries have been suspended, apart from depending on the emirate, has announced that it is intent on building the
diplomats, Saudi citizens, and medical workers. While the ban is temporary capacity to manufacture COVID-19 vaccines and to provide medical and
there is currently no news on when it may expire. Some of the affected vaccine support to the region and wider international community. The UAE
countries include the US, the UK, France, India, Pakistan, the UAE, South continues to be one the country’s leading in the vaccination rollout per capita,
Africa, and Germany. with over three million now believed to have received some level of COVID-
19 vaccination coverage.
Alongside this, the Minister of Health also announced that for the next ten
days all recreational venues would be closed, and all events and weddings However, evidence has emerged that some travel companies are selling
would be postponed for a period of ten days to help try and stop the spread vaccines in the UAE to those wealthy enough to travel and “buy” their dose.
of new strains of the virus within the country domestically. The suspension This is the first evidence of a state using its vaccine supplies as a tourist
will be extended if the authorities deem it necessary. selling point and is likely to be copied by other countries desperate to restart
their tourist industries in the coming months.
It was warned last week by the Health Minister that if the existing regulations
continued to be flouted by citizens, then he would be left with little choice but In Israel, there has been a sharp fall in cases among the over-60s, who have
to impose more stringent restrictions on the country. Many in the Gulf region now mostly been immunised, and in areas of the country where theCOVID-19 UPDATE – 5 FEBRUARY
vaccination program is furthest along. This suggests that the vaccine is
showing signs of working to drive down infections and illness. Indeed, the
Israeli Ministry of Health figures show that only 531 over-60s, out of almost
750,000 that fully vaccinated, tested positive for coronavirus, which is less
than 1 percent.
The country’s government has also announced a three-stage lockdown exit
plan. In general, the first stage will see movement restrictions lifted, some
workplaces allowed to reopen, and younger children are will be allowed to
return to school. This will be following by low-risk sectors reopening and
finally high-risk sectors. Each stage has a specific vaccination target, a lower
than 1 R rate and less than a specified number of people hospitalised in a
serious condition – less than 800 patients in serious condition are required
for the second phase for example.
Countries Active Active Case Domestic International
COVID-19 Number Change Lockdown Travel
Cases Restrictions
Israel 74,615 Decrease High High
Saudi Arabia 2,159 Stable Light High
Iran 150,706 Decrease Moderate High
Qatar 5,940 Stable Moderate High
UAE 23,472 Decrease Light Moderate-High
Kuwait 6,906 Increase Moderate ModerateYou can also read
