CLIMATE REVIEW September - October 18, 2020 - DOST
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129th Climate Forum
21 October 2020
CLIMATE REVIEW
September – October 18, 2020
NESTOR R EUGENIO
Weather Specialist I
CAD - CliMPS
Outline
Recent ENSO Conditions
Weather Systems
Climate Assessment
Summary
WEATHER CLIMATE
ENSO SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT
SUMMARY
Recent ENSO Conditions
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
• A large-scale variability resulting from the interactions
between the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific.
YOU
Phases of ENSO:
ARE
HERE
El Niño – unusual warming in the CEEP
La Niña – unusual cooling in the CEEP
Neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña
July 2020 SST Anomaly (deg C) August 2020 SST Anomaly (deg C)
July 2020 SSTA- cooler than average in eastern EP near South August 2020 SSTA- further cooling of sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
America while near to slightly cooler than average in central EP were observed in the eastern equatorial Pacific (-0.5°C - -1.5°C) while
near to slightly warmer than average (0 °C - 1.5 °C) in the central and
September 2020 SST Anomaly (deg C)
western EP.
September 2020 SSTA - negative sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
across the tropical Pacific have strengthened, much cooler SSTs were
observed from the central to the eastern EP (-1.0°C to -1.5 °C).
However, most of the western pacific near the Southeast Asia region
were warmer than average (0.5°C to 1.5 °C) .
http://seacm.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
analysis/sst/2020/6/7/8
WEATHER CLIMATE
ENSO SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT
SUMMARY
ENSO INDICATORS
Oceanic Indicator Atmospheric Indicator
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
MONTHLY SSTA (SEPTEMBER 2018 -
1.5 SEPTEMBER 2020)
1 El Niño
La Nina La Nina
La Nina
0.5
ANOMALY °C
Neutral
Neutral Neutral
Neutral
0
-0.5
-1
La Niña
El Nino El Nino
El Nino
-1.5
DEC-18
DEC-19
FEB-19
APR-19
AUG-19
FEB-20
APR-20
AUG-20
SEP-20
SEP-18
MAR-19
SEP-19
MAR-20
OCT-18
MAY-19
JUL-19
OCT-19
MAY-20
JUL-20
JAN-19
NOV-18
JUN-19
NOV-19
JAN-20
JUN-20
Data Source: Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Data Source: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)
WEATHER CLIMATE
ENSO SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT
SUMMARY
Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook (MCAO)
Issued: 8 September 2020
• Cool El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - neutral condition continues;
• Further cooling of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been observed across the
central to eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP), while atmospheric indicator is now at
La Niña thresholds.
• Most climate models suggest the chance of La Niña forming in 2020 is ~70%
Press Statement: La Niña Alert
Issued: 9 September 2020
• Recent PAGASA’s climate monitoring and analyses suggest that La
Niña may develop in the coming months.
• Most climate models suggest the chance of La Niña forming in
2020 is >70%.
• PAGASA will issue LA NIÑA Advisory in October 2020
WEATHER CLIMATE
ENSO SUMMARY
SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT
PRESS STATEMENT
DOST-PAGASA S & T Media Service
Quezon City, 9 September 2020
LA NIŇA ALERT
Recent PAGASA’s climate monitoring and analyses suggest
that La Niña may develop in the coming months. La Niña
is characterized by unusually cool ocean surface
temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
(CEEP). Since August 2020, further cooling of sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) have been observed across the CEEP,
while atmospheric indicator is now at La Niña thresholds.
Most climate models suggest the chance of La Niña
forming in 2020 is >70%.
WEATHER CLIMATE
ENSO SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT
SUMMARY
Press Statement: La Niña Advisory
Issued: 2 October 2020
• La Niña is present in the tropical Pacific.
• Weak to moderate La Niña will likely to persist until the first quarter of
2021.
• La Niña I associated with above normal rainfall condition across most
areas of the country
• Adverse impacts are likely over the vulnerable areas and sectors
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
WEATHER CLIMATE
ENSO SUMMARY
SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT
Weather Systems that affected
the country from
September - October 18, 2020WEATHER CLIMATE
ENSO SUMMARY
SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT
September October 18,
2020 2020
SOUTHWEST LOCALIZED
MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE
AREAS (HPAs)
LOW PRESSURE
EASTERLIES
AREAS (LPAs) INTER-TROPICAL
CONVERGENCE
ZONE (ITCZ)WEATHER CLIMATE
ENSO SUMMARY
SYSTEMS ASSESSMENT
September October 18,
2020 2020
Tropical Cyclones (6)
SEPTEMBER 2020 TC’s OCTOBER 2020 TC’s
1. TY “KRISTINE” HAISHEN (Sep 4-5) 1. TD “NIKA” NANGKA (Oct 11-12)
2. TS “LEON” NOUL (Sep 16-17) 2. TD “OFEL” (Oct 13-16)
3. TS” MARCE” DOLPHIN(Sep 20-21) 3. TS” PEPITO” DOLPHIN (Oct 19-Present)TC PASSAGE AND ACCUMULATED RAINFALL (September 2020)
Average Track of Tropical Cyclone
TS “Leon” NOUL and SW Monsoon RRTC PASSAGE AND ACCUMULATED RAINFALL (October 1-18, 2020)
Average Track of Tropical CycloneClimate
Assessment
Understanding
our Rainfall Maps
PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION
Less than 40 way below normal
41 – 80 below normal
81 – 120 near normal
Greater than 120 above normal
Percent of Normal = Actual Rainfall x 100%
Normal RainfallActual Rainfall for September 2020 Normal RR(mm) Actual Rainfall (1981-2010) Observed (mm) % Normal
Actual Rainfall for October 1-18, 2020 Normal RR(mm) Actual Rainfall (1981-2010) Observed (mm) % Normal
ACTUAL RAINFALL PER PROVINCE (October 1-18, 2020)
PROVINCE mm %N PROVINCE mm %N
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
ABRA 116.2 47.2 AKLAN 281.3 86.1
BENGUET 124.5 42.1 ANTIQUE 238.6 81.8
IFUGAO 198.7 71.7 CAPIZ 275.5 83.8
KALINGA 203.1 66.7 GUIMARAS 185.3 65.4
APAYAO 162.3 54.8 ILOILO 217.7 78.8
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 195.6 68.9 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 184.4 70.2
REGION I REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
ILOCOS NORTE 69.5 30.6 NEGROS ORIENTAL 147.2 61.4
ILOCOS SUR 100.1 45.6 BOHOL 190.7 95.0
LA UNION 120.1 43.1 CEBU 190.8 85.1
PANGASINAN 160.9 74.3 SIQUIJOR 116.2 55.3
REGION II REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BATANES 66.4 21.9 BILIRAN 246.6 87.7
CAGAYAN 188.4 60.7 EASTERN SAMAR 200.9 66.5
ISABELA 258.3 80.2 LEYTE 206.5 80.0
NUEVA VIZCAYA 223.4 83.8 NORTHERN SAMAR 305.9 94.8
QUIRINO 354.3 103.6 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 243.5 79.5
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SOUTHERN LEYTE 260.8 118.3
BATAAN 222.9 102.3 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
BULACAN 349.4 106.7 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 171.9 72.2
NUEVA ECIJA 285.9 103.4 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 155.6 72.4
PAMPANGA 165.8 74.4 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 158.0 71.3
TARLAC 124.4 84.8 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
ZAMBALES 233.3 113.7 BUKIDNON 198.3 78.3
AURORA 494.7 119.0 CAMIGUIN 192.2 85.8
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION LANAO DEL NORTE 184.6 92.9
METRO MANILA 244.8 87.9 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 181.9 78.7
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) MISAMIS ORIENTAL 183.1 84.4
BATANGAS 335.4 114.4 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
CAVITE 213.6 103.8 COMPOSTELA VALLEY 166.0 82.7
LAGUNA 369.0 105.0 DAVAO CITY 189.4 82.2
RIZAL 354.1 103.8 DAVAO DEL NORTE 172.5 75.6
QUEZON 503.3 110.4 DAVAO DEL SUR 167.5 79.9
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 134.8 71.6
MARINDUQUE 408.0 102.2 DAVAO ORIENTAL 170.5 82.0
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 321.4 103.1 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
ORIENTAL MINDORO 349.8 107.6 SOUTH COTABATO 122.8 69.5
ROMBLON 351.2 108.6 COTABATO 158.1 69.9
PALAWAN 202.7 70.5 SARANGANI 114.4 68.5
REGION V (BICOL) SULTAN KUDARAT 153.5 71.9
ALBAY 278.3 93.2 REGION XIII- CARAGA
CAMARINES NORTE 492.4 106.6 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 154.5 76.6
CAMARINES SUR 323.0 87.0 AGUSAN DEL SUR 176.2 78.5
CATANDUANES 305.4 80.7 DINAGAT ISLANDS 206.9 85.5
MASBATE 261.4 94.1 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 201.9 86.2
SORSOGON 290.6 84.8 SURIGAO DEL SUR 181.6 79.0
ARMM
BASILAN 142.6 71.9
MAGUINDANAO 133.7 57.6
LANAO DEL SUR 183.0 90.5
SULU 143.6 67.4
TAWI-TAWI 150.1 66.7ENSO
WEATHER
SYSTEMS
CLIMATE
ASSESSMENT
SUMMARY Temperature Assessment for September 2020
OBSERVED TEMPERATURE EXTREMES
FOR: The Month of SEPTEMBER 2020
Extremes for the month of SEPTEMBER Station's Extreme Record (SEPTEMBER)
Highest 36.7oC GUIUAN,E.SAMAR (Sep 03) 35.8oC 09-01-2009
o
Lowest 14.5 C BSU La Trinidad Benguet (Sep 10)
For: Metro Manila Station's Extreme Record (SEPTEMBER)
Highest 35.5 oC NAIA,PASAY CITY M. MANILA (Sep 13 ) 35.2oC 09-02-2013
Lowest o o
23.5 C Science Garden, QC (Sep 17) 20.0 C 9-08-1964
HISTORICAL RECORD
For: All Stations Monitored (All Months) For: Metro Manila Stations (All Months)
Highest 42.2 oC Tuguegarao (4-22-1912 & 5-11-1969) 38.6 oC Port Area, Manila (05-17-1915)
o o
Lowest 6.3 C Baguio (1-18-1961) 14.5 C Port Area, Manila (01-11-1914)
FOR: 2020 (JANUARY - SEPTEMBER 2020)
For: All Stations Monitored For: Metro Manila Stations
Highest 39.7oC ISU, Echague, Isabela (Apr 10) 37.2 oC NAIA, Pasay City (Apr 18)
o o
Lowest 9.0 C Baguio City (Jan 29) 19.0 C Science Garden, QC (Jan 16, Feb 6, 14)
Stations that Surpassed Extreme Record (TMAX) September 2020
Stations Observed Date Highest Date Anomaly
CLARK 35.1 20-Sep 34.1 9/10/2007 1.0
TAYABAS,QUEZON 35.5 5-Sep 35.0 9/16/2006 0.5
NAIA,PASAY 35.5 13-Sep 35.2 9/2/2013 0.3
AMBULONG 35.8 14-Sep 35.7 09-14-1984 0.1
TANAY 30.6 28-Sep 29.5 09-01-2008 1.1
SAN JOSE,OCC. 36.0 9-Sep 35.4 09-06-1988 0.6
GUIUAN,E.SAMAR 36.7 3-Sep 35.8 09-01-2009 0.9
PTO.PRINCESA 35.2 14-Sep 34.7 09-05-2000 0.5
COTABATO CITY 36.3 5-Sep 35.4 9/23/2010 0.9ENSO
WEATHER
SYSTEMS
CLIMATE
ASSESSMENT
SUMMARY Temperature Assessment for October 1-18, 2020
Stations that Surpassed Extreme Record (TMAX) October 2020
Stations Observed Date Highest Date Anomaly
CLARK 34.0 5-Sep 33.9 10/31/2003 0.9
GUIUAN,E.SAMAR 35.3 1-Sep 34.5 10-19-1979 0.8September 2020: Highest on record
Averaged as a whole, the September 2020 global land and
ocean surface temperature was the highest for September
in the 141-year record at 0.97°C (1.75°F) above the 20th
century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F).
This value surpassed the previous record set in 2015
and, again in 2016, by only 0.02°C (0.04°F)
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202009SUMMARY
ENSO Alert System Status: LA Niña Advisory
Rainfall Temperature
SEPTEMBER 2020
• Way below to below normal rainfall were Generally near to above average surface air
experienced in most parts of northern and central temperatures were over most parts of the
Luzon and southern Mindanao; country.
• Near to above normal rainfall conditions were
observed in southern Luzon, Visayas and most parts
Mindanao.
3 Tropical Cyclones
• TY “KRISTINE” HAISHEN (Sep 4-5)
• TS “LEON” NOUL (Sep 16-17)
• TS” MARCE” DOLPHIN(Sep 20-21)
.SUMMARY
ENSO Alert System Status: LA Niña Advisory
Rainfall Temperature
OCTOBER 1-19, 2020
• Way below to below normal rainfall were Generally near to above average surface air
experienced in most parts of northern and central temperatures were over most parts of the
Luzon and southern Mindanao; country.
• Near to above normal rainfall conditions were
observed in southern Luzon, Visayas and most parts
Mindanao.
3 Tropical Cyclones
• TD “NIKA” NANGKA (Oct 11-12)
• TD “OFEL” (Oct 13-16)
• TS” PEPITO” DOLPHIN (Oct 19-Present)Website: www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph Facebook: www.facebook.com/pagasa.dost.gov.ph Twitter: @dost_pagasa PAGASA new Number Trunkline: (02) 8284- 0800 Typhoon Climate 927-1541 Local 905/906 Local 805 Flood IEC Local 808 Local 102/103
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