Climate Change Adaptation Plan - for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016 - Goulburn Broken CMA
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Climate Change Adaptation Plan for natural resource management in the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria 2016 An assessment of the vulnerability of the Goulburn Broken Catchment’s natural resources to climate change using spatially-enabled criteria and identification of adaptation and mitigation priorities and management options
2 | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority © Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, 2016 PO Box 1752, Shepparton Vic 3632 Phone: 03 5822 7700 Email: reception@gbcma.vic.gov.au Web: www.gbcma.vic.gov.au ISBN: 978-1-876600-05-1 Contributing authors: Compiled by Melanie Haddow and Kate Brunt (Goulburn Broken CMA) using project reports developed by Craig Clifton and Milos Pelikan (Jacobs), Rod McLennan (Rod McLennan and Associates) and Pat Feehan (Pat Feehan Consulting). Regional Natural Resource Management Planning for Climate Change in the Goulburn Broken Region Project Steering Committee: Carl Walters, Chris Norman, Helen Murdoch, Jenny Wilson, Kate Brunt (Project Manager), Katie Warner, Mark Turner, Melanie Haddow, Simon Casanalia, Steve Wilson (Chair) and Wayne Tennant, Goulburn Broken CMA Chelsea Cherry, Victorian Government Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Gary Deayton, Moira Shire Council, (representing the Goulburn Broken Local Government Biodiversity Reference Group) Peter Wilcock, Australian Government Department of Environment Tracy Taylor/Thomas Brown, Goulburn Broken Greenhouse Alliance Further acknowledgements: For providing expertise to inform the Plan: Milos Pelikan, Craig Clifton, Sarah Heard, Ashlea Davy and David Kelly, Jacobs Mark Cotter, The Catchment Management Company Pat Feehan, Pat Feehan Consulting Rod McLennan, Rod McLennan and Associates Aaron Findlay, Carl Walters, Carla Miles, Helen Murdoch, Jenny Wilson, Kate Brunt, Melanie Haddow, Rachael Spokes, Steve Wilson and Tim Barlow, Goulburn Broken CMA Kate Stothers, Euroa Arboretum Terry Batey and Rebecca Caldwell, Victorian Government Department of Environment and Primary Industries Terry Hunter, Goulburn-Murray Water For collaboration on regional natural resource management planning for climate change: Matthew O’Connell and Alison Skinner, North East CMA Linda Broadhurst, Veronica Doerr and Leanne Webb, CSIRO Paul Ryan, Australian Resilience Centre The Victorian CMAs Natural Resource Management Planning for Climate Change Forum For providing information and communication technology assistance: Peter Geddes, Goulburn Broken CMA Design by Flying Pig Design Photos: front cover (left to right): Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change workshop in Euroa, credit: Melanie Haddow; Revegetation site, credit: GB CMA; Introduction to soil care workshop at Glenaroua, credit: Karen Brisbane. Back cover (left to right): Kinnairds wetland after watering, credit: Jo Wood; Beyond SoilCare project farm tour at Whiteheads, credit: Rhiannon Apted; Irrigation water efficiency works at Yeilma, credit: David Lawler Disclaimer: this publication may be of assistance, but the Goulburn Broken Catchment The Regional NRM Planning for Management Authority and its partners do not guarantee that the publication is without Climate Change in the Goulburn flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purpose and therefore Broken Region project has disclaim all liability for any error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you been supported by Australian relying on any information in this publication. Government funding.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan | 1
Contents 1. Purpose 2
2. Background 3
3. The Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process 4
3.1 Identifying assessment criteria 4
3.2 Development of a spatial assessment tool 5
3.3 Assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation
priority 6
3.4 Development of adaptation options 7
4. Influence of Climate Change on the Condition of the
Catchment’s Natural Resources 9
5. Impact of Climate Change on the Catchment’s Natural
Resources 15
6. Vulnerability of the Catchment’s Natural Resources to Climate
Change 18
7. Focus Areas for Climate Change Adaptation and Management
Options 20
7.1 Agricultural Floodplains Social-ecological System 24
7.2 Productive Plains Social-ecological System 30
7.3 Upland Slopes Social-ecological System 36
7.4 Commuting Hills Social-ecological System 42
7.5 Southern Forests Social-ecological System 48
7.6 Incremental and transformational adaptation 54
7.7 Adaptation pathways 55
8. Climate Change Mitigation 56
8.1 Priority landscapes for carbon farming 56
8.2 Management options for carbon farming 61
9. Implementation: making use of better information 62
10. Adaptive Management Framework 63
10.1 Elements of an adaptive management framework 63
10.2 Adaptive pathways 64
10.3 Risk management procedure 65
11. Evaluation and Improvement 66
11.1 Key evaluation questions 66
Abbreviations 67
References 67
Appendix A: Summary of Communication and
Engagement Activities 69
Appendix B: Exposure Maps 71
Appendix C: Sensitivity Map 72
Appendix D: Adaptive Capacity Map 73
Appendix E: Case study; Planning for multiple futures in the Shepparton
Irrigation Region 74
2 | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority
1. Purpose
This Climate Change Adaptation Figure 1: The relationship between the Goulburn Broken Regional
Plan: Catchment Strategy, sub-strategies and local plans for social-ecological
systems (GB CMA 2013).
a. identifies priority landscapes
for climate change adaptation SUPPORTING SUB-STRATEGIES
and mitigation in the context
People:
of improving the resilience of Community NRM Action Plan 2013-18; INTEGRATION
natural resources; Communications and Marketing Strategy PLANNING
2013; Community Engagement Strategy
b. identifies options for climate and Action Plan 2014-15; Workforce SES Local Plans:
change adaptation and Strategy 2013-18; Workforce Plan and 1. Agricultural
Capability Strategy 2013-18; Occupational Floodplains
mitigation, including carbon Health and Safety Policy Statement 2014-15 2. Productive Plains
sequestration, within focus areas Other: 3. Upland Slopes
and priority landscapes; and Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting 4. Commuting Hills
Strategy 2004; Climate Change Integration
c. identifies risks to catchment 5. Southern Forests
Strategy 2012-15; Organisational
GOULBURN 6. Urban Centres
processes from carbon BROKEN Environmental Footprint Strategy and
REGIONAL Action Plan 2012-14; ICT Strategy 2015-18
sequestration activities and
CATCHMENT
mitigation actions. STRATEGY
2013-19
This Plan contributes to achieving Overarching BIOPHYSICALLY FOCUSED SUB-STRATEGIES
document that
strategic outcomes of the Goulburn outlines the Biodiversity:
Broken Catchment Management long-term vision
Biodiversity Strategy 2010-15
for integrated
Authority’s (CMA’s) Climate Change catchment Land:
Integration Strategy 2012-2015 management Land Health Statement 2012; Invasive Plants and Animals Strategy
2010; Shepparton Irrigation Region (SIR) Catchment Implementation
(GB CMA 2012), a sub-strategy Strategy 1990-2020
of the Goulburn Broken Regional Water:
Catchment Strategy (RCS) 2013 Goulburn Broken Waterway Strategy 2014-2022; Water Quality
Strategy 1996-2016; Goulburn Broken Floodplain Management
-2019 (GB CMA 2013) (see Strategy (interim) 2014-16
figure 1).
This Plan specifically contributes
to the following Climate Change The priorities and management at various spatial scales (see section
Integration Strategy strategic options specifically relate to the 9 for more details).
outcomes and associated goals and Goulburn Broken Catchment,
however, the process for assessing This Plan is not intended to
directions: incorporate all decision-making
vulnerability and identifying
• integrate climate change priorities and management options elements but provides an initial
into Goulburn Broken CMA could inform NRM planning more prioritisation for climate change
programs; broadly. adaptation and mitigation based
on spatially-enabled criteria
• improve understanding of
The adaptation and mitigation for vulnerability and values.
climate change; and
priorities and associated Investigation of the interactions
• build catchment resilience into management options outlined between social-ecological systems
sequestration activities. in this Plan will be considered (SESs) identified in the Goulburn
through the Goulburn Broken Broken RCS, (GB CMA 2013)
This Plan has been developed
CMA’s adaptive management drivers of change and how key
primarily for natural resource
planning processes for integration points of vulnerability to natural
management (NRM) planners into NRM programs and strategies resources may be overcome will
but may inform the work of continue.
researchers and implementers.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan | 3
2. Background
The Goulburn Broken CMA • fewer frosts (high level of • The planning process is
coordinates natural resource confidence) logical, comprehensive and
management (NRM) in the • less rainfall during the cool transparent (see section 3).
Goulburn Broken Catchment, season by 2090 (high level of • Best available information is
Victoria, guided by the Goulburn confidence) used to develop actions (see
Broken RCS. The Goulburn Broken sections 3, 5 and 6) and are
• increased intensity of heavy
CMA develops and coordinates the based on collaboration with
rainfall events (high level of
implementation of the Goulburn government, community and
confidence)
Broken RCS in collaboration other stakeholders (see below).
• a harsher fire-weather climate
with the community, all tiers of
(high level of confidence) The development of this Plan
government, regional authorities
and research and funding • increased evaporation (high has been managed by a multi-
organisations. level of confidence) organisation steering committee
• on an annual and decadal (see Acknowledgements) and
Major challenges for NRM in the has been informed by extensive
basis, natural variability in the
Goulburn Broken Catchment consultation with:
climate system can act to either
include degraded river health,
mask or enhance any long-term
reduced extent and quality of • Goulburn Broken CMA staff
human-induced trend.
native vegetation, reduced water and Board
• snowfall and maximum snow
quality and quantity, dryland and • local, State and
depth will continue to decline
irrigated salinity, loss of biodiversity, Commonwealth government
(high level of confidence).
and pest plant and pest animal representatives
invasion. These challenges are The development of this Plan was • representatives from NRM
all being exacerbated by climate supported by funding from Stream organisations across Victoria
change. 1 of the Australian Government’s and the Murray Basin
Regional Natural Resource • research institutions
Regional climate projections
Management Planning for Climate
developed by the CSIRO for • expert consultants
Change Fund. The Fund was
the Murray Basin (of which the • community and industry
established to improve regional
Goulburn Broken Catchment is representatives.
NRM planning and use of climate
part) indicate that climate change
change science, information and See Appendix A for more detail
will have the following impacts on
scenarios to plan for the impacts on stakeholder and community
the future climate (Timbal et al.
of climate change. This Plan aligns consultation activities.
2015):
with the following principles of the
• average temperatures will Fund (DSEWPaC 2012):
continue to increase in all
• Identify priority landscapes
seasons (very high level of
for carbon plantings (see
confidence)
section 8) and strategies to
• hotter and more frequent hot build landscape integrity
days and longer warm spells and guide adaptation and
(very high level of confidence) mitigation actions (see section
7) to address climate change
impacts on natural ecosystems
(see sections 4, 5 and 6).
4 | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority
3. The Climate Change Adaptation Planning
Process
An assessment of the vulnerability Although there are important 3.1 Identifying assessment
of the Goulburn Broken differences, exposure and criteria
Catchment’s natural resources to sensitivity broadly correspond
Criteria for assessing the
climate change using spatially- with the likelihood and
vulnerability of the Catchment’s
enabled criteria was undertaken consequence components of a
natural resources to climate change
with adaptation and mitigation risk assessment. Vulnerability is
and identifying priorities for
priorities and management options used to highlight locations and
adaptation were identified through
identified using the results of this issues to focus further analysis,
(Clifton and Pelikan 2014):
assessment. Natural resources including risk assessment and
are defined as per the Goulburn management. Multiple criteria • a review of the Goulburn
Broken RCS in the asset categories and spatial data sets can be used Broken CMA’s regional NRM
of land, water and biodiversity (GB to characterise each of the three planning framework to
CMA 2013). main components of a vulnerability understand and assess how
assessment to identify areas which climate change has been
A vulnerability assessment was
may experience greater impact considered;
chosen as it is well suited to spatial
from climate change.
analyses. Risk and vulnerability • an analysis of landscape
are similar, although not identical The vulnerability and adaptation processes that affect the
concepts. Both are widely used priority assessment was undertaken condition of natural resources
in the analysis of climate change in the following five stages: and current management
issues. actions to mitigate adverse
1. Identification of assessment impacts; and
Vulnerability is the degree to criteria
• stakeholder engagement.
which a system is susceptible to, 2. Development of a spatial
and unable to cope with, adverse assessment tool Landscape processes were
effects of climate change. It has represented using the Driver-
3. Assessment of climate change
three main dimensions: exposure Pressure-State-Impact-Response
vulnerability
to changes in climate; sensitivity to (DPSIR) model (see figure 2).
4. Identification of focus areas for
such changes; and the capacity of The DPSIR analyses characterise
adaptation
a system to adapt to them. landscape interactions that
5. Development of adaptation influence the condition and value
Risk is the effect of uncertainty management options. of natural resources that may, in
on objectives and is assessed by
turn, be influenced by climate
considering the consequence of an
change. The DPSIR analyses
event and its likelihood.
include detail that seeks to explain
the interconnection between
the Driver, Pressure, State and
Impact elements and document
assumptions about the interactions
and influence of specific factors.
The model is not intended to
represent the actual biophysical
or ecological processes by which
those interactions occur.
Climate Change Adaptation Plan | 5
Figure 2: The DPSIR model (Clifton and Pelikan 2014) The Tool assists NRM planners
to develop scenarios of climate
change impact based on spatial
Drivers (D)
data and to incorporate any
Climate change and other forcing factors that create
relevant local knowledge. Criteria
pressure on a natural resource asset or system
can be weighted to assign higher
importance to certain criteria over
others with specific criteria and/
Pressures (P)
or criteria weighting able to be
Climatic and other stressors influencing the
changed between scenario runs,
condition of a natural resource asset or system
providing flexibility to customise
inputs (Kelly and Davy 2014).
State (S) The Tool is not an end in itself, but
Condition of the natural resource asset or system
Responses (R) instead is a means to help NRM
Managment planners and decision-makers
actions taken to understand their complex
Impacts (I) to avoid or
planning and decision-making
Effect of the natural resource asset or system’s reduce risk
state on its capacity to meet community of unwanted environment. The Tool is not for
expectations or objectives impacts operational or every-day use, but
can be used at strategic points in
NRM planning cycles. It can also
be updated as new information
Social, technical, environmental, The DPSIR also accounts for the becomes available. The Tool runs
economic, political and legal influence of climate change, based assessments for the whole of the
aspects considered for Drivers and on mid-century climate change Goulburn Broken Catchment but
Pressures were identified from projections under a relatively high users can extract subsets of this
documented threats to natural emissions pathway, and identified data and analyse them using GIS.
resources. Characteristics of the responses that are specific to
current State (or condition) of climate change. This enabled a The Tool’s data library contains
natural resources was documented broad assessment of how climate spatial information that represents
as were the likely Impacts on change may influence landscape the vulnerability and priority
natural resource values or services. processes and the State (or assessment criteria. The Tool has
Types of management actions condition) and value of natural the capacity to include additional
(Responses) specified in the resources. criteria and associated data. The
planning framework were matched actual number of criteria and data
at the appropriate point(s) in the sets deployed to inform this Plan
D-P-S-I chain. reflects the available information,
3.2 Development of a
difficulty to create or represent
The DPSIR analyses also include
spatial assessment tool
criteria spatially and the project
assessments of the magnitude A Spatial Assessment Tool was budget.
(local-regional scale) and trend developed to help identify
(improvement/decline) of influence landscapes within the Goulburn
of Drivers and Pressures on the Broken Catchment that are
State of natural resources. The vulnerable to climate change to
recent historical trend in State assist in focusing adaptation. The
and Impact was also assessed. Tool can also help identify priority
Responses were classified in terms landscapes for carbon farming
of their influence on the State of activities (mitigation).
natural resources.
6 | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority
3.3 Assessment of climate The regional NRM planning The Tool uses a single climate
change vulnerability and framework review and, particularly, change scenario in each ‘run’ to
adaptation priority the DPSIR analyses, were used, in incorporate a specific time period,
consultation with regional NRM greenhouse gas emissions trajectory
The assessment of the vulnerability planning stakeholders, to identify and/or global climate model (or
of the Catchment’s natural a set of criteria that informed ensemble of models) output.
resources to climate change and assessments of exposure, sensitivity, Climate scenarios are reflected
adaptation priority reflects four adaptive capacity and value. Factors in the exposure component of
main attributes (see figure 3): considered in selecting criteria the vulnerability assessment. The
1. Exposure: the extent to which include: vulnerability assessment was
a system or entity experiences undertaken for the following three
climatic conditions that may • Materiality: the extent to
climate change scenarios (Timbal et
cause damage or alter landscape which the criterion reflects a
al. 2015) using a criteria weighting
or ecological processes. significant (or material) form
scheme developed in consultation
of sensitivity to climate change
2. Sensitivity: the extent to which with regional NRM planning
to which natural resources
exposure to climate change stakeholders.
and landscape processes are
results in damage or disruption
sensitive. 1. Low climate change: warmer
to landscape, ecological or
• Differentiation: the extent to (0.5-1.5°C increase in annual
socio-economic processes.
which values of the criterion average temperature), with
3. Adaptive capacity: the extent little change in annual average
and/or its influence on natural
to which a system or entity is rainfall (-5 to +5% change).
resource assets, SES and
able to anticipate and adjust to This scenario is based on 2030
landscape processes vary
climate change. outputs for the ACCESS 1.0
across space.
4. Value: incorporating global climate model under the
• Data availability: the availability
environmental, social and Representative Concentration
of spatial data to represent the
economic value of wetlands Pathways (RCP) 4.5 emissions
criterion or of data from which
and streams, strategic values pathway.
the criterion may be derived.
associated with native
vegetation, consequence of loss • Confidence: the level of
for economic infrastructure, confidence that the criterion
economic production and will influence vulnerability.
environmental values, financial
and economic value of land
and presence of drought refuge
habitats.
Figure 3: The climate change adaptation prioritisation framework (adapted from Schröter undated by Clifton and
Pelikan 2014).
Exposure
Impact
Sensitivity Vulnerability
Adaptive Capacity Adaptation Priority
Value
Climate Change Adaptation Plan | 7
2. Moderate climate change: 3.4 Development of 2. Who or what adapts?
hotter (1.5-3.0°C increase in adaptation options The Tool data set was interrogated
annual average temperature) to determine the main values
and drier (5-15% reduction in The process for conceptualising and
responsible for the focus area
annual average rainfall). This evaluating adaptation options was
being identified. The components
scenario is based on 2050 adapted from Smit et al. (2000)
of the natural resource system that
outputs for the GFDL ESM2M by Clifton and Pelikan (2014). The
underpin those values should be
global climate model under the process draws on data outputs from
addressed by adaptation actions.
RCP 4.5 emissions pathway. the Tool as well as the regional NRM
Components may include people
planning framework review and
and infrastructure, as well as natural
3. High climate change: much considers five questions:
assets such as land, water and
hotter (>3.0°C increase in
1. Adaptation to what? biodiversity.
annual average temperature)
and much drier (>15% While climate change poses a 3. How are pressures and
reduction in annual average significant risk for many of the impacts currently being
rainfall). This scenario is based natural systems managed by managed?
on 2070 outputs for the GFDL the Goulburn Broken CMA and
The Goulburn Broken CMA and
ESM2M global climate model its stakeholders, those systems’
its stakeholders are typically aware
under the RCP 8.5 emissions current state and the resulting
of the pressures faced by natural
pathway. impacts largely reflect the influence
resources and systems and have
of other drivers and pressures.
Data representing the scenarios was well-developed responses to these
For adaptations to be taken up
provided by CSIRO under its Climate pressures or the changes in state or
and successfully implemented,
Change Projections for Australia’s impacts they have contributed to.
they need to be incorporated into
Natural Resource Management Many of these also help to build
responses that address climate-
Regions project (Timbal et al. 2015), resilience to climate change. The
related and non-climate-related
based on modelling undertaken for DPSIR analyses were interrogated
influences. In some instances, an
the Fifth Assessment Report of the to identify how pressures and
adaptation’s main influence will
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate impacts, including those potentially
be to build resilience by reducing
Change (2013). emerging as a result of climate
the effects of non-climate-related
change, are currently being
The overall scoring for vulnerability pressures.
managed.
and value criteria was used to This question is addressed with
identify two forms of priorities: reference to two main sources of 4. How effective are these
those for planned adaptation information: responses anticipated to be?
and those for semi-autonomous A high level assessment is made
• Tool outputs: the data set
adaptation. Planned adaptation of the effectiveness of existing
was interrogated using
focuses on areas of high value planned adaptations at managing
GIS to identify the main
and high vulnerability and the current suite of pressures
exposure, sensitivity and
should be considered first when and impacts and those which are
adaptive capacity criteria
developing and implementing anticipated to emerge as a result
that are contributing to the
management programs to mitigate of climate change. This analysis
vulnerability score.
vulnerability to climate change. indicated whether natural resources
Semi-autonomous adaptation • DPSIR analyses: the analyses and systems are likely to be climate
areas have high value but lower were used to identify the resilient without further adaptation.
vulnerability under current tenure broader set of drivers and
and management. pressures (climate and non-
climate related) that influence
on the state of natural
resources to which adaptations
are required to respond.
8 | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority
5. What additional options • Reduce the risk: Either the use
could be considered? of natural resources is changed
The final step considered what new to lessen or avoid impacts from
measures could be undertaken climate change (e.g. changing
to develop or strengthen climate from irrigation to dryland
resilience of natural resources in agriculture or vice versa) or
the respective focus area. Options the use is shifted to another
are considered in the following location where there is less or
categories (after Willows and no exposure to the relevant
Connell, 2003) to encourage climate change risk.
consideration of the full spectrum • Build adaptive capacity:
of climate change response Research is undertaken
opportunities. The DPSIR analyses to better understand and
have been considered where respond to risks from climate
they specify new or additional change and/or education and
adaptation options for climate- behavioural change programs
related drivers and pressures. are implemented to improve
various key stakeholder
• Modify the events: Actions
groups’ understanding of
are undertaken to reduce the
climate change and encourage
exposure of natural resources
appropriate adaptive responses
to climate events that may
on their part. Planning,
affect their condition. Provision
regulatory or institutional
of environmental flows or
options under ‘respond to the
irrigation are examples of this
effects’ may also contribute to
type of adaptation to drought.
the development of adaptive
Planned burning is an example
capacity.
of this type of adaptation to
bushfires.
• Respond to the effects: Actions
are undertaken to either
protect against or reduce
the sensitivity of the natural
resources to climate change.
These types of adaptation may
include physical measures (e.g.
construction of structures to
provide environmental water),
changes in operational or
management practice (e.g.
stubble retention to increase
soil moisture retention and
reduce drought sensitivity) and
changes to planning, regulatory
or institutional arrangements.Climate Change Adaptation Plan | 9
4. Influence of Climate Change on the Condition of
the Catchment’s Natural Resources
Information from the regional relatively high emissions pathway. The DPSIR analyses are based on
NRM planning framework review Some pressures have a high level assumptions informed by expert
(see section 3.1) and stakeholder of influence only under climate consultants and regional NRM
engagement has been used to change. planners. These assumptions
describe the influence of climate and the assessment criteria they
The full DPSIR analyses (Clifton and
change on each of the three inform will be updated as new
Heard 2013, available from http://
regional natural resource classes information becomes available as
weconnect.gbcma.vic.gov.au/)
identified in the Goulburn Broken per the Goulburn Broken CMA’s
identify links between Drivers and
RCS. Tables 1, 2 and 3 (below) Monitoring, Evaluation and
Pressures, States and Pressures and
summarise information from Reporting Strategy (under review).
Impacts and States. As the Drivers
the DPSIR analyses (Clifton and
and Pressures listed in table 2 all
Pelikan 2014) (see section 3.1),
have a high level of influence on
outlining the drivers and pressures
the condition of natural resources,
with a high influence on natural
all the drivers have an influence on
resource condition and the trend
all of the pressures to some degree
that influence will experience
which is why direct links have not
under climate change based on
been articulated here.
mid-century projections under a
Table 1: Summary of drivers and pressures with a high influence on the condition of land resources in the
Goulburn Broken Catchment and the trend of influence under climate change
Land: soil and land that is used for purposes other than nature conservation, including
dryland and irrigation farming, timber production and urban and lifestyle uses
STRONGEST TREND OF INFLUENCE
DRIVERS OF ON CONDITION UNDER
CONDITION CLIMATE CHANGE DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS
Water Increasing Changing land use values interact with land use and management practice
availability change as a driver. While this is not always the case, it often results
and policy in increased value on biodiversity compared with production and has
reform contributed to private and public land conservation of biodiversity assets. As
climate change adds to pressure on biodiversity condition, this may increase
trade-offs between biodiversity and production.
Climate Increasing Climate has a strong and pervasive influence on land condition via
variability and precipitation and temperature patterns and their influence on land health
change and primary production. Direction of influence depends on climate phases,
but overall assumed to be neither detrimental nor beneficial under historical
conditions. Climate change is likely to have an overall detrimental influence
on land condition.10 | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority
STRONGEST TREND OF INFLUENCE
DRIVERS OF ON CONDITION UNDER
CONDITION CLIMATE CHANGE DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS
Demographic No change to current Demographic change is reflected in changes in age and density of population,
change level of influence as well as education, employment status and entrance of lifestyle landholders.
Demographic change is not clearly influencing land condition in a particular
direction, as expectations of land management/focus on stewardship and
environmental values vary widely. Not clear how climate change would
directly modify influence on land condition.
Land use and Increasing Much of the influence is a legacy, reflecting historical change in land use to
management agriculture and development of water resources for irrigation. Land use and
change management continues to change in the Catchment, with intensification
(following irrigation system modernisation), neglect or improved
management. Overall, land use and management change is considered to
currently have neutral influence, reflecting the balance of positive changes
(e.g. improved management of soil health issues in farming areas) and
negative changes (e.g. neglect of land in some lifestyle areas). Climate change
may lead to a more negative influence on land condition, reflecting impact of
temperature and increased drought.
STRONGEST TREND OF INFLUENCE
PRESSURES ON ON CONDITION UNDER
CONDITION CLIMATE CHANGE DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS
Change in fire Increasing Key pressure on land state in public land areas. Severe fire weather is
regimes and projected to increase with climate change, potentially placing further pressure
management on land condition.
Cultivation/ Increasing Legacy and ongoing effect of cropping and grazing on various measures
cropping/ of soil and land health. Improved practice in recent years is likely to
grazing reduce negative influence on condition rather than improve it (overall).
Intensification of drought and extreme rainfall with climate change is likely to
exacerbate influence on land condition.
Extreme Increasing Extreme weather, especially fire, flood and drought, continue to adversely
weather & affect land assets. Climate change is likely to increase adverse effects of fire
climate events and drought and may reduce flooding incidence.
(drought, fire,
flood)
Invasive plants Increasing Invasive species reduce agricultural productivity and, in some cases, expose
and animals soils to erosion (e.g. cape weed on ridges). Climate change may enable the
and disease introduction of new species and with more severe, extreme rainfall events,
may exacerbate effects on land condition.
Irrigation and Decreasing Legacy and ongoing effect of irrigation development and practice and dryland
dryland salinity, clearing, although the effects diminished in recent years compared to the
high water 1980s and 1990s. With reduced rainfall under climate change, influence on
tables land condition is likely to diminish further.
Irrigation - Decreasing Much of the influence on land condition is a historical legacy of elevated
regulation, water tables and irrigation salinity. Effects of these on land condition have
drainage, diminished in recent years and are anticipated to continue to do so with
diversion and climate change.
storages
Change in Influence high only Land asset condition (e.g. erosion, agricultural production, salinity, soil carbon)
rainfall regime under climate change tightly linked to rainfall. Changes will be pervasive across the Catchment and
scenario generally detrimental, although climate change is anticipated to further abate
salinity issues.Climate Change Adaptation Plan | 11
Table 2: Summary of drivers and pressures with a high influence on the condition of water resources in the
Goulburn Broken Catchment and the trend of influence under climate change.
Water: Waterways, floodplains, wetlands and groundwater aquifers and water used
for consumptive and environmental uses
STRONGEST TREND OF INFLUENCE
DRIVERS OF ON CONDITION UNDER
CONDITION CLIMATE CHANGE DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS
Water Increasing Currently a positive influence on the condition of water assets as policy
availability and reform and water availability has recently provided for improved balance
policy reform between environmental and consumptive water uses. With reduced
rainfall under climate change, competition between environmental and
consumptive water uses is likely to increase and water availability for
environmental flows likely to reduce, leading to detrimental influence on
the condition of water assets.
Climate Increasing Climate has a strong and pervasive influence on the condition of water
variability and assets via precipitation patterns and their influence on stream flows and
change water-dependent ecosystem processes. Climate influence is also expressed
in terms of water temperature. Direction of influence depends on climate
phases, but overall assumed to be neither detrimental nor beneficial
under historical conditions. Climate change is likely to have an overall
detrimental influence on the condition of water assets.
Land use and No change to current Much of the influence is a legacy, reflecting historical change in land use
management level of influence to agriculture and development of water resources for irrigation. Land use
change and management continues to change in many areas, with intensification
(following irrigation system modernisation), neglect or improved
management. Proliferation of farm dams affects water flows in lifestyle
land use zones. Overall, considered to currently have a neutral influence,
reflecting the balance of positive changes (e.g. improved management of
sources of nutrient and sediment) and negative changes (e.g. farm dam
proliferation). Climate change unlikely to directly modify influence on
condition.12 | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority
STRONGEST TREND OF INFLUENCE
PRESSURES ON ON CONDITION UNDER
CONDITION CLIMATE CHANGE DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS
Change in fire Increasing Key pressure on long-term water flows and shorter term water quality from
regimes and wet eucalypt forests in key catchment areas (trend for excessive frequency in
management recent years). Severe fire weather projected to increase with climate change,
potentially placing further pressure on water resources.
Extreme Increasing Extreme weather, especially fire and drought, continues to adversely affect
weather & water assets. Flooding has a generally positive influence on the condition
climate events of riparian, wetland and aquatic ecosystems. Climate change projected
(drought, fire, to increase adverse effects of fire and drought and may reduce flooding
flood) incidence.
Infrastructure Increasing Legacy and on-going impact of irrigation and water infrastructure, as well
development as flood levees on flows, flooding into floodplain forests and movement of
aquatic fauna. With less flow under climate change, influence on condition
is likely to worsen.
Invasive plants Increasing Invasive species compete with, displace, damage or prey on native flora and
and animals fauna, reducing populations and affecting recruitment in water-dependent
ecosystems. Climate change may enable introduction of new pests.
Irrigation - Increasing Much of the influence on condition is a historical legacy of changes in flow
regulation, and water regimes. While NRM programs are seeking to reduce the negative
drainage, influence, this pressure still contributes to a negative trend in condition.
diversion and Climate change will reduce water resource availability and likely increase
storages detrimental impacts on condition.
Change in Influence high only Water asset condition is tightly linked to rainfall, in terms of flows and water
rainfall and under climate change quality. Changes will be pervasive across the Catchment and water asset
run-off regime scenario types and generally detrimental, because drier climate overall, increased
drought incidence and intensity and increase in intensity of extreme rainfall
events.
Increased Influence high only Aquatic ecosystems and incidence of blue green algal blooms is influenced
temperature under climate change by water temperature. Changes will be pervasive across the Catchment for
scenario aquatic ecosystems and water quality and will generally be detrimental.Climate Change Adaptation Plan | 13
Table 3: Summary of drivers and pressures with a high influence on the condition of biodiversity resources in the
Goulburn Broken Catchment and the trend of influence under climate change.
Biodiversity: native vegetation communities, wetlands and waterways and
associated plants, fungi, animals, microbes and genetic diversity they contain
STRONGEST TREND OF INFLUENCE
DRIVERS OF ON CONDITION UNDER
CONDITION CLIMATE CHANGE DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS
Changing land No change to current Changing land use values interact with land use and management practice
use values level of influence change as a driver. While this is not always the case, it has often resulted
in increased value on biodiversity compared with production and has
contributed to private and public land conservation of biodiversity assets.
As climate change adds to pressure on biodiversity condition, this may drive
stronger protections (or other interventions) for key biodiversity assets.
Water Increasing Currently a positive influence on the condition of biodiversity as has recently
availability and provided improved balance of environmental and consumptive water
policy reform uses. With reduced rainfall under climate change, competition between
environmental and consumptive water uses is likely to increase and water
availability for environmental flows likely to reduce, leading to a detrimental
influence on biodiversity condition.
Climate Increasing Climate has a strong and pervasive influence on biodiversity condition via
variability and climate-dependent ecosystem processes. Direction of influence depends
change on climate phases, but overall is assumed to be neither detrimental nor
beneficial. Climate change is likely to have an overall detrimental influence
on biodiversity condition.
Land use and No change to current Much of the influence is a legacy, reflecting historical changes in land
management level of influence use to agriculture and development of water resources. Land use and
change management continues to change with intensification, neglect or improved
management. Overall, considered to have negative influence on condition
as biodiversity assets continue to decline. Climate change unlikely to directly
modify influence on biodiversity condition.
STRONGEST TREND OF INFLUENCE
PRESSURES ON ON CONDITION UNDER
CONDITION CLIMATE CHANGE DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS
Change in fire Increasing Key pressure on terrestrial ecosystems in forest and alpine areas (trend for
regime and excessive frequency) and rural land (trend for insufficient fire). Severe fire
management weather to increase with climate change, placing (especially) biodiversity in
fire-sensitive systems in public land areas at risk.
Cultivation/ No change to current Much of the influence on condition is from historical activity, although,
cropping/ level of influence extension of cultivation to new areas (with changing technology and
grazing economics) and ongoing grazing is affecting native vegetation remnants in
rural areas. No direct modification of influence on condition with climate
change.14 | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority
STRONGEST TREND OF INFLUENCE
PRESSURES ON ON CONDITION UNDER
CONDITION CLIMATE CHANGE DESCRIPTION OF ASSUMPTIONS
Extreme Increasing Extreme weather, especially fire and drought, adversely affects biodiversity in
weather and remnant native vegetation in rural areas and forests on public land. Flooding
climate events generally has a positive influence on condition of riparian, wetland and
aquatic ecosystems. Climate change to increase adverse effects of fire and
drought and may reduce flooding incidence.
Invasive plants Increasing Invasive species compete with, displace, damage or prey on native flora and
and animals fauna, reducing population and affecting recruitment. Climate change may
enable the introduction of new invasive species.
Irrigation – Increasing Much of the influence on condition is a historical legacy of changes in flow
regulation, and water regimes. While NRM programs are seeking to reduce negative
drainage, influence, this pressure still contributes to a negative trend in biodiversity
diversion and condition. Climate change will reduce water resource availability and likely
storages increase detrimental impact on biodiversity condition.
Change in Influence high only under Ecosystem processes tightly linked to rainfall. Changes will be pervasive
rainfall regime climate change scenario across the Catchment in all ecosystem types and generally detrimental
because drier climate overall and increased drought incidence and intensity
under climate change.
Increased Influence high only under Ecosystem processes are linked to temperature and fire (influenced by
temperature climate change scenario temperature). Changes will be pervasive across the Catchment for terrestrial
and aquatic ecosystems and generally detrimental.Climate Change Adaptation Plan | 15
5. Impact of Climate Change on the Catchment’s
Natural Resources
The combination of exposure Figure 4: Climate change impact assessment framework (adapted from
and sensitivity to climate change Schröter undated by Clifton and Pelikan 2014).
reflects the potential impact of
climate change on the Goulburn
Broken Catchment’s natural Exposure
resources (as per figure 4). See Impact
figure 5, 6 and 7 for results of the
Sensitivity
impact assessment. The criteria
used for the impact assessment are
outlined in table 4 (exposure) and
table 5 (sensitivity).
Table 4: Exposure assessment criteria with rationale (Clifton and Pelikan 2014)
WEIGHTING EXPOSURE CRITERION CRITERION RATIONALE
1 Maximum Temperature influences landscape processes that are important to all natural
temperature: change resource classes and social-ecological systems. Maximum temperatures influence
in annual average processes including water balance, fire and senescence in some winter-growing
agricultural species. The annual average rather than the seasonal average was
selected due to it being able to broadly represent the suite of climate change-
related temperature impacts across a year.
2 Average rainfall: Rainfall is a critical influence on landscape processes across natural resource
Change in average classes and social-ecological systems and is a key expression of exposure to
spring rainfall climate change. River flows and farming systems, particularly, were considered
to be much more sensitive to changes in autumn and/or spring rainfall than
3 Average rainfall:
changes in annual average rainfall. Climate change is also projected to lead to
Change in average
changes in seasonal distribution of rainfall, with more change during winter and
autumn rainfall
spring than at other times of year.
3 Surface water yields: Mean annual flow integrates impacts of changes in rainfall regime (amount,
change in mean seasonality and variability), as well as temperature and potential evaporation. It
annual flow is a key expression of exposure to climate change for water resources (including
irrigation farming and towns). Change in mean annual flow is more relevant to
agricultural water uses in irrigation regions than for other irrigation users and the
environment. However, it is the only readily available data set that incorporates
climate change projections.
4 Waterlogging and Shallow aquifer depth to water table is a key pressure for natural resources in
salinity: current the Shepparton Irrigation Region and to a lesser extent in other irrigation areas
shallow aquifer depth and parts of the dryland. Shallow water tables are also important in sustaining
to water table groundwater-dependent ecosystems, which may be important drought refuges
for native fauna.
Note: Only current conditions can be used as there is no other consistent data set
available for the whole of the Goulburn Broken Catchment.16 | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority
WEIGHTING EXPOSURE CRITERION CRITERION RATIONALE
5 Flooding: area Flooding is a critical influence on ecological processes in rivers, wetlands
currently inundated and floodplains and also poses an important climate-related hazard for built
in 1 per cent annual infrastructure and some land uses. The current 1 per cent annual exceedance
exceedance probability probability event is a good guide to flood extent under climate change, although
event it is likely that floods in the current 1 per cent annual exceedance probability area
may increase in frequency. Recent flood studies have not necessarily considered
climate change and hence only current flood extent can be considered
consistently across the region.
5 Minimum Temperature influences landscape processes that are important to all natural
temperature: change resource classes and SESs. Minimum temperatures influence, for example, snow
in annual average incidence and persistence and flowering patterns in agricultural and native
species. The annual average rather than the seasonal average was selected
due to it being able to broadly represent the suite of climate change-related
temperature impacts across a year.
Table 5: Sensitivity assessment criteria with rationale (Clifton and Pelikan 2014)
WEIGHTING EXPOSURE CRITERION CRITERION RATIONALE
1 Habitat condition: The condition of native vegetation, particularly in terms of the level of
native vegetation fragmentation and disturbance, and its connectivity to large, contiguous areas
fragmentation or is considered to strongly influence its vulnerability to a variety of pressures,
connectivity including those arising from, or exacerbated by, climate change. These are critical
sensitivity issues for terrestrial biodiversity and riparian and wetland vegetation.
1 Habitat condition:
native vegetation
condition
2 River health: index This is a measure of the condition of riparian vegetation and hence a key
of stream condition indicator of river health and the sensitivity of rivers to various pressures,
streamside zone including climate change. As this criterion incorporates vegetation condition and
connectivity, it partly duplicates the habitat condition criteria.
3 Rarity: native Ecological vegetation class bioregional conservation status was the data set used
vegetation range to represent this criterion, highlighting ecological vegetation classes that have a
under current restricted distribution. These are considered to be vulnerable to climate change
conditions because:
• they have a naturally small range and may therefore be adapted to quite
specific climatic conditions that may no longer exist at their current locations
as a result of climate change.
• clearing and other disturbances have modified their natural range and hence
they are likely to be subject to a variety of other environmental pressures and
hence most likely less resilient to climate change.
3 Land use: current land Land use was classified according to sensitivity to various impacts of climate
use change. Data illustrates the variable nature of sensitivity to climate change.
3 Land and soil health Several topography and landform criteria have been included in this criterion,
hazards such as slope and susceptibility to various soil health hazards (e.g. acidity, salinity,
erosion). This highlights sensitivity to climate change from a land and soil health
perspective.
4 Wetland health: The intention was to incorporate a measure of the hydrologic regime
proximity to wetlands experienced by wetlands and hence their health from index of wetland condition
datasets. However, there is insufficient data to represent the criterion across
the Catchment. Proximity to wetlands is used as a surrogate, on the basis that
wetlands are sensitive locations due to their dependence on strongly climate-
influenced factors such as river flows and/or water tables.Climate Change Adaptation Plan | 17
Figure 5: Impact of climate change on the Goulburn Figure 6: Impact of climate change on the Goulburn
Broken Catchment’s natural resources in scenario 2030. Broken Catchment’s natural resources in scenario 2050.
Cobram Cobram
Yarrawonga Yarrawonga
Nathalia Nathalia
Numurkah Numurkah
Kyabram Kyabram
Shepparton Shepparton
Tatura Tatura
Benalla Benalla
Rushworth Rushworth
Euroa Euroa
Nagambie Nagambie
Seymour Mansfield Seymour Mansfield
Mt Buller Mt Buller
Alexandra Alexandra
Broadford Yea Broadford Yea
Kilmore Jamieson Kilmore Jamieson
Marysville Marysville
Scenario 2030 Woods Point Scenario 2050 Woods Point
RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5
Low change: warmer Moderate change:
with little change in rainfal hotter and drier
Figure 7: Impact of climate change on the Goulburn
Broken Catchment’s natural resources in scenario 2070.
Potential Impact
Cobram Very Low
Yarrawonga
Nathalia Low
Numurkah
Medium
0 20 40
Kyabram High
Shepparton
Tatura
Very High Kilometres
Benalla
Rushworth
Euroa
Nagambie Please note: These maps are not intended to incorporate all
decision-making elements but represent an assessment of climate
change impact based on spatially-enabled criteria for exposure
and sensitivity as part of a climate change vulnerability assessment.
Seymour Mansfield Vulnerability is used to highlight locations and issues to focus
further analysis, including risk assessment and management. These
Mt Buller
Alexandra maps should be considered in conjunction with the Climate Change
Broadford Yea
Adaptation Plan for Natural Resource Management in the Goulburn
Kilmore Jamieson Broken Catchment, Victoria, 2016 in its entirety.
Scenario 2070
Marysville
Maps showing the exposure and sensitivity
Woods Point
RCP 8.5 assessment results independently can be found in
High change: much
hotter and much drier Appendix B and C respectively.18 | Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority
6. Vulnerability of the Catchment’s Natural
Resources to Climate Change
The vulnerability assessment is a Figure 8: Vulnerability assessment framework (adapted from Schröter
combination of the impacts and undated by Clifton and Pelikan 2014).
adaptive capacity assessment (see
figure 8). See figure 9, 10 and 11 Impact
for the results of this assessment.
Vulnerability
Table 6 outlines the criteria used to
Adaptive Capacity
assess adaptive capacity.
Table 6: Adaptive capacity assessment criteria with rationale (Clifton and Pelikan 2014).
WEIGHTING EXPOSURE CRITERION CRITERION RATIONALE
1 Biodiversity and The tenure of private and public land is classified in a way that indicates
river health: level of its likely exposure to pressures for disturbances, such as grazing,
protection provided cultivation and timber harvesting. It is therefore considered indicative of
by tenure adaptive capacity. Protective private land tenures include areas subject to
management agreements and conservation covenants. Public land tenure
looks at 64 tenure categories derived from the Public Land Management
dataset.
2 Irrigation farming: Access to irrigation water supply is considered to be a key measure
access to irrigation of adaptive capacity for agricultural land uses, as (in regulated water
supply catchments) it reduces dependency on annual rainfalls.
3 Natural resource Previous engagement with NRM programs is considered to be a measure
management works of planned adaptive capacity. All forms of NRM program works are
considered, including, for example, fencing, revegetation, and waterway
rehabilitation.
4 Land: whole farm or Whole farm or property planning is widely used to establish a framework
property planning for improved and sustainable management of farming operations in
dryland and irrigation areas. It typically leads to other environmental works,
including improvements in irrigation layout and drainage and protection
and enhancement of environmental assets.
As outlined, the vulnerability assessment maps reflects criteria for impacts (exposure and sensitivity) (see section
5) and adaptive capacity (see above).
See Appendix D for a map showing the independent results of the assessment of current (from the year 2014)
adaptive capacity of the Catchment’s natural resources to climate change. Please note that ongoing investment
in management actions will be required to maintain and increase adaptive capacity as climatic conditions change
over time (see section 7.5 and 7.6).Climate Change Adaptation Plan | 19
Figure 9: Vulnerability of the Goulburn Broken Catchment’s Figure 10: Vulnerability of the Goulburn Broken Catchment’s
natural assets to climate change in scenario 2030 natural assets to climate change in scenario 2050
Cobram Cobram
Yarrawonga Yarrawonga
Nathalia Nathalia
Numurkah Numurkah
Kyabram Kyabram
Shepparton Shepparton
Tatura Tatura
Benalla Benalla
Rushworth Rushworth
Euroa Euroa
Nagambie Nagambie
Seymour Mansfield Seymour Mansfield
Mt Buller Mt Buller
Alexandra Alexandra
Broadford Yea Broadford Yea
Kilmore Jamieson Kilmore Jamieson
Marysville Marysville
Scenario 2030 Woods Point Scenario 2050 Woods Point
RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5
Low change: warmer Moderate change:
with little change in rainfall hotter and drier
Figure 11: Vulnerability of the Goulburn Broken Catchment’s
natural assets to climate change in scenario 2070
Cobram
Yarrawonga
Nathalia
Numurkah
Vulnerability
Kyabram
Shepparton Very Low
Tatura
Benalla
Low
Rushworth
Medium
Euroa
0 20 40
Nagambie
High
Very High Kilometres
Seymour Mansfield
Mt Buller
Alexandra
Broadford Yea Please note: These maps are not intended to incorporate all
Jamieson
decision-making elements but represent an assessment of climate
Kilmore
change impact based on spatially-enabled criteria for exposure
and sensitivity as part of a climate change vulnerability assessment.
Marysville
Vulnerability is used to highlight locations and issues to focus
Scenario 2070 Woods Point
further analysis, including risk assessment and management. These
maps should be considered in conjunction with the Climate Change
RCP 8.5
Adaptation Plan for Natural Resource Management in the Goulburn
High change: much
Broken Catchment, Victoria, 2016 in its entirety.
hotter and much drierYou can also read
