Consumer Trends Report: Germany - Using online data to uncover political and commercial trends in Germany - Braingraph
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Consumer Trends Report: Germany
Using online data to uncover political and
commercial trends in Germany
1
Summary of Contents
1. About Us: Braingraph and Crimson Hexagon •F
uture of automobiles in Germany - which type of vehicles will
prevail? Will it be conventional hybrids, PHEVs (plug-in hybrid
2. Methodology
electric vehicles), BEVs (battery electric vehicles) or FCEVs (fuel
• Research approach
cell electric vehicles)
•D ata sources & tools (social data via Crimson Hexagon, search
data via Google trends)
• Timeline 5. Technology
• Limitations •P rivacy and data protection: How is Germany reacting to recent
data scandals?
3. Social & political trends
•G eneration mobile: how is the mobile phone changing German
• The last German election and the current political situation
consumer and shopping behaviour?
• Immigration as big controversial topic in Germany, driving political
• Home
automation as door for IoT tech in Germany: How Amazon
change and creating new political forces (AfD)
Alexa, Google Home, Nest and co are smarting up German homes
•G ermany and the European Union: concerns about stability in
•W earables and the quantified self: How smartwatches, fitness
Europe and its position with regard to Brexit
trackers and co are making German tech-affines more connected
•G ermany and the world: key topics in German conversations
than ever
about international politics
•D igital currencies and Blockchain: How is Germany reacting
4. Transportation to the latest development in digital currencies and blockchain
•A utomotive trends in Germany: The “Diesel-Skandal” and the technology?
political consequences
6. E
xecutive Summary: German key trends in 2018 through the lens
•A lternative transportation trends: self driving cars, e-mobility, car-
of online data
sharing, (electric) bikes
2
Table of Contents
About Braingraph 4
About Crimson Hexagon 5
Methodology 6
Approach 7
Data, timeline, and limitations 8
Research Results: Social and political trends 9
Elections 10
Immigration 13
Germany and the EU 16
Germany and the world 17
Research Results: Transportation 18
The diesel scandal 19
Alternative transport trends 22
The future of the auto industry 26
Research Results: Technology 30
Digital privacy 31
Mobile phone use 34
Home automation 40
Wearables 43
Digital currencies and Blockchain technology 46
Executive summary and conclusion 48
Appendix 52
3About Braingraph Audience data
Behaviour data
In today’s Digital Economy, understanding data is the key to unlocking Competitive behaviour
growth, increasing efficiency, and driving effectiveness. Consumer data
At Braingraph we are using behavioural science, big data and cutting edge Predictive data CRM data
technology to put that key into your hands. The following report about Geo data
German market trends is testament to that approach and proof of our
Performance data
commitment to create value by combining data, science and technology in
the most appropriate and meaningful way.
Through their partnership with Crimson Hexagon, Braingraph helps brands
and customers gain a keener insight into their customers and the markets
they operate within.
4About Crimson Hexagon
Crimson Hexagon helps global brands better understand their consumers. With instant access
to the world’s largest volume of unstructured text and images across social, online public,
and enterprise-held data sources, Crimson Hexagon’s AI-powered consumer insights platform
allows clients to analyze audiences, track brand perception and campaign performance, and
even detect competitive and market trends. Our clients include Anheuser-Busch InBev, Adidas,
General Mills, Paramount Pictures, and Twitter.
5Methodology
6Our approach
Digital Data Behavioral Insight
Digital data sources like social, extracting value Frameworks based on behavioral
search, stats, traffic data from the intersection science and empirical evidence
between data,
behaviour, and
technology
Technology
Using advanced analysis techniques including machine
learning, AI and predictive analysis
Market Competitor Consumer Performance Growth
analysis benchmark behavior analysis analysis
Value
Increased marketing effectiveness, reduced churn, improved
customer engagement, increased customer lifetime value
7Data, timeline & limitations
Data Limitations
• This report relies on search data (via Google trends), social data •A
lthough the highest standards of cross-validation and contextual
(via Crimson Hexagon), statistical data and trusted news source verification have been applied, this report should not be used as
(statistical and news sources referenced where applicable). Social the sole basis for decision making but is aimed to be an additional
data is composed of mentions on public social media platforms source of insight to be used alongside other robust research
(Twitter, Forums, Blogs, YouTube, Reddit, Instagram, public
•D
espite the highest levels of accuracy applied we do not guarantee
Facebook pages).
this report is free of any errors and reject any liability for decisions
•N
one of the data can be taken as absolute, which is why we made on the basis of this report
triangulated and cross-referenced all datasets wherever possible.
All data points should be questioned and interpreted in context and
constructive feedback is always appreciated.
Timeline
•S
ocial data used in this report reaches back as far as 2009, with
more remote data becoming less dense, rendering more recent
results generally more reliable
•S
earch trend data used in this report stretches back as far the last 5
years (2013-2018)
8Research Results: Social and Political Trends
• Elections: The most recent German election and the current political situation
• Immigration: The big controversial topic in Germany, driving political change and creating new
political forces (AfD)
• Germany and the European Union: Concerns about stability in Europe and its position with
regard to Brexit
• Germany and the world: Key topics in German conversations about international politics
9social/political trends
Bundestag*, by party, % of seats
The most recent German
Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) Social Democrats Alternative for Germany (AfD)
Free Democrats (FDP) The Left** The Greens
federal elections
Chancellor Parties in government Parties in opposition
1990
1991
1992
1993
Kohl
1994
Angela Merkel “won” the last German election on 24th September 1995
1996
2017 with her party (CDU/CSU) securing 33% of the vote. However, 1997
1998
she lost more than 8 percentage points from her total in the 1999
2000
Schroeder
previous election. 2001
2002
2003
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) also suffered, achieving 2004
2005
its worst result since the second World War, with just 20%. A 2006
2007 Grand Coalition
newcomer, AfD, became the third strongest party in the Bundestag 2008
2009
with 12.6%, whilst the Free Democrats (FDP) returned with 10.7% 2010
Merkel
2011
after losing all their seats in the 2013 election. 2012
2013
The other parties to achieve representation were the Left and the
2014
2015 Grand Coalition
2016
Greens, who each won close to 9%. 2017
Independent
2018 Grand Coalition
75 50 25 0 25 50
*Election result **Includes predecessors
Sources: ParlGov; Federal Returning Officer
Source: The Economist
10social/political trends
Conversations about Angela Merkel in Germany, in German Language (2009-2018)
Basic Positive (329k) Basic Negative (833k) Basic Neutral (363k)
30k Run-up to German
elections 2017
Rising frustration 25k Syrian refugee
crisis
The sentiment around Angela Merkel has been declining over time, Run-up to German
elections 2013
with peaks of negativity in the run up to the parliamentary elections 20k
(“Bundestagswahl”) in 2013 and 2017 as well as her involvement in Scandal around
Post Volume
the nomination of Christian Wulff as President of Germany, and her
Christian Wulff
15k
decision to open German borders to all Syrian refugees in 2016.
10k
5k
0
Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017
11social/political trends
Mentions vs Sentiment in Merkel Conversation in Germany, in German Language (2009-2018)
Mentions Net sentiment Trendline for net sentiment
400k
Increasing volume but declining net sentiment 300k
-11%
Angela Merkel has been increasingly discussed in German
public social media with key spikes in 2013 (German federal
Post Volume
parliamentary elections) and 2016 (fall-out of the refugee crisis). 200k -26%
-28%
Merkel’s net sentiment shows a clear downward trend with the -29%
scandal around German president Christian Wulff and the refugee -34% -35%
crisis marking key negative peaks in Merkel’s net sentiment. 100k -36% -36%
-40%
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12social/political trends
Political Key Topics
Immigration: a
Pensions Security
controversial topic Immigration
Family
Immigration: Germany’s biggest issue Education
Immigration is currently the biggest political topic in Germany,
followed by other large scale social issues like social injustice,
Environment
pensions, education and problems of the labour market.
Social Injustice
Labour market
Taxes
Source: Infratest
13social/political trends
Immigration: The “silent” issue with relevance
especially in Eastern Germany
Being the biggest political topic in Germany at the moment, it is
unsurprising that immigration is also strongly talked about.
Immigration is currently the most important political topic in
Germany. However, the online conversation about the topic is not
evenly distributed throughout the country. Surprisingly, the political Immigration related GDP per Capita in Percentage of
movement on the right is present predominantly in areas with conversations: darker Germany. Poorer areas people voting for
areas represent higher mapped in lighter AfD (“Alternative for
lower levels of online conversations about the topic. levels of conversations colours.2 Germany”), a right-wing
per capita.1 to far-right political
Source:
Statistisches Bundesamt party. Darker colour =
Source: Crimson Hexagon,
2015-2018 higher percentage.3
Source:
Morgenpost.de
14social/political trends
Outspoken xenophobia Rostock
The map (right) reveals per capita frequency of xenophobic
Hamburg
conversations. Berlin, Cologne and Hamburg lead the pack, but it is
worth noting that xenophobia is mostly an implicit behaviour. Bronen
Hanover
Berlin
Top Xenophobia Discussion by City/Urban Area
2k Dortmund GÖttingen
Leipzig Dresden
Posts per Capita (per million)
1.5k Cologne
1k
500 Nuremberg
Regensburg
0 Stuttgart
rg
g
el
h
rg
r
g
rg
ne
n
ve
ei
ic
zi
rli
Ki
bu
bu
bu
og
w
un
ip
no
Be
Co
en
ch
m
Le
l
M
n
Co
Ha
Ha
d
ns
Ol
Munich
au
Br
15social/political trends
Germany and the European Union
Is Germany’s relationship with the rest of Europe changing?
EU-related conversations in Germany show that, although still a big topic, Brexit-related conversations are slowly
declining whilst the relationship of a “European Germany” to the US is growing into a real and controversial topic.
Additional European topics of relevance include refugees (Flüchtlinge), Turkey (Türkei), Greece (Griechenland), and
Russia (Russland), but only the latter seems to have the potential to grow into a substantial topic of note in 2018.
title
2016 2017 2018
brexit usa time
griechenland
europäischen
kommission welt staaten gute
paar
belgien
russland
dafür bekommen türkei geben gb
russland
usa
china china
afrika frankreich
staaten geld berlin politiker
gar
trump asien frage
online
gerne schweiz deutschland
macht letzen natürlich deutsche saison europäischer regierung
nichts
nichts
gehen
länder
deutschen deutsche
welt politik recht
weiterhin
lösung ausland jemand fast afrika fraknreich
kommen bürger
flüchtlinge gar leider dafür merkel langen
schulz geben
frau weg griechenland jemand recht
weg genau
türkei jahr
richtigdenen
merkel deutschedürfte euro politik
land
länder
cdu groko
zeit trump
herr
kommen
spd ausland
welt
land afd politik gemacht
länder
türkei besser leute klar braucht jahr zeit
europäischer
entlich macht nichts asien
markt briten möchte land
krise berlin
staaten klar
gb macht gar
genau bild
europäischer
frage raus sicher
vielleicht
euch
parlament flüchtlinge weg tun
nato
demokratie gehen
brexit
schulz
richtig bishereuch
usa jahr
bleibt
euro egal
geid grenzen
problem vielen brexit
problem merkel somit
16social/political trends
Germany & the world
While Brexit conversations in Germany are cooling down, the US
conversation is just heating up, especially in regard to Donald macron
deutschland
Trump. Other international political topics — Russia/Putin,
politische
Britain/Brexit, Turkey/Erdogan and even Syria — don’t approach russland
frankreich
the volume of conversation dedicated to the US and #Trump, afd
europa merkel wählen
sagen zeit
who has even become a part of mainstream media and German eu bild
advertising.
syrien
putin politiker tatsächlich macht
deutsche wahl
braucht china jahr
weiẞ assad
orban
brexit
nichts
lässt
keinen
hätte sollten politik
seinen
besser
trump
kommen
medien gehört
partei erdogan donald
frau jong
bush scheint land
kim
usaweltgewählt
präsidenten naja
nordkorea weit
obama sicher problem präsident clinton
eher
polen
realdonaldtrump
17Research Results: Transportation
• The “Diesel-Skandal”: Political and commercial consequences
• Alternative transportation trends: Self-driving cars, e-mobility, car-sharing, (electric) bikes
• The future of automobiles in Germany: Which type of vehicles will prevail?
18transportation
German Conversations About the Diesel Scandal (2015-2018)
The diesel scandal Basic Positive (7.5k) Basic Neutral (11.6k) Basic Negative (46.7k)
In February
8k 2018, the
highester
#Dieselgate was a major scandal that generated more than 65,000 German federal
administrative
conversations on German public social media between October 7k Scope of Dieselgate becomes
known to be much greater; in July court rules that
2017, EU commission investigates driving bans
2015 and the publication date of this report. The conversation is 6k
German car manufacturers for for Diesel cars
are generally
building a cartel
highly critical with a net sentiment of -59% (over 70% of mentions VW diesel scandal
possible
breaks in Oct 2015
are negatively sentimented). 5k
Post Volume
The legal and financial consequences of the scandal are vast and 4k
varied, affecting up to 13 of the 15 million Diesel cars in Germany.
3k
The scandal mainly affected VW, Porsche and Audi, ranging from
driving bans to fines, including an estimated 24.4 billion Euros in 2k
costs for Volkswagen alone.
1k
Source: Infratest
0
Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Jul 2017
19transportation
#Dieselgate: The fall-out Change in New Car Registrations in Germany by Fuel Type (Jan-Mar 2017 vs 2018)
Petrol +20.3
Volkswagen’s stock has largely , but not completely, recovered
from the scandal. Share prices originally plummeted over 60%, but Diesel -21.3
now rest at a 20% loss compared to the pre-scandal high in 2015. Liquid Gas +18.5
However, diesel car sales in Germany have declined 21% between Natural Gas
+433.2
Q1 2017 and Q1 2018. Car-buying conversations have also shown
a relative decrease in purchase intent for VW compared to rival
Hybrid +64.1
brands, Ford and Fiat. Plug-In
+60.5
Purchase Intent VW vs Competitors (in German Social Media) Electro +79.9
Change in new car registrations in Germany by Fuel type January to March Net Change in New Car Registrations
VW Ford Fiat VW vs Competitor Data
2.5% Change in new car registrations in Germany by fuel type 2018 compared to same time period
2017 (Source: KBA)
2%
Percent Change in New Car Registrations
Volkswagen Share Price Development (2013-2018)
1.5%
250
Dieselgate
1%
200
.5%
150
Share Price
0%
-.5% 100
-1%
50
-1.5%
18
ay 18
M r 20 8
n 17
v 17
pt 17
Se l 20 7
ay 17
M r 20 7
n 16
v 16
pt 16
Se l 20 6
ay 16
M r 20 6
n 15
v 15
pt 15
Se l 20 5
ay 15
M r 20 5
n 14
v 14
p 14
l 4
ay 14
M r 20 4
0
a 1
Ju 201
a 1
Ju 201
a 1
Ju 201
a 1
Ju 201
a 1
20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M 20
Ja 20
No 20
M 20
Ja 20
No 20
M 20
Ja 20
No 20
M 20
Ja 20
No 20
Se 20
M 20
n
Ja
Source: Bloomberg/NZZ 20transportation
Best-Selling Car Brands in Europe
Sales in 2016 Sales in 2017
1.8m
1.6m
1.4m
1.2m
Car Sales
#Dieselgate: Big picture
1m
800k
600k
Looking at this from a “Europe Only” Perspective, the scandal 400k
doesn’t seem to have impacted Volkswagen that much. With only 200k
0
minor YoY sales changes for 2017 vs. 2016, the brand remains the
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
en
+4 lt
l
rd
t
+6 s
W
-0 i
+4 t
e
d
eo
a
de
u
.9
.5
.3
-5
+7
.4
.5
.5
.5
Op
Au
Fi
BM
Fo
ag
na
-0
-0
+0
ug
ce
biggest car manufacturer in Europe with slightly over 1.7 million
w
Re
Pe
er
ks
M
l
Vo
cars sold in Europe alone (source: ACEA). Best-Selling Car Models in Europe
The only visible “hiccup” in Volkswagen’s car sales was in March Sales in 2016 Sales in 2017
500k
2017 when they temporarily lost the number one selling position to
Ford (Fiesta becoming the most sold European car instead of VW 400k
Golf), but VW regained that position for the whole year 2017 with 300k
Car Sales
483,105 cars sold (only 2% less than 2016). 200k
100k
0
%
%
2%
5%
%
1%
5%
2%
0%
4%
lio
f
lo
ta
ai
8
n
sa
a
ra
l
vi
ua
20
Go
-2
+4
-2
q
Po
st
es
tC
or
-1
-1
+3
-1
-1
-1
ta
sh
g
lA
Fi
ot
lC
VW
Oc
Ti
VW
ul
Qa
ge
al
rd
na
al
VW
da
xh
Fo
xh
n
u
Re
sa
Pe
u
o
u
Va
Sk
Va
s
Ni
21transportation
Alternative Transport
Trends Search Interest Over the Past 5 Years in the German Market
Going electric Electric Car Autonomous Car Carsharing Electric bicycle
100%
It’s not just electric cars — electric bikes
are on the rise in Germany too. E-bikes
are showing double the amount of search 75%
demand as electric cars. Concerns about the German government
infrastructure needed to support electric cars announces 4,000€
buyer’s premium
don’t seem to extend to e-bikes.
Axis Label
50%
25%
0%
Apr 28, 2013 Jan 18, 2015 Oct 9, 2016
22transportation
Transportation Methods Share of Voice Trend
Car Sharing (20%) Driverless Cars (10%) E-Bikes (23%) Electric Cars (47%)
100%
90%
The rise of the e-bike 80%
70%
Share of Voice Comparison
The graphic to the right reinforces that e-Bikes are an increasingly 60%
popular transportation trends in Germany. Despite the rapid
50%
growth, though, e-Bikes still only account for half the conversation
40%
volume dedicated to electric cars.
30%
20%
10%
0%
8
r 2 18
Ap 20 7
Ja 20 7
Oc 20 7
r 17
Ap 20 6
Ja 20 6
Oc 20 6
r 16
Ap 20 5
Ja 20 5
Oc 20 5
r 15
Ap 20 4
t 2 14
Oc 20 4
r 14
Ap 20 3
t 2 13
Oc 20 3
r 13
Ap 20 2
t 2 12
Oc 20 2
r 12
Ap 20 1
Ja 20 1
Oc 20 1
r 11
Ap 20 0
Ja 20 0
Oc 20 0
r 10
01
n 1
t 1
Ju 201
n 1
t 1
Ju 201
n 1
t 1
Ju 201
n 1
Ju 201
n 1
Ju 201
n 1
Ju 201
n 1
t 1
Ju 201
n 1
t 1
Ju 201
Ja 0
Ja 0
Ja 0
Ap 20
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
n
Ja
23transportation
E-Bikes v E-Cars Share of Voice Trend
E-Bikes (33%) Electric Cars (67%)
100%
90%
E-bike beats e-car in net sentiment and growth 80%
70%
Share of Voice Comparison
German social media conversations about e-bikes show a 60%
stronger net growth (2010-2018) compared to conversations
50%
about electric cars. E-bikes also beat electric cars in net sentiment
40%
by 8 percentage points. The only caveat here is that e-bike
30%
conversations seem to be highly seasonal, spiking the most in the
warmer summer months. 20%
10%
0%
8
r 2 18
Ap 20 7
Ja 20 7
Oc 20 7
r 17
Ap 20 6
Ja 20 6
Oc 20 6
r 16
Ap 20 5
Ja 20 5
Oc 20 5
r 15
Ap 20 4
t 2 14
Oc 20 4
r 14
Ap 20 3
t 2 13
Oc 20 3
r 13
Ap 20 2
t 2 12
Oc 20 2
r 12
Ap 20 1
Ja 20 1
Oc 20 1
r 11
Ap 20 0
Ja 20 0
Oc 20 0
r 10
01
n 1
t 1
Ju 201
n 1
t 1
Ju 201
n 1
t 1
Ju 201
n 1
Ju 201
n 1
Ju 201
n 1
Ju 201
n 1
t 1
Ju 201
n 1
t 1
Ju 201
Ja 0
Ja 0
Ja 0
Ap 20
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
l
n
Ja
24transportation
Key adoption issues around e-bikes and electric cars in Germany
Mobility restrictions for charging electric vehicles still dominate the e-vehicle
conversation. Both discussions focus on battery limitations — too weak (for e-bikes)
or too small a range (“reichweite”). Other common criticisms focus on e-bikes’
perception as being ridiculous (“lacherlich”) while electric cars are often called out for
their high price (“teuer”).
E-Bikes Word Clusters Electric Cars Word Clusters
strom eigentlich
verkümmert
km verdoppelt
fahrer verbrenner
bergab nachts finde
nächtsten möcht
tesla
wert einsatz
auto
lächerlich fall nie parken
nie blätze
vorallem
gegenüber elektroautos morgen
pedelecs
geparkt
kommen
deutschland industrie verlust obergeschoss
fahre
fährt weniger
dafür lange jemand
jahraut zweirad
sprichwörtlich
model
gegen genau kaufen
nichts
problem
zivjenen
unerträglich
verband aut bringt
fahrrad verkauft chinesen bedeutet leute
reichweite bmw mobility
weniger
autos weiẞ
verzweifelt
diesel
schmerzhafter zustand hybrid leider
teuer
auto
theoretisch echt normalen macht
beste dinge
trail jahr
fahre
akku eider
meinem immer
problem meinen
elektro
25transportation
The future of the auto
industry
The future is hybrid Search Interest Over the Past 5 Years in the German Market
Electric Car Autonomous Car Carsharing Electric bicycle
Hybrid technology (using more than one form 100%
of onboard energy) could have the potential
to become the next engine standard in
Germany and elsewhere. While still limiting 75%
Google Trends Search Interest
the negative impact on the environment, German government
announces 4,000€
hybrid engines are also less reliant on electric buyer’s premium
charging infrastructure. 50%
25%
0%
Apr 28, 2013 Jan 18, 2015 Oct 9, 2016
26transportation
Title
fahren toyota plug massenproduzierte
besser
hybridautos zweiten befindet
platz
prius liste zhang
markt
welt
Fuel cell hybrid
hybridfahrzeug wasserstoffantrieb
zusammen elektro
autofamilie
geschreiben
hybridfahrzeuge hev
motor
Fuel cell technology is another big topic in the conversation about strom electromotor
akku fahrzeuge
mercedes
hybrid vehicles. Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) are electric vehicles that
elektrisch
hybrid
km bmw zukunft
hybridantrieb
use a fuel cell instead of — or in addition to — a battery to power an problem fahrzeug
phev
electric motor, as a completely clean form of transportation. wasser kommen
autos bev outlander
akkus diesel deutschen
brennstoffzelle
(fuel cell)
wasserstoff
27transportation
Mentions in Future Transport Conversations vs Brands
Which brands lead in future tech?
Total of 31,834 conversations in German public social media, 2010-2018.
3k
German car brands aren’t considered industry leaders in
Mentions in future transport conversations
2.5k
conversations about the future of transport.
The most mentioned brand in this context is Toyota, whose 2k
Prius model is discussed on German social media as a model of
1.5k
sustainable transportation.
The first German brand considered a leader is Volkswagen, 1k
with less than half (1,328 vs. 2,877) of the conversation volume
500
mentioning the future of transport. BMW follows close behind with
1,303 conversations. 0
Toyota Volkswagen BMW Mercedes Audi Porsche
28transportation
Sample conversations from German public social
media (Forums, 2016-2018)
So wenig Sprit schlucken Stromautos
...praxisnahen Erläuterungen. Ich stimme Dir in allen Punkten zu, und halte den
zitierten Punkt der “lokalen Elmissionsfreiheit” für den wichtigsten. Ich bin zwar noch
kein reines E-Auto gefahren, aber ein Hybridfahrzeuge (den Prius+) und war sofotr von
der Ruhe begeistert, die in diesem Auto herrscht. Vor allem im Stadtverkehr: Da wo
mein D-CAT an der Ampel vor sich hinnagelt, herrscht im...
Post on motortalk.de
Toyota Prius conversation rising in Germany ...Prius IV läuft, läuft er mit 40% Wirkungsgrad. Sobald der Benziner im Golf GTE läuft,
läuft er mit Glück bei 33.5%. Und deswegen wird auch andersrum ein Schuh draus:
Since its debut, Toyota’s Prius has been considered one of the Der Plug-in-Hybrid spart im Stadverkehr und bei niedrigen Geschwindigkeiten, in
most futuristic and efficient vehicles, thanks to its reduced noise denen der Benziner nicht laufn muss und die Akkuladung aushält. Auf der BAB und
emissions and energy-efficient technology. As a result, it has nach
become an increasingly prevalent topic of conversation among
German car experts, especially on forums. Nichts davon braucht die Prius-Konstruktion. Der Prius ist bereits konzeptionell
ausschlieẞich als reines Hybrid-Fahrzeug enstanden, dessen hohe Gesamteffizienz
und gute Emissionswerte ein Gesamtpaket aus den Komponenten Rekuperation von
Bremsenergie + (saugrohreinspritzenden) Motor im Atkinsonprinzip + studenloses
Planetengetriebe + Aerodynamik + Leistungsverzweigung darstellt. Das System ist
nicht umsonst patentiert, während alle anderen Hersteller mit komplexeren, teureren
und aufwändigeren Lösungen “drum herum” bauen müssun.
Gepaart mit der extremen Haltbarkeit und Langzeituverlässigkeit der gesamten
Technik, die bisher noch immer unerreicht von der Konkurrenz ist. Dauertests und die
Erfahrungen von Taxi-Unternehmern (die immer mehr auf den Prius umsteigen und ihre
alten Diesel-Flotten ausmustern) sprechen Bände. Die sehr hoch Messlatte von Toyota
mussen andere erst erreichen.
29Research Results: Technology
• Digital privacy and data protection: How Germany is reacting to recent data scandals
• Generation mobile: How the mobile phone is changing German consumer and shopping
behaviour
• Smart homes and IoT: How Amazon Alexa, Google Home, Nest and others are smarting up
German homes
• Wearables and the future of fitness: How smartwatches, fitness trackers and other wearables
are helping German techies stay active
• Digital currencies and Blockchain: How Germans are reacting to the latest developments in
digital currencies
30technology
Digital Privacy Search Interest (German Market)
Datenschutz DSGVO Cambridge Analytica
100%
Google Trends Search Interest
80%
Digital privacy 60%
40%
German interest in data protection highest in 15 20%
years
0%
The volume of online conversation about data protection in Apr 28, 2013 Jan 18, 2015 Oct 9, 2016
Germany shows that interest in this topic has never been higher
over the last 15 years. While some of this conversation focuses Digital Privacy Search Interest (UK Market)
Data protection GDPR Cambridge Analytica
on recent data breaches (like Cambridge Analytica), most of the 100%
discussion centers around recent EU-driven regulation changes,
Google Trends Search Interest
like GDPR. When we compare UK search trends to those in 80%
Germany, we see that the data-protection topic generally receives 60%
about 60% more attention in Germany than the UK.
40%
20%
0%
Apr 28, 2013 Jan 18, 2015 Oct 9, 2016
31technology
Sentiment of German Data Protection Conversations
100%
80%
Sentiment Proportion
60%
40%
20%
53%
29%
18%
Data protection is trending on German social 0%
Positive Neutral Negative
media
Data protection is a hot topic in German social media German Data Protection Conversations (2010-2018)
conversations, fuelled primarily by consumer and IT professional 193k+ conversations, 25% in the last 12 months alone
Most recent spike
debates over privacy related changes to platforms like Facebook 8k
driven by Cambridge
Analytica
and Google as well as new government policies. The peaks in 7k
German data protection conversations highlight the history of big 6k
GDPR/DSGVO
data leaks and general privacy policy changes. conversations
5k
Post Volume
Anonymous and Concerns about
Wikileaks-related Concerns about
Facebook’s graph government data
4k data leaks
search function retention policies
3k
2k
1k
0
Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017
32technology
Data Privacy Fear Word Cloud
Fear of data theft rising among Germans
datendiebstahl
datenklau google datenschützer
German “angst” about privacy violations and data breaches stem macht deutsche facebook
nsa
from a variety of topics, including: welt interessieren
internethätte german
davor sensible
angst
• Data and identity theft leuten
sicherheit
ersrech
gruppenrichtlinien freiheit
• Violations of personal privacy windows statt
personenbezogene sagen
leute
wissen
tun
•Exposure of sensitive, personal information (such as medical or
hast
daranhindern berlin
bank records) erschweren bringen microsoft
dsgvo deutschland
daten persönliche
privätsphäre nehmen
wochen möchte
• Breach of financial information
wichtig
nichts
möglichkeiten
eindeutig wenig weiẞ
gameforge
recht
dart
• Intelligence
agencies like NSA, BND, MI5 and their habit to besorgt
steuergeheimnis eingeführt mache
infringe on personal freedom
entgegen
33technology
Title
Jan 2018 Germany
Total Internet Active social Mobile Active mobile
population users media users subscriptions social uses
Mobile phone use 82.20 74.81 38.00 110.97 30.00
million million million million million
Germany has arrived at total mobile penetration Urbanization Penetration Penetration Penetration Penetration
As of the beginning of 2018, there are more mobile phones in 76% 91% 46% 135% 36%
Germany than citizens. In fact, Germany now has 135% mobile
Jan 2018 Global
phone penetration (graphic one), which is interesting considering
Total Internet Active social Mobile Active mobile
that the country’s general internet penetration is only 91%. population users media users subscriptions social uses
While Germany is a global leader in terms of mobile phone
penetration, the country still lags behind worldwide standards of
active mobile social media use (graphic 2).
7.593 4.021 3.196 5.135 2.958
billion billion billion billion billion
Urbanization Penetration Penetration Penetration Penetration
55% 53% 42% 68% 39%
Adapted from chart by We Are Social by Simon Kemp
34technology
Mobile Cellular Subscriptions per 100 People
Germany UK US World Europe & Central Asia
140
Early diffusion of mobile phone use in Germany 120
At this point, German citizens are among the heaviest mobile
100
phone users in the world, according to The World Bank.
Number of Subscriptions
The seemingly paradoxical rate of 130 mobile phones per 100
80
people (in 2009) was likely caused by the duplication of phone 60
subscriptions for both work and private phones.
40
20
0
16
14
12
10
08
06
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
35technology
Average Monthly Data Volume per Mobile Subscription
in Germany 2009-2017 (in megabytes)
1000
Exponential mobile data usage in Germany 800
Data volume in megabytes per month
Mobile data volume is growing at an exponential rate in Germany,
with the average user set to surpass 1GB monthly use in 2018, 600
according to data from Statista.
What’s driving this rapid growth? Faster mobile internet 400
850
connections have fuelled a significant growth in mobile app 591
culture, as well as more widespread usage of image (e.g. 200 404
Instagram) and video (e.g. Netfilx) intensive apps. 289
52 195
27 114
76
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Statista
36technology
Top 10 Downloaded Apps Android vs. iOS (April 2018, Germany)
Android users prioritize iPhone users focus on gaming
Most downloaded apps in the German market communication and social apps
What are the most downloaded apps in the German market by Top 10 Android Apps Top 10 iPhone Apps
category? 1. WhatsApp Messenger 1. Harry Potter: Hogwarts Mystery
• Communication (e.g. WhatsApp, Facebook Messenger, email, 2. Facebook 2. Love Balls
internet browser) 3. Google Play services 3. Helix Jump
•G
aming (Harry Potter, Love Balls, Helix Jump, MMX Hill Dash) 4. Google 4. ApoRed - Das Spiel
5. Google Chrome 5. WhatsApp Messenger
• Social (Instagram, Facebook, Snapchat)
6. YouTube 6. MMX Hill Dash 2- Race Offroad
• Entertainment (YouTube)
7. Instagram 7. Instagram
• Tools (Google Maps, Google Play) 8. Facebook Messenger 8. YouTube
9. Samsung Internet Browser 9. Google Maps
10. WEB.DE Mail 10. Snapchat
Source: SimilarWeb
37technology
Germany lags behind in mCommerce
Not only does the German eCommerce market still lag behind the UK, the German mCommerce
(mobile purchasing) market also trails, according to data from ecommercenews.
But, what is causing this gap? There are many factors contributing to this, but one of the major
reasons is German risk-averse attitudes toward data security and mobile payments.
Retail mCommerce Sales in Germany (2016-2021) Retail mCommerce Sales in the UK (2016-2021)
Retail mCommerce sales % change % of retail eCommerce sales Retail mCommerce sales % of retail eCommerce sales % of total retail sales
40b 70b
$36b
$34b £62b
35b 60b
$31b £55b
30b $28b 50b
£49b
25b $24b £43b
40b
$19b £36b 50% 52%
Sales
48%
Sales
20b
43% 46%
42% 40% 42% 42% 30b £27b
15b 37% 39%
20b 39%
10b
33%
10b
5b 23% 7%
15% 12% 13%
12% 7% 6% 10% 11%
0 10% 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via mobile devices, regardless of the method of Note: includes products or services ordered using the internet via mobile devices, regardless of the method of
payment or fulfillment; includes sales on tablets; excludes travel and event tickets. Source: eMarketer, Jan 2018 payment or fulfillment; includes sales on tablets; excludes travel and event tickets. Source: eMarketer, Dec 2017
Charts adapted from visualizations from ecommercenews.
38technology
Mobile Phone-Related Conversations in Germany
Batteries improve and streaming
goes mainstream 2013-2015 2016-2018
Short battery life (‘akku’) has been a
common topic of conversation in Germany
for several years, but declining social media
conversations about the topic suggest that it
has become slightly less of a problem.
At the same time, conversations about TV
and video streaming have increased, while
the app ecosystem has remained a relevant
and popular topic.
39technology
Home automation
Home automation market is growing
Compared to other markets (specifically US, Japan, and UK) the German IoT market is still
underdeveloped. In 2016, less than 10% of German adults owned an IoT device - most likely
a wireless speaker. However, the German IoT market is growing, mostly driven by B2C home
automation devices.
Among those, Amazon Alexa and Google Home have become catalysts for demand, connecting
home automation with a convenient way of controlling connected home systems.
Search Interest Over the Past 5 Years in the German Market IoT Revenue Prediction (2010-2020) IoT Devices Owned by Internet Users in Germany (July 2014)
Amazon Alexa Google Home Smart Home 50b
100% Wireless speaker 9%
40b
Fitness tracker 4%
Expenditure in billions of Euros
75% Smart watch 4%
Google Trends Search Interest
30b Surveillance security
system 3%
50b
50%
Connected car 2%
20b
Amazon Alexa Connected home
launches in Germany appliance 2%
Sept 14, 2016
10b 25b Smart lighting
2%
25% system
14b
9b Smart thermostat 2%
4b 6b
0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
0%
Jan 25, 2015 Oct 16, 2016 % of respondents
Source: Statista Source: eMarketer
40technology
Home Automation Conversations in the German Market (2010-2018)
6k
Home automation heats up in the winter 5.5k
5k
Conversations about home automation in Germany seem to
4.5k
follow a seasonal pattern, with peaks shortly before and after the 4k
beginning of a new year. 3.5k
Total Volume
3k
While some of this seasonality is the result of traditional sales
2.5k
patterns, a big part is also due to winter weather, when Germans 2k
are more likely to buy, install and talk about home automation 1.5k
technologies. 1k
500
0
Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017 Jan 2018
41technology
Home Automation Conversations in the German Market (2014-2018)
WiFi speakers dominate home automation steuerung
smarthome
Within the German conversation about home automation mufug
fax
software connect
technology, smart speakers (like those made by Sonos) are pi dect soundbar
rasperry musik
especially dominant. Hifi stereo systems have long been an homematic iot cloud openhab gekauft
important part of German households, but now many consumers sensorandswitch
ip internet magenta läuft
sonos
are swapping them out for more cutting edge wireless versions. problem
funktioniert system
After Sonos, Amazon (Alexa), Devolo (fast wireless systems), google telekom
Telekom Magenta (ISP / smart home solutions) and Philips (Hue / smart tv box
echo
alexa nutze devolo playbar
connected lighting) flesh out the home automation conversation in lautsprecher
fritz
steurn
app hue router lan
Germany. amazon dlan wlan thema
aktuell
raumfel
apple geräte
philips
42technology
Home Automation Conversations in the German Market (2014-2018)
Germany US/UK
80%
70%
60%
Total Volume
50%
40%
30% 62%
20% 45%
37% 37%
Germany is catching up in wearables 10%
0%
8% 8% 4%
The German wearables market is still underdeveloped compared Smartwatch Fitness band Smart glasses Smart clothing
to the UK and US, but it is growing significantly year over year.
Wearables Penetration by Market (March-December 2016)
Smartwatches and fitness trackers are especially popular,
United States United Kingdom Germany France Italy
according to PwC. 20%
16%
Market Penetration Rate
15%
12% 12%
10%
10% 11%
8% 8%
5% 7%
5%
5%
0%
March 2016 May 2016 July 2016 September 2016 November 2016
Source: Kantar
43technology
Search Interest Over the Past Five Years in the German Market
Fitbit Smartwatch Activity tracker Apple watch
Apple is driving the wearables conversation, but 100
Fitbit is gaining steam
75
German interest in wearables has been continuously growing for
several years. Apple (with its smartwatch specifically) has been
Axis
50
driving the conversation, but Fitbit is gaining popularity and carving
out a growing market for activity trackers. 25
0
May 5, 2013 Jan 25, 2015 Oct 16, 2016
44technology
Apple and Fitbit dominate German wearables
market
Within the werables conversation, Apple and Fitbit are the
two dominant brands, followed by Samsung. As a result, user-
generated photos of food, fitness, and performance tracking are
Wearables Conversations in the German Market (2014-2018)
becoming increasingly more common. iphone
kaufen
hätte
watch
ipad
series
Common Objects in the Wearables Conversation
apple
zeit
schön
fitnessmotivation
frage smart
17% Food armband
sport
wocher abnehmen fitnesstracker
app genau
handy charge
funktioniert
tracker fit
fitbit
fitfamtraining
14% Produce möchte
samsung
gear uhr
super
zufrieden fitbitcharge2
fitness
workout
gym
wearables laufen
8% Circle
meinem
android
motivation schritte
applewatch
smartwatch
glass
6% Physical fitness smartphone google
fitnessarmband
wearable
6% Person
45technology
Digital currencies &
Search Interest in Cypto Over the Past Five Years in the German Market
Bitcoin (payment system) Ripple (payment protocol) Blockchain (topic)
100
blockchain technology 75
Bitcoin dominates German search interest for
digital currencies
Axis
50
In terms of cryptocurrency interest in Germany, it’s all about
Bitcoin. The next on the list, Ripple, accounts for only about 10% 25
of the search volume of Bitcoin, and blockchain has yet to make a
real impact in Germany.
0
May 5, 2013 Jan 25, 2015 Oct 16, 2016
46technology
Digital Currencies & Blockchain in the German Market (2013-2018)
25k
20k
Social volume about digital currencies peaked in
2017 15k
Total Volume
German online conversations about cryptocurrencies and
10k
blockchain reached a peak in 2017 — when Bitcoin prices spiked —
but have been declining ever since.
5k
0
Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2017
47Executive Summary
48Executive Summary
Social & Political Trends Transportation
• The last German election has resulted in a more complex and •#
Dieselgate was the biggest scandal within the German automotive
fragmented political landscape in Germany, and the public opinion industry in the last decade and has generated more than 65,000
about Chancellor Angela Merkel, reflected in her social sentiment, conversations on German public social media from October 2015
has been declining over time, mostly driven by her controversial through the time of writing this report.
immigration politics related to the Syrian refugee crisis.
•A
lthough the Volkswagen scandal affected up to 12 million diesel
• Immigration and social injustice are the two biggest political cars in Germany alone and cost the company more than $30 billion,
topics in Germany at the moment. Although the backlash against social conversation and stock prices suggest that the company has
immigration is driving an increase in right-wing votes, especially in largely recovered.
Eastern Germany, the topic remains mostly undiscussed online and
appears to be a ‘silent issue’.
•B
rexit-related conversations are slowly declining, while worries
about Donald Trump and Germany’s relationship with the US are
rising.
49Transportation (cont.) •W
ithin the topic of hybrid cars, fuel cell technology appears to be the
most promising alternative to traditional engines.
•D
iesel car sales declined 21% for Q1 2018 YoY in Germany.
•G
erman auto brands aren’t considered leaders in conversations
•G
erman car buying conversations show a relative decrease in about the future of transport. The Prius, manufactured by Toyota, is
purchase intent for VW compared to rival brands Ford & Fiat, the most discussed sustainable model.
indicating a longer-lasting damage of reputation for the VW Brand as
a result of the scandal. • The first German brand to follow is ironically Volkswagen, with less
than half (1,328 vs. 2,877 for Toyota) conversations mentioning
•W
ith only minor YoY sales changes for 2017 vs. 2016, the VW brand future of transport.
remains the biggest car manufacturer in Europe, with slightly over
1.7 million cars sold in Europe alone.
•B
oth electric cars as well as electric bicycles are experiencing a
significant uptrend in interest in the German market, with e-bikes
averaging double the amount of search demand as electric cars.
High prices and a lack of technological infrastructure are preventing
electric cars from being commercially viable on a large scale.
•C
ompared to other engine technologies, hybrid appears to have
the highest potential to become the next engine standard for future
transportation based on German search behaviour.
50Technology •S
hort battery life for mobile phones is declining as a conversation
topic, while TV and video streaming are growing.
•S
earch based interest in privacy and data protection related topics
shows a 15 year all time high with most of that trend being driven by • The German IoT market is growing but is still underdeveloped
current changes of regulation (GDPR / DSGVO). compared to other markets, especially the US, Japan, and the UK.
Less than 10% of German adults owned an IoT device in 2016.
•W
hen comparing UK search trends with those in Germany, we can
see that the topic of data protection generally receives about 60% •O ver the last five years, the German interest in wearables has been
more attention in Germany than in the UK. continuously growing with Apple and Fitbit driving the market,
selling mostly smartwatches and activity trackers.
•G
erman “angst” about privacy violations and breaches of data
protection are mostly related to topics revolving around data •B itcoin is dominating interest in German searches whilst other
and identity theft, violations of personal privacy, infringement cryptocurrencies fall largely short of similar interest.
on sensitive person-related data (e.g. medical or bank records),
breaches of fiscal secrets as well as behaviour of intelligence
agencies.
•M
obile data usage is growing at an exponential rate in Germany,
likely to surpass 1GB average monthly data use in 2018. However,
Germany is still trailing the UK in terms of mobile commerce.
51Appendix
52technology
Our Approach: Framework-Driven Digital Insights
We deploy a host of services, frameworks and techniques. How can we add value for you? Contact us: hello@braingraph.com
Digital marketing
Audience Competitive
effectiveness
segmentation benchmark
analysis
Market opportunity Digital growth Digital traffic and
analysis analysis revenue forecast
Digital UX and Digital trend Digital innovation
performance analysis analysis analysis
53technology
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