CONSUMER AND RETAIL TRENDS 2020 - Emotional Logic
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2020
CONSUMER
AND
RETAIL TRENDS
Post-Covid-19 update
2025
www.emotional-logic.co.uk
Foreword
WELCOME
The first half of the year 2020 has presented
unexpected challenges to life as we know it.
As many sectors of the economy ground to a
halt and millions experienced life in lockdown
we have had to radically rethink how we do
things. Now, as we start to take careful steps
into the outside world again it becomes clear
that a new normal is emerging and both
consumers and retailers will have to adapt to
it. Only 10% of the consumers we have polled
want things to go back to the way things
were so there is major change ahead. Just
how big will these changes be? This report
combines the results of our own survey with
2,000 UK consumers with a sweep of the
Covid-19 studies to show what we can expect
and where brands can find opportunities to
thrive.
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 2
Introduction
A NEW NORMAL
IS EMERGING
Post Covid-19 things may look a little different but there
are still opportunities ahead for brands and retailers. We
can see five themes emerging which will shape future
consumer habits.
Home Health & Considered Trust in Sustainable
Comforts Wellness Consumption Tech Living
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 3
Introduction
1. Home Comforts
As consumers reconnected with their homes their discovered the pleasures of
home cooking and family meals, the big weekly grocery shop has made a
comeback as consumers stock up and many are wearing less formal and more
casual styles (a trend that started before COVID-19). The future will hold an
increasing number of us recreating restaurant and bar experiences at home,
investing in in-home entertainment (be it video on demand or a hot tub) and
setting up better working from home spaces.
2. Health & Wellness
The daily hour of exercise was taken up by many who now like spending time
outdoors, whilst others joined in to virtual fitness classes. One thing is clear
almost half of us want to live healthier lives – sportswear, health food providers,
vegetable and healthy eating products are all likely to benefit going forward. A
fast return to gyms is less likely as consumers are shying away from indoor
spaces and the expense of membership in face of the recession. As more
people are seeking the outdoors and practical as well as safety concerns
reduce appeal of holidays abroad – domestic holidays and days out are likely
to benefit.
3. Sustainable Living
Time for reflection has led the vast majority to say they want to live more in
harmony with the planet, and they are expecting brands to help them – from
the emerging slow fashion movement, natural beauty products, ethical retailers
to sustainable packaging solutions, brands that connect with this underlying
need are likely to win loyal customers. More of us are also planning to shop
locally to support independent retailers.
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 4
Introduction
4. Considered Consumption
Many consumers have revaluated their shopping habits and this along with the
coming recession is likely to change consumption patterns. Blind brand loyalty
will be a thing of the past in most categories. We will see an increasing focus on
discounts and premium brands will have to provide clear advantages (health
benefits, more lasting value, ethical credentials) in order to convince shoppers
to pay more. Affordable treats will still be on the menu – from gourmet foods to
cosmetics. Fashion brands that offer lasting style over fast fashion are more likely
to win.
5. Trust in Tech
Technology has helped people through this crisis and they are unlikely to forget
this. This will lead to an even faster adoption of online shopping for both
groceries and non-food – meaning retailers must integrate channels.
Technology is also a temporary bridge for brands such as leisure attractions and
long haul destinations to keep in touch with audiences in the short term.
Technology solutions to entertain, keep in touch, work from home will all
continue to develop and electronic products whether personal or in the home
are also likely to benefit from this increased goodwill.
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 5
Overview
Trend Page
Home Comforts
Eating in 7
In-home Entertainment 14
Food Shopping 20
Working from Home 27
Health & Wellness
Wellness 31
Considered Consumption
Fashion & Beauty 37
Big Ticket Items 44
Travel 51
Trust in Tech
Technology 57
Sustainable Living
Sustainability 63
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 6
Home Comforts
EATING IN
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 7
Eating in
EATING IN IS THE NEW
EATING OUT
Now:
26%
Have been
cooking
unusual meals
[John Lewis/Waitrose & Partners]
Post-lockdown:
63% of UK consumers approved
30%
Will do more
the Government’s decision to home
close restaurants and bars in cooking
March [GWI]. Being unable to get
hold of their favourite dishes
meant that they now had to bring
them into their own homes – and
this trend is likely to continue into 15%
the future as more consumers can
Will go to
foresee more home cooking than restaurants
going out for meals [Emotional more
Logic], in line with the Importance
of Home trend.
[Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 8
Eating in
EATING IN IS THE NEW
EATING OUT
Now:
BBC Good
Food received
7.8m
Page views in
one day
A third of shoppers spent more time
cooking or baking at home
compared to before the crisis. 95%
Lockdown cooking habits have also Of readers say
looking at
driven an increase in engagement
magazines is
with online food magazines. Food time well
content featured received spent
increasing numbers of visits and
searches for recipes online doubled
during this time [Magnetic]. As more [Magnetic]
consumers devote time to home
cooking there will be a sustained
appetite for this type of content.
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 9
Eating in
RECREATING DRINKING
EXPERIENCES AT HOME
Now: The Importance of Home trend
also applied to drinks – during
lockdown consumers stocked up
on more unusual spirits and
liqueurs to be able to recreate
78% the bar experience from the
comfort of their living rooms. This
Increase in
sales of trend is likely to continue as
liqueurs for recession hits - as in the previous
cocktails recession the same trend
emerged.
175%
Increase in
tequila sales
[John Lewis/Waitrose & Partners]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 10Eating in
FOOD TO GO - A THING OF
THE PAST?
Now:
500m
More meals at
home in
lockdown per
week
[Kantar Worldpanel]
Post-lockdown:
33%
Expect a
reduction in
disposable
income
[PWC]
As the home becomes the office for millions of UK workers,
the impact of this shift will be felt by those coffee shops and
food-to-go operators that target the lunch hour rush [PWC].
Not having to leave the house means less exposure to
purchase occasions and financial worries may see
consumers cut back on take out food even after the end of
lockdown.
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 11Eating in
Future outlook
▪ There will be more home cooking and bar experiences
at home as consumers have enjoyed them, invested in
equipment and want to save money due to financial
pressures in the coming recession
▪ Consumers will reconnect to online magazines as they
look for recipes and inspiration to hone their
cooking/cocktail making skills
▪ Food to go will decrease due to more people working
from home after the end of lockdown and wanting to
cut back
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 12Eating in
Who can benefit from this
▪ Specialist spirit retailers and subscription box brands
should tap into the homemade trend
▪ Brands should consider selling kits that allow consumers
to recreate restaurant and bar experiences at home
▪ Supermarket brands that entice shoppers with recipes
and tutorials and pared back food-to-go sections will
have best chances to succeed
▪ Restaurants and bars should intensify their partnership
with delivery services to give consumers a reason to
return
▪ Establishments that only rely on food to go will have to
diversify - or risk failure
▪ Coffee brands should offer bundles of products to
encourage in-home consumption that will focus on
quality consumers are unable to replicate at home
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 13Home Comforts
IN-HOME
ENTERTAINMENT
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 14In-home Entertainment
THE RISE OF VIRTUAL
ENTERTAINMENT
Now:
28%
Have used
Zoom for the
first time in
lockdown
[Appinio]
84%
Are grateful
for tech that
The lockdown has forced consumers allows people
to be creative and welcome leisure to keep in
touch
into the home. With all contact
between households prohibited, 2020
was the year Zoom calls went [Emotional Logic]
mainstream (beyond the work
domain) and pub quizzes went virtual.
33% of UK consumers had a virtual
drink with friends and 23% took part in 37%
a virtual party [Hearst]. This trend is Have taken
likely to continue as 20% have used part in a
virtual pub
Zoom for the first time during
quiz
lockdown and are planning to keep
using it [Appinio], in line with the
Importance of Home trend.
[John Lewis/Waitrose & Partners]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 15In-home Entertainment
TV WATCHING GETS A
BOOST
Now:
50%
Are watching
TV more often
[GFK]
TV became an aggregator again during
the pandemic. Every week since the start
of lockdown, total TV watching was
consistently over 200 daily minutes on
average [BARB], reversing a downward
trend that reached its lowest point in 2018
564m with 192 minutes [Ofcom].
iPlayer
requests in The BBC news updates saw weekly
April 2020 audiences of over 20m. The lockdown
also led to a record performance for its
iPlayer offering, with a 34% increase in
[BBC] requests in the first three months of 2020,
compared to the same quarter in 2019
[BBC]. Commercial TV also had hits with
lockdown shows such as Isolation Stories,
which attracted almost 3m viewers
[Broadcast Now].
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 16In-home Entertainment
…AND SO DOES SVOD
With cinemas closed and films being Now:
released direct to screen video
streaming players such as Netflix
gained record subscriptions. Other
Netflix
new platforms launching successfully gained
during the lockdown period included
Disney+, which gained 1.6m
4.6m
subscribers
subscribers in the UK in the first month in UK
[Guardian]. Not only broadcast TV but
Netflix also gathered public consensus
around it – Tiger King was hailed as a
global lockdown success, with viewing
figures of 64m worldwide [Netflix]. As
41% of people are planning to spend
20%
more time at home even after Global increase
in use of
lockdown [Emotional Logic] there is streaming
indication there will be more at home media
entertainment - this also fits with the
cocooning trend that already started
[Guardian]
pre Covid [White Hutchinson].
Post-lockdown:
41%
of UK people
will stay at
home more
[Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 17In-home Entertainment
Future outlook
▪ Market saturation and delay in new content being
produced will affect viewership of SVOD in the long run
▪ As the weather improves and restrictions are gradually
lifted TV viewing will suffer but viewers will come
together again around TV news bulletins and cohesive
drama
▪ The trend for in-home entertainment will continue
because consumers are now more familiar with the
technology and will save money by socialising this way
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 18In-home Entertainment
Who can benefit from this
▪ Traditional channels can benefit by offering a talking
point for the nation to converge around – as especially
at these times of national emergency the public is
looking for reputable news sources
▪ Brands should create socially distant events e.g.
watchalongs that draw attention to their products
▪ TV companies should create socially distanced shows
(e.g. drama series) because they will feel relevant and
‘of the moment’ and show creativity
▪ New entrants into the SVOD market can succeed with
price promotions followed by programming that no
other players currently offer to beat competition
▪ Tech platforms that enable people to stay in touch and
share virtual moments together have the best chance
of long term success
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 19Home Comforts
FOOD
SHOPPING
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 20Food Shopping
FOOD HAS BECOME THE
FOCUS OF OUR UNIVERSE
Now:
61%
State their
eating &
drinking
habits have
changed
Since the announcement of lockdown
and the initial shortages in [Emotional Logic]
supermarkets, food has been at the
heart of the national discourse. With
the Importance of Home trend
emerging and more people working
48%
from home the time dedicated to meal Are taking
preparation grew [John Lewis & more time
during meals
Partners/Waitrose], as well as the
collective anxiety around sold out
product categories. 44% ate more and
22% drank more alcohol while in
lockdown [Emotional Logic]. Food was
a constant thought away from meal
times as well, as snacking frequency
58%
increased for 58% of consumers Are snacking
[Emotional Logic]. more
[Hearst]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 21Food Shopping
LOYALTY SUFFERS DURING
LOCKDOWN
Now:
Shortages have caused a shift in brand
loyalty as perceptions of retailers and
brands changed depending on
individual experiences during
69%
Of shoppers
lockdown. The big supermarkets failed to find
outperformed Aldi in terms of growth the brand
for the first time in years [Nielsen], due they wanted
to better social distancing and the
return of the big weekly shop.
[Appinio]
30% of shoppers who were unable to
find their favourite brands in store
visited a different supermarket 41%
[Appinio]. Switch in supermarket Are buying
choice is likely to be temporary - as different food
86% state they will revert to their usual brands vs pre
one [Magnetic] - but food brand lockdown
changes may be permanent.
[Emotional Logic]
Post-lockdown:
38%
Discovered
new brands
they will
continue
buying
[Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 22Food Shopping
THE RETURN OF THE BIG
WEEKLY SHOP
Now:
28%
Increase in
sales of frozen
food
£524m Aided by Government’s regulations,
Additional the big weekly food shop has made a
grocery spend comeback. After a sustained trend of
recorded in smaller, frequent shops, now consumers
April 2020 tend to favour fewer trips – and they
spend more. In April 2020 the average
[Kantar]
number of supermarket trips was 14
compared to 17 pre-lockdown
[Kantar]. Shoppers bought more frozen
Post-lockdown:
food, in particular frozen vegetables
(up 42.5%), meat (up 34.8%) and
savoury food (36.7%) [Kantar]. Sales of
48% freezers have increased by 200% for
Are planning
some retailers [Magnetic] so this trend
to stock up
more in the could be with us for a while, as
future shoppers are planning ahead and
keeping pantries and freezers well-
stocked [Emotional Logic].
[Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 23Food Shopping
WHAT PEOPLE ARE BUYING
NOW
Now:
50%
Increase in
alcohol sales
year on year
[Kantar]
Alcohol was one of the best selling
categories during lockdown with a 50%
increase compared to last year
111% [Kantar]. 22% of shoppers drank more
Increase in alcoholic drinks than before [Emotional
veg boxes Logic] and with bars/pubs closed these
sales were bought for in-home consumption.
Baking goods were an early lockdown
[The Food Foundation]
winner with a 49% boost [Guardian] as
people started experimenting more in
Post-lockdown: the kitchen. In May 2020 sales of crisps
rose by 28% and soft drinks by 25%
[Kantar] as shoppers prepared for bank
holidays in lockdown. Within the
73% already strong frozen category which
Plan to eat
had an overall increase of 28%, frozen
and drink
healthier confectionery saw a 40% growth in
May as the weather warmed up
[Kantar]. During lockdown sales of veg
boxes also went up by 111% [The Food
[FMCG Gurus]
Foundation].
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 24Food Shopping
Future outlook
▪ Shoppers who have switched supermarkets will return
to their usual one
▪ Shoppers will continue buying more cupboard items
and frozen goods to keep in case of any future
lockdown periods and shortages
▪ Financial worries and good experiences with newly
discovered brands will lead consumers to switch to
those brands permanently
▪ Consumers who have indulged more in lockdown will
be more health conscious, further driving the trend for
frozen veg and veg boxes
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 25Food Shopping
Who can benefit from this
▪ Food brands should consider catering for different
price elasticities so consumers can switch up or down
as needed without having to switch
▪ To tap into the Importance of Home trend, retailers
need to become a one-stop shop for all cooking and
food preparation requirements and give consumers
inspiration
▪ Retailers need to be proactive about products that
were in high demand during the lockdown periods
(e.g. frozen foods) and reassure shoppers that stocks
are always replenished
▪ Retailers and brands should also give health advice to
shoppers, nudging them towards healthy options that
will benefit them in the long run
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 26Home Comforts
WORKING FROM
HOME
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 27Working from Home
A SUCCESSFUL EXPERIMENT
Now:
49%
Of UK
employed
worked from
home in
lockdown
[ONS]
Work changed radically in 2020: the 36%
pandemic caused extensive job
Are less
losses worldwide and by the end of stressed
May the UK Government furlough about work
scheme had enrolled 8.4m people
[BBC]. Those who could were
encouraged to work from home and
[Emotional Logic]
almost half of those in employment
did (vs 27% in 2019) [ONS]. The Post-lockdown:
removal of work-related worries led
people to feel less stressed and the
majority can imagine working from 69%
home even after lockdown Can imagine
working entirely
[Emotional Logic]. As a result of the
or partly from
Importance of Home trend and the home post
increasing trust in technology working lockdown
from home will continue into the
future.
[Appinio]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 28Working from Home
Future outlook
▪ Following its successful trial run, working from home will
continue for those in office roles even post-lockdown, as
new routines set in and people seek to avoid
unnecessary travel and shared workspaces
▪ Employees will get increasingly familiar with virtual team
and client meetings thanks to a heightened trust in
technology
▪ Events such as large-scale conferences and symposiums
will move online for the foreseeable future, causing
further losses for the hospitality/travel industry, already hit
hard by the outbreak
▪ 5G technology will help to meet the increased demand
for faster and more reliable connections caused by the
heavier data traffic
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 29Working from Home
Who can benefit from this
▪ Furniture/interior design/homeware brands are best
placed to help to make the home a more work-
friendly environment, yet still comfortable and homely,
to help people separate the two domains
▪ Teleconferencing apps and platforms will grow even
stronger by investing further in platform security, ease
of access and user-friendliness
▪ Internet providers should invest in 5G technology to
meet the increasing data traffic demand
▪ Hospitality brands should offer services such as virtual
hosting/reception to help online business events run
smoothly, to fill the gap left by the move towards
working from home
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 30Health & Wellness
WELLNESS
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 31Wellness
HEALTHY LIVING ON THE
RISE
Now:
496%
Increase in
gym
equipment
sales
[John Lewis/Waitrose & Partners]
As gyms and fitness centres closed
Post-lockdown:
down, lockdown brought physical
exercise into the home, with 31%
exercising more generally [Emotional
Logic] and 44% exercising more in 43%
their living rooms [John Will continue
to exercise
Lewis/Waitrose & Partners].
more post
Consumers invested in gym lockdown
equipment such as yoga mats and
followed online classes. As 44% state
they ate more and 33% ate more
frequently while in lockdown
[Emotional Logic] there is also a 39%
renewed interest in eating healthily
and exercising more even post- Will eat more
healthily after
Covid, as weight gain concerns take
lockdown
hold, in line with the Increased focus
on wellness & health trend.
[Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 32Wellness
IMPORTANCE OF MENTAL
HEALTH
Now:
66%
Felt distant
from family
and friends
The Covid outbreak and the lockdown
59% measures threatened the mental health
Fear things will of millions who were suddenly forced to
never get break contact with people outside their
back to how household. As the initial practical
they were concerns subsided, feelings of anxiety
(41%), isolation (45%) and fear (59%)
started to emerge [Emotional Logic]. This
[Emotional Logic]
led to a re-evaluation of priorities and a
Post-lockdown: greater focus on wellness of the mind, not
just of the body, as people prepare for a
new socially distant future by staying
59% positive [GWI]. The importance of family
Find relationships also grew, with 50% enjoying
maintaining a spending time with family and 39%
positive
planning to spend longer with family and
mindset a top
priority friends in the future [Emotional Logic] – this
is likely to continue due of the trends
towards wellness & health and the
[GWI]
Importance of Home.
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 33Wellness
BOOST TO COMMUNITY
SPIRIT
Now:
The pandemic saw a new community
spirit prevail, as countries found
themselves united again in solidarity. 78%
In the UK a million people signed up Think people
are doing
to volunteer for the NHS and all over more to help
the country charities received others
unprecedented levels of volunteers
[Guardian]. Neighbours rallied
together to help keep the most
vulnerable amongst their local
communities safe as 63% checked on 38%
neighbours who may need help Carried out
[ONS] and 21% joined local initiatives shopping or
other tasks for
to provide support during the crisis
neighbours in
[Deloitte]. As new bonds have been April 2020
formed we expect community spirit to
become embedded in future society
permanently. [ONS]
49%
Appreciate the
local
community
more
[Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 34Wellness
Future outlook
▪ Consumers who have had to abandon the gym will
stay away even after lockdown as financial worries hit
home
▪ Those who have gained weight in lockdown will want
to get active but safety concerns about exercising with
strangers in an indoor environment will persist so the in-
home exercise trend will continue
▪ Some will also choose to exercise outdoors now as it’s
safer compared to the gym
▪ Interest in mental health will continue into the future as
consumers understand the importance and the
benefits of self care and prioritise these over material
possessions
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 35Wellness
Who can benefit from this
▪ Gyms and fitness brands should offer online tutorials
and classes at reduced prices to stem the
cancellations of traditional memberships
▪ Open air fitness/sports centres and parks should offer
organised activities and classes and promote
themselves as the safest choice outside in-home
exercise
▪ Healthy food and supplement brands are most likely to
benefit from the increased focus on health and
wellness
▪ Sportswear brands were experience growth before
lockdown and they will continue to profit from the
wellness trend
▪ Brands should demonstrate they understand the
importance of mental wellbeing and positivity and
communicate this openly to consumers
▪ Brands that emphasise the reviving community spirit
and give back to the community will be most
successful in the post-lockdown future
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 36Considered Consumption
FASHION
& BEAUTY
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 37Fashion & Beauty
SLOW FASHION EMERGES
As consumers spend more time at home Now:
fashion becomes less of a priority for
them with a sharp decline in
clothing/footwear spend (-26% vs 2019)
[Retail Gazette]. Post lockdown the 145%
Decrease in
already beleaguered high street could
demand for
suffer even more as half of shoppers are high street
planning to buy less clothes and shoes brands
[Emotional Logic]. Additionally, 54% of
UK shoppers are concerned about
sustainability in fashion but only 25% [Lovethesales]
think enough is being done about it
[KPMG]. All this could make the Post-lockdown:
traditional model obsolete and some
high fashion brands are already leading
the way – Gucci announced in May 45%
that it would abandon the traditional Of shoppers
fashion calendar and release fewer plan to buy
collections [Harper’s Bazaar] in what is less clothing
post
likely to become the new normal for the lockdown
industry, with the British Fashion Council
and Council of Fashion Designers of
America advocating slower fashion
[Drapers].
50%
Of shoppers
plan to buy
less footwear
post
lockdown
[Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 38Fashion & Beauty
COMFORT OVER FORMAL
Now:
322%
UK increase in
online
demand for
loungewear
During lockdown the type of fashion [Lovethesales]
consumers bought reflected the type
of live they were living and their
everyday needs. As more people
spent time at home the demand for 25%
formalwear or partywear dropped by Decrease in
25% [Fashion United], to be replaced sales of
by comfortable leisurewear and formalwear
sportswear [BBC]. As athleisure was
already a trend before lockdown,
with an increase of 9% globally in 2019
and a total share of 19.9% of the total [Fashion United]
clothing market [GlobalData], this
growth is likely to continue going
forward.
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 39Fashion & Beauty
RESALE WILL CONTINUE TO
GROW
80
Market size in $bn
64
60
44
40 35
21 24
20 9
0
2008 2018 2028
Fast Fashion Resale
[ThredUp]
The fashion resale sector was growing before the
pandemic struck – it was reducing the gap with fast
fashion and was projected to overtake it by 2028
[Marketwatch].
The online clothing rental market was also booming and
was forecast to grow annually by 10% over the next 4
years [ThredUp]. Many of the players in this market are
online-only so lockdown did not affect consumer access
greatly but fears over health and hygiene caused by
Covid-19 may pose a threat to the sector in the short
term [Forbes]. This will however bounce back in the
longer term thanks to sustainability concerns and the
emergence of considered consumption.
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 40Fashion & Beauty
ONLINE BEAUTY SALES
BOOM IN LOCKDOWN
Now:
36%
Increase in
online sales of
beauty
products
[Essential Retail]
Although overall sales of cosmetics were
down due to shop closures, the ‘lipstick
effect’ theory was in full effect online
during lockdown, as nail products saw a 23%
24% sales boost compared to 2019 and Growth in UK
certified organic
online searches for make up increased beauty &
by over 73% [British Beauty Council]. wellbeing
Online sales of mascara grew by 177% market
and lipstick by 142% globally [Fashion
Network]. L’Oreal reported a 50% [The Soil Association]
increase in sales of hair colour [Beauty
Business Journal]. During the 2008 Post-lockdown:
recession the beauty industry proved to
be resilient so despite the initial dip we
can expect it to bounce back in the 65%
want to buy
Covid aftermath [McKinsey & from
Company]. The existing trend towards sustainable
natural beauty products – which has beauty brands
seen its 9th consecutive growth year [The
Soil Association] is also likely to continue
as part of the increasing focus on
[The Soil Association]
wellness and health.
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 41Fashion & Beauty
Future outlook
▪ We had seen the relaxation of dress codes in work or
other formal settings even before lockdown so the
trend for comfortable clothing will continue
▪ High fashion will see its traditional calendar
revolutionised, with fewer annual collections and fewer
– if any - high profile, large scale shows and events
▪ Shoppers will buy less clothes and footwear as they
reduce their discretionary spend
▪ After reassuring shoppers about hygiene and safety of
second hand items Resale and rental market will
continue its growth due to shoppers’ appetite for
sustainability and cost savings
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 42Fashion & Beauty
Who can benefit from this
▪ Loungewear brands should be even more bold and
target different home ‘occasions’ e.g. work, relaxing,
exercise to create diversification for their collections
▪ Fashion brands should read the mood of a nation and
adapt their offer to include athleisure
▪ Fashion brands have the best chance of success if they
move away from seasonality in order to avoid unsold
stock piling up
▪ Retailers should keep their stocks agile and avoid
committing to huge advance orders as shoppers will
cut back on their spending
▪ Cosmetics and beauty products that are affordable
and sustainable will be rewarded by shoppers who are
increasingly interested in sustainability but still want to
treat themselves
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 43Considered Consumption
BIG TICKET ITEMS
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 44Big Ticket Items
CONSIDERED
CONSUMPTION
During lockdown people reassessed their priorities and many
found that shopping didn’t score highly among them. Retail sales
in the UK dropped 20% in April 2020 [Bloomberg], leading to the
collapse of established brands such as Oasis and Warehouse.
After lockdown 28% of consumers are planning to buy less
[Emotional Logic], which means they will consider more when
they do buy. This trend could continue into the future as shoppers
react to consumerism and change their shopping habits, with
footwear (-50%) and clothing (-45%) among the hardest hit
[Emotional Logic].
Post-lockdown:
Change in purchases vs before lockdown
Footwear
43% -50% Clothing
Are less -45% Furniture, carpets, home
interested in -43% furnishings
Household appliances /
buying things
-38% electronics
than they were DIY / Car products
-37%
Stationery / Books / Magazines
-17%
Toiletries / Cosmetics
-10%
Pet supplies
-9%
-8% Gardening products
53% -5% Games / Movies / Music
Have re-
evaluated their -1% Groceries - Alcoholic Drink
shopping habits 25% Groceries - Food
due to
26%
lockdown Household cleaning products
[Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 45Big Ticket Items
LOCKDOWN WINNERS AND
LOSERS
Now:
-13%
Decline in
discretionary
spend Q1 2020
vs the previous
quarter
Discretionary spend fell sharply in the
[Deloitte] first quarter of 2020 [Deloitte]. Certain
categories - such as gardening and
electricals - boomed during lockdown
with increases of 94.4% and 40.2%
respectively [Essential Retail]. Ebay
reported a 490% increase in sales of
hot tubs [Telegraph]. On the other
-89% hand other categories suffered, such
Year on year as jewellery, with a drop of 39% for
decline in UK car rings and 22% for necklaces [Fashion
registrations in Network]. However, automotive was
May 2020 one of the worst hit sectors with an
89% decline [Autocar]. With lower
predicted purchase intention we
[Autocar] could see car buying moving online
and the phasing out of car
dealerships as they are classed
among the non-essential retailers
[Internet Retailing].
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 46Big Ticket Items
VALUE CONSCIOUSNESS
Now:
155%
Increase in
searches for
sewing
machines
[HobbyCraft]
During lockdown people learned to
make do and mend, discovering a
£15bn
Worth of unsold
new passion for homemade and DIY, stock is
both in food and crafts, with sales of estimated to
elastic on the rise [John be held by
Lewis/Waitrose & Partners]. In retailers
addition, value for money will
become more important after [Guardian]
lockdown as shoppers worry about
their finances. In April 68% of UK Post-lockdown:
shoppers paid more attention to
prices vs 59% in March [Kantar] and
49% expect to shop more cost- 27%
consciously [Accenture]. This along
Are planning to
with vast amounts of unsold stock will
spend less
lead to heavy discounting on retailers’ money
part, similarly to what happened in
the aftermath of the 2008’s financial
crisis [Business of Fashion].
[Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 47Big Ticket Items
CLICK & COLLECT RETHINK
Now:
53%
Of UK shoppers
have used Click
& Collect in
2019
[Essential Retail]
Click & Collect was on the rise before the
pandemic, recording an 8.2% increase
compared to the previous year [Essential
50% Retail]. Although the C&C market in the UK
Of UK shoppers was maturing it was forecast to grow to
have tried to £9.8bn in 2023 [GlobalData]. Even in
limit the time lockdown 42% of consumers would have
spent in store
preferred this service for categories such as
groceries and pharmacy if available
[Business Insider]. In order for the expected
growth to happen, after lockdown stores
will have to rethink the model, offering
9% contact-free, speedy options such as car
Have used delivery/drive through or kerbside delivery
Click & Collect [Forbes]. However, some shoppers who
more during have fully converted to online-only might
lockdown now avoid physical stores altogether and
retailers could lose out on those 39.2% of
shoppers who also bought an additional
[Mintel] item when collecting in store [Retail
Gazette].
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 48Big Ticket Items
Future outlook
▪ The retail industry will go through some restructuring as
some players collapsed during lockdown and invariably
more will follow
▪ We will see a move away from seasonality when it
comes to sales and permanent discounts will continue
for some time, as unsold stock needs to get shifted to an
increasingly value-conscious audience
▪ Click & Collect will continue to be used – provided it’s
made safe and kept efficient - especially if cheaper
than delivery. However, forms of purchase collection
outside the store will mean retailers will not be able to
rely on additional spend and will have to take steps to
increase basket value at the time of purchase instead of
deferring it to collection
▪ Discretionary spend will recover in the long term but the
immediate effect will be negative as recession hits
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 49Big Ticket Items
Who can benefit from this
▪ In this future scenario big ticket items that fit with the
Importance of Home and Increased focus on wellness &
health trends, such as electrical appliances, are most
likely to be successful
▪ Retailers should become highly flexible, with agile stock
and workforce to be able to respond to changes in the
retail environment quickly
▪ Smaller retail spaces and a bigger online presence are
a long-term solution that will see brands through the
post-lockdown recession
▪ Brands should invest more in virtual, high-tech
experiences for premium products as the increased trust
in technology and Importance of Home trends will
mean high value items will be purchased online more
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 50Considered Consumption
TRAVEL
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 51Travel
LONG HAUL GOES VIRTUAL
Now:
67%
Look forward
to being able
to travel the
world again
Long-haul travel seemed a thing of
the past, as virtual/remote tourism [Emotional Logic]
helped people to experience
destinations far afield. This period of Post-lockdown:
uncertainty has caused job losses in
the airline industry, with companies
like Easyjet planning to cut up to 30% 37%
Are thinking of
of its workforce [BBC], and high
booking a
proportion of furloughed workers in holiday in UK in
the hospitality sector (87.3%). the next 6
Consumers would like to go back to months
travelling but initially tourism is likely to
be local as 90% are planning a UK
[BVA BDRC)
holiday [CabinBookers], 43% say they
want to explore their local area more
and 47% will take fewer holidays 47%
abroad in the future [Emotional
Logic]. Concerns over enforceable Will take less
holidays abroad
quarantine periods will also deter in the future
overseas travel in the short term as on
average consumers cannot envision
going on holiday abroad until at least
early 2021 [BVA BDRC]. [Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 52Travel
TRAVELLERS WANT MORE
PROTECTION
Security when travelling has become even more important
now – both from a safety point of view and also financially.
As flights and holidays were cancelled following the
outbreak and many lost out on refunds the demand is
strong for consumer protection, with 54% demanding free
cancellations and 48% looking for transferable bookings
[BVA BDRC].
Essential requirements for a holiday post lockdown
70% 58%
60% 54%
48% 47%
50% 39% 36% 36%
40%
30% 24%
19% 16% 15%
20% 14%
10%
0%
[BVA BDRC]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 53Travel
OUTDOORS WILL BE FIRST
TO RECOVER
Post-lockdown:
38%
Want to do
more outdoor
activities post
lockdown
[Emotional Logic]
Over a third of people are planning to 52%
take part in more outdoor activities Would consider
after lockdown [Emotional Logic] - this visiting a country
shows that the ‘daily exercise’ that park/scenic area
was imposed at the beginning of in the next 3
lockdown was enjoyed and formed a months
new habit. As the Government relaxes
lockdown rules and allows limited
interaction in outdoor spaces these vs
will be the first types of destinations
that will attract visitors in a post-Covid
world, as nature is seen to have a 8%
calming effect in a time of anxiety Would consider
visiting a
[BBC], meeting consumers’ desire to
museum/ gallery
focus on wellness & health. in the next 3
months
[BVA BDRC)
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 54Travel
Future outlook
▪ The travel industry will recover in the long term, but in
the short term travelling will become even more of a
luxury and long haul destinations will be explored
virtually thanks to the increased trust in technology
▪ There will be some consolidation in the industry as some
companies fail and reduced choice ensues so
repercussions will be felt within the next 5 years as the
market stabilises itself
▪ Outdoors attractions and destinations will be the first to
recover as they can enforce social distancing and can
count on people’s goodwill
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 55Travel
Who can benefit from this
▪ Insurance companies that put customers first and
make their policies about Covid cancellations clear
are the best placed for success
▪ Travel companies (incl. airlines) should strive to offer a
safe experience to those who choose to forgo the
Importance of Home focus
▪ Flexible airlines and travel companies should openly
show they are helping consumers with flexible terms
and refunds
▪ UK outdoor destinations should step in to fill the void
left by lack of overseas travel by leveraging the
Increased focus on wellness trend, especially
organisations such as National Trust/English
Heritage/Woodland Trust which have outdoor
properties
▪ Offering virtual exhibitions at reduced rates and
moving catalogues online using state-of-the-art
technology will be a winning long term solution for
indoor attractions
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 56Technology
TECHNOLOGY
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 57Technology
ONLINE SHOPPING IS
GROWING
Now:
30.7%
Of all sales
were online in
April 2020
[ONS]
The pandemic has accelerated
processes that were already under
way, leading to a higher integration of 45%
technology within retail. Proportion of Are buying
online sales out of the total retail sales online more
set a new record in April 2020, with a than pre-
15.8% increase in spend on the lockdown
previous month [ONS]. 34% of
consumers now feel more comfortable
shopping online, thanks to an
increased trust in technology when it
comes to purchases and 39% have 34%
discovered new online retailers they will Now trust
continue to buy from [Emotional Logic] technology
so the increased proportion of online more than
shopping is likely to continue, especially pre-lockdown
for categories such as groceries,
predicted to grow by 33% in 2020
[Mintel]. [Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 58Technology
TOWARDS A CASHLESS
SOCIETY
Now:
62%
Fall in ATM UK
transactions at
the start of
lockdown
[Financial Times]
Post-lockdown:
76%
Say the crisis
will affect
their use of
cash in next 6
months
[YouGov]
In a bid to minimise all contact with potential virus-transmitting
surfaces, cash has also fallen out of favour with shoppers at a
faster rate than ever before. The limit for contactless transactions
was raised during lockdown and supermarkets everywhere
favoured card payments over cash, leading shoppers to
consider phasing out cash sooner.
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 59Technology
SAFER AND TECH DRIVEN
STORES
In the immediate post-Covid world
physical interaction with products is
reduced or outlawed, posing
challenges for bricks and mortar stores.
Countries that left lockdown prior to
the UK showed shoppers’ willingness to
return to bricks and mortar stores they
have a connection with - so we expect
the same to happen in the UK. As UK
retailers are preparing to welcome
back shoppers they are considering
alternative methods or technologies to
offer the same experience and safely –
such as virtual fitting rooms, virtual
queues and automatic doors at the
entrance [Guardian].
Measures that would encourage shop visits post lockdown
60% 57%
53%
50% 43% 41%
40% 34%
31% 30%
30% 24%
20%
10%
0%
Social Access to hand Staff enforcing Pre-ordering No touching Only 1 shopper Face masks for Face masks for
distancing sanitiser social online products/trying at a time staff shoppers
marks distancing on clothes
[Appinio]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 60Technology
Future outlook
▪ Technology in retail is here to stay – an increasing
number of consumers will adopt online shopping
▪ Contactless technology will continue to spread and be
encouraged while cash will become less popular
▪ Experience from other countries which exited lockdown
earlier indicate that shoppers will return to physical stores
they have a personal connection with
▪ As interaction with products in-store will not be permitted
for a long time retailers will increasingly use virtual reality
and AI technology to improve shopper experience
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 61Technology
Who can benefit from this
▪ Retailers with an integrated online and offline
presence to absorb the impact of closures are most
likely to succeed
▪ Physical retailers should focus on making shoppers feel
welcome, safe and relaxed while in store by
respecting social distancing and providing sanitising
stations
▪ Payment apps/digital wallets should target smaller,
local players that were operating cash-only before the
crisis and which received goodwill during lockdown
▪ Providers of AI and virtual reality platforms should
collaborate with physical stores as consumers become
more trusting and accepting of technology
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 62Sustainable Living
SUSTAINABILITY
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 63Sustainability
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL MAIN
CONCERN
Now:
50%
Have been
making a
conscious effort
not to waste
food
[John Lewis/Waitrose & Partners]
The imposed lockdown saw the
price of petrol fall to its lowest levels Post-lockdown:
yet and pollution decreased, as
nature claimed back for itself 76%
public spaces in cities worldwide. see it as starting
As a result of this 55% have become point for us to
more environmentally conscious live more in
[FMCG Gurus]. Single use (i.e. cups, harmony with
gloves, bags, food containers) the planet
made a momentary comeback
due to hygiene/health concerns
[Ethical Consumer] but this is only
going to be a short term recurrence
as and when lockdown hits. 30%
Households have also learned to Will waste less
waste less food during this time and food even after
will extend this behaviour to the lockdown
post lockdown period [Emotional
Logic], in line with the Underlying
concerns about sustainability trend. [Emotional Logic]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 64Sustainability
LOCAL IS NO LONGER
NICHE
Now:
49%
Appreciate the
local
community
more
[Emotional Logic]
The lockdown has brought a
30% newfound appreciation of local
communities, including independent
Are supporting retailers and restaurants. Many
local businesses
more
offered ‘Pay it forward’ schemes
aiming to delay expenditure thus
helping them stay in business [Intu].
The full impact of lockdown on
[John Lewis/Waitrose & Partners]
closures will only be seen as high
streets and shopping centres
Post-lockdown:
nationwide start to reopen but
support to local retailers is likely to
continue, as even post lockdown 21%
46% want to cut out unnecessary travel
Will continue and 37% are vowing to walk more
shopping in [Emotional Logic].
local stores
[Accenture]
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 65Sustainability
RESPONSIBLE BRANDS WIN
[Evening Standard] Now:
[Guardian]
Good PR went a long way during the
Covid outbreak - several high-profile 47%
Expect
companies such as Jaguar Land Rover companies to
shifted production to manufacturing of communicate
Personal Protective Equipment and with employees
others such as Brewdog started openly during
crisis
producing hand sanitisers to help with
the antivirus effort. Some brands made
the news because they made a positive
difference to society and avoided
unnecessary risk, whereas others such as
Asos made headlines with the unethical
treatment of their employees. Others
such as Sports Direct tried to extract
79%
Expect brands
more profit from customers facing to show social
financial difficulties, leading to calls for commitment
boycott [Ethical Consumer]. As online during crisis
conversations around ethical/
sustainable/local shopping on social
media increased 362% in March 2020 vs [Appinio]
Dec 2019 [Brandwatch], brands that
show a blatant disregard for this could
be penalised by shoppers [PWC].
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 66Sustainability
Future outlook
▪ In the days before lockdown many cafes stopped
accepting customers’ reusable cups for hygienic
reasons. Post lockdown this is likely to still be the case but
will recover in the long run as food retailers take
measures to prevent the spread
▪ Having seen first hand that things can be improved from
an environmental point of view will give new momentum
to shoppers to act more sustainably
▪ Consumers will support those local businesses that have
survived as they are perceived to be enriching the
community and need more help than global brands
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 67Sustainability
Who can benefit from this
▪ Convenient and hygienic packaging solutions that are
also sustainable are likely to be the long term winners
▪ Brands that put an emphasis on sustainability and
ethical behaviour, as well as employee welfare, are
most likely to be rewarded by responsible shoppers
▪ Large brands should show an interest in/giving back to
the local community they are in to demonstrate it’s
not all about profit
▪ Independent retailers within mixed
residential/commercial estates will benefit as they are
the first port of call for consumers who are aiming to
shop more locally and sustainably
▪ Large shopping schemes that have lost tenants should
consider leasing vacant units out to independent
businesses, benefiting from the goodwill towards them
www.emotional-logic.co.uk 68To find out more contact us:
team@emotional-logic.co.uk
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