Committee Perspectives - 2022 Outlook & Investment Themes Deck Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee
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Committee Perspectives 2022 Outlook & Investment Themes Deck Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee December 2021 © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Outline 1. Keys to 2022 2. Big Picture Themes 3. Economic & Policy Considerations 4. Stock & Fixed Income Themes 5. Portfolio Positioning 6. Committee Targets © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Keys to 2022 © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Keys to 2022
Big Picture Themes
There are several developments that investors need to watch carefully in 2022 that could lead to a rise in market volatility. First, Federal Reserve policy is evolving
(slide 6). The Fed is mindful of rising inflationary pressures, and as a result, has already begun to slow the pace of its bond-buying program. Along with an
increasingly tight labor market, these trends could persuade the Fed to start raising interest rates in 2022 (slide 13). However, it is important to remember that
monetary policy is likely to remain exceedingly accommodative for some time. Reopening momentum across the globe could continue to see fits and starts due to
ongoing pandemic effects (slide 7). Given the evolution of domestic monetary policy, mid-term elections, and the persistence of the pandemic, we may experience
somewhat higher volatility (slide 8).
Economic and Policy Considerations
Economic prospects appear fairly strong as we approach 2022 (slide 10). In our view, consumer and corporate balance sheets are in a solid position thus likely
able to support above-trend growth as supply allows. According to the Federal Reserve, consumers enter the new year with relatively low debt to income levels. A
high savings rate, strong home values, and a buoyant stock market should also offer positive implications for consumer spending prospects (slide 11). Inflation,
however, poses a significant challenge to growth prospects (slide 12). Higher prices have been sapping consumer purchasing power, and further gains could risk
an over-tightening of financial conditions from the Federal Reserve (slide 13).
Stock and Fixed Income Themes
In our view, stocks will be starting the new year with high valuations compared to history, limiting the extent of their upside potential (slide 15). Despite the
potential for new COVID variants (and a return to lockdowns and mandates), we believe the more cyclical areas of the economy could provide attractive
risk/reward opportunities in 2022. In addition to our cyclical bias for 2022, we believe dividend-paying companies could act as a potential inflation hedge, an
attractive equity-income opportunity, and a defensive equity strategy should volatility spike higher (slide 16). Overall, we remain bullish on stocks despite
expectations for more modest returns in 2022, thus cautioning equity investors to temper expectations. If earnings for 2022 come in as expected, it would again
mark another record high for the Index as current expectations call for +9% y/y earnings growth (slide 17).
Portfolio Positioning
While we believe the return prospects for bonds are less favorable than equities, bonds can provide diversification and protect against downside volatility should
equity markets come under pressure (slide 21). For that reason, maintaining some exposure to fixed-income investments remains a prudent strategy for many
investors. We believe investors should review their financial plans carefully, ensure proper diversification based on risk, and set realistic return expectations given
that market/economic trends could shift from "extraordinary" toward "ordinary" during the year.
4Big Picture Themes © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
A Year of Transition
The last two years have marked a period of unusual developments and market/economic responses. Expect
the macro environment to downshift toward more regular patterns in 2022.
Developed Market Central Bank Security Holdings
U.S. Federal Reserve
$25
European Central Bank (ECB)
Bank of Japan $20
Bank of England
Tillions of USD
$15
$10
$5
$-
$10,000 Federal Researve Balance Sheet 50% Developed Market Central Bank Bond Purchases
$9,000 45% 12 Month rolling flow
U.S. Federal Reserve $8
$8,000 Fed Assets Owned (RHS) 40% European Central Bank (ECB)
Billons of USD
$7,000 as a percentage of the US Agg 35% Bank of Japan
Billions of USD
Bank of England $6
$6,000 Fed Balance Sheet (LHS) 30%
Bank of Canada
$5,000 Total Assets 25% $4
$4,000 20%
$3,000 15% $2
$2,000 10%
$-
$1,000 5%
$- 0% $(2)
Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, U.S. Congressional Budget Office,
6
American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc. Data as of 11/30/2021.Pandemic Effects Fade
Increased global vaccination rates could promote growth, more robust economic activity, and help
monetary/fiscal policies normalize over time.
Vaccinations Around the World
90
80
70
Doses per 100 People
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
12/8/2021 9/30/2021 6/30/2021 3/31/2021
Sources: Bloomberg, Johns Hopkins University, American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc.
7
Data as of 12/08/2021.Markets Look Past Near-term Issues
Ongoing U.S./China tensions could simmer in the background, while the U.S. mid-term elections create a
battleground for control of Congress. However, investors are likely to look past the drama given growth
trends.
Vix History Midterm Uncertainty
Capital
42 Attack
S&P 500 Median 30 Day Volatility (in percent)
Reddit
Raiders 18
Crypto Omicron
37
Bond Yield Crash Variant
16
Increase Fed
32 Evergrande
Taper
Crisis
Plans 14
Delta
27 Variant
12
22
10
17
8
12 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Midterm Years Non-Midterm Years
Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones Indices, American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc.
8
Non-Midterm Years includes presidential election years. Data as of 12/14/2021.Economic & Policy Considerations © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
The U.S. and Europe Continue to Grow Above Trend
The U.S. and Europe should continue to lead the world back to normal. But economic growth could
accelerate in other parts of the world, which could help broaden the global economic expansion.
Ameriprise U.S. Real GDP Outlook IMF Global Economic Projections Difference from
July 2021
Actuals Projections projections
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2021 2022
World 3.8 3.6 2.8 -3.1 5.9 4.9 -0.1 0.0
United States 2.2 2.9 2.2 -3.4 6.0 5.2 -1.0 0.3
Euro Region 2.4 1.9 1.3 -6.3 5.0 4.3 0.4 0.0
Japan 1.9 0.3 0.7 -4.6 2.4 3.2 -0.4 0.2
Developing Asia 6.6 6.4 5.5 -0.8 7.2 6.3 -0.3 -0.1
China 6.8 6.6 6.1 2.3 8.0 5.6 -0.1 -0.1
India 7.2 6.8 4.2 -7.3 9.5 8.5 0.0 0.0
Russia 1.6 2.3 1.3 -3.0 4.7 2.9 0.3 -0.2
Brazil 1.1 1.3 1.1 -4.1 5.2 1.5 -0.1 -0.4
Mexico 2.1 2.1 -0.1 -8.3 6.2 4.0 -0.1 -0.2
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2021
Sources: Commerce Department, American Enterprise Investment Services Inc., International Monetary Fund
10
GDP forecasts via American Enterprise Investment Services Inc. Data as of 12/14/2021.Consumers Enter 2022 in Strong Financial Condition
In our view, consumers could shift their focus from goods to services in 2022. Excess savings, an improving
labor market, and pent-up demand should help the U.S. economy grow above its longer-term potential.
American
$25,000 US Personal Income SA Rescue Plan
U.S. Unemployment Rates 25
U.S. Unemployed (U-3)
$23,000 Consolidated 20
Billions of USD
Appropriations U.S. Unemployed (U-6)
CARES 15
$21,000 Act
Act
$19,000 10
$17,000 5
US Personal Income
Linear (US Personal Income) 0
$15,000
US Personal Savings SA US Retail Sales
$8,500 US Personal Savings American $700
CARES
Billions of USD
Rescue Plan
Billions of USD
$6,500 Linear (US Personal Act
Consolidated $600
$4,500 Savings) Appropriations
Act $500
$2,500
$500 $400 US Personal Savings
Linear (US Personal Savings)
$300
Sources: Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Bureau of Statistics, American Enterprise Investment
11
Services, Inc. Data as of 11/30/2021.Global Supply Chain Pressures
As bottlenecks clear, supply and demand should find a more balanced level as the year wears on. Easing
base effects and increased supply/demand equilibrium should also help reduce price pressures in 2022.
However, trends in wage inflation and ongoing pandemic policies (ex. COVID zero in China) are risks to a
more normal supply/inflation environment.
U.S. Auto Inventory on Dealer lots Producer Price Index
Y/Y Growth in Inflation
15 1
1400
1200 10 0.8
Available to Sell
Number of Cars
1000
5 0.6
800
600 0 0.4
400
-5 0.2
200
0 -10 0
Employment Cost of U.S. Civilian Workers Consumer Price Index 8 1
4.5 1
Y/Y Growth in Inflation
4.0 6 0.8
3.5 0.8
Y/Y Change
4
3.0 0.6
2.5 0.6
2
2.0 0.4 0.4
1.5 0
1.0 0.2 0.2
0.5 -2
0.0 0 -4 0
Sources: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc.
12
Data as of 11/30/2021.Monetary Policies Could Become Less Accommodative
The Federal Reserve is "pot committed" and unlikely to materially surprise investors. However, the
market may face increased challenges as accommodation is removed in 2022. With that said,
global monetary policy should help support above-trend growth next year.
Evolution of Fed Policy Intervention
Pause to Watch
Taper Potential Rate Hikes
Taper Impact
$100 2.0%
Fed Funds Rate - Upper Bound
$90
Monthly Fed Purchases
$80
1.5%
$70
$60
( Billions)
$50 1.0%
$40
$30
0.5%
$20
$10
$- 0.0%
Fed Purchases Fed Funds - Upper Bound
Sources: Bloomberg, FOMC, American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc (“AEIS”). Estimates are reflective of AEIS viewpoints 12/13/2021
13
and are subject to change at anytime.Stock & Fixed Income Themes © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Profit Growth and Valuations are Dynamics to Watch
Stock returns in the U.S. could see high single-digit returns in 2022, with areas outside the U.S. offering
opportunities as pandemic pressures improve. But global stock prices already reflect a favorable backdrop.
S&P 500 PE RATIO S&P 500 - Net Margin
35
12.5
12.2
30
12.0
25 11.5
20 11.0
10.5
15
10.0
10
9.5
5
9.0
PE_RATIO Average PE Ratio
+1 Standard Deviation -1 Standard Deviation
Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones Indices, American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc.
15
Data as of 11/30/2021.Stay Long Cyclicals, but Dividend Payers May Add Value In 2022
In our view, cyclical stocks offer continued opportunity as more of the world reopens. However, dividend-
paying stocks offer downside protection, a hedge against inflation, and a yield substitute to bonds.
Index Cyclicality Levels (Excluding Tech) Treasuries Yield vs S&P 500 Dividends
70% 4.0%
59%
59%
3.5%
55%
60%
53% S&P 500 Dividend
Aristocrat Yield 3.0%
50%
Percentage of Index
2.5%
37%
36%
40%
34%
S&P 500
31%
2.0%
29%
Dividend Yield
27%
25%
30%
22%
1.5%
14%
20% 1.0%
10 Year
10%
9%
Treasury Yield 0.5%
10%
0.0%
0%
S&P 500 S&P 600 MSCI EM MSCI World xUS MSCI Europe
Cyclical xTech Non-Cyclical Tech
Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones Indices, American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc.
16
Data as of 11/30/2021.Stock Selection & Disruptive Distribution
Stock valuations across major U.S. averages leave little room for disappointment, particularly if 2022
earnings growth comes in less than forecast. As stock returns normalize, stock selection could play a larger
role in helping mitigate risks. On-shoring and modifications to "just-in-time“ manufacturing offer opportunities
in companies that can adjust quickly to a dynamic environment.
S&P Earnings Earnings by Sector
108.5
250 222.7 120
98.9
92.7
205.5
88.7
100
74.5
72.9
68.6
68.5
200 80
163.1
51.6
48.3
60
140.5
44.0
43.2
40.0
39.9
38.2
36.7
36.4
35.1
34.6
33.3
32.3
31.6
150
31.4
30.1
30.0
29.2
24.7
40
20.7
18.5
17.5
17.4
16.6
16.3
16.1
15.7
13.0
12.2
8.8
8.9
20
100
0
-2.2
-20
50
Technology
Utilities
Industrials
Financials
Energy
Communication
Health Care
Materials
Discretionary
Consumer
Consumer
Staples
Services
0
S&P 500
2019 2020 2021 (Est) 2022 (Est) 2019 2020 2021 (Est) 2022 (Est)
Sources: Bloomberg, American Enterprise Investment Services Inc.
17
Sector earnings figures do not sum to S&P earnings due to index weighting methodology. Data as of 12/10/2021.Beyond Fed Purchases and Rate Policy
Though the Fed is likely to become less accommodative in 2022, we believe massive liquidity extends
through the year in the form of repurchase market support, M2 money supply expansion, and elevated
personal savings. Also, we anticipate G7 central bank balance sheets to expand rather than contract,
marking a semi-permanent imprint on global bond markets.
Fed Reverse Repurchase Agreements U.S. M2 Money Supply
$2,000
Ongoing $22
$1,800
$120 billion per
$1,600 month bond $21
$1,400
purchases $20
$3.6T
Trillions of USD
Billions of USD
$2.7 trillion $19
$1,200 above
2Q 2020 trend $18
$1,000 Emergency
Bond $17
$800
Purchases $16
$600 Pre-Pandemic
10-Year $15
$400
Trend Line
$14
$200
$13
$-
$12
Repurchase Aggrements
Sources: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, American Enterprise Investment Services Inc.
M2 money supply includes M1 (Cash and checking); plus, CDs, savings, and retail money markets. 18
Data as of 10/31/2021.2022 May be the Year for Floating-Rate Bonds
With the Fed removing asset purchases and looking ahead to potential rate hikes, next year may be the year
of the floater – both for investment-grade bonds and senior bank loan funds.
U.S. Treasury Curve
1.4
11/30/2021
1.2 9/30/2021
12/31/2020
1.0
Latest
Yield (%)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.25 1 2 3 5
Maturity (years)
Sources: Bloomberg, American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc. Data as of 12/13/2021. 19Portfolio Positioning © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mitigate Unwanted Risks and Diversify
We believe the easy gains off the pandemic bottom have been made. Although accommodative financial
conditions support a favorable outlook, investors should stick with the basics of sound portfolio
management.
Portfolio Values for Different Asset Mixes Time in the Market Beats Market Timing
$13,000 Initial Value = $10,000 on December 31, 2020 12.0%
100% Stocks
Average Annual Total Returns (%)
$12,500 60% Stocks 10.0% 10.6%
40% Bonds
$12,000 100% Bonds
9.1%
Other Stock / 8.0%
$11,500 Bond Mixes in 8.0%
10% increments
$11,000 6.0%
6.2%
5.5%
$10,500
4.0%
$10,000
2.0%
$9,500
$9,000 0.0%
Buy and Missing Missing Missing Missing
hold strategy 5 best days 10 best days 20 best days 25 best days
S&P 500 Index (1/1/1990 to 12/08/2021)
Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones Indices, American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc.
21
Data as of 12/08/2021.Committee Targets © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
S&P 500 Price Chart
Our market outlook for 2022 anticipates a continuation of the uptrend in U.S. equities, yet with the pace of gains
moderating toward their long-term historical average. Another year of strong economic growth, accompanied by expected
solid gains in corporate earnings, should allow stocks to extend the cyclical bull market that began in March 2020.
S&P 500 Price History vs. Year-End Target
Current S&P 500 Price: 4567 5500
Committee Year-end S&P 500 Targets: 5000
Base Case: 4950
Favorable Case: 5300 4500
Adverse Case: 4300
Index Value
4000
IRG Year-End
Target: $4950
3500
3000
2500
2000
S&P 500 S&P 500 10-Year Trend Line Committee Base Case Estimate Committee Favorable Case Estimate Committee Adverse Case Estimate
1500
Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones Indices, American Enterprise Investment Services Inc.
23
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Data as of 11/30/2021.S&P 500 Earnings Chart
There remains significant pent-up demand throughout the economy, hindered by supply-chain bottlenecks and the
ongoing effects of the pandemic. But these headwinds should slowly dissipate throughout the year, allowing corporate
revenue growth to remain strong. At the same time, due to increased pricing power, corporations have been able to
maintain their profit margins. Consequently, we believe earnings could grow by roughly 8% to 10% in 2022.
S&P 500 Earnings vs. Year-End Target
IRG Year-end Target: 225
Committee Year-end S&P 500 Earnings Targets: 230
Base Case: 225
Favorable Case: 230
Adverse Case: 215 210
190
170
150
130
110
S&P 500 Earnings Committee Base Case Estimate Committee Favorable Case Estimate Committee Adverse Case Estimate
90
Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones Indices, American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc. Data as of 11/30/2021. 24S&P 500 Earnings Expectations
Consensus estimates as compiled by FactSet, currently show S&P 500 earnings per share as expected to grow from
$205.46 for 2020 to $222.71 in 2021. The majority of the year-over-year profit improvement (85%) is expected to come
from Cyclical sectors.
S&P 500 Earnings
2022
S&P 500
230 Earnings
$222.71
225
220
2021
215 S&P 500
Earnings
210 $205.460
205
200
Services
Technology
Estate
Utilities
Industrials
Energy
Materials
Discretionary
Financials
Consumer
Health
Comms
Real
Care
Consumer
Staples
Cyclical Non-Cyclical
Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones Indices, American Enterprise Investment Services Inc. Data as of 12/10/2021. 25S&P 500 PE Chart
In our view, stocks begin 2022 with high valuations compared to history, and could limit the extent of their
upside potential.
S&P 500 PE RATIO vs. Year-End Target
35
Committee Year-end S&P 500 P/E Targets:
Base Case: 22x
Favorable Case: 23x
Adverse Case: 20x 30
Price to Earnings
25
20
IRG Year-end
Target: 22
15
S&P 500 PE Ratio 10-Yr Average PE Ratio Committee Base Case Estimate Committee Favorable Case Estimate Committee Adverse Case Estimate
10
Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones Indices, American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc. Data as of 11/30/2021. 26Appendix © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.
Asset Class Year-to-Date Returns
Sources: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones Indices, American Enterprise Investment Services, Inc.
28
Data as of 11/30/2021. For asset class representative indices, see slide 33.Ameriprise Global Asset Allocation Committee Led by top Ameriprise strategists, this Committee is a team of experienced investment professionals focused on delivering asset allocation guidance and actionable investment strategies. © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 29
Report authored by American Enterprise Investment Services Inc. (“AEIS”) and distributed by
Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC (“AFS”) to financial advisors and clients of Ameriprise. Both
AEIS and AFS are affiliates and subsidiaries of Ameriprise Financial, Inc. Both are member firms
registered with FINRA and are subject to the objectivity safeguards and disclosure requirements
relating to research analysts and the publication and distribution of research reports.
Each of AEIS and AFS have implemented policies and procedures reasonably designed to
ensure that its employees involved in the preparation, content and distribution of research reports,
including dually registered employees, do not influence the objectivity or timing of the publication
of research report content. All research policies, coverage decisions, compensation, hiring and
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operationally independent of AFS.
30Disclosures The views expressed in this material are the views of the research analysts authoring the publication and are subject to chan ge without notice at any time based upon market and other factors. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no repre sentation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. A part of a research analyst’s compensation may be based upon overall firm revenue and profitability, of which investment ban king, sales and trading, and principal trading are components. No part of a research analyst’s compensation is based on a specific investment banking transaction, nor is it based on sales, tr ading, or principal trading. A research analyst may have visited the material operations of one or more of the subject companies mentioned in this research report. No payment was received for th e related travel costs. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not account for individual investor circumstances. Inv estment decisions should always be made based on an investor's specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Global Asset Allocation Committee forecasting process regard ing the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Pr o duct Risk Disclosure There are risks associated with fi x ed-income investments, including credit risk, interest rate risk, and prepayment and extension risk. In general, bond prices rise when interest rate s fall and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer term securities. No n-Investment grade securities, commonly known as "high-yield" or "junk" bonds, are historically subject to greater risk of default, including the l oss of principal and interest, than higher-rated bonds, which may result in greater price volatility than experienced with a higher -rated issue. Gr o wth securities, at times, may not perform as well as value securities or the stock market in general and may be out of favor with investors. Va l ue securities may be unprofitable if the market fails to recognize their intrinsic worth or the portfolio manager misgauged that worth. Investments in sma ll- and mid-capitalization companies involve greater risks and volatility than investments in larger, more established companies. I nternational investing involves increased risk and volatility due to political and economic instability, currency fluctuations, and differences in financial reporting and accounting standards and oversight. Risks are enhanced for emerging market issuers. Al ternative investments cover a broad range of strategies and structures designed to be low or non-correlated to traditional equity and fixed-income markets with a long-term expectation of illiquidity. Alternative investments involve substantial risks and are more volatile than traditional investments, making the m more suitable for investors with an above-average tolerance for risk. © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 31
Asset Class Representative Indices
Alternatives: represented by the Wilshire Liquid Alts index Long/Short Equity: represented by the Credit Suisse Long/Short Equity Index
Cash: represented by the FTSE Treasury Bill 3M index Managed Futures: represented by the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index
Com m unication Services: represented by the S&P 500 Communication Services index Materials: represented by the S&P 500 Materials index
Consum er Discretionary: represented by the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary index Multi Strategy: Is a mix of alternative strategies represented by the Credit Suisse Multi-
Strategy Index
Consum er Staples: represented by the S&P 500 Consumer Staples index
Real Estate: represented by the S&P 500 Real Estate index
Convertible Arbitrage: represented by the Credit Suisse Convertible Arbitrage Index
U.S. Large Grow th: represented by the Russell 1000 Grow th index
Developed Foreign Equity: represented by the MSCI EAFE index (net)
U.S. Large Value: represented by the Russell 1000 Value index
Developed Foreign Bonds : represented by the Bloomberg Global Treasury Ex US index
U.S. Mid Grow th: represented by the Russell Midcap Grow th index
Em erging Foreign Equity: represented by the MSCI Emerging Markets index (net)
U.S. Mid Value: represented by the Russell Midcap Value index
Em erging Foreign Bonds : represented by the JPM EMBI Global index
U.S. Sm all Grow th: represented by the Russell 2000 Grow th index
Energy: represented by the S&P 500 Energy index
U.S. Sm all Value: represented by the Russell 2000 Value index
Equity Market Neutral: represented by the Credit Suisse Equity Market Neutral Index
U.S. Corp High Yield: represented by the Bloomberg US Corp High Yield index
Event Driven: represented by the Credit Suisse Event Driven Index
U.S. Corp Investm ent Grade : represented by the Bloomberg US Corp IG index
Financials: represented by the S&P 500 Financials index
U.S. Equity: represented by the Russell 3000 index
Fixed Incom e Arbitrage: represented by the Credit Suisse Fixed Income Arbitrage Index
U.S. Governm ent: represented by the Bloomberg US Government index
Fixed Incom e: represented by the Bloomberg US Universal index
U.S. Securitized: represented by the Bloomberg US Securitized index
Foreign Equity: represented by the MSCI ACWI Ex USA index (net)
Utilities: represented by the S&P 500 Utilities index
Global Macro: represented by the Credit Suisse Global Macro Index
Health Care: represented by the S&P 500 Health Care index
Industrials: represented by the S&P 500 Industrials index
Info Tech: represented by the S&P 500 Info Tech index
Bloomberg Barclays indices were rebranded as “Bloomberg” in August 2021.
© 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 32Index Definitions
DEFINITIONS
Unless otherwise noted the following indices were used throughout this document.
I ndex Definitions:
An index is a statistical composite that is not managed. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Definitions of individual indices mentioned in this report are available on our website at ameriprise.com/legal/disclosures/ in the Additional Ameriprise research disclosures
section, or through your Ameriprise financial advisor.
General:
Copper is the world’s third most widely used metal, after iron and aluminum, and is primarily used in highly cyclical industries. It is therefore commonly used as a leading
indicator for economic activity.
Th e Effective Fed Funds Rate is the daily volume-weighted median value of overnight rates conducted by brokers. Prior to 2016, the rate was calculated by the New York Fed
as the volume-weighted mean.
Gold spot price is quoted in US dollars per troy ounce. Gold is commonly used as a safe haven asset or inflation hedge. Its price tends to spike in a counter-cyclical fashion to
economic activity.
U- 6 is a measure of unemployment that includes the total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic
reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force.
Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of ten daily and weekly indicators of real economic activity scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate.
Yield-to-Worst is a measure of the lowest possible yield that can be received on a bond that fully operates within the terms of its contract. The yield to worst metric is used to
evaluate the worst-case scenario for yield at the bond’s earliest allowable retirement date, which is either at maturity or earliest call-date.
© 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 33Disclaimer Section Except for the historical information contained herein, certain matters in this report are forward-looking statements or projections that are dependent upon certain risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to, such factors and considerations as general market volatility, global economic and geopolitical impacts, fiscal and monetary policy, liquidity, the level of interest rates, historical sector performance relationships as they relate to the business and economic cycle, consumer preferences, foreign currency exchange rates, litigation risk, competitive positioning, the ability to successfully integrate acquisitions, the ability to develop and commercialize new products and services, legislative risks, the pricing environment for products and services, and compliance with various local, state, and federal health care laws. See latest third party research reports and updates for risks pertaining to a particular security. This summary is based upon financial information and statistical data obtained from sources deemed reliable, but in no way is warranted by Ameriprise Financial, Inc. as to accuracy or completeness. This is not a solicitation by Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC of any order to buy or sell securities. This summary is based exclusively on an analysis of general current market conditions, rather than the appropriateness of a specific proposed securities transaction. We will not advise you as to any change in figures or our views. Ameriprise Financial, Inc. and its affiliates do not offer tax or legal advice. Consumers should consult with their tax advisor or attorney regarding their situation Investment products are not insured by the FDIC, are not deposits of or obligations of or guaranteed by a financial institution, involve investment risks including possible loss of principal, and may fluctuate in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investment advisory products and services are made available through Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Ameriprise Financial Services, LLC. Member FINRA and SIPC. © 2021 Ameriprise Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. 34
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